SSOG
Moderator
Are you kidding? Before 6 months ago, I'd never even heard of him.Apparently you never watched him play in college.
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Dynasty Rankings (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
It could be, it works best when you draft a RB instead of a WR you like because RB's value tends to skyrocket during their rookie year, while WR's usually take a couple years to establish their peak value. After their rookie season, Lynch was going in the top 5-8 picks overall, and Calvin Johnson was going in the 3rd/4th rounds(dynasty start-ups). Even if you prefered CJ with the 1.2 rookie pick, Lynch would have been a better pick because his perceived value was so much higher during their rookie seasons. I rarely will take a WR with a top 5 pick, even if i prefer that WR to a RB i will pick ahead of him. It happens almost every year, moderately talented RB's that get drafted in the first round of rookie drafts end up as top 10-15 dynasty RB's after their rookie years. They become the most sought after dynasty players in the league, and you can pretty much name your price for guys like Matt Forte and Steve Slaton. How long does it take rookie WR's to even reach top 30 status in dynasty leagues?
Even guys like Lesean Mccoy and Shonn Greene who have proven very little can be traded for almost any WR in the entire league, not just the WR's drafted in last years class.
Like i said, it is risky, but you dont always have to be right for it to work out, you just have to be right more than 50% of the time. Especially since when you do hit one, it can pay out big.
ETA, I really have to start proof reading before i hit the submit button.
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Thanks EBF, I figured that would be the basic thrust of your argument.It will be interesting to see how long it takes before people have enough evidence to say that Williams is definitively better than Thomas. My hunch is that it won't take long. I'm not impressed with Thomas in the least.That said, again, appreciate your thoughtful response and agree with much of it. I do still think you're a tad too dismissive of likely acquisition value and wish you gave it a bit more consideration.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Avery - you are correct, the non-EBF model requires you to make more decisions correctly. But the EBF model, in contrast, consolidates ALL of your risk in the initial player evaluation. So in some respects, you could say that is more risky. I'm not sure it is as simple as saying that one is good and one is bad.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Actually I am a wait-and-see on Whitehurst too. I watched both his preseason games. He can move the team pretty well and has a nice arm. But he makes a lot of mistakes. Also there was a noticeable difference between playing with good receivers and bad receivers. He's closer to AJ Feeley (when Miami paid a 2nd rounder for him) than Schaub.
Avery
Footballguy
I don't want to oversimplify it but it seems some want to overcomplicate it.It doesn't mitigate risk to attempt not only to try to guess the career success of two given players, but to try to guess which curve will be steeper earlier in their career and whose curve will end higher. What does mitigate risk is having a roster with multiple players you think have talent. One of the sharp minds in this thread, don't remember who, equated rookie draft picks with lottery tickets. I like that analogy. Take enough shots, mix in some knowledge, and you'll hit a number of them.
Draft who you think is the best player. (Using a bit of ADP and league knowledge to know when to try to trade up or down to maximize value or grab a player you really believe in)
Trade when you think you can upgrade a player.
That's the easy part.
Player evaluation? That's where things get difficult.
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It seemed to me Miami was going to spend a 2nd round pick on the best QB they could get no matter who it was. I think Seattle(and Arizona) wanted Whitehurst in particular, not just to fill a huge void. I liked Whitehurst after the trade, but started to have 2nd thoughts through training camp. After watching his first two preseason games, im am higher on him than i ever was. Other than the one Int. he threw, i thought he looked terrific. The one thing that really impressed me was his ability to look off his intended receivers. That, and his ability to go through his reads. I know it was against 2nd/3rd stringers, but he was also playing with 2nd/3rd stringers. Anyway, put me back on the Whitehurst bandwagon....for now.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
They definitely were interested in whoever Philly was discarding. They wanted Whitehurst but he wasn't their first option.
The drive that ended in the Obomanu TD was good. No great plays, but efficient. The whole rest of the GB game was dreadful, at least from my chair.
Except the whole two minute drill was "Is Tate open? No. Throw it to Tate anyway."
It is certainly more difficult, i wont argue that. But like I said, if you get it right more than half of the time, your team will benefit.Treating players like stocks can be beneficial in more ways than one. If you can benefit your team by even a very small margin in a trade, making alot of them will add up and give you a much better team. You are also less likely to be holding onto players when their value falls of the cliff(you are much better trading a guy away a year or two too early then getting stuck with him when his value bottoms out.)
The 2nd reason is bias. A big problem even the biggest sharks have is falling in love with players. I dont care how good he is, or how much you like him, if the guy will net you more in a trade than he is worth, you should trade him. Alot of people will tell you to never trade studs like Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson, but what harm does it do to at least try? If someone is willing to give you a couple of studs and rookie picks in return, why not?
OnThInIcE911
Footballguy
Good read and made me feel much better about the trade TY. Makes a lot of sense.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Do you really think Chad has a 167% higher chance of a top 20 finish this year than Nicks? I would put it at maybe 5 or 10%.
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Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Personally, I just have a hard time giving up a player like Nicks for Ochocinco. I do agree that Ochocinco is likely to outproduce Nicks over the next two seasons, and don't dismiss your theory because of it. There's just too many examples of players hitting the wall right about the age of Ochocinco though. Torry Holt, Micheal Irvin, Andre Reed and James Lofton all hit the wall right about that age. Lofton is the only one with a startable fantasy season after 32 of all of them, and he had several poor ones around one decent one. Those four players have 27 combined probowls and two are already HOFers, with Holt a likely addition too. If that happens you've just traded a potential bright future for nothing.
Even if Ochocinco puts in two more quality seasons, lets say 1200/7 (four staffers are projecting an average of 990/7 btw), how much would you really be losing if Nicks just continues to make gradual improvements? He put up 790/6 a year ago while starting 6 games. 1020/7.5 is the average of what four staffers are projecting for him this season. Thats a lot of potential seasons of production that you are giving up for not much difference in production between the two, even at 1200/7 vs 1020/7.5.
Its one thing to do it for a generational talent like Randy Moss. To me its another to do it for a player of Ochocinco's caliber.
Even if Ochocinco puts in two more quality seasons, lets say 1200/7 (four staffers are projecting an average of 990/7 btw), how much would you really be losing if Nicks just continues to make gradual improvements? He put up 790/6 a year ago while starting 6 games. 1020/7.5 is the average of what four staffers are projecting for him this season. Thats a lot of potential seasons of production that you are giving up for not much difference in production between the two, even at 1200/7 vs 1020/7.5.
Its one thing to do it for a generational talent like Randy Moss. To me its another to do it for a player of Ochocinco's caliber.
I have wondered for quite awhile about the man-crush many seem to have in regards to Vincent Jackson around here and would like to bring it up for discussion, as I'm trying to determine whether he truly is a worthwile target for me in several leagues.
From what I see, he is a talented player who in 5 NFL season has yet to produce elite production. This isn't the case of someone struggling through their rookie campgain, 2nd year, or even 3rd year- this is a player who is now 5 years in and still has not reached the elite production that his ranking around here seems to suggest he should be producing.
I also see a player who has had the luxery of playing with one of the best young QB's in the NFL, meaning we can't use the offense as a reason for his muted production and has had weapons around him to prevent constand double/triple teams (Gates, LT...before he lost it). It's not as if he has struggled (1167/9 and 1098/7 in his last 2 seasons), but its a far cry from Fitz/AJ production. Nobody has outright compared him to those guys or put him on their level, but it seems he is more often lumped in with that upper, truly elite group than the tier below (White, Marshall, Wayne, etc...).
Additionally, I see a player who, in 5 seasons, has not managed to become the prime passing target on his own team yet! I don't think this gets enough attention, as it is entirely damning, so let me repeat- Vincent Jackson is not even the preferred passing option on his own team! The only elite player I can even recall with this sort of distinction is Reggie Wayne, and even he didn't seem to be nearly as touted as Jackson is around here. One of the things routinely trumpeted about Jackson is that if his targets increased, his stats would jump through the roof. However, isn't it possible that his target numbers are low for a reason? Wouldn't it stand to reason that a QB as talented as Rivers would get the ball to Jackson a higher percentage of the time if it were as beneficial as many around here suggest? I can't think of a single elite receiver with target numbers as low as Jackson's, which is another pretty damning piece of evidence. That being said, I am not nearly the stat maven SSOG is, so I acknowledge the possibility he will come and blow this particular part of the argument out of the water with some in-depth statistical analysis (I'm actually semi-hoping he does to provide some statistical backing for or against this point, as I would like to see it either way). I guess I'm just basing this statement off what I see when I watch games.
I also see a player who his own team refuses to pay elite compensation to. On top of that, any team to this point that has inquired about a trade has run away laughing at his contract demands (which equate to being paid as one of the top 3 WR's in the game). Doesn't it say something when, as of now, no team is willing to pay him as an elite receiver?
Lastly, he seems to have a rather high knucklehead factor. He is already going to be serving a 3 game suspension to begin this season, meaning he is a risk in future seasons. On top of that, this is a player WHO SEEMS WILLING TO SIT OUT AN ENTIRE NFL SEASON! Not even Brandon Marshall can be accused of doing that and his knucklehead factor is one thing that seems to shoot him down in the rankings.
I guess what I'm trying to figure out is this: If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck, and acts like a duck...it's a duck, isn't it?! In Vincent Jackson, I see a player who is talented, but has not produced as an elite player through 5 seasons despite playing with an elite level QB, has not managed to pass Antonio Gates to become the prime target on his own team, has abnormaly low target numbers for a player of his caliber, can not get teams to pay him an elite level salary, and seems to have an above average knucklehead factor. Doesn't all of this add up to a player who is above average, but not great/elite? Is this a case of F&L and SSOG falling in love with him and everyone else on the boards falling in line and doing the same?
I'm not exactly saying I don't think he is without talent and recognize he has the tools to produce at a high level, but I guess I struggle when I see him routinely placed among the top 5-7 WR's when that talent has generally gone unfufilled to this point. Do people simply feel he is that much more talented than the 2nd tier of receivers that it simply has to click at some point, regardless of all the signs to the contrary so far? I am even more perplexed because I generally value F&L's talent evaluations very highly, but I am confused entirely about the love for Jackson at this point in time.
From what I see, he is a talented player who in 5 NFL season has yet to produce elite production. This isn't the case of someone struggling through their rookie campgain, 2nd year, or even 3rd year- this is a player who is now 5 years in and still has not reached the elite production that his ranking around here seems to suggest he should be producing.
I also see a player who has had the luxery of playing with one of the best young QB's in the NFL, meaning we can't use the offense as a reason for his muted production and has had weapons around him to prevent constand double/triple teams (Gates, LT...before he lost it). It's not as if he has struggled (1167/9 and 1098/7 in his last 2 seasons), but its a far cry from Fitz/AJ production. Nobody has outright compared him to those guys or put him on their level, but it seems he is more often lumped in with that upper, truly elite group than the tier below (White, Marshall, Wayne, etc...).
Additionally, I see a player who, in 5 seasons, has not managed to become the prime passing target on his own team yet! I don't think this gets enough attention, as it is entirely damning, so let me repeat- Vincent Jackson is not even the preferred passing option on his own team! The only elite player I can even recall with this sort of distinction is Reggie Wayne, and even he didn't seem to be nearly as touted as Jackson is around here. One of the things routinely trumpeted about Jackson is that if his targets increased, his stats would jump through the roof. However, isn't it possible that his target numbers are low for a reason? Wouldn't it stand to reason that a QB as talented as Rivers would get the ball to Jackson a higher percentage of the time if it were as beneficial as many around here suggest? I can't think of a single elite receiver with target numbers as low as Jackson's, which is another pretty damning piece of evidence. That being said, I am not nearly the stat maven SSOG is, so I acknowledge the possibility he will come and blow this particular part of the argument out of the water with some in-depth statistical analysis (I'm actually semi-hoping he does to provide some statistical backing for or against this point, as I would like to see it either way). I guess I'm just basing this statement off what I see when I watch games.
I also see a player who his own team refuses to pay elite compensation to. On top of that, any team to this point that has inquired about a trade has run away laughing at his contract demands (which equate to being paid as one of the top 3 WR's in the game). Doesn't it say something when, as of now, no team is willing to pay him as an elite receiver?
Lastly, he seems to have a rather high knucklehead factor. He is already going to be serving a 3 game suspension to begin this season, meaning he is a risk in future seasons. On top of that, this is a player WHO SEEMS WILLING TO SIT OUT AN ENTIRE NFL SEASON! Not even Brandon Marshall can be accused of doing that and his knucklehead factor is one thing that seems to shoot him down in the rankings.
I guess what I'm trying to figure out is this: If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck, and acts like a duck...it's a duck, isn't it?! In Vincent Jackson, I see a player who is talented, but has not produced as an elite player through 5 seasons despite playing with an elite level QB, has not managed to pass Antonio Gates to become the prime target on his own team, has abnormaly low target numbers for a player of his caliber, can not get teams to pay him an elite level salary, and seems to have an above average knucklehead factor. Doesn't all of this add up to a player who is above average, but not great/elite? Is this a case of F&L and SSOG falling in love with him and everyone else on the boards falling in line and doing the same?
I'm not exactly saying I don't think he is without talent and recognize he has the tools to produce at a high level, but I guess I struggle when I see him routinely placed among the top 5-7 WR's when that talent has generally gone unfufilled to this point. Do people simply feel he is that much more talented than the 2nd tier of receivers that it simply has to click at some point, regardless of all the signs to the contrary so far? I am even more perplexed because I generally value F&L's talent evaluations very highly, but I am confused entirely about the love for Jackson at this point in time.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
You've got a high threshold for "fulfilling talent".What WRs would you place in front of him? The big 3 and Roddy White seem to be givens.Miles Austin - 3/4 of a season of dominant performances, probably aheadDez Bryant - hasn't seen the field yetDeSean Jackson - 1 dominant season on similarly low # of targets with obscene # of long TDsGreg Jennings - followed top 5 year with a year barely in the top 20, roughly equivalent to VJax in performance and production seems more directly related to situationMoss and Wayne - will outperform in the short term but older so devaluedMarshall - don't ask why he has been devaluedCrabtree - unproven with questionable situationColston - good production, great situation but would the offense miss a beat if he was out, similarly low target #sFor your argument to be cogent, you have to say where you would rank him and who is better.
shader
Footballguy
VJ is big, tall and fast. Rivers spreads the ball around and isn't the type to focus on one receiver. Jackson's production out of those targets is obscene.
I think a big reason he is rated where he is, has to do with the state of WR's in the game today. Moss, Wayne, Ocho Cinco, TO...all these guys were the big guns in the past, and now are getting older.
The young guys on the list are all facing questions of their own.
Who would you put ahead of him? I certainly would put Andre, Fitz and Calvin.. I also would put Roddy ahead of him.
But who else?
We're kind of at a point with dynasty WR's where a new generation of players is emerging, and at this point, many of us feel that VJ is one of the most talented of that generation, but none of the players really have the "stats" to prove it.
Which is why guys like Dez Bryant are so high on people's lists when they haven't caught a single NFL pass yet.
I think a big reason he is rated where he is, has to do with the state of WR's in the game today. Moss, Wayne, Ocho Cinco, TO...all these guys were the big guns in the past, and now are getting older.
The young guys on the list are all facing questions of their own.
Who would you put ahead of him? I certainly would put Andre, Fitz and Calvin.. I also would put Roddy ahead of him.
But who else?
We're kind of at a point with dynasty WR's where a new generation of players is emerging, and at this point, many of us feel that VJ is one of the most talented of that generation, but none of the players really have the "stats" to prove it.
Which is why guys like Dez Bryant are so high on people's lists when they haven't caught a single NFL pass yet.
This is a very fair point. I think the bulk of my struggle comes more from the fact that he is more closely coupled with the AJ/Fitz tier than the next tier of players (basically everyone you just mentioned). I probably was off base in wondering why he was ranked where he was, and am more accuretly wondering why he seems to be more closely valued as a Fitz/AJ type guy than the rest.
I agree, the problem I see with these people who live 3-5 years in the future is that once the future arrives, things usually haven't played out as they anticipated. It may be a Dynasty league, but the old ciiche has a lot of truth to it - the only year you can win is the one you are currently competing in. I take a shorter term look of 1-3 years, play in multiple leagues and have turned a modest profit every year since 2005 - I haven't seen any of these "experts" on predicting the future do any better.[rant]I think people take this dynasty thing a bit too far sometimes. I mean seriously do you try to project out a player's whole career based on college games? That just sounds crazy to me. I don't look at dynasty as a marathon. Dynasty leagues to me are more like 400m runs instead of 100m sprints. I don't try to build my team with my eye toward 2012 or 2013, that's craziness. I'm always building toward this year or next year, but never looking ahead more than one year. I liked Colin Dowlings Year 2 strategy and employed it last season. Now is the year I sell out for the ring. I really don't care a lot about 2011. If I can't win in x or x+1 year, why am I even playing?
What's even more crazy is people that have themselves convinced that they can see that far into the future. The professionals can't even project players with a high degree of accuracy and these guys are the best of the best. Paid hundreds of thousands and sometimes millions of dollars to study these athletes, and they don't even have a good handle on it.
I play dynasty more like day trading I guess. What good is building for the future if you aren't ever getting there. Sidney Rice is not a top 15 dynasty wideout. He's not going to help you this season much. His value has already peaked. He may or may not ever get a good QB after his abbreviated 2010 season. You say you like his talent but that talent goes unharvested if Tarvaris Jackson is his QB for the next 3 years. I don't have him any higher than guys like Maclin.
Maybe I'm too new to the dynasty game. I'm only in my third year.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I think it's interesting to compare his situation to Larry Fitzgerald's this year and Calvin's last year. No one is devaluing Fitzgerald in dynasty despite the big question marks around his situation. Everyone thinks Leinart is garbage, and Derek Anderson isn't any better. There's threads on the Pool saying Fitzgerald isn't even a 4th round pick in redraft. Yet, he's #1 or #2 in every dynasty ranking you can find. Calvin also never dropped below top 3. He might have gone from unobtainable to obtainable (and that window's closing fast), but you were still looking at young #1 RB ++ in order to get him. And his ranking was stable.Vincent Jackson is dropping. Granted there's a big difference between playing and not playing. But he's a gust from a butterfly wing from dropping out of the top 10 in F&L's rankings. And even SSOG who is leader of the bandwagon has him squarely below Austin and White in a lower tier at #6.I think it's pretty clear he's not in the highest tier. And the 2nd tier is wide. If you compare him to other guys in the 2nd tier, it's easy to make a case for him.
SSOG
Moderator
F&L has him ranked 9th. I've got him at 6th, and when I update this afternoon, he'll probably fall to 7th or 8th. In Jackson's 4th year he was WR12, and in his 5th year he was WR10 despite missing a game (his 16-game total would have made him WR7). How has his recent production not supported that ranking, again? I've got Roddy White at my #5 spot despite the fact that he's "only" been WR6 and WR7 the last two years- has his production not supported that ranking, too?Over the last two seasons, VJax has 2265/16 receiving. Brandon Marshall has 2385/16. Nobody seems to question Marshall's production, so I can't understand why they all question Jackson's.
I have never seen anyone put Jackson in the Fitz/Johnson tier. Not even once, let alone more often than not.
Antonio Gates had 114 targets in 16 games last year. VJax had 109 in 15 games (pro-rates to 116). VJax and Gates are 1A and 1B. Is that a strike against VJax? Some people think so, but I think there's no shame in splitting targets with a future first-ballot HoFer. Like you said, Wayne split targets with Harrison, and that worked out just fine in the end. The big reason for VJax's low target numbers isn't that he was a 2nd or 3rd option, it's because SD as a team ranked 23rd in the NFL in passing attempts.
How do you know no team is willing to pay him? The only team that has been granted permission to negotiate was Seattle. They're apart, but that doesn't mean talks are dead. Washington is still showing an interest. The saga has not yet played out. Also, Seattle never balked at paying VJax as an elite receiver, they balked at making him the highest-paid receiver. I suspect if he was simply asking for top-3 money, they'd sign, but they don't want to give him #1 money.
I've discussed before why I don't consider VJax a knucklehead for his DUIs. Also, sitting out an entire season is not the slightest bit knuckleheaded, it's a business decision. This is his work, this is his 9-to-5. Imagine that you were an intern who signed with a company fresh out of college. Your pay was very generous for an intern, but you had to sign a 5-year contract with a no compete clause. You signed the contract because you were promised that at the end of 5 years your company would either give you a big raise or leave you free to sign with a competitor... but then 5 years came and went, you were radically outperforming your contract, and your boss refused to give you the raise or the release that he had promised. Vincent Jackson signed a 5 year contract, and he's now played all 5 years of it. HE PLAYED OUT HIS CONTRACT, but due to a loophole in the CBA, he's not a free agent. Vincent Jackson just got royally freaking screwed by the system, and his only course of action about the unfairness of it is sitting out. Hall of Famer John Hannah once held out because he was getting screwed by an unfair system. Emmitt Smith held out because he was getting screwed. John Elway threatened to play for the Yankees if the Colts didn't trade him. Eli Manning threatened to sit out a season and re-enter the draft. Bo Jackson *DID* sit out a season and re-enter the draft. Are all of these guys knuckleheads, too? Should we question their dedication to football, too?
SSOG
Moderator
I made up the percentages off the top of my head to demonstrate the concept, but yes, I do believe that Ocho is at least twice as likely to finish this season in the top 20 than Nicks is. Other than the lost season of 2008, Ochocinco is working on a streak of 6 straight pro bowl appearances and 6 straight top-20 finishes (5 of them top-10). Owens is in town, but when Housh was in town he was routinely getting 150+ targets and Ocho still got his. I think Ocho's one of the safest short-term bets you can possibly make.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I don't understand how people can say Palmer is done out of one end of their mouth and that both TO and Ocho will have top 20 years out of the other end. You can't have it both ways. It's not 2006/2007. Chad had about 70/1050/9 last year as the only real receiving option on the team. Unless Palmer's arm is significantly better, the receptions and yards will go down. And TO's presence has a big impact on his TD potential. I am not at all worried about Chad's talent level past age 30, but I am worried about his production this year even as a WR2 given the situation.Gresham and Shipley don't help either because they will get 80 to 100 receptions between then (total) and give Palmer semi-dependable underneath options in addition to TO which will further play to his current abilities.SSOG said:
Palmer did make some nice long throws in preseason game 2. Maybe he is better/healthier than some (F&L included) are giving him credit for. But the big thing last year was as time went on his arm got noodlier. There's pretty much no reason for confidence in Nov/Dec even if he's hitting 40 yard fly's in August.
SSOG
Moderator
For what it's worth, I'm not buying the Owens hype at all. Owens isn't Batman. Owens isn't even Robin. After how he looked in Buffalo last year, I'd say Owens is Alfred. I also don't buy that the Bengals are going to be as run-heavy as they were last year when they were one of just four teams with more runs than passes (and they finished 27th in the league in passing attempts).
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
I don't see that happening
Man of Constant Sorrow
Footballguy
Eastwood
Footballguy
Valid points about needing to consider the state of my roster. I've now made 2 trades for Sidney Rice in 2 different 12 team dynasty leagues. The first league I moved Randy for Rice straight up in a league where I have Calvin, Marshall, White, Smitty South, and now Sidney Rice (plus bench players like Santana Moss, McCluster, Doucet, Devin Thomas) So I'm win now, but figured I could win without Moss, and get younger. 2nd league I moved Boldin and a 3rd next year for Sidney and a 2nd next year. This league I have Calvin, Smitty South, Bowe, and guys like Santana, Evans, Breaston. So again, when considering my roster, I think it was a good time to move Randy for a talent like Sidney. And I'm EXPECTING him to miss the entire year, but hope I'm pleasantly surprised mid season.If he's rebuilding, then S Rice is not a bad return for Moss IMO. Moss would be at least 34 before his team is back on track, and fantasy owners simply don't give up anything of value for guys that old.. even guys named Randy Moss.Make it three years for Moss, and I would too.
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Nice article, SSOG: http://www.dynastyrankings.net/articles/fa...s-hakeem-nicks/
I've overstated my opinion about 85's value in the past, and don't really want to rehash it all, but I WOULD AGAIN like to say that I just don't get how valuable a "top 20" WR is as opposed to someone who may be "top 35" but has better matchups on a weekly basis, or trying to play the hot hand off the waiver wire (replacement level?).
You made a good point that people are essentially throwing darts trying to project which young receivers are going develop into the NEXT Chad Johnson, but I really don't see how much improvement Nicks would need to match 85's production from last year on a weekly basis. And certainly, Nicks has far, far >>> upside.
I am certainly much more willing to bet on a dynasty grand slam from my starting WR2 with a guy that has the pedigree (and limited track record) and situation that Nicks has over a good bet for a guy that will consistently give me solid, but not spectacular #'s at a position where that production is not all THAT MUCH > than the average on a weekly basis over other starting WR 2's.
I'll go back to my example from last year... How much marginal value does 85 offer over Derrick Mason, a total dynasty afterthought? How much marginal value does 85 offer over a waiver wire flyer like Austin Collie was last year?
It's not that hard to acquire a decent WR2 to start on a weekly basis that will give me 80%+ of what 85 does in an average week?
Also, SSOG, you didn't mention anything at all about T.O. possibly cutting into 85's role/targets in a run heavy offense that was pretty anemic in the passing game?
I've overstated my opinion about 85's value in the past, and don't really want to rehash it all, but I WOULD AGAIN like to say that I just don't get how valuable a "top 20" WR is as opposed to someone who may be "top 35" but has better matchups on a weekly basis, or trying to play the hot hand off the waiver wire (replacement level?).
You made a good point that people are essentially throwing darts trying to project which young receivers are going develop into the NEXT Chad Johnson, but I really don't see how much improvement Nicks would need to match 85's production from last year on a weekly basis. And certainly, Nicks has far, far >>> upside.
I am certainly much more willing to bet on a dynasty grand slam from my starting WR2 with a guy that has the pedigree (and limited track record) and situation that Nicks has over a good bet for a guy that will consistently give me solid, but not spectacular #'s at a position where that production is not all THAT MUCH > than the average on a weekly basis over other starting WR 2's.
I'll go back to my example from last year... How much marginal value does 85 offer over Derrick Mason, a total dynasty afterthought? How much marginal value does 85 offer over a waiver wire flyer like Austin Collie was last year?
It's not that hard to acquire a decent WR2 to start on a weekly basis that will give me 80%+ of what 85 does in an average week?
Also, SSOG, you didn't mention anything at all about T.O. possibly cutting into 85's role/targets in a run heavy offense that was pretty anemic in the passing game?
I have a question about Dez Bryant's dynasty value in relation to Miles Austin. In WR dynasty rankings, shouldn't one REALLY be betting on one or the other as THE option going forward? I really find it hard to believe that 27 months from now that BOTH will be top 10 fantasy WR's. Something like that occurring seems extremely historically rare, off the top of my head. Maybe a handful of seasons in the last 15 years where it has ever happened that two WR's from the same team were top 10?
I understand the scouting reports about Bryant are glowing and he's been described consistently as an elite talent, but how, realistically is he going to develop with Austin clearly the top dog in an offense that has never shown success in spreading the ball around?
I understand the scouting reports about Bryant are glowing and he's been described consistently as an elite talent, but how, realistically is he going to develop with Austin clearly the top dog in an offense that has never shown success in spreading the ball around?
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
There are some of us that believe that Austin won't be the top dog for long. I think Austin will be the second fiddle to Dez.
Yes, then you're betting on Bryant. I don't know if F&L has updated his rankings in awhile, but what I see on his website from back in June he had Bryant at #9 a few spots lower than Austin.
EBF
Footballguy
Elite receivers are rare. At any given time there might be 5-10 in the entire NFL. There are 32 teams in the league. What are the odds that any two of those 5-10 elite receivers will happen to be on the same team?Pretty low, particularly when you consider that a team with an established elite WR1 is probably less likely to pursue a second elite player at that position in the draft/free agency. If you already have a great #1 WR, you're more likely to spend your draft picks/money elsewhere. I can't think of a case where a great receiver had disappointing production because he happened to play with another great WR. By and large, great players eventually yield great production. Causes for optimism:Wayne/HarrisonWelker/MossBoldin/FitzgeraldBurress/WardIf you think Dez Bryant is a future star, you shouldn't let the presence of Miles Austin deter you from drafting him.
SSOG
Moderator
I appreciate the feedback, Homer, and I mostly wanted to address these two points. The difference between Chad Ochocinco and Austin Collie last year was 51 fantasy points, or roughly equivalent to the difference between Chad Ochocinco and Andre Johnson. The difference between Ochocinco (who essentially finished in a 3-way tie for 12th) and Derrick Mason (who finished 18th) was the difference between Ocho and Sidney Rice. The difference between Ocho and Sims-Walker (WR25) was the difference between Ocho and Miles Austin. Chad Ochocinco wasn't a low-end WR2, here- he was a fantasy difference maker, and a guy with an almost unparalleled track record as a fantasy difference maker, to boot. The difference between him and a waiver wire flier is huge.I didn't mention much about TO or Benson because I'm not a believer in either TO or Benson. I think TO is all smoke and mirrors at this point, and I think Benson was playing above his head. I expect Cincinnati to pass enough more this season to absorb the addition of Owens without cutting into the production of Ocho.
On the contrary, I can't think of any situation where a team had two elite talents at WR and both of those talents didn't produce massive fantasy numbers. EBF already mentioned Harrison/Wayne, Moss/Welker, Fitzgerald/Boldin, and Ward/Buress. He didn't even bring up Ocho/Housh or Holt/Bruce. And let's not forget about Smith/McCaffrey in Denver and Moore/Perriman in Detroit... I mean, it's actually been sickeningly common to have two teammates both producing elite top-10 caliber production. In most cases, it's fueled by a great QB putting up sick numbers... but Romo is exactly the kind of QB that can put up numbers like that (the dude is 4th in NFL history in yards per attempt).Moss and Welker were 2nd and 7th last year in PPG. Boldin and Fitzgerald were 1st and 2nd in PPG in 2008 (!!!). 2007 was the year of the WR duo- Moss and Welker ranked 1st and 11th, Ocho and Housh ranked 6th and 7th, Larry Fitzgerald ranked 5th, and Boldin was 10th in PPG but he missed some time. In 2006, Harrison and Wayne were 1st and 3rd while Ocho and Housh were 4th and 11th. 2005 saw Fitz finish 2nd and Boldin finish 8th. 2004 saw Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, AND BRANDON STOKLEY all finish 11th or better, while Javon Walker and Donald Driver finished 2nd and 10th and Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce finished 4th and 12th- SEVEN OF THE TOP 12 RECEIVERS that season played with another top-12 receiver. I could keep going back but we're already up to 10 top-12 duos and a top-12 trio. That's 23 players in the last 6 years, or almost 4 a year, and I haven't even looked at WR/TE combinations like Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow in 2007 or Wayne/Clark and VJax/Gates last year. It's not the teensiest, tiniest bit uncommon for two teammates to both produce at high-end stud levels. At any given moment, fully a third of the guys in the top 12 are playing across the field from another guy in the top 12.
SSOG
Moderator
Just got finished updating my rankings. A change log is available for your viewing pleasure right here.
I still dont like you, but thats good work right here.
Babu Bhatt2
Footballguy
I'm curious SSOG, why are you so down on Owens given the recent history of two top fantasy WRs in Cincinatti?
SSOG
Moderator
Because he's old, because he looked slow in Buffalo, because that history of two top fantasy WRs in Cincy dates back to before Carson's arm got blown to smithereens, and because Cedric Benson isn't going to completely fall off a cliff.
Babu Bhatt2
Footballguy
Rudi was a good fantasy back when they had Housh and Ocho a couple years back. I guess the big question is Palmer's arm, but then it doesn't make sense to be high on Ocho and down on Owens.I don't buy that Owens is out of gas because no receiver from Buffalo has performed fantasy-wise since Jim Kelly played.
DoubleG
Footballguy
FYI - you've got Spiller ranked 18th...and 19th.
SSOG
Moderator
Thanks for the heads up. Donald Brown is supposed to be 19th. Everything's correct in the database, so I have no idea why the display page is screwing it up. I'll send a note to the webmaster and hopefully get that cleared up soon.
OnThInIcE911
Footballguy
Anyone know where previous years ADP for rookie drafts are?
Trying to do a bit of research on the value of rookie draft picks.
Trying to do a bit of research on the value of rookie draft picks.
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Looking for some contract strategy advice since this is my first league with this format.
Is there any difference between how you would lock down each position?
Is this topic in a thread/article somewhere, because I can't find anything?
Dynasty/Auction league, with typical 9 player starting lineup.
Veteran contracts can be 1, 3 or 5 years and each year adds 10% to salary each year.
Rookie contracts can be 3, 5, or 7 years and 5 and 7 year adds 10% to salary each year.
(if you drop a player under $10 there is no penalty, and 10% penalty over $10)
I am at $326 of the league $330 cap.
Henne, Chad MIA QB - $8.00
Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB - $6.00
Rice, Ray BAL RB - $77.00
Mathews, Ryan SDC RB - $57.00
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB - $51.00
Tate, Ben HOU RB - $5.00
Huggins, Kareem TBB RB - $4.00
Karim, Deji JAC RB - $1.00
Starks, James GBP RB - $1.00
Bryant, Dez DAL WR - $41.00
Jackson, Vincent SDC WR - $20.00
Britt, Kenny TEN WR - $7.00
Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR - $5.00
Benn, Arrelious TBB WR - $5.00
Jones, James GBP WR - $3.00
Thomas, Mike JAC WR - $1.00
Price, Taylor NEP WR ® - $1.00
Tate, Brandon NEP WR - $1.00
Celek, Brent PHI TE - $15.00
Cook, Jared TEN TE - $1.00
Buehler, David DAL PK - $3.00
Bengals, Cincinnati CIN Def - $3.00
Cheers.
Is there any difference between how you would lock down each position?
Is this topic in a thread/article somewhere, because I can't find anything?
Dynasty/Auction league, with typical 9 player starting lineup.
Veteran contracts can be 1, 3 or 5 years and each year adds 10% to salary each year.
Rookie contracts can be 3, 5, or 7 years and 5 and 7 year adds 10% to salary each year.
(if you drop a player under $10 there is no penalty, and 10% penalty over $10)
I am at $326 of the league $330 cap.
Henne, Chad MIA QB - $8.00
Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB - $6.00
Rice, Ray BAL RB - $77.00
Mathews, Ryan SDC RB - $57.00
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB - $51.00
Tate, Ben HOU RB - $5.00
Huggins, Kareem TBB RB - $4.00
Karim, Deji JAC RB - $1.00
Starks, James GBP RB - $1.00
Bryant, Dez DAL WR - $41.00
Jackson, Vincent SDC WR - $20.00
Britt, Kenny TEN WR - $7.00
Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR - $5.00
Benn, Arrelious TBB WR - $5.00
Jones, James GBP WR - $3.00
Thomas, Mike JAC WR - $1.00
Price, Taylor NEP WR ® - $1.00
Tate, Brandon NEP WR - $1.00
Celek, Brent PHI TE - $15.00
Cook, Jared TEN TE - $1.00
Buehler, David DAL PK - $3.00
Bengals, Cincinnati CIN Def - $3.00
Cheers.
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Yes, but there is a difference between 2 WRs having top production in a season, and 2 WRs being ranked top 6 for dynasty, especially for any length of time. I'm pretty sure that both Austin and Dez won't be top 6 dynasty WRs, but it's hard to pick which one will be, so I can see ranking them both there (although I don't have them quite as high). Let's face it, even the best are wrong as often as they're right.
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kremenull
Footballguy
A couple of quick observations on your RB ranks. I don't know if these apply to PPR, doesn't seem like they do. But regardless of format, my belief is that this is Ryan Grant's last year as a feature RB......at least in Green Bay, which is where I think he has his best attainable value. Time runs out on non-elite talents like this and with his contract situation (and the CBA up in the air, in general), look for the Pack to cut bait on this guy and go in another direction, either with a marquee Free Agent (like DeAngelo), or a young rookie who would fit their style a lot better (Ryan Williams, maybe DeMarco Murray). I just think he's had his run and hasn't really been a difference-maker for that offense, simply riding the momentum created by the large number of 6 & 7 man fronts that the Packers' offense dictate to defenses. This guy has truly been fortunate. A stud RB would truly WOW and amaze in that offense (Imagine Spiller or Best on that team). More importantly, a studlier RB would win them more games, which is why they eventually look for the upgrade.SSOG said:
Which brings me to my point, based on the realization that Grant is approaching 28 yrs of age, whether you buy into my prediction of him or not, time is running out on this guy and I just don't see how Spiller can be lower than him in the dyno ranks, regardless of format. In PPR, Spiller should get a significant bump, I'd personally select him over Turner (which I did already in a startup), Shonn Greeene, Grant, Pierre, and others. I wouldn't draft Grant before the 8th Rd in a 2010 startup.
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Do you really think that the Pack would look to replace Grant in next year's draft? Reading quotes from McCarthy about Brandon Jackson, they might already have their future feature RB already on the roster. He definitely has flashed some impressive skills in a limited role and if they can get away with not having to spend a high pick on another RB I think they will. I agree that Grant isn't in the longterm plans for Green Bay and that a RB with a better all-around skillset would garner a lot more attention than Grant does.
SSOG
Moderator
Not necessarily. Fitz and Boldin were both top-10 WRs pretty much every year from 2005 to 2008- if you'd ranked them both in the top 10 prior to the 2005 season, you would have been right on the money. If Marvin Harrison were a bit younger, then anyone who had ranked both Wayne and Harrison in the top 10 prior to the 2004 season would have been a savant. Housh and Ocho had a 3-year span where they could have both justified top 10 redraft rankings (although ranking Housh as a top 10 dynasty receiver at any point would have been a mistake, because he was never as talented as his stats suggested). If not for age and major injury (two issues that don't affect Austin and Bryant), Moss/Welker easily could have justified top-10 dynasty rankings at some point.There haven't been many WR duos in the past who would have justified a pair of top-10 rankings... but there haven't been many WR duos in the past with Austin and Bryant's combination of age, talent, and favorable situation. Austin is 26. Bryant is 21. If you could have gotten Holt/Bruce or Harrison/Wayne or Moss/Welker in the top 10 at those ages, would you have thought it was worth it?humpback said:
I remember this debate first cropping up half a decade ago when Larry Fitzgerald started to break out and many people kept saying "how good can he get, Anquan Boldin's already in town, do you really think an NFL offense can spread the ball between two guys enough to make them both studs?". The answer now, as it was then, is "absolutely yes". It's rare, but then again, it's rare for two WRs who are so talented and so young to wind up on the same team.
The rankings are non-PPR. I wouldn't be surprised if this was Grant's last season in Green Bay, but I expect him to be top 12 this season, and even if he's out of Green Bay I expect him to have a job (and therefore some residual value) next season, too. He's definitely an expiring asset at this stage, but that doesn't mean that he's worthless. As for Spiller... I waffle on Spiller more than on most players. On the one hand, he was a top 10 draft pick. On the other, Buffalo was possibly the worst place he could have landed. At the end of the day, I'm just worried he's more Pierre Thomas/Felix Jones than Chris Johnson/Brian Westbrook.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Yes, the Pack will look to replace Grant next year. And no, Brandon Jackson is most certainly not the future RB on that team. Other than a couple good runs in the last preseason game, he has in fact consistently NOT flashed impressive skills. He has been consistently pedestrian on anything other than 3rd down situations.
SSOG - I think that Zach Miller is ranked too low on your site. I just think he has more to offer than Winslow and Daniels probably this year but also long term. You guys are not buying into him being a great player on a team that needs quality receivers? What do you see that you do not like? I mean he was almost rosterable with Jamarcus in there and that's amazing.
kremenull
Footballguy
Good point. And you essentially hit on mine as well. Regardless of where the future RB comes from (Free agency, draft, or from within), I believe his days are winding down and his dynasty value is diminishing rapidly. Already has in my eyes as I never look to acquire guys who I place in his category/situation, unless it is strictly for a very short term boost as I'll look to unload them even before the season is half-way done. The Kevin Smiths, Pierres, Fred Jacksons, Barbers, many of these guys were hot commodities heading into the 2009 season. My fellow leaguemates can have 'em all.....
SSOG
Moderator
Kellen Winslow is perhaps the most talented TE in the league today. His career has been cursed by terrible teammates and bizarre misfortune (the motorcycle accident that has left him at 80% ever since, the staph infection, etc), but the few times he's been in a decent situation, he's been beastly. To paraphrase your Jamarcus comment... Kellen Winslow was rosterable with Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, Josh Johnson, and Josh Freeman and that's amazing. In the 9 games Freeman started last year, Winslow averaged 5.1 catches for 65.4 yards, which would project to 82/1047 (12.8 yards per catch) over 16 games. Don't sleep on Sgt. Winslow. He's a soldja.As for Owen Daniels... he was the #1 fantasy TE before he went down to injury, and the #8 and #6 TE in the two seasons before. It was hard enough for me to put him as low as 7th as it was. The thought of moving him down even further at this point is unconscionable.Putting Miller below those guys isn't a criticism of Miller, it's a testament to the quality of the depth at the TE position right now. 3 years ago, the guys at the very top were insanely valuable and the guys after that were essentially garbage. Today, the guys at the top are weaker than they've been in years, but the guys below that are stronger than they've ever been in the entire history of the NFL. There's a lot of crazy quality in tier 3 (TEs 6-11). I get what you're saying about Zach Miller's opportunity this season, but at the end of the day, I just think that Winslow and Daniels are both better talents. Not that I'd cry if I had any of the three as my TE1. Or Carlson or Keller, for that matter.
