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Dynasty Rankings (4 Viewers)

Anyone have a 'gut' feeling on any of the UFA's out there that might be in a good situation?Keiland Williams (Washington)
Wait, Shanahan signed a UFA RB? <writes down name> Dude couldn't beat out Hester or Scott in college but he's got size and decent speed. Shanahan has done a lot with less.
 
Anyone have a 'gut' feeling on any of the UFA's out there that might be in a good situation?Keiland Williams (Washington)
Wait, Shanahan signed a UFA RB? <writes down name> Dude couldn't beat out Hester or Scott in college but he's got size and decent speed. Shanahan has done a lot with less.
I don't think he was given the opportunity that was given Scott and Hester...Hester was the leader of the team, the safe bet, never fumbles type of guy. Scott had one good yr and that put KW as the backup...he is a good back...i think he could be more productive than Scott in the NFL given the right situation. But I do agree, for a very hyped 5 star HS player, he sure did not deliver at LSU.
 
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Anyone have a 'gut' feeling on any of the UFA's out there that might be in a good situation?Keiland Williams (Washington)
Wait, Shanahan signed a UFA RB? <writes down name> Dude couldn't beat out Hester or Scott in college but he's got size and decent speed. Shanahan has done a lot with less.
I don't think he was given the opportunity that was given Scott and Hester...Hester was the leader of the team, the safe bet, never fumbles type of guy. Scott had one good yr and that put KW as the backup...he is a good back...i think he could be more productive than Scott in the NFL given the right situation. But I do agree, for a very hyped 5 star HS player, he sure did not deliver at LSU.
I thought Williams started one year but then fumbled his way to the bench and never got off it.
 
A couple of Chris Johnson items that aren't really news worthy for Rotoworld updates, but may be of interest to those here:

Don't rule out a Chris Johnson training-camp holdout

Posted by Mike Florio on May 8, 2010 8:53 AM ET

Recently, Jaguars receiver Mike Sims-Walker said he doesn't believe that his friend, Chris Johnson, will be holding out of training camp as he continues his quest for a new contract.

But maybe Sims-Walker doesn't know Chris Johnson as well as he thinks he does.

As we understand it, Johnson means business. Handcuffed by a slotted rookie contract that has three years remaining and playing a position in which the guy's best years usually come early in his career, Johnson knows he needs to get paid sooner rather than later.

If it means incurring fines in excess of $15,000 per day once training camp opens, so be it. (He'd also potentially forfeit the 2010 allocation of his signing bonus, but like many first-round picks over the past several years he received a minimal traditional signing bonus, due to the realities of the rookie salary pool.)

Heck, we're not prepared to rule out a holdout that lasts into the regular season. Since he's due to receive a base salary of only $550,000, he'd give up only $32,000 per week if he declines to play until he gets a new contract.

Regardless of how it all turns out, this thing has the potential to get very interesting for NFL fans -- and very distressing for fantasy owners who have his name penciled in at the top of the 2010 draft board.
Patriots' Alge Crumpler remains fan of Titans, Chris Johnson
Former Titans tight end Alge Crumpler acknowledged it wasn't an easy decision to leave for the Patriots, where he plans to finish his career.

In speaking with the Boston-area media this week, Crumpler also raved about Titans running back Chris Johnson, and how he might be a little misunderstood. Crumpler said Johnson "is a special young kid.

"Just the time that I spent with him, I don't know what anybody's perception is other than he's fast, but he's better than just fast,'' Crumpler said. "He's a good running back — inside, outside, catching the football, and a good quiet guy in the locker room.

"It's weird, people may see his dreads or his teeth and think one thing, but that's far from it. He is a great individual, a great player, and I'm looking forward to him getting back in that organization and doing some things."
 
Post-draft QB & RB ranks are updated, with contract status cleaned up. Took quite a few hours, so I may not get to WR/TE in the next day or so.

 
A couple of Chris Johnson items that aren't really news worthy for Rotoworld updates, but may be of interest to those here:

Don't rule out a Chris Johnson training-camp holdout

Posted by Mike Florio on May 8, 2010 8:53 AM ET

Recently, Jaguars receiver Mike Sims-Walker said he doesn't believe that his friend, Chris Johnson, will be holding out of training camp as he continues his quest for a new contract.

But maybe Sims-Walker doesn't know Chris Johnson as well as he thinks he does.

As we understand it, Johnson means business. Handcuffed by a slotted rookie contract that has three years remaining and playing a position in which the guy's best years usually come early in his career, Johnson knows he needs to get paid sooner rather than later.

If it means incurring fines in excess of $15,000 per day once training camp opens, so be it. (He'd also potentially forfeit the 2010 allocation of his signing bonus, but like many first-round picks over the past several years he received a minimal traditional signing bonus, due to the realities of the rookie salary pool.)

Heck, we're not prepared to rule out a holdout that lasts into the regular season. Since he's due to receive a base salary of only $550,000, he'd give up only $32,000 per week if he declines to play until he gets a new contract.

Regardless of how it all turns out, this thing has the potential to get very interesting for NFL fans -- and very distressing for fantasy owners who have his name penciled in at the top of the 2010 draft board.
Patriots' Alge Crumpler remains fan of Titans, Chris Johnson
Former Titans tight end Alge Crumpler acknowledged it wasn't an easy decision to leave for the Patriots, where he plans to finish his career.

In speaking with the Boston-area media this week, Crumpler also raved about Titans running back Chris Johnson, and how he might be a little misunderstood. Crumpler said Johnson "is a special young kid.

"Just the time that I spent with him, I don't know what anybody's perception is other than he's fast, but he's better than just fast,'' Crumpler said. "He's a good running back — inside, outside, catching the football, and a good quiet guy in the locker room.

"It's weird, people may see his dreads or his teeth and think one thing, but that's far from it. He is a great individual, a great player, and I'm looking forward to him getting back in that organization and doing some things."
If I'm Chris Johnson and the Titans don't want to negotiate a 2010 salary far beyond $550K, I stay home without a second thought. ... and while he's holding out he should run down JaMarcus Russell and kick him in the groin, hard.
 
They can't pay him this year. 30% rule guys..
Should make for a quick resolution, then.Chris Johnson: "I'm holding out for more money."Tennessee: "Here is the maximum amount of money that we can possibly give you. We know it's a fraction of what you deserve, but there is absolutely no way for us to possibly give you so much as a penny more until a new collective bargaining agreement is in place."Holdout over.
 
They can't pay him this year. 30% rule guys..
Should make for a quick resolution, then.Chris Johnson: "I'm holding out for more money."Tennessee: "Here is the maximum amount of money that we can possibly give you. We know it's a fraction of what you deserve, but there is absolutely no way for us to possibly give you so much as a penny more until a new collective bargaining agreement is in place."Holdout over.
Chris Johnson: "Here's a list of 10 teams with more favorable salary situations. Please contact their front offices."Tennessee: "#@!%".--------------------------------Probably a 2% chance of Johnson responding that way, but people are stupid sometimes.
 
The Titan's are idiots if they don't pay him. To heck with setting an example or any of that stupid stuff. EVERYONE knows he deserves it. Pay him and move on. Really pissed at the organization if they don't pay him. If he holds out, I'll be mad at Titan's NOT CJ.

 
A lot of mis-information on the 30 percent rule here.

The Patrick Willis deal isn't a good model for CJ2K because Willis already had a much higher base salary as the No. 11 overall pick.

The Kevin Kolb deal isn't a great model for several reasons: Kolb was only signed through 2010. Johnson is locked up through 2012. They can't just tack a year on to the deal like they did with Kolb, making up for the lack of a base salary with a lump signing bonus. The Eagles wanted to bring Kolb's paycheck in line with other Top-12 QBs. The Titans can't easily do that with Johnson because of his position, his current deal and the 30 percent rule.

The Titans are not idiots if they don't pay him. They have to find a way to make it work with the 30 percent rule, which is no small stumbling block. SSOG's suggestion is the best one on here, but it's also much more complex than that.

Johnson can't find another team with a better salary situation because the salary situation isn't the problem. The 30 percent rule is.

 
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Chris Johnson: "Here's a list of 10 teams with more favorable salary situations. Please contact their front offices."Tennessee: "#@!%".--------------------------------Probably a 2% chance of Johnson responding that way, but people are stupid sometimes.
Tennessee: "We'd be perfectly happy to. Not a single one of them could offer a penny more, because the 30% rule is an NFL-wide rule. Sorry, bud".
 
Chris Johnson: "Here's a list of 10 teams with more favorable salary situations. Please contact their front offices."Tennessee: "#@!%".--------------------------------Probably a 2% chance of Johnson responding that way, but people are stupid sometimes.
Tennessee: "We'd be perfectly happy to. Not a single one of them could offer a penny more, because the 30% rule is an NFL-wide rule. Sorry, bud".
Man.... I flubbed my understanding of this one badly. For whatever reason, I was thinking that a signing bonus would only apply in a trade... but I suppose the Titans could sign a 1 year extension with a 30% base salary increase and a ridiculous signing bonus and be within the rules.Why not just give the guy a $1M signing bonus for 1 year extension as a good faith measure on the next year when a new CBA might allow a better long-term option. I mean, they could load a bunch of performance qualifications in the extension if they were worried about making the signing bonus too big.I don't know... I'm certainly no expert on the inner workings of the NFL's contract rules, but it seems like Tennessee could get **something** done, even if it wasn't the monster contract CJ would optimally want.
 
The best they could do is give him the 30% in good faith, and then let him know they'll restructure the contract next off-season..

 
I don't know... I'm certainly no expert on the inner workings of the NFL's contract rules, but it seems like Tennessee could get **something** done, even if it wasn't the monster contract CJ would optimally want.
I'm sure, and I'm equally sure that they'll try to get something done. Tennessee likes having a super-cheap Chris Johnson... but if given the choice between a cheap Chris Johnson and a happy Chris Johnson, I strongly suspect they'd favor the latter. Tennessee probably wants CJ to be happy as much as CJ himself does.
 
I don't know... I'm certainly no expert on the inner workings of the NFL's contract rules, but it seems like Tennessee could get **something** done, even if it wasn't the monster contract CJ would optimally want.
I'm sure, and I'm equally sure that they'll try to get something done. Tennessee likes having a super-cheap Chris Johnson... but if given the choice between a cheap Chris Johnson and a happy Chris Johnson, I strongly suspect they'd favor the latter. Tennessee probably wants CJ to be happy as much as CJ himself does.
I agree. Contract talk fills the news void in the offseason, but it never benefits either party to have a holdout. The Titans will probably find a way to appease CJ for a year or two before finally making him happy.
 
Every year I enjoy drafting the available FAs in rookie drafts over the new players, whom everyone seems to get obsessed with (But loving Best and bryant this year early).

Either way, I was lucky enough to snag Sims-Walker, James Jones, Pierre Garcon and Jacoby Jones (Returns league) in the 6 round draft last year, and although I love my 8 WRs (Incl. White Jennings Desean and Tate) I always end up falling for even more of the FAs available come draft time.

This year some of the FAs include:

Early Doucet - Moving up to WR 3 but remains to be seen whether the passing game can accomodate him gaining healthy stats. Also believe he could beat out Breaston, but I am not a huge Breaston fan.

Steve Johnson - IMO should come into the WR 2 spot ahead of disappointing Hardy. Can produce as well IMO (I'm obviously a fan)

Legedu Naanee - Potential for the number two spot @ SD is always appetising (Well, number 3-4 with Gates and Sproles) but is battling Floyd who is always seems to be getting talked up. I've held onto Naanee for most of the last two years but dropped him late in the year.

Julian Edelman - Easy pick up if he drops far enough in my draft, will cover Welker's spot and well. Lucky to be a FA after last year.

Dwayne Jarrett - Potential to be a number 2 with a new QB behind centre, but don't think he will amount to anything.

Jason Hill - I'm a fan but have doubts as to whether he will amount to anything consistency wise. Passing chances to drop

Obomanu - Was talked up a bit a few years back after his solid post-season stats, and Seattle isn't exactly full of definite talent atm. Doubt he will do too much though.

Ogletree - WR wildcat, exciting player when he has the ball, but opportunities possibly drying up with the drafting of Bryant. Can move up to the WR 3 spot potentially

Robinson - Savvy owners would have picked him up in the last week of the season like Edelman, but Robinson showed enough early last year to me that he can be a very solid depth WR for your FF team at minimum. Probably the only sure WR on their roster atm as well.

Bolded are my favourite possible pickups, with Johnson probably being my number one (Realistically Edelman SHOULD be gone - Traded my 2009 1.07 for a 2010 pick which turned out to be 1.02, 2.06 potentially part of a trade for Wells and traded 3.06 foolishly last year for Mewelde Moore [Traded my first this year for Mendenhall last year]). Anyone have any other FA type WRs that could step up in even a small way? Anyone have any thoughts on the above players?

 
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Every year I enjoy drafting the available FAs in rookie drafts over the new players, whom everyone seems to get obsessed with (But loving Best and bryant this year early).

Either way, I was lucky enough to snag Sims-Walker, James Jones, Pierre Garcon and Jacoby Jones (Returns league) in the 6 round draft last year, and although I love my 8 WRs (Incl. White Jennings Desean and Tate) I always end up falling for even more of the FAs available come draft time.

This year some of the FAs include:

Early Doucet - Moving up to WR 3 but remains to be seen whether the passing game can accomodate him gaining healthy stats. Also believe he could beat out Breaston, but I am not a huge Breaston fan.

Steve Johnson - IMO should come into the WR 2 spot ahead of disappointing Hardy. Can produce as well IMO (I'm obviously a fan)

Legedu Naanee - Potential for the number two spot @ SD is always appetising (Well, number 3-4 with Gates and Sproles) but is battling Floyd who is always seems to be getting talked up.

Julian Edelman - Easy pick up if he drops far enough in my draft, will cover Welker's spot and well. Lucky to be a FA after last year.

Dwayne Jarrett - Potential to be a number 2 with a new QB behind centre, but don't think he will amount to anything.

Jason Hill - I'm a fan but have doubts as to whether he will amount to anything consistency wise. Passing chances to drop

Obomanu - Was talked up a bit a few years back after his solid post-season stats, and Seattle isn't exactly full of definite talent atm. Doubt he will do too much though.

Ogletree - WR wildcat, exciting player when he has the ball, but opportunities possibly drying up with the drafting of Bryant. Can move up to the WR 3 spot potentially

Robinson - Savvy owners would have picked him up in the last week of the season like Edelman, but Robinson showed enough early last year to me that he can be a very solid depth WR for your FF team at minimum. Probably the only sure WR on their roster atm as well.

Bolded are my favourite possible pickups, with Johnson probably being my number one (Realistically Edelman SHOULD be gone - Traded my 2009 1.07 for a 2010 pick which turned out to be 1.02, 2.06 potentially part of a trade for Wells and traded 3.06 foolishly last year for Mewelde Moore [Traded my first this year for Mendenhall last year]). Anyone have any other FA type WRs that could step up in even a small way? Anyone have any thoughts on the above players?
I think Doucet is a bit overrated at this point, but he's definitely rosterable talent in all but the shallowest of dynasty leagues. Ditto that 100% for Edelman (I know some people who think that "filling the Wes Welker role" is synonymous with "producing like Wes Welker"- how'd that work out when Nate Burleson filled in the "Randy Moss role"?). I agree that it's borderline crazy that those two and Robinson aren't already on rosters. After those three, I like Naanee because of the physical traits and the upside that San Diego represents. I couldn't imagine what might happen in SD if Turner ever got fired and replaced with a coach that was going to air it out. It'd probably be the new Indy. Even if Turner sticks around a while, both Floyd and VJax have expiring contracts, and I don't expect them both to return. If Naanee can just hold off any other challengers for a year, I think he'll have a starting job locked down by this time next year.

For the rest... well, none of them really blow my skirt up or anything. They all look to me like guys who'll be out of the league in two years.

 
What scares me about Bowe is that this is sort of a make-or-break year for him. If he doesn't step up and prove that he can be a dependable #1 WR in the NFL, I think you'll see his value fall considerably. If he comes out next year and gets something like 50-65 catches for 900 yards, the luster will come off a bit and people will start treating him more like a Lee Evans/Braylon Edwards.I sent him packing in the only league where I owned him. Not because I think he's a bust, but moreso because his value is high enough to package for an elite talent and I didn't want to be the guy left holding the bag if he goes the way of Rod Gardner.
:unsure:
 
I think the Sanchez/Henne/Stafford/Freeman debate is an interesting one, as there's not that much to distinguish them statistically yet, so you can make a case for any one of those guys as the best of the bunch. I feel like Henne might be the best value of the group in terms of upside/cost. He and Stafford seem like the only two who might be startable in 2010.

Having said that, one thing people never mention with Sanchez is his complete and utter lack of experience. He was only a full-time starter for one season in college, whereas Henne/Freeman/Stafford started for 3+ seasons. I think this put him behind the eight ball a little bit, although the USC coaching might compensate for some of the difference.

 
What are people's feelings on Forte right now? He seemed high on the F&L rankings. I wouldn't expect to be able to trade him for B. Tate or LSMC straight up (or even Hardesty, really), but he was (just barely) ahead of those guys in the rankings. Is he a good buy low? Martz should be a plus, but Chester should be a minus esp for PPR leagues.

 
What are people's feelings on Forte right now? He seemed high on the F&L rankings. I wouldn't expect to be able to trade him for B. Tate or LSMC straight up (or even Hardesty, really), but he was (just barely) ahead of those guys in the rankings. Is he a good buy low? Martz should be a plus, but Chester should be a minus esp for PPR leagues.
I think so. I'm going to start throwing out offers to the Forte and Holmes owners. From what I've read on this board, it doesn't appear that you'd have to give up anything significant for either. I don't see Taylor as a threat. Granted, Forte's not a special talent, but he is a starting RB.
 
Bryant opening @ spot 9 in the new WR rankings :coffee: Should be getting him @ 1.02 in my PPR dynasty.

Nice, and thanks for updating F&L.

Anyone think Tate has any chance of showing something this year in the NE offense? Brady seems to think so. Don't think the hold will quite pay off this year, or next even, but if he can keep a steady incline of development going he's going to be an exciting player I reckon. Thats a lot needed to go right though.

 
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Bryant opening @ spot 9 in the new WR rankings :lmao: Should be getting him @ 1.02 in my PPR dynasty. Nice, and thanks for updating F&L.Anyone think Tate has any chance of showing something this year in the NE offense? Brady seems to think so. Don't think the hold will quite pay off this year, or next even, but if he can keep a steady incline of development going he's going to be an exciting player I reckon. Thats a lot needed to go right though.
The Patriots need somebody to step up in the first seven games this season. Welker will likely start the season on PUP; those 123 catches and 162 targets have to go somewhere. This is a wide open competition after Moss. Edelman has the on field experience from last year and seems like the likely slot guy but who knows how the rest of it will shake out. Holt is aged and experienced but with little up-side; Aiken, meh; all the Tight Ends are new to the team; if Patten is on the 53 man roster this WR corp is in trouble. IF Tate has absorbed the playbook, his knees stay healthy and he works hard with Brady he could be an important part of the offense by mid season; the opportunity is there. This team needs one of these young guys to step up (that includes Gronkowski, Hernandez and Price); with the others all being rookies it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect Tate to figure into the equation sooner rather than later.
 
Bryant opening @ spot 9 in the new WR rankings :popcorn: Should be getting him @ 1.02 in my PPR dynasty. Nice, and thanks for updating F&L.Anyone think Tate has any chance of showing something this year in the NE offense? Brady seems to think so. Don't think the hold will quite pay off this year, or next even, but if he can keep a steady incline of development going he's going to be an exciting player I reckon. Thats a lot needed to go right though.
I'm counting on solid production from Tate this year, although my league rewards punt return yardage just like receiving yardage. 700 receiving yards and 300 punt return yards makes a pretty darn solid fantasy option. In a strictly offense-only league, I wouldn't expect Tate to see much action in my starting lineup. I really like him long-term, though.
 
speaking of Edelman....

would anyone draft him in the 1st round of a rookie/FA draft if you're drafting from the bottom half?

 
speaking of Edelman....would anyone draft him in the 1st round of a rookie/FA draft if you're drafting from the bottom half?
I wouldn't. In my mind, there's a huge difference between "playing the Wes Welker role" and "being Wes Welker". I think a lot of owners tend to overrate players who are in line to step into a role where a stud veteran has already been wildly productive, like when Minnesota shipped off Moss and then drafted Williamson. You see a lot of McCoy owners doing it, just plugging in 90% of Westbrook's numbers and assuming that's how McCoy will produce. In my experience, it's generally a "bad process" approach.The only reason to draft Edelman in the first is if you think he's a first round talent... and then the question is why, if Edelman was a first round talent, did he go the past year without making a roster. He's a former 7th round receiver with 360 career receiving yards. He might wind up becoming a quality fantasy starter, but I wouldn't bet a first rounder on it. Even a late first rounder.
 
I agree, although I don't think Welker is an ideal poster boy for the "talent > situation" argument since he was basically a complete zero until he landed on a team with a Hall of Fame QB and WR. If anything, he's living proof that a marginal player can produce like a superstar if he lands in the perfect situation for his skill set.

I don't know a whole lot about Edelman, but in general I think the Patriots are an overrated team based on what they accomplished in the past. Sure, they were dynamite in 2007 when all of their key players were enjoying career years, but that doesn't matter in 2010. Brady hasn't played at an elite level since 2007. Welker is recovering from a severe knee injury. Moss is right on the precipice of decline. This team is one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl? They'll be lucky to win their division, let alone the conference and league. They might only be the third best team in the AFC East next year.

So while I think it's easy to fall into the trap of equating New England with a potent offense, it's important to remember that you don't get points for the past. Even if Edelman succeeds, playing the "Wes Welker role" for the 2010 Patriots might not yield much better statistics than playing the "Davone Bess role" for the 2009 Dolphins.

 
I agree, although I don't think Welker is an ideal poster boy for the "talent > situation" argument since he was basically a complete zero until he landed on a team with a Hall of Fame QB and WR. If anything, he's living proof that a marginal player can produce like a superstar if he lands in the perfect situation for his skill set.
Welker was a zero coming out of college, but the Pats gave up a 2nd and a 7th for Welker, obviously before he'd caught a pass since Tom Brady. At least one NFL front office disagreed strongly that Welker was a "zero". I agree with your larger point, though.
 
do you guys think it would be a good or a bad idea to trade Rodgers?

There are some decent QB's like Rivers, Cutler, Eli, McNabb, Kolb, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Matt Ryan, Vince Young and even Favre can produce

for example you can trade Rodgers for Eli and a RB or some picks or some thing like that.

BUT Rodgers was money EVERY week last year....

 
I agree, although I don't think Welker is an ideal poster boy for the "talent > situation" argument since he was basically a complete zero until he landed on a team with a Hall of Fame QB and WR. If anything, he's living proof that a marginal player can produce like a superstar if he lands in the perfect situation for his skill set.
I think this is grossly unfair to Wes Welker. Just because he doesn't have the prototypical WR skills (4.3 forty, 6'2" frame, 40" vertical) doesn't mean he's a marginal player. He's sort of the Chad Pennington of the WR world- he lacks the flashy attention-grabbing skills, but he's just so elite and consistent in other areas that if you play to his strengths he's a phenomenal talent.Also, the only reason he was a "complete zero" until he landed in New England was because Miami refused to use him. When he was given opportunities, he consistently and dramatically outperformed both a former pro bowler (Marty Booker) and a guy who was at one point hailed as a top-10 WR talent (Chris Chambers) despite just being a second/third year player cursed with the motliest collection of signal callers in the league (the two headed A.Jay Fiedler monster and the Daunte Culpepper Experience).
 
On a team where everyone is terrified of being burned deep by Randy Moss, a good possession WR like Wes Welker can put up huge stats. That doesn't make him an elite receiver in a vacuum. There's a reason why he went undrafted, was released by the Chargers, and never exceeded 687 yards for the Dolphins. He does one thing exceptionally well: get open underneath. That's all he can really do.

I think he's a classic example of right player, right system. On 90% of the teams in the league he's Davone Bess, like he was on the Dolphins.

 
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CARLOS609 said:
do you guys think it would be a good or a bad idea to trade Rodgers? There are some decent QB's like Rivers, Cutler, Eli, McNabb, Kolb, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Matt Ryan, Vince Young and even Favre can producefor example you can trade Rodgers for Eli and a RB or some picks or some thing like that.BUT Rodgers was money EVERY week last year....
I don't think you can just say "a RB" and get solid response.I wouldn't deal Rodgers for anything but a Top 5 RB/WR. (You can probably stretch it a little in a 4 pass TD league, but not much)
 
CARLOS609 said:
do you guys think it would be a good or a bad idea to trade Rodgers?
It's a good idea to trade Rodgers if you can get a return package worth more than Aaron Rodgers. Otherwise, it's not.For me, Rodgers is an uberstud and I'm not moving him unless I get an uberstud in return. He's a core guy that you can jut set-and-forget at the QB position for the better part of the next decade. I'm not moving him unless I'm getting Peterson, MJD, Chris Johnson, Andre Johnson, or Larry Fitzgerald in return. I'd also be willing to part with him for a package containing Brees and a high quality fantasy asset, or a package containing Rivers or Romo and a very high quality fantasy asset. Maybe a Brees/Sidney Rice combo or a Rivers/Ryan Matthews combo. If I already had Brees/Rivers/Romo as my QB2, then I might move Rogers for a pair of studs-but-not-quite-uberstuds, maybe a Miles Austin/1.01, Roddy White/Jamaal Charles, or Jonathan Stewart/Felix Jones package.Barring that, no real need to move him. If you're competitive now, he's the kind of player who'll help you win championships. If you're not competitive now, he's the kind of player who you build around because he'll still be in his prime by the time you finally become competitive.
 
On a team where everyone is terrified of being burned deep by Randy Moss, a good possession WR like Wes Welker can put up huge stats. That doesn't make him an elite receiver in a vacuum. There's a reason why he went undrafted, was released by the Chargers, and never exceeded 687 yards for the Dolphins. He does one thing exceptionally well: get open underneath. That's all he can really do. I think he's a classic example of right player, right system. On 90% of the teams in the league he's Davone Bess, like he was on the Dolphins.
Like I said, I thought he played extremely impressively in 2006. Obviously that play didn't translate to herculean stats, but that doesn't make him a marginal player. Personally, I think the mediocre stats had the teensiest, tiniest bit to do with the fact that his QBs were Joey Harrington, Daunte Culpepper (the year after his injury), and Cleo Lemon, as well as with the fact that the only other target in the passing game was busy putting up an epic 39% catch rate on 154 targets.It's also hardly Welker's only NFL-caliber skill. The guy averages 10+ yards per punt return for his career (with over 200 returns, so it's not a small sample size). He's 0.4 yards per return behind Dante Hall, 1 yards behind Josh Cribbs, 1.1 yards behind Desean Jackson, and 1.2 yards behind Devin Hester. Most importantly, he's the only name on that entire list who has never averaged below 9 yards per return for a single season. I'd say that he has pretty elite punt return skills, so unless "punt returns" and "getting open underneath" are the same skillsets, that's another thing he does exceptionally well.I'm not calling Welker a top 10 WR talent or anything (although the only other guy who could have played his role as well as he did over the last decade, imo, is Brandon Stokley), I'm just taking exception to calling him a "marginal player". Welker is a phenomenal talent. Not in the traditional sense, but in his own unique manner. He's far from an easily replaceable cog. It's not like you can just slot Julian Edelman in for Welker and expect similar results, any more than you could just slot Brandon Tate in for Randy Moss and expect similar results.
 
Do you really have Rodgers that far above Rivers that you think the difference in them is a guy like Matthews? Over the last two years Rivers actually has more passing touchdowns and only about 100 fewer passing yards than Rodgers, and he did it all on basically 150 less attempts.

Obviously Rodgers has the rushing advantage, but as we've seen with lots of guys before that doesn't tend to last forever with quarterbacks. Plus Rodgers spent the last two years in a pass heavy offense with Rivers in a run heavy one, and there's no guarantee things will stay that way.

 
Do you really have Rodgers that far above Rivers that you think the difference in them is a guy like Matthews? Over the last two years Rivers actually has more passing touchdowns and only about 100 fewer passing yards than Rodgers, and he did it all on basically 150 less attempts.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?act=Post&CODE=02&f=2&t=283290&qpid=11841039Obviously Rodgers has the rushing advantage, but as we've seen with lots of guys before that doesn't tend to last forever with quarterbacks. Plus Rodgers spent the last two years in a pass heavy offense with Rivers in a run heavy one, and there's no guarantee things will stay that way.
I like how you just sweep that rushing disparity under the rug. I mean, Rogers only has 400 more rushing yards and 8 more rushing TDs over the last two years. That kind of rushing advantage doesn't just "disappear". If you look at the mobile QBs (not the Mike Vicks, but the McNairs, Youngs, Culpeppers, etc), they all maintain their rushing production for 6+ years. Rogers is not rushing at a pace that is at all historically unsustainable. It's not like he's Marc Bulger, scoring a TD for every 20 yards rushing.His production as a first year starter matches anything Rivers has done in his four years as a starter (Rogers = 348, Rivers' best was 351), and his production as a second year starter was almost 60 points higher, still. Rivers is fantastic, but Rogers is younger, he's already better, he has more upside, and he's playing in a scheme that highlights him rather than in a scheme that trades a king's ransom to draft an RB at #12 rather than just turning the reigns completely over to him. Rivers is only a couple of slots behind Rogers, but the difference between players is greater at the top of the list.Besides, I'm not going to make a trade if I think both sides are perfectly even. That's trading for the sake of trading. I'm not motivated to make a trade unless I think I'm getting the better end of the bargain. I might view a package of Rivers and a high-end RB2 as 10% better than just Rogers, but that's what it takes to overcome my inertia and get me to make a move.
 
It's RODGERS.Great observations, but the effectiveness of your message is lowered a bit when you repeatedly misspell his name.

Do you really have Rodgers that far above Rivers that you think the difference in them is a guy like Matthews? Over the last two years Rivers actually has more passing touchdowns and only about 100 fewer passing yards than Rodgers, and he did it all on basically 150 less attempts.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?act=Post&CODE=02&f=2&t=283290&qpid=11841039Obviously Rodgers has the rushing advantage, but as we've seen with lots of guys before that doesn't tend to last forever with quarterbacks. Plus Rodgers spent the last two years in a pass heavy offense with Rivers in a run heavy one, and there's no guarantee things will stay that way.
I like how you just sweep that rushing disparity under the rug. I mean, Rogers only has 400 more rushing yards and 8 more rushing TDs over the last two years. That kind of rushing advantage doesn't just "disappear". If you look at the mobile QBs (not the Mike Vicks, but the McNairs, Youngs, Culpeppers, etc), they all maintain their rushing production for 6+ years. Rogers is not rushing at a pace that is at all historically unsustainable. It's not like he's Marc Bulger, scoring a TD for every 20 yards rushing.His production as a first year starter matches anything Rivers has done in his four years as a starter (Rogers = 348, Rivers' best was 351), and his production as a second year starter was almost 60 points higher, still. Rivers is fantastic, but Rogers is younger, he's already better, he has more upside, and he's playing in a scheme that highlights him rather than in a scheme that trades a king's ransom to draft an RB at #12 rather than just turning the reigns completely over to him. Rivers is only a couple of slots behind Rogers, but the difference between players is greater at the top of the list.Besides, I'm not going to make a trade if I think both sides are perfectly even. That's trading for the sake of trading. I'm not motivated to make a trade unless I think I'm getting the better end of the bargain. I might view a package of Rivers and a high-end RB2 as 10% better than just Rogers, but that's what it takes to overcome my inertia and get me to make a move.
 
Do you really have Rodgers that far above Rivers that you think the difference in them is a guy like Matthews? Over the last two years Rivers actually has more passing touchdowns and only about 100 fewer passing yards than Rodgers, and he did it all on basically 150 less attempts.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?act=Post&CODE=02&f=2&t=283290&qpid=11841039

Obviously Rodgers has the rushing advantage, but as we've seen with lots of guys before that doesn't tend to last forever with quarterbacks. Plus Rodgers spent the last two years in a pass heavy offense with Rivers in a run heavy one, and there's no guarantee things will stay that way.
I like how you just sweep that rushing disparity under the rug. I mean, Rogers only has 400 more rushing yards and 8 more rushing TDs over the last two years. That kind of rushing advantage doesn't just "disappear". If you look at the mobile QBs (not the Mike Vicks, but the McNairs, Youngs, Culpeppers, etc), they all maintain their rushing production for 6+ years. Rogers is not rushing at a pace that is at all historically unsustainable. It's not like he's Marc Bulger, scoring a TD for every 20 yards rushing.His production as a first year starter matches anything Rivers has done in his four years as a starter (Rogers = 348, Rivers' best was 351), and his production as a second year starter was almost 60 points higher, still. Rivers is fantastic, but Rogers is younger, he's already better, he has more upside, and he's playing in a scheme that highlights him rather than in a scheme that trades a king's ransom to draft an RB at #12 rather than just turning the reigns completely over to him. Rivers is only a couple of slots behind Rogers, but the difference between players is greater at the top of the list.

Besides, I'm not going to make a trade if I think both sides are perfectly even. That's trading for the sake of trading. I'm not motivated to make a trade unless I think I'm getting the better end of the bargain. I might view a package of Rivers and a high-end RB2 as 10% better than just Rogers, but that's what it takes to overcome my inertia and get me to make a move.
I think it's fair to say most people would consider a package of Rivers/Matthews as WAY more than 10% better than Rodgers. Can't think of many owners who would make an offer even close to that.
 
Do you really have Rodgers that far above Rivers that you think the difference in them is a guy like Matthews? Over the last two years Rivers actually has more passing touchdowns and only about 100 fewer passing yards than Rodgers, and he did it all on basically 150 less attempts.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?act=Post&CODE=02&f=2&t=283290&qpid=11841039

Obviously Rodgers has the rushing advantage, but as we've seen with lots of guys before that doesn't tend to last forever with quarterbacks. Plus Rodgers spent the last two years in a pass heavy offense with Rivers in a run heavy one, and there's no guarantee things will stay that way.
I like how you just sweep that rushing disparity under the rug. I mean, Rogers only has 400 more rushing yards and 8 more rushing TDs over the last two years. That kind of rushing advantage doesn't just "disappear". If you look at the mobile QBs (not the Mike Vicks, but the McNairs, Youngs, Culpeppers, etc), they all maintain their rushing production for 6+ years. Rogers is not rushing at a pace that is at all historically unsustainable. It's not like he's Marc Bulger, scoring a TD for every 20 yards rushing.His production as a first year starter matches anything Rivers has done in his four years as a starter (Rogers = 348, Rivers' best was 351), and his production as a second year starter was almost 60 points higher, still. Rivers is fantastic, but Rogers is younger, he's already better, he has more upside, and he's playing in a scheme that highlights him rather than in a scheme that trades a king's ransom to draft an RB at #12 rather than just turning the reigns completely over to him. Rivers is only a couple of slots behind Rogers, but the difference between players is greater at the top of the list.

Besides, I'm not going to make a trade if I think both sides are perfectly even. That's trading for the sake of trading. I'm not motivated to make a trade unless I think I'm getting the better end of the bargain. I might view a package of Rivers and a high-end RB2 as 10% better than just Rogers, but that's what it takes to overcome my inertia and get me to make a move.
I think it's fair to say most people would consider a package of Rivers/Matthews as WAY more than 10% better than Rodgers. Can't think of many owners who would make an offer even close to that.
I have Rodgers in two leagues and would trade him for that every day of the week. Don't think I'd get an offer like that though.
 
Do you really have Rodgers that far above Rivers that you think the difference in them is a guy like Matthews? Over the last two years Rivers actually has more passing touchdowns and only about 100 fewer passing yards than Rodgers, and he did it all on basically 150 less attempts.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?act=Post&CODE=02&f=2&t=283290&qpid=11841039

Obviously Rodgers has the rushing advantage, but as we've seen with lots of guys before that doesn't tend to last forever with quarterbacks. Plus Rodgers spent the last two years in a pass heavy offense with Rivers in a run heavy one, and there's no guarantee things will stay that way.
I like how you just sweep that rushing disparity under the rug. I mean, Rogers only has 400 more rushing yards and 8 more rushing TDs over the last two years. That kind of rushing advantage doesn't just "disappear". If you look at the mobile QBs (not the Mike Vicks, but the McNairs, Youngs, Culpeppers, etc), they all maintain their rushing production for 6+ years. Rogers is not rushing at a pace that is at all historically unsustainable. It's not like he's Marc Bulger, scoring a TD for every 20 yards rushing.His production as a first year starter matches anything Rivers has done in his four years as a starter (Rogers = 348, Rivers' best was 351), and his production as a second year starter was almost 60 points higher, still. Rivers is fantastic, but Rogers is younger, he's already better, he has more upside, and he's playing in a scheme that highlights him rather than in a scheme that trades a king's ransom to draft an RB at #12 rather than just turning the reigns completely over to him. Rivers is only a couple of slots behind Rogers, but the difference between players is greater at the top of the list.

Besides, I'm not going to make a trade if I think both sides are perfectly even. That's trading for the sake of trading. I'm not motivated to make a trade unless I think I'm getting the better end of the bargain. I might view a package of Rivers and a high-end RB2 as 10% better than just Rogers, but that's what it takes to overcome my inertia and get me to make a move.
You had a good post going until the bolded. I disagree that Rodgers is better than Rivers and particularly that he has more upside. Rivers has comparable passing numbers in the past two years despite throwing ~150 fewer attempts. IMO Rodgers essentially reached his upside last season, and we haven't seen Rivers reach his, given that he has never had more than 486 passing attempts. I own Rodgers, and if I could trade him for Rivers and Matthews, or Rivers and something comparable, I'd do that in a second. But I wouldn't expect the Rivers owner to even consider that.
 
Do you really have Rodgers that far above Rivers that you think the difference in them is a guy like Matthews? Over the last two years Rivers actually has more passing touchdowns and only about 100 fewer passing yards than Rodgers, and he did it all on basically 150 less attempts.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?act=Post&CODE=02&f=2&t=283290&qpid=11841039

Obviously Rodgers has the rushing advantage, but as we've seen with lots of guys before that doesn't tend to last forever with quarterbacks. Plus Rodgers spent the last two years in a pass heavy offense with Rivers in a run heavy one, and there's no guarantee things will stay that way.
I like how you just sweep that rushing disparity under the rug. I mean, Rogers only has 400 more rushing yards and 8 more rushing TDs over the last two years. That kind of rushing advantage doesn't just "disappear". If you look at the mobile QBs (not the Mike Vicks, but the McNairs, Youngs, Culpeppers, etc), they all maintain their rushing production for 6+ years. Rogers is not rushing at a pace that is at all historically unsustainable. It's not like he's Marc Bulger, scoring a TD for every 20 yards rushing.His production as a first year starter matches anything Rivers has done in his four years as a starter (Rogers = 348, Rivers' best was 351), and his production as a second year starter was almost 60 points higher, still. Rivers is fantastic, but Rogers is younger, he's already better, he has more upside, and he's playing in a scheme that highlights him rather than in a scheme that trades a king's ransom to draft an RB at #12 rather than just turning the reigns completely over to him. Rivers is only a couple of slots behind Rogers, but the difference between players is greater at the top of the list.

Besides, I'm not going to make a trade if I think both sides are perfectly even. That's trading for the sake of trading. I'm not motivated to make a trade unless I think I'm getting the better end of the bargain. I might view a package of Rivers and a high-end RB2 as 10% better than just Rogers, but that's what it takes to overcome my inertia and get me to make a move.
You had a good post going until the bolded. I disagree that Rodgers is better than Rivers and particularly that he has more upside. Rivers has comparable passing numbers in the past two years despite throwing ~150 fewer attempts. IMO Rodgers essentially reached his upside last season, and we haven't seen Rivers reach his, given that he has never had more than 486 passing attempts. I own Rodgers, and if I could trade him for Rivers and Matthews, or Rivers and something comparable, I'd do that in a second. But I wouldn't expect the Rivers owner to even consider that.
LOL... Rivers is not close to Rodgers.... Thats like comparing Andre Johnson and Sidney Rice

 
Do you really have Rodgers that far above Rivers that you think the difference in them is a guy like Matthews? Over the last two years Rivers actually has more passing touchdowns and only about 100 fewer passing yards than Rodgers, and he did it all on basically 150 less attempts.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?act=Post&CODE=02&f=2&t=283290&qpid=11841039

Obviously Rodgers has the rushing advantage, but as we've seen with lots of guys before that doesn't tend to last forever with quarterbacks. Plus Rodgers spent the last two years in a pass heavy offense with Rivers in a run heavy one, and there's no guarantee things will stay that way.
I like how you just sweep that rushing disparity under the rug. I mean, Rogers only has 400 more rushing yards and 8 more rushing TDs over the last two years. That kind of rushing advantage doesn't just "disappear". If you look at the mobile QBs (not the Mike Vicks, but the McNairs, Youngs, Culpeppers, etc), they all maintain their rushing production for 6+ years. Rogers is not rushing at a pace that is at all historically unsustainable. It's not like he's Marc Bulger, scoring a TD for every 20 yards rushing.His production as a first year starter matches anything Rivers has done in his four years as a starter (Rogers = 348, Rivers' best was 351), and his production as a second year starter was almost 60 points higher, still. Rivers is fantastic, but Rogers is younger, he's already better, he has more upside, and he's playing in a scheme that highlights him rather than in a scheme that trades a king's ransom to draft an RB at #12 rather than just turning the reigns completely over to him. Rivers is only a couple of slots behind Rogers, but the difference between players is greater at the top of the list.

Besides, I'm not going to make a trade if I think both sides are perfectly even. That's trading for the sake of trading. I'm not motivated to make a trade unless I think I'm getting the better end of the bargain. I might view a package of Rivers and a high-end RB2 as 10% better than just Rogers, but that's what it takes to overcome my inertia and get me to make a move.
You had a good post going until the bolded. I disagree that Rodgers is better than Rivers and particularly that he has more upside. Rivers has comparable passing numbers in the past two years despite throwing ~150 fewer attempts. IMO Rodgers essentially reached his upside last season, and we haven't seen Rivers reach his, given that he has never had more than 486 passing attempts. I own Rodgers, and if I could trade him for Rivers and Matthews, or Rivers and something comparable, I'd do that in a second. But I wouldn't expect the Rivers owner to even consider that.
LOL... Rivers is not close to Rodgers.... Thats like comparing Andre Johnson and Sidney Rice
Wrong. Rodgers is probably the consensus #1 dynasty QB, Rivers is top-5. AJ is the #1 dynasty WR......and many people wouldn't even put Rice in the top-15. So I really don't find your comparison compelling.
 
As already pointed out... the only way Rodgers is a lot more valuable than Rivers in dynasty is if you think he's going to have an extra 50-60 attempts every year.

In the last two years (6pts/25yds):

Rivers has averaged .675 pts/attempt

Rodgers has average .684 pts/attempt

So if Rivers and Rodgers were both to have 540 attempts they'd be separated by a grand total of five points. And while Rivers may never have 500 attempts in his career and Rodgers may never have fewer, I wouldn't be willing to bet the 1.02 or another core piece on it.

 
As already pointed out... the only way Rodgers is a lot more valuable than Rivers in dynasty is if you think he's going to have an extra 50-60 attempts every year. In the last two years (6pts/25yds):Rivers has averaged .675 pts/attemptRodgers has average .684 pts/attemptSo if Rivers and Rodgers were both to have 540 attempts they'd be separated by a grand total of five points. And while Rivers may never have 500 attempts in his career and Rodgers may never have fewer, I wouldn't be willing to bet the 1.02 or another core piece on it.
I think Rodgers will have an extra 50-60 attempts every year not to mention his tremendous advantage as a running QB. Rogers also has a more talented core of young receivers whereas Gates is about to reach the end of his prime in San Diego.Rodgers is far more valuable than Rivers in Dyansty leagues, IMO. There's no way I'd trade him for Eli and a generic RB. You'd have have to put a pretty good RB together with Rivers for me to consider it.
 
As already pointed out... the only way Rodgers is a lot more valuable than Rivers in dynasty is if you think he's going to have an extra 50-60 attempts every year. In the last two years (6pts/25yds):Rivers has averaged .675 pts/attemptRodgers has average .684 pts/attemptSo if Rivers and Rodgers were both to have 540 attempts they'd be separated by a grand total of five points. And while Rivers may never have 500 attempts in his career and Rodgers may never have fewer, I wouldn't be willing to bet the 1.02 or another core piece on it.
I think Rodgers will have an extra 50-60 attempts every year not to mention his tremendous advantage as a running QB. Rogers also has a more talented core of young receivers whereas Gates is about to reach the end of his prime in San Diego.Rodgers is far more valuable than Rivers in Dyansty leagues, IMO. There's no way I'd trade him for Eli and a generic RB. You'd have have to put a pretty good RB together with Rivers for me to consider it.
Fair enough if you think that Rodgers is going to get the extra attempts for the rest of his career. We just disagree.But the pts/att numbers I posted includes Rodgers rushing FF Pts. So Rivers is apparently killing him purely in terms of throwing the ball.
 
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