Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Fear & Loathing

Dynasty Rankings

Recommended Posts

Who do you guys rate higher in dynasty? (.5 ppr)Kevin Smith or Greg Jennings? Thanks

Jennings. After the Lions said that they would have drafted Wells if he wasn't taken ahead of them by the Cardinals it solidified my belief that they'll be looking for a complimentary back to Smith for some sort of an RBBC in the near future. Smith seems to do a decent job with his surrounding talent / situation but I think Jennings is the better dynasty player and he could be had much cheaper than prior to the year starting... I think he rebounds. Edited by n20

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd like to see fewer of these "trade value representations" being peddled as useful.

I'm of a like mind. I like seeing the increased participation lately, but the trade questions are turning this into an assistant coach/what would you do thread. I wish I could pin a response to the increasingly common "Which player should I target in return if I want to deal ________." Look, the blog rankings are a free guideline, the discussion here -- with SSOG bringing his A-game -- is free and increasingly more valuable. Rotoworld has free player analysis and updates. Football Outsiders has advanced metrics for free. The information is out there. Study up on the free knowledge-drops, look over the rosters in your league to find a match for your player, target a player you like on that roster, and then offer a trade for him. You want us to pleasure your wife for you too while we're running your fantasy team? :thumbdown:
I wasnt asking a about a trade, I was questioning your ranking of SS at #11 when the only people who value him that high are you guys thats all. I wanted the basis, reason, foundation as to why because maybe I was missing something or not viewing his value properly thats it. Sorry if my post did not contribute to the overall usefulness of the FF world....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd like to see fewer of these "trade value representations" being peddled as useful.

I'm of a like mind. I like seeing the increased participation lately, but the trade questions are turning this into an assistant coach/what would you do thread. I wish I could pin a response to the increasingly common "Which player should I target in return if I want to deal ________." Look, the blog rankings are a free guideline, the discussion here -- with SSOG bringing his A-game -- is free and increasingly more valuable. Rotoworld has free player analysis and updates. Football Outsiders has advanced metrics for free. The information is out there. Study up on the free knowledge-drops, look over the rosters in your league to find a match for your player, target a player you like on that roster, and then offer a trade for him. You want us to pleasure your wife for you too while we're running your fantasy team? :lmao:
I wasnt asking a about a trade, I was questioning your ranking of SS at #11 when the only people who value him that high are you guys thats all. I wanted the basis, reason, foundation as to why because maybe I was missing something or not viewing his value properly thats it. Sorry if my post did not contribute to the overall usefulness of the FF world....
What I said above had nothing to do with you then, did it? I wasn't thinking of you or Steve Smith at all when I wrote that. It was directed specifically at all of the people asking the inane question "Which player should I target in return if I want to deal ________." Edited by Fear & Loathing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who do you guys rate higher in dynasty? (.5 ppr)Kevin Smith or Greg Jennings? Thanks

Jennings. After the Lions said that they would have drafted Wells if he wasn't taken ahead of them by the Cardinals it solidified my belief that they'll be looking for a complimentary back to Smith for some sort of an RBBC in the near future. Smith seems to do a decent job with his surrounding talent / situation but I think Jennings is the better dynasty player and he could be had much cheaper than prior to the year starting... I think he rebounds.
I agree. Jennings, with no hesitation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will appologize like everybody else if this has already been discussed:

Has drafting for dynasty changed in the last 2-3 years?

Would it not be smart to draft stud WR's that will play in the league 5-8 years over RB's that last 2-3 years (I know there are some that can last longer, but they will not be there in the second round).

I took this strategy in a dynasty that I drafted for last year. My roster is in my sig. I just feel like I will be competing for many years because in any givin week my WR's can put up 80-100 points by themselves. Leaving the rest of my team to put up 100 points and in our league 200 points will get you a win 80-90% of the weeks.

Getting this team has cost me though. I was a ####### and traded MSW, Mendenhall, and Cedric Benson this year. I traded all of them about a week too early! :goodposting:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who do you guys rate higher in dynasty? (.5 ppr)Kevin Smith or Greg Jennings? Thanks

Jennings. After the Lions said that they would have drafted Wells if he wasn't taken ahead of them by the Cardinals it solidified my belief that they'll be looking for a complimentary back to Smith for some sort of an RBBC in the near future. Smith seems to do a decent job with his surrounding talent / situation but I think Jennings is the better dynasty player and he could be had much cheaper than prior to the year starting... I think he rebounds.
I agree Jennings is a fringe nucleus player while Smith is just a quality #2 RB. There is a lot of talk on buying low on Jennings. What is a good price on Jennings? A 1st and a 2nd? Two 1sts? A WR from tier 4 + a 1st? A RB from tier 3 + a 1st? Or are those all over- or underpaying?As one of those "bad luck" teams, I want to buy, but it seems the price is always too high. He is still a top 25 WR in nonPPR so it's hard to sell to a playoff team that he won't help them this year, and it's hard to sell to a rebuilding team that with his age he won't bounce back.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This thread is overwhelming in size, so sorry if this was recently discussed.

Reggie Bush was looking like a top 5 PPR RB early last season. A lot has changed since then. His future seems fairly uncertain. This is now his 4th year (out of a 6 year contract I believe) and he has yet to fully live up to his draft status. Is this guy a career role player from here on out....or does he go back to becoming a centralized part of the offense again?

I see him as a good buy low in PPR/Kick Return leagues, just because his value is rock bottom.

Any input?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has drafting for dynasty changed in the last 2-3 years?Would it not be smart to draft stud WR's that will play in the league 5-8 years over RB's that last 2-3 years (I know there are some that can last longer, but they will not be there in the second round).

Yes, some have been building around stud WRs and QBs for years and those who had previously subscribed to the "horde all RBs" theory are moving toward WRs and QBs too. It does seem to be much easier to cycle RBs than to cycle QBs and WRs, in my experience. I think values are shifting so heavily toward WRs that now may actually be the time to land some real bargains in RBs. Guys like Jennings, Holmes, and Bowe with youth (but all will be 26+ next year) and production but not quite top 5 potential may be slightly overvalued while RBs with real top 5 potential like Wells and D.Brown may be undervalued. I haven't really seen any market deals to gauge whether that's true, but I suspect there could be some value out there in trading one of these new WR toys for your traditional high draft pick, solid pedigree RB, who at 21 or 22 years of age could have just as many productive years as those 26+ years old receivers. Something to think about. Edited by valhallan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LOL You [no need to name names] are nuts over Slaton, but can't get behind Rice who has looked sensational this year.

BTW Rice is a better runner & receiver than Slaton.

Last time I checked, I have Rice ranked #8 and Slaton #17.......Somebody [no need to name names] should probably do a little homework...... :hophead:

BTW Great blocking and a ton of targets surely does wonders for a player's worth, heh..... :unsure:

Somebody should do a little homework? Ok, I will. You were ALL OVER Slaton calling him dynamic all over the place. Now someone calls you out on it and you say you had him #17 and Rice #8? Seems in your list below, Slaton was considerably higher and Rice was nowhere to be found.

You're all over the place about your credibility and how people should be man enough to post their predictions and stick by them. So what happened?

Here are just a few tidbits of the things that I'm predicting as the 2009 season is closely approaching. These are not casual thoughts/opinions, they are formed positions and stances that I'm willing to ride with based on what I've gathered after considerable evaluation.....

1. Steve Slaton will outperform Chris Johnson over the next 3-4 years.....yes, so this does apply to dynasty. I have Slaton rated above Chris Johnson, ever so slightly, and believe that it will be close, but final production will tilt in the favor of Slaton over the next few years, beginning in '09.

2009 (FINAL) DYNASTY RANKINGS

These are my final ’09 rankings for dynasty formats. I’ve expanded the rankings of each offensive skill position, grouped them into still only 3 tiers (bolded, underlined) to keep it simple. The 3 tiers are RS, SS, TS and sleepers have been removed. However, there is a distinction from the top-end to the bottom-end of the largest tier (TS) in most cases. Commentary is included to not only critique the players but also to break down their current situations as I view it in a quick snapshot.

Let me stress that these rankings are based on PPR (1 pt per reception) leagues. That’s what I enjoy the most and if I have 10 leagues, at least 9 of ‘em would be PPR. These leagues, IMO, offer more versatility and bring different strategies to the table to promote much more lively leagues. My thinking is for the most part non-consensus, as I will (rarely) look at anyone else’s rankings, I primarily go by what my eyes see first and foremost, and as a supplement what I read from reports and information from scouts/personnel people. Some of your favorites may not be high on my lists, and some of mine not as high on yours, but hey, hopefully that's what this fantasy game is about, differences in approach and projections. Since I’m done with my dynasty startups for the year, I decided to update my previous posting from Oct. 2008. Interesting to note is that not a whole lot has changed from my early thoughts, but of course, some things had to be revised after further analysis. Anyways, have at it and feedback/criticism/discussion is welcomed.

THE RUNNERS.......MEAT ‘N POTATOES OF YOUR FANTASY MEAL

RS…..REIGN SUPREME

1. Adrian Peterson RB 6’1 ½ “ 220 Vikings

With a lethal combination of size, power, speed, and agility, “All-Day” stands alone at the top of the pile. No current RB can match Peterson’s overall skill set and he stands as the most legitimate yearly threat to amass 2300+ total yards with double-digit TDs. As the weapons continue to evolve around him, especially at QB, this beast will continue to dominate for the foreseeable future making him the absolute, clear-cut #1 RB in dynasty leagues.

SS…SIMPLY SUPERB aka SUPER STUDS

2. Maurice Jones-Drew RB 5’6” 210 Jaguars

“The Human Bowling Ball of Butcher Knives” is quite simply one of the best football players in the NFL, able to do all of the things necessary to assist his team to victory. However, sometimes these things (blocking, kick returns, etc.) haven’t always translated into huge fantasy success. Now, with his mentor Fred Taylor off in N.E., MJD has the spotlight all to himself in the Jags’ backfield. And we simply don’t expect him to not deliver, as he is not only a dynamic playmaker, capable of ripping off huge gainers and multiple TD efforts any given Sunday, but he has always received a lot of goal-line work and this should continue as he receives a pretty nice bump in touches. After signing a huge contract extension this offseason and with Taylor’s exit, MJD is poised for his best season yet, although I still do not believe he will amass much more than 300 total touches. And if the Jags are smart, he shouldn’t. They need him to be fresh down the stretch and in the playoffs, if they make it in.

3. Reggie Bush RB 6’0” 205 Saints

All the “RBI” haters take note…that’s Reggie Bush Incredible……I’ve listened to you yap on-and-on about he can’t do this, he can’t do that. Well, let me tell you what he can do…Win you fantasy championships! As previously stated, I’m primarily focused on PPR leagues, and for my $$$ “RBI” is as valuable as any player in the league. The ultimate dual-threat out of the backfield, he continues to pile up the points at a very high and consistent rate, as his per game avg. shows. Other than more games, what more can you ask for? I’m sure the haters will find something.

4. Matt Forte RB 6’1” 220 Bears

For all the doubters who lacked faith in Forte from the beginning and for some of those same doubters who still continue to knock the guy, let it go. Just admit you were, and still are, wrong…..It’s OK to miss on some evaluations, but to continue down the same erroneous path is just not smart at some point. Hop on board the train, it’s not too late. The reality of the situation is that Forte is a big-time producer. Blessed with great vision and elite feet, this guy has a very nice package of speed, power, instincts (especially his natural-looking cutback ability), and receiving skill to become, dare I say, great. He reminds me a lot of Marcus Allen. Don’t believe the haters, this kid is “The Postmaster”…goods and services gov’t certified, the cat is for real!

5. Jonathan Stewart RB 5’10” 235 Panthers

Being ahead of the curve is what this particular ranking is about, as I’ve seen enough of J-Stew to realize that this guy is what I’ll call…NO JOKE! He will bring defenders the business on every down, and once the full load is placed at his talented feet, which is coming soon (date of this commentary is Oct. 2, 2008), the league will witness a dominant force. I would not rule out this guy being #2 on the list in my projections for 2010. Strong as a bull, with excellent vision and burst, combined with very nice agility and the speed to take it to the house, the resulting product is Jonathan “NO JOKE!” Stewart…

6. Steven Jackson RB 6’2” 232 Rams

S-Jax, already in his prime for a RB (will be 26 yrs old in ‘09), has to hit the ground running (literally) heading into the ’09 season to maintain a hold of this lofty status. The new regime has placed most of the offensive burden on Jackson, and he is more than capable of carrying a heavy load. Although not an elite talent, IMO, S-Jax is a true workhorse who is ultra-competitive with versatility being his primary asset allowing him to put up great all-around numbers. The Rams have rebuilt their o-line by adding some topnotch talent in C Jason Brown and prized first round OT Jason Smith. With a shift to the West Coast offense, Jackson should be primed for a monster season, as long as he can hold up physically to the demanding workload.

7. Steve Slaton RB 5’10” 207 Texans

By not bringing in a high-priced F.A. or high round draftee at the RB position, I’m going to go out on a limb here and state that the Texans already have their marquee RB. Everyone knew that Slaton had the wheels to turn corners like a “Lambo”…that’s a Lamborghini for the linguistically lagging…but what I’ve been extremely impressed with is his willingness, and toughness, on inside runs. He runs with very good pad level and surprising power. Now he will never be confused with Adrian Peterson running inside, but in all honestly, I didn’t believe that he could do it even marginally at the NFL level. That said, I still look for this guy to be paired up with an inside “banger” eventually, but his overall versatility and play-making ability will still merit him the lead dog and compels me to a favorable comparison of Slaton to Westbrook, much more so than Chris Johnson being compared to Westbrook.

8. Frank Gore RB 5’9 ½” 212 49’ers

Gore has always been an extremely talented, yet under-appreciated RB (in fantasy circles). Exhibiting one of the best “body leans” in the game, this guy always seems to be on balance and churning forward, bursting through the slightest of openings while finishing runs with the best of ‘em. This guy is in phenomenal shape, so look for “The Inconvenient Truth” to be amongst the Top 4-5 in total yards from scrimmage for the foreseeable future. If he ever boosts his TD total, Watch Out!

9. Chris Johnson RB 5’11” 200 Titans

Johnson exhibits superior top-end speed, but what really separates him from the pack is his burst/acceleration, which is off the charts. Once this young man spots an opening, he’s through it faster than the speed of light. Yes, the kid is electrifying. And just maybe a little tougher than I anticipated as he also runs in between the tackles fairly well for a smallish back, ala Brian Westbrook in this regard. I don’t see a true comparison though to the overall skill set of Westbrook, unless he starts to display Westbrook’s/Bush’s supreme receiving ability. Not a knock on him, he just hasn’t yet displayed their pass-catching skill level, which could be the final piece of the puzzle to elevate him into the RS stratosphere…

10. Michael Turner RB 5’10” 238 Falcons

A literal “wrecking-ball” of a runner, Turner has immediately ingratiated himself to legions of fantasy diehards, some (like me) who were pretty skeptical of his decision to sign with ATL. This guy is a tough inside runner who is very difficult to bring down hombre-y-hombre and a threat to break off a long run at any moment. I’ll assume that the supporting cast around him on offense will continue to develop and “The Burner” will continue to develop himself into a consistent fantasy producer. If he adds a receiving dimension to his game, then he’ll be that much more valuable.

TS…..TERRESTRIAL SWAG

11. Darren McFadden RB 6’1 ½” 215 Raiders

Amidst all the dysfunction in RaiderLand, Run-DMC has at least shown what separates him from much of the RB pack…AN ELITE BURST…He is undeniably a special talent but he does need improvement in several areas, amongst them his patience and durability. With a (reported) super work ethic and high football IQ, I have little doubt that McFadden improves upon these areas, rising quickly to stardom. Even when he does (in ’09), the doubters/haters will still doubt/hate……it’s just what they do…

12. Beanie Wells RB 5’11” 235 Cardinals

Beanie has a lot to prove, but couldn’t have landed in a more ideal situation in AZ, where he should get on the field immediately as the Cards’ feature RB. Combining great size, dynamite power (excellent stiff-arm), good feet with surprising burst and speed, the only question for me is his durability. In many respects, Wells somewhat reminds me of an ’08 draftee with a similar skill-set and body-type who also had durability concerns entering the league (currently ranked #5 on this list). In the final analysis, I expect Wells to be the top back out of the ’09 RB class.

13. Felix Jones RB 5’11” 210 Cowboys

From Oct. 2008: “I believe this guy is one of the most talented pure runners in the game with top-notch instincts, vision, and explosion. It may be hard to fathom, but I would not at all be surprised to see “The Cat” being the primary ballcarrier in Big “D” before the end of 2010”…Today (June 2009), I believe there is no doubt that Jones will be a stud in the NFL, with Top 10 fantasy potential. I can see Felix simply outclassing MB3 in ’09, the kid is that talented, and Dallas will not be able to keep him off the field for long.

14. DeAngelo Williams RB 5’9 ½” 215 Panthers

“DeA” rewarded his patient owners in 2008 with a phenomenal season, but looking back on how it all transpired seems a bit too flukish in my eyes. I’ve always really liked the kid’s talent, and he could end up exceeding this ranking for many years to come, however, I’m ranking his backfield mate well ahead of him as I believe that as talented as Williams is, Stewart is even better.

15. Ronnie Brown RB 6’0” 230 Dolphins

Brown has always been one of the most talented RBs in the game, and even though he is approaching 28 yrs of age, I believe his best 2-3 years are still ahead of him. IMO, this guy was one of the 4-5 “special” RBs in the league prior to his injury, and going into 2009 Brown will be almost 2 full years removed from his ACL injury. I expect a huge breakout in ’09 and a Top 5 season is within reach.

16. Knowshon Moreno RB 5’11” 218 Broncos

Moreno is a very good all-around RB in the mold of a (pre-injury) Cadillac Williams. Not quite as physically gifted as the elite RBs in the league, Moreno is a heck of a football player with tremendous running instincts that will serve him well as he transitions to the next level. In this era of multiple option backfields (MOBs), it appears that Moreno may be a guy who can get a ton of touches with the Broncos based on their urgency to draft this kid. If that’s indeed proven to be the case, this ranking may turn out to be too low.

17. Kevin Smith RB 6’1” 215 Lions

Smith is a very smooth, effective RB with a very nice all-around skill set. Ala Moreno, he is not quite as physically gifted as the elite RBs in the league. I believe he can enjoy a nice run as a quality starter in the NFL for a few years, but he gives me the same feeling that I had about Addai all along, that he’s nothing special and a guy whom the Lions may look to upgrade sooner rather than later. Enjoy the run while you can.

18. Marshawn Lynch RB 5’11” 225 Bills

In watching the Bills play, in particular Lynch, I see so much potential here but am often left wondering, what’s the holdup? With such a skilled RB, the Bills still seem to be underutilizing this guy’s talents. I see a guy with very good power, vision, good speed and nice lateral agility, who should be getting 1300+ yds and 50+ catches in his sleep. Expected to be used much more in the passing game this year, Lynch is a tough guy to project at this time and with his off-the-field issues continuing, I have to move him down in my rankings for ’09. I’m unsure if the Bills will even want to extend Lynch once his rookie deal expires.

19. Clinton Portis RB 5’11” 222 Redskins

I suspect many of you are thinking that he should be ranked significantly higher. Well, I see a few too many red flags concerning “Dr. Doo-wich Big” going forward to justify a higher ranking. Portis has logged a lot of carries (projected to be over 2,000 heading into the ’09 season) and incurred significant wear and tear along the way (various degrees in severity of knee, shoulder, hip, and ankle injuries). Sure, he has looked superb the past couple of seasons, but for me, just a bit too much mileage on the tires. Portis just may enjoy another stellar season in ’09. But beyond that, the wheels may go flat on this Mercedes-Benz very quickly……

20. Rashard Mendenhall RB 5’10” 225 Steelers

I still don’t understand why Tampa Bay passed on this guy for Talib. That being the case, the jury is certainly still out on Mendenhall. However, the kid showed some power in the limited times he was on display. Hopefully, the injury thing is not something that Mendenhall will be dealing with on a regular basis as I have a feeling that the Steelers will soon part ways with Parker for such a reason (unable to stay healthy). Thus, Mendenhall will have ample opportunity to showcase his much ballyhooed skill-set.

21. Brandon Jacobs RB 6’4” 260 Giants

This guy sure does play for the right team, as he is literally a Giant……”The Incredi-Bulk” is not much of a presence in the passing game, but with a whopping 5+ ypc and a destructive “shoulder-plow” once he sniffs the goal-line, Jacobs is such a serious force in the running game and a (potential) high-volume TD-threat that he still merits Top 20 consideration in spite of his lackluster receiving totals.

22. Pierre Thomas RB 5’10” 223 Saints

Thomas has earned the right to be the guy in the Saints backfield. He has worked hard to improve (added 10+ lbs of muscle this offseason) and has produced at a high level when given the opportunity. With the Saints not addressing their RB situation in the draft nor in free agency, and with Bush as his running-mate, Thomas could find himself getting even more opportunities if Bush suffers another injury.

23. Marion Barber III RB 5’10” 225 Cowboys

“The Barberian” is one of the best closers among NFL RBs. When the 4th quarter arrives, this guy keeps going like the Energizer Bunny, delivering wallops left and right to any defender in his path. At some point, this will take a toll on Barber, but for the immediate future (next 3-4 years), he should be able to continue in this role and produce at a pretty high level in fantasy. But the anticipated emergence of Felix Jones pushes “The Barberian” down several notches in my eyes.

24. Donald Brown RB 5’10” 210 Colts

The Colts apparently landed their guy in the draft, tabbing Brown in the 1st Rd when there were also plenty other pressing needs on their team. Obviously, this doesn’t bode well for Addai long-term and Brown should be able to work his way into a pretty even timeshare at some point during the ’09 season. I like Brown’s skill set, but am not overly excited about him. Given that he landed on such a fantasy-friendly team, his prospects become that much more appealing when, and if, he gets the full-time gig. Brown is certainly a “buy” where he is currently being drafted in dynasty startups.

25. Laurence Maroney RB 5’11” 220 Patriots

I’m not ready to give up on this guy as quickly as many have already. Only 24 years old, and with aging RBs all around him, I look for Maroney to bounce back in a big way relatively soon (’09 or ’10), whether it be in a Patriot uniform or not. He will probably never be a threat to catch 50 passes, but once he re-gains the trust of his coaching staff, he simply is the most talented RB on the roster and a guy who could produce Portis-like numbers, as we’ve seen from him over short stretches.

26. LeSean McCoy RB 5’10” 205 Eagles

“Shady” has landed in the ideal spot for his skill set. And with an aging, injury-riddled star RB still around, McCoy would be wise to learn all he can from watching Westbrook go about his business as he could do quite well by trying to emulate Westbrook since their styles (and statures) are similar. The additions up front along the o-line enhance this kid’s future potential. I wouldn’t bet the farm that McCoy ends up being as good as Westbrook, but even if he gets reasonably close that would still be darn good.

27. LaDanian Tomlinson RB 5’9 ½ ” 218 Chargers

Who said that “Age Ain’t Nothin’ But a Number!”? Well, with regards to RBs, age is almost everything. LT2 will certainly go down as one of the greatest RBs ever, but all things must come to a close at some point. In dynasty drafts, I’d rather miss out on a guy’s last significant year or two than to watch helplessly as the once proud, premier players run right off a cliff (potentially) and into oblivion shortly after you drafted them. The total carries/touches have mounted to a very high level for Tomlinson, and the signs of wear and tear are right there in front of us, I refuse to be in denial. Great, HOF career for my man, but I’ll steer clear for the last stand unless I get the biggest steal since what AIG got from the gov’t .

28. Joseph Addai RB 5’10” 215 Colts

I’ll be the first to state that I’ve never been a huge fan of this guy as far as pure RB talent. Given his fortune to be in such a high-octane offense that virtually guarantees a RB will produce good numbers, Addai may soon be faced with the real possibility of moving on to another team.

29. Michael Bush RB 6’1” 240 Raiders

Another in my line of future studs that I foresee blossoming sooner rather than later. In this era of the RBBC, guys who have the potential to score a significant number of TDs as well as rack up a nice line of total yards (receiving + rushing) will become valuable commodities. Bush is one of these guys. With excellent size, feet, and terrific hands to boot, the combo of D-Mac and Bush will stamp themselves as one of the top duos in the league in ’09 and beyond.

30. Jamaal Charles RB 5’11” 205 Chiefs

Charles will be the starter in K.C. by 2010 at the latest. Very talented ballcarrier with the explosiveness teams covet as well as soft hands to be able to stay on the field on 3rd down. There are some holes in his game that need to be addressed, such as needed bulk and pass protection, but I am banking that Charles “gets it” and works hard enough to maximize his enormous talents. At this point of the rankings, I stress upside more than a “safe” guy like Ryan Grant, for example, as those safer guys, IMO, are replaceable components on their respective NFL teams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will appologize like everybody else if this has already been discussed:Has drafting for dynasty changed in the last 2-3 years?Would it not be smart to draft stud WR's that will play in the league 5-8 years over RB's that last 2-3 years (I know there are some that can last longer, but they will not be there in the second round).I took this strategy in a dynasty that I drafted for last year. My roster is in my sig. I just feel like I will be competing for many years because in any givin week my WR's can put up 80-100 points by themselves. Leaving the rest of my team to put up 100 points and in our league 200 points will get you a win 80-90% of the weeks. Getting this team has cost me though. I was a ####### and traded MSW, Mendenhall, and Cedric Benson this year. I traded all of them about a week too early! :D

This was discussed last week if you go back a few pages. Short answer is yes, drafting stud WR in Dynasty is recommended.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree Jennings is a fringe nucleus player while Smith is just a quality #2 RB.

There is a lot of talk on buying low on Jennings. What is a good price on Jennings? A 1st and a 2nd? Two 1sts? A WR from tier 4 + a 1st? A RB from tier 3 + a 1st? Or are those all over- or underpaying?

As one of those "bad luck" teams, I want to buy, but it seems the price is always too high. He is still a top 25 WR in nonPPR so it's hard to sell to a playoff team that he won't help them this year, and it's hard to sell to a rebuilding team that with his age he won't bounce back.

In a PPR dynasty Jacobs & a late 1st in 2010 landed me Jennings if that helps. I feel Jacobs at 27 and his style has got maybe 2 years left before he approaches the cliff while Jennings at 26 on a pass first team is a great asset for many more years. With all the Jennings talk in this thread covinced me to grab him now while I still could without paying last years price after he breaks out in a week or 2.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From what I recall from the '08 season, Rice primarily made his mark out of the spread formation, running a lot of draws and off-tackle plays. This season, from what I've seen hasn't been that much different. Can he run inside pretty well? Yes. But it has a whole lot to do with the o-line moreso than his talents regarding this issue. Again, I'm not comparing him to Charles as an inside runner, but let's not get to thinking that this kid is MJD.......nor is he Emmitt Smith, the all-time leading rusher in the NFL. Rice has about 2 or 3 games of 20+ carries, he's making his living in space right now.

:lmao: Emmit Smith is EXACTLY what this kid is. Not very big, not very fast, not very strong, but enough of all of the above combined with great balance and exceptional vision combined with the patience to maximise every carry. All that combined is not MJD or ADP (an elite talent which I argue Smith was not), but IS E.Smith and if his line comes anywhere close to what Dallas' line was, he will have tremendous #s by the end of his career. If his line is above average for his career, he will have Westbrook numbers at the least. In fact, I think Westbrook is a closer comparison to Rice but I don't see the injury file of Rice being nearly as long as Westy. I was saying this about Ray before he was drafted, and had to sit quietly through last year but after what he has shown this year, I'm screaming it from the mountain tops.
Emmitt Smith who? Do you mean the Emmitt Smith who broke Walter Payton's career rushing record? That guy? Well, Ray Rice is NOT anything close to Emmitt Smith except in stature, position (RB), and skin color. Until he can rattle off at least 1 season of 300+ carries, then we may begin to say he can be a good NFL runner. Right now, Rice is a good player being used very well by his offensive coaches. As far as pounding him between the tackles like Emmitt Smith did consistently for over a decade, sorry, he has a marathon distance to go before any comparisons to all-time greats will be uttered by me. Just stop it already, please......
And you can't compare ADP to Dickerson or Simpson 'cause AD hasn't had a 2000 yard rushing season. And you can't compare Crabtree to Chris Carter, and you can't compare blah, blah, blah...... please yourself.

This is a dynasty thread, and if you want to wait 'till talent has proven itself to be elite, then the only way you'll accumulate talent is by drafting it or overpaying for it. If you're not high on Ray Rice, so be it but don't flame the MANY people here that do see a lot of E.Smith in him. You probably won't see any sub 5'10" and under 215 pound guys get the ball as much as Emmit got it because the game has changed a bit since then. Now, if a back is smaller than 215, teams will usually have a good 2nd back to share the load, hence the wonderfull state of RBBC. Just because he isn't likely to attain Smith's #s, doesn't mean he's not an equal talent or the best side-by-side comparison for what we see. If you want to say he's Metcalf, fine. But to say that we can't say he's a good NFL runner 'till he has 300+ carries is a cop out. How many touches do you see this guy getting? I see 154 touches in 8 games this year. Add to that he's increased his touches significantly since rendering McGahee 2nd best in the coach's eyes in week 4. If you want to bash Ray Rice that's your right but you'd better come up with something better than "skin color" and "stature" to make your judgements because there will be many more of us to defend what we see in him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will appologize like everybody else if this has already been discussed:Has drafting for dynasty changed in the last 2-3 years?Would it not be smart to draft stud WR's that will play in the league 5-8 years over RB's that last 2-3 years (I know there are some that can last longer, but they will not be there in the second round).I took this strategy in a dynasty that I drafted for last year. My roster is in my sig. I just feel like I will be competing for many years because in any givin week my WR's can put up 80-100 points by themselves. Leaving the rest of my team to put up 100 points and in our league 200 points will get you a win 80-90% of the weeks. Getting this team has cost me though. I was a ####### and traded MSW, Mendenhall, and Cedric Benson this year. I traded all of them about a week too early! :(

This was discussed last week if you go back a few pages. Short answer is yes, drafting stud WR in Dynasty is recommended.
I think some people are going a little overboard with this. I've always espoused the importance of an elite QB and WR in Dynasty because they're money from year to year, but you can't concentrate on WRs at the expense of the rest of your starting lineup. It's still very important to have one rock-solid stud at RB. The best gameplan going into a draft remains drafting the best available young talent while rounding out a balanced nucleus lineup that can compete now and into the future. It's going to be hard to maintain a balanced nucleus if you go into the draft with the idea of selecting a stud WR in each of the first three rounds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who do you guys rate higher in dynasty? (.5 ppr)Kevin Smith or Greg Jennings? Thanks

Jennings. After the Lions said that they would have drafted Wells if he wasn't taken ahead of them by the Cardinals it solidified my belief that they'll be looking for a complimentary back to Smith for some sort of an RBBC in the near future. Smith seems to do a decent job with his surrounding talent / situation but I think Jennings is the better dynasty player and he could be had much cheaper than prior to the year starting... I think he rebounds.
I think you have to go with Jennings, but I will say that I'm much higher on Kevin Smith than most. Smith is a 3 down back who can cut on a dime. He doesn't have blazing speed or supreme power, but he's certainly a capable back IMO. Detroit's schedule hasn't been the easiest, and let's face it, no one is scared of Stafford right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will appologize like everybody else if this has already been discussed:Has drafting for dynasty changed in the last 2-3 years?Would it not be smart to draft stud WR's that will play in the league 5-8 years over RB's that last 2-3 years (I know there are some that can last longer, but they will not be there in the second round).I took this strategy in a dynasty that I drafted for last year. My roster is in my sig. I just feel like I will be competing for many years because in any givin week my WR's can put up 80-100 points by themselves. Leaving the rest of my team to put up 100 points and in our league 200 points will get you a win 80-90% of the weeks. Getting this team has cost me though. I was a ####### and traded MSW, Mendenhall, and Cedric Benson this year. I traded all of them about a week too early! :lmao:

This was discussed last week if you go back a few pages. Short answer is yes, drafting stud WR in Dynasty is recommended.
I think some people are going a little overboard with this. I've always espoused the importance of an elite QB and WR in Dynasty because they're money from year to year, but you can't concentrate on WRs at the expense of the rest of your starting lineup. It's still very important to have one rock-solid stud at RB. The best gameplan going into a draft remains drafting the best available young talent while rounding out a balanced nucleus lineup that can compete now and into the future. It's going to be hard to maintain a balanced nucleus if you go into the draft with the idea of selecting a stud WR in each of the first three rounds.
Agree, and I'm very supportive of having a top 5 dynasty QB. Those guys are GOLD in dynasty and probably harder to get than top 5 RBs because they're not as up and down every year, and they last longer than any other position. I tried in an initial draft years ago and missed with Palmer. Until this year, adding Rivers to compliment as a 1A and 1B duo, I've been hurting for a while with that team. In another, I have Manning backed up by Big Ben (I know Peyton never misses a game, but it's better to be prepared for when he does). In a craptastic team I took over to rebuild, one of my 1st moves was to dish Cutler for Ben + some. A top QB is maybe THE MOST important position to make sure you have set 'cause the Manning/Brady/Brees guys won't go away year-in and year-out and are good for 4 or 5 years at the least. I'd say landing a top 15 backup QB is also a big desire since NFL players WILL miss time. Going WR the 1st 3 rounds will give you a good start in a start 3 WR PPR league, but in a start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR or non PPR and especially 6pt all TDs leagues, I'd do my best to go with QB, WR and RB in the 1st 3 rounds. Of course, no absolute rules and your league draft tendancies will dictate.The next big thing I have learned over the last several years is how to value draft picks. They are not created equal. '07s 1.05 pick was not in any way comparable to '08s 1.05 pick. Look at the expected incoming draft class, and decide how many prospects you think are future starters on your team. In '08 I saw Stewart, Mendenhall, Rice & CJ4.24 and maybe McFadden and K.Smith and M.Kelly (possibly 7!). In '09 I saw Crabtree and maybe Moreno & Maclin with an outside chance of Harvin. Next year, I see Bryant and Dwyer and maybe Bradford. There may be one or two more once I get a better look at them. Point is, if you look ahead and see a draft class like '08, you sell off any non-essential players for draft picks later on in the season and stock up on a good class. In '09 you should have sold draft picks for proven talent or packaged them with lesser players for upgrades. Try to shoot for the picks that will land you the guys you want, otherwise sell. Do it in October and November, before the BCS bowls when rookie hype really begins if you're buying, and wait 'till the combine or closer to draft time if you're selling picks. It's usually best to shoot for a top 3 pick in an average draft class, and top 6 is good if the class is deep.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Somebody should do a little homework? Ok, I will. You were ALL OVER Slaton calling him dynamic all over the place. Now someone calls you out on it and you say you had him #17 and Rice #8? Seems in your list below, Slaton was considerably higher and Rice was nowhere to be found.

You're all over the place about your credibility and how people should be man enough to post their predictions and stick by them. So what happened?

You're quite the "Johnny Come Lately", as we call guys like you in my neck of the woods. Meaning, you come in after the fact and act like you were there all along. Can you provide a Top 5 preseason ranking of yours for Ray Rice? Seeing that he was in a potential 3-headed monster RBBC entering '09, I'd like to see what you thought back in June regarding this, and many other things that I am never scared to discuss and put in pen.....for the record!

Yes, I will miss on things, some years more or less than the previous one, but the bottom line is that I do my rankings only twice per year, so when I do release them they are VERY well researched and analyzed based on my approach to evaluations, which I will put up against anyone, anytime, anywhere. If you want to start keeping track of what you say in October-November regarding the next NFL Draft or fantasy football season vs. what I put out there, then step to the plate and deliver something instead of searching around asking for advice and opinions.....and most annoyingly, following me around, Mr. Stalker. Listen young fella, I'm not going anywhere, so if you would like to discuss football, then please stick to it........

Would you like to go through my history for me and post the things that I was well ahead of the curve on as well? I need a secretary or personal assistant, and you seem to have what it takes to fit the bill.

For the bold above, you can check my RB ranks dated Oct 27...it's called an update. And yeah, Slaton is still dynamic!..... :thumbup:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From what I recall from the '08 season, Rice primarily made his mark out of the spread formation, running a lot of draws and off-tackle plays. This season, from what I've seen hasn't been that much different. Can he run inside pretty well? Yes. But it has a whole lot to do with the o-line moreso than his talents regarding this issue. Again, I'm not comparing him to Charles as an inside runner, but let's not get to thinking that this kid is MJD.......nor is he Emmitt Smith, the all-time leading rusher in the NFL. Rice has about 2 or 3 games of 20+ carries, he's making his living in space right now.

:shrug: Emmit Smith is EXACTLY what this kid is. Not very big, not very fast, not very strong, but enough of all of the above combined with great balance and exceptional vision combined with the patience to maximise every carry. All that combined is not MJD or ADP (an elite talent which I argue Smith was not), but IS E.Smith and if his line comes anywhere close to what Dallas' line was, he will have tremendous #s by the end of his career. If his line is above average for his career, he will have Westbrook numbers at the least. In fact, I think Westbrook is a closer comparison to Rice but I don't see the injury file of Rice being nearly as long as Westy. I was saying this about Ray before he was drafted, and had to sit quietly through last year but after what he has shown this year, I'm screaming it from the mountain tops.
Emmitt Smith who? Do you mean the Emmitt Smith who broke Walter Payton's career rushing record? That guy? Well, Ray Rice is NOT anything close to Emmitt Smith except in stature, position (RB), and skin color. Until he can rattle off at least 1 season of 300+ carries, then we may begin to say he can be a good NFL runner. Right now, Rice is a good player being used very well by his offensive coaches. As far as pounding him between the tackles like Emmitt Smith did consistently for over a decade, sorry, he has a marathon distance to go before any comparisons to all-time greats will be uttered by me. Just stop it already, please......
And you can't compare ADP to Dickerson or Simpson 'cause AD hasn't had a 2000 yard rushing season. And you can't compare Crabtree to Chris Carter, and you can't compare blah, blah, blah...... please yourself.

This is a dynasty thread, and if you want to wait 'till talent has proven itself to be elite, then the only way you'll accumulate talent is by drafting it or overpaying for it. If you're not high on Ray Rice, so be it but don't flame the MANY people here that do see a lot of E.Smith in him. You probably won't see any sub 5'10" and under 215 pound guys get the ball as much as Emmit got it because the game has changed a bit since then. Now, if a back is smaller than 215, teams will usually have a good 2nd back to share the load, hence the wonderfull state of RBBC. Just because he isn't likely to attain Smith's #s, doesn't mean he's not an equal talent or the best side-by-side comparison for what we see. If you want to say he's Metcalf, fine. But to say that we can't say he's a good NFL runner 'till he has 300+ carries is a cop out. How many touches do you see this guy getting? I see 154 touches in 8 games this year. Add to that he's increased his touches significantly since rendering McGahee 2nd best in the coach's eyes in week 4. If you want to bash Ray Rice that's your right but you'd better come up with something better than "skin color" and "stature" to make your judgements because there will be many more of us to defend what we see in him.

From Oct. 27, 2009, Kremenull says......

8. Ray Rice RB 5’9” 207 Ravens

“RR” has taken a huge jump into the upper echelon of fantasy RBs. And his performance to-date is not a mirage/fluke. The kid has some serious play-making skills and his effectiveness in the passing is what could propel his value even higher. Blessed with a low center of gravity, Rice is able to squeeze through would-be tacklers on a routine basis and he maintains balance after contact as well as any RB in the league. Equipped with a very talented, and young, offensive line, I believe Rice is headed for stardom…….at least in the fantasy world. One aspect of his game that must improve is his inside running from a pro-set (I-formation).

Yeah, I don't like Ray Rice one bit.......All I'm saying is this Cookie, and I respect your opinions in here, but to compare Rice to Emmitt by saying this guy is EXACTLY Emmitt Smith is simply way off base. He isn't utilized in any form or fashion like Emmitt was, who routinely received (guesstimate) 18-24 carries per game throughout his career aside from the last few hanging-on seasons. Does he have a few similarities with regards to frame, and a little bit of his running style, yeah maybe a bit. But let's be clear about this - fantasy production and real impact are two different animals. Ray Rice is a fantasy stud (at the moment) not an NFL stud like Emmitt Smith who dominated games, often the biggest of games with his rushing. So there is where I make the distinction, given that Rice does not simply line up and run the ball in any way as well as Emmitt did.....at least not at this time

Now you mention the Peterson comparison to Dickerson. IMO, that would be a much more valid comparison to make than Rice being compared to Emmitt. Peterson is right there amongst the greats in about any RB statistic you'd like to mention over these first 2+ seasons. And his ability and production does not even warrant a question of whether he is or isn't a product of offensive utilization (i.e., system). Whereas with Rice, I'm just tempering my enthusiasm.....but by all means, I can see how many are jumping all over this kid right now, hey, the production is mighty good.....

Peace!

Edited by kremenull

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Somebody should do a little homework? Ok, I will. You were ALL OVER Slaton calling him dynamic all over the place. Now someone calls you out on it and you say you had him #17 and Rice #8? Seems in your list below, Slaton was considerably higher and Rice was nowhere to be found.

You're all over the place about your credibility and how people should be man enough to post their predictions and stick by them. So what happened?

You're quite the "Johnny Come Lately", as we call guys like you in my neck of the woods. Meaning, you come in after the fact and act like you were there all along. Can you provide a Top 5 preseason ranking of yours for Ray Rice? Seeing that he was in a potential 3-headed monster RBBC entering '09, I'd like to see what you thought back in June regarding this, and many other things that I am never scared to discuss and put in pen.....for the record!

Yes, I will miss on things, some years more or less than the previous one, but the bottom line is that I do my rankings only twice per year, so when I do release them they are VERY well researched and analyzed based on my approach to evaluations, which I will put up against anyone, anytime, anywhere. If you want to start keeping track of what you say in October-November regarding the next NFL Draft or fantasy football season vs. what I put out there, then step to the plate and deliver something instead of searching around asking for advice and opinions.....and most annoyingly, following me around, Mr. Stalker. Listen young fella, I'm not going anywhere, so if you would like to discuss football, then please stick to it........

Would you like to go through my history for me and post the things that I was well ahead of the curve on as well? I need a secretary or personal assistant, and you seem to have what it takes to fit the bill.

For the bold above, you can check my RB ranks dated Oct 27...it's called an update. And yeah, Slaton is still dynamic!..... :banned:

Way to miss the point there, chief. I was also not high on Rice and did like Slaton, for the record. Nowhere in my post did I suggest otherwise. What I did NOT do is post some nonsense about someone doing their homework when they called my rankings out as if you had Rice ahead of Slaton all along and that they "needed to do their homework". Of course you're going to be right on some things and wrong on others. But your big mouth is always touting how right you always are so when someone comes back and asks you to eat a little crow (i.e. Slaton vs. Rice), take your serving, chew it up, and wait for your next opportunity to shine. Don't throw it back on the person calling you out and accusing them of not doing their homework. You were quite eager to climb the mountain and shout out your proclamations but not so eager to admit where you were mistaken. In my neck of the woods, we call those "hypocrites".

Oh, and for your entertainment: My rankings from June

Obviously not 100% accurate, but not nearly as many whiffs, particularly at the top, as your phenomenal list (Reggie Bush? McFadden? DeAngelo?). Care to try it again next year, tough guy?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This thread is overwhelming in size, so sorry if this was recently discussed.Reggie Bush was looking like a top 5 PPR RB early last season. A lot has changed since then. His future seems fairly uncertain. This is now his 4th year (out of a 6 year contract I believe) and he has yet to fully live up to his draft status. Is this guy a career role player from here on out....or does he go back to becoming a centralized part of the offense again?I see him as a good buy low in PPR/Kick Return leagues, just because his value is rock bottom.Any input?

I don't consider him a buy-low at all, and I do believe he's merely a role player going forward. We already know that he's a horrible runner at the NFL level, and it's becoming more clear that he's not an asset as a receiver either. Sure, his hands are fantastic, and he can catch just about anything ... but he does nothing with the ball once it's in his hands. He's too busy juking and shaking and running sideways and backwards that he never gets anywhere. Pierre Thomas is a much more effective weapon in the passing game. Edited by Fear & Loathing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

to compare Rice to Emmitt by saying this guy is EXACTLY Emmitt Smith is simply way off base. He isn't utilized in any form or fashion like Emmitt was, who routinely received (guesstimate) 18-24 carries per game throughout his career aside from the last few hanging-on seasons. Does he have a few similarities with regards to frame, and a little bit of his running style, yeah maybe a bit. But let's be clear about this - fantasy production and real impact are two different animals. Ray Rice is a fantasy stud (at the moment) not an NFL stud like Emmitt Smith who dominated games, often the biggest of games with his rushing. So there is where I make the distinction, given that Rice does not simply line up and run the ball in any way as well as Emmitt did.....at least not at this time

I am not saying that Ray Rice is the most durable RB to hit the gridiron, or that he's in the most RB friendly system of the last 3 decades. I am saying that play-for-play, if Emmit were drafted by the Ravens last year, his production would look very similar to Rice's (though maybe a couple more carries and a couple fewer receptions). If you believe Smith is one of the best RB talents the NFL has ever seen, then that is where our opinions don't jive and why I threw the Westbrook comparo out there which may be a better one. Both are excellent inside runners that break arm tackles routinely despite their less-than-ideal bulk. Neither has great top-end speed but could make you miss in a phone booth. Both are terriffic recievers OOTB and both were drafted too late likely because of their small-school pedigree. And Westbrook is a more modern-day comparison. I do think Rice will offer durability closer to Smith than Westy for his career, but to suggest that ANYONE will have as many carries as Emmit is absurd, I agree. I wouldn't doubt that Rice has a very good line to run behind for his time as a Raven since the Baltimore brass seem to have their #### together when it comes to building a solid team in the trenches on both sides of the ball that can travel well and survive the inclimate playoff weather. If I were putting my dynasty RB rankings together, AD & MJD are the elite talents, and Rice is the best of the rest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Somebody should do a little homework? Ok, I will. You were ALL OVER Slaton calling him dynamic all over the place. Now someone calls you out on it and you say you had him #17 and Rice #8? Seems in your list below, Slaton was considerably higher and Rice was nowhere to be found.

You're all over the place about your credibility and how people should be man enough to post their predictions and stick by them. So what happened?

You're quite the "Johnny Come Lately", as we call guys like you in my neck of the woods. Meaning, you come in after the fact and act like you were there all along. Can you provide a Top 5 preseason ranking of yours for Ray Rice? Seeing that he was in a potential 3-headed monster RBBC entering '09, I'd like to see what you thought back in June regarding this, and many other things that I am never scared to discuss and put in pen.....for the record!

Yes, I will miss on things, some years more or less than the previous one, but the bottom line is that I do my rankings only twice per year, so when I do release them they are VERY well researched and analyzed based on my approach to evaluations, which I will put up against anyone, anytime, anywhere. If you want to start keeping track of what you say in October-November regarding the next NFL Draft or fantasy football season vs. what I put out there, then step to the plate and deliver something instead of searching around asking for advice and opinions.....and most annoyingly, following me around, Mr. Stalker. Listen young fella, I'm not going anywhere, so if you would like to discuss football, then please stick to it........

Would you like to go through my history for me and post the things that I was well ahead of the curve on as well? I need a secretary or personal assistant, and you seem to have what it takes to fit the bill.

For the bold above, you can check my RB ranks dated Oct 27...it's called an update. And yeah, Slaton is still dynamic!..... :moneybag:

Way to miss the point there, chief. I was also not high on Rice and did like Slaton, for the record. Nowhere in my post did I suggest otherwise. What I did NOT do is post some nonsense about someone doing their homework when they called my rankings out as if you had Rice ahead of Slaton all along and that they "needed to do their homework". Of course you're going to be right on some things and wrong on others. But your big mouth is always touting how right you always are so when someone comes back and asks you to eat a little crow (i.e. Slaton vs. Rice), take your serving, chew it up, and wait for your next opportunity to shine. Don't throw it back on the person calling you out and accusing them of not doing their homework. You were quite eager to climb the mountain and shout out your proclamations but not so eager to admit where you were mistaken. In my neck of the woods, we call those "hypocrites".

Oh, and for your entertainment: My rankings from June

Obviously not 100% accurate, but not nearly as many whiffs, particularly at the top, as your phenomenal list (Reggie Bush? McFadden? DeAngelo?). Care to try it again next year, tough guy?

I will never back away from any position or stance that I take. Like I said, I still do believe in Slaton, as his struggles aren't anything new that a lot of RBs have gone through. The telling factor of how it turns out for him will be how this guy responds to a little adversity. But for those that have given up on him, just make sure that you have DONE YOUR HOMEWORK and recognize what the real problem(s) are for Slaton and his situation in Houston.

Thank You Sir for sharing your consensus list that I could have just as easily obtained from CBS Sports and Yahoo!. No need to go back and forth with you yet again as I have much more important things to do.......like keep on striving to win championships in a number of my leagues this year.....

I LOVE THIS GAME!

Have a good day, young man.......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The telling factor of how it turns out for him will be how this guy responds to a little adversity. But for those that have given up on him, just make sure that you have DONE YOUR HOMEWORK and recognize what the real problem(s) are for Slaton and his situation in Houston. I LOVE THIS GAME! Have a good day, young man.......

The most accurate offseason homework on Slaton showed that he wouldn't have staying power as a stud running back.Maybe that's why he dropped precipitously to kremenull in the FB Guys Dynasty Thread league. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest awesomeness

I will never back away from any position or stance that I take. Like I said, I still do believe in Slaton, as his struggles aren't anything new that a lot of RBs have gone through. The telling factor of how it turns out for him will be how this guy responds to a little adversity. But for those that have given up on him, just make sure that you have DONE YOUR HOMEWORK and recognize what the real problem(s) are for Slaton and his situation in Houston.

Thank You Sir for sharing your consensus list that I could have just as easily obtained from CBS Sports and Yahoo!. No need to go back and forth with you yet again as I have much more important things to do.......like keep on striving to win championships in a number of my leagues this year.....

I LOVE THIS GAME!

Have a good day, young man.......

You display rampant overconfidence, belief bias, and confirmation bias.

WE GET IT!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will appologize like everybody else if this has already been discussed:

Has drafting for dynasty changed in the last 2-3 years?

Would it not be smart to draft stud WR's that will play in the league 5-8 years over RB's that last 2-3 years (I know there are some that can last longer, but they will not be there in the second round).

I took this strategy in a dynasty that I drafted for last year. My roster is in my sig. I just feel like I will be competing for many years because in any givin week my WR's can put up 80-100 points by themselves. Leaving the rest of my team to put up 100 points and in our league 200 points will get you a win 80-90% of the weeks.

Getting this team has cost me though. I was a ####### and traded MSW, Mendenhall, and Cedric Benson this year. I traded all of them about a week too early! :hophead:

I don't know how drafting and broad-range player valuations have changed, but I know how my personal valuations have changed. I've shifted a lot more of my focus away from RBs over the past 2 years. I don't know if that's a strategic shift, or merely a reaction to the proliferation of unspecial RBs in the NFL today.

I think some people are going a little overboard with this.

I've always espoused the importance of an elite QB and WR in Dynasty because they're money from year to year, but you can't concentrate on WRs at the expense of the rest of your starting lineup. It's still very important to have one rock-solid stud at RB.

The best gameplan going into a draft remains drafting the best available young talent while rounding out a balanced nucleus lineup that can compete now and into the future. It's going to be hard to maintain a balanced nucleus if you go into the draft with the idea of selecting a stud WR in each of the first three rounds.

This is true. I've been talking about building around WRs and such, but in reality, my philosophy isn't "acquire great WRs" so much as it's "acquire great players with 6+ year windows, regardless of position". It's just that, with the rise of the unspecial RBs and the massive influx of young and talented QBs devaluing the position a bit, that mostly translates to "acquire great WRs". It's not like the top 12 players on my board are WRs (I said earlier that there are 7 WRs, 4 RBs, and a QB), it's just that when you get to the second or third round and you're faced with a decision between a super-talented WR and an unspecial RB, you should choose the WR.

Emmitt Smith who? Do you mean the Emmitt Smith who broke Walter Payton's career rushing record? That guy? Well, Ray Rice is NOT anything close to Emmitt Smith except in stature, position (RB), and skin color. Until he can rattle off at least 1 season of 300+ carries, then we may begin to say he can be a good NFL runner.

This seems like an awfully odd position for a guy who two short months ago was saying that Steve Slaton was more talented than Terrell Davis. Are we going to wait until Slaton can rattle off at least 1 season of 300+ carries before saying he's a good NFL runner, too?

I will never back away from any position or stance that I take. Like I said, I still do believe in Slaton, as his struggles aren't anything new that a lot of RBs have gone through. The telling factor of how it turns out for him will be how this guy responds to a little adversity. But for those that have given up on him, just make sure that you have DONE YOUR HOMEWORK and recognize what the real problem(s) are for Slaton and his situation in Houston.

Thank You Sir for sharing your consensus list that I could have just as easily obtained from CBS Sports and Yahoo!. No need to go back and forth with you yet again as I have much more important things to do.......like keep on striving to win championships in a number of my leagues this year.....

I LOVE THIS GAME!

Have a good day, young man.......

In response to the first bolded point: that's hardly anything to celebrate. I'm backing away from positions and stances that I've taken all the time. Why? Because I'm *WRONG* all the time. Sometimes, there is far more to be gained from admitting you were wrong than there is from pretending you were right.

It's true, however, that I'm much more reluctant to back away from the processes that resulted in the position or stance that I took. For instance, with Miles Austin... I stand by my process that lightly values WRs outside of the top 20 and is generally slow to move a WR up on the strength of one or two good statistical games (note: I'm quick to move a WR up based on something other than raw statistics, though). In the case of Miles Austin, it came back and bit me. In the case of Steve Smith, it's looking like it might have served me well. As a result, I'm standing behind my process until I can find some fundamental flaw or way to improve its results. Still, even if that's what you meant- that you stand by the methods you used to arrive at your position, rather than that you stand by your position itself long after it was proven ridiculous- then it's nothing to be celebrated. While I don't often change my processes, I would never say that I NEVER change my processes, because it allows for no growth as a fantasy owner. Such mindless inflexibility is a WEAKNESS to be decried, not an asset to be boldly bandied about with bluster and bravado.

In response to the second bolded point: the point of fantasy football isn't to be more different than anyone else, it's to be more right than anyone else. If a ranking agreed heavily with the consensus but was right more than a ranking that was way off the reservation, then the "consensus" rankings WERE THE BETTER SET OF RANKINGS. The goal isn't to be different, it's to be right! Sometimes, being different yields the greatest rewards (for instance, I feel like ranking VJax as WR4 in Dynasty long before it's cool to do so could offer fantastic returns down the road). Other times, being different yields the greatest losses (for instance, being slow to come around to Miles Austin might have cost me the chance to acquire a top-10 WR for WR20-25 price). In the end, though, being different is not inherently better or worse than following the consensus. We're in a results-oriented hobby, and at the end of the day, we'll be judged by our results.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This discussion of process vs. outcome offers a nice opportunity for me to segue into some fantasy theory.

Fantasy football is all about predicting what will happen, and every prediction has two parts. First, there is the PROCESS by which you arrive at your prediction. Second, there is the RESULT of the prediction. Your process can either be good or bad; creating a set of projections based on team production and player growth that are then normalized to historical averages = good process. Throwing darts at a draft board = bad process. In addition, your results can either be good or bad; winding up with the #1 player at his position = good result. Winding up with the #100 player at his position = bad result. Let's define a "good process" as any process that will yield correct results more often than incorrect results, while "bad process" is just the opposite- any process that will yield incorrect results more often than correct results. There shouldn't be much need to define "good results" and "bad results"- I think anyone who has been playing FF for more than 3 weeks knows exactly what those look like :banned:. Anyway, using this oversimplified taxonomic scheme, there are only four different types of predictions:

#1- Good Process, Good Result

#2- Good Process, Bad Result

#3- Bad Process, Good Result

#4- Bad Process, Bad Result

#1- Good Process/Good Result (33%)

This is the brass ring of fantasy football. In an ideal world, 100% of our predictions would fall into this category. The Good Result means that we win. The Good Process means that it's sustainable. In reality, speaking strictly mathematically, if a "good process" is twice as likely to result in a good outcome as a "bad process", then this category accounts for a mere 33% of the average fantasy footballer's roster. It's discouraging, but mathematically true. While everyone thinks they're above average, by definition 50% of them are wrong.

#2- Good Process/Bad Result (17%)

This is the second most desirable type of prediction. I know, it seems counter-intuitive to call anything with a bad result "desirable", but that doesn't change the fact that this IS desirable. I would much rather be wrong about a particular player if it means that the process that led me to be wrong about him is going to cause me to be right about 2 more players in the future. The challenge for fantasy owners is seeing past the result (which is the only tangible aspect of a prediction that we can actually evaluate) and objectively evaluating the process. Good Process/Bad Result is only a desirable outcome if you've got enough fortitude to stick to your good process despite the bad result. If you don't have that type of conviction, then you'd be much better served by a bad process/bad result.

#3- Bad Process/Good Result (17%)

Don't let the good result fool you- this is far and away the worst type of projection, because it rewards your bad habits. In the case of Good Process/Bad Result, there's not as much danger of developing bad habits because we naturally always think we're right. Anything that suggests otherwise is going to be closely scrutinized before we buy into it and admit we were wrong. Anything that REINFORCES our belief that we were right, however, is an incredible danger. We don't scrutinize the processes that lead to correct predictions, because by default we assume that all of our processes are good and we view the good result as a confirmation of that belief. I don't know a single fantasy owner who is immune to the dangers of a Bad Process/Good Result prediction. Very, very rare is the man who will say after the fact "wow, I was totally right about that call, but I never should have made it because I made it for all the wrong reasons". Statistically speaking, one out of every 6 predictions will wind up in this bucket. 1 out of every 6! Fully a third of all our good calls are the result of bad processes. Is there anyone here who fells comfortable admitting that to themselves? I know I'm not! I feel like maybe a tenth of my good calls are the result of bad processes. If that! In reality, even though I'm trying to guard against the dangers, the reality is probably more than three times greater than my estimation.

#4- Bad Process/Bad Result (33%)

This category isn't as negative a it would sound. I call these the "learning experiences". Your player evaluation was flawed, and you paid the price for it- this is a great opportunity to learn from your mistakes so you don't repeat them in the future. Provided you are willing and able to revisit your processes after the season and try to separate the "good process/bad result" predictions from the "bad process/bad result" predictions, there is nothing to fear from this category. In the short term, they'll hurt your chances of winning this season, but in the long term they're just a blip on the radar.

Obviously this is all a dramatic oversimplification- processes and results can't be adequately slapped with binary "good/bad" labels. There's a such thing as good processes, and such a thing as great processes, and such a thing as superlative processes, and neutral processes. In addition, "good" and "bad" are relative- in the dark ages of fantasy football, some processes that were "good" at the time (picking up a fantasy mag and drafting from the cheatsheet) are "bad" by today's standards. Still, it really helps to think about your predictions in terms of these 4 categories. To give you some examples of each from my own personal experiences...

#1- Good Process/Good Outcome

In my initial dynasty draft, I took Jay Cutler over more proven veteran commodities like Matt Hasselbeck under the assumption that talent would trump all. A few rounds later, I grabbed Ben Roethlisberger as one of the first backups off the board under the same assumption. Several rounds later still, I grabbed Matt Schaub as one of the first QB3s off the board because I preferred a high-upside play like Schaub to most of the low-upside guys being taken around him. Obviously, the results speak for themselves- I wound up with three top-10 dynasty QBs. I was able to send two of the three QBs away in exchange for Jonathan Stewart and Vincent Jackson. The process (pay for talent more than need) was sound, and the results were phenomenal.

#2- Good Process/Bad Outcome

Two offseasons ago, I traded Javon Walker, Antonio Gates, and a late first round draft pick for Larry Fitzgerald. My process was that WRs who were as good as Fitzgerald was as young as Fitzgerald was wound up being an incredibly select group- pretty much just Jerry Rice and Randy Moss- and that a talented headcase of a WR, a late first, and a stud TE was a small price to pay for such a talent. Which, to this day, I will defend as perfect process. Of course, that #8 rookie draft pick wound up turning into Chris Johnson (which is how I would have used the selection, seeing as I was drafting for the other team and I selected Johnson for him in the first place), and Gates/CJ3 seems an awfully high price to pay in retrospect, even for Larry Fitzgerald. Another "good process/bad outcome" move came earlier this season, when I traded two WRs I had just recently picked up off the street (not even waiver claims, actual street free agents) for Donald Driver. My process was sound- my team was, in my estimation, a competitor with a massive weakness at WR, and the two guys off the street were nothing more than longshots, which is why they were available off the street. Of course, one of those guys wound up being Miles Austin, and I wound up stronger at WR than I initially thought (which meant Driver was nothing more than a benchwarmer)... but I stand by my process. Two street free agents for 1 productive vet at a position of need is a strong trade that I would make any day of the week, even if it didn't work out in this case.

#3- Bad Process/Good Outcome

I really struggle to find a great example of this, which just shows how insidious a danger it really is. One example, though, was trading Jay Cutler for the #3 Rookie Draft Pick last year (which wound up becoming Stewart). Really, it was a case of panicking at the fact that I didn't have a rookie 1st rounder (having traded mine away for Fitz). I wound up coming out of the trade a winner in retrospect, but not for the reasons why I thought I would be- Cutler's value took a massive hit when he became a malcontent and got shipped to Chicago, and the rookie class wound up being exceptional. I can't take credit for that- I didn't think of the rookie class as particularly exceptional, and I didn't think of Cutler as a malcontent- this was simply a case of a bad process leading to a good outcome.

#4- Bad Process/Bad Outcome

This is an easy one to find examples of, starting with Michael Clayton. In my initial dynasty draft, after grabbing Clayton I proclaimed that I had gotten a steal, chiding my league for letting a <26 year old WR with a 1,000 yard season on his resume fall that far. When someone pointed out that Burleson also fit the bill, I just scoffed and called Burleson junk- pretty bad process right there, ignoring my earlier reasoning and not taking a flier on Burleson, too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jeez, SSOG, just when I think your posts can't get any better you post that! Great job. That should be pinned somewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In SSOG's model up there (which is true for anything strategic) #2 and #3 are really dangerous - and I think they're where most people fall down.

#1 You don't luck into a good process very often, so most decisions there are being made by people who know what they're doing. And if a good process is being rewarded, there's no problem. You're not tempted to change it.

#4 As he points out while things didn't go well, you at least have a chance to learn from your mistake - the punishment fits the crime.

But #2 and #3 cause all sorts of problems - especially for people without a ton of experience in a field:

#2 Let's say you come up with a good process and make five decisions based on that process. Depending on what you're doing your expected success rate could be anything. But for this let's say that a good process in FF will yield a good result 60% of the time. (I just made that number up.) In a perfect world you'd hit on three of your decisions, miss on two, be better off overall and feel good about the process. However, because the world is random, you could hit on anywhere from one to five of those outcomes. Three to five and there's still no problem (in fact you're in the first option above - good process/good outcome).

But what happens if your good strategy yields only one or two 'wins'? Is the problem with the process? Or did you just get unlucky. It's really tough to tell sometimes. Do you go back to the drawing board or stick with your initial process and trust that the odds will even things out over time? IMO the answer is that you have to wait long enough to be sure it's the process that needs changing before you blow it up and start again. If you've taken the time to come up with a good process you have to be patient enough to really find out if it worked or not. Switching gears too soon leads to lurching all over the place and it becomes increasingly difficult to put a stake in the ground (and in the real world it confuses the hell out of people around you).

#3 is even worse because you don't find out that you're wrong right away - and most people are both superstitious and prone to believing that they're more talented than they are. So hitting on four or five out of five 40/60 shots is the worst thing that could happen. First you're convinced that you've got a good process. And second you'll be very reluctant to change it given the initial success. Once again, you can't get too caught up in initial results and have to have the patience to wait until your sample size is big enough that you can feel confident in the overall results.

In addition to patience, you have to track your results! Because we're all hard-wired to think we're a genius we're all prone to seeing our results as better than they are. And believing that 60% of your trades or draft picks worked out when the real number is 40% is a killer. You don't figure out until you're face down in the gutter that what you're doing hasn't worked.

Anyhow, apologies for the ramble here. This is just something I'm interested in and have thought a bit about.

Edited by wdcrob

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IMO the answer is that you have to wait long enough to be sure it's the process that needs changing before you blow it up and start again.

I think this is fairly important for people to realize. Sometimes, people would be much better if they’d just give their process a chance to work. Fantasy football grooms impatience, and it's easy to give up on someone too early. That's often the difference between #1 and #2--when owners lack faith in their own process. For example, on one team I had a choice of which three receivers to protect out of:T. HoltT. HoushmandzadehD. BoweS. RiceM. Sims-WalkerL. RobinsonBowe was a gimme. I liked MSW a lot and thought he looked great whenever he was on the field. So far, so good. I’d been a big fan of Rice and thought he had great talent, but his injury-plagued 2008 made me nervous--particularly when the Vikes drafted Harvin. Plus, I was concerned about MSW’s injury history (since alleviated by Couch Potato) and didn’t want to gamble on two guys hurting their knees again. So I kept Housh, since he’d produced for several years.Whoops. Though my assessment of Rice was good, I failed my own process by not trusting in my assessment or doing my due diligence, and making the mistake of keeping a very re-draftable talent (Housh) over someone who, if my process was right, would be keepable for years. Good process, bad decision = bad result.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In response to the first bolded point: that's hardly anything to celebrate. I'm backing away from positions and stances that I've taken all the time. Why? Because I'm *WRONG* all the time. Sometimes, there is far more to be gained from admitting you were wrong than there is from pretending you were right.

In response to the second bolded point: the point of fantasy football isn't to be more different than anyone else, it's to be more right than anyone else. If a ranking agreed heavily with the consensus but was right more than a ranking that was way off the reservation, then the "consensus" rankings WERE THE BETTER SET OF RANKINGS. The goal isn't to be different, it's to be right! Sometimes, being different yields the greatest rewards (for instance, I feel like ranking VJax as WR4 in Dynasty long before it's cool to do so could offer fantastic returns down the road). Other times, being different yields the greatest losses (for instance, being slow to come around to Miles Austin might have cost me the chance to acquire a top-10 WR for WR20-25 price). In the end, though, being different is not inherently better or worse than following the consensus. We're in a results-oriented hobby, and at the end of the day, we'll be judged by our results.

SSOG, you are a wise man in many respects, and if this was the case (regarding my comments) then yes, you would be spot on. But No, No, and No to your understanding of what I'm saying.

First off, I'm talking strictly about accountability when I state that "I dont back away from any position or stance that I take", meaning I don't run from what I say, whether shown to be right or wrong. It's simple as that.

Second, I don't try to be different to be different, I'm just gonna be me. Like Frank Sinatra's mantra, I DID IT MY WAY! I'm not going to sink my fantasy ship (metapohorically speaking) based on somebody else's thoughts. If I'm going down, it will be based on what I trust the most, and tht'd be my own thinking. And I absolutely love my chances of kicking the living snot out of consensus thinking at least 80% of the time, year-in and year-out.

And yeah, as far as a talent comparison goes, just based on pure physical ability then yes, Slaton is at least as talented as Terrell Davis, IMO. That is what I stated. And if some of the other posters are speaking on a pure physical talent level, then I can see how someone could say that Rice is close or as good as Emmitt Smith from this perspective. Now, in either case, you may have some differing of opinions and many may not agree with these assertions, but the facts of the matter are that neither Slaton nor Rice are as good of a player as either of the two comparisons (Davis or Smith)......at least not at this point in time......and that is how I took the posters' comments to mean when they stated that Rice is EXACTLY Emmitt Smith. Simply not true.

Anyway, stay busy on what you all do best and I'm going to keep doing what I do. Love it or hate it, it really doesn't matter to me just know that when I'm in your league, it'd be best to think outside the box to some degree.....There's a slew of relentless folks like myself out there going hard at this game. And to my FB Guys Dynasty mates, a short term setback is nothing to me........I embrace a (perceived) uphill climb, so don't sleep on your evaluations, I'm currently (and always) going hard and heavy on mine. And at least a couple of my "sleeping giants" will soon be emerging.... :boxing:

Good insight BTW on your process piece SSOG :thumbup:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In response to the first bolded point: that's hardly anything to celebrate. I'm backing away from positions and stances that I've taken all the time. Why? Because I'm *WRONG* all the time. Sometimes, there is far more to be gained from admitting you were wrong than there is from pretending you were right.

In response to the second bolded point: the point of fantasy football isn't to be more different than anyone else, it's to be more right than anyone else. If a ranking agreed heavily with the consensus but was right more than a ranking that was way off the reservation, then the "consensus" rankings WERE THE BETTER SET OF RANKINGS. The goal isn't to be different, it's to be right! Sometimes, being different yields the greatest rewards (for instance, I feel like ranking VJax as WR4 in Dynasty long before it's cool to do so could offer fantastic returns down the road). Other times, being different yields the greatest losses (for instance, being slow to come around to Miles Austin might have cost me the chance to acquire a top-10 WR for WR20-25 price). In the end, though, being different is not inherently better or worse than following the consensus. We're in a results-oriented hobby, and at the end of the day, we'll be judged by our results.

SSOG, you are a wise man in many respects, and if this was the case (regarding my comments) then yes, you would be spot on. But No, No, and No to your understanding of what I'm saying.

First off, I'm talking strictly about accountability when I state that "I dont back away from any position or stance that I take", meaning I don't run from what I say, whether shown to be right or wrong. It's simple as that.

Well, if that's what you meant, then that's very commendable and definitely something to be proud of.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey all, I was wondering if I could get some thoughts on some IRed players. Generally these guys can be gotten fairly cheap if the other person doesn't have space to spare and are still in the hunt. Plyers like....

James Davis - A lot of talk preseason for him, will be taking over Lewis with Harrison next year.

Leon Washington - We know hes good, especially in return leagues, but will Greene take full brunt of the snaps when/if Jones leaves at years end?

Laurent Robinson - We saw him 'break out' of sorts before getting injured. I don't know if he will ever step up as a viable WR though.

Kevin Jones - Still in Chiggy, can possibly get time back if Forte continues his average performances through the year (Not that he's a stud by any stretch)

Andre Brown - Homer in me likes him, and will probably get his fair chance with the pill depending on how we finish out the year running-wise

Thought it could be a decent batch of info on who to target for those with the space.

Edited by Kree

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey all, I was wondering if I could get some thoughts on some IRed players. Generally these guys can be gotten fairly cheap if the other person doesn't have space to spare and are still in the hunt. Plyers like....James Davis - A lot of talk preseason for him, will be taking over Lewis with Harrison next year.Leon Washington - We know hes good, especially in return leagues, but will Greene take full brunt of the snaps when/if Jones leaves at years end?Laurent Robinson - We saw him 'break out' of sorts before getting injured. I don't know if he will ever step up as a viable WR though.Kevin Jones - Still in Chiggy, can possibly get time back if Forte continues his average performances through the year (Not that he's a stud by any stretch)Andre Brown - Homer in me likes him, and will probably get his fair chance with the pill depending on how we finish out the year running-wiseThought it could be a decent batch of info on who to target for those with the space.

James Davis.....certainly worth a stash as he may have a decent chance for some PT next year :goodposting: Leon Washington.....May be at least a year plus from being able to fully recover from the devastating leg injury....I'd pass :goodposting: Laurent Robinson.....very impressed by his early season work before the injury...... :goodposting: Kevin Jones....strictly a backup who has incurred a lot of injuries in his career...... :lmao: Andre Brown.....If he can bounce back from the Achilles rupture and regain top form, an opportunity may come as Jacobs will wear down by 2011...... meh, lukewarm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

#2- Good Process/Bad OutcomeTwo offseasons ago, I traded Javon Walker, Antonio Gates, and a late first round draft pick for Larry Fitzgerald. My process was that WRs who were as good as Fitzgerald was as young as Fitzgerald was wound up being an incredibly select group- pretty much just Jerry Rice and Randy Moss- and that a talented headcase of a WR, a late first, and a stud TE was a small price to pay for such a talent. Which, to this day, I will defend as perfect process. Of course, that #8 rookie draft pick wound up turning into Chris Johnson (which is how I would have used the selection, seeing as I was drafting for the other team and I selected Johnson for him in the first place), and Gates/CJ3 seems an awfully high price to pay in retrospect, even for Larry Fitzgerald. Another "good process/bad outcome" move came earlier this season, when I traded two WRs I had just recently picked up off the street (not even waiver claims, actual street free agents) for Donald Driver. My process was sound- my team was, in my estimation, a competitor with a massive weakness at WR, and the two guys off the street were nothing more than longshots, which is why they were available off the street. Of course, one of those guys wound up being Miles Austin, and I wound up stronger at WR than I initially thought (which meant Driver was nothing more than a benchwarmer)... but I stand by my process. Two street free agents for 1 productive vet at a position of need is a strong trade that I would make any day of the week, even if it didn't work out in this case.

:goodposting: Great work, SSOG. I use the above method consistently, but I call it "overpaying to get the player you've targeted" -- a/k/a losing the battle yet winning the war.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey all, I was wondering if I could get some thoughts on some IRed players. Generally these guys can be gotten fairly cheap if the other person doesn't have space to spare and are still in the hunt. Plyers like....James Davis - A lot of talk preseason for him, will be taking over Lewis with Harrison next year.Leon Washington - We know hes good, especially in return leagues, but will Greene take full brunt of the snaps when/if Jones leaves at years end?Laurent Robinson - We saw him 'break out' of sorts before getting injured. I don't know if he will ever step up as a viable WR though.Kevin Jones - Still in Chiggy, can possibly get time back if Forte continues his average performances through the year (Not that he's a stud by any stretch)Andre Brown - Homer in me likes him, and will probably get his fair chance with the pill depending on how we finish out the year running-wiseThought it could be a decent batch of info on who to target for those with the space.

James Davis.....certainly worth a stash as he may have a decent chance for some PT next year :thumbup: Leon Washington.....May be at least a year plus from being able to fully recover from the devastating leg injury....I'd pass :goodposting: Laurent Robinson.....very impressed by his early season work before the injury...... :thumbup: Kevin Jones....strictly a backup who has incurred a lot of injuries in his career...... :thumbdown: Andre Brown.....If he can bounce back from the Achilles rupture and regain top form, an opportunity may come as Jacobs will wear down by 2011...... meh, lukewarm
Good list, kremenull. I'm pretty much in agreement here. IMO Laurent Robinson is the lottery ticket most likely to come through.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a question /comment about steve smith's(car) ranking. How could he be at #11 when I offer him straight up in my dynasty PPR for anyone ranked in the top 27 I'm be laughed at? I feel there is no other WR who's trade value is more in the toilet and I can't believe he's at #11 when I can't give the dude anyway in a 12 team 30 roster league. Two late rookie 2nd RD picks was the best offer I got so far, IHMO #11 is crazy.

Because the rest of the guys in your league are clueless?
In a Zealots league (start 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE and one flex RB/WR/TE), I just trade for Smith. I sent Tomlinson, Avery, Jacoby Jones and a middle 2010 2nd round rookie pick for him.

I've got lots of youth but was looking for a top WR and I think it was the right deal.

I'm in agreement with those who are high on Smith.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will appologize like everybody else if this has already been discussed:Has drafting for dynasty changed in the last 2-3 years?Would it not be smart to draft stud WR's that will play in the league 5-8 years over RB's that last 2-3 years (I know there are some that can last longer, but they will not be there in the second round).I took this strategy in a dynasty that I drafted for last year. My roster is in my sig. I just feel like I will be competing for many years because in any givin week my WR's can put up 80-100 points by themselves. Leaving the rest of my team to put up 100 points and in our league 200 points will get you a win 80-90% of the weeks. Getting this team has cost me though. I was a ####### and traded MSW, Mendenhall, and Cedric Benson this year. I traded all of them about a week too early! :rolleyes:

This was discussed last week if you go back a few pages. Short answer is yes, drafting stud WR in Dynasty is recommended.
I think some people are going a little overboard with this. I've always espoused the importance of an elite QB and WR in Dynasty because they're money from year to year, but you can't concentrate on WRs at the expense of the rest of your starting lineup. It's still very important to have one rock-solid stud at RB. The best gameplan going into a draft remains drafting the best available young talent while rounding out a balanced nucleus lineup that can compete now and into the future. It's going to be hard to maintain a balanced nucleus if you go into the draft with the idea of selecting a stud WR in each of the first three rounds.
Sorry to come in a little late on this...I have no qualms at all going WR/QB-heavy in an initial dynasty draft, provided the value is there. Sure, if your RBs aren't competitive, you can probably kiss off the idea of being a contender in year one. But that's ok. Bad teams get good rookie draft picks and since RB is the most plug-and-play of the positions in question, you can grab a hot rookie (or trade the high pick for an up-and-comer that you prefer) to go with some of the high-upside, value backs you initially drafted and/or accumulated along the way. Then you are strong at all positions and are ready to wreak havoc for 3-6 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a question in regard to the balance that you look for when following the "Stud WR" approach.

When you do make moves, or initially draft, from a stance of "I'm going to load up on WRs I feel are first or second tier.", what do you typically look to have for your RB corps?

For example, if you're starting 2 RBs and 3 WRs (and no flex, for the sake of the argument), what is the breakdown you look to have at the positions? I'm guessing 1 excellent RB, 1 serviceable RB and prospects and 2/3 excellent WRs, 2/3 serviceable WRs and prospects. This is where I'm unsure as to the path you're looking to follow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with the QB/WR approach as well year 1 of dynasty. Had Westbrook go 2.9 & LT 3.4 in a startup this offseason. At least 3 rounds before I would even thought about taking them. The moment you take them, you've resigned yourself to keep them through the end of their career.

Grab some fresh young RB legs in Year 2 and Year 3 (if need be) of your rookie drafts.

Edited by D'OHtis

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brandon Tate was just placed on IR. How does this affect his long term value?

rotoworld

I don't think it should change it by much at all. Anyone looking at Tate knew he wasn't going to be a factor this season so if you're going to hold him it's for next year (at least) anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brandon Tate was just placed on IR. How does this affect his long term value?

rotoworld

To be honest, I'm glad about it. Now I can put him on my league's IR and use his roster spot on another player, too. I wasn't counting on anything from Tate this year, anyway- he's a speculative buy-and-hold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a question in regard to the balance that you look for when following the "Stud WR" approach.When you do make moves, or initially draft, from a stance of "I'm going to load up on WRs I feel are first or second tier.", what do you typically look to have for your RB corps?For example, if you're starting 2 RBs and 3 WRs (and no flex, for the sake of the argument), what is the breakdown you look to have at the positions? I'm guessing 1 excellent RB, 1 serviceable RB and prospects and 2/3 excellent WRs, 2/3 serviceable WRs and prospects. This is where I'm unsure as to the path you're looking to follow.

I think you are looking for inexpensive stopgap untill an opportunity arise. Be patient. The next wave of running back to sell "before its too late" is coming in the next year imo. Look for rebuilding team to start shoping these RB in 2010:Jackson 27Williams 27Turner 28Gore 27Brown 28Addai 27Grant 27Some of them will be expensive but for rebuilding teams expensive often means youth and draft picks. Make sure you have some and some more. :football:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After winning 2 straight championships which no one had done in the 15 year history of the league, I came into 2009 wanting 3 in a row. Started out 2-2 then lost 4 in a row and am sitting at 3-6. I can still win out and do it again, but have been turning over my wr's, getting rid of some older ones that were at one time #1's on their team(no longer) and aquiring some younger guys. I have too many to go into 2010 with, but will have up until the last week of preseason to decide who to keep. I have:

Roy Willams :thumbup:

Sidney Rice- been holding since 2007

Antonio Bryant- last pick of last years rookie/free agent draft

Hakeem Nicks- pick #12 this year

Lee Evans- traded for this week

Brandon Tate

Devin Thomas

Mike Thomas

Chris Henry.

12 team IDP league. I am 4th in scoring, #1 in points scored against. I think the future looks bright, but what do you guys think about them? We start 3 every week. No ppr.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry to come in a little late on this...I have no qualms at all going WR/QB-heavy in an initial dynasty draft, provided the value is there. Sure, if your RBs aren't competitive, you can probably kiss off the idea of being a contender in year one. But that's ok. Bad teams get good rookie draft picks and since RB is the most plug-and-play of the positions in question, you can grab a hot rookie (or trade the high pick for an up-and-comer that you prefer) to go with some of the high-upside, value backs you initially drafted and/or accumulated along the way. Then you are strong at all positions and are ready to wreak havoc for 3-6 years.

I'm never willing to punt a year on purpose. I think that's ludicrous. It defeats the whole purpose of competing. It's also a year without a banner, which makes F&L cry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After winning 2 straight championships which no one had done in the 15 year history of the league, I came into 2009 wanting 3 in a row. Started out 2-2 then lost 4 in a row and am sitting at 3-6. I can still win out and do it again, but have been turning over my wr's, getting rid of some older ones that were at one time #1's on their team(no longer) and aquiring some younger guys. I have too many to go into 2010 with, but will have up until the last week of preseason to decide who to keep. I have:Roy Willams :X Sidney Rice- been holding since 2007Antonio Bryant- last pick of last years rookie/free agent draftHakeem Nicks- pick #12 this yearLee Evans- traded for this weekBrandon TateDevin ThomasMike ThomasChris Henry.12 team IDP league. I am 4th in scoring, #1 in points scored against. I think the future looks bright, but what do you guys think about them? We start 3 every week. No ppr.

Definitely not a contending unit, but Rice, Evans, and Nicks are a nice core for 2010. I'm not holding out any hope for Roy Williams, and Bryant's knucklehead issues and knee problems don't make feel good about his future. The rest of them are just grab-bag types that could turn out, but you obviously can't count on them. By the way, I saw Gran Torino last night. It was excellent. I'm talking probably one of my Top-10 of all time. Eastwood is fantastic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry to come in a little late on this...I have no qualms at all going WR/QB-heavy in an initial dynasty draft, provided the value is there. Sure, if your RBs aren't competitive, you can probably kiss off the idea of being a contender in year one. But that's ok. Bad teams get good rookie draft picks and since RB is the most plug-and-play of the positions in question, you can grab a hot rookie (or trade the high pick for an up-and-comer that you prefer) to go with some of the high-upside, value backs you initially drafted and/or accumulated along the way. Then you are strong at all positions and are ready to wreak havoc for 3-6 years.

I'm never willing to punt a year on purpose. I think that's ludicrous. It defeats the whole purpose of competing. It's also a year without a banner, which makes F&L cry.
Only one "win now" team is going to win in year one. I look at the objective is to sustain success. If I can achieve that by taking a setback in year one and not sacrificing value to do so, I don't consider that ludicrous at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry to come in a little late on this...I have no qualms at all going WR/QB-heavy in an initial dynasty draft, provided the value is there. Sure, if your RBs aren't competitive, you can probably kiss off the idea of being a contender in year one. But that's ok. Bad teams get good rookie draft picks and since RB is the most plug-and-play of the positions in question, you can grab a hot rookie (or trade the high pick for an up-and-comer that you prefer) to go with some of the high-upside, value backs you initially drafted and/or accumulated along the way. Then you are strong at all positions and are ready to wreak havoc for 3-6 years.

I'm never willing to punt a year on purpose. I think that's ludicrous. It defeats the whole purpose of competing. It's also a year without a banner, which makes F&L cry.
Only one "win now" team is going to win in year one. I look at the objective is to sustain success. If I can achieve that by taking a setback in year one and not sacrificing value to do so, I don't consider that ludicrous at all.
I do. The goal is to win every year. You can absolutely win in year one and still maintain a balanced young nucleus that can keep winning. I don't know where people came up with this idea that you have to punt the first year if you want to build an annual contender based on young talent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After winning 2 straight championships which no one had done in the 15 year history of the league, I came into 2009 wanting 3 in a row. Started out 2-2 then lost 4 in a row and am sitting at 3-6. I can still win out and do it again, but have been turning over my wr's, getting rid of some older ones that were at one time #1's on their team(no longer) and aquiring some younger guys. I have too many to go into 2010 with, but will have up until the last week of preseason to decide who to keep. I have:Roy Willams :goodposting: Sidney Rice- been holding since 2007Antonio Bryant- last pick of last years rookie/free agent draftHakeem Nicks- pick #12 this yearLee Evans- traded for this weekBrandon TateDevin ThomasMike ThomasChris Henry.12 team IDP league. I am 4th in scoring, #1 in points scored against. I think the future looks bright, but what do you guys think about them? We start 3 every week. No ppr.

Definitely not a contending unit, but Rice, Evans, and Nicks are a nice core for 2010. I'm not holding out any hope for Roy Williams, and Bryant's knucklehead issues and knee problems don't make feel good about his future. The rest of them are just grab-bag types that could turn out, but you obviously can't count on them. By the way, I saw Gran Torino last night. It was excellent. I'm talking probably one of my Top-10 of all time. Eastwood is fantastic.
I'm just hoping 1 or even 2 of those guys will look productive going into the season next year. Like I said, there are too many to keep for 2010. The guys I replaced replaced for Tate, Thomas and Thomas weren't worth holding onto. Nicks, Rice and Evans are the top 3 with Williams and probably Bryant bye week and matchup players. Hopefully Nicks will be starting soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Being a Jonathan Stewart owner is 95% questioning why I'm wasting a roster spot on him and demanding top-10 RB value as compensation in any trade, and 5% watching plays like that 45 yard touchdown and remembering why I'm wasting a roster spot on him and demanding top-10 RB value as compensation in any trade. For a 235 lb back to accelerate away from the defense like that is absurd. It looked like the defense gave up on the play after he'd gone 10 yards.

After winning 2 straight championships which no one had done in the 15 year history of the league, I came into 2009 wanting 3 in a row. Started out 2-2 then lost 4 in a row and am sitting at 3-6. I can still win out and do it again, but have been turning over my wr's, getting rid of some older ones that were at one time #1's on their team(no longer) and aquiring some younger guys. I have too many to go into 2010 with, but will have up until the last week of preseason to decide who to keep. I have:Roy Willams :X Sidney Rice- been holding since 2007Antonio Bryant- last pick of last years rookie/free agent draftHakeem Nicks- pick #12 this yearLee Evans- traded for this weekBrandon TateDevin ThomasMike ThomasChris Henry.12 team IDP league. I am 4th in scoring, #1 in points scored against. I think the future looks bright, but what do you guys think about them? We start 3 every week. No ppr.

I see a lot of upside... which is really just a nice way of saying that I see a lot of guys who have never done anything.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do. The goal is to win every year. You can absolutely win in year one and still maintain a balanced young nucleus that can keep winning. I don't know where people came up with this idea that you have to punt the first year if you want to build an annual contender based on young talent.

While I would never intentionally concede a season until I was actually eliminated, I would have no problem with fielding a team that would be better next year than it would this year. For instance, in an initial dynasty draft, I'd have no problem taking JStew high even though he'd do pretty much nothing for me in the short term. It's not that I don't want to win this year, it's that I'd rather have someone who was going to give me 5 years of great value than someone who was going to give me 3 years of great value, even if the 3-year value was more immediate and the 5-year value was more down the road.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.