Baron Samedi
Footballguy
I've been saying that for years lol, but seriously F&L, you would rather own SS then MSW, Harvin, Maclin or even Brandon Marshall?
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Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
No. You play to win championships. Far too often, Dynasty leaguers lose sight of the main goal. Your job is to recognize that championship banners fly forever. Your job is not to build the prettiest roster on paper.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Unquestionably. A stud is a stud. Fickle fantasy owners get down on studs far too easily when the situation around them turns sour. See: Randy Moss in Oakland, Andre Johnson under David Carr, Calvin Johnson this year, MJD with Fred Taylor hanging around, S-Jax last season, etc.
Edit to add: Dynasty leaguers are always talking about either contending or rebuilding, which leaves out a very important subset: what about the bad-luck team that can't compete this season but certainly doesn't need to tear down his roster? That species of owner should be sending offers for Steve Smith and Greg Jennings immediately if not sooner. He doesn't need draft picks; he needs nucleus studs who will turn their game around in 2010.
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Even in dynasty people get to caught up in what have you dont for me latley.I trade H Ward Mason and a late 1st for SS Car and Devery and think I got a great deal.
kremenull
Footballguy
Exactly the opposite for me. I'd rate Charles as a definite BUY right now, esp in PPR, which is pretty much all I care about. I can't understand why people even play non-PPR anymore, as the scoring is way too inflexible and doesn't suit today's NFL game (RBBC and pass-oriented, spread attacks). But that is another issue altogether.But Charles is ideally suited for Haley's offense, and the time to get him is now before he starts reeling off a few huge statlines the likes of a Ray Rice.....12 carries for 55 yds7 rec for 60 yds 1-2 TDs....Not saying that he is quite the runner that Rice is, but Rice also has some deficiencies between the tackles. His o-line is just plenty good whereas Charles' o-line currently isn't.
one time
Footballguy
I agree, Smith has way too much talent to not regress back to the mean, even with his QB situation.As a trade value representation I was overjoyed when I traded Eli Manning for Smith and a 1st rounder.
Rushmore
Footballguy
Wanna try one more time. Could I get your thoughts on Vernon Davis. I am suprised that there isn't more discussion in other threads and among the fantasy community about him. The guy was getting So much hype when he came into the league. The size/speed ratio he brought, along with the fact that many leagues have a mandatory start at TE. I think he is intriguing not only because of his physical makeup, but also the way his career has unfolded thus far. He comes into the league with crazy hype, then after a couple of disappointing seasons fantasy-wise, he is the butt of countless jokes and criticism. Enter 2009 season, and he's been an absolute STUD. Are long-term expectations tempered because of the slow start to his career? Has the proverbial "light come on?" I was burned a few years in a row with this guy and can't be happier that he's finally producing. Because of the history, I have to admit that he's one of my favorite players on my team. So again, I am curious about how Vernon is viewed now that he's been so huge this season. THanks.
kremenull
Footballguy
The light has definitely come on for this guy. Always has been a tireless worker, he now is extremely focused and eliminating most, not quite all, of the mental mistakes that have plagued him in the past. Based on pure talent, there isn't a better TE prospect anywhere. Singletary is the best thing that could have happened to this guy and now fantasy owners who remained patient or bought low will reap huge benefits. Top 3 TE moving forward without a doubt!
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Yes. Vernon Davis is legit.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
WTF? You got Smif and a 1st rounder for Eli?Who are these people making these trades?
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Tried trading Austin for Mendenhall straight up in a PPR and the guy won't do it. Added a second, he still won't do it. Added a first and he doesn't seem to be willing to let go of Mendenhall for that either. I was pretty shocked.WFR said:
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Rushmore
Footballguy
Thanks for the insight.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
No need for sarcasm. We've discussed Vernon Davis several times in the past few weeks, and we don't all have the free time to go back and rehash that discussion.Davis has an obvious chemistry with Alex Smith. He's been reliable as an outlet target, on intermediate routes, in the red zone, and even on deep balls. Everybody knows he's as physically gifted as any tight end in the league, and Singletary made him the offensive captain, a good indication that he has the mental side down as well.
The Niners' recent move to a pass-first offense with Alex Smith -- including running more than half of their plays out of the shotgun against the Titans -- bodes very well for Davis (as well as Smith, Michael Crabtree, and Frank Gore). Singletary, who never gets enough credit for being intellectually malleable, suggested that the offensive changes could be permanent: "I like the things that work," Singletary said when asked about the shotgun.
I don't expect Davis to continue to put up freakish TD numbers every year, but his receptions and yardage should increase to offset that. As far as long-term expectations, I expect him to be an annual Top-5 to Top-10.
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Can't tell is that's sarcasm? If you read this thread much you know F&L knows what he is talking about. There is tons of info on Davis in this thread....Without recapping it all which is tedious he is letting you know quickly that he is as good as he looks.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Well said. Smith's perceived value has never been lower. But I'd be looking to buy him now. He's an immensely talented player on a team that is almost sure to upgrade the QB situation in the offseason.
BigJim®
Footballguy
What's the opinion on Antonio Gates from a dynasty perspective? On the one hand he's had foot issues the past two seasons, but OTOH is only 29 and has a gunslinger for a QB. In my scoring format, I was surprised to see he's had just 1 game where he put up great TE1 numbers, week 4 (24 points). He's had 4-8 points in all other weeks, which seems pretty low consistency by Gates standards. Is this a good buy low opportunity or a sign of things to come?
I might be wrong, but I don't think Rushmore is being sarcastic. Since you're the guru of the dynasty thread, maybe no amount of discussion on a player feels complete without you chiming in, so you just capped the discussion for RM.I remember reading something by Football Outsiders (at least I think it was them) about how 1st round TEs almost always pan out, but almost never right away. How good must Vernon Davis be to be putting up these numbers in SF? I would have guessed they'd need a better QB before we'd see these numbers from Davis.
one time
Footballguy
I then turned around and traded that 1st rounder with my 1st rounder and Percy Harvin for Vincent Jackson. Not as good of a deal value wise but I got value for Harvin whom Im not as high on as most people. I've gotten some killer deals using your blog + my perceptions along with active trading
I think a good buy low. His ypg is the highest of his career and almost his highest ypr. All that's missing is the TDs. Vincent Jackson is stealing all of them.
gianmarco
Footballguy
FixedI then turned around and traded that 1st rounder with my 1st rounder and Percy Harvin for Vincent Jackson. Not as good of a deal value wise but I got value for Harvin whom Im not as high on as most people. I've gotten some killer deals using your blog + my perceptions + some silly owners along with active trading
Rushmore
Footballguy
I didn't want to muddy up what is a fantastic thread (perhaps my favorite in the whole forum), but want to clarify a bit to end it with this post hopefully, since there have been 3 replies already. I actually pm'd F&L to explain to keep it out of the thread lol. Anyway, thanks for your thoughts too. This may be hard to explain, but to sum it up (and what i tried to say in my pm) is that my actual post/response wasn't intended as a sarcastic reply publicly, but in all honesty there was a slight degree of disappointment that had stemmed from asking a few other times a page or two ago and just wanting some sort of reply like others were getting. My post was kind of a "i'll just leave it alone" type of thing, but perhaps some of my real feelings on the matter sort of shown through. Anyway, it's all good....I'll prefer to just kick back and continue enjoying what again, is an awesome thread. Thanks to those who contribute.
Troy McClure
Footballguy
With the impending return of Darren McFadden this weekend, anyone have any thoughts on his value in a dynasty PPR league? He's been offered to me along with a 2010 2nd rounder for my 2010 1st rounder. To me, it seems like a no-brainer to accept, but 1st round picks in this league are more valuable because it's a start 2-QB league with only 12 owners, so rookie QBs are way more valuable than in other leagues. Plus, I'm finding it hard to pull the trigger on acquiring anyone in the Raiders offense. Is McFadden's talent and upside worth the chance or is he a Raider for the next few years (under contract until 2013???) which kills his value.
one time
Footballguy
If you actively look for trades in your league, you will find owners that value some players or picks fairly high. If you aren't finding these kind of deals its because you're not looking or you're in a VERY stingy league.
Edit: It is easier in dynasty leagues due to the obvious "do I start to rebuild or try to win now" factor
Edit: It is easier in dynasty leagues due to the obvious "do I start to rebuild or try to win now" factor
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valhallan
Footballguy
Correct. I'd like to see fewer of these "trade value representations" being peddled as useful. 99.9999% of Steve Smiff owners are not bundling him with a 1st for Elisha Manning. You found the one that would, congrats, but it doesn't contribute to the thread.FixedI then turned around and traded that 1st rounder with my 1st rounder and Percy Harvin for Vincent Jackson. Not as good of a deal value wise but I got value for Harvin whom Im not as high on as most people. I've gotten some killer deals using your blog + my perceptions + some silly owners along with active trading
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I'm of a like mind. I like seeing the increased participation lately, but the trade questions are turning this into an assistant coach/what would you do thread. I wish I could pin a response to the increasingly common "Which player should I target in return if I want to deal ________." Look, the blog rankings are a free guideline, the discussion here -- with SSOG bringing his A-game -- is free and increasingly more valuable. Rotoworld has free player analysis and updates. Football Outsiders has advanced metrics for free. The information is out there. Study up on the free knowledge-drops, look over the rosters in your league to find a match for your player, target a player you like on that roster, and then offer a trade for him. You want us to pleasure your wife for you too while we're running your fantasy team?
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
It's all good.I didn't want to muddy up what is a fantastic thread (perhaps my favorite in the whole forum), but want to clarify a bit to end it with this post hopefully, since there have been 3 replies already. I actually pm'd F&L to explain to keep it out of the thread lol. Anyway, thanks for your thoughts too. This may be hard to explain, but to sum it up (and what i tried to say in my pm) is that my actual post/response wasn't intended as a sarcastic reply publicly, but in all honesty there was a slight degree of disappointment that had stemmed from asking a few other times a page or two ago and just wanting some sort of reply like others were getting. My post was kind of a "i'll just leave it alone" type of thing, but perhaps some of my real feelings on the matter sort of shown through. Anyway, it's all good....I'll prefer to just kick back and continue enjoying what again, is an awesome thread. Thanks to those who contribute.
ditka85
Footballguy
As long as I'm not home at the time, help yourself.I'm of a like mind. I like seeing the increased participation lately, but the trade questions are turning this into an assistant coach/what would you do thread. I wish I could pin a response to the increasingly common "Which player should I target in return if I want to deal ________." Look, the blog rankings are a free guideline, the discussion here -- with SSOG bringing his A-game -- is free and increasingly more valuable. Rotoworld has free player analysis and updates. Football Outsiders has advanced metrics for free. The information is out there. Study up on the free knowledge-drops, look over the rosters in your league to find a match for your player, target a player you like on that roster, and then offer a trade for him. You want us to pleasure your wife for you too while we're running your fantasy team?
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Thank you. Been thinking this for a while. Too much AC stuff in this thread this year. Adding a lot of pages, but not a lot of value.I'm of a like mind. I like seeing the increased participation lately, but the trade questions are turning this into an assistant coach/what would you do thread. I wish I could pin a response to the increasingly common "Which player should I target in return if I want to deal ________." Look, the blog rankings are a free guideline, the discussion here -- with SSOG bringing his A-game -- is free and increasingly more valuable. Rotoworld has free player analysis and updates. Football Outsiders has advanced metrics for free. The information is out there. Study up on the free knowledge-drops, look over the rosters in your league to find a match for your player, target a player you like on that roster, and then offer a trade for him. You want us to pleasure your wife for you too while we're running your fantasy team?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Not really. Rice may be small in stature but he's built thick and runs with power and great balance. He's built like and runs a lot like Emmit Smith who was a fine inside runner. Charles is a lot more slender and doesn't have the frame to add a lot of weight. I do agree that he is talented and should be a good ppr player though.ETA: At Rutgers he was also a fine inside runner. In fact he was hardly ever used like he's being used in Baltimore (as a pass catcher out in space).
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In general I agree. But some people post trades that do offer insite to value.I think it was SSOG that said he got Caldwell and a 4th for Mason and a 3rd.
That seems to show decent market value.
And when I said I got SS and Devery for H ward Mason and a 1st. I think thats probably closer to market value and I hope it helps others looking to make deals.
I think its more about some bragging about there sweet deals and that does nothing for this thread.
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mcintyre1
Footballguy
The resurgence of Cedric Benson actually affected my thinking when I traded for McFadden. I'm also in a Dynasty PPR, and I acquired McFadden for my 2010 first round pick (late). If Cedric Benson (by all accounts this time last year, a total bust) can have such a resurgence, I believe in McFadden's long term value regardless of team. He's only 22 years old, and he's certainly talented. I'd say go for it.
kremenull
Footballguy
From what I recall from the '08 season, Rice primarily made his mark out of the spread formation, running a lot of draws and off-tackle plays. This season, from what I've seen hasn't been that much different. Can he run inside pretty well? Yes. But it has a whole lot to do with the o-line moreso than his talents regarding this issue. Again, I'm not comparing him to Charles as an inside runner, but let's not get to thinking that this kid is MJD.......nor is he Emmitt Smith, the all-time leading rusher in the NFL. Rice has about 2 or 3 games of 20+ carries, he's making his living in space right now.
MountainMan0726
Footballguy
Can I get a list of the most underrated, buy-low, best trade-target Dynasty WR's at this point? (3-5 players should do) 
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
I'm new to the board, so maybe I've posted a few things were not relevant to this thread. I've never asked for trade advice, but I did ask about Welker's value in a post. Mostly, I've just asked and responded to discussion concerning the strengths and weaknesses of players, and a few discussions concerning strategy. I do agree that this shouldn't be a WDIS thread, but I can also see how discussing certain players perceived value could fall into a gray area. I'll keep the value questions out from now on. I stumbled upon this thread a few months back and it's the reason I joined the board. I love to discuss strategy and prospects, so hopefully I can add to thread in the future. BTW, I'm a Browns homer. If you have any questions concerning Browns prospects, shoot away. Don't laugh.In general I agree. But some people post trades that do offer insite to value.I think it was SSOG that said he got Caldwell and a 4th for Mason and a 3rd.Correct. I'd like to see fewer of these "trade value representations" being peddled as useful. 99.9999% of Steve Smiff owners are not bundling him with a 1st for Elisha Manning. You found the one that would, congrats, but it doesn't contribute to the thread.FixedI then turned around and traded that 1st rounder with my 1st rounder and Percy Harvin for Vincent Jackson. Not as good of a deal value wise but I got value for Harvin whom Im not as high on as most people. I've gotten some killer deals using your blog + my perceptions + some silly owners along with active trading
That seems to show decent market value.
And when I said I got SS and Devery for H ward Mason and a 1st. I think thats probably closer to market value and I hope it helps others looking to make deals.
I think its more about some bragging about there sweet deals and that does nothing for this thread.
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SSOG
Moderator
1) Robert Meachem has 39 targets for his entire career. 39. For his entire career. In two and a half years. Henderson has more targets so far this year (in 8 games!) than Meachem has for his entire career. Henderson had more targets last year than Meachem has for his entire career. Henderson had more targets in 2007 than Meachem had for his entire career. Henderson had more targets in 2006 than Meachem had in his entire career. Henderson had more targets in 2005 than Meachem has in his entire two and a half year career. Can you see why I might consider Henderson's per-target numbers to be a little bit more valid and indicative than Meachem's? Heck, the opposing defenses are still always borderline shocked whenever Brees actually throws it in Meachem's direction. Also, who says Henderson is in no danger of getting an increased role? His targets this year are up 40% over his targets last year. I don't think he'll ever get a massive volume of targets, but as I said, when you're the best role player in the entire league you are never in any danger of having your role decreased. Meachem is likewise in no danger of having his role decreased, but that's mostly a function of it being impossible for him to have any smaller of a role than the one he currently has.2) Colston, Meachem, and Henderson are going to become Fitz, Boldin, and Breaston? Aside from the fact that Colston's a different player from Fitz, Meachem is no Boldin, and Henderson has a completely different skillset than Breaston, that's pretty feasible
. More seriously, there aren't enough targets in New Orleans for that trio to turn out like the Arizona trio. The Cards are on pace for 600 passing attempts this season. Last year, they had 630. Two years ago, they had 590. This year, the Saints are on pace for 530. Yes, the Saints did have massive pass attempt numbers last year and the year before, but that was when the defense was a seive and the team had a losing record. As long as this is a winning team with a solid defense, there aren't enough balls to support 3 fantasy receivers... and as I said, I think Henderson is too good in his role for him to be the guy the Saints cut out.3) Yes, Meachem has been effective the 19 times he has been targeted this season. You know who else has been super-effective on a miniscule number of targets this year? Brian Hartline. Jarrett Dillard. And in the case of both of those WRs, there's no question of their QB making them look better than they truly are. I can't be sure that Henderson's ability is the result of his talent rather than Brees, but it doesn't matter, because HENDERSON ALREADY HAS A ROLE IN THE OFFENSE. As I said, either Meachem stays and plays 3rd fiddle with Brees, or he goes elsewhere and plays 2nd fiddle with someone else. Henderson, on the other hand, is locked in to the 2nd fiddle role with Drew Brees.
4) If you think I'm out of line on Meachem and Britt, then who did I put above them that you'd but them over? Gonzo, who is my odds-on pick for the #2 WR role in Indy? James Jones, who is my odds-on pick for the #2 role in GB? Maclin, who's looked great and already has the #2 role in Philly? Jacoby, who's looked fantastic and is really taking a step forward this year? Kellen Winslow, who is the highest paid TE in the league and an absolute target monster? Malcolm Floyd, who is my odds-on pick for the #2 WR in San Diego? Greg Olsen, who's coming off a 3-TD game and was a chic pick as a top 5 dynasty TE before the season? I could easily move Meachem ahead of Collie- those two are a tossup for me, with Collie representing a higher ceiling and Meachem representing a higher floor. Other than that, who am I ranking too high? It's not that I'm saying I wouldn't want either Meachem or Britt, it's that I'm saying that I wouldn't want either over the guys I have above them.
Smiff can be WR11 when his value is in the toilet because the dynasty rankings try to estimate ACTUAL value, not PERCEIVED value. The fact that there's such a huge delta between his ACTUAL value and his PERCEIVED value simply means that he's an unbelievably good buy-low target. If the delta between his perceived and actual value was as big in the opposite direction, then he'd be the perfect SELL HIGH candidate (example: the OTHER Steve Smith).
I've gone back and forth on James Jones and Jordy Nelson, but I really think that James is pulling away right now, and I think he's the odds-on favorite to win the #2 job in Green Bay once Driver bows out. I have him solidly above Jacoby Jones, who at this point is a much more speculative type player. There's a lot more uncertainty surrounding whether Jacoby is going to get the #2 job in Houston any time soon... and the #2 in Green Bay is inherently more valuable than the #2 in Houston, anyway. I like both WRs, but I like James Jones better.
Consistency from a TE is usually a pipe dream. TEs don't score enough points over a full season to expect consistent production on a week-to-week basis. Earlier in this thread I was comparing how many times TEs scored back-to-back 10+ point games last season, and outside of Witten/Daniels/Cooley, there was no such thing as a "consistent" performer.Besides, consistency (perceived or actual) is an incredibly overrated commodity in fantasy football. I don't care how the points were scored, I just care that they were scored. If a WR gets you 10 points every single week, then he's never really helping you or hurting you. You won't lose a single game because of him, but you won't win a single game because of him, either. If another WR is getting you 20 points half the time and 0 points half the time, then he's going to single-handedly do a lot to help you win half the time... and single-handedly do a lot to help you lose the other half of the time. Neither is really any more preferable than the other, provided you have a long enough leash to be willing to eat the bad games from the inconsistent performer so that he doesn't wind up on your bench for the good games.
Late first? Sure. You won't see anyone anywhere near McFadden's talent level at the end of the first round next year. Early first? debatable, but it depends on how your WR corps looks. There are some really nice looking WRs coming out next year.
SSOG
Moderator
That was EBF who pulled off the Caldwell trade in question. I landed Caldwell for my #1 waiver priority after week 1 because he impressed me so much against Denver.
You joke that it's a fishing trip, but I actually think this is a quality question. Questions like "do you like ______ more than _______?" only pertain to 5% of dynasty owners. Questions like "What do you think about ________?" pertain to maybe 20% of dynasty owners. Questions like "Who are good targets to buy low?" pertain to everyone.For my part, I think some great buy low targets are Smiff (already discussed), Vincent Jackson (I know he's not cheap, but I have him at WR4 and his cost hasn't risen anywhere near that high yet, so now is the time to buy), James Jones (it's looking like he's the guy who'll take over for Driver going forward), Chas Schilens (out of sight, out of mind... it's easy to forget, but the Raiders won't be this terrible forever), and Devin Hester (there are still a lot of skeptics who are convinced he can't be an NFL #1).Can I get a list of the most underrated, buy-low, best trade-target Dynasty WR's at this point? (3-5 players should do)
I don't think there's anything wrong with asking questions, just make sure the questions are very broad and applicable to everyone (for instance, instead of asking "How much is Darren McFadden worth?", try asking "what kind of difference does pedigree really make if a young RB is underperforming?"). Also, a great way to post would be to start out by giving an opinion of your own, and asking for others' thoughts on it. That makes your post a lot easier to reply to and discuss, partly because I have a better starting point or because you might make me think of something I hadn't thought of before, and partly because it doesn't feel like you're just popping in and asking to be spoonfed.I'm not really addressing this towards you in particular, because I think you've definitely contributed to the discussion so far (here and elsewhere in the SP), I was more addressing this to everyone in general. Sort of a "How To Post In The Dynasty Thread".I'm new to the board, so maybe I've posted a few things were not relevant to this thread. I've never asked for trade advice, but I did ask about Welker's value in a post. Mostly, I've just asked and responded to discussion concerning the strengths and weaknesses of players, and a few discussions concerning strategy. I do agree that this shouldn't be a WDIS thread, but I can also see how discussing certain players perceived value could fall into a gray area. I'll keep the value questions out from now on. I stumbled upon this thread a few months back and it's the reason I joined the board. I love to discuss strategy and prospects, so hopefully I can add to thread in the future. BTW, I'm a Browns homer. If you have any questions concerning Browns prospects, shoot away. Don't laugh.
Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub
Footballguy
Welker is a WR1 in PPR leagues. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. I wouldn't deal him period. I don't know how much more WR1 finishes he needs to prove he's just that. Brady's got another 5-8 years.He's not Fitz/Calvin/AJ, but he's very much in that next group.
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valhallan
Footballguy
Sigh. You're taking this pretty seriously.1 - Yeah he doesn't have many targets for his career. Henderson also had none his rookie season and only 22 catches his sophomore year and that was before Payton brought the circus to town, so presumably there'd be quite a few more balls to go around. I get that Henderson has a longer track record, but I also don't see a reason to believe Meachem wouldn't have similar numbers over the same number of seasons. In fact, he'd probably have far better numbers simply by not having Henderson's stone hands.1) Robert Meachem has 39 targets for his entire career. 39. For his entire career. In two and a half years. Henderson has more targets so far this year (in 8 games!) than Meachem has for his entire career. Henderson had more targets last year than Meachem has for his entire career. Henderson had more targets in 2007 than Meachem had for his entire career. Henderson had more targets in 2006 than Meachem had in his entire career. Henderson had more targets in 2005 than Meachem has in his entire two and a half year career. Can you see why I might consider Henderson's per-target numbers to be a little bit more valid and indicative than Meachem's? Heck, the opposing defenses are still always borderline shocked whenever Brees actually throws it in Meachem's direction. Also, who says Henderson is in no danger of getting an increased role? His targets this year are up 40% over his targets last year. I don't think he'll ever get a massive volume of targets, but as I said, when you're the best role player in the entire league you are never in any danger of having your role decreased. Meachem is likewise in no danger of having his role decreased, but that's mostly a function of it being impossible for him to have any smaller of a role than the one he currently has.2) Colston, Meachem, and Henderson are going to become Fitz, Boldin, and Breaston? Aside from the fact that Colston's a different player from Fitz, Meachem is no Boldin, and Henderson has a completely different skillset than Breaston, that's pretty feasible. More seriously, there aren't enough targets in New Orleans for that trio to turn out like the Arizona trio. The Cards are on pace for 600 passing attempts this season. Last year, they had 630. Two years ago, they had 590. This year, the Saints are on pace for 530. Yes, the Saints did have massive pass attempt numbers last year and the year before, but that was when the defense was a seive and the team had a losing record. As long as this is a winning team with a solid defense, there aren't enough balls to support 3 fantasy receivers... and as I said, I think Henderson is too good in his role for him to be the guy the Saints cut out.
3) Yes, Meachem has been effective the 19 times he has been targeted this season. You know who else has been super-effective on a miniscule number of targets this year? Brian Hartline. Jarrett Dillard. And in the case of both of those WRs, there's no question of their QB making them look better than they truly are. I can't be sure that Henderson's ability is the result of his talent rather than Brees, but it doesn't matter, because HENDERSON ALREADY HAS A ROLE IN THE OFFENSE. As I said, either Meachem stays and plays 3rd fiddle with Brees, or he goes elsewhere and plays 2nd fiddle with someone else. Henderson, on the other hand, is locked in to the 2nd fiddle role with Drew Brees.
4) If you think I'm out of line on Meachem and Britt, then who did I put above them that you'd but them over? Gonzo, who is my odds-on pick for the #2 WR role in Indy? James Jones, who is my odds-on pick for the #2 role in GB? Maclin, who's looked great and already has the #2 role in Philly? Jacoby, who's looked fantastic and is really taking a step forward this year? Kellen Winslow, who is the highest paid TE in the league and an absolute target monster? Malcolm Floyd, who is my odds-on pick for the #2 WR in San Diego? Greg Olsen, who's coming off a 3-TD game and was a chic pick as a top 5 dynasty TE before the season? I could easily move Meachem ahead of Collie- those two are a tossup for me, with Collie representing a higher ceiling and Meachem representing a higher floor. Other than that, who am I ranking too high? It's not that I'm saying I wouldn't want either Meachem or Britt, it's that I'm saying that I wouldn't want either over the guys I have above them.
2 - I didn't say they'd be the same players, I said they'd have similar roles. I don't think Henderson is nearly as irreplaceable as you do and I firmly don't believe the pass-happy Saints days are over, which is coming from a fan's perspective.
3 - Ditto, no need to rehash it. You think Henderson is an outright MVP, I think he's marginal at best... and that's after seeing every snap he's ever played.
4 - I didn't really care about your list so I didn't spend anytime crafting a rebuttal. But if you must know, I'd go:
Winslow
Britt
Maclin
Olsen
James Jones
Jacoby Jones
Meachem
Collie
Gonzalez
Floyd
That's right - I don't like Gonzalez and I've never regretted trading him two years ago for a high 2nd and Berrian.
EDIT: oops, should have put Collie over Gonzo.
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Cookiemonster
Footballguy
Emmit Smith is EXACTLY what this kid is. Not very big, not very fast, not very strong, but enough of all of the above combined with great balance and exceptional vision combined with the patience to maximise every carry. All that combined is not MJD or ADP (an elite talent which I argue Smith was not), but IS E.Smith and if his line comes anywhere close to what Dallas' line was, he will have tremendous #s by the end of his career. If his line is above average for his career, he will have Westbrook numbers at the least. In fact, I think Westbrook is a closer comparison to Rice but I don't see the injury file of Rice being nearly as long as Westy. I was saying this about Ray before he was drafted, and had to sit quietly through last year but after what he has shown this year, I'm screaming it from the mountain tops.Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub
Footballguy
LOL You [no need to name names] are nuts over Slaton, but can't get behind Rice who has looked sensational this year.
BTW Rice is a better runner & receiver than Slaton.
BTW Rice is a better runner & receiver than Slaton.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
There's no magic formula at all. It's much more art than science, though I do subscribe to the theory that talent has to trump situation when valuing players in a Dynasty format.Here's a rudimentary FAQ on the value score from the blog.
kremenull
Footballguy
Emmitt Smith who? Do you mean the Emmitt Smith who broke Walter Payton's career rushing record? That guy? Well, Ray Rice is NOT anything close to Emmitt Smith except in stature, position (RB), and skin color. Until he can rattle off at least 1 season of 300+ carries, then we may begin to say he can be a good NFL runner. Right now, Rice is a good player being used very well by his offensive coaches. As far as pounding him between the tackles like Emmitt Smith did consistently for over a decade, sorry, he has a marathon distance to go before any comparisons to all-time greats will be uttered by me. Just stop it already, please......
kremenull
Footballguy
Last time I checked, I have Rice ranked #8 and Slaton #17.......Somebody [no need to name names] should probably do a little homework......
BTW Great blocking and a ton of targets surely does wonders for a player's worth, heh.....
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Rice was hardly used at all in 2008. This season he's been the workhorse back since about week 4 and is handling every type of run - the Ravens do not play from a spread formation very often.I'm only comparing Rice to Smith in terms of build and running style - not saying he's destined for a Hall of Fame career. I watched Rice a lot in college and he is a more than capable inside runner and like I said he was hardly used as a receiver or as a guy they tried to get out in space at all. Rice has great vision, balance and enough power for his small stature to enable him to run inside effectively. I just think people make assumptions based on size somtimes that aren't warrnated.
n20
Footballguy
Jennings. After the Lions said that they would have drafted Wells if he wasn't taken ahead of them by the Cardinals it solidified my belief that they'll be looking for a complimentary back to Smith for some sort of an RBBC in the near future. Smith seems to do a decent job with his surrounding talent / situation but I think Jennings is the better dynasty player and he could be had much cheaper than prior to the year starting... I think he rebounds.
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Baron Samedi
Footballguy
I wasnt asking a about a trade, I was questioning your ranking of SS at #11 when the only people who value him that high are you guys thats all. I wanted the basis, reason, foundation as to why because maybe I was missing something or not viewing his value properly thats it. Sorry if my post did not contribute to the overall usefulness of the FF world....Fear & Loathing said:I'm of a like mind. I like seeing the increased participation lately, but the trade questions are turning this into an assistant coach/what would you do thread. I wish I could pin a response to the increasingly common "Which player should I target in return if I want to deal ________." Look, the blog rankings are a free guideline, the discussion here -- with SSOG bringing his A-game -- is free and increasingly more valuable. Rotoworld has free player analysis and updates. Football Outsiders has advanced metrics for free. The information is out there. Study up on the free knowledge-drops, look over the rosters in your league to find a match for your player, target a player you like on that roster, and then offer a trade for him. You want us to pleasure your wife for you too while we're running your fantasy team?
