What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Dynasty Rankings (4 Viewers)

True I spose, depth drafting being the key factor. If you believed last year that you could get a quality starting RB late like Rice and another Wr, again like Rice, then you're willing to trade a lot of surer pieces for one stud, and you're still comfortable with having a solid dynasty squad. If you were lucky over the last few years, selling all those pieces wouldn't necessarily mean being a below average team. Just got to take the right gambles.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I am for WHATEVER keeps the BLOG RANKINGS OPEN Chris.....If this extra work forces the elimination of the blog (ie: only ROTOWORLD Rankings - And aren't those top 200 only or would you be ranking each position there) then I am against it (LOL), since I truly enjoy the blog/rankings.
:confused:
If I am forced to lose the blog (and I'm pretty frustrated with Blogger right now), the rankings would not be buried anywhere in Rotoworld's pay content. I'd make sure they were freely available on Rotoworld before I changed venues.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
There have been a few odd Rivers trades lately in the offseason dynasty thread, so I thought I'd bring it up in here for some discussion.

With how high we all seem to be on VJax, what's goin on with Rivers? He's been getting more done with less for a couple seasons now, and is extremely efficient. Do we see more attempts coming?

I have him right here:

Rodgers

Manning

Brees

Rivers

Romo

Schaub

Brady

Why is he being traded around so much recently?

 
By giving up the 2nd, 3rd and 4th you ARE giving up good young depth at the minimum. I don't mind the trade, but it's approximate impact on your positional drafting will be difficult to make up I reckon unless you have a very solid draft. Alas, if you're making those sorts of trades, you obviously believe in yourself :eek: . Whether that means going QB next asap and then trying to get some okay refuse at RB, I don't know.
I don't think that's necessarily the case at all. In fact, top picks are much more valuable to you if you don't believe in yourself because they're much harder to screw up. The easiest pick in any rookie draft is pick 1.01. If someone was worried about getting a bunch of Slatons and Barbers in rounds 2, 3, or 4 I could see them packaging to take the "sure thing" in Andre Johnson.
:thumbup:

I feel like i "believe" in myself, and i am the kind of owner who takes chances like trading "sure things" for younger/unproven players and draft picks. Its a risky way to run a dynasty team, but i think its the best way to build a truly dominant team.

 
There have been a few odd Rivers trades lately in the offseason dynasty thread, so I thought I'd bring it up in here for some discussion.

With how high we all seem to be on VJax, what's goin on with Rivers? He's been getting more done with less for a couple seasons now, and is extremely efficient. Do we see more attempts coming?

I have him right here:

Rodgers

Manning

Brees

Rivers

Romo

Schaub

Brady

Why is he being traded around so much recently?
A few opinions (I don't necessarily agree with any of them):1) SD drafted Mathews high and some feel this team will run more and score more with the run.

2) He is the least sexy of the top tiers. He doesn't have good mobility (romo), rifle arm (rodgers), or a superb supporting cast (manning, brees, romo). Dynasty owners like sexy.

 
There have been a few odd Rivers trades lately in the offseason dynasty thread, so I thought I'd bring it up in here for some discussion.

With how high we all seem to be on VJax, what's goin on with Rivers? He's been getting more done with less for a couple seasons now, and is extremely efficient. Do we see more attempts coming?

I have him right here:

Rodgers

Manning

Brees

Rivers

Romo

Schaub

Brady

Why is he being traded around so much recently?
I think Rivers is sort of an "always a bridesmaid, never a bride" kind of QB. If I had to place bets on which QB would rank in the top 10 for each of the next 6 seasons, Rivers would probably be my first choice. If I had to place bets on which QB would finish first in one of the next 6 seasons, Rivers would probably be my 10th choice. I think he's going to perennially fall in the 3-6 range. A lot of people undervalue assets like that because they're going for the home run. It's like Roddy White- I don't think he's going to accumulate many (if any) top 5 finishes in his career, but I still have him as a top-5 dynasty WR because he's going to accumulate a ton of top-10 finishes.
 
re:the rankings/blog, i love them the way they are and don't think the change would add too much for me. Currently finding/sorting out your stuff on rotoworld is a major pain in the ### (maybe I just haven't figured out how to search by author), so unless there was a change there i'm against it somewhat

 
There have been a few odd Rivers trades lately in the offseason dynasty thread, so I thought I'd bring it up in here for some discussion.

With how high we all seem to be on VJax, what's goin on with Rivers? He's been getting more done with less for a couple seasons now, and is extremely efficient. Do we see more attempts coming?

I have him right here:

Rodgers

Manning

Brees

Rivers

Romo

Schaub

Brady

Why is he being traded around so much recently?
Don't know. Some people just like trading and assume those who don't are inactive owners. In one league he has gone to 4 different teams in the last year. In another Zoomanji refuses to trade him...

 
Don't know. Some people just like trading and assume those who don't are inactive owners. In one league he has gone to 4 different teams in the last year. In another Zoomanji refuses to trade him...
Also, situational changes and trades are constant bedfellows. In the case of a guy like Greg Jennings or Marques Colston, I tend to think they don't get involved in as many trades because there's generally not much fluctuation in their value or situation. It's not like someone's just going to wake up today and love Jennings- if he really thinks Jennings is worth his current cost, he probably would have made a move on him any time in the last two years when he was going for the exact same price.On the other hand, as soon as situations change, it opens up the trading floodgates because everyone is going to interpret the changes differently. Mike Wallace becomes a starter? Some people are going to see this as the perfect sell high opportunity. Others are going to view this as the last chance to buy low. Warner retires? Suddenly people who weren't willing to pay the high cost of entry on Larry Fitzgerald are sniffing around seeing if his owner's faith is wavering any. Similarly... VJax's suspension and holdout might be causing some fluctuation on Rivers' value, which would result in more trades for Rivers than for a guy like Brees or Manning where, if someone really wanted them, they would have bought them years ago.
 
There have been a few odd Rivers trades lately in the offseason dynasty thread, so I thought I'd bring it up in here for some discussion.

With how high we all seem to be on VJax, what's goin on with Rivers? He's been getting more done with less for a couple seasons now, and is extremely efficient. Do we see more attempts coming?

I have him right here:

Rodgers

Manning

Brees

Rivers

Romo

Schaub

Brady

Why is he being traded around so much recently?
Rivers might be ahead of only Brady on this list......Might
 
There have been a few odd Rivers trades lately in the offseason dynasty thread, so I thought I'd bring it up in here for some discussion.

With how high we all seem to be on VJax, what's goin on with Rivers? He's been getting more done with less for a couple seasons now, and is extremely efficient. Do we see more attempts coming?

I have him right here:

Rodgers

Manning

Brees

Rivers

Romo

Schaub

Brady

Why is he being traded around so much recently?
Rivers might be ahead of only Brady on this list......Might
Because he's performed as good or better with significantly less attempts? Or because he's also younger than all but Rodgers (iirc)?
 
There have been a few odd Rivers trades lately in the offseason dynasty thread, so I thought I'd bring it up in here for some discussion.

With how high we all seem to be on VJax, what's goin on with Rivers? He's been getting more done with less for a couple seasons now, and is extremely efficient. Do we see more attempts coming?

I have him right here:

Rodgers

Manning

Brees

Rivers

Romo

Schaub

Brady

Why is he being traded around so much recently?
Rivers might be ahead of only Brady on this list......Might
Please. Matt Schaub is Marc Bulger v2.0. Rodgers and Brees are both no-brainer picks over Rivers in Dynasty, and I can see a strong argument for Manning (6 years older, but in my humble opinion the greatest QB to ever play) and Romo (not as good as Rivers, but great weapons)... but anyone who takes Schaub over Rivers is asking for trouble, imo.
 
There have been a few odd Rivers trades lately in the offseason dynasty thread, so I thought I'd bring it up in here for some discussion.

With how high we all seem to be on VJax, what's goin on with Rivers? He's been getting more done with less for a couple seasons now, and is extremely efficient. Do we see more attempts coming?

I have him right here:

Rodgers

Manning

Brees

Rivers

Romo

Schaub

Brady

Why is he being traded around so much recently?
Rivers might be ahead of only Brady on this list......Might
Please. Matt Schaub is Marc Bulger v2.0. Rodgers and Brees are both no-brainer picks over Rivers in Dynasty, and I can see a strong argument for Manning (6 years older, but in my humble opinion the greatest QB to ever play) and Romo (not as good as Rivers, but great weapons)... but anyone who takes Schaub over Rivers is asking for trouble, imo.
Matt Schaub has performed at a much higher level than you're suggesting here. Over the last 3 years, Chase's famed adjusted net yards/attempt has climbed and he's 6th overall in the CAREER list in that category amongst all QBs. Of course, Rivers is 2nd and I'm not saying Schaub is better than Rivers necessarily but that the difference between the 2 is significantly closer than what you seem to think.

ANY/A Career Leaders

8th in career yards/attempt

11th in career passer rating

As nice of numbers as Bulger put up in a system friendly, he's not ranked anywhere near those #'s. Schaub is significantly better and more talented and more productive than Bulger.

 
Agree 1000% with SSOG and his Shaub = Bulger comparison.

I will never touch Shaub in any league. soooooooooooo Overrated.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Schaub is an easy grab at the right price. However, I've seen him up along side some far far talented players in drafts in terms of value, and all the factors combined, including injury risk, would just as easily decide for me that it would be better waiting a bit and grabbing a Rivers, who I think is a superior talent, or Roethlisberger.

 
Schaub is an easy grab at the right price. However, I've seen him up along side some far far talented players in drafts in terms of value, and all the factors combined, including injury risk, would just as easily decide for me that it would be better waiting a bit and grabbing a Rivers, who I think is a superior talent, or Roethlisberger.
Injury risk? You mean because he plays football? Or because getting a separated shoulder (not a lingering injury) back in 2007 and a sprained MCL from a dirty hit by Jared Allen (not a lingering injury) mean his body is built differently? I guess Tom Brady and Carson Palmer and Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers are injury risks too.

 
Schaub is an easy grab at the right price. However, I've seen him up along side some far far talented players in drafts in terms of value, and all the factors combined, including injury risk, would just as easily decide for me that it would be better waiting a bit and grabbing a Rivers, who I think is a superior talent, or Roethlisberger.
Injury risk? You mean because he plays football? Or because getting a separated shoulder (not a lingering injury) back in 2007 and a sprained MCL from a dirty hit by Jared Allen (not a lingering injury) mean his body is built differently? I guess Tom Brady and Carson Palmer and Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers are injury risks too.
An injury risk is in the mind of the draftee. I personally do see him as more of an injury risk than most other QBs. Doesn't mean they will necessarily miss games, but it impacts on performance, ie Palmer. Not saying it counts for much but admittedly it's hard to remove a tag you have applied yourself, with whatever external influence. The bloke had two years straight of 11 games out of 16, including the concussion in 08.
 
Schaub is an easy grab at the right price. However, I've seen him up along side some far far talented players in drafts in terms of value, and all the factors combined, including injury risk, would just as easily decide for me that it would be better waiting a bit and grabbing a Rivers, who I think is a superior talent, or Roethlisberger.
Im thinking Rivers goes before Schaub in any format, especially dynasty leagues. Im have Schaub firmly in my 6 spot amongst QB's. I couldnt see taking any of the Qb's I have lower than him, especially Big Ben.

 
Was purely bringing up Rivers as the poster above suggested Rivers was maybe ONLY above Brady, and that was only a maybe.

As I said, I would easily take Schaub as the 6th QB, but only if it was at a sensible time for me. I would prefer to wait a few rounds for BB, who will be even cheaper given his suspension (Depending how much of a knee-jerk league you're in as well though, as well as scoring format).

 
Schaub is an easy grab at the right price. However, I've seen him up along side some far far talented players in drafts in terms of value, and all the factors combined, including injury risk, would just as easily decide for me that it would be better waiting a bit and grabbing a Rivers, who I think is a superior talent, or Roethlisberger.
Injury risk? You mean because he plays football? Or because getting a separated shoulder (not a lingering injury) back in 2007 and a sprained MCL from a dirty hit by Jared Allen (not a lingering injury) mean his body is built differently? I guess Tom Brady and Carson Palmer and Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers are injury risks too.
Schaub is most certainly more of an injury risk to most Dynasty players. He is made of glass. I think you just like to argue. Lately you seem to do nothing but argue...
 
Schaub is an easy grab at the right price. However, I've seen him up along side some far far talented players in drafts in terms of value, and all the factors combined, including injury risk, would just as easily decide for me that it would be better waiting a bit and grabbing a Rivers, who I think is a superior talent, or Roethlisberger.
Injury risk? You mean because he plays football? Or because getting a separated shoulder (not a lingering injury) back in 2007 and a sprained MCL from a dirty hit by Jared Allen (not a lingering injury) mean his body is built differently? I guess Tom Brady and Carson Palmer and Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers are injury risks too.
Schaub is most certainly more of an injury risk to most Dynasty players. He is made of glass. I think you just like to argue. Lately you seem to do nothing but argue...
He's not made of glass at all. He was unlucky. Twice. It happens. And the dirty Allen hit was actually 2 dirty Allen hits in one game, both of which received fines.Then again...YEAH! He's a huge freakin injury risk! Let him fall more than he should! That way I can get an extra WR before my QB lol.

 
Schaub is an easy grab at the right price. However, I've seen him up along side some far far talented players in drafts in terms of value, and all the factors combined, including injury risk, would just as easily decide for me that it would be better waiting a bit and grabbing a Rivers, who I think is a superior talent, or Roethlisberger.
Injury risk? You mean because he plays football? Or because getting a separated shoulder (not a lingering injury) back in 2007 and a sprained MCL from a dirty hit by Jared Allen (not a lingering injury) mean his body is built differently? I guess Tom Brady and Carson Palmer and Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers are injury risks too.
One can certainly take the stance that every football player is an injury risk. But Rivers started 51 (of 51) games in college, which at the time was a NCAA record, and has not missed a game in the NFL due to injury. So IMO it is fair to say he is a lesser injury risk than most other QBs. Schaub has been injured multiple times and missed a lot of games due to that... you can make the case that he is not as injury prone as he is made out to be, but he is certainly more injury prone than Rivers.
 
Schaub is an easy grab at the right price. However, I've seen him up along side some far far talented players in drafts in terms of value, and all the factors combined, including injury risk, would just as easily decide for me that it would be better waiting a bit and grabbing a Rivers, who I think is a superior talent, or Roethlisberger.
Injury risk? You mean because he plays football? Or because getting a separated shoulder (not a lingering injury) back in 2007 and a sprained MCL from a dirty hit by Jared Allen (not a lingering injury) mean his body is built differently? I guess Tom Brady and Carson Palmer and Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers are injury risks too.
Schaub is most certainly more of an injury risk to most Dynasty players. He is made of glass. I think you just like to argue. Lately you seem to do nothing but argue...
No, I don't just "like to argue". What's more useful here? A bunch of people with a " :thumbdown: ", or someone challenging an "accepted" truth (like Schaub being injury-prone) when he may in fact not be? Despite the fact that I like to start lots of discussions, I don't like to waste posting stuff on the things that are obvious. Not much is learned from there. No reason for me to jump in a Chris Johnson thread saying he's the #1 RB. I find it much more useful both to myself and hopefully others to jump in a thread and challenge a statement if I don't agree with it. I know I've had my mind changed on several different players as a result of other posters doing the same thing. As to Schaub being made of glass, that's just utter nonsense. There's a HUGE difference between injury HISTORY and injury PRONE. Schaub definitely has an injury HISTORY. He is NOT injury PRONE. The guy hasn't had reconstructive knee surgery that might have lingering effects. He's not a WR with lingering hamstring issues. He's not a RB or TE with lingering foot issues. He hasn't had multiple concussions like other QBs. The guy strained a knee ligament on a late/dirty hit by Jared Allen and he had a separated shoulder.

The better question is: What is it about Schaub that makes him an injury risk in the FUTURE? Is it his playing style? Is it more different or more dangerous than other QBs? He isn't a rushing QB like an A. Rodgers or Cutler or McNabb. Schaub only had 67 rushing yds last year. 68 the year before. 52 the year before. He isn't sacked more than usual. He had 25 last year (same as Rivers). He had 23 the year before (less than Rivers).

So what is it exactly, other than the fact he's been unlucky so far, that makes him an injury risk or injury prone? If there's something about his play that leads to it, I'd like to know. If there's something about his body makeup, I'd like to know.

Aside from that, what you see as constantly arguing is me just disputing what I perceive as general myths or misconceptions. I like to challenge those on a regular basis. I like to think I make some people rethink some common perceptions they have and I've been told as much. I know other posters that "argue" a lot make me do that.

 
Schaub is an easy grab at the right price. However, I've seen him up along side some far far talented players in drafts in terms of value, and all the factors combined, including injury risk, would just as easily decide for me that it would be better waiting a bit and grabbing a Rivers, who I think is a superior talent, or Roethlisberger.
Injury risk? You mean because he plays football? Or because getting a separated shoulder (not a lingering injury) back in 2007 and a sprained MCL from a dirty hit by Jared Allen (not a lingering injury) mean his body is built differently? I guess Tom Brady and Carson Palmer and Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers are injury risks too.
One can certainly take the stance that every football player is an injury risk. But Rivers started 51 (of 51) games in college, which at the time was a NCAA record, and has not missed a game in the NFL due to injury. So IMO it is fair to say he is a lesser injury risk than most other QBs. Schaub has been injured multiple times and missed a lot of games due to that... you can make the case that he is not as injury prone as he is made out to be, but he is certainly more injury prone than Rivers.
You can read my post above, but Schaub has more of an injury HISTORY than Rivers. That doesn't mean he's more injury prone. When you compare things that put QBs at risk of being injured (rushing attempts/yds and sacks), then Schaub is actually the same or less likely to be injured than Rivers. Previous injuries aren't a predictor of future injuries except in the case of lingering injuries (which Schaub doesn't have). Now, add in a few concussions or a reconstructed knee and I'll gladly submit that he will be at a higher future risk. But not because of a strained knee ligament and a separated shoulder all over 2 yrs ago.

 
Schaub is an easy grab at the right price. However, I've seen him up along side some far far talented players in drafts in terms of value, and all the factors combined, including injury risk, would just as easily decide for me that it would be better waiting a bit and grabbing a Rivers, who I think is a superior talent, or Roethlisberger.
Injury risk? You mean because he plays football? Or because getting a separated shoulder (not a lingering injury) back in 2007 and a sprained MCL from a dirty hit by Jared Allen (not a lingering injury) mean his body is built differently? I guess Tom Brady and Carson Palmer and Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers are injury risks too.
Schaub is most certainly more of an injury risk to most Dynasty players. He is made of glass. I think you just like to argue. Lately you seem to do nothing but argue...
No, I don't just "like to argue". What's more useful here? A bunch of people with a " :bag: ", or someone challenging an "accepted" truth (like Schaub being injury-prone) when he may in fact not be? Despite the fact that I like to start lots of discussions, I don't like to waste posting stuff on the things that are obvious. Not much is learned from there. No reason for me to jump in a Chris Johnson thread saying he's the #1 RB. I find it much more useful both to myself and hopefully others to jump in a thread and challenge a statement if I don't agree with it. I know I've had my mind changed on several different players as a result of other posters doing the same thing. As to Schaub being made of glass, that's just utter nonsense. There's a HUGE difference between injury HISTORY and injury PRONE. Schaub definitely has an injury HISTORY. He is NOT injury PRONE. The guy hasn't had reconstructive knee surgery that might have lingering effects. He's not a WR with lingering hamstring issues. He's not a RB or TE with lingering foot issues. He hasn't had multiple concussions like other QBs. The guy strained a knee ligament on a late/dirty hit by Jared Allen and he had a separated shoulder.

The better question is: What is it about Schaub that makes him an injury risk in the FUTURE? Is it his playing style? Is it more different or more dangerous than other QBs? He isn't a rushing QB like an A. Rodgers or Cutler or McNabb. Schaub only had 67 rushing yds last year. 68 the year before. 52 the year before. He isn't sacked more than usual. He had 25 last year (same as Rivers). He had 23 the year before (less than Rivers).

So what is it exactly, other than the fact he's been unlucky so far, that makes him an injury risk or injury prone? If there's something about his play that leads to it, I'd like to know. If there's something about his body makeup, I'd like to know.

Aside from that, what you see as constantly arguing is me just disputing what I perceive as general myths or misconceptions. I like to challenge those on a regular basis. I like to think I make some people rethink some common perceptions they have and I've been told as much. I know other posters that "argue" a lot make me do that.
Well Gian - Who was the QB there before Schaub? Did he get sacked alot? Do you think Schaub's following behind and getting lit up and hurt a couple years in a row might indicate he is an injury risk?You are sticking your head in the sand if you think Schaub doesn't present a greater injury risk than other top tier QB's.

 
Matt Schaub has performed at a much higher level than you're suggesting here. Over the last 3 years, Chase's famed adjusted net yards/attempt has climbed and he's 6th overall in the CAREER list in that category amongst all QBs. Of course, Rivers is 2nd and I'm not saying Schaub is better than Rivers necessarily but that the difference between the 2 is significantly closer than what you seem to think.

ANY/A Career Leaders

8th in career yards/attempt

11th in career passer rating

As nice of numbers as Bulger put up in a system friendly, he's not ranked anywhere near those #'s. Schaub is significantly better and more talented and more productive than Bulger.
Schaub's QB rating in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 87.2, 92.7, 98.6 (mean = 92.8)Bulger's QB rating in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 101.5, 81.4, 93.7 (mean = 92.2)

Schaub's YPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 7.8, 8.0, 8.2 (mean = 8.0)

Bulger's YPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 8.5, 7.2, 8.2 (mean = 8.0)

Schaub's AYPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 7.0, 7.6, 8.0 (mean = 7.5)

Bulger's AYPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 8.6, 6.2, 7.7 (mean = 7.5)

Schaub's YPG in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 203.7, 276.6, 298.1 (average = 264.6)

Bulger's YPG in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 260.9, 256.3, 283.1 (average = 267.6)

Schaub's TD:INT ratio in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 1:1, 1.5:1, 1.9:1 (total = 53:34, or 1.56:1)

Bulger's TD:INT ratio in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 2.3:1, 1:1, 1.5:1 (total = 57:42, or 1.36:1)

Bulger's career numbers don't rank anywhere near Schaub's because for the last 3 seasons he's played for a terrible team and his numbers have tanked, but through 5 years Bulger's career stats ranked just as high as Schaub's rank now. And that kind of proves my point- Bulger was awesome when he had a great team and a great system backing him up. When he didn't, he wasn't. That's why it's folly to rate Schaub over Rivers at this point. Schaub is a less talented QB deriving a larger percentage of his value from his situation, which is subject to change.

I say this as a former Schaub owner who drafted him in the 15th round of our startup three years ago, rode his underrated production for years... and then traded him the second his perceived value outstripped my opinions of his talent.

Well Gian - Who was the QB there before Schaub? Did he get sacked alot? Do you think Schaub's following behind and getting lit up and hurt a couple years in a row might indicate he is an injury risk?

You are sticking your head in the sand if you think Schaub doesn't present a greater injury risk than other top tier QB's.
My head must be in the sand, too. When defenders get fined THREE TIMES IN A SINGLE SEASON for dirty hits on you, and one of those dirty hits takes you out for a couple of games, I'm just crazy enough to not assume that it means you're injury prone or made of glass. "Oh man, that Matt Schaub is a total glassman- why can't he just take a hit THAT THE NFL HAS OUTLAWED BECAUSE IT CAUSES INJURIES without getting injured?".
 
Schaub's QB rating in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 87.2, 92.7, 98.6 (mean = 92.8)Bulger's QB rating in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 101.5, 81.4, 93.7 (mean = 92.2)Schaub's YPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 7.8, 8.0, 8.2 (mean = 8.0)Bulger's YPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 8.5, 7.2, 8.2 (mean = 8.0)Schaub's AYPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 7.0, 7.6, 8.0 (mean = 7.5)Bulger's AYPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 8.6, 6.2, 7.7 (mean = 7.5)Schaub's YPG in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 203.7, 276.6, 298.1 (average = 264.6)Bulger's YPG in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 260.9, 256.3, 283.1 (average = 267.6)Schaub's TD:INT ratio in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 1:1, 1.5:1, 1.9:1 (total = 53:34, or 1.56:1)Bulger's TD:INT ratio in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 2.3:1, 1:1, 1.5:1 (total = 57:42, or 1.36:1)
One thing that stands out to me greatly is that in every category listed Schaub is steadily improving year or over year. It will be interesting to see what Schaub does this year if he can continue such a progression. It will be hard to top as he already had a pretty stellar year.
 
Matt Schaub has performed at a much higher level than you're suggesting here. Over the last 3 years, Chase's famed adjusted net yards/attempt has climbed and he's 6th overall in the CAREER list in that category amongst all QBs. Of course, Rivers is 2nd and I'm not saying Schaub is better than Rivers necessarily but that the difference between the 2 is significantly closer than what you seem to think.

ANY/A Career Leaders

8th in career yards/attempt

11th in career passer rating

As nice of numbers as Bulger put up in a system friendly, he's not ranked anywhere near those #'s. Schaub is significantly better and more talented and more productive than Bulger.
Schaub's QB rating in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 87.2, 92.7, 98.6 (mean = 92.8)Bulger's QB rating in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 101.5, 81.4, 93.7 (mean = 92.2)

Schaub's YPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 7.8, 8.0, 8.2 (mean = 8.0)

Bulger's YPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 8.5, 7.2, 8.2 (mean = 8.0)

Schaub's AYPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 7.0, 7.6, 8.0 (mean = 7.5)

Bulger's AYPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 8.6, 6.2, 7.7 (mean = 7.5)

Schaub's YPG in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 203.7, 276.6, 298.1 (average = 264.6)

Bulger's YPG in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 260.9, 256.3, 283.1 (average = 267.6)

Schaub's TD:INT ratio in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 1:1, 1.5:1, 1.9:1 (total = 53:34, or 1.56:1)

Bulger's TD:INT ratio in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 2.3:1, 1:1, 1.5:1 (total = 57:42, or 1.36:1)

Bulger's career numbers don't rank anywhere near Schaub's because for the last 3 seasons he's played for a terrible team and his numbers have tanked, but through 5 years Bulger's career stats ranked just as high as Schaub's rank now. And that kind of proves my point- Bulger was awesome when he had a great team and a great system backing him up. When he didn't, he wasn't. That's why it's folly to rate Schaub over Rivers at this point. Schaub is a less talented QB deriving a larger percentage of his value from his situation, which is subject to change.

I say this as a former Schaub owner who drafted him in the 15th round of our startup three years ago, rode his underrated production for years... and then traded him the second his perceived value outstripped my opinions of his talent.

Well Gian - Who was the QB there before Schaub? Did he get sacked alot? Do you think Schaub's following behind and getting lit up and hurt a couple years in a row might indicate he is an injury risk?

You are sticking your head in the sand if you think Schaub doesn't present a greater injury risk than other top tier QB's.
My head must be in the sand, too. When defenders get fined THREE TIMES IN A SINGLE SEASON for dirty hits on you, and one of those dirty hits takes you out for a couple of games, I'm just crazy enough to not assume that it means you're injury prone or made of glass. "Oh man, that Matt Schaub is a total glassman- why can't he just take a hit THAT THE NFL HAS OUTLAWED BECAUSE IT CAUSES INJURIES without getting injured?".
Point well taken :thumbup:

I would only submit that Schaub's situation isn't as good as Bulger's was. Aside from AJ (which granted is a SIGNIFICANT weapon), I don't think his supporting cast is that spectacular. Owen Daniels is nice, but then what? Bulger had Faulk (and then S. Jackson in 2005), Holt, and Bruce to work with. You may indeed be correct on him being more situational than talented, but I've personally liked what I've seen. It'll be interesting to see how the rest of his career plays out. Other than that, they are definitely closer than I initially suspected.

 
Matt Schaub has performed at a much higher level than you're suggesting here. Over the last 3 years, Chase's famed adjusted net yards/attempt has climbed and he's 6th overall in the CAREER list in that category amongst all QBs. Of course, Rivers is 2nd and I'm not saying Schaub is better than Rivers necessarily but that the difference between the 2 is significantly closer than what you seem to think.

ANY/A Career Leaders

8th in career yards/attempt

11th in career passer rating

As nice of numbers as Bulger put up in a system friendly, he's not ranked anywhere near those #'s. Schaub is significantly better and more talented and more productive than Bulger.
Schaub's QB rating in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 87.2, 92.7, 98.6 (mean = 92.8)Bulger's QB rating in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 101.5, 81.4, 93.7 (mean = 92.2)

Schaub's YPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 7.8, 8.0, 8.2 (mean = 8.0)

Bulger's YPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 8.5, 7.2, 8.2 (mean = 8.0)

Schaub's AYPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 7.0, 7.6, 8.0 (mean = 7.5)

Bulger's AYPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 8.6, 6.2, 7.7 (mean = 7.5)

Schaub's YPG in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 203.7, 276.6, 298.1 (average = 264.6)

Bulger's YPG in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 260.9, 256.3, 283.1 (average = 267.6)

Schaub's TD:INT ratio in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 1:1, 1.5:1, 1.9:1 (total = 53:34, or 1.56:1)

Bulger's TD:INT ratio in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 2.3:1, 1:1, 1.5:1 (total = 57:42, or 1.36:1)

Bulger's career numbers don't rank anywhere near Schaub's because for the last 3 seasons he's played for a terrible team and his numbers have tanked, but through 5 years Bulger's career stats ranked just as high as Schaub's rank now. And that kind of proves my point- Bulger was awesome when he had a great team and a great system backing him up. When he didn't, he wasn't. That's why it's folly to rate Schaub over Rivers at this point. Schaub is a less talented QB deriving a larger percentage of his value from his situation, which is subject to change.

I say this as a former Schaub owner who drafted him in the 15th round of our startup three years ago, rode his underrated production for years... and then traded him the second his perceived value outstripped my opinions of his talent.

Well Gian - Who was the QB there before Schaub? Did he get sacked alot? Do you think Schaub's following behind and getting lit up and hurt a couple years in a row might indicate he is an injury risk?

You are sticking your head in the sand if you think Schaub doesn't present a greater injury risk than other top tier QB's.
My head must be in the sand, too. When defenders get fined THREE TIMES IN A SINGLE SEASON for dirty hits on you, and one of those dirty hits takes you out for a couple of games, I'm just crazy enough to not assume that it means you're injury prone or made of glass. "Oh man, that Matt Schaub is a total glassman- why can't he just take a hit THAT THE NFL HAS OUTLAWED BECAUSE IT CAUSES INJURIES without getting injured?".
Point well taken :)

I would only submit that Schaub's situation isn't as good as Bulger's was. Aside from AJ (which granted is a SIGNIFICANT weapon), I don't think his supporting cast is that spectacular. Owen Daniels is nice, but then what? Bulger had Faulk (and then S. Jackson in 2005), Holt, and Bruce to work with. You may indeed be correct on him being more situational than talented, but I've personally liked what I've seen. It'll be interesting to see how the rest of his career plays out. Other than that, they are definitely closer than I initially suspected.
Dont forget Martz. He has made more than a few QB's look better than they might have been. It might not be a coincidence that Bulger had his worst seasons a year after Martz left.
 
Schaub's QB rating in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 87.2, 92.7, 98.6 (mean = 92.8)Bulger's QB rating in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 101.5, 81.4, 93.7 (mean = 92.2)Schaub's YPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 7.8, 8.0, 8.2 (mean = 8.0)Bulger's YPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 8.5, 7.2, 8.2 (mean = 8.0)Schaub's AYPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 7.0, 7.6, 8.0 (mean = 7.5)Bulger's AYPA in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 8.6, 6.2, 7.7 (mean = 7.5)Schaub's YPG in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 203.7, 276.6, 298.1 (average = 264.6)Bulger's YPG in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 260.9, 256.3, 283.1 (average = 267.6)Schaub's TD:INT ratio in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 1:1, 1.5:1, 1.9:1 (total = 53:34, or 1.56:1)Bulger's TD:INT ratio in his first 3 seasons as a starter: 2.3:1, 1:1, 1.5:1 (total = 57:42, or 1.36:1)
One thing that stands out to me greatly is that in every category listed Schaub is steadily improving year or over year. It will be interesting to see what Schaub does this year if he can continue such a progression. It will be hard to top as he already had a pretty stellar year.
I was going to say the same thing- I would certainly prefer Schaub's numbers over Bulger's in this example, due to the trends. There's no way he can continue that progression, unless he becomes a record-setting QB, but if he can hold steady, he'll be a top 5 FF QB in dynasty. I think most people are almost there on him, but want to see a little bit more- if he puts up another great year and stays healthy, he'll be in just about everyone's top 5. If he regresses somewhat and/or misses time, he'll drop quite a bit. I think he's valued just about right, in the #5-#8 QB range, until we see it again.
 
Dont forget Martz. He has made more than a few QB's look better than they might have been. It might not be a coincidence that Bulger had his worst seasons a year after Martz left.
And what's Gary Kubiak? Chopped liver? John Elway, Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, David Carr, and Matt Schaub have all had the best seasons of their careers under Koobs.
I was going to say the same thing- I would certainly prefer Schaub's numbers over Bulger's in this example, due to the trends. There's no way he can continue that progression, unless he becomes a record-setting QB, but if he can hold steady, he'll be a top 5 FF QB in dynasty. I think most people are almost there on him, but want to see a little bit more- if he puts up another great year and stays healthy, he'll be in just about everyone's top 5. If he regresses somewhat and/or misses time, he'll drop quite a bit. I think he's valued just about right, in the #5-#8 QB range, until we see it again.
The only reason why the trends seem to favor Schaub is because I ended the comparison at 3 seasons. Here are Bulger's numbers over his 4th and 5th season-Year 4 = 94.4 QB rating, 8.0 ypa, 7.6 AYPA, 287.1 ypg, 14:9 TD:INT ratio.Year 5 = 92.9 QB rating, 7.3 ypa, 7.5 AYPA, 268.8 ypg, 24:8 TD:INT ratio.Basically, Bulger's first five years were all phenomenal except for an aberrational season in year 2. If you only look at the first 3 seasons, it looks like he's all over the map. If you look at the first 5 seasons, it looks like he was consistently awesome with one fluky "just good" year thrown in.I don't need to see it again from Schaub in order to rank him higher. He's already been showing it for 3 years now. He's got plenty of track record. The only thing holding him out of the top 5, for me, is the lack of perceived talent.
 
Dont forget Martz. He has made more than a few QB's look better than they might have been. It might not be a coincidence that Bulger had his worst seasons a year after Martz left.
And what's Gary Kubiak? Chopped liver? John Elway, Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, David Carr, and Matt Schaub have all had the best seasons of their careers under Koobs.
I was going to say the same thing- I would certainly prefer Schaub's numbers over Bulger's in this example, due to the trends. There's no way he can continue that progression, unless he becomes a record-setting QB, but if he can hold steady, he'll be a top 5 FF QB in dynasty. I think most people are almost there on him, but want to see a little bit more- if he puts up another great year and stays healthy, he'll be in just about everyone's top 5. If he regresses somewhat and/or misses time, he'll drop quite a bit. I think he's valued just about right, in the #5-#8 QB range, until we see it again.
The only reason why the trends seem to favor Schaub is because I ended the comparison at 3 seasons. Here are Bulger's numbers over his 4th and 5th season-Year 4 = 94.4 QB rating, 8.0 ypa, 7.6 AYPA, 287.1 ypg, 14:9 TD:INT ratio.Year 5 = 92.9 QB rating, 7.3 ypa, 7.5 AYPA, 268.8 ypg, 24:8 TD:INT ratio.Basically, Bulger's first five years were all phenomenal except for an aberrational season in year 2. If you only look at the first 3 seasons, it looks like he's all over the map. If you look at the first 5 seasons, it looks like he was consistently awesome with one fluky "just good" year thrown in.I don't need to see it again from Schaub in order to rank him higher. He's already been showing it for 3 years now. He's got plenty of track record. The only thing holding him out of the top 5, for me, is the lack of perceived talent.
Still, if you're comparing apples to apples, it makes sense to only look at their first 3 seasons as a starter (since that's all you have to go on with Schaub). Looking at those numbers for each, I'll take Schaub every day of the week. Now if Schaub regresses and has a "just okay" season this year, then maybe it's a better comparison, but right now, Schaub has shown much better progression in his career than Bulger did at the same stage. Plus, Schaub just had a FF season better than any Bulger had in his career.I can see where you're coming from, and I agree that Schaub isn't an elite talent, but I think he is certainly better than Bulger. Maybe not you (nor I, for that matter), but I still think most people need to see it from Schaub again. Yes, he's been good for 3 seasons, but he's only been great (in FF terms specifically) for 1. This year will go a long way in determining his status for most people IMO.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dont forget Martz. He has made more than a few QB's look better than they might have been. It might not be a coincidence that Bulger had his worst seasons a year after Martz left.
And what's Gary Kubiak? Chopped liver? John Elway, Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, David Carr, and Matt Schaub have all had the best seasons of their careers under Koobs.
I was going to say the same thing- I would certainly prefer Schaub's numbers over Bulger's in this example, due to the trends. There's no way he can continue that progression, unless he becomes a record-setting QB, but if he can hold steady, he'll be a top 5 FF QB in dynasty. I think most people are almost there on him, but want to see a little bit more- if he puts up another great year and stays healthy, he'll be in just about everyone's top 5. If he regresses somewhat and/or misses time, he'll drop quite a bit. I think he's valued just about right, in the #5-#8 QB range, until we see it again.
The only reason why the trends seem to favor Schaub is because I ended the comparison at 3 seasons. Here are Bulger's numbers over his 4th and 5th season-Year 4 = 94.4 QB rating, 8.0 ypa, 7.6 AYPA, 287.1 ypg, 14:9 TD:INT ratio.

Year 5 = 92.9 QB rating, 7.3 ypa, 7.5 AYPA, 268.8 ypg, 24:8 TD:INT ratio.

Basically, Bulger's first five years were all phenomenal except for an aberrational season in year 2. If you only look at the first 3 seasons, it looks like he's all over the map. If you look at the first 5 seasons, it looks like he was consistently awesome with one fluky "just good" year thrown in.

I don't need to see it again from Schaub in order to rank him higher. He's already been showing it for 3 years now. He's got plenty of track record. The only thing holding him out of the top 5, for me, is the lack of perceived talent.
Still, if you're comparing apples to apples, it makes sense to only look at their first 3 seasons as a starter (since that's all you have to go on with Schaub). Looking at those numbers for each, I'll take Schaub every day of the week. Now if Schaub regresses and has a "just okay" season this year, then maybe it's a better comparison, but right now, Schaub has shown much better progression in his career than Bulger did at the same stage. Plus, Schaub just had a FF season better than any Bulger had in his career.I can see where you're coming from, and I agree that Schaub isn't an elite talent, but I think he is certainly better than Bulger. Maybe not you (nor I, for that matter), but I still think most people need to see it from Schaub again. Yes, he's been good for 3 seasons, but he's only been great (in FF terms specifically) for 1. This year will go a long way in determining his status for most people IMO.
I would credit that more to Shanahan, so that leaves us with Carr, and what did his numbers look like that season?
 
I would credit that more to Shanahan, so that leaves us with Carr, and what did his numbers look like that season?
You might credit it more to Shanahan, and I'm sure Shanahan had something to do with it, but Kubiak was the #1 guy who spent the most time working with the QBs. Shanahan had a team to run. Besides, what happened to Jake Plummer when Kubiak left Denver? And what do you mean "that leaves us with Carr"? What happened to Matt Schaub?Personally, I think both Kubiak and Shanahan are QB gurus extraordinaire whose track records speak for themselves. Schaub currently plays in an extremely friendly situation, and that's not just a function of Andre Johnson.
 
gianmarco said:
Just Win Baby said:
Schaub is an easy grab at the right price. However, I've seen him up along side some far far talented players in drafts in terms of value, and all the factors combined, including injury risk, would just as easily decide for me that it would be better waiting a bit and grabbing a Rivers, who I think is a superior talent, or Roethlisberger.
Injury risk? You mean because he plays football? Or because getting a separated shoulder (not a lingering injury) back in 2007 and a sprained MCL from a dirty hit by Jared Allen (not a lingering injury) mean his body is built differently? I guess Tom Brady and Carson Palmer and Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers are injury risks too.
One can certainly take the stance that every football player is an injury risk. But Rivers started 51 (of 51) games in college, which at the time was a NCAA record, and has not missed a game in the NFL due to injury. So IMO it is fair to say he is a lesser injury risk than most other QBs. Schaub has been injured multiple times and missed a lot of games due to that... you can make the case that he is not as injury prone as he is made out to be, but he is certainly more injury prone than Rivers.
You can read my post above, but Schaub has more of an injury HISTORY than Rivers. That doesn't mean he's more injury prone. When you compare things that put QBs at risk of being injured (rushing attempts/yds and sacks), then Schaub is actually the same or less likely to be injured than Rivers. Previous injuries aren't a predictor of future injuries except in the case of lingering injuries (which Schaub doesn't have). Now, add in a few concussions or a reconstructed knee and I'll gladly submit that he will be at a higher future risk. But not because of a strained knee ligament and a separated shoulder all over 2 yrs ago.
I understand the point you are trying to make, but we'll have to agree to disagree. Schaub missed multiple games as a college senior due to a shoulder injury. So far, he has missed one NFL game due to a concussion, 4 NFL games due to a shoulder injury, and 5 NFL games due to a MCL injury. He also left last season's third preseason game early after hurting his ankle and didn't play in the 4th preseason game; no big deal, but another injury nonetheless. That is 5 documented injuries in his last 4 years as a starting QB (college and NFL). To say he isn't a higher injury risk than players who have never missed a game due to injury is off base IMO.You've said you think he has the same injury risk or less than Rivers, who hasn't missed a game in 8 years as a starter (college and NFL). Do you think he has the same or less risk than Favre and Peyton Manning too? I think you have a valid point that his susceptibility to injury is overstated, but you are in turn taking it too far the other way.

 
You've said you think he has the same injury risk or less than Rivers, who hasn't missed a game in 8 years as a starter (college and NFL). Do you think he has the same or less risk than Favre and Peyton Manning too? I think you have a valid point that his susceptibility to injury is overstated, but you are in turn taking it too far the other way.
First of all, while Rivers may not have missed a game, he's been injured as well.
While confirming that he needs surgery on his torn right anterior cruciate ligament, the quarterback revealed for the first time that he had arthroscopic surgery to clean out the joint a week earlier in order to play in the AFC Championship Game.
In fact, his injury is more concerning to me than any of Schaub's except for the concussion. Sure, it's a great thing he played, but that's mostly because of it being a championship game. But, the fact remains he suffered a pretty significant injury. As to Favre and Manning, definitely more risk. But I'd say that about ANY QB not named Favre or Manning. Favre is an ironman, plain and simple. He's actually suffered injuries but his playing streak is remarkable. As for Peyton, the reason I consider him far less of an injury risk is the fact that he's only been sacked over 20 times only once in the last 7 years. Combine that with the fact that he never rushes and he's certainly less of an injury risk than your average QB. To me, there's 2 things that put a QB at increased injury risk. Mobile QBs and QBs who play behind crappy O-lines. QBs that rush or leave the pocket frequently are at more risk to get hits and thus to get injured. This is why QBs like Rodgers, McNabb, V. Young, Cutler, and Campbell are at an increased risk of getting hurt compared to Peyton or Brees. As for the O-lines, looking at sack totals is a good indicator.Neither Schaub nor Rivers run that much nor get sacked that much. But, Peyton does less of both, i.e., definitely less of an injury risk. Same goes for Brees.I get what you're trying to say, but there's not much about his injuries to suggest he's at risk for them to keep happening. Now, maybe, while it's not showing up as sacks, he's holding the ball longer than other QBs and getting hit more than other QBs. If that were the case, then I'd agree he's at a higher risk and it may explain why he's been injured more than other QBs. Maybe Texans homers who watch him more than me can attest to that. I don't remember that standing out but I haven't watched him under close scrutiny aside from normal viewing habits. I guess adding to the previous 2 risk factors would be slow/late release and hanging in the pocket until the last moment combined with a smaller stature, but at this point, we're nitpicking. I'm not saying this stuff because I'm the #1 Schaub fan. I like the guy, I think he's one of the top 6-8 fantasy QBs to own, but it's not as if I'm trying to hype him up. I only own the guy in one league. I have Rodgers as the #1 fantasy QB. That said, even though Rodgers has missed less time due to injury than Schaub, I consider him far more at risk to get injured than Schaub. Same goes for Cutler, esp. with Martz in town. Even if you want to downgrade Schaub as an injury risk (which I don't), that downgrade should be so minimal that it would really be inconsequential and should only be used as a tiebreaker. I've got Rivers and Schaub about dead-even in terms of QB dynasty ranks and injury risk isn't what I'd used as a tiebreaker between those 2.
 
I understand the point you are trying to make, but we'll have to agree to disagree. Schaub missed multiple games as a college senior due to a shoulder injury. So far, he has missed one NFL game due to a concussion, 4 NFL games due to a shoulder injury, and 5 NFL games due to a MCL injury. He also left last season's third preseason game early after hurting his ankle and didn't play in the 4th preseason game; no big deal, but another injury nonetheless. That is 5 documented injuries in his last 4 years as a starting QB (college and NFL). To say he isn't a higher injury risk than players who have never missed a game due to injury is off base IMO.You've said you think he has the same injury risk or less than Rivers, who hasn't missed a game in 8 years as a starter (college and NFL). Do you think he has the same or less risk than Favre and Peyton Manning too? I think you have a valid point that his susceptibility to injury is overstated, but you are in turn taking it too far the other way.
Yes, Schaub has had a number of injuries above what you would expect the average QB to endure over that time span. However, what common thread or indicators exist in those injuries that would lead us assume that he has an increased chance of injury in the future? To me, nothing in that list portends that he is anything more than a victim of bad luck. Is there a reason why you think that these different (and seemingly unrelated) injuries indicate an increased likelihood of injury going forward?
 
Yes, Schaub has had a number of injuries above what you would expect the average QB to endure over that time span. However, what common thread or indicators exist in those injuries that would lead us assume that he has an increased chance of injury in the future?
Same body. I'm kind of joking... kind of. Not all bodies are created equal.Seriously, Schaub has not taken appreciably more hits than other QBs since he became an NFL starter. In fact, he's taken less hits than many starters since he has missed 10 games over those 3 seasons. Yet most of his peers have proven to be more durable. I attribute that to more than just bad luck.:lol:All that said, I initially responded because I disagree with the statement that Schaub is no more of an injury risk than Rivers. IMO that is off base. I don't want to continue debating it... I think it's reached the point where we should agree to disagree.
 
You've said you think he has the same injury risk or less than Rivers, who hasn't missed a game in 8 years as a starter (college and NFL). Do you think he has the same or less risk than Favre and Peyton Manning too? I think you have a valid point that his susceptibility to injury is overstated, but you are in turn taking it too far the other way.
First of all, while Rivers may not have missed a game, he's been injured as well.
Perhaps, but since we play FF, I'd rather have a player who plays through an injury than one who comes out of, and misses games. With some injuries, it comes down to toughness and willingness to play through/with pain. Obviously this doesn't apply to all injuries, but it does suggest a diffenernce in pain tolerance. Now there are some exceptions to this point as well. Currently, for example, it is becoming known that Matt Forte had a torn hamstring last summer and an right MCL injury in week 3 - both of which he played through. I am sure, some owners had wished (due to his mediocre production), that he had taken some time off and healed. From a FF perspective, in that case, you'd rather know you have to start someone else, than trot out a guy who can only, well, trot.

On the other side of the argument you have players like Antonio Gates and Brian Westbrook. Gates played threw nagging foot injuries last year and produced at a very high level. Westy has had well documented knee problems, and has sat out numerous practices as a result - often being a dreaded GTD. But he almost always dressed on Sundays and typically produced well. Personally, I think Rivers is more in this vain (and frankly, since quickness and cutting aren't part of a QBs games, there are certain injuries that QBs should be able to play through that RBs and WRs simply cannot and still be effective due to the differences of physicla demands at the positions)

 
You've said you think he has the same injury risk or less than Rivers, who hasn't missed a game in 8 years as a starter (college and NFL). Do you think he has the same or less risk than Favre and Peyton Manning too? I think you have a valid point that his susceptibility to injury is overstated, but you are in turn taking it too far the other way.
First of all, while Rivers may not have missed a game, he's been injured as well.
While confirming that he needs surgery on his torn right anterior cruciate ligament, the quarterback revealed for the first time that he had arthroscopic surgery to clean out the joint a week earlier in order to play in the AFC Championship Game.
In fact, his injury is more concerning to me than any of Schaub's except for the concussion. Sure, it's a great thing he played, but that's mostly because of it being a championship game. But, the fact remains he suffered a pretty significant injury. As to Favre and Manning, definitely more risk. But I'd say that about ANY QB not named Favre or Manning. Favre is an ironman, plain and simple. He's actually suffered injuries but his playing streak is remarkable. As for Peyton, the reason I consider him far less of an injury risk is the fact that he's only been sacked over 20 times only once in the last 7 years. Combine that with the fact that he never rushes and he's certainly less of an injury risk than your average QB.

To me, there's 2 things that put a QB at increased injury risk. Mobile QBs and QBs who play behind crappy O-lines. QBs that rush or leave the pocket frequently are at more risk to get hits and thus to get injured. This is why QBs like Rodgers, McNabb, V. Young, Cutler, and Campbell are at an increased risk of getting hurt compared to Peyton or Brees. As for the O-lines, looking at sack totals is a good indicator.

Neither Schaub nor Rivers run that much nor get sacked that much. But, Peyton does less of both, i.e., definitely less of an injury risk. Same goes for Brees.

I get what you're trying to say, but there's not much about his injuries to suggest he's at risk for them to keep happening. Now, maybe, while it's not showing up as sacks, he's holding the ball longer than other QBs and getting hit more than other QBs. If that were the case, then I'd agree he's at a higher risk and it may explain why he's been injured more than other QBs. Maybe Texans homers who watch him more than me can attest to that. I don't remember that standing out but I haven't watched him under close scrutiny aside from normal viewing habits. I guess adding to the previous 2 risk factors would be slow/late release and hanging in the pocket until the last moment combined with a smaller stature, but at this point, we're nitpicking.

I'm not saying this stuff because I'm the #1 Schaub fan. I like the guy, I think he's one of the top 6-8 fantasy QBs to own, but it's not as if I'm trying to hype him up. I only own the guy in one league. I have Rodgers as the #1 fantasy QB. That said, even though Rodgers has missed less time due to injury than Schaub, I consider him far more at risk to get injured than Schaub. Same goes for Cutler, esp. with Martz in town.

Even if you want to downgrade Schaub as an injury risk (which I don't), that downgrade should be so minimal that it would really be inconsequential and should only be used as a tiebreaker. I've got Rivers and Schaub about dead-even in terms of QB dynasty ranks and injury risk isn't what I'd used as a tiebreaker between those 2.
So Schaub's O-line is so much better that he will not be sacked as much as before? Making him no less of a threat any other QB?
 
You've said you think he has the same injury risk or less than Rivers, who hasn't missed a game in 8 years as a starter (college and NFL). Do you think he has the same or less risk than Favre and Peyton Manning too? I think you have a valid point that his susceptibility to injury is overstated, but you are in turn taking it too far the other way.
First of all, while Rivers may not have missed a game, he's been injured as well.
While confirming that he needs surgery on his torn right anterior cruciate ligament, the quarterback revealed for the first time that he had arthroscopic surgery to clean out the joint a week earlier in order to play in the AFC Championship Game.
In fact, his injury is more concerning to me than any of Schaub's except for the concussion. Sure, it's a great thing he played, but that's mostly because of it being a championship game. But, the fact remains he suffered a pretty significant injury. As to Favre and Manning, definitely more risk. But I'd say that about ANY QB not named Favre or Manning. Favre is an ironman, plain and simple. He's actually suffered injuries but his playing streak is remarkable. As for Peyton, the reason I consider him far less of an injury risk is the fact that he's only been sacked over 20 times only once in the last 7 years. Combine that with the fact that he never rushes and he's certainly less of an injury risk than your average QB.

To me, there's 2 things that put a QB at increased injury risk. Mobile QBs and QBs who play behind crappy O-lines. QBs that rush or leave the pocket frequently are at more risk to get hits and thus to get injured. This is why QBs like Rodgers, McNabb, V. Young, Cutler, and Campbell are at an increased risk of getting hurt compared to Peyton or Brees. As for the O-lines, looking at sack totals is a good indicator.

Neither Schaub nor Rivers run that much nor get sacked that much. But, Peyton does less of both, i.e., definitely less of an injury risk. Same goes for Brees.

I get what you're trying to say, but there's not much about his injuries to suggest he's at risk for them to keep happening. Now, maybe, while it's not showing up as sacks, he's holding the ball longer than other QBs and getting hit more than other QBs. If that were the case, then I'd agree he's at a higher risk and it may explain why he's been injured more than other QBs. Maybe Texans homers who watch him more than me can attest to that. I don't remember that standing out but I haven't watched him under close scrutiny aside from normal viewing habits. I guess adding to the previous 2 risk factors would be slow/late release and hanging in the pocket until the last moment combined with a smaller stature, but at this point, we're nitpicking.

I'm not saying this stuff because I'm the #1 Schaub fan. I like the guy, I think he's one of the top 6-8 fantasy QBs to own, but it's not as if I'm trying to hype him up. I only own the guy in one league. I have Rodgers as the #1 fantasy QB. That said, even though Rodgers has missed less time due to injury than Schaub, I consider him far more at risk to get injured than Schaub. Same goes for Cutler, esp. with Martz in town.

Even if you want to downgrade Schaub as an injury risk (which I don't), that downgrade should be so minimal that it would really be inconsequential and should only be used as a tiebreaker. I've got Rivers and Schaub about dead-even in terms of QB dynasty ranks and injury risk isn't what I'd used as a tiebreaker between those 2.
So Schaub's O-line is so much better that he will not be sacked as much as before? Making him no less of a threat any other QB?
He was sacked 16 times in 2007 (11 games)He was sacked 23 times in 2008 (11 games)

He was sacked 25 times in 2009

In 2009, only 4 teams allowed fewer sacks than Houston (Indy, Tenn, NE, and NO).

In 2008, they were average at 16th in sacks allowed.

For comparsion, Rivers was sacked 25, 25, and 22 times in the last 3 years.

So yeah, his injury risk due to sacks is actually pretty low compared to most other QBs in the league, especially judging by last year when they were the 5th best team in allowing sacks. He doesn't need to be sacked less than before. He can be sacked the same amount and it would still be a low amount compared to the rest of the league.

Now compare that to the following guys from last year:

Rodgers -- 51 sacks (twice as much)

Big Ben -- 50 sacks (twice as much)

Campbell -- 46 sacks (will be McNabb this year)

Garrard -- 44 sacks

Stafford -- 43 sacks

The bottom 11 teams in the NFL allowed 40 or more sacks. Now factor in that the QBs I pointed out above also run more than both Rivers and Schaub and I'd say they all have higher injury risks for sure.

To me, those factors are for more important in trying to predict future injury than looking at previous injuries that aren't lingering injuries (like separated shoulders or strained MCL's). Concussions are a different story but he's only suffered one. If he were to suffer a couple more, then he'd definitely be moved into the injury risk category as previous concussions put someone at risk for future concussions.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
There have been a few odd Rivers trades lately in the offseason dynasty thread, so I thought I'd bring it up in here for some discussion.

With how high we all seem to be on VJax, what's goin on with Rivers? He's been getting more done with less for a couple seasons now, and is extremely efficient. Do we see more attempts coming?

I have him right here:

Rodgers

Manning

Brees

Rivers

Romo

Schaub

Brady

Why is he being traded around so much recently?
Rivers might be ahead of only Brady on this list......Might
Please. Matt Schaub is Marc Bulger v2.0. Rodgers and Brees are both no-brainer picks over Rivers in Dynasty, and I can see a strong argument for Manning (6 years older, but in my humble opinion the greatest QB to ever play) and Romo (not as good as Rivers, but great weapons)... but anyone who takes Schaub over Rivers is asking for trouble, imo.
Given their current situations, I strongly sense that Schaub will significantly outperform Rivers over the next couple of seasons, which is about as far of a window as I want to look for my dynasty QB. He has the top WR in the game in his prime, a very dynamic passing game coordinated under Kubiak with young, talented, hungry guys ready to emerge onto the scene (Jacoby, Dickerson, Graham, Casey), not to mention Tate/Slaton, Walter, and O.D. as viable receiving options. Rivers is stuck behind a putrid O-line, an aging and soon-to-be declining Gates, and several guys immersed in contract quarrels and/or limbo.

Schaub over Rivers is also a no-brainer for me in 2010 dynasty startups. I'd rather pair up Schaub with a young QB like Sanchez/Stafford/Bradford than go with a younger Rivers and veteran backup(s)......

 
Last edited by a moderator:
This hits on a point I'd like to discuss. Initial dynasty drafts. I'm of the opinion that the most difficult picks in initial dynasty drafts are rounds 2-4. In my current draft, a 16-team league, I made a bold move. I traded rounds 2,3 AND 4 for an early pick in the 1st round...who I used on Andre Johnson. Then I teamed him with my other 1st, Calvin Johnson, to give me a studly dynasty duo. Some thought I overpaid, but I think I'll get the last laugh. Why? Because of the problems with 3rd and 4th round players.These rounds usually include the following categories:1. Aging players with limited long-term value: Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Ryan Grant2. Young, unproven players with question marks and unknown futures: Lesean McCoy, Knowshon, Felix Jones, Matt Forte.3. QB's. I'm of the opinion that in 1 QB leagues, once you get past the first 3-4, then you might as well wait awhile for your QB.If I had it to do over again, I'd do the same thing. In fact if I was ever going to be in another startup dynasty (I'm at 3, my limit right now), I'd try to do a similar move. Do all I can to move up and get 2 studs. Especially in a 16-team league (ppr), having Andre and Calvin is going to give me a huge advantage.
I was about to say you overpaid, but I missed that it was a 16-team league. In a 16-teamer, I think that's a fine strategy. To put some numbers to those picks... assuming you had, say, the #8 overall pick, then the 2nd/3rd/4th would be #25, #40, and #57. In a 12-teamer, that would be pick 3.01, 4.04, and 5.09, which seems like a much more palatable price to pay for Andre Johnson. Based on the FBGs consensus dynasty rankings, that's Steve Smith South, Lesean McCoy, and Matt Forte for Andre Johnson. That's a trade that I would very likely make in my dynasty league.
I totally agree. In a 10 or maybe even 12 team league, I'd never make the trade because obviously good talent would come back to me.In the format I was in, I was willing to overpay just a bit (that's what it took to get it done), and was fine with that.
 
I couldn't DISAGREE more with that line of thinking. In DYNASTY, it is those types of decisions in start-ups and trades that can make or break you for YEARS. A SECOND RD START-UP pick is VERY important NOT to miss on. I want at least 3-4 CORE players on my team and "missing" (what I mean by that, is taking a player who either underperforms the spot or is impacted in trade value negatively when compared to those drafted around him) on one is a BIG deal IMO. That's the whole difference between Dynasty and REDRAFT - You have these players for a long time.
This hits on a point I'd like to discuss. Initial dynasty drafts. I'm of the opinion that the most difficult picks in initial dynasty drafts are rounds 2-4. In my current draft, a 16-team league, I made a bold move. I traded rounds 2,3 AND 4 for an early pick in the 1st round...who I used on Andre Johnson. Then I teamed him with my other 1st, Calvin Johnson, to give me a studly dynasty duo. Some thought I overpaid, but I think I'll get the last laugh. Why? Because of the problems with 3rd and 4th round players.

These rounds usually include the following categories:

1. Aging players with limited long-term value: Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Ryan Grant

2. Young, unproven players with question marks and unknown futures: Lesean McCoy, Knowshon, Felix Jones, Matt Forte.

3. QB's. I'm of the opinion that in 1 QB leagues, once you get past the first 3-4, then you might as well wait awhile for your QB.

If I had it to do over again, I'd do the same thing. In fact if I was ever going to be in another startup dynasty (I'm at 3, my limit right now), I'd try to do a similar move. Do all I can to move up and get 2 studs. Especially in a 16-team league (ppr), having Andre and Calvin is going to give me a huge advantage.
I'm all for adding difference makers to your team, but I don't necessarily buy into the quality > quantity theory when it comes to dynasty rosters. Depth is hugely important because of the inevitable injuries and underperformance that will strike your starting lineup. For this reason I might prefer a package of "good" players over a single elite player, even with the understanding that "good" players are much easier to come by. If anything, I usually advocate trading out of the first round when possible because I think the difference between the guys ranked 5-30 is exaggerated. The players you pick in rounds 2-4 should be starters for your team. Without looking at any recent drafts, I'm guessing that those picks could've netted you a trio like Michael Crabtree, Jahvid Best, and Tony Romo. I can't say that I would prefer Andre Johnson to that package.
It's a good debate. I've always favored making the trade where I get the best player regardless. I realize that there is risk involved in that...if Andre gets hurt, then the trade was a disaster.But when you look at most dynasty drafts, rounds 2-4 are littered with horrible picks and guys who quickly became irrelevent.

 
I couldn't DISAGREE more with that line of thinking. In DYNASTY, it is those types of decisions in start-ups and trades that can make or break you for YEARS. A SECOND RD START-UP pick is VERY important NOT to miss on. I want at least 3-4 CORE players on my team and "missing" (what I mean by that, is taking a player who either underperforms the spot or is impacted in trade value negatively when compared to those drafted around him) on one is a BIG deal IMO. That's the whole difference between Dynasty and REDRAFT - You have these players for a long time.
This hits on a point I'd like to discuss. Initial dynasty drafts. I'm of the opinion that the most difficult picks in initial dynasty drafts are rounds 2-4. In my current draft, a 16-team league, I made a bold move. I traded rounds 2,3 AND 4 for an early pick in the 1st round...who I used on Andre Johnson. Then I teamed him with my other 1st, Calvin Johnson, to give me a studly dynasty duo. Some thought I overpaid, but I think I'll get the last laugh. Why? Because of the problems with 3rd and 4th round players.

These rounds usually include the following categories:

1. Aging players with limited long-term value: Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Ryan Grant

2. Young, unproven players with question marks and unknown futures: Lesean McCoy, Knowshon, Felix Jones, Matt Forte.

3. QB's. I'm of the opinion that in 1 QB leagues, once you get past the first 3-4, then you might as well wait awhile for your QB.

If I had it to do over again, I'd do the same thing. In fact if I was ever going to be in another startup dynasty (I'm at 3, my limit right now), I'd try to do a similar move. Do all I can to move up and get 2 studs. Especially in a 16-team league (ppr), having Andre and Calvin is going to give me a huge advantage.
I'm all for adding difference makers to your team, but I don't necessarily buy into the quality > quantity theory when it comes to dynasty rosters. Depth is hugely important because of the inevitable injuries and underperformance that will strike your starting lineup. For this reason I might prefer a package of "good" players over a single elite player, even with the understanding that "good" players are much easier to come by. If anything, I usually advocate trading out of the first round when possible because I think the difference between the guys ranked 5-30 is exaggerated. The players you pick in rounds 2-4 should be starters for your team. Without looking at any recent drafts, I'm guessing that those picks could've netted you a trio like Michael Crabtree, Jahvid Best, and Tony Romo. I can't say that I would prefer Andre Johnson to that package.
I agree with you here EBF.

I generally like to trade out of the first and then trade before a certain "drop off" I see in talent. But the reason I prefer quantity over quality is because in startup drafts it allows for more flexability.

In the above scenario....you have Calvin and AJ. Great....but you don't have another pick until the 5th round(in a 16 teamer is 6th round value) and you don't have a QB/RB/TE or WR3. So you will feel pressured to take guys that hit on those picks and more likely veterans to win now....which could lose out on in future years from lacking depth and/or youth.

However with trading down....you can take risks on players(like QB early, rookies, TE early, stacking a bunch of quality at RB or WR, etc) b/c you have the extra picks.
That's a great point. You have to really have confidence in yourself when you make a move like this.In a PPR league, RB is a position I don't value at all. I mean, I know it's important...but I know that finding a solid RB is very easy. Finding a stud WR is not.

In this particular league, I actually then traded back up into round 2, and grabbed Wayne. Then I used Wayne and traded down and picked up Maclin. My next pick was Ocho Cinco. Since I had nabbed Dez Bryant in the rookie draft, that gave me 5 stud WR's. Now I'm REALLY behind in RB, but no one can even come close at WR. And I was able to get Big Ben and Favre later in the draft, assuring me a top ten QB for the season, assuming Favre comes back.

One thing I learned from a league I joined last year with a number of guys in this thread...is that in many leagues, you can't "outdraft" the other owners straight up. You have to create your own advantages.

 
That's a great point. You have to really have confidence in yourself when you make a move like this.In a PPR league, RB is a position I don't value at all. I mean, I know it's important...but I know that finding a solid RB is very easy. Finding a stud WR is not. In this particular league, I actually then traded back up into round 2, and grabbed Wayne. Then I used Wayne and traded down and picked up Maclin. My next pick was Ocho Cinco. Since I had nabbed Dez Bryant in the rookie draft, that gave me 5 stud WR's. Now I'm REALLY behind in RB, but no one can even come close at WR. And I was able to get Big Ben and Favre later in the draft, assuring me a top ten QB for the season, assuming Favre comes back. One thing I learned from a league I joined last year with a number of guys in this thread...is that in many leagues, you can't "outdraft" the other owners straight up. You have to create your own advantages.
The nice thing about those particular moves is that you don't really have to worry about who your RB1 is. With that team, it's probably Mark Ingram.I wouldn't have drafted Favre, though. I would have committed more fully to the "Year N+1" strategy and used the roster spot on a flier with upside. I doubt you're winning anything this year without any RBs, so all Favre is doing is making your rookie pick next year worse (and lessening your chances of getting Ingram).
 
Just to put a little bit more life into the Jamaal Charles Bandwagon for this year...

I was playin basketball tonight at the local gym when this huge guy walks in with 4 kids about 15/16 years old. They play us the next game (we win) and then we're all sittin on the bench afterwards, and somebody asks him how big he is. He replies "325" and the guy is amazed, because he was movin up and down the court as fast as the rest of us, and he had amazing footwork. The next logical question is, "Do you play football?"

He says, "Yeah, I've played for a long time, this'll be my 7th year I think...I was with Cincy for a while, but now I'm with Kansas City. I got hurt last year, which [sucked]." So we keep talking, and get into a chat about football. He starts talking about RBs. He says the following:

1. He gets to play against all the RBs, and he said he was amazed how bad Cedric Benson was in Chicago and how hated he was, because he was great when they wer eon Cincy together. He says that Benson is Rudi Johnson with more power. And then he made a joke: "I'm the big tackle, Rudi never got through me in practice. Ced did more than once."

2. He didn't understand why Jerome Harrison didn't get more carries either. He said the guy is BUILT and always did extremely well in practice. Then he made another joke: "Of course, our defense there wasn't too great against other teams, so maybe that was it."

3. "Jamaal Charles is easily the best runner I've ever gotten to play with. And I spent a lot of time against Jamal Lewis, Rudi, Ced, Willie Parker, and McGahee over in Baltimore for a few years. None of them come close to this guy."

4. He said that Jamaal looks great, when I asked about the shoulder thing. He said that he (Charles) is intense, but he's funny in the lockerroom and said he'll be there for training camp. Apparently he's a great guy.

Overall, I was surprised at hwo well he handled all the stuff I asked. We talked for a long time between games, and he did not get tired. I was amazed, he wasn't even breathing any harder than me after a few games, and I'm pretty damn fit. I guess a lot of people don't ask as many questions as I do, because he was really enthused about talking football. He's excited about being with KC, thinks they'll be really good.

 
That's a great point. You have to really have confidence in yourself when you make a move like this.In a PPR league, RB is a position I don't value at all. I mean, I know it's important...but I know that finding a solid RB is very easy. Finding a stud WR is not. In this particular league, I actually then traded back up into round 2, and grabbed Wayne. Then I used Wayne and traded down and picked up Maclin. My next pick was Ocho Cinco. Since I had nabbed Dez Bryant in the rookie draft, that gave me 5 stud WR's. Now I'm REALLY behind in RB, but no one can even come close at WR. And I was able to get Big Ben and Favre later in the draft, assuring me a top ten QB for the season, assuming Favre comes back. One thing I learned from a league I joined last year with a number of guys in this thread...is that in many leagues, you can't "outdraft" the other owners straight up. You have to create your own advantages.
The nice thing about those particular moves is that you don't really have to worry about who your RB1 is. With that team, it's probably Mark Ingram.I wouldn't have drafted Favre, though. I would have committed more fully to the "Year N+1" strategy and used the roster spot on a flier with upside. I doubt you're winning anything this year without any RBs, so all Favre is doing is making your rookie pick next year worse (and lessening your chances of getting Ingram).
Unless of course he uses Favre as trade bait to get a decent pick back from a contender, and then he still has his own pick.
 
Unless of course he uses Favre as trade bait to get a decent pick back from a contender, and then he still has his own pick.
By that point, the damage will have already been done. Favre will have already gotten you a couple of wins (taking you further from the #1 overall rookie pick), Roethlisberger will be back, and you will have missed the chance to roster a Matt Moore type with the pick you used on Favre in the first place.
 
Just to put a little bit more life into the Jamaal Charles Bandwagon for this year...

I was playin basketball tonight at the local gym when this huge guy walks in with 4 kids about 15/16 years old. They play us the next game (we win) and then we're all sittin on the bench afterwards, and somebody asks him how big he is. He replies "325" and the guy is amazed, because he was movin up and down the court as fast as the rest of us, and he had amazing footwork. The next logical question is, "Do you play football?"

He says, "Yeah, I've played for a long time, this'll be my 7th year I think...I was with Cincy for a while, but now I'm with Kansas City. I got hurt last year, which [sucked]." So we keep talking, and get into a chat about football. He starts talking about RBs. He says the following:

1. He gets to play against all the RBs, and he said he was amazed how bad Cedric Benson was in Chicago and how hated he was, because he was great when they wer eon Cincy together. He says that Benson is Rudi Johnson with more power. And then he made a joke: "I'm the big tackle, Rudi never got through me in practice. Ced did more than once."

2. He didn't understand why Jerome Harrison didn't get more carries either. He said the guy is BUILT and always did extremely well in practice. Then he made another joke: "Of course, our defense there wasn't too great against other teams, so maybe that was it."

3. "Jamaal Charles is easily the best runner I've ever gotten to play with. And I spent a lot of time against Jamal Lewis, Rudi, Ced, Willie Parker, and McGahee over in Baltimore for a few years. None of them come close to this guy."

4. He said that Jamaal looks great, when I asked about the shoulder thing. He said that he (Charles) is intense, but he's funny in the lockerroom and said he'll be there for training camp. Apparently he's a great guy.

Overall, I was surprised at hwo well he handled all the stuff I asked. We talked for a long time between games, and he did not get tired. I was amazed, he wasn't even breathing any harder than me after a few games, and I'm pretty damn fit. I guess a lot of people don't ask as many questions as I do, because he was really enthused about talking football. He's excited about being with KC, thinks they'll be really good.
:goodposting: Sounds like Shaun Smith. Thanks for posting, Instinctive.

Re: the Jamaal Charles bandwagon. I'm not sure there is one. We at Rotoworld are probably higher on him than any other sites are (Gregg Rosenthal surprisingly has him rated even higher than I do in redraft), but he's not going very high any of the "expert" mocks I've done. Even with the uncertainty beyond RB7 or 8 this year, Charles is being ranked in the mid-teens by the "experts."

According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, he's not going until early 3rd this year.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top