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Dynasty Rankings (5 Viewers)

Woke up to this offer in my inbox Friday morning:

His Darren McFadden and 4th round pick for my late first-round pick.

I'm not a big McFadden believer, but with Westbrook as my third RB I figured it was worth rolling the dice. It's a keep-11 league, so there are still quality players available in the fourth round. In fact, outside of last year's draft, you could easily stumble upon just as good of a player in the fourth as you could late in the first. It's obviously not the same in a full-blown Dynasty league, but I probably would have pulled the trigger anyway considering what's likely to be available with the No. 10-12 picks in the first.

 
FUBAR said:
corpcow said:
FUBAR said:
SSOG said:
corpcow said:
As for a trade like Moreno for Charles straight up - I never understood why someone would think about a trade like that. If you offer me one person of relatively similar makeup (young, upside, etc) at the same position as a swap - and unless you own the other RB in the RBBC or something - you simply have to question the values there. Even if I think your guy is better, I should realize that you clearly value my player more and thus I'll hold out until I get a better price. :mellow:
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You could try to hold out for a better price. I'd reply with "guess I'm going into next season with Moreno, then" and shut down discussions. I generally don't lowball, so my first offer is generally my biggest offer. I'd be happy to change pieces around (i.e. give you a package of players I value identically to Moreno instead of Moreno himself), or I might throw in a late pick or something to "grease the wheels" or allow you to save face in the transaction log or whatever, but I think it's important to make it known from the beginning that you aren't wishy-washy, you don't lock in on players (which is why I was opposed to the Ricky-for-Greene swap, since it was a CLEAR case of overwhelming tunnel vision for a single player). If someone holds out for a better price and you acquiesce, all you're doing is saying that people can milk you whenever they feel like it.It should be clear that I'm making the offer because I like Charles more than Moreno and not for any ancillary concerns. If the other guy likes Moreno better than Charles, then the deal gets done. If he doesn't, it doesn't. No real sweat either way.
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:) While I'm usually reluctant to do "young RB" for "young RB" or "old QB" for "old QB", etc. trades, there's no reason not to if you feel you're getting the better player.
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Oh, sure... I'm not saying you shouldn't take the deal if you like the guy being offered better. I just mean it's not something you can "sell"... it's tough to tell me I'm getting the better end of the deal when there's no position/age/salary/etc situation involved. If you're offering me a young WR for a young WR and both are generally in the same range, you can't turn around and tell me I should accept because I'm getting the better player.E.g., in one league I had an owner offer me Cotchery for Holmes no less than 5 times. I told him upfront that I liked Holmes better, and yet he kept trying to do essentially the same deal but telling me that Cotchery was better/was going to be better with Sanchez/etc etc... clearly if you really believed that, you wouldn't be offering me the deal :)

Of course.. I've seen offers like this that make sense when there's a salary cap involved. E.g., you may regard Moreno higher, but Charles has a cheaper contract, so you'll take Charles for Moreno (I'm using this as an example, I understand that you/others/etc have Charles as the higher rank right now).
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I don't, but others do. Depends on the owners of course but I for one absolutely hate when the offering party tries to sell a deal to me. I don't need him to explain why his player is better or to tell me I'm getting younger, I either know this or disagree. I can see an email explaining why the deal was offered if I reject it, but I'm that guy who rejects a trade because he's getting sold to, even if sometimes I may have taken it if it was just offered. Go ahead and offer me Greg Jennings for Brandon Marshall, just don't try to sell me on it.
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Maybe it's just me, but I don't think people do this to be jerks or anything else but so there is discourse and as a means for a starting point in discussions if the offer isn't accepted. For example, if I offer you Greg Jennings for Brandon Marshall, I might state that while I figure Marshall is more talented, I like Jennings situation better. I might do this because I know you're a "roll the dice" gambling type of player and that is why I feel this could apply to you. It's not out of a sense of I'm trying to be a used-car salesman.If people didn't ever want to "converse" in any deals, they'd just join Yahoo leagues and blindly send out trade offers all the time.

 
I'm in a PPR Dynasty League and have the following roster:

Orton, Gradowski

Charles, S. Greene, Bradshaw, M. Bush, L. Maroney

S. Smith(Car), S. Rice, D. Aromashadu, P. Garcon, E. Royal, E. Doucet, D. Butler

Whitten, S. Nelson

I have enough league currency to purchase Ray Rice or Chris Johnson in upcoming FA Auction. I also have picks 1.4 and 1.7 in Rookie draft

As you can see my QB's are horrible.

I can get Cutler and Knowshon for P. Garcon, Orton, Maroney, 2 -3rd round rookie picks, and half of my league currency.

If I did this, it would guarantee I do not land a top notch RB to go with Charles, etc. If I do not, I will almost certainly have to go in with Orton and Gradowski as my starters. This is a year two Dynasty and the owners of QB's are holding on to QB's like gold. I sold Eli Manning to get into position to grab the best RB in the offseason, now I'm wavering.

What shoud I do? Is there another course of action I am not seeing?

 
footballsavvy said:
What shoud I do? Is there another course of action I am not seeing?
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Yes, draft one with the #7 pick.Giving up the opportunity to get a top 4 RB like Rice and Johnson to get avg QB's and RB's like Cutler and Knowshon is not how you win titles.Take Dez Bryant or the best available RB at pick 4 and the best available QB at pick 6, it will either be the 1st or 2nd QB so you'll have your pick.If this is a start 2 WR league you could probably test the waters with Sidney Rice too, he should fetch you a solid QB. If it's start 3 I'd stay put for now.Me, personally, I'd trade Charles but I know I'm the minority there. I think it's more likely what we saw in the 2nd half this year was a fluke than the beginning of a trend and that his peak value is right now.
 
Spike said:
Maybe it's just me, but I don't think people do this to be jerks or anything else but so there is discourse and as a means for a starting point in discussions if the offer isn't accepted. For example, if I offer you Greg Jennings for Brandon Marshall, I might state that while I figure Marshall is more talented, I like Jennings situation better. I might do this because I know you're a "roll the dice" gambling type of player and that is why I feel this could apply to you. It's not out of a sense of I'm trying to be a used-car salesman.

If people didn't ever want to "converse" in any deals, they'd just join Yahoo leagues and blindly send out trade offers all the time.
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Oh, believe me, I'm 100% behind the discourse. "Here's where I'm coming from with this: Warner is a top QB, but he's old and only has a year or two left. Meanwhile, you're rebuilding and I have a lot of young RB depth... so even though DOnald Brown didn't do much this year, I think he's a good young back you can build on. Blah blah blah".My point is, what's the justification/sales pitch when you offer Moreno for Charles? "Moreno is a great young back and he showed a lot and he can be a workhorse and ..." Uhm, ok, then why are you trying to get rid of him for another young, relatively unproven back in the same situation and the same years left etc etc.

 
corpcow said:
Spike said:
Maybe it's just me, but I don't think people do this to be jerks or anything else but so there is discourse and as a means for a starting point in discussions if the offer isn't accepted. For example, if I offer you Greg Jennings for Brandon Marshall, I might state that while I figure Marshall is more talented, I like Jennings situation better. I might do this because I know you're a "roll the dice" gambling type of player and that is why I feel this could apply to you. It's not out of a sense of I'm trying to be a used-car salesman.

If people didn't ever want to "converse" in any deals, they'd just join Yahoo leagues and blindly send out trade offers all the time.
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Oh, believe me, I'm 100% behind the discourse. "Here's where I'm coming from with this: Warner is a top QB, but he's old and only has a year or two left. Meanwhile, you're rebuilding and I have a lot of young RB depth... so even though DOnald Brown didn't do much this year, I think he's a good young back you can build on. Blah blah blah".My point is, what's the justification/sales pitch when you offer Moreno for Charles? "Moreno is a great young back and he showed a lot and he can be a workhorse and ..." Uhm, ok, then why are you trying to get rid of him for another young, relatively unproven back in the same situation and the same years left etc etc.
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:goodposting: Because Moreno is probably a "safer" bet. Charles might have more upside, but his floor is also much lower - like if KC drafts or trades for a more protypical 1st & 2nd down back and Charles goes back to being a 3rd down back.Some people simply value players differently - I once offered a trade to someone based on what I thought they needed/wanted (which is always a good strategy). They came back with "No, but I'd rather have player X" - IMHO, Player X was much less valuable (in this case I was offereing Shonne Green - they were more interested in making sure Leon Washington was in the deal).

In the example involving Charles and Moreno, if you need a steady RB2, you might prefer Moreno. If you'd rather take a gamble, Charles might be more to your liking. The idea that the other owner is trying to "sell you" something may just be a case of he prefers Charles - but doesn't realize that you do too. If you do, just say no thanks - but don't necessarily assume he is trying to screw you - he may just think you value Moreno's "depandability" over Charles speculative value.

 
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Spike said:
FUBAR said:
Depends on the owners of course but I for one absolutely hate when the offering party tries to sell a deal to me. I don't need him to explain why his player is better or to tell me I'm getting younger, I either know this or disagree. I can see an email explaining why the deal was offered if I reject it, but I'm that guy who rejects a trade because he's getting sold to, even if sometimes I may have taken it if it was just offered. Go ahead and offer me Greg Jennings for Brandon Marshall, just don't try to sell me on it.
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Maybe it's just me, but I don't think people do this to be jerks or anything else but so there is discourse and as a means for a starting point in discussions if the offer isn't accepted. For example, if I offer you Greg Jennings for Brandon Marshall, I might state that while I figure Marshall is more talented, I like Jennings situation better. I might do this because I know you're a "roll the dice" gambling type of player and that is why I feel this could apply to you. It's not out of a sense of I'm trying to be a used-car salesman.If people didn't ever want to "converse" in any deals, they'd just join Yahoo leagues and blindly send out trade offers all the time.
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I'll converse and enjoy doing so, just do it before the offer or if you want to include comments in the offer, just tell me why YOU want to make the deal and think it's fair. The phrase I quoted was
I just mean it's not something you can "sell"... it's tough to tell me I'm getting the better end of the deal when there's no position/age/salary/etc situation involved. If you're offering me a young WR for a young WR and both are generally in the same range, you can't turn around and tell me I should accept because I'm getting the better player.
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to me that indicates a sales-pitch.
 
Post knee injury, where does Wes Welker fall to in the rankings?

I'm guessing he falls out of tier 3, but it seems like falling past tier 4 might be too far. I'd probably prefer him to Braylon Edwards, but probably not to Steve Smith.

 
corpcow said:
Spike said:
Maybe it's just me, but I don't think people do this to be jerks or anything else but so there is discourse and as a means for a starting point in discussions if the offer isn't accepted. For example, if I offer you Greg Jennings for Brandon Marshall, I might state that while I figure Marshall is more talented, I like Jennings situation better. I might do this because I know you're a "roll the dice" gambling type of player and that is why I feel this could apply to you. It's not out of a sense of I'm trying to be a used-car salesman.

If people didn't ever want to "converse" in any deals, they'd just join Yahoo leagues and blindly send out trade offers all the time.
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Oh, believe me, I'm 100% behind the discourse. "Here's where I'm coming from with this: Warner is a top QB, but he's old and only has a year or two left. Meanwhile, you're rebuilding and I have a lot of young RB depth... so even though DOnald Brown didn't do much this year, I think he's a good young back you can build on. Blah blah blah".My point is, what's the justification/sales pitch when you offer Moreno for Charles? "Moreno is a great young back and he showed a lot and he can be a workhorse and ..." Uhm, ok, then why are you trying to get rid of him for another young, relatively unproven back in the same situation and the same years left etc etc.
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just a style, but if I had Charles and wanted to trade him for Moreno, I'd either email the owner stating I like Charles but I like Moreno a little more and see if he likes Charles. I've dealt fairly equal QBs before simply stating that I happened to like Ben better than Eli Manning - the other team preferred Eli, so it was an easy deal to make.
 
FUBAR said:
corpcow said:
Spike said:
Maybe it's just me, but I don't think people do this to be jerks or anything else but so there is discourse and as a means for a starting point in discussions if the offer isn't accepted. For example, if I offer you Greg Jennings for Brandon Marshall, I might state that while I figure Marshall is more talented, I like Jennings situation better. I might do this because I know you're a "roll the dice" gambling type of player and that is why I feel this could apply to you. It's not out of a sense of I'm trying to be a used-car salesman.

If people didn't ever want to "converse" in any deals, they'd just join Yahoo leagues and blindly send out trade offers all the time.
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Oh, believe me, I'm 100% behind the discourse. "Here's where I'm coming from with this: Warner is a top QB, but he's old and only has a year or two left. Meanwhile, you're rebuilding and I have a lot of young RB depth... so even though DOnald Brown didn't do much this year, I think he's a good young back you can build on. Blah blah blah".My point is, what's the justification/sales pitch when you offer Moreno for Charles? "Moreno is a great young back and he showed a lot and he can be a workhorse and ..." Uhm, ok, then why are you trying to get rid of him for another young, relatively unproven back in the same situation and the same years left etc etc.
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just a style, but if I had Charles and wanted to trade him for Moreno, I'd either email the owner stating I like Charles but I like Moreno a little more and see if he likes Charles. I've dealt fairly equal QBs before simply stating that I happened to like Ben better than Eli Manning - the other team preferred Eli, so it was an easy deal to make.
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Bingo.That was the point I was trying to make a few posts up. Sometimes your prefer player X over Y - if the other team prefers Y over X, the deal is done as soon as you ask...but the only way to know is to ask.

 
travdogg said:
Post knee injury, where does Wes Welker fall to in the rankings? I'm guessing he falls out of tier 3, but it seems like falling past tier 4 might be too far. I'd probably prefer him to Braylon Edwards, but probably not to Steve Smith.
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I think comparing him to Braylon Edwards is a fair comparison, damaged goods but for different reasons.That said, neither of those two belong in the same sentence as Steve Smith. I'll admit when I'm wrong about a guy and I was dead wrong about Smith.If I were to lump some other names in with Welker and Edwards they'd be Lee Evans, TO, Chris Chambers, Santana Moss, Roy Williams, and Housh. A bunch of guys with some name value, most of it with negative correlations but name value nonetheless, that I wouldn't ever feel comfortable starting. I'd prefer promising young guys like Wallace, Jacoby Jones, James Jones, Harry Douglas, among others and old guys that won't die like Driver and Mason to any of them. Welker's at the top of that grouping I mentioned because if he did come back I'd feel comfortable starting him, but I don't feel comfortable that he'll ever be back close to where he was, at least for an extended period of time anyway.I love everything about Welker, but his game is reading defenses and making quick cuts. He won't lose the ability to read defenses, but his ability to cut is highly in question. He's still got a lot of value in many people's eyes, I'd either sell right now or right before he comes back. He's got the mentality of a warrior, but his body can't withstand the pounding his game demands. I'm glad I was proactive in hedging my bets, trading him in one league when I first learned of the balky knee in September. I'm also glad I was able to get a pretty good return in my other league last week, selling him, Justin Durant, the 1.10 and 3.10 this year, and a 3rd next year for a 1.3 this year and another 1st next year. I just don't think the risk is worth it.
 
MAC_32 said:
travdogg said:
Post knee injury, where does Wes Welker fall to in the rankings? I'm guessing he falls out of tier 3, but it seems like falling past tier 4 might be too far. I'd probably prefer him to Braylon Edwards, but probably not to Steve Smith.
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I think comparing him to Braylon Edwards is a fair comparison, damaged goods but for different reasons.That said, neither of those two belong in the same sentence as Steve Smith. I'll admit when I'm wrong about a guy and I was dead wrong about Smith.If I were to lump some other names in with Welker and Edwards they'd be Lee Evans, TO, Chris Chambers, Santana Moss, Roy Williams, and Housh. A bunch of guys with some name value, most of it with negative correlations but name value nonetheless, that I wouldn't ever feel comfortable starting. I'd prefer promising young guys like Wallace, Jacoby Jones, James Jones, Harry Douglas, among others and old guys that won't die like Driver and Mason to any of them. Welker's at the top of that grouping I mentioned because if he did come back I'd feel comfortable starting him, but I don't feel comfortable that he'll ever be back close to where he was, at least for an extended period of time anyway.I love everything about Welker, but his game is reading defenses and making quick cuts. He won't lose the ability to read defenses, but his ability to cut is highly in question. He's still got a lot of value in many people's eyes, I'd either sell right now or right before he comes back. He's got the mentality of a warrior, but his body can't withstand the pounding his game demands. I'm glad I was proactive in hedging my bets, trading him in one league when I first learned of the balky knee in September. I'm also glad I was able to get a pretty good return in my other league last week, selling him, Justin Durant, the 1.10 and 3.10 this year, and a 3rd next year for a 1.3 this year and another 1st next year. I just don't think the risk is worth it.
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:boxing: I'm working on some rankings right now for an upcoming Rotoworld article. Here are the top four tiers of receivers. Miles Austin continues to climb:<b>Tier One</b>1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 1002. Andre Johnson, Texans | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 1003. Calvin Johnson, Lions | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 99<b>Tier Two</b>4. Vincent Jackson, Chargers | Age: 27.8 | Value Score: 955. Reggie Wayne, Colts | Age: 31.10 | Value Score: 956. Miles Austin, Cowboys | Age: 26.2 | Value Score: 947. DeSean Jackson, Eagles | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 948. Roddy White, Falcons | Age: 28.10 | Value Score: 939. Randy Moss, Patriots | Age: 33.7 | Value Score: 92<b>Tier Three</b>10. Marques Colston, Saints | Age: 27.3 | Value Score: 8711. Sidney Rice, Vikings | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 8712. Steve Smith, Panthers | Age: 31.4 | Value Score: 8613. Greg Jennings, Packers | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 8614. Percy Harvin, Vikings | Age: 22.3 | Value Score: 8515. Michael Crabtree, 49ers | Age: 23.0 | Value Score: 8416. Santonio Holmes, Steelers | Age: 26.6 | Value Score: 8417. Hakeem Nicks, Giants | Age: 22.8 | Value Score: 8318. Brandon Marshall, Broncos | Age: 26.6 | Value Score: 8219. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 82<b>Tier Four</b>20. Steve Smith, Giants | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 7521. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals | Age: 29.11 | Value Score: 7422. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals | Age: 32.8 | Value Score: 7423. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 7224. Kenny Britt, Titans | Age: 22.0 | Value Score: 7225. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars | Age: 25.10 | Value Score: 7026. Robert Meachem, Saints | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 6827. Braylon Edwards, Jets | Age: 27.7 | Value Score: 6728. Wes Welker, Patriots | Age: 29.4 | Value Score: 67
 
Spike said:
FUBAR said:
corpcow said:
FUBAR said:
:shrug: While I'm usually reluctant to do "young RB" for "young RB" or "old QB" for "old QB", etc. trades, there's no reason not to if you feel you're getting the better player.
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Oh, sure... I'm not saying you shouldn't take the deal if you like the guy being offered better. I just mean it's not something you can "sell"... it's tough to tell me I'm getting the better end of the deal when there's no position/age/salary/etc situation involved. If you're offering me a young WR for a young WR and both are generally in the same range, you can't turn around and tell me I should accept because I'm getting the better player.E.g., in one league I had an owner offer me Cotchery for Holmes no less than 5 times. I told him upfront that I liked Holmes better, and yet he kept trying to do essentially the same deal but telling me that Cotchery was better/was going to be better with Sanchez/etc etc... clearly if you really believed that, you wouldn't be offering me the deal :thumbdown:

Of course.. I've seen offers like this that make sense when there's a salary cap involved. E.g., you may regard Moreno higher, but Charles has a cheaper contract, so you'll take Charles for Moreno (I'm using this as an example, I understand that you/others/etc have Charles as the higher rank right now).
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I don't, but others do. Depends on the owners of course but I for one absolutely hate when the offering party tries to sell a deal to me. I don't need him to explain why his player is better or to tell me I'm getting younger, I either know this or disagree. I can see an email explaining why the deal was offered if I reject it, but I'm that guy who rejects a trade because he's getting sold to, even if sometimes I may have taken it if it was just offered. Go ahead and offer me Greg Jennings for Brandon Marshall, just don't try to sell me on it.
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Maybe it's just me, but I don't think people do this to be jerks or anything else but so there is discourse and as a means for a starting point in discussions if the offer isn't accepted. For example, if I offer you Greg Jennings for Brandon Marshall, I might state that while I figure Marshall is more talented, I like Jennings situation better. I might do this because I know you're a "roll the dice" gambling type of player and that is why I feel this could apply to you. It's not out of a sense of I'm trying to be a used-car salesman.If people didn't ever want to "converse" in any deals, they'd just join Yahoo leagues and blindly send out trade offers all the time.
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I'm in this same boat. I prefer to explain my side and my interpretation of their side and why I think they would/might accept (e.g. what we're each getting out of it). That way if they're not interested (especially if they're not interested enough to counter) the other owner usually explains where his thoughts differ from mine. Helps me get a sense of consensus player valuations and be better at not overvaluing my own players as much IMO.When I receive an offer with a pitch/explanation I take it with a grain of salt, but I've always considered receiving any extra information about players or owners to be a good thing. Even if the pitch is clearly misdirection and tells you nothing about the valuation of the individual players involved, it at least tells you something about the other owner. You also may learn what a lot about their tendencies (to favor talent vs. situation, to favor WRs over RBs or vice versa, or how much they discount players based on knucklehead factor)

 
Fear & Loathing said:
Woke up to this offer in my inbox Friday morning:His Darren McFadden and 4th round pick for my late first-round pick.I'm not a big McFadden believer, but with Westbrook as my third RB I figured it was worth rolling the dice. It's a keep-11 league, so there are still quality players available in the fourth round. In fact, outside of last year's draft, you could easily stumble upon just as good of a player in the fourth as you could late in the first. It's obviously not the same in a full-blown Dynasty league, but I probably would have pulled the trigger anyway considering what's likely to be available with the No. 10-12 picks in the first.
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That's what I'm talking about with McFadden. It's not like I'm a believer or I think he's going to become a stud. It's that his price has fallen WAY below where it should be. Regardless of how you feel about him, he's a 22-year old RB who was the #4 overall selection (and not a Heyward-Bey, only a top-10 selection because Davis is a moron type pick- he was a legitimate top 10 draft pick). For his career, he has fewer carries than Knowshon Moreno, and he has averaged more yards per carry than Knowshon Moreno, to boot (despite playing in a dramatically worse offense). It's very likely that McFadden's going to be a major fantasy dud for the rest of his career... but his price right now is a broken shoelace and a stick of already chewed gum. His price is way lower than it should be. The #12 pick in my rookie draft last year was Glen Coffee. Is there ANYONE that would rather have Glenn Coffee than Darren McFadden?
 
In theory McFadden is a good gamble. I'm a big fan of acquiring young players with elite pedigrees whose value has been suppressed by a lack of quality opportunities. We've seen players like Larry Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, Thomas Jones, and Cedric Benson come back from the dead after being written off as busts prematurely.

At the same time, I've learned my lesson from the failure of guys like Chris Perry. I touted him as a potential buy low simply because he was a first round RB with a low price tag. But you know what? I never actually thought he was a very good prospect. He was a huge reach in the draft and he never showed much on the field. I only touted him because on paper he looked like someone worth touting. That sounds a lot like McFadden to me.

I have zero faith in McFadden's talent. I've seen him play numerous times and never come away impressed. The Raiders have an acute need for playmakers on offense and yet McFadden has been unable to decisively beat out Fargas and Bush. There's really nothing encouraging about him aside from the fact that he was a high pick (by a team known for making idiotic draft decisions).

He's not worthless, but he's not worth much. I wouldn't give up any kind of first round rookie pick for him and I probably wouldn't trade a second round rookie pick if there were good prospects on the board.

 
I think McFadden is a great guy to gamble on. The Raiders are a black hole (excuse the pun) for offensive players, and I still think Mcfadden has solid talent.

I can't admit to spending alot of my time watching Raider games the last 2 years, so I'm not a big authority on his career in the NFL.

But I loved the guy coming out of college, so you never know..

 
EBF said:
In theory McFadden is a good gamble. I'm a big fan of acquiring young players with elite pedigrees whose value has been suppressed by a lack of quality opportunities. We've seen players like Larry Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, Thomas Jones, and Cedric Benson come back from the dead after being written off as busts prematurely. At the same time, I've learned my lesson from the failure of guys like Chris Perry. I touted him as a potential buy low simply because he was a first round RB with a low price tag. But you know what? I never actually thought he was a very good prospect. He was a huge reach in the draft and he never showed much on the field. I only touted him because on paper he looked like someone worth touting. That sounds a lot like McFadden to me. I have zero faith in McFadden's talent. I've seen him play numerous times and never come away impressed. The Raiders have an acute need for playmakers on offense and yet McFadden has been unable to decisively beat out Fargas and Bush. There's really nothing encouraging about him aside from the fact that he was a high pick (by a team known for making idiotic draft decisions).He's not worthless, but he's not worth much. I wouldn't give up any kind of first round rookie pick for him and I probably wouldn't trade a second round rookie pick if there were good prospects on the board.
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Chris Perry's a bad comp. Dude had like 18 injuries before he washed out of the league. Had he stayed healthy, he very well might have wound up being the type of guy that was worth touting. Kevin Jones is another example- I bought low (I mean really, really low) on Kevin Jones a couple of years ago because he had pedigree and was still unknown, despite the fact that I wasn't the biggest Kevin Jones fan around. It didn't work out, but the reason it didn't work out was injury, plain and simple. That doesn't discourage me from making those types of moves again, because I can't reliably predict injury.
 
I've been trying to gauge Early Doucet's value and have been having a hard time. With Boldin probably leaving (and maybe breaston too I think I read on here somewhere) it should increase, but reports of warner retiring worry me...any thoughts?

 
EthnicFury said:
I've been trying to gauge Early Doucet's value and have been having a hard time. With Boldin probably leaving (and maybe breaston too I think I read on here somewhere) it should increase, but reports of warner retiring worry me...any thoughts?
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I saw him drop several passes and just wasn't impressed. Breaston now... He impressed. Doucet looks like a role player.
 
shader said:
I think McFadden is a great guy to gamble on. The Raiders are a black hole (excuse the pun) for offensive players, and I still think Mcfadden has solid talent.I can't admit to spending alot of my time watching Raider games the last 2 years, so I'm not a big authority on his career in the NFL.But I loved the guy coming out of college, so you never know..
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I live in the Raider viewing area (alas) and I have been subjected to far more Raider games than is healthy to see. McFadden does have talent but I am not convinced that he can be an everydown back. He can't make people miss and he doesn't run with alot of power. His speed is good but it isn't all worldly either like Chris Johnson's. The only way I could see him becoming a top 10 back is if the team ran the Wildcat and used him in the Ronnie Brown role. Or, if they used him more like NO used Reggie Bush he would be a top 15 back in PPR leagues. But then he has to stay healthy, and he hasn't shown an ability to stay healthy consistently in his first two years.
 
SSOG said:
EBF said:
In theory McFadden is a good gamble. I'm a big fan of acquiring young players with elite pedigrees whose value has been suppressed by a lack of quality opportunities. We've seen players like Larry Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, Thomas Jones, and Cedric Benson come back from the dead after being written off as busts prematurely. At the same time, I've learned my lesson from the failure of guys like Chris Perry. I touted him as a potential buy low simply because he was a first round RB with a low price tag. But you know what? I never actually thought he was a very good prospect. He was a huge reach in the draft and he never showed much on the field. I only touted him because on paper he looked like someone worth touting. That sounds a lot like McFadden to me. I have zero faith in McFadden's talent. I've seen him play numerous times and never come away impressed. The Raiders have an acute need for playmakers on offense and yet McFadden has been unable to decisively beat out Fargas and Bush. There's really nothing encouraging about him aside from the fact that he was a high pick (by a team known for making idiotic draft decisions).He's not worthless, but he's not worth much. I wouldn't give up any kind of first round rookie pick for him and I probably wouldn't trade a second round rookie pick if there were good prospects on the board.
Click to expand...
Chris Perry's a bad comp. Dude had like 18 injuries before he washed out of the league. Had he stayed healthy, he very well might have wound up being the type of guy that was worth touting. Kevin Jones is another example- I bought low (I mean really, really low) on Kevin Jones a couple of years ago because he had pedigree and was still unknown, despite the fact that I wasn't the biggest Kevin Jones fan around. It didn't work out, but the reason it didn't work out was injury, plain and simple. That doesn't discourage me from making those types of moves again, because I can't reliably predict injury.
Click to expand...
McFadden could very well be on his way to having an extensive injury history. He hasn't been that healthy missing 7 games in his short career.
 
Fear & Loathing said:
MAC_32 said:
travdogg said:
Post knee injury, where does Wes Welker fall to in the rankings?

I'm guessing he falls out of tier 3, but it seems like falling past tier 4 might be too far. I'd probably prefer him to Braylon Edwards, but probably not to Steve Smith.
Click to expand...
I think comparing him to Braylon Edwards is a fair comparison, damaged goods but for different reasons.That said, neither of those two belong in the same sentence as Steve Smith. I'll admit when I'm wrong about a guy and I was dead wrong about Smith.

If I were to lump some other names in with Welker and Edwards they'd be Lee Evans, TO, Chris Chambers, Santana Moss, Roy Williams, and Housh. A bunch of guys with some name value, most of it with negative correlations but name value nonetheless, that I wouldn't ever feel comfortable starting. I'd prefer promising young guys like Wallace, Jacoby Jones, James Jones, Harry Douglas, among others and old guys that won't die like Driver and Mason to any of them. Welker's at the top of that grouping I mentioned because if he did come back I'd feel comfortable starting him, but I don't feel comfortable that he'll ever be back close to where he was, at least for an extended period of time anyway.

I love everything about Welker, but his game is reading defenses and making quick cuts. He won't lose the ability to read defenses, but his ability to cut is highly in question. He's still got a lot of value in many people's eyes, I'd either sell right now or right before he comes back. He's got the mentality of a warrior, but his body can't withstand the pounding his game demands. I'm glad I was proactive in hedging my bets, trading him in one league when I first learned of the balky knee in September. I'm also glad I was able to get a pretty good return in my other league last week, selling him, Justin Durant, the 1.10 and 3.10 this year, and a 3rd next year for a 1.3 this year and another 1st next year. I just don't think the risk is worth it.
Click to expand...
:popcorn: I'm working on some rankings right now for an upcoming Rotoworld article. Here are the top four tiers of receivers. Miles Austin continues to climb:

<b>Tier One</b>

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 100

2. Andre Johnson, Texans | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 100

3. Calvin Johnson, Lions | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 99
Click to expand...
Still don't understand this.
 
az_prof said:
EthnicFury said:
I've been trying to gauge Early Doucet's value and have been having a hard time. With Boldin probably leaving (and maybe breaston too I think I read on here somewhere) it should increase, but reports of warner retiring worry me...any thoughts?
Click to expand...
I saw him drop several passes and just wasn't impressed. Breaston now... He impressed. Doucet looks like a role player.
Click to expand...
Doucet looked solid to me!
 
SSOG said:
Fear & Loathing said:
Woke up to this offer in my inbox Friday morning:His Darren McFadden and 4th round pick for my late first-round pick.I'm not a big McFadden believer, but with Westbrook as my third RB I figured it was worth rolling the dice. It's a keep-11 league, so there are still quality players available in the fourth round. In fact, outside of last year's draft, you could easily stumble upon just as good of a player in the fourth as you could late in the first. It's obviously not the same in a full-blown Dynasty league, but I probably would have pulled the trigger anyway considering what's likely to be available with the No. 10-12 picks in the first.
Click to expand...
That's what I'm talking about with McFadden. It's not like I'm a believer or I think he's going to become a stud. It's that his price has fallen WAY below where it should be. Regardless of how you feel about him, he's a 22-year old RB who was the #4 overall selection (and not a Heyward-Bey, only a top-10 selection because Davis is a moron type pick- he was a legitimate top 10 draft pick). For his career, he has fewer carries than Knowshon Moreno, and he has averaged more yards per carry than Knowshon Moreno, to boot (despite playing in a dramatically worse offense). It's very likely that McFadden's going to be a major fantasy dud for the rest of his career... but his price right now is a broken shoelace and a stick of already chewed gum. His price is way lower than it should be. The #12 pick in my rookie draft last year was Glen Coffee. Is there ANYONE that would rather have Glenn Coffee than Darren McFadden?
Click to expand...
I'd rather have McFadden than Coffee, but Coffee was about 30 something on my draft board last year so that's not saying anything. I'd rather have all of the guys I took after #12 than McFadden, they included Collie, Wallace, Deon Butler, Jarrett Dillard, James Casey, Jared Cook, and Travis Beckham. Ok, maybe not Beckham, but the rest of them? Hell yea!I think there's enough talent in late round 1/early round 2 to make a similar pick this year, but that's also a traditional dyno and not a keep 11 which would alter my strategy significantly. I'm not sure exactly what I'd be doing in a keep 11 as I've never done one but I do feel comfortable saying McFadden is not currently in my top 150 so he wouldn't be a strong consideration to keep in such a format.
 
MAC_32 said:
SSOG said:
Fear & Loathing said:
Woke up to this offer in my inbox Friday morning:His Darren McFadden and 4th round pick for my late first-round pick.I'm not a big McFadden believer, but with Westbrook as my third RB I figured it was worth rolling the dice. It's a keep-11 league, so there are still quality players available in the fourth round. In fact, outside of last year's draft, you could easily stumble upon just as good of a player in the fourth as you could late in the first. It's obviously not the same in a full-blown Dynasty league, but I probably would have pulled the trigger anyway considering what's likely to be available with the No. 10-12 picks in the first.
Click to expand...
That's what I'm talking about with McFadden. It's not like I'm a believer or I think he's going to become a stud. It's that his price has fallen WAY below where it should be. Regardless of how you feel about him, he's a 22-year old RB who was the #4 overall selection (and not a Heyward-Bey, only a top-10 selection because Davis is a moron type pick- he was a legitimate top 10 draft pick). For his career, he has fewer carries than Knowshon Moreno, and he has averaged more yards per carry than Knowshon Moreno, to boot (despite playing in a dramatically worse offense). It's very likely that McFadden's going to be a major fantasy dud for the rest of his career... but his price right now is a broken shoelace and a stick of already chewed gum. His price is way lower than it should be. The #12 pick in my rookie draft last year was Glen Coffee. Is there ANYONE that would rather have Glenn Coffee than Darren McFadden?
Click to expand...
I'd rather have McFadden than Coffee, but Coffee was about 30 something on my draft board last year so that's not saying anything. I'd rather have all of the guys I took after #12 than McFadden, they included Collie, Wallace, Deon Butler, Jarrett Dillard, James Casey, Jared Cook, and Travis Beckham. Ok, maybe not Beckham, but the rest of them? Hell yea!I think there's enough talent in late round 1/early round 2 to make a similar pick this year, but that's also a traditional dyno and not a keep 11 which would alter my strategy significantly. I'm not sure exactly what I'd be doing in a keep 11 as I've never done one but I do feel comfortable saying McFadden is not currently in my top 150 so he wouldn't be a strong consideration to keep in such a format.
Click to expand...
I couldn't ever figure out why people were taking guys like Coffee at the 1.12. Britt was still available at mine, and I wouldn't trade him for mcfadden under any conditions...I might grab mcfadden but not for more than a 2nd rounder at this point
 
Steed said:
McFadden could very well be on his way to having an extensive injury history. He hasn't been that healthy missing 7 games in his short career.
Click to expand...
Sure, McFadden could be on the way to an extensive injury history. Adrian Peterson could be, too.
dickey moe said:
Still don't understand this.
Click to expand...
He's 24. He was the best receiving prospect in the last decade, at the very least. He already has a 1300/12 season. He's the biggest physical freak of nature in the league. Despite his "disappointing" 3rd season, he's 9th in NFL history in receiving yardage through age 24. Take your pick.
MAC_32 said:
I'd rather have McFadden than Coffee, but Coffee was about 30 something on my draft board last year so that's not saying anything. I'd rather have all of the guys I took after #12 than McFadden, they included Collie, Wallace, Deon Butler, Jarrett Dillard, James Casey, Jared Cook, and Travis Beckham. Ok, maybe not Beckham, but the rest of them? Hell yea!

I think there's enough talent in late round 1/early round 2 to make a similar pick this year, but that's also a traditional dyno and not a keep 11 which would alter my strategy significantly. I'm not sure exactly what I'd be doing in a keep 11 as I've never done one but I do feel comfortable saying McFadden is not currently in my top 150 so he wouldn't be a strong consideration to keep in such a format.
Click to expand...
This really just speaks to how criminally underrated McFadden is right now. I would trade any player you just mentioned for McFadden straight up without blinking or without hesitating. To be honest, I'd feel a little bit dirty if I managed to get McFadden for such a pittance.
 
footballsavvy said:
az_prof said:
EthnicFury said:
I've been trying to gauge Early Doucet's value and have been having a hard time. With Boldin probably leaving (and maybe breaston too I think I read on here somewhere) it should increase, but reports of warner retiring worry me...any thoughts?
Click to expand...
I saw him drop several passes and just wasn't impressed. Breaston now... He impressed. Doucet looks like a role player.
Click to expand...
Doucet looked solid to me!
Click to expand...
:shrug: I thought he looked fantastic.
 
SSOG said:
Steed said:
McFadden could very well be on his way to having an extensive injury history. He hasn't been that healthy missing 7 games in his short career.
Click to expand...
Sure, McFadden could be on the way to an extensive injury history. Adrian Peterson could be, too.
Click to expand...
This comparison holds no water. Peterson has been very durable despite his reputation coming into the league.
 
Steed said:
SSOG said:
Steed said:
McFadden could very well be on his way to having an extensive injury history. He hasn't been that healthy missing 7 games in his short career.
Click to expand...
Sure, McFadden could be on the way to an extensive injury history. Adrian Peterson could be, too.
Click to expand...
This comparison holds no water. Peterson has been very durable despite his reputation coming into the league.
Click to expand...
Peterson missed 2 full games and 7 total starts his Rookie year because of injury, and struggled with injuries in college, too (whereas McFadden was healthy through college).I agree that it's ludicrous to suggest that Peterson is likely to become Chris Perry and wash out of the league after 80 injuries. Just because he had two unrelated injuries in back-to-back seasons (one in college, one in the pros) doesn't mean that a guy is injury prone. You know, just like the fact that Darren McFadden has had two unrelated injuries (one toe injury, one knee injury) in back to back seasons doesn't mean that he's injury prone.

So, if McFadden's not injury prone, then I recognize the fact that he COULD wash out of the league due to injuries in much the same way that any healthy young non-injury-prone RB *COULD* wash out of the league due to injuries at any moment.

 
The bottom line for me is that McFadden has looked like complete crap 90% of the time he has played. It would be one thing if he wasn't getting any chances, but he has logged 217 carries and looked very pedestrian doing it. Poor performance is much more damning than no performance. This isn't like Larry Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, or Deuce McAllister sitting on the bench as rookies. This guy is getting opportunities to produce and generally doing nothing with them.

You can dig up examples of guys who stumbled out of the blocks like Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson if you want to maintain optimism about McFadden's long term prospects, but my subjective opinion is that he's plain and simply a bust. The Raiders picked him high. They've given him chances to make plays. He hasn't delivered. Thus far he's been unable to decisively unseat Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. I can see why he would look like a good buy low candidate on paper, but I think people are better off looking elsewhere.

 
dickey moe said:
Fear & Loathing said:
MAC_32 said:
travdogg said:
Post knee injury, where does Wes Welker fall to in the rankings?

I'm guessing he falls out of tier 3, but it seems like falling past tier 4 might be too far. I'd probably prefer him to Braylon Edwards, but probably not to Steve Smith.
Click to expand...
I think comparing him to Braylon Edwards is a fair comparison, damaged goods but for different reasons.That said, neither of those two belong in the same sentence as Steve Smith. I'll admit when I'm wrong about a guy and I was dead wrong about Smith.

If I were to lump some other names in with Welker and Edwards they'd be Lee Evans, TO, Chris Chambers, Santana Moss, Roy Williams, and Housh. A bunch of guys with some name value, most of it with negative correlations but name value nonetheless, that I wouldn't ever feel comfortable starting. I'd prefer promising young guys like Wallace, Jacoby Jones, James Jones, Harry Douglas, among others and old guys that won't die like Driver and Mason to any of them. Welker's at the top of that grouping I mentioned because if he did come back I'd feel comfortable starting him, but I don't feel comfortable that he'll ever be back close to where he was, at least for an extended period of time anyway.

I love everything about Welker, but his game is reading defenses and making quick cuts. He won't lose the ability to read defenses, but his ability to cut is highly in question. He's still got a lot of value in many people's eyes, I'd either sell right now or right before he comes back. He's got the mentality of a warrior, but his body can't withstand the pounding his game demands. I'm glad I was proactive in hedging my bets, trading him in one league when I first learned of the balky knee in September. I'm also glad I was able to get a pretty good return in my other league last week, selling him, Justin Durant, the 1.10 and 3.10 this year, and a 3rd next year for a 1.3 this year and another 1st next year. I just don't think the risk is worth it.
Click to expand...
:bag: I'm working on some rankings right now for an upcoming Rotoworld article. Here are the top four tiers of receivers. Miles Austin continues to climb:

<b>Tier One</b>

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 100

2. Andre Johnson, Texans | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 100

3. Calvin Johnson, Lions | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 99
Click to expand...
Still don't understand this.
Click to expand...
My thoughts exactly. He should be #2 or better...but it's not my blog. :)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Fear & Loathing said:
footballsavvy said:
az_prof said:
EthnicFury said:
I've been trying to gauge Early Doucet's value and have been having a hard time. With Boldin probably leaving (and maybe breaston too I think I read on here somewhere) it should increase, but reports of warner retiring worry me...any thoughts?
Click to expand...
I saw him drop several passes and just wasn't impressed. Breaston now... He impressed. Doucet looks like a role player.
Click to expand...
Doucet looked solid to me!
Click to expand...
:hifive: I thought he looked fantastic.
Click to expand...
Dropped balls really stand out to me--it seems like receivers who have the dropsies rarely solve that problem. Yes, he made some plays, but he also left some on the field.Beyond his play in this one game, i don't like the long term prospects. He is clearly not going to be better than the third WR on that team anytime soon (assuming Boldin goes, which isn't certain). And, who will his QB be when Warner retires?
 
EBF said:
The bottom line for me is that McFadden has looked like complete crap 90% of the time he has played. It would be one thing if he wasn't getting any chances, but he has logged 217 carries and looked very pedestrian doing it. Poor performance is much more damning than no performance. This isn't like Larry Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, or Deuce McAllister sitting on the bench as rookies. This guy is getting opportunities to produce and generally doing nothing with them. You can dig up examples of guys who stumbled out of the blocks like Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson if you want to maintain optimism about McFadden's long term prospects, but my subjective opinion is that he's plain and simply a bust. The Raiders picked him high. They've given him chances to make plays. He hasn't delivered. Thus far he's been unable to decisively unseat Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. I can see why he would look like a good buy low candidate on paper, but I think people are better off looking elsewhere.
Click to expand...
I agree as far as his running ability goes. People who want to blame it all on the Raider's poor offense have to explain why Bush has run better. But I don't agree that he has no talent--the Raiders are not very good at figuring out how to take advantage of individual talent or putting together a cohesive team. I am thinking about offering a late second round rookie pick for him but I wouldn't even think about offering a first round pick. I wonder if he might not be like Thomas Jones, whom I soured on when I watched him do so poorly at AZ. Like McFadden, Jones was given EVERY opportunity to be the starter, and injuries and poor play just seemed to dog his early career. When he left AZ his career took off. Like Jones, McFadden has an elite pedigree and has under performed, both on very bad teams. It does seem possible that when McFadden finally is free of the Raiders or if they get a real HC and OC and QB (yeah,,,,right...) that he COULD become an elite back in PPR at least. I wouldn't consider him at all outside of PPR leagues.
 
EBF said:
The bottom line for me is that McFadden has looked like complete crap 90% of the time he has played. It would be one thing if he wasn't getting any chances, but he has logged 217 carries and looked very pedestrian doing it. Poor performance is much more damning than no performance. This isn't like Larry Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, or Deuce McAllister sitting on the bench as rookies. This guy is getting opportunities to produce and generally doing nothing with them.
Click to expand...
Absolutely agreed. And even if you attribute his performance to the black hole that is the Raiders... he's signed there for another four seasons. I realize that talent far outweighs situation in dynasty consideration, but 1) I don't believe McFadden to be the kind of elite talent able to transcend a horrific supporting cast/organization, and 2) even considering how quickly things can change in the NFL, I see absolutely no way the Raiders right the ship within 4-5 years.
 
az_prof said:
Fear & Loathing said:
footballsavvy said:
az_prof said:
EthnicFury said:
I've been trying to gauge Early Doucet's value and have been having a hard time. With Boldin probably leaving (and maybe breaston too I think I read on here somewhere) it should increase, but reports of warner retiring worry me...any thoughts?
Click to expand...
I saw him drop several passes and just wasn't impressed. Breaston now... He impressed. Doucet looks like a role player.
Click to expand...
Doucet looked solid to me!
Click to expand...
:hifive: I thought he looked fantastic.
Click to expand...
Dropped balls really stand out to me--it seems like receivers who have the dropsies rarely solve that problem. Yes, he made some plays, but he also left some on the field.Beyond his play in this one game, i don't like the long term prospects. He is clearly not going to be better than the third WR on that team anytime soon (assuming Boldin goes, which isn't certain). And, who will his QB be when Warner retires?
Click to expand...
So you are assuming Boldin goes but assuming Breaston stays? I'm sure you've seen more of Doucet than I have, but he sure looked good today IMO. I picked him up off the waiver wire a couple weeks ago and plan to sit on him until the Cards' personnel issues are sorted out.
 
az_prof said:
Fear & Loathing said:
footballsavvy said:
az_prof said:
EthnicFury said:
I've been trying to gauge Early Doucet's value and have been having a hard time. With Boldin probably leaving (and maybe breaston too I think I read on here somewhere) it should increase, but reports of warner retiring worry me...any thoughts?
Click to expand...
I saw him drop several passes and just wasn't impressed. Breaston now... He impressed. Doucet looks like a role player.
Click to expand...
Doucet looked solid to me!
Click to expand...
;) I thought he looked fantastic.
Click to expand...
Dropped balls really stand out to me--it seems like receivers who have the dropsies rarely solve that problem. Yes, he made some plays, but he also left some on the field.Beyond his play in this one game, i don't like the long term prospects. He is clearly not going to be better than the third WR on that team anytime soon (assuming Boldin goes, which isn't certain). And, who will his QB be when Warner retires?
Click to expand...
All receivers drop balls. I saw Larry Fitzgerald draw two balls in one game this year. T.O. has been dropping balls his whole career, and he's been a Dynasty superstar for the past decade. Doucet's after-the-catch ability Sunday was very impressive.

 
Couch Potato said:
I'm on board with Celek. I think when we look back on 2009, he and Jermichael Finley will turn out to have been the most underrated TEs. Consensus now according to FBG's ADP sorter are TE19 for Celek and no ranking among top 21 for Finley. Celek could get to the 7-8 range and Finley could get to 14-16 I think.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/a...ortby=consensus
Click to expand...
By the way, this post needs a little bit of love. There's more to Couch Potato than just Mike Sims-Walker.
 
Magnus_CA said:
dickey moe said:
Fear & Loathing said:
<b>Tier One</b>

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 100

2. Andre Johnson, Texans | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 100

3. Calvin Johnson, Lions | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 99
Click to expand...
Still don't understand this.
Click to expand...
My thoughts exactly. He should be #2 or better...but it's not my blog. :no:
Click to expand...
All I know is as an AJ owner, I wouldn't trade him for Calvin yet. In 3 years I would, but for the next 3 years I have a hard time seeing Calvin being as productive as AJ or Fitz.
 
SSOG said:
Couch Potato said:
I'm on board with Celek. I think when we look back on 2009, he and Jermichael Finley will turn out to have been the most underrated TEs. Consensus now according to FBG's ADP sorter are TE19 for Celek and no ranking among top 21 for Finley. Celek could get to the 7-8 range and Finley could get to 14-16 I think.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/a...ortby=consensus
Click to expand...
By the way, this post needs a little bit of love. There's more to Couch Potato than just Mike Sims-Walker.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes:
 
Just Win Baby said:
SSOG said:
Couch Potato said:
I'm on board with Celek. I think when we look back on 2009, he and Jermichael Finley will turn out to have been the most underrated TEs. Consensus now according to FBG's ADP sorter are TE19 for Celek and no ranking among top 21 for Finley. Celek could get to the 7-8 range and Finley could get to 14-16 I think.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/a...ortby=consensus
Click to expand...
By the way, this post needs a little bit of love. There's more to Couch Potato than just Mike Sims-Walker.
Click to expand...
:coffee:
Click to expand...
:thumbup: CP is the man!

 
FUBAR said:
Magnus_CA said:
dickey moe said:
Fear & Loathing said:
<b>Tier One</b>

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 100

2. Andre Johnson, Texans | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 100

3. Calvin Johnson, Lions | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 99
Click to expand...
Still don't understand this.
Click to expand...
My thoughts exactly. He should be #2 or better...but it's not my blog. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
All I know is as an AJ owner, I wouldn't trade him for Calvin yet. In 3 years I would, but for the next 3 years I have a hard time seeing Calvin being as productive as AJ or Fitz.
Click to expand...
:coffee: Three years? He was already right there with them in productivity in 2008. He was also the only receiver in the league facing triple coverage in 2009.

There's no doubt in my mind Calvin has the highest ceiling among receivers. I don't see how anyone could be surprised if he had a 90/1,500/18 season in 2010.

 
SSOG said:
Everyone, raise your hands if you would have guessed that Jason Witten had over 1000 yards receiving this year. It's crazy to think that, for all the talk of how much of a disappointment he's been this year, he actually finished the season with 13 more catches for 80 more yards than he had last year (when he was TE2), and a mere 2 catches for 115 yards less than he had in his marvelous 2007 campaign. The real cause of his demise? Those 2 TDs he posted. Luckily for us, we all know that TDs are wildly unpredictable from year to year, so we can all swoop in and buy Witten from a disappointed owner for far less than he's really worth.
Click to expand...
From another thread:
Bandite said:
Team A: traded Jason Witten and pick 4.3Team B: traded pick 1.8 and 3.3
Click to expand...
That's a steal IMO.
 
FUBAR said:
Magnus_CA said:
dickey moe said:
Fear & Loathing said:
<b>Tier One</b>

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 100

2. Andre Johnson, Texans | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 100

3. Calvin Johnson, Lions | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 99
Click to expand...
Still don't understand this.
Click to expand...
My thoughts exactly. He should be #2 or better...but it's not my blog. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
All I know is as an AJ owner, I wouldn't trade him for Calvin yet. In 3 years I would, but for the next 3 years I have a hard time seeing Calvin being as productive as AJ or Fitz.
Click to expand...
I'm a CJ owner and would trade him for Johnson. :shrug:
 
GreatLakesMike said:
SSOG said:
Everyone, raise your hands if you would have guessed that Jason Witten had over 1000 yards receiving this year. It's crazy to think that, for all the talk of how much of a disappointment he's been this year, he actually finished the season with 13 more catches for 80 more yards than he had last year (when he was TE2), and a mere 2 catches for 115 yards less than he had in his marvelous 2007 campaign. The real cause of his demise? Those 2 TDs he posted. Luckily for us, we all know that TDs are wildly unpredictable from year to year, so we can all swoop in and buy Witten from a disappointed owner for far less than he's really worth.
Click to expand...
From another thread:
Bandite said:
Team A: traded Jason Witten and pick 4.3Team B: traded pick 1.8 and 3.3
Click to expand...
That's a steal IMO.
Click to expand...
It depends on his roster and requirements/limitations I'm offering Keller for a 3rd round pick right now - but only because I already have Gates and Finley and we can only carry 2 TEs into the rookie draft and can only start 1 TE.
 
Fear & Loathing said:
FUBAR said:
Magnus_CA said:
dickey moe said:
Fear & Loathing said:
<b>Tier One</b>

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 100

2. Andre Johnson, Texans | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 100

3. Calvin Johnson, Lions | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 99
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Still don't understand this.
Click to expand...
My thoughts exactly. He should be #2 or better...but it's not my blog. :yucky:
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All I know is as an AJ owner, I wouldn't trade him for Calvin yet. In 3 years I would, but for the next 3 years I have a hard time seeing Calvin being as productive as AJ or Fitz.
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:unsure: Three years? He was already right there with them in productivity in 2008. He was also the only receiver in the league facing triple coverage in 2009.

There's no doubt in my mind Calvin has the highest ceiling among receivers. I don't see how anyone could be surprised if he had a 90/1,500/18 season in 2010.
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I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 90 catch/1500 yard season but I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 65 catch/900 yard season either. And I would be more surprised by the former than the latter.In three years of being a featured WR he has had one good year. The QB situation in Detroit looks promising, but let's face it, it's far from settled or proven. It's hard for me to understand why you can be so high on the potential of Johnson and so willing to overlook the proven success of Marshall. Marshall IS a stud; Johnson is being paid like one and is given the kudos of one, but has not consistently performed like a stud.

 
Fear & Loathing said:
FUBAR said:
Magnus_CA said:
dickey moe said:
Fear & Loathing said:
<b>Tier One</b>

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals | Age: 27.0 | Value Score: 100

2. Andre Johnson, Texans | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 100

3. Calvin Johnson, Lions | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 99
Click to expand...
Still don't understand this.
Click to expand...
My thoughts exactly. He should be #2 or better...but it's not my blog. :shrug:
Click to expand...
All I know is as an AJ owner, I wouldn't trade him for Calvin yet. In 3 years I would, but for the next 3 years I have a hard time seeing Calvin being as productive as AJ or Fitz.
Click to expand...
:thumbup: Three years? He was already right there with them in productivity in 2008. He was also the only receiver in the league facing triple coverage in 2009.

There's no doubt in my mind Calvin has the highest ceiling among receivers. I don't see how anyone could be surprised if he had a 90/1,500/18 season in 2010.
Click to expand...
Are we to assume that he will catch all of Stafford's TD passes? Im not doubting his ability. The opportunity may never be there in Detroit. Staffors is going to have to get A LOT better very quickly for CAlvin to put up those stats. He is also going to need to find a way to stay on the field a bit more consistently. I wouldnt give hom the injury prone label just yet, but if he misses anymore than 2 games next year, then i'd be worried.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
az_prof said:
I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 90 catch/1500 yard season but I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 65 catch/900 yard season either. And I would be more surprised by the former than the latter.In three years of being a featured WR he has had one good year. The QB situation in Detroit looks promising, but let's face it, it's far from settled or proven. It's hard for me to understand why you can be so high on the potential of Johnson and so willing to overlook the proven success of Marshall. Marshall IS a stud; Johnson is being paid like one and is given the kudos of one, but has not consistently performed like a stud.
Click to expand...
He put up 67-984-5 while playing with Culpepper and a rookie Stafford, missing what basically comes down to 4 games this season and not being 100% in many of the rest of the games. By contrast, last year Roddy White put up 88-1382-7 in 2008 while playing a full 16 games with a rookie quarterback and everyone was ready to anoint him a perennial top-10 WR. Even comparing the first four games of each season (right before CJ went down) they were mirror images of each other -- CJ was 21-323-1 and White was 18-322-1. The two seasons are very similar and I just don't understand why most people are down on CJ, especially since he's the better talent -- Don't get me wrong, I'm happy that he'll be undervalued, I just don't understand it.
 
Paul Newton said:
az_prof said:
I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 90 catch/1500 yard season but I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 65 catch/900 yard season either. And I would be more surprised by the former than the latter.In three years of being a featured WR he has had one good year. The QB situation in Detroit looks promising, but let's face it, it's far from settled or proven. It's hard for me to understand why you can be so high on the potential of Johnson and so willing to overlook the proven success of Marshall. Marshall IS a stud; Johnson is being paid like one and is given the kudos of one, but has not consistently performed like a stud.
Click to expand...
He put up 67-984-5 while playing with Culpepper and a rookie Stafford, missing what basically comes down to 4 games this season and not being 100% in many of the rest of the games. By contrast, last year Roddy White put up 88-1382-7 in 2008 while playing a full 16 games with a rookie quarterback and everyone was ready to anoint him a perennial top-10 WR. Even comparing the first four games of each season (right before CJ went down) they were mirror images of each other -- CJ was 21-323-1 and White was 18-322-1. The two seasons are very similar and I just don't understand why most people are down on CJ, especially since he's the better talent -- Don't get me wrong, I'm happy that he'll be undervalued, I just don't understand it.
Click to expand...
Again, White HAS performed with sub-par QB play (just as Marshall has), but yet it is trotted out as an excuse for Johnson's inconsistent performance. I don't get this. And if you compare White to Johnson I see one guy who now has three years of top 10 performance and another guy who has one. What I want to see is consistent performance, not potential. I wouldn't trade White for Johnson.
 
az_prof said:
Paul Newton said:
az_prof said:
I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 90 catch/1500 yard season but I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 65 catch/900 yard season either. And I would be more surprised by the former than the latter.In three years of being a featured WR he has had one good year. The QB situation in Detroit looks promising, but let's face it, it's far from settled or proven. It's hard for me to understand why you can be so high on the potential of Johnson and so willing to overlook the proven success of Marshall. Marshall IS a stud; Johnson is being paid like one and is given the kudos of one, but has not consistently performed like a stud.
Click to expand...
He put up 67-984-5 while playing with Culpepper and a rookie Stafford, missing what basically comes down to 4 games this season and not being 100% in many of the rest of the games. By contrast, last year Roddy White put up 88-1382-7 in 2008 while playing a full 16 games with a rookie quarterback and everyone was ready to anoint him a perennial top-10 WR. Even comparing the first four games of each season (right before CJ went down) they were mirror images of each other -- CJ was 21-323-1 and White was 18-322-1. The two seasons are very similar and I just don't understand why most people are down on CJ, especially since he's the better talent -- Don't get me wrong, I'm happy that he'll be undervalued, I just don't understand it.
Click to expand...
Again, White HAS performed with sub-par QB play (just as Marshall has), but yet it is trotted out as an excuse for Johnson's inconsistent performance. I don't get this. And if you compare White to Johnson I see one guy who now has three years of top 10 performance and another guy who has one. What I want to see is consistent performance, not potential. I wouldn't trade White for Johnson.
Click to expand...
If you can't see that the seasons are almost identical on a per game basis and CJs totals are only lacking due to injury then I can't help you.
 
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