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Fear & Loathing

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On the Wayne VALUE subject, I ended up trading him for a 2010 First RD Pick & a player.What # pick & type of player (It's a PPR DYNASTY) would you guys consider "fair" value for Wayne?Both as a seller or buyer.It is a first year league & I'd say my team is a mix of contending/young....I'll state what I GOT later (don't want this to turn into what I should have done, etc...), but more what you all perceive WAYNES' value to be compared to this years rookie class.

If it wasn't a top 3 pick, then I would not do it unless the other player was a top prospect.
OK - It was the 1.03 & Hines Ward....My thinking was that hopefully in a PPR FORMAT Ward could put up similar #'s to Wayne the next 2 years (a dropoff, but hopefully not substantial) and I needed a young RB (or Bryant, by some miracle if he fell there) to pair with Stewart & Benson (we start 3).I had noticed the same thing as Anthony had regarding the second half of the year (Garcon basically had the same # of targets) with Wayne and there are a LOT of mouths to feed there. I was "happy" with the trade because I thought it helped my team but I think the other guy was happy also (It is a competitive league & there aren't these slamdunk type trades I see posted here). The 1.01 was out of the question (he wouldn't even consider it) & the 1.02 wanted Wayne AND player(s), picks....Just one league but I was trying to show where his value was there right now.
Dynasty value wise, I believe you got a great deal, as I wouldn't give up a Top 4 selection in this draft plus Ward for Wayne under any scenario. That being the case, I can see how an owner may think that a player like Wayne could be the missing ingredient (immediate Top 12 likelihood) to a title run based on the makeup of his roster. If that's the case, then maybe it helps both parties. I'd still heavily favor the 2010 1.03 + Ward........

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To be fair to Jude, the Marshall stories did go a bit over the top. The claim that "I'm just trying to provide current news articles" is pretty transparent, as I've been following this thread for a long time and don't ever recall seeing such a barrage of story after story all basically saying the same thing, especially with little "I told you so" comments attached to the end of them.That said, it's perfectly understandable as it did happen at a time right after we were discussing Marshall's off the field stuff and did fall right in line with the point that F&L was originally making. We all like it when we're right and when something like that comes up so soon (even though the jury is far from out on this one) there's no shame in tooting our own horns a bit.Besides, it's F&L's thread and he's put a lot of work into it, so a few "I told you so's" are good for the soul, and sometimes well deserved.That said, it did wreak mildly of "neener neener neener" and I don't think anything Jude said was any more abrasive than about 400 other things that have been said in this thread without getting 18 people jumping down someone's back.

I've about had it with the Brandon Marshall talk. Seriously. And WTF are you talking about with the "I told you so" comments? From where I stand, there certainly seems like there's a contingent on here that would like to continually question his ranking but have no interest in listening to the answer. The issue was already on the table, and I linked to a couple of articles that were relevant to the conversation that was ongoing. Go back a few pages. I was asked specifically about Marshall's ranking, as I have been quite a bit. Before I even answered, a couple of half-wits piped in with their own feelings on the subject. It wasn't me doing the rehashing or dead-horse beating. If the Marshall stories are getting "over the top," perhaps his apologists should quit steering the conversation in that direction.Frankly, this has grown tiresome and pointless. I don't care if you clowns think Marshall is god's gift to football. That's your prerogative. It's my prerogative to think otherwise.
The funniest part is that you have him ranked at No. 11 - it's not like you've buried him at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean. People seem overly sensitive when it comes to Marshall for some reason.

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This may seem like an odd question, but what are your guy's thoughts on the Jets defense from a dynasty perspective?Generally, defenses don't hold any value because they're too difficult to predict. But with the Rex Ryan connection, a young shutdown corner, and what we saw of the defense last year, is this Jets defense akin to the Ravens defense from the early 2000's that was reliably dominant from year to year? Because something like that does hold value.What would people give up for a defense like that in a dynasty league. Just consider the defense here, not special teams.

Personally I think they can be a dominant defense from an NFL perspective over the next couple of seasons at least - but it's hard to predict fantasy success as in most leagues TDs are a big part of what makes a defense a better than average fantasy contributor and as we know it's hard to predict defensive TDs.I would never pay much to land a defense in a dynasty (or even a redraft), but I'd be pretty happy if I had teh Jets defense rostered. Edited by Dr. Octopus

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I wouldn't mind discussing Vernon Davis if anyone is interested.Pros:YoungTalentedHas already shown he can put up monster numbers.Cons:He had an unusually high TD total last year. Will be difficult to repeat year in and year out.Singletary seems committed to the run. Two offensive lineman and a big back added through the draft.Alex SmithMy leagues only start 1 TE, so they simply don't carry a lot of value. I guess what I'm asking, is if people think Davis is an uberstud or not? I feel that he's a top 5 TE for sure, but top 5 TE's don't win championships. Do you guys feel that Davis will dominate the TE position like Gates once did, or are there just too many good TE's in the league now? Do you think he's a sell, hold, buy low?

My thought process on Vernon Davis mirrored yours when I was trying to rank tight ends recently. To answer your questions, I don't think he'll dominate the position in Gates fashion. And I do agree with your sentiment that there are just too many good tight ends in the league right now. I think he's a hold considering his age and talent level. Edited by Fear & Loathing

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The thing about late 1st-2nd round rookie picks is that they're overrated...until they're not. Eventually one of those picks is going to become a Maurice Jones-Drew/Greg Jennings/Sidney Rice/Aaron Rodgers. I like to keep my picks whenever possible because I like to play the superstar lottery. It's definitely true that most of the players you select will never become consistent contributors for your FF team, but they don't necessarily have to.

The beautiful thing about young prospects is that they'll be valued like consistent contributors BEFORE they reach that level if they merely show the potential to maybe get there someday. Consider the lofty trade prices of guys like Beanie Wells, Jeremy Maclin, Kevin Kolb, and Mike Wallace vs. their actual achievements on an NFL football field. 2-3 of those guys will probably disappoint in the long run, but there's a good sell window right now because there's inevitably at least one owner in your league who thinks each of those guys is legit. This happens with a lot of rookies who ultimately flop (Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, Michael Bennett, William Green), so just looking at the long term success rate is misleading when you talk about the value of draft picks.

As for Reggie Wayne, he's definitely a good candidate to "acquire and hold." I would say the same thing about Chad Ochocinco (who's basically the exact same player). If you acquire one of these guys, you have to plan on keeping him until he fades away because his trade value has already suffered as a result of his age. I agree that players like this, who can reasonably be expected to contribute for 2-3 years, are good buy low candidates for contenders. However, we have the benefit of hindsight when we cite guys like Rice, Bruce, Mason, and Galloway as examples to prove that WRs can be productive deep into their 30s. Some players seem to hit the wall sooner. Torry Holt fell off a cliff in a hurry and Eric Moulds is another guy who seemingly became crap overnight. There's some risk of that with the older guys, but with modern technology and nutrition being so good, I won't be surprised if we continue to see a lot of star receivers performing well up to age 34-35. I think Mason and Ward might finally be done. Driver too. Wayne, Ochocinco, S. Smith, and Santana Moss are the new guys who might fit this mold over the next 3-4 years.

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The thing about late 1st-2nd round rookie picks is that they're overrated...until they're not. Eventually one of those picks is going to become a Maurice Jones-Drew/Greg Jennings/Sidney Rice/Aaron Rodgers. I like to keep my picks whenever possible because I like to play the superstar lottery. It's definitely true that most of the players you select will never become consistent contributors for your FF team, but they don't necessarily have to.

I've never said you can't find great talents in the late first or second. My biggest reason for the distaste is that the swing-and-hit rate doesn't come close to matching the swing-and-miss rate because we just don't know enough about these college players until they start playing in the NFL.

Anecdotally, it does seem like the talent in that area has gotten better in the last few years. When I first came to the opinion that late first-round picks were severely overvalued, it was because I couldn't believe people were drafting Ryan Moats, Sinorice Moss, Taylor Jacobs, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, J.P. Losman, and Jason Campbell in that range.

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The thing about late 1st-2nd round rookie picks is that they're overrated...until they're not. Eventually one of those picks is going to become a Maurice Jones-Drew/Greg Jennings/Sidney Rice/Aaron Rodgers. I like to keep my picks whenever possible because I like to play the superstar lottery. It's definitely true that most of the players you select will never become consistent contributors for your FF team, but they don't necessarily have to.

I love trading next year's picks during the first couple months of the season. If you're a contending team, you're probably getting 1.6 or 1.7 value for a 1.10 to 1.12 pick. There's a nice window through mid November where building teams will give you a lot for a future pick and don't really care where in the 1st that pick will be, and that piece is a big boost to a title run.But when the draft eventually comes around, the value usually isn't there for a late 1st. It's harder to get top dollar when an actual name can be connected to the pick. That is, if someone knows all the 2nd tier RBs and 1st tier WRs will be gone and they'll only get Golden Tate or McCluster at 1.11, they're not going to sell the farm for a "1st round pick". Value is closer to what they really are, an unproven player with potential. At that point, you start to trust your own scouting and just sit on the pick.

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Speaking of young TEs emerging and what their ceilings are, what do people think about Zach Miller (Oakl)? I have him and I like him but somehow I can't quite envision him as a top 3 TE. I also have Gates and if I really thought Miller was about to stand up and take a place in that elite group of TEs, I would trade Gates. But I can't quite get myself to do it, which is an indication that I just don't have faith in Miller to ever be elite. I think he is talented, but not uber talented. I like the change in QB for Oakland I can see Miller becoming a TE5 this season. But I just don't think he is that elusive or physically talented to become a great after the catch guy. I do think Vernon Davis could become the next generation of elite TE (if he can keep his head shrunk enough that he listens to coaches), but not sure that Miller will join him.

What do other people think?

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The thing about late 1st-2nd round rookie picks is that they're overrated...until they're not. Eventually one of those picks is going to become a Maurice Jones-Drew/Greg Jennings/Sidney Rice/Aaron Rodgers. I like to keep my picks whenever possible because I like to play the superstar lottery. It's definitely true that most of the players you select will never become consistent contributors for your FF team, but they don't necessarily have to.

I love trading next year's picks during the first couple months of the season. If you're a contending team, you're probably getting 1.6 or 1.7 value for a 1.10 to 1.12 pick. There's a nice window through mid November where building teams will give you a lot for a future pick and don't really care where in the 1st that pick will be, and that piece is a big boost to a title run.But when the draft eventually comes around, the value usually isn't there for a late 1st. It's harder to get top dollar when an actual name can be connected to the pick. That is, if someone knows all the 2nd tier RBs and 1st tier WRs will be gone and they'll only get Golden Tate or McCluster at 1.11, they're not going to sell the farm for a "1st round pick". Value is closer to what they really are, an unproven player with potential. At that point, you start to trust your own scouting and just sit on the pick.
:goodposting: I've almost never got any of my own rookie picks by the middle of October. Selling a "Round 1 pick from XXX" always seems to carry a lot more weight than after the season when it actually turns into something tangible like "Rookie pick 1.11". Plus you get the benefit of using the brand new Greg Jennings-type player you just used it to acquire, usually making it even later in the round.

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To be fair to Jude, the Marshall stories did go a bit over the top. The claim that "I'm just trying to provide current news articles" is pretty transparent, as I've been following this thread for a long time and don't ever recall seeing such a barrage of story after story all basically saying the same thing, especially with little "I told you so" comments attached to the end of them.That said, it's perfectly understandable as it did happen at a time right after we were discussing Marshall's off the field stuff and did fall right in line with the point that F&L was originally making. We all like it when we're right and when something like that comes up so soon (even though the jury is far from out on this one) there's no shame in tooting our own horns a bit.Besides, it's F&L's thread and he's put a lot of work into it, so a few "I told you so's" are good for the soul, and sometimes well deserved.That said, it did wreak mildly of "neener neener neener" and I don't think anything Jude said was any more abrasive than about 400 other things that have been said in this thread without getting 18 people jumping down someone's back.

I've about had it with the Brandon Marshall talk. Seriously. And WTF are you talking about with the "I told you so" comments? From where I stand, there certainly seems like there's a contingent on here that would like to continually question his ranking but have no interest in listening to the answer. The issue was already on the table, and I linked to a couple of articles that were relevant to the conversation that was ongoing. Go back a few pages. I was asked specifically about Marshall's ranking, as I have been quite a bit. Before I even answered, a couple of half-wits piped in with their own feelings on the subject. It wasn't me doing the rehashing or dead-horse beating. If the Marshall stories are getting "over the top," perhaps his apologists should quit steering the conversation in that direction.Frankly, this has grown tiresome and pointless. I don't care if you clowns think Marshall is god's gift to football. That's your prerogative. It's my prerogative to think otherwise.
Breathe. Edited by thatguy

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Big fan of this thread and of F&L for consistently following up with people about their questions and comments. He is definitely a lot more patient than I would be. It is truly a shame to me that folks come here just to dog on his rankings. I think that the questions and feed-back are great and that alone makes the thread great for the information shared.

Just wish that the tool factor so prevalent on the board during the season did not find its way here in the off-season.

Thanks F&L for your work both here and on your blog.

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Speaking of young TEs emerging and what their ceilings are, what do people think about Zach Miller (Oakl)? I have him and I like him but somehow I can't quite envision him as a top 3 TE. I also have Gates and if I really thought Miller was about to stand up and take a place in that elite group of TEs, I would trade Gates. But I can't quite get myself to do it, which is an indication that I just don't have faith in Miller to ever be elite. I think he is talented, but not uber talented. I like the change in QB for Oakland I can see Miller becoming a TE5 this season. But I just don't think he is that elusive or physically talented to become a great after the catch guy. I do think Vernon Davis could become the next generation of elite TE (if he can keep his head shrunk enough that he listens to coaches), but not sure that Miller will join him.What do other people think?

The reason you can't quite envision him as a top 3 TE is probably because he'll never become one. I think you realize exactly what he is. And I would never trade Gates for him.

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Speaking of young TEs emerging and what their ceilings are, what do people think about Zach Miller (Oakl)? I have him and I like him but somehow I can't quite envision him as a top 3 TE. I also have Gates and if I really thought Miller was about to stand up and take a place in that elite group of TEs, I would trade Gates. But I can't quite get myself to do it, which is an indication that I just don't have faith in Miller to ever be elite. I think he is talented, but not uber talented. I like the change in QB for Oakland I can see Miller becoming a TE5 this season. But I just don't think he is that elusive or physically talented to become a great after the catch guy. I do think Vernon Davis could become the next generation of elite TE (if he can keep his head shrunk enough that he listens to coaches), but not sure that Miller will join him.What do other people think?

I think now that Miller has a legit QB he could really breakout. However, I do agree that a Vernon Davis-like breakout is a bit much, maybe closer to a Brent Celek-like breakout. I could see Miller putting up 80-1,000-7 which would be good enough for top-5 status, but I don't see him topping double digit TD's anytime soon. I'd probably rank Miller at the top of the second tier of TE's just behind Clark/Witten but just ahead of Winslow/Celek.As for Davis, I think he's the most talented TE in the NFL and this could be the beginning of a Gates-like run, but I really don't trust him very much. I've got him 2nd behind Gates, but ultimately like others have said, the dropoff at TE is nowhere near what it used to be. The difference between TE1 and TE 10 used to be gigantic, now its actually probably smaller than any of the other main positions.

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One exception on late round draft picks is QBs. In my experience, RBs and WRs usually dominate the first several picks, which means the top QBs are typically available late in the first. Guys like Ryan, Stafford, Sanchez, Henne, Flacco, Rodgers, Rivers, Eli, and Roethlisberger have all been available at 1.8 or later in my leagues over the past several years. That is a pretty good group of dynasty QBs.

So IMO the value of those picks is a bit greater if you have a need at QB.

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The reason you can't quite envision him as a top 3 TE is probably because he'll never become one. I think you realize exactly what he is. And I would never trade Gates for him.

The question is if you had him and Gates, would you feel safe enough to trade Gates for help at other positions. And I think that's close to a yes. He had 800 yards each year the past two years with junk at QB. We know JC throws to the TE whenever he feels pressure. I think his track record gives us some security and his new QB gives us some hope for a top 5 or 6 finish for the next couple years. He'll never be elite, but he's pretty sure to be startable each week. Gates is probably seen as the TE-equivalent of Moss. You have to find the right trade partner (top 4 team with need at position) to get top value for him, but I could see that top value being enough to pin my hopes to Zach Miller. If you don't think you'll win this year, I'd pursue this strategy pretty heavily. Zach has a lot in common with Brent Celek - not elite talents but very good receivers and in great situations. I think if you asked the same question and the other half was Celek it'd be an easy yes.

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One exception on late round draft picks is QBs. In my experience, RBs and WRs usually dominate the first several picks, which means the top QBs are typically available late in the first. Guys like Ryan, Stafford, Sanchez, Henne, Flacco, Rodgers, Rivers, Eli, and Roethlisberger have all been available at 1.8 or later in my leagues over the past several years. That is a pretty good group of dynasty QBs.So IMO the value of those picks is a bit greater if you have a need at QB.

Heck, even if you don't. In dynasty, especially with larger leagues, teams hoard QBs, and teams run out of viable starters quick. From a pure value standpoint, 1st round QBs are usually good selections.I think they fall because people reach for the other positions. I mean, Tate and Hardesty consistently go before Bradford, but if you were placing bets on NFL success, who would you bet on?

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One exception on late round draft picks is QBs. In my experience, RBs and WRs usually dominate the first several picks, which means the top QBs are typically available late in the first. Guys like Ryan, Stafford, Sanchez, Henne, Flacco, Rodgers, Rivers, Eli, and Roethlisberger have all been available at 1.8 or later in my leagues over the past several years. That is a pretty good group of dynasty QBs.So IMO the value of those picks is a bit greater if you have a need at QB.

So were Matt Leinart, Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, and JaMarcus Russell. Much like other positions, there are hits and misses and you have to take both into account.

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One exception on late round draft picks is QBs. In my experience, RBs and WRs usually dominate the first several picks, which means the top QBs are typically available late in the first. Guys like Ryan, Stafford, Sanchez, Henne, Flacco, Rodgers, Rivers, Eli, and Roethlisberger have all been available at 1.8 or later in my leagues over the past several years. That is a pretty good group of dynasty QBs.So IMO the value of those picks is a bit greater if you have a need at QB.

So were Matt Leinart, Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, and JaMarcus Russell. Much like other positions, there are hits and misses and you have to take both into account.
True. Wasn't intentionally leaving off the misses. The point is that if you are picking in the late first, several RBs and WRs have likely already been taken. I would expect that your odds of success are often better in drafting the first or second QB taken than the 5th (or higher) RB or 3rd (or higher) WR... and that's just (in this example) at 1.8... it would become even more pronounced the deeper you get into the first round.Obviously there are exceptions, depending on the strength of a given draft, which might be particularly weak at QB or strong at RB or WR. But I think the general point holds - if you have a need at QB, late first round picks are more valuable than if you don't.It's not an amazing revelation, I was just pointing out an exception to the discussion that late first round picks don't have much value. Edited by Just Win Baby

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Late 1st round picks simply aren't worth much in my leagues. If I'm trying to win and need a WR, then I make the trade for Ward. I also play in PPR leagues, and Ward was the #12 WR last year. I guess we can agree to disagree. I don't see late 1sts, especially this year, as a valuable trade chip.

I find that, for 95% of owners, the words "first rounder" have some sort of magic power. I could make a trade that included the 2.01 and get laughed at... then replace it with the 1.12 and it'd go flying through because I upgraded my offer from a 2nd rounder to a 1st rounder. I've gotten to the point where I don't even reference the pick number, I just say "I'll trade you these guys and my first for X".As for Ward... he's not going to be WR12 this year with Ben missing so much time. He's not going to be #12 next year at 35. His high-end WR2 (or even low-end WR1) days are behind him.

The thing about late 1st-2nd round rookie picks is that they're overrated...until they're not. Eventually one of those picks is going to become a Maurice Jones-Drew/Greg Jennings/Sidney Rice/Aaron Rodgers. I like to keep my picks whenever possible because I like to play the superstar lottery. It's definitely true that most of the players you select will never become consistent contributors for your FF team, but they don't necessarily have to. The beautiful thing about young prospects is that they'll be valued like consistent contributors BEFORE they reach that level if they merely show the potential to maybe get there someday. Consider the lofty trade prices of guys like Beanie Wells, Jeremy Maclin, Kevin Kolb, and Mike Wallace vs. their actual achievements on an NFL football field. 2-3 of those guys will probably disappoint in the long run, but there's a good sell window right now because there's inevitably at least one owner in your league who thinks each of those guys is legit. This happens with a lot of rookies who ultimately flop (Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, Michael Bennett, William Green), so just looking at the long term success rate is misleading when you talk about the value of draft picks.

Bush, Maroney, Bennett, and Green were all top-3 draft picks. Yeah, top-3 rookie draft picks hold their value after a slow season... but late firsts generally don't. Look at how much Robert Meachem's value fell after a season or two. Look at Sidney Rice. Eddie Royal already has a great season on the books and look at how low his value is today. Last year was a bit of an aberration because almost all of the rookie first WRs played very well, but look at guys like Glen Coffee. The last two years have provided a lot of late-first talent, but I think that's more exception than trend, and even if they have provided a lot of talent... in many cases, the talent you could have traded for would be greater still. I've traded each of my last 3 late first rounders (plus Antonio Gates), and the net gain was Fitzgerald and Gore. Now, maybe that was an aberration and maybe most leagues don't overvalue late firsts to that extent, but in my experience there's always a guy who will start listening intently when you start throwing first rounders at him.Also, if you're going to consider the lofty trade values, you have to assume that you know who to trade away and who to keep. It's easy to say "trade William Green, keep Rashard Mendenhall", but it's a lot harder to actually do it. If you hold a player to the end of year 2, then it doesn't matter what his trade value was at the end of year 1.

One exception on late round draft picks is QBs. In my experience, RBs and WRs usually dominate the first several picks, which means the top QBs are typically available late in the first. Guys like Ryan, Stafford, Sanchez, Henne, Flacco, Rodgers, Rivers, Eli, and Roethlisberger have all been available at 1.8 or later in my leagues over the past several years. That is a pretty good group of dynasty QBs.So IMO the value of those picks is a bit greater if you have a need at QB.

That's 9 QBs, and only 2.5 of them have been fantasy difference makers... and all 2.5 of those QBs required a long wait to reap the rewards (Rivers/Rodgers/Roeth didn't become quality QB1s until around their 4th season). I'm not saying they were bad picks- on the contrary, they were GREAT picks- I'm just saying you had to wait a long time before you ever reaped the rewards. As for the rest of the names on the list... most of them will never be high-end QB1s. At best, you're getting a guy you can start without being at too much of a disadvantage to the Rodgers/Rivers/Romo/Manning/Brees owners.I think you'd be better off trading a pair of late firsts for Tony Romo (an offer that I suspect many Romo owners would take). It's got a better chance of landing you an elite QB than just spending those two late firsts on rookie QBs, and the payoff is much more immediate.

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SSOG - I know I couldn't get anybody in any of my leagues to give me ROMO for two LATE firsts after the addition of Bryant this offseason, unless they were in SERIOUS rebuild mode. But each league is different.

As for Ward, his RECS. (I play in PPR leagues, like a lot of us do) and YARDS have gone UP in EACH of the last FIVE years (except for 2007 when he missed a few games & even then they basically matched 2006 & were ahead of it on a PPG basis),

culminating in 95/1167/6 last year....That was 7 whole points behind the almighty VJAX (Weeks 1-16) and AHEAD of such guys as Ocho/Boldin/Colston/Jennings/MSW/Holmes/Harvin & CALVIN. Now I don't want to have the whole PPR debate all over again, but the fact is that a LOT of us play in those leagues and Ward definitely still holds value there. As much as those guys? Of course not - AGE matters, we ALL know that. But he doesn't cost anywhere near as much either. Would I rather have two more years of WR2 PPR production from him if I was contending or take a rookie WR @ 1.11 - 2.02? I'm not sure. Those guys in that range don't thrill me this year to be honest. Also, Ben may only miss 4 games and who is Lefty/Dixon/Batch going to throw to then anyway? Precision deep routes to Wallace or Sanders the rookie? That's Bens' strength, not those guys. I don't see why Ward couldn't catch 5 or 6 12-15 yarders from them a game too.

Also, the SAME thing (he's DONE) was said about MASON each of the last THREE years and he definitely had value in PPR formats. Check out the redraft PPR rankings on this site for Ward this year. They may ALL be wrong but maybe not. Holmes leaving could cause Ben to lean on Hines even more for all we know....

Now YOU might be right, but you might not be & he could seriously outperform his PPR ADP again.

Different opinions is what makes this hobby interesting.....

I appreciate your input in this thread SSOG by the way, I just happen to disagree with it here.

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Also, if you're going to consider the lofty trade values, you have to assume that you know who to trade away and who to keep. It's easy to say "trade William Green, keep Rashard Mendenhall", but it's a lot harder to actually do it. If you hold a player to the end of year 2, then it doesn't matter what his trade value was at the end of year 1.

This is key right here. When we draft a guy that high, we tend to fall in love with them. You can't let that happen.I've been fortunate enough to end up with an absolutely loaded team in my main, extremely competitive dynasty league. Apart from extreme amounts of luck, I think the most important thing I've done is a 3-step process.1. Trade for 1st rounders of teams you think will have a high pick early on in the season, before it's a sure-fire top pick2. Trade away any 1st round pick that ends up outside of the 1st tier of rookies (usually the top 3 or so) if I can get fair value for it3. Trade away any player acquired with a 1st round pick that doesn't blow me away in year 1Step 3 is the hardest part. In the last 5 years I've ended up with 4 top three picks, none of which were my own, and none of which I acquired after week 5 of a season. With those picks, I've taken Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and Beanie Wells. I traded Bush and Benson at high value after year 1, and didn't lose a thing from them. Peterson obviously I kept, and I'm holding Beanie as well because he looks like a manbeast out there (if I had taken Moreno last year, I'd be selling). Trading Bush and Benson was the hardest thing to do in this whole process, because I had grown very attached to them (especially Bush), since when I have a hot young rookie I tend to follow them on Sunday Ticket pretty closely. However, it's necessary.I'm sure that occasionally there are guys that don't impress early but end up working out, but not many and certainly not anywhere near the number that didn't pan out. Typically, if a top tier rookie is going to be a stud, you're going to be able to see it immediately. Yet still, the suitors are just lining up to take that formerly top rookie player off your hands at elite value even after he looked bad in year one.Realistically, when a top rookie looks bad early in his career, we all know he's probably not going to work out. But we keep reading this theorycraft on message boards, and putting these logical sounding arguments together that just prove that no, this guy is going to be awesome, just don't give up on him yet. Deep down though, even those guy's biggest supporters have this little feeling that they know things aren't going to work out for him, but just don't want to admit it to themselves. Edited by FreeBaGeL

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3. Trade away any player acquired with a 1st round pick that doesn't blow me away in year 1Step 3 is the hardest part. In the last 5 years I've ended up with 4 top three picks, none of which were my own, and none of which I acquired after week 5 of a season. With those picks, I've taken Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and Beanie Wells. I traded Bush and Benson at high value after year 1, and didn't lose a thing from them. Peterson obviously I kept, and I'm holding Beanie as well because he looks like a manbeast out there (if I had taken Moreno last year, I'd be selling). Trading Bush and Benson was the hardest thing to do in this whole process, because I had grown very attached to them (especially Bush), since when I have a hot young rookie I tend to follow them on Sunday Ticket pretty closely. However, it's necessary.

After year 1 we all tend to come to the same conclusion for RBs, which it makes it difficult to get anything worthwhile for, say, Knowshon Moreno. Personally, I don't like Moreno, but if I owned him I'd probably keep him and hope for a DeAngelo type breakout.QB, WR and TE's are different. In fact, patience at these latter three positions tends to make, more than break, my dynasty rosters.

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SSOG - I know I couldn't get anybody in any of my leagues to give me ROMO for two LATE firsts after the addition of Bryant this offseason, unless they were in SERIOUS rebuild mode. But each league is different.As for Ward, his RECS. (I play in PPR leagues, like a lot of us do) and YARDS have gone UP in EACH of the last FIVE years (except for 2007 when he missed a few games & even then they basically matched 2006 & were ahead of it on a PPG basis),culminating in 95/1167/6 last year....That was 7 whole points behind the almighty VJAX (Weeks 1-16) and AHEAD of such guys as Ocho/Boldin/Colston/Jennings/MSW/Holmes/Harvin & CALVIN. Now I don't want to have the whole PPR debate all over again, but the fact is that a LOT of us play in those leagues and Ward definitely still holds value there. As much as those guys? Of course not - AGE matters, we ALL know that. But he doesn't cost anywhere near as much either. Would I rather have two more years of WR2 PPR production from him if I was contending or take a rookie WR @ 1.11 - 2.02? I'm not sure. Those guys in that range don't thrill me this year to be honest. Also, Ben may only miss 4 games and who is Lefty/Dixon/Batch going to throw to then anyway? Precision deep routes to Wallace or Sanders the rookie? That's Bens' strength, not those guys. I don't see why Ward couldn't catch 5 or 6 12-15 yarders from them a game too.Also, the SAME thing (he's DONE) was said about MASON each of the last THREE years and he definitely had value in PPR formats. Check out the redraft PPR rankings on this site for Ward this year. They may ALL be wrong but maybe not. Holmes leaving could cause Ben to lean on Hines even more for all we know....Now YOU might be right, but you might not be & he could seriously outperform his PPR ADP again.Different opinions is what makes this hobby interesting.....I appreciate your input in this thread SSOG by the way, I just happen to disagree with it here.

:shrug: I pretty much agree with everything you said. Always enjoy F & L, SSOG, and EBF's posts and often put their knowledge to good use. I own two late 1sts in one league and I can't do anything with them. It appears that any pick after the 1.06 smells something awful. About the only 1st round picks that are being moved are the top 4 picks, or late 1st round picks as throw-ins. That said, I've only had one draft so far and maybe the hysteria will pick up come draft day. I'm trying to move both picks for 1st round picks next year, but if nothing comes of it, and I can move one for Ward, yeah, I'm doing it. I've never drafted a QB in the 1st round and the QB position is the one I ignore the most. It's too easy to give chump change for 30+ year old QB's who might play 5 or 6 more years. It's also easy to give up a couple of early 2nd round picks for guys like Eli. I see guys spend mid to late 1st round picks on a rookie QB, and then trade them away the following year for the same pick + maybe a 2nd round pick. To me, that doesn't make sense. (Start 1 QB - 4 points per passing TD and passing yardage is 1/2 of rushing/receiving yardage.) That said, I can see burning a late 1st on Bradford this year due to the overall weakness of the 2nd tier RB's and WR's.

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Geez, I think first rounders definitely have a sort of magic to them. Managed to package 1.12 with Kolb and a 2/3 for Mr. Rodgers.

Best way to approach draft picks is to sell them just before the draft, and then acquire new ones starting August or so, but not too long after October. When everyone's season looks bright, you can go after some picks you want, and flip them a couple months later.

ETA: the biggest thing is to make sure that you don't hold anything too long, and that you view your own 1st as relatively expendable. Typically their value is overinflated until you are seen as a playoff team.

Edited by Instinctive

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3. Trade away any player acquired with a 1st round pick that doesn't blow me away in year 1Step 3 is the hardest part. In the last 5 years I've ended up with 4 top three picks, none of which were my own, and none of which I acquired after week 5 of a season. With those picks, I've taken Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and Beanie Wells. I traded Bush and Benson at high value after year 1, and didn't lose a thing from them. Peterson obviously I kept, and I'm holding Beanie as well because he looks like a manbeast out there (if I had taken Moreno last year, I'd be selling). Trading Bush and Benson was the hardest thing to do in this whole process, because I had grown very attached to them (especially Bush), since when I have a hot young rookie I tend to follow them on Sunday Ticket pretty closely. However, it's necessary.

After year 1 we all tend to come to the same conclusion for RBs, which it makes it difficult to get anything worthwhile for, say, Knowshon Moreno. Personally, I don't like Moreno, but if I owned him I'd probably keep him and hope for a DeAngelo type breakout.
I disagree. Half the people are down on Moreno right now, and half see a guy that was "still learning" that put up 1200 yards and 9 TDs as a rookie and who's only competition going forward is a 31 year old journeyman.The latter sounds nice and logical, but deep down we know that it doesn't change the fact that he's just not that good. Half the people out there suppress what we saw with our eyes and only look at the "logical" latter part of the argument, still value him highly, and that leaves half a league full of buyers if you have him.His value is roughly the same as it was at this point last year, so you essentially have an out, with no loss. Two years from now, it's likely that you'll wish you had taken that out when you had the chance, because there are still plenty of buyers out there. His value may seem "low" as "only" the #12 RB or so right now, but that's about where it was last year, and that's what people that held onto Bush, Benson, McFadden, et all lost out on.

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3. Trade away any player acquired with a 1st round pick that doesn't blow me away in year 1Step 3 is the hardest part. In the last 5 years I've ended up with 4 top three picks, none of which were my own, and none of which I acquired after week 5 of a season. With those picks, I've taken Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and Beanie Wells. I traded Bush and Benson at high value after year 1, and didn't lose a thing from them. Peterson obviously I kept, and I'm holding Beanie as well because he looks like a manbeast out there (if I had taken Moreno last year, I'd be selling). Trading Bush and Benson was the hardest thing to do in this whole process, because I had grown very attached to them (especially Bush), since when I have a hot young rookie I tend to follow them on Sunday Ticket pretty closely. However, it's necessary.

After year 1 we all tend to come to the same conclusion for RBs, which it makes it difficult to get anything worthwhile for, say, Knowshon Moreno. Personally, I don't like Moreno, but if I owned him I'd probably keep him and hope for a DeAngelo type breakout.
I disagree. Half the people are down on Moreno right now, and half see a guy that was "still learning" that put up 1200 yards and 9 TDs as a rookie and who's only competition going forward is a 31 year old journeyman.The latter sounds nice and logical, but deep down we know that it doesn't change the fact that he's just not that good. Half the people out there suppress what we saw with our eyes and only look at the "logical" latter part of the argument, still value him highly, and that leaves half a league full of buyers if you have him.His value is roughly the same as it was at this point last year, so you essentially have an out, with no loss. Two years from now, it's likely that you'll wish you had taken that out when you had the chance, because there are still plenty of buyers out there. His value may seem "low" as "only" the #12 RB or so right now, but that's about where it was last year, and that's what people that held onto Bush, Benson, McFadden, et all lost out on.
Bush never lived up to the hype, but hes been pretty good in PPR's. Cedric Benson is just as valuable now than he ever was, and its far too early to call Mcfadden a bust.

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3. Trade away any player acquired with a 1st round pick that doesn't blow me away in year 1

Step 3 is the hardest part. In the last 5 years I've ended up with 4 top three picks, none of which were my own, and none of which I acquired after week 5 of a season. With those picks, I've taken Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and Beanie Wells. I traded Bush and Benson at high value after year 1, and didn't lose a thing from them. Peterson obviously I kept, and I'm holding Beanie as well because he looks like a manbeast out there (if I had taken Moreno last year, I'd be selling). Trading Bush and Benson was the hardest thing to do in this whole process, because I had grown very attached to them (especially Bush), since when I have a hot young rookie I tend to follow them on Sunday Ticket pretty closely. However, it's necessary.

After year 1 we all tend to come to the same conclusion for RBs, which it makes it difficult to get anything worthwhile for, say, Knowshon Moreno. Personally, I don't like Moreno, but if I owned him I'd probably keep him and hope for a DeAngelo type breakout.
I disagree. Half the people are down on Moreno right now, and half see a guy that was "still learning" that put up 1200 yards and 9 TDs as a rookie and who's only competition going forward is a 31 year old journeyman.

The latter sounds nice and logical, but deep down we know that it doesn't change the fact that he's just not that good. Half the people out there suppress what we saw with our eyes and only look at the "logical" latter part of the argument, still value him highly, and that leaves half a league full of buyers if you have him.

His value is roughly the same as it was at this point last year, so you essentially have an out, with no loss. Two years from now, it's likely that you'll wish you had taken that out when you had the chance, because there are still plenty of buyers out there. His value may seem "low" as "only" the #12 RB or so right now, but that's about where it was last year, and that's what people that held onto Bush, Benson, McFadden, et all lost out on.

Bush never lived up to the hype, but hes been pretty good in PPR's. Cedric Benson is just as valuable now than he ever was, and its far too early to call Mcfadden a bust.

None of them have, or likely will ever have anywhere near the value that you could have gotten for them early on in a dynasty league, when we could recognize that they were very likely to end up as busts. Not even close. But you're making my point for me here. You're trying to create an argument to convince yourself that these guys weren't dynasty busts, when deep down you know that they were. Edited by FreeBaGeL

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3. Trade away any player acquired with a 1st round pick that doesn't blow me away in year 1

Step 3 is the hardest part. In the last 5 years I've ended up with 4 top three picks, none of which were my own, and none of which I acquired after week 5 of a season. With those picks, I've taken Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and Beanie Wells. I traded Bush and Benson at high value after year 1, and didn't lose a thing from them. Peterson obviously I kept, and I'm holding Beanie as well because he looks like a manbeast out there (if I had taken Moreno last year, I'd be selling). Trading Bush and Benson was the hardest thing to do in this whole process, because I had grown very attached to them (especially Bush), since when I have a hot young rookie I tend to follow them on Sunday Ticket pretty closely. However, it's necessary.

After year 1 we all tend to come to the same conclusion for RBs, which it makes it difficult to get anything worthwhile for, say, Knowshon Moreno. Personally, I don't like Moreno, but if I owned him I'd probably keep him and hope for a DeAngelo type breakout.
I disagree. Half the people are down on Moreno right now, and half see a guy that was "still learning" that put up 1200 yards and 9 TDs as a rookie and who's only competition going forward is a 31 year old journeyman.

The latter sounds nice and logical, but deep down we know that it doesn't change the fact that he's just not that good. Half the people out there suppress what we saw with our eyes and only look at the "logical" latter part of the argument, still value him highly, and that leaves half a league full of buyers if you have him.

His value is roughly the same as it was at this point last year, so you essentially have an out, with no loss. Two years from now, it's likely that you'll wish you had taken that out when you had the chance, because there are still plenty of buyers out there. His value may seem "low" as "only" the #12 RB or so right now, but that's about where it was last year, and that's what people that held onto Bush, Benson, McFadden, et all lost out on.

Bush never lived up to the hype, but hes been pretty good in PPR's. Cedric Benson is just as valuable now than he ever was, and its far too early to call Mcfadden a bust.

None of them have, or likely will ever have anywhere near the value that you could have gotten for them early on in a dynasty league, when we could recognize that they were very likely to end up as busts. Not even close. But you're making my point for me here. You're trying to create an argument to convince yourself that these guys weren't dynasty busts, when deep down you know that they were.

Their values have all gone down, or where down at points since they were drafted. Im not sure i would call any of them busts though, except maybe Bush, and thats only in non-PPR. As a matter of fact, i have Benson ranked higher now than i ever did.

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So many of these players that look good now will become busts. If we just look back at this past decade in past drafts look at how many players seemed like perfect fits at the time or headed for stardom.

Look how many 1st round picks in a 12 man rookie draft have been complete busts or only had flashes at best.

Skip 2009 review not enough time passed yet.

2008 Review - some things can still change as only 2 years have passed but as of now here are the picks they went in my draft

1-McFadden (not off to a good start to his career)

3-Forte (great 1st year, bad 2nd year)

6-Kevin Smith (Team already drafted his replacement)

8-James Hardy (yet to do anything)

9-Devin Thomas (it is now or never ?)

12-Limas Sweed (Done ?)

2007

3-Lynch (future of Buffalo short lived)

4-Ginn (drafted too high in my league but OSU fan but still a huge bust)

6-Brandon Jackson (Another RB of the future never got off the ground)

8-D-Jarrett (yikes)

11-Chris Henry (Tenn) (another RB never got off the ground)

12-J-Hill (who ?)

2006

1-Bush

7-Leinart

8-Mike Bell

9-Si Moss

12-Chad Jackson

2005

2-Caddy Williams

3-Ced Benson (probably cut in your league before he became something)

4-JJ Arrington

5-Bry-Edwarsds (1 good year)

7-Troy Williamson

8-M-Clarrett

9-Mike Williams (fitting they went back to back)

10-Alex Smith

11-E-Shelton

12-Mark Clayton

2004

3-Kevin Jones (Det RB of the future once again a bust)

4-Roy Williams (1 good year ?)

5-Chris Perry (1 good run ?)

6-Reggie Williams (1 year of 10 TD's on like 38 catches)

7-Tatem Bell

8-Julies Jones (had 1/2 a good season)

9-M-Jenkins (made 1 heck of catch to help OSU stay unbeaten beating Purdue on 4th down)

10-Lee Evans

12-D-Henderson

2003

1-C-Rogers (where are they now ?)

4-O-Smith

6-Bryant Johnson

8-M-Smith

9-T-Calico

11-Pinner

12-Fargas

2002

1-William Green

2-D-Foster

3-Stallworth

5-Duckett

7-Lelie

8-A-Bryant

9-J-Redd

10-Gaffney

11-Harrington

2001

2-M-Bennett

3-D-Terrell

4-Koren Robinson

5-Vick

6-R-Gardner

7-Barlow

9-F-Mitchell

10-Jackson (Cle) RB

12-A-Thomas (Chi) RB

2000

1-Warrick

4-Dayne

5-Travis Taylor

7-Bubba Franks

9-Travis Prentice

10-JR Redman

12-RJ Soward

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I had an offer of getting Fitzgerald and giving up Vincent Jackson and A-Boldin. I turned the offer down. I think Vincent Jackson is ready to explode and be right up there next to Fitzgerald. Fitz now has an avg QB while Jackson has a stud QB. I also think Boldin is ready to have a big year with a big arm QB like Flacco though Balt does run a little too much near the end zone so I wonder if he can hit double digit TD's. Problem with Boldin he always seems to get hurt.

So what do you think ? I did the right move passing on this offer ? I think V-Jax is a top 5 dynasty WR so I had to pass.

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So many of these players that look good now will become busts. If we just look back at this past decade in past drafts look at how many players seemed like perfect fits at the time or headed for stardom.Look how many 1st round picks in a 12 man rookie draft have been complete busts or only had flashes at best.Skip 2009 review not enough time passed yet.2008 Review - some things can still change as only 2 years have passed but as of now here are the picks they went in my draft1-McFadden (not off to a good start to his career)3-Forte (great 1st year, bad 2nd year)6-Kevin Smith (Team already drafted his replacement)8-James Hardy (yet to do anything)9-Devin Thomas (it is now or never ?)12-Limas Sweed (Done ?)2007 3-Lynch (future of Buffalo short lived)4-Ginn (drafted too high in my league but OSU fan but still a huge bust)6-Brandon Jackson (Another RB of the future never got off the ground)8-D-Jarrett (yikes)11-Chris Henry (Tenn) (another RB never got off the ground)12-J-Hill (who ?)20061-Bush7-Leinart8-Mike Bell9-Si Moss12-Chad Jackson20052-Caddy Williams3-Ced Benson (probably cut in your league before he became something)4-JJ Arrington5-Bry-Edwarsds (1 good year)7-Troy Williamson8-M-Clarrett9-Mike Williams (fitting they went back to back)10-Alex Smith11-E-Shelton12-Mark Clayton2004 3-Kevin Jones (Det RB of the future once again a bust)4-Roy Williams (1 good year ?)5-Chris Perry (1 good run ?)6-Reggie Williams (1 year of 10 TD's on like 38 catches)7-Tatem Bell8-Julies Jones (had 1/2 a good season)9-M-Jenkins (made 1 heck of catch to help OSU stay unbeaten beating Purdue on 4th down)10-Lee Evans12-D-Henderson20031-C-Rogers (where are they now ?)4-O-Smith6-Bryant Johnson8-M-Smith9-T-Calico11-Pinner12-Fargas20021-William Green2-D-Foster3-Stallworth5-Duckett7-Lelie8-A-Bryant9-J-Redd10-Gaffney11-Harrington20012-M-Bennett3-D-Terrell4-Koren Robinson5-Vick6-R-Gardner7-Barlow9-F-Mitchell10-Jackson (Cle) RB12-A-Thomas (Chi) RB20001-Warrick4-Dayne5-Travis Taylor7-Bubba Franks9-Travis Prentice10-JR Redman12-RJ Soward

This list screams home the point of how overvalued rookie picks can be. When you can list about 2/3 of all first round picks as busts/underachievers, then our conclusion shouldn't be "wow, so many draft picks are performing below average." Instead it gives a more realistic viewpoint on what you can expect, and also reinforces that it doesn't make sense to draft much in the late first round. Really, careers like Anthony Thomas, Julius Jones, and Antonio Bryant are about what you should expect with a 1.8-1.10 pick.

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3. Trade away any player acquired with a 1st round pick that doesn't blow me away in year 1

Step 3 is the hardest part. In the last 5 years I've ended up with 4 top three picks, none of which were my own, and none of which I acquired after week 5 of a season. With those picks, I've taken Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and Beanie Wells. I traded Bush and Benson at high value after year 1, and didn't lose a thing from them. Peterson obviously I kept, and I'm holding Beanie as well because he looks like a manbeast out there (if I had taken Moreno last year, I'd be selling). Trading Bush and Benson was the hardest thing to do in this whole process, because I had grown very attached to them (especially Bush), since when I have a hot young rookie I tend to follow them on Sunday Ticket pretty closely. However, it's necessary.

After year 1 we all tend to come to the same conclusion for RBs, which it makes it difficult to get anything worthwhile for, say, Knowshon Moreno. Personally, I don't like Moreno, but if I owned him I'd probably keep him and hope for a DeAngelo type breakout.
I disagree. Half the people are down on Moreno right now, and half see a guy that was "still learning" that put up 1200 yards and 9 TDs as a rookie and who's only competition going forward is a 31 year old journeyman.

The latter sounds nice and logical, but deep down we know that it doesn't change the fact that he's just not that good. Half the people out there suppress what we saw with our eyes and only look at the "logical" latter part of the argument, still value him highly, and that leaves half a league full of buyers if you have him.

His value is roughly the same as it was at this point last year, so you essentially have an out, with no loss. Two years from now, it's likely that you'll wish you had taken that out when you had the chance, because there are still plenty of buyers out there. His value may seem "low" as "only" the #12 RB or so right now, but that's about where it was last year, and that's what people that held onto Bush, Benson, McFadden, et all lost out on.

Great thread and lots of good points.

So Moreno, despite being himself a former 1st round pick and then being drafted as a fantasy 1st rounder and then putting up 1200/9 td's in his rookie year - you guys are recommending sell? Hate to be the numb skull but what are you who say "sell" seeing? So far, the plan looks to be working:

[*]Broncos drafted high.

[*]A fantasy team drafted high

[*]Moreno broke out as a rookie

Was all of this a fluke and he is headed for the crapper? Some are recommending sell while value is still there because they are saying that he doesn't have the goods. So was that the same thing people said about Cedric Benson after his Bears experience or about Mendenhall right before he broke out?

Looking at how the Moreno plan is playing out, what is it the Moreno is lacking that compels people to want to dump him while his "first round" value remains high? And what pray tell, are people in search of if there is an opinion that he does not have the goods after just one very good rookie season? Thanks.

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And what pray tell, are people in search of if there is an opinion that he does not have the goods after just one very good rookie season? Thanks.

I do not think Moreno had a "very good rookie season." When you're outplayed by Correll Buckhalter, you have a ways to go IMO.

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And what pray tell, are people in search of if there is an opinion that he does not have the goods after just one very good rookie season? Thanks.

I do not think Moreno had a "very good rookie season." When you're outplayed by Correll Buckhalter, you have a ways to go IMO.
I don't have a strong opinion on Moreno, but Buckhalter has been over-looked and under-rated his entire career. Guy had two lost seasons early on to injury and then spent a couple of years behind a HOF RB...he's not "just" any ole "journeyman". I wouldn't downgrade any rook too much based on Buck outplaying them.

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I had an offer of getting Fitzgerald and giving up Vincent Jackson and A-Boldin. I turned the offer down. I think Vincent Jackson is ready to explode and be right up there next to Fitzgerald. Fitz now has an avg QB while Jackson has a stud QB. I also think Boldin is ready to have a big year with a big arm QB like Flacco though Balt does run a little too much near the end zone so I wonder if he can hit double digit TD's. Problem with Boldin he always seems to get hurt.So what do you think ? I did the right move passing on this offer ? I think V-Jax is a top 5 dynasty WR so I had to pass.

I would have taken the deal. In dynasty leagues the trade winner is almost always the one coming away with the best player.

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3. Trade away any player acquired with a 1st round pick that doesn't blow me away in year 1

Step 3 is the hardest part. In the last 5 years I've ended up with 4 top three picks, none of which were my own, and none of which I acquired after week 5 of a season. With those picks, I've taken Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and Beanie Wells. I traded Bush and Benson at high value after year 1, and didn't lose a thing from them. Peterson obviously I kept, and I'm holding Beanie as well because he looks like a manbeast out there (if I had taken Moreno last year, I'd be selling). Trading Bush and Benson was the hardest thing to do in this whole process, because I had grown very attached to them (especially Bush), since when I have a hot young rookie I tend to follow them on Sunday Ticket pretty closely. However, it's necessary.

After year 1 we all tend to come to the same conclusion for RBs, which it makes it difficult to get anything worthwhile for, say, Knowshon Moreno. Personally, I don't like Moreno, but if I owned him I'd probably keep him and hope for a DeAngelo type breakout.
I disagree. Half the people are down on Moreno right now, and half see a guy that was "still learning" that put up 1200 yards and 9 TDs as a rookie and who's only competition going forward is a 31 year old journeyman.

The latter sounds nice and logical, but deep down we know that it doesn't change the fact that he's just not that good. Half the people out there suppress what we saw with our eyes and only look at the "logical" latter part of the argument, still value him highly, and that leaves half a league full of buyers if you have him.

His value is roughly the same as it was at this point last year, so you essentially have an out, with no loss. Two years from now, it's likely that you'll wish you had taken that out when you had the chance, because there are still plenty of buyers out there. His value may seem "low" as "only" the #12 RB or so right now, but that's about where it was last year, and that's what people that held onto Bush, Benson, McFadden, et all lost out on.

Great thread and lots of good points.

So Moreno, despite being himself a former 1st round pick and then being drafted as a fantasy 1st rounder and then putting up 1200/9 td's in his rookie year - you guys are recommending sell? Hate to be the numb skull but what are you who say "sell" seeing? So far, the plan looks to be working:

[*]Broncos drafted high.

[*]A fantasy team drafted high

[*]Moreno broke out as a rookie

Was all of this a fluke and he is headed for the crapper? Some are recommending sell while value is still there because they are saying that he doesn't have the goods. So was that the same thing people said about Cedric Benson after his Bears experience or about Mendenhall right before he broke out?

Looking at how the Moreno plan is playing out, what is it the Moreno is lacking that compels people to want to dump him while his "first round" value remains high? And what pray tell, are people in search of if there is an opinion that he does not have the goods after just one very good rookie season? Thanks.

It's called influx of talent. The NFL landscape is not something that remains stagnant. A guy entering the league one year better be able to "show and prove" enough that he can be considered a fixture for his NFL team, and our fantasy teams, for years to come. Otherwise, there will be concerns on both fronts (NFL and fantasy) of whether or not this guy is good enough to maintain his status as a lead player.

Where this all leads to for me is that I would rate 3, maybe even 4 RBs, in this 2010 class ALL ahead of Moreno for dynasty. And then next year, at least 2 more guys jump ahead of him. Pretty soon, not including emerging (potential) stars already in the league like a Felix Jones, for example, who have the ability to easily leapfrog a guy like Moreno (FWIW, I already have Felix well ahead of him as I'm sold on his talent and believe he will deliver this year), it's not that much of a stretch to see this guy fall way down the rankings like Addai, Parker, Kevin Smith, Maroney, Grant, and others have. Moreno simply didn't flash the type of ability last season when given an abundance of opportunity, IMO, that many (especially in FBG) were hyping him up to be.

If I could land a Top 4 2010 rookie pick for him, even if I had to give up another depth/upside piece, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

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3. Trade away any player acquired with a 1st round pick that doesn't blow me away in year 1

Step 3 is the hardest part. In the last 5 years I've ended up with 4 top three picks, none of which were my own, and none of which I acquired after week 5 of a season. With those picks, I've taken Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and Beanie Wells. I traded Bush and Benson at high value after year 1, and didn't lose a thing from them. Peterson obviously I kept, and I'm holding Beanie as well because he looks like a manbeast out there (if I had taken Moreno last year, I'd be selling). Trading Bush and Benson was the hardest thing to do in this whole process, because I had grown very attached to them (especially Bush), since when I have a hot young rookie I tend to follow them on Sunday Ticket pretty closely. However, it's necessary.

After year 1 we all tend to come to the same conclusion for RBs, which it makes it difficult to get anything worthwhile for, say, Knowshon Moreno. Personally, I don't like Moreno, but if I owned him I'd probably keep him and hope for a DeAngelo type breakout.
I disagree. Half the people are down on Moreno right now, and half see a guy that was "still learning" that put up 1200 yards and 9 TDs as a rookie and who's only competition going forward is a 31 year old journeyman.

The latter sounds nice and logical, but deep down we know that it doesn't change the fact that he's just not that good. Half the people out there suppress what we saw with our eyes and only look at the "logical" latter part of the argument, still value him highly, and that leaves half a league full of buyers if you have him.

His value is roughly the same as it was at this point last year, so you essentially have an out, with no loss. Two years from now, it's likely that you'll wish you had taken that out when you had the chance, because there are still plenty of buyers out there. His value may seem "low" as "only" the #12 RB or so right now, but that's about where it was last year, and that's what people that held onto Bush, Benson, McFadden, et all lost out on.

Great thread and lots of good points.

So Moreno, despite being himself a former 1st round pick and then being drafted as a fantasy 1st rounder and then putting up 1200/9 td's in his rookie year - you guys are recommending sell? Hate to be the numb skull but what are you who say "sell" seeing? So far, the plan looks to be working:

[*]Broncos drafted high.

[*]A fantasy team drafted high

[*]Moreno broke out as a rookie

Was all of this a fluke and he is headed for the crapper? Some are recommending sell while value is still there because they are saying that he doesn't have the goods. So was that the same thing people said about Cedric Benson after his Bears experience or about Mendenhall right before he broke out?

Looking at how the Moreno plan is playing out, what is it the Moreno is lacking that compels people to want to dump him while his "first round" value remains high? And what pray tell, are people in search of if there is an opinion that he does not have the goods after just one very good rookie season? Thanks.

@Mister CIA

See? :(

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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I had an offer of getting Fitzgerald and giving up Vincent Jackson and A-Boldin. I turned the offer down. I think Vincent Jackson is ready to explode and be right up there next to Fitzgerald. Fitz now has an avg QB while Jackson has a stud QB. I also think Boldin is ready to have a big year with a big arm QB like Flacco though Balt does run a little too much near the end zone so I wonder if he can hit double digit TD's. Problem with Boldin he always seems to get hurt.So what do you think ? I did the right move passing on this offer ? I think V-Jax is a top 5 dynasty WR so I had to pass.

I would have taken the deal. In dynasty leagues the trade winner is almost always the one coming away with the best player.
I agree, but I would've countered and tried to at least get a 2011 2nd round pick in return. Tough call, and a great example of a legitimate trade offer involving top flight players.

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I

3. Trade away any player acquired with a 1st round pick that doesn't blow me away in year 1

Step 3 is the hardest part. In the last 5 years I've ended up with 4 top three picks, none of which were my own, and none of which I acquired after week 5 of a season. With those picks, I've taken Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and Beanie Wells. I traded Bush and Benson at high value after year 1, and didn't lose a thing from them. Peterson obviously I kept, and I'm holding Beanie as well because he looks like a manbeast out there (if I had taken Moreno last year, I'd be selling). Trading Bush and Benson was the hardest thing to do in this whole process, because I had grown very attached to them (especially Bush), since when I have a hot young rookie I tend to follow them on Sunday Ticket pretty closely. However, it's necessary.

After year 1 we all tend to come to the same conclusion for RBs, which it makes it difficult to get anything worthwhile for, say, Knowshon Moreno. Personally, I don't like Moreno, but if I owned him I'd probably keep him and hope for a DeAngelo type breakout.
I disagree. Half the people are down on Moreno right now, and half see a guy that was "still learning" that put up 1200 yards and 9 TDs as a rookie and who's only competition going forward is a 31 year old journeyman.

The latter sounds nice and logical, but deep down we know that it doesn't change the fact that he's just not that good. Half the people out there suppress what we saw with our eyes and only look at the "logical" latter part of the argument, still value him highly, and that leaves half a league full of buyers if you have him.

His value is roughly the same as it was at this point last year, so you essentially have an out, with no loss. Two years from now, it's likely that you'll wish you had taken that out when you had the chance, because there are still plenty of buyers out there. His value may seem "low" as "only" the #12 RB or so right now, but that's about where it was last year, and that's what people that held onto Bush, Benson, McFadden, et all lost out on.

Great thread and lots of good points.

So Moreno, despite being himself a former 1st round pick and then being drafted as a fantasy 1st rounder and then putting up 1200/9 td's in his rookie year - you guys are recommending sell? Hate to be the numb skull but what are you who say "sell" seeing? So far, the plan looks to be working:

[*]Broncos drafted high.

[*]A fantasy team drafted high

[*]Moreno broke out as a rookie

Was all of this a fluke and he is headed for the crapper? Some are recommending sell while value is still there because they are saying that he doesn't have the goods. So was that the same thing people said about Cedric Benson after his Bears experience or about Mendenhall right before he broke out?

Looking at how the Moreno plan is playing out, what is it the Moreno is lacking that compels people to want to dump him while his "first round" value remains high? And what pray tell, are people in search of if there is an opinion that he does not have the goods after just one very good rookie season? Thanks.

@Mister CIA

See? :shrug:

So freebagel: if you are selling Moreno, what in terms of players or picks are you thinking is an upgrade? Of course much would depend on the makeup of your team...but it sounds like you are down on Moreno. A recoupment for him would be _________________.

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And what pray tell, are people in search of if there is an opinion that he does not have the goods after just one very good rookie season? Thanks.

I do not think Moreno had a "very good rookie season." When you're outplayed by Correll Buckhalter, you have a ways to go IMO.
NAME TM RSY TD RCY TD FPTK Moreno DEN 947 7 213 2 170 C Buckhalt DEN 642 1 240 0 94 P Hillis DEN 54 1 19 0 13 L Jordan DEN 86 0 0 0 9If Buckhalter blew away Moreno...the stat line doesn't show it. Maybe he had more yds/carry?

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And what pray tell, are people in search of if there is an opinion that he does not have the goods after just one very good rookie season? Thanks.

I do not think Moreno had a "very good rookie season." When you're outplayed by Correll Buckhalter, you have a ways to go IMO.
NAME TM RSY TD RCY TD FPTK Moreno DEN 947 7 213 2 170 C Buckhalt DEN 642 1 240 0 94 P Hillis DEN 54 1 19 0 13 L Jordan DEN 86 0 0 0 9If Buckhalter blew away Moreno...the stat line doesn't show it. Maybe he had more yds/carry?
Buckhalter did look more explosive.You are right on the yards/carry avg difference:Moreno: 3.8 yds/carryBuckhalter: 5.4 yds/carryAnd this was a 31 year old Buckhalter after knee issues throughout of his career

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Rather than just look at the 09 fantasy points

Moreno 16 gms 247 carries 947 yds 3.8 ypc 41 targets 28 catches 213 yds 7.6 ypc & 9 TDs

Buckhalter 14 gms 120 carries 642 yds 5.4 ypc 38 targets 31 catches 240 yds 7.7 ypc & 1 TD

Other than TDs Buckhalter performed better in every category. I didn't watch many of the Broncos games, but when I saw them play, Buckhalter looked better to me.

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Great thread and lots of good points.

So Moreno, despite being himself a former 1st round pick and then being drafted as a fantasy 1st rounder and then putting up 1200/9 td's in his rookie year - you guys are recommending sell? Hate to be the numb skull but what are you who say "sell" seeing? So far, the plan looks to be working:

[*]Broncos drafted high.

[*]A fantasy team drafted high

[*]Moreno broke out as a rookie

Was all of this a fluke and he is headed for the crapper? Some are recommending sell while value is still there because they are saying that he doesn't have the goods. So was that the same thing people said about Cedric Benson after his Bears experience or about Mendenhall right before he broke out?

Looking at how the Moreno plan is playing out, what is it the Moreno is lacking that compels people to want to dump him while his "first round" value remains high? And what pray tell, are people in search of if there is an opinion that he does not have the goods after just one very good rookie season? Thanks.

In 2008, Denver placed seven RBs on injured reserve. Wrap your head around that stat for a second. Denver was down to its EIGHTH STRING RUSHER. In August, Tatum Bell made national news for stealing Rudi Johnson's luggage. In October, Tatum Bells was selling cell phones in the local mall. In December, Tatum Bell was the Broncos' first string tailback. I have never seen any single team so decimated at any single position as the 2008 Denver Broncos were at tailback. What does this have to do with Moreno? Well, the 2008 Denver Broncos RB Corpse (not a typo) averaged 4.8 yards per carry, good for 3rd in the NFL. The Broncos line was a devastating unit, and the running game was absurdly effective- far more effective than it had any right to be.

In 2009, Knowshon Moreno averaged 3.8 yards per attempt. The only other Bronco RB with more than 25 carries averaged 5.4 yards per attempt. Moreno ranked 10th in the league in rushing attempts behind one of the top 3 offensive lines in the entire NFL, and he barely limped to a 17th place fantasy finish. And he didn't look very impressive doing it, either. Coming into the league, McDaniels raved about his passcatching and his blocking, calling him a 3-down RB... and yet he finished with fewer receptions than his backup.

Basically, I'm looking for an RB that looked good against NFL competition... and Knowshon Moreno wasn't it. You call his rookie season "very good". I call it well below average.

I had an offer of getting Fitzgerald and giving up Vincent Jackson and A-Boldin. I turned the offer down. I think Vincent Jackson is ready to explode and be right up there next to Fitzgerald. Fitz now has an avg QB while Jackson has a stud QB. I also think Boldin is ready to have a big year with a big arm QB like Flacco though Balt does run a little too much near the end zone so I wonder if he can hit double digit TD's. Problem with Boldin he always seems to get hurt.

So what do you think ? I did the right move passing on this offer ? I think V-Jax is a top 5 dynasty WR so I had to pass.

I would have taken the deal. In dynasty leagues the trade winner is almost always the one coming away with the best player.
I would have taken it, too. The difference in consistency and risk between VJax and Fitzgerald is definitely worth an Anquan Boldin, imo.

So freebagel: if you are selling Moreno, what in terms of players or picks are you thinking is an upgrade? Of course much would depend on the makeup of your team...but it sounds like you are down on Moreno. A recoupment for him would be _________________.

I almost traded Moreno, Sims-Walker, Tomlinson, and a 2nd rounder for Brandon Marshall and Marion Barber, although I wound up getting a better offer for Sims-Walker from somewhere else and the trade fell apart without him. I'd trade Moreno for a top 3 rookie pick (maybe top 4, although I'm afraid of C.J. Spiller), or I'd trade him for someone like a Jamaal Charles. I'd trade him for a quality young WR like Sidney Rice or Michael Crabtree if I could get one.

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just a question about the blog which probably has been answered somewhere in these 90 pages but havent seen it...

when looking to trade wr for rb or vice versa or draft either of those two positions in an initial startup ... are your number grades out beside the player comparable across positions (assuming the scoring system isn't heavily favored to one position) ?

or are the numbers simply a gauge for THAT position only

just trying to group yours together like a FBG or dynastyguys combined position rankings to compare

and if the answer is no, the numbers dont go across grades, have you ever thought about a combined ranking system with the grades?

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CJ4 vs Jahvid

i see many posters who i respect, willing to go to bat for Best but "scared of" Spiller

even with Best one big hit away from his 3rd or 4th serious concussion depending on who you talk to at Cal, and their BMI and skill sets similar

watching both in college, i see spiller as the better back production-wise/health-wise/and the competition each faced

why the disparity and what am i missing?

Edited by Lash

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CJ4 vs Jahvidi see many posters who i respect, willing to go to bat for Best but "scared of" Spillereven with Best one big hit away from his 3rd or 4th serious concussion depending on who you talk to at Cal, and their BMI and skill sets similarwatching both in college, i see spiller as the better back production-wise/health-wise/and the competition each facedwhy the disparity and what am i missing?

To quote my favorite sentence in the entire English language... "Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo".There's a bit more to it than that (I haven't been blown away by anything Spiller has done yet, whether it's his college highlights or his measurables), but that definitely plays a part.

just a question about the blog which probably has been answered somewhere in these 90 pages but havent seen it...when looking to trade wr for rb or vice versa or draft either of those two positions in an initial startup ... are your number grades out beside the player comparable across positions (assuming the scoring system isn't heavily favored to one position) ?or are the numbers simply a gauge for THAT position onlyjust trying to group yours together like a FBG or dynastyguys combined position rankings to compareand if the answer is no, the numbers dont go across grades, have you ever thought about a combined ranking system with the grades?

The rankings are not meant to be cross-positional. F&L has never had an interest in doing cross-positional rankings because those would be so heavily dependent on league settings. Rankings that work in a start 1/2/3/1/1/1 league would be ridiculously out of whack in a 1/2/2/1/1/1+1flex league, which would look nothing like rankings in a 2/2/4/1/1/1 league, which would in turn be nothing like a 1/1/1/0 four player superflex league. In addition, 10 teamers wouldn't look like 16 teamers, QB rankings in a 1/20 6ptTD league would be different than in a 1/25 4ptTD league, PPR would throw the RB and WR rankings out of whack, leagues that give TEs 2 PPR wouldn't be accurate, etc. Intrapositional rankings tend to be relatively constant across the spectrum, but interpositional rankings are mind-bendingly dynamic from one league to the next.

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CJ4 vs Jahvidi see many posters who i respect, willing to go to bat for Best but "scared of" Spillereven with Best one big hit away from his 3rd or 4th serious concussion depending on who you talk to at Cal, and their BMI and skill sets similarwatching both in college, i see spiller as the better back production-wise/health-wise/and the competition each facedwhy the disparity and what am i missing?

In terms of competition, the notion that the ACC is somehow superior to the Pac-10 is a myth. If you look at the amount of NFL players in the league per team, the Pac-10 ranks second behind the SEC. It's not an easy conference and the accomplishments of the players shouldn't be diminished. And for whatever it's worth, Best absolutely skewered Miami in 2008 and Maryland in 2009 (ACC teams).As for your question, I don't think there's a consensus that Best > Spiller. Sometimes you need to draw a distinction between FBG reality and reality. For whatever reason, certain players become trendy picks on these message boards and get drafted a lot earlier in FBG leagues than they would in leagues comprised of "outsiders." If you look at rookie drafts from across the spectrum, I would be surprised if Best went higher than Spiller on average. My guess is that most people actually prefer Spiller.Having said that, I'm in the Best camp. These two players are often compared to one another because of their size and speed, but I think they're pretty different in spite of those superficial similarities. I think Spiller has better straight-line speed. That's the only area where I think he has an advantage over Best, as I think Jahvid is more fluid and elusive. I think he has a better frame. He just looks a little less "leggy" and a little more compact and quick. I'm not quite sure how he'll pan out at the NFL level, but I get a Percy Harvin vibe from him in the sense that he's simply an elite athlete and football player whose bulletproof skills will lead to success. I like him a lot in PPR formats because I think his receiving skills are a huge plus that could shock people in year one. I think he can catch 60-80 balls in a season. Whether or not he can handle 200+ carries is more of a concern to me. I think that will determine whether he's a star in every format or only a star in PPR. Spiller has a little bit of that Chris Johnson video game speed and he's definitely an elite athlete in terms of his quick twitch and burst, but he's built slender and I have a hard time envisioning him as a successful every down back in the NFL. He lacks bulk, isn't as elusive as Best in tight quarters, and may struggle to gain the consistent "blue collar" yards required of a pro starter. Does he have superstar potential? Possibly, but I think he comes saddled with more bust risk than the other top prospects in this FF class. I would look elsewhere at his ADP for that reason.

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Exactly SSOG....The LEAGUE SETTINGS make a HUGE difference when considering some of the trades and trade value questions that are thrown out here. I always hear whoever got the "best player" won (& in many cases I agree), but in the VJax/Boldin for Fitz ? above, what if the possible starting requirements are 1 RB & 5 WR in a PPR (or 2/4)?. I play in some leagues like this and obviously the strategy is a LOT different than a 1/2/2 NO FLEX format. You can have Fitz and a lot of nothings at WR in a league like that (happens in auctions a lot) and get crushed by a team with 5 WR's ranked in the 15-25 range (or 4 & 2 decent RB's).

That's why when people say here - "That trade looks really bad", it is almost impossible to know without the settings and format (PPR or NON PPR).

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I think he (Best) has a better frame. He just looks a little less "leggy" (than Spiller) and a little more compact and quick.

I don't see how you can say this at all as they are the exact opposite, IMO. You might be the first to say Best looks more "compact" than Spiller.

Spiller

Spiller

Spiller

Spiller

Spiller

Best

Best

Best

Best

Best

I showed multiple pictures so there's no bias of picking one picture over another, legs going forward or backward creating an illusion, both in and out of pads. I don't think it's even close.

Edited by gianmarco

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There's a bit more to it than that (I haven't been blown away by anything Spiller has done yet, whether it's his college highlights or his measurables), but that definitely plays a part.

SSOG, I find myself agreeing with a lot you post here and when I don't, I try to ask myself why and reexamine my position. That said, this statement above is astounding to me.

No doubt I'm a Spiller fan and like his potential. I can understand how he's viewed as risky. I can understand how some don't like where he landed and don't think he'll ever be a reliable fantasy starter. I can understand some being concerned that he "bounces it to the outside" too much (even though I don't agree). But I have NO IDEA how you can watch any highlights and say you haven't been "blown away". Really? The guy has some of the most amazing, jawdropping highlights I've seen from any player. I'd be really curious how you came to post this and if you could explain how you weren't impressed.

ETA--Just so we can be on the same page, here's a couple videos (lots of the same runs)

Spiller Highlights 1

Spiller Highlights 3

As for his measurables, he only ran the 40 at the combine. Despite being clocked sub 4.3 on both runs unofficially (4.27 and 4.28 in back to back runs), they somehow added a full tenth of a second to BOTH of his runs (something I've never seen before). Even still, he was "officially" a 4.37 which is still pretty fast. As for the rest of them, he's listed as having a 10'6" broad jump (would have been #1 at the combine) and a 36" vertical (tied for 8th). So, I'm not sure how you don't find those numbers impressive, but I'd be curious to hear why.

Spiller's Draft profile with measureables

Spiller's combine runs

Edited by gianmarco

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