I think Sproles is a good compare for McCluster and KC is gearing up to use Dexter the way SD should have been using Sproles all along - 10-15 touches in space a game with an emphasis on passes.
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Dynasty Rankings (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
shader
Footballguy
The other thing you have to factor in with McCluster is that he was a running back in college. I know alot of people think that he's the next "Wes Welker", but Wes Welker was a receiver for a prolific passing offense in college. McCluster was a running back. Big difference.
Yeah, he caught alot of passes, but screens, and flareouts are alot different than playing the slot.
I'm not saying he can't make the adjustment, I'm just saying that he's never done it before.
Yeah, he caught alot of passes, but screens, and flareouts are alot different than playing the slot.
I'm not saying he can't make the adjustment, I'm just saying that he's never done it before.
Here's my problem with the McClusters, Wolfes and Sproles of the world. If they don't juke someone out of their socks, they are going down with an arm tackle. That may work great on returns where they have more space to work with and can find a seam, but in a normal offenseive setting where you have 11 defenders within 10-15 yards of the line of scrimmage, they need to get very lucky to keep an offense on schedule.Sigmund Bloom said:McCluster's straight line speed in a track setting is somewhat average, but his pad speed is not, and that is amplified by truly exceptional phone booth quicks, maybe the best in the league from day one. You don't have to be able to leave people in the dust if you can juke them out of their shoes.Fear & Loathing said:Right, DeSean Jackson is the second-fastest player in the NFL . . . and gives CJ2K a run for his money when it comes to game speed. McCluster has average speed, and he's not nearly big enough to take Harvin's hits in the slot.az_prof said:This is my concern too. Desean Jackson pretty much broke the mold but can it be broke again, even smaller? He's 10 pounds more lighter. I suspect McCluster will have a bigger NFL impact than fantasy. He will contribute but I am skeptical that he will be a major star.Fear & Loathing said:Steed said:Whether you want to talk about weight or build, how many successful NFL RB/slot receivers have McCluster's body type? He'd have to be a dominant talent to break the mold, and I'm not seeing dominance here.
Lash
Footballguy
avoid McCluster at your own risk
we are supposed to think outside the box here, i am surprised that the following here who didnt bash CJ3's size or Harvin not having a real position, will point out size here as the #1 factor for overlooking Dexter
(I know he is way smaller but i'd feel better if you guys were saying "his vision is average", or "his quickness is lacking for someone that small" or "his hands are like stone")
he passes the "eye test" for whatever that means
i agree he will be a better football player than fantasy player, and i'm not saying pick him above the big 4 or Benn/Bradford either but disregard size and watch the UT/UM film
i watched my beloved Vols defense pound National Champion Alabama's vaunted running game
and against that same defense, mccluster looked like that stud in pop warner who gains 400 yards on 7 carries
monte kiffin had NO answer
now i am not down on the field to see the "quit" in players eyes so maybe for whatever reason other than their FG kicking unit, UT stayed up for 60min against Bama and quit against UM who knows
but i know i saw a football player that day, whereas when i watched the Bama game, the Bama RBs looked meh
we are supposed to think outside the box here, i am surprised that the following here who didnt bash CJ3's size or Harvin not having a real position, will point out size here as the #1 factor for overlooking Dexter
(I know he is way smaller but i'd feel better if you guys were saying "his vision is average", or "his quickness is lacking for someone that small" or "his hands are like stone")
he passes the "eye test" for whatever that means
i agree he will be a better football player than fantasy player, and i'm not saying pick him above the big 4 or Benn/Bradford either but disregard size and watch the UT/UM film
i watched my beloved Vols defense pound National Champion Alabama's vaunted running game
and against that same defense, mccluster looked like that stud in pop warner who gains 400 yards on 7 carries
monte kiffin had NO answer
now i am not down on the field to see the "quit" in players eyes so maybe for whatever reason other than their FG kicking unit, UT stayed up for 60min against Bama and quit against UM who knows
but i know i saw a football player that day, whereas when i watched the Bama game, the Bama RBs looked meh
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
You have got to be kidding me.Ok, az prof, please point out where I compared the "talent levels" of Clarett and Marshall. I'll thank you in advance not to find that. Both guys are idiots. That's the comparison.Undermines my credibility? Please. Stop coming around here if you think I'm spouting nonsense. You need to stop trying to compare V-Jax and Marshall because we've been over this several times, and there is no comparison. Marshall has a laundry list of both off-field and on-field issues. Jackson does not. Feel free to start your own website/rankings, and then rank V-Jax as a character risk.az_prof said:
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Sigmund Bloom said:
I think the WR eligibility and gameplan is huge for McCluster. If McCluster was going to be used as a RB, his value would be negligible. But a WR who gets 7 targets and 3 rushes a game, and who can break a long TD 4 or 5 times a year, is going to be fantasy-relevant.
McCluster was drafted as a WR. The whole Wolfe comparison loses all merit when you look at where and what position he was drafted at. You don't have to have Percy Harvin's build to be an effective slot receiver. If anything, Harvin is breaking the mold for slot receivers vs. your Welkers, Jason Avants, Davone Besses, Harry Douglases, etc.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
That goes both ways, so be careful. You guys want to gloss over his actions from last summer like it didn't happen even though everyone one here, even the supporters, were devaluing him in training camp. That's fine. I understand that short memories come into play when a player you like does well. Just be sure to show your face in here next time he lands in jail, or the coach's doghouse, or quits on his team, or throws a fit.Re: A point where I retract. Let me say this again slowly: I . . . don't . . . value . . . this . . . player . . . highly. I'm not going to rank him as an elite dynasty receiver if I don't believe he is elite. You guys feel free to rank him however you want in your own personal rankings.King of the Jungle said:So how many 100 catch seasons will it take for him to get a boost in your rankings? Are you going to wait until he is 34 years to say.... "I told you so...............he just is not top ten material." You have taken a stand against the guy and I respect that, however there has to come a point where you detract.Fear & Loathing said:Billy Ball Thorton said:
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Big Ben certainly didn't drop from top-5 all the way down to 12 because he can't play.squistion said:
squistion
Footballguy
Oh, I see...I figured that the devaluaton was due to his 4-6 game suspension. Anyway, nice to know that he finally qualifies for the amorphous knucklehead category.Big Ben certainly didn't drop from top-5 all the way down to 12 because he can't play.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
One interesting thing in his contract is that very little money is actually truly guaranteed. $6 mil of the $12.5 mil guaranteed is only "guaranteed" if he doesn't get suspended by the league in the first 3 years of the contract. Also, if the team decides to cut him next April and another team signs him and pays him at least $3 mil, the Dolphins are off the hook for 2011 and the rest of the contract. If he acts a fool, he loses a whole lot of that huge paycheck he just got. Also, we know why he did what he did in training camp. He has no reason to complain about salary for the foreseeable future. Of course we've seen people/athletes with lots to lose continue to do dumb stuff.
valhallan
Footballguy
Due to this horrid rookie class, I had to consider McCluster at 1.11 but ended up passing and haven't regretted it for a second. I've seen this story already with Darren Sproles, who had a significantly more impressive college career in a conference nearly as tough as the SEC. After two franchise tags and ample chance to prove he's a weekly contributor, I have a running back on my bench with no trade value that will only crack my lineup in a desperation play. Not interested in going down that road again.
Further, I'm not particularly impressed with this regime in Kansas City. They got rid of a legit veteran in Tony Gonzalez and brought in loads of over-the-hill types like Bobby Engram and Mike Brown. Tyson Jackson was a reach and the rest of the '09 draft stunk. Matt Cassel always looked like a system guy but they traded a high pick and paid him anyway. And to top it all off, the coaching staff is chock full of Pioli cronies now. As such, I'm not putting much emphasis on McCluster's draft status. Aside from Eric Berry falling in their lap, I haven't seen anything from this crew to make me think they know how to evaluate talent and draft for value.
Further, I'm not particularly impressed with this regime in Kansas City. They got rid of a legit veteran in Tony Gonzalez and brought in loads of over-the-hill types like Bobby Engram and Mike Brown. Tyson Jackson was a reach and the rest of the '09 draft stunk. Matt Cassel always looked like a system guy but they traded a high pick and paid him anyway. And to top it all off, the coaching staff is chock full of Pioli cronies now. As such, I'm not putting much emphasis on McCluster's draft status. Aside from Eric Berry falling in their lap, I haven't seen anything from this crew to make me think they know how to evaluate talent and draft for value.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Not sure why SSOG and F&L are being nailed to the cross about the knucklehead factor. Yea, some idiots eventually learn their lesson and become the quality contributors their franchises hoped they would be. Not all of them do though. Not taking that into account is absolutely silly. If there's a choice between 5 equitable talents and one has a laundry list of past character issues then that guy is at the bottom of the list. It's all about risk...
TitansFan10
Footballguy
I never understood this at all.... People using rankings by someone on the internet as the ONLY possible value for a player. I use your rankings, and I value them, and I enjoy the discussion, and I think your smarter at this than me. BUT, if I felt so strongly about a player then I'd just mentally tweak him up despite your rankings. It's not like the players actual performance will hinge on whether or not I can talk you into bumping my player up a few spots... Sheesh people, just mentally insert Marshall into the rankings where you see him and voila you are ok. These are someone elses rankings so have some interesting discussion, or challenge the issue in a polite way before moving on. No need to get all bent out of shape over this.That goes both ways, so be careful. You guys want to gloss over his actions from last summer like it didn't happen even though everyone one here, even the supporters, were devaluing him in training camp. That's fine. I understand that short memories come into play when a player you like does well. Just be sure to show your face in here next time he lands in jail, or the coach's doghouse, or quits on his team, or throws a fit.Re: A point where I retract. Let me say this again slowly: I . . . don't . . . value . . . this . . . player . . . highly. I'm not going to rank him as an elite dynasty receiver if I don't believe he is elite. You guys feel free to rank him however you want in your own personal rankings.King of the Jungle said:So how many 100 catch seasons will it take for him to get a boost in your rankings? Are you going to wait until he is 34 years to say.... "I told you so...............he just is not top ten material." You have taken a stand against the guy and I respect that, however there has to come a point where you detract.Fear & Loathing said:Billy Ball Thorton said:Did you trust the opinion of **** Vermeil when he brought in Lawrence Phillips? Did you trust the opinion of Mike Shanahan when he drafted Maurice Clarett in the third round? Did you trust the opinion of Jerry Reese and Tom Coughlin over some dude on the internet when they let Plaxico Burress hang around? GMs and team presidents make mistakes when they get desperate for an intriguing talent. All players keep getting chances until they can't play anymore. That doesn't make them any less risky. For the record, I've never told any other owner to devalue Brandon Marshall for being an idiot. I just rank him how I value him, and there's no way I'd build my roster around a player that I don't trust. I can do much better for a WR1.
Tau837
Footballguy
Just trying to unpack this comment on Sproles a bit.I assume by touches you are referring to carries and receptions. Is that right? That is, you don't mean targets instead of receptions, and you aren't including special teams touches... right?Given that assumption, 10-15 offensive touches per game would be 160 to 240 combined carries and receptions in a 16 game season. Sproles' career high was last season, when he had 138 (93 carries and 45 receptions). Do you really think San Diego should have been giving him 22 to 102 more offensive touches per season? And, if so, is that on top of the 60+ special teams touches he gets every year, or do you think he shouldn't be returning kickoffs and punts?Who do you think the Chargers should have taken them from? Tomlinson? Gates? Jackson? I suppose one could make the argument that they should have taken them from LT, given that he wasn't good last year... but his performance last season is what made that clear, and that same poor performance is also presumably a big reason why Sproles had a career high in offensive touches. I don't see giving fewer targets to Gates... he has been one of the best TEs in the league for years. I don't see giving fewer targets to Jackson... he is already underutilized IMO.Then there is the part where you mention giving him all of those touches in space. Targets fit that criteria, but what about his carries? Do you think San Diego should have given him fewer attempts at inside runs and more running to the outside? I guess my problem with this is that I think the Chargers have done a reasonably good job of using him in space for the offensive touches he has gotten.I say all this not to pick on you, but because I think people tend to throw out statements like the one you made about Sproles here without appreciating the implications of the statement.Sigmund Bloom said:
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
I'm starting to wonder if F & L went Delonte West on a few of your Moms. Lighten up people.
TitansFan10
Footballguy
Over the last few days I have been wondering if an impostor is posting under Bloom's name...
SSOG
Moderator
What does it matter that the story is a year old? The point was to show Marshall's "checkered past". When last I checked, a player's past is still his past even if a year goes by. It's got a lot of accusations... but accusations are all it takes for Goodell to suspend a player (see: Roethlisberger, Ben). The point is that one more ALLEGED incident is probably going to leave Marshall missing half a season or more... and the sheer bulk of the ALLEGED incidents in Marshall's past make him a serious risk for more such incidents in the future. Even if you ignore all of the "innuendo and accusations" and focus solely on the facts, it's very damning. For instance, it is a *FACT* that police have been called to an incident involving Brandon Marshall FOURTEEN TIMES. It is a fact that Brandon Marshall has had two restraining orders taken out against him. It is a fact that Marshall has been formally charged with simple battery and driving under the influence. It is a fact that Marshall has been seen in a violent dispute with his current fiance. And the article didn't even mention the time Brandon Marshall put his arm through a TV while he was wrestling his brother in a hotel room, or the fact that Marshall has been publicly called out by his QB multiple times, or the fact that Marshall was JUST suspended by his head coach on suspicion of faking an injury, or the reports that Mike Shanahan was planning on running a Santonio Holmes-style firesale on Marshall last offseason before he wound up getting fired, or the report that his teammates cheered when he was traded. If anything, the article was *VERY* fair and objective, avoiding allegations and innuendos and sticking almost entirely to police reports (with the exception being Walker's interview).It's possible that Brandon Marshall keeps his nose clean and goes on to enjoy a HoF career... but he's ranked below where his skills might otherwise dictate because of the risk involved. Similarly, it's possible that Miles Austin surpasses Michael Irvin as the greatest WR in Dallas history, but fantasy owners downgrade him because of the risk he presents (i.e. the fear that he's a "one year wonder"). Frank Gore is ranked below where his skills might otherwise dictate because owners are afraid of the risk presented by his age. Fantasy owners are all about mitigating risk, yet they seem to be shocked when someone treats the risk of suspension on par with the risk of age or the risk of a small sample.As for Vincent Jackson... I've discussed that before. Personally, I find driving drunk to be absolutely deplorable. A friend of mine was orphaned by a drunk driver. I assure you that I have very strong feelings on the subject. With that said, though... I'm a realist. If the statistics are to be believed, a massive percentage of the American population drives drunk. My own experiences make it pretty easy to believe the statistics, too. I don't view driving drunk as a character problem as much as I view it as a culture problem. I don't think it makes someone "low-character" any more than driving without a license or driving without insurance. Stupid? Without question. Irresponsible? Unbelievably so. "Poor character"? Not so much. Getting busted a second time for the same offense was ridiculously stupid on VJax's part, but sometimes people do ridiculously stupid things. A second DUI would leave me worried that VJax was an alcoholic... if his court-mandated alcohol counselor hadn't already come out and said that VJax wasn't an alcoholic. Plus, VJax has a lot of points in his favor on the character chart to help balance out the points against him. I think his character concerns are overblown, and he doesn't even belong on the same page of a thread as Brandon Marshall. After all, everything VJax has done, Marshall has done, too... but Marshall also brings shoplifting, resisting arrest, domestic violence, and a slew of other baggage to the table. He's VJax + Peter Warrick + Randy McMichaels, with a little bit of Terrell Owens thrown in for good measure.az_prof said:
I'm really sick of that "100 catch season" stuff. A catch is not a meaningful statistic on its own. Yards and TDs are meaningful, and Marshall has yet to finish higher than 9th based on the strength of his yards and his TDs. I think all of the "Marshall should be a top 5 dynasty WR" talk might be a bit more compelling if Marshall actually had a top 5 fantasy finish on his resume. Why rank him above Roddy White or Miles Austin when those two guys are already outperforming Marshall *AND* carry less risk (in addition to the "knucklehead" risk, Marshall also carries risk because he's switching teams)?Besides, it's not like F&L is saying he's useless. F&L has him at 11th in his rankings. That's a very high ranking! I've got him at 10th in mine. I view him as a valuable fantasy asset... just not quite as valuable as most other people. I think there's this impression that I hate the guy and I'd never acquire him at any cost, and that couldn't be any further from the truth.As a matter of fact... in my dynasty league, one guy owns Calvin, Colston, Marshall, and Crabtree. I approached him about buying Crabtree or Colston (figuring one of those guys was his "WR4"), but as informed that he viewed Marshall as his WR4. So for the past week, I've been engaged in trade talks that will likely result in me becoming the new Brandon Marshall owner. All because I found someone who was lower on him than I was. And, to be honest, I'd be thrilled to trot Brandon Marshall out every week as my WR2 or WR3. Like I said, he's #10 in my rankings, which means he'd be one of the best WR2s in the league (and far-and-away the best WR3). Just because I'm lower on him than most doesn't mean I have anything against him, or that I'd never acquire him if the price was right.King of the Jungle said:
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
for putting this into perspective. That's exactly what the rankings are there for. I've always assumed that everyone is using them as a base-point and then adjusting based on their scoring systems, roster rules, and personal feelings. They're certainly not from God's lips to my ears.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Sproles would have been the #26 WR in my non-PPR league last year if he had WR eligibility (right behind Mike Sims-Walker). McCluster will have WR eligibility.McCluster won't get 93 carries unless Charles gets hurt. But he's likely to get more than 45 receptions. If you think he's only as good as Sproles, that still sounds like a #3 fantasy WR to me.edit to add: I don't blame anyone for taking Mike Williams or a garbage-tier RB over him. Whether he has more upside than Mike Williams or another lower-round WR like Price or Damian Williams is debatable.
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valhallan
Footballguy
Fair points. However, I do question whether he'll get that many receptions. I think it's much easier for a RB to pick up catches when plodding DLs and linebackers are responsible for chasing him down in the flat. McCluster will be lining up in the slot and working the middle where corners and safeties will often be responsible for him, which means he'll need to run crisp routes (there has to be a learning curve) and hope Cassel can find him (very much in question).
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EBF
Footballguy
In PPR leagues (pretty much the only kind I play in), the only WRs who can match Marshall's scoring over the past three years are Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, and Reggie Wayne. Considering that he's younger than all of those guys, I think it's reasonable to rank him as a top 5 dynasty WR. He has been $$$ every season for three years running and he's still only 26. Having said that, I'm not really interested in rehashing the Marshall debate, as it's a dead horse in this thread.
squistion
Footballguy
I dunno know about that...those 100 points for catches I got for Marshall in my PPR league seemed pretty meaningful to me.
Seriously, for comparsion purposes, do you think that rushing for 100 yards is any more meaningful than 99? I am not saying it is, but that is a threshold used to determine achieving a certain level of performance. Not that I agree with the concept but sportswriters and football fans do seem to value benchmarks like 100 catches or 100 yards.
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They absolutely should have been taking touches away from LT over the last two season and giving them to Sproles. While the 60+ special teams touches help their case, they never seemed to gameplan for Sproles special quickness and acceleration to be a regular part of the offense. Even when LT went down, they tried to run Sproles between the tackles behind a banged up line instead of trying to stretch the defense laterally and give him more carries designed to get to the corner and passes in the flat. That's what I mean by not enough touches in space, when having Sproles as big part of the running game was a necessity, they just used him like a typical tailback instead of tailoring the playcalling to his abilities.
Is it the LenDale stuff? The Titans seemed to agree with me, he's just not worth much any more...Over the last few days I have been wondering if an impostor is posting under Bloom's name...
Sebowski
Footballguy
I suck at evaluating my own players sometimes. I'm having a hard time figuring out what I'd be willing to trade Donnie Avery for. His 20 point games scare me into not wanting to sell hm too low, but his stinkers tell me I shouldn't expect too much for him. I really need to upgrade my RBs though, and I think I need to deal a WR to do it.
PPR league. Start 3-4WRs. Here are the rest of my WRs
Fitz
White
MSW
Britt
Bryant
Jacoby
RBs: (Start 1-2)
Mendy
T.Jones
Portis
Bush
Washington
PPR league. Start 3-4WRs. Here are the rest of my WRs
Fitz
White
MSW
Britt
Bryant
Jacoby
RBs: (Start 1-2)
Mendy
T.Jones
Portis
Bush
Washington
Are you for real with the above comparisons? I dont remember either singing one of the richest deals for their positions . Marshall has produced what did Maurice Clarett ever do.. Seriously you use Maurice as an example...??????????That idiot factor has not kept Marshall from being one of the top scoring WR in fantasy the last 3 years either.edit to add ... Yeah I trust Bill Parcells over some dude on the internet that is pushing his agenda.Fear & Loathing said:Billy Ball Thorton said:Did you trust the opinion of **** Vermeil when he brought in Lawrence Phillips? Did you trust the opinion of Mike Shanahan when he drafted Maurice Clarett in the third round? Did you trust the opinion of Jerry Reese and Tom Coughlin over some dude on the internet when they let Plaxico Burress hang around? GMs and team presidents make mistakes when they get desperate for an intriguing talent. All players keep getting chances until they can't play anymore. That doesn't make them any less risky. For the record, I've never told any other owner to devalue Brandon Marshall for being an idiot. I just rank him how I value him, and there's no way I'd build my roster around a player that I don't trust. I can do much better for a WR1.
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TitansFan10
Footballguy
This adds new meaning to the term "Rat Pack".Are you for real with the above comparisons? I dont remember either singing one of the richest deals for their positions . Marshall has produced what did Maurice Clarett ever do.. Seriously you use Maurice as an example...??????????That idiot factor has not kept Marshall from being one of the top scoring WR in fantasy the last 3 years either.edit to add ... Yeah I trust Bill Parcells over some dude on the internet that is pushing his agenda.Fear & Loathing said:Billy Ball Thorton said:
munchkin
Footballguy
Parcell's likes the horses too; so he's not afraid to gamble. The contract hedges his bet against Marshall but it also points out that he doesn't trust him either. If Fitzy, R White, Wayne, AJ or other of the top receivers were available do you think they would sign that type of contract? Marshall is a risk; he knows it, his agent knows it and the Dolphin's management knows it. They all came together to put together a deal they can live with (the agent gets his money up front). Of course the Dolphins can't do anything about the picks they gave up.Are you for real with the above comparisons? I dont remember either singing one of the richest deals for their positions . Marshall has produced what did Maurice Clarett ever do.. Seriously you use Maurice as an example...??????????That idiot factor has not kept Marshall from being one of the top scoring WR in fantasy the last 3 years either.edit to add ... Yeah I trust Bill Parcells over some dude on the internet that is pushing his agenda.Fear & Loathing said:Billy Ball Thorton said:Did you trust the opinion of **** Vermeil when he brought in Lawrence Phillips? Did you trust the opinion of Mike Shanahan when he drafted Maurice Clarett in the third round? Did you trust the opinion of Jerry Reese and Tom Coughlin over some dude on the internet when they let Plaxico Burress hang around? GMs and team presidents make mistakes when they get desperate for an intriguing talent. All players keep getting chances until they can't play anymore. That doesn't make them any less risky. For the record, I've never told any other owner to devalue Brandon Marshall for being an idiot. I just rank him how I value him, and there's no way I'd build my roster around a player that I don't trust. I can do much better for a WR1.
Tau837
Footballguy
I respectfully disagree.Taking your original statement literally, the Chargers would have had to have given Sproles 70 to 150 more touches in 2008. As I pointed out previously, the Chargers didn't really know how much LT had declined until they saw it on the field last season. In 2008, LT had more than 1500 total yards and 12 TDs. Yes, he was in decline, but he was also coming off a career full of big seasons... meanwhile, entering 2008 Sproles had never had more than 37 carries or 10 catches in a season, so perhaps they weren't certain what to expect.In 2008, his change of pace role was quite effective, as he averaged 5.4 ypc and 11.8 ypr in addition to his special teams excellence. Then in 2009 they gave him more touches, and look what happened. His averages declined across the board (ypc, ypr, yards per punt return, yards per kickoff return). I'm not sure increasing his touches even further is necessarily going to lead to better production.Furthermore, I think you minimize the circumstances. Sproles had 40% of his carries in September when Tomlinson got hurt... and when the starting center was out injured and at least one other rookie was starting on the OL. He had 37 carries for 90 yards during that period (2.4 ypc) and 56 carries for 253 yards (4.5 ypc) the rest of the season. Isn't it possible that it was much more due to circumstances than misuse?Anyway, this is a tangent. IMO many people don't realize how 10-15 touches per game adds up, which was my point. I would be extremely surprised to see McCluster get close to that many touches on offense.
kremenull
Footballguy
Preach On!Yeah, I think the devaluation of Marshall is valid to a point, as I have devalued him quite a bit up until now. But moving forward, I have him very highly ranked and wouldn't be afraid of the (potential) risk in taking this guy. But to each his own on as it's nothing major to quibble on and on about.So is Dez Bryant considered at least somewhat of a knucklehead risk at this point? Skill set is outstanding but immaturity, work-ethic still may be in question, for such a leap of faith in the rankings, eh?I never understood this at all.... People using rankings by someone on the internet as the ONLY possible value for a player. I use your rankings, and I value them, and I enjoy the discussion, and I think your smarter at this than me. BUT, if I felt so strongly about a player then I'd just mentally tweak him up despite your rankings. It's not like the players actual performance will hinge on whether or not I can talk you into bumping my player up a few spots... Sheesh people, just mentally insert Marshall into the rankings where you see him and voila you are ok. These are someone elses rankings so have some interesting discussion, or challenge the issue in a polite way before moving on. No need to get all bent out of shape over this.That goes both ways, so be careful. You guys want to gloss over his actions from last summer like it didn't happen even though everyone one here, even the supporters, were devaluing him in training camp. That's fine. I understand that short memories come into play when a player you like does well. Just be sure to show your face in here next time he lands in jail, or the coach's doghouse, or quits on his team, or throws a fit.Re: A point where I retract. Let me say this again slowly: I . . . don't . . . value . . . this . . . player . . . highly. I'm not going to rank him as an elite dynasty receiver if I don't believe he is elite. You guys feel free to rank him however you want in your own personal rankings.King of the Jungle said:So how many 100 catch seasons will it take for him to get a boost in your rankings? Are you going to wait until he is 34 years to say.... "I told you so...............he just is not top ten material." You have taken a stand against the guy and I respect that, however there has to come a point where you detract.Fear & Loathing said:Billy Ball Thorton said:
massraider
Footballguy
He wasn't comparing the players. He was giving an example of people smarter than 'some dude on the internet' that guessed wrong, or took a shot on a character concern, and got burned. I don't get why the character concerns are brought up, and people start rattling off his stats. You can't put up stats if you are suspended, and Marshall has reached the point where all his mulligans are used up. SSOG listed his shortcomings above. Read that list, and tell me why you don't downgrade a guy like that, just based on the risk that he might miss more than half the fantasy season for you next time he and his girlfriend have a loud argument.
And I dead serious when I wonder if Miami is really the place for this guy to live a quiet NFL life. The cops there seem to love busting pro athletes.
This is a really important point. A player used wholly or partially like a RB but eligible as a WR in fantasy can be a very good WR2/3. To me, this is like a league that rewards return yards: you see mediocre WRs become startable because the return yards make them reliable scorers.My problem is that I don't expect McCluster to get 7 targets and 3 rushes a game. I think he will still need to learn to be a WR, which will limit his targets. On the other hand, maybe he's Julian Edelman. On the rushes, 3 might be reasonable if we see an end around, a moving Wildcat snap, a reverse from Charles/Jones and maybe 1-2 conventional carries.Sigmund Bloom said:I think the WR eligibility and gameplan is huge for McCluster. If McCluster was going to be used as a RB, his value would be negligible. But a WR who gets 7 targets and 3 rushes a game, and who can break a long TD 4 or 5 times a year, is going to be fantasy-relevant.
McCluster was drafted as a WR. The whole Wolfe comparison loses all merit when you look at where and what position he was drafted at. You don't have to have Percy Harvin's build to be an effective slot receiver. If anything, Harvin is breaking the mold for slot receivers vs. your Welkers, Jason Avants, Davone Besses, Harry Douglases, etc.
But I can't come up with a good estimate of his use. Would love to get thoughts on McCluster's likely usage next season and in the future because he could be a nice steal as a WR if he gets enough action as a runner.
Are you for real with the above comparisons?Fear & Loathing said:Billy Ball Thorton said:
GMs and team presidents make mistakes when they get desperate for an intriguing talent. All players keep getting chances until they can't play anymore. That doesn't make them any less risky.
For the record, I've never told any other owner to devalue Brandon Marshall for being an idiot. I just rank him how I value him, and there's no way I'd build my roster around a player that I don't trust. I can do much better for a WR1.
I dont remember either singing one of the richest deals for their positions . Marshall has produced what did Maurice Clarett ever do.. Seriously you use Maurice as an example...??????????
That idiot factor has not kept Marshall from being one of the top scoring WR in fantasy the last 3 years either.
edit to add ... Yeah I trust Bill Parcells over some dude on the internet that is pushing his agenda.
What agenda is he trying to push? F&L is nice enough to come here and explain why he has players ranked where he does. I dont always agree with some of his rankings, but overall he has the best dynasty rankings i have seen anywhere. People asked why he has Marshall ranked where he does, and he answered. Its not his problem you and others dont like his answer.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
Are you for real with the above comparisons?Fear & Loathing said:Billy Ball Thorton said:
GMs and team presidents make mistakes when they get desperate for an intriguing talent. All players keep getting chances until they can't play anymore. That doesn't make them any less risky.
For the record, I've never told any other owner to devalue Brandon Marshall for being an idiot. I just rank him how I value him, and there's no way I'd build my roster around a player that I don't trust. I can do much better for a WR1.
I dont remember either singing one of the richest deals for their positions . Marshall has produced what did Maurice Clarett ever do.. Seriously you use Maurice as an example...??????????
That idiot factor has not kept Marshall from being one of the top scoring WR in fantasy the last 3 years either.
edit to add ... Yeah I trust Bill Parcells over some dude on the internet that is pushing his agenda.
risk vs reward... there's risks with every player - injury on/off the field, stupidity on/off the field, enviromental disasters on/off the field?, etc. (ok maybe not the environmental disasters...)some players are riskier than others... take the blinders off, just because they're on your team doesn't mean they're immune to these risks.
none of us can see into the future, but it's a good idea to include the probability of these risks when considering players and their ranks. you can choose to ignore them, but dont be surprised when they happen! (especially when it's happened before... multiple times)
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rzrback77
Footballguy
McCluster came to Ole Miss as a WR. He played almost exclusively as a WR until midway through his junior season. He has quite a bit of experience playing that position.
TitansFan10
Footballguy
Are you for real with the above comparisons?Fear & Loathing said:Billy Ball Thorton said:Did you trust the opinion of **** Vermeil when he brought in Lawrence Phillips? Did you trust the opinion of Mike Shanahan when he drafted Maurice Clarett in the third round? Did you trust the opinion of Jerry Reese and Tom Coughlin over some dude on the internet when they let Plaxico Burress hang around?
GMs and team presidents make mistakes when they get desperate for an intriguing talent. All players keep getting chances until they can't play anymore. That doesn't make them any less risky.
For the record, I've never told any other owner to devalue Brandon Marshall for being an idiot. I just rank him how I value him, and there's no way I'd build my roster around a player that I don't trust. I can do much better for a WR1.
I dont remember either singing one of the richest deals for their positions . Marshall has produced what did Maurice Clarett ever do.. Seriously you use Maurice as an example...??????????
That idiot factor has not kept Marshall from being one of the top scoring WR in fantasy the last 3 years either.
edit to add ... Yeah I trust Bill Parcells over some dude on the internet that is pushing his agenda.
LOLOLOL
dmac37
Footballguy
I think we will see McCluster as a player who's ADP will be a lot higher in August than it is right now in all drafts-rookie, redraft and dynasty. Size is a major concern but if there is a player that can overcome the size issue he may be one to do it. He may be one of those small quick players that nobody can get a good clean shot at and has already proven to be a good inside runner. Two areas of importance we will keep hearing this offseason are his football IQ and his quicks / speed in pads on the field when it's game time.
squistion
Footballguy
Yeah, but a lot of people around here seem to act like they can.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Yes, anticipation is the key to success in Dynasty leagues. It's what all of us are attempting to do here.
SSOG
Moderator
Regarding McCluster... he was really impressive in SEC action last year, and his pedigree (high second round) is seriously legit. I don't know how he'll translate, but I wouldn't have any problem burning a late first or early second on him.
As has been said at least twice in the last page, PPR leagues are a horse of a different color.
I get why 100 is a meaningful milestone. Humans have 10 fingers, 100 = 10 x 10, the frequency of occurrence makes it a decent benchmark for a "good" game or a "great" season. I'm just saying I don't get why catches, in particular, are always held up as the be-all, end-all of WR talent. If one WR has 80 catches for 1200 yards, and another WR has 120 catches for 800 yards, which WR had the better season? In my mind, it's clearly and unequivocally the first guy, no question about it whatsoever. In 2003, Tomlinson finished 4th in the league in receptions with 100... but he only had 725 receiving yards. Would you say that Tomlinson was one of the top 5 receivers (strictly receivers, mind you) in the league that year? Because his reception totals sure suggest that he is. And people for years would bring up that 100 catch season while completely ignoring seasons like Garner's 91/941 the year before. That seems silly to me. In 2003, San Diego had no one else to throw to and the offensive line was terrible, so Tomlinson caught an obscene amount of garbage and did very little with it. A mind boggling 74% of his receptions failed to produce a new set out downs. San Diego treated him like New Orleans used to treat Bush, throwing him junk on 3rd and long that padded his stats while doing absolutely nothing useful for the offense. And yet, despite this, people think of it as the greatest receiving season in Tomlinson's career (and one of the best RB receiving seasons of the decade), simply because the sheer volume of garbage receptions he got.Anyway, Marshall is very similar. People get blinded by the fact that the first number in his stat line is so consistently large, and lose sight of the fact that the second and third numbers are so average compared to his elite peers. He's 8th in receiving yards over the last two years, behind Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, and Reggie Wayne (the obvious ones)... but also behind Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, and Smiff South! Vincent Jackson has essentially matched him point-for-point over that span (339 for Marshall, 330 for Jackson), and as I've outlined above has just a fraction of the "knucklehead quotient". I don't think it's at all controversial to put Marshall behind Andre, Fitz, Calvin, Roddy, Jennings, and VJax (all of whom have a track record of success, have produced as much over the last two years, and are on the "right" side of 30), which leaves Marshall at 7th, at best. And then there are the one-hit wonders like Rice, Crabtree, Desean, and Austin, or the older studs like Moss and Wayne. Like I said, there is a *LOT* of competition in the second tier of dynasty WRs, and Marshall's production on the field is not enough to put him above those peers... but his production *OFF* the field certainly gives reason to put him below his peers.I dunno know about that...those 100 points for catches I got for Marshall in my PPR league seemed pretty meaningful to me.Seriously, for comparsion purposes, do you think that rushing for 100 yards is any more meaningful than 99? I am not saying it is, but that is a threshold used to determine achieving a certain level of performance. Not that I agree with the concept but sportswriters and football fans do seem to value benchmarks like 100 catches or 100 yards.
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
I'd just like to say that I've semi-neutered my WR corps in two leagues by trading for "knuckleheads." I gave up quite a bit to get Plax about 3 weeks before he shot himself. You would think I'd learn from that disaster, but no, I traded for Holmes about a month before he failed his latest drug test. It's not exactly easy fielding a competitive team when you give up 1st round picks and young talent and get nothing in return.
az_prof
Footballguy
Agree: in PPR those 100 catches in the left hand column mean a LOT.Overall, I want to clarify that I don't think SSOG or FL have an "agenda." And I almost never would accuse someone of skewing what they say because they have a player on their roster. First, if someone likes a player then it seems likely that they would have him on a lot of their teams. And conversely, if they don't, it seems likely they would trade him or otherwise not own him. So, that's really a red herring in my book. But we all have blinders to certain players for whatever reason--could be a guy that we are rate too highly because of whatever reason--we saw them play a lot in college or we just happen to like their style of play--and other players we don't like--could be that we don't like their attitudes or the teams they play for or their style of play. And this can blind us sometimes to their value. In the end, if you are going to use a knucklehead factor I think you need to use it consistently and I think you need to be careful to separate out innunendo and rumor from facts and convictions and suspensions. And you also have to avoid the "dump on the guy" fallacy. This is where when people have a negative point of view they start looking for all sorts of negatives, many of which are questionable. In the case of Big Ben, if you don't like his issues with women--fine. But when people start to bring up his riding his bike without a helmet as if its a federal offense, then I start to say "quit piling on." Be consistent and don't let off the players you like (V Jax....Bryant...) and be careful of giving any credit to things that really aren't verified and that really are not that serious.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Parcell's likes the horses too; so he's not afraid to gamble. The contract hedges his bet against Marshall but it also points out that he doesn't trust him either. If Fitzy, R White, Wayne, AJ or other of the top receivers were available do you think they would sign that type of contract? Marshall is a risk; he knows it, his agent knows it and the Dolphin's management knows it. They all came together to put together a deal they can live with (the agent gets his money up front). Of course the Dolphins can't do anything about the picks they gave up.Are you for real with the above comparisons? I dont remember either singing one of the richest deals for their positions . Marshall has produced what did Maurice Clarett ever do.. Seriously you use Maurice as an example...??????????That idiot factor has not kept Marshall from being one of the top scoring WR in fantasy the last 3 years either.edit to add ... Yeah I trust Bill Parcells over some dude on the internet that is pushing his agenda.Fear & Loathing said:Billy Ball Thorton said:
This NFL GM vs. some "dude on the internet" red herring is ridiculous. It's a non-starter. None of us in here have ever claimed to know more than an NFL GM. It would be crazy to think so. But that's not how this hobby works. Were "internet dudes" out of their minds for predicting that JaMarcus Russell was a bust when Al Davis, one of the most successful owner/GMs in NFL history, drafted him at No. 1 overall? Were "internet dudes" wrong for predicting that one of the best GMs of the past decade, Ozzie Newsome, was making a mistake in drafting Kyle Boller? We all second-guess NFL GMs. It doesn't mean any of us know more than they do, nor are we pretending to.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Very reasonable. Thanks, az_prof.But allow a very simple reiteration here. I have outlined and explained and re-explained what I think goes into being a "knucklehead." You have either ignored my qualifications for a knucklehead, or you simply don't agree with my qualifications. And it's fine if you don't agree with my qualifications. But don't ask me to hold Vincent Jackson to your standard for being a knucklehead when he doesn't come close to meeting my own. Who is Bryant? Antonio? I think he's a major idiot. Oh, I see. It's Dez. The guy who, to my knowledge, hasn't had a single run-in with the law and dropped in the draft because he was tardy for a couple of practices. I have very few concerns about Dez Bryant, and there's simply no comparison with Brandon Marshall's checkered history.
az_prof
Footballguy
The Dez Bryant situation is an interesting example. First, i was mistaken: I knew he had been suspended by NCAA and thought it was marijauna. Turns out it was for lying to NCAA investigators about meeting with Deion Sanders.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog...rn=ncaaf,194672
This is an interesting case though because on the one hand it sounds like he didn't do anything, yet he received a serious punishment from the NCAA. And why did he lie if he wasn't doing anything? Because he THOUGHT he was doing something bad? Well, there is a lot of double guessing one can do, and we tend to do it when the name is Marshall. We could ask if maybe he lied because he was doing something wrong like using PEDS or some other banned substance. It's speculation though so I won't do it. I'll give him a pass.
I also defended him when he was questioned about his mother. It's true that if she is a bad influence that is not good for him, but I think you have to address HIS behavior and give him a pass for those around him.
So, if this is all there is and if there isn't anything more to that NCAA suspension, then Dez should not be downgraded. But I would like to know more about the suspension: did the NCAA ever issue an announcement? Reading what Dez and his coaches and Deion say about it isn't exactly balanced information.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog...rn=ncaaf,194672
This is an interesting case though because on the one hand it sounds like he didn't do anything, yet he received a serious punishment from the NCAA. And why did he lie if he wasn't doing anything? Because he THOUGHT he was doing something bad? Well, there is a lot of double guessing one can do, and we tend to do it when the name is Marshall. We could ask if maybe he lied because he was doing something wrong like using PEDS or some other banned substance. It's speculation though so I won't do it. I'll give him a pass.
I also defended him when he was questioned about his mother. It's true that if she is a bad influence that is not good for him, but I think you have to address HIS behavior and give him a pass for those around him.
So, if this is all there is and if there isn't anything more to that NCAA suspension, then Dez should not be downgraded. But I would like to know more about the suspension: did the NCAA ever issue an announcement? Reading what Dez and his coaches and Deion say about it isn't exactly balanced information.
That's not the only concern with Dez (I'm not overly concerned with the Deion thing)- people have said that he has a poor work ethic, and that he'd routinely be late for meetings, practices, and even on game day. He's undoubtedly talented, but he'll need to turn that around if he's going to reach his potential.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
There are reports to the contrary as well.The tardiness sounds a lot like Jermichael Finley's 2009 season. Far from ideal, but maybe a sign of immaturity for 22-year-old as opposed to a sign that he destined to be a character concern.
From all of the reports I've seen -- and I've seen a lot of reports doing news shifts over the past four or five months -- the hand-wringing on Dez Bryant may be the most misguided for any player of recent memory. At the heart of it is basically nothing more than tardiness. You'll find plenty of people who also say, "You know what, this is a good kid. The Deion Sanders thing was ridiculously overblown, and he can't be blamed for his mother's history. In fact, he's done well to walk the straight and narrow considering his background."
Of course. I was just pointing out that it's not just the suspension that some people are concerned about. It's something to consider, maybe it comes into play, maybe it doesn't. I do know a couple of teams "supposedly" took him completely off of their draft board because of it. Doesn't mean they were right, but some people felt pretty strongly about it. Time will tell.
