Tonight, we'll be joined by the Footballguys.com IDP staff (Norton, Bramel, Baker, Rudnicki, Bloom, Magaw, and Culcasi) to discuss topics from the "other" side of the ball.
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Interview w/ the IDP Staff (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Clayton Gray
- Start date
Hey guys,
First off, thanks for getting together tonight to discuss individual defense players. I speak for a lot of experienced fantasy footballers when I say I am pretty much shuked over IDPs. We should learn a lot tonight.
Anyway, let's gets started with a general question:
Q1 - What’s in the works for FBGs IDP coverage this summer?
First off, thanks for getting together tonight to discuss individual defense players. I speak for a lot of experienced fantasy footballers when I say I am pretty much shuked over IDPs. We should learn a lot tonight.
Anyway, let's gets started with a general question:
Q1 - What’s in the works for FBGs IDP coverage this summer?
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Stop hustlin' us. You know everything.Boss should be here soon to take the big boy questions.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Then again he lets me speak for him all the time and he may still be umpiring a baseball game.In my best Norton voice....
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Good point.
OK, we'll take a more player specific question:Q2 - How will the Charger safety situation play out? Assuming McCree has a lock on the FS gig, who wins the SS role (Hart, Jue, or Kiel)?
my take is this:Marlon McCree played SS in Carolina (took over for Thomas Davis who was lost) last year and kept Minter (a career SS type) at his new FS position. I'm not even sure McCree will play FS in San Diego so it's probably premature to assume that. That being said, I still like Kiel at SS b/c of his ability to defend the run, but if he continues to struggle in coverage I imagine that McCree would be next in line and then Hart or Jue would play at FS. I like Jue more than Hart at FS if both are healthy.
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Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Certainly looks like McCree and Hart are the frontrunners. Coaching staff has been raving about Hart, Jue is struggling a bit to recover from offseason microfracture surgery, and nobody seems to be in Terrence Kiel’s corner.But me.
Hart is a nice player, but Kiel was a very solid safety in 2004. Some knock his coverage skills. But I see a guy who had 4 picks and 14 passes defended over 28 games as a strong safety in 2003 and 2004. Some knocked his tackling last year, but Kiel had a fine first month of the season last year, then tore up an ankle that he played through for two months before having surgery once the Chargers fell out of playoff contention. I think the guy can play.
I’m clearly in the minority. If Hart wins the job, keep at least one eye on Kiel. He could burst back onto the scene in a big way.
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my money's on Clinton Hart. The team re-signed him to a 3 year deal despite a crowded situation at safety, and he's been looking good so far. Kiel has been adequate at best, and Jue has issues with his knee.
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Dave Baker
Damn glad to meet you
The latest from what I've heard is the Clinton Hart has looked very good and has the early running on the starting slot. His main competition appears to be Bhawoh Jue, who was signed last year as a free agent. Jue played free safety last year and with McCree, is looking now to move over to start as the strong safety.The team is more financially vested in Jue, but that might not matter. I think Hart will win it.
Hello everyone and sorry for being a little late tonight. Thought I was going to get out of umpiring the game but my replacement didn't show up.
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Welcome John.
Here's a quick one for you:
Q3 - Will the weekly in-season projections more closely match the cheatsheet rankings this year?
Here's a quick one for you:
Q3 - Will the weekly in-season projections more closely match the cheatsheet rankings this year?
And let's throw one out to the group to discuss:
Q4 - Can Carolina LB Thomas Davis be a fantasy success on the strong-side in Carolina? Will he do better or worse than Mark Fields did in 2002 in a similar role?
Q4 - Can Carolina LB Thomas Davis be a fantasy success on the strong-side in Carolina? Will he do better or worse than Mark Fields did in 2002 in a similar role?
Fields was bigger, faster & way more experienced in 2002 than Davis is in his second year... which really amounts to his rookie season (and he came out as a junior). He is a physical specimen and outstanding natural athlete (though that doesn't seem to translate to coverage ability). Very high pedigree, taken ahead of highly regarded Derrick Johnson and within few picks of DeMarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman. CAR scouts have very good track record with high picks in recent seasons (other first rounders in last half decade - Peppers, Gross, Gamble, DeAngelo Williams). Maybe they whiffed on this one... but I don't think so. I have tempered expectations for his soph campaign due to his stumble out of the gate in 2005, but he appears to have the talent if the CAR coaching staff can get the most out of him to have the upside of elite, blue chip SLB like Marcus Washington in a year or two.
Thanks Clayton,The weekly cheat sheets are driven strictly by the projections. The projections are done in an excel file that is fed into the system which sorts via the scoring system entered and ranks the players strictly according to the numbers. With this in mind I'm not sure what is meant by "more closely match". What I can tell you is that we are always looking to improve our system and to that end some tweaks have been made to the way we will do things in '06. The problem I saw last year was that projecting any type of big play for a player would skew the numbers and rank that player higher than he should be. IE if you project a corner at 2-1-0 he is a non factor but if you add a PD and a pick he is suddenly way up on the list. Since projecting big defensive plays is such a crap shoot, the projections this year will allow me to break things down to percentages. For example I might project the Bengals for 1 interception. Last year I had to make an educated guess as to who would make that play. That's a pretty tough thing to do. This year I will be able to give O'Neal .5, James .3 and Madieu .2. In the end this should go a long way toward improving the weekly cheats.
Dave Baker
Damn glad to meet you
I like Thomas Davis. What's there not to like? He is just a beast and I think he’ll be one of those rare strong side guys who can put up some numbers, but let’s remember that playing the strong side can be simply disastrous for IDP owners. Just look at DJ Williams with the Broncos.Brandon Short played mostly strong side last year and, although he’s nowhere near as talented as Davis, did not put up numbers to make one think that Davis has a great shot at beating the norm.
But at the end of the day, the Mark Fields comparison is valid, and Davis' talent is too much to ignore. Look for a nice year out of Davis with numbers closer to Marcus Washington than Brandon Short.
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Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I think so. Much depends on how well he can shed/evade bigger blocker on the strong-side. Mark Fields is a pretty good comp. Davis is a little smaller, but is just as quick and aggressive and could be a more talented pass rusher. Even though he’s on the strong side, Davis will be three down backer and the coaching staff will put him in position to make big plays. The 86 solos, eight sacks, and seven passes defended that Fields totaled in 2002 is a lot to ask a player in his first season as a linebacker but those are the shoes Davis is expected to fill. He may take some time to grow into the role, but could be putting up top 25 numbers by year’s end – similar to the Redskins’ Marcus Washington.
I think 100+ total tackles and 7.5 sacks (fields 02 numbers) is asking a lot from Davis this year. Also dont forget that Dan Morgan missed half of that season. He is still adjusting to LB after the team could not decide on his position last summer. He definitely has the closing speed and ferocious approach to make plays all over the field, but he will have more responsibilities and more thinking to do at SLB. I think in a best case scenario down the line, he could settle into numbers around Fields outstanding 02, but this year should be an on-the-field learning experience for Davis which will have its ups and downs.
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OK, moving right along.
Q5 - What are the long term prospects for Miami LB Channing Crowder?
Q5 - What are the long term prospects for Miami LB Channing Crowder?
Dave Baker
Damn glad to meet you
Boy, I really like Channing Crowder. I think his entire career will come down to how healthy he will be, as both of his knees have seen multiple surgeries. If he can stay healthy, he should get the MLB after Thomas is gone and then you're looking at 100+ tackles numbers whenever he plays more than 14 games.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Some fantasy owners get stymied by linebackers they hope will become fantasy studs getting stuck on the strong side – Thomas Davis, DJ Williams, Derrick Johnson – why are they always on my team?
Others get the Channing Crowder, Barrett Ruud treatment. Stuck behind durable, stud veterans. Crowder’s got the talent to be a fantasy stud, but won’t become one in the weak side role in Saban’s bizarro hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense. However, there’s no reason he can’t go Will Witherspoon on your league if Thomas gets hurt for any extended period.
even though he'll be playing on the strong side, Davis should benefit from the departure of Will Witherspoon b/c that will open up a spot for him in the team's nickel package. I don't think he'll approach those Mark Fields numbers anytime soon, but SLBs who play all 3 downs are usually productive. For dynasty owners, there still remains a chance he could be moved to the WLB spot at some point, but this will be his first year at LB so fantasy owners need to be patient.
Crowder is still just scratching the surface of his potential at only 22 years old. He projects as a stalwart three down LB, and should occupy the weak side until Zach Thomas rides off into the sunset (after which CC should get a shot to play the middle with his abilities). He does have some durability issues, and his production will be capped while Thomas is around - still patient dynasty owners will be rewarded.
Q6 - How productive will Seattle LB Leroy Hill be in 2006? Is he a three-down weak side linebacker?
He was a first round talent with major medical concerns coming into the league. He took over the WLB job from an over the hill Junior Seau last year and gives the Dolphins some much needed youth in their front 7. I expect his play and production to improve slightly in 2006 but the presence of Zach Thomas will limit his upside. He's an explosive player and is expected to eventually take over the MLB job at some point, but his past knee problems are still a real concern for dynasty owners and could lead to a shortened career.
I expect Peterson and Tatupu to be in the team's nickel package. Peterson is getting paid too much money and is too valuable in coverage to not be on the field in every down and situation. Hill showed impressive ability in coverage and as a blitzer during his rookie season but I think he's clearly the 3rd best LB in this group.
I believe Crowder will become Zach Thomas at some point in the future but Thomas might play for 2-3 more years.
Seattle is a club that likes to go with right and left linebackers rather than strong and weak. Hill has been working on the left which is most often the strong side. The club was very impressed with him as a rookie and so was I. Keeping in mind the facts that Anthony Simmons was a stud at the same position a few years back, Peterson is injury prone and Hill racked up 6.5 sacks in '05, I think there is a good chance he could be a 3 down guy. He's a solid prospect that can be had late in a lot of drafts. I'm sitting on Hill in a couple of dynasty leagues and I have no plan to let him go.
Dave Baker
Damn glad to meet you
Hill’s another guy that it’s tough not to like. He seemingly came out of nowhere to put up some very nice rookie numbers, especially as the season wore on. In the six games he didn't start at the beginning of the season, Hill had two sacks and averaged less than three tackles per game. In the nine games he started, he had five sacks and averaged over six tackles per game. And to me it seems reasonable that he performs better with a year under his belt.
Hill should be a decent LB4 option with some upside as he settles into his starter's role in Seattle. He should at least improve slightly on his tackle totals and reproduce his good sack numbers from 2005. His pass rush ability almost insures that he'll be in some on 3rd down in passing situations. Hill is definitely an LB to target if your league awards more than 3X the value of a tackle for a sack. He's going to be 3rd in the chow line for tackles behind Tatupu and Peterson, so temper your expectations.
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Q7 - Who is the frontrunner for the Minnesota MLB job? Can any of the previously disappointing trio of EJ Henderson, Napoleon Harris, or Dontarrious Thomas become a legitimate fantasy option?
Thomas has the kind of speed that would be interesting in Tampa Bay Cover Two defense (new DC imported from Bucs), but may not have ideal instincts for the position. Even though he played on the inside at Auburn, he may be more natural fit as WLB (that path blocked by first rounder Greenway), rather than taking on blocks at the POA. There may not be a frontrunner yet and this situation should play out in camp, pre-season... and possibly even into the regular season (the starter when camp breaks may not be the same by season end). Henderson may have a better combination of talent and health than Harris. But if the ex-Raider's injury problems are behind him, it wouldn't be much of a surprise if he emerges.
If I was to guess (and that is all anybody can do at the moment... probably including the MIN coaches), i think Henderson starts but the crystal ball is admittedly pretty murky here. If things break right, he (or whoever emerges in the middle) has a chance to outscore Greenway. Quarles had a big year in TB last season from the MLB position (though he is faster, more athletic, instinctive and experienced than Henderson).
* Interesting that for a high voltage pedigree from the principals here (Harris former OAK first rounder and first LB selected in his class, Henderson a high second rounder and was second MLB taken in his class after Nick Barnett, and Thomas was also a second rounder), they collectively have had a power outage in the production department.
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Napoleon Harris has been working most with the first team. The problem I see with Minnesota is the same as last year, they play too many different guys according to situation. What I see is Harris or Henderson on running downs and Thomas against the pass. The only Vikings LB I would draft is Greenway.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Looks like Napoleon Harris is getting the majority of snaps right now. But none of these guys are the long term answer in the Vikings’ Tampa-2 defense. Thomas has the speed but lacks the football and coverage instincts the Mike has to have in that scheme. Harris has been a disappointment everywhere he's been - including the Vikings last year. It looks like the Vikes want him in the job, but Harris has said that he would much rather play outside. He’s saying all the right things but the guess here is that EJ Henderson wins this job if Chad Greenway proves himself a Week 1 starter on the weak side. Henderson has adequate speed and decent coverage skills and probably the best combination of both. But it’s almost certain that the long term answer is not on this roster yet.
Right now, it's Harris, but you should read very little into that. The Vikings LBs are in flux and most of them are being cross-trained at more than one position. You can pencil Ben Leber in on the strong side, but that's about it. I don't think any of the three will become IDP studs, but they are all worth rostering for now, especially Henderson because he is best suited for WLB if Chad Greenway is not ready for prime time. All three have the speed to fit well in the cover 2, but none have played up to their ability so far, so i dont think its wise to expect a breakout year from any of them. They could even end up splitting duties as the year goes on, so there might not be a dependable option week to week at MLB.
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Dave Baker
Damn glad to meet you
As for the frontrunner, I think I read something different every time I look. Your guess is as good as mine. But with so many discounting all three of them, just by keeping abreast of the situation, you could end up swooping up a productive MLB late in your draft.Of course, they all could end up as busts with none getting sufficient playing to merit picking up. If one happens to stand out in the next two months, it could be worthwhile.
Q8 - Why is Ram LB Pisa Tinoisamoa ranked so low if he will be a three-down weak side linebacker?
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Probably because I’m asleep at the wheel.
I don’t have Tino ranked currently. It’s partially an oversight – I didn’t have him ranked initially after reading reports that he’d play strong side with Dexter Coakley or Brandon Chillar the WLB. Later reports have said Tino is the WLB. My next set of rankings will have Tino somewhere between 35 and 45. I think he’ll have rosterable value, but I’m not convinced he’ll make enough big plays to make up for the lack of tackling opportunity he’ll have in a defense that should highlight new MLB Will Witherspoon.I know Bob likes him though and he pushed me to take a second and third look at Lofa Tatupu last year so....this....
...for...you...Bob.
Tinoisamoa has had ample opportunities to produce while being surrounded by a lackluster LB corps and has yet to break the top 30 LBs. Will Witherspoon should clean up as the best LB theyve had in St. Louis in a while and possibly deflate Pisa's production.
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he's been a top-40 LB for 3 straight years and will hopefully remain at WLB for the entire year. however, the team has had a very disappointing series of MLBs over the past few years and will now turn to FA acquisition Will Witherspoon. That addition could wind up stealing some production from Pisa but he's still an attractive option given his all-around ability.
Good question. I have him just inside the top 30 (for context, he was #35 in FBG scoring last year). I actually think he has top 20 upside, but my ranking is more conservative as best case scenario not most probable. He looked like an ascendant player as a rookie, leading STL in tackles and being one of few defensive players in the league at any position to get multiple sacks, FFs and INTs. His second season was marred by reportedly nearly DD shoulder separations, yet he still led team in tackles... as he did again in the generally disastrous (for the team) 2005 season.
Witherspoon will lead the team (and be among league leaders) in tackles. But the presence of easily the best MLB Tino has played next to during his brief STL tenure may allow new DC and more aggressive ex-Saints HC Haslett to turn him loose to do what he does best... make plays. He has flaws (undersized, runs around blocks at times, loses containment, overruns plays) but if unleashed could be capable of returning to his 2003 rookie form of multiple sacks, FFs and INTs... and he could finish a close second in tackles to Spoon.
* cheers, Jene... make it a Gulden Drak!
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Q9 - Can Kansas City veteran SS Sammy Knight hold off rookie Bernard Pollard and keep his job all season long?
The Chiefs love Pollard and history proves with no doubt that Herman Edwards doesn't shy away from starting rookie safeties. He started 2 of them at the same time last year. Edwards loves speed and Knight doesn't have it. Unless Pollard struggles I don't know if Knight can make it out of camp as the starter.
Dave Baker
Damn glad to meet you
Although Sammy Knight has been a dependable player, he’s 30 years old and is on the downside of his career. They certainly are not afraid of starting a rookie and they are salivating at the prospect of playing the fierce Bernard Pollard. I think the job will be Pollard’s prior to midseason.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Doesn’t sound like it. The coaching staff is raving over Pollard, who is a younger version of the man he’ll replace. If Pollard had been drafted by a front office that refuses to play rookies no matter how ready they are for the big time, Knight could be considered safe. But this is Herm Edwards – the guy who trusted youngsters like Eric Coleman, Kerry Rhodes, and Jonathan Vilma to full time roles very early in their careers. Pollard isn’t nearly as hyped as Michael Huff or Donte Whitner, but could be every bit as productive. Maybe more.
It's possible, but Pollard can dispense devastating hits, something that has been sorely missing from the Chiefs defense. His style of play compliments Greg Wesley better than KNight's and I think Herm will be eager to see what he has in Pollard.
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Some HCs are reluctant to play rookies right away. New HC and ex-Jets Coach Herm Edwards doesn't have that problem, which he showed by starting day two rookie safeties Erik Coleman and Kerry Rhodes in consecutive years (they have both had top 5-type seasons in tackles for DBs already). Knight used to be one of the best playmaking safeties in the game but has diminishing skills. Pollard was called by some pundits a reach (as was rookie teammate Tamba Hali) but he was a second rounder and the team seems very high on him.
He is a barbaric, medieval hitter that will bring a much needed menacing dimension to the Chiefs and be a physical tone setter, not only for the secondary but the entire defense (like Bob Sanders of the Colts, he can look like a man among boys at times). Knock out artists often play out of control and make unreliable open field tacklers, yet NFL.com scout Mike Mayock called him one of the best tacklers in the entire draft. On film he looks fluid in coverage, which should facilitate a smooth transition from college to pro.
One reason he was supposedly a reach was the character red flag of clashing with his HC at Purdue. This didn't scare off confident new leader and ex-DB Edwards, who should make an excellent and well-suited mentor for the strong-willed and formerly high maintenence Pollard. He could easily emerge as one of the best strong safeties and top overall IDPs from the class of 2006, along with Donte Whitner (and probably in many cases a few rounds cheaper than the #8 overall pick, making him potentially compelling value).
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one sign in favor of Pollard is the surprising numbers that Erik Coleman (#16 DB in 2004) and Kerry Rhodes (#18 DB in 2005) put up in their rookie seasons with the Jets the past two seasons. Neither had a veteran as talented as Sammy Knight to compete with, but Herm Edwards is clearly not afraid to rely heavily on rookies.
Q10 - Since the Eagles plan to rotate their defensive linemen to keep them fresh, will any one lineman produce solid numbers? What does the signing of Darren Howard mean for Trent Cole’s long term prospects?
Yes, and that lineman will be Javon Kearse. Kearse is due for a bounce back year with the strengthening of the defensive line and should lead the team in sacks. Darren Howard should play outside on 1st and 2nd down and inside on passing downs, relegating Cole to a pass rush specialist role. Both will keep offensive lines from focusing on Kearse, along with Jerome McDougle, Mike Patterson, and Brodrick Bunkley. Do keep Cole on your watch list in case Howard continues to struggle with injury problems.
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Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I don’t think any of them have been particularly impressive or consistent against the run, but Howard was in rotation for much of his time in New Orleans and that could have blunted his stats a bit. I think he’s the most likely to put up 40 some solos and double digit sacks. I’ve been asking myself that same question on Cole. That guy showed flashes of becoming a successful two way defensive end last year. I think it’s a situation where the Jim Johnson pressure style of defense demands fresh legs. Cole’s got potential, but the rotation may hurt his numbers more than anyone else.
