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Best Spot to Draft In? (1 Viewer)

kaso

kaso

Footballguy
Not sure if this belongs here, or in the Assistant Coach Forum. So feel free to move it if I am wrong...

Just wondering what spot is the best to draft from this year? 12 team league, standard line-ups, with standard scoring (all tds 6, rush/rec yards 1/10, pass 1/20).

This is the first year our league is moving to a system which will allow teams to pick their draft spot.

Personally I think that I would either want pick 1 or 2, or sometime later around 7, 8, or 9.

Any thoughts?

 
Not sure if this belongs here, or in the Assistant Coach Forum. So feel free to move it if I am wrong...

Just wondering what spot is the best to draft from this year? 12 team league, standard line-ups, with standard scoring (all tds 6, rush/rec yards 1/10, pass 1/20).

This is the first year our league is moving to a system which will allow teams to pick their draft spot.

Personally I think that I would either want pick 1 or 2, or sometime later around 7, 8, or 9.

Any thoughts?
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There is a huge dropoff after pick 5 or 6 this year.I think picks 8-9 are the worst. You're looking at Brown, James or Jordan in that area, and all 3 are a huge drop after the guys that are available up top.

If I can't pick top 6, I want pick 12.

 
I agree with diesel. I would want to draft top 3 or dead last. One thing about drafting on the ends is getting the business end of a positional run but I think it's easier to scoop up value in these spots.

 
One thing about drafting on the ends is getting the business end of a positional run but I think it's easier to scoop up value in these spots.
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:confused: Top-3 is nice. The mid-round picks (6,7) project nicely but 6 is definitely a RB tier better than 7 . . . for now.

 
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Not sure if this belongs here, or in the Assistant Coach Forum. So feel free to move it if I am wrong...

Just wondering what spot is the best to draft from this year? 12 team league, standard line-ups, with standard scoring (all tds 6, rush/rec yards 1/10, pass 1/20).

This is the first year our league is moving to a system which will allow teams to pick their draft spot.

Personally I think that I would either want pick 1 or 2, or sometime later around 7, 8, or 9.

Any thoughts?
Click to expand...
There is a huge dropoff after pick 5 or 6 this year.I think picks 8-9 are the worst. You're looking at Brown, James or Jordan in that area, and all 3 are a huge drop after the guys that are available up top.

If I can't pick top 6, I want pick 12.
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I kind of thought that Jordan was in that 2nd tier. I'm assuming you mean Portis, Tiki for picks 4-5 but not sure who you mean in pick 6 as 2nd tier. Who are you referring to when you say 2nd tier? (I'm interested because I'm drafting in spot 6 this year.)
 
for me, the dropoffs are after 1, 4, 7, and 14, so in order of preference:

1, 4, 2, 3, 7, 11, 5, 6, 12, 8, 9, 10

i also like what's available at the 2.12 - 3.1 turn, which favors a top 3 pick.

 
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Not sure if this belongs here, or in the Assistant Coach Forum.  So feel free to move it if I am wrong...

Just wondering what spot is the best to draft from this year?  12 team league, standard line-ups, with standard scoring (all tds 6, rush/rec yards 1/10, pass 1/20).

This is the first year our league is moving to a system which will allow teams to pick their draft spot. 

Personally I think that I would either want pick 1 or 2, or sometime later around 7, 8, or 9.

Any thoughts?
Click to expand...
There is a huge dropoff after pick 5 or 6 this year.I think picks 8-9 are the worst. You're looking at Brown, James or Jordan in that area, and all 3 are a huge drop after the guys that are available up top.

If I can't pick top 6, I want pick 12.
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I kind of thought that Jordan was in that 2nd tier. I'm assuming you mean Portis, Tiki for picks 4-5 but not sure who you mean in pick 6 as 2nd tier. Who are you referring to when you say 2nd tier? (I'm interested because I'm drafting in spot 6 this year.)
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I wouldnt touch Jordan in the first round.For me, pick 6 is Sjax.

 
Not sure if this belongs here, or in the Assistant Coach Forum. So feel free to move it if I am wrong...

Just wondering what spot is the best to draft from this year? 12 team league, standard line-ups, with standard scoring (all tds 6, rush/rec yards 1/10, pass 1/20).

This is the first year our league is moving to a system which will allow teams to pick their draft spot.

Personally I think that I would either want pick 1 or 2, or sometime later around 7, 8, or 9.

Any thoughts?
Click to expand...
In Randy Giminez's book "Dominate Fantasy Football" he states: "ESPN stated that for 2005 the draft position for their site that won the most championships was number two". He goes on to say that in analyzing 21 leagues from CBS Sportsline for 2005 he found that roughly 12% of the playoff teams came from each of slots 1,2,3, and 6. 8 and nine produced about 5% and 12 only 3.6%. If you want more details buy the book, but the bottom line is that you have about twice the chance of making the playoffs from the top 6 positions than you do from the bottom 6. One word of caution, 21 leagues is not a very significant number statistically, so in a larger sampling results may vary.
 
I'll check in at one of those ESPN #2 pick league winners (Shaun Alexander) w/ honorable mention to my 7th rounder - Larry Johnson. :D

Anway, I've been in a 12-team league going into year 14. Last two seasons saw 5 of the 6 teams who got top three picks make the playoffs. In 2004, Teams 1 and 2 played for the title, teams 2 and 3 last year. I will say that this has been more a recent development as I am pretty good on league history and I never remembered having championship game teams lumped so high.

That being said, for '06 I would prefer top 4 (LT, Johnson, Alexander, Portis) or 10-12. Anywhere in the middle is death - though I've won from those slots before.

I don't know how you are "picking" slots, but if you cannot get top 3 or 4, then hang tight on the value of 10/11.

 
Not sure if this belongs here, or in the Assistant Coach Forum.  So feel free to move it if I am wrong...

Just wondering what spot is the best to draft from this year?  12 team league, standard line-ups, with standard scoring (all tds 6, rush/rec yards 1/10, pass 1/20).

This is the first year our league is moving to a system which will allow teams to pick their draft spot. 

Personally I think that I would either want pick 1 or 2, or sometime later around 7, 8, or 9.

Any thoughts?
Click to expand...
In Randy Giminez's book "Dominate Fantasy Football" he states: "ESPN stated that for 2005 the draft position for their site that won the most championships was number two". He goes on to say that in analyzing 21 leagues from CBS Sportsline for 2005 he found that roughly 12% of the playoff teams came from each of slots 1,2,3, and 6. 8 and nine produced about 5% and 12 only 3.6%. If you want more details buy the book, but the bottom line is that you have about twice the chance of making the playoffs from the top 6 positions than you do from the bottom 6. One word of caution, 21 leagues is not a very significant number statistically, so in a larger sampling results may vary.
Click to expand...
Seeing as how the consensus last year was LT then SA and SA broke the TD record, I can certainly see how more winners came from the 2 spot. Seems like pretty faulty analysis. Antsports or CBS Sportsline should aggregate that data down from the massive amounts of leagues they host every year, that would be more useful.Ultimately, I don't mind picking anywhere, but I like the early picks better simply because you don't have to debate your 1st pick. You can then spend the extra time focusing on who will be available coming back to you. I like picking at the two tail ends as well, but you are often forced to reach in that spot on players you really want.

 
It's all about how far down you have to go to get your stud in that first round. The farther down you can go, the better off you'll be (as drafting in the middle is great in later rounds).

 
They're all winning spots.
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Someone had to say it. Let's take it a step further. Someone else has to say: any stud FF owner can always have a supreme draft from any spot.Now, moving on, great analysis, guys. Please keep it coming! I am a believer that where you draft has a huge impact on strategies.

 
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The thing about being near the bookends is that it is dicey to project what players will be available next time around. With mid-rounders, you don't have to project as far. And if you miss on your projections, than it doesn't hurt you as badly because you don't have as long to wait. And you can avoid getting caught on the backend of runs.

 
I agree with the problem with the turn positions, but for me, it typically depends on who you are targeting. Last year I bumped down from 4 to 8 targeting Portis and D Davis on the turn, both of which I got. For me, I like the top 2 this year, and if I can't get that, then I am cool bouncing down towards the turn again angling for a S Jackson/ C Williams/ E James combo.

The other benefit is that you can be early on shifts towards other areas

 
I like drafting 2 or 11. I hate getting the turns. It's way too long between picks.
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1 and 12 is too long between picks, but 2 and 11 aren't?? MMkay. :confused: I won from the 3rd hole last year, getting SA after one owner took Holmes (thinking he could get LJ later, but I grabbed him first).

This year, I like the top 6 picks. My choice would be 3rd, as I'm guaranteed LT, SA or LJ, who I think are pretty interchangeable.

I like #6, because I'm high on S Jax, and could get another stud RB or WR in round 2.

Don't like 10, 11 or 12, because I'd have to debate on stud WR, mediocre RB, or Peyton Manning.

 
It changes every year for me. I'd rather have the first overall pick this year. I'll take LJ and round the next corner with two elite WRs. I've been fiddling with this approach in xpert survivors and I'm always pleased with the end result.

 
I always would like the top 3, usually can get you a stud, but I prefer 5-8 or so. I like to be near the middle of each round.

 
It changes every year for me. I'd rather have the first overall pick this year. I'll take LJ and round the next corner with two elite WRs. I've been fiddling with this approach in xpert survivors and I'm always pleased with the end result.
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Yeah, same.
 
Not sure if this belongs here, or in the Assistant Coach Forum.  So feel free to move it if I am wrong...

Just wondering what spot is the best to draft from this year?  12 team league, standard line-ups, with standard scoring (all tds 6, rush/rec yards 1/10, pass 1/20).

This is the first year our league is moving to a system which will allow teams to pick their draft spot. 

Personally I think that I would either want pick 1 or 2, or sometime later around 7, 8, or 9.

Any thoughts?
Click to expand...
In Randy Giminez's book "Dominate Fantasy Football" he states: "ESPN stated that for 2005 the draft position for their site that won the most championships was number two". He goes on to say that in analyzing 21 leagues from CBS Sportsline for 2005 he found that roughly 12% of the playoff teams came from each of slots 1,2,3, and 6. 8 and nine produced about 5% and 12 only 3.6%. If you want more details buy the book, but the bottom line is that you have about twice the chance of making the playoffs from the top 6 positions than you do from the bottom 6. One word of caution, 21 leagues is not a very significant number statistically, so in a larger sampling results may vary.
Click to expand...
This data has to be skewed. Only idiots play fantasy football on ESPN! :yes: I am half tongue in cheek here. I semi-agree with diesel, except I am 1-3 or 12.

 
I actually used the FBG Draft Dominator to run mock drafts as if I was drafting from each position in my 14 team leagues and a friends 12 team. Did both using ADP and drafting each team as I would draft. Team strengths were very different depending on the spot you drafted and scoring. The ADP mocks were very close to the way my draft actually occured.

For my League:

ADP Mock draft team str rankings

(strongest to weakest)

1

2

4

5

12

11

10

9

8

13

14

7

6

3

How each draft positon finished in power rankings (descending order):

2

4

1

5

10

8

12

11

9

3

7

13

6

14

not sure if theirs anything to it, my team was pick 4, the highest str available after the first 3 teams decided to stick with picks 1-3. probably reinforces the str of picks 1-5, Pick 3 did bad in both because of the anomaly that some people were drafting a QB (Peyton Manning) in the top 5 last year. (Which pick 3 did do in my league).

 
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I agree with the problem with the turn positions, but for me, it typically depends on who you are targeting. Last year I bumped down from 4 to 8 targeting Portis and D Davis on the turn, both of which I got. For me, I like the top 2 this year, and if I can't get that, then I am cool bouncing down towards the turn again angling for a S Jackson/ C Williams/ E James combo.

The other benefit is that you can be early on shifts towards other areas
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Yes, it's all about who you are targetting, especially early on. But having said that, if I had to have the same pick every year, it'd be 6.
 
I'm going to buck the trend a little here and say...it depends.

In a league of guppies, I like to draft late, because I'll be stealing great value, and generally end up with a deeper roster then I deserve. Last year, I managed to get Edge drafting out of the tenth slot in a league like this. 9 or 10 is where i want to be with guppies.

With more experienced guys, I'd prefer to draft early, in the 3-5 slots.

If I don't know much about my competition, I'd rather be towards the middle, to avoid getting caught on the wrong end of runs, and still give myself the opportunity to size up my competition a little before my second pick. :boxing:

 
IMO the best spot is #3 this year that way you get to choose whoever is left of the top three (LJ, LT, and SA) and gives you a better spot for round # 2.

 
They're all winning spots.
Click to expand...
Someone had to say it. Let's take it a step further. Someone else has to say: any stud FF owner can always have a supreme draft from any spot.Now, moving on, great analysis, guys. Please keep it coming! I am a believer that where you draft has a huge impact on strategies.
Click to expand...
;) I like the top 3 picks. Being able to get an elite RB, followed by a pair of stud WRs, then grabbing a couple more backs at the 4-5 turn has done well for me in the past.

I like picks 4 and 5 next. I have Tiki and Portis rated quite a bit higher than the next tier of backs. There should be a solid back in the 2nd available, possibly a top WR in the 3rd, and it also puts you a little closer in the middle of picks for those who are worried about runs (not me).

After the top 5 spots, I think I like the end picks 10-12 the next best. You should easily be able to pair up on a couple of late 1st round quality backs, and maybe someone falls a few spots in the first and it really works out well. I also really like some of the WR value available near the 3-4 turn.

 
IMO the best spot is #3 this year that way you get to choose whoever is left of the top three (LJ, LT, and SA) and gives you a better spot for round # 2.
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No question in my mind the best spot this year is #3.
 
They're all winning spots.
Click to expand...
Someone had to say it. Let's take it a step further. Someone else has to say: any stud FF owner can always have a supreme draft from any spot.Now, moving on, great analysis, guys. Please keep it coming! I am a believer that where you draft has a huge impact on strategies.
Click to expand...
;) I like the top 3 picks. Being able to get an elite RB, followed by a pair of stud WRs, then grabbing a couple more backs at the 4-5 turn has done well for me in the past.

I like picks 4 and 5 next. I have Tiki and Portis rated quite a bit higher than the next tier of backs. There should be a solid back in the 2nd available, possibly a top WR in the 3rd, and it also puts you a little closer in the middle of picks for those who are worried about runs (not me).
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I'm at the 4 in NM and am thinking much the same. I figure Barber/Portis and then see what value presents itself in 2 and 3. Figure to land at least 1 top WR, maybe 2. Or maybe get an RB or two there depending on the value.
 
What about going into a 12 team league, where you can only keep one player. Does that change anything?

 
The best way to think about this is that you'd like to be one of the last drafters in a "tier" at the top, and also be in a position to better dictate what you get later in the draft.

This year, there is a solid "Top 3 RB" argument (LT2, LJ, SA), with possible inclusion of Portis.

LamJ, Tiki, Brown, SJax, Caddy form the next tier.

So picking 3-4 would seem to make the most sense in Round 1 to get your preference, then I'd prefer to be at the bottom of my Tier 2.

If I had "Tier 1" with 4 backs and "Tier 2" with 5, I'd want pick 9 if I didn't care which one I got (the essence of value drafting and tiering).

The other consideration is later in the draft - namely getting RB pairings and dictation of some possible runs.

Picking 3rd you might get TJones / CBenson back-to-back, or Maroney / Dillon, or McCallister / Bush for example in Rounds 2/3 or 4/5.

Later in the draft at Rounds 8-9 or 10-11 you can go QB/QB to start a QB2 run, and you can double-dip at other positions to start other runs (TE, D, K) if you choose to grab 2 of those. Picking 2 of the same position close to one another (virtually back-to-back) gives the impression of the start of a run, which helps you immensely. You just got two from that position, and now other players at different positions are falling as other owners are trying to catch up at that position, continuing the run.

All that said, this year Slot 3 looks to be the best, with possibly Slot 2 a close second (especially if you REALLY want LT2 or LJ over Portis or SA).

 
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Another benefit of drafting towards the front or back is that players you try and have slide a round. If you only have to look at 2-3 owners between your picks, you can tell if they might go after certain positions by your next choice. That's FAR harder drafting in the middle.

 
Im thinking best bet may be pick #4 this year. Portis pretty much a lock to go there and you may even get lucky and get LJ/SA/LT if someone looks at Porits' upside or buys into one of them having a major fall off (which im prettty sure one if not all will have). After that a Top tier WR in round 2 and another rb in r3 unless a great wr value falls to you.

~crag

 
The 7 ensures a stud RB with the ability to still get another stud in the 2nd (wr or rb)
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I'm in this boat for 06, and actually like the slot. Typically I draw late picks (we randomly select draft spots) and have usually done well (agreed it's possible to draft well from any position). Our league is 14 teams w/ redraft and no keepers, and no PPR, so having Barber and maybe Edge w/ ?s projected in front of me is fine (especially since we're TD heavy and Tiki tends to get pulled @ the goal line for B Jacobs). I'd love to see Portis drop somehow, but that's not likely.

ADP says S Jackson/L Jordan now, which I'd be happy with, considering there's still studly WRs in R2 (one of Holt/Fitz/Moss/TO) and decent RB2 options in the 3rd.

Sure, I'd rather be @ 3/4, but 7 doesn't look that bad IMO - since I tend to agree w/ Pasquino's theories about tiers.

 
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I prefer to draft around 'bad drafters' There's always two guys in every draft that reach for their favorite players from the past or their 'sleepers'.

If you can choose your position, try to get one of those guys next to you.

 
A good argument for the advantage of the top three picks is applying the roster you can assemble to auction values. The typical team following current ADPs drafted anywhere from 4-12 can be purchased in a typical current auction. You simply cannot bid for the team you can draft from slots 1-3. You will not be able to afford it. 1-3 are currently the best draft spots. If you're like me and prefer LJ significantly and have the elite WRs shuffled a little, then 1.1 is far and away the place to be.

eta:

Also, based on a bunch of mocks, ADPs, and my early projections, I rank the the spots like this.

1. 1

2. 2

3. 3

4. 4 or 5

5. 10, 11, 12

6. 9

7. 7 or 8

8. 6

 
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It changes every year for me. I'd rather have the first overall pick this year. I'll take LJ and round the next corner with two elite WRs. I've been fiddling with this approach in xpert survivors and I'm always pleased with the end result.
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I did this last year from the 3 spot and won my league, despite losing Javon Walker in week 1. I have the #1 pick this year and will probably go the same route. In 4-5 Ill grab either 2RBs, or a RB and QB. As long as you can get a good starting QB somewhere around round 5-6, this approach can work really well.That said, Id be just as happy with pick 2 or 3, and have been thinking about offering to trade down to pick 3.

 
Well I am up to make my pick selection shortly.... One more team to pick in front of me and so far picks 1 through 4 are gone.

I think the next team will select pick 5. So I will have 6 through 12 to select from.

As it stands I am heavily leaning towards taking pick 9. I like the value that I should be able to get in that position in the first round and in the second.

So, if you had to take a pick out of what's left (6 through 12), what would it be and why?

(Performance scoring, start 1 QB, 3 WRs, 2 RBs)

 
I'll check in at one of those ESPN #2 pick league winners (Shaun Alexander) w/ honorable mention to my 7th rounder - Larry Johnson. :D
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ESPN sent an email to everyone who played last year with that info. I remember thinking that it was probably having Shaun Alexander that made the difference and not that the spot itself - if that makes sense. (In other words, not necessarily a benefit in rounds 2+)
 
The best way to think about this is that you'd like to be one of the last drafters in a "tier" at the top, and also be in a position to better dictate what you get later in the draft.

This year, there is a solid "Top 3 RB" argument (LT2, LJ, SA), with possible inclusion of Portis.

LamJ, Tiki, Brown, SJax, Caddy form the next tier.

So picking 3-4 would seem to make the most sense in Round 1 to get your preference, then I'd prefer to be at the bottom of my Tier 2.

If I had "Tier 1" with 4 backs and "Tier 2" with 5, I'd want pick 9 if I didn't care which one I got (the essence of value drafting and tiering).

The other consideration is later in the draft - namely getting RB pairings and dictation of some possible runs.

Picking 3rd you might get TJones / CBenson back-to-back, or Maroney / Dillon, or McCallister / Bush for example in Rounds 2/3 or 4/5.

Later in the draft at Rounds 8-9 or 10-11 you can go QB/QB to start a QB2 run, and you can double-dip at other positions to start other runs (TE, D, K) if you choose to grab 2 of those. Picking 2 of the same position close to one another (virtually back-to-back) gives the impression of the start of a run, which helps you immensely. You just got two from that position, and now other players at different positions are falling as other owners are trying to catch up at that position, continuing the run.

All that said, this year Slot 3 looks to be the best, with possibly Slot 2 a close second (especially if you REALLY want LT2 or LJ over Portis or SA).
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:goodposting:
 
I agree with diesel. I would want to draft top 3 or dead last. One thing about drafting on the ends is getting the business end of a positional run but I think it's easier to scoop up value in these spots.
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I agree for the points made above. 11 or 12 would ok with me.
 
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