Dynasty Rankings (6 Viewers)

GreatLakesMike · Jan 4, 2010

lyon812 said:
Harrison--value undetermined. He could potentially leave as a free agent, but there aren't many openings out there. If he stays in Cleveland, he'll have shown he deserves the job, but was in Mangini's doghouse as recently as a month ago for what seemed spurious reasons (to fans of Harrison). Plus, it's hard to put a finger on his productivity the last few weeks because Cleveland has no passing offense and didn't even try to pass the ball. Essentially they just gave it to Harrison and said, "ok, let's try to win." And, well, they did. So high yardage, but two weeks of 3.8ypc..which isn't special in a vacuum. I think he can be a full-time starter and has dynamic running skills, but you just can't anticipate him running the ball 30+ times every week in 2010. Personally, I'd say if someone makes you a great offer while his value is semi-high, then take it.

Do you have any links to back this up? There have been rumors of many Browns player being in Mangini's doghouse, but more often than not, the truth of the matter is that these players were not doing what was needed to get on the field. Mangini is not the first coach or OC to keep Harrison on the bench. Harrison is a very talented runner, but he's had fumbling issues, pass protection issues, and he's simply had a few brain farts during his stay in Cleveland. Hopefully, Harrison has solved these issues and can become the lead back in Cleveland.

Fear & Loathing · Jan 4, 2010

GreatLakesMike said:
lyon812 said:

Harrison--value undetermined. He could potentially leave as a free agent, but there aren't many openings out there. If he stays in Cleveland, he'll have shown he deserves the job, but was in Mangini's doghouse as recently as a month ago for what seemed spurious reasons (to fans of Harrison). Plus, it's hard to put a finger on his productivity the last few weeks because Cleveland has no passing offense and didn't even try to pass the ball. Essentially they just gave it to Harrison and said, "ok, let's try to win." And, well, they did. So high yardage, but two weeks of 3.8ypc..which isn't special in a vacuum. I think he can be a full-time starter and has dynamic running skills, but you just can't anticipate him running the ball 30+ times every week in 2010. Personally, I'd say if someone makes you a great offer while his value is semi-high, then take it.

Click to expand...

Do you have any links to back this up? There have been rumors of many Browns player being in Mangini's doghouse, but more often than not, the truth of the matter is that these players were not doing what was needed to get on the field. Mangini is not the first coach or OC to keep Harrison on the bench. Harrison is a very talented runner, but he's had fumbling issues, pass protection issues, and he's simply had a few brain farts during his stay in Cleveland. Hopefully, Harrison has solved these issues and can become the lead back in Cleveland.

I don't have a link handy, but I would assume he's talking about when Chris Jennings leapfrogged him on the depth chart.

ty247 · Jan 4, 2010

GreatLakesMike said:
lyon812 said:

Harrison--value undetermined. He could potentially leave as a free agent, but there aren't many openings out there. If he stays in Cleveland, he'll have shown he deserves the job, but was in Mangini's doghouse as recently as a month ago for what seemed spurious reasons (to fans of Harrison). Plus, it's hard to put a finger on his productivity the last few weeks because Cleveland has no passing offense and didn't even try to pass the ball. Essentially they just gave it to Harrison and said, "ok, let's try to win." And, well, they did. So high yardage, but two weeks of 3.8ypc..which isn't special in a vacuum. I think he can be a full-time starter and has dynamic running skills, but you just can't anticipate him running the ball 30+ times every week in 2010. Personally, I'd say if someone makes you a great offer while his value is semi-high, then take it.

Click to expand...

Do you have any links to back this up? There have been rumors of many Browns player being in Mangini's doghouse, but more often than not, the truth of the matter is that these players were not doing what was needed to get on the field. Mangini is not the first coach or OC to keep Harrison on the bench. Harrison is a very talented runner, but he's had fumbling issues, pass protection issues, and he's simply had a few brain farts during his stay in Cleveland. Hopefully, Harrison has solved these issues and can become the lead back in Cleveland.

Harrison's issue getting on the field has never been with his running/receiving skills.It has always been his inability to pick up the blitz and his inability to block.

I think his getting on the field was just a product of Mangini riding the hot hand.. and Harrison happened to light it up.

n20 · Jan 4, 2010

Fear & Loathing said:
gheemony said:

Will probably sit down to do my dynasty rankings in a few weeks. One of the top questions will be:Jamal Charles: Is he Steve Slaton or Chris Johnson? I thought he was too small coming into this season, but he's opened my eyes and I need to reevaluate.

Click to expand...

Much, much closer to Johnson. I tweeted earlier tonight that Charles had moved into my No. 5 spot at running back behind only Johnson, Peterson, Jones-Drew and Rice.

F&L, I can't wait to see the updated RB Rankings. Has Charles really leapfrogged SJax? What about Moreno in comparison to both? Love your list and I can't wait to see your reasoning! Thanks again.

GreatLakesMike · Jan 4, 2010

Fear & Loathing said:
GreatLakesMike said:

lyon812 said:

Harrison--value undetermined. He could potentially leave as a free agent, but there aren't many openings out there. If he stays in Cleveland, he'll have shown he deserves the job, but was in Mangini's doghouse as recently as a month ago for what seemed spurious reasons (to fans of Harrison). Plus, it's hard to put a finger on his productivity the last few weeks because Cleveland has no passing offense and didn't even try to pass the ball. Essentially they just gave it to Harrison and said, "ok, let's try to win." And, well, they did. So high yardage, but two weeks of 3.8ypc..which isn't special in a vacuum. I think he can be a full-time starter and has dynamic running skills, but you just can't anticipate him running the ball 30+ times every week in 2010. Personally, I'd say if someone makes you a great offer while his value is semi-high, then take it.

Click to expand...

Do you have any links to back this up? There have been rumors of many Browns player being in Mangini's doghouse, but more often than not, the truth of the matter is that these players were not doing what was needed to get on the field. Mangini is not the first coach or OC to keep Harrison on the bench. Harrison is a very talented runner, but he's had fumbling issues, pass protection issues, and he's simply had a few brain farts during his stay in Cleveland. Hopefully, Harrison has solved these issues and can become the lead back in Cleveland.

Click to expand...

I don't have a link handy, but I would assume he's talking about when Chris Jennings leapfrogged him on the depth chart.

Harrison was injured during the preseason, so Davis and Jennings started the season #1/2.

EBF · Jan 4, 2010

kremenull said:
EBF said:

I think Charles is far too speculative to warrant a top 10 pick. He has the potential to eventually justify that kind of ranking, but most of his production has come in the last four games. That's not a big enough sample size to draw strong enough conclusions to rank him as one of the best players in all of FF. I've seen a lot of guys fluke their way to a good stretch run. Ron Dayne, Ladell Betts, Lee Suggs, and William Green come to mind. Charles is much more impressive than these guys, but the broader point is that it's entirely possible for someone to play way over his head for a period of several games. I would like to see Charles perform well over a bigger sample size before I conclude that he's a superstar.Most of his big games have come against crappy teams and his workload over the past few weeks is probably not sustainable over a 16 game season (he has 94 carries over the last four games, which prorates to 376 carries over a full season). My attitude towards him is the same as my attitude towards Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton last season: I'm impressed by the early results, but I need to see more. There's little upside and tons of downside to ranking him as a top 10 player right now.

Click to expand...

No disrespect my man EBF, and I'm sure you are a consistent player with this mindset. But alternatively, this is also the type of thinking that could be the reason for a 3rd or 4th place finish as opposed to having a championship banner flying. Sometimes, when talent is obviously present and producing like this, you have to seize the moment (and player) instead of waiting around for more "sample size", as I hear so many guys speaking of. I certainly learned my lesson from not pursuing Chris Johnson in the beginning, even after him putting up huge numbers on a "small sample size", I still wasn't truly sold. Is Charles as good as Chris Johnson? Maybe, maybe not. Can he be as productive as Ray Rice? Certainly. Or even Chris Johnson?????

The time to get guys like Charles, CJ, Mendenhall, and Rice is BEFORE they show anything on the field. At one point all of them were 4th-7th round type picks in 12 team startup dynasty drafts. That's when you should have grabbed them if you liked them, not after they had already popped. The buy low moment already came and went for Jamaal Charles. Now his price tag is sky high. You will have to pick him in the top 10-25, which means there's almost zero upside and tons of downside. The margin for error is razor thin. If he succeeds, his trade value will only rise slightly. If he busts, his trade value will drop considerably. The top of the draft is not the place to get fancy. When you use a top 10 pick on someone, you have to KNOW that he's going to be a rock in your lineup barring injury. Chris Johnson turned out to be a great pick in the top 10 this year. Even so, he's gone from being the 6-12th ranked player to being the 1st-3rd ranked player. Not exactly a huge leap. Meanwhile other speculative top 10 picks like Matt Forte and Steve Slaton have completely fallen off a cliff. The problem with using a top 10 pick on Charles is that you are buying him at his upside without factoring in the downside. Unless you're 100% convinced that he's a long term star, I don't think you can consider taking him in the top 10. I know I won't.

munchkin · Jan 4, 2010

I will be the first to admit that I don't spend a whole lot of time watching College ball and evaluating players as they make their way into the NFL. I don't have the time or the resources. I, probably like many others, rely on threads like this to gain insight/knowledge to make as informed a decision as possible to shape/reshape my team. I think that roster size has a lot to do with making a genius out of many FF team managers. I play in a ten team 19 player limit league and have done well in holding on to players like MJD and Ray Rice while missing out in cutting Sidney Rice (largely because I drafted Harvin) after holding him for 2+ years.

This is a non-IDP league so you don't need as many roster spots as you would if you played the defensive positions but with playing (1,2,2,1,1,1) 8 spots and allowing for backups to cover bye weeks it is hard to hold on to many of the players you covet.

My intention isn't for this to be a woah is me post. I am just trying to point out that we win some and lose some in our evaluation of players based on our processing of information. It can also be easier to strike gold with a larger roster or the right waiver wire position in a smaller league (like mine).

I have done pretty well over the last 5 years picking the brains of others and playing the odds with two championships and other $$ finishes.

I will continue to come back here to win some and lose some; cuttong Rice is going to eat at me for a while though :thumbup:

thriftyrocker · Jan 4, 2010

bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
easy on the Jacoby Jones love, the dude is talented but when Owen Daniels comes back, IMO the best Jacoby can do is #3 in target in that O.

I would still give you 10 Laurent Robinson's for one Jacoby Jones. I think Laurent is a legit NFL player but his upside is right around Jerricho Cotchery. Decent speed, decent hands, decent height, great nothing. He will never be an 8+ TD player. He will never approach 90+ receptions. If you have ever tried to sell Cotchery, he has little value on his own.Jacoby Jones had 7 TDs this year. If his role increases again - and there is a lot of room for it to increase regardless of the TE - he'll win you a lot more games than Laurent. Even if his Meachemsian TD rate drops a little, he'll still help more than Laurent.I see the same discrepancy between Nelson and James Jones. It's fun to guess which one has the inside track to Driver's spot. But regardless of who sticks in GB, I think James Jones has more upside due to his strength. Neither has blazing speed. Both are quick enough to get open. Nelson is taller. I like James Jones' talent better for catches in traffic and YAC, and that's who I try to own.

Fear & Loathing · Jan 4, 2010

GreatLakesMike said:
Fear & Loathing said:

GreatLakesMike said:

lyon812 said:

Harrison--value undetermined. He could potentially leave as a free agent, but there aren't many openings out there. If he stays in Cleveland, he'll have shown he deserves the job, but was in Mangini's doghouse as recently as a month ago for what seemed spurious reasons (to fans of Harrison). Plus, it's hard to put a finger on his productivity the last few weeks because Cleveland has no passing offense and didn't even try to pass the ball. Essentially they just gave it to Harrison and said, "ok, let's try to win." And, well, they did. So high yardage, but two weeks of 3.8ypc..which isn't special in a vacuum. I think he can be a full-time starter and has dynamic running skills, but you just can't anticipate him running the ball 30+ times every week in 2010. Personally, I'd say if someone makes you a great offer while his value is semi-high, then take it.

Click to expand...

Do you have any links to back this up? There have been rumors of many Browns player being in Mangini's doghouse, but more often than not, the truth of the matter is that these players were not doing what was needed to get on the field. Mangini is not the first coach or OC to keep Harrison on the bench. Harrison is a very talented runner, but he's had fumbling issues, pass protection issues, and he's simply had a few brain farts during his stay in Cleveland. Hopefully, Harrison has solved these issues and can become the lead back in Cleveland.

Click to expand...

I don't have a link handy, but I would assume he's talking about when Chris Jennings leapfrogged him on the depth chart.

Click to expand...

Harrison was injured during the preseason, so Davis and Jennings started the season #1/2.

He was also passed by Jennings at midseason, and it was believed that Harrison was squarely in Mangini's doghouse.

Rodeojones · Jan 4, 2010

EBF said:
kremenull said:

EBF said:

I think Charles is far too speculative to warrant a top 10 pick. He has the potential to eventually justify that kind of ranking, but most of his production has come in the last four games. That's not a big enough sample size to draw strong enough conclusions to rank him as one of the best players in all of FF. I've seen a lot of guys fluke their way to a good stretch run. Ron Dayne, Ladell Betts, Lee Suggs, and William Green come to mind. Charles is much more impressive than these guys, but the broader point is that it's entirely possible for someone to play way over his head for a period of several games. I would like to see Charles perform well over a bigger sample size before I conclude that he's a superstar.Most of his big games have come against crappy teams and his workload over the past few weeks is probably not sustainable over a 16 game season (he has 94 carries over the last four games, which prorates to 376 carries over a full season). My attitude towards him is the same as my attitude towards Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton last season: I'm impressed by the early results, but I need to see more. There's little upside and tons of downside to ranking him as a top 10 player right now.

Click to expand...

No disrespect my man EBF, and I'm sure you are a consistent player with this mindset. But alternatively, this is also the type of thinking that could be the reason for a 3rd or 4th place finish as opposed to having a championship banner flying. Sometimes, when talent is obviously present and producing like this, you have to seize the moment (and player) instead of waiting around for more "sample size", as I hear so many guys speaking of. I certainly learned my lesson from not pursuing Chris Johnson in the beginning, even after him putting up huge numbers on a "small sample size", I still wasn't truly sold. Is Charles as good as Chris Johnson? Maybe, maybe not. Can he be as productive as Ray Rice? Certainly. Or even Chris Johnson?????

Click to expand...

The time to get guys like Charles, CJ, Mendenhall, and Rice is BEFORE they show anything on the field. At one point all of them were 4th-7th round type picks in 12 team startup dynasty drafts. That's when you should have grabbed them if you liked them, not after they had already popped. The buy low moment already came and went for Jamaal Charles. Now his price tag is sky high. You will have to pick him in the top 10-25, which means there's almost zero upside and tons of downside. The margin for error is razor thin. If he succeeds, his trade value will only rise slightly. If he busts, his trade value will drop considerably. The top of the draft is not the place to get fancy. When you use a top 10 pick on someone, you have to KNOW that he's going to be a rock in your lineup barring injury. Chris Johnson turned out to be a great pick in the top 10 this year. Even so, he's gone from being the 6-12th ranked player to being the 1st-3rd ranked player. Not exactly a huge leap. Meanwhile other speculative top 10 picks like Matt Forte and Steve Slaton have completely fallen off a cliff. The problem with using a top 10 pick on Charles is that you are buying him at his upside without factoring in the downside. Unless you're 100% convinced that he's a long term star, I don't think you can consider taking him in the top 10. I know I won't.

Great point EBF. I would like to know who your players of today, will be the JC of tomorrow. Thanks.

Fear & Loathing · Jan 4, 2010

EBF said:
The time to get guys like Charles, CJ, Mendenhall, and Rice is BEFORE they show anything on the field. At one point all of them were 4th-7th round type picks in 12 team startup dynasty drafts. That's when you should have grabbed them if you liked them, not after they had already popped. The buy low moment already came and went for Jamaal Charles. Now his price tag is sky high. You will have to pick him in the top 10-25, which means there's almost zero upside and tons of downside. The margin for error is razor thin. If he succeeds, his trade value will only rise slightly. If he busts, his trade value will drop considerably. The top of the draft is not the place to get fancy. When you use a top 10 pick on someone, you have to KNOW that he's going to be a rock in your lineup barring injury. Chris Johnson turned out to be a great pick in the top 10 this year. Even so, he's gone from being the 6-12th ranked player to being the 1st-3rd ranked player. Not exactly a huge leap. Meanwhile other speculative top 10 picks like Matt Forte and Steve Slaton have completely fallen off a cliff. The problem with using a top 10 pick on Charles is that you are buying him at his upside without factoring in the downside. Unless you're 100% convinced that he's a long term star, I don't think you can consider taking him in the top 10. I know I won't.

And you would have also passed on Chris Johnson last summer in the first round. The point isn't to say that Charles is Chris Johnson's equal, but that your philosophy will have you missing out on players with sky-high ceilings. I'm not saying your philosophy is wrong, just that it sacrifices upside for the sake of security.

Kitrick Taylor · Jan 4, 2010

Fear & Loathing said:
EBF said:

The time to get guys like Charles, CJ, Mendenhall, and Rice is BEFORE they show anything on the field. At one point all of them were 4th-7th round type picks in 12 team startup dynasty drafts. That's when you should have grabbed them if you liked them, not after they had already popped. The buy low moment already came and went for Jamaal Charles. Now his price tag is sky high. You will have to pick him in the top 10-25, which means there's almost zero upside and tons of downside. The margin for error is razor thin. If he succeeds, his trade value will only rise slightly. If he busts, his trade value will drop considerably. The top of the draft is not the place to get fancy. When you use a top 10 pick on someone, you have to KNOW that he's going to be a rock in your lineup barring injury. Chris Johnson turned out to be a great pick in the top 10 this year. Even so, he's gone from being the 6-12th ranked player to being the 1st-3rd ranked player. Not exactly a huge leap. Meanwhile other speculative top 10 picks like Matt Forte and Steve Slaton have completely fallen off a cliff. The problem with using a top 10 pick on Charles is that you are buying him at his upside without factoring in the downside. Unless you're 100% convinced that he's a long term star, I don't think you can consider taking him in the top 10. I know I won't.

Click to expand...

And you would have also passed on Chris Johnson last summer in the first round. The point isn't to say that Charles is Chris Johnson's equal, but that your philosophy will have you missing out on players with sky-high ceilings. I'm not saying your philosophy is wrong, just that it sacrifices upside for the sake of security.

I agree with EBF on this one. I passed on Chris Johnson in my redraft league this year to take Frank Gore. At that point, Forte and Slaton were already both off the board. Neither of those owners made the playoffs. I won the title thanks to the Rodgers/Gore combo. I'm sure I probably would have won with CJ as well, but as EBF points out, most were higher on Forte and some on Slaton going into 2009 than CJ, or at least it was close. I took the safer route with Gore and it paid off. Given a similar option in 2010 between Gore and Charles, I'll take the stability of Gore over the upside of Charles.

EBF · Jan 4, 2010

Rodeojones said:
EBF said:

kremenull said:

EBF said:

I think Charles is far too speculative to warrant a top 10 pick. He has the potential to eventually justify that kind of ranking, but most of his production has come in the last four games. That's not a big enough sample size to draw strong enough conclusions to rank him as one of the best players in all of FF. I've seen a lot of guys fluke their way to a good stretch run. Ron Dayne, Ladell Betts, Lee Suggs, and William Green come to mind. Charles is much more impressive than these guys, but the broader point is that it's entirely possible for someone to play way over his head for a period of several games. I would like to see Charles perform well over a bigger sample size before I conclude that he's a superstar.Most of his big games have come against crappy teams and his workload over the past few weeks is probably not sustainable over a 16 game season (he has 94 carries over the last four games, which prorates to 376 carries over a full season). My attitude towards him is the same as my attitude towards Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton last season: I'm impressed by the early results, but I need to see more. There's little upside and tons of downside to ranking him as a top 10 player right now.

Click to expand...

No disrespect my man EBF, and I'm sure you are a consistent player with this mindset. But alternatively, this is also the type of thinking that could be the reason for a 3rd or 4th place finish as opposed to having a championship banner flying. Sometimes, when talent is obviously present and producing like this, you have to seize the moment (and player) instead of waiting around for more "sample size", as I hear so many guys speaking of. I certainly learned my lesson from not pursuing Chris Johnson in the beginning, even after him putting up huge numbers on a "small sample size", I still wasn't truly sold. Is Charles as good as Chris Johnson? Maybe, maybe not. Can he be as productive as Ray Rice? Certainly. Or even Chris Johnson?????

Click to expand...

The time to get guys like Charles, CJ, Mendenhall, and Rice is BEFORE they show anything on the field. At one point all of them were 4th-7th round type picks in 12 team startup dynasty drafts. That's when you should have grabbed them if you liked them, not after they had already popped. The buy low moment already came and went for Jamaal Charles. Now his price tag is sky high. You will have to pick him in the top 10-25, which means there's almost zero upside and tons of downside. The margin for error is razor thin. If he succeeds, his trade value will only rise slightly. If he busts, his trade value will drop considerably. The top of the draft is not the place to get fancy. When you use a top 10 pick on someone, you have to KNOW that he's going to be a rock in your lineup barring injury. Chris Johnson turned out to be a great pick in the top 10 this year. Even so, he's gone from being the 6-12th ranked player to being the 1st-3rd ranked player. Not exactly a huge leap. Meanwhile other speculative top 10 picks like Matt Forte and Steve Slaton have completely fallen off a cliff. The problem with using a top 10 pick on Charles is that you are buying him at his upside without factoring in the downside. Unless you're 100% convinced that he's a long term star, I don't think you can consider taking him in the top 10. I know I won't.

Click to expand...

Great point EBF. I would like to know who your players of today, will be the JC of tomorrow. Thanks.

Look at most of the big breakouts of recent years and you'll see a pattern:Aaron RodgersPhilip RiversRay RiceRashard MendenhallJamaal CharlesFrank GoreMaurice Jones-DrewChris JohnsonRoddy WhiteSidney RiceDeSean JacksonAntonio BryantMike Sims-WalkerAll of them were high NFL draft picks whose value was suppressed by a lack of hype and/or opportunity. The talent was always there. It just wasn't obvious to the general FF public until they got some quality opportunities. If you're looking for breakout players, I think you have to start by looking at all of the high NFL draft picks whose talent remains mysterious due to a lack of quality opportunities. That list would include names like:Mark SanchezMatt StaffordBrady QuinnJosh FreemanKevin KolbChad HenneStephen McGeeFelix JonesDonald BrownBeanie WellsLeSean McCoyShonn GreeneMichael BushTashard ChoiceLeon WashingtonDarrius Heyward-BeyMichael CrabtreeJeremy MaclinPercy HarvinRobert MeachemHakeem NicksKenny BrittAnthony GonzalezDonnie AveryDevin ThomasJordy NelsonDwayne JarrettMohamed MassaquoiMalcolm KellyJacoby JonesLaurent RobinsonJason HillJames JonesBrandon TateMike WallaceEarly DoucetMario ManninghamAndre CaldwellDeon ButlerMike ThomasLouis MurphyAustin CollieJohnny KnoxI'd venture to guess that a significant portion of next year's surprise breakouts are on this list, but there are a lot of names here and most of them aren't destined for greatness (or even competence). Once you have your initial list you have to try to gauge their talent level and weed out the prospects who seem hopeless. Trim the list down to the handful of guys who seem to offer realistic breakout potential at a good cost for their risk/upside combination. Those are the guys you should focus on acquiring. The other breakouts will come from 2010 rookies and a select few "out of nowhere" unheralded veterans like Miles Austin and Jerome Harrison. Keep an eye on low profile players who have managed to stick on NFL rosters for several years. That usually means they have some talent. Watch out for warning signs that indicate a team's confidence in an unheralded player. When the Saints traded Donte Stallworth and started Marques Colston in preseason games prior to his rookie season, it was an obvious indicator that they liked him a lot. When they cut 4th round pick Antonio Pittman in favor of undrafted free agent Pierre Thomas, it was an obvious indicator that they liked him a lot. Sometimes you get the best of both worlds and you have a team tipping its hand showing confidence in an unproven player who was also a high draft pick. When the Saints traded Ricky Williams a year after drafting Deuce McAllister, it was pretty clear that they had a lot of confidence that Deuce would produce even though he had barely played. If the Colts were to trade Joseph Addai in the offseason, you would have to read it as a vote of confidence in Donald Brown.

benm3218 · Jan 4, 2010

EBF said:
Rodeojones said:

EBF said:

kremenull said:

EBF said:

I think Charles is far too speculative to warrant a top 10 pick. He has the potential to eventually justify that kind of ranking, but most of his production has come in the last four games. That's not a big enough sample size to draw strong enough conclusions to rank him as one of the best players in all of FF. I've seen a lot of guys fluke their way to a good stretch run. Ron Dayne, Ladell Betts, Lee Suggs, and William Green come to mind. Charles is much more impressive than these guys, but the broader point is that it's entirely possible for someone to play way over his head for a period of several games. I would like to see Charles perform well over a bigger sample size before I conclude that he's a superstar.Most of his big games have come against crappy teams and his workload over the past few weeks is probably not sustainable over a 16 game season (he has 94 carries over the last four games, which prorates to 376 carries over a full season). My attitude towards him is the same as my attitude towards Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton last season: I'm impressed by the early results, but I need to see more. There's little upside and tons of downside to ranking him as a top 10 player right now.

Click to expand...

No disrespect my man EBF, and I'm sure you are a consistent player with this mindset. But alternatively, this is also the type of thinking that could be the reason for a 3rd or 4th place finish as opposed to having a championship banner flying. Sometimes, when talent is obviously present and producing like this, you have to seize the moment (and player) instead of waiting around for more "sample size", as I hear so many guys speaking of. I certainly learned my lesson from not pursuing Chris Johnson in the beginning, even after him putting up huge numbers on a "small sample size", I still wasn't truly sold. Is Charles as good as Chris Johnson? Maybe, maybe not. Can he be as productive as Ray Rice? Certainly. Or even Chris Johnson?????

Click to expand...

The time to get guys like Charles, CJ, Mendenhall, and Rice is BEFORE they show anything on the field. At one point all of them were 4th-7th round type picks in 12 team startup dynasty drafts. That's when you should have grabbed them if you liked them, not after they had already popped. The buy low moment already came and went for Jamaal Charles. Now his price tag is sky high. You will have to pick him in the top 10-25, which means there's almost zero upside and tons of downside. The margin for error is razor thin. If he succeeds, his trade value will only rise slightly. If he busts, his trade value will drop considerably. The top of the draft is not the place to get fancy. When you use a top 10 pick on someone, you have to KNOW that he's going to be a rock in your lineup barring injury. Chris Johnson turned out to be a great pick in the top 10 this year. Even so, he's gone from being the 6-12th ranked player to being the 1st-3rd ranked player. Not exactly a huge leap. Meanwhile other speculative top 10 picks like Matt Forte and Steve Slaton have completely fallen off a cliff. The problem with using a top 10 pick on Charles is that you are buying him at his upside without factoring in the downside. Unless you're 100% convinced that he's a long term star, I don't think you can consider taking him in the top 10. I know I won't.

Click to expand...

Great point EBF. I would like to know who your players of today, will be the JC of tomorrow. Thanks.

Click to expand...

Look at most of the big breakouts of recent years and you'll see a pattern:Aaron RodgersPhilip RiversRay RiceRashard MendenhallJamaal CharlesFrank GoreMaurice Jones-DrewChris JohnsonRoddy WhiteSidney RiceDeSean JacksonAntonio BryantMike Sims-WalkerAll of them were high NFL draft picks whose value was suppressed by a lack of hype and/or opportunity. The talent was always there. It just wasn't obvious to the general FF public until they got some quality opportunities. If you're looking for breakout players, I think you have to start by looking at all of the high NFL draft picks whose talent remains mysterious due to a lack of quality opportunities. That list would include names like:Mark SanchezMatt StaffordBrady QuinnJosh FreemanKevin KolbChad HenneStephen McGeeFelix JonesDonald BrownBeanie WellsLeSean McCoyShonn GreeneMichael BushTashard ChoiceLeon WashingtonDarrius Heyward-BeyMichael CrabtreeJeremy MaclinPercy HarvinRobert MeachemHakeem NicksKenny BrittAnthony GonzalezDonnie AveryDevin ThomasJordy NelsonDwayne JarrettMohamed MassaquoiMalcolm KellyJacoby JonesLaurent RobinsonJason HillJames JonesBrandon TateMike WallaceEarly DoucetMario ManninghamAndre CaldwellDeon ButlerMike ThomasLouis MurphyAustin CollieJohnny KnoxI'd venture to guess that a significant portion of next year's surprise breakouts are on this list, but there are a lot of names here and most of them aren't destined for greatness (or even competence). Once you have your initial list you have to try to gauge their talent level and weed out the prospects who seem hopeless. Trim the list down to the handful of guys who seem to offer realistic breakout potential at a good cost for their risk/upside combination. Those are the guys you should focus on acquiring. The other breakouts will come from 2010 rookies and a select few "out of nowhere" unheralded veterans like Miles Austin and Jerome Harrison. Keep an eye on low profile players who have managed to stick on NFL rosters for several years. That usually means they have some talent. Watch out for warning signs that indicate a team's confidence in an unheralded player. When the Saints traded Donte Stallworth and started Marques Colston in preseason games prior to his rookie season, it was an obvious indicator that they liked him a lot. When they cut 4th round pick Antonio Pittman in favor of undrafted free agent Pierre Thomas, it was an obvious indicator that they liked him a lot. Sometimes you get the best of both worlds and you have a team tipping its hand showing confidence in an unproven player who was also a high draft pick. When the Saints traded Ricky Williams a year after drafting Deuce McAllister, it was pretty clear that they had a lot of confidence that Deuce would produce even though he had barely played. If the Colts were to trade Joseph Addai in the offseason, you would have to read it as a vote of confidence in Donald Brown.

great posting

EBF · Jan 4, 2010

Fear & Loathing said:
And you would have also passed on Chris Johnson last summer in the first round. The point isn't to say that Charles is Chris Johnson's equal, but that your philosophy will have you missing out on players with sky-high ceilings. I'm not saying your philosophy is wrong, just that it sacrifices upside for the sake of security.

You're definitely right. I passed on Chris Johnson in every draft this year. Each year there are maybe 1-2 guys picked in the top 10-20 who will take that quantum leap and outperform the rest of the players at their position. Johnson was one of those guys this year and he ended up having upside at every rung in the draft ladder. He was a good pick at any draft slot.That said, you don't need Chris Johnson to win your league. If you went the safer route and took someone like Gore, Fitzgerald, Wayne, Peterson, Moss, or MJD, you still would've had a great shot to win your league if your other picks performed well. I don't think the first round is about finding the one guy who is going to explode. I think it's about adding a bankable starter who's going to be a rock in your lineup barring injury. Rookies and second year players are dangerous propositions this early because it's hard to know exactly what you're getting. I've used very high picks on unproven players in the past, but only when I knew with near 100% certainty what to expect from them. I didn't have enough faith in Johnson, Forte, or Slaton to take them in any of my leagues this season. I don't own those guys on any of my teams. Yes, I missed out on Johnson's mammoth upside, but I also didn't suffer the consequences of Forte or Slaton. As I said before, there is no margin for error in the early rounds. Anything less than elite production will be a disappointment because there are almost always some low risk/high production propositions left on the board. The early rounds are all about certainty. Draft players who you're certain will perform. Maybe there was a way to know that Johnson was for real while Slaton/Forte were not. He was the only one of the trio who had a first round pedigree and elite physical abilities. Even so, for every person who was certain that Johnson was a stud, there were just as many people certain that Forte and Slaton would keep producing. Taking speculative propositions with early picks is a dangerous game. Some are better at it than others. If you have a good batting average drafting speculative players at their upside then by all means keep doing it. However, if you feel the slightest bit of uncertainty about an unknown proposition, I think you should err towards caution. It's better to miss Chris Johnson for Frank Gore than it is to miss Frank Gore for Steve Slaton. That is the whole crux of my position. In general, I think the best time to gamble on speculative players is in the middle rounds when there's enough upside to offset the risk of disappointment. Rashard Mendenhall, Ray Rice, Jonathan Stewart, and Jamaal Charles were great picks in that range this year. If you drafted them in the middle rounds, you got a 1st-2nd round value at a 4th-7th round price. If you took a bust like Felix Jones or Darren McFadden in the same range, it didn't kill you like it would have if you had used a high pick on Slaton or Forte. Basically, the Mendenhall/Rice/Stewart/Charles/Felix/DMC group offered the same risk/reward equation as the CJ/Forte/Slaton group at a fraction of the price. As for Charles in 2010, I think he falls somewhere between Slaton and Johnson. I think he's more impressive than Slaton was, but he doesn't have the first round pedigree and elite physical measurables of Chris Johnson. I don't think he can sustain his current YPC or workload over a full season. I will probably pass on him in most of my drafts next season because believers will take him higher than where his risk/reward equation dictates he should go. I might miss out if he turns into a superstar, but that's okay because the players I take instead of him will probably be good and I'll be mining the late rounds for cheaper gems.

Tau837 · Jan 4, 2010

Great series of posts here, EBF. :goodposting:

Fear & Loathing · Jan 4, 2010

EBF said:
I didn't have enough faith in Johnson, Forte, or Slaton to take them in any of my leagues this season. I don't own those guys on any of my teams. Yes, I missed out on Johnson's mammoth upside, but I also didn't suffer the consequences of Forte or Slaton. As I said before, there is no margin for error in the early rounds. Anything less than elite production will be a disappointment because there are almost always some low risk/high production propositions left on the board. The early rounds are all about certainty. Draft players who you're certain will perform. Maybe there was a way to know that Johnson was for real while Slaton/Forte were not. He was the only one of the trio who had a first round pedigree and elite physical abilities. Even so, for every person who was certain that Johnson was a stud, there were just as many people certain that Forte and Slaton would keep producing. Taking speculative propositions with early picks is a dangerous game. Some are better at it than others. If you have a good batting average drafting speculative players at their upside then by all means keep doing it. However, if you feel the slightest bit of uncertainty about an unknown proposition, I think you should err towards caution. It's better to miss Chris Johnson for Frank Gore than it is to miss Frank Gore for Steve Slaton. That is the whole crux of my position.

I loathed Slaton and Forte this summer, but that had nothing to do with Chris Johnson. I think it's a mistake to lump the three of them in together just because they were all second year players. I'm in total agreement that the first round is about certainty. I couldn't have been more certain about Chris Johnson going into the season, but I had zero faith in Slaton and didn't like Forte's ADP at all. I'm still doing some homework on Jamaal Charles, but I can see myself having a pretty high level of certainty about him in the late first round this summer. I'm trying to pick him apart to find a major concern, but I've come up empty.

benm3218 · Jan 4, 2010

Fear & Loathing said:
EBF said:

I didn't have enough faith in Johnson, Forte, or Slaton to take them in any of my leagues this season. I don't own those guys on any of my teams. Yes, I missed out on Johnson's mammoth upside, but I also didn't suffer the consequences of Forte or Slaton. As I said before, there is no margin for error in the early rounds. Anything less than elite production will be a disappointment because there are almost always some low risk/high production propositions left on the board. The early rounds are all about certainty. Draft players who you're certain will perform. Maybe there was a way to know that Johnson was for real while Slaton/Forte were not. He was the only one of the trio who had a first round pedigree and elite physical abilities. Even so, for every person who was certain that Johnson was a stud, there were just as many people certain that Forte and Slaton would keep producing. Taking speculative propositions with early picks is a dangerous game. Some are better at it than others. If you have a good batting average drafting speculative players at their upside then by all means keep doing it. However, if you feel the slightest bit of uncertainty about an unknown proposition, I think you should err towards caution. It's better to miss Chris Johnson for Frank Gore than it is to miss Frank Gore for Steve Slaton. That is the whole crux of my position.

Click to expand...

I loathed Slaton and Forte this summer, but that had nothing to do with Chris Johnson. I think it's a mistake to lump the three of them in together just because they were all second year players. I'm in total agreement that the first round is about certainty. I couldn't have been more certain about Chris Johnson going into the season, but I had zero faith in Slaton and didn't like Forte's ADP at all. I'm still doing some homework on Jamaal Charles, but I can see myself having a pretty high level of certainty about him in the late first round this summer. I'm trying to pick him apart to find a major concern, but I've come up empty.

Size? Isn't he a small scat back? I don't know... :goodposting:

LOCO · Jan 4, 2010

Has anyone traded for/traded away Charles? curious about his trade value.

Steed · Jan 4, 2010

thriftyrocker said:
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

easy on the Jacoby Jones love, the dude is talented but when Owen Daniels comes back, IMO the best Jacoby can do is #3 in target in that O.

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I would still give you 10 Laurent Robinson's for one Jacoby Jones. I think Laurent is a legit NFL player but his upside is right around Jerricho Cotchery. Decent speed, decent hands, decent height, great nothing. He will never be an 8+ TD player. He will never approach 90+ receptions. If you have ever tried to sell Cotchery, he has little value on his own.Jacoby Jones had 7 TDs this year. If his role increases again - and there is a lot of room for it to increase regardless of the TE - he'll win you a lot more games than Laurent. Even if his Meachemsian TD rate drops a little, he'll still help more than Laurent.

LRob is on record running a 4.38 and his jump measurables are off the charts. Call him injury prone, but low upside he is not.http://www.thehuddle.com/nfl/2007/NFL-combine-results.php

thriftyrocker · Jan 4, 2010

Steed said:
thriftyrocker said:

Decent speed, decent hands, decent height, great nothing.

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LRob is on record running a 4.38 and his jump measurables are off the charts. Call him injury prone, but low upside he is not.http://www.thehuddle.com/nfl/2007/NFL-combine-results.php

Yeah, I saw that before I said "decent". There are plenty of low-price guys that are as fast or faster. Louis Murphy. Chaz Schilens. Devin Aromashodu. Eddie Royal. Devin Thomas. Mike Thomas. Johnny Knox. Andre Caldwell. Almost all of those have more than 2 career TDs in a lot less games/starts.

lyon812 · Jan 4, 2010

bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
easy on the Jacoby Jones love, the dude is talented but when Owen Daniels comes back, IMO the best Jacoby can do is #3 in target in that O.

Unless Daniels goes elsewhere, a possibility that has been discussed numerous times, particularly after the Texans drafted two TEs.

GreatLakesMike said:
Do you have any links to back this up?

I’m not sure what you’re looking for in terms of links. You’re asking me to backup my statement: was in Mangini's doghouse as recently as a month ago for what seemed spurious reasons (to fans of Harrison).Was he in the doghouse? Yes.

Were there reasons? Yes.

Did they seem spurious to fans of Harrison? Yes. Many of Harrison’s backers wanted him to get the ball because he was so capable when he touched it. This was true last year as well. They thought there was absolutely no reason Harrison shouldn’t be getting significant PT.

Maybe you want links like these, which I got by googling “Harrison in mangini doghouse”:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/312392-...otball-rankings

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/319430-...ed-eric-mangini

http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/messages/chro...63/0/0/19078453

http://football.razzball.com/jerome-harris...ut-of-the-pound

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/lofiv...hp/t509079.html

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/view...c.php?p=8468538

http://www.ohio.com/sports/browns/80551942.html

http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/article.cfm?article_id=567

http://community.foxsports.com/john_halpin...nlikely_to_play

http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/conten...articleid=34256

coolnerd · Jan 4, 2010

LOCO said:
Has anyone traded for/traded away Charles? curious about his trade value.

I did before he blew up and will give those to you if need be, but I have not seen anything post his late season run.Not your question, but since he is being discussed in the section of the thread, I did get an offer for me to trade the 1.02 for Jerome Harrion and 3rd (which I promptly turned down).

Instinctive · Jan 4, 2010

FreeBaGeL said:
WKTSWAY said:

EBF said:

Sinrj said:

Well i'm not buying it. That would make him a first round pick in any startup dynasty draft. Would you seriously build your franchise around Jamal Charles?I would rather have Stewart, Jackson or Gore at this point. I could make a strong case for Williams too and Mendenhall is looking pretty good as well.

Click to expand...

I agree. Charles has been fantastic over the last month, but four games isn't a big enough sample size for me to move him that high up on my board. There's no way I would trade Stewart for him. I also can't see myself moving DeAngelo, Gore, or Mendenhall for him either. Even though he was a beast in college and a pretty high draft pick, I need to see more.

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While I agree #5 is too high, he has more yds since he became the starter than anyone not named Chris Johnson (and that was before today's game), it has been over 2 months since he became the starter.

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William Green, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, and Ryan Grant all had similar stretches when they took over the starting job.Just saying...

The same Ryan Grant who has had over 1000 yards in each of the two seasons since becoming starter? The one who came back from a minor injury riddled 08 campaign to have 1200+ yards as well as double digit TDs? And only scored under 10 points ONCE all year in my leagues?If Charles ends up like Grant, I will be ecstatic. ECSTATIC. Maybe you shouldn't put Grant in the group above....... :thumbup:

Fear & Loathing · Jan 4, 2010

benm3218 said:
Size? Isn't he a small scat back? I don't know...

Jamaal Charles: 5'11/199Chris Johnson: 5'11/200Todd Haley yesterday: "We started by saying that this was a 15-carry per game guy. He's forced us to think differently about him." I've had the same reaction as Haley.

lyon812 · Jan 4, 2010

Fear & Loathing said:
benm3218 said:

Size? Isn't he a small scat back? I don't know...

Click to expand...

Jamaal Charles: 5'11/199Chris Johnson: 5'11/200

Just for the sake of comparison, I though it'd be interesting to see how other frequently-discussed smaller backs stacked up. Sorry if someone did this before. Jerious Norwood 5'11/209C.J. Spiller 5'11/195Jahvid Best 5'10/195Jerome Harrison 5'9/205Leon Washington 5'8/195Justin Forsett 5'8/194Noel Devine 5'8/176Darren Sproles 5'6/185(stats from espn.com for college players; nfl.com for others)

gianmarco · Jan 4, 2010

Tiki Barber -- 5'10, 205 lbs

Barry Sanders -- 5'8 200 lbs

Walter Payton -- 5'10 200 lbs

Now, I'm nowhere NEAR saying Charles is anything like these guys, but I think far too often players get pigeon-holed because of their smaller stature when in fact the above guys were more than capable of both performing at an elite level and being durable. This notion that these small guys are "scat" backs and can't handle a full load is very misleading.

lyon812 · Jan 4, 2010

gianmarco said:
Tiki Barber -- 5'10, 205 lbsBarry Sanders -- 5'8 200 lbsWalter Payton -- 5'10 200 lbsNow, I'm nowhere NEAR saying Charles is anything like these guys, but I think far too often players get pigeon-holed because of their smaller stature when in fact the above guys were more than capable of both performing at an elite level and being durable. This notion that these small guys are "scat" backs and can't handle a full load is very misleading.

Aye, I agree completely. People also see weight and don't realize that two people can have identical dimensions but have different musculature; one could be much stronger in the legs.I'm curious if the recent success of smaller backs will help alleviate some of this pigeonholing, or if it's something that will simply always be around.

dickey moe · Jan 4, 2010

Also interested in forecasts for Calvin Johnson in dynasty/keeper PPR leagues. FBGs still has him ranked very high, but considering his tendency for injury, a poor offense, and questionable (in my opinion) QB talent affecting his opportunity for getting the ball, I don't see him in the Top 5 right now, personally.

SSOG · Jan 4, 2010

Sinrj said:
Mendenhall situation (role, team, front office) alone is much better then any of the players you named and this was pretty much his rookie season so i'm not willing to downgrade him based on an 8 games stretch. His upside and stability is far greater too. Not even close imo.

You want to rate him higher based on situation, then that's your prerogative. I was just saying that he hasn't looked any better than a number of other "good enough" RBs like Forte, Moreno, Lynch, or Smith. Not to me, at least.

Portis Homer said:
You also need to look at Mendenhall's carries, many weeks he was only seeing 10-15 carries which accounts for the lack of 100 yard games.

I think the fact that he only averaged 3.8 ypc over that stretch is more to blame. Mendenhall had a sub-4.0 ypc figure in 6 of the last 8 games. You could have given him 25 carries at that rate and he still wouldn't have topped 100 in 6 of the last 8 games.

Herm23 said:
I also believe this is much more Mendenhall's floor than anywhere close to his ceiling. The Steelers curiously became one of the highest passing teams in the league this season, giving Mendenhall less than 20 carries in 7 games since week 4. They also missed the post season after going to this pass happy attack. Something tells me they will re-evaluate that strategy over the off-season and Mendenhall will be a good bet to receive 20 carries on a regular basis next season.

There's nothing curious about it. Name the three most talented players on the entire offense. I dunno about you, but I've got Roethlisberger, Holmes, and Ward. Add in Wallace, Miller, and the fact that the O-line can't run-block (heck, they can barely pass-block) and it makes far more sense for Pitt to go pass-heavy than run-heavy.

kremenull said:
No disrespect my man EBF, and I'm sure you are a consistent player with this mindset. But alternatively, this is also the type of thinking that could be the reason for a 3rd or 4th place finish as opposed to having a championship banner flying.

The difference between 3rd/4th place and a championship banner is a couple of fluke performances in the playoffs. This year, a duo of Peterson and MJD would have gotten their asses kicked by a Charles/Harrison combo. Having the best team increases your odds, but not as much as everyone likes to pretend.The key to fantasy football isn't always having the best team, it's always having one of the 4-6 best teams. The goal is to consistently make the playoffs and then hope that your guys get hot at the right time (or else hope you get some favorable matchups). I'd rather be guaranteed the 4th best team than have a 50/50 shot of having the best team or the worst team.

SSOG · Jan 4, 2010

bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
easy on the Jacoby Jones love, the dude is talented but when Owen Daniels comes back, IMO the best Jacoby can do is #3 in target in that O.

Not when Daniels comes back. If Daniels comes back. And even if Jacoby is the #3 target... Houston's passing offense is explosive enough to support 3 options.

new-guru said:
You say Willis McGahee will probably be lost due to Salary. He looks like he still has lots left in the tank. Wher might he go?

Is he still worth staching in a Taxi Squad?

His Talent was Top notch.

Is it still?

Will anyone make him a lead back?

I was never a big fan of McGahee in the first place, and his performance this year hasn't done a whole lot to change my mind.

dickey moe said:
Also interested in forecasts for Calvin Johnson in dynasty/keeper PPR leagues. FBGs still has him ranked very high, but considering his tendency for injury, a poor offense, and questionable (in my opinion) QB talent affecting his opportunity for getting the ball, I don't see him in the Top 5 right now, personally.

The guy won't turn 25 until the beginning of next season. Even after the dud this year, Calvin has the 9th most receiving yards through age 24 of any WR in history, and six of the guys in front of him had 4 seasons by that age (Calvin only has 3). On a per-season basis, the only guys ahead of him are Randy Moss (1349 yards a season through age 24), John Jefferson (1143 yards a season through 24), Fitzgerald (1136 yards a season through 24), and Ike Bruce (1130 yards a season through 24). Calvin stands 5th at 1023 yards a season through age 24. That's some pretty heady company (John Jefferson is the best young WR that no one knows- in his first 3 seasons he ranked 1st, 4th, and 1st in fantasy points, topped 1000 yards and 10 scores in all 3 years, and earned two first-team AP All Pros).Calvin offers a very unique blend of pedigree and production at a youthful age that can only be matched by Moss and Fitz. His talent is off-the-charts. I could see an argument for making Fitz and Andre a tier unto themselves and dropping Calvin into tier 2 with Wayne and VJax (I personally wouldn't, but I can see the argument), but I definitely wouldn't drop him out of the top 5.

GreatLakesMike · Jan 4, 2010

lyon812 said:
Maybe you want links like these, which I got by googling “Harrison in mangini doghouse”:

My bad.

FUBAR · Jan 4, 2010

SSOG said:
kremenull said:

No disrespect my man EBF, and I'm sure you are a consistent player with this mindset. But alternatively, this is also the type of thinking that could be the reason for a 3rd or 4th place finish as opposed to having a championship banner flying.

Click to expand...

The difference between 3rd/4th place and a championship banner is a couple of fluke performances in the playoffs. This year, a duo of Peterson and MJD would have gotten their asses kicked by a Charles/Harrison combo. Having the best team increases your odds, but not as much as everyone likes to pretend.The key to fantasy football isn't always having the best team, it's always having one of the 4-6 best teams. The goal is to consistently make the playoffs and then hope that your guys get hot at the right time (or else hope you get some favorable matchups). I'd rather be guaranteed the 4th best team than have a 50/50 shot of having the best team or the worst team.

Face it, none of us have any control over what happens in the games, the best we can do is acquire good players, draft well, and hope for the best. Of course, there's no guarantee you'll be 4th either, but I understand and mostly agree with what you're saying.

BeTheMatch · Jan 4, 2010

gianmarco said:
Tiki Barber -- 5'10, 205 lbsBarry Sanders -- 5'8 200 lbsWalter Payton -- 5'10 200 lbsNow, I'm nowhere NEAR saying Charles is anything like these guys, but I think far too often players get pigeon-holed because of their smaller stature when in fact the above guys were more than capable of both performing at an elite level and being durable. This notion that these small guys are "scat" backs and can't handle a full load is very misleading.

The defensive players were smaller in Payton's day and even in Barry's. So that's not exactly a 100 percent valid comparison.

Lott's Fingertip · Jan 4, 2010

SSOG said:
kremenull said:

No disrespect my man EBF, and I'm sure you are a consistent player with this mindset. But alternatively, this is also the type of thinking that could be the reason for a 3rd or 4th place finish as opposed to having a championship banner flying.

Click to expand...

The difference between 3rd/4th place and a championship banner is a couple of fluke performances in the playoffs. This year, a duo of Peterson and MJD would have gotten their asses kicked by a Charles/Harrison combo. Having the best team increases your odds, but not as much as everyone likes to pretend.The key to fantasy football isn't always having the best team, it's always having one of the 4-6 best teams. The goal is to consistently make the playoffs and then hope that your guys get hot at the right time (or else hope you get some favorable matchups). I'd rather be guaranteed the 4th best team than have a 50/50 shot of having the best team or the worst team.

EXACTAMUNDO.I had a dominating season in one of my dynasty leagues, scoring 130 pts/week against a league average of 110 pts/wk. Through our 13 week regular season I would have beat the #6 scoring team, who was a little below our league average in scoring, 9 times, or 69% of the time. I was 42-23 against the #2 - #6 teams overall, a bit under 65%. Having to win in week 15 AND week 16 to be the champion, and using that 65% figure, my dominating season would yield a championship matchup 65% of the time and an actual championship only about 42% of the time. That is with a dominating team. If I don't get a week 14 bye, that becomes a championship matchup 42% of the time and a championship about 27% of the time.

A great team gets you to the playoffs, but there is considerable variance in H2H leagues. Heck, the #3 scoring team in this league barely squeaked into the playoffs via tiebreakers due to being 1-4 against the 3 lowest scoring teams in the league.

SSOG · Jan 4, 2010

BeTheMatch said:
gianmarco said:

Tiki Barber -- 5'10, 205 lbsBarry Sanders -- 5'8 200 lbsWalter Payton -- 5'10 200 lbsNow, I'm nowhere NEAR saying Charles is anything like these guys, but I think far too often players get pigeon-holed because of their smaller stature when in fact the above guys were more than capable of both performing at an elite level and being durable. This notion that these small guys are "scat" backs and can't handle a full load is very misleading.

Click to expand...

The defensive players were smaller in Payton's day and even in Barry's. So that's not exactly a 100 percent valid comparison.

MJD - 5'8"/205Ray Rice - 5'9"/195Brian Westbrook - 5'8"/200Chris Johnson - 5'11"/195Of course, with the exception of CJ, all of these guys are much shorter than Charles, but weight is a radically overrated attribute for an RB. Historically, most of the best RBs have always been 5'10" +/- an inch and 200lbs +/- 5 pounds.If I were to worry about anything regarding Charles, it'd be the height, but even that's not a dealbreaker depending on his running style and his build.

thriftyrocker · Jan 4, 2010

SSOG said:
new-guru said:

You say Willis McGahee will probably be lost due to Salary. He looks like he still has lots left in the tank. Wher might he go?Is he still worth staching in a Taxi Squad?His Talent was Top notch.Is it still?Will anyone make him a lead back?

Click to expand...

I was never a big fan of McGahee in the first place, and his performance this year hasn't done a whole lot to change my mind.

I agree he was never an elite talent. But he is a good talent, and he is playing hungry. He did have a career best YPC this year at 5.0. And his TDs were a career best at 14. Hard to say what NFL teams will do, but I'd bet on someone making him an option 1a. The closest parallel I can think of is Thomas Jones. As an early 1st round pick, he didn't seem very good until he left Arizona and showed up in TB ripped out of his gourd. If the price is free (or even up to a late 2nd rounder depending on need), I would definitely grab him. His market value will not skyrocket because he's already 28. But he has the potential to be productive for a number of years given he hasn't been a lead back in 2 years.

EBF · Jan 4, 2010

I'm not going to open the BMI can of worms again, but there's a pretty clear physical difference between the likes of Sanders/MJD/Rice and Charles/CJ/Bush. Don't confuse short for small. They're not the same thing.

gheemony · Jan 4, 2010

dickey moe said:
Also interested in forecasts for Calvin Johnson in dynasty/keeper PPR leagues. FBGs still has him ranked very high, but considering his tendency for injury, a poor offense, and questionable (in my opinion) QB talent affecting his opportunity for getting the ball, I don't see him in the Top 5 right now, personally.

I'll raise my hand and admit that I have the same concern. In a true dynasty league, where I could keep Calvin forever, my concern is less because I think the situation will eventually come around. I have confidence in the Schwartz to build this team right: get good lineman, develop Stafford, etc. I think he knows what a stud Calvin is. I'm not ready to say he's injury-prone.But in my contract keeper league, where I can bid on Calvin this off-season and keep him for three seasons, I'm not sure I would bid as high I would for Fitz and others in that tier. The next two years may be WR2 type years, with a the third being the break-out. Paying #1-3 WR prices for WR2 production for two years can kill a team.

gheemony · Jan 4, 2010

Lott said:
SSOG said:

kremenull said:

No disrespect my man EBF, and I'm sure you are a consistent player with this mindset. But alternatively, this is also the type of thinking that could be the reason for a 3rd or 4th place finish as opposed to having a championship banner flying.

Click to expand...

The difference between 3rd/4th place and a championship banner is a couple of fluke performances in the playoffs. This year, a duo of Peterson and MJD would have gotten their asses kicked by a Charles/Harrison combo. Having the best team increases your odds, but not as much as everyone likes to pretend.The key to fantasy football isn't always having the best team, it's always having one of the 4-6 best teams. The goal is to consistently make the playoffs and then hope that your guys get hot at the right time (or else hope you get some favorable matchups). I'd rather be guaranteed the 4th best team than have a 50/50 shot of having the best team or the worst team.

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EXACTAMUNDO.I had a dominating season in one of my dynasty leagues, scoring 130 pts/week against a league average of 110 pts/wk. Through our 13 week regular season I would have beat the #6 scoring team, who was a little below our league average in scoring, 9 times, or 69% of the time. I was 42-23 against the #2 - #6 teams overall, a bit under 65%. Having to win in week 15 AND week 16 to be the champion, and using that 65% figure, my dominating season would yield a championship matchup 65% of the time and an actual championship only about 42% of the time. That is with a dominating team. If I don't get a week 14 bye, that becomes a championship matchup 42% of the time and a championship about 27% of the time.

A great team gets you to the playoffs, but there is considerable variance in H2H leagues. Heck, the #3 scoring team in this league barely squeaked into the playoffs via tiebreakers due to being 1-4 against the 3 lowest scoring teams in the league.

I had that team with AP/MJD and only got in the playoffs as a wild-card team. And I made it out of the first round only because Fitz put up a two point night that week (after my RMoss put up -1). The next week, I faced the #1 team that had been steam-rolling the league (11-1-1) with CJ3, Rice, Manning, Wayne, Celek, ... and he lost to my team, which went off. Sure enough, I got hot and won the championship the next week.Just get into the tournament each year, and then hope for the best.

Kitrick Taylor · Jan 5, 2010

Fear & Loathing said:
EBF said:

WR19 does seem a bit low for Holmes considering how high Miles Austin is ranked. I think they're pretty similar.

Moss, Wayne, and S. Smith are ranked pretty high for guys whose best football is behind them. They all have more short term upside than Holmes, but he has a lot more longevity potential.

I'm not feeling the Steve Smith love. He's a slightly better version of Santana Moss. Talented, but chronically disappointing for one reason or another. I don't think he belongs a tier ahead of Boldin and Chad. They're all capable of producing WR1 numbers when healthy, but they're all on the backslopes of their careers.

Pretty brutal downgrade for Eddie Royal. He had a pathetic year. No doubt about that, but I'm still a believer in his ability. I think he can be a Holmes/Coles/SMoss type. I would rank him at least 20 spots higher than WR53.

Click to expand...

I have Eddie Royal on my roster, and I wanted to deal him before the season. No such luck. Right now I couldn't get a gatorade flavor to be named later for him. He's an albatross.

Maybe a little bit of hope for Royal in 2010 after all. From McDaniels today:Again, we weren't working with the same philosophy I know they had worked with previously."

Can that change in Year 2?

"Absolutely," McDaniels said. "I'm disappointed that we couldn't do more in terms of using Eddie Royal, and I've been asked that question a bunch and I know Eddie's frustrated with it, too. So, I'm not happy with that and I don't want that to be the case. That's not stereotypical of Eddie this year, and we're going to work hard to fix that and get that to change dramatically going into next season."

SSOG · Jan 5, 2010

Everyone, raise your hands if you would have guessed that Jason Witten had over 1000 yards receiving this year. It's crazy to think that, for all the talk of how much of a disappointment he's been this year, he actually finished the season with 13 more catches for 80 more yards than he had last year (when he was TE2), and a mere 2 catches for 115 yards less than he had in his marvelous 2007 campaign. The real cause of his demise? Those 2 TDs he posted. Luckily for us, we all know that TDs are wildly unpredictable from year to year, so we can all swoop in and buy Witten from a disappointed owner for far less than he's really worth.

gheemony · Jan 5, 2010

SSOG said:
Everyone, raise your hands if you would have guessed that Jason Witten had over 1000 yards receiving this year. It's crazy to think that, for all the talk of how much of a disappointment he's been this year, he actually finished the season with 13 more catches for 80 more yards than he had last year (when he was TE2), and a mere 2 catches for 115 yards less than he had in his marvelous 2007 campaign. The real cause of his demise? Those 2 TDs he posted. Luckily for us, we all know that TDs are wildly unpredictable from year to year, so we can all swoop in and buy Witten from a disappointed owner for far less than he's really worth.

Shhhhhh... he's one of my top targets in the off-season and in draft next season. I was disappointed he hit 1,000 yards, because now every FF rag mag will point that out.

Rockchild · Jan 5, 2010

SSOG said:
Everyone, raise your hands if you would have guessed that Jason Witten had over 1000 yards receiving this year. It's crazy to think that, for all the talk of how much of a disappointment he's been this year, he actually finished the season with 13 more catches for 80 more yards than he had last year (when he was TE2), and a mere 2 catches for 115 yards less than he had in his marvelous 2007 campaign. The real cause of his demise? Those 2 TDs he posted. Luckily for us, we all know that TDs are wildly unpredictable from year to year, so we can all swoop in and buy Witten from a disappointed owner for far less than he's really worth.

My only difficult decision in my local 12 team keeper league is between Witten and Finley. No trading option and can only keep one or the other. Total rebuilding team and very enticed by Finley's upside/future but Witten is proven and still at the top of his game. I was leaning toward Finley a few weeks ago but then Witten seemed to dial it up. It almost seemed as if he had some kind of injury that was nagging him this year and he still had a good year yardage wise.

BeTheMatch · Jan 5, 2010

Rockchild said:
SSOG said:

Everyone, raise your hands if you would have guessed that Jason Witten had over 1000 yards receiving this year. It's crazy to think that, for all the talk of how much of a disappointment he's been this year, he actually finished the season with 13 more catches for 80 more yards than he had last year (when he was TE2), and a mere 2 catches for 115 yards less than he had in his marvelous 2007 campaign. The real cause of his demise? Those 2 TDs he posted. Luckily for us, we all know that TDs are wildly unpredictable from year to year, so we can all swoop in and buy Witten from a disappointed owner for far less than he's really worth.

Click to expand...

My only difficult decision in my local 12 team keeper league is between Witten and Finley. No trading option and can only keep one or the other. Total rebuilding team and very enticed by Finley's upside/future but Witten is proven and still at the top of his game. I was leaning toward Finley a few weeks ago but then Witten seemed to dial it up. It almost seemed as if he had some kind of injury that was nagging him this year and he still had a good year yardage wise.

I've got both Witten and Finley too in my contract dynasty league. Fortunately I'll be able to keep them both. I'm curious what people think about Witten moving forward. He'll be 28 at the start of the next season, but he just seems like an old 28 to me. He's always been kind of a lumberer. It seems like his body has taken a lot of punishment over the years with all the blocking he does. Plus, he's been in his share of big collisions over the middle. How long do people think Witten can play at this level? I personally think he might drop off faster than you might expect if you only looked at his age. That's why I'm very glad to be able to hang onto Finley too.

thevidon · Jan 5, 2010

SSOG said:
Sinrj said:

Well i'm not buying it. That would make him a first round pick in any startup dynasty draft. Would you seriously build your franchise around Jamal Charles?I would rather have Stewart, Jackson or Gore at this point. I could make a strong case for Williams too and Mendenhall is looking pretty good as well.

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It's been a while since Mendenhall has looked pretty good. Over the last half of the season, you could call his performance "serviceable" or "workmanlike" if you were in the mood to be generous.Mendenhall has topped 100 yards three times this season. The first time was his first game against San Diego, back when they had just lost Jamal Williams and their run defense was among the worst in the league. The second time was against Denver, whose run defense has been hemorrhaging for a while now. The third was against Oakland, where he managed 105 yards. In addition, he has a pair of 90 yard games, and 80 yard game... and seven games where he failed to reach 80 yards rushing since he became a starter. In the last 8 games, he's averaged 17.8/66.9/0.375 (3.77 ypc) rushing. As of right now, to me Mendenhall looks more like Forte/Lynch/Moreno/Smith and less like Stewart/Jackson/Gore/Williams.

EBF said:

I think Charles is far too speculative to warrant a top 10 pick. He has the potential to eventually justify that kind of ranking, but most of his production has come in the last four games. That's not a big enough sample size to draw strong enough conclusions to rank him as one of the best players in all of FF.

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That's the key for me- managing risk. "Avoid the Noid", so to speak. When I use my first round pick, I want to snag a guy who I am reasonably certain I will still be starting 4 years from now. I like Charles' upside a lot, but there are at least 12 guys who I am more certain will still be starting in 4 years.

Im a big fan of Mendenhall, and I've noticed a change in his running style this year. In college he was big on spin moves and juking behind the line, but now he hardly ever uses these tools. What I see now is that he looks for a hole and then hits it - in the open field he looks at the tackler coming his way and then selects the angle he can take to pick up the most yardage before he gets hit and then picks it up in a straight line. He doesn't seek out the big play, but always looks to safely maximize his runs. (Anyone have his stats on number of negative yardage carries?) I think the Steelers coaching staff has coached him to this point due to his early fumbling issues and the fact that many RB's dance at the line far too much in the NFL. At any rate I think his production has been pretty good so far and once he remembers that he has juking ability his big games will pick up.

Kitrick Taylor · Jan 5, 2010

BeTheMatch said:
Rockchild said:

SSOG said:

Everyone, raise your hands if you would have guessed that Jason Witten had over 1000 yards receiving this year. It's crazy to think that, for all the talk of how much of a disappointment he's been this year, he actually finished the season with 13 more catches for 80 more yards than he had last year (when he was TE2), and a mere 2 catches for 115 yards less than he had in his marvelous 2007 campaign. The real cause of his demise? Those 2 TDs he posted. Luckily for us, we all know that TDs are wildly unpredictable from year to year, so we can all swoop in and buy Witten from a disappointed owner for far less than he's really worth.

Click to expand...

My only difficult decision in my local 12 team keeper league is between Witten and Finley. No trading option and can only keep one or the other. Total rebuilding team and very enticed by Finley's upside/future but Witten is proven and still at the top of his game. I was leaning toward Finley a few weeks ago but then Witten seemed to dial it up. It almost seemed as if he had some kind of injury that was nagging him this year and he still had a good year yardage wise.

Click to expand...

I've got both Witten and Finley too in my contract dynasty league. Fortunately I'll be able to keep them both. I'm curious what people think about Witten moving forward. He'll be 28 at the start of the next season, but he just seems like an old 28 to me. He's always been kind of a lumberer. It seems like his body has taken a lot of punishment over the years with all the blocking he does. Plus, he's been in his share of big collisions over the middle. How long do people think Witten can play at this level? I personally think he might drop off faster than you might expect if you only looked at his age. That's why I'm very glad to be able to hang onto Finley too.

Since Finley came back from his injury in week 11, he's been the 4th best TE in the league. Behind Gates, VD and Dallas Clark. Pretty good company. He's averaged over 7 targets/game during that stretch and scored 4 TDs in the 7 games. More importantly than his production over those 7 weeks is the fact that he is the Packers #1 red zone threat. His height and athleticism make him extremely difficult to cover. He's also shown excellent hands consistently snatching the ball out of the air over defenders. This was his first year getting significant playing time, and he's still a work in progress. As an example, he caught a second TD this past week, but he ran his route a step or two too deep and ended up with his feet out of bounds. Obviously something that he can correct going forward. As for Witten, while I do agree that TDs are wildly unpredictable, there is also a trend developing with him. He's scored 2, 4, 7 and 1 TDs in each of the past 4 years. So in his last 64 games he's scored 14 TDs. An average of 3.5/year over the last 4 years. I'm ready to say he's just not a great red zone threat. He's scored single digit fantasy points in 46 of those 64 games. So 72% of the time you are getting between 0 and 9 points out of him. Compare that to Gates, whose scored 34 TDs in the same 64 game stretch. You only get single digits 47% of the time with Gates. Huge difference IMO.

lyon812 · Jan 5, 2010

thevidon said:
Im a big fan of Mendenhall, and I've noticed a change in his running style this year. In college he was big on spin moves and juking behind the line, but now he hardly ever uses these tools.

Really?This year, my wife and I invented our own personal "Mendenhall spin move drinking game", because he uses it so damn much. It's hard to believe he's using it LESS now, considering we often have to cry out "spin move" multiple carries in a row. I admit I only saw 8-9 of the Steelers games this year, but still..I'm a Mendenhall owner who seems to have the complete opposite experience of you. This might be the case where both of us are seeing what we expect to see. Too bad they don't have "useless spin move" as a stat.

shader · Jan 5, 2010

Fear & Loathing said:
Final regular season standings for the inaugural season of the FB Guys Dynasty Playoff League:

PLAYOFFS

1. Fear & Loathing: 12-5, 2319.70 points (Thank you, Jabar Gaffney)

2. ChuckLiddell: 12-5, 2315.72 points

3. FUBAR: 12-5, 2180.62 points

4. Twinkilling.com: 9-8, 1980.68

5. Gorf: 9-8, 1962.58

6. Neo: 8-9, 2112.36

WAIT TIL NEXT YEAR

7. mcintyre1: 8-9, 2055.58

8. Shader: 7-10, 2120.24

9. benm3218: 7-10, 2016.24

10. Frank Costanza's Lawyer: 7-10, 1900.06

11. kremenull: 6-11, 1945.48

12. Magnus_CA: 5-12, 1932.44

Congrats to the six that made it, condolences to Shader, mcintyre1, and benm3218 who deserved a better fate.

Heavy trading season opens tomorrow.

Guys Fear & Loathing is the real deal. Finished first in standings and in my opinion is the favorite to win the playoffs.That being said, it sucks being 4th in points and missing the playoffs. But honestly it wouldn't have made a difference as I don't think I could win the super bowl with this roster!

Fear & Loathing · Jan 5, 2010

lyon812 said:
thevidon said:

Im a big fan of Mendenhall, and I've noticed a change in his running style this year. In college he was big on spin moves and juking behind the line, but now he hardly ever uses these tools.

Click to expand...

Really?This year, my wife and I invented our own personal "Mendenhall spin move drinking game", because he uses it so damn much. It's hard to believe he's using it LESS now, considering we often have to cry out "spin move" multiple carries in a row. I admit I only saw 8-9 of the Steelers games this year, but still..I'm a Mendenhall owner who seems to have the complete opposite experience of you. This might be the case where both of us are seeing what we expect to see. Too bad they don't have "useless spin move" as a stat.

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