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Marshall, on the other hand, might be arrested before we wake up in the morning.

This is a key distinction between the two. Randy Moss does a lot of stupid things, alienates a lot of people, whines and pouts and generally acts like a spoiled 2 year old... but he doesn't have a pattern of behavior that will possibly keep him off of the football field. In fact, through his career, it's possible that all his antics have done is get him MORE targets. As a (now former) Randy Moss owner, I didn't care if he mooned the crowd at Green Bay or talked about how he smokes pot still in interviews- end zone celebrations only rate a fine (his money, not mine), never a suspension, and all of his talk was just that- talk. He never ran afoul of the substance abuse policy, so let him talk all he wants if that helps him maintain his street cred.Brandon Marshall's poor behavior, on the other hand, *DOES* present a serious risk of preventing him from seeing the football field. It's already kept him off the football field once, and he's reached the point where one more personal conduct transgression means at least half a season gone, possibly even a full season. And the simple fact is that I don't trust him to control himself. Once upon a time, yeah, I would have given him the benefit of the doubt. He claimed he was in a toxic relationship, he said his girlfriend was out to get him, he said he was severing all ties and surrounding himself with better influences. Then he got into a domestic dispute with his NEW girlfriend (fiance, actually). Which means either that "toxic relationship" spin was just that- spin- or else he's now currently engaged in yet another "toxic relationship". Either way, it amounts to the same thing- he's a ticking time bomb, another domestic dispute just waiting to happen. And when it does happen (and I seriously believe it's more a question of when than if), he's gone for 8 games, 16 games, who knows how long.It's been long enough since Marshall's name was in the news that a lot of owners are forgetting, but Goodell doesn't forget. One slip up and the media will dig up the whole sordid history and plaster it all over ESPN again, and Goodell's hand will be forced. And even if he doesn't slip up for another couple of years, it's not like that's his only issue- images of him batting down balls in practice and jogging his routes during full-speed offensive reps are still fresh in my mind. I've got Marshall a bit higher than F&L (not much, but a little bit) because he's going to be a real difference maker until such time as he does something stupid, but he's not someone that I would want to rely on as a cornerstone of my team. Awesome WR2, but a liability as a WR1.
I am not trading him for anything. The "knucklehead" factor is way overplayed. First, you never really know who a knucklehead is. Everyone thought Marvin Harrison was the picture of a gentlemen and then we found out the truth. And, people like Marshall do change for the better and mature. Domestic abuse is a societal problem and one that appears prevalent in the NFL--it isn't a Brandon Marshall problem alone. And Marshall was cleared of charges so I am going to accept that he is innocent.Bottom line is that you guys have been talking about the knucklehead factor for several years now and I just keep playing Marshall and enjoying top ten performances. I also think that McDaniels (whom I didn't like to begin) has been a positive influence. Marshall all season has been saying the right things and doing the right things on the field.

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Marshall, on the other hand, might be arrested before we wake up in the morning.

This is a key distinction between the two. Randy Moss does a lot of stupid things, alienates a lot of people, whines and pouts and generally acts like a spoiled 2 year old... but he doesn't have a pattern of behavior that will possibly keep him off of the football field. In fact, through his career, it's possible that all his antics have done is get him MORE targets. As a (now former) Randy Moss owner, I didn't care if he mooned the crowd at Green Bay or talked about how he smokes pot still in interviews- end zone celebrations only rate a fine (his money, not mine), never a suspension, and all of his talk was just that- talk. He never ran afoul of the substance abuse policy, so let him talk all he wants if that helps him maintain his street cred.Brandon Marshall's poor behavior, on the other hand, *DOES* present a serious risk of preventing him from seeing the football field. It's already kept him off the football field once, and he's reached the point where one more personal conduct transgression means at least half a season gone, possibly even a full season. And the simple fact is that I don't trust him to control himself. Once upon a time, yeah, I would have given him the benefit of the doubt. He claimed he was in a toxic relationship, he said his girlfriend was out to get him, he said he was severing all ties and surrounding himself with better influences. Then he got into a domestic dispute with his NEW girlfriend (fiance, actually). Which means either that "toxic relationship" spin was just that- spin- or else he's now currently engaged in yet another "toxic relationship". Either way, it amounts to the same thing- he's a ticking time bomb, another domestic dispute just waiting to happen. And when it does happen (and I seriously believe it's more a question of when than if), he's gone for 8 games, 16 games, who knows how long.It's been long enough since Marshall's name was in the news that a lot of owners are forgetting, but Goodell doesn't forget. One slip up and the media will dig up the whole sordid history and plaster it all over ESPN again, and Goodell's hand will be forced. And even if he doesn't slip up for another couple of years, it's not like that's his only issue- images of him batting down balls in practice and jogging his routes during full-speed offensive reps are still fresh in my mind. I've got Marshall a bit higher than F&L (not much, but a little bit) because he's going to be a real difference maker until such time as he does something stupid, but he's not someone that I would want to rely on as a cornerstone of my team. Awesome WR2, but a liability as a WR1.
I am not trading him for anything. The "knucklehead" factor is way overplayed. First, you never really know who a knucklehead is. Everyone thought Marvin Harrison was the picture of a gentlemen and then we found out the truth. And, people like Marshall do change for the better and mature. Domestic abuse is a societal problem and one that appears prevalent in the NFL--it isn't a Brandon Marshall problem alone. And Marshall was cleared of charges so I am going to accept that he is innocent.Bottom line is that you guys have been talking about the knucklehead factor for several years now and I just keep playing Marshall and enjoying top ten performances. I also think that McDaniels (whom I didn't like to begin) has been a positive influence. Marshall all season has been saying the right things and doing the right things on the field.
Starting to see it this way too. If I could get the guy who owns Marshall to trade him I'd do it in a second. He won't. He loves him too much.

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I am not trading him for anything. The "knucklehead" factor is way overplayed. First, you never really know who a knucklehead is. Everyone thought Marvin Harrison was the picture of a gentlemen and then we found out the truth. And, people like Marshall do change for the better and mature. Domestic abuse is a societal problem and one that appears prevalent in the NFL--it isn't a Brandon Marshall problem alone. And Marshall was cleared of charges so I am going to accept that he is innocent.

Bottom line is that you guys have been talking about the knucklehead factor for several years now and I just keep playing Marshall and enjoying top ten performances. I also think that McDaniels (whom I didn't like to begin) has been a positive influence. Marshall all season has been saying the right things and doing the right things on the field.

I don't think the "knucklehead" factor is overplayed at all. People just have short memories. Nobody wanted any part of Marshall back in the summer -- and for good reason. There were also plenty of periods in Plaxico Burress' career where people were perfectly willing overlook a perceived knucklehead factor. Change happens quickly.

For the record, your memory of Marshall's past transgressions is terribly skewed. Here's a complete rundown from a year and a half ago.

Marvin Harrison was nowhere near a knucklehead. That's a ridiculous comparison. I think a lot of people confuse criminal activity for knucklehead factor.

Frankly, I don't care if you value Brandon Marshall highly. But I, for one, do not value him highly and don't want him on my team.

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Really?....That is almost funny....

The last time I thought that anything I stated in here was a disaster would be........NEVER.

Not to rehash an old discussion, especially since it involves your favorite team's golden child, but I do recall that T.D. was a 6th RD PICK. Uber-talents don't get drafted in the 6th Rd after playing Fullback in college 'cause he couldn't beat out some mediocre tailbacks. T.D. made himself into a very good player at the next level, but again, from a pure physical talent perspective, he's no more talented than Slaton, not IMO. So let's keep the record straight on what was said.

So what's Crabtree's done to-date that is so utterly impressive? His longest gainer is like 30 yards or so, right? I don't care too much about being slightly or grossly wrong on some things every now and then, but I highly doubt if anything I've said in here has or ever will get me into 'trouble', as you say. Not acquiring a Crabtree or whoever is the darling up in here that I don't like, say Moreno, for example, isn't going to kill my destiny in this game. Because guys like me will be well ahead of the curve on many more players like Hester, Sid Rice, Aaron Rodgers (yes, check the record again, my friend.... :shrug: ), and many others, and then place chips on alternative players to Crab and Moreno, like Percy and Beanie, that in the end, I'll be quite alright my man, yes, quite alright........I'm relentless in this fantasy game as I was in my own playing days, so whatever mistake(s) I do make, they'll be made up for later with guile, knowledge, hustle, and straight up instincts.

The key is to stay ready, not to get ready. How many of you are able to draft tomorrow for 2010? My parting advice to all dynasty players, new and veteran, is don't sleep, be on top of your game. Temporary setbacks in this endeavor mean little when you're always in "ready-mode".....

I'm back to the lab for a few weeks, getting ready for my Mock Season and rookie evals..........Peace!

I don't know what's so funny about it. I've seen your track record, and much like you keep saying... it speaks for itself. It's not a terrible track record, but it's certainly not a great track record like you keep insisting. There are some disasterrific calls in there. I respect standing behind what you believe, but like I said, sometimes you're better served by tempering your enthusiasm. That'll help prevent an embarrassing situation like having Reggie Bush 3rd and DeAngelo Williams 14th. Or inducting Terrell Pryor into the pro football hall of fame before his (disaster of a) sophomore season in college. I'd like to see a comparison of your rankings to the consensus and seeing who wound up being right more often whenever you disagreed with the consensus by more than 5-10 spots.

Also, you say elite talents don't fall to the 6th round? Tom Brady begs to differ. So does Shannon Sharpe. And Marques Colston. After that, you say from a purely PHYSICAL TALENT standpoint Slaton is better than TD... but that's not what you said this offseason. The entire Slaton/Davis argument started because you said (and this is a direct quote with no editing): "Slaton is as good as Portis........and Terrell Davis". You also said "But I certainly believe that Slaton is just as good as Portis AND Terrell. And if he plays on teams like Portis and Terrell that highlight and utilize his talents, and he can hold up over time, then yes, he could pretty much match what they do", and "So, in my eyes, from what I've seen of Slaton as a rookie, and Davis/Portis as rookies in this similar system, I have no doubt Slaton is just as good as either one of them and his work ethic and displayed maturity only gives me more assurance that he will be very successful in the next few years, barring injury, of course". That's not a discussion of measurables and combine results, that's you saying that Steve Slaton could have rushed for 2000 yards and earned league MVP on the 1998 Denver Broncos.

Like I said, my biggest issue is that you talk a very big game. You always talk about your track record, and your wild dynasty league success, and your amazing scouting ability, and your year-round dedication to your craft... but you can't back any of it up. You say that you were high on Hester and Sidney Rice and Aaron Rodgers and Jonathan Stewart, so anyone following your advice would have them on their squad. That's fine. Those people would also have Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden, Steve Slaton, and Josh Morgan. It may just be me, but Rodgers/Bush/Slaton/Rice/Hester/Morgan doesn't look like a championship-caliber roster to me.

Actually, reading through that, I don't even see you being high on Sidney Rice. You had him at 38th in the final 2009 rankings. That's maybe very slightly higher than the consensus, but that's not "high" by any stretch. In your original rankings on page 1, you didn't even mention Sidney Rice. Actually, that's not fair, you did mention Sidney Rice once. Your #24 WR read as follows:

4. Aundrae Allison……Rice is having problems staying healthy and he better watch out as “AA” is a very talented player who could take advantage of any future opportunities ala Lance Moore

Like I suggested earlier (and I really suggest that EVERYONE do this, because it's a very helpful exercise)- I'd recommend going back over your actual record and objectively evaluating it. See where you were right, see where you were wrong. Where you were right, try to determine what led you to be right, and reinforce that. Where you were wrong, try to determine what led you to be wrong, and correct that. It's a sometimes humbling process, but in the long run it really helps you identify your own weaknesses and improve upon them... or, at the very least, be cognizant of them and guard against them. From what I see, it looks as if when you differed substantially from the consensus, you were wrong more often than not.

I'm fond of saying that fantasy football is the only hobby where 95% of the participants reside 75th percentile or better. It's a joke, but it carries a lot of truth to it. *EVERYONE* thinks they are above average at fantasy football. Statistics tell us that half of them are certainly wrong. I'm always looking back to see if I'm in the half that is wrong or the half that is right. Generally, I find that I'm a lot closer to the half that is wrong than I want to believe. It's a good lesson in humility.

First off, and this is a small point of contention, but I'll say it anyway. Where did you see Rice listed higher than or anywhere near 38th in dynasty ranks entering this season, especially back in June? But more importanly, any other ranking where he was listed ahead of Berrian, which is the more important distinction.

I don't even need to submit such proof of who I am high on or not nor detail my every move to acquire players I make in my leagues , I simply go out and get 'em on my teams. Since the likes of a Lee Evans and Lynch are the type of guys you seem to value and like to roster, please refrain from who you believe I like to roster as the only thing that matters are the end results. Nobody wins all the time, and I wouldn't ever claim to, but I would love for you to accept an invitation to join in on any of the dynasty leagues that I am in........I'll even create a spot in an existing one for you that I commish or start up a new one next year as long as you get in. Actually, there is possibly an opening now in one that I do not commish that has a very good format, including rostering one developmental player in college. You possibly interested?

On to my boy Jamaal Charles.... :popcorn: ..Yes, Charles is a player who I'd recommend as a player on the rise, and not a temporary fortunate situation guy. He is showing his true talents that fit not only in Haley's system, but in today's NFL in general. Guys who don't have to be a 300 carry workhorse, but who can make the most out of about 260-275 touches a year.......primarily due to their high yard-per-touch ability......Charles, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Felix Jones, Leon Washington (pre-injury), DeAngelo, and soon-to-be Spiller and possibly even Best. No longer do you have to fit the profile of a prototype size/weight metric, just be a playmaker with at least some measure of durability.

Edited by kremenull

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Which RBs should be targeted in the 2010 offseason?

A few seemingly top RBs saw their fantasy value drop substantially throughout the 2009 season (for various reasons). Are any of these guys likely to bounce back in 2010 and thus good players to target while their value is low?

Steve Slaton

Matt Forte

Ronnie Brown

Marshawn Lynch

Brandon Jacobs

Darren McFadden

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Which RBs should be targeted in the 2010 offseason?A few seemingly top RBs saw their fantasy value drop substantially throughout the 2009 season (for various reasons). Are any of these guys likely to bounce back in 2010 and thus good players to target while their value is low?Steve SlatonMatt ForteRonnie BrownMarshawn LynchBrandon JacobsDarren McFadden

I think the top 3 are Brown, Lynch, and Forte in that order. After that maybe Jacobs (but he is taking a beating and will wear down soon IMO), then Slaton and Mcfadden.

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Which RBs should be targeted in the 2010 offseason?

Was just thinking about this. My top two guys would probably be Shonn Greene and Marshawn Lynch. Greene was one of my favorite players in this draft class and while he doesn't have superstar potential, I like what I've seen from him this season and I think there's a good chance that you can get him below actual value because he hasn't "popped" yet. The solid play of Thomas Jones is causing a lot of people to overlook his advanced age. He doesn't worry me here (although Leon Washington is a threat).

Lynch is the same guy he was two years ago when he was a top 20 pick in most dynasty leagues. He's never going to single-handedly win your league for you, but I believe he's a starting caliber NFL RB and a strong RB2 in most dynasty leagues. He's having a nightmare season like Ochocinco did last year. Many people will downgrade him too severely. I still think he has some decent seasons left. I would buy for a reasonable price.

Felix Jones is a player who fits the conventional breakout mold: high pick with a lot of talent. He seemingly makes a big play in every game. Injuries have slowed him down this year and his short term opportunity could be limited with Barber and Choice around, but you have to think there's good potential here if Felix can ever earn an outright starting role. Talent is not a question for him. Workload and durability are.

Jamaal Charles is another obvious breakout candidate. Any time a young high pick RB starts putting up big stats in his first extended duty, you have to consider the chance that he'll become a long term player.

Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells, Donald Brown, and LeSean McCoy also have the potential for a value spike. Personally, I'm pretty lukewarm on this group. None of them are "must buys" on my list, although it's likely that 1-2 will be solid starters.

Beyond that you have some semi-longshot veterans who have shown promise in limited duty. Tashard Choice. Ahmad Bradshaw. Leon Washington. Bernard Scott. Darren Sproles. Reggie Bush. Javon Ringer. Laurence Maroney. There might be a gem in here somewhere.

A few seemingly top RBs saw their fantasy value drop substantially throughout the 2009 season (for various reasons). Are any of these guys likely to bounce back in 2010 and thus good players to target while their value is low?

Steve Slaton

Matt Forte

Ronnie Brown

Marshawn Lynch

Brandon Jacobs

Darren McFadden

I feel like most of these guys are on the downslope of their FF careers. The buy-low moment already came and went for Ronnie Brown and Brandon Jacobs. It was years ago. Ditto Forte and Slaton. The time to buy was before their rookie seasons. The time to sell was after their rookie seasons. Now is the time to avoid them. McFadden basically looks like a bust to me. He has shown very little promise running the football. As a dirt cheap flyer I guess you could do worse, but I've seen little cause for optimism.

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Which RBs should be targeted in the 2010 offseason?A few seemingly top RBs saw their fantasy value drop substantially throughout the 2009 season (for various reasons). Are any of these guys likely to bounce back in 2010 and thus good players to target while their value is low?Steve SlatonMatt ForteRonnie BrownMarshawn LynchBrandon JacobsDarren McFadden

A couple of guys who I have no or minimal stake in currently who I believe to be offseason targets would be Donald Brown, Bernard Scott, McFadden, and LeSean McCoy. Others who I do have a pretty nice investment in (with regards to % owned in my dynasty leagues) who I would still recommend would be Beanie, Maroney, Charles, and Felix Jones......

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Which RBs should be targeted in the 2010 offseason?A few seemingly top RBs saw their fantasy value drop substantially throughout the 2009 season (for various reasons). Are any of these guys likely to bounce back in 2010 and thus good players to target while their value is low?Steve SlatonMatt ForteRonnie BrownMarshawn LynchBrandon JacobsDarren McFadden

Personally, I want no part of most of these guys, most of them were sell-high guys whose current value is their true value. Slaton, Forte and Jacobs do nothing for me. I also doubt Forte would be all that cheap.Lynch and McFadden could be interesting, but I wonder about both of them. Are they even the best RB's on their team? How long are they both going to be committee members in crappy offenses? I'd probably be more inclined towards McFadden just due to his receiving ability and the fact that I think Fred Jackson is a much bigger roadblock than Fargas or Michael Bush.Brown looks like the best of the bunch, but he's also the riskiest because of his age and injury. I think he's got the highest ceiling of the group though.One guy who I don't think is mentioned as a buy-low guy is Pierre Thomas. I think people assume he's just a product of the Saints offense, but I actually think the Saints offense holds him back a little. Well, not the offense itself, but the fact the he's underused by the coaching staff. I don't think we've seen his best yet(he looks better this year after he put on about 10 pounds this past off season) and if he ever gets a bigger workload he's got top-5 upside. I think he's the perfect flex guy and has a world of upside. In a way, I think this year could be his floor. He's FAR more talented than he gets credit for. I've got him somewhere between 10-15 at RB at the moment.

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Which RBs should be targeted in the 2010 offseason?A few seemingly top RBs saw their fantasy value drop substantially throughout the 2009 season (for various reasons). Are any of these guys likely to bounce back in 2010 and thus good players to target while their value is low?Steve SlatonMatt ForteRonnie BrownMarshawn LynchBrandon JacobsDarren McFadden

Great question--because if you can identify this kind of player you can get real value. Of the players you mention here are my views:Forte: No. I think it may have EBF or Waldman who pegged him as the kind of player who would start for a few years but who lacks the physical ability to really dominate and therefore is replaceable. I think we have seen two years of him and we know who he is. He's not a superstar. I do think he may have one more year as the starter as I doubt Chicago will draft a back really high since they have other needs. So, I guess he might be an off season buy if you want a flex player or RB2 for a season. But I wouldn't over pay because I don't see him being a starter in two years or beyond.Slaton: No. I have no doubt Houston acquires someone more talented to compete. His fumbling is an issue. His size and durability and ability to be a short yardage and goal line back have all been revealed. He will be a situational starter in the future.Brown: Depends. I don't really know that much about the severity of his injury. We need to watch his rehab carefully and his contract situation too. He is an uber talent but has trouble staying healthy. I don't know if he would do better on another team or if his value is highest with MIA. Again, I wouldn't overpay because he is getting to that age where RBs don't play much longer and because of his health.Lynch: I have never liked his talent. I am sure others will disagree but I wouldn't want him. One thing to consider here though is how bad the whole offense has been. Maybe if Buffalo gets a great offensive coordinator there is some hope for Lynch.Jacobs: Yes. I think he is a great buy low. He had a bad year but my gut feeling is that he hasn't been healthy. McFadden: No. Never. he just isn't nearly as good a back as some people thought. I would try to acquire M. Bush as a throw in player to be honest--I still think he is the more talented back and he will get a chance to start somewhere in the next couple of years and produce.

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thoughts on jamaal charles. seems to be on fire the last few weeks. can he be a legit rb#1 next year?

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Which RBs should be targeted in the 2010 offseason?A few seemingly top RBs saw their fantasy value drop substantially throughout the 2009 season (for various reasons). Are any of these guys likely to bounce back in 2010 and thus good players to target while their value is low?Steve SlatonMatt ForteRonnie BrownMarshawn LynchBrandon JacobsDarren McFadden

Personally, I want no part of most of these guys, most of them were sell-high guys whose current value is their true value. Slaton, Forte and Jacobs do nothing for me. I also doubt Forte would be all that cheap.Lynch and McFadden could be interesting, but I wonder about both of them. Are they even the best RB's on their team? How long are they both going to be committee members in crappy offenses? I'd probably be more inclined towards McFadden just due to his receiving ability and the fact that I think Fred Jackson is a much bigger roadblock than Fargas or Michael Bush.Brown looks like the best of the bunch, but he's also the riskiest because of his age and injury. I think he's got the highest ceiling of the group though.One guy who I don't think is mentioned as a buy-low guy is Pierre Thomas. I think people assume he's just a product of the Saints offense, but I actually think the Saints offense holds him back a little. Well, not the offense itself, but the fact the he's underused by the coaching staff. I don't think we've seen his best yet(he looks better this year after he put on about 10 pounds this past off season) and if he ever gets a bigger workload he's got top-5 upside. I think he's the perfect flex guy and has a world of upside. In a way, I think this year could be his floor. He's FAR more talented than he gets credit for. I've got him somewhere between 10-15 at RB at the moment.
Pretty much agree with what you said. About Thomas, though, if Reggie Bush goes elsewhere as I expect, his value will really go out the roof. I don't know how cheaply you could get him but if you could get him for a reasonable price I like him very much going forward. He is talented and can receive as well as run and can pretty do everything. The one concern I have is that he had an opportunity this year to nail down that job and injuries stopped him--a featured back has to be durable.

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thoughts on jamaal charles. seems to be on fire the last few weeks. can he be a legit rb#1 next year?

Yes. If I had him I would hold onto him tightly. I doubt you will get him cheap if you don't have him.

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I like this year's rookie class of RBs: Moreno, Wells, D. Brown. None of them have really exploded this year because they haven't been featured but I could see one or more of these guys doing what Ray Rice has doen this year. I would be very surprised if all three are not given good shots to be the featured guy in their offense next year. None would be cheap to get this year but I think you could get them for a first round rookie pick lower than where they were drafted this year because of their relatively low production and all three have shown me enough talent to think that given opportunity and health they can be very effective.

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Which RBs should be targeted in the 2010 offseason?

Was just thinking about this. My top two guys would probably be Shonn Greene and Marshawn Lynch. Greene was one of my favorite players in this draft class and while he doesn't have superstar potential, I like what I've seen from him this season and I think there's a good chance that you can get him below actual value because he hasn't "popped" yet. The solid play of Thomas Jones is causing a lot of people to overlook his advanced age. He doesn't worry me here (although Leon Washington is a threat).

Lynch is the same guy he was two years ago when he was a top 20 pick in most dynasty leagues. He's never going to single-handedly win your league for you, but I believe he's a starting caliber NFL RB and a strong RB2 in most dynasty leagues. He's having a nightmare season like Ochocinco did last year. Many people will downgrade him too severely. I still think he has some decent seasons left. I would buy for a reasonable price.

Felix Jones is a player who fits the conventional breakout mold: high pick with a lot of talent. He seemingly makes a big play in every game. Injuries have slowed him down this year and his short term opportunity could be limited with Barber and Choice around, but you have to think there's good potential here if Felix can ever earn an outright starting role. Talent is not a question for him. Workload and durability are.

Jamaal Charles is another obvious breakout candidate. Any time a young high pick RB starts putting up big stats in his first extended duty, you have to consider the chance that he'll become a long term player.

Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells, Donald Brown, and LeSean McCoy also have the potential for a value spike. Personally, I'm pretty lukewarm on this group. None of them are "must buys" on my list, although it's likely that 1-2 will be solid starters.

Beyond that you have some semi-longshot veterans who have shown promise in limited duty. Tashard Choice. Ahmad Bradshaw. Leon Washington. Bernard Scott. Darren Sproles. Reggie Bush. Javon Ringer. Laurence Maroney. There might be a gem in here somewhere.

A few seemingly top RBs saw their fantasy value drop substantially throughout the 2009 season (for various reasons). Are any of these guys likely to bounce back in 2010 and thus good players to target while their value is low?

Steve Slaton

Matt Forte

Ronnie Brown

Marshawn Lynch

Brandon Jacobs

Darren McFadden

I feel like most of these guys are on the downslope of their FF careers. The buy-low moment already came and went for Ronnie Brown and Brandon Jacobs. It was years ago. Ditto Forte and Slaton. The time to buy was before their rookie seasons. The time to sell was after their rookie seasons. Now is the time to avoid them. McFadden basically looks like a bust to me. He has shown very little promise running the football. As a dirt cheap flyer I guess you could do worse, but I've seen little cause for optimism.
:goodposting:

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I'm on the other side of the fence. I don't like this year's RB class. I don't think any of those guys look like special players. The odds say a couple of them will eventually be solid, but it's a pretty ho-hum group IMO.

The WR class is a different story. Those guys look good. Crabtree, Harvin, Nicks, Britt, and Maclin have all shown flashes. I think it will be like the 2008 RB class where almost every player picked in the first round turned out to be pretty solid.

Still, high profile first round rookies aren't always wise investments after their first season. People tend to be overly optimistic about high pick rookies who flash talent in their first season. You're simply not going to get Nicks, Crabtree, or McCoy cheap. You'll probably have to pay near their upside to get them, which means there's very little margin for error and lots of downside (see: Forte, Slaton, Royal).

Mendenhall and Rice(s) were nice investments this past offseason because their lack of production caused a lot of people to downgrade and/or give up on them. If you're looking for the smart buys in this rookie class then I think you need to focus on players who currently have a similar lack of hype. The only guys who really fit that mold this year are Greene and Brown. The others have done too much to be cheap (aside from Heyward-Bey, who seems like a DOA bust). I guess you could also make a case for someone like Massaquoi or Robiskie if you're a believer.

Edited by EBF

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thoughts on jamaal charles. seems to be on fire the last few weeks. can he be a legit rb#1 next year?

Yes. If I had him I would hold onto him tightly. I doubt you will get him cheap if you don't have him.
Funny how things change in just 5 short weeks. As soon as LJ was waived I tried to peddle Jamaal to any number of teams in one of my MOX dynasty leagues. I have a team that has turned out better this year than I could have thought and felt I needed a boost from a solid vet/contributor for a playoff run. EVERY deal I sent out was rejected for such players as Hines Ward, Donald Driver and Brent Celek (2 PPR for TE). Nobody wanted Jamaal. Everyone wanted to see him do something for a few weeks before they'd consider it. I kept trying to explain that once he actually does do something, he won't be this cheap, but no one bit.This MOX league is full of posters on FBG's. Just thought it was interesting to point out that none of these astute owners would give Jamaal much value 5 weeks ago, now I'm glad they didn't.

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I was the guy who brought up the question. Do you trade Greene for R. Williams to win now?

I instead traded Greene for Jamaal Charles.

I am very excited about Charles and the last week of production. He has such great speed and has actualy done very well between the tackles. The Chiefs must address other roster spots at the draft. Surely??

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I second the vote for Pierre Thomas as a buy low.

Marshawn Lynch is only worthwhile if he gets out of Buffalo, IMO, as he's a good back, but Fred J's been better on a historically bad offense that will almost surely be horrid again next year without some Shanahan-type magic. Put Lynch in an average offense (and assuming he was acquired to be the starter) and he might be a difference-maker, but that could be said of a lot of guys.

I'd double down on Beanie before investing anything in acquiring Shonn Greene.

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Out of curiousity, why are you so convinced that Ochocinco's value is about to hit the crapper in the near future?

I don't think he's all that valuable NOW. I far prefer guys with some sort of upside in dynasty, and I don't see it with 8 5.You disagree... I know. Next topic?
You say that Ochocinco doesn't have any sort of upside over what he's currently producing. I say so what? He's currently fantasy WR13 coming into this week. Even if he presents no upside over that, there are only 12 WRs in any given season that can produce more than WR13. You might prefer 36 other WRs that you think can make it into that top 12, but the reality is that 66% of them won't.I also don't see why Ochocinco has no upside over what he's currently producing. He's produced higher than that 2 years ago. He produced higher than that 3 years ago. He produced higher than that 4 years ago. He produced higher than that 5 years ago. He produced higher than that 6 years ago. He had five straight top-10 finishes. I understand that the memory of last year is lingering strongly in your mind, but the reality is that this year proves last year was an aberration. I don't know how you can say that a still-young WR with 5 top-10 finishes in the last 6 seasons has no upside beyond WR13.I'm really confused about what upside other WRs have that Chad doesn't. Obviously you don't like yards for some bizarre reason, despite the fact that they score points, too. So your criticism of Ochocinco is that he doesn't score enough TDs? Throw out last year's terrible season and pro-rate this season and Ocho has averaged 8.5 TDs a year. How many WRs do you honestly think have a chance to average more than that? Seriously. By my count, the only four guys who I think can average better than that are Fitzgerald, Moss, Jackson, and Calvin. Maybe Rice, too. Maybe not. 8.5 is a lot of TDs for a WR to average, certainly top 10 at the position.
I'm getting waaay too vocal about this, but "WR #13" yardage dependent wideouts that go into huge yardage slumps throughout any given recent season (Palmer threw for NINETY-FOUR YARDS YESTERDAY!) don't offer much of a difference on a week to week basis over "WR #30" flavor of the week/matchup play that are a dime a dozen. I threw out Derrick Mason as a comp and SSOG went OFF about how Chad 85 was infinitely better because he once-upon-a-time was a younger guy in a better passing O while Mason has been McNair/coach limited throughout his career.Again, 85's a boring, safe, 7-8 points a week. Again, how does that WIN one ANYTHING?

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Out of curiousity, why are you so convinced that Ochocinco's value is about to hit the crapper in the near future?

I don't think he's all that valuable NOW. I far prefer guys with some sort of upside in dynasty, and I don't see it with 8 5.You disagree... I know. Next topic?
You say that Ochocinco doesn't have any sort of upside over what he's currently producing. I say so what? He's currently fantasy WR13 coming into this week. Even if he presents no upside over that, there are only 12 WRs in any given season that can produce more than WR13. You might prefer 36 other WRs that you think can make it into that top 12, but the reality is that 66% of them won't.I also don't see why Ochocinco has no upside over what he's currently producing. He's produced higher than that 2 years ago. He produced higher than that 3 years ago. He produced higher than that 4 years ago. He produced higher than that 5 years ago. He produced higher than that 6 years ago. He had five straight top-10 finishes. I understand that the memory of last year is lingering strongly in your mind, but the reality is that this year proves last year was an aberration. I don't know how you can say that a still-young WR with 5 top-10 finishes in the last 6 seasons has no upside beyond WR13.I'm really confused about what upside other WRs have that Chad doesn't. Obviously you don't like yards for some bizarre reason, despite the fact that they score points, too. So your criticism of Ochocinco is that he doesn't score enough TDs? Throw out last year's terrible season and pro-rate this season and Ocho has averaged 8.5 TDs a year. How many WRs do you honestly think have a chance to average more than that? Seriously. By my count, the only four guys who I think can average better than that are Fitzgerald, Moss, Jackson, and Calvin. Maybe Rice, too. Maybe not. 8.5 is a lot of TDs for a WR to average, certainly top 10 at the position.
I'm getting waaay too vocal about this, but "WR #13" yardage dependent wideouts that go into huge yardage slumps throughout any given recent season (Palmer threw for NINETY-FOUR YARDS YESTERDAY!) don't offer much of a difference on a week to week basis over "WR #30" flavor of the week/matchup play that are a dime a dozen. I threw out Derrick Mason as a comp and SSOG went OFF about how Chad 85 was infinitely better because he once-upon-a-time was a younger guy in a better passing O while Mason has been McNair/coach limited throughout his career.Again, 85's a boring, safe, 7-8 points a week. Again, how does that WIN one ANYTHING?
I don't NEED 66% of them to make it to a mediocre weekly average point total as an every game starter for a full season. I NEED multiple options that may go OFF with the right matchups, and that may go OFF as their situation improves (for lack of a better term, UPSIDE). If 85 was posting top 13 numbers EVERY WEEK, I'd respect his overall ranking more. But, again, IMO, it's not hard to find guys with 300+ yards per season less than he averages that will post 90% of his stats on any given week, and have a lot more potential for BIG TIME numbers.I really don't see how this is that controversial? Just because one is "top 13" doesn't mean he's any sort of difference maker?

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I am not trading him for anything. The "knucklehead" factor is way overplayed. First, you never really know who a knucklehead is. Everyone thought Marvin Harrison was the picture of a gentlemen and then we found out the truth. And, people like Marshall do change for the better and mature. Domestic abuse is a societal problem and one that appears prevalent in the NFL--it isn't a Brandon Marshall problem alone. And Marshall was cleared of charges so I am going to accept that he is innocent.

Bottom line is that you guys have been talking about the knucklehead factor for several years now and I just keep playing Marshall and enjoying top ten performances. I also think that McDaniels (whom I didn't like to begin) has been a positive influence. Marshall all season has been saying the right things and doing the right things on the field.

I didn't get on the "knucklehead" train until he got dragged into custody in Atlanta for an "altercation" with his new fiance. Prior to that, I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Trying to pretend that domestic violence is this widespread problem in the NFL is silly, sensationalistic, and way off the mark, imo. How many other players can you name that have been brought in on domestic charges even once? Now, how many can you name that have been brought in SEVEN TIMES, with TWO DIFFERENT WOMEN, and already been suspended by the league once and issued an ultimatum that the next transgression would bring serious consequences? There's a big difference between a guy like Harvin who tested positive for marijuana once before he ever entered the league, and a guy like Ricky Williams who tested positive multiple times and eventually retired so he could smoke some ganja in peace.

You might see that he was cleared of charges and accept that he's innocent. I'd be perfectly willing to give him the benefit of the doubt if it was one time... but how many innocent men have you ever known who have had false charges brought against them SEVEN TIMES and then later dropped? And this is Goodell's NFL- innocence isn't as important as image, so "innocent" or not, Marshall's still in line to receive the hammer the next time he steps out of line.

There's also a big difference between "saying all the right things" when you've had plenty of time to prep for questions from the media and actually genuinely having changed. There have been plenty of times when Terrell Owens has "said all the right things", too. Randy Moss's entire Patriots tenure has been filled with people saying how he's a changed man... until this week he proved that he's still the same Randy Moss. People don't change that easily, and if they do, they don't change overnight- which is what Brandon Marshall did after dogging it in practices this offseason. To me, it seems that the only positive change Marshall has made is hiring a better PR team.

First off, and this is a small point of contention, but I'll say it anyway. Where did you see Rice listed higher than or anywhere near 38th in dynasty ranks entering this season, especially back in June? But more importanly, any other ranking where he was listed ahead of Berrian, which is the more important distinction.

I don't even need to submit such proof of who I am high on or not nor detail my every move to acquire players I make in my leagues , I simply go out and get 'em on my teams. Since the likes of a Lee Evans and Lynch are the type of guys you seem to value and like to roster, please refrain from who you believe I like to roster as the only thing that matters are the end results. Nobody wins all the time, and I wouldn't ever claim to, but I would love for you to accept an invitation to join in on any of the dynasty leagues that I am in........I'll even create a spot in an existing one for you that I commish or start up a new one next year as long as you get in. Actually, there is possibly an opening now in one that I do not commish that has a very good format, including rostering one developmental player in college. You possibly interested?

So what you're really arguing is that you were far less wrong about Sidney Rice than others. Which is fine, and that sort of thing will land you a lot of quality players, even though you were still wrong about them. There's a huge difference between "higher than others" and "high". If you have a guy listed at 38th (after just months earlier advising people to buy his backup, instead), then no, that doesn't qualify as being "high" on Sidney Rice.

Have I made some bad calls? Yeah, absolutely. Evans and Lynch are both having nightmare seasons this year, but I still believe in both long-term. I buried Miles Austin when he first broke out. There are plenty of mistakes littering these forums over the years. The big difference, though, is that I don't post long self-congratulatory posts about how I'm the be-all, end-all to dynasty knowledge. I freely and openly admit that I'm in all likelihood closer to the bottom 50% than I am to the top 10%. If you want to repeatedly intimate that you're in that top 10%, then you're going to be held to a higher standard. If you don't like it, then stop insisting that you've got some sort of unimpeachable track record.

I'd be willing to join another dynasty league this offseason as long as the format was acceptable, although I'll say up front that I don't play in money leagues.

Which RBs should be targeted in the 2010 offseason?

A few seemingly top RBs saw their fantasy value drop substantially throughout the 2009 season (for various reasons). Are any of these guys likely to bounce back in 2010 and thus good players to target while their value is low?

Steve Slaton

Matt Forte

Ronnie Brown

Marshawn Lynch

Brandon Jacobs

Darren McFadden

Steve Slaton and Matt Forte are both better than they looked this year (NOBODY is as bad as those two have looked this year), but the big problem is that I feel they've both demonstrated how replaceable they are. As long as they're starting, I'd expect their 2009 numbers to be near their floor... but I don't have any confidence in their ability to remain starters in the long term.

Ronnie Brown is a big-time expiring asset. He was already the oldest RB in the top 20, and now he's the oldest RB in the top 20 and also coming off of a serious season-ending injury. If he's not at 100% next year, then by the time he does hit 100%, he'll be 29 years old. I've mentioned my exit-value ranking method, and no matter what kind of window you look at, Brown's exit value is pretty much nonexistent. If you've got an RB corps of Moreno, Stewart, Beanie, and McFadden, then it might be useful to acquire an expiring asset like Ronnie and ride him as your RB2 until the wheels fall off (I actually bought Tomlinson for a song this past offseason because I needed a placeholder RB to start while Moreno and Stewart develop). In my opinion, though, that's really his only purpose at this point- a placeholder, someone to keep the seat warm while you develop his replacement.

Marshawn Lynch is very undervalued, although a couple of decent games recently might be changing that soon. He's far closer to the guy who finished 12th and 15th despite missing time in his first two seasons than he is to the guy who is 45th so far this season.

Your thoughts on McFadden depend on what you thought of him coming out. I've been saying for months that, if you truly believed in McFadden coming out, it's far too early to bury him. Plenty of young RBs with great pedigree have struggled a bit before putting it together, and that Oakland offense is offensive. If you didn't like him in the first place, then trust your initial impression and don't go looking to buy. If you loved him a year ago, then perhaps it's time to look into acquiring him.

As for Jacobs... I have to admit, I don't have a good feel for the Giants RB situation. I try to avoid it for situations I'm more familiar with, just because I feel like there's less of a chance of making a mistake if I stick to what's familiar.

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I'm getting waaay too vocal about this, but "WR #13" yardage dependent wideouts that go into huge yardage slumps throughout any given recent season (Palmer threw for NINETY-FOUR YARDS YESTERDAY!) don't offer much of a difference on a week to week basis over "WR #30" flavor of the week/matchup play that are a dime a dozen. I threw out Derrick Mason as a comp and SSOG went OFF about how Chad 85 was infinitely better because he once-upon-a-time was a younger guy in a better passing O while Mason has been McNair/coach limited throughout his career.Again, 85's a boring, safe, 7-8 points a week. Again, how does that WIN one ANYTHING?

Edit: I'm tired of chasing my tail, so I'm just deleting my argument. You're the reason ignore lists were invented. Since we've pretty much extracted everything we possibly can from this Ochocinco discussion, let's just let it die and move on. Edited by SSOG

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I'm getting waaay too vocal about this, but "WR #13" yardage dependent wideouts that go into huge yardage slumps throughout any given recent season (Palmer threw for NINETY-FOUR YARDS YESTERDAY!) don't offer much of a difference on a week to week basis over "WR #30" flavor of the week/matchup play that are a dime a dozen. I threw out Derrick Mason as a comp and SSOG went OFF about how Chad 85 was infinitely better because he once-upon-a-time was a younger guy in a better passing O while Mason has been McNair/coach limited throughout his career.Again, 85's a boring, safe, 7-8 points a week. Again, how does that WIN one ANYTHING?

Edit: I'm tired of chasing my tail, so I'm just deleting my argument. You're the reason ignore lists were invented. Since we've pretty much extracted everything we possibly can from this Ochocinco discussion, let's just let it die and move on.
Good idea. If you think 85's 70 yards a week and .45 Td's are difference makers over the average 3rd WR playing a bad D, then load up your dynasty rosters with them!

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One possible strategy item out of recent postal diarrhea:

Do the almost universally expanded #'s of dynasty rosters lend to streaming a LOT more than re-draft leagues? Example, if I had room for only 6 total rb/wr types and could start only two rb's and two wr's (I play in one such league), I would totally buy how a veteran guy with little upside but also little injury risk played a significant role.

If I had space for 6 WR's? I'd stream the hell out of them every week, and only place serious value on top 5-type talents (I play in such a league also).

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I'm getting waaay too vocal about this, but "WR #13" yardage dependent wideouts that go into huge yardage slumps throughout any given recent season (Palmer threw for NINETY-FOUR YARDS YESTERDAY!) don't offer much of a difference on a week to week basis over "WR #30" flavor of the week/matchup play that are a dime a dozen. I threw out Derrick Mason as a comp and SSOG went OFF about how Chad 85 was infinitely better because he once-upon-a-time was a younger guy in a better passing O while Mason has been McNair/coach limited throughout his career.

Again, 85's a boring, safe, 7-8 points a week. Again, how does that WIN one ANYTHING?

Edit: I'm tired of chasing my tail, so I'm just deleting my argument. You're the reason ignore lists were invented. Since we've pretty much extracted everything we possibly can from this Ochocinco discussion, let's just let it die and move on.
Good idea. If you think 85's 70 yards a week and .45 Td's are difference makers over the average 3rd WR playing a bad D, then load up your dynasty rosters with them!
I read that before you deleted it, and it really was way too well thought out to use on morons like that. I second your ignore motion and applaud your class (which I apparently lack lol)

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Out of curiousity, why are you so convinced that Ochocinco's value is about to hit the crapper in the near future?

I don't think he's all that valuable NOW. I far prefer guys with some sort of upside in dynasty, and I don't see it with 8 5.

You disagree... I know. Next topic?

You say that Ochocinco doesn't have any sort of upside over what he's currently producing. I say so what? He's currently fantasy WR13 coming into this week. Even if he presents no upside over that, there are only 12 WRs in any given season that can produce more than WR13. You might prefer 36 other WRs that you think can make it into that top 12, but the reality is that 66% of them won't.

I also don't see why Ochocinco has no upside over what he's currently producing. He's produced higher than that 2 years ago. He produced higher than that 3 years ago. He produced higher than that 4 years ago. He produced higher than that 5 years ago. He produced higher than that 6 years ago. He had five straight top-10 finishes. I understand that the memory of last year is lingering strongly in your mind, but the reality is that this year proves last year was an aberration. I don't know how you can say that a still-young WR with 5 top-10 finishes in the last 6 seasons has no upside beyond WR13.

I'm really confused about what upside other WRs have that Chad doesn't. Obviously you don't like yards for some bizarre reason, despite the fact that they score points, too. So your criticism of Ochocinco is that he doesn't score enough TDs? Throw out last year's terrible season and pro-rate this season and Ocho has averaged 8.5 TDs a year. How many WRs do you honestly think have a chance to average more than that? Seriously. By my count, the only four guys who I think can average better than that are Fitzgerald, Moss, Jackson, and Calvin. Maybe Rice, too. Maybe not. 8.5 is a lot of TDs for a WR to average, certainly top 10 at the position.

I'm getting waaay too vocal about this, but "WR #13" yardage dependent wideouts that go into huge yardage slumps throughout any given recent season (Palmer threw for NINETY-FOUR YARDS YESTERDAY!) don't offer much of a difference on a week to week basis over "WR #30" flavor of the week/matchup play that are a dime a dozen. I threw out Derrick Mason as a comp and SSOG went OFF about how Chad 85 was infinitely better because he once-upon-a-time was a younger guy in a better passing O while Mason has been McNair/coach limited throughout his career.

Again, 85's a boring, safe, 7-8 points a week. Again, how does that WIN one ANYTHING?

ever hear the expression slow and steady wins the race?

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SSOG, 8 5 vs. D. Mason, compare and contrast:

How low can you go?

First I'll do a contrast, then I'll do a comparison.

Contrast:

I. Ochocinco is *MUCH* more talented than Mason ever was

..A. Pro Bowls

.....i. Ochocinco has 5 pro bowls as a receiver

.....ii. Mason has 1 pro bowl as a receiver (although he has one more as a punt returner)

..B. All Pros

.....i. Ochocinco is a 2 time first team and 1 time second team AP All Pro

.....ii. Mason has never made a first or second team AP All Pro list as a receiver (although he made one as a punt returner)

II. Ochocinco has been *MUCH* more productive than Mason ever was

..A. Yardage

.....i. Ochocinco has topped 1200 receiving yards 5 times (and is on pace for a 6th)

.....ii. Mason has topped 1200 receiving yards once (and is not on pace to do so this year)

..B. Touchdowns

.....i. Ochocinco holds the lead in 6+ TD seasons, 6-3

.....ii. Ochocinco holds the lead in 7+ TD seasons, 6-3

.....iii. Ochocinco holds the lead in 8+ TD seasons, 4-2

.....iv. Ochocinco holds the lead in 9+ TD seasons, 3-1

.....v. Ochocinco holds the lead in 10+ TD seasons, 1-0

..C. Fantasy Points

.....i. Including this season, Ochocinco leads in top-10 finishes 5-1

.....ii. Including this season, Ochocinco leads in top-20 finishes 7-3

III. Ochocinco is MUCH younger than Mason is

..A. Age

.....i. Ochocinco is 31.

.....ii. Derrick Mason is 35.

..B. Recency of Production

.....i. Ochocinco is 2 years removed from a fantasy WR1 finish.

.....ii. Derrick Mason is 6 years removed from a fantasy WR1 finish.

..C. Expected future output

.....i. Based on historical aging patterns, Ochocinco has at least 4 years left of fantasy relevant production.

.....ii. Based on historical aging patterns, Mason has at most 1 year left of fantasy relevant production.

IV. Ochocinco holds MUCH more fantasy value than Mason does

..A. Chad Ochocinco is a top 20 dynasty WR.

..B. Derrick Mason is not a top 40 dynasty WR.

Comparison:

I. Chad Ochocinco and Derrick Mason both play Wide Receiver in the National Football League

re: "Slow and steady wins the race"

D. Mason vs. Ochocinco from week 3 of 2007 season to present:

yr/wk/yards/td's/fantasy points

07 3 79 1 12 138 0 13 w

07 4 78 0 7 w 53 0 5

07 5 85 0 8 t 83 0 8 t

07 6 79 0 7 102 0 10 w

07 7 78 1 12 w 51 0 5

07 8 35 0 3 48 0 4 w

07 9 29 0 2 73 0 7 w

07 10 83 0 8 t 86 0 8 t

07 11 99 0 9 103 3 25 w

07 12 67 1 11 w 86 0 8

07 13 30 0 3 60 0 6 w

07 14 45 1 9 w 78 0 7

07 15 98 1 15 w 44 0 4

07 16 72 0 7 131 2 23 w

08 1 44 0 4 w 22 0 2

08 2 42 0 4 w 37 0 3

08 3 137 0 13 w 29 0 2

08 4 38 0 3 28 1 7 w

08 5 70 0 7 w 43 0 4

08 6 87 1 8 w 57 0 5

08 7 3 0 0 52 1 10 w

08 8 136 1 18 w 44 0 4

08 9 41 0 4 w 37 2 3

08 10 82 0 8 w 34 0 3

08 11 40 0 4 w 0 0 0

08 12 91 1 15 w 45 0 4

08 13 60 1 11 w 79 0 7

08 14 23 0 2 33 0 3 w

08 15 66 1 11 w 0 0 0

08 16 77 0 7 w 0 0 0

09 1 47 4 89 0 8 w

09 2 31 3 91 1 14 w

09 3 118 1 16 w 54 0 5

09 4 88 1 13 w 24 2 12

09 5 0 0 94 0 9 w

09 6 97 1 14 w 103 0 10

09 7 40 1 9 118 2 21 w

09 8 31 3 66 0 6 w

09 9 78 7 w 29 0 2

09 10 142 14 w 67 0 6

09 11 62 1 11 w 38 0 3

09 12 13 1 137 1 18 w

09 13 94 1 14 w 27 1 12

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That chart looked better in the preview post than it ended up looking when posted. Bottom line:

H2H since after week 2 of 2007 (Chad J. was admittedly dominant those first two games):

2007 Johnson wins 7-5-2 head to head matchups against Mason (133-113 Johnson in total points)

2008, Mason wins 14-2 (119-57 Mason in total points)

2009, Mason wins 7-6 (121-109 Ochocinco in total points)

But of course, 2008 doesn't count, right?

Is someone Derrick Mason beats better than half the time on a consistent basis worth any sort of dynasty investment?

For this year, Ochocinco leads in average points by almost exactly 1 point per week. Mason has been better 7/13 weeks.

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That chart looked better in the preview post than it ended up looking when posted. Bottom line:H2H since after week 2 of 2007 (Chad J. was admittedly dominant those first two games):2007 Johnson wins 7-5-2 head to head matchups against Mason (133-113 Johnson in total points)2008, Mason wins 14-2 (119-57 Mason in total points)2009, Mason wins 7-6 (121-109 Ochocinco in total points)But of course, 2008 doesn't count, right? Is someone Derrick Mason beats better than half the time on a consistent basis worth any sort of dynasty investment?For this year, Ochocinco leads in average points by almost exactly 1 point per week. Mason has been better 7/13 weeks.

Why cherry pick only this time period?

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That chart looked better in the preview post than it ended up looking when posted. Bottom line:H2H since after week 2 of 2007 (Chad J. was admittedly dominant those first two games):2007 Johnson wins 7-5-2 head to head matchups against Mason (133-113 Johnson in total points)2008, Mason wins 14-2 (119-57 Mason in total points)2009, Mason wins 7-6 (121-109 Ochocinco in total points)But of course, 2008 doesn't count, right? Is someone Derrick Mason beats better than half the time on a consistent basis worth any sort of dynasty investment?For this year, Ochocinco leads in average points by almost exactly 1 point per week. Mason has been better 7/13 weeks.

Why cherry pick only this time period?
If he only goes back a year or two it actually helps his case more. Do you really think what happened 4 years ago is really relevant anymore?

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Anyone care to rank these rookie wideouts in the order they like 'em in dynasty?

Hakeem Nicks

Michael Crabtree

Percy Harvin

Jeremy Maclin

Kenny Britt

Johnny Knox

Mike Wallace

That's actually how I'd rank them -- I know Harvin is an amazing talent but Nicks just looks like he could be completely unstoppable to me as soon as next season. Feel free to add other rookies (Mike Thomas, Massaquoi, etc.)

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That chart looked better in the preview post than it ended up looking when posted. Bottom line:H2H since after week 2 of 2007 (Chad J. was admittedly dominant those first two games):2007 Johnson wins 7-5-2 head to head matchups against Mason (133-113 Johnson in total points)2008, Mason wins 14-2 (119-57 Mason in total points)2009, Mason wins 7-6 (121-109 Ochocinco in total points)But of course, 2008 doesn't count, right? Is someone Derrick Mason beats better than half the time on a consistent basis worth any sort of dynasty investment?For this year, Ochocinco leads in average points by almost exactly 1 point per week. Mason has been better 7/13 weeks.

For the love of god, please STOP! We get it- you don't like Ocho Cinco, you don't think he is valuable, and you feel the starting wide receivers from your local high school team have as much or more dynasty value as him. You are dead wrong and have continued to be made to look like a fool by SSOG and others on the subject (SSOG, you should have left up the post you edited out. I read it before your edit and it was well put together), but that is beside the point now. You are not right about this, you are never going to make yourself look right, and continued posting on the subject only serves to further damage any credibility you may have on future arguments. I have not had to use the ignore feature from anyone in this thread yet, as the knowledge is generally very good and insightful from most every poster, but you are coming dangerously close to becoming the first.

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Anyone care to rank these rookie wideouts in the order they like 'em in dynasty?Hakeem NicksMichael CrabtreePercy HarvinJeremy MaclinKenny BrittJohnny KnoxMike WallaceThat's actually how I'd rank them -- I know Harvin is an amazing talent but Nicks just looks like he could be completely unstoppable to me as soon as next season. Feel free to add other rookies (Mike Thomas, Massaquoi, etc.)

HarvinNicksCrabtreeBrittMaclinThomasHeyward-BeyJust kidding on the last one. I'm not completely sold on Knox and Wallace as anything but Devery Henderson types. I think they're talented, but that means lots of solid games, lots of games where they aren't visible at all. I don't view them as week-in, week-out contributors. Honestly, if you have any of the top 5 I think you should be happy. Britt suffers from a run-first offense (despite VY's passing success this year), and I think Maclin will be second fiddle to Jackson, though he'll still put up excellent numbers. For the record, I own Harvin, Nicks, Britt, and Thomas. Thomas may seem high, but I advocated for him before and after the draft and think that there's plenty of opportunity in Jacksonville for him to stand out. Edited by lyon812

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That chart looked better in the preview post than it ended up looking when posted. Bottom line:H2H since after week 2 of 2007 (Chad J. was admittedly dominant those first two games):2007 Johnson wins 7-5-2 head to head matchups against Mason (133-113 Johnson in total points)2008, Mason wins 14-2 (119-57 Mason in total points)2009, Mason wins 7-6 (121-109 Ochocinco in total points)But of course, 2008 doesn't count, right? Is someone Derrick Mason beats better than half the time on a consistent basis worth any sort of dynasty investment?For this year, Ochocinco leads in average points by almost exactly 1 point per week. Mason has been better 7/13 weeks.

Why cherry pick only this time period?
That's the every day reality since mid-September 2007? Why would anything earlier than that influence what's going to happen in week 15 of this year? This year's numbers show 85 vs. Mason as preciously close to a wash? How could that be possible for a "#13 WR" compared to a old, forgotten guy like Mason?

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That chart looked better in the preview post than it ended up looking when posted. Bottom line:H2H since after week 2 of 2007 (Chad J. was admittedly dominant those first two games):2007 Johnson wins 7-5-2 head to head matchups against Mason (133-113 Johnson in total points)2008, Mason wins 14-2 (119-57 Mason in total points)2009, Mason wins 7-6 (121-109 Ochocinco in total points)But of course, 2008 doesn't count, right? Is someone Derrick Mason beats better than half the time on a consistent basis worth any sort of dynasty investment?For this year, Ochocinco leads in average points by almost exactly 1 point per week. Mason has been better 7/13 weeks.

For the love of god, please STOP! We get it- you don't like Ocho Cinco, you don't think he is valuable, and you feel the starting wide receivers from your local high school team have as much or more dynasty value as him. You are dead wrong and have continued to be made to look like a fool by SSOG and others on the subject (SSOG, you should have left up the post you edited out. I read it before your edit and it was well put together), but that is beside the point now. You are not right about this, you are never going to make yourself look right, and continued posting on the subject only serves to further damage any credibility you may have on future arguments. I have not had to use the ignore feature from anyone in this thread yet, as the knowledge is generally very good and insightful from most every poster, but you are coming dangerously close to becoming the first.
So how, then, if I'm SOOOO wrong about Ochocinco, is 85 only averaging less than one point per week better than a forgettable Derrick Mason, who has actually outscored him head to head in the majority of the games this year?It's not at ALL that I'm 'wrong' that 85's nothing special in dynasty. It's that I'm BLATHERING ON AND ON ABOUT IT when it's perfectly obvious and there are FAR, FAR more important things to discuss hear.

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F&L one completely owned me several years back in a debate about Heath Miller vs. Vernon Davis.

I pounded a drum hard that Heath Miller was SOOO much better than Davis because Davis was terrible week in/week out and Miller was mediocre.

F&L pointed out that Vernon D. had a 10x better shot at being a top 3 guy at the TE position, and, at some point a "difference maker".

I am very confident in pointing out that on any sort of consistent basis, Chad 85 will never again be a fantasy football difference maker.

To the "slow and steady wins the race" crowd, that AIN'T a dynasty recipe.

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That chart looked better in the preview post than it ended up looking when posted. Bottom line:H2H since after week 2 of 2007 (Chad J. was admittedly dominant those first two games):2007 Johnson wins 7-5-2 head to head matchups against Mason (133-113 Johnson in total points)2008, Mason wins 14-2 (119-57 Mason in total points)2009, Mason wins 7-6 (121-109 Ochocinco in total points)But of course, 2008 doesn't count, right? Is someone Derrick Mason beats better than half the time on a consistent basis worth any sort of dynasty investment?For this year, Ochocinco leads in average points by almost exactly 1 point per week. Mason has been better 7/13 weeks.

Why cherry pick only this time period?
If he only goes back a year or two it actually helps his case more. Do you really think what happened 4 years ago is really relevant anymore?
I think 4 years ago is more relevant than 2 years ago. That was a complete trainwreck. The rest of Chad's career has been nothing short of stellar.

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That chart looked better in the preview post than it ended up looking when posted. Bottom line:H2H since after week 2 of 2007 (Chad J. was admittedly dominant those first two games):2007 Johnson wins 7-5-2 head to head matchups against Mason (133-113 Johnson in total points)2008, Mason wins 14-2 (119-57 Mason in total points)2009, Mason wins 7-6 (121-109 Ochocinco in total points)But of course, 2008 doesn't count, right? Is someone Derrick Mason beats better than half the time on a consistent basis worth any sort of dynasty investment?For this year, Ochocinco leads in average points by almost exactly 1 point per week. Mason has been better 7/13 weeks.

Why cherry pick only this time period?
If he only goes back a year or two it actually helps his case more. Do you really think what happened 4 years ago is really relevant anymore?
I think 4 years ago is more relevant than 2 years ago. That was a complete trainwreck. The rest of Chad's career has been nothing short of stellar.
You really honestly think 85's old old #'s are some harbinger of his future fantasy success? Are you similarly high on Torry Holt? L. Coles?Again, again, (again), I REALLY don't get the "geez, dude was a pro bowler ALL THE TIME until the time where he kind of just, uhm, wasn't" argument about a 30-sumthing WR's dynasty prospects.

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That chart looked better in the preview post than it ended up looking when posted. Bottom line:H2H since after week 2 of 2007 (Chad J. was admittedly dominant those first two games):2007 Johnson wins 7-5-2 head to head matchups against Mason (133-113 Johnson in total points)2008, Mason wins 14-2 (119-57 Mason in total points)2009, Mason wins 7-6 (121-109 Ochocinco in total points)But of course, 2008 doesn't count, right? Is someone Derrick Mason beats better than half the time on a consistent basis worth any sort of dynasty investment?For this year, Ochocinco leads in average points by almost exactly 1 point per week. Mason has been better 7/13 weeks.

Why cherry pick only this time period?
If he only goes back a year or two it actually helps his case more. Do you really think what happened 4 years ago is really relevant anymore?
I think 4 years ago is more relevant than 2 years ago. That was a complete trainwreck. The rest of Chad's career has been nothing short of stellar.
Come on. I'm certainly not wanting to side with Homer in this or any debate, but what Chad did in the 2006 season is not at all relevant to his dynasty prospects right now. He's 3 years older, and the personnel and system around him has changed. It's open for debate how much you want to weigh what he did in 2008, but 2006 is water that long ago passed under the bridge.

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That chart looked better in the preview post than it ended up looking when posted. Bottom line:H2H since after week 2 of 2007 (Chad J. was admittedly dominant those first two games):2007 Johnson wins 7-5-2 head to head matchups against Mason (133-113 Johnson in total points)2008, Mason wins 14-2 (119-57 Mason in total points)2009, Mason wins 7-6 (121-109 Ochocinco in total points)But of course, 2008 doesn't count, right? Is someone Derrick Mason beats better than half the time on a consistent basis worth any sort of dynasty investment?For this year, Ochocinco leads in average points by almost exactly 1 point per week. Mason has been better 7/13 weeks.

Why cherry pick only this time period?
If he only goes back a year or two it actually helps his case more. Do you really think what happened 4 years ago is really relevant anymore?
I think 4 years ago is more relevant than 2 years ago. That was a complete trainwreck. The rest of Chad's career has been nothing short of stellar.
Come on. I'm certainly not wanting to side with Homer in this or any debate, but what Chad did in the 2006 season is not at all relevant to his dynasty prospects right now. He's 3 years older, and the personnel and system around him has changed. It's open for debate how much you want to weigh what he did in 2008, but 2006 is water that long ago passed under the bridge.
My point was cherry picking certain years to make a point. And truthfully, Chad right now is closer to the Chad of 4 years ago than he is to the Chad of 2 years ago.

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I think 4 years ago is more relevant than 2 years ago. That was a complete trainwreck. The rest of Chad's career has been nothing short of stellar.

Come on. I'm certainly not wanting to side with Homer in this or any debate, but what Chad did in the 2006 season is not at all relevant to his dynasty prospects right now. He's 3 years older, and the personnel and system around him has changed. It's open for debate how much you want to weigh what he did in 2008, but 2006 is water that long ago passed under the bridge.
My point was cherry picking certain years to make a point. And truthfully, Chad right now is closer to the Chad of 4 years ago than he is to the Chad of 2 years ago.
This is a dynasty thread, right? Are you really telling me you think what Chad did in 2006, in his prime at age 28 (and oh by the way when Palmer was also in his prime, pre-injury), is relevant to his *dynasty* (read: 2010 and beyond) prospects? Really?I say again, come on man. I think you have gotten yourself caught up in this debate and you're not really thinking about what you are posting.

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Anyone care to rank these rookie wideouts in the order they like 'em in dynasty?Hakeem NicksMichael CrabtreePercy HarvinJeremy MaclinKenny BrittJohnny KnoxMike WallaceThat's actually how I'd rank them -- I know Harvin is an amazing talent but Nicks just looks like he could be completely unstoppable to me as soon as next season. Feel free to add other rookies (Mike Thomas, Massaquoi, etc.)

1. Crabtree1a. Harvin3. Nicks3a. Britt5. Maclin6. Knox7. Wallace

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Anyone care to rank these rookie wideouts in the order they like 'em in dynasty?Hakeem NicksMichael CrabtreePercy HarvinJeremy MaclinKenny BrittJohnny KnoxMike WallaceThat's actually how I'd rank them -- I know Harvin is an amazing talent but Nicks just looks like he could be completely unstoppable to me as soon as next season. Feel free to add other rookies (Mike Thomas, Massaquoi, etc.)

1. Crabtree1a. Harvin3. Nicks3a. Britt5. Maclin6. Knox7. Wallace
I think Britt has the ability to be a beast. Might be something we have to wait on though.

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I think 4 years ago is more relevant than 2 years ago. That was a complete trainwreck. The rest of Chad's career has been nothing short of stellar.

Come on. I'm certainly not wanting to side with Homer in this or any debate, but what Chad did in the 2006 season is not at all relevant to his dynasty prospects right now. He's 3 years older, and the personnel and system around him has changed. It's open for debate how much you want to weigh what he did in 2008, but 2006 is water that long ago passed under the bridge.
My point was cherry picking certain years to make a point. And truthfully, Chad right now is closer to the Chad of 4 years ago than he is to the Chad of 2 years ago.
This is a dynasty thread, right? Are you really telling me you think what Chad did in 2006, in his prime at age 28 (and oh by the way when Palmer was also in his prime, pre-injury), is relevant to his *dynasty* (read: 2010 and beyond) prospects? Really?I say again, come on man. I think you have gotten yourself caught up in this debate and you're not really thinking about what you are posting.
I know I called for the Ochocinco conversation to die, but this is a different discussion entirely. How relevant are yesterday's numbers to tomorrow's success?For Ochocinco, it's not so much about yesterday's NUMBERS as it is about yesterday's PRODUCTION. In his 20s, he was a 5-time pro bowler and a 2-time first-team AP All Pro. Yes, he was playing with a pre-injury Palmer and the entire passing offense was more potent, but that kind of high-level production puts him into an "archetype"- the "multiple pro bowler" archetype. It establishes a talent level (i.e. very, very talented). Historically, WRs from that archetype and talent level age very well, so Chad Ochocinco's 2003-2006 production leads me to believe that he will age very well. I'm not so much concerned with exactly how many yards or TDs he scored back then as I am with the fact that he was very talented and very productive.Moreover, the fact that he is producing comparable numbers today as he was 4 years ago leads me to believe that the talent is still there, as is the potential for productivity (you know, since he's actually producing and all). So yes, I think his 2006 numbers are relevant to his 2010 outlook, just like I think that Randy Moss's 2007 season is relevant to his 2010 outlook. Eventually, I will start discounting those two guys' projections due to age, but even then, their peak production will still be relevant, since I'll be projecting them based on a percentage of their peak.

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I think Britt has the ability to be a beast. Might be something we have to wait on though.

I agree that Britt has the ability to be a beast. So does Nicks. So does Crabtree. So does Harvin. There's no shame in ranking 4th in this year's WR class, any more than there'd be any shame to say that Mendenhall ranks 4th in last year's RB class. Sure, he's the fourth best RB from that class... but he's behind CJ3, Stewart, and Ray Rice. Lots and lots and lots of RBs are going to finish 4th to that trio. I still think that Britt is a very good WR who is well worth acquiring, just like I think that Mendenhall is a very good RB who is also well worth acquiring.

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