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2008 Rookie Draft Picks (1 Viewer)

Is it worth moving from 1.04 to 1.02 or 1.03, and if so how much would you be willing to give up to move up/how much would it take for you to make the trade?
I wouldn't be so quick to trade up, at least until after the Draft. There may not be much of a difference in perceived value between 1.2 and 1.4 (or even 1.5).After McFadden (who's perceived value and inevidible top-10 NFL pick status will almost gurantee him 1.1 in every draft), then you have Stewart and Mendenhall who should both be NFL 1st Rounders. I think the only thing that will separate their fantasy draft value will be the team they go to.But in taking a look at some teams' (potentiallY) big hole at RB (Oak, Hou, Cle, Sea, Den etc.)... guys like Ray Rice and Felix Jones could get put into an IDEAL situation, which would then not look like such a significant dropoff from 1.2 when you're talking 4th overall.On the plus side, Mendenhall I would say is far more likely to become an every-down 'back regardless of where he lands, but in the right scheme, Rice and Jones I think could be just as valuable.....As you can tell, I'm optimistic... since I have #5 overall :goodposting:
I disagree. There are only 3-4 legitimate first round RB talents in this draft class: Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, and Felix Jones. If you have a high rookie pick then I think you need to find a way to get one of these guys on your team because there's a significant talent difference between them and the rest of the field.Don't believe the hype about the second and third tier guys. In the end, even if those players land in ideal situations they probably don't have the talent needed to survive as starters in the league. Consider the recent optimism in rookie drafts for other second tier RBs who were drafted into favorable situations: Brandon Jackson, Chris Henry, Lorenzo Booker, Michael Bush, Brian Calhoun, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton, Vernand Morency, Ryan Moats, Tatum Bell, Chris Brown, Onterrio Smith, Justin Fargas, and Lee Suggs. How many of these guys do you want on your FF team? Granted, there have also been some success stories (Gore, Portis, MJD), but the odds are not very good. Guys who fall into the 2nd-3rd round usually do so for a reason. I think this class will probably yield 1-2 surprise backs, but most of the guys in that second and third tier area will fail to make a major dent at the pro level. It's worth moving up for Stewart or Mendenhall if you can get a decent price.
I agree with your value assesment of the picks 1.1-1.6. The problem is... I think that it's also obvious to most owners, and I'd think it would cost a pretty penny to move up only 1 or 2 spots.
Definitely possible. I just don't think people should draft under the assumption that a second tier back in a good situation = Mendenhall or Stewart. Most of the worst picks in my rookie drafts have been when an owner has reached for a marginally talented RB in the top 3-6 picks. Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Kevin Smith, Steve Slaton, Matt Forte, Mike Hart, and Tashard Choice all have flaws as prospects, which is why they won't be taken in the first round. One or two of those guys will probably become good NFL players, but it's important to realize that most of them will never amount to much.
Well one thing to keep in mind, that I guess I didn't make clear... my point was that right now it's going to cost alot more to move up from 1.5 to 1.3 than it may after the draft. Because right now, all 1.3 owners have in mind is that Mendenhall/Stewart are much more highly ranked, therefore they will ask the farm to trade down 1-2 spots. (As we can tell by the previous post)If Houston or Cleveland doesn't sign a big-time FA and drafts a guy like Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, Charles, or Rice.... then that players' perceived value will be much higher than it was going into the draft therefore making the gap between 2/3 and 4/5 smaller.I'm not saying Charles in Houston = Mendenhall in ATL by any means, but at least with that gap seemingly lessened, that it might be easier to then make that trade-up.
I agree here. In one league I have 1.2 and 1.4 and I enquired about moving up from 1.4 to 1.3 and the price was way too high, so I think I will wait until after the draft and see where Felix Jones goes and I bet I will have a lot of people asking about that pick then. I think the same can be said for 1.5 and maybe even 1.6. I agree with EBF that the talents there will be less but I can picture a Ray Rice getting drafted by CHI in the 2nd or 3rd and owners getting real excited and the price going up.So overall, I would say buy 1.4 and 1.5 now if your leaguemates are thinking like EBF and then turn around and sell post draft. I think you could have made a lot last year doing this with 1.4 and selling to someone who thought Brandon Jackson would be the starter in GB.
I traded Brandon Jackson and Matt Jones post draft last year for Fred Taylor and Reggie Brown.
 
Looks like EBF was onto something. It appears the gap between Mcfadden and Stewart/Mendenhall is closing. However, despite what Mayock thinks, i still think Mcfadden will be the first RB off the board. Him slipping in the draft might also help him, as the Bengals and Broncos could be likely destinations if he slides past the Patriots at 7. Of course so much could change after Sunday.

 
Official heights and weights should trickle in throughout the next day or two. So far:

Jonathan Stewart - 5'10" 235

Limas Sweed - 6'4" 216

Malcolm Kelly - 6'3.5" 224

DeSean Jackson - 5'9" 167

 
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DeSean Jackson - 5'9" 167
I forget where on this board I tried to tell someone that there was no way Jackson was 6' as he was listed at Cal. I mentioned his best chance to succeed would be to model himself after Santana Moss or Steve Smith. I'm not sure he'll ever be able to bulk up like those two guys though. Seems he'll need to develop a big chip on his shoulder like Smith to prove me wrong.
 
***POST-COMBINE UPDATE***

now with an arbitrary ranking scale!

Color Chart: Risers, Fallers

The lists are based upon the fantasy upside of these players in their best potential situation.

Overall Top 12

1. RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois* [95]

2. RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas* [94]

3. RB Jonathan Stewart, Oregon* [92]

4. RB Ray Rice, Rutgers* [79]

5. RB Felix Jones, Arkansas* [78]

6. RB Kevin Smith, Central Florida* [76]

t7. RB Chris Johnson, East Carolina [75]

t7. WR Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma [75]

t9. RB Matt Forte, Tulane [74]

t9. WR Limas Sweed, Texas [74]

11. WR James Hardy, Indiana* [73]

12. RB Jamaal Charles, Texas* [72]

By Position

QBs

QB1 Upside

Matt Ryan, Boston College [69]

Brian Brohm, Louisville [62]

Fantasy Backup Upside

Joe Flacco, Delaware [55]

Chad Henne, Michigan [53]

Andre Woodson, Kentucky [52]

Josh Johnson, San Diego [51]

John David Booty, USC [49]

Kevin O'Connell, San Diego State [46]

Fantasy Longshots

Dennis Dixon, Oregon [41]

Colt Brennan, Hawaii [40]

Eric Ainge, Tennessee [36]

Sam Keller, Nebraska [33]

Matt Flynn, LSU [31]

Paul Smith, Tulsa [30]

Bernard Morris, Marshall [30]

RBs

RB1 Upside

Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois* [95]

Darren McFadden, Arkansas* [94]

Jonathan Stewart, Oregon* [92]

RB2 Upside

Ray Rice, Rutgers* [79]

Felix Jones, Arkansas* [78]

Kevin Smith, Central Florida* [76]

Chris Johnson, East Carolina [75]

Matt Forte, Tulane [74]

Jamaal Charles, Texas* [72]

Tashard Choice, Georgia Tech [67]

Steve Slaton, West Virginia* [64]

Thomas Brown, Georgia [60]

Fantasy Backup Upside/Longshots

Mike Hart, Michigan [54]

Justin Forsett, California [49]

Jalen Parlmele, Toledo [45]

Corey Boyd, South Carolina [43]

Allen Patrick, Oklahoma [43]

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Ole Miss [43]

Chauncey Washington, USC [43]

Dantrell Savage, Oklahoma State [38]

Rafael Little, Kentucky [37]

Xavier Omon, NW Missouri State [33]

Chad Simpson, Morgan State [33]

Ryan Torain, Arizona [30]

Kalvin McRae, Ohio [30]

Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State [29]

WRs

WR1 Upside

Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma* [75]

Limas Sweed, Texas [74]

James Hardy, Indiana* [73]

Devin Thomas, Michigan State* [69]

WR2 Upside

Mario Manningham, Michigan* [65]

Early Doucet, LSU [63]

Andre Caldwell, Florida [63]

Earl Bennett, Vanderbilt* [63]

DeSean Jackson, California* [62]

WR3 Upside

Lavelle Hawkins, California [58]

Jordy Nelson, Kansas State [56]

Jerome Simpson, Coastal Carolina [55]

Keenan Burton, Kentucky [55]

Eddie Royal, Virginia Tech [55]

Paul Hubbard, Wisconsin [53]

Pierre Garcon, Mount Union [51]

Donnie Avery, Houston [48]

Harry Douglas, Louisville [48]

Dorien Bryant, Purdue [48]

D.J. Hall, Alabama [47]

William Franklin, Missouri [47]

Dexter Jackson, Appalachian State [45]

Marcus Smith, New Mexico [45]

Adrian Arrington, Michigan* [45]

Arman Shields, Richmond [45]

Darius Reynaud, West Virginia* [43]

Adarius Bowman, Oklahoma State [42]

Fantasy Backup Upside/Longshots

Davone Bess, Hawaii* [39]

Ryan Grice-Mullen, Hawaii* [37]

Steve Johnson, Kentucky [37]

Marcus Monk, Arkansas [37]

Jaymar Johnson, Jackson State [37]

Justin Harper, Virginia Tech [37]

Josh Morgan, Virginia Tech [37]

Mario Urrutia, Louisville* [36]

Kevin Robinson, Utah State [35]

Anthony Alridge, Houston [35]

Jason Rivers, Hawaii [34]

Mark Bradford, Stanford [34]

Marcus Henry, Kansas [34]

Travis Brown, New Mexico [34]

Todd Blythe, Iowa State [32]

Taj Smith, Syracuse* [32]

Kenneth Moore, Wake Forest [32]

Maurice Purify, Nebraska [32]

Darnell Jenkins, Miami (FL) [31]

Brandon Breazell, UCLA [30]

Jabari Arthur, Akron [30]

Danny Amendola, Texas Tech [30]

Michael Henderson, Georgia [30]

Robert Jordan, California [30]

Darrell Blackmon, North Carolina State [30]

TEs

TE1 Upside

Fred Davis, USC [56]

Martellus Bennett, Texas A&M* [53]

Dustin Keller, Purdue [49]

Fantasy Backup Upside

John Carlson, Notre Dame [39]

Brad Cottam, Tennessee [35]

Jermichael Finley, Texas* [34]

Kellen Davis, Michigan State [32]

 
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Darius Reynaud should appear somewhere in a list of WRs that long. You have about 50 listed. About 30 - 35 will get drafted. Reynaud will be drafted.

Great lists to work from, btw. Thanks.

 
Darius Reynaud should appear somewhere in a list of WRs that long. You have about 50 listed. About 30 - 35 will get drafted. Reynaud will be drafted. Great lists to work from, btw. Thanks.
Odd. I had him on my list, and I must've deleted him by mistake last week.He had a very good showing today, but it's tough to move him up too high due to his height.
 
***INITIAL POST-COMBINE UPDATE***

Color Chart: Risers, Fallers

The lists are based upon the fantasy upside of these players in their best potential situation.

Starting to think of moving Devin Thomas upto WR1 right behind Kelly? Thoughts?
 
Darius Reynaud should appear somewhere in a list of WRs that long. You have about 50 listed. About 30 - 35 will get drafted. Reynaud will be drafted. Great lists to work from, btw. Thanks.
Odd. I had him on my list, and I must've deleted him by mistake last week.He had a very good showing today, but it's tough to move him up too high due to his height.
I've had great luck picking WRs the past few years. I was in love with Marshall two years ago and James Jones last year. I love Reynaud's strength and balance with the ball. He made big plays in college very similar to what Steve Smith (Car.) does in the NFL. Short pass, huge play. He has some Welker in him in that he is in and out of his cuts in the blink of an eye. I'm not ready to go eeeee on him, but I've been a big fan for a couple years. Truly a reliable slot guy with a lot of courage, great hands, and take it to the house playmaking skills. His return skills should get him drafted and help him stick. You put him in the right spot, WR3 upside,but I see that as a big tier sorted out by draft day, not an orderly ranking.
 
Starting to think of moving Devin Thomas upto WR1 right behind Kelly? Thoughts?
Well Thomas was almost as impressive today as Manningham was dissapointing, so I had to flip those two.I see no reason to have him outside the top 4, but it's tough to move him into the 1st tier of guys since he's basically a 1-year wonder.
 
Starting to think of moving Devin Thomas upto WR1 right behind Kelly? Thoughts?
WR1 behind Kelly??? What's he, WR0? Good call, btw. I have a friend of a friend who's cousin's uncle is in Indy and Thomas WR1 is definitely being tossed around the lobbies and bars. Chad Jackson had a similar rise. Thomas is a more complete player. I don't like the lack of elite talent in the WR pool, but the depth is impressive and the subtle similarities to so many nice players makes ranking impossible, but tiers, tiers in flowcharts, pretty fun to organize. Thomas doesn't fit neatly into the flowchart. He stands out to me. I may only be making sense to myself here. :shrug:
 
Darius Reynaud should appear somewhere in a list of WRs that long. You have about 50 listed. About 30 - 35 will get drafted. Reynaud will be drafted. Great lists to work from, btw. Thanks.
Odd. I had him on my list, and I must've deleted him by mistake last week.He had a very good showing today, but it's tough to move him up too high due to his height.
I've had great luck picking WRs the past few years. I was in love with Marshall two years ago and James Jones last year. I love Reynaud's strength and balance with the ball. He made big plays in college very similar to what Steve Smith (Car.) does in the NFL. Short pass, huge play. He has some Welker in him in that he is in and out of his cuts in the blink of an eye. I'm not ready to go eeeee on him, but I've been a big fan for a couple years. Truly a reliable slot guy with a lot of courage, great hands, and take it to the house playmaking skills. His return skills should get him drafted and help him stick. You put him in the right spot, WR3 upside,but I see that as a big tier sorted out by draft day, not an orderly ranking.
Situation will obviously dictate where the players' final ranking lands within the tiers, moreso than where they are actially drafted. If a guy like Reynaud or Royal is drafted by a team like San Fran.... :shrug: :shrug: :doh:
 
Starting to think of moving Devin Thomas upto WR1 right behind Kelly? Thoughts?
WR1 behind Kelly??? What's he, WR0? Good call, btw. I have a friend of a friend who's cousin's uncle is in Indy and Thomas WR1 is definitely being tossed around the lobbies and bars. Chad Jackson had a similar rise. Thomas is a more complete player. I don't like the lack of elite talent in the WR pool, but the depth is impressive and the subtle similarities to so many nice players makes ranking impossible, but tiers, tiers in flowcharts, pretty fun to organize. Thomas doesn't fit neatly into the flowchart. He stands out to me. I may only be making sense to myself here. :heart:
Thomas also fits into the category of players that will be drafted early in real life due to their ability to contribute in the return game. Other RBs and WRs I see fitting into this category: DeSean Jackson, Chris Johnson, Donnie Avery, Felix Jones, Eddie Royal, Kevin Robinson, Anthony Alridge, Dorien Bryant, Harry Douglas, Darius Reynaud, Dexter Jackson, Will Franklin, Michael Henderson, Keenan Burton, and Andre Caldwell
 
Starting to think of moving Devin Thomas upto WR1 right behind Kelly? Thoughts?
WR1 behind Kelly??? What's he, WR0? Good call, btw. I have a friend of a friend who's cousin's uncle is in Indy and Thomas WR1 is definitely being tossed around the lobbies and bars. Chad Jackson had a similar rise. Thomas is a more complete player. I don't like the lack of elite talent in the WR pool, but the depth is impressive and the subtle similarities to so many nice players makes ranking impossible, but tiers, tiers in flowcharts, pretty fun to organize. Thomas doesn't fit neatly into the flowchart. He stands out to me. I may only be making sense to myself here. :unsure:
Definitely possible. I think Kelly is the clear WR1. After that it seems like there's a pretty tight cluster of value with Jackson, Thomas, Caldwell, Sweed, and Doucet. Those guys are jockeying for spots in the 15-50 range. Royal looks like a solid bet for the top 75. Never understood the Manningham love. Not even convinced he was the best WR on his college team.ETA: Lavelle Hawkins will also be a first day pick in spite of a mediocre performance today. 2nd-3rd round.
 
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Starting to think of moving Devin Thomas upto WR1 right behind Kelly? Thoughts?
WR1 behind Kelly??? What's he, WR0? Good call, btw. I have a friend of a friend who's cousin's uncle is in Indy and Thomas WR1 is definitely being tossed around the lobbies and bars. Chad Jackson had a similar rise. Thomas is a more complete player. I don't like the lack of elite talent in the WR pool, but the depth is impressive and the subtle similarities to so many nice players makes ranking impossible, but tiers, tiers in flowcharts, pretty fun to organize. Thomas doesn't fit neatly into the flowchart. He stands out to me. I may only be making sense to myself here. :popcorn:
Definitely possible. I think Kelly is the clear WR1. After that it seems like there's a pretty tight cluster of value with Jackson, Thomas, Caldwell, Sweed, and Doucet. Those guys are jockeying for spots in the 15-50 range. Royal looks like a solid bet for the top 75. Never understood the Manningham love. Not even convinced he was the best WR on his college team.

ETA: Lavelle Hawkins will also be a first day pick in spite of a mediocre performance today. 2nd-3rd round.
I didn't like Hawkins' showing yesterday. He was slower than previously thought to be in the 40. His footwork and speed in the route-running drills also did not look impressive. In a day where several of these WRs looked impressive, it's hard not to move certain guys ahead of him.
 
Darius Reynaud should appear somewhere in a list of WRs that long. You have about 50 listed. About 30 - 35 will get drafted. Reynaud will be drafted. Great lists to work from, btw. Thanks.
DR really improved his stock at the combine. I was expecting to see his vert a lot higher, but his bench and routes were great. I havnt checked his broad, but I would guess top10 if not top5.He looked very fluid on his routes. Saw softer hands than during his season, though almost as many balls at the combine than I saw him catch in season :angry: . I think he versatility, strength, and hands could bring him into the first day. FYI he was a RB all throughout HS
 
My current Top 15 RBs, FWIW:

1) D McFadden

2) J Stewart

3) R Mendenhall

4) R Rice

5) M Forte

6) F Jones

7) K Smith

8) C Johnson

9) T Choice

10) S Slaton

11) J Charles

12) J Forsett

13) M Hart

14) B Green-Ellis

15) T Brown

 
My current Top 15 RBs, FWIW:1) D McFadden2) J Stewart3) R Mendenhall4) R Rice5) M Forte6) F Jones7) K Smith8) C Johnson9) T Choice10) S Slaton11) J Charles12) J Forsett13) M Hart14) B Green-Ellis15) T Brown
FYI, I have Choice way way higher than you. Haha.
Yeah, I do like him but I have some doubts. I have film on him, Jones and Johnson still to watch and he could move ahead of them when I do.
 
My current Top 15 RBs, FWIW:1) D McFadden2) J Stewart3) R Mendenhall4) R Rice5) M Forte6) F Jones7) K Smith8) C Johnson9) T Choice10) S Slaton11) J Charles12) J Forsett13) M Hart14) B Green-Ellis15) T Brown
You're the first person I saw put F.Jones out of the top 4-5. Can you talk a little about this?
 
My current Top 15 RBs, FWIW:1) D McFadden2) J Stewart3) R Mendenhall4) R Rice5) M Forte6) F Jones7) K Smith8) C Johnson9) T Choice10) S Slaton11) J Charles12) J Forsett13) M Hart14) B Green-Ellis15) T Brown
You're the first person I saw put F.Jones out of the top 4-5. Can you talk a little about this?
Sure. It's more of liking Rice and Forte than not liking Jones, but I do have questions about his workload. I'm doing a study on College RB Touches and whether they relate to NFL success. It doesn't really appear so halfway through the study, but in my data set, which is all RBs drafted in the first 3 rounds since 2000, Felix Jones would have the second lowest number of touches per game (11.46) in his last college season in the data set. Only Brian Leonard at 10.08 touches a game is lower. The two guys above Jones would be Greg Jones and Eric Shelton. If you switch it to include overall touches instead of per game, you see names like Tony Hollings and Lamar Gordon. Now maybe it's a positive because he doesn't have a lot of tread on his tires. And McFadden is a great player so he certainly stole some carries. But I'd rather see a bigger body of work to rank him that high. I just started my BDTT on him and am using the LSU game. Of course in that game McFadden went wild and Jones had only 9 carries to McFadden's 32. But Peyton Hillis had 11 carries to Jones' 9 with a similar gaudy per carry average. So why is Hillis getting 11 carries instead of Jones getting 18 and Hillis getting 3? And with a guy like Hillis having similar success, maybe the gaudy average is due to scheme, tired defense, etc. Who knows, but until I break down that tape, I can't have him ahead of Rice and Forte.
 
Starting to think of moving Devin Thomas upto WR1 right behind Kelly? Thoughts?
WR1 behind Kelly??? What's he, WR0? Good call, btw. I have a friend of a friend who's cousin's uncle is in Indy and Thomas WR1 is definitely being tossed around the lobbies and bars. Chad Jackson had a similar rise. Thomas is a more complete player. I don't like the lack of elite talent in the WR pool, but the depth is impressive and the subtle similarities to so many nice players makes ranking impossible, but tiers, tiers in flowcharts, pretty fun to organize. Thomas doesn't fit neatly into the flowchart. He stands out to me. I may only be making sense to myself here. :excited:
Definitely possible. I think Kelly is the clear WR1. After that it seems like there's a pretty tight cluster of value with Jackson, Thomas, Caldwell, Sweed, and Doucet. Those guys are jockeying for spots in the 15-50 range. Royal looks like a solid bet for the top 75. Never understood the Manningham love. Not even convinced he was the best WR on his college team.ETA: Lavelle Hawkins will also be a first day pick in spite of a mediocre performance today. 2nd-3rd round.
I have liked Kelly more than the others for awhile, but not by that margain. Probably has a higher floor than those below him, but does not have the package of a top half of the draft guy. I believe this should be a repeat of the Santanio Holmes draft where not much until the number 20 or so spot, but plenty of prospects who will turn into quality NFL and fantasy WRs that you probably should not be picking until the 2nd round of either unless you are pretty confident you know what you are looking at.
 
coolnerd said:
Starting to think of moving Devin Thomas upto WR1 right behind Kelly? Thoughts?
WR1 behind Kelly??? What's he, WR0? Good call, btw. I have a friend of a friend who's cousin's uncle is in Indy and Thomas WR1 is definitely being tossed around the lobbies and bars. Chad Jackson had a similar rise. Thomas is a more complete player. I don't like the lack of elite talent in the WR pool, but the depth is impressive and the subtle similarities to so many nice players makes ranking impossible, but tiers, tiers in flowcharts, pretty fun to organize. Thomas doesn't fit neatly into the flowchart. He stands out to me. I may only be making sense to myself here. :blackdot:
Definitely possible. I think Kelly is the clear WR1. After that it seems like there's a pretty tight cluster of value with Jackson, Thomas, Caldwell, Sweed, and Doucet. Those guys are jockeying for spots in the 15-50 range. Royal looks like a solid bet for the top 75. Never understood the Manningham love. Not even convinced he was the best WR on his college team.ETA: Lavelle Hawkins will also be a first day pick in spite of a mediocre performance today. 2nd-3rd round.
I have liked Kelly more than the others for awhile, but not by that margain. Probably has a higher floor than those below him, but does not have the package of a top half of the draft guy. I believe this should be a repeat of the Santanio Holmes draft where not much until the number 20 or so spot, but plenty of prospects who will turn into quality NFL and fantasy WRs that you probably should not be picking until the 2nd round of either unless you are pretty confident you know what you are looking at.
I think Kelly could've been a fringe top 10 pick with a good combine. If he has a good pro day then I think he'll go top 20 no question. Other than that I mostly agree. I think we'll see more than one first round WR though.
 
coolnerd said:
Starting to think of moving Devin Thomas upto WR1 right behind Kelly? Thoughts?
WR1 behind Kelly??? What's he, WR0? Good call, btw. I have a friend of a friend who's cousin's uncle is in Indy and Thomas WR1 is definitely being tossed around the lobbies and bars. Chad Jackson had a similar rise. Thomas is a more complete player. I don't like the lack of elite talent in the WR pool, but the depth is impressive and the subtle similarities to so many nice players makes ranking impossible, but tiers, tiers in flowcharts, pretty fun to organize. Thomas doesn't fit neatly into the flowchart. He stands out to me. I may only be making sense to myself here. :lmao:
Definitely possible. I think Kelly is the clear WR1. After that it seems like there's a pretty tight cluster of value with Jackson, Thomas, Caldwell, Sweed, and Doucet. Those guys are jockeying for spots in the 15-50 range. Royal looks like a solid bet for the top 75. Never understood the Manningham love. Not even convinced he was the best WR on his college team.ETA: Lavelle Hawkins will also be a first day pick in spite of a mediocre performance today. 2nd-3rd round.
I have liked Kelly more than the others for awhile, but not by that margain. Probably has a higher floor than those below him, but does not have the package of a top half of the draft guy. I believe this should be a repeat of the Santanio Holmes draft where not much until the number 20 or so spot, but plenty of prospects who will turn into quality NFL and fantasy WRs that you probably should not be picking until the 2nd round of either unless you are pretty confident you know what you are looking at.
I think Kelly could've been a fringe top 10 pick with a good combine. If he has a good pro day then I think he'll go top 20 no question. Other than that I mostly agree. I think we'll see more than one first round WR though.
As much as I downplay the Combine, I really wanted to see Kelly's numbers. I can wait. I see him as the player with the most to win or lose over measureables. He did benefit from the most accurate QB I have seen in some time. Fringe top 10 sounds about right with a great showing, but I could also see him going WR2 or 3 near the end of the first with a bad showing. I confess, my WR opinions are extremely fluid right now, but I do see Kelly as WR1, just not quite so clearly, yet, maybe.
 
Official heights and weights should trickle in throughout the next day or two. So far:

Jonathan Stewart - 5'10" 235

Limas Sweed - 6'4" 216

Malcolm Kelly - 6'3.5" 224

DeSean Jackson - 5'9" 167
I can't see him having much at all of an NFL career unless he puts on about 20 pounds.
 
The lists are based upon the fantasy upside of these players in their best potential situation.

Updated Positional Rankings listed HERE

Inspired by Bloom's 'Rookie 100' and Fear & Loathing's Dynasty Rankings, I decided to lump all the Rookie QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs onto one list...

Top 100

(with arbitrary ranking scale!)

1. RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois* [95]

2. RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas* [94]

3. RB Jonathan Stewart, Oregon* [92]

4. RB Ray Rice, Rutgers* [79]

5. RB Felix Jones, Arkansas* [78]

6. RB Kevin Smith, Central Florida* [76]

t7. RB Chris Johnson, East Carolina [75]

t7. WR Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma [75]

t9. RB Matt Forte, Tulane [74]

t9. WR Limas Sweed, Texas [74]

11. WR James Hardy, Indiana* [73]

12. RB Jamaal Charles, Texas* [72]

t13. QB Matt Ryan, Boston College [69]

t13. WR Devin Thomas, Michigan State* [69]

15. RB Tashard Choice, Georgia Tech [67]

16. WR Mario Manningham, Michigan* [65]

17. RB Steve Slaton, West Virginia* [64]

t18. WR Early Doucet, LSU [63]

t18. WR Andre Caldwell, Florida [63]

t18. WR Earl Bennett, Vanderbilt* [63]

t21. QB Brian Brohm, Louisville [62]

t21. WR DeSean Jackson, California* [62]

23. RB Thomas Brown, Georgia [60]

24. WR Lavelle Hawkins, California [58]

t25. WR Jordy Nelson, Kansas State [56]

t25. TE Fred Davis, USC [56]

t27. QB Joe Flacco, Delaware [55]

t27. WR Jerome Simpson, Coastal Carolina[55]

t27. WR Keenan Burton, Kentucky [55]

t27. WR Eddie Royal, Virginia Tech [55]

t31. RB Mike Hart, Michigan [54]

t31. TE Martellus Bennett, Texas A&M* [53]

t33. QB Chad Henne, Michigan [53]

t33. WR Paul Hubbard, Wisconsin [53]

35. QB Andre Woodson, Kentucky [52]

t36. QB Josh Johnson, San Diego [51]

t36. WR Pierre Garcon, Mount Union [51]

t38. QB John David Booty, USC [49]

t38. RB Justin Forsett, California [49]

t38. TE Dustin Keller, Purdue [49]

t41. WR Donnie Avery, Houston [48]

t41. WR Harry Douglas, Louisville [48]

t41. WR Dorien Bryant, Purdue [48]

t44. WR D.J. Hall, Alabama [47]

t44. WR William Franklin, Missouri [47]

46. QB Kevin O'Connell, San Diego State [46]

t47. RB Jalen Parlmele, Toledo [45]

t47. WR Dexter Jackson, Appalachian State [45]

t47. WR Marcus Smith, New Mexico [45]

t47. WR Adrian Arrington, Michigan* [45]

t47. WR Arman Shields, Richmond [45]

t52. RB Corey Boyd, South Carolina [43]

t52. RB Allen Patrick, Oklahoma [43]

t52. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Ole Miss [43]

t52. RB Chauncey Washington, USC [43]

t52. WR Darius Reynaud, West Virginia* [43]

57. WR Adarius Bowman, Oklahoma State [42]

58. QB Dennis Dixon, Oregon [41]

59. QB Colt Brennan, Hawaii [40]

t60. WR Davone Bess, Hawaii* [39]

t60. TE John Carlson, Notre Dame [39]

62. RB Dantrell Savage, Oklahoma State [38]

t63. RB Rafael Little, Kentucky [37]

t63. WR Ryan Grice-Mullen, Hawaii* [37]

t63. WR Steve Johnson, Kentucky [37]

t63. WR Marcus Monk, Arkansas [37]

t63. WR Jaymar Johnson, Jackson State [37]

t63. WR Justin Harper, Virginia Tech [37]

t63. WR Josh Morgan, Virginia Tech [37]

t70. QB Eric Ainge, Tennessee [36]

t70. WR Mario Urrutia, Louisville* [36]

t72. WR Kevin Robinson, Utah State [35]

t72. RB/WR Anthony Alridge, Houston [35]

t72. TE Brad Cottam, Tennessee [35]

t75. WR Jason Rivers, Hawaii [34]

t75. WR Mark Bradford, Stanford [34]

t75. WR Marcus Henry, Kansas [34]

t75. WR Travis Brown, New Mexico [34]

t75. TE Jermichael Finley, Texas* [34]

t80. QB Sam Keller, Nebraska [33]

t80. RB Xavier Omon, NW Missouri State [33]

t80. RB Chad Simpson, Morgan State [33]

t83. WR Todd Blythe, Iowa State [32]

t83. WR Taj Smith, Syracuse* [32]

t83. WR Kenneth Moore, Wake Forest [32]

t83. WR Maurice Purify, Nebraska [32]

t83. TE Kellen Davis, Michigan State [32]

t88. QB Matt Flynn, LSU [31]

t88. WR Darnell Jenkins, Miami (FL) [31]

t90. QB Paul Smith, Tulsa [30]

t90. QB Bernard Morris, Marshall [30]

t90. RB Ryan Torain, Arizona [30]

t90. RB Kalvin McRae, Ohio [30]

t90. WR Brandon Breazell, UCLA [30]

t90. WR Jabari Arthur, Akron [30]

t90. WR Danny Amendola, Texas Tech [30]

t90. WR Michael Henderson, Georgia [30]

t90. WR Robert Jordan, California [30]

t90. WR Darrell Blackmon, North Carolina State [30]

100. RB Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State [29]

 
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aposulli said:
The lists are based upon the fantasy upside of these players in their best potential situation.

Updated Positional Rankings listed HERE

Inspired by Bloom's 'Rookie 100' and Fear & Loathing's Dynasty Rankings, I decided to lump all the Rookie QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs onto one list...

Top 100

(with arbitrary ranking scale!)

t1. RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas* [95]

t1. RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois* [95]

3. RB Jonathan Stewart, Oregon* [93]

4. RB Felix Jones, Arkansas* [81]

5. RB Ray Rice, Rutgers* [79]

6. RB Chris Johnson, East Carolina [77]

t7. RB Kevin Smith, Central Florida* [76]

t7. WR Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma [76]

t9. RB Matt Forte, Tulane [74]

t9. WR Limas Sweed, Texas [74]
Great stuff aposulli, thanks!!
:goodposting: He's making this bloomin' easier to organize.Our friend Waldman has that detailed post directed personally to me up right now, and I haven't been able to muster the attention span (my adhd is impressive these days) to digest it respectfully, but I lost sleep over this rookie topic this morning. I woke up at 4:30 and started digging through college games with my in-season notes and watching RBs side by side (one on the tube one on the pooter). I am sick in the head.

One thing that dawned on me and my 10th pick is that I WILL draft an RB there. Period. If 9 RBs fall in an opening run, I want the remaining RB on my top 10 list over any WR, QB, or IDP in this draft. I think it's exactly a 10RB run, and while an earlier pick would be great, I am fine #10. The real draft could change that, so I should just get more sleep.

McFadden

Stewart/Mendenhall

Johnson/Jones/Smith/Charles/Rice/Forte

Choice before any WR? Sure. Chances are a wide or QB will get picked and I'll have 2 or 3 backs to choose from. I may move down a spot or two after all. :shrug:

 
aposulli said:
The lists are based upon the fantasy upside of these players in their best potential situation.

Updated Positional Rankings listed HERE

Inspired by Bloom's 'Rookie 100' and Fear & Loathing's Dynasty Rankings, I decided to lump all the Rookie QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs onto one list...

Top 100

(with arbitrary ranking scale!)

t1. RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas* [95]

t1. RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois* [95]

3. RB Jonathan Stewart, Oregon* [93]

4. RB Felix Jones, Arkansas* [81]

5. RB Ray Rice, Rutgers* [79]

6. RB Chris Johnson, East Carolina [77]

t7. RB Kevin Smith, Central Florida* [76]

t7. WR Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma [76]

t9. RB Matt Forte, Tulane [74]

t9. WR Limas Sweed, Texas [74]
Great stuff aposulli, thanks!!
:goodposting: He's making this bloomin' easier to organize.Our friend Waldman has that detailed post directed personally to me up right now, and I haven't been able to muster the attention span (my adhd is impressive these days) to digest it respectfully, but I lost sleep over this rookie topic this morning. I woke up at 4:30 and started digging through college games with my in-season notes and watching RBs side by side (one on the tube one on the pooter). I am sick in the head.

One thing that dawned on me and my 10th pick is that I WILL draft an RB there. Period. If 9 RBs fall in an opening run, I want the remaining RB on my top 10 list over any WR, QB, or IDP in this draft. I think it's exactly a 10RB run, and while an earlier pick would be great, I am fine #10. The real draft could change that, so I should just get more sleep.

McFadden

Stewart/Mendenhall

Johnson/Jones/Smith/Charles/Rice/Forte

Choice before any WR? Sure. Chances are a wide or QB will get picked and I'll have 2 or 3 backs to choose from. I may move down a spot or two after all. :lmao:
I'm fine with that scenario because although I could take a RB at 1.11, I really need a QB and WR more and having my choice of the best of both positions would be great. Go RB run!
 
aposulli said:
The lists are based upon the fantasy upside of these players in their best potential situation.

Updated Positional Rankings listed HERE

Inspired by Bloom's 'Rookie 100' and Fear & Loathing's Dynasty Rankings, I decided to lump all the Rookie QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs onto one list...

Top 100

(with arbitrary ranking scale!)

t1. RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas* [95]

t1. RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois* [95]

3. RB Jonathan Stewart, Oregon* [93]

4. RB Felix Jones, Arkansas* [81]

5. RB Ray Rice, Rutgers* [79]

6. RB Chris Johnson, East Carolina [77]

t7. RB Kevin Smith, Central Florida* [76]

t7. WR Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma [76]

t9. RB Matt Forte, Tulane [74]

t9. WR Limas Sweed, Texas [74]
Great stuff aposulli, thanks!!
:goodposting: He's making this bloomin' easier to organize.Our friend Waldman has that detailed post directed personally to me up right now, and I haven't been able to muster the attention span (my adhd is impressive these days) to digest it respectfully, but I lost sleep over this rookie topic this morning. I woke up at 4:30 and started digging through college games with my in-season notes and watching RBs side by side (one on the tube one on the pooter). I am sick in the head.

One thing that dawned on me and my 10th pick is that I WILL draft an RB there. Period. If 9 RBs fall in an opening run, I want the remaining RB on my top 10 list over any WR, QB, or IDP in this draft. I think it's exactly a 10RB run, and while an earlier pick would be great, I am fine #10. The real draft could change that, so I should just get more sleep.

McFadden

Stewart/Mendenhall

Johnson/Jones/Smith/Charles/Rice/Forte

Choice before any WR? Sure. Chances are a wide or QB will get picked and I'll have 2 or 3 backs to choose from. I may move down a spot or two after all. :thumbup:
I'm fine with that scenario because although I could take a RB at 1.11, I really need a QB and WR more and having my choice of the best of both positions would be great. Go RB run!
The thing is, I'll inevidibly be moving around these RBs in the 2nd tier. One or two will probably be drafted into a very good situation. But the rest will probably be moved down based on the fact that they will not likely be in a position to compete for a starting job in '08, and some could be lucky to win a backup job. I would think 3-6 WRs will be in position to win a starting job somewhere in the NFL, based on who drafts them, and they will likely see a bump in value. I see a couple of them getting into the 6-10 range, post-draft. As for the QBs, I think it's safe to say that Baltimore, Atlanta, Carolina and Chicago will be drafting their future signal-caller, giving at least 4 QBs a good chance to start in '08. This should at least make it clear who in the 2nd tier will be elevated.So things will change, but I don't forsee much movement at all until after draft-day.

 
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I have picks 1.2, 1.5, 1.8, 1.12, 2.2 in a 12 team dynasty.

I was thinking rb for sure at 1.2 and 1.5 and best qb/wr at 1.8 but I have rethought that now after the combine. Looking to me like 1.8 will still have a good upside rb on the board.

I haven't seen much out of the qb/wr positions to thrill me. I need wr's too but don't really see alot of separation in the top 3-5 so I think I'll see who is there at 1.12 and 2.2.

 
1. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas2. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon3. Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas4. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois5. Kevin Smith, RB, UCF6. DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal7. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma8. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers9. Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas10. James Hardy, WR, Indiana11. Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville12. Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma State
So, I haven't done enough scouting yet... but, IMO Jones and Mendenhall will be the best two backs in this class, I like Ray Rice as well. Stewart I think is going to do ok, but not as good as the FBG hype right now, and I can't help but see visions of Reggie's first two seasons in DMac... I think both Reggie and McFadden will eventually be elite, but just not yet.
 
The thing is, I'll inevidibly be moving around these RBs in the 2nd tier. One or two will probably be drafted into a very good situation. But the rest will probably be moved down based on the fact that they will not likely be in a position to compete for a starting job in '08, and some could be lucky to win a backup job.
I hear ya, and while I agree situation is crucial, I believe this crop of RBs may change the face of the position across the league in very short order. That's something I've said since before the 06 draft, and it may be playing out now. Likewise, there is no elite WR talent in this draft, but I have a long solid list of pick of the litter wr names that will linger into the 4th maybe 5th round of a rookie draft. I think the chance of a top 10 RB making an impact is better than the chance of WRs 1-3 this year, while post top 10 RBs are going to be completely worthless, yet decent potential at WR can be had through the draft.
 
The thing is, I'll inevidibly be moving around these RBs in the 2nd tier. One or two will probably be drafted into a very good situation. But the rest will probably be moved down based on the fact that they will not likely be in a position to compete for a starting job in '08, and some could be lucky to win a backup job.
I hear ya, and while I agree situation is crucial, I believe this crop of RBs may change the face of the position across the league in very short order. That's something I've said since before the 06 draft, and it may be playing out now. Likewise, there is no elite WR talent in this draft, but I have a long solid list of pick of the litter wr names that will linger into the 4th maybe 5th round of a rookie draft. I think the chance of a top 10 RB making an impact is better than the chance of WRs 1-3 this year, while post top 10 RBs are going to be completely worthless, yet decent potential at WR can be had through the draft.
Is that because you think there are so many GREAT RBs in this class? Or because the league is due for a changeover with so many older/not so good RBs currently starting?IMO, this class has 4-5 above average RBs, but no STUD RB.

 
The thing is, I'll inevidibly be moving around these RBs in the 2nd tier. One or two will probably be drafted into a very good situation. But the rest will probably be moved down based on the fact that they will not likely be in a position to compete for a starting job in '08, and some could be lucky to win a backup job.
I hear ya, and while I agree situation is crucial, I believe this crop of RBs may change the face of the position across the league in very short order. That's something I've said since before the 06 draft, and it may be playing out now. Likewise, there is no elite WR talent in this draft, but I have a long solid list of pick of the litter wr names that will linger into the 4th maybe 5th round of a rookie draft. I think the chance of a top 10 RB making an impact is better than the chance of WRs 1-3 this year, while post top 10 RBs are going to be completely worthless, yet decent potential at WR can be had through the draft.
Is that because you think there are so many GREAT RBs in this class? Or because the league is due for a changeover with so many older/not so good RBs currently starting?IMO, this class has 4-5 above average RBs, but no STUD RB.
HoustonSeattle

Cleveland

Chicago

Detroit

Atlanta

Arizona

Tampa Bay

Denver

Carolina

Oakland

Cincinnati

NY Jets

I'd say those are the most desirable places for a Rookie RB to land. That said, Michael Turner will likely be signed by one of these teams. There is a good chance McFadden goes to Oakland or the Jets, IMO. Mendenhall and Stewart we know will be 1st Rounders, likely going to two of the other teams on this list. So 9 more teams should provide the opportunity for a Rookie RB to come in and compete for a starting job by 2009.

That does bode well for the 2nd tier 'backs, so I suppose Jones, Johnson, Charles, Rice, Smith, Forte really could hold solid value if the right teams picks them. And by that I mean, at best, the RBs could hold the top 9 spots on my list. I still think Hardy, Sweed, or Kelly could sneak in, depending on where they land. There would be almost no reason I would take Slaton, Choice, Thoams Brown, Mike Hart, or any other RB beyond them ahead of those WRs, regardless of where they all land.

This class has 3 potential stud RBs. I love Rice, but you can't put him or Felix Jones in McFadden, Mendenhall and Stweart's class.

 
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IMO, this class has 4-5 above average RBs, but no STUD RB.
I agree with this. I don't see a bulletproof runner in the draft this year. All of the top guys are flawed in some way. The interesting thing about this group is the depth. There are some 2nd-3rd round guys who look like they have a chance to be starters in this league. I have to think that the Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Tashard Choice, and Steve Slaton cluster of value is going to yield a Frank Gore or Brian Westbrook. The hard part is figuring out which unheralded guy is going to be the one to step up.
 
IMO, this class has 4-5 above average RBs, but no STUD RB.
I agree with this. I don't see a bulletproof runner in the draft this year. All of the top guys are flawed in some way. The interesting thing about this group is the depth. There are some 2nd-3rd round guys who look like they have a chance to be starters in this league. I have to think that the Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Tashard Choice, and Steve Slaton cluster of value is going to yield a Frank Gore or Brian Westbrook. The hard part is figuring out which unheralded guy is going to be the one to step up.
so are you saying Gore or Westbrook arent' studs????
 
IMO, this class has 4-5 above average RBs, but no STUD RB.
I agree with this. I don't see a bulletproof runner in the draft this year. All of the top guys are flawed in some way. The interesting thing about this group is the depth. There are some 2nd-3rd round guys who look like they have a chance to be starters in this league. I have to think that the Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Tashard Choice, and Steve Slaton cluster of value is going to yield a Frank Gore or Brian Westbrook. The hard part is figuring out which unheralded guy is going to be the one to step up.
so are you saying Gore or Westbrook arent' studs????
No, not at all. My point is that this year's second and third tier probably contains 1-2 guys who will step up and emerge from the middle rounds like Westbrook and Gore. The hard part is figuring out which of these guys is Vernand Morency and which of them is Frank Gore.
 
IMO, this class has 4-5 above average RBs, but no STUD RB.
I agree with this. I don't see a bulletproof runner in the draft this year. All of the top guys are flawed in some way. The interesting thing about this group is the depth. There are some 2nd-3rd round guys who look like they have a chance to be starters in this league. I have to think that the Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Tashard Choice, and Steve Slaton cluster of value is going to yield a Frank Gore or Brian Westbrook. The hard part is figuring out which unheralded guy is going to be the one to step up.
Ray Rice. I guess it's the quasi-Rutgers fan in me, but I just see something in him that leads me to believe he is going to end up a full time runner in this league for a few years. I'd love to see him land in Cleveland and take over for Lewis in a year or two, behind an up and coming offense with a very productive and still improving offensive line.
 
Can't help but update My List every time this gets bumped

:mellow:
im diggin your list! :unsure:
Really? 9 of his Top 12 and 12 of his Top 17 are RBs. That's just not going to happen.
Why not?We've discussed the possibility of the top 10 picks overall being all RBs in a given Rookie Draft. But I have concluded that the RB's "value" will probably drop depending on the situation they are drafted into. There just isn't any elite fantasy WR1 talent to suggest that there would be a top 5-10 LOCK at that position. Even if Matt Ryan is drafted into an ideal situation, it would be too hard for me to put him ahead of my top 7 RBs.

ETA: You also are looking at my outdated list. You'd enjoy my most recent rankings even more :lmao: (scroll up on this page)

 
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EBF said:
switz said:
IMO, this class has 4-5 above average RBs, but no STUD RB.
I agree with this. I don't see a bulletproof runner in the draft this year. All of the top guys are flawed in some way.
Just out of curiousty, have you ever seen one?
Bush and Peterson come to mind.
Hmm, if i recall correctly, at this same time last year you were saying it would be a tough choice between Peterson and Lynch. I believe you were saying this because Lynch had the more "prototypical" size. Kind of like what you are saying about Stewart/Mendenhall and Mcfadden ths year. Im not saying Mcfadden=AD, just that you were singing a similar tune to AD last year as you are Mcfadden this year. The last guy i remember you calling a cant miss stud RB was Kevin Barlow. :thumbup:
 
EBF said:
switz said:
IMO, this class has 4-5 above average RBs, but no STUD RB.
I agree with this. I don't see a bulletproof runner in the draft this year. All of the top guys are flawed in some way.
Just out of curiousty, have you ever seen one?
Bush and Peterson come to mind.
You didn't perceive a real gap between Lynch and Peterson, iirc?I don't like the term bulletproof. No one is ever bulletproof and concerns over ADs injury history and Bush's style were reasonable takes. Like you I disagreed with both.

This year I think the top 3 are all Pro Bowl talents. That's 3 stud RBs where you and Switz see none. :thumbup:

 

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