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Green94

Baseball Wagering

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The Brewers over 80.5 wins is...

Money in the bank

Ben Sheets = DL to start the season

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The Brewers over 80.5 wins is...

Money in the bank

Ben Sheets = DL to start the season

Doesn't matter. Capuano, Davis, and Bush! Sheets'll come along just in time for the second half push.

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just booked first MLB play of the new season: :banned:

TB +115: No way is R. Lopez a top AL pitcher, but Kazmir might be - let the dogs rule! This system was great the first month of last year before being so-so the rest of the way.

hey Roarin Soarin - any chance of getting the dog system page up and running? What a great resource!

GLTA

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:banned::banned::banned::banned::banned::banned:

OPENING DAY TOMORROW!!!

And you guys know where I'm leaning

Mark Buerhle -120

Time to defend the title :thumbup::popcorn:

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I know nothing about MLB anymore, and find it boring as hell, but see this has many opps for scrilla to be made. I look forward to blindly following some of you, so please win.

Thanks in advance. :D

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I know nothing about MLB anymore, and find it boring as hell, but see this has many opps for scrilla to be made. I look forward to blindly following some of you, so please win.

Thanks in advance. :D

:goodposting:

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Alright boys, I propose we do the following. Let's comb over our notes, papers and sites and see if we can't pinpoint some under the radar pitchers who might offer good value at the window early on. There's a great thread at Caseace that does just this and I added my contribution there today. Thoughts on the following would be apprecaited and I hope you guys have a list to add as well.

Carlos Sivla MIN - While Santana commands most of the attention (rightfully so) for the Twins, Silva did something rather astounding last year. In 188IP, he gave up a total of NINE walks. He had solid numbers across the board last year with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP - good for 5th in the AL in both categories. If the Twins could improve slightly offensively this year, a guy like Silva could benefit greatly. Considering their stellar bullpen and Silva's excellent command, I think he's backable in spots and will look to bet him this year.

Kameron Loe TEX - Real young kid put together a very decent campaign in the 2nd half of 2005 with very little fan fare. He started 8 games and finsished the year with a respectable 3.42 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Considering where he pitches, that's damn good. He's added a change up to his arsenal which features a sterling slider and an above average sinker ball. He's had a good spring for Texas and will open as their 4th starter. The Rangers tend to start out hot and fade late, so jump on Loe early as he could get great run support and pitch well to win some early games before wilting in the summer.

Brandon Claussen CIN - Hate the park he pitches in and he makes Charlie Sheen look steady at times, but you can't argue with his power. He throws very hard and can strike guys out. He's got 19Ks this spring and an ERA of 3.60. He won 10 games last year - his first full year in the rotation. I'd prefer to back him on the road, but will look to bet him especially during day games where his splits were fantastic. 4-2 with a 3.00 ERA. Walks too many guys, but with a potent lineup behind him, he could get some cheap wins and will also be the kind of pitcher that dominates a game here and there, fanning several in the process. Very young, I expect his command to get better. Just beware when he's at home and remember that this bull pen sucks like a hooker with a thirst for protein.

Jason Vargas FLA - Another young guy (see a trend here?) who is having a sensational spring with 18 strikeouts in 21 innings pitched and an ERA of 2.57. He was awesome at times late last year and will certainly be fun to watch. Hard to get too excited considering the lineup behind him and a bullpen that is far from good, but he seems to have the kind of stuff that could carry a team for 9 innings. Is he a poor poor man's Felix Hernandez? I know this - I'm going to bet him if the price is right.

Kyle Davies ATL - It's all but a foregone conclusion that he's going to make the rotation in Atlanta as his performance this spring has been light's out and the team is looking to shop John Thomson. His ERA is 0.64 and his breaking ball has danced nicely to couple a 95 MPH fastball. Behind Hudson, Smoltz and Sosa, Davies will have good matchups to take advantage of and even if he's not a dog, he could be a very intriguing slight favorite to lay coin on. Had some very solid starts last year when he was forced into action before he was ready, but like any young pitcher, struggled at times too. his overall numbers weren't pretty, but he flat out controlled some games last summer too.

Justin Verlander DET - The second of Detroit's young studs in the making is going to be their 5th starter while Zumya (sp?) heads to the pen. Having a great spring thus far with an ERA of 3.37 and 16K's in 18IP. Having said that, his BB total is more than a worry and betting him won't always be fun to watch. But Leyland should calm him down and coax the most out of him. I think he'll offer some incredible value this summer and I'll take a shot on him here and there.

Guys I want to look at a little more:

Dewon Brazleton - having a great spring for an uber pitcher friendly team in San Diego. Flamed out in Tampa, but could put it together for the Padres. I think he's their 5th starter now?

Brandon Backe - This guy gets more camera attention that the bastard child of Jessica Simpson and Britney Spears considering his mediocre (at best) MLB career. That said, I think he's slated to start for the Astros and as bad as he can be, he can also pitch some gems (remember his post season performances in 2004?). Supposedly, he's worked on some mechanics in the off season and added a new pitch, but he got lit up the other day in ST.

:goodposting: GM - almost missed seeing this :ph34r::bye:

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:banned::banned::banned::banned::banned::banned:

OPENING DAY TOMORROW!!!

And you guys know where I'm leaning

Mark Buerhle -120

Time to defend the title :thumbup::popcorn:

dunno here Green94 - living in cleveland in all - actually I could care less - I grew up in NJ as a NYY fan. ANyway, think cws are for real again this year? That bullpen is already looking shaky with Hermanson on DL, JEnks getting fatter by the day. Ozzie must be worried to be keeping a rookie lefty in the pen (puhlease let cotts close - one of my fantasy baseball teams would profit greatly if this happened) and picking up another reliever from seattle. Just wondering what you think - I will be curious to see if that pen is ok, or lousy

GL this year to you and to all

AB

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I'm thinking of betting the over 8.

Sabathia and Buehrle is a pretty good matchup but the White Sox bullpen is going to have to pitch at least 2 innings.

Thoughts?

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Cleve/CWS Over 8 +100 tonight

:tumbleweed:

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:banned::banned::banned::banned::banned::banned:

OPENING DAY TOMORROW!!!

And you guys know where I'm leaning

Mark Buerhle -120

Time to defend the title :thumbup::popcorn:

dunno here Green94 - living in cleveland in all - actually I could care less - I grew up in NJ as a NYY fan. ANyway, think cws are for real again this year? That bullpen is already looking shaky with Hermanson on DL, JEnks getting fatter by the day. Ozzie must be worried to be keeping a rookie lefty in the pen (puhlease let cotts close - one of my fantasy baseball teams would profit greatly if this happened) and picking up another reliever from seattle. Just wondering what you think - I will be curious to see if that pen is ok, or lousy

GL this year to you and to all

AB

Everyone is talking about the bullpen, but they should be fine. Boone Logan was called up to be the second lefty in the pen and he has thrown it well this spring. Cotts was as good as they come last year as was Politte out of the pen. They picked up Thornton in the trade for Borchard earlier this spring, and he throws a heavy ball, similar to Contreras. And don't forget, they have Brandon McCarthy in the pen as well this year :eek: Obviously the bullpen has an increased workload earlier in the year due to the starters taking it easy, so it will be interesting to see how they perform. And lets not forget that the White Sox still have in tact one of the top starting rotations (if not the best) in all of baseball and they added Javier Vazquez to that :thumbup: The addition of Thome is HUGE though, he has been flat out raking in the preseason, 8 homers in his last 7 games :eek: This team should be better then last years addition, will they eclipse 99 wins, probably not because they won a lot of close games last year. They should win around 93-95 games and take the Central. :popcorn:

GB Baseball :banned:

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Chi Sox ML Tonight

Dodgers ML tomorrow

3 team parlay tomorrow

Tigers -1.5

D Rays ML

Yankees ML

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Last year we had everything from MP's system plays to Futility's Pinpoint system. JTC has the Sawx covered on the East Coast and SLBD has the Dodgers covered on the West Coast. AB, Proposis, Hoard, and of course GM will be in this thread daily sharing their knowledge as well. Red occasionaly stops in to give us some winners. And every once in awhile Cappy drops in to talk #### about Freddy Garcia and also to post some plays :D

My contribution was that forgetable? :cry::kicksrock:
I still have your dog system program in my favorites. Will it be running again this year? I thought it was awesome.
Well I won't take credit for the dog system (MP posted links describing it), but I did automate it. I'll have to fire it up here soon and make sure it's 2006-ready. I would imagine MP would be first to say it's probably not very worthwhile within the first month of the season, so no hurry.

Do you have this up and going? I found the system to be most profitable for the first half of the season. Then the system kind of faded...at least i hardly played it as much. Can you post the link once its up?

Thanks Roarin!

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I'm on Mark Buerhle -121 tonight.

He's the ace on my fantasy team, so there isn't any reason not to back him at a low chalk figure like this. CC Sabathia can pitch an ugly game from time to time and with the ChiSox opening at home, I like them to win this one and start the season right where they left off- DOMINATING the competition.

I like Strat's choice of going OVER the Brewers win total and will bet that. I also think the Mariners are going to be awful this year and am thinking about going Under 75 for them.

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Cleve/CWS Over 8 +100 tonight

:tumbleweed:

i realize it's pretty dangerous to give thoughts/advice in this thread (who knows how many people follow this?) but i'd like to chip in my thoughts from time to time if not more frequently.

i've rarely tried to predict single games in the past and am not sure if this type of analysis works but i'd start with this:

avg/obp/ops hr-rbi bb-k

Tribe hitters vs. Buehrle: .212/.266/.631 7-14 8-36 in 170 AB

Sox hitters vs. Sabathia: .208/.289/.639 4-14 11-27 in 120 AB

My gut would tell me to go under 8 though I'm not sure if that's below/above avg. for runs scored in a game.

Can we look up which way the wind is blowing tonight? :D

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Cleve/CWS Over 8 +100 tonight

:tumbleweed:

i realize it's pretty dangerous to give thoughts/advice in this thread (who knows how many people follow this?) but i'd like to chip in my thoughts from time to time if not more frequently.

i've rarely tried to predict single games in the past and am not sure if this type of analysis works but i'd start with this:

avg/obp/ops hr-rbi bb-k

Tribe hitters vs. Buehrle: .212/.266/.631 7-14 8-36 in 170 AB

Sox hitters vs. Sabathia: .208/.289/.639 4-14 11-27 in 120 AB

My gut would tell me to go under 8 though I'm not sure if that's below/above avg. for runs scored in a game.

Can we look up which way the wind is blowing tonight? :D

Thoughts are always welcome. I like the over because of the +100 and the bullpens. As this is the first game of the year I have to bet on it. I was not able to decide which side I liked so I am going on the over. Some other folks here are moving me towards betting the CWS ML as well. :bag:

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it will be interesting to see the o/u on tomorrow's colorado game. webb has the highest GO/AO ratio in the bigs at 3.6. Jennings' was 1.62 last year. I'm thinking that this one has a chance to be low scoring for Coors..espec. looking at bat/pitch figures for both teams. And Arizona's offense didn't exactly improve this offseason. (Glaus is gone). Thoughts?

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:banned:  :banned:  :banned:  :banned:  :banned:  :banned:

OPENING DAY TOMORROW!!!

And you guys know where I'm leaning

Mark Buerhle -120

Time to defend the title :thumbup:  :popcorn:

dunno here Green94 - living in cleveland in all - actually I could care less - I grew up in NJ as a NYY fan. ANyway, think cws are for real again this year? That bullpen is already looking shaky with Hermanson on DL, JEnks getting fatter by the day. Ozzie must be worried to be keeping a rookie lefty in the pen (puhlease let cotts close - one of my fantasy baseball teams would profit greatly if this happened) and picking up another reliever from seattle. Just wondering what you think - I will be curious to see if that pen is ok, or lousy

GL this year to you and to all

AB

Going into the season, the bullpen IS the lone question mark for the White Sox. Losing Dustin Hermanson is a BIG loss - he was the closer for 2/3 of last season, and Big Bad Bobby Jenks is going to have to close out games now over the course of a season. I just heard him on the radio right now, and he says his weight is back to where it was at the end of last season, but he still has to prove himself, despite his playoff appearances.

Despite the concern for the end of the bullpen, the 7th-8th innings do look excellent. Neil Cotts and Cliff Politte are a very effective tandem, and I don't see any reason why that shouldn't continue. Brandon McCarthy also is in the bullpen, and he should be more of a 6th-7th inning pitcher, though I expect him to also be a factor in the late innings before long.

Matt Thorton and Boone Logan are new to the bullpen...Logan has never pitched above A Ball, but he was great in the spring, and the Sox took him on. Normally, you'd expect a team to break in a player like Logan very easily, but don't be surprised if Guillen throws him into the fire early. Thorton is somewhat similar to Jenks - very hard throwing, high on potential - but, unlike Jenks, hasn't delivered much at the MLB level. They did fix a flaw in his delivery, and he has been fine since then this spring, so we'll see.

So, the key here is really Bobby Jenks - if he's fine, this bullpen is excellent...if not, every 9th inning will be an adventure, and Cotts could eventually get a shot at closing.

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Hey guys, I am relatively new to baseball wagering and thought I would strike up a discussion. What do you guys think of the over 4 in the first 5 innings. I understand that Buehrle and CC are good pitchers, but in AL 4 runs isnt much. They are both potent offenses and I think 4 is a low number. I can see 4.5 or 5. Can anyone tell me why or why not to bet this line. It seems to me like this is a pretty solid wager.

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Hey guys, I am relatively new to baseball wagering and thought I would strike up a discussion. What do you guys think of the over 4 in the first 5 innings. I understand that Buehrle and CC are good pitchers, but in AL 4 runs isnt much. They are both potent offenses and I think 4 is a low number. I can see 4.5 or 5. Can anyone tell me why or why not to bet this line. It seems to me like this is a pretty solid wager.

I think OVER 8 for the game might be better than the first 5 innings.

I'm not sure about Cleveland's bullpen this year, seems like some runs could get scored with Sabathia out. Plus the Cleveland offense should put some runs on the board, they may be slightly underrated at this point.

First five innings you are guaranteed to see a lot of Buerhle and Sabathia so Im not looking for an over off the bat.

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I'm on Mark Buerhle -121 tonight.

He's the ace on my fantasy team, so there isn't any reason not to back him at a low chalk figure like this. CC Sabathia can pitch an ugly game from time to time and with the ChiSox opening at home, I like them to win this one and start the season right where they left off- DOMINATING the competition.

I like Strat's choice of going OVER the Brewers win total and will bet that. I also think the Mariners are going to be awful this year and am thinking about going Under 75 for them.

I'm with Green and GM Chisox -120

I love to see these 2 guys on my side opening day :yes::thumbup::popcorn::banned:

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Cleve/CWS Over 8 +100 tonight

:tumbleweed:

i realize it's pretty dangerous to give thoughts/advice in this thread (who knows how many people follow this?) but i'd like to chip in my thoughts from time to time if not more frequently.

:welcome:

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I'm on Mark Buerhle -121 tonight.

He's the ace on my fantasy team, so there isn't any reason not to back him at a low chalk figure like this.  CC Sabathia can pitch an ugly game from time to time and with the ChiSox opening at home, I like them to win this one and start the season right where they left off- DOMINATING the competition.

I like Strat's choice of going OVER the Brewers win total and will bet that.  I also think the Mariners are going to be awful this year and am thinking about going Under 75 for them.

I'm with Green and GM Chisox -120

I love to see these 2 guys on my side opening day :yes::thumbup::popcorn::banned:

Let's get out of the gate the right way. :thumbup:

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Anyone else worry about the White Sox coming out flat tonight ? We've seen it in the NBA on ring ceremonies, etc. where that seems to take away from the home team...Not sure how that would factor into a MLB game.

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I'm on Mark Buerhle -121 tonight.

He's the ace on my fantasy team, so there isn't any reason not to back him at a low chalk figure like this.  CC Sabathia can pitch an ugly game from time to time and with the ChiSox opening at home, I like them to win this one and start the season right where they left off- DOMINATING the competition.

I like Strat's choice of going OVER the Brewers win total and will bet that.  I also think the Mariners are going to be awful this year and am thinking about going Under 75 for them.

I'm with Green and GM Chisox -120

I love to see these 2 guys on my side opening day :yes::thumbup::popcorn::banned:

I am in with you guys at -124 :thumbup:

This AM I got over 8 at +100 now it is at -105. :thumbup:

I also took AZ -110 tommorow.(homer pick I always bet them opening day.Its tradition :ph34r: )

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i realize it's pretty dangerous to give thoughts/advice in this thread (who knows how many people follow this?) but i'd like to chip in my thoughts from time to time if not more frequently.

I'm here with you. Just looking over the WIN totals for this year and, barring homerism, Cincinnati at Over 74 -140 seems like a solid bet to me. The team is coming out of ST healthy (hello KGJ), and, dare I say, Milton is looking MUCH improved from last year. His last 3 starts in ST were lights out (9 k's in 5 innings in his last start yesterday, versus Cleveland's OD lineup!!!).Harang was unlucky this year, Claussen could very much come into his own this year and if Arroyo and Milton pitch at their career norms, this team could compete late into the summer. If that happens, the new ownership will come thru and spend for whatever the team needs to keep them in the hunt the rest of the way. That being said, the offense LED THE NL in offense last season and that was w/o a healthy Jr the first month of the season. Watch out if this team has a leage-average ERA (read sig).Nonetheless, on Cin +74 wins -140 for 3 units. GL this season and hope to chime in more during the season.-fe

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White Sox will still be undervalued this year.

I like for tomorrow:

Pirates +107 @Mil

Washington +150 @NYM

I will take the better pitchers at + odds.

Totals that stand out:

Cubs/Reds over 9

Yankees/A's under 7.5

Marlins/Astros under 7.5

For the person talking about Brazelton. He got lit up by the Cubs yesterday. Cubs could be a good sleeper OVER team. The new bleachers will knock down some of the North winds blowing in. Also Pierre at the top of the order should really help Lee and Ramirez.

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Play made for tomorrow

Brewers -119

Doug Davis is a good pitcher who has had below avg run support, Brew crew has some more bats this year and the Pirates still stink

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:excited::excited::excited::excited::excited::excited::excited::excited::excited::excited::excited:

GL to your White Sox. Though true OD doesn't begin until Cincy's game ;)

GB Baseball being back tomorrow...tonight doesn't count, as it's not real baseball, it's the AL :hophead::boxing: (though the AL is much better than the NL this season).

-fe

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Play made for tomorrow

Brewers -119

Doug Davis is a good pitcher who has had below avg run support, Brew crew has some more bats this year and the Pirates still stink

I think the Pirates will have a better record than the Brewers. There will be some growing pains with Milwaukee. Sheets out doesn't help.

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