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I have a question for you guys. If your Rookie/FA draft were next week.....Where do you project FA's like Jamal Charles, Malcolm Floyd, Brandon Gibson and Devin Aromashodu?

Depends on scoring system etc., but based on my experience in a league that does this and what I think of these guys:Charles would top 5, top 10 worst (I find people still like rookies more and there are legitimate concerns about Charles)Floyd - mid 2nd to 3rd (only slightly higher because he is the most familiar name of the WR)Gibson- late 2nd to someowhere in the 3rd (lots other young Wrs and serious QB/OL questions)Aromashodu- late 2nd to somewhere in the 3rd (The same as Gibson with an inconsistent QB versus unknown)
Just goes to show, as F&L and others I think have mentioned in this thread, how little rookie draft picks outside top 5/6 and even more so outside the first round are worth. Depending on your league size and roster requirements Floyd, Gibson, Aromashodu are nice stash and wait players, but they are all borderline waiver wire guys.
Essentially, most rookies are stash and wait players, so in many cases drafting a 2nd or 3rd year player (especially WR/TE) shortens the period of figuring out if you have something. In one league, I saw Garcon, Schilens and Celek go bewteen 26-31overall, around players like Gartrell Johnosn, Pat White. After that point there were a couple owner who found Johnny Know and Mike Wallace, but your were more likely to draft Bardeen or Peerman. The key is not just being able to rank the rookies, but also place their talent among the pool of all NFL guys.

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This reminds me a lot of the arguments against DWill last year (though I guess they were right in some ways). My point is that Jackson has shown that he is a unique player, setting records in only his second year. Why use this against him and say there is no way he can keep it up? Give me a better argument about why he'll regress that isn't "nobody else has these types of seasons with any consistency."

Why? Personally, I think that's a pretty airtight argument right there. You mention DeAngelo Williams as some sort of counterpoint, but you're really just reinforcing my point. Williams had 20 TDs last year. This year he has seven. SEVEN! Yeah, Williams is still an awesome talent, but his TDs are way down because... everyone say it with me now... "nobody has those types of seasons with any consistency".

Desean Jackson will in all likelihood never again approach 6 TDs of 60+ yards in a single season, or 8 TDs of 50+ yards, or 9 TDs of 48+ yards in a single season ever again. Why not? Because the NFL has been around for a long, long, long time, and there have been a lot of very, very talented WRs, and none of them have ever managed to do what Desean did this season, let alone do it with any regularity. Will he always be among the league leaders in long TDs? Absolutely- that's what he does. He might even manage to pull off a miracle season like this one once more before he retires. But you can't count on him having a season like this again. like Chris Johnson will likely never have 2000 yards and/or 6+ yards per carry ever again in his entire career. Or how Vernon Davis probably isn't putting up a dozen scores again anytime soon.

Can Desean still be a very valuable fantasy asset without replicating this year's success deep? Absolutely. In fact, I could see him possibly surpassing this season's fantasy totals if he continues to develop his short-to-intermediate game (which is not at all out of the question- remember, Jackson is only in his second year!). I'm just saying, don't see this year's success deep and take it for granted. This type of season comes along once a career.

So would you trade Chris Johnson or Desean Jackson now? or DWill after his 2008 season? The logic is that any monster season is outlier and unlikely to be repeated, so the player's value is at the absolute highest. Basically, is an amazing season evidence of a player's great talent and therefore a reason to hold? Or a signal that value is the highest it will ever be for his career and therefore reason to sell?

Examples: Priest Holmes 27, Shaun Alexander 28, LT 33, Moss 23, Manning 49, Brady 50. CJ's season should be in the same context. DeSean in 2009 and DWill in 2008 had great seasons, but not record breaking.

You would've done well selling most of these guys after the monster year. And Faulk after he set the record that CJ is now breaking, and DWill, too, as 20 TDs is probably the ceiling for his career.

But CJ and DSsean are different. Both are younger than most of these, and both have great talent and situation. For CJ, another 2k+ combined/12+ TD season is possible, but duplicating the sort of season he's having now is unlikely. DeSean certainly hasn't reached his ceiling. You could expect him to repeat or improve on 70/1200/10.

If you want to project forward, I think it's important that you look behind the numbers and understand where they are coming from. The key point to understand here is that TDs are by far the most variable offensive stat from year to year, and as a result have the most impact in terms of up/down years.

Let's look at LT's prime years from 2001-2007 as compared to his record-setting 2006 season. Except for the 100 year catch in 2003, he was pretty consistent with the receptions (as CJ has been so far), so let's focus on the rushing numbers. In other years, he averaged 342/1529/16.6; in 2006, he put up 349/1815/28 for 5.2 YPC. So, his total FPs (in non-PPR) were up 34%, but his carries were only up 2%, YPC up 16%, and rush yards up 18%. Where did most of those points come from? TDs, of course, which were 68% higher than his career average. Not only were the numbers up, the TDs per touch rate was up 55%... scoring once every 12 carries vs. a career average of once per 22 carries. To put this in perspective - in order to score 28 TDs at the rate he had the rest of his career, he would have had to have 634 carries.

Similarly, when you look at DeAngelo's numbers from 2008 to 2009, his YPC have remained fairly consistent (7% better in 2008), but his TDs were 157% better in 2008. Even accounting for the fact that he had 27% more touches that year, his TD rate per touch was 50% higher in 2008.

By comparison, let's look at what Chris Johnson has shown so far. In his rookie year, he averaged 4.9 YPC, and now he's averaged 5.8 YPC. We should note that CJ's YPC as a rookie was better than all but 2 years of LT. As a rookie, he finished as RB11 with 192 pts in a non-PPR. RB1 (DeAngelo) scored 255. In his second year, CJ has 304 pts so far - good for RB1.

So, even if you dismiss this as a "record" year that won't happen again, what kind of regression do you expect?

Let's project forward, making a few assumptions:

A) he goes back to his 4.8 YPC as a rookie (this is assuming that the imrpovement was luck and not improvemetn on his part and on how he is being used). I realize this is a very high YPC to expect as an absolute number, but frankly there's no reason to expect much

B) he gets around 300 carries as a primary back (a reasonable number, especially since he really doesn't take many hits in comparison to other backs who may get those kinds of touches)

C) his total TDs stay around 10, which is more than reasonable for a playmaker and feature back

D) his involvement in the passing game is roughly similar

If you assume his total TDs stays around 10, his carries remain around 300, and his YPC drops back to his rookie level (4.9 YPC) That's good for 255 pts - which would have put him right with D-Will last year as RB1, but without a dependency on TDs (and would have been a top 5 perormance in most years). Even if you assume his YPC will drop to 4.2 - he's still putting up around 230 pts with that level of work, and top 10 RB numbers.

So, assuming a HUGE regression, and no improvement in TDs, you're looking at a floor of RB5-10.... and this is also assuming non-PPR since his 40-50 catches are worth somethig there too.

That said, when I watch CJ, I see someone special... so if ANYONE can keep up these insane YPC, I think he has a shot. We all know he has elite speed, but he is also a very patient runner and sets up his blocks well. He doesn't just try to outrun people. I also posted this last year, but among all the starting RBs, he had the best 10/40 split... I don't have the numbers here but it was something like 27% ... meaning that not only is he the fastest, but he also gets to full speed almost immediately. I truly believe that when his career is over we'll be including him in the "best backs ever" conversation.

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:goodposting:

I may not have been very clear in my original response, but this is what i was trying to get at. CJ is a hold despite his record setting year, because his record is fundamentally different from the high-TD seasons. He may regress, but he could also have an outlier TD season in his future, too. And this demonstrates very clearly that even a regression leaves him very near the top.

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I'm thinking the Raven #2 RB will have some value in 2010. IMO Parmele will be the guy to own as the back up to Rice, basically the 2010+ version of McGahee. How do you guys feel, is McClain or Parmele the Raven back up to own as long as Willis is gone?Fantasy DST's are hard to predict year to year but at this stage is it crazy to put the young upside of Houston over the Saints for 2010?

So are you saying Parleme would be the goal-line choice over Rice? I don't see that happening, especially since Rice proved at Rutgers that he was a goal-line stud. I could see McClain possibly sliding back over at the stripe, but I can't see Parmele doing it.I'd prefer the Texans D/ST to the Saints from 2010 on.
No not the goal line RB, more like the handcuff to Rice. If Rice was to go down I'm thinking Parmele would have the most value as a complete RB. It would be nice if one RB was to fill the McGahee role but it sounds like Parmele would not fill the goal line duties.

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I think the comparisons of DeSean Jackson to Lee Evans are absurd.

:lmao: Also their situations couldn't be more different and really that's all that has held Evans back in my opinion.Philly could lose McNabb, Westbrook, Maclin and Celek today, and still have a better offense than anything Evans has had in Buffalo.

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Alright I am the one that asked about Charles, Floyd, Gibson and Aromashodu in the Rookie/FA draft. I am attaching the scoring system below. Also I have some questions about dynasty moves because most of the guys I enjoy reading about in this thread don't often post over in the pool. The powers that be in my league who tell everyone who is worth what instructed what it would take for me to go get someone and what people should have to pay to get someone off of my team. So below I am going to list some trade offer/proposals and am very anxious to hear some responses. Looking forward to reading. Happy New Year

A. I give Mendy, Forte and Boldin for Ray Rice

B. I give Mendy and Donald Brown for V-Jax

C. I give Mendy, Donald and B. Marshall for MJD and Crabtree

.5 PPR, .1 per yard receiving, 4.0 TD

-(.4) per rush attempt, .2 per yard, 4.0 TD

Edited by mstumpy50

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I have a question for you guys. If your Rookie/FA draft were next week.....Where do you project FA's like Jamal Charles, Malcolm Floyd, Brandon Gibson and Devin Aromashodu?

Depends on scoring system etc., but based on my experience in a league that does this and what I think of these guys:

Charles would top 5, top 10 worst (I find people still like rookies more and there are legitimate concerns about Charles)

Floyd - mid 2nd to 3rd (only slightly higher because he is the most familiar name of the WR)

Gibson- late 2nd to someowhere in the 3rd (lots other young Wrs and serious QB/OL questions)

Aromashodu- late 2nd to somewhere in the 3rd (The same as Gibson with an inconsistent QB versus unknown)

Just goes to show, as F&L and others I think have mentioned in this thread, how little rookie draft picks outside top 5/6 and even more so outside the first round are worth. Depending on your league size and roster requirements Floyd, Gibson, Aromashodu are nice stash and wait players, but they are all borderline waiver wire guys.
:banned: If you know what you're doing and have some luck you can get elite players after the top 6 picks. Just look at the top performers in any league and I doubt you'll find more than 2 or 3 top 10 players that were drafted top 6 in a rookie draft. Top 20 might have 6, top 30 probably 9. There's LOTS of good players available later, just prepare to have some duds.

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http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/v...mp;howrecent=14

Why does Jeff Pasquino think Chris Henry has more dynasty potential then the following? Does he know something the rest of us don't know?

as of 12/30/09

69 WR Chris Henry, CIN 69 * 69.0 69.0 69.0 DEAD

70 WR Mike Thomas, JAX 70 46 70.0 70.0 70.0

71 WR Brian Robiskie, CLE 71 * 71.0 71.0 71.0

72 WR Brandon Tate, NE 72 55 72.0 72.0 72.0

73 WR Domenik Hixon, NYG 73 * 73.0 73.0 73.0

74 WR Juaquin Iglesias, CHI 74 * 74.0 74.0 74.0

75 WR Danny Woodhead, NYJ 75 * 75.0 75.0 75.0

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http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/v...mp;howrecent=14

Why does Jeff Pasquino think Chris Henry has more dynasty potential then the following? Does he know something the rest of us don't know?

as of 12/30/09

69 WR Chris Henry, CIN 69 * 69.0 69.0 69.0 DEAD

70 WR Mike Thomas, JAX 70 46 70.0 70.0 70.0

71 WR Brian Robiskie, CLE 71 * 71.0 71.0 71.0

72 WR Brandon Tate, NE 72 55 72.0 72.0 72.0

73 WR Domenik Hixon, NYG 73 * 73.0 73.0 73.0

74 WR Juaquin Iglesias, CHI 74 * 74.0 74.0 74.0

75 WR Danny Woodhead, NYJ 75 * 75.0 75.0 75.0

My apologies, that was an obvious oversight. Corrected.

Feel free to PM me next time if I err so poorly next time and I'll get it fixed.

Happy New Year.

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I don't think he's saying sell CJ, rather he was just using him as an example of a guy that won't put up those near record breaking numbers again, because realistically people just don't do that.The difference between LT, Faulk, Alexander, Peyton, Brady, etc and DeSean Jackson is that even when you take away those record breaking statistics and bring them back down to their typical (still near league leading) range, you're still left with a stud. You take away Peyton's 48 TDs and bring them back down to 30, and he's still a stud. You take away LT's 31 TDs and bring them back down to 16, and he's still a stud. Etc. They have the other stats to supplement that.Jackson's "outlier" isn't a total TDs or total yards outlier like those guys, that is supplemented by other stats, and that even when brought down to just top 5 in the league still leaves him with great stats. His "outlier" is more akin to the TDs per reception outlier that came with guys like Lee Evans and Donte Stallworth early in their careers (and that comes with Robert Meachem right now, who is also a sell in my book).With DeSean, you're looking at a 1200/10 guy who needed to smash a record just to get to that. You take away his ridiculous number of long TDs (which WILL happen, you won't break the record every year) and bring them back down to even just "near the league lead", and what are you left with? Not much.That's not to say that Jackson can't develop into more consistent type guy who doesn't rely on those big plays, but that's something he's going to have to do no different than dozens of other WRs that haven't had record breaking long TD years to supplement what they lack in that department.Personally if I owned Jackson I would be in bigtime sell mode right now. I would not be in the least bit surprised if he ends up with a similar (but slightly better) career path to Lee Evans. A guy that might have two 1200 yard seasons over the course of 5 years, but puts up 700-800 yards in the other 3.

In my mind, the only way Desean delivers on that "3 seasons of 700-800 yards" prediction is if he's forced to play 3 years with Trent Edwards, a la Evans. Evans would totally be a consistent 1000+ yard a year WR if he only played actual NFL football for an actual NFL football team with an actual NFL offense. Put him in Denver, or Seattle, or, yes, Philadelphia, and suddenly Evans would be producing Santonio Holmes-type numbers on a consistent basis. Same thing for Desean- unless Philly replaces McNabb with a total stiff, I think he's a relatively safe play on a year-to-year basis, albeit one who won't often hit the explosive upside that he demonstrated this season.

:D If you know what you're doing and have some luck you can get elite players after the top 6 picks. Just look at the top performers in any league and I doubt you'll find more than 2 or 3 top 10 players that were drafted top 6 in a rookie draft. Top 20 might have 6, top 30 probably 9. There's LOTS of good players available later, just prepare to have some duds.

I think "top 6" is the wrong breakpoint. To me, the "money picks" are generally the top 3. Sometimes only the top 2. It depends a lot on the particular draft. For instance, in the Adrian Peterson draft, it was clear as day that Peterson, Calvin, and Lynch were a thousand lightyears better than everyone else, so the #3 pick should have been worth dramatically more than the #4 pick. On the other hand, this past season, there really wasn't any elite tier at all. I liked a bunch of guys, but there weren't many guys that I viewed as must-own, can't-miss prospects on par with Peterson, Calvin, Fitzgerald, or Stewart. Which means there were no "money picks", and anyone that's not a "money pick" is a "lottery pick".Anyway, the difference between the "money picks" and the "lottery picks" isn't necessarily one of upside (although money picks do have a much higher chance of returning a true uberstud of a Peterson or Calvin caliber), it's one of reliability. Money picks bust at a much, much lower rate than the lottery picks, and even if they do bust they generally have a window of fantasy value owing entirely to their workload and opportunity. Just look at some of recent "money picks" that haven't panned out- Mendenhall was thought to be a bust, but he's shown that it's far too early to write him off. Lynch already has a pair of top 15 seasons to his name. Stewart hasn't been a reliable fantasy starter yet, but he's flashed so much potential that it's obvious he will be. Reggie Bush has been a bust, but he's still at least given two RB2 seasons and two RB3 seasons (as well as a chance for any owners to recoup some value from him over the past 2 years, since his trade value was slow to fall). Roy Williams actually posted a top 10 season once... honest! Yes, there is the occasional Charles Rodgers or Laurence Maroney, but when you're talking about the real money picks, those are far more the exception than the rule.

My apologies, that was an obvious oversight. Corrected.Feel free to PM me next time if I err so poorly next time and I'll get it fixed.Happy New Year.

Hey Pasquino, good to see you in the thread. You should drop by and chime in more often, I'm always interested in your perspective on dynasty. :lmao:

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http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/v...mp;howrecent=14

Why does Jeff Pasquino think Chris Henry has more dynasty potential then the following? Does he know something the rest of us don't know?

as of 12/30/09

69 WR Chris Henry, CIN 69 * 69.0 69.0 69.0 DEAD

70 WR Mike Thomas, JAX 70 46 70.0 70.0 70.0

71 WR Brian Robiskie, CLE 71 * 71.0 71.0 71.0

72 WR Brandon Tate, NE 72 55 72.0 72.0 72.0

73 WR Domenik Hixon, NYG 73 * 73.0 73.0 73.0

74 WR Juaquin Iglesias, CHI 74 * 74.0 74.0 74.0

75 WR Danny Woodhead, NYJ 75 * 75.0 75.0 75.0

My apologies, that was an obvious oversight. Corrected.

Feel free to PM me next time if I err so poorly next time and I'll get it fixed.

Happy New Year.

Cut the good man some slack, here. The last month can be especially time consuming for the fantasy football writer masquerading as a family man simultaneously attempting to have a successful social life for a month. The occasional oversight should be expected. Lord knows I didn't get as much done fantasy football-wise as I would have hoped during the holiday season.

Happy New Year,

F&L

Your SOFA League Champ, 2009

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I am sorry most of my friends can and expect a little busting on when they make an error from the rest of us - All in fun - I just thought Jeff might be making a statement that the WRs he ranked below Henry weren't any better than a dead man. My mistake either way

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Wide Receiver ranks are finally fully updated with ages reflecting 2010.

As usual, I feel pretty good about the WR ranks up until about No. 30 or so . . . when roster situation, scoring specifics, and personal favorites take over as the determining factors.

Edited by Fear & Loathing

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Wide Receiver ranks are finally fully updated with ages reflecting 2010. As usual, I feel pretty good about the WR ranks up until about No. 30 or so . . . when roster situation, scoring specifics, and personal favorites are the determining factors.

:fishing:

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Wide Receiver ranks are finally fully updated with ages reflecting 2010. As usual, I feel pretty good about the WR ranks up until about No. 30 or so . . . when roster situation, scoring specifics, and personal favorites are the determining factors.

:lmao:
I let out a holler in excitement when I visited the blog this morning. Thanks F/L!! I am hoping you guys can help me gauge the current dynasty value of next years rookie class in particular Ryan Mathews. I play in a dynasty league where we draft developmental players and last year I drafted Ryan Mathews in the fourth round. Now that Ryan Mathews is on everyone's radar, I have owners trying to acquire him for current NFL players. I have the Roddy White owner offering White in exchange for Mathews+ and there is where I am struggling. How much more should I be offering for a player who has yet to even run at the combine? What do you guys think? Edited by Rodeojones

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I am hoping you guys can help me gauge the current dynasty value of next years rookie class in particular Ryan Mathews. I play in a dynasty league where we draft developmental players and last year I drafted Ryan Mathews in the fourth round. Now that Ryan Mathews is on everyone's radar, I have owners trying to acquire him for current NFL players. I have the Roddy White owner offering White in exchange for Mathews+ and there is where I am struggling. How much more should I be offering for a player who has yet to even run at the combine? What do you guys think?

Roddy White is a borderline top-5 / definite top-10 dynasty WR. I don't scout college players like EBF and co, but unless Ryan Matthews is a Larry Fitzgerald/Calvin Johnson/Charles Rodgers level prospect, his value shouldn't be anywhere NEAR White's. I'd give up two first rounders for Roddy White without blinking. Take what you want from that.

People don't change that easily, and if they do, they don't change overnight- which is what Brandon Marshall did after dogging it in practices this offseason. To me, it seems that the only positive change Marshall has made is hiring a better PR team.

Seemed like an appropriate time to bump this quote.

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The difference between LT, Faulk, Alexander, Peyton, Brady, etc and DeSean Jackson is that even when you take away those record breaking statistics and bring them back down to their typical (still near league leading) range, you're still left with a stud. You take away Peyton's 48 TDs and bring them back down to 30, and he's still a stud. You take away LT's 31 TDs and bring them back down to 16, and he's still a stud. Etc. They have the other stats to supplement that.Jackson's "outlier" isn't a total TDs or total yards outlier like those guys, that is supplemented by other stats, and that even when brought down to just top 5 in the league still leaves him with great stats. His "outlier" is more akin to the TDs per reception outlier that came with guys like Lee Evans and Donte Stallworth early in their careers (and that comes with Robert Meachem right now, who is also a sell in my book).With DeSean, you're looking at a 1200/10 guy who needed to smash a record just to get to that. You take away his ridiculous number of long TDs (which WILL happen, you won't break the record every year) and bring them back down to even just "near the league lead", and what are you left with? Not much.That's not to say that Jackson can't develop into more consistent type guy who doesn't rely on those big plays, but that's something he's going to have to do no different than dozens of other WRs that haven't had record breaking long TD years to supplement what they lack in that department.Personally if I owned Jackson I would be in bigtime sell mode right now. I would not be in the least bit surprised if he ends up with a similar (but slightly better) career path to Lee Evans. A guy that might have two 1200 yard seasons over the course of 5 years, but puts up 700-800 yards in the other 3.

That is very :shrug:
Some good points, I'll agree. But something to consider is that it is hard to place value on a player's "heart and determination", their will to succeed, in other words. There is something a little different here in Jackson, I truly believe this kid is truly a beast, he just happens to come in a small pkg. I wouldn't think that his '09 numbers with regards to the long TDs is repeatable in their frequency, but I do believe that he will be as consistent of a big-play playmaker as there is in the league. In my 30+ years of watching football, DeSean is right there towards the very top in being the most electric/dynamic player I've ever seen with the football in his hands. To me, that means quite a bit as far as continual playmaking and thus his value is not diminished due to the common belief that this year in "non-repeatable"..... My pretty short quick list of most electric ever.....not necessarily in orderBarry SandersGale SayersBo JacksonChris JohnsonDeSean JacksonEric Metcalf Edited by kremenull

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The difference between LT, Faulk, Alexander, Peyton, Brady, etc and DeSean Jackson is that even when you take away those record breaking statistics and bring them back down to their typical (still near league leading) range, you're still left with a stud. You take away Peyton's 48 TDs and bring them back down to 30, and he's still a stud. You take away LT's 31 TDs and bring them back down to 16, and he's still a stud. Etc. They have the other stats to supplement that.Jackson's "outlier" isn't a total TDs or total yards outlier like those guys, that is supplemented by other stats, and that even when brought down to just top 5 in the league still leaves him with great stats. His "outlier" is more akin to the TDs per reception outlier that came with guys like Lee Evans and Donte Stallworth early in their careers (and that comes with Robert Meachem right now, who is also a sell in my book).With DeSean, you're looking at a 1200/10 guy who needed to smash a record just to get to that. You take away his ridiculous number of long TDs (which WILL happen, you won't break the record every year) and bring them back down to even just "near the league lead", and what are you left with? Not much.That's not to say that Jackson can't develop into more consistent type guy who doesn't rely on those big plays, but that's something he's going to have to do no different than dozens of other WRs that haven't had record breaking long TD years to supplement what they lack in that department.Personally if I owned Jackson I would be in bigtime sell mode right now. I would not be in the least bit surprised if he ends up with a similar (but slightly better) career path to Lee Evans. A guy that might have two 1200 yard seasons over the course of 5 years, but puts up 700-800 yards in the other 3.

That is very :shrug:
Some good points, I'll agree. But something to consider is that it is hard to place value on a player's "heart and determination", their will to succeed, in other words. There is something a little different here in Jackson, I truly believe this kid is truly a beast, he just happens to come in a small pkg. I wouldn't think that his '09 numbers with regards to the long TDs is repeatable in their frequency, but I do believe that he will be as consistent of a big-play playmaker as there is in the league. In my 30+ years of watching football, DeSean is right there towards the very top in being the most electric/dynamic player I've ever seen with the football in his hands. To me, that means quite a bit as far as continual playmaking and thus his value is not diminished due to the common belief that this year in "non-repeatable".....
That was my point though. Even if he is top 3 in the league in "big plays" every year, the difference between that and and the number of big plays he had this year is still enough to kill his fantasy value unless he develops more consistent production outside of the big plays.It is not my intent to say this year was a fluke, he'll never make a big play again. The point is that even if he is still "great" in the big play category, the difference between "great" and "record breaking" probably knocks at least 200/4 off his numbers. Knocking 200/4 off of 1200/10 doesn't leave you with much.

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The difference between LT, Faulk, Alexander, Peyton, Brady, etc and DeSean Jackson is that even when you take away those record breaking statistics and bring them back down to their typical (still near league leading) range, you're still left with a stud. You take away Peyton's 48 TDs and bring them back down to 30, and he's still a stud. You take away LT's 31 TDs and bring them back down to 16, and he's still a stud. Etc. They have the other stats to supplement that.Jackson's "outlier" isn't a total TDs or total yards outlier like those guys, that is supplemented by other stats, and that even when brought down to just top 5 in the league still leaves him with great stats. His "outlier" is more akin to the TDs per reception outlier that came with guys like Lee Evans and Donte Stallworth early in their careers (and that comes with Robert Meachem right now, who is also a sell in my book).With DeSean, you're looking at a 1200/10 guy who needed to smash a record just to get to that. You take away his ridiculous number of long TDs (which WILL happen, you won't break the record every year) and bring them back down to even just "near the league lead", and what are you left with? Not much.That's not to say that Jackson can't develop into more consistent type guy who doesn't rely on those big plays, but that's something he's going to have to do no different than dozens of other WRs that haven't had record breaking long TD years to supplement what they lack in that department.Personally if I owned Jackson I would be in bigtime sell mode right now. I would not be in the least bit surprised if he ends up with a similar (but slightly better) career path to Lee Evans. A guy that might have two 1200 yard seasons over the course of 5 years, but puts up 700-800 yards in the other 3.

That is very :shrug:
Some good points, I'll agree. But something to consider is that it is hard to place value on a player's "heart and determination", their will to succeed, in other words. There is something a little different here in Jackson, I truly believe this kid is truly a beast, he just happens to come in a small pkg. I wouldn't think that his '09 numbers with regards to the long TDs is repeatable in their frequency, but I do believe that he will be as consistent of a big-play playmaker as there is in the league. In my 30+ years of watching football, DeSean is right there towards the very top in being the most electric/dynamic player I've ever seen with the football in his hands. To me, that means quite a bit as far as continual playmaking and thus his value is not diminished due to the common belief that this year in "non-repeatable".....
That was my point though. Even if he is top 3 in the league in "big plays" every year, the difference between that and and the number of big plays he had this year is still enough to kill his fantasy value unless he develops more consistent production outside of the big plays.It is not my intent to say this year was a fluke, he'll never make a big play again. The point is that even if he is still "great" in the big play category, the difference between "great" and "record breaking" probably knocks at least 200/4 off his numbers. Knocking 200/4 off of 1200/10 doesn't leave you with much.
Is that the way it has to work? What if his big plays go down but his receptions and red-zone activity go up?

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The difference between LT, Faulk, Alexander, Peyton, Brady, etc and DeSean Jackson is that even when you take away those record breaking statistics and bring them back down to their typical (still near league leading) range, you're still left with a stud. You take away Peyton's 48 TDs and bring them back down to 30, and he's still a stud. You take away LT's 31 TDs and bring them back down to 16, and he's still a stud. Etc. They have the other stats to supplement that.Jackson's "outlier" isn't a total TDs or total yards outlier like those guys, that is supplemented by other stats, and that even when brought down to just top 5 in the league still leaves him with great stats. His "outlier" is more akin to the TDs per reception outlier that came with guys like Lee Evans and Donte Stallworth early in their careers (and that comes with Robert Meachem right now, who is also a sell in my book).With DeSean, you're looking at a 1200/10 guy who needed to smash a record just to get to that. You take away his ridiculous number of long TDs (which WILL happen, you won't break the record every year) and bring them back down to even just "near the league lead", and what are you left with? Not much.That's not to say that Jackson can't develop into more consistent type guy who doesn't rely on those big plays, but that's something he's going to have to do no different than dozens of other WRs that haven't had record breaking long TD years to supplement what they lack in that department.Personally if I owned Jackson I would be in bigtime sell mode right now. I would not be in the least bit surprised if he ends up with a similar (but slightly better) career path to Lee Evans. A guy that might have two 1200 yard seasons over the course of 5 years, but puts up 700-800 yards in the other 3.

That is very :shrug:
Some good points, I'll agree. But something to consider is that it is hard to place value on a player's "heart and determination", their will to succeed, in other words. There is something a little different here in Jackson, I truly believe this kid is truly a beast, he just happens to come in a small pkg. I wouldn't think that his '09 numbers with regards to the long TDs is repeatable in their frequency, but I do believe that he will be as consistent of a big-play playmaker as there is in the league. In my 30+ years of watching football, DeSean is right there towards the very top in being the most electric/dynamic player I've ever seen with the football in his hands. To me, that means quite a bit as far as continual playmaking and thus his value is not diminished due to the common belief that this year in "non-repeatable".....
That was my point though. Even if he is top 3 in the league in "big plays" every year, the difference between that and and the number of big plays he had this year is still enough to kill his fantasy value unless he develops more consistent production outside of the big plays.It is not my intent to say this year was a fluke, he'll never make a big play again. The point is that even if he is still "great" in the big play category, the difference between "great" and "record breaking" probably knocks at least 200/4 off his numbers. Knocking 200/4 off of 1200/10 doesn't leave you with much.
Is that the way it has to work? What if his big plays go down but his receptions and red-zone activity go up?
I believe I mentioned that in the original post:"That's not to say that Jackson can't develop into more consistent type guy who doesn't rely on those big plays, but that's something he's going to have to do no different than dozens of other WRs that haven't had record breaking long TD years to supplement what they lack in that department."It is entirely possible that Jackson develops into a more consistent receiver that puts up good numbers even outside of the big plays, but there are plenty of other guys you could say the same thing about who can be had much cheaper because their perceived value hasn't been boosted to top 5 levels by an unrepeatable number of big plays.

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Great Update F&L. Always look forward to your rankings.

My only question is why do you have Santonio Holmes ranked so low? (at least low in my opinion)

I mean I realize we are splitting hairs with some of these rankings, but I'd rather have Holmes than at least 4-5 guys ranked ahead of him at this point. Steelers are passing a ton lately and Holmes is a good young playmaker with a good young QB, and while Hines keeps playing at a high level, his day is coming.

I think Holmes stacks up well against the majority of your tier 3 guys. Just suprised to see him a whole tier below guys he is out producing. Granted the TDs are down this year, but I could easily see Holmes scoring 10-12 TDs in 2010 along with being top 10 in yardage.

Thoughts...

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The difference between LT, Faulk, Alexander, Peyton, Brady, etc and DeSean Jackson is that even when you take away those record breaking statistics and bring them back down to their typical (still near league leading) range, you're still left with a stud. You take away Peyton's 48 TDs and bring them back down to 30, and he's still a stud. You take away LT's 31 TDs and bring them back down to 16, and he's still a stud. Etc. They have the other stats to supplement that.Jackson's "outlier" isn't a total TDs or total yards outlier like those guys, that is supplemented by other stats, and that even when brought down to just top 5 in the league still leaves him with great stats. His "outlier" is more akin to the TDs per reception outlier that came with guys like Lee Evans and Donte Stallworth early in their careers (and that comes with Robert Meachem right now, who is also a sell in my book).With DeSean, you're looking at a 1200/10 guy who needed to smash a record just to get to that. You take away his ridiculous number of long TDs (which WILL happen, you won't break the record every year) and bring them back down to even just "near the league lead", and what are you left with? Not much.That's not to say that Jackson can't develop into more consistent type guy who doesn't rely on those big plays, but that's something he's going to have to do no different than dozens of other WRs that haven't had record breaking long TD years to supplement what they lack in that department.Personally if I owned Jackson I would be in bigtime sell mode right now. I would not be in the least bit surprised if he ends up with a similar (but slightly better) career path to Lee Evans. A guy that might have two 1200 yard seasons over the course of 5 years, but puts up 700-800 yards in the other 3.

That is very :shrug:
Some good points, I'll agree. But something to consider is that it is hard to place value on a player's "heart and determination", their will to succeed, in other words. There is something a little different here in Jackson, I truly believe this kid is truly a beast, he just happens to come in a small pkg. I wouldn't think that his '09 numbers with regards to the long TDs is repeatable in their frequency, but I do believe that he will be as consistent of a big-play playmaker as there is in the league. In my 30+ years of watching football, DeSean is right there towards the very top in being the most electric/dynamic player I've ever seen with the football in his hands. To me, that means quite a bit as far as continual playmaking and thus his value is not diminished due to the common belief that this year in "non-repeatable".....
That was my point though. Even if he is top 3 in the league in "big plays" every year, the difference between that and and the number of big plays he had this year is still enough to kill his fantasy value unless he develops more consistent production outside of the big plays.It is not my intent to say this year was a fluke, he'll never make a big play again. The point is that even if he is still "great" in the big play category, the difference between "great" and "record breaking" probably knocks at least 200/4 off his numbers. Knocking 200/4 off of 1200/10 doesn't leave you with much.
I don't think you can simply knock 200/4 off of his numbers due to less big plays going forward. That would be assuming he doesn't increase his reception total nor rush yards nor intermediate TDs. DeSean going forward is as good of a bet for Top 10 status each year as Roddy, Jennings, Bowe, V-Jax, Calvin, Boldin, Moss.....basically everybody outside of Fitz, Wayne, and Andre1500. He's actually better than 85% of these guys, they just have size, he makes up for it in dynamic quicks, acceleration, and precision route-running....

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Great Update F&L. Always look forward to your rankings.My only question is why do you have Santonio Holmes ranked so low? (at least low in my opinion)I mean I realize we are splitting hairs with some of these rankings, but I'd rather have Holmes than at least 4-5 guys ranked ahead of him at this point. Steelers are passing a ton lately and Holmes is a good young playmaker with a good young QB, and while Hines keeps playing at a high level, his day is coming. I think Holmes stacks up well against the majority of your tier 3 guys. Just suprised to see him a whole tier below guys he is out producing. Granted the TDs are down this year, but I could easily see Holmes scoring 10-12 TDs in 2010 along with being top 10 in yardage. Thoughts...

I guess I'd have to know who you think should be below him.I don't think he's a double-digit TD guy, so we don't see eye-to-eye there.

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WR19 does seem a bit low for Holmes considering how high Miles Austin is ranked. I think they're pretty similar.

Moss, Wayne, and S. Smith are ranked pretty high for guys whose best football is behind them. They all have more short term upside than Holmes, but he has a lot more longevity potential.

I'm not feeling the Steve Smith love. He's a slightly better version of Santana Moss. Talented, but chronically disappointing for one reason or another. I don't think he belongs a tier ahead of Boldin and Chad. They're all capable of producing WR1 numbers when healthy, but they're all on the backslopes of their careers.

Pretty brutal downgrade for Eddie Royal. He had a pathetic year. No doubt about that, but I'm still a believer in his ability. I think he can be a Holmes/Coles/SMoss type. I would rank him at least 20 spots higher than WR53.

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WR19 does seem a bit low for Holmes considering how high Miles Austin is ranked. I think they're pretty similar.Moss, Wayne, and S. Smith are ranked pretty high for guys whose best football is behind them. They all have more short term upside than Holmes, but he has a lot more longevity potential. I'm not feeling the Steve Smith love. He's a slightly better version of Santana Moss. Talented, but chronically disappointing for one reason or another. I don't think he belongs a tier ahead of Boldin and Chad. They're all capable of producing WR1 numbers when healthy, but they're all on the backslopes of their careers.Pretty brutal downgrade for Eddie Royal. He had a pathetic year. No doubt about that, but I'm still a believer in his ability. I think he can be a Holmes/Coles/SMoss type. I would rank him at least 20 spots higher than WR53.

I have Eddie Royal on my roster, and I wanted to deal him before the season. No such luck. Right now I couldn't get a gatorade flavor to be named later for him. He's an albatross.I don't think Austin and Holmes are similar at all. Austin is the best after-the-catch receiver in the NFL right now and has potential to be a double-digit TD scorer for the next 6-7 seasons. Only Andre Johnson scored more points once Austin hit the starting lineup. He's a monster.Re: Moss, Wayne & S. Smith: You like roster building and playing for the future. I like winning now with a balanced nucleus. Steve Smith is still one of the most dominant receivers in the league, and he's a lot better than Santana Moss. The disappointment isn't "one reason or another." The only times he's not producing monster numbers is when he has one of the absolute worst QBs in the league throwing to him (Weinke for 3 games in '06, Testaverde, Carr & undrafted rookie Moore for 13 games in '07, and the shell of Jake Delhomme for most of '09). I'd much rather have his monster upside than Boldin or Ocho, so we're just into personal preference there.

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There's some merit to that strategy. Difference makers can single-handedly elevate your team when they have a monster game. No doubt someone like R. Moss is much more likely to have that big 150 yard 3 TD game than Holmes. Ranking aging superstars vs. young stars is difficult. A reliable long term WR2 like Holmes is appealing for stability's sake, but a reliable short term WR1 like Moss is appealing for upside's sake. Which side you favor depends largely on individual preference. I tend to like a young team.

I'm not sure Smith is any more talented than Chad or Boldin. He only has two seasons of 1200+ receiving yards and two seasons of 8+ TDs. Boldin has three seasons of 1200+ yards and three seasons of 8+ TDs. Chad has five seasons of 1200+ yards and five seasons of 8+ TDs. Those are arbitrary cutoffs, but the general point is that the numbers don't support the idea that Steve Smith can be expected to outscore these guys in a given season. He had one MONSTER year in 2005 when he went off for 1500 yards and 12 TDs. Othwerwise he's been a good, but not great producer.

I think part of the reason why Steve Smith's reputation always sees him rated above where his production would dictate is because of his playing style. He's a flashy player. Explosive. Fast. Strong. When he makes a big play, it's usually highlight reel stuff. On the flipside, Ocho is from the school of Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne, and Isaac Bruce. His greatness is subtle. To a lesser extent, the same is true of Boldin. He doesn't have that jaw-dropping big play ability.

There's a difference between freaky good and sneaky good. Adrian Peterson is freaky good. Frank Gore is sneaky good. Steve Smith is freaky good. Chad Ochocinco is sneaky good. They're all Pro Bowl caliber players. They just achieve their results in different ways that leave a different impression on fans. Steve Smith tends to leave a big impression, but I don't think he's a better receiver than Ocho. I actually think Chad is better. The numbers suggest as much (although Chad has had a better QB most of the time).

Edited by EBF

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There's some merit to that strategy. Difference makers can single-handedly elevate your team when they have a monster game. No doubt someone like R. Moss is much more likely to have that big 150 yard 3 TD game than Holmes. Ranking aging superstars vs. young stars is difficult. A reliable long term WR2 like Holmes is appealing for stability's sake, but a reliable short term WR1 like Moss is appealing for upside's sake. Which side you favor depends largely on individual preference. I tend to like a young team.I'm not sure Smith is any more talented than Chad or Boldin. He only has two seasons of 1200+ receiving yards and two seasons of 8+ TDs. Boldin has three seasons of 1200+ yards and three seasons of 8+ TDs. Chad has five seasons of 1200+ yards and five seasons of 8+ TDs. Those are arbitrary cutoffs, but the general point is that the numbers don't support the idea that Steve Smith can be expected to outscore these guys in a given season. He had one MONSTER year in 2005 when he went off for 1500 yards and 12 TDs. Othwerwise he's been a good, but not great producer.I think part of the reason why Steve Smith's reputation always sees him rated above where his production would dictate is because of his playing style. He's a flashy player. Explosive. Fast. Strong. When he makes a big play, it's usually highlight reel stuff. On the flipside, Ocho is from the school of Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne, and Isaac Bruce. His greatness is subtle. To a lesser extent, the same is true of Boldin. He doesn't have that jaw-dropping big play ability. There's a difference between freaky good and sneaky good. Adrian Peterson is freaky good. Frank Gore is sneaky good. Steve Smith is freaky good. Chad Ochocinco is sneaky good. They're all Pro Bowl caliber players. They just achieve their results in different ways that leave a different impression on fans. Steve Smith tends to leave a big impression, but I don't think he's a better receiver than Ocho. I actually think Chad is better. The numbers suggest as much (although Chad has had a better QB most of the time).

:tinfoilhat: Personally, I have a hard time distinguishing between Steve Smith and Ocho in terms of dynasty fantasy value. I like them both. I think EBF's sneaky great and freaky great distinction is a valid one in general. I guess one thing I wonder about with players like these two is their relative age, how different players are likely to age, and their contract/team status. I know both are not young and I think Ocho is lik 31 or 32 but I don't really know their ages. I also wonder does a big, strong WR like Ocho age better or worse than a smaller, quick WR like Smith? I don't know. All things being equal I like the consistency of Ocho who has had over a thousand yards every year except his first year and last year when he got hurt.

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There's a difference between freaky good and sneaky good. Adrian Peterson is freaky good. Frank Gore is sneaky good. Steve Smith is freaky good. Chad Ochocinco is sneaky good. They're all Pro Bowl caliber players. They just achieve their results in different ways that leave a different impression on fans. Steve Smith tends to leave a big impression, but I don't think he's a better receiver than Ocho. I actually think Chad is better. The numbers suggest as much (although Chad has had a better QB most of the time).

In a beyond (or behind) the ranking sorta way I see, and like, what you getting at with "freaky vs. sneaky" good.

So if freaky good leaves a stronger impression on fans (and all of us fantasy football players are fans), all things being equal I would think the freaky good player that is projected similarly to a sneaky good player would have more dynasty value on my roster for that impression would likely increase his trade value.

At the same time, I may try to acquire a sneaky good player for I may be able to get a better deal for him.

Edited by Avery

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Great Update F&L. Always look forward to your rankings.My only question is why do you have Santonio Holmes ranked so low? (at least low in my opinion)I mean I realize we are splitting hairs with some of these rankings, but I'd rather have Holmes than at least 4-5 guys ranked ahead of him at this point. Steelers are passing a ton lately and Holmes is a good young playmaker with a good young QB, and while Hines keeps playing at a high level, his day is coming. I think Holmes stacks up well against the majority of your tier 3 guys. Just suprised to see him a whole tier below guys he is out producing. Granted the TDs are down this year, but I could easily see Holmes scoring 10-12 TDs in 2010 along with being top 10 in yardage. Thoughts...

I guess I'd have to know who you think should be below him.I don't think he's a double-digit TD guy, so we don't see eye-to-eye there.
I think Holmes is neck and neck with every player from 12-17Steve Smith (EBF already touched on the similar thoughts I have in regards to Smith)Sidney Rice (talent wise I see this, but production wise I would question it....see harvin...)Greg Jennings (I see him as the same player Holmes is. Probably wouldn't strait up deal Holmes for Jennings and I don't see Jennings a Tier above him)Percy Harvin ( again Harvin does have more upside, but how is he a double digit TD threat? ... of course the return TDs help, but can't be counted on. He has to be like option 4 in the redzone right now...)Michael Crabtree (really just a personal preferance at this time, I could see Crabtree being the better pro. Right now he just isn't though)To touch on Vikes again, Once Brett Favre does retire, I don't see them as a team with two WRs in the Top 20 to go along with a top 5 RB. Edited by Max Power

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I'm not sure Smith is any more talented than Chad or Boldin.

I agree completely here, especially with Boldin. He was #1 (PPG) last year. He was top 10 this year, other than weeks 6-10 when he played with his ankle sprain. He's 2 years younger than Smith. And, probably the biggest point, it doesn't matter who he has at QB. He still produces.In addition, it isn't like Smith's QB picture has gotten any better. Edited by BuckeyeArt

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My pretty short quick list of most electric ever.....not necessarily in orderBarry SandersGale SayersBo JacksonChris JohnsonDeSean JacksonEric Metcalf

No Steve Slaton or Terrelle Pryor?

I'm not sure Smith is any more talented than Chad or Boldin. He only has two seasons of 1200+ receiving yards and two seasons of 8+ TDs. Boldin has three seasons of 1200+ yards and three seasons of 8+ TDs. Chad has five seasons of 1200+ yards and five seasons of 8+ TDs. Those are arbitrary cutoffs, but the general point is that the numbers don't support the idea that Steve Smith can be expected to outscore these guys in a given season. He had one MONSTER year in 2005 when he went off for 1500 yards and 12 TDs. Othwerwise he's been a good, but not great producer.

Steve Smith averaged 100 yards per game in 2005, his monster year. From 2006-2008, if you throw out the games where Carolina started Weinke, Carr, or Testaverde, Smiff averaged... 100 yards a game. Smiff has been producing at exactly the same rate for the past 4 years, he's just had Chris Weinke and David Carr throwing him the ball.

I agree completely here, especially with Boldin. He was #1 (PPG) last year.

Anquan Boldin averaged 7.4/86.5/.9, which prorates to 118/1384/14Smith averaged 5.6/101.5/.4, which pro-rates to 90/1624/7Factor in the fact that Boldin was playing with Warner while Smiff was playing with Delhomme and I think Smiff's season was more impressive last year. Throw in Boldin's injury history and the fact that he's not long for Arizona and I'd prefer Smiff to Boldin by a comfortable margin.

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I don't think Austin and Holmes are similar at all. Austin is the best after-the-catch receiver in the NFL right now and has potential to be a double-digit TD scorer for the next 6-7 seasons. Only Andre Johnson scored more points once Austin hit the starting lineup. He's a monster.

I totally agree that Austin is a great talent, and as a Dallas locale guy, I cna say I stashed him in many a league 2 years ago for just this season. So I'm a huge backer of his.

BUT

Brandon Marshall is the best after the catch receiver in the NFL. Then Miles Austin, and probably DeSean Jackson, and after that I can't think of anybody in a tier by them. But Brandon Marshall, imo, is definitively the best. He's fast, he can juke you and make you miss, he can run you over, and he can drag you 5 yards to the first down after a poorly blocked screen...at which point you fall off his leg and he takes it to the house.

I'm not saying it is a gigantic difference...it isn't. But Marshall's the best.

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Brandon Marshall is the best after the catch receiver in the NFL... But Brandon Marshall, imo, is definitively the best.

There is just no way this is possible with an 11.1 yards/catch.

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My pretty short quick list of most electric ever.....not necessarily in orderBarry SandersGale SayersBo JacksonChris JohnsonDeSean JacksonEric Metcalf

No Steve Slaton or Terrelle Pryor?
:towelwave:

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My pretty short quick list of most electric ever.....not necessarily in orderBarry SandersGale SayersBo JacksonChris JohnsonDeSean JacksonEric Metcalf

No Steve Slaton or Terrelle Pryor?
:lmao:
:lmao: :lmao: The snacks must have slowed him down.

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I don't think Austin and Holmes are similar at all. Austin is the best after-the-catch receiver in the NFL right now and has potential to be a double-digit TD scorer for the next 6-7 seasons. Only Andre Johnson scored more points once Austin hit the starting lineup. He's a monster.

I totally agree that Austin is a great talent, and as a Dallas locale guy, I cna say I stashed him in many a league 2 years ago for just this season. So I'm a huge backer of his.

BUT

Brandon Marshall is the best after the catch receiver in the NFL. Then Miles Austin, and probably DeSean Jackson, and after that I can't think of anybody in a tier by them. But Brandon Marshall, imo, is definitively the best. He's fast, he can juke you and make you miss, he can run you over, and he can drag you 5 yards to the first down after a poorly blocked screen...at which point you fall off his leg and he takes it to the house.

I'm not saying it is a gigantic difference...it isn't. But Marshall's the best.

Boldin when healthy is better after the catch.

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My pretty short quick list of most electric ever.....not necessarily in orderBarry SandersGale SayersBo JacksonChris JohnsonDeSean JacksonEric Metcalf

No Steve Slaton or Terrelle Pryor?
Please don't attempt to disparage my posts with silliness. My list stands on its own, so stick to what was written. Whenever you start to believe that you can project better than I, then step up to any number of challenges that are available to you to show.......Or pretty much stick to what you are good at, crunching numbers of what already has transpired to come to your conclusions....let the forecasters, evaluators, and historical analyzers stick to what we do best..... :excited:

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Brandon Marshall is the best after the catch receiver in the NFL... But Brandon Marshall, imo, is definitively the best.

There is just no way this is possible with an 11.1 yards/catch.
Half the routes McFail makes him run are less than five yards. You can't just look at YPC for this. You have to actually watch games. I totally agree that Marshall is the best WR after the catch at this time.

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WR19 does seem a bit low for Holmes considering how high Miles Austin is ranked. I think they're pretty similar.

Moss, Wayne, and S. Smith are ranked pretty high for guys whose best football is behind them. They all have more short term upside than Holmes, but he has a lot more longevity potential.

I'm not feeling the Steve Smith love. He's a slightly better version of Santana Moss. Talented, but chronically disappointing for one reason or another. I don't think he belongs a tier ahead of Boldin and Chad. They're all capable of producing WR1 numbers when healthy, but they're all on the backslopes of their careers.

Pretty brutal downgrade for Eddie Royal. He had a pathetic year. No doubt about that, but I'm still a believer in his ability. I think he can be a Holmes/Coles/SMoss type. I would rank him at least 20 spots higher than WR53.

I have Eddie Royal on my roster, and I wanted to deal him before the season. No such luck. Right now I couldn't get a gatorade flavor to be named later for him. He's an albatross.

I don't think Austin and Holmes are similar at all. Austin is the best after-the-catch receiver in the NFL right now and has potential to be a double-digit TD scorer for the next 6-7 seasons. Only Andre Johnson scored more points once Austin hit the starting lineup. He's a monster.

Re: Moss, Wayne & S. Smith: You like roster building and playing for the future. I like winning now with a balanced nucleus. Steve Smith is still one of the most dominant receivers in the league, and he's a lot better than Santana Moss. The disappointment isn't "one reason or another." The only times he's not producing monster numbers is when he has one of the absolute worst QBs in the league throwing to him (Weinke for 3 games in '06, Testaverde, Carr & undrafted rookie Moore for 13 games in '07, and the shell of Jake Delhomme for most of '09). I'd much rather have his monster upside than Boldin or Ocho, so we're just into personal preference there.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that Brandon Marshall is "gone" if the Broncos are offered a first- and third-round pick for him this offseason.

Schefter adds that "It's possible, even likely" that Marshall has played his last down in a Denver uniform. Marshall is headed for restricted free agency in the offseason, but will still be in search of a big-time contract extension no matter whose roster he's on. With the unrestricted free agent market slated to be poorer than ever, however, the trade market could blow up. Marshall, 25, is definitely going to draw interest.

I wonder what kind of impact Marshall's departure (if it happens) from Denver would have on Eddie Royal's dynasty value?? I would think it would receive quite a "bump".

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My pretty short quick list of most electric ever.....not necessarily in orderBarry SandersGale SayersBo JacksonChris JohnsonDeSean JacksonEric Metcalf

No Steve Slaton or Terrelle Pryor?
Please don't attempt to disparage my posts with silliness. My list stands on its own, so stick to what was written. Whenever you start to believe that you can project better than I, then step up to any number of challenges that are available to you to show.......Or pretty much stick to what you are good at, crunching numbers of what already has transpired to come to your conclusions....let the forecasters, evaluators, and historical analyzers stick to what we do best..... :hifive:
While I won't comment on SSOG's ability to scout (since he himself has admitted several times its not his best strength or something he has any real desire to do), I will go ahead and suggest that it is a bit silly to include yourself in any list of successful "forecasters, evaluators, and historical analyzers." Your track record on this very board over the last few years is poor, to say the least. That doesn't mean you haven't gotten some right, but rather that your misses have been so bad and you have been so vocal that it makes you look very foolish. You may be a legend in your own mind, but after having several very outrageous and bold predictions (which you were very preachy about and argued about at some length, mind you), and then having those predictions more than blow up in your face and make you look ridiculous, I'm not sure anyone would consider you among the more reliable talent evaluators. If we are talking talent evaluators on this board, give me EBF and his sound analysis that generally doesn't involve outrageous statements and predictions simply to draw attention to himself every time.Anyway, I am pretty certain that SSOG's comment was simply a light hearted jab at 2 of your more outrageous and ridiculous statements that appear to be obvious and colossal misfires. There's no need to get upset and attempt to turn it into anything close to personal. If you were less overbearing, outlandish, and generally loud mouthed about most of your predictions, you wouldn't be so open to (and possibly deserving of?) such light hearted jabs.

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What are the thoughts out there regarding future prospects for Josh Morgan?

Is his lack of elite speed the main issue here and can he compensate with his other strengths?

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I think Greg Jennings is getting dangerously close to being undervalued.

Some key stats to remember about Jennings:

4th in PPG in 2007

6th in PPG in 2008

Two things coincided this year to drop Jennings' numbers. The Packer offensive line was atrocious throughout the first half of the year. Jennings also had a inordinate number of near misses on Touchdown plays. There are four that I can think of right now that could have very easily gone for TDs. Td's can be fluky, and Jennings had a bit of bad luck in that regard this year.

Since the Packer line has solidified over the last 6 weeks, Jennings is 5th in the league in receiving yards.

I think going into next season Jennings is a fantastic buy low if you can get him for a WR2 price. Aaron Rodgers has continued to improve his game throughout the season. He's everything you want your WR to have in a QB. The emergence of Jermicheal Finley is going to help Jennings as well. Defenses will absolutely be sending more coverage his way in 2010 relieving Jennings of some of those double teams.

I fully expect Jennings to get back to a solid WR1 next year and post something around 1200/9.

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While I won't comment on SSOG's ability to scout (since he himself has admitted several times its not his best strength or something he has any real desire to do), I will go ahead and suggest that it is a bit silly to include yourself in any list of successful "forecasters, evaluators, and historical analyzers." Your track record on this very board over the last few years is poor, to say the least. That doesn't mean you haven't gotten some right, but rather that your misses have been so bad and you have been so vocal that it makes you look very foolish. You may be a legend in your own mind, but after having several very outrageous and bold predictions (which you were very preachy about and argued about at some length, mind you), and then having those predictions more than blow up in your face and make you look ridiculous, I'm not sure anyone would consider you among the more reliable talent evaluators. If we are talking talent evaluators on this board, give me EBF and his sound analysis that generally doesn't involve outrageous statements and predictions simply to draw attention to himself every time.Anyway, I am pretty certain that SSOG's comment was simply a light hearted jab at 2 of your more outrageous and ridiculous statements that appear to be obvious and colossal misfires. There's no need to get upset and attempt to turn it into anything close to personal. If you were less overbearing, outlandish, and generally loud mouthed about most of your predictions, you wouldn't be so open to (and possibly deserving of?) such light hearted jabs.

:ninja:

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Brandon Marshall is the best after the catch receiver in the NFL... But Brandon Marshall, imo, is definitively the best.

There is just no way this is possible with an 11.1 yards/catch.
Half the routes McFail makes him run are less than five yards. You can't just look at YPC for this. You have to actually watch games. I totally agree that Marshall is the best WR after the catch at this time.
:rolleyes:

This season Marshall averages 5.0 yards after the catch, which ranks 28th in the league. Here is the list of guys with better average YAC:

1 Hakeem Nicks	9.22 Sam Aiken	8.23 Santana Moss	7.34 Miles Austin	7.25 Greg Jennings	7.16 Patrick Crayton	6.67 Devin Thomas	6.58 Santonio Holmes	6.48 DeSean Jackson	6.48 Earl Bennett	6.48 James Jones	6.412 Julian Edelman	6.313 Pierre Garcon	6.214 Percy Harvin	615 Wes Welker	5.915 Devery Henderson	5.917 Legedu Naanee	5.817 Brian Hartline	5.819 Jerricho Cotchery	5.720 Andre Johnson	5.620 Roy E. Williams	5.622 Donald Driver	5.523 Calvin Johnson	5.424 Marques Colston	5.325 Malcolm Kelly	5.225 Donnie Avery	5.227 Jason Avant	5.1

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Brandon Marshall is the best after the catch receiver in the NFL... But Brandon Marshall, imo, is definitively the best.

There is just no way this is possible with an 11.1 yards/catch.
Half the routes McFail makes him run are less than five yards. You can't just look at YPC for this. You have to actually watch games. I totally agree that Marshall is the best WR after the catch at this time.
:rolleyes:

This season Marshall averages 5.0 yards after the catch, which ranks 28th in the league. Here is the list of guys with better average YAC:

1 Hakeem Nicks	9.22 Sam Aiken	8.23 Santana Moss	7.34 Miles Austin	7.25 Greg Jennings	7.16 Patrick Crayton	6.67 Devin Thomas	6.58 Santonio Holmes	6.48 DeSean Jackson	6.48 Earl Bennett	6.48 James Jones	6.412 Julian Edelman	6.313 Pierre Garcon	6.214 Percy Harvin	615 Wes Welker	5.915 Devery Henderson	5.917 Legedu Naanee	5.817 Brian Hartline	5.819 Jerricho Cotchery	5.720 Andre Johnson	5.620 Roy E. Williams	5.622 Donald Driver	5.523 Calvin Johnson	5.424 Marques Colston	5.325 Malcolm Kelly	5.225 Donnie Avery	5.227 Jason Avant	5.1
Looks like YAC doesn't really tell you a whole lot, that list is filled with great WR's, and not so great ones. I think a WR's ability to create after catching a ball needs to be eyeballed and not a statistic.

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Brandon Marshall is the best after the catch receiver in the NFL... But Brandon Marshall, imo, is definitively the best.

There is just no way this is possible with an 11.1 yards/catch.
Half the routes McFail makes him run are less than five yards. You can't just look at YPC for this. You have to actually watch games. I totally agree that Marshall is the best WR after the catch at this time.
:rolleyes:

This season Marshall averages 5.0 yards after the catch, which ranks 28th in the league. Here is the list of guys with better average YAC:

1 Hakeem Nicks	9.22 Sam Aiken	8.23 Santana Moss	7.34 Miles Austin	7.25 Greg Jennings	7.16 Patrick Crayton	6.67 Devin Thomas	6.58 Santonio Holmes	6.48 DeSean Jackson	6.48 Earl Bennett	6.48 James Jones	6.412 Julian Edelman	6.313 Pierre Garcon	6.214 Percy Harvin	615 Wes Welker	5.915 Devery Henderson	5.917 Legedu Naanee	5.817 Brian Hartline	5.819 Jerricho Cotchery	5.720 Andre Johnson	5.620 Roy E. Williams	5.622 Donald Driver	5.523 Calvin Johnson	5.424 Marques Colston	5.325 Malcolm Kelly	5.225 Donnie Avery	5.227 Jason Avant	5.1
Looks like YAC doesn't really tell you a whole lot, that list is filled with great WR's, and not so great ones. I think a WR's ability to create after catching a ball needs to be eyeballed and not a statistic.
Regardless, there are two claims quoted above that Marshall is the best after the catch, and IMO this pretty clearly shows that not to be the case. Yes, he is actually better than some of the guys above him on the list, but not all 27 of them.

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My pretty short quick list of most electric ever.....not necessarily in orderBarry SandersGale SayersBo JacksonChris JohnsonDeSean JacksonEric Metcalf

No Steve Slaton or Terrelle Pryor?
Please don't attempt to disparage my posts with silliness. My list stands on its own, so stick to what was written. Whenever you start to believe that you can project better than I, then step up to any number of challenges that are available to you to show.......Or pretty much stick to what you are good at, crunching numbers of what already has transpired to come to your conclusions....let the forecasters, evaluators, and historical analyzers stick to what we do best..... :rolleyes:
I was mostly just saying it's a bit silly to compile a list of "the most ___________ players ever" where 33% of the list are guys in their second season. Odds are any list with that kind of composition is wrong based solely on principle. Desean Jackson is one of the two most electric players in the league today, but is he really more electric than Deion Sanders? Than Dante Hall was? Than Devin Hester was when he was a full-time returner? More electric than Randy Moss? More electric than Terrell Owens in his prime? More electric than Michael Vick or Randall Cunningham? Than Jim Brown? Mercury Morris? Than Clinton Portis was as a sophomore? Than Napolean Kaufman? Than Bambi? More electric than Rick Upchurch? Than White Shoes? Than ALL of those guys? Or is it possible that this is just a giant glaring example of the recency bias in action?

I think Greg Jennings is getting dangerously close to being undervalued. Some key stats to remember about Jennings:4th in PPG in 20076th in PPG in 2008Two things coincided this year to drop Jennings' numbers. The Packer offensive line was atrocious throughout the first half of the year. Jennings also had a inordinate number of near misses on Touchdown plays. There are four that I can think of right now that could have very easily gone for TDs. Td's can be fluky, and Jennings had a bit of bad luck in that regard this year. Since the Packer line has solidified over the last 6 weeks, Jennings is 5th in the league in receiving yards. I think going into next season Jennings is a fantastic buy low if you can get him for a WR2 price. Aaron Rodgers has continued to improve his game throughout the season. He's everything you want your WR to have in a QB. The emergence of Jermicheal Finley is going to help Jennings as well. Defenses will absolutely be sending more coverage his way in 2010 relieving Jennings of some of those double teams. I fully expect Jennings to get back to a solid WR1 next year and post something around 1200/9.

I've been notoriously cool on Jennings for a while. I just don't think he's quite as talented as the guys ahead of him.A couple of questions for you. Of the 13 guys ahead of Jennings, who would you take Jennings over? Of those guys, how many do you think Jennings is more talented than, and how many would you prefer Jennings based on age or situation instead of talent?

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