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1/4 of the season down, and Rivers is leading the league in fantasy points, averaging 27.7 ppg. Long way to go, but I'm feeling pretty good about this bet right now.:pickle:

In what league does Rivers have more points than Peyton Manning?

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1/4 of the season down, and Rivers is leading the league in fantasy points, averaging 27.7 ppg. Long way to go, but I'm feeling pretty good about this bet right now.:pickle:

In what league does Rivers have more points than Peyton Manning?
Good point. He is #2, and I misread the rankings and used Manning's point total. :)Rivers is averaging ~25 ppg, while Manning is averaging 27.7. I'm still feeling good about the bet.

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In the first league I wasn't actively shopping him, but I still wound up swapping him earlier this year when two owners both approached me with offers commensurate with my ranking of VJax. During the window when he looked likely to get traded this season, I had offers of VJax+2nd for Rivers+1st (likely late) and of VJax/2nd/Naanee for Brees. Both owners offered the trade because they were thrilled with their depth at the QB position. I wound up doing the VJax/2nd/Nanee for Brees trade.

Seriously? I guess it depends on league size and scoring dynamics, but I cannot imagine any scenario - even before the uncertainty with VJ - that VJax and a 2nd is worth Rivers and a first. The second trade is equally troubling - though I guess there's a case to be made, in a PPR with 4 pts per passing TD and a smaller QB starting pool.In any case, I would have done either deal in a heartbeat regardless of my QB situation.
So would anyone with an IQ over room temp?
Please be way cooler if you come back after your time off.J

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I'll tell you what - I own VJax in two leagues and can't get squat for him right now. I'm with you on the ranking SSOG, but if you're looking for this year, VJax is big time dead weight. It seems most have that feeling as well.

I'm surprised you can get top 15 WR value for him - I haven't seen it yet.

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Seriously? I guess it depends on league size and scoring dynamics, but I cannot imagine any scenario - even before the uncertainty with VJ - that VJax and a 2nd is worth Rivers and a first. The second trade is equally troubling - though I guess there's a case to be made, in a PPR with 4 pts per passing TD and a smaller QB starting pool.In any case, I would have done either deal in a heartbeat regardless of my QB situation.

10 team league. The Brees owner also owned Bradford and Orton. The Rivers owner also owned Donovan McNabb and had just traded for Aaron Rodgers. And remember, this happened back in the window when everyone thought that VJax was going to play this season.I imagine a lot of owners would have made that deal if it was Brandon Marshall instead of Vincent Jackson. I also know that I'm not the only guy on this planet that likes VJax more than Marshall.. I know that the Fitzgerald, Johnson, Johnson, White, and Austin owners wouldn't have traded them for a Rivers or a Brees (I know this because I own Fitz and Austin, and the Brees owner owns White, and the former Rodgers owner owns Andre, and the Calvin owner is insane). So what's so surprising about someone who feels the same way about VJax as I do making that deal for Jackson? I suppose they look like lopsided trades to anyone who's down on VJax, but if you've got him ranked among the top 10 dynasty WRs, that seems like pretty fair value. He was the only potential top-5 WR on the market. If I had Rivers and Rodgers at QB and I was already stacked at RB, I'd be shopping either QB for the best WR I could possibly acquire, and in my opinion, "the best WR I could acquire" was Vincent Jackson. Seems the Rivers owner and Brees owner both agreed.VJax reminds me a lot of Jonathan Stewart. If a Stewart Believer sells JStew, it'll probably for a package that makes every Unbeliever on the planet scratch their head and stare blankly while all the True Believers just nod understandingly. I'm a Stewart Believer in that dynasty league, too, and I've been approached by several Unbelievers who have been shocked by my asking price for him... but I think there are probably a lot of people in this thread who would be asking for the exact same thing if they were in my position.
I'm not sure how to value QBs in a 10-team league - all of my leagues are 16 team leagues, where QBs, especially top-end talents, are very valuable. Even ignoring the uncertainty around VJax going into the season, I guess I just don't see why him (or Marshall or anyone else you have as a top 5 WR) is worth a top 3 QB PLUS a higher pick in return. If you said VJax + 2nd for Brees, maybe.... but getting a 1st back as well? In a PPR, Marshall has MUCH more value (IMO) than in VJax and possibly jumps into the top 2-3... so MAYBE. But that's not VJax game and I know you don't play in PPR leagues.Perhaps the 10 team league changes the dynamics a little - particularly if you use 4 pts per pass TD - because everyone's starting roster is that much stronger, so a relative advantage at a position is greater. Still....

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For what it's worth - I just traded for Lynch (sort of accidentally): Lynch for a 2011 2nd, 2012 2nd, 2013 2nd and Malcom Floyd for Lynch. All of the 2nds are mine, and they should all be pretty late. (I have Rodgers/Ryan, CJ3/Wells/Hillis/Brown/Scott/Lynch, Driver/Finley/Keller/Holmes/Nanee/Maclin/Benn/Chambers/Rice/Cook and one of the top set of IDPs in the league).I kind of put it out there expecting him not to accept given our previous exchanges, and to be honest I didn't realized I offered 3x 2nd rounders :shrug: I have always loved Floyd, but it's a non-PPR and RB-premium league (even starting 2) - and I have plenty of other depth there.(Oh yeah, I also have Hernandez on my taxi squad).

Have you guys seen any other trades being done with Lynch? I'm trying to get a handle on whether I made a mistake and/or overpaid :) I guess a lot depends on the short and long term value o Floyd, but I just figured I have more depth there and with my later picks it'll be easier to add WRs than RBs.

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I'm not sure how to value QBs in a 10-team league - all of my leagues are 16 team leagues, where QBs, especially top-end talents, are very valuable. Even ignoring the uncertainty around VJax going into the season, I guess I just don't see why him (or Marshall or anyone else you have as a top 5 WR) is worth a top 3 QB PLUS a higher pick in return. If you said VJax + 2nd for Brees, maybe.... but getting a 1st back as well? In a PPR, Marshall has MUCH more value (IMO) than in VJax and possibly jumps into the top 2-3... so MAYBE. But that's not VJax game and I know you don't play in PPR leagues.Perhaps the 10 team league changes the dynamics a little - particularly if you use 4 pts per pass TD - because everyone's starting roster is that much stronger, so a relative advantage at a position is greater. Still....

You misread the trade. I gave VJax, Naanee, and a 2nd. He gave Drew Brees. It was the Rivers guy who was offering the 1st rounder (likely quite late) for VJax and a 2nd. And that was a couple of weeks ago when pretty much no one had Rivers as a top-3 dynasty QB.QBs are really strange beasts. RBs tend to have pretty constant value across all leagues. Same with WRs. For some reason, though, leagues tend to be all over the map in how they value QBs. I've seen leagues that will only give you pocket lint in exchange for a QB... if you throw in a stick of gum, to boot. I've seen other leagues where top-5 QBs get valued on par with top-5 WRs. Same lineups and scoring system, it's just a question of what the market is. In my league, the market for a top QB has been set. In the past year, VJax has been moved for Schaub+Garcon, and Aaron Rodgers has been moved for Turner/Smiff/Royal. In the context of the rest of the league, the VJax/Naanee/2nd for Brees swap makes sense.

I'll tell you what - I own VJax in two leagues and can't get squat for him right now. I'm with you on the ranking SSOG, but if you're looking for this year, VJax is big time dead weight. It seems most have that feeling as well.I'm surprised you can get top 15 WR value for him - I haven't seen it yet.

I got a lot of lowball offers for VJax, and I just let everyone know "hey look, this is how I value VJax, if you want him you better come with a commensurate offer or else I'll be perfectly content to just keep him until next year". Everything went quiet for a while until both the Rivers and Brees owners acquired a lot of depth at the QB position and were looking to shore up their WR corps at the same time, which resulted in me getting two quality offers within 2 days. It's kind of weird how it all works out sometimes, but if it hadn't worked out, I would have been perfectly content to just hold him until next season.Anyway, I never meant for this to become a dissertation on every team in my league and their trading motivations, I just meant to provide a data point for other VJax owners to use in their own evaluations.

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I don't know how people can't see special talent when they watch Arian Foster. Maybe not Peterson/CJ3/MJD special, but the kid is a very good talent. I took the wait and see approach with him, but at this point, I've waited, I've seen, and I'm ready to commit. He's the guy in Houston long-term.

Foster wants big money and the Texans won't pay it. They trade him to the Seahawks. Still a special talent?Right now, Foster is a top 5-7 pick in startups next year. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a late 2nd - 3rd round guy. ADP is a top 2 start up pick. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a top 2 start up pick. That is special talent. Edited by Concept Coop

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I don't know how people can't see special talent when they watch Arian Foster. Maybe not Peterson/CJ3/MJD special, but the kid is a very good talent. I took the wait and see approach with him, but at this point, I've waited, I've seen, and I'm ready to commit. He's the guy in Houston long-term.

Foster wants big money and the Texans won't pay it. They trade him to the Seahawks. Still a special talent?Right now, Foster is a top 5-7 pick in startups next year. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a late 2nd - 3rd round guy. ADP is a top 2 start up pick. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a top 2 start up pick. That is special talent.
lol what

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I don't know how people can't see special talent when they watch Arian Foster. Maybe not Peterson/CJ3/MJD special, but the kid is a very good talent. I took the wait and see approach with him, but at this point, I've waited, I've seen, and I'm ready to commit. He's the guy in Houston long-term.

Foster wants big money and the Texans won't pay it. They trade him to the Seahawks. Still a special talent?Right now, Foster is a top 5-7 pick in startups next year. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a late 2nd - 3rd round guy. ADP is a top 2 start up pick. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a top 2 start up pick. That is special talent.
lol what
What part don't you get?If Arian Foster changed teams (SEA) it would drastically hurt his value.If Adrian Peterson chagned teams, he would still be a top 2 fantasy back. Make sense?

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I don't know how people can't see special talent when they watch Arian Foster. Maybe not Peterson/CJ3/MJD special, but the kid is a very good talent. I took the wait and see approach with him, but at this point, I've waited, I've seen, and I'm ready to commit. He's the guy in Houston long-term.

Foster wants big money and the Texans won't pay it. They trade him to the Seahawks. Still a special talent?Right now, Foster is a top 5-7 pick in startups next year. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a late 2nd - 3rd round guy. ADP is a top 2 start up pick. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a top 2 start up pick. That is special talent.
lol what
What part don't you get?If Arian Foster changed teams (SEA) it would drastically hurt his value.If Adrian Peterson chagned teams, he would still be a top 2 fantasy back. Make sense?
Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, and MJD are beyond special talents. They are more transcendent talents. The reason Arian Foster would see a value decrease if he moved to the Seahaws is that he is currently performing like a top 3 player (or in other words a transcendent talent). I don't think anybody is disputing that the Texans offense is helping him. I think the argument stems from the fact that even if he weren't on the Texans, his performance and the eye test is indicating he would still be a top 10 player. Going from a top 3 player to a 8-12 player is certainily a decrease in value, but still puts him in some pretty good company.

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I don't know how people can't see special talent when they watch Arian Foster. Maybe not Peterson/CJ3/MJD special, but the kid is a very good talent. I took the wait and see approach with him, but at this point, I've waited, I've seen, and I'm ready to commit. He's the guy in Houston long-term.

Foster wants big money and the Texans won't pay it. They trade him to the Seahawks. Still a special talent?Right now, Foster is a top 5-7 pick in startups next year. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a late 2nd - 3rd round guy. ADP is a top 2 start up pick. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a top 2 start up pick. That is special talent.
lol what
What part don't you get?If Arian Foster changed teams (SEA) it would drastically hurt his value.If Adrian Peterson chagned teams, he would still be a top 2 fantasy back. Make sense?
:lmao: With dynasty, the biggest thing I've learned is to be careful about overpaying for situation. ALWAYS bet on talent - situation and opportunity changes, and most of the time talent begets opportunity eventually.That is not to say that Foster is or isn't a special talent - frankly, I haven't seen enough of him outside of highlights to make that call - but I've seen this overreaction every year, and most of the time you get burned by it. The trick is being able to separate the Chris Johnsons and Ray Rices of the world from the Steve Slatons of the world. (For what it's worth, I inhered a team a few years back and immediately sold Slaton for three 1sts which became McCoy + Dez Bryant, and I turned similar offers for CJ3 down).The point that Concept Coop made is correct - you pick CJ3, ADP, Ray Rice, Turner, etc because of their talent, not their circumstance. Again, I'm not saying that Foster *isn't* a special talent - but he's not proven yet, and many owners expect a top 5 dynasty price for him. As ridiculous as his stats have been - it's worth realizing that at least some of this is due to situation, with Derrick Ward averaging 6.0 YPC and Slaton averaging 5.5 YPC. And you have a 2nd rounder who may compete for touches next year (even though I'm personally not a big Tate believer).

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blah blah blah. I guess Foster can't be the one making the Texans offensive line look good since Derrick Ward had one good quarter against OAKLAND.

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blah blah blah. I guess Foster can't be the one making the Texans offensive line look good since Derrick Ward had one good quarter against OAKLAND.

Nobody would make that argument. I am not making that argument. Arian Foster is a good player, a good NFL running back. Read what I said, and address that. "blah blah blah. You don't think Arian pwns teh NFL. lol"

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Who is saying you should take him over AP, CJ, MJD or Rice? No, he isn't as talented as these guys, but he's still plenty talented. Right now, he's a first round pick because he has both talent and situation. If his situation changed, his value would change, but the same would happen to just about every RB in the NFL.

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Who is saying you should take him over AP, CJ, MJD or Rice? No, he isn't as talented as these guys, but he's still plenty talented. Right now, he's a first round pick because he has both talent and situation. If his situation changed, his value would change, but the same would happen to just about every RB in the NFL.

Not as drastically. Not nearly as drastically. As I pointed out, Peterson, MJD, and CJ would all be top 3, regardless of where they went IMO. Guys like Gore, Turner, S. Jackson, D. Williams would vary a bit, mostly due to age. You can't afford to wait a year, if need be, for a situation to fix itself. That is based off of track record, and your personal evaluation of talent. I think these guys are all more talented than Foster. If you think differently, then my comments shouldn't apply to you. If I thought Foster was a top 5 talent, I would spend a top 3 pick on him. I just personally don't. But I am just some guy in Utah that wastes too much of his life on a sport he never played.

Again, I am not saying Foster is not a good player. I am saying that Foster is not proven and in my opinion, not an elite talent. Foster's team, scheme, O-line are 3 very big variables. Big enough to question how drastically things would change should any of the variables first change.

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blah blah blah. I guess Foster can't be the one making the Texans offensive line look good since Derrick Ward had one good quarter against OAKLAND.

I'm guessing you don't do so well on the reading comprehension stuff, eh?

That is not to say that Foster is or isn't a special talent - frankly, I haven't seen enough of him outside of highlights to make that call - but I've seen this overreaction every year, and most of the time you get burned by it. The trick is being able to separate the Chris Johnsons and Ray Rices of the world from the Steve Slatons of the world.

and

Again, I'm not saying that Foster *isn't* a special talent - but he's not proven yet, and many owners expect a top 5 dynasty price for him. As ridiculous as his stats have been - it's worth realizing that at least some of this is due to situation, with Derrick Ward averaging 6.0 YPC and Slaton averaging 5.5 YPC. And you have a 2nd rounder who may compete for touches next year (even though I'm personally not a big Tate believer).

Foster has been putting up ridiculous stats in this situation - there's no denying that. I'm only cautioning against blindly anointing the guy as a top 5 dynasty franchise prospect on the back of 4 games - especially when there's evidence that situation may be a big factor. (And yeah, I sure hope he's better than Derrick Ward, eh?)

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I like how people come up with reasons why player x isn't as good as his numbers suggest because they know so well being the resident footballguys expert. Tom Brady sucks without Randy Moss right? Emmit Smith was only one of the best ever because of his o-line? Terrell Davis was only good because of the Denver Broncos offensive line? Or John Elway?

Using the offensive line excuse is like saying so and so player would have had an average game if you take away that 50 yard bomb.

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I like how people come up with reasons why player x isn't as good as his numbers suggest because they know so well being the resident footballguys expert. Tom Brady sucks without Randy Moss right? Emmit Smith was only one of the best ever because of his o-line? Terrell Davis was only good because of the Denver Broncos offensive line? Or John Elway?

Using the offensive line excuse is like saying so and so player would have had an average game if you take away that 50 yard bomb.

Why else we would be in the Shark Pool? :popcorn:

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Who is saying you should take him over AP, CJ, MJD or Rice? No, he isn't as talented as these guys, but he's still plenty talented. Right now, he's a first round pick because he has both talent and situation. If his situation changed, his value would change, but the same would happen to just about every RB in the NFL.

Not as drastically. Not nearly as drastically. As I pointed out, Peterson, MJD, and CJ would all be top 3, regardless of where they went IMO. Guys like Gore, Turner, S. Jackson, D. Williams would vary a bit, mostly due to age. You can't afford to wait a year, if need be, for a situation to fix itself. That is based off of track record, and your personal evaluation of talent. I think these guys are all more talented than Foster. If you think differently, then my comments shouldn't apply to you. If I thought Foster was a top 5 talent, I would spend a top 3 pick on him. I just personally don't. But I am just some guy in Utah that wastes too much of his life on a sport he never played.

Again, I am not saying Foster is not a good player. I am saying that Foster is not proven and in my opinion, not an elite talent. Foster's team, scheme, O-line are 3 very big variables. Big enough to question how drastically things would change should any of the variables first change.

That's your opinion. A lot of people (including myself) would disagree.

I love how prior to the season, being in Houston was a death wish for Foster, and now all of the sudden it's great for him.

Foster isn't an elite talent, but he's more talented than a lot of people give him credit for. He would be plenty valuable on a lot of NFL teams.

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Who is saying you should take him over AP, CJ, MJD or Rice? No, he isn't as talented as these guys, but he's still plenty talented. Right now, he's a first round pick because he has both talent and situation. If his situation changed, his value would change, but the same would happen to just about every RB in the NFL.

Not as drastically. Not nearly as drastically. As I pointed out, Peterson, MJD, and CJ would all be top 3, regardless of where they went IMO. Guys like Gore, Turner, S. Jackson, D. Williams would vary a bit, mostly due to age. You can't afford to wait a year, if need be, for a situation to fix itself. That is based off of track record, and your personal evaluation of talent. I think these guys are all more talented than Foster. If you think differently, then my comments shouldn't apply to you. If I thought Foster was a top 5 talent, I would spend a top 3 pick on him. I just personally don't. But I am just some guy in Utah that wastes too much of his life on a sport he never played.

Again, I am not saying Foster is not a good player. I am saying that Foster is not proven and in my opinion, not an elite talent. Foster's team, scheme, O-line are 3 very big variables. Big enough to question how drastically things would change should any of the variables first change.

That's your opinion. A lot of people (including myself) would disagree.

I love how prior to the season, being in Houston was a death wish for Foster, and now all of the sudden it's great for him.

Foster isn't an elite talent, but he's more talented than a lot of people give him credit for. He would be plenty valuable on a lot of NFL teams.

Link? :confused:

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That's your opinion. A lot of people (including myself) would disagree.

I love how prior to the season, being in Houston was a death wish for Foster, and now all of the sudden it's great for him.

Foster isn't an elite talent, but he's more talented than a lot of people give him credit for. He would be plenty valuable on a lot of NFL teams.

Link? :lmao:

Seriously? You don't recall dozens of posts about how Kubiak can't be trusted, as soon as he fumbles once he's yanked, this has RBBC written all over it, he has to compete with Slaton for touches, etc?

Here's one of your own pearls (there are plenty more):

I say buyer beware of the Texans running game as a whole.

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That's your opinion. A lot of people (including myself) would disagree.

I love how prior to the season, being in Houston was a death wish for Foster, and now all of the sudden it's great for him.

Foster isn't an elite talent, but he's more talented than a lot of people give him credit for. He would be plenty valuable on a lot of NFL teams.

Link? :lmao:

Seriously? You don't recall dozens of posts about how Kubiak can't be trusted, as soon as he fumbles once he's yanked, this has RBBC written all over it, he has to compete with Slaton for touches, etc?

Here's one of your own pearls (there are plenty more):

I say buyer beware of the Texans running game as a whole.

Kubiak cant be trusted because his RB's are interchangable, however, whatever RB is starting for him is going to put up top 10 numbers.

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Kubiak cant be trusted because his RB's are interchangable, however, whatever RB is starting for him is going to put up top 10 numbers.

We're talking dynasty rankings here. If we stick with the misconception that Kubiak can't be trusted, wouldn't that mean that's a bad thing long term for Foster? Wouldn't then it be a good thing if he ended up in a place where the coach can be trusted?

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Kubiak cant be trusted because his RB's are interchangable, however, whatever RB is starting for him is going to put up top 10 numbers.

We're talking dynasty rankings here. If we stick with the misconception that Kubiak can't be trusted, wouldn't that mean that's a bad thing long term for Foster? Wouldn't then it be a good thing if he ended up in a place where the coach can be trusted?
Yes

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Kubiak cant be trusted because his RB's are interchangable, however, whatever RB is starting for him is going to put up top 10 numbers.

We're talking dynasty rankings here. If we stick with the misconception that Kubiak can't be trusted, wouldn't that mean that's a bad thing long term for Foster? Wouldn't then it be a good thing if he ended up in a place where the coach can be trusted?
Yes
So you agree then, that being in Houston isn't the main reason for his current value? I was disputing the claim that if Foster changed teams his value would automatically drop drastically.

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Kubiak cant be trusted because his RB's are interchangable, however, whatever RB is starting for him is going to put up top 10 numbers.

We're talking dynasty rankings here. If we stick with the misconception that Kubiak can't be trusted, wouldn't that mean that's a bad thing long term for Foster? Wouldn't then it be a good thing if he ended up in a place where the coach can be trusted?
Yes
So you agree then, that being in Houston isn't the main reason for his current value? I was disputing the claim that if Foster changed teams his value would automatically drop drastically.
No, i think you are missing the point. The biggest reason for his current value is the team he plays for. If he were to switch teams, his value would likely plummet, depending what team he went to.

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I don't know how people can't see special talent when they watch Arian Foster. Maybe not Peterson/CJ3/MJD special, but the kid is a very good talent. I took the wait and see approach with him, but at this point, I've waited, I've seen, and I'm ready to commit. He's the guy in Houston long-term.

Foster wants big money and the Texans won't pay it. They trade him to the Seahawks. Still a special talent?Right now, Foster is a top 5-7 pick in startups next year. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a late 2nd - 3rd round guy. ADP is a top 2 start up pick. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a top 2 start up pick. That is special talent.
lol what
What part don't you get?If Arian Foster changed teams (SEA) it would drastically hurt his value.If Adrian Peterson chagned teams, he would still be a top 2 fantasy back. Make sense?
I own Foster and I totally agree. The one thing I'll say in defense of Foster is that Peterson is a transcendent talent - a special player that comes around once every few years. While Peterson is a quantum leap above Foster in talent, Peterson is a quantum leap above almost everyone in terms of talent. The thing to remember here is that the write ups about Foster in the preseason now seem to be very accurate: that Foster is the perfect RB for the one cut Kubiak offense. So yes, Foster might have a very average career if he was on another team. But the fact remains that he isn't on another team.

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No, i think you are missing the point. The biggest reason for his current value is the team he plays for. If he were to switch teams, his value would likely plummet, depending what team he went to.

The biggest reason Katy Perry is hot is she isn't an acne-ridden 79 year old 300 pound woman.

For now, I'll be enjoying her gifts for the foreseeable future.

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No, i think you are missing the point. The biggest reason for his current value is the team he plays for. If he were to switch teams, his value would likely plummet, depending what team he went to.

The biggest reason Katy Perry is hot is she isn't an acne-ridden 79 year old 300 pound woman.

For now, I'll be enjoying her gifts for the foreseeable future.

And the reason Katie Perry will be forgotten in 5 years is because she isnt Michal Jackson.

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I don't know how people can't see special talent when they watch Arian Foster. Maybe not Peterson/CJ3/MJD special, but the kid is a very good talent. I took the wait and see approach with him, but at this point, I've waited, I've seen, and I'm ready to commit. He's the guy in Houston long-term.

Foster wants big money and the Texans won't pay it. They trade him to the Seahawks. Still a special talent?Right now, Foster is a top 5-7 pick in startups next year. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a late 2nd - 3rd round guy. ADP is a top 2 start up pick. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a top 2 start up pick. That is special talent.
lol what
What part don't you get?If Arian Foster changed teams (SEA) it would drastically hurt his value.If Adrian Peterson chagned teams, he would still be a top 2 fantasy back. Make sense?
I own Foster and I totally agree. The one thing I'll say in defense of Foster is that Peterson is a transcendent talent - a special player that comes around once every few years. While Peterson is a quantum leap above Foster in talent, Peterson is a quantum leap above almost everyone in terms of talent. The thing to remember here is that the write ups about Foster in the preseason now seem to be very accurate: that Foster is the perfect RB for the one cut Kubiak offense. So yes, Foster might have a very average career if he was on another team. But the fact remains that he isn't on another team.
I agree. 100%. There are only about 10 or so players I would move Foster for, mano y mano. But I would be actively shopping him to those owners.

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I don't know how people can't see special talent when they watch Arian Foster. Maybe not Peterson/CJ3/MJD special, but the kid is a very good talent. I took the wait and see approach with him, but at this point, I've waited, I've seen, and I'm ready to commit. He's the guy in Houston long-term.

Foster wants big money and the Texans won't pay it. They trade him to the Seahawks. Still a special talent?Right now, Foster is a top 5-7 pick in startups next year. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a late 2nd - 3rd round guy. ADP is a top 2 start up pick. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a top 2 start up pick. That is special talent.
Arian Foster will be every bit as special of a talent whether he plays for Houston, Seattle, or the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Talent is independent of situation. His production will decrease, but his talent will not.You're right that Adrian Peterson is such a sublime talent that he'd remain a stud no matter where he was, and that Arian Foster is not at that level. That's why Adrian is a tier 1 back with a value score of 98 while Arian is a tier 2 back with a value score of 82. There's a huge gap between those two players. I'm not comparing Foster to Peterson, though... I'm comparing him to guys like Ryan Mathews, Beanie Wells, or Lesean McCoy. Foster is every bit as talented as those guys, and he's in a better situation, to boot. The result is that he gets ranked above those guys. I think Foster is as talented as Mendenhall, so Foster gets ranked near Mendenhall (a bit below because Mendenhall is a slightly more secure investment, but all in all pretty comparable- I've got Foster at value 82 and Mendy at value 84).Arian Foster is not a top 5 talent. That's why Arian Foster doesn't have a top-5 ranking. I do think he's a top 12 talent, though, which is a lot more than most people are giving him credit for. He's not Matt Forte or Joseph Addai here- a mediocre-to-below-average RB whose value is wholly and completely derived from his situation, a guy who is basically just filling in until his team goes about securing a more adequate replacement. He's better than that.

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I don't know how people can't see special talent when they watch Arian Foster. Maybe not Peterson/CJ3/MJD special, but the kid is a very good talent. I took the wait and see approach with him, but at this point, I've waited, I've seen, and I'm ready to commit. He's the guy in Houston long-term.

Foster wants big money and the Texans won't pay it. They trade him to the Seahawks. Still a special talent?Right now, Foster is a top 5-7 pick in startups next year. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a late 2nd - 3rd round guy. ADP is a top 2 start up pick. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a top 2 start up pick. That is special talent.
Arian Foster will be every bit as special of a talent whether he plays for Houston, Seattle, or the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Talent is independent of situation. His production will decrease, but his talent will not.You're right that Adrian Peterson is such a sublime talent that he'd remain a stud no matter where he was, and that Arian Foster is not at that level. That's why Adrian is a tier 1 back with a value score of 98 while Arian is a tier 2 back with a value score of 82. There's a huge gap between those two players. I'm not comparing Foster to Peterson, though... I'm comparing him to guys like Ryan Mathews, Beanie Wells, or Lesean McCoy. Foster is every bit as talented as those guys, and he's in a better situation, to boot. The result is that he gets ranked above those guys. I think Foster is as talented as Mendenhall, so Foster gets ranked near Mendenhall (a bit below because Mendenhall is a slightly more secure investment, but all in all pretty comparable- I've got Foster at value 82 and Mendy at value 84).Arian Foster is not a top 5 talent. That's why Arian Foster doesn't have a top-5 ranking. I do think he's a top 12 talent, though, which is a lot more than most people are giving him credit for. He's not Matt Forte or Joseph Addai here- a mediocre-to-below-average RB whose value is wholly and completely derived from his situation, a guy who is basically just filling in until his team goes about securing a more adequate replacement. He's better than that.
I don't have an opinion about Foster because I haven't seen him play yet, but even if his ceiling is Dominick Davis, as someone said, that is not a bad ceiling at all. DD had three solid years. I love Jonathan Stewart but I haven't seen one great year of production from him yet. So, sometimes a slow horse on a fast track is better than a fast horse on a slow track. Or something like that...

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No, i think you are missing the point. The biggest reason for his current value is the team he plays for. If he were to switch teams, his value would likely plummet, depending what team he went to.

You said that having Kubiak is a bad thing for his long term value because he can't be trusted. You also said if he were to switch teams, his value would likely plummet, but then added the caveat "depending on what team he went to". If there are teams out there that would be as good or even better for him long term, then his value isn't so tied into situation and wouldn't automatically plummet as another poster suggested.

As SSOG said, talent is independent of situation. Certain talents are better suited for certain situations, but his talent will be the same no matter where he's playing. That's why the most talented players don't always put up the best numbers. No one is comparing him to the elite talents of the league, and everyone has a different definition of "special" so that's debatable as well. He is, however, more talented than many people are giving him credit for, and he is not just a product of the system (a system that people were bashing prior to the season but now are crediting with his success).

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You're right that Adrian Peterson is such a sublime talent that he'd remain a stud no matter where he was, and that Arian Foster is not at that level. That's why Adrian is a tier 1 back with a value score of 98 100 while Arian is a tier 2 back with a value score of 82. There's a huge gap between those two players. I'm not comparing Foster to Peterson, though... I'm comparing him to guys like Ryan Mathews, Beanie Wells, or Lesean McCoy. Foster is every bit as talented as those guys, and he's in a better situation, to boot. The result is that he gets ranked above those guys. I think Foster is as talented as Mendenhall, so Foster gets ranked near Mendenhall (a bit below because Mendenhall is a slightly more secure investment, but all in all pretty comparable- I've got Foster at value 82 and Mendy at value 84).

Arian Foster is not a top 5 talent. That's why Arian Foster doesn't have a top-5 ranking. I do think he's a top 12 talent, though, which is a lot more than most people are giving him credit for. He's not Matt Forte or Joseph Addai here- a mediocre-to-below-average RB whose value is wholly and completely derived from his situation, a guy who is basically just filling in until his team goes about securing a more adequate replacement. He's better than that.

It's really semantics, but I've updated your post for what it should really read...

:goodposting:

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That's your opinion. A lot of people (including myself) would disagree.

I love how prior to the season, being in Houston was a death wish for Foster, and now all of the sudden it's great for him.

Foster isn't an elite talent, but he's more talented than a lot of people give him credit for. He would be plenty valuable on a lot of NFL teams.

Link? :goodposting:

Seriously? You don't recall dozens of posts about how Kubiak can't be trusted, as soon as he fumbles once he's yanked, this has RBBC written all over it, he has to compete with Slaton for touches, etc?

Here's one of your own pearls (there are plenty more):

I say buyer beware of the Texans running game as a whole.

Kubiak cant be trusted because his RB's are interchangable, however, whatever RB is starting for him is going to put up top 10 numbers.

Context is relevant. When was Tate put on IR? Exactly.

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Context is relevant. When was Tate put on IR? Exactly.

We're talking talent here- did Foster become more talented when Tate when on IR? Exactly.

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Anybody else here view Ahmad Bradshaw as a sell high (RIGHT NOW!)? From what I have read about him, going back to the last couple years, his legs/feet just aren't cut out to be a long time starter in the NFL. I don't own him in dynasty leagues, but I won't be targeting him. I don't think I would feel comfortable knowing he was my lowRB1/highRB for the next 4 years. If I could get (young) RB1 value, I would move him yesterday.

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Interesting to see some of the bigger proponents of pedigree jumping on the Foster bandwagon as a long term solution. Not that the UDFA is a problem, just that they're writing off Tate as a non-factor. I'm not sure that the Texans will be willing to throw away a 2nd rounder as quickly.

Here's my take...

Foster's got skills. He has talent, but as has been said, its not transcendent, so a lot of his current value is boosted by his current situation, while his future value is limited by the same. He is Pierre Thomas, though maybe a bit more talented. That lack of transcendent talent, though, is the problem, in that there's a highly drafted RB sitting on IR ready to take some work next year.

The bottom line is that there's little downside to selling by the end of 2010, and lots of downside to keeping him. Does anyone believe that he's got the talent to **become** a top 4 RB? I doubt it. So, ride the lightning through 2010, and move him after, even if it seems like a lateral move by the rankings. Get Mendenhall. Get Stewart, Mathews, or Best. The floor for that crew seems quite a bit higher than the worst case for Foster, while Foster's ceiling isn't much higher ( if at all ).

My first targets for Foster would be to try and add pieces to get to a top 4 runner, but if that fell through then I'd be more than happy to take Mendenhall for him. I'd be even happier to take McCoy or Beanie and get something else. Its worth it just to eliminate the risks.

In full disclosure, on the one team where I owned Foster, I sold him after week 1 for Jon Stewart. I think that move was less than optimal, but only the timing, not the pieces. As foster has continued his pace, I likely could have gotten the same deal in the offseason while enjoying Foster's production this year. However, it was worth the move to me as I have more confidence in Stewart long term, so I'm sleeping a little better at night. I've seen how quickly these RB5-10 guys can become RB25 guys.

Early 2011 will be very interesting. Per rotoworld, Foster is a RFA next year, so watching the Texans decisions on how much to pay the man is going to say a lot about whether he's a special back, or just a guy in a special scheme.

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Anybody else here view Ahmad Bradshaw as a sell high (RIGHT NOW!)? From what I have read about him, going back to the last couple years, his legs/feet just aren't cut out to be a long time starter in the NFL. I don't own him in dynasty leagues, but I won't be targeting him. I don't think I would feel comfortable knowing he was my lowRB1/highRB for the next 4 years. If I could get (young) RB1 value, I would move him yesterday.

He does run bowlegged, and I can't remember too many other bowlegged RBs, so it's tough to say if it would shorten his career or not. I will say his injury last week had nothing to do with him, his leg just got rolled up on, which can happen to anyone.That being said, I wouldn't want to rely on him as my RB1 either, but I don't think too many people are or would be willing to give up young RB1 value for him.

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Anybody else here view Ahmad Bradshaw as a sell high (RIGHT NOW!)? From what I have read about him, going back to the last couple years, his legs/feet just aren't cut out to be a long time starter in the NFL. I don't own him in dynasty leagues, but I won't be targeting him. I don't think I would feel comfortable knowing he was my lowRB1/highRB for the next 4 years. If I could get (young) RB1 value, I would move him yesterday.

I am holding and I think I like him as my 2RB. Not many backs are long time starters in the NFL anyway and I think this guy has the rare talent of being able to break off big runs and catch. With guys like Greene, McFadden and Blount on my bench, I feel comfy with him as my #2RB or Flex. I see him keeping the gig for at least the next 2 years so in my book he's a hold or buy..

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Context is relevant. When was Tate put on IR? Exactly.

We're talking talent here- did Foster become more talented when Tate when on IR? Exactly.
Lets not forget that Slaton was a special talent, top 10 dynasty back, and the future of the Houston ground game at one time too. Kubiak ruined that, whether that was right or wrong. It is very fair and accurate to say that most NFL caliber running backs can put up good numbers in Houston's offense. It is also very fair and accurate to say that Kubiak seems to view his backs and interchangeable, making it easier for someone to lose their job, ala Steve Slaton. It isn't black or white, and you are trying to make it so, by clinging to perceived inconsistent comment. Pulling up an old post, made before Tate got hurt, is a classless move, in my opinion. Before Tate got hurt, it looked like it was going to be a full-blown RBBC, with Kubiak benching them all on a rotating basis. The "gem" you are harping on was actually a pretty logical statement, at the time.

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Context is relevant. When was Tate put on IR? Exactly.

We're talking talent here- did Foster become more talented when Tate when on IR? Exactly.
Lets not forget that Slaton was a special talent, top 10 dynasty back, and the future of the Houston ground game at one time too. Kubiak ruined that, whether that was right or wrong. It is very fair and accurate to say that most NFL caliber running backs can put up good numbers in Houston's offense. It is also very fair and accurate to say that Kubiak seems to view his backs and interchangeable, making it easier for someone to lose their job, ala Steve Slaton. It isn't black or white, and you are trying to make it so, by clinging to perceived inconsistent comment. Pulling up an old post, made before Tate got hurt, is a classless move, in my opinion. Before Tate got hurt, it looked like it was going to be a full-blown RBBC, with Kubiak benching them all on a rotating basis. The "gem" you are harping on was actually a pretty logical statement, at the time.

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Anybody else here view Ahmad Bradshaw as a sell high (RIGHT NOW!)? From what I have read about him, going back to the last couple years, his legs/feet just aren't cut out to be a long time starter in the NFL. I don't own him in dynasty leagues, but I won't be targeting him. I don't think I would feel comfortable knowing he was my lowRB1/highRB for the next 4 years. If I could get (young) RB1 value, I would move him yesterday.

I think it would depend on what you could get in return. Personally, I just love watching him run--his style is so aggressive and it is fun to root for him. I can see your concern and it is valid, but as I have said elsewhere, he plays well hurt. And NFL RBs are always hurt. So in the long run, I wonder if his bowleggedness and feet/ankle issue is more of a concern than the value of having a guy who can play hurt. Compare him to McFadden. The guy is always on the sidelines for little things like hammy and turf toe. That scares me more.

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Interesting to see some of the bigger proponents of pedigree jumping on the Foster bandwagon as a long term solution. Not that the UDFA is a problem, just that they're writing off Tate as a non-factor. I'm not sure that the Texans will be willing to throw away a 2nd rounder as quickly.

Here's my take...

Foster's got skills. He has talent, but as has been said, its not transcendent, so a lot of his current value is boosted by his current situation, while his future value is limited by the same. He is Pierre Thomas, though maybe a bit more talented. That lack of transcendent talent, though, is the problem, in that there's a highly drafted RB sitting on IR ready to take some work next year.

The bottom line is that there's little downside to selling by the end of 2010, and lots of downside to keeping him. Does anyone believe that he's got the talent to **become** a top 4 RB? I doubt it. So, ride the lightning through 2010, and move him after, even if it seems like a lateral move by the rankings. Get Mendenhall. Get Stewart, Mathews, or Best. The floor for that crew seems quite a bit higher than the worst case for Foster, while Foster's ceiling isn't much higher ( if at all ).

My first targets for Foster would be to try and add pieces to get to a top 4 runner, but if that fell through then I'd be more than happy to take Mendenhall for him. I'd be even happier to take McCoy or Beanie and get something else. Its worth it just to eliminate the risks.

In full disclosure, on the one team where I owned Foster, I sold him after week 1 for Jon Stewart. I think that move was less than optimal, but only the timing, not the pieces. As foster has continued his pace, I likely could have gotten the same deal in the offseason while enjoying Foster's production this year. However, it was worth the move to me as I have more confidence in Stewart long term, so I'm sleeping a little better at night. I've seen how quickly these RB5-10 guys can become RB25 guys.

Early 2011 will be very interesting. Per rotoworld, Foster is a RFA next year, so watching the Texans decisions on how much to pay the man is going to say a lot about whether he's a special back, or just a guy in a special scheme.

If the Texans commit big money to Foster on a 4 or 5 year contract, i would feel ALOT better about him.

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Anybody else here view Ahmad Bradshaw as a sell high (RIGHT NOW!)? From what I have read about him, going back to the last couple years, his legs/feet just aren't cut out to be a long time starter in the NFL. I don't own him in dynasty leagues, but I won't be targeting him. I don't think I would feel comfortable knowing he was my lowRB1/highRB for the next 4 years. If I could get (young) RB1 value, I would move him yesterday.

I think it would depend on what you could get in return. Personally, I just love watching him run--his style is so aggressive and it is fun to root for him. I can see your concern and it is valid, but as I have said elsewhere, he plays well hurt. And NFL RBs are always hurt. So in the long run, I wonder if his bowleggedness and feet/ankle issue is more of a concern than the value of having a guy who can play hurt. Compare him to McFadden. The guy is always on the sidelines for little things like hammy and turf toe. That scares me more.
But he's only on the sidelines during practice...he's always on the field during games.

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I like how people come up with reasons why player x isn't as good as his numbers suggest because they know so well being the resident footballguys expert. Tom Brady sucks without Randy Moss right? Emmit Smith was only one of the best ever because of his o-line? Terrell Davis was only good because of the Denver Broncos offensive line? Or John Elway?

Using the offensive line excuse is like saying so and so player would have had an average game if you take away that 50 yard bomb.

Are you seriously comparing Arian Foster to TD or Emmit? Or Brady or Elway? The dude has been putting up great stats, but it's *FOUR GAMES*, and other lesser talents on the team have produced at a similar clip (albeit on a smaller scale). Let's not put the guy in Canton yet, mmkay?

Stats != talent. Rather, stats = talent + opportunity + other factors (health, etc). You can't use stats to "prove" how talented a player is, because talent is not the only factor in determining production on the field. Sometimes, a player will outperform his talent because of the situation, sometimes he will under-perform. This is why football is often called the ultimate team sport. See, e.g., Moss on OAK vs. Moss on NEP. Was Moss suddenly not talented? Or was it just his situation holding him back?

This is especially true for a RB - there's a reason certain situations are more desirable. The surrounding cast is an ENORMOUS factor in the production of a RB. If you have a prolific pass offense, you're going to have more running room than if you're facing 8 man fronts. If you have a great offensive line who creates space, you're going to produce more than if you're getting hit in the backfield every time. It's safe to say that a more talented back will produce more given the same situation: e.g., Chester Taylor was a 1k yard back in MIN before ADP arrived, and ADP produced more with the good OL than Chester did because he has more ability. If ADP went to a bad situation, he might actually produce less than Chester Taylor in MIN, but that doesn't mean he's less talented.

The reason SSOG, myself and many others preach "talent over situation" is that situation can change dramatically from year to year, and thus dramatically affect a player's value from year to year. However, talent is relatively stable by comparison. (Note that talent is more than raw physical tools - CJ is so good not just because of his speed but also the vision, patience and other skills).

If you want to argue that Foster is extremely talented because of what you're seeing on the field, I'm listening... as I said, I haven't watched him enough to evaluate the talent. But you lose a lot of credibility when you rely entirely on a very small sample size of stats, dismiss the situation entirely (even when other lesser talents have been similarly productive in that same situation), and then make baseless comparisons to a bunch of HOF players.

--

I'd also point out that talking about situation and offensive line in the context of evaluating a player's dynasty value is NOTHING like the "take away that one big play" argument. Though at the sake of going down a rat hole, that can be a very relevant argument. If CJ or DeSean have a big 70 yard play, you don't dismiss it. But when LenDale has a 70 yard run, or an otherwise uninvolved WR catches a big play on a broken coverage, you should take it with a grain of salt because the probability of it being repeated is low... but I digress.

Edited by corpcow

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Context is relevant. When was Tate put on IR? Exactly.

We're talking talent here- did Foster become more talented when Tate when on IR? Exactly.
Lets not forget that Slaton was a special talent, top 10 dynasty back, and the future of the Houston ground game at one time too. Kubiak ruined that, whether that was right or wrong. It is very fair and accurate to say that most NFL caliber running backs can put up good numbers in Houston's offense. It is also very fair and accurate to say that Kubiak seems to view his backs and interchangeable, making it easier for someone to lose their job, ala Steve Slaton. It isn't black or white, and you are trying to make it so, by clinging to perceived inconsistent comment. Pulling up an old post, made before Tate got hurt, is a classless move, in my opinion. Before Tate got hurt, it looked like it was going to be a full-blown RBBC, with Kubiak benching them all on a rotating basis. The "gem" you are harping on was actually a pretty logical statement, at the time.
Classless move? Come on now. I only brought it up because people were saying that Houston was not a good situation for a FF RB, and now they are saying it is. For the record, GD isn't one of those people- he's been fairly consistent saying that Houston isn't a great spot long term, and his low ranking of Foster reflects that. If you think that is classless, I'd hate to see what you thought if I would've dug up some of his other quotes about Foster back then.You're wrong about Slaton- a lot of people thought he was not a special talent nor the future of the Houston ground game. Kubiak did not ruin that because he never was. Wrong about Kubiak in general as well, but I won't bother arguing with you since you seem pretty set in your opinions.

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Early 2011 will be very interesting. Per rotoworld, Foster is a RFA next year, so watching the Texans decisions on how much to pay the man is going to say a lot about whether he's a special back, or just a guy in a special scheme.

If the Texans commit big money to Foster on a 4 or 5 year contract, i would feel ALOT better about him.
;)

As I said earlier in the thread:

There *IS* an important difference between an undrafted RB and an early-mid-round pick, but it's not (always) talent. When a team invests in a player with a (relatively) early pick, and the contract that follows, they're going to be more - shall we say, forgiving - with that player. So, the difference between Arian Foster and Mendenhall is that Mendenhall is less likely to see someone drafted early in front of him (presumably, since they already have more invested in the position) and perhaps have a longer leash if he struggles down the road (see, e.g., Russell, Jamarcus).

Yes, this is irrelevant once they sign their next deals, but when we're talking about their long-term certainty today it should at least be considered.

When NFL front offices commit money and other limited resources to a player, it's usually a good idea to take notice.

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For what it's worth - I just traded for Lynch (sort of accidentally): Lynch for a 2011 2nd, 2012 2nd, 2013 2nd and Malcom Floyd for Lynch. All of the 2nds are mine, and they should all be pretty late. (I have Rodgers/Ryan, CJ3/Wells/Hillis/Brown/Scott/Lynch, Driver/Finley/Keller/Holmes/Nanee/Maclin/Benn/Chambers/Rice/Cook and one of the top set of IDPs in the league).I kind of put it out there expecting him not to accept given our previous exchanges, and to be honest I didn't realized I offered 3x 2nd rounders ;) I have always loved Floyd, but it's a non-PPR and RB-premium league (even starting 2) - and I have plenty of other depth there.(Oh yeah, I also have Hernandez on my taxi squad).

Have you guys seen any other trades being done with Lynch? I'm trying to get a handle on whether I made a mistake and/or overpaid :) I guess a lot depends on the short and long term value o Floyd, but I just figured I have more depth there and with my later picks it'll be easier to add WRs than RBs.
I had some pretty good RB depth on one roster so I moved Marshawn Lynch and Felix Jones for Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott this week. Figured I could get consistent production from Benson (although he isn't lighting it up this year so far) and was unsure about what role Lynch will play (although I do think he'll get the higher % of carries in SEA). Of course Felix will likely now finally blow up.

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