ANARCHY LEAGUE 3

[Jiggyonthehut 0]

Thoughts on my draft: Hope others do the same.

1.01: LaDanian Tomlinson: Really no explanation needed. A top-3 pick in any scheme and it was just a matter of who I liked better between LJ, LT and Shaun Alexander. At the time I wasnt convinced Roaf was comming back, and liked what I heard out of Chargers' TC about Rivers' frequent targeting of Tomlinson. Also his skills as a passer are much more refined and I figured defenses would still be pinned back because of a very viable aerial attas (Gates, McCardell, Parker, VINCENT JACKSON<----stud)

2.16: Donald Driver: Ive been stockpiling this guy in many PPR leagues. I guess Im a bit old school in that I do value consistancy over big-play ability and Driver fits the bill. He's easily a top-15 reciever in PPR formats year in and out and has a chance to crack the top-10 in this scoring format if someone emerges opposite from him. I imagine the GB ground attack to make slight strides so dont expect continual double coverages.

3.01: Julius Jones: Im sure you all are aware of the upside and downside. The facts dont change that he is a quality back when healthy and even with Barber taking an expanded role in the offense, Jones should be in line for at least 200 carries with a cap at 275. At the time of the draft I was aware of the o-line's problems but thought that their talent superceeded any caution i had. The news about Tyson seeing a role hit me yesterday, and coupled with Dallas' continued inability to run effectively (preseason vs seattle) Im starting to regret that pick. I was thinking Chester Taylor all the way but playoffs played a role in my decision.

4.16: Andre Johnson: Call me a bit bullish- but I wouldnt want any player 10 picks above or below 4.16. To me AJ represents substantial value. Factor the fact that Kubiak has turned UDFA's like Rod Smith into potential HOF'ers and also Johnson's incredible physique and you see why. Houston's o-line has been leagues better in terms of pass protection as well. Injury is a concern but at this point its hard to pick a reciever who hasnt had their share. Very happy to have gotten him.

5.01: LJ Smith: My favorite pick of the draft. I could have went WR here and gotten better production but the 2PPR is too hard to resist. I bought into the McNabb and Reid-speak about his expanded role and figured it made sense. Ive only been rewarded with glowing reports from camp. Didnt like my TE options later and figured that the trigger had to be pulled now (wouldnt last until 6.16)- even over Cooley. He's someone Im counting on to carry my team.

6.16: Atlanta Falcons TMQB: More of a sure thing than most people let on. When I ran numbers through Projections Dominator with averages of 10 people I value (5 FBG's included) Vick came out as a top-5 QB. I was shocked of course and didnt buy into it much. But to be honest, all the other TMQB's Id draft before Atlanta were taken. In essence, its a silver medal that just might end up saving my season. Schuab is a great backup to boot so Im not too concerned about their injury prospects. Shockley looks good too. At worst, they will produce as per their ADP.

7.01: Reggie Brown: Draft impasse. WR or TE here? RB's represented no substantial value and I wasnt about to take a flyer on Curtis Martin. More specificaly it was Brown vs. KWII. The decision was tough as both have the intangibles that you want but limited(no) actual PT last year. In the end, I reasoned that Winslow was more of a risk and as a result I got myself another WR1. Im not impressed with McNabb's prospects this season, but in the end, I really cant bet against his #1 target.

8.16: Houston Texans TMQB: Again a pick necessitated by need. TMQB's were dropping like flies and I needed to get mine or get mired in an unfavorable position. Again, Houston looked very attractive simply because of Kubiak. He turned Elway's otherwise mediocre first few seasons into a fantasy machine in his first year. Regardless of all that, Kubaik has churned out constant 1000 yard recievers. Throw in a great possession reciever in Moulds, a huge upgrade in Putzier and better pass blocking and you see why it wasnt a hard decision. Its hard not to think they will outproduce this pick. Also, i have this thing for Sage Rosenfels. Dont ask.

9.01: Antonio Bryant: WOW. Cant believe I got him here. Thats 3 #1 recievers on my roster. I didnt have any opinions on bryant pre-draft but noted some pretty signifcant splits on him. Looked real good on paper. Not really excited about SFO this year but I think their offense takes a turn for the better. Im pretty high on Gore and think he'll be able to open up the field a bit as well. The pickings were really starting to slim and I was glad I ended up as such.

10.16: Brandon Jacobs: Pick necessitated by need yes, but I've always been excited about the kid. Ive held on to him and rewarded me last year signifcantly. I cant see him doing worse than last year, and perhaps with Coughlin having confidence in him, he'll see more downs. Best avalible RB on the board and a TD monster to boot. Tiki's only getting older. He's in one of the best fantasy situations as a backup as he actually does get in his share of TD's and is only a injury-to-a-older-RB away from a starting gig.

11.01: Jacksonville Jaguars TMD: Homer pick. Theyve also gotten much better. Sure that WLB spot is up for grabs but theyve cemented a pheomonal Defensive line and secondary (Yes brian williams is that good). Im also loving their additions of Clnt Ingram (who should be starting by mid-season) and late rounder Brent Hawkins who has looked incredible in camp and into his first preseason game.

12.16: Verron Haynes: Upside Pick. Had been been hearing about the open competition at the goal line in Pittsburg and after I saw a picture of Haynes I thought holy #### this guy is a tank. He was doing quite well in those situations to boot. Some people may critize this pick in favor of a WR (and yes I do like Greg Jennings) but I thought this was the last RB to produce viably. I couldnt pass him up and at worst he produces as a situational back. His upside of is a Bettis-lite. And I had cemented a fine group of RB's--> the motor to my success.

13.01: Courtney Anderson: Yes. I held out too long on taking my 2nd TE. And It cost me. Still Anderson is a decent consolation prize. I simply had heard too much negative about Pope and Graham is still primarily a blocker. Kinney was an option but Tennessee has a glut of quality TE's and it doesnt help that Scaife and Guenther are getting high praise. Its a situation I wanted to avoid. I figured that Anderson would benefit from Porter's situation, Moss' injury prospects and the QB instability would make him and LaMont primary check-down options. Again, Ive got an idea of what I expect of him, which is around TE20-25. I got him at TE27 so Im not dissapointed at all. May have extra value this season in this PPR format. Call it a hunch.

14.16: Santonio Holmes: Had to adress my WR's soon and decided to do it now. Despite his terrible rep off the field which probably made him fall as such, he's actually seemed to calm down in a recent interview that was shown on TV. I was shocked and decided to look into him further. The kid has great talent if he has his head on straight and maybe this pick was partly because I wanted a chance to root for him. I also do like that he is going to be initiated into a stable offensive scheme with a very accurate QB. Camp reports also had him being a solid target downfield and that timing between him and Roethlisberger is ahead of schedule. Besides, at this point in the draft, you are just fishing for a home-run hitter. He rewards me with a TD in the preseason game already. Hope it continues.

15.01: Laurence Tynes: Kicker. Nothing to see here.

16:16: Mike Nugent: Kicker. Nothing to see here.

17.01: San Franscico 49ers TMD: Had to pick here and options were slim. DY picked this for me and I am grateful for that. Not a huge fan of the 3-4 but I like their playmakers in the secodary. Could have a good number of takeaways if teams continue to throw on them. But what do you expect out of a bottom 5 defense? But the facts stand that the differences between Def15 and Def15 is so negligible week to week that its not even a concern.

18:16: Patrick Crayton: Flex Pick. Probably not the best situation but Im glad that he's finally going to have a signifcant role in the offense. TO is as volatile as they come and Parcells has him on a short leash--> hence Crayton may have a starting role before long. Crayton also looked exceptional in the preseason game and him and Romo got in the groove early. Great concentration on some catches. No doubt Parcells took note. Not bad for Mr. Insignificant.

[Just Win Baby 2,112]

Comments on my team and my draft picks:

1.11 - Ronnie Brown - 9th RB off the board. I would have taken Gates if available, but otherwise I felt I had to secure one really good RB, given that I was planning to go where the value was throughout the draft, which I suspected meant not drafting many RBs early.

2.6 - Torry Holt - 7th WR off the board. Great value IMO. I have him ranked as the top WR and had him next in my predraft list for the first round, after Brown. Of course, he is an N.C. State guy, so I am a little biased.

3.11 - Todd Heap - 3rd TE taken. I couldn't believe the top TEs lasted so long in this draft given the scoring rules... the top few TEs will probably be in the top 10 scorers in this format. And in this format, points are points. This called for a

4.6 - Fred Taylor - 30th RB off the board. I had unrealistically hoped that Foster or Dillon would make it from 3.11 to here. Ron Dayne was a theoretical consideration, but I just couldn't believe the hype and make myself select him, and that certainly looks like a good decision so far. I think Taylor will hold onto the starting job in Jacksonville. I don't envision a huge season, but I think he stands a reasonable chance of outperforming his draft position of RB30.

5.11 - Randy McMichael - 10th TE off the board. Decided two top 10 TEs would be an advantage in this format, and also didn't see strong value at RB or WR and wasn't ready to consider QB yet. I think this pick probably made my draft more than any other individual pick. That is, while I got great value on Holt and Heap, those choices were more obvious IMO. This was a point where I could have gone in different directions with my draft, and I think this will turn out to have been a key decision.

6.6 - Lee Evans - 28th WR off the board. Good value here IMO. Evans was WR24 and WR29 the past two seasons, with only 160 total targets and subpar QB play. Now Moulds, who had 276 targets over the past two seasons, is gone. Looking specifically at last season, Moulds got 129 targets and Evans 92 (tied for 41st in the league), yet Evans was WR29 and Moulds only WR35. This year, I expect Evans to get at least an additional 30 targets. Plus, I am hopeful the Bills' QB play might be at least a little better. All in all, Evans stands a decent chance of breaking the top 20. I also considered Glenn & Matt Jones here, but neither offer that type of value IMO. I also thought about QB, but decided to wait, with only 10 taken at that point. And I considered going flex with a 3rd TE, but ran some numbers and decided I'd be better off waiting for a WR flex... more on this later.

7.11 - Green Bay Team QB - 18th Team QB taken. At this point, I was worried about getting stiffed with a lousy Team QB if I didn't get two soon, so I was planning to take two back to back. I wasn't thrilled with Green Bay's prospects, but they weren't bad value at that point... and the point wasn't the value of this pick, anyway, but rather the fact that I had to take my first Team QB here in order to take the second at 8.6 and avoid the bad value of the bottom QBs. I was hoping San Diego would slide to 8.6... if any of you read the Rivers threads you know I'm high on him. In retrospect, I wish I had taken SD here instead of GB, especially now having seen GB's dismal OL in the first preseason game... but hopefully their OL will only get better from here.

8.6 - Washington Team QB - 21st Team QB taken. Looking just at NFL team passing numbers last year, Washington finished 9th in this scoring system, ignoring QB rushing and other positions' passing (e.g., Portis). That rank probably would drop a bit to literally reflect this format, but Washington appears to be good value here, especially considering that Washington seems to have improved its passing game (WRs) in the offseason.

9.11 - Roddy White - one of the last #1 WRs left. I have been targeting him this offseason, and explained why in multiple Roddy White threads. He was the 47th WR selected, and I think he stands a good chance of cracking the top 30. And I thought that before I learned about Crumpler missing the preseason while recovering from his knee surgery.

10.6 - Tampa Bay Defense - 5th defense taken and likely a top 5 performer. No great value, but highest point scorer on the board, and ensured I wouldn't get frozen out of a defense run. This is not normal strategy for me, but I wasn't willing to take lesser value at RB or WR while passing up all these points.

11.11 - Baltimore Defense - 8th defense taken, so possibly a bit of a value. Again, highest point scorer on the board. I was hoping to help trigger a run on defenses. At this point, I had seen what nightshift and Pimpin' were doing in ignoring RBs, and for nightshift also WRs, and I saw merit in it. Again, points are points. That said, in retrospect, I probably could have waited on the second defense. I expected a run to start sooner.

12.6 - David Akers - Boy, this is serious deviation from my normal strategy. 6th kicker taken. With 20 picks before my next pick, and needing 2 kickers, I wanted to guard against getting stuck with a couple bottom half kickers and the possibility of one of them not earning a starting job, thus leaving me minus 90+ points. This pick ensured I could take my second kicker whenever I needed to if a run started. (Listen to me, talking about kicker runs!) I could have waited on this, but did lock in solid points here.

13.11 - Michael Pittman - 57th RB taken. Finally I was compelled to add my third RB. I like Pittman here, because I am skeptical Caddy can handle the full load. If there isn't a regular role for Pittman, I think Caddy stands a good chance of breaking down. Pittman averaged 155 fantasy points per game in Gruden's offense from 2002-2004, and scored 192 fantasy points in 13 games as recently as 2004. If Caddy goes down, Pittman should be great. But even without that, I should get a solid 75+ fantasy points here. That's as good as it gets in this range of RBs, unless you stumble into a home run pick, like a Gado from last season.

14.6 - Antwan Randle El - 71st WR off the board. Excellent value, considering he should be Washington's WR2. Last year, he was WR52 as Pittsburgh's WR2, despite the fact that Pittsburgh attempted only 379 passes, last in the league, and Randle El had only 70 targets. Washington had 482 passing attempts last season, and their WR2 when healthy was Patten, who had 53 targets in only 9 games. So even though Washington has other good targets in Moss, Cooley, and Lloyd, I think Randle El should easily exceed his 70 targets from last year, particularly if Portis's injury lingers into the regular season. And Randle El's versatility helps, as he will presumably add a few fantasy points on rushes and passes. So I think he is a lock for a top 50 WR with a decent chance at top 30-40.

15.11 - Derrick Blaylock - 62nd RB taken. With Martin's situation not looking good, Blaylock should at worst have a role in a RBBC, and at best could possibly win the job. I'm not counting on that, but he should have a good opportunity to play. I think he'll play ahead of Washington. The Suggs non-trade indicates some risk, as the Jets may still add another RB... but it is unlikely they will add a feature back, so the committee should be there regardless.

16.6 - Ryan Longwell - 17th kicker taken. Surprised he lasted. Last year he was only K26 as the GB offense imploded. But the 3 prior years he was top 6 (FBG player page scoring)... in Green Bay! Now he is in a dome on an offense that might be just good enough to move the ball but could lack red zone threats.

17.11 - Jabar Gaffney - 83rd WR taken. I expect Gaffney to be in the slot, and he has a good chance at 40+ catches. At this point in the draft, catches and playing time carry a lot of weight. I decided to try to find some level of steady production as opposed to swinging for the fences with high upside but low expectations. And in addition to his likely production, I think Gaffney has some upside if Westbrook misses much time and/or if Baskett doesn't live up to his recent hype.

18.6 - Dante Hall - 85th WR taken. I was hoping Cotchery would last to this point. I considered Vincent Jackson here, and it was a tough call. I think Jackson has more upside, but I am hoping Hall gets more touches.

This team had the highest total points and the highest VBD using the latest Draft Dominator standard projections, which I assume are David & Joe's. I doubt I took its recommended pick more than a few times, so I certainly didn't make an attempt to follow those projections exactly. For that matter, I don't think it made particularly good recommendations, given the league and lineup sizes and the many viable draft strategies. That said, I'm glad it thinks my team looks good.

That took a while, so I'll add some other observations later.

[nightshift 0]

nightshift Pick Pos Player Team Points VBD ADP Overall01.10 QB1 Peyton Manning Ind/6 305.4 211 01.14 502.07 QB3 Tom Brady NE/6 267.8 173 03.09 1914.07 RB45 Antowain Smith Hou/5 74.7 39 14.06 17212.07 RB61 Michael Turner SD/3 52.1 16 11.16 23917.10 RB60 Tony Fisher StL/7 53.4 17 --- 23615.10 RB72 Maurice Morris Sea/5 34.1 -2 14.11 28904.07 WR15 Plaxico Burress NYG/4 213.1 139 03.08 5205.10 WR23 Eddie Kennison KC/3 188.9 115 06.06 7713.10 WR63 Travis Taylor Min/6 107.8 34 16.13 18616.07 WR92 Derek Hagan Mia/8 59.9 -14 --- 31118.07 WR85 Vincent Jackson SD/3 75.1 1 --- 28003.10 TE2 Tony Gonzalez KC/3 249.8 182 04.05 1107.10 TE11 Kellen Winslow Jr Cle/6 170 102 07.09 8906.07 TE12 Vernon Davis SF/7 169.1 101 07.16 9010.07 PK1 Adam Vinatieri Ind/6 140.3 52 08.02 14211.10 PK4 Shayne Graham Cin/5 128.4 41 10.01 16708.07 DEF2 Carolina Car/9 175.1 70 06.14 12209.10 DEF3 Chicago Chi/7 169 64 06.01 130

Preface once more by saying first time at 2 QB & total point system.Total points is exactly what I tried to go by. For most of the draft, I went DD's (Dodds only) highest total point producer at each pick. The scoring seemed very unfavorable to RBs, so I didn't place a great emphasis on them. However, I did try to get some the best backups that I think will not only see playing time, but stand a solid chance of starting if their starters should go down.I went for the 1-2 punch with QBs, DEF, and kickers. Since TEs get 2 points, I decided to go with 3. Gonzo? He'll get his fair share as usual. VD & Winslow are underrated at this time and I beleive that both will far exceed their projections.WRs could have been better. Plaxico will do fine along with Kennsion & Taylor (both are consistent producers). Hagan & Jackson are risky, but both are having a solid camp (Hagan might overtake Booker).Overall, fairly happy with this bunch and they should make a good showing. Need a little luck to win, but that's true for all of Fantasydom.

[Just Win Baby 2,112]

nightshift Pick Pos Player Team Points VBD ADP Overall01.10 QB1 Peyton Manning Ind/6 305.4 211 01.14 502.07 QB3 Tom Brady NE/6 267.8 173 03.09 1914.07 RB45 Antowain Smith Hou/5 74.7 39 14.06 17212.07 RB61 Michael Turner SD/3 52.1 16 11.16 23917.10 RB60 Tony Fisher StL/7 53.4 17 --- 23615.10 RB72 Maurice Morris Sea/5 34.1 -2 14.11 28904.07 WR15 Plaxico Burress NYG/4 213.1 139 03.08 5205.10 WR23 Eddie Kennison KC/3 188.9 115 06.06 7713.10 WR63 Travis Taylor Min/6 107.8 34 16.13 18616.07 WR92 Derek Hagan Mia/8 59.9 -14 --- 31118.07 WR85 Vincent Jackson SD/3 75.1 1 --- 28003.10 TE2 Tony Gonzalez KC/3 249.8 182 04.05 1107.10 TE11 Kellen Winslow Jr Cle/6 170 102 07.09 8906.07 TE12 Vernon Davis SF/7 169.1 101 07.16 9010.07 PK1 Adam Vinatieri Ind/6 140.3 52 08.02 14211.10 PK4 Shayne Graham Cin/5 128.4 41 10.01 16708.07 DEF2 Carolina Car/9 175.1 70 06.14 12209.10 DEF3 Chicago Chi/7 169 64 06.01 130

Preface once more by saying first time at 2 QB & total point system.Total points is exactly what I tried to go by. For most of the draft, I went DD's (Dodds only) highest total point producer at each pick. The scoring seemed very unfavorable to RBs, so I didn't place a great emphasis on them. However, I did try to get some the best backups that I think will not only see playing time, but stand a solid chance of starting if their starters should go down.I went for the 1-2 punch with QBs, DEF, and kickers. Since TEs get 2 points, I decided to go with 3. Gonzo? He'll get his fair share as usual. VD & Winslow are underrated at this time and I beleive that both will far exceed their projections.WRs could have been better. Plaxico will do fine along with Kennsion & Taylor (both are consistent producers). Hagan & Jackson are risky, but both are having a solid camp (Hagan might overtake Booker).Overall, fairly happy with this bunch and they should make a good showing. Need a little luck to win, but that's true for all of Fantasydom.

Taylor certainly looks a bit better today than he did yesterday.You have the best QBs, Ks, and Defenses, barring injury, and potentially the best flex player in your third TE. And your first two TEs will be one of the strongest TE pairs. Will it be enough to offset 4 backup RBs? I think we'll see that 4 backup RBs is just too extreme... but your strategy and team will be one of the most interesting to watch.

[Just Win Baby 2,112]

Now that the draft is over, here is some info from the Draft Dominator. This uses version 7.0d, updated today for latest projections, strength of schedule, etc. I did not adjust projections, so I think these are Joe & David's projections as of 8/9. Obviously, that means there will be plenty of disagreement, plus some projections are out of date (Suggs, for example).Still, I like the results.

Team				  Points	VBD----				  ------  -------Just Win Baby		 2680.1   1380.0Jiggyonthehut		 2672.9   1372.0Pimpin' Ain't Easy	2654.4   1354.0   - 15th rounder Henry to miss 4 games?Jackal King		   2634.7   1333.0   - 5th rounder Branch to miss regular season games?nightshift			2634.0   1341.0   - 10th rounder Vinatieri hurt... will he miss regular season games?gocats				2624.2   1323.0   - 6th rounder KRob likely to be cut... likely 0 for seasonFlying Porkchops	  2577.5   1313.0   - 11th rounder Lewis hurt... will he miss regular season games?   - Will Gostkowski beat out Gramatica?Reaper				2562.5   1262.0   - Cundiff cut... likely 0 from one K spotJimmy D			   2539.7   1276.0   - Will 8th rounder Porter and/or 14th rounder Mike Williams play?Dreamers			  2533.9   1232.0renesauz			  2503.7   1242.0   - 6th rounder Stevens likely to miss regular season games   - How much will 7th rounder Martin play?bicycle seat sniffer  2501.5   -711.0   - 15th rounder Edinger is a 0Bruno2				2493.9   1231.0Duckboy			   2458.7   1157.0   - Rogers likely to be cut... only an 18th rounder, but likely 0Fiddles			   2387.0   1125.0Thrown to the Frogs   2288.1  -2812.0   - Will 14th rounder Boston be cut?   - Will Gramatica beat out Gostkowski?

I'm kind of disappointed that guys are not more interested in talking about their teams and/or draft strategies. Added some questions/issues to the list above.

[Fiddles 231]

Anarchy 3

Detroit TMQB

Chicago TMQB

LFitzgerald

MHarrison

SMoss

CBradford

DCarter

CDillon

MBarber

LBetts

TJDuckett

WLundi

HMiller

JWiggins

Rackers

Scobee

St Louis

Oakland

I like my team quite a bit. WR is my strength but I think that I picked up enough RB contributers to not get any doughnuts. The portis injury helped quite a bit. I feel that I have solid TEs as well. St Louis D should be much improved with coaching change and addition of witherspoon. Oakland D has speedster Carr who could be a return threat. QBs could be better but could be worse. High upside on the Martz Detroit pick and heres to hoping Greise takes over in Chicago sooner rather than later.

Very happy with the draft. Thanks for organizing and dealing with draft bs anarchy. This should be a very fun league to monitor.

[nightshift 0]

Now that the draft is over, here is some info from the Draft Dominator. This uses version 7.0d, updated today for latest projections, strength of schedule, etc. I did not adjust projections, so I think these are Joe & David's projections as of 8/9. Obviously, that means there will be plenty of disagreement, plus some projections are out of date (Suggs, for example).Still, I like the results.

Team				  Points	VBD----				  ------  -------Just Win Baby		 2680.1   1380.0Jiggyonthehut		 2672.9   1372.0Pimpin' Ain't Easy	2654.4   1354.0   - 15th rounder Henry to miss 4 games?Jackal King		   2634.7   1333.0   - 5th rounder Branch to miss regular season games?nightshift			2634.0   1341.0   - 10th rounder Vinatieri hurt... will he miss regular season games?gocats				2624.2   1323.0   - 6th rounder KRob likely to be cut... likely 0 for seasonFlying Porkchops	  2577.5   1313.0   - 11th rounder Lewis hurt... will he miss regular season games?   - Will Gostkowski beat out Gramatica?Reaper				2562.5   1262.0   - Cundiff cut... likely 0 from one K spotJimmy D			   2539.7   1276.0   - Will 8th rounder Porter and/or 14th rounder Mike Williams play?Dreamers			  2533.9   1232.0renesauz			  2503.7   1242.0   - 6th rounder Stevens likely to miss regular season games   - How much will 7th rounder Martin play?bicycle seat sniffer  2501.5   -711.0   - 15th rounder Edinger is a 0Bruno2				2493.9   1231.0Duckboy			   2458.7   1157.0   - Rogers likely to be cut... only an 18th rounder, but likely 0Fiddles			   2387.0   1125.0Thrown to the Frogs   2288.1  -2812.0   - Will 14th rounder Boston be cut?   - Will Gramatica beat out Gostkowski?

I'm kind of disappointed that guys are not more interested in talking about their teams and/or draft strategies. Added some questions/issues to the list above.

It doesn't sound like AV will be out during the season. :fingerscrossed:Can you update the projections & run it with current ones?

[Pimpin Ain't Easy 5]

Now that the draft is over, here is some info from the Draft Dominator. This uses version 7.0d, updated today for latest projections, strength of schedule, etc. I did not adjust projections, so I think these are Joe & David's projections as of 8/9. Obviously, that means there will be plenty of disagreement, plus some projections are out of date (Suggs, for example).Still, I like the results.

Team				  Points	VBD----				  ------  -------Just Win Baby		 2680.1   1380.0Jiggyonthehut		 2672.9   1372.0Pimpin' Ain't Easy	2654.4   1354.0   - 15th rounder Henry to miss 4 games?Jackal King		   2634.7   1333.0   - 5th rounder Branch to miss regular season games?nightshift			2634.0   1341.0   - 10th rounder Vinatieri hurt... will he miss regular season games?gocats				2624.2   1323.0   - 6th rounder KRob likely to be cut... likely 0 for seasonFlying Porkchops	  2577.5   1313.0   - 11th rounder Lewis hurt... will he miss regular season games?   - Will Gostkowski beat out Gramatica?Reaper				2562.5   1262.0   - Cundiff cut... likely 0 from one K spotJimmy D			   2539.7   1276.0   - Will 8th rounder Porter and/or 14th rounder Mike Williams play?Dreamers			  2533.9   1232.0renesauz			  2503.7   1242.0   - 6th rounder Stevens likely to miss regular season games   - How much will 7th rounder Martin play?bicycle seat sniffer  2501.5   -711.0   - 15th rounder Edinger is a 0Bruno2				2493.9   1231.0Duckboy			   2458.7   1157.0   - Rogers likely to be cut... only an 18th rounder, but likely 0Fiddles			   2387.0   1125.0Thrown to the Frogs   2288.1  -2812.0   - Will 14th rounder Boston be cut?   - Will Gramatica beat out Gostkowski?

I'm kind of disappointed that guys are not more interested in talking about their teams and/or draft strategies. Added some questions/issues to the list above.

When I drafted Chris Henry, I figured I was risking a 4 game suspension, but IMO, he will still outscore the other WR's drafted around that spot, so I think it will work out.

[Just Win Baby 2,112]

Now that the draft is over, here is some info from the Draft Dominator. This uses version 7.0d, updated today for latest projections, strength of schedule, etc. I did not adjust projections, so I think these are Joe & David's projections as of 8/9. Obviously, that means there will be plenty of disagreement, plus some projections are out of date (Suggs, for example).Still, I like the results.

Team				  Points	VBD----				  ------  -------Just Win Baby		 2680.1   1380.0Jiggyonthehut		 2672.9   1372.0Pimpin' Ain't Easy	2654.4   1354.0   - 15th rounder Henry to miss 4 games?Jackal King		   2634.7   1333.0   - 5th rounder Branch to miss regular season games?nightshift			2634.0   1341.0   - 10th rounder Vinatieri hurt... will he miss regular season games?gocats				2624.2   1323.0   - 6th rounder KRob likely to be cut... likely 0 for seasonFlying Porkchops	  2577.5   1313.0   - 11th rounder Lewis hurt... will he miss regular season games?   - Will Gostkowski beat out Gramatica?Reaper				2562.5   1262.0   - Cundiff cut... likely 0 from one K spotJimmy D			   2539.7   1276.0   - Will 8th rounder Porter and/or 14th rounder Mike Williams play?Dreamers			  2533.9   1232.0renesauz			  2503.7   1242.0   - 6th rounder Stevens likely to miss regular season games   - How much will 7th rounder Martin play?bicycle seat sniffer  2501.5   -711.0   - 15th rounder Edinger is a 0Bruno2				2493.9   1231.0Duckboy			   2458.7   1157.0   - Rogers likely to be cut... only an 18th rounder, but likely 0Fiddles			   2387.0   1125.0Thrown to the Frogs   2288.1  -2812.0   - Will 14th rounder Boston be cut?   - Will Gramatica beat out Gostkowski?

I'm kind of disappointed that guys are not more interested in talking about their teams and/or draft strategies. Added some questions/issues to the list above.

It doesn't sound like AV will be out during the season. :fingerscrossed:Can you update the projections & run it with current ones?

For 8/21 projections:

Team				  Points  VBDJust Win Baby		 2703.6  1375Jiggyonthehut		 2690.5  1363Pimpin' Ain't Easy	2638.3  1309Jackal King		   2621.2  1291nightshift			2579.8  1250Flying Porkchops	  2554.3  1262renesauz			  2534.6  1239Reaper				2515.7  1185Dreamers			  2509.7  1181bicycle seat sniffer  2506.9  -733gocats				2471.1  1143Jimmy D			   2444.1  1151Bruno2				2442.9  1151Thrown to the Frogs   2361.7  -841Fiddles			   2360.4  1066Duckboy			   2228.0   900

Looks like some of those questions I mentioned above have been taken into account in some of these projections.

[bicycle_seat_sniffer 4,627]

I need Edinger to sign on somewhere.

[nightshift 0]

Now that the draft is over, here is some info from the Draft Dominator. This uses version 7.0d, updated today for latest projections, strength of schedule, etc. I did not adjust projections, so I think these are Joe & David's projections as of 8/9. Obviously, that means there will be plenty of disagreement, plus some projections are out of date (Suggs, for example).Still, I like the results.

Team				  Points	VBD----				  ------  -------Just Win Baby		 2680.1   1380.0Jiggyonthehut		 2672.9   1372.0Pimpin' Ain't Easy	2654.4   1354.0   - 15th rounder Henry to miss 4 games?Jackal King		   2634.7   1333.0   - 5th rounder Branch to miss regular season games?nightshift			2634.0   1341.0   - 10th rounder Vinatieri hurt... will he miss regular season games?gocats				2624.2   1323.0   - 6th rounder KRob likely to be cut... likely 0 for seasonFlying Porkchops	  2577.5   1313.0   - 11th rounder Lewis hurt... will he miss regular season games?   - Will Gostkowski beat out Gramatica?Reaper				2562.5   1262.0   - Cundiff cut... likely 0 from one K spotJimmy D			   2539.7   1276.0   - Will 8th rounder Porter and/or 14th rounder Mike Williams play?Dreamers			  2533.9   1232.0renesauz			  2503.7   1242.0   - 6th rounder Stevens likely to miss regular season games   - How much will 7th rounder Martin play?bicycle seat sniffer  2501.5   -711.0   - 15th rounder Edinger is a 0Bruno2				2493.9   1231.0Duckboy			   2458.7   1157.0   - Rogers likely to be cut... only an 18th rounder, but likely 0Fiddles			   2387.0   1125.0Thrown to the Frogs   2288.1  -2812.0   - Will 14th rounder Boston be cut?   - Will Gramatica beat out Gostkowski?

I'm kind of disappointed that guys are not more interested in talking about their teams and/or draft strategies. Added some questions/issues to the list above.

It doesn't sound like AV will be out during the season. :fingerscrossed:Can you update the projections & run it with current ones?

For 8/21 projections:

Team				  Points  VBDJust Win Baby		 2703.6  1375Jiggyonthehut		 2690.5  1363Pimpin' Ain't Easy	2638.3  1309Jackal King		   2621.2  1291nightshift			2579.8  1250Flying Porkchops	  2554.3  1262renesauz			  2534.6  1239Reaper				2515.7  1185Dreamers			  2509.7  1181bicycle seat sniffer  2506.9  -733gocats				2471.1  1143Jimmy D			   2444.1  1151Bruno2				2442.9  1151Thrown to the Frogs   2361.7  -841Fiddles			   2360.4  1066Duckboy			   2228.0   900

Looks like some of those questions I mentioned above have been taken into account in some of these projections.

Looks good. I think my squad is positioned nicely. The backup RB squad will contribute & when a starter gets hurt, look out!

[Jiggyonthehut 0]

Thrown to the Frogs

Pick Pos Player Team Points VBD ADP Overall

08.03 QB18 Philip Rivers SD/3 225.5 131 09.15 58

15.14 QB27 Alex Smith SF/7 191.7 97 14.14 94

01.14 RB7 Rudi Johnson Cin/5 204.4 168 01.10 22

02.03 RB11 Brian Westbrook Phi/9 183.1 147 01.13 38

04.03 RB24 Frank Gore SF/7 135.8 100 05.07 91

03.14 RB29 Joseph Addai Ind/6 129.3 93 04.02 102

05.14 RB36 Chris Brown Ten/7 99.2 63 05.13 133

06.03 WR30 Joe Horn NO/7 171.2 97 04.10 93

09.14 WR43 Michael Jenkins Atl/5 146.5 72 14.02 119

11.14 WR54 Eric Parker SD/3 122.7 49 12.15 152

14.03 WR130 David Boston TB/4 21 -53 --- 433

16.03 WR999 Hank Baskett Phi/9 0 -2000 9999 2000

07.14 TE16 Dallas Clark Ind/6 150 82 09.12 111

10.03 TE20 Bubba Franks GB/6 113.2 45 14.07 164

13.14 PK6 Jay Feely NYG/4 126 38 10.15 176

18.03 PK9999 Martin Gramatica NE/6 0 -2000 9999 9999

12.03 DEF12 Atlanta Atl/5 144.8 40 10.14 170

17.14 DEF29 New Orleans NO/7 123.7 19 --- 233

Wish you all the best, guy. Take comfort in the fact that you may have nabbed 5 starting RB's.

[gocats 0]

Damn KRob

[gocats 0]

Damn KRob

[Biabreakable 4,255]

Damn KRob

[Just Win Baby 2,112]

Now that the draft is over, here is some info from the Draft Dominator. This uses version 7.0d, updated today for latest projections, strength of schedule, etc. I did not adjust projections, so I think these are Joe & David's projections as of 8/9. Obviously, that means there will be plenty of disagreement, plus some projections are out of date (Suggs, for example).Still, I like the results.

Team				  Points	VBD----				  ------  -------Just Win Baby		 2680.1   1380.0Jiggyonthehut		 2672.9   1372.0Pimpin' Ain't Easy	2654.4   1354.0Jackal King		   2634.7   1333.0nightshift			2634.0   1341.0gocats				2624.2   1323.0Flying Porkchops	  2577.5   1313.0Reaper				2562.5   1262.0Jimmy D			   2539.7   1276.0Dreamers			  2533.9   1232.0renesauz			  2503.7   1242.0bicycle seat sniffer  2501.5   -711.0Bruno2				2493.9   1231.0Duckboy			   2458.7   1157.0Fiddles			   2387.0   1125.0Thrown to the Frogs   2288.1  -2812.0

For 8/21 projections:

Team				  Points  VBDJust Win Baby		 2703.6  1375Jiggyonthehut		 2690.5  1363Pimpin' Ain't Easy	2638.3  1309Jackal King		   2621.2  1291nightshift			2579.8  1250Flying Porkchops	  2554.3  1262renesauz			  2534.6  1239Reaper				2515.7  1185Dreamers			  2509.7  1181bicycle seat sniffer  2506.9  -733gocats				2471.1  1143Jimmy D			   2444.1  1151Bruno2				2442.9  1151Thrown to the Frogs   2361.7  -841Fiddles			   2360.4  1066Duckboy			   2228.0   900

For 8/28 DD projections:

Team				  Points  VBDJust Win Baby		 2710.9  1410Jiggyonthehut		 2695.2  1394Jackal King		   2655.3  1356Pimpin' Ain't Easy	2646.3  1346Flying Porkchops	  2625	1359nightshift			2607.5  1306Reaper				2587.9  1286gocats				2540.7  1242Dreamers			  2502.3  1201bicycle seat sniffer  2483.8  -728Bruno2				2445	1181Fiddles			   2419.9  1153Jimmy D			   2406.3  1141renesauz			  2388.5  1122Thrown to the Frogs   2365.7  -809Duckboy			   2242.1   940

I like the trend... my team stays at the top and has gained projected points with each update. That said, this doesn't project playoff points, and I'm not clear on how well it projects kicking and defense points.

[Just Win Baby 2,112]

Added more comments about my team in bold.

Comments on my team and my draft picks:

1.11 - Ronnie Brown - 9th RB off the board. I would have taken Gates if available, but otherwise I felt I had to secure one really good RB, given that I was planning to go where the value was throughout the draft, which I suspected meant not drafting many RBs early.

Stock: holding steady

2.6 - Torry Holt - 7th WR off the board. Great value IMO. I have him ranked as the top WR and had him next in my predraft list for the first round, after Brown. Of course, he is an N.C. State guy, so I am a little biased.

Stock: holding steady

3.11 - Todd Heap - 3rd TE taken. I couldn't believe the top TEs lasted so long in this draft given the scoring rules... the top few TEs will probably be in the top 10 scorers in this format. And in this format, points are points. This called for a

Stock: holding steady

4.6 - Fred Taylor - 30th RB off the board. I had unrealistically hoped that Foster or Dillon would make it from 3.11 to here. Ron Dayne was a theoretical consideration, but I just couldn't believe the hype and make myself select him, and that certainly looks like a good decision so far. I think Taylor will hold onto the starting job in Jacksonville. I don't envision a huge season, but I think he stands a reasonable chance of outperforming his draft position of RB30.

Stock: slightly up with Jones done for the year

5.11 - Randy McMichael - 10th TE off the board. Decided two top 10 TEs would be an advantage in this format, and also didn't see strong value at RB or WR and wasn't ready to consider QB yet. I think this pick probably made my draft more than any other individual pick. That is, while I got great value on Holt and Heap, those choices were more obvious IMO. This was a point where I could have gone in different directions with my draft, and I think this will turn out to have been a key decision.

Stock: slightly up due to how good Culpepper has looked

6.6 - Lee Evans - 28th WR off the board. Good value here IMO. Evans was WR24 and WR29 the past two seasons, with only 160 total targets and subpar QB play. Now Moulds, who had 276 targets over the past two seasons, is gone. Looking specifically at last season, Moulds got 129 targets and Evans 92 (tied for 41st in the league), yet Evans was WR29 and Moulds only WR35. This year, I expect Evans to get at least an additional 30 targets. Plus, I am hopeful the Bills' QB play might be at least a little better. All in all, Evans stands a decent chance of breaking the top 20. I also considered Glenn & Matt Jones here, but neither offer that type of value IMO. I also thought about QB, but decided to wait, with only 10 taken at that point. And I considered going flex with a 3rd TE, but ran some numbers and decided I'd be better off waiting for a WR flex... more on this later.

Stock: slightly up due to how good Evans has looked

7.11 - Green Bay Team QB - 18th Team QB taken. At this point, I was worried about getting stiffed with a lousy Team QB if I didn't get two soon, so I was planning to take two back to back. I wasn't thrilled with Green Bay's prospects, but they weren't bad value at that point... and the point wasn't the value of this pick, anyway, but rather the fact that I had to take my first Team QB here in order to take the second at 8.6 and avoid the bad value of the bottom QBs. I was hoping San Diego would slide to 8.6... if any of you read the Rivers threads you know I'm high on him. In retrospect, I wish I had taken SD here instead of GB, especially now having seen GB's dismal OL in the first preseason game... but hopefully their OL will only get better from here.

Stock: holding steady

8.6 - Washington Team QB - 21st Team QB taken. Looking just at NFL team passing numbers last year, Washington finished 9th in this scoring system, ignoring QB rushing and other positions' passing (e.g., Portis). That rank probably would drop a bit to literally reflect this format, but Washington appears to be good value here, especially considering that Washington seems to have improved its passing game (WRs) in the offseason.

Stock: holding steady

9.11 - Roddy White - one of the last #1 WRs left. I have been targeting him this offseason, and explained why in multiple Roddy White threads. He was the 47th WR selected, and I think he stands a good chance of cracking the top 30. And I thought that before I learned about Crumpler missing the preseason while recovering from his knee surgery.

Stock: slightly down with trade for Lelie

10.6 - Tampa Bay Defense - 5th defense taken and likely a top 5 performer. No great value, but highest point scorer on the board, and ensured I wouldn't get frozen out of a defense run. This is not normal strategy for me, but I wasn't willing to take lesser value at RB or WR while passing up all these points.

Stock: holding steady

11.11 - Baltimore Defense - 8th defense taken, so possibly a bit of a value. Again, highest point scorer on the board. I was hoping to help trigger a run on defenses. At this point, I had seen what nightshift and Pimpin' were doing in ignoring RBs, and for nightshift also WRs, and I saw merit in it. Again, points are points. That said, in retrospect, I probably could have waited on the second defense. I expected a run to start sooner.

Stock: holding steady

12.6 - David Akers - Boy, this is serious deviation from my normal strategy. 6th kicker taken. With 20 picks before my next pick, and needing 2 kickers, I wanted to guard against getting stuck with a couple bottom half kickers and the possibility of one of them not earning a starting job, thus leaving me minus 90+ points. This pick ensured I could take my second kicker whenever I needed to if a run started. (Listen to me, talking about kicker runs!) I could have waited on this, but did lock in solid points here.

Stock: holding steady

13.11 - Michael Pittman - 57th RB taken. Finally I was compelled to add my third RB. I like Pittman here, because I am skeptical Caddy can handle the full load. If there isn't a regular role for Pittman, I think Caddy stands a good chance of breaking down. Pittman averaged 155 fantasy points per game in Gruden's offense from 2002-2004, and scored 192 fantasy points in 13 games as recently as 2004. If Caddy goes down, Pittman should be great. But even without that, I should get a solid 75+ fantasy points here. That's as good as it gets in this range of RBs, unless you stumble into a home run pick, like a Gado from last season.

Stock: holding steady

14.6 - Antwan Randle El - 71st WR off the board. Excellent value, considering he should be Washington's WR2. Last year, he was WR52 as Pittsburgh's WR2, despite the fact that Pittsburgh attempted only 379 passes, last in the league, and Randle El had only 70 targets. Washington had 482 passing attempts last season, and their WR2 when healthy was Patten, who had 53 targets in only 9 games. So even though Washington has other good targets in Moss, Cooley, and Lloyd, I think Randle El should easily exceed his 70 targets from last year, particularly if Portis's injury lingers into the regular season. And Randle El's versatility helps, as he will presumably add a few fantasy points on rushes and passes. So I think he is a lock for a top 50 WR with a decent chance at top 30-40.

Stock: holding steady

15.11 - Derrick Blaylock - 62nd RB taken. With Martin's situation not looking good, Blaylock should at worst have a role in a RBBC, and at best could possibly win the job. I'm not counting on that, but he should have a good opportunity to play. I think he'll play ahead of Washington. The Suggs non-trade indicates some risk, as the Jets may still add another RB... but it is unlikely they will add a feature back, so the committee should be there regardless.

Stock: slightly down with the Barlow trade

16.6 - Ryan Longwell - 17th kicker taken. Surprised he lasted. Last year he was only K26 as the GB offense imploded. But the 3 prior years he was top 6 (FBG player page scoring)... in Green Bay! Now he is in a dome on an offense that might be just good enough to move the ball but could lack red zone threats.

Stock: holding steady

17.11 - Jabar Gaffney - 83rd WR taken. I expect Gaffney to be in the slot, and he has a good chance at 40+ catches. At this point in the draft, catches and playing time carry a lot of weight. I decided to try to find some level of steady production as opposed to swinging for the fences with high upside but low expectations. And in addition to his likely production, I think Gaffney has some upside if Westbrook misses much time and/or if Baskett doesn't live up to his recent hype.

Stock: down due to Stallworth trade... I expected him to be WR2 but now it seems he'll be behind both Brown and Stallworth (and Smith and Westbrook)

18.6 - Dante Hall - 85th WR taken. I was hoping Cotchery would last to this point. I considered Vincent Jackson here, and it was a tough call. I think Jackson has more upside, but I am hoping Hall gets more touches.

Stock: holding steady

This team had the highest total points and the highest VBD using the latest Draft Dominator standard projections, which I assume are David & Joe's. I doubt I took its recommended pick more than a few times, so I certainly didn't make an attempt to follow those projections exactly. For that matter, I don't think it made particularly good recommendations, given the league and lineup sizes and the many viable draft strategies. That said, I'm glad it thinks my team looks good.

That took a while, so I'll add some other observations later.

Overall, my team is holding fairly steady. My only real downgrades so far are to players who were to be small contributors.

Also, I like the fact that almost all of my players (all except Evans, Blaylock, and the Green Bay Team QB IMO) have a shot at the playoffs. I doubt that many will make it, but hopefully half of them will.

[renesauz 2,567]

Losing two RB's screwed me over good. I dropped from middle of the pack and competetive(according to DD) to #14 since the draft ended.

[Fiddles 231]

Losing two RB's screwed me over good. I dropped from middle of the pack and competetive(according to DD) to #14 since the draft ended.

not to mention jstevens, djax, and sinoriceu are in trouble buddy

[Just Win Baby 2,112]

Wow, tough week for Duckboy.

Dom Davis = IR

Ron Dayne = cut

Charles Rogers = cut

Zach Hilton = cut

Better luck next year.

[Just Win Baby 2,112]

Now that the draft is over, here is some info from the Draft Dominator. This uses version 7.0d, updated today for latest projections, strength of schedule, etc. I did not adjust projections, so I think these are Joe & David's projections as of 8/9. Obviously, that means there will be plenty of disagreement, plus some projections are out of date (Suggs, for example).Still, I like the results.

Team				  Points	VBD----				  ------  -------Just Win Baby		 2680.1   1380.0Jiggyonthehut		 2672.9   1372.0Pimpin' Ain't Easy	2654.4   1354.0Jackal King		   2634.7   1333.0nightshift			2634.0   1341.0gocats				2624.2   1323.0Flying Porkchops	  2577.5   1313.0Reaper				2562.5   1262.0Jimmy D			   2539.7   1276.0Dreamers			  2533.9   1232.0renesauz			  2503.7   1242.0bicycle seat sniffer  2501.5   -711.0Bruno2				2493.9   1231.0Duckboy			   2458.7   1157.0Fiddles			   2387.0   1125.0Thrown to the Frogs   2288.1  -2812.0

For 8/21 projections:

Team				  Points  VBDJust Win Baby		 2703.6  1375Jiggyonthehut		 2690.5  1363Pimpin' Ain't Easy	2638.3  1309Jackal King		   2621.2  1291nightshift			2579.8  1250Flying Porkchops	  2554.3  1262renesauz			  2534.6  1239Reaper				2515.7  1185Dreamers			  2509.7  1181bicycle seat sniffer  2506.9  -733gocats				2471.1  1143Jimmy D			   2444.1  1151Bruno2				2442.9  1151Thrown to the Frogs   2361.7  -841Fiddles			   2360.4  1066Duckboy			   2228.0   900

For 8/28 DD projections:

Team				  Points  VBDJust Win Baby		 2710.9  1410Jiggyonthehut		 2695.2  1394Jackal King		   2655.3  1356Pimpin' Ain't Easy	2646.3  1346Flying Porkchops	  2625	1359nightshift			2607.5  1306Reaper				2587.9  1286gocats				2540.7  1242Dreamers			  2502.3  1201bicycle seat sniffer  2483.8  -728Bruno2				2445	1181Fiddles			   2419.9  1153Jimmy D			   2406.3  1141renesauz			  2388.5  1122Thrown to the Frogs   2365.7  -809Duckboy			   2242.1   940

I like the trend... my team stays at the top and has gained projected points with each update. That said, this doesn't project playoff points, and I'm not clear on how well it projects kicking and defense points.

9/2 projections:

Team					Points  VBDJiggyonthehut		   2692.9  1378Pimpin' Ain't Easy	  2685.3  1371Just Win Baby		   2670.3  1354Flying Porkchops		2629.4  1349nightshift			  2584.2  1259Reaper				  2548.4  1233gocats				  2520.5  1206Fiddles				 2498.3  1217bicycle seat sniffer	2483.7  -741Dreamers				2462.8  1148Jackal King			 2460.8  1144Jimmy D				 2415.9  1137Bruno2				  2408	1128renesauz				2362	1082Thrown to the Frogs	 2329.2  -860Duckboy				 2146.6   832

Uh oh...

[Fiddles 231]

wow i went from 15 to 8

lundi in the last round mustve done it