BeTheMatch
Footballguy
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Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
What's the story with this Sammie Stroughter kid? I haven't been able to watch Tampa Bay at all this year. What are his strengths, weaknesses, upside, etc.... who does he remind you of?
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Week 6: 2 catches, 9 yards, 1 TDWeek 7: 2 catches, 64 yards. 0 TD
Week 8: 2 catches, 29 yards, 0 TD
Week 10: 3 catches, 45 yards, 0 TD
No, I am stunned. I assume this is a dynasty league. LT's value is limited in dynasty and redraft. This guy must believe that Benson is for real and has a longer career ahead of him then AP. Even then ... I'd be disappointed if I were another owner in the league.This trade went down in MOXFFL VI todayeterson, Adrian MIN RBLindell, Rian BUF PKforBenson, Cedric CIN RBTomlinson, LaDainian SDC RBAm I off base to be absolutely stunned by this trade?
Neo
The Dude minds
So true......in a new PPR start 3 wr league I started out with Calvin Johnson, Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Bowe. I then wound up with this crew at RB.....J. Stewart, D. Brown, Willie Parker, Leon Washington, T. Choice, D. Ware.....I'm going to be 1-9 after this week....granted I've had some really bad luck. Lost Cooley, Leon, C. Henry...not to mention some of the injuries to my top guys. It's just been a tough go. I realize I have a bright future in this league, especially if I get the 1st pick next year...which is where I'm heading, but man I drafted all my backs on potential and not production and it has definitely hurt me in the short term.Fear & Loathing said:
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sports_fan
Footballguy
Sidney Rice absolutely goes off again today. Obviously a lot of his success has to do with his relationship with Favre. But he seems to be doing everything well right now. After a slow start to his career due to injuries, Rice looks to be one of the best young WRs in the game.
The question that remains: Is his success a byproduct of his talent level? Or the excellent play of Favre?
Thoughts?
The question that remains: Is his success a byproduct of his talent level? Or the excellent play of Favre?
Thoughts?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Both. Favre is obviously playing at a high level (lmao at the trendy Favre haters this season), but Rice has always had sick talent. As long as Tarvaris Jackson doesn't take over in 2010, Rice should continue to be a fantasy asset. It's still possible that Favre will return next season. It's also possible that the team would acquire a different QB if Favre does not return ... or let Sage give it a go for a year. Tarvaris is in the final year of his contract.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
This trade went down in MOXFFL VI today
The guy who traded for Benson and Tomlinson has to be brain-dead, right?ManningissGod
Footballguy
20 team dynastyPeyton ManningJonathan StewartClinton PortisDarren Sproles (#7 in my league)Reggie WayneVincent JacksonSteve Smith (NYG)I believe i can win now and also improve (Stewart, V-Jax, Smith NYG, maybe even Sproles?) for years to come. Im currently in 1st. Last year i was rolling with Orton, Slaton, and i cant even remember who else. Somehow i made like 5 trades over this past year and came out with a very good and somewhat young team.Fear & Loathing said:
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
I was the lucky recpient of this offer. The offer was made to me around dinnertime tonight, and I think he must've been impressed with how LT looked against the Eagles or something. His other RBs are all hurt (Westbrook and LJ I think) so I assume he just wanted to make sure he had 2 startable running backs every week since he's in the playoff hunt. In a 14 team league where you can start up to 4 RBs, it's not that often that people give up starting RB depth. Heck, I tried earlier this year to trade either Steven Jackson or Frank Gore to get multiple starting RBs but couldn't find any takers.He's made several offers for Benson that I've turned down because I have one of the strongest teams in the league and needed him, but this one was too good to pass up. If Tomlinson is solid down the stretch, it might actually hurt my team for this year, but I couldn't pass up Peterson at that price. Who could?This trade went down in MOXFFL VI today
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I don't care what his reasoning is. I wouldn't touch that trade in redraft much less Dynasty.I was the lucky recpient of this offer. The offer was made to me around dinnertime tonight, and I think he must've been impressed with how LT looked against the Eagles or something. His other RBs are all hurt (Westbrook and LJ I think) so I assume he just wanted to make sure he had 2 startable running backs every week since he's in the playoff hunt. In a 14 team league where you can start up to 4 RBs, it's not that often that people give up starting RB depth. Heck, I tried earlier this year to trade either Steven Jackson or Frank Gore to get multiple starting RBs but couldn't find any takers.He's made several offers for Benson that I've turned down because I have one of the strongest teams in the league and needed him, but this one was too good to pass up. If Tomlinson is solid down the stretch, it might actually hurt my team for this year, but I couldn't pass up Peterson at that price. Who could?This trade went down in MOXFFL VI todayThe guy who traded for Benson and Tomlinson has to be brain-dead, right?
Tau837
Footballguy
I don't care what his reasoning is. I wouldn't touch that trade in redraft much less Dynasty.I was the lucky recpient of this offer. The offer was made to me around dinnertime tonight, and I think he must've been impressed with how LT looked against the Eagles or something. His other RBs are all hurt (Westbrook and LJ I think) so I assume he just wanted to make sure he had 2 startable running backs every week since he's in the playoff hunt. In a 14 team league where you can start up to 4 RBs, it's not that often that people give up starting RB depth. Heck, I tried earlier this year to trade either Steven Jackson or Frank Gore to get multiple starting RBs but couldn't find any takers.He's made several offers for Benson that I've turned down because I have one of the strongest teams in the league and needed him, but this one was too good to pass up. If Tomlinson is solid down the stretch, it might actually hurt my team for this year, but I couldn't pass up Peterson at that price. Who could?This trade went down in MOXFFL VI todayThe guy who traded for Benson and Tomlinson has to be brain-dead, right?
Exactly. You'd think that if someone was going to trade a talent like Peterson, he would at least shop him around... I'm sure he could have found a better deal. I would have given him a better deal.
Tau837
Footballguy
Yes, dynasty... and, yes, as another owner in the league, I am very disappointed to see it.No, I am stunned. I assume this is a dynasty league. LT's value is limited in dynasty and redraft. This guy must believe that Benson is for real and has a longer career ahead of him then AP. Even then ... I'd be disappointed if I were another owner in the league.This trade went down in MOXFFL VI today
SSOG
Moderator
I always hate that the most. When someone trades a player for a ridiculous lowball offer, my first thought is always "if I'd have known he was on the market I would have offered a MUCH better deal than that!". I've started making an effort to do "price checks" every couple of weeks to see if anyone's about to do anything stupid, and to let them know that instead of doing an unbelievably stupid trade with someone else, they can always just do a garden-variety stupid trade with me, instead.
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
? Benson left yesterday's game with an injury. It doesn't appear to be serious, but it just makes the offer even more amazing.
Touchdown Syndrome
Footballguy
Now he has the Senior Citizen Trifecta! Yay!Possibly the worst dynasty trade of all time.
"Wow, Tomlinson looked so good today! I won't even look to see what AP did, I'll just assume it couldnt possibly have been better than the mighty LT. OMGZZ i needz ta get Tomlinson!!!@1!!"
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GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
I always love it when you have a guy on the block for 4 months and receive 0 offers; Then as soon as you finally trade the guy, 3 guys jump in and say they would have given you a better deal.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
the number one rule when trading away studs is to shop them around. Just as an example, I traded Big Ben, Michael Turner and Santonio Holmes for Matt Cassel, AD, and Antonio Bryant. That owner took his time, shopped AD around for 2-3 weeks after receiving offers (I had made a couple before he started shopping him and assume others did too). Eventually he got a pretty good deal for his stud, Ben and Santonio will probably have long careers ahead of them and Turner is a 2nd tier stud.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
How many offers did you make?I always love it when you have a guy on the trade block for 4 months and receive 0 offers; Then as soon as you finally trade the guy, 3 guys jump in and say they would have given you a better deal.
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
No need to continue this discussion, but probably 3 or 4.How many offers did you make?I always love it when you have a guy on the trade block for 4 months and receive 0 offers; Then as soon as you finally trade the guy, 3 guys jump in and say they would have given you a better deal.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I only ask because all too often people who complain about not receiving offers are just sitting back and hoping to receive offers, too afraid to make any.No need to continue this discussion, but probably 3 or 4.How many offers did you make?I always love it when you have a guy on the trade block for 4 months and receive 0 offers; Then as soon as you finally trade the guy, 3 guys jump in and say they would have given you a better deal.
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
No problem. I wasn't sure our discussion pertains to this thread.... hence the comment. Wasn't directed towards you. The # of offers was just an example... I'm a pretty active owner.The # of potential trade partners in each league varies, but I've noticed that most of my 12 team leagues really only contain about 4 to 5 potential trade partners. Usually have 2 teams that are in no position to trade because of limited talent/picks. Usually have 3 or 4 owners who draft and set lineups, and then disappear.And then, there is always that one guy who values his players above all else and turns any trade discussion into a dramatic theatre play about how you're trying to screw him over. Not worth the headache. It's not bad though... you learn who is reasonable, and then discuss trades with those guys. Often times, you can work out deals that help both teams, and if not, you at the very least get an idea as to your players current value.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
True and I do think it pertains to this thread although not rankings, it goes to strategy. I agree with your point overall, even in large leagues (32-24 teams) I'm lucky if half the teams make sense as trading partners at any time. And then of course you're probably only interested in a handful of players at a given time.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
No. It doesn't make any sense at all. The Adrian Pterson side wins both the "going for it this year" and the "long term" side of a dynasty trade. I can't see anyone that would be willing to move Adrian Peterson for so little - even if you had no RB depth, AP + waiver wire bum is > Benson + Tomlinson.
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the_sig
Footballguy
This is a big question mark to me as well. I was hoping to see strides this year out of Rice assuming that he'd finally be healthy and figured Favre could help as well. Needless to say he has exceeded my expectations so far this year. For some reason though he is one of those guys I can't help but think 'sell high' on. Can't quite articulate what has me thinking that, but I clearly need to watch more Vikings games in the coming weeks.Love to hear the thoughts of others in this thread who have watched his play this year.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
Nothing wrong with Sidney Rice's talent. He and Harvin are going to be an excellent WR combination for a long time. He's big, fast, and catches almost everything.The question is really what you think happens after Favre leaves. Since the rest of the roster is built to be a contender I don't think they'd just sit contently with Tarvaris (barring some miraculous improvement on his part) so I tend to believe he will keep his value pretty close to intact (although there may be a rocky year or two if they can't get a guy)
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SSOG
Moderator
Not to keep going doe-eyed over Vincent Jackson, but the "will Antonio Gates ever score another TD" thread got me looking at the redzone numbers for the Chargers, and I was actually shocked at how well VJax has been doing in the Money Zone. Here are some comparisons of some of the best (or simply the most targeted) WRs/TEs in the league in the red zone so far this year. FD = First Down%, ypt = yards per target.
Larry Fitz- 56% catch, 44% FD, 38% TD, 4.4 ypt
Randy Moss- 40% catch, 20% FD, 20% TD, 3.1 ypt
Marques Colston- 71% catch, 57% FD, 36% TD, 7.1 ypt
Reggie Wayne- 56% catch, 46% FD, 46% TD, 4.3 ypt
Tony Gonzalez- 55% catch, 55% FD, 27% TD, 6.8 ypt
Roddy White- 55% catch, 36% FD, 18% TD, 4.5 ypt
Andre Johnson- 45% catch, 36% FD, 27% TD, 5.4 ypt
Owen Daniels- 70% catch, 50% FD, 40% TD, 3.8 ypt
Greg Jennings- 56% catch, 33% FD, 11% TD, 4.3 ypt
Antonio Gates- 40% catch, 20% FD, 20% TD, 1.4 ypt
Calvin Johnson- 25% catch, 12% FD, 12% TD, 1.0 ypt ( :X )
Vincent Jackson- 88% catch, 88% FD, 75% TD, 9.0 ypt (
)
Also, the numbers for some of this year's surprises-
Andre Caldwell- 89% catch, 44% FD, 33% TD, 9.0 ypt (
)
Mike Sims-Walker- 75% catch, 50% FD, 38% TD, 7.6 ypt ( )
Kellen Winslow- 100% catch, 83% FD, 67% TD, 6.8 ypt ( )
Vernon Davis- 100% catch, 86% FD, 71% TD, 10.1 ypt ( )
Desean Jackson- 14% catch, 14% FD, 0% TD, 0.6 ypt ( :X )
Miles Austin- 33% catch, 16% FD, 16% TD, 1.0 ypt ( :X )
Terrell Owens- 20% catch, 0% FD, 0% TD, 1.0 ypt ( :X )
Percy Harvin- 100% catch, 50% FD, 50% TD, 5.0 ypt ( )
When looking at red zone production, the sample sizes are so absurdly small that I prefer to look over a 2-3 year window to get a better gauge (Harvin only has 4 targets, Gates/Owens have 5, Austin/Winslow have 6, Desean/Vernon have 7, and everyone else ranges from 8-16), I was just trying to give an indication of how everyone had done so far this year. Vernon Davis and Vincent Jackson have been pretty much unstoppable inside the 20 so far this year. Desean Jackson and Miles Austin have been shockingly terrible for two guys who are really making a name for themselves between the 20s.
Larry Fitz- 56% catch, 44% FD, 38% TD, 4.4 ypt
Randy Moss- 40% catch, 20% FD, 20% TD, 3.1 ypt
Marques Colston- 71% catch, 57% FD, 36% TD, 7.1 ypt
Reggie Wayne- 56% catch, 46% FD, 46% TD, 4.3 ypt
Tony Gonzalez- 55% catch, 55% FD, 27% TD, 6.8 ypt
Roddy White- 55% catch, 36% FD, 18% TD, 4.5 ypt
Andre Johnson- 45% catch, 36% FD, 27% TD, 5.4 ypt
Owen Daniels- 70% catch, 50% FD, 40% TD, 3.8 ypt
Greg Jennings- 56% catch, 33% FD, 11% TD, 4.3 ypt
Antonio Gates- 40% catch, 20% FD, 20% TD, 1.4 ypt
Calvin Johnson- 25% catch, 12% FD, 12% TD, 1.0 ypt ( :X )
Vincent Jackson- 88% catch, 88% FD, 75% TD, 9.0 ypt (
)Also, the numbers for some of this year's surprises-
Andre Caldwell- 89% catch, 44% FD, 33% TD, 9.0 ypt (
)Mike Sims-Walker- 75% catch, 50% FD, 38% TD, 7.6 ypt (
)Kellen Winslow- 100% catch, 83% FD, 67% TD, 6.8 ypt (
)Vernon Davis- 100% catch, 86% FD, 71% TD, 10.1 ypt (
)Desean Jackson- 14% catch, 14% FD, 0% TD, 0.6 ypt ( :X )
Miles Austin- 33% catch, 16% FD, 16% TD, 1.0 ypt ( :X )
Terrell Owens- 20% catch, 0% FD, 0% TD, 1.0 ypt ( :X )
Percy Harvin- 100% catch, 50% FD, 50% TD, 5.0 ypt (
)When looking at red zone production, the sample sizes are so absurdly small that I prefer to look over a 2-3 year window to get a better gauge (Harvin only has 4 targets, Gates/Owens have 5, Austin/Winslow have 6, Desean/Vernon have 7, and everyone else ranges from 8-16), I was just trying to give an indication of how everyone had done so far this year. Vernon Davis and Vincent Jackson have been pretty much unstoppable inside the 20 so far this year. Desean Jackson and Miles Austin have been shockingly terrible for two guys who are really making a name for themselves between the 20s.
THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
nice data there SSOG.
Not to keep going doe-eyed over Vincent Jackson, but the "will Antonio Gates ever score another TD" thread got me looking at the redzone numbers for the Chargers, and I was actually shocked at how well VJax has been doing in the Money Zone. Here are some comparisons of some of the best (or simply the most targeted) WRs/TEs in the league in the red zone so far this year. FD = First Down%, ypt = yards per target.
Larry Fitz- 56% catch, 44% FD, 38% TD, 4.4 ypt
Randy Moss- 40% catch, 20% FD, 20% TD, 3.1 ypt
Marques Colston- 71% catch, 57% FD, 36% TD, 7.1 ypt
Reggie Wayne- 56% catch, 46% FD, 46% TD, 4.3 ypt
Tony Gonzalez- 55% catch, 55% FD, 27% TD, 6.8 ypt
Roddy White- 55% catch, 36% FD, 18% TD, 4.5 ypt
Andre Johnson- 45% catch, 36% FD, 27% TD, 5.4 ypt
Owen Daniels- 70% catch, 50% FD, 40% TD, 3.8 ypt
Greg Jennings- 56% catch, 33% FD, 11% TD, 4.3 ypt
Antonio Gates- 40% catch, 20% FD, 20% TD, 1.4 ypt
Calvin Johnson- 25% catch, 12% FD, 12% TD, 1.0 ypt ( :X )
Vincent Jackson- 88% catch, 88% FD, 75% TD, 9.0 ypt (
Also, the numbers for some of this year's surprises-
Andre Caldwell- 89% catch, 44% FD, 33% TD, 9.0 ypt (
Mike Sims-Walker- 75% catch, 50% FD, 38% TD, 7.6 ypt (
Kellen Winslow- 100% catch, 83% FD, 67% TD, 6.8 ypt (
Vernon Davis- 100% catch, 86% FD, 71% TD, 10.1 ypt (
Desean Jackson- 14% catch, 14% FD, 0% TD, 0.6 ypt ( :X )
Miles Austin- 33% catch, 16% FD, 16% TD, 1.0 ypt ( :X )
Terrell Owens- 20% catch, 0% FD, 0% TD, 1.0 ypt ( :X )
Percy Harvin- 100% catch, 50% FD, 50% TD, 5.0 ypt (
When looking at red zone production, the sample sizes are so absurdly small that I prefer to look over a 2-3 year window to get a better gauge (Harvin only has 4 targets, Gates/Owens have 5, Austin/Winslow have 6, Desean/Vernon have 7, and everyone else ranges from 8-16), I was just trying to give an indication of how everyone had done so far this year. Vernon Davis and Vincent Jackson have been pretty much unstoppable inside the 20 so far this year. Desean Jackson and Miles Austin have been shockingly terrible for two guys who are really making a name for themselves between the 20s.
Thanks for these.Couple thoughts:The biggest surprise on the list to me is Randy Moss with Andre Johnson a close second. I would have figured both of them would be far more productive in the red zone. Especially Johnson with the year Schaub is having.
I kind of think Kellen Winslow is the best pass catching TE in the NFL(and has been for some time) but he can't really prove it because he's forever cursed to play with awful QB's. I mean the guy put up 1,100 yards with Derek Anderson, 800 yards with Charlie Frye and was responsible for over 50% of the production in Quinn's 1 good game. This year he's been stuck with the pu-pu platter of Leftwich, Johnson and Freeman and he's looking excellent.
Harvin's 100% catch rate and 50% TD and FD rates make me think he should have way more than 4 targets. I understand they don't wanna throw too much at him because he's a rookie, but he should really be starting over Berrian. He does everything Berrian can do, only he's better at it.
Much of Desean Jackson's lack of efficiency I think has to go toward McNabb. He's seemed especially spotty in the red zone this year. Also, I don't think they've figured out how to use Jackson in that area. Maybe they need some old Isaac Bruce tapes? Then again I'm not sure Philly knows how to do much of anything in that part of the field.
Vernon Davis is especially impressive because he seemingly only runs 1 route. Its always a skinny post. I think every TD he has caught has been that route. The Bears seemed to have 3 guys sitting on that route whenever the 49ers got in the red zone last Thursday.
I too find it somewhat surprising that V-Jax has been so effective and yet Gates hasn't been. As great as V-Jax has been, I can't help but wonder if Gates is starting to decline a bit and we haven't noticed because everyone is so focused on LT's decline. The Eagles game seemed like the first time I've noticed defenses treating V-Jax as the unquestioned biggest weapon the Chargers. Then again, I've only seen 3 Chargers games this year(Pitt, Den, Philly) so maybe its been happening for weeks now.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Lots of good stuff here.Highlights that SSOG didn't already discuss:Not to keep going doe-eyed over Vincent Jackson, but the "will Antonio Gates ever score another TD" thread got me looking at the redzone numbers for the Chargers, and I was actually shocked at how well VJax has been doing in the Money Zone. Here are some comparisons of some of the best (or simply the most targeted) WRs/TEs in the league in the red zone so far this year. FD = First Down%, ypt = yards per target.
Larry Fitz- 56% catch, 44% FD, 38% TD, 4.4 ypt
Randy Moss- 40% catch, 20% FD, 20% TD, 3.1 ypt
Marques Colston- 71% catch, 57% FD, 36% TD, 7.1 ypt
Reggie Wayne- 56% catch, 46% FD, 46% TD, 4.3 ypt
Tony Gonzalez- 55% catch, 55% FD, 27% TD, 6.8 ypt
Roddy White- 55% catch, 36% FD, 18% TD, 4.5 ypt
Andre Johnson- 45% catch, 36% FD, 27% TD, 5.4 ypt
Owen Daniels- 70% catch, 50% FD, 40% TD, 3.8 ypt
Greg Jennings- 56% catch, 33% FD, 11% TD, 4.3 ypt
Antonio Gates- 40% catch, 20% FD, 20% TD, 1.4 ypt
Calvin Johnson- 25% catch, 12% FD, 12% TD, 1.0 ypt ( :X )
Vincent Jackson- 88% catch, 88% FD, 75% TD, 9.0 ypt (
Also, the numbers for some of this year's surprises-
Andre Caldwell- 89% catch, 44% FD, 33% TD, 9.0 ypt (
Mike Sims-Walker- 75% catch, 50% FD, 38% TD, 7.6 ypt (
Kellen Winslow- 100% catch, 83% FD, 67% TD, 6.8 ypt (
Vernon Davis- 100% catch, 86% FD, 71% TD, 10.1 ypt (
Desean Jackson- 14% catch, 14% FD, 0% TD, 0.6 ypt ( :X )
Miles Austin- 33% catch, 16% FD, 16% TD, 1.0 ypt ( :X )
Terrell Owens- 20% catch, 0% FD, 0% TD, 1.0 ypt ( :X )
Percy Harvin- 100% catch, 50% FD, 50% TD, 5.0 ypt (
When looking at red zone production, the sample sizes are so absurdly small that I prefer to look over a 2-3 year window to get a better gauge (Harvin only has 4 targets, Gates/Owens have 5, Austin/Winslow have 6, Desean/Vernon have 7, and everyone else ranges from 8-16), I was just trying to give an indication of how everyone had done so far this year. Vernon Davis and Vincent Jackson have been pretty much unstoppable inside the 20 so far this year. Desean Jackson and Miles Austin have been shockingly terrible for two guys who are really making a name for themselves between the 20s.
The biggest surprise on the list to me is Randy Moss with Andre Johnson a close second. I would have figured both of them would be far more productive in the red zone. Especially Johnson with the year Schaub is having.
I kind of think Kellen Winslow is the best pass catching TE in the NFL(and has been for some time) but he can't really prove it because he's forever cursed to play with awful QB's. I mean the guy put up 1,100 yards with Derek Anderson, 800 yards with Charlie Frye and was responsible for over 50% of the production in Quinn's 1 good game. This year he's been stuck with the pu-pu platter of Leftwich, Johnson and Freeman and he's looking excellent.
Harvin's 100% catch rate and 50% TD and FD rates make me think he should have way more than 4 targets. I understand they don't wanna throw too much at him because he's a rookie, but he should really be starting over Berrian. He does everything Berrian can do, only he's better at it.
Much of Desean Jackson's lack of efficiency I think has to go toward McNabb. He's seemed especially spotty in the red zone this year. Also, I don't think they've figured out how to use Jackson in that area. Maybe they need some old Isaac Bruce tapes? Then again I'm not sure Philly knows how to do much of anything in that part of the field.
Vernon Davis is especially impressive because he seemingly only runs 1 route. Its always a skinny post. I think every TD he has caught has been that route. The Bears seemed to have 3 guys sitting on that route whenever the 49ers got in the red zone last Thursday.
I too find it somewhat surprising that V-Jax has been so effective and yet Gates hasn't been. As great as V-Jax has been, I can't help but wonder if Gates is starting to decline a bit and we haven't noticed because everyone is so focused on LT's decline. The Eagles game seemed like the first time I've noticed defenses treating V-Jax as the unquestioned biggest weapon the Chargers. Then again, I've only seen 3 Chargers games this year(Pitt, Den, Philly) so maybe its been happening for weeks now.
* Um, don't worry about Randy Moss. This is small sample size at work. He's obviously money in the red zone, and it took Brady a few games to get up to speed.
* Andre Johnson isn't surprising at all. For all of his physical gifts, have you ever once heard him mentioned as a great red zone receiver? He's no Fitz in traffic. As awesome as Andre Johnson is, we're talking about a player with a career-high of 8 TDs. I guess it's also worth noting that Schaub has been a poor red-zone QB before this season ... but his improvement has surprisingly not benefited Johnson.
* DeSean Jackson will never be a good red zone receiver. It's simply not his strength, and this is what had me sleeping on him to enter the season. I paid way too much attention to his weaknesses in the red zone and not nearly enough attention to the fact that he can run by any player in the league not named Chris Johnson.
* V-Jax is simply too physically dominant for corners on deep balls as well as end-zone attempts. They can't stop him.
* Interesting point on Winslow. He's still undervalued as a receiver.
* Percy Harvin is just a great football player.
* Andre Caldwell has my attention.
* By the way, I don't care what the numbers say, Fitz is the best receiver in the league. There's an argument to be made that he's best player in the league.
* Tony Gonzalez = best TE in NFL history ... by a lot.
* Also, Calvin Johnson's team is killing him. Never worry about Calvin Johnson.
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SSOG
Moderator
Randy Moss and Andre Johnson didn't surprise me that much. Brady's been really, really scattershot so far this year, and Andre's never been hot stuff in the red zone, despite his size and obvious physical advantages. The reason I have Fitz over Andre and Calvin is because he's the only one of the "big 3" who is a proven TD threat. Which is also why VJax is on the cusp of making the jump into tier 1, too. Elite TD threats at WR are very, very rare, whereas big-time yardage guys are merely moderately uncommon. Also, despite his great season, Matt Schaub isn't anything other than an average Redzone QB, and any improvements he made in that area this year were more the result of Owen Daniels than Andre Johnson.I don't think Kellen Winslow is the best in the league. I think he could be the best in the league if he was actually at 100%, but because of his injuries early in his career, he's never going to be better than 80-90%. Still, 80-90% of Kellen Winslow is pretty darn good. He's not as large of a target as a Gates or a Gonzo, and he's not as fast or as fluid as Witten or Keller, but he's strong and he's physical and he gives it all he's got. Despite all the flak I give him for the "I'm a Soldja!" rant (I always call him Sgt. Kellen Winslow II), he really does have a gladiatorial style. He's not as good as his stats so far this year would indicate, though- that's just small sample size theater, there.The reason Harvin doesn't get targeted more in the red zone is because Visanthe Shiancoe is the go-to guy down there. 78% catch, 67% FD, 67% TD, 5.8 ypt. It really wouldn't be too far off the mark to say that all Visanthe Shiancoe does is catch TDs.I think Desean's skillset isn't suited to the red zone. Between the 20s, he's capable of getting behind defenders, and the fact that defenders know he's capable of getting behind them means it's easy for him to get open in front of them, too. In the red zone, defenders know there's no way for him to get behind them, so they can play up more and all of that junk stops opening up underneath. As good as Desean is, he really needs to work on his game in traffic if he's ever going to get some redzone lovin'. As for McNabb... Brent Celek's redzone numbers are fine. Not anything to write home about, but pretty much in line with what you'd expect from a talent like Celek. I'm not so sure McNabb is the problem, although I haven't seen the Eagles much this year.VJax is definitely the go-to guy for the Chargers, and has been for a while now... but Gates hasn't lost it. His redzone rate stats are an aberration resulting from a small sample size. No clue what's up with his small target numbers, but I'd expect them to rebound. Floyd and Naanee haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire. The two WRs combined have a 43% catch, 29% FD, 29% TD, and 4 ypt.The biggest surprise to me so far was actually a quartet of passcatchers that I didn't even list stats for. When I think of the elite redzone QBs in the league today, I think of Peyton, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Rodgers (if we count his rushing scores). Those are the guys that are always option 1a and 1b in the red zone. Despite that, one of those guys hasn't been living up to his billing so far this season. Here are the combined stats for Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, and Heath Miller: 57% catch, 43% FD, 25% TD, 4.3 ypt. That's pretty average production from an elite red zone passer like Ben. Which is why I was so surprised by his season so far- I was expecting elite TD numbers to be propping up more pedestrian yardage figures, but instead we've had elite yardage figures propping up pedestrian TD numbers. Bizarre.
SSOG
Moderator
I see F&L posted while I was writing mine out, and we wound up saying pretty much the same thing.
Some response to F&L's points-* A 26-year old VJax might be the closest thing we'll see to a 26-year old Randy Moss in terms of measurables and play style. Try as I might, Moss is really the only comp I can find for his all-around skillset. If he ever develops Moss's killer instinct, the rest of the NFL had better be afraid.
* Andre Caldwell has my attention... but Carson Palmer has my attention, too. Not only does Caldwell have impeccable RZ numbers, but Ochocinco (who has never been a great RZ receiver, either) has also been playing great (60% catch, 60% FD, 60% TD, 5.4 ypt). Even more shocking, LAVERANUES COLES, who has been an absolute disaster all over the field, has wound up putting up solid RZ numbers this year, too (63% catch, 50% FD, 38% TD, 3.8 ypt). Overall, the three Cincy receivers have a combined for a 70% catch, 52% FD, 40% TD, 5.4 ypt showing. Contrast that against the Pittsburgh corps. Cincy's comeback over Green Bay was fueled by back-to-back Carson Palmer RZ TDs, the gamewinner over Pitt was a Carson Palmer RZ TD (including a Carson Palmer 2pc pass afterwards), they forced overtime against Cleveland with a Carson Palmer RZ TD, the game-winner against Baltimore was a Carson Palmer RZ TD, the blowout over the Bears featured FIVE Carson Palmer RZ TDs, the opening score in the second Baltimore game was a Carson Palmer RZ TD... it's safe to say that had Palmer been merely average in the red zone so far, the Bengals are 5-4 and not 7-2. It's something to keep an eye on going forward- if Palmer can keep his redzone mojo working, it's possible he might work his way back into the fantasy top 10 at some point. I'm always on the lookout for QBs who are option 1a and 1b in the red zone.
* Agreed very much on Fitzgerald. I wound up posting on your blog over the offseason that I'd take him #1 overall in an initial dynasty draft, even over Peterson and MJD. Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders did a very nice article talking about how the Cardinals have been using power running formations to get Fitzgerald open recently and what life for him might look like after Anquan. What's really telling as a Fitz owner is that he's on pace for 112/1250/14... and I'm still waiting for him to really turn it on. It's scary how good he is.
DoubleG
Footballguy
I was going to be taking two classes in the off season semester - that one and F&L's "Evaluating Dynasty Talent: Winning Now and for Years To Come"
belljr
Footballguy
I've done some research on McCoy from this thread and F&L site.
How do people feel about McCoy in a PPR going forward in a dynasty.
Do we think he could be a top 10 back? Is his ceiling a top 20 RB 2.
I'm just trying to gauge what his perception is, I'm not completely sold on him but people are trying to pry a WR off of me and using McCoy.
Thanks.
Does SSOG have a blog or article to follow like F&L ?
How do people feel about McCoy in a PPR going forward in a dynasty.
Do we think he could be a top 10 back? Is his ceiling a top 20 RB 2.
I'm just trying to gauge what his perception is, I'm not completely sold on him but people are trying to pry a WR off of me and using McCoy.
Thanks.
Does SSOG have a blog or article to follow like F&L ?
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I continue to love the conversation here. Thanks for all the great insight.
I've got an open roster spot that I'm looking to fill. What is everyone's take on the following Dynasty FAs:
Forsett
Betts
Snelling
D Henderson
I hope this isn't to specific of a question. I feel like these players (especially the RBs) will be hot waiver wire commodities this week in a lot of leagues. My initial thought is that Forsett might be the best long-term option. From what I've seen of him, I like his quickness and balance, but he's really small. I'm not sure what his potential over the next 2-3 years is.
thanks guys!
I've got an open roster spot that I'm looking to fill. What is everyone's take on the following Dynasty FAs:
Forsett
Betts
Snelling
D Henderson
I hope this isn't to specific of a question. I feel like these players (especially the RBs) will be hot waiver wire commodities this week in a lot of leagues. My initial thought is that Forsett might be the best long-term option. From what I've seen of him, I like his quickness and balance, but he's really small. I'm not sure what his potential over the next 2-3 years is.
thanks guys!
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Devery Henderson is what he is. He signed a 4 year deal this summer with no obvious dummy years, so he's going to continue to be the situational deep threat for the near future.Forsett was a 7th round pick because he didn't have a good 40 time and he doesn't have the thickness the other recent 5'8" backs have had. Seems to play faster than his 40 time. Kind of a similar prospect to Ahmad Bradshaw. A few pages back F&L mentioned Louis Rankin who should also be considered as an add. I would add both Rankin and Forsett before I added Betts or Snelling.Snelling and Betts are both handcuffs only. I would only add them for trade bait or to block an owner. Both have good short term value but are nobody's solution.
Spike
Footballguy
I'm in this camp also. My thought process on it is that when Favre is gone from the Vikings, who is there to throw Rice the ball?
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
He is going to be the only game in town for Philadelphia for the next couple years, and he is going to get a lot of catches (could see 50-60 per year). But F&L and others see him as a dancer/shake & bake who is unlikely succeed long term. If it can be coached out of him, he has great upside, but it's a big reason for concern. And it's impact is already being seen:# 1-1-SD 1 (8:10) 43-L.Weaver up the middle to SD 1 for no gain (99-K.Burnett).# 2-1-SD 1 (7:30) 5-D.McNabb pass incomplete short left to 87-B.Celek.# 3-1-SD 1 (7:24) 34-E.Buckley up the middle to SD 1 for no gain (99-K.Burnett). When they trust a guy off the street to do 3rd and goal at the 1 more than you and don't even give you a chance, it probably brings down your RZ outlook a little. Maybe they were letting Buckley try to score against his old team, but I doubt Andy is that nice. Whether it's worth a lottery ticket or not depends on the WR.
ManningissGod
Footballguy
Hey F&L. I was wondering about a dynasty trade that i was offered. I posted in assistant coach, but i didnt get feedback. I enjoy looking over the dynasty blog, I am in a 20 team dynasty with IDP..
The trade sent to me was. My Clinton Portis, for his Miles Austin.
My team is as Follows. RB/WR 1 pt. per 10 yds. 6 pts td
Peyton Manning
Jim Sorgi
Jonathan Stewart
Darren Sproles ( #8 in my league due to return ydg)
Clinton Portis
Reggie Wayne
Vincent Jackson
Steve Smith (NYG)
Dustin Keller
Alge Crumpler
Chris Long
Ayodele Ogunleye
Shaun Phillips
Brian Orapko
Bryant Mcfadden
Tanard Jackson
I know the trade would leave me thin at RB. But as of now im very thin at WR also.
Would you rate my team better with Portis, or with Austin?
I am trying to win this year, my team is currently in 2nd, and i feel i have a shot either way.
Thoughts???
ALSO
IFFFF all went well, my dad wants Sproles, and a WR, and he wanted to move CJ3. If i could pull that id be in some good business. But then id be VERY thin at all positions.. with
Manning
CJ3
Stewart
Wayne
VJax
Smith OR Austin ( if i traded for Johnson)
Keller....
on a 20 team dynasty, i feel my team has a lot to compete with.
The trade sent to me was. My Clinton Portis, for his Miles Austin.
My team is as Follows. RB/WR 1 pt. per 10 yds. 6 pts td
Peyton Manning
Jim Sorgi
Jonathan Stewart
Darren Sproles ( #8 in my league due to return ydg)
Clinton Portis
Reggie Wayne
Vincent Jackson
Steve Smith (NYG)
Dustin Keller
Alge Crumpler
Chris Long
Ayodele Ogunleye
Shaun Phillips
Brian Orapko
Bryant Mcfadden
Tanard Jackson
I know the trade would leave me thin at RB. But as of now im very thin at WR also.
Would you rate my team better with Portis, or with Austin?
I am trying to win this year, my team is currently in 2nd, and i feel i have a shot either way.
Thoughts???
ALSO
IFFFF all went well, my dad wants Sproles, and a WR, and he wanted to move CJ3. If i could pull that id be in some good business. But then id be VERY thin at all positions.. with
Manning
CJ3
Stewart
Wayne
VJax
Smith OR Austin ( if i traded for Johnson)
Keller....
on a 20 team dynasty, i feel my team has a lot to compete with.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Hey, what's the word on Chris Jenning form Clev?
You have him in your Early Waiver Wire Look and I don't know much about him. Is he worth a pickup in a dynasty league?
You have him in your Early Waiver Wire Look and I don't know much about him. Is he worth a pickup in a dynasty league?
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Was a special teams player in the CFL last year.
Neo
The Dude minds
Agree with a lot of this but also realize the kid is just that....a kid. He is 21 I believe, as everyone knows, Philly passes a ton....he needs to learn his blitz pickups and blocking...one of his biggest weaknesses. He has put up very decent stats in his time as a starter but he really does need to learn how to be more decisive in his runs. He also needs to hit the weights, he needs to build a thicker frame. He definitely has the opportunity and he is definitely talented....can he carry the full load or be more of a secondary player....I think the jury is still out on that though. Top 20 definitely with a very good shot at top 10 in the next couple of years if he puts in the work....my 2 cents.
belljr
Footballguy
It's a welker or AJ. Obviously I'm not doing a 1 for 1. I think I see Mccoy less valuable then the current owner and feel the gap is wider to acquire one of them from me then they see. I was trying to get a feel of McCoy value wise. I'm more of the rb3 flex potential rb2 camp then a rb1 guy. Thanks for the input. I sometimes have trouble putting value on certain guys foe some reason and he is one of them.
thatguy
Footballguy
He might drop off initially when Favre leaves town, but what is unquestionable right now is that the kid has loads of talent - he can flat out play. He has a good combination of size, speed, body control, and ball skills that make him both a great deep threat and a solid underneath threat, and in time he could become a very good red zone threat. Early in his career, pretty much all of his TD's came in the red zone on fade type routes. This year the Vikes have been going more to Shiancoe (sp?) or Harvin, or doing the obvious and running with AP, as is evidenced by Rice having only 2 TDs. But many of his deep balls were caught very close to the end zone. Add 3 or 4 TD's to this numbers right now, and he's a flat out stud.On top of all this, he is only 23 years old. That's right, 23 years old (and he was actually only 19 when he came into the league - didn't turn 20 until September of his rookie season). So, even if there are some semi-down years in the post-Favre era, he's too young and too good not to shine bright eventually. I would hold unless the offer was too good to pass up. He has long term stud written all over him, IMO.
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GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
Only in deep leagues. (I've watched every Browns game, including preseason.) Jennings is a downhill, violent runner (he initiates the contact) with what appears to be decent vision and hands. Limited speed, and he's not going to juke anyone out of their shoes. He belongs on a NFL roster, but he hasn't done anything special in limited action this year. He could be the "thunder" in a committee system, but as of now, that committee would be the Browns.
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SSOG
Moderator
Nope, just what you see in this thread.
That thought process will get you in trouble. You could have easily said this offseason "who is there to throw Rice the ball?", too. And then Favre showed up. And even then, as bad as Favre was over the last 8 games last year, questions still could have remained. In the end, don't rank players based on a bad situation, because situation is transitory and talent always rises to the top. If Favre is gone next year (which is no sure thing- he signed a 2 year deal), then there's always Rosenfels. And if not Rosenfels, maybe Jason Campbell. And if not Jason Campbell, maybe Kyle Orton. And if not Orton, maybe Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy or Jake Locker. Or maybe they trade for a Jay Cutler. Or maybe, maybe, maybe... the point is you don't know what's going to happen. If you like Rice's talent, hold him. If you don't, sell him.Personally, I really liked Rice coming out, and I tend to be high on WRs who I liked coming out once they start showing something. As a result, I'd definitely hold.
I stopped reading right here. At this point, if you can get anything for Clinton Portis, you run- don't walk- to hit accept.
DoubleG
Footballguy
F&L (and others who wish, of course), first off, this isn't a "rate my trade" post, but more of a "how do you account for injuries" question.
Dynasty Trade
TEAM A: Gave Anthony Gonzalez WR, Shonn Greene and Leon Washington
TEAM B: Gave Rashard Mendenhall and Correl Buckhalter
Notes relevant to the discussion (possibly)
Start 3 WR and 2 RB (no flex)
Team A has R. White, D. Jackson, M. Colston and M. Crabtree already at WR (giving up Gonzo was depth)
I realize in your rankings Gonzalez is ranked fairly low (37 currently) - but in September he was ranked as high as 22. Is the drop simply due to the injury (his ranking will come back up once healthy) - or do you see the injury, combined with him being 1 year older (and a season seeing Garcon/Collie play fairly well) hurting his long term value that much?
A similar question could be made in regards to L. Washington/Greene. Most beleive one of the two will be the starter in NY next season (or very soon after that given TJs age). Is the low ranking simply becuase that hasn't happened yet? (i.e. will the value of one or the other jump into the top 15 or so, when TJ is not resigned?)
Just curious on your thoughts. Oh - and I will let you know which team is mine later.
Dynasty Trade
TEAM A: Gave Anthony Gonzalez WR, Shonn Greene and Leon Washington
TEAM B: Gave Rashard Mendenhall and Correl Buckhalter
Notes relevant to the discussion (possibly)
Start 3 WR and 2 RB (no flex)
Team A has R. White, D. Jackson, M. Colston and M. Crabtree already at WR (giving up Gonzo was depth)
I realize in your rankings Gonzalez is ranked fairly low (37 currently) - but in September he was ranked as high as 22. Is the drop simply due to the injury (his ranking will come back up once healthy) - or do you see the injury, combined with him being 1 year older (and a season seeing Garcon/Collie play fairly well) hurting his long term value that much?
A similar question could be made in regards to L. Washington/Greene. Most beleive one of the two will be the starter in NY next season (or very soon after that given TJs age). Is the low ranking simply becuase that hasn't happened yet? (i.e. will the value of one or the other jump into the top 15 or so, when TJ is not resigned?)
Just curious on your thoughts. Oh - and I will let you know which team is mine later.
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This thread hasn't been short on Chris Johnson love, but it's time to pile on some more. Cutting to the chase, I think it's time to move Chris Johnson to RB1. Being a starry-eyed CJ owner myself, I will admit to some bias. However, he's the #1 RB this year (non-PPR) and I do not think that is just him riding a good wave of variance. After seeing more and more of what he can do, and how the Titans use him, I think RB1 for this season is very near his expected value if we could replay the season a million times. Going even further, I think his upside is such that he could actually be better than what he is this year. I think he's the #1 RB this year, and could improve next. I don't see anyone else in the league with upside similar to his.
If the Vikings and Titans did a 1 for 1 deal and traded AP for CJ, what do you guys see happening to their numbers? I see AP's going down, and CJ's going up. If Tennesse and Jacksonville made the same trade, I don't see MJD coming out ahead of CJ there either. I know there are problems with this method, but I still find it an interesting thought experiment.
I can now honestly say I could auto-reject any MJD for CJ offer, and if someone proposed me Purple Jesus for CJ, there would be a pause while I marveled that I was hitting the reject button, then I'd hit it.
tl;dr: I want to have Chris Johnson's children.
If the Vikings and Titans did a 1 for 1 deal and traded AP for CJ, what do you guys see happening to their numbers? I see AP's going down, and CJ's going up. If Tennesse and Jacksonville made the same trade, I don't see MJD coming out ahead of CJ there either. I know there are problems with this method, but I still find it an interesting thought experiment.
I can now honestly say I could auto-reject any MJD for CJ offer, and if someone proposed me Purple Jesus for CJ, there would be a pause while I marveled that I was hitting the reject button, then I'd hit it.
tl;dr: I want to have Chris Johnson's children.
