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I don't care what the rationale is... there is no excuse for Fox getting Williams 13 carries for 122 yards and Stewart 12 carries for 43 yards. No excuse. And the Panthers lose because of this... they have given Williams fewer than 15 carries 3 times this season... all losses. In the other games, the Panthers are 4-3.

That's awfully reactionary thinking. I could just as easily say that there was no excuse last week for Fox getting Williams 19 carries for 92 yards when Stewart had 11 carries for 82 yards and 2 scores. Or say that against the Bucs there was no excuse for Fox to give Williams 30 carries when he was averaging only 5 ypc and only give 17 carries to Stewart when he was averaging 6.5 ypc. At the end of the day, Stewart has 4.8 ypc this season and Williams has 5.1, and those figures hold more predictive value for the next carry than whatever the individual RBs have produced to that point in the game. The whole "hot hand" idea is usually a fallacy- just because an RB has broken a couple of big runs already this game doesn't mean he's any more likely to break another big run on his next carry.

Stewart was running very well tonight, despite what his ypc might look like. Look at the following carries, for instance:

2-3-MIA41 (13:00) (No Huddle) J.Stewart left guard to MIA 37 for 4 yards (J.Porter).

2-10-MIA37 (12:21) J.Stewart left tackle to MIA 27 for 10 yards (Y.Bell).

1-10-CAR14 (1:33) J.Stewart right end to CAR 21 for 7 yards (S.Smith; T.McDaniel).

3-1-CAR36 (11:09) J.Stewart up the middle to CAR 41 for 5 yards (T.McDaniel).

1-10-MIA31 (12:06) (No Huddle) J.Stewart left tackle to MIA 24 for 7 yards (G.Wilson).

1-10-MIA41 (2:06) J.Stewart right tackle to MIA 35 for 6 yards (J.Ferguson).

That's six extremely productive carries, good enough for a 50% success rate on the day, which is a pretty solid outing by NFL standards (only 9 RBs finished last season with a 50+% success rate). The problem wasn't Stewart- as F&L already said, the problem was giving Delhomme 40+ pass attempts.

It's not reactionary at all. I would have said the same thing before the game last night... no good reason to give Stewart as many carries as Williams. IMO Williams is one of the top few RBs in the NFL and Stewart is not in that tier.

And as long as we're going to discuss their ypc, let's get it right. Williams is averaging 5.4 ypc on the season, Stewart is averaging 4.6. Last year, Williams averaged 5.5 ypc, compared to Stewart's 4.5. Williams averages 5.2 ypc for his career... Stewart averages 4.6.

Sure, Stewart looked fine on those 6 carries you cited, which totaled 39 yards... How about these 9 touches:

1st and 10 at MIA 48 (No Huddle) D.Williams up the middle to MIA 41 for 7 yards (G.Wilson).

1st and 10 at CAR 20 D.Williams left end to CAR 28 for 8 yards (G.Wilson).

2nd and 3 at CAR 21 D.Williams left tackle to CAR 34 for 13 yards (S.Smith).

2nd and 10 at CAR 27 D.Williams up the middle to CAR 36 for 9 yards (Y.Bell).

2nd and 11 at CAR 19 (No Huddle) D.Williams left guard to MIA 31 for 50 yards (Y.Bell).

2nd and 10 at CAR 45 D.Williams left tackle to MIA 46 for 9 yards (S.Smith).

2nd and 4 at MIA 35 J.Delhomme pass short middle to D.Williams to MIA 26 for 9 yards (S.Smith).

1st and 10 at MIA 26 D.Williams left tackle to MIA 8 for 18 yards (Y.Bell; P.Merling).

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Williams rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

ETA: In his career, the Panthers are 19-7 in games in which Williams got 15 or more carries, and 11-19 in games in which he got fewer than 15 carries. (Not including 3 games he didn't play in 2006... they were 1-2 in those games.)

Edited by Just Win Baby

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ETA: In his career, the Panthers are 19-7 in games in which Williams got 15 or more carries, and 11-19 in games in which he got fewer than 15 carries. (Not including 3 games he didn't play in 2006... they were 1-2 in those games.)

What was the record for just last year with the above?

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ETA: In his career, the Panthers are 19-7 in games in which Williams got 15 or more carries, and 11-19 in games in which he got fewer than 15 carries. (Not including 3 games he didn't play in 2006... they were 1-2 in those games.)

This type of drawing conclusion based on stat correlation is extremely flawed. The correlation is likely relational, but not causal. In fact, many would argue that the fact that the Panthers were losing could be the reason Williams is not getting more carries (not the other way around). Specifically, the stat of "when X player gets Y carries the team wins more" is usually the issue. The one variable (carries) does not necessarily cause the other (W or L) - in fact sometimes the causal relationship works the other way.

I do, however, agree that a team with a poor QB throwing 40+ times and running <30 times with two great RBs is poor offensive game planning. But again, some of it (not all of it) had to do with the fact that Carolina was trailing by 2 scores quite a bit.

Edited by DoubleG

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I don't care what the rationale is... there is no excuse for Fox getting Williams 13 carries for 122 yards and Stewart 12 carries for 43 yards. No excuse. And the Panthers lose because of this... they have given Williams fewer than 15 carries 3 times this season... all losses. In the other games, the Panthers are 4-3.

The problem wasn't Stewart's carries, it was the 42 pass attempts by Jake Delhomme in a game where the Panthers offensive coaches were clearly game-planning to keep Delhomme's confidence rising. It failed ... utterly.
If you don't follow the Panthers closely, you might not know that Fox is more protective of Delhomme than a mother hen is of her chicks. It's really amazing to see. I'm not sure if Delhomme has pictures of Fox in a compromising position or what, but Fox would seriously rather sink with Delhomme than bench him long term or fade him out. The Keyshawn Johnson incident is just one example of that and you're seeing it again now. However, I think that even an owner who has been distracted by firing his sons and his own heart surgery can see that this year and I'm betting Fox goes down with Delhomme in the off season.

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ETA: In his career, the Panthers are 19-7 in games in which Williams got 15 or more carries, and 11-19 in games in which he got fewer than 15 carries. (Not including 3 games he didn't play in 2006... they were 1-2 in those games.)

What was the record for just last year with the above?
2006: 2-2 with 15 or more carries vs. 5-4 with fewer than 15 carries2007: 4-0 vs. 3-92008: 9-2 vs. 3-32009: 4-3 vs. 0-3

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ETA: In his career, the Panthers are 19-7 in games in which Williams got 15 or more carries, and 11-19 in games in which he got fewer than 15 carries. (Not including 3 games he didn't play in 2006... they were 1-2 in those games.)

This type of drawing conclusion based on stat correlation is extremely flawed. The correlation is likely relational, but not causal. In fact, many would argue that the fact that the Panthers were losing could be the reason Williams is not getting more carries (not the other way around). Specifically, the stat of "when X player gets Y carries the team wins more" is usually the issue. The one variable (carries) does not necessarily cause the other (W or L) - in fact sometimes the causal relationship works the other way.

I do, however, agree that a team with a poor QB throwing 40+ times and running <30 times with two great RBs is poor offensive game planning. But again, some of it (not all of it) had to do with the fact that Carolina was trailing by 2 scores quite a bit.

I understand all this. It is still a fact that the Panthers should be entering every game planning to get Williams at least 15 carries. Not because it guarantees a win, but because he is their best player, and giving the ball to your best player at least 15 times should increase the chance of winning.

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Just wanted to get a collective opinion on Brian Brohm. I know he's struggled mightily at times and couldn't beat out Flynn for the backup job. At the same time, he's a second round talent, the Packers tried to keep him, and there's a lot of offensive talent in Buffalo and not exactly a ton of competition at QB. (I guess the real question is whether they add someone in the draft next year).

What do you think of his prospects? In my primary 16 team league with 6 pts per pass TD, I'm still holding on to Jamarcus as a backup to Ryan. I was only holding him because - given the league - he would be rostered anyway and a starting QB no matter how bad is worth something.

At this point, I'm thinking about cutting Jamarcus and taking a flyer on another guy like Brohm, Moore, etc. who at least have some upside... and then maybe (since I do have roster spot just not contract years), adding Jamarcus on teh cheap. (He's signed at 2.6m now, but I could probably cut him pay the 50% penalty and still sign him for less per year).

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I don't care what the rationale is... there is no excuse for Fox getting Williams 13 carries for 122 yards and Stewart 12 carries for 43 yards. No excuse. And the Panthers lose because of this... they have given Williams fewer than 15 carries 3 times this season... all losses. In the other games, the Panthers are 4-3.

The problem wasn't Stewart's carries, it was the 42 pass attempts by Jake Delhomme in a game where the Panthers offensive coaches were clearly game-planning to keep Delhomme's confidence rising. It failed ... utterly.
If you don't follow the Panthers closely, you might not know that Fox is more protective of Delhomme than a mother hen is of her chicks. It's really amazing to see. I'm not sure if Delhomme has pictures of Fox in a compromising position or what, but Fox would seriously rather sink with Delhomme than bench him long term or fade him out. The Keyshawn Johnson incident is just one example of that and you're seeing it again now. However, I think that even an owner who has been distracted by firing his sons and his own heart surgery can see that this year and I'm betting Fox goes down with Delhomme in the off season.
Unfortunately, it's going to be hard for them to bench Delhomme due to the contract extension they gave him earlier this year. Details:

4/25/2009: Signed a five-year, $42.5 million contract extension through 2014. The deal contains $20 million guaranteed, including a $3.125 million signing bonus. 2009: $3.2 million, 2010: $1.624 million (+ $10.14 million "signing" bonus), 2011: $1.74 million, 2012: $2.7 million, 2013: $3.66 million, 2014: $4.62 million, 2015: Free Agent. Cap charges: $8.591 million (2009), $4.785 million (2010), $5.745 million (2011), $6.705 million (2012), $7.665 million (2013), $8 million (2014).

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ETA: In his career, the Panthers are 19-7 in games in which Williams got 15 or more carries, and 11-19 in games in which he got fewer than 15 carries. (Not including 3 games he didn't play in 2006... they were 1-2 in those games.)

What was the record for just last year with the above?
2006: 2-2 with 15 or more carries vs. 5-4 with fewer than 15 carries2007: 4-0 vs. 3-92008: 9-2 vs. 3-32009: 4-3 vs. 0-3
Thanks.

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ETA: In his career, the Panthers are 19-7 in games in which Williams got 15 or more carries, and 11-19 in games in which he got fewer than 15 carries. (Not including 3 games he didn't play in 2006... they were 1-2 in those games.)

This type of drawing conclusion based on stat correlation is extremely flawed. The correlation is likely relational, but not causal. In fact, many would argue that the fact that the Panthers were losing could be the reason Williams is not getting more carries (not the other way around). Specifically, the stat of "when X player gets Y carries the team wins more" is usually the issue. The one variable (carries) does not necessarily cause the other (W or L) - in fact sometimes the causal relationship works the other way.

I do, however, agree that a team with a poor QB throwing 40+ times and running <30 times with two great RBs is poor offensive game planning. But again, some of it (not all of it) had to do with the fact that Carolina was trailing by 2 scores quite a bit.

I understand all this. It is still a fact that the Panthers should be entering every game planning to get Williams at least 15 carries. Not because it guarantees a win, but because he is their best player, and giving the ball to your best player at least 15 times should increase the chance of winning.
While I certainly understand your frustration and agree with your premise, there are a few things that play into it. First off, Steve Smith is pretty good too - trying to get him the ball too is a good thing for the Panthers. Secondly, in all fairness, 6 of Delhomme's attempts were the last 3 plays in each half, trailing 14-3 at half and trying to tie the game at the end. Two of his attempts were actually to D.Williams. I am not defending John Fox, his O-coordinator or Delhomme's poor QB play - they are all certainly at fault (the 3rd and 1 pass on their 2nd posession is horrible call). As I said, I do agree with your presmise - get the ball in the hands of your great player(s) more. Some of the problem is, imho, that Panthers fell behind to early and Jake Delhomme's attempts to get the ball in the hands of one of their two top players (Smith) sometimes fails spectacularly.

As this is a dynatsy thread and not a Panthers thread, we should probably stop here though.

Edited by DoubleG

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Guest awesomeness

i don't necessarily disagree with your opinion on Stewart, i think he's an excellent back, but i think you dwell too much on combine numbers.

More than any other position, RB exhibits the strongest correlation between measurables and success. That's why all those blue-chip busts with fantastic pedigree so often wind up turning their careers around after everyone gave up on them (DeAngelo, TJones, Benson, etc). It's also why metrics like BMI and Speed Score correlate so strongly to RB success. It's one thing to throw out combine numbers for a back who is stinking up the joint, but when a guy is 22 years old and has averaged 4.6 ypc for his career, those combine measurements remain very, very relevant. Things like vision and burst and patience and balance are all very important tools in an RB's toolkit, but obviously Stewart has those or he wouldn't have gotten drafted @ #13 overall and he wouldn't be excelling in the NFL. I'm more interested in the kinds of advantages Stewart possesses that no other back in the league can match. Physically, he's Steven Jackson, only more so.
As i said earlier, i think Jonathon Stewart is a great player. My point was, i don't think anyone should consider him, or any player for that matter, a great player based primarily on combine numbers. The qualities you mentioned earlier (burst, vision, balance, patience, etc.) are just as important if not more important than combine numbers. The reason Jonathon Stewart is successful is because he has those qualities, the insane combine numbers are just an unnecessary luxury imo.

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As this is a dynatsy thread and not a Panthers thread, we should probably stop here though.

Agreed. It did stimulate a bit of discussion about two great dynasty RBs... but sorry for the hijack.

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The qualities you mentioned earlier (burst, vision, balance, patience, etc.) are just as important if not more important than combine numbers. The reason Jonathon Stewart is successful is because he has those qualities, the insane combine numbers are just an unnecessary luxury imo.

No, the reason he's successful is because he has those qualities AND the insane combine numbers.There are hundreds of RBs in the NCAA with good vision, toughness, and instincts. The reason most of them will never play a down in the NFL is because they lack the physical gifts needed to excel at that level.

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Gotta say this is my favorite thread bar none, anywhere. Appreciate the past input when moving Schaub for Flaco.

I would love some opinions on Darren McFadden. I can't decide if the old adage 'the cream will rise to the top' is true and DMC's talent will someday surpass his abysmal surroundings, or if his penchant for getting dinged EASILY and playing on a sub-standard NFL team will doom his outlook.

Is he worth a late round 1st in next years draft (Which looks thin) or should a guy look to spend his lottery tickets elsewhere?

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The qualities you mentioned earlier (burst, vision, balance, patience, etc.) are just as important if not more important than combine numbers. The reason Jonathon Stewart is successful is because he has those qualities, the insane combine numbers are just an unnecessary luxury imo.

No, the reason he's successful is because he has those qualities AND the insane combine numbers.There are hundreds of RBs in the NCAA with good vision, toughness, and instincts. The reason most of them will never play a down in the NFL is because they lack the physical gifts needed to excel at that level.
Exactly. Elite physical talent is necessary, but not sufficient, to be an elite NFL player.

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Gotta say this is my favorite thread bar none, anywhere. Appreciate the past input when moving Schaub for Flaco.I would love some opinions on Darren McFadden. I can't decide if the old adage 'the cream will rise to the top' is true and DMC's talent will someday surpass his abysmal surroundings, or if his penchant for getting dinged EASILY and playing on a sub-standard NFL team will doom his outlook. Is he worth a late round 1st in next years draft (Which looks thin) or should a guy look to spend his lottery tickets elsewhere?

I would look elsewhere. I think McFadden is, and always has been, fool's gold. Thus far he's done nothing to change my mind.

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If you are tied for first would a guy trade S. Greene or D. Brown for R. Williams

Starting Rb's Barber, D. William and K. Moreno

The guy who has R. Williams is in 2nd to last place and has terrible Rb's

2nd Question

As a D. Williams owner what do you have to give up to get J. Stewart

Edited by new-guru

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Great stuff in this thread---it's my daily required reading. Fantastic insight on players from some really knowledgeable people. :) I have a question about Jonathan Stewart vs. DeAngelo Williams. From what I've read in this thread and seen in F&L's rankings, Stewart is looked upon very highly, despite being a backup. He's definitely produced a fair amount over his first 2 years in the league, particularly with scoring TDs, but something's been bothering me about his performance.Last year, he averaged 4.5 ypc, and this year he's increased that to 4.8 ypc. Deangelo, behind the same line, averaged about 5.5 ypc last year, down to 5.1 ypc this year. Given that Deangelo's the workhorse back and sees more carries, shouldn't his ypc be lower? I know on F&L's rankings, Stewart is ranked 13th to DWill's 7th, but is that due to a strict talent comparison? I know that you can't put everything on ypc, but I feel that there's a pretty strong correlation between ypc and general talent/production in FF.I guess what I'm asking is a little insight as to the talent level of Stewart. If he got the chance to be a feature back, who would he be comparable to? Steven Jackson? Ray Rice? Ronnie Brown or Pierre Thomas? I'm talking about pure talent level, all else being equal. I'm assuming that most people think that DWill is the more talented back, if they were the same age.Thanks in advance for any insight.

It's hard to do a straight ypc comparison, because ypc isn't just team and player dependent, it's also SITUATION dependent.Imagine two hypothetical RBs. One RB averages 2 yards per carry on 3rd and 1, and averages 5 yards per carry on 1st and 10. The second RB averages 0 yards per carry on 3rd and 1, and 4 yards per carry on 1st and 10. The first RB has a better ypc in both situations, but if the second RB gets all of the first down carries and the first RB gets all of the third down carries, then the second RB will actually wind up with the higher overall ypc! This phenomenon (that a player can have a higher ypc in every single situation, but a lower overall ypc) is called "Simpson's Paradox", and is a very real effect that depresses the overall ypc of any RB who gets an inordinate about of red zone or short yardage carries.In addition to Simpson's Paradox, the ypc statistic always favors big-play RBs over consistent chain-movers. For instance, looking back at Denver, Tatum Bell always posted a sterling ypc (the best on the team in every season, iirc), despite the fact that he was viewed as mediocre and expendable. The reason was because he'd pad his total with a handful of huge runs. A guy who has 9 runs for 2 yards and a run for 32 yards is averaging 5.0 ypc, but a guy who runs for 4 yards half the time and 5 yards the other half is significantly more valuable.The final variable at play is where the runs are taking place. If a player only ever got the ball at the 1 yard line, the highest ypc he could possibly post would be 1.0 ypc. The closer to the end zone the runs are coming, the less potential there is for a long run that brings up the average ypc- after all, it's impossible to break an 80 yard run from midfield.Anyway, to see what's at play in Carolina, I did a bit of digging into splits. The data suggests that Stewart converts a higher percentage of short yardage carries, while Williams has a higher percentage of long runs, which seems to fit with my subjective take on their respective skills. Stewart's probably never going to be the kind of guy who can put up a ypc in the same ballpark as Williams', just like Steven Jackson is never going to be a 5+ ypc kind of guy (even if his unbelievable 2006, he only averaged 4.4 ypc). To be honest, though, Stewart doesn't have to put up a 5+ ypc in order to be a fantasy stud.In terms of physical attributes, the best comparisons for Stewart are Ronnie Brown and Steven Jackson. Those two are pretty much the only guys who have entered the NFL this decade with a comparable package of size and speed, although Stewart's size/speed combo is actually better than either of theirs. Williams is a more dynamic talent and a bigger threat in the open field, but Stewart is better suited to be a bellcow like Peterson, Jackson, or MJD. I really think that Williams benefits from Stewart's presence in a lot of ways, and that he wouldn't be doing as well without Stewart around. It's hard to say which RB is the more talented of the two, because they're very different backs, but I do think that both RBs are among the 5-8 most talented RBs in the league today.
Thanks for this SSOG, exactly what I was looking for, and makes a ton of sense.

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If you are tied for first would a guy trade S. Greene or D. Brown for R. Williams

Starting Rb's Barber, D. William and K. Moreno

The guy who has R. Williams is in 2nd to last place and has terrible Rb's

2nd Question

As a D. Williams owner what do you have to give up to get J. Stewart

I would - because Championship banners fly forever. With DWill and Moreno you have two good young backs still (and whichever one of the two you mentioned that you don't trade).

As far as the 2nd question - I have no idea. It really depends on the owner who has him in your league.

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If you are tied for first would a guy trade S. Greene or D. Brown for R. Williams

Starting Rb's Barber, D. William and K. Moreno

The guy who has R. Williams is in 2nd to last place and has terrible Rb's

2nd Question

As a D. Williams owner what do you have to give up to get J. Stewart

Not the DWill owner in one of my dynasties but I did offer Calvin for J Stew and B Marshall and was turned down without a counter.

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The qualities you mentioned earlier (burst, vision, balance, patience, etc.) are just as important if not more important than combine numbers. The reason Jonathon Stewart is successful is because he has those qualities, the insane combine numbers are just an unnecessary luxury imo.

No, the reason he's successful is because he has those qualities AND the insane combine numbers.There are hundreds of RBs in the NCAA with good vision, toughness, and instincts. The reason most of them will never play a down in the NFL is because they lack the physical gifts needed to excel at that level.
Plus Stewart is only 22 years old, will be 23 when DeAngelo's contract runs out after next season, and 24 going into the 2011 season when he will likely be the starter in Carolina. And he is fantasy startable at times now when he isn't a starter in the NFL.

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If you are tied for first would a guy trade S. Greene or D. Brown for R. Williams

Starting Rb's Barber, D. William and K. Moreno

The guy who has R. Williams is in 2nd to last place and has terrible Rb's

2nd Question

As a D. Williams owner what do you have to give up to get J. Stewart

Not the DWill owner in one of my dynasties but I did offer Calvin for J Stew and B Marshall and was turned down without a counter.
Back in February I gave Grant and Michael Bush for Stewart.

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If you are tied for first would a guy trade S. Greene or D. Brown for R. WilliamsStarting Rb's Barber, D. William and K. MorenoThe guy who has R. Williams is in 2nd to last place and has terrible Rb's

In a dynasty league? No way, no how. Ricky's value could evaporate as quickly as it's reappeared.

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Great stuff in this thread---it's my daily required reading. Fantastic insight on players from some really knowledgeable people. :popcorn:

I have a question about Jonathan Stewart vs. DeAngelo Williams. From what I've read in this thread and seen in F&L's rankings, Stewart is looked upon very highly, despite being a backup. He's definitely produced a fair amount over his first 2 years in the league, particularly with scoring TDs, but something's been bothering me about his performance.

Last year, he averaged 4.5 ypc, and this year he's increased that to 4.8 ypc. Deangelo, behind the same line, averaged about 5.5 ypc last year, down to 5.1 ypc this year. Given that Deangelo's the workhorse back and sees more carries, shouldn't his ypc be lower? I know on F&L's rankings, Stewart is ranked 13th to DWill's 7th, but is that due to a strict talent comparison? I know that you can't put everything on ypc, but I feel that there's a pretty strong correlation between ypc and general talent/production in FF.

I guess what I'm asking is a little insight as to the talent level of Stewart. If he got the chance to be a feature back, who would he be comparable to? Steven Jackson? Ray Rice? Ronnie Brown or Pierre Thomas? I'm talking about pure talent level, all else being equal. I'm assuming that most people think that DWill is the more talented back, if they were the same age.

Thanks in advance for any insight.

It's hard to do a straight ypc comparison, because ypc isn't just team and player dependent, it's also SITUATION dependent.

Imagine two hypothetical RBs. One RB averages 2 yards per carry on 3rd and 1, and averages 5 yards per carry on 1st and 10. The second RB averages 0 yards per carry on 3rd and 1, and 4 yards per carry on 1st and 10. The first RB has a better ypc in both situations, but if the second RB gets all of the first down carries and the first RB gets all of the third down carries, then the second RB will actually wind up with the higher overall ypc! This phenomenon (that a player can have a higher ypc in every single situation, but a lower overall ypc) is called "Simpson's Paradox", and is a very real effect that depresses the overall ypc of any RB who gets an inordinate about of red zone or short yardage carries.

In addition to Simpson's Paradox, the ypc statistic always favors big-play RBs over consistent chain-movers. For instance, looking back at Denver, Tatum Bell always posted a sterling ypc (the best on the team in every season, iirc), despite the fact that he was viewed as mediocre and expendable. The reason was because he'd pad his total with a handful of huge runs. A guy who has 9 runs for 2 yards and a run for 32 yards is averaging 5.0 ypc, but a guy who runs for 4 yards half the time and 5 yards the other half is significantly more valuable.

The final variable at play is where the runs are taking place. If a player only ever got the ball at the 1 yard line, the highest ypc he could possibly post would be 1.0 ypc. The closer to the end zone the runs are coming, the less potential there is for a long run that brings up the average ypc- after all, it's impossible to break an 80 yard run from midfield.

Anyway, to see what's at play in Carolina, I did a bit of digging into splits. The data suggests that Stewart converts a higher percentage of short yardage carries, while Williams has a higher percentage of long runs, which seems to fit with my subjective take on their respective skills. Stewart's probably never going to be the kind of guy who can put up a ypc in the same ballpark as Williams', just like Steven Jackson is never going to be a 5+ ypc kind of guy (even if his unbelievable 2006, he only averaged 4.4 ypc). To be honest, though, Stewart doesn't have to put up a 5+ ypc in order to be a fantasy stud.

In terms of physical attributes, the best comparisons for Stewart are Ronnie Brown and Steven Jackson. Those two are pretty much the only guys who have entered the NFL this decade with a comparable package of size and speed, although Stewart's size/speed combo is actually better than either of theirs. Williams is a more dynamic talent and a bigger threat in the open field, but Stewart is better suited to be a bellcow like Peterson, Jackson, or MJD. I really think that Williams benefits from Stewart's presence in a lot of ways, and that he wouldn't be doing as well without Stewart around. It's hard to say which RB is the more talented of the two, because they're very different backs, but I do think that both RBs are among the 5-8 most talented RBs in the league today.

This was a very good post. However, I don't agree with a couple of your comments.

The data suggests that Stewart converts a higher percentage of short yardage carries

I'm not sure where you got your data that Stewart converts a higher percentage of short yardage carries. I got this information from the Data Dominator, for situations this year with 1-3 yards to go:

Williams - 26 carries, 147 yards, 15 first downs, and 4 TDs (5.65 ypc)

Stewart - 24 carries, 97 yards, 14 first downs, and 3 TDs (4.04 ypc)

Technically, Stewart converted more first downs, 58.3% to 57.7%, but that's essentially a wash. And Williams was much more productive on his short yardage carries. Plus, Williams has 5 targets, 4 catches, 24 yards, and 4 first downs in those situations, while Stewart has 0 targets.

(Note that these results do not include last night's game.)

Williams is a more dynamic talent and a bigger threat in the open field, but Stewart is better suited to be a bellcow like Peterson, Jackson, or MJD.

Based on what? I am not aware of any evidence that Williams cannot be a bellcow, whatever you mean exactly by that term. He excels in every game situation, and he has been durable. He's never been given the opportunity to touch the ball as often as Steven Jackson, but that doesn't mean he can't handle it. And Stewart has never been given that load, either, so he is equally unproven in that regard.

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Williams is a more dynamic talent and a bigger threat in the open field, but Stewart is better suited to be a bellcow like Peterson, Jackson, or MJD.

Based on what? I am not aware of any evidence that Williams cannot be a bellcow, whatever you mean exactly by that term. He excels in every game situation, and he has been durable. He's never been given the opportunity to touch the ball as often as Steven Jackson, but that doesn't mean he can't handle it. And Stewart has never been given that load, either, so he is equally unproven in that regard.
I think the perception is that Williams is some small speedy back, becaue he was the "Dash" in "Smash and Dash". However he's 217 lbs. which is plenty big and I don't see how he isn't more than capable of being a feature back. I'm not sure what SSOG means by "better suited" to be the bellcow, but both backs are up to that task imo. In fact Stewart has shown a bigger propsentiy for getting dinged up in his college and so far in his brief NFL career,

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If you are tied for first would a guy trade S. Greene or D. Brown for R. WilliamsStarting Rb's Barber, D. William and K. MorenoThe guy who has R. Williams is in 2nd to last place and has terrible Rb's

In a dynasty league? No way, no how. Ricky's value could evaporate as quickly as it's reappeared.
The tied for first guy is right to target Ricky but Ricky's price shouldn't be that high. I would trade Greene for Williams and another young RB - Bradshaw or Choice or someone actually decent - but straight up is too high. A lot of "win now" guys will target Ricky, but he's not the only rental that can make a difference - TJones and Betts are also cheap targets who should put up #2 RB numbers. Another player to consider - Charles gets Buff wk 14 and Cle wk 15 both at home. He might still be undervalued. F&L has him on par with Bradshaw, Slaton, etc. but I highly doubt he costs that much at this point. A late 1st for Charles might add a killer flex play for the first couple rounds.

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It's not reactionary at all. I would have said the same thing before the game last night... no good reason to give Stewart as many carries as Williams. IMO Williams is one of the top few RBs in the NFL and Stewart is not in that tier.

And as long as we're going to discuss their ypc, let's get it right. Williams is averaging 5.4 ypc on the season, Stewart is averaging 4.6.

NOW they are, but it'd be pretty darn silly for a coaching staff to base the carry split in the game on what the two RBs ypc values would be... AFTER THE GAME. Going into the Miami game, Williams was at 5.1 on the year, and Stewart was at 4.8 for the year... which is a heck of a lot more relevant to what happened during the game than their ypc figures after the game was over.

Sure, Stewart looked fine on those 6 carries you cited, which totaled 39 yards... How about these 9 touches:

1st and 10 at MIA 48 (No Huddle) D.Williams up the middle to MIA 41 for 7 yards (G.Wilson).

1st and 10 at CAR 20 D.Williams left end to CAR 28 for 8 yards (G.Wilson).

2nd and 3 at CAR 21 D.Williams left tackle to CAR 34 for 13 yards (S.Smith).

2nd and 10 at CAR 27 D.Williams up the middle to CAR 36 for 9 yards (Y.Bell).

2nd and 11 at CAR 19 (No Huddle) D.Williams left guard to MIA 31 for 50 yards (Y.Bell).

2nd and 10 at CAR 45 D.Williams left tackle to MIA 46 for 9 yards (S.Smith).

2nd and 4 at MIA 35 J.Delhomme pass short middle to D.Williams to MIA 26 for 9 yards (S.Smith).

1st and 10 at MIA 26 D.Williams left tackle to MIA 8 for 18 yards (Y.Bell; P.Merling).

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Williams rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

ETA: In his career, the Panthers are 19-7 in games in which Williams got 15 or more carries, and 11-19 in games in which he got fewer than 15 carries. (Not including 3 games he didn't play in 2006... they were 1-2 in those games.)

So... Stewart was successful on 6 of his 12 carries, and Williams was successful on 9 of his 13 carries. That's hardly an overwhelming statistical difference... and the kicker is that it's a complete after-the-fact justification. After the first drive, Williams was successful on 1 of 3 carries, while Stewart was successful on 2 of 2. After the first three drives, Williams was successful on 3 of 7 carries while Stewart was successful on 3 of 4. At halftime, Stewart had been successful on 4 of 7 carries, while Williams had been successful on 4 of 8. Sure, in the second half, Williams would be 5-of-5 on his carries while Stewart would only be 2-of-5... but there was nothing that had happened in the game so far that would suggest that would be the case, so even if you subscribe to the "hot hand" theory and see that as something other than random fluctuation or statistical noise, the coaches were still perfectly justified in keeping Stewart as involved as Williams. What they WEREN'T justified in was only calling 10 runs in the entire second half.

And you really don't need me to tell you how stupid the "Team X wins more when the RB gets more carries" argument is. It's a complete bastardization of correlation and causation. Hell, the Oakland Raiders are undefeated when Darren McFadden gets 20+ carries! I understand your point (Williams is a great player, get him the ball), but it simplifies the matter too much. From where I sit, there are three great players on the Panthers offense- Williams, Smiff, and Stewart. I think Smiff is more talented than Williams, and I think Stewart factors more prominently in the team's long-term plans, which means you can't really involve Williams at the expense of either.

If you are tied for first would a guy trade S. Greene or D. Brown for R. Williams

Starting Rb's Barber, D. William and K. Moreno

The guy who has R. Williams is in 2nd to last place and has terrible Rb's

2nd Question

As a D. Williams owner what do you have to give up to get J. Stewart

1st Question-

I wouldn't, mostly because you could probably get Williams for cheaper if you played hard to get (Williams literally does that guy no good, so at the end of the day he has to take what he can get for him), and partly because I'm not sure how much Williams outperforms Barber or Moreno by going forward.

2nd Question-

DeAngelo Williams.

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Don't trade D. Brown or S. Greene for Ricky. Those are the kind of moves that kill you in a dynasty league.

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I'm not sure where you got your data that Stewart converts a higher percentage of short yardage carries. I got this information from the Data Dominator, for situations this year with 1-3 yards to go:

Williams - 26 carries, 147 yards, 15 first downs, and 4 TDs (5.65 ypc)

Stewart - 24 carries, 97 yards, 14 first downs, and 3 TDs (4.04 ypc)

Technically, Stewart converted more first downs, 58.3% to 57.7%, but that's essentially a wash. And Williams was much more productive on his short yardage carries. Plus, Williams has 5 targets, 4 catches, 24 yards, and 4 first downs in those situations, while Stewart has 0 targets.

(Note that these results do not include last night's game.)

I looked only at 3rd and 4th down, 1-3 yards to go. I don't really consider something like 2nd-and-2 to be a "short yardage" situation, because the defense doesn't defend it as such- they have to be wary of the offense taking a shot deep content to face 3rd and 2 if they fail. On 3rd/4th down with 1-3 yards to go, Stewart averages more ypc (5.25 vs. 3.19) and converts a higher percentage (75% vs. 50%).

Based on what? I am not aware of any evidence that Williams cannot be a bellcow, whatever you mean exactly by that term. He excels in every game situation, and he has been durable. He's never been given the opportunity to touch the ball as often as Steven Jackson, but that doesn't mean he can't handle it. And Stewart has never been given that load, either, so he is equally unproven in that regard.

It was meant more as praise for Stewart than a criticism of Williams, but there are three reasons why I believe that Stewart is better suited to be a bellcow than Williams.

1) Measurables. EBF already went over this. DeAngelo Williams has first-round caliber measurables, and again, I wasn't meaning my comment as a criticism of Williams. It's just that Stewart's are on another plane entirely.

2) Skillset. My opinion is that Stewart simply has more tools in his belt, so to speak. DeAngelo has some wicked tools at his disposal, but it seems to me that he's lacking a bit in the "power" moveset department. He doesn't have Stewart's filthy stiffarm, he doesn't have Stewart's mass or leg drive (and the resulting ability to push a pile), he doesn't seem to have Stewart's willingness to lower his shoulder and finish off a run.

3) Coaching Staff Support. DeAngelo Williams was platooned with DeSean Foster... who, let's face it, was awful. When Foster left and Williams was set to inherit the job all to himself, the coaching staff went out and spent the #13 overall draft pick on Stewart. These guys see Williams every single day in practices, and they're fully aware of his skills and his limitations. One possible interpretation of those moves is that the coaching staff is leery of giving him the full load all to himself. True, another possible interpretation is that the coaching staff is filled with morons, but it raises a red flag, however small, that hasn't yet been raised for Stewart (not only is he platooning with a better back than Williams was to start his career, he's also getting a larger share of the platoon than Williams did to start his career, and he's performing better with his share than Williams did to start his career).

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Don't trade D. Brown or S. Greene for Ricky. Those are the kind of moves that kill you in a dynasty league.

Ricky is the perfect storm at RB this season. If you have a shot at a title, THAT could win it for you. Cue the "flags fly forever" stuff...Addai ain't gonna fade away anytime soon in Indy. Jones can't easily be cut after the numbers he's putting up this year, and Greene won't shove him out the door.

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Don't trade D. Brown or S. Greene for Ricky. Those are the kind of moves that kill you in a dynasty league.

Ricky is the perfect storm at RB this season. If you have a shot at a title, THAT could win it for you. Cue the "flags fly forever" stuff...Addai ain't gonna fade away anytime soon in Indy. Jones can't easily be cut after the numbers he's putting up this year, and Greene won't shove him out the door.
It would be a terrible trade. You don't give up a potential 4-5 year starter for a 32 year old RB who MIGHT give you one good year.

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Don't trade D. Brown or S. Greene for Ricky. Those are the kind of moves that kill you in a dynasty league.

Ricky is the perfect storm at RB this season. If you have a shot at a title, THAT could win it for you. Cue the "flags fly forever" stuff...Addai ain't gonna fade away anytime soon in Indy. Jones can't easily be cut after the numbers he's putting up this year, and Greene won't shove him out the door.
It would be a terrible trade. You don't give up a potential 4-5 year starter for a 32 year old RB who MIGHT give you one good year.
I disagree, but I play to win the game. Now. And Ricky Williams can put a team over the top.

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3) Coaching Staff Support. DeAngelo Williams was platooned with DeSean Foster... who, let's face it, was awful. When Foster left and Williams was set to inherit the job all to himself, the coaching staff went out and spent the #13 overall draft pick on Stewart. These guys see Williams every single day in practices, and they're fully aware of his skills and his limitations. One possible interpretation of those moves is that the coaching staff is leery of giving him the full load all to himself. True, another possible interpretation is that the coaching staff is filled with morons, but it raises a red flag, however small, that hasn't yet been raised for Stewart (not only is he platooning with a better back than Williams was to start his career, he's also getting a larger share of the platoon than Williams did to start his career, and he's performing better with his share than Williams did to start his career).

That's tough to use this as a critique of Williams though. Fox was notorious for playing S. Davis longer than he should have and then Foster longer than he should have. He's loyal to a fault. I don't know that you can read too much into that.

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Don't trade D. Brown or S. Greene for Ricky. Those are the kind of moves that kill you in a dynasty league.

Ricky is the perfect storm at RB this season. If you have a shot at a title, THAT could win it for you. Cue the "flags fly forever" stuff...Addai ain't gonna fade away anytime soon in Indy. Jones can't easily be cut after the numbers he's putting up this year, and Greene won't shove him out the door.
It would be a terrible trade. You don't give up a potential 4-5 year starter for a 32 year old RB who MIGHT give you one good year.
I disagree, but I play to win the game. Now. And Ricky Williams can put a team over the top.
:goodposting:I wonder if you guys will be saying this next week when he goes for 80 yards and no TDs. I've been playing dynasty long enough to recognize some common mistakes. Giving away a potential nucleus player like Shonn Greene or Donald Brown for a stopgap solution would be an utterly terrible decision. Sure, Greene and Brown might ultimately go the way of Chris Perry and Tatum Bell, but they also might go the way of Frank Gore and Tiki Barber. These aren't the type of players you want to give up for an expiring asset like Ricky.

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Don't trade D. Brown or S. Greene for Ricky. Those are the kind of moves that kill you in a dynasty league.

Ricky is the perfect storm at RB this season. If you have a shot at a title, THAT could win it for you. Cue the "flags fly forever" stuff...Addai ain't gonna fade away anytime soon in Indy. Jones can't easily be cut after the numbers he's putting up this year, and Greene won't shove him out the door.
It would be a terrible trade. You don't give up a potential 4-5 year starter for a 32 year old RB who MIGHT give you one good year.
I disagree, but I play to win the game. Now. And Ricky Williams can put a team over the top.
:goodposting:I wonder if you guys will be saying this next week when he goes for 80 yards and no TDs. I've been playing dynasty long enough to recognize some common mistakes. Giving away a potential nucleus player like Shonn Greene or Donald Brown for a stopgap solution would be an utterly terrible decision. Sure, Greene and Brown might ultimately go the way of Chris Perry and Tatum Bell, but they also might go the way of Frank Gore and Tiki Barber. These aren't the type of players you want to give up for an expiring asset like Ricky.
If either Brown or Greene are penciled in as Rb2's for you next year, your team's gonna suck. That means you're taking a CHANCE on having a stud in 2011, vs. getting a clear RB1 HORSE for the rest of this year. If you get niggling advantage from flex plays next year, well, it clouds things a LITTLE, but jeez, WIN NOW if you have the chance? You can get a rookie 1-4 fairly cheaply from all the threads I have seen here, and get a clone of those guys in ANY draft, and your window for them to produce may end up being a LOT shorter if your new draftee lucks into a starting job sooner.

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If either Brown or Greene are penciled in as Rb2's for you next year, your team's gonna suck.

I'm sure you would've said that about Rashard Mendenhall and Ray Rice at this time last season. Things move quickly in the NFL. Greene and Brown could easily be starting within 1-2 years.

That means you're taking a CHANCE on having a stud in 2011, vs. getting a clear RB1 HORSE for the rest of this year. If you get niggling advantage from flex plays next year, well, it clouds things a LITTLE, but jeez, WIN NOW if you have the chance? You can get a rookie 1-4 fairly cheaply from all the threads I have seen here, and get a clone of those guys in ANY draft, and your window for them to produce may end up being a LOT shorter if your new draftee lucks into a starting job sooner.

You're looking at this from a redraft standpoint. Dynasty leagues aren't redraft leagues. It's not just about this year or next year. It's about the next 4-5 years. Someone like Ricky will only help in the short term whereas someone like Brown or Greene has the potential to help for several years. IMO the downside of losing a potential nucleus player far outweighs the upside of having a good rental RB for one playoff run. It's important to weigh all of the variables when you make this kind of decision in a dynasty league. Yea, Ricky might help you win a title this year, but he might not. He might get hurt or he might not perform well down the stretch. Then you're left with a 32 year old RB rotting on your roster when you could've had a potential long term centerpiece like Greene or Brown instead. There's no way anyone will trade you either of those guys for Ricky once the season is over.The longview favors the prospect side of this deal. In dynasty it's usually best to go with the longview. Myopic slash-and-burn trades will quickly deplete your roster and leave the cupboard bare for future seasons. That strategy can work for a year or two, but it always catches up with the owners who practice it. I've seen it happen many times.

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If either Brown or Greene are penciled in as Rb2's for you next year, your team's gonna suck.

I'm sure you would've said that about Rashard Mendenhall and Ray Rice at this time last season. Things move quickly in the NFL. Greene and Brown could easily be starting within 1-2 years.

That means you're taking a CHANCE on having a stud in 2011, vs. getting a clear RB1 HORSE for the rest of this year. If you get niggling advantage from flex plays next year, well, it clouds things a LITTLE, but jeez, WIN NOW if you have the chance? You can get a rookie 1-4 fairly cheaply from all the threads I have seen here, and get a clone of those guys in ANY draft, and your window for them to produce may end up being a LOT shorter if your new draftee lucks into a starting job sooner.

You're looking at this from a redraft standpoint. Dynasty leagues aren't redraft leagues. It's not just about this year or next year. It's about the next 4-5 years. Someone like Ricky will only help in the short term whereas someone like Brown or Greene has the potential to help for several years. IMO the downside of losing a potential nucleus player far outweighs the upside of having a good rental RB for one playoff run. It's important to weigh all of the variables when you make this kind of decision in a dynasty league. Yea, Ricky might help you win a title this year, but he might not. He might get hurt or he might not perform well down the stretch. Then you're left with a 32 year old RB rotting on your roster when you could've had a potential long term centerpiece like Greene or Brown instead. There's no way anyone will trade you either of those guys for Ricky once the season is over.The longview favors the prospect side of this deal. In dynasty it's usually best to go with the longview. Myopic slash-and-burn trades will quickly deplete your roster and leave the cupboard bare for future seasons. That strategy can work for a year or two, but it always catches up with the owners who practice it. I've seen it happen many times.
That may be true, but first off, he'd still have a good nucleus of RBs (Moreno, DWill, Barber and whichever of Greene or D. Brown he keeps). I have also seen in dynasty leagues, owners constantly chasing potential at the expense of winning. Someone is going to win this year. I'm not suggesting he trade away all of his young RB studs for Ricky. I am suggesting, that if he thinks it will win it for him to trade 1 of his 5 young RBs to get a guy who is in a prime position right now to help win him a championship. Greene and D. Brown are far from proven commodities - so using the reverse logic of Ricky may or may not help you win now - they may or may not "grow up" to put up numbers like Ricky is and will over the next few weeks. Of course no one will trade you those guys back for Ricky after the season is over. But if after the season is over, he's won the title, isn't that the point? FF is not about having a great team on paper or a great team 3 years from now - it is also about winning titles. As I said, he shouldn't trade his whole roster away for a bunch of old guys. But 1 out of 5 to win the title is hardly trading away the future.

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If you are tied for first would a guy trade S. Greene or D. Brown for R. Williams

Starting Rb's Barber, D. William and K. Moreno

The guy who has R. Williams is in 2nd to last place and has terrible Rb's

2nd Question

As a D. Williams owner what do you have to give up to get J. Stewart

I would - because Championship banners fly forever. With DWill and Moreno you have two good young backs still (and whichever one of the two you mentioned that you don't trade).

As far as the 2nd question - I have no idea. It really depends on the owner who has him in your league.

Personally, I would trade Green for Ricky for those reasons, but I would try to keep Brown if possible. I think he's going to be a stud....

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No, it's not a redraft perspective. It's valuing a STUD THIS YEAR over a SHOT at having a stud break out two full seasons down the line. And knowing full well that the "shot" could end up being completely worthless. And knowing that a SHOT at getting a guy JUST AS GOOD will not be super expensive in the rookie draft next year.

Mendenhall and Rice had much lesser struggling talents blocking them a year ago than Greene and D. Brown have blocking them now. Addai and Th. Jones aren't going ANYWHERE next season. And if you're in the business of predicting injuries, well, roulette's a FUNNY game!

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If either Brown or Greene are penciled in as Rb2's for you next year, your team's gonna suck.

I'm sure you would've said that about Rashard Mendenhall and Ray Rice at this time last season. Things move quickly in the NFL. Greene and Brown could easily be starting within 1-2 years.

That means you're taking a CHANCE on having a stud in 2011, vs. getting a clear RB1 HORSE for the rest of this year. If you get niggling advantage from flex plays next year, well, it clouds things a LITTLE, but jeez, WIN NOW if you have the chance? You can get a rookie 1-4 fairly cheaply from all the threads I have seen here, and get a clone of those guys in ANY draft, and your window for them to produce may end up being a LOT shorter if your new draftee lucks into a starting job sooner.

You're looking at this from a redraft standpoint. Dynasty leagues aren't redraft leagues. It's not just about this year or next year. It's about the next 4-5 years. Someone like Ricky will only help in the short term whereas someone like Brown or Greene has the potential to help for several years. IMO the downside of losing a potential nucleus player far outweighs the upside of having a good rental RB for one playoff run. It's important to weigh all of the variables when you make this kind of decision in a dynasty league. Yea, Ricky might help you win a title this year, but he might not. He might get hurt or he might not perform well down the stretch. Then you're left with a 32 year old RB rotting on your roster when you could've had a potential long term centerpiece like Greene or Brown instead. There's no way anyone will trade you either of those guys for Ricky once the season is over.The longview favors the prospect side of this deal. In dynasty it's usually best to go with the longview. Myopic slash-and-burn trades will quickly deplete your roster and leave the cupboard bare for future seasons. That strategy can work for a year or two, but it always catches up with the owners who practice it. I've seen it happen many times.
One can certainly make the argument that it's worth mortgaging the future to win now (I don't believe it, myself), but I don't think it's fair to characterize this deal in this way.Look at his RBs.... he has Barber, DWill, Moreno, Donald Brown AND Shonne Green. Jeez - that's 3 of the top 5 RBs from this year, all young with bright futures.And, as far as Ricky, I personally think he's going to be a top 5 back the rest of the year and win a lot of championships. This is a run-first team. Ricky has looked GREAT this year and had significant value even with Ronnie in the mix. With Ronnie on the shelf, I think it's clear that Ricky will shoulder the load for the rest of the year - Hilliard and Sheets are not major threats for a singificant split. You can't totally write him off from a long-term perspective either - as I said he's looked great, quietly signed an extension, and there is some uncertainty with Ronnie's future who didn't sign an extension (to my knowledge) and now has a Lisc franc issue and we all saw that that meant for Kevin Jones. In any case, if your only young back is Green, then maybe you don't do the trade. But with a core that heading into the future, I think you can gamble on of those young guys for a good shot at a championship. And, for my money - and I say this as a Jets fan - of those guys I would send Green for Ricky. I think he'll be ok, but not great. Given the choice, I would MUCH rather have Donald Brown. Edited by corpcow

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See, he's not mortgaging his future by trading Shonn Greene. He's trading a part for a part.

I'd rather win this year, finish last next year and have the top pick in 2011 than finish 3rd this year, then fnieh 3rd next year.

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No, it's not a redraft perspective. It's valuing a STUD THIS YEAR over a SHOT at having a stud break out two full seasons down the line. And knowing full well that the "shot" could end up being completely worthless.

It's really a math question. Would you rather have a 90% chance at someone who will be good for the next 4 or 5 weeks or a 30-40% chance at someone who will be good for the next 3-5 years? For me the math obviously favors the prospects.

And knowing that a SHOT at getting a guy JUST AS GOOD will not be super expensive in the rookie draft next year.

This is irrelevant, really. The question is whether Ricky or Greene/Brown has more dynasty value. Whether or not you can get a comparable prospect in the rookie draft doesn't help us answer the question.

Mendenhall and Rice had much lesser struggling talents blocking them a year ago than Greene and D. Brown have blocking them now.

Hindsight is 20/20. McGahee and McClain played okay for the Ravens last year. Willie Parker was an established former Pro Bowler who was only 29 years old at the start of the season. Sure, it's easy to say these players were minor obstacles now that we have the benefit of hindsight, but it wasn't as if everyone expected Rice and Mendenhall to emerge as starters this season. If anything, people were skeptical (sort of like how you're skeptical about Brown and Greene). Thomas Jones will turn 32 next season. Joseph Addai is a mediocre player. It won't be remotely surprising if neither one of them is starting a year from now. It's not like we're talking about Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson here. These guys are not major long term obstacles.Like I said, myopia is not the way to run a team in dynasty leagues. Teams that dump massive long term value for a short term bump almost always live to regret it. Reminds me of a deal that went down in my first dynasty league several years ago. Reuben Droughns was at the peak of his powers in Denver and Larry Johnson was riding the pine in Kansas City. Someone traded Droughns for LJ and another owner in the league actually protested because he thought the guy sold Droughns too cheap. LOL. Fast forward a couple years and LJ is a consensus top 2 dynasty pick while Droughns is borderline worthless.Obviously this was a particularly gruesome example of the consequences of myopia in dynasty leagues, but the general principal is important to remember. There's a colossal downside when you dump young talent for some rental players so you can make a run at this title this year.

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No, it's not a redraft perspective. It's valuing a STUD THIS YEAR over a SHOT at having a stud break out two full seasons down the line. And knowing full well that the "shot" could end up being completely worthless.

It's really a math question. Would you rather have a 90% chance at someone who will be good for the next 4 or 5 weeks or a 30-40% chance at someone who will be good for the next 3-5 years? For me the math obviously favors the prospects.
Except, as I said, I don't think it's an absolute "math question" in this circumstance, EVEN if you assume that Ricky only has value for the next 4-5 weeks. He already has 3 rookies that I would say have a BETTER than 30-40% of being good, not ot mention someone who has a 90% chance of being good for 3-5 years. If you're looking at this in a context-free absolute, then it's probably not worth doing the deal. If you consider the totality of the circumstances, then it probably is.

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This is irrelevant, really. The question is whether Ricky or Greene/Brown has more dynasty value. Whether or not you can get a comparable prospect in the rookie draft doesn't help us answer the question.

Wrong. It's not a question of absolute dynasty value; it's a cost-benefit analysis. In this case, the benefit is that he likely wins his league (if you assume that Ricky will be a top 5 back down the stretch which I believe he will). The cost is a future prospect, but in this case he has a NUMBER of good young prospects.I said it repeatedly, but in THIS CIRCUMSTANCE, if you can trade Green for Ricky I would do it.

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3) Coaching Staff Support. DeAngelo Williams was platooned with DeSean Foster... who, let's face it, was awful. When Foster left and Williams was set to inherit the job all to himself, the coaching staff went out and spent the #13 overall draft pick on Stewart. These guys see Williams every single day in practices, and they're fully aware of his skills and his limitations. One possible interpretation of those moves is that the coaching staff is leery of giving him the full load all to himself. True, another possible interpretation is that the coaching staff is filled with morons, but it raises a red flag, however small, that hasn't yet been raised for Stewart (not only is he platooning with a better back than Williams was to start his career, he's also getting a larger share of the platoon than Williams did to start his career, and he's performing better with his share than Williams did to start his career).

That's tough to use this as a critique of Williams though. Fox was notorious for playing S. Davis longer than he should have and then Foster longer than he should have. He's loyal to a fault. I don't know that you can read too much into that.
It's not at all tough to use that as a critique of Williams. For all that "loyal to a fault" stuff, Stewart is getting a bigger piece of the RB pie than Williams did at his age, and he's doing it against stiffer competition to boot. Besides, I fail to see how drafting Stewart at #13 overall is an example of Fox being "loyal to a fault". I do see how it could be read as an example of Fox questioning Williams' ability to carry the full workload, though.

That may be true, but first off, he'd still have a good nucleus of RBs (Moreno, DWill, Barber and whichever of Greene or D. Brown he keeps). I have also seen in dynasty leagues, owners constantly chasing potential at the expense of winning. Someone is going to win this year. I'm not suggesting he trade away all of his young RB studs for Ricky. I am suggesting, that if he thinks it will win it for him to trade 1 of his 5 young RBs to get a guy who is in a prime position right now to help win him a championship. Greene and D. Brown are far from proven commodities - so using the reverse logic of Ricky may or may not help you win now - they may or may not "grow up" to put up numbers like Ricky is and will over the next few weeks. Of course no one will trade you those guys back for Ricky after the season is over. But if after the season is over, he's won the title, isn't that the point? FF is not about having a great team on paper or a great team 3 years from now - it is also about winning titles. As I said, he shouldn't trade his whole roster away for a bunch of old guys. But 1 out of 5 to win the title is hardly trading away the future.

I think this Ricky Williams discussion is getting very myopic, and a couple of major, major points need to be made.Point #1- Ricky Williams != Automatic Championship. It's not like trading for Williams guarantees a championship, and not doing so guarantees no championship. It's perfectly possible for the OP to not do the trade and still win it all. It's also perfectly possible for the OP to do the trade and still walk away with nothing. Ricky is just one piece of the puzzle, and a relatively small one at that. Some people are talking about Williams like he's the kind of acquisition that quadruples your chance of winning the title, but in reality he's the kind of guy that might take you from a 30% chance up to a 33% chance.Point #2- There's no guarantee that Ricky will stay healthy, or continue to produce at this level. He's 32 years old, and he hasn't averaged more than 14 carries a game since 2003. He's averaging 12 carries a game so far this year. This isn't like buying Tiki Barber in his last season, where he had an incredible recent track record of success (20+ carries per game in the previous two seasons, back to back top-5 finishes) and was virtually a sure thing. Ricky is a massive, massive, massive wildcard right now. Williams could get hurt. He could wear down, or slow down. He could wind up in an RBBC again as the season progresses, once the Dolphins have a chance to get Hilliard up to speed.Point #3- The guy in first place is bargaining from a position of power, while the guy in last place is bargaining from a position of weakness. It makes no sense for the guy in first place to cave to the guy in last place. The guy in first place is perfectly capable of winning a championship without Ricky, while the guy in last place gains NO BENEFIT from Ricky whatsoever- in fact, Ricky is probably making it harder for the last place guy to get the #1 overall draft pick. Point #4- Donald Brown was a consensus top-5 rookie draft pick. Shonn Green was usually picked in the 6-8 range, and probably slipped into a lot of top 5s. These are premium dynasty assets. Would anyone here trade a high first round draft pick for Ricky Williams? And if not, then why are you all so willing to trade the FRUITS of a high first-round draft pick for him?

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EBF, I greatly respect your opinions, and you've made many good points. You're more optimistic about Greene's and Brown's futures than I am if you're throwing a "90%" future value tag on them.

My basic point: I think Ricky Williams is a MONSTER for the rest of this year. He's a no-brainer starter on any fantasy team down the stretch. That's hard to pass up in ANY trade where you have a shot at a title.

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EBF, I greatly respect your opinions, and you've made many good points. You're more optimistic about Greene's and Brown's futures than I am if you're throwing a "90%" future value tag on them.My basic point: I think Ricky Williams is a MONSTER for the rest of this year. He's a no-brainer starter on any fantasy team down the stretch. That's hard to pass up in ANY trade where you have a shot at a title.

EBF wasn't putting a 90% tag on them, he was putting a 30-40% tag on them. He said that Ricky Williams had a 90% chance at being a stud for the next 5 weeks, and The Color Twins have a 30% chance at being studs for the next 5 years.

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3) Coaching Staff Support. DeAngelo Williams was platooned with DeSean Foster... who, let's face it, was awful. When Foster left and Williams was set to inherit the job all to himself, the coaching staff went out and spent the #13 overall draft pick on Stewart. These guys see Williams every single day in practices, and they're fully aware of his skills and his limitations. One possible interpretation of those moves is that the coaching staff is leery of giving him the full load all to himself. True, another possible interpretation is that the coaching staff is filled with morons, but it raises a red flag, however small, that hasn't yet been raised for Stewart (not only is he platooning with a better back than Williams was to start his career, he's also getting a larger share of the platoon than Williams did to start his career, and he's performing better with his share than Williams did to start his career).

That's tough to use this as a critique of Williams though. Fox was notorious for playing S. Davis longer than he should have and then Foster longer than he should have. He's loyal to a fault. I don't know that you can read too much into that.
It's not at all tough to use that as a critique of Williams. For all that "loyal to a fault" stuff, Stewart is getting a bigger piece of the RB pie than Williams did at his age, and he's doing it against stiffer competition to boot. Besides, I fail to see how drafting Stewart at #13 overall is an example of Fox being "loyal to a fault". I do see how it could be read as an example of Fox questioning Williams' ability to carry the full workload, though.

That may be true, but first off, he'd still have a good nucleus of RBs (Moreno, DWill, Barber and whichever of Greene or D. Brown he keeps). I have also seen in dynasty leagues, owners constantly chasing potential at the expense of winning. Someone is going to win this year. I'm not suggesting he trade away all of his young RB studs for Ricky. I am suggesting, that if he thinks it will win it for him to trade 1 of his 5 young RBs to get a guy who is in a prime position right now to help win him a championship. Greene and D. Brown are far from proven commodities - so using the reverse logic of Ricky may or may not help you win now - they may or may not "grow up" to put up numbers like Ricky is and will over the next few weeks. Of course no one will trade you those guys back for Ricky after the season is over. But if after the season is over, he's won the title, isn't that the point?

FF is not about having a great team on paper or a great team 3 years from now - it is also about winning titles. As I said, he shouldn't trade his whole roster away for a bunch of old guys. But 1 out of 5 to win the title is hardly trading away the future.

I think this Ricky Williams discussion is getting very myopic, and a couple of major, major points need to be made.

Point #1- Ricky Williams != Automatic Championship. It's not like trading for Williams guarantees a championship, and not doing so guarantees no championship. It's perfectly possible for the OP to not do the trade and still win it all. It's also perfectly possible for the OP to do the trade and still walk away with nothing. Ricky is just one piece of the puzzle, and a relatively small one at that. Some people are talking about Williams like he's the kind of acquisition that quadruples your chance of winning the title, but in reality he's the kind of guy that might take you from a 30% chance up to a 33% chance.

Point #2- There's no guarantee that Ricky will stay healthy, or continue to produce at this level. He's 32 years old, and he hasn't averaged more than 14 carries a game since 2003. He's averaging 12 carries a game so far this year. This isn't like buying Tiki Barber in his last season, where he had an incredible recent track record of success (20+ carries per game in the previous two seasons, back to back top-5 finishes) and was virtually a sure thing. Ricky is a massive, massive, massive wildcard right now. Williams could get hurt. He could wear down, or slow down. He could wind up in an RBBC again as the season progresses, once the Dolphins have a chance to get Hilliard up to speed.

Point #3- The guy in first place is bargaining from a position of power, while the guy in last place is bargaining from a position of weakness. It makes no sense for the guy in first place to cave to the guy in last place. The guy in first place is perfectly capable of winning a championship without Ricky, while the guy in last place gains NO BENEFIT from Ricky whatsoever- in fact, Ricky is probably making it harder for the last place guy to get the #1 overall draft pick.

Point #4- Donald Brown was a consensus top-5 rookie draft pick. Shonn Green was usually picked in the 6-8 range, and probably slipped into a lot of top 5s. These are premium dynasty assets. Would anyone here trade a high first round draft pick for Ricky Williams? And if not, then why are you all so willing to trade the FRUITS of a high first-round draft pick for him?

Well, for one, some might think last year's draft class was relatively weak - several good players; no great ones. And next year's won't be. (I don't know; pure speculation. Just throwing out a rationale).

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This is irrelevant, really. The question is whether Ricky or Greene/Brown has more dynasty value.

Whether or not you can get a comparable prospect in the rookie draft doesn't help us answer the question.

Wrong. It's not a question of absolute dynasty value; it's a cost-benefit analysis. In this case, the benefit is that he likely wins his league (if you assume that Ricky will be a top 5 back down the stretch which I believe he will). The cost is a future prospect, but in this case he has a NUMBER of good young prospects.

I said it repeatedly, but in THIS CIRCUMSTANCE, if you can trade Green for Ricky I would do it.

Don't make this trade under ANY CIRCUMSTANCE...........Classic sell high. Ricky will not sustain last nights performance thru the rest of the year.

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Well, for one, some might think last year's draft class was relatively weak - several good players; no great ones. And next year's won't be. (I don't know; pure speculation. Just throwing out a rationale).

If anything, next year's draft class is looking far weaker at RB than this year's. Besides, if that's your rationale, then trade Green or Brown for a future 1st and be done with it.

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