Dope
Footballguy
TE's being treated just like WR's.
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Dynasty Rankings (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
dsrm,I didn't forget about you. It's just been an extremely hectic couple of weeks on my end. I'm going to pass on the TE + WR rankings. I just don't think I'd be much help here, and I've always preferred to separate WRs & TEs even when they're both eligible at the same position. Basically, all I would do is throw Gates in around 15-20, then move the next group in somewhere down the line around 30-45. I think you guys are better off working with your own specific rules to gauge where those TEs fit in with the WRs. I think the most important thing to keep in mind for dynasty leagues is that TEs have a significantly shorter shelf-life. They're much closer to RBs than WRs in expected future production, e.g. more unpredictable from year-to-year, not much left in the tank past age 30, more injury prone, etc. On the other hand, they're closer to QBs in learning curve. TEs don't generally make an impact until after a year or two or even three in the league. Armed with that info, you shouldn't have much of a problem using your specific league rules as a framework to mix the TEs into the WR rankings. Sorry if that's a let-down.F&L
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Thanks Beaumont.I agree that Dorsey is probably the insurance policy to take out in the Colts backfield, but I'm still not expecting big things out of either of them. Dorsey strikes me as having much more of a 3rd down type of ceiling than being a true back-up or filling the Rhodes role in the offense. IIRC from watching Bengals pre-season games, Dorsey is very fast & quick, but he's more of a scat-back who would take the lesser share of carries in any backfield split. He doesn't have the size to shoulder the load full time if Addai were to go down with injury.
I guess it gets more believable that the Colts aren't going to import a true back-up as the weeks continue to fly by, but I'm still not sure that gives Dorsey any more than speculative value as a dynasty entity.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
Interesting seeing Teddy Ginn at #4 overall for rookie WRs.
A bit high for my liking, but he does have tremendous upside if
the chips fall right.
A bit high for my liking, but he does have tremendous upside if
the chips fall right.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Fair enough. I'm not all that comfortable with the rookie WRs until I see them play. But keep in mind the following:1. Rookie WRs are kind of a crapshoot until we see how they fit in with their new NFL teams and gather some data. *Corollary: I'm admittedly no expert on rookie WRs.2. At least one NFL team thought he was the 2nd best WR in this class. What's the significance of #4 ranking in the class when others had him much higher?3. You mentioned the tremendous upside, and there's no doubt in my mind he's at least as talented (if not moreso) as any non-Calvin Johnson WR in this rookie class. The skill is the question, and that's going to be tough to get a handle on before seeing these guys play at the NFL level.4. I'm a gambler. I'd rather go for the guy who does have a chance to be special as opposed to a guy who can step right in and throw up a Keary Colbert type of rookie season with little room to grow.
Fighting Noles
Footballguy
F & L - Thanks again for all your work on this thread. It will help me greatly when it comes to my startup Dynasty draft this season. I do have one quick REDRAFT question though & it involves Calvin Johnson. I know how high you are on him in a Dynasty but where would you rank him for 2007 as far as the WR's go. His ADP is about WR25 & the opinions on him in his first year seem to be all over the place. Many either like him as a WR2 or 3 or hate him (typical rookie W/R's don't produce type remarks)....
Where do you stand on this if you don't mind me asking? I just would like to see how someone such as yourself who loves him for the future (like I do) feels about his chances for '07. If you've stated this elsewhere already I apologize in advance for missing it....
Where do you stand on this if you don't mind me asking? I just would like to see how someone such as yourself who loves him for the future (like I do) feels about his chances for '07. If you've stated this elsewhere already I apologize in advance for missing it....
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Thanks Fighting Noles. I wouldn't take him as my WR1 in redraft because I need more of a sure thing in that role. I would definitely consider him as a WR2 if I was feeling a little squirrelly and I wasn't smitten with the other choices left on the table. I would not hesitate for a moment to grab him as a WR3. He's perfect for that role if you think you can get him there.I guess I should add that I don't quite take redraft leagues as seriously as dynasty, so I'm even more likely to neglect the risk and gamble on a big splash type of move. I like splashy moves...they liven up the draft as well as the season.
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Fighting Noles
Footballguy
My thoughts EXACTLY F & L - He's been going in the 6th which is WR3 area for me possibly (PPR's) after taking 2 or 3 RBs (or a top QB) and 2 other Wr's....Appreciate it!
lions327
Footballguy
I completely agree. If you are in a dynasty draft and know that the majority of the WR's aren't going to help all that much until their 3rd year, I would also take the WR's with the higher ceilings.
Dope
Footballguy
No problem at all.Keep up the good work.
Got a question regarding an upcoming rookie/FA draft. You get as many draft picks as the number of players you drop. For the TE position, I've currently got Shockey and Pope. The following TEs are available:
Greg Olsen
Zach Miller
Eric Johnson
Marcus Pollard
Ben Troupe
Alex Smith
Jerramy Stevens
Bubba Franks
David Martin
Owen Daniels
I'm dropping at least 3 players and will probably drop Pope and pick up another TE in the 4th round. What do you think and what's your evaluation of the above players (in general and compared to Pope)?
Thanks for all your work on this thread.
Greg Olsen
Zach Miller
Eric Johnson
Marcus Pollard
Ben Troupe
Alex Smith
Jerramy Stevens
Bubba Franks
David Martin
Owen Daniels
I'm dropping at least 3 players and will probably drop Pope and pick up another TE in the 4th round. What do you think and what's your evaluation of the above players (in general and compared to Pope)?
Thanks for all your work on this thread.
Owen Daniels, Eric Johnson, Greg Olson, Alex Smith.I really like Owen Daniels. Eric Johnson is in a good spot. He is a good pass catches on a passing team. Think LJ Smith. Olson and Smith are the most talented of the rest of those guys.
Warpig
Footballguy
I'd definitely go for Troupe or one of the rookies. Troupe has immense talent but needs to stay healthy and get his head on straight. I think Young is gonna depend on his TE's alot this year. David Martin could be a good pick up later as well.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Good to hear from you, Driver.I like spec1alk's take on this one, but I would also second Warpig's Troupe recommendation (while distancing myself from David Martin).I would take most of those guys over Pope with basically Franks as the only one I would definitely not take over Pope. I'm not crazy about David Martin, Pollard or Jerramy Stevens either.I'm with spec1alk on Owen Daniels. He could really sneak into the upper tier this year as Schaub's 2nd most reliable target. Carr didn't help his production so much, but Rosenfels was all over Daniels in the little playing time Sage received. We'll have to see if Schaub uses him more like Carr or Rosenfels, but I think he's a good choice either way.I think Troupe is the best gamble in the group when you consider talent, opportunity and experience. Many had him as a candidate to jump into the first tier last season, and it's not like his talent got worse. He's just coming off a disappointing season. These things happen. Young will need somebody to throw to, and his WR crew is embarrassing. You could argue that Troupe is the best weapon Young has on offense.Olsen & Miller are talented rookies. Unless it's a truly unique/can't-miss talent like a Vernon Davis, Shockey or Heap, I tend to stay away from rookie tight ends. Sure, I'd rather have either of them than Pope, but I'd go with Daniels or Troupe over the rookies.Eric Johnson arrived in the right situation, but let's not forget he's extremely injury prone, doesn't get in the end zone and doesn't block. He's been running with the 3rd string last I read, so he's going to have to earn that #1 spot. Alex Smith is interesting. I have a friend who swears by him, but I just haven't seen it. He's been underwhelming so far, and now he has Jerramy Stevens breathing down his neck. That offense has been a joke, and they didn't really add much to help. If I liked Alex Smith, I'd wait another year to grab him.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Daniels could be a great pick, AJ will be the focus of the opposing defense, allowing Daniels space. Could be a big year for him.Troupe is and has been, my pick for sleeper TE of the year for all the reasons you list. IMO, The only knock on Troupe this year is Scaife.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Great post. Anyone counting on Troupe finally living up to his promise is in for a disappointment, IMHO.spec1alk said:
Only 3 years?Gates 180 catchesHeap 130 catchesShockey 170 catchesGonzo 170 catches(rough totals from a quick scan of nfl player pages)And all had more, and sometimes double the TDs of Troupe. 13 catches, start 9 games, and it's VYs fault? Only 3 years.VY hurt him.What other excuses can we come up with? He was hurt a lot? I love when injury prone becomes a defense for a player. That's a negative in my books.At some point (like when Bo Scaife dominates you), it's time to say you're just not that great. Let college go. This is the NFL, and after 48 games, Troupe just isn't that good. Troupe isn't even the best TE on the Titans.Or is that VYs fault also? Lets get realistic, you're a good TE or you're not. And he's clearly not.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
His ADP is 164 as the #17 TE taken. I usually don't "count on" anyone taken that late. When I said my only knock on him, I meant besides his injuries, which I try not to project.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Fair enough. I realize we can't just overlook last year, but his first two years in the NFL, Troupe had 88 receptions, 859 yards, and 5 TDs. Gonzo had 92/989/4; Heap had 84/1042/7. Pretty comparable, especially when you consider their ADP and you can get Troupe in the 14th round. He had issues his 3rd year (allegedly the breakout season). I'm willing to take the risk that he'll improve.
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good discussion going on here I think.I guess it is possible that troupe could have a breakout year and be a startable TE fantasy wise, but I would much rather gamble on a guy like owen daniels.I guess the question is, where would you rank troupe? What do you think his ceiling is? What do you think is realistic to expect from him this year?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I think -Oz- gets to the heart of the matter here. The original question was about a roster that already had Shockey as the starting tight end. No one is suggesting you "count on" Troupe or put yourself in a position where Troupe could let your team down if he doesn't produce. I like him as a high upside back-up, but nobody is saying you should bank on him as your lead dog.His ADP is 164 as the #17 TE taken. I usually don't "count on" anyone taken that late. When I said my only knock on him, I meant besides his injuries, which I try not to project.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I don't need to make excuses for a player coming off of one disappointing, injury-plagued season. That's usually when I swoop in for a steal. I certainly didn't consider Troupe a disappointment at this time last year coming off a promising sophomore season where he racked up 530 yards on 55 receptions while splitting time with Erron Kinney. I may have missed something, but I never saw Bo Scaife dominate anyone. I don't know if VY hurt Troupe because I don't think Troupe got much of a chance to play with VY. He was pretty much done for the year when VY took over.I'll stick with my philosophy and let you judge the player on last year's stats. I'll judge him on talent level and situation. Like I said, I was happy with his progress after his promising sophomore season. I don't think he's any less talented this year just because conventional wisdom is down on his injury riddled most recent season.Again, I'm not banking on Troupe as my lead dog at tight end. But he fits to a "T" what I look for in a high upside back-up.
CBower4545
Footballguy
First I just want to thank you for the work you put into this it has been a big help for me doing my first dynasty draft. I know your red values are a way of showing relative value between players of the same position and tiers. I used your rankings in guiding my decisions thus far but the values across position thing Really tripped me up in rd4. Our league is called 4th&Goal hosted on mfl. PPR Dynasty, starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, and a flex. So far:
Rd1:Westbrook
Rd2:MJD
Rd3:Holt
Rd4:D. Williams
Rd5:Coles
Rd6:McNabb
In the 4th There is only best RBs available ar all tier 3: D. williams, white and turner. But #3 QB Brady and Evans are available. 6pts per passing td here so I like Brady but I decide to pass thinking I can find value later on. My real problem is between D. Williams and Evans. Now a top tier 3 Rb vs a low tier 1 WR. I was really undecisive on this. I agree with you that formats make ranking cross position difficult to do for publishing for a wide variety of formats.
It just seems to me that these cross position evaulations seem to be the most difficult to make. While a comprehensive formula does seem to be crazy, I would think a general dicussion of how to apply different scoring factors, league setups in positional evalutions cross positions would be helpful.
In this case the PPR scoring makes me like taking the WR. The VBD is screaming at me to take Evans. Generally dynasty format makes me think good running backs are going to be hard to come by. But then the flex spot makes me think that having the possibility to starting three top 20 Rbs is more valuable then having two Tier 1 WR instead of one tier WR and one tier 2 to 3 WR as my top 2. So I went with D. Williams. If there had been no flex I think I would have went with Evans trying to gain an advantage with my starters.
Still I am not sure I made the right decision. I have never before played with this flex position and I am only guessing on it's effect to value in this spot.
Rd1:Westbrook
Rd2:MJD
Rd3:Holt
Rd4:D. Williams
Rd5:Coles
Rd6:McNabb
In the 4th There is only best RBs available ar all tier 3: D. williams, white and turner. But #3 QB Brady and Evans are available. 6pts per passing td here so I like Brady but I decide to pass thinking I can find value later on. My real problem is between D. Williams and Evans. Now a top tier 3 Rb vs a low tier 1 WR. I was really undecisive on this. I agree with you that formats make ranking cross position difficult to do for publishing for a wide variety of formats.
It just seems to me that these cross position evaulations seem to be the most difficult to make. While a comprehensive formula does seem to be crazy, I would think a general dicussion of how to apply different scoring factors, league setups in positional evalutions cross positions would be helpful.
In this case the PPR scoring makes me like taking the WR. The VBD is screaming at me to take Evans. Generally dynasty format makes me think good running backs are going to be hard to come by. But then the flex spot makes me think that having the possibility to starting three top 20 Rbs is more valuable then having two Tier 1 WR instead of one tier WR and one tier 2 to 3 WR as my top 2. So I went with D. Williams. If there had been no flex I think I would have went with Evans trying to gain an advantage with my starters.
Still I am not sure I made the right decision. I have never before played with this flex position and I am only guessing on it's effect to value in this spot.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Somewhere around #10-12 TE, somewhere above Heath Miller, near Owen Daniels, and below LJ Smith.
True ceiling? It's always difficult to project that, but I'd guess 75/800/10. Top 5 level. Lots of things have to line up for that to happen. He has to stay healthy, Scaife either gets injured, or VY shies away from him, and no WR truly steps up to be the go-to guy.
55/550/5 (10-12 range last year.)
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I thought he was going closer to TE12. As TE17, I think that's fair. I just don't think he will become the great TE that I thought he was going to become.
I got Troupe as my backup at TE19 and 182 overall a couple weeks ago in an initial dynasty draft (12 teams, non-IDP, rookies included) -- thanks to F&L.I thought he was going closer to TE12. As TE17, I think that's fair. I just don't think he will become the great TE that I thought he was going to become.His ADP is 164 as the #17 TE taken. I usually don't "count on" anyone taken that late. When I said my only knock on him, I meant besides his injuries, which I try not to project.
Dynasty question related to trading RBs -- I've basically been thinking about the trade-off between the value of a demonstrated track record vs. youth/upside. For example, consider 2 established RBs and 2 rookies. According to the rankings:
1. Travis Henry (45) - age 28.8
2. Marshawn Lynch (38) - age 21.4
3. Thomas Jones (36) - age 29.0
4. Brandon Jackson (17) - age 21.9
Lynch is ranked between Travis Henry and Thomas Jones, with Jackson currently ranked significantly below Jones. Would you trade an established RB with good prospects for the next 2-3 years like Henry (or Jones) to get a young RB with a lot of potential like Lynch? What about trading Jones to get Jackson?
My $.02 -- I probably overvalue youth and potential and undervalue productivity over the next 2 years, but if I had Henry, I think I'd trade him straight up for Lynch mainly because of the age difference, Lynch's upside, and the limited number of quality years remaining for Henry. I'd definitely trade Jones for Lynch, and IMO Jackson isn't that far behind Jones for dynasty trading purposes.
If Jackson has a good camp and looks like he'll be the featured back, I'd trade Jones to get him, too (of course he'll be jumping up the rankings at that point). But I don't think I'd trade Henry to get Jackson (even if he's the featured back in GB) because I expect Henry to have 2-3 very good years in DEN and that's worth more than the age differential and Jackson's potential upside.
Any thoughts?
1. Travis Henry (45) - age 28.8
2. Marshawn Lynch (38) - age 21.4
3. Thomas Jones (36) - age 29.0
4. Brandon Jackson (17) - age 21.9
Lynch is ranked between Travis Henry and Thomas Jones, with Jackson currently ranked significantly below Jones. Would you trade an established RB with good prospects for the next 2-3 years like Henry (or Jones) to get a young RB with a lot of potential like Lynch? What about trading Jones to get Jackson?
My $.02 -- I probably overvalue youth and potential and undervalue productivity over the next 2 years, but if I had Henry, I think I'd trade him straight up for Lynch mainly because of the age difference, Lynch's upside, and the limited number of quality years remaining for Henry. I'd definitely trade Jones for Lynch, and IMO Jackson isn't that far behind Jones for dynasty trading purposes.
If Jackson has a good camp and looks like he'll be the featured back, I'd trade Jones to get him, too (of course he'll be jumping up the rankings at that point). But I don't think I'd trade Henry to get Jackson (even if he's the featured back in GB) because I expect Henry to have 2-3 very good years in DEN and that's worth more than the age differential and Jackson's potential upside.
Any thoughts?
I think you way overvalue youth. IMO T Jones is worth a lot more than lynch. What are you projecting for T Jones? Lynch? I like Henry a lot also, but there is no way I would trade him straight up for Lynch. I would want Lynch plus a high rookie pick.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Your opinion is wrong.
Just because my opinion is not the popular one does not make it wrong. Are you guaranteeing Lynch to not be a bust?
lions327
Footballguy
Fixed.
EBF
Footballguy
It depends on your team. Thomas Jones and Travis Henry are undervalued right now in dynasty. Both guys should put up good numbers for 2-3 years. Lynch is a bigger bust risk, but he has a longer potential shelf life.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
Ouch...I've got to disagree 100% with this.Troupe has shown he doesn't have what it takesto be a decent NFL TE. He runs terrible routes,and has difficulty with almost every aspect of the game.I actually think Scaife will seize the starting gig over Troupe in Tennessee.Take a look at a fully healthy Ben Troupe's numbers during thefirst 10 games last season....10 games13 catches150 yds2 TDsScaife not Troupe should be the big beneficiary to continuethe connection that Young and Scaife had at UT.I would say trade Troupe now if you can get anything decent for him.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
The overarching age vs. youth dichotomy is nothing more than an evil temptress diverting your attention from the obvious. EBF is right: It all depends on your team.What is your job as a fantasy football owner? Win. Every week. Every year. How do you do that? Put the best starting lineup out there on a weekly basis and build roster depth with promising young talent. If you want to keep winning for years to fulfill the very definition of a "dynasty" league, you must balance proven veteran talent with promising young talent throughout your roster -- but especially in your nucleus.
If your roster is set up where you need to count on Travis Henry as one of your main cogs every week, then he's more valuable to you than Marshawn Lynch...unless you have a strong belief that Lynch is going to come in and outproduce Henry right from the get-go.
If you have 2 RB's better than Travis Henry, then you're not going to start him...in which case he shouldn't be on your roster. A more promising young RB like Lynch should be your 3rd RB instead. I know what Travis Henry is, and to me, it's not a nucleus player. Marshawn Lynch has the possibility to be a nucleus player.
Your first obligation is to win your league this year. Once you've built a team that gives you confidence as a contender, then you can start complementing your nucleus with players who can make you a contender next year and the year after. Which player gives you the best chance to win now? Which player gives you the best chance to win next year? How do the answers to those two questions fit with the players you already have on your roster?
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Define worth? if the popular opinion is that Lynch is the better dynasty player, is he not the "more valuable" player?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
There was no Titans offense under Kerry Collins. Ben Troupe didn't produce early in the season. You know who else didn't produce? Every other Titan on the offensive side of the ball.
People are falling all over themselves to knock Troupe's track record, but those same people would do well to keep in mind that Bo Scaife will never produce a season like the one Troupe put up in what was only his sophomore season in '05.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
Again I disagree. Troupe was fully healthy playing 10 games in 2006
and doing nothing in the process.
I think there are many more people with blind
man-love for Troupe than there are detractors.
BTW Scaife put up much better numbers than Troupe last year
seeing nearly the same amount of time on the field, in the same offensive system,
it wasn't even close.
TROUPE
13 catches
150 yds
2 TDs
SCAIFE
29 catches
370 yds
2 TDs
The numbers don't lie.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
So what are you saying? The numbers from '06 don't lie, but the numbers from '05 do? Seems like selective application of numbers to me.If you wanna go Troupe vs. Scaife, what's important to us isn't which one had better numbers last season. The key question is which one is more likely to ever become a startable entity as a fantasy tight end. Troupe already was for a good portion of his 2nd year in the league. With his talent level, it just doesn't take much of a leap of faith to figure that he has a good chance to get back to at least that level. I need a major leap of faith to figure Scaife will ever record 550 yards and 55 catches in a season.
I think we might just have to agree that we see things shaking out differently here.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
One thing I've learned in FF is dealing with recent historyis much more advantageous than going back 2 years to look
at someones stats with a different QB and a different system.
What I do know is that Scaife and VY had a connection together
at the U of Texas, and have brought that connection into the pros.
Scaife didn't light the world ablaze, but he more than doubled
the output of Troupe in the same amount of time in the same offensive scheme.
To me this means a lot.
I just noticed the tier 2 ranking for Troupe.
This has to be the biggest reach of any of your TEs.
And I respect and agree with a lot of your rankings, F&L.
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lions327
Footballguy
Scaife doesn't have much of a ceiling in my opinion. He is a decent player, but he will never put up good enough numbers to be a TE1. Troupe may or may not put up numbers to be a TE1, but he definitely has the upside to make it possible, and even though he has been hurt and generally underachieved, I would rather have him on my dynasty team because at least he has a chance to put up TE1 numbers. The Scaifes of the world, you can get on the WW every year.
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
lions327 said:
Finatic
Footballguy
Troupe is the ultimate buy low TE candidate in dynasty leagues this offseason IMO.I have traded for him in 3 leagues this offseason as my TE3 in deep dynasty leagues for pocket change.He is worth the gamble as VY will have to throw to someone other than Brandon Jones right?
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Hey F&L....Great thread here.
Leave it to me to ask a ? about defenses.
Given that Miami has both Booker and Ginn to return kicks and they have good playmakers on defense, why are they so low?
I'd also bump NO up one tier just because of Reggie Bush.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Thanks, Jeff.I think you're right about the Dolphins defense. It's been over a month, and I hadn't adjusted the defensive rankings since then. At that time, there were more questions about Ginn's health...I like him much better than Booker as a returner. Also factoring into the original ranking was the overall aging of the defense, which could be a hindrance to playmaking, as well as concerns about the ability of the offense (pre-Green acquisition...and post-Green acquisition for that matter) to pitch in and do their part to keep the defense fresh.
On the other hand, if you check out post #447 I did pick the Dolphins as the lowered tiered defense with the best chance to make the leap into the upper tiers this season. I don't think you have to look hard to see upside here. I'm pretty sure I'll move the Dolphins up a tier next time I sit down and revisit the rankings.
Re: Bush & the Saints. I think I give significant weight to an explosive return game as long as there's also something intriguing going on with other aspects of the defense. I can't really find much to get me excited about the Saints fantasy defense beyond their punt-returner, so I don't know that it really raises the level of their whole unit ahead of any of the other bottom tier wild card defenses. For example, I think you could make a better argument for the Cardinals or 49ers defenses.
IIRC, the Saints had Bush returning punts last season, and they managed a ranking somewhere around 25-30 overall among defenses. What is it that makes you believe they're going to have a significant turn around in defensive scoring?
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Fighting Noles
Footballguy
I agree F & L...I do think the 49ers should be moved up in a Dynasty format though. Maybe not quite there this year, but I think they are building for the future there very solidly IMO...
