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I don't know about Jerod Mayo as i don't pay much attention to defensive players in the NCAA, but Jonathan Stewart was one of the top high school RBs in the nation, if not #1 when he graduated from high school. And Stewart showed immense promise every year he was at Oregon. My point is, the guy didn't come out of nowhere, he was pretty much expected to go into the NFL coming out of high school.
This is absolutely wrong. You don't need Jay Cutler tunnelvision to lock onto a receiver. Brees, like any other great quarterback (the aforementioned Cutler not included), throws to the open man. His number one read, Colston, isn't always open so he trickles down to the next reads. Meachem has demonstrated great ability to gain separation and as he moves into the top spot on Brees' read list, he'll get plenty of targets.That said, I think kremenull is definitely going overboard. Nicks is a great talent and should not be marginalized simply due to Meachem man-love.And Jonathan Stewart? You're going to claim credit for finding him? Wow..
Except Holmes has topped out and IMO has regressed this year despite an amazing year by Roth. Holmes has only scored three times in 70 receptions. That doesn't make me excited. I think his value went way up because of the SB last year but I don't think he is a top10 WR and I don't think he ever will. Meachem strikes me as having greater upside than Holmes.
kremenull scouted him in his Pop Warner league.
So what you're saying is that the Saints offense cannot support roughly 160 or so receptions between it's Top 2 targets? I know that it can, and I believe that the Top 2 targets going forward are Colston and Meachem. If you differ in the assessment of the passing game supporting the receptions and/or whether Meachem is in line for Top 2 hierarchy there, then that is quite alright. But that is part of where I am drawing my conclusion.
I see as many if not more "misses" than "hits". I'm not saying that as an insult as that would be the case for any of us, but if you want to throw out how you had Meachem ranked as WR 39 in your dynasty rankings to show how astute you are why not mention having Reggie Bush as RB 2?The point isn't that I think you're dead wrong on liking Meachem. As I said I like him also, he just might be the most talented WR in New Orleans and is starting to "get it". My point is that when you throw out such hyperbole "Nicks can't make anywhere near the type of dynamic plays as Meachem" it takes away from the substance of what you are trying to say. I realize it's your schtick (unless you're just that high on yourself) so not slamming you for it, just think it clouds the dicussion.
Holmes is top 10 in the NFL in receiving yards. He's already an every week must-start in PPR leagues. Meachem might have a greater upside, but his probability of reaching it is not nearly as high as the probability of Holmes sustaining his current level of production. Assigning a value to a player isn't as simple as looking at his upside. As I mentioned earlier, not every player who flashes talent puts it all together. Not every player who puts it all together keeps it together. Any attempt to determine Meachem's value must factor in the probability that he's merely a mirage like so many before him. It has taken him three seasons to reach a basic level of competence. Let's not pretend he's Calvin Johnson here. There is a very real chance that his career will turn out like Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Donte Stallworth, Ashley Lelie, or worse.I recognize Meachem's upside. I don't blindly assume he's going to fulfill it.
You're seen the behind the back catch, yes?Allow me to expand then on what I am saying here. Let's separate ability from production. I see Nicks as one of those guys who comes into the league who has been schooled in the nuances of the pro-style offense, a 4 year college player, and a guy with good but not elite physical talent. He fits the profile of a guy who often "hits the gound running" to be an early contributor. But from what I've seen, I simply don't see much special ability from him on the field. A whole lot of his production to-date can be attributed to plenty of garbage-time stats and at least one fluke play ala Brandon Stokely and the Broncos. So when I say he is maxed out on what he is showing, he seems to be a guy who at his best will be a 70-80 rec @ 13.0-14.3 ypr guy, periodically threatening double-digit TDs. Yes, I do not believe that his current 16.9 ypr is sustainable for him over the long haul, season-long nor career.......and this is best-case not factoring in the other quality guys on his roster that he will be sharing snaps/receptions with - Steve Smith (Manning's possession guy and trusted target) and Manningham ( a very talented guy in his own right) - plus the fact that the Giants' attack isn't anywhere near on par with the Saints' attack. If he reaches these numbers, fantasy owners should be thrilled.Whereas Meachem on the other hand has a potentially top-flight outlook as far as ypr. He is a dynamic outside playmaker of which there aren't a whole lot. Guys who can sustain 17+ ypr even as their receptions increase......the Calvins, Randy Mosses, DeSean Jacksons of the league. And no, Meachem is not as good as some of those guys, but I'm simply talking about sustaining an elite ypr and consistent TD production even as his reception total increases. In that offense, with a QB as criminally accurate as Brees, dynamic WRs are ultra-deadly......See Moss in N.E. and to a lesser extent V-Jax in S.D. with Rivers and an even lesser extent DeSean in Philly with McNabb (an even lesser extent since McNabb is not on par with Brees/Rivers). So I'd put Meachem's best-case as a 65-75 rec @ 17+ ypr guy, annually threatening double-digit TDs. Would anyone be surprised to see a V-Jax circa '08 season from Meachem next year? 60 rec 1100 yds, 9 TDs....And I do like Nicks, this is not knocking him at all, but the on-field ability that he's shown (not to be confused with production), IMO, isn't likely to transcend his game to an upper-echelon level whereas Meachem's on-field ability (plus his golden situation) has a better chance of transcending his game....And lastly, I don't consider Devery nor L.Moore nor any of the Saints' WRs outside of Colston as a threat to Meachem's ascension.Nicks isn't a full-time starter and doesn't even have a full season under his belt. How has he maxed out his potential on the field?
Not to mention, his early season swoon corresponds directly to his wrist injury, which Holmes stated was the reason for his abnormal number of drops. Since he's been healthy, he's put up good to great numbers in 8 of 9 games. That's pretty consistent--and the sort of consistency that Meachem, like Colston, is likely to lack even if he secures a greater share of targets.
What makes Meachem likely to lack consistency if he secures a greater share of targets? His catch percentage is 74.4% despite the fact that he runs a lot of deep routes, and he has 0 drops on the season. To me, it appears he has been very consistent with limited opportunities... not sure why he would stop being consistent with more opportunities.
Yep! I certainly not taking any credit for discovering him, but I recall in just about all of the posts re the '08 draft (mock drafts and discussion posts around Sept.-Oct. '07), hardly anybody was mentioning Stewart as a 1st Rd draft pick. I point this out just as an illustration to many of you who want to keep thinking that I don't know what I'm talking about. I'm not looking for validation regarding my Meachem projections, just that it might be of some value to consider a highly optimistic perspective........but not unrealistic.
I liked Britt coming out of college, and then I read this and I liked him even more. Kenny Britt WriteUpThen I was reading up on his working with Rod Smith pre-draft.. and then I was reading up on how in between rookie camp and training camp.. instead of going home, he was staying in Tennessee working with Rod Smith again on his hands and route running.
You are correct, if people didn't like McFadden they were drafting Stewart.. it was 1a/1b.
The kid has excellent hands and is a very talented player, no doubt. Just as another point of reference for consideration here. Last season, even well into the offseason, there was a strong majority opinion that Eddie Royal was better (fantasy and/or real) than DeSean Jackson. For whatever reasons that people held that opinion, I never considered that to be the case at any point. Why? Because no matter what Royal did on the field, I trusted my evaluation that DeSean was much more dynamic of a player than Royal and when things are pretty close (situation, QB, performance), invariably I will almost always lean towards the more dynamic, explosive player to eventually be better and more productive long-term. Is this an exact science methodology, of course not. But as one of my metrics it does serve a meaningful purpose. Again, it wasn't that I was knocking Royal and his ability and production, but I just didn't let the production edge that Royal had over DeSean impact my final conclusion determined from the initial evaluation and re-evaluation of the two players.You're seen the behind the back catch, yes?Allow me to expand then on what I am saying here. Let's separate ability from production. I see Nicks as one of those guys who comes into the league who has been schooled in the nuances of the pro-style offense, a 4 year college player, and a guy with good but not elite physical talent. He fits the profile of a guy who often "hits the gound running" to be an early contributor. But from what I've seen, I simply don't see much special ability from him on the field. A whole lot of his production to-date can be attributed to plenty of garbage-time stats and at least one fluke play ala Brandon Stokely and the Broncos. So when I say he is maxed out on what he is showing, he seems to be a guy who at his best will be a 70-80 rec @ 13.0-14.3 ypr guy, periodically threatening double-digit TDs. Yes, I do not believe that his current 16.9 ypr is sustainable for him over the long haul, season-long nor career.......and this is best-case not factoring in the other quality guys on his roster that he will be sharing snaps/receptions with - Steve Smith (Manning's possession guy and trusted target) and Manningham ( a very talented guy in his own right) - plus the fact that the Giants' attack isn't anywhere near on par with the Saints' attack. If he reaches these numbers, fantasy owners should be thrilled.Whereas Meachem on the other hand has a potentially top-flight outlook as far as ypr. He is a dynamic outside playmaker of which there aren't a whole lot. Guys who can sustain 17+ ypr even as their receptions increase......the Calvins, Randy Mosses, DeSean Jacksons of the league. And no, Meachem is not as good as some of those guys, but I'm simply talking about sustaining an elite ypr and consistent TD production even as his reception total increases. In that offense, with a QB as criminally accurate as Brees, dynamic WRs are ultra-deadly......See Moss in N.E. and to a lesser extent V-Jax in S.D. with Rivers and an even lesser extent DeSean in Philly with McNabb (an even lesser extent since McNabb is not on par with Brees/Rivers). So I'd put Meachem's best-case as a 65-75 rec @ 17+ ypr guy, annually threatening double-digit TDs. Would anyone be surprised to see a V-Jax circa '08 season from Meachem next year? 60 rec 1100 yds, 9 TDs....And I do like Nicks, this is not knocking him at all, but the on-field ability that he's shown (not to be confused with production), IMO, isn't likely to transcend his game to an upper-echelon level whereas Meachem's on-field ability (plus his golden situation) has a better chance of transcending his game....And lastly, I don't consider Devery nor L.Moore nor any of the Saints' WRs outside of Colston as a threat to Meachem's ascension.Nicks isn't a full-time starter and doesn't even have a full season under his belt. How has he maxed out his potential on the field?
Of course then I realized the opening posts are from 2006. Methinks it's time for a new thread, this is a great annual topic.
Nah, it's nice to have it ongoing.
Dated Sept. 20, 2007http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7379523
Right above yours (about 30 posts up):http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7378695Dated Sept. 20, 2007http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7379523
Not much, if any, hype regarding Stewart at that date in here IIRC. I don't think I am nor was confused.......
You're also the guy who told us that Steve Slaton is more talented than Terrell Davis and that Josh Morgan was a substantially better receiver than Michael Crabtree. Sure, you might have had some big hits (although you're just one of hundreds who have been high on Stewart since the beginning), but you've also had some big, big, big misses. Which is a problem when you're speaking in such absolutes that there's no way for you to mitigate your misses.I've seen you say multiple times that your track record speaks for itself, but so far the track record I've seen is far more bad than good (and it also has a disproportionate number of DISASTROUS mistakes compared to garden variety no-big-deal mistakes). Which is fine- we can't all be experts. I know I'm not. I'm learning and making it up as I go, and I freely admit that. This is why I feel like it's so important for me to objectively go back and look at my track record and evaluate my processes to see if I have any that are consistently getting me into trouble. I'd highly recommend to everyone else that they do the same. If you did, I think you'd find that your process where you don't temper your own opinion in the SLIGHTEST with what a lot of really smart people think has been getting you into a lot of trouble this season.
I was discussing Roethlisberger a couple of months ago, and I said that the most surprising thing about this season is that it's been a very good year despite a massive regression in TD%. Part of the reason why I liked Ben is that he was option 1, 2, and 3 in the red zone. Now, since then he's picked his TD rate up, but a lot of Holmes' lack of TDs is a result of Ben slowing down in the red zone. And even when Ben's at his best, Holmes isn't much of a red zone threat. There's not really anything wrong with that- Holmes will get his TDs over the top just like most WRs do. The only guys who are consistent double digit TD threats are Fitzgerald and Moss (and I think VJax can join them). Other than that, you're looking at 6-8 TDs a year with the occasional 10-TD season thrown in for good measure. Holmes isn't losing much to his peers with his TD struggles.Like I said, Holmes is never going to be a fantasy WR1... but he's going to be a reliable WR2 for a long, long time, and that holds plenty of value. Besides, what are the odds that Meachem ever becomes a fantasy WR1, anyway?
By keeping it in the same thread, we can use the thread search feature to go back over 3 years of player discussions. I would be very, very, very opposed to starting a new dynasty thread.
Dated Sept. 20, 2007http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7379523
Not much, if any, hype regarding Stewart at that date in here IIRC. I don't think I am nor was confused.......
Interesting.kremenull said:
Yep kremenull, nobody else was touting J Stewart back in September 2007.Also, keep in mind that in September nobody knew if Stewart was turning pro or not.EBF said:
Fantasy wise. He's definitely NFL #1 material.
pretty sure nicks came out after his junior season. i don't want to put words in your mouth, but you seem to be alluding to his relatively advanced development and refinement (for a rookie). does that revise your opinion (he is maxed out with little upside... so to speak), since you were basing it on the assumption he was at north carolina for four years, not his actual three?my other question is, has meachem scored in many ways other than fly patterns/go routes. brees spreads the ball around a lot... meachem benefits from the fact that defenses have to concern themselves with colston, henderson, shockey, bush at times (though he hasn't done much lately), & even pierre thomas has good hands for a RB. that puts a lot of pressure on defenses to cover everybody, meachem has been getting open deep a lot, & brees is finding him. but he has scored a lot of TDs with relatively few catches of late. he may continue to be a prolific scorer, but his recent score/reception ratio is probably unsustainable.it is hard to make a living out of catching bombs for a living (chris henry)... he could turn into a special player, but some of the players that were referenced in comparison upthread, like moss, are not only great athletes, but can run routes. i think nicks may ALREADY be a better route runner and more technically sound/proficient... and meachem is in his third year. it is a bit counterintuitive and an oblique approach to explain away nicks success (& i acknowledge you acknowledged nicks is a good player, & i do the same on meachem
) by chalking it up to being a four year player (the fact that he was a three year player being incidental to this point). wouldn't it be more straightforward to commend his success, such as it is, given that it is relatively rare for rookie WRs to look this good this early (though crabtree, maclin, britt & nicks all have looked good, so maybe this platitude is eroding... or will this year be subsequently proven an aberration?).BTW, some/many scouts described nicks as being one of the more pro-ready prospects with a relatively complete game, so all this sort of falls into the category of information we already possessed.i can think of instances where WRs showed well as rookies but didn't do appreciably much better after (eddie kennison, chris sanders?, michael clayton), but i'm guessing more commonly it is a precursor to greater future success.without looking it up, nicks has 5-6 TDs, with four games remaining... despite not starting, and he had a foot or ankle injury early (edit/add - hurt game one and didn't play again until week four... so missed two games and part of a third, i think). i'm not so sure he wouldn't have had a chance at 10 TDs THIS season if he had started from game one and been completely healthy. that is rare stuff for any rookie WR (didn't desean have like 2-3 receiving TDs last year?). so, imo, sure, he could be a threat to do that (DD TDs) or get close on a regular basis, if he tracks as expected to start at some point, possibly as soon as 2010. manningham hasn't scored in like 4-6 weeks (i agree with you he does have talent, just imo nicks has more upside). smith has had an amazing year... i think it is safe to say NOBODY foresaw the kind of season he has had. but there are probably still some scouts that think nicks has the most upside, & fits the profile better of an eventual #1 WR on that team. even if smith and nicks are 1A/1B, this formula has had a lot of success in IND, ARI, CIN, etc.meachem MIGHT become #2 WR or even #1 WR... but clearly the saints have more weapons in the pass game. so if meachem doesn't seize a starting job, & even if he does, there may be some games where he is competing with all the other WRs, TEs (i forgot dave thomas) and RBs for receptions. i'll address a point brought up earlier, about watching these players (and this isn't specifically addressed to this quote, but more addressing a principle to the thread at large). i haven't seen nicks play a lot, i have seen him play some. but more important than watching lots of games (though it is probably helpful to watch SOME, not sure what that minimum might be, probably different for everybody), is the quality of our observations. if somebody claimed to read a million books, but produced a piece of writing that was non-descript, we wouldn't give them brownie points for their preliminary research. if on the other hand, a less well read individual produced more cogent and incisive prose, that would be more likely to get our attention, and deservedly so. the proof is in the pudding. either our observations/insights are relevant and useful, or they aren't, no matter how we arrived at them. in malcolm gladwell's blink (of tipping point and outliers fame), he reports on a tool called thin slicing, where some adepts can assign doctors to categories of more or less likely to get sued for malpratice... based on a second or so snippet of recorded voice (keying on tone, i think)... or which couples are more or less likely to get a divorce, with very little time spent on analysis. but it is highly specialized, formalized, STRUCTURED observation, and seems to yield information of a longer term & more portentuous nature (we can speculate there is a hierarchy of signal/communicational import context "markers" in any exchange, with some more important than others, that are no doubt in most cases processed at levels below conscious awareness... poker players are trained in detecting tells that would escape many). maybe scouting isn't an exact parallel here, but i think there are some similarities. how long would a scout need to watch peterson or calvin johnson to tell you they were going to be good? 
* to return to the subject of traits/attributes indicative of future success, i remember matt waldman raving about how advanced nicks was in his skill level, which was highlighted in a matchup against asomugha when they played the raiders.another - tackle breaking ability. without comparing nicks directly to boldin in this context (maps are useful because they point out certain landmarks and their approximate, proportionate relation to each other, not because of an exact correspondence... a map as big as the US would be hard to fold into your glovebox 
), that trait has been a big element in his success. nicks flashed this ability in college (and looks the part, he has thick thighs, contact balance, etc.), and was praised for it by scouts. not sure this is the case with meachem? he has scored a lot of TDs when he was running crazy free in the deep secondary. maybe that will continue. but i think any comprehensive look at nicks projection would be incomplete and therefor remiss if it didn't take into account this ability. he doesn't need to be as fast as meachem if he is better at breaking tackles.
Obviously people can evaluate talent differently. I don't think Meachem has "achieved a basic level of competence" as you say--he seems far better than that. And I am just not that impressed by Holmes because of his inability to make big plays this year despite many targets. I would not trade Meachem for Holmes, who could also turn out like the players you mention.
Uhhh....
Holmes ranks 6th among all NFL players in receiving yards per game. If you consider this an "inability to make big plays this year despite many targets" then you've got higher standards than any critic I've ever met. By most standards he's having a borderline Pro Bowl caliber season. I can't imagine how anyone could view this as a disappointment.As for your suggestion that Holmes could also turn out like the players I mentioned, I find it unlikely. He has been a steady contributor since the moment he stepped on the field for Pittsburgh. Over 57 games he has averaged 64.3 receiving yards per game. His numbers are up considerably this season. Maybe it's a sign of things to come. Maybe he'll regress to his more modest career average. Either way, it seems very unlikely that he'll spontaneously turn to useless crap after four solid seasons in the NFL. Trading Holmes for Meachem would be laughably bad. There's really no margin for error with this kind of deal since Holmes is already what Meachem aspires to become (a reliable weekly starter). Taking on a huge amount of risk for a slight potential gain in value = bad bad bad.
Agreed. Holmes for Meachem is a losing bet. It'd be like if you bet $10 on a spin of the wheel that resulted in a 10% chance at $15 and a 90% chance at $2. Yes, there's a chance that if you make that bet you'll wind up looking like a genius, walking away with $15 for a mere $10 investment... but over the long run, bets like those are a good way to bankrupt your team.Right now, Holmes is a reliable fantasy WR2. He's on pace for 1300 yards on 144 targets this season, and he has upside over what he's currently producing. With 6 or 7 TDs instead of the 4 he's on pace for (an incredibly obtainable figure), you're looking at an incredibly high-end WR2. And he's got pretty much no bust risk- he's got 4 years of consistently high-end production, he's handled tougher coverages, and he's playing with a franchise QB in his prime. Like I said, Santonio is as close of a thing to a lock as there is in fantasy football. He is going to be a WR2 for years to come. In order for you to walk away a winner from a Holmes-for-Meachem trade, Meachem would need to become a fantasy WR1. Is it possible? Of course it's POSSIBLE, but he'd have to wrest targets away from both Colston *AND* Henderson to pull it off. That's an awfully hard task for a guy who has 59 CAREER TARGETS (in 3 years!). And even if he does become the WR1 in New Orleans, what then? In Colston's 3 healthy seasons as the WR1 in NO, he's finished 14th, 8th, and 7th. If Meachem became the WR1 in New Orleans, he might wind up ranking 4-6 slots higher than Santonio. So *IF* Meachem gets more consistent targets and *IF* Meachem beats out a proven stud in Colston and *IF* Meachem maintains something resembling his rate stats once he becomes the focus of defenses and *IF* Meachem maintains something resembling his rate stats in the face of a larger workload, then he'll rank a bare handful of slots ahead of Holmes. Personally, I'm not a big fan of high-risk, low-reward trades.Uhhh....
Three TDs on 70 receptions is not a sign of big play ability. And it isn't like he doesn't have a QB who isn't capable of getting him the ball in position to make big plays. I am not saying he isn't a good WR; I am saying I think he has topped out and while his production is great in PPR leagues this year I wonder how he will do when Ward is gone (I wouldn't be surprised if he regresses). I think Meachem's 8 TDs on only 29 receptions pretty much demonstrates his greater play making ability.But it isn't all statistics; it is what I see when I watch them play. I know this won't be popular because people see the Superbowl and the star of the Superbowl enjoys accolades beyond the player's merit for a long time.Uhhh....Holmes ranks 6th among all NFL players in receiving yards per game. If you consider this an "inability to make big plays this year despite many targets" then you've got higher standards than any critic I've ever met. By most standards he's having a borderline Pro Bowl caliber season. I can't imagine how anyone could view this as a disappointment.As for your suggestion that Holmes could also turn out like the players I mentioned, I find it unlikely. He has been a steady contributor since the moment he stepped on the field for Pittsburgh. Over 57 games he has averaged 64.3 receiving yards per game. His numbers are up considerably this season. Maybe it's a sign of things to come. Maybe he'll regress to his more modest career average. Either way, it seems very unlikely that he'll spontaneously turn to useless crap after four solid seasons in the NFL. Trading Holmes for Meachem would be laughably bad. There's really no margin for error with this kind of deal since Holmes is already what Meachem aspires to become (a reliable weekly starter). Taking on a huge amount of risk for a slight potential gain in value = bad bad bad.
TD production is much more volatile (year-over-year) than targets, receptions, and yards.Three TDs on 70 receptions is not a sign of big play ability. And it isn't like he doesn't have a QB who isn't capable of getting him the ball in position to make big plays. I am not saying he isn't a good WR; I am saying I think he has topped out and while his production is great in PPR leagues this year I wonder how he will do when Ward is gone (I wouldn't be surprised if he regresses). I think Meachem's 8 TDs on only 29 receptions pretty much demonstrates his greater play making ability.But it isn't all statistics; it is what I see when I watch them play. I know this won't be popular because people see the Superbowl and the star of the Superbowl enjoys accolades beyond the player's merit for a long time.Uhhh....
Trading Holmes for Meachem would be laughably bad. There's really no margin for error with this kind of deal since Holmes is already what Meachem aspires to become (a reliable weekly starter). Taking on a huge amount of risk for a slight potential gain in value = bad bad bad.
A TD does not equal a big play. When a RB makes a 1 yard run up the middle for the TD, is that a 'big play'? Meachem had 2 receptions for 10 yards and 2 TDs a couple games ago. On neither of his receptions did he do anything besides run into the endzone, turn and face Brees, and Brees just threw it at Meachem who had no defender on him each time. I don't see how that is classified as a 'big play'. The real problem i have with Meachem is he isn't a hands catcher. When you look at all the WRs out there who are consistent week to week, the large majority of those WRs catch the ball with their hands. Eventually as teams figure out they need to cover Meachem, he's going to have corner's on him who are gonna make a play on the ball before it reaches Meachem's stomach for him to make a catch. If i was a Meachem owner i'd try and trade him for Miles Austin, Santonio Holmes, or Hakeem Nicks, or someone like that.az_prof said:Three TDs on 70 receptions is not a sign of big play ability. And it isn't like he doesn't have a QB who isn't capable of getting him the ball in position to make big plays. I am not saying he isn't a good WR; I am saying I think he has topped out and while his production is great in PPR leagues this year I wonder how he will do when Ward is gone (I wouldn't be surprised if he regresses). I think Meachem's 8 TDs on only 29 receptions pretty much demonstrates his greater play making ability.But it isn't all statistics; it is what I see when I watch them play. I know this won't be popular because people see the Superbowl and the star of the Superbowl enjoys accolades beyond the player's merit for a long time.EBF said:Uhhh....az_prof said:
Maybe. But as Parcells says, you are what your record says you are. We KNOW Holmes is a WR2. We don't know Meachem is, and there is a lot to suggest he may not be. At the end of the day, that suggests <>az_prof said:Three TDs on 70 receptions is not a sign of big play ability. And it isn't like he doesn't have a QB who isn't capable of getting him the ball in position to make big plays. I am not saying he isn't a good WR; I am saying I think he has topped out and while his production is great in PPR leagues this year I wonder how he will do when Ward is gone (I wouldn't be surprised if he regresses). I think Meachem's 8 TDs on only 29 receptions pretty much demonstrates his greater play making ability.But it isn't all statistics; it is what I see when I watch them play. I know this won't be popular because people see the Superbowl and the star of the Superbowl enjoys accolades beyond the player's merit for a long time.EBF said:Uhhh....az_prof said:
Good observation. I knew he would fall back on the low TD count as support of his argument. It's a weak point. TDs are more volatile than yards and catches. A fifty yard catch that happens on your own 20 yard line isn't a TD. An eight yard catch that happens on your opponent's 7 yard line is a TD. One of these is a big play and the other isn't. I'll let you guess which. Last week Holmes had a 57 yard catch-and-run against the Raiders. He was (barely) tackled on the 3 yard line. Mendenhall took it in for a score on the very next play. This is an example of variance. Had the same pass play happened on Pitt's 45 instead of their 40, it would've been a long TD for Holmes and Ben instead of a short TD for Rashard. Things like this can happen several times per season, which is why a player's TD total can be deceptive.
Don't hold your breath on that one.
We all have to pick and choose our favorites and hope the potential plays out. With limited roster space and Harvin already on my roster I cut Sidney Rice after holding on to him for a couple of years. Rice has out performed other WR's that were rated higher than him on F&L's and other boards earlier this year; including Roy Williams (eventually dropped as well). I liked Rice quite a bit but it appeared that he was buried on the depth chart behind Berrian and would not see the touches necessary for his value to be optimized (see Schianco, ADP, Taylor and Harvin). Not many trusted Favre as well. It looked like Williams was going to get the looks from Romo and had a chance to be pretty productive. I know many didn't feel this way but a lot of trusted sources did. I had also acquired Williams as part of a trade which added to his "value". So ultimately I reluctantly dropped Rice.
Trust me, it's not about the SB MVP. Everything I wrote in that post from 91 pages ago still applies (well, except for the part about him being 24). He's still young, he's still explosive, he's still playing lights out this season, he still has a great rapport with Big Ben, and he's already become an even bigger part of the offense going forward. And there's even a bit of room for him to become a bigger part still (albeit not much bigger).az_prof said:
I don't think there's anything controversial about that. Where the disagreement is arising is over what constitutes a reasonable price. Some have offered up Santonio Holmes as an example of a reasonable price. What, to you, is a reasonable price to pay for Meachem? Looking at F&L's dynasty list, who are the 4 highest-rated WRs that you'd trade for Meachem straight up? Who are the 4 lowest-rated WRs that you would trade Meachem for straight up?
Did you read my comment? Are you saying don't hold my breath that he'll be better than Ashley Lelie?
The latest rankings I see from F&L have Meachem at #32. I have him on my dynasty team, and I would not trade him straight up for any of these guys ranked ahead of him on F&L's list: Britt, Nicks, Maclin, Edwards, Ward, Evans, Cotchery, and Santana Moss. There is no one I see lower than Meachem on F&L's list who I'd rather have than Meachem.
What do I have to add? Not much, but wanted to point at the scoreboard from an old argument. I enjoy your posts, and next time you hit one out of the park, I wish you'd let people know. You seem to be playing contrarian a lot lately.You have a much higher opinion of Chad 85's current value than I do. My opinion of his future value is to dump him to a contender who thinks he's gotta win now, but most people in my leagues are even as dubious about his long term value as I am. Another ***** in his dynasty value ranking -- what interesting things is he going to fetch in a trade? Not much, from what I've seen.
All well said and everything. But frankly, I often make my decisions on who I believe is the better player. And in this case, and many others, I do not care what others think or follow any consensus ranks or standard protocol/guidelines on how to trade. Some people use a feel for the timing being right in anticipation of a major breakout by a given player, and in this case, I am already sold that Meachem is better than Holmes, even though his numbers have not caught up yet to reflect it. Combined with the more proficient passing game, I'd line up my chips for the buy if I didn't own him already, and Holmes is a very solid player, but like Beyonce profoundly sings........"Don't ever get to thinking, that you're IRREPLACEABLE"...... And yes Bob Magaw, I like your contributions my man, although we disagree here....SSOG said:Agreed. Holmes for Meachem is a losing bet. It'd be like if you bet $10 on a spin of the wheel that resulted in a 10% chance at $15 and a 90% chance at $2. Yes, there's a chance that if you make that bet you'll wind up looking like a genius, walking away with $15 for a mere $10 investment... but over the long run, bets like those are a good way to bankrupt your team.Right now, Holmes is a reliable fantasy WR2. He's on pace for 1300 yards on 144 targets this season, and he has upside over what he's currently producing. With 6 or 7 TDs instead of the 4 he's on pace for (an incredibly obtainable figure), you're looking at an incredibly high-end WR2. And he's got pretty much no bust risk- he's got 4 years of consistently high-end production, he's handled tougher coverages, and he's playing with a franchise QB in his prime. Like I said, Santonio is as close of a thing to a lock as there is in fantasy football. He is going to be a WR2 for years to come. In order for you to walk away a winner from a Holmes-for-Meachem trade, Meachem would need to become a fantasy WR1. Is it possible? Of course it's POSSIBLE, but he'd have to wrest targets away from both Colston *AND* Henderson to pull it off. That's an awfully hard task for a guy who has 59 CAREER TARGETS (in 3 years!). And even if he does become the WR1 in New Orleans, what then? In Colston's 3 healthy seasons as the WR1 in NO, he's finished 14th, 8th, and 7th. If Meachem became the WR1 in New Orleans, he might wind up ranking 4-6 slots higher than Santonio. So *IF* Meachem gets more consistent targets and *IF* Meachem beats out a proven stud in Colston and *IF* Meachem maintains something resembling his rate stats once he becomes the focus of defenses and *IF* Meachem maintains something resembling his rate stats in the face of a larger workload, then he'll rank a bare handful of slots ahead of Holmes. Personally, I'm not a big fan of high-risk, low-reward trades.EBF said:Uhhh....az_prof said:Holmes ranks 6th among all NFL players in receiving yards per game. If you consider this an "inability to make big plays this year despite many targets" then you've got higher standards than any critic I've ever met. By most standards he's having a borderline Pro Bowl caliber season. I can't imagine how anyone could view this as a disappointment.As for your suggestion that Holmes could also turn out like the players I mentioned, I find it unlikely. He has been a steady contributor since the moment he stepped on the field for Pittsburgh. Over 57 games he has averaged 64.3 receiving yards per game. His numbers are up considerably this season. Maybe it's a sign of things to come. Maybe he'll regress to his more modest career average. Either way, it seems very unlikely that he'll spontaneously turn to useless crap after four solid seasons in the NFL. Trading Holmes for Meachem would be laughably bad. There's really no margin for error with this kind of deal since Holmes is already what Meachem aspires to become (a reliable weekly starter). Taking on a huge amount of risk for a slight potential gain in value = bad bad bad.
, Meachem does more than catch bombs for TDs, although that is a very distinguishing, and not so common great trait to have, but he also has several red-zone TDs where he was the primary option, running back of the endzone crosses and fades as well. I do not agree with the assertion that Nicks is superior in route-running, as Meachem has grown by leaps and bounds in this area and many people may still be thinking of previous reports and games where he was a healthy scratch due to not being ready and all, but right now, this kid is doing it all.......I can't wait for the Dallas-N.O. game so the masses can see what is going on here in N.O....... Good stuff though, I'll be moving on regarding this topic as there's nothing left for me to say......at this juncture, that is... 
That just goes to show you that different pairs of insightful eyes sometimes see similar things. Often, and in this particular case for sure, I don't even read through replies before I post my own........Also, I know that both EBF and I both reside on the West Coast so we see many of the same games I'm sure......the East Coast bias was running pretty high that far in advance of the draft (6+ months) and Stewart wasn't getting much love nationally.....Right above yours (about 30 posts up):http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7378695Dated Sept. 20, 2007http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7379523
Not much, if any, hype regarding Stewart at that date in here IIRC. I don't think I am nor was confused.......
meachem: 29 catches, 544 yards, 8 TDs, 39 targetscolston: 50-854-8-80.meachem is on the streak of his life and he still isn't as good as colston. colston takes the opponents' no. 1 DB. he takes double coverage. i need to see a lot more before i make the leap that he's better than colston.valhallan said:Guys.. you know what, as much as I love Colston as a fan, Meachem is the best receiver on the team. He just is. He's been playing at a level Saints fans havent seen during the Payton era. Ignore at your own risk
To me, that just suggests that now's the time to buy on Ochocinco. He's producing yet another "ho-hum" 1200 yard, fantasy WR13 season and it's not even registering on the radar. He's a 2-time first-team AP All Pro, 5 time pro bowler. Judging by the aging patterns of his peers (i.e. multiple pro bowlers), he's got a lot left in the tank. Terrell Owens is still a fantasy WR2 at age 36. Harrison lasted until 34. Roderick Smith lasted until 35. Joey Galloway lasted until 36. Jimmy Smith made it to 36. Keenan McCardell was still a strong fantasy starter at 35. So was Tim Brown. Ike Bruce made it to 36. Cris Carter made it to 35. Irving Fryar made it to 35, too. Hines Ward is 33 and still trucking along beautifully. Donald Driver is 34 and doing the same. Derrick Mason is 35 and doing the same. The fact of the matter is, unless he suffers some kind of career-threatening injury (Terry Glenn, Torry Holt and his degenerative knees, etc), any multiple-pro-bowl caliber WR is pretty much a lock to still be producing at 35. Which gives Ochocinco FOUR YEARS of WR2 or better production after this one. As far as I'm concerned, you can count on starting him in 2010... you can count on starting him in 2011... you can count on starting him in 2012... and you can even count on starting him in 2013. That's a LONG time of production you're still going to get out of him. Compare that to, say, a Mohammad Massoquai. How confident are you that you'll be able to start MoMass in 2013? Andre Caldwell? Heck, how confident are you that you'll be able to start Steve Smith North in 2013? Ochocinco is a piece that I would be looking to buy cheap and start until the wheels fall off.Out of curiousity, why are you so convinced that Ochocinco's value is about to hit the crapper in the near future?
Really?....That is almost funny....The last time I thought that anything I stated in here was a disaster would be........NEVER.
), and many others, and then place chips on alternative players to Crab and Moreno, like Percy and Beanie, that in the end, I'll be quite alright my man, yes, quite alright........I'm relentless in this fantasy game as I was in my own playing days, so whatever mistake(s) I do make, they'll be made up for later with guile, knowledge, hustle, and straight up instincts.Did you forget about these 2 threads?:Your Dynasty PPR Rankings=Really?....That is almost funny....The last time I thought that anything I stated in here was a disaster would be........NEVER.
Not to rehash an old discussion, especially since it involves your favorite team's golden child, but I do recall that T.D. was a 6th RD PICK. Uber-talents don't get drafted in the 6th Rd after playing Fullback in college 'cause he couldn't beat out some mediocre tailbacks. T.D. made himself into a very good player at the next level, but again, from a pure physical talent perspective, he's no more talented than Slaton, not IMO. So let's keep the record straight on what was said.
So what's Crabtree's done to-date that is so utterly impressive? His longest gainer is like 30 yards or so, right? I don't care too much about being slightly or grossly wrong on some things every now and then, but I highly doubt if anything I've said in here has or ever will get me into 'trouble', as you say. Not acquiring a Crabtree or whoever is the darling up in here that I don't like, say Moreno, for example, isn't going to kill my destiny in this game. Because guys like me will be well ahead of the curve on many more players like Hester, Sid Rice, Aaron Rodgers (yes, check the record again, my friend....
The key is to stay ready, not to get ready. How many of you are able to draft tomorrow for 2010? My parting advice to all dynasty players, new and veteran, is don't sleep, be on top of your game. Temporary setbacks in this endeavor mean little when you're always in "ready-mode".....
I'm back to the lab for a few weeks, getting ready for my Mock Season and rookie evals..........Peace!
Great discussion, as usual. SSOG, I think you may be setting Holmes’ floor too high (he was WR37 last year), and if Meachem were to become the WR1 in NO, I think 4-6 slots higher is a low estimate of the potential difference between the two. Admittedly, I am undecided as to where I would rank Holmes right now. His fantastic year thus far has me rethinking things for sure, but before this year, I would not have considered him in my top 15 (probably outside my top 20). In any case, I don’t think that he is the closest thing to a lock. Also admittedly, I don’t have a good handle on Meachem either. Right now, I rank Holmes ahead of Meachem. However, I don’t think its so far fetched to think that Meachem is a better dynasty bet than Holmes. Looking at F&L’s rankings, Britt and Nicks are ranked just ahead of Holmes and Maclin ranked just below. Crabtree and Harvin are on the next tier up entirely. I like Crabtree, Harvin and Maclin ahead of Holmes and Britt and Nicks just below so my rankings are probably close to F&L’s relative to these players. Some may not agree that Nicks/Britt/Maclin > Holmes or to a lesser extent, Crabtree/Harvin > Holmes, but I doubt many would find it controversial to rank those rooks ahead of Holmes. I am wondering why it is acceptable to rank those rookies ahead or equal to Holmes but it is controversial to rank Meachem at the same level. All of those rookies are as speculative as Meachem, are they not?I rank Crabtree/Harvin/Maclin ahead of Holmes because I think it is a big deal if a player has the upside of being a top 10-15 dynasty WR. If you think Meachem has “potential” to be that top 10-15 WR, that would be a big deal. I would not have the guts to trade Holmes for Meachem right now, but if Meachem finishes the year big, I may not be able to get Meachem for Holmes at year’s end.SSOG said:Agreed. Holmes for Meachem is a losing bet. It'd be like if you bet $10 on a spin of the wheel that resulted in a 10% chance at $15 and a 90% chance at $2. Yes, there's a chance that if you make that bet you'll wind up looking like a genius, walking away with $15 for a mere $10 investment... but over the long run, bets like those are a good way to bankrupt your team.Right now, Holmes is a reliable fantasy WR2. He's on pace for 1300 yards on 144 targets this season, and he has upside over what he's currently producing. With 6 or 7 TDs instead of the 4 he's on pace for (an incredibly obtainable figure), you're looking at an incredibly high-end WR2. And he's got pretty much no bust risk- he's got 4 years of consistently high-end production, he's handled tougher coverages, and he's playing with a franchise QB in his prime. Like I said, Santonio is as close of a thing to a lock as there is in fantasy football. He is going to be a WR2 for years to come. In order for you to walk away a winner from a Holmes-for-Meachem trade, Meachem would need to become a fantasy WR1. Is it possible? Of course it's POSSIBLE, but he'd have to wrest targets away from both Colston *AND* Henderson to pull it off. That's an awfully hard task for a guy who has 59 CAREER TARGETS (in 3 years!). And even if he does become the WR1 in New Orleans, what then? In Colston's 3 healthy seasons as the WR1 in NO, he's finished 14th, 8th, and 7th. If Meachem became the WR1 in New Orleans, he might wind up ranking 4-6 slots higher than Santonio. So *IF* Meachem gets more consistent targets and *IF* Meachem beats out a proven stud in Colston and *IF* Meachem maintains something resembling his rate stats once he becomes the focus of defenses and *IF* Meachem maintains something resembling his rate stats in the face of a larger workload, then he'll rank a bare handful of slots ahead of Holmes. Personally, I'm not a big fan of high-risk, low-reward trades.EBF said:Uhhh....az_prof said:
I don't know what's so funny about it. I've seen your track record, and much like you keep saying... it speaks for itself. It's not a terrible track record, but it's certainly not a great track record like you keep insisting. There are some disasterrific calls in there. I respect standing behind what you believe, but like I said, sometimes you're better served by tempering your enthusiasm. That'll help prevent an embarrassing situation like having Reggie Bush 3rd and DeAngelo Williams 14th. Or inducting Terrell Pryor into the pro football hall of fame before his (disaster of a) sophomore season in college. I'd like to see a comparison of your rankings to the consensus and seeing who wound up being right more often whenever you disagreed with the consensus by more than 5-10 spots.Also, you say elite talents don't fall to the 6th round? Tom Brady begs to differ. So does Shannon Sharpe. And Marques Colston. After that, you say from a purely PHYSICAL TALENT standpoint Slaton is better than TD... but that's not what you said this offseason. The entire Slaton/Davis argument started because you said (and this is a direct quote with no editing): "Slaton is as good as Portis........and Terrell Davis". You also said "But I certainly believe that Slaton is just as good as Portis AND Terrell. And if he plays on teams like Portis and Terrell that highlight and utilize his talents, and he can hold up over time, then yes, he could pretty much match what they do", and "So, in my eyes, from what I've seen of Slaton as a rookie, and Davis/Portis as rookies in this similar system, I have no doubt Slaton is just as good as either one of them and his work ethic and displayed maturity only gives me more assurance that he will be very successful in the next few years, barring injury, of course". That's not a discussion of measurables and combine results, that's you saying that Steve Slaton could have rushed for 2000 yards and earned league MVP on the 1998 Denver Broncos.Really?....That is almost funny....
The last time I thought that anything I stated in here was a disaster would be........NEVER.
Not to rehash an old discussion, especially since it involves your favorite team's golden child, but I do recall that T.D. was a 6th RD PICK. Uber-talents don't get drafted in the 6th Rd after playing Fullback in college 'cause he couldn't beat out some mediocre tailbacks. T.D. made himself into a very good player at the next level, but again, from a pure physical talent perspective, he's no more talented than Slaton, not IMO. So let's keep the record straight on what was said.
So what's Crabtree's done to-date that is so utterly impressive? His longest gainer is like 30 yards or so, right? I don't care too much about being slightly or grossly wrong on some things every now and then, but I highly doubt if anything I've said in here has or ever will get me into 'trouble', as you say. Not acquiring a Crabtree or whoever is the darling up in here that I don't like, say Moreno, for example, isn't going to kill my destiny in this game. Because guys like me will be well ahead of the curve on many more players like Hester, Sid Rice, Aaron Rodgers (yes, check the record again, my friend....
The key is to stay ready, not to get ready. How many of you are able to draft tomorrow for 2010? My parting advice to all dynasty players, new and veteran, is don't sleep, be on top of your game. Temporary setbacks in this endeavor mean little when you're always in "ready-mode".....
I'm back to the lab for a few weeks, getting ready for my Mock Season and rookie evals..........Peace!
