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Fear & Loathing

Dynasty Rankings

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F&L (and others who wish, of course), first off, this isn't a "rate my trade" post, but more of a "how do you account for injuries" question.

Dynasty Trade

TEAM A: Gave Anthony Gonzalez WR, Shonn Greene and Leon Washington

TEAM B: Gave Rashard Mendenhall and Correl Buckhalter

Notes relevant to the discussion (possibly)

Start 3 WR and 2 RB (no flex)

Team A has R. White, D. Jackson, M. Colston and M. Crabtree already at WR (giving up Gonzo was depth)

I realize in your rankings Gonzalez is ranked fairly low (37 currently) - but in September he was ranked as high as 22. Is the drop simply due to the injury (his ranking will come back up once healthy) - or do you see the injury, combined with him being 1 year older (and a season seeing Garcon/Collie play fairly well) hurting his long term value that much?

A similar question could be made in regards to L. Washington/Greene. Most beleive one of the two will be the starter in NY next season (or very soon after that given TJs age). Is the low ranking simply becuase that hasn't happened yet? (i.e. will the value of one or the other jump into the top 15 or so, when TJ is not resigned?)

Just curious on your thoughts. Oh - and I will let you know which team is mine later. :sadbanana:

Edited by DoubleG

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This thread hasn't been short on Chris Johnson love, but it's time to pile on some more. Cutting to the chase, I think it's time to move Chris Johnson to RB1. Being a starry-eyed CJ owner myself, I will admit to some bias. However, he's the #1 RB this year (non-PPR) and I do not think that is just him riding a good wave of variance. After seeing more and more of what he can do, and how the Titans use him, I think RB1 for this season is very near his expected value if we could replay the season a million times. Going even further, I think his upside is such that he could actually be better than what he is this year. I think he's the #1 RB this year, and could improve next. I don't see anyone else in the league with upside similar to his.

If the Vikings and Titans did a 1 for 1 deal and traded AP for CJ, what do you guys see happening to their numbers? I see AP's going down, and CJ's going up. If Tennesse and Jacksonville made the same trade, I don't see MJD coming out ahead of CJ there either. I know there are problems with this method, but I still find it an interesting thought experiment.

I can now honestly say I could auto-reject any MJD for CJ offer, and if someone proposed me Purple Jesus for CJ, there would be a pause while I marveled that I was hitting the reject button, then I'd hit it.

tl;dr: I want to have Chris Johnson's children.

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Sidney Rice absolutely goes off again today. Obviously a lot of his success has to do with his relationship with Favre. But he seems to be doing everything well right now. After a slow start to his career due to injuries, Rice looks to be one of the best young WRs in the game.

The question that remains: Is his success a byproduct of his talent level? Or the excellent play of Favre?

Thoughts?

This is a big question mark to me as well. I was hoping to see strides this year out of Rice assuming that he'd finally be healthy and figured Favre could help as well. Needless to say he has exceeded my expectations so far this year. For some reason though he is one of those guys I can't help but think 'sell high' on. Can't quite articulate what has me thinking that, but I clearly need to watch more Vikings games in the coming weeks.

Love to hear the thoughts of others in this thread who have watched his play this year.

I'm in this camp also. My thought process on it is that when Favre is gone from the Vikings, who is there to throw Rice the ball?
He might drop off initially when Favre leaves town, but what is unquestionable right now is that the kid has loads of talent - he can flat out play. He has a good combination of size, speed, body control, and ball skills that make him both a great deep threat and a solid underneath threat, and in time he could become a very good red zone threat. Early in his career, pretty much all of his TD's came in the red zone on fade type routes. This year the Vikes have been going more to Shiancoe (sp?) or Harvin, or doing the obvious and running with AP, as is evidenced by Rice having only 2 TDs. But many of his deep balls were caught very close to the end zone. Add 3 or 4 TD's to this numbers right now, and he's a flat out stud.

On top of all this, he is only 23 years old. That's right, 23 years old (and he was actually only 19 when he came into the league - didn't turn 20 until September of his rookie season). So, even if there are some semi-down years in the post-Favre era, he's too young and too good not to shine bright eventually. I would hold unless the offer was too good to pass up. He has long term stud written all over him, IMO.

I agreed to trade him and my 1st round pick in a dynasty ( prior to his 200 yard outburst) for Roddy White. One of the reasons I did this was due to also owning Percy, and not feeling comfortable with two wr from the same team. I'm curious as to how other dynasty owners view the 2 wr situation: something to avoid, something to look for, or does it make a difference?

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Sidney Rice absolutely goes off again today. Obviously a lot of his success has to do with his relationship with Favre. But he seems to be doing everything well right now. After a slow start to his career due to injuries, Rice looks to be one of the best young WRs in the game.

The question that remains: Is his success a byproduct of his talent level? Or the excellent play of Favre?

Thoughts?

This is a big question mark to me as well. I was hoping to see strides this year out of Rice assuming that he'd finally be healthy and figured Favre could help as well. Needless to say he has exceeded my expectations so far this year. For some reason though he is one of those guys I can't help but think 'sell high' on. Can't quite articulate what has me thinking that, but I clearly need to watch more Vikings games in the coming weeks.

Love to hear the thoughts of others in this thread who have watched his play this year.

I'm in this camp also. My thought process on it is that when Favre is gone from the Vikings, who is there to throw Rice the ball?
He might drop off initially when Favre leaves town, but what is unquestionable right now is that the kid has loads of talent - he can flat out play. He has a good combination of size, speed, body control, and ball skills that make him both a great deep threat and a solid underneath threat, and in time he could become a very good red zone threat. Early in his career, pretty much all of his TD's came in the red zone on fade type routes. This year the Vikes have been going more to Shiancoe (sp?) or Harvin, or doing the obvious and running with AP, as is evidenced by Rice having only 2 TDs. But many of his deep balls were caught very close to the end zone. Add 3 or 4 TD's to this numbers right now, and he's a flat out stud.

On top of all this, he is only 23 years old. That's right, 23 years old (and he was actually only 19 when he came into the league - didn't turn 20 until September of his rookie season). So, even if there are some semi-down years in the post-Favre era, he's too young and too good not to shine bright eventually. I would hold unless the offer was too good to pass up. He has long term stud written all over him, IMO.

I agreed to trade him and my 1st round pick in a dynasty ( prior to his 200 yard outburst) for Roddy White. One of the reasons I did this was due to also owning Percy, and not feeling comfortable with two wr from the same team. I'm curious as to how other dynasty owners view the 2 wr situation: something to avoid, something to look for, or does it make a difference?
Having 2 WRs on the same NFL team in your starting lineup increases variance. Not as much as having a QB/WR combo, but it still does increase it. So, if you have an above-average team, you'd want to avoid it. If you have a below average team, you'd want to court that sort of thing. Thta being said, I don't think it makes enough of a difference to worry about. Maybe as a tie-breaker in a close deal, but it really doesn't have much effect.

Of course, if one WR is a stud, and the other is just some random prospect that won't start for you for some time, then it's nearly entirely immaterial.

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F&L (and others who wish, of course), first off, this isn't a "rate my trade" post, but more of a "how do you account for injuries" question.Dynasty TradeTEAM A: Gave Anthony Gonzalez WR, Shonn Greene and Leon WashingtonTEAM B: Gave Rashard Mendenhall and Correl BuckhalterNotes relevant to the discussion (possibly)Start 3 WR and 2 RB (no flex)Team A has R. White, D. Jackson, M. Colston and M. Crabtree already at WR (giving up Gonzo was depth)I realize in your rankings Gonzalez is ranked fairly low (37 currently) - but in September he was ranked as high as 22. Is the drop simply due to the injury (his ranking will come back up once healthy) - or do you see the injury, combined with him being 1 year older (and a season seeing Garcon/Collie play fairly well) hurting his long term value that much?A similar question could be made in regards to L. Washington/Greene. Most beleive one of the two will be the starter in NY next season (or very soon after that given TJs age). Is the low ranking simply becuase that hasn't happened yet? (i.e. will the value of one or the other jump into the top 15 or so, when TJ is not resigned?)Just curious on your thoughts. Oh - and I will let you know which team is mine later. :goodposting:

In my rankings, Gonzo's drop is a result of him going from "unquestioned #2 in Indy" to "questioned #2 in Indy". I have Shonn Greene low because I don't think he's a special talent, and I have Washington low because I think he's Jerious Norwood North. I'm not thinking short term (i.e. "he's not a starter yet..."), because I have Stewart ranked very high and he's not a starter yet, either (and I drafted MJD in the 2nd round of my startup years before he became a starter).

This thread hasn't been short on Chris Johnson love, but it's time to pile on some more. Cutting to the chase, I think it's time to move Chris Johnson to RB1. Being a starry-eyed CJ owner myself, I will admit to some bias. However, he's the #1 RB this year (non-PPR) and I do not think that is just him riding a good wave of variance. After seeing more and more of what he can do, and how the Titans use him, I think RB1 for this season is very near his expected value if we could replay the season a million times. Going even further, I think his upside is such that he could actually be better than what he is this year. I think he's the #1 RB this year, and could improve next. I don't see anyone else in the league with upside similar to his.If the Vikings and Titans did a 1 for 1 deal and traded AP for CJ, what do you guys see happening to their numbers? I see AP's going down, and CJ's going up. If Tennesse and Jacksonville made the same trade, I don't see MJD coming out ahead of CJ there either. I know there are problems with this method, but I still find it an interesting thought experiment. I can now honestly say I could auto-reject any MJD for CJ offer, and if someone proposed me Purple Jesus for CJ, there would be a pause while I marveled that I was hitting the reject button, then I'd hit it. tl;dr: I want to have Chris Johnson's children.

I get the love, but I think this is crazy talk. Johnson, MJD, and ADP are RB1, 2, and 3 respectively in points to date, it's true... but what about Chris Johnson's level of production screams "sustainable" to you? Right now, Chris Johnson is one of four RBs since 1960 to post 6+ ypc with 150+ carries (the others are Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, and OJ Simpson). Which is all well and good, but each of those guys saw their YPC return to more normal levels throughout the rest of their career (Simpson had a 4.7 career ypc, Sanders had a 5.0 career ypc, Brown had a 5.2 career ypc). If Chris Johnson was averaging a merely awesome 5.5 ypc, he'd have 160 fewer yards and would rank behind both MJD and Peterson. Chris Johnson has been unbelievable so far, but this is not sustainable.As for MJD and ADP... their production is totally sustainable. They're just doing what they've always done. They're both averaging 5.1 ypc, which is right in line with their career averages, and also a sustainable rate for a stud RB. MJD is scoring boatloads of TDs, but there's nothing new there- he's averaging a TD for every 14 carries, but his career average is a TD for every 15 carries. Both MJD and Peterson are pretty much carrying on business as usual, and yet they're still essentially right on the heels of Chris Johnson in the midst of a career year.From a skillset standpoint, too, Chris Johnson doesn't have the tools to compete with ADP or MJD. Both of those backs are better all-around runners, and especially better in short yardage and at the goal line. The fact that he's currently having the best boom/bust season of any boom/bust RB in NFL history doesn't change the fact that CJ is still a boom/bust RB and will never be the TD threat that those two are. I'd take either of those backs above CJ from an NFL standpoint- and I'd add Steven Jackson to that list, too.

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Hey F&L. I was wondering about a dynasty trade that i was offered. I posted in assistant coach, but i didnt get feedback. I enjoy looking over the dynasty blog, I am in a 20 team dynasty with IDP..The trade sent to me was. My Clinton Portis...

I stopped reading right here. At this point, if you can get anything for Clinton Portis, you run- don't walk- to hit accept.
I traded Portis today for Willis McGahee, made sense in the short-term since I have Ray Rice, plus I'm taking a flier on the outside chance that McGahee lands a starting job somewhere else next year.Speaking of which, assuming McGahee is cut in the offseason, what are the odds of him landing a starting job next year, or at least the heavy share of a RBBC? Edited by Ted Lange as your Bartender

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This thread hasn't been short on Chris Johnson love, but it's time to pile on some more. Cutting to the chase, I think it's time to move Chris Johnson to RB1. Being a starry-eyed CJ owner myself, I will admit to some bias. However, he's the #1 RB this year (non-PPR) and I do not think that is just him riding a good wave of variance. After seeing more and more of what he can do, and how the Titans use him, I think RB1 for this season is very near his expected value if we could replay the season a million times. Going even further, I think his upside is such that he could actually be better than what he is this year. I think he's the #1 RB this year, and could improve next. I don't see anyone else in the league with upside similar to his.

If the Vikings and Titans did a 1 for 1 deal and traded AP for CJ, what do you guys see happening to their numbers? I see AP's going down, and CJ's going up. If Tennesse and Jacksonville made the same trade, I don't see MJD coming out ahead of CJ there either. I know there are problems with this method, but I still find it an interesting thought experiment.

I can now honestly say I could auto-reject any MJD for CJ offer, and if someone proposed me Purple Jesus for CJ, there would be a pause while I marveled that I was hitting the reject button, then I'd hit it.

tl;dr: I want to have Chris Johnson's children.

This seems to me like the Barry Sanders v Emmitt Smith argument all over again :ptts:

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Sidney Rice absolutely goes off again today. Obviously a lot of his success has to do with his relationship with Favre. But he seems to be doing everything well right now. After a slow start to his career due to injuries, Rice looks to be one of the best young WRs in the game.

The question that remains: Is his success a byproduct of his talent level? Or the excellent play of Favre?

Thoughts?

This is a big question mark to me as well. I was hoping to see strides this year out of Rice assuming that he'd finally be healthy and figured Favre could help as well. Needless to say he has exceeded my expectations so far this year. For some reason though he is one of those guys I can't help but think 'sell high' on. Can't quite articulate what has me thinking that, but I clearly need to watch more Vikings games in the coming weeks.

Love to hear the thoughts of others in this thread who have watched his play this year.

I'm in this camp also. My thought process on it is that when Favre is gone from the Vikings, who is there to throw Rice the ball?
He might drop off initially when Favre leaves town, but what is unquestionable right now is that the kid has loads of talent - he can flat out play. He has a good combination of size, speed, body control, and ball skills that make him both a great deep threat and a solid underneath threat, and in time he could become a very good red zone threat. Early in his career, pretty much all of his TD's came in the red zone on fade type routes. This year the Vikes have been going more to Shiancoe (sp?) or Harvin, or doing the obvious and running with AP, as is evidenced by Rice having only 2 TDs. But many of his deep balls were caught very close to the end zone. Add 3 or 4 TD's to this numbers right now, and he's a flat out stud.

On top of all this, he is only 23 years old. That's right, 23 years old (and he was actually only 19 when he came into the league - didn't turn 20 until September of his rookie season). So, even if there are some semi-down years in the post-Favre era, he's too young and too good not to shine bright eventually. I would hold unless the offer was too good to pass up. He has long term stud written all over him, IMO.

I agreed to trade him and my 1st round pick in a dynasty ( prior to his 200 yard outburst) for Roddy White. One of the reasons I did this was due to also owning Percy, and not feeling comfortable with two wr from the same team. I'm curious as to how other dynasty owners view the 2 wr situation: something to avoid, something to look for, or does it make a difference?
You want to score the most points you can. It doesn't matter how you get those points. :P

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F&L (and others who wish, of course), first off, this isn't a "rate my trade" post, but more of a "how do you account for injuries" question.Dynasty TradeTEAM A: Gave Anthony Gonzalez WR, Shonn Greene and Leon WashingtonTEAM B: Gave Rashard Mendenhall and Correl BuckhalterNotes relevant to the discussion (possibly)Start 3 WR and 2 RB (no flex)Team A has R. White, D. Jackson, M. Colston and M. Crabtree already at WR (giving up Gonzo was depth)I realize in your rankings Gonzalez is ranked fairly low (37 currently) - but in September he was ranked as high as 22. Is the drop simply due to the injury (his ranking will come back up once healthy) - or do you see the injury, combined with him being 1 year older (and a season seeing Garcon/Collie play fairly well) hurting his long term value that much?A similar question could be made in regards to L. Washington/Greene. Most beleive one of the two will be the starter in NY next season (or very soon after that given TJs age). Is the low ranking simply becuase that hasn't happened yet? (i.e. will the value of one or the other jump into the top 15 or so, when TJ is not resigned?)Just curious on your thoughts. Oh - and I will let you know which team is mine later. :P

In my rankings, Gonzo's drop is a result of him going from "unquestioned #2 in Indy" to "questioned #2 in Indy". I have Shonn Greene low because I don't think he's a special talent, and I have Washington low because I think he's Jerious Norwood North. I'm not thinking short term (i.e. "he's not a starter yet..."), because I have Stewart ranked very high and he's not a starter yet, either (and I drafted MJD in the 2nd round of my startup years before he became a starter).

This thread hasn't been short on Chris Johnson love, but it's time to pile on some more. Cutting to the chase, I think it's time to move Chris Johnson to RB1. Being a starry-eyed CJ owner myself, I will admit to some bias. However, he's the #1 RB this year (non-PPR) and I do not think that is just him riding a good wave of variance. After seeing more and more of what he can do, and how the Titans use him, I think RB1 for this season is very near his expected value if we could replay the season a million times. Going even further, I think his upside is such that he could actually be better than what he is this year. I think he's the #1 RB this year, and could improve next. I don't see anyone else in the league with upside similar to his.If the Vikings and Titans did a 1 for 1 deal and traded AP for CJ, what do you guys see happening to their numbers? I see AP's going down, and CJ's going up. If Tennesse and Jacksonville made the same trade, I don't see MJD coming out ahead of CJ there either. I know there are problems with this method, but I still find it an interesting thought experiment. I can now honestly say I could auto-reject any MJD for CJ offer, and if someone proposed me Purple Jesus for CJ, there would be a pause while I marveled that I was hitting the reject button, then I'd hit it. tl;dr: I want to have Chris Johnson's children.

I get the love, but I think this is crazy talk. Johnson, MJD, and ADP are RB1, 2, and 3 respectively in points to date, it's true... but what about Chris Johnson's level of production screams "sustainable" to you? Right now, Chris Johnson is one of four RBs since 1960 to post 6+ ypc with 150+ carries (the others are Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, and OJ Simpson). Which is all well and good, but each of those guys saw their YPC return to more normal levels throughout the rest of their career (Simpson had a 4.7 career ypc, Sanders had a 5.0 career ypc, Brown had a 5.2 career ypc). If Chris Johnson was averaging a merely awesome 5.5 ypc, he'd have 160 fewer yards and would rank behind both MJD and Peterson. Chris Johnson has been unbelievable so far, but this is not sustainable.As for MJD and ADP... their production is totally sustainable. They're just doing what they've always done. They're both averaging 5.1 ypc, which is right in line with their career averages, and also a sustainable rate for a stud RB. MJD is scoring boatloads of TDs, but there's nothing new there- he's averaging a TD for every 14 carries, but his career average is a TD for every 15 carries. Both MJD and Peterson are pretty much carrying on business as usual, and yet they're still essentially right on the heels of Chris Johnson in the midst of a career year.From a skillset standpoint, too, Chris Johnson doesn't have the tools to compete with ADP or MJD. Both of those backs are better all-around runners, and especially better in short yardage and at the goal line. The fact that he's currently having the best boom/bust season of any boom/bust RB in NFL history doesn't change the fact that CJ is still a boom/bust RB and will never be the TD threat that those two are. I'd take either of those backs above CJ from an NFL standpoint- and I'd add Steven Jackson to that list, too.
Want to hear F&L weigh in here...

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didn't think i'd ever consider trading michael turner, but ... i am mulling offering him to the vjax owner for vjax and crabtree. mulling.

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In a Standard Scoring non PPR what is the potential long term value of Bernard Scott in relation to Steve Breaston as stash and hope prospects? With Tate going on IR I have a spot on my 19 man roster (shown in my Signature).

I have liked Scott as a prospect since the draft but with limited roster space I haven't been able to add him. How does Breaston figure in the AZ mix along with Doucet if Boldin leaves?

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didn't think i'd ever consider trading michael turner, but ... i am mulling offering him to the vjax owner for vjax and crabtree. mulling.

:thumbup: How big of you.

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didn't think i'd ever consider trading michael turner, but ... i am mulling offering him to the vjax owner for vjax and crabtree. mulling.

take the money and run

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didn't think i'd ever consider trading michael turner, but ... i am mulling offering him to the vjax owner for vjax and crabtree. mulling.

:bag: How big of you.
i really don't think it is as lopsided as you do.

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didn't think i'd ever consider trading michael turner, but ... i am mulling offering him to the vjax owner for vjax and crabtree. mulling.

:lmao: How big of you.
i really don't think it is as lopsided as you do.
it is completely and totally one sided....beyond lopsided.unless of course there is some crazy scoring that your not sharing

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didn't think i'd ever consider trading michael turner, but ... i am mulling offering him to the vjax owner for vjax and crabtree. mulling.

:lmao: How big of you.
i really don't think it is as lopsided as you do.
Then you might want to rethink he situation. I realize he doesn't have much "tread on the tires" but Turner's already 27 and he now has a leg injury. VJax is a top 3 dynasty WR - who is starting to come into his own. He'a year younger than Turner and WR's don't drop off at 30 like RBs tend to. Granted, some of it may depend on your current roster, scoring, starting requirements, etc. but many would suggest that Turner for VJax straight up would be a decent trade for the person getting VJax - but you're also getting the #1 rookie WR in terms of talent as well - one who some think could be a top fantasy WR in his own right and very soon.

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Then you might want to rethink he situation. I realize he doesn't have much "tread on the tires" but Turner's already 27 and he now has a leg injury. VJax is a top 3 dynasty WR - who is starting to come into his own. He'a year younger than Turner and WR's don't drop off at 30 like RBs tend to. Granted, some of it may depend on your current roster, scoring, starting requirements, etc. but many would suggest that Turner for VJax straight up would be a decent trade for the person getting VJax - but you're also getting the #1 rookie WR in terms of talent as well - one who some think could be a top fantasy WR in his own right and very soon.

:lmao: I wouldn't dream of trading VJax for Turner straight up. Not a chance in hell. Even if Turner was 100% healthy, I wouldn't touch that with a ten-foot pole.Here's what I said about him on October 19th:#1- I made this one already, but I'm reiterating it for emphasis. Michael Turner is not a top-10 dynasty RB. He impressed me far more as a backup to LT than he did as a workhorse for Atlanta. He's a solid back, but he's not as special as I thought he was. So far this year, he's really been struggling- his ypc had dropped from 4.5 to 3.7 coming into this week, and it'll be even lower now. His performance so far this year has actually been propped up thanks to all those TDs (he was the #3 RB in points per game in standard FBGs scoring coming into this week), so others might not have caught on yet. I think it's a great time to see what you can get for him and move on without him. Especially because, not only is he not as good as I thought he was, he's also a lot older than you might think. Of F&L's top 20 RBs, only six are even within TWO YEARS of Turner (Jacobs, Ronnie, DeAngelo, Gore, Barber, and SJax), and Turner is older than all of them except for Brown. He's still 3 years away from the dreaded 3-0, but his perceived value is going to start falling QUICKLY (in two years, no one will want him because he's just a year away from 30). I have no trouble holding an RB while his value drops if he's getting me Ronnie-like production, but I don't think Turner is going to do that anymore going forward.

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didn't think i'd ever consider trading michael turner, but ... i am mulling offering him to the vjax owner for vjax and crabtree. mulling.

:) How big of you.
i really don't think it is as lopsided as you do.
I'd take VJax / Crabtree over Turner 10 days out of 10

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PPR, Crabtree and Turner aren't THAT far off for dynasty leagues. [Especially this time of year in dynasty leagues when teams are looking to rebuild/reload] Note: I think Turner's still got a couple more quality years, but you could very well profit off the downfall of others.

With LT/Westbrook/Portis dropping like flies, people are going to start unloading RB's earlier and earlier.

:)

Edited by D'OHtis

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obviously i like crabtree or i wouldn't have brought him up, but i seem to recall a lot of discussion here and on other boards of peoiple who DON'T like him.

turner is still better than jackson and will be this year (if healthy) and next year. making this trade could actually cost me the title this year (total points).

i'd also be down to pierre thomas, AP and CJ as my RBs.

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The ones that didn't like him were going based off how he'd translate from college/holdout/etc... Seemless transition to the pros. He'll be a Top 15 WR for the next decade in PPR leagues.

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I know there's a lot of love for young WR's in dynasty, and VJax looks terrific, but the short selling of a workhorse like Turner is kind of surprising. Crabtree for Turner?

Isn't this also the thread where it is stressed that looking out beyond 3yrs in dynasty is a mistake. Turner is not a spring chicken, but he is only 27 with up to this point low miles.

He was #1 in RB scoring last year in my league, and #8 this year. Who are you going to start at RB if he is traded, most teams aren't 3 or 4 starting RB deep.

Look at the top 30 RB's this year, likely that all of them were rostered in most leagues to start the year. You either have RB's or you don't.

Look at the top 30 WR's this year, a number of which were waiver wire fodder or cheap trades in moderately deep leagues. Sims-Walker, Austin, Rice, Steve Smith, Manningham, Burlson, Collie. Or older WR's that can be had for a song in dynasty such as Mason or Driver.

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Here's what I said about him on October 19th:

#1- I made this one already, but I'm reiterating it for emphasis. Michael Turner is not a top-10 dynasty RB. He impressed me far more as a backup to LT than he did as a workhorse for Atlanta. He's a solid back, but he's not as special as I thought he was. So far this year, he's really been struggling- his ypc had dropped from 4.5 to 3.7 coming into this week, and it'll be even lower now. His performance so far this year has actually been propped up thanks to all those TDs (he was the #3 RB in points per game in standard FBGs scoring coming into this week), so others might not have caught on yet. I think it's a great time to see what you can get for him and move on without him. Especially because, not only is he not as good as I thought he was, he's also a lot older than you might think. Of F&L's top 20 RBs, only six are even within TWO YEARS of Turner (Jacobs, Ronnie, DeAngelo, Gore, Barber, and SJax), and Turner is older than all of them except for Brown. He's still 3 years away from the dreaded 3-0, but his perceived value is going to start falling QUICKLY (in two years, no one will want him because he's just a year away from 30). I have no trouble holding an RB while his value drops if he's getting me Ronnie-like production, but I don't think Turner is going to do that anymore going forward.

Let's update this: Michael Turner is averaging 5.0 yards per carry in 2009, which is half a yard more than his 2008 season that saw him finish No. 2 in fantasy points.

To reiterate, he's not my kind of Dynasty asset considering his age and lack of involvement in the passing game. I still think you're selling him short.

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Here's what I said about him on October 19th:

#1- I made this one already, but I'm reiterating it for emphasis. Michael Turner is not a top-10 dynasty RB. He impressed me far more as a backup to LT than he did as a workhorse for Atlanta. He's a solid back, but he's not as special as I thought he was. So far this year, he's really been struggling- his ypc had dropped from 4.5 to 3.7 coming into this week, and it'll be even lower now. His performance so far this year has actually been propped up thanks to all those TDs (he was the #3 RB in points per game in standard FBGs scoring coming into this week), so others might not have caught on yet. I think it's a great time to see what you can get for him and move on without him. Especially because, not only is he not as good as I thought he was, he's also a lot older than you might think. Of F&L's top 20 RBs, only six are even within TWO YEARS of Turner (Jacobs, Ronnie, DeAngelo, Gore, Barber, and SJax), and Turner is older than all of them except for Brown. He's still 3 years away from the dreaded 3-0, but his perceived value is going to start falling QUICKLY (in two years, no one will want him because he's just a year away from 30). I have no trouble holding an RB while his value drops if he's getting me Ronnie-like production, but I don't think Turner is going to do that anymore going forward.

Let's update this: Michael Turner is averaging 5.0 yards per carry in 2009, which is half a yard more than his 2008 season that saw him finish No. 2 in fantasy points.

To reiterate, he's not my kind of Dynasty asset considering his age and lack of involvement in the passing game. I still think you're selling him short.

yes, but am i selling him short for vjax and crab?

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Here's what I said about him on October 19th:

#1- I made this one already, but I'm reiterating it for emphasis. Michael Turner is not a top-10 dynasty RB. He impressed me far more as a backup to LT than he did as a workhorse for Atlanta. He's a solid back, but he's not as special as I thought he was. So far this year, he's really been struggling- his ypc had dropped from 4.5 to 3.7 coming into this week, and it'll be even lower now. His performance so far this year has actually been propped up thanks to all those TDs (he was the #3 RB in points per game in standard FBGs scoring coming into this week), so others might not have caught on yet. I think it's a great time to see what you can get for him and move on without him. Especially because, not only is he not as good as I thought he was, he's also a lot older than you might think. Of F&L's top 20 RBs, only six are even within TWO YEARS of Turner (Jacobs, Ronnie, DeAngelo, Gore, Barber, and SJax), and Turner is older than all of them except for Brown. He's still 3 years away from the dreaded 3-0, but his perceived value is going to start falling QUICKLY (in two years, no one will want him because he's just a year away from 30). I have no trouble holding an RB while his value drops if he's getting me Ronnie-like production, but I don't think Turner is going to do that anymore going forward.

Let's update this: Michael Turner is averaging 5.0 yards per carry in 2009, which is half a yard more than his 2008 season that saw him finish No. 2 in fantasy points.

To reiterate, he's not my kind of Dynasty asset considering his age and lack of involvement in the passing game. I still think you're selling him short.

Agreed. He's selling him a lot short. Turner is a very special runner.

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F&L (and others who wish, of course), first off, this isn't a "rate my trade" post, but more of a "how do you account for injuries" question.

Dynasty Trade

TEAM A: Gave Anthony Gonzalez WR, Shonn Greene and Leon Washington

TEAM B: Gave Rashard Mendenhall and Correl Buckhalter

Notes relevant to the discussion (possibly)

Start 3 WR and 2 RB (no flex)

Team A has R. White, D. Jackson, M. Colston and M. Crabtree already at WR (giving up Gonzo was depth)

I realize in your rankings Gonzalez is ranked fairly low (37 currently) - but in September he was ranked as high as 22. Is the drop simply due to the injury (his ranking will come back up once healthy) - or do you see the injury, combined with him being 1 year older (and a season seeing Garcon/Collie play fairly well) hurting his long term value that much?

A similar question could be made in regards to L. Washington/Greene. Most beleive one of the two will be the starter in NY next season (or very soon after that given TJs age). Is the low ranking simply becuase that hasn't happened yet? (i.e. will the value of one or the other jump into the top 15 or so, when TJ is not resigned?)

Just curious on your thoughts. Oh - and I will let you know which team is mine later. :lmao:

In my rankings, Gonzo's drop is a result of him going from "unquestioned #2 in Indy" to "questioned #2 in Indy". I have Shonn Greene low because I don't think he's a special talent, and I have Washington low because I think he's Jerious Norwood North. I'm not thinking short term (i.e. "he's not a starter yet..."), because I have Stewart ranked very high and he's not a starter yet, either (and I drafted MJD in the 2nd round of my startup years before he became a starter).

This thread hasn't been short on Chris Johnson love, but it's time to pile on some more. Cutting to the chase, I think it's time to move Chris Johnson to RB1. Being a starry-eyed CJ owner myself, I will admit to some bias. However, he's the #1 RB this year (non-PPR) and I do not think that is just him riding a good wave of variance. After seeing more and more of what he can do, and how the Titans use him, I think RB1 for this season is very near his expected value if we could replay the season a million times. Going even further, I think his upside is such that he could actually be better than what he is this year. I think he's the #1 RB this year, and could improve next. I don't see anyone else in the league with upside similar to his.

If the Vikings and Titans did a 1 for 1 deal and traded AP for CJ, what do you guys see happening to their numbers? I see AP's going down, and CJ's going up. If Tennesse and Jacksonville made the same trade, I don't see MJD coming out ahead of CJ there either. I know there are problems with this method, but I still find it an interesting thought experiment.

I can now honestly say I could auto-reject any MJD for CJ offer, and if someone proposed me Purple Jesus for CJ, there would be a pause while I marveled that I was hitting the reject button, then I'd hit it.

tl;dr: I want to have Chris Johnson's children.

I get the love, but I think this is crazy talk. Johnson, MJD, and ADP are RB1, 2, and 3 respectively in points to date, it's true... but what about Chris Johnson's level of production screams "sustainable" to you? Right now, Chris Johnson is one of four RBs since 1960 to post 6+ ypc with 150+ carries (the others are Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, and OJ Simpson). Which is all well and good, but each of those guys saw their YPC return to more normal levels throughout the rest of their career (Simpson had a 4.7 career ypc, Sanders had a 5.0 career ypc, Brown had a 5.2 career ypc). If Chris Johnson was averaging a merely awesome 5.5 ypc, he'd have 160 fewer yards and would rank behind both MJD and Peterson. Chris Johnson has been unbelievable so far, but this is not sustainable.

As for MJD and ADP... their production is totally sustainable. They're just doing what they've always done. They're both averaging 5.1 ypc, which is right in line with their career averages, and also a sustainable rate for a stud RB. MJD is scoring boatloads of TDs, but there's nothing new there- he's averaging a TD for every 14 carries, but his career average is a TD for every 15 carries. Both MJD and Peterson are pretty much carrying on business as usual, and yet they're still essentially right on the heels of Chris Johnson in the midst of a career year.

From a skillset standpoint, too, Chris Johnson doesn't have the tools to compete with ADP or MJD. Both of those backs are better all-around runners, and especially better in short yardage and at the goal line. The fact that he's currently having the best boom/bust season of any boom/bust RB in NFL history doesn't change the fact that CJ is still a boom/bust RB and will never be the TD threat that those two are. I'd take either of those backs above CJ from an NFL standpoint- and I'd add Steven Jackson to that list, too.

I get that you don't like CJ over AP/MJD because you don't think he can sustain his current YPC (6.4 YTD). It's not so much that you think AP or MJD are underperforming right now, but rather you think CJ is overperforming. I do think he can continue to average ~20 fantasy points per game. I will concede that he could just be riding a nice wave of variance, but this could also easily be the result of everything really coming together for him. Obviously, coming into the league last year his body and physical tools were ready for the NFL game, but I am wondering if after seeing 20+ NFL games if things are really starting to slow down for him, and he is morphing into something truly amazing. Regardless, my root point isn't that he should be ranked ahead for this season (although Dodds and I both think he should be), but rather that I look at him, and wonder if he can keep getting better. What does he become if he can add a few more tricks to his repetoire? What does he become if Tenn goes from a normal 2.3 TD/game offense to a good 3.3 TD/game offense?

He's at least in the #1 discussion for this year. If he actually can improve, he manages to provide a competitive advantage over the AP owner in your league. He would provide a crushing advantage over the Frank Gore owner in your league. Maybe you disagree and see something approaching a 0% chance of that happening. If that's the case, then he absolutely should stay in the RB3-5 range. I'm starting to think it's nearing 50/50, and that is just a huge boon to a player's value. However, even if someone thinks there's only a 10-20% shot of it happening, depending on where you put him currently, I think you still need consider putting him in the #1 spot.

You can say AP/MJD are better short yardage and goaline backs. Maybe they do notch CJ there (although I'm not even convinced of that), but it is my opinion that CJ is the one that's a better all-around back. AP and MJD are both very special backs, they do everything extremely well, but I watch them play, and then I watch CJ play, and when I watch CJ play, I see a RB who is just amazing at what he does. He's like Barry Sanders in that he may share the "boom" of the boom/bust style, he doesn't share the "bust" of the random 4 yard losses.

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Here's what I said about him on October 19th:

#1- I made this one already, but I'm reiterating it for emphasis. Michael Turner is not a top-10 dynasty RB. He impressed me far more as a backup to LT than he did as a workhorse for Atlanta. He's a solid back, but he's not as special as I thought he was. So far this year, he's really been struggling- his ypc had dropped from 4.5 to 3.7 coming into this week, and it'll be even lower now. His performance so far this year has actually been propped up thanks to all those TDs (he was the #3 RB in points per game in standard FBGs scoring coming into this week), so others might not have caught on yet. I think it's a great time to see what you can get for him and move on without him. Especially because, not only is he not as good as I thought he was, he's also a lot older than you might think. Of F&L's top 20 RBs, only six are even within TWO YEARS of Turner (Jacobs, Ronnie, DeAngelo, Gore, Barber, and SJax), and Turner is older than all of them except for Brown. He's still 3 years away from the dreaded 3-0, but his perceived value is going to start falling QUICKLY (in two years, no one will want him because he's just a year away from 30). I have no trouble holding an RB while his value drops if he's getting me Ronnie-like production, but I don't think Turner is going to do that anymore going forward.

Let's update this: Michael Turner is averaging 5.0 yards per carry in 2009, which is half a yard more than his 2008 season that saw him finish No. 2 in fantasy points.

To reiterate, he's not my kind of Dynasty asset considering his age and lack of involvement in the passing game. I still think you're selling him short.

yes, but am i selling him short for vjax and crab?
Not at all. Unless you have a whacked out scoring system, take the offer and run.

What's with your objection that you'd be "left with" Peterson, Chris Johnson, and Pierre Thomas? That's gotta be the best trio in the league even if you're playing in a 6-man league.

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I've heard a few things about Legedu Naanee (SD - WR) so I decided to do some research. But, I'm looking for some more opinions...

Naanee has 19 Receptions on just 23 targets (83%) which is obscenely high. For comparisons sake, Malcom Floyd has 16 catches on 30 targets. Granted Floyd is averaging about twice as many yards-per-catch (deep threats will naturally have a lower rec%) but their yards-per-target is pretty even.

To get an idea of his skill set, in the 2007 NFL Draft Combine he ran a 4.41 40-yd dash (Maclin ran a 4.48, Harvin ran a 4.41 as well) , he had a 40-in vertical (Hakeem Nicks = 36 in), and he ran a 6.73 on the 3 cone drill (Johnny Knox = 6.80). Stick those attributes on a 6'3" 230 lb body and you have a physically dominant WR.

In short, Naanee is still fairly raw (started college as a QB...after the Chargers drafted him there was talk of turning him into an F-back) but his physical talent is incredible and he displays sticky hands.

Chambers' exit and Floyd's failure to impress as the starter opens the door for Naanee to step up and make an impact. Seems to me like his enormous upside is worth taking a flyer on in deeper leagues.

Thoughts?

Edited by sports_fan

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* A 26-year old VJax might be the closest thing we'll see to a 26-year old Randy Moss in terms of measurables and play style. Try as I might, Moss is really the only comp I can find for his all-around skillset. If he ever develops Moss's killer instinct, the rest of the NFL had better be afraid.

Huh????Moss recorded 40.....let me repeat 40 TDs combined in his rookie year (Age 21) and his 10th year (Age 30). That fact in itself leads me to say that Moss is the best WR ever to play the game, and I'm not dissing Jerry Rice. If I'm starting an NFL team, my first pick would be Moss as I can wait till my next selection to grab one of the great QBs, but Moss is the common denominator on the 2 highest scoring offenses in NFL history......simply opens up the offense greater than any single player in history, Welker should pay for Moss' vacation each year, as he's made this guy's career and enhanced Tom Terrific's profile as well. So I simply can't get with that comparison as Moss has much better speed and athleticism than V-Jax could ever dream of, and V-Jax is plenty talented, but quite simplyMoss (21-27 yrs old) >>>>>>>>>>>> V-Jax (now)and Moss (32 yrs old) >>>>>>>> V-Jax (now)Moss is The Ultimate Playmaker, nobody has done it better nor been more threatening to a defense from the WR positionThe closest that anyone may come to Moss is Calvin, and he has quite a ways to go......I'd say V-Jax is closer to Michael Irvin (or Herman Moore or Carl Pickens or Marcus Robinson) moreso than he is to Randy Moss in play style and ability Edited by kremenull

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Changing gears, does anyone have any thoughts on Early Doucet (WR- ARI) as a dynasty stash? I remember his name all the way back to his recruitment (was a top-20 national recruit, as I recall) then didn't hear or see much of him at LSU. He was a third round draft pick in 08, is in his second year, and just turned 24 years old. There's a good chance Boldin is gone this offseason, which would bump Breaston up to the #2 slot. Doucet seems to have passed Jerheme Urban as the current #4 in Arizona, making him the presumptive #3 for the Cards next season.

As Breaston has shown in 2008 and 09, there's a lot of value in the Cardinals #3 WR slot, at least as long as Warner is around. In short, Doucet seems to be in a pretty decent situation. What about his talent? He had pedestrian testing numbers in the leadup to the draft, and his NFL numbers certainly don't jump off the page at you (19 career rec, 129 yards, 6.8 avg, 0 TD). Does Doucet have talent-based upside to go with an intriguing dynasty situation?

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* A 26-year old VJax might be the closest thing we'll see to a 26-year old Randy Moss in terms of measurables and play style. Try as I might, Moss is really the only comp I can find for his all-around skillset. If he ever develops Moss's killer instinct, the rest of the NFL had better be afraid.

Huh????Moss recorded 40.....let me repeat 40 TDs combined in his rookie year (Age 21) and his 10th year (Age 30). That fact in itself leads me to say that Moss is the best WR ever to play the game, and I'm not dissing Jerry Rice. If I'm starting an NFL team, my first pick would be Moss as I can wait till my next selection to grab one of the great QBs, but Moss is the common denominator on the 2 highest scoring offenses in NFL history......simply opens up the offense greater than any single player in history, Welker should pay for Moss' vacation each year, as he's made this guy's career and enhanced Tom Terrific's profile as well. So I simply can't get with that comparison as Moss has much better speed and athleticism than V-Jax could ever dream of, and V-Jax is plenty talented, but quite simplyMoss (21-27 yrs old) >>>>>>>>>>>> V-Jax (now)and Moss (32 yrs old) >>>>>>>> V-Jax (now)Moss is The Ultimate Playmaker, nobody has done it better nor been more threatening to a defense from the WR positionThe closest that anyone may come to Moss is Calvin, and he has quite a ways to go......I'd say V-Jax is closer to Michael Irvin (or Herman Moore or Carl Pickens or Marcus Robinson) moreso than he is to Randy Moss in play style and ability
First off, I never said that Vincent Jackson was the closest thing we'd see to Randy Moss in ability. I also never said that he would produce at a Moss-like level for the rest of his career. I said he was the closest thing we'd see to Randy Moss in measurables (6'5", sub 4.4 forty) and playstyle (dominant both as a deep threat and as a red zone threat). I also never said that he was Randy Moss, I said that he might be the closest we'd see. In fact, Jackson's game is different from Moss's in the red zone in that Jackson is 25+ lbs. heavier and more able to outmuscle DBs, while Moss has that unmatched leaping ability. I was just saying really the only comparison for the wildly disparate areas that VJax has managed to excel in is Moss. Typically, WRs either excel in traffic, or they excel in space, but few have managed to put the two together like Vincent Jackson has so far this season.

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Let's update this: Michael Turner is averaging 5.0 yards per carry in 2009, which is half a yard more than his 2008 season that saw him finish No. 2 in fantasy points.

To reiterate, he's not my kind of Dynasty asset considering his age and lack of involvement in the passing game. I still think you're selling him short.

Maybe I am. I haven't caught many Falcons games (and none in the last three weeks since he's really started turning it on), but like I said, I wasn't as impressed with him last year in Atlanta as I was two years ago in San Diego.

I get that you don't like CJ over AP/MJD because you don't think he can sustain his current YPC (6.4 YTD). It's not so much that you think AP or MJD are underperforming right now, but rather you think CJ is overperforming. I do think he can continue to average ~20 fantasy points per game. I will concede that he could just be riding a nice wave of variance, but this could also easily be the result of everything really coming together for him. Obviously, coming into the league last year his body and physical tools were ready for the NFL game, but I am wondering if after seeing 20+ NFL games if things are really starting to slow down for him, and he is morphing into something truly amazing. Regardless, my root point isn't that he should be ranked ahead for this season (although Dodds and I both think he should be), but rather that I look at him, and wonder if he can keep getting better. What does he become if he can add a few more tricks to his repetoire? What does he become if Tenn goes from a normal 2.3 TD/game offense to a good 3.3 TD/game offense?

He's at least in the #1 discussion for this year. If he actually can improve, he manages to provide a competitive advantage over the AP owner in your league. He would provide a crushing advantage over the Frank Gore owner in your league. Maybe you disagree and see something approaching a 0% chance of that happening. If that's the case, then he absolutely should stay in the RB3-5 range. I'm starting to think it's nearing 50/50, and that is just a huge boon to a player's value. However, even if someone thinks there's only a 10-20% shot of it happening, depending on where you put him currently, I think you still need consider putting him in the #1 spot.

You can say AP/MJD are better short yardage and goaline backs. Maybe they do notch CJ there (although I'm not even convinced of that), but it is my opinion that CJ is the one that's a better all-around back. AP and MJD are both very special backs, they do everything extremely well, but I watch them play, and then I watch CJ play, and when I watch CJ play, I see a RB who is just amazing at what he does. He's like Barry Sanders in that he may share the "boom" of the boom/bust style, he doesn't share the "bust" of the random 4 yard losses.

I don't think he's built to handle 20+ carries a game. I don't think he's capable of handling short yardage duties. I don't think there's any chance in hell of him sustaining his current ypc rate. I just don't think there's anything sustainable about his current level of production.

Also, in response to the bolded, Chris Johnson has boatloads of the "bust" to go along with his "boom". If you look at his 26 carries this last week, Johnson had 4 carries for 104 yards, and 22 other carries for 28 yards, including the following carries:

2-9-TEN22 (14:20) C.Johnson right guard to TEN 21 for -1 yards (P.Posluszny).

1-10-BUF46 (5:41) C.Johnson right tackle to BUF 45 for 1 yard (J.McCargo).

1-10-BUF14 (1:33) C.Johnson left tackle to BUF 14 for no gain (G.Wilson, M.Stroud).

1-10-TEN36 (13:25) C.Johnson right end to TEN 38 for 2 yards (P.Posluszny).

1-10-TEN35 (6:48) C.Johnson right tackle to TEN 35 for no gain (B.Scott, R.Corner).

2-10-TEN35 (6:07) C.Johnson left tackle to TEN 35 for no gain (G.Wilson).

1-10-TEN45 (7:28) C.Johnson right guard to TEN 46 for 1 yard (M.Stroud).

2-10-TEN44 (:46) C.Johnson left end to TEN 46 for 2 yards (Sp.Johnson).

1-10-BUF13 (13:05) C.Johnson left tackle to BUF 13 for no gain (J.McCargo).

1-1-BUF1 (11:33) C.Johnson right tackle to BUF 1 for no gain (C.Kelsay).

3-6-BUF29 (3:31) (Shotgun) C.Johnson left end to BUF 33 for -4 yards (D.Florence). Penalty on TEN-B.Scaife, Offensive Holding, declined.

2-5-BUF40 (2:00) C.Johnson left end to BUF 46 for -6 yards (C.Draft).

3-11-BUF46 (1:51) C.Johnson up the middle to BUF 45 for 1 yard (Sp.Johnson).

That's half of his carries on the day, and they netted -4 total yards. This isn't an indictment of Chris Johnson. The boom is so completely and totally worth the bust. Doesn't mean the bust isn't still there.

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Looking for some stragedy tips. Our trade deadline is tomorrow and it has me wondering if i should shake some things up.

Im 8-2 and leading the league is FP and wins. Was 8-1 before last week but been saying all along my team isnt as good as the record states.

I drafted this team very young and made some bad deals along the way this season, but i still have a decent core for the future.

This is a PPR DYNASTY 12 teamer where we start 1QB 1RB 1WR 1TE 3FLEX 1K 1DEF. (3 flex means you could start 4 rb's if you wished)

Roster:

A.Rodgers, M.Cassell

M.Drew, DWill, J.Stewert, A.Bradshaw, Leon W, B.Scott, D.Ware, Ko.Smith, M.Goodson

S.Rice, M.Austin, H.Nicks, P.Harvin, M.Manningham, E.Royal, L.Coles, J.Morgan, C.Henry, L.Naanee

J.Casey, B.Pettigrew

Longwell, Akers

Def of the week.

I tried once making a deal to improve my TE situation and it blew up in my face sending D.Keller and a 1st for O.Daniles and 2nd type of deal only for OD to end up hurt and there was NOTHING at te on the ww so i traded OD back to the same team for Pettigrew after his decent game trying to get some stablenessat te.

Anyway, with this YOUNG team in ppr would you stay put and let the chips fall as they may or would you ship off a Harvin or Nicks type (since they seem to have the most trade value to land a very good player).

Thx for any insight fellas. Just this team is a big mystery to me.

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If the Vikings and Titans did a 1 for 1 deal and traded AP for CJ, what do you guys see happening to their numbers? I see AP's going down, and CJ's going up.

I see the complete opposite. People think Minnesota's line is good because it's good in Madden, but they have been a below average run blocking unit this year.Also, Tennessee runs tons of screens to get Johnson out in open space, Minnesota almost never runs them.Watch Chris Johnson highlights. On every big play when he gets the ball he's got 6 yards around him in all directions with no defenders. Peterson has yet to get the ball in that situation all year. It's remarkable that Peterson is putting up a 5.1ypc behind that line. Chester Taylor is averaging 2.6ypc behind the same line.

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Hey F&L. I was wondering about a dynasty trade that i was offered. I posted in assistant coach, but i didnt get feedback. I enjoy looking over the dynasty blog, I am in a 20 team dynasty with IDP..The trade sent to me was. My Clinton Portis...

I stopped reading right here. At this point, if you can get anything for Clinton Portis, you run- don't walk- to hit accept.
:shrug: This is why I sold him last year at the peak of his value for 1.02. Think anyone would trade Beanie Wells for Portis today? :)

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If the Vikings and Titans did a 1 for 1 deal and traded AP for CJ, what do you guys see happening to their numbers? I see AP's going down, and CJ's going up.

I see the complete opposite. People think Minnesota's line is good because it's good in Madden, but they have been a below average run blocking unit this year.

Also, Tennessee runs tons of screens to get Johnson out in open space, Minnesota almost never runs them.

Watch Chris Johnson highlights. On every big play when he gets the ball he's got 6 yards around him in all directions with no defenders. Peterson has yet to get the ball in that situation all year. It's remarkable that Peterson is putting up a 5.1ypc behind that line. Chester Taylor is averaging 2.6ypc behind the same line.

Not true. Hopefully Week 10 is a sign of things to come. The Titans ran at least 2 screens (maybe 3?) against the Bills, but they had not been running too many screens earlier in the year. They've admittedly gotten more creative about getting CJ the ball in space since Young entered the lineup 3 games ago, but that certainly wasn't the case when Collins was under center. Edited by Fear & Loathing

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* A 26-year old VJax might be the closest thing we'll see to a 26-year old Randy Moss in terms of measurables and play style. Try as I might, Moss is really the only comp I can find for his all-around skillset. If he ever develops Moss's killer instinct, the rest of the NFL had better be afraid.

The closest that anyone may come to Moss is Calvin, and he has quite a ways to go......I'd say V-Jax is closer to Michael Irvin (or Herman Moore or Carl Pickens or Marcus Robinson) moreso than he is to Randy Moss in play style and ability
Irvin is a good comparison. Anyone, including SSOG, is entitled to a little hyperbole when their guy breaks out. Hopefully he also saw the Sunday night game where the NBC folks timed Moss' long touchdown run at something like a 3.6 40. For all the specialness of VJax, Moss is still on another plane as far as measurables and ability even at 32.

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Not to be a pest, but I'd still like to get F&L's thought on this:

I realize in your rankings Gonzalez is ranked fairly low (37 currently) - but in September he was ranked as high as 22. Is the drop simply due to the injury (his ranking will come back up once healthy) - or do you see the injury, combined with him being 1 year older (and a season seeing Garcon/Collie play fairly well) hurting his long term value that much?A similar question could be made in regards to L. Washington/Greene. Most beleive one of the two will be the starter in NY next season (or very soon after that given TJs age). Is the low ranking simply becuase that hasn't happened yet? (i.e. will the value of one or the other jump into the top 15 or so, when TJ is not resigned?)

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F&L (and others who wish, of course), first off, this isn't a "rate my trade" post, but more of a "how do you account for injuries" question.Dynasty TradeTEAM A: Gave Anthony Gonzalez WR, Shonn Greene and Leon WashingtonTEAM B: Gave Rashard Mendenhall and Correl BuckhalterNotes relevant to the discussion (possibly)Start 3 WR and 2 RB (no flex)Team A has R. White, D. Jackson, M. Colston and M. Crabtree already at WR (giving up Gonzo was depth)I realize in your rankings Gonzalez is ranked fairly low (37 currently) - but in September he was ranked as high as 22. Is the drop simply due to the injury (his ranking will come back up once healthy) - or do you see the injury, combined with him being 1 year older (and a season seeing Garcon/Collie play fairly well) hurting his long term value that much?A similar question could be made in regards to L. Washington/Greene. Most beleive one of the two will be the starter in NY next season (or very soon after that given TJs age). Is the low ranking simply becuase that hasn't happened yet? (i.e. will the value of one or the other jump into the top 15 or so, when TJ is not resigned?)Just curious on your thoughts. Oh - and I will let you know which team is mine later. :mellow:

As is almost always the case in Dynasty league trades, the team walking away with the best player wins. In this case, I'd much rather have Mendenhall than the package with Gonzalez and Greene.As SSOG said, "Gonzo's drop is a result of him going from unquestioned #2 in Indy to questioned #2 in Indy."Like the majority of Colts players, much of their value resides in situation rather than talent. Gonzo's situation is a huge question mark right now because the Colts clearly don't need him. The offense is dominant with Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon playing well. What is Gonzo's role when he does come back? Making matters worse is that Gonzo can't get over the hump with this knee injury. I have a bad feeling about an injury that was supposed to have him back in the lineup in Week 7. It's a month later, and we still have no timetable for his return. Re: Washington/Greene. I agree with SSOG that Washington is basically Jerious Norwood North with a few extra touches. He's never going to be "the man." If fact, I'm not sure if we can count on much of a contribution at all next season. He may never be the player he once was after a severe broken leg. I like Greene more than SSOG does, but his value is kept in check by the uncertainly on his ETA for the lead back job. Most of the Jets beat writers believe Thomas Jones will be brought back next season because of Washington's injury, which means another year of waiting for Greene. When he does finally get the job, how valuable will he be? He doesn't catch passes, so he's going to have to find the end zone like Michael Turner to be a fantasy star. I don't mind waiting on a player for a couple of years if I have every reason to believe he's going to be a fantasy difference-maker. But Shonn Greene is no Jonathan Stewart.

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Hey, what's the word on Chris Jenning form Clev?You have him in your Early Waiver Wire Look and I don't know much about him. Is he worth a pickup in a dynasty league?

Not even in 25-man roster leagues.

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Hey F&L. I was wondering about a dynasty trade that i was offered. I posted in assistant coach, but i didnt get feedback. I enjoy looking over the dynasty blog, I am in a 20 team dynasty with IDP..The trade sent to me was. My Clinton Portis, for his Miles Austin.Would you rate my team better with Portis, or with Austin?I am trying to win this year, my team is currently in 2nd, and i feel i have a shot either way.Thoughts???ALSOIFFFF all went well, my dad wants Sproles, and a WR, and he wanted to move CJ3. If i could pull that id be in some good business. But then id be VERY thin at all positions.. withManningCJ3StewartWayneVJaxSmith OR Austin ( if i traded for Johnson)Keller....

I didn't stop reading right there, but the answer remains "what the hell are you waiting for?!" Portis was done coming into this season, but Portis owners have been the most delusional Dynasty leaguers of the past couple of seasons ... so I guess that's to be expected.Take the trade and then go steal CJ3 from your dad ... although I think that's a horrible thing to do to someone who brought you into this world.

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F&L (and others who wish, of course), first off, this isn't a "rate my trade" post, but more of a "how do you account for injuries" question.

Dynasty Trade

TEAM A: Gave Anthony Gonzalez WR, Shonn Greene and Leon Washington

TEAM B: Gave Rashard Mendenhall and Correl Buckhalter

Notes relevant to the discussion (possibly)

Start 3 WR and 2 RB (no flex)

Team A has R. White, D. Jackson, M. Colston and M. Crabtree already at WR (giving up Gonzo was depth)

I realize in your rankings Gonzalez is ranked fairly low (37 currently) - but in September he was ranked as high as 22. Is the drop simply due to the injury (his ranking will come back up once healthy) - or do you see the injury, combined with him being 1 year older (and a season seeing Garcon/Collie play fairly well) hurting his long term value that much?

A similar question could be made in regards to L. Washington/Greene. Most beleive one of the two will be the starter in NY next season (or very soon after that given TJs age). Is the low ranking simply becuase that hasn't happened yet? (i.e. will the value of one or the other jump into the top 15 or so, when TJ is not resigned?)

Just curious on your thoughts. Oh - and I will let you know which team is mine later. :rolleyes:

As is almost always the case in Dynasty league trades, the team walking away with the best player wins. In this case, I'd much rather have Mendenhall than the package with Gonzalez and Greene.

As SSOG said, "Gonzo's drop is a result of him going from unquestioned #2 in Indy to questioned #2 in Indy."

Like the majority of Colts players, much of their value resides in situation rather than talent. Gonzo's situation is a huge question mark right now because the Colts clearly don't need him. The offense is dominant with Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon playing well. What is Gonzo's role when he does come back? Making matters worse is that Gonzo can't get over the hump with this knee injury. I have a bad feeling about an injury that was supposed to have him back in the lineup in Week 7. It's a month later, and we still have no timetable for his return.

Re: Washington/Greene. I agree with SSOG that Washington is basically Jerious Norwood North with a few extra touches. He's never going to be "the man." If fact, I'm not sure if we can count on much of a contribution at all next season. He may never be the player he once was after a severe broken leg. I like Greene more than SSOG does, but his value is kept in check by the uncertainly on his ETA for the lead back job. Most of the Jets beat writers believe Thomas Jones will be brought back next season because of Washington's injury, which means another year of waiting for Greene. When he does finally get the job, how valuable will he be? He doesn't catch passes, so he's going to have to find the end zone like Michael Turner to be a fantasy star.

I don't mind waiting on a player for a couple of years if I have every reason to believe he's going to be a fantasy difference-maker. But Shonn Greene is no Jonathan Stewart.

Thank you sir. Your input and expertise on all things dynastic is fantastic. Just for the record, I was the owner who got Mendenhall :shrug: Edited by DoubleG

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A flyer to be aware of: WR Brandon Gibson.Rookie WR was buried on the Eagles depth chart, but performed so well in the pre-season that Philly didn't try to move him to the practice squad but instead carried an extra WR going into the season.Now...he's been traded to St. Louis. Obviously, his redraft value is still very low, but in deep roster dynasties, this kid is worth a looooong look. I was surprised to find him not even on F&L's rankings list. I'd stick him somewhere in tier 7 right now. He seems to have some talent, and he'll soon have opportunity.

AHHHHHHEeeeeemmmmmmLook's like he'll be starting the rest of the season after a good game last week in his first significant action as a Ram.In deep leagues, he's more then worth a flyer.

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Isn't this also the thread where it is stressed that looking out beyond 3yrs in dynasty is a mistake.

No. This is the thread that said "Swing for the fences because championship banners fly forever." Or "The current season is three times as important as any future season." I personally don't do any strict exit value analysis or project numbers 3-5 years down the road. But that doesn't mean that I don't value the future. While I don't have a hard and fast rule about looking beyond three years, I do have a rule that I don't like RBs once they hit age 28. What's happened the past couple of seasons with young backs vs. aging backs only reinforces that one.

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Does SSOG have a blog or article to follow like F&L ?

Nope, just what you see in this thread.

I'm in this camp also. My thought process on it is that when Favre is gone from the Vikings, who is there to throw Rice the ball?

That thought process will get you in trouble. You could have easily said this offseason "who is there to throw Rice the ball?", too. And then Favre showed up. And even then, as bad as Favre was over the last 8 games last year, questions still could have remained. In the end, don't rank players based on a bad situation, because situation is transitory and talent always rises to the top. If Favre is gone next year (which is no sure thing- he signed a 2 year deal), then there's always Rosenfels. And if not Rosenfels, maybe Jason Campbell. And if not Jason Campbell, maybe Kyle Orton. And if not Orton, maybe Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy or Jake Locker. Or maybe they trade for a Jay Cutler. Or maybe, maybe, maybe... the point is you don't know what's going to happen. If you like Rice's talent, hold him. If you don't, sell him.Personally, I really liked Rice coming out, and I tend to be high on WRs who I liked coming out once they start showing something. As a result, I'd definitely hold.

Hey F&L. I was wondering about a dynasty trade that i was offered. I posted in assistant coach, but i didnt get feedback. I enjoy looking over the dynasty blog, I am in a 20 team dynasty with IDP..The trade sent to me was. My Clinton Portis...

I stopped reading right here. At this point, if you can get anything for Clinton Portis, you run- don't walk- to hit accept.
I agree. Traded him last week for Hester. I just wanted to rid myself of him.

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Looking for some stragedy tips. Our trade deadline is tomorrow and it has me wondering if i should shake some things up. Im 8-2 and leading the league is FP and wins. Was 8-1 before last week but been saying all along my team isnt as good as the record states. I drafted this team very young and made some bad deals along the way this season, but i still have a decent core for the future. This is a PPR DYNASTY 12 teamer where we start 1QB 1RB 1WR 1TE 3FLEX 1K 1DEF. (3 flex means you could start 4 rb's if you wished)Roster:A.Rodgers, M.CassellM.Drew, DWill, J.Stewert, A.Bradshaw, Leon W, B.Scott, D.Ware, Ko.Smith, M.GoodsonS.Rice, M.Austin, H.Nicks, P.Harvin, M.Manningham, E.Royal, L.Coles, J.Morgan, C.Henry, L.NaaneeJ.Casey, B.PettigrewLongwell, AkersDef of the week.I tried once making a deal to improve my TE situation and it blew up in my face sending D.Keller and a 1st for O.Daniles and 2nd type of deal only for OD to end up hurt and there was NOTHING at te on the ww so i traded OD back to the same team for Pettigrew after his decent game trying to get some stablenessat te.Anyway, with this YOUNG team in ppr would you stay put and let the chips fall as they may or would you ship off a Harvin or Nicks type (since they seem to have the most trade value to land a very good player).Thx for any insight fellas. Just this team is a big mystery to me.

Look for some teams out of contention and buy a Donald Driver or a Hines Ward off of them on the cheap to shore up your WR situation. The only way I'd deal either Harvin or Nicks is if I could get an upgrade at WR- maybe trading one of them to a team out of contention for Santonio Holmes, Steve Smith North, or Chad Ochocinco, or else packaging one of them with Washington or Bradshaw for another quality young WR who is actually producing at a WR2+ level right now. You might even be able to steal Randy Moss if the owner's out of contention. Another route would be to try to package the two of them together for a Roddy White type.Also, since we're on the subject, I hate the idea of trade deadlines in dynasty leagues. It's not like redraft where once you're eliminated from the playoffs there's nothing to prevent you from destroying your team and tanking on purpose.

* A 26-year old VJax might be the closest thing we'll see to a 26-year old Randy Moss in terms of measurables and play style. Try as I might, Moss is really the only comp I can find for his all-around skillset. If he ever develops Moss's killer instinct, the rest of the NFL had better be afraid.

The closest that anyone may come to Moss is Calvin, and he has quite a ways to go......I'd say V-Jax is closer to Michael Irvin (or Herman Moore or Carl Pickens or Marcus Robinson) moreso than he is to Randy Moss in play style and ability
Irvin is a good comparison. Anyone, including SSOG, is entitled to a little hyperbole when their guy breaks out. Hopefully he also saw the Sunday night game where the NBC folks timed Moss' long touchdown run at something like a 3.6 40. For all the specialness of VJax, Moss is still on another plane as far as measurables and ability even at 32.
Irvin was a great WR, but he was 6'2", 207 lbs, and ran the 40 in over 4.5 seconds.

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THX SSOG.

I did try that sniffing around for Moss with Harvin as bait with the owner out of contention sorta.

But he decided to stay with Moss. Again thx for the help....i dont want to go doing too much cause i really dont feel my team is really nothing more

than a pretender.

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Irvin was a great WR, but he was 6'2", 207 lbs, and ran the 40 in over 4.5 seconds.

There is a much smaller difference between 4.45 and 4.55 than between 4.45 and track speed. VJax doesn't have track speed. He has great speed for a 6'5" guy. Please show me clips of VJax outrunning corners on fly routes.

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If the Vikings and Titans did a 1 for 1 deal and traded AP for CJ, what do you guys see happening to their numbers? I see AP's going down, and CJ's going up.

I see the complete opposite. People think Minnesota's line is good because it's good in Madden, but they have been a below average run blocking unit this year.Also, Tennessee runs tons of screens to get Johnson out in open space, Minnesota almost never runs them.Watch Chris Johnson highlights. On every big play when he gets the ball he's got 6 yards around him in all directions with no defenders. Peterson has yet to get the ball in that situation all year. It's remarkable that Peterson is putting up a 5.1ypc behind that line. Chester Taylor is averaging 2.6ypc behind the same line.
no offense but I disagree with you on almost every point. The left side of the vikings line has played fine (hutch has been hurt and doesn't have birk to his left so he has not been elite but I think the majority of the nfl would take steve hutchinson at 85%,) i think sullivan has sucked and herrera has never been good. Loadholt has been improving weekly and is a serviceable RT.Tennessee's line has not played at a great level this year either. Roos isn't playing at the level he was last year, the interior of the line is also down (Mawae, scott) ... Amano and Stewart have been solid on the right side but they are not performing any better (and probably worse then the vikings 5some.Also, on the Chris Johnson thing. You obviously didnt watch the San Fran game or even a lot of the Bills game. If anything Johnson is greatly helped by both Scaife and Crumpler being big TEs who can help seal the edge. The best thing about him is he gets to the edge before a defense can close.A lot of Adrian Peterson's negative runs are less to do with poor blocking and more to do with him wanting to either bust something outside instead of taking sure yardage or him trying to setup a big cutback and defenses staying disciplined on the back side. I can understand your chester comparison but in seeing the games I have ... he just doesn't seem to be the back he was last season. He looks indecisive and skiddish.

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