The Real Yoda
Footballguy
That Ray Rice fella looked kind of nice huh? 
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
I was in the pool
Footballguy
Rice saved his big time effort for all the owners that didn't sell this season and are in the semi's today. Watch a few on this thread will say tomorrow that his talent has improved since last week 
Not that 1 game is any indication of future, long term success (trust me, I'm more long sighted than most and put very little stock in game to game developments), but the Rice and Mendenhall games are pure irony, given the negative opinions of both being shared by some in here.
I personally think the Rice game was simply to be expected, as he is one of the most talented running backs in the league and games like these are a matter of when for him, not if. I would like those who have dissenting views of his talent to review the tape from today and offer insight into what I am missing, because everything I saw today indicates there aren't too many running backs that are better in the entire league (and this is not a singular game, he did it basically all of last season and has done this a few times this season, just to less fan fare because he didn't get into the end zone).
Mendenhall's performance, however, came as a bit of a surprise to me. I certainly did not expect him to do what he did against that defense. This was as big, fast, strong, athletic, powerful, and shifty as he has looked all season. Some of it was due to him having actual running lanes for just about the first time all season, but a lot of it was simply Mendenhall just playing great and making moves. I still will say that this is not the norm and he was playing above his head (although he is still way better than others are giving him credit for in my opinion), but given the level of the defense it was against, it was interesting none the less.
I personally think the Rice game was simply to be expected, as he is one of the most talented running backs in the league and games like these are a matter of when for him, not if. I would like those who have dissenting views of his talent to review the tape from today and offer insight into what I am missing, because everything I saw today indicates there aren't too many running backs that are better in the entire league (and this is not a singular game, he did it basically all of last season and has done this a few times this season, just to less fan fare because he didn't get into the end zone).
Mendenhall's performance, however, came as a bit of a surprise to me. I certainly did not expect him to do what he did against that defense. This was as big, fast, strong, athletic, powerful, and shifty as he has looked all season. Some of it was due to him having actual running lanes for just about the first time all season, but a lot of it was simply Mendenhall just playing great and making moves. I still will say that this is not the norm and he was playing above his head (although he is still way better than others are giving him credit for in my opinion), but given the level of the defense it was against, it was interesting none the less.
SSOG
Moderator
Regarding Ray Rice, you think people would have learned their lesson from MJD. Jones-Drew had a slow start to the season and all the haters started coming out of the woodwork... and then over the 6 weeks coming into this week, MJD went out and averaged 154 yards from scrimmage. You can get a back like that down, but it's never forever. They're simply too talented.
Yeah, i tend to agree with you, in PPR leagues which is the leagues I play in, his value falls a lot. The problem is that he isn't even looking for dump offs right now. I'm not sure if the coaching staff has instructed him to just block and not look for a dump off or not, and am hoping with more experience this changes in the years ahead. I'm not holding my breath though. In non-ppr leagues his dynasty value should be much higher, and in PPR if he stays in his current role then I would agree with you. But we must assume some level of maturity and progression right? He is a rookie after all.I noticed the same thing - Williams is in a lot around the goal-line and the only runs you see are draws out of a shotgun formation down there - talk about little faith in just powering it in with your tank of a running back...I've watched all the TB games this year and don't see Blount as a long-term answer. He may have a similar role in 2011 (which is the basis of your question - keeping him for next year), but he is very limited in the passing game (do they call pass plays on even 40% of the downs when he is in??). My personal rankings are PPR based, so Blount is down at #25 on the RB list. If the goal line situation were different (aka he got plenty of carries with a decent success rate when they were down there) I could see him a few spots higher on my list. I see Tampa going to the air more in 2011 with Freeman, Williams, Benn and Winslow becoming more potent as a group. Blount will get less carries outside of preserving a lead/run the clock in the second half than in 2010 in my opinion.I haven't seen much talk on this board regarding Leggarrate Blount. I've been a huge fan the entire year (yes, unfortunately i picked him up in like week 2 for all my teams, lol), but am having issues deciding what his value is in regards to other RBs and WRs. I need to decide whether I keep him or not as part of my 6 keepers at no cost for next year. I'll avoid making this an assistant coaching post, god forbid i have to deal with the AC policeThe big problem I have with Blount is his coach. Did you see Norv Turner with Tolbert the other night? He gave him the ball for like 6 straight possessions inside the 10 yard line. Raheem Morris is the exact opposite. You have a 250 lb monster of a back, and the guy doesn't hand the ball off to Blount on the goal line. Instead he is running trick plays where his fullback is tossing TDs, lol. The last game i watched, on 2 different 3rd and 1s, this idiot calls a pass play, the first time for like 50 yards and the second for like 15 yards. I mean, c'mon. Of course they failed both and had to punt. They had the ball on a new set of downs inside the 10 and Blount wasn't even in the game (before half), the next time they had the ball on the 2 yard line give it to Blount 1 time and then start throwing. Sorry, long way of saying that i think Morris calls some really stupid plays. If you have the ball on the 5 yard line and in with 4 plays, here is how you get 98% of a TD --give the ball to Blount 4 times.Anyway, where would you guys rate Blount? I personally rate him very highly. I would put him in the 15 RB range, higher than a RB like Forte and close to Deangelo. I don't think most agree. Compared to WRs, I'd place him in the Crabtree area, althoug in dynasty i like high talent WRs more, so I would probably rate Crabtree higher. any opinions?
You may be right. I sometimes have a hard time using the logic of "if the coach doesn't give him enough touches they see something we don't" etc. The reason is that coaches sometimes are idiots. Arian Foster was an undrafted free agent on the practice squad, now he is statistically the best RB in the game and ranked probably top 5 by most fantasy "experts." Peyton Hillis was traded for peanuts by Denver. Didn't the coach see more of Hillis than you or me last year? Why didn't they give him a chance? Why didn't the coaches see Arian fosters talent? Michael Vick sat on the bench the entire year last year. The Walrus, otherwise known as the philli head coach and one of the best QB coaches of the last 20 years, sat him for an entire year! He started Kolb and was intending to sit vick again, only luck was on Vick's side and Kolb got injured in the 1st game. Even with Vick putting up outstanding performances in his first few attempts, the walrus attempted AGAIN to sit Vick for the rest of the year and play Kolb. Vick is now the best or in the top 2 QBs in the game, and surely the best fantasy QB in the game. Why didn't the Walrus see this talent? Why did he waste an entire year of Vick's prime and sit him on the bench as the 3rd option last year and attempt to have him sit the bench agains this year?Basically, coaches make errors up the wazzu. Just because they don't play him like we think they should doesn't mean squat to me, unless my own eyes confirm what they are "seeing." Just my 2 cents.Ive got him in the 30's, along with guys like Chris Ivory, Ronnie Brown and BJGE. He has looked OK, but i dont think he has done anything to warrant being a top 20 back yet. He may end up being a top 20 guy, but he has alot to prove before getting there. The fact that Morris isnt giving him the ball as much as you think he deserves it might be due to something he sees in Blount that you and I do not. Its not like he was a first round pick, he went undrafted, and was cut by the Titans earlier in the season. There is a chance Blount ends up being the Bucs RB of the future, i just dont think it is very likely at this point.I haven't seen much talk on this board regarding Leggarrate Blount. I've been a huge fan the entire year (yes, unfortunately i picked him up in like week 2 for all my teams, lol), but am having issues deciding what his value is in regards to other RBs and WRs. I need to decide whether I keep him or not as part of my 6 keepers at no cost for next year. I'll avoid making this an assistant coaching post, god forbid i have to deal with the AC police
Not saying you are wrong, but do you actually have any facts to backup your statement that Blount is "very mediocre on short yardage/goallinge?" I understand the coaches made that comment, but I'm questioning the coach that made the comment. I would love to see the facts if you are privy to them, as in the actual numbers. What's his yards per carry average on 3rd/4th and less than 2, on the goalline, etc. If you're just repeating what you heard, i can understand that, but i just don't put much stock into it. Thanks.Blount has been very mediocre on short yardage/goal-line plays. It's easy to assume that because he's such a big body he should be great in short-yardage, but he seems to have trouble finding the hole and he takes a long time to get up to speed.I agree with those that think Blount is not the long-term answer for Tampa Bay. I just don't think he's versatile enough, or special enough at the things he is good at. I picked him up early this season when I thought he was flying under the radar, then sold a couple of weeks ago. I haven't regretted it at all. I'd put him in the late twenties or low thirties for dynasty backs (.5 PPR).I haven't seen much talk on this board regarding Leggarrate Blount. I've been a huge fan the entire year (yes, unfortunately i picked him up in like week 2 for all my teams, lol), but am having issues deciding what his value is in regards to other RBs and WRs. I need to decide whether I keep him or not as part of my 6 keepers at no cost for next year. I'll avoid making this an assistant coaching post, god forbid i have to deal with the AC police
The big problem I have with Blount is his coach. Did you see Norv Turner with Tolbert the other night? He gave him the ball for like 6 straight possessions inside the 10 yard line. Raheem Morris is the exact opposite. You have a 250 lb monster of a back, and the guy doesn't hand the ball off to Blount on the goal line. Instead he is running trick plays where his fullback is tossing TDs, lol. The last game i watched, on 2 different 3rd and 1s, this idiot calls a pass play, the first time for like 50 yards and the second for like 15 yards. I mean, c'mon. Of course they failed both and had to punt. They had the ball on a new set of downs inside the 10 and Blount wasn't even in the game (before half), the next time they had the ball on the 2 yard line give it to Blount 1 time and then start throwing. Sorry, long way of saying that i think Morris calls some really stupid plays. If you have the ball on the 5 yard line and in with 4 plays, here is how you get 98% of a TD --give the ball to Blount 4 times.
Anyway, where would you guys rate Blount? I personally rate him very highly. I would put him in the 15 RB range, higher than a RB like Forte and close to Deangelo. I don't think most agree. Compared to WRs, I'd place him in the Crabtree area, althoug in dynasty i like high talent WRs more, so I would probably rate Crabtree higher. any opinions?
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Emmanuel Sanders seems to be getting more looks in the PITT offense, what kind of upside does he have? Does he have the goods to replace Ward as soon as next season?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Well you ask two questions here. Does he have the good? Yes.Can he replace Ward as early as next year? Maybe, but I doubt it.I think Ward will decline slowly like Donald Driver. He's such a leader and tough blocker and he's still pretty good. Sanders may step up to his level as a wideout next season, but the other things Ward brings to the table will likely keep him on the field an awful lot.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
If the Steelers win the SB this year, I see Ward retiring. He seems more and more fed up with the crap the league has started doing re: helmet to helmet hits etc., and with a third ring, he's probably made about as good of a case for the HOF as he will ever have a chance of making. This is all speculation on my part, of course.In regard to Sanders, I've been stashing him in all of my leagues. I think he is set to earn a lot of looks in the offense. Hell, Ben was already looking his way in key situations on that comeback drive. If not for a uncalled grab by the DB, Sanders scores the winning TD.
Richard_the_Vampire
Footballguy
I think this may be Ward's last year. His knees aren't what they used to be, and with labor problems looming I see him retiring. Sanders and Wallace are both better than him at this point; better to bow out gracefully.
renesauz
IBL Representative
Terrible, terrible post.Hillis is limited and didn't fit Denver's scheme. Foster came literally from nowhere, and earned a bigger role he was rightfully given...in a relatively short period of time. And Vick? Vick was TERRIBLE last year...Reid was shockingly fast to give Vick the job this season...and rightfully so (in hindsight).All too often players fit one scheme well, yet are average or worse in another. Players often improve one specific area of their game enough to go from backup to stud in short order (ESPECIALLY young players). Most importantly...coaches have to go off what they see in practice, on the 100 or more reps they see during the week instead of the 5 reps the "stud backup" gets when the "idiot coach" lets him have in a game. Sometimes a player does significantly better or worse in practice than when live bullets are flying...and there's no way to tell this until they've had significant reps in areal games. IE: Occassionaly (not often) a coach may "have it wrong", but you have "it right" for the wrong reasons. Far more often, the practice reps are the better long term indicator.plyka said:
Last edited by a moderator:
I was in the pool
Footballguy
I have really enjoyed seeing a few of these young WRs in 2010 develop as the season goes along. Sanders is one of them where he was only on special teams for about half the year, then played a few snaps a game at WR (getting a surprising number of catches based on playing time on offense) and now he is a legitimate #3 guy regularly and getting key targets like yesterday. He will be a lot more involved in 2011 (I've stashed him in my auction keeper league for over a month now) even with Ward back. Other guys on this same "path" of increased role in the 2nd half this year that could see a nice increase in 2011 : A.Benn in Tampa, J.Ford, J.Graham (the ship may have already sailed to get him!), D.Butler (on a good path before injury). Also another flier is Plaxico Burress - said to be coming back for 2011 with a couple teams interested. Good upside for a final roster spot over the off-season to see what happens.mcintyre1 said:
Anybody get to watch the Indy/Jax game yesterday? I only saw a few game breaks but Donald Brown finally showed some signs of life. Is it just a few fluke long plays or was he running well even when there wasn't much there? Indy has to fight for the next two games to make the playoffs for the first time in a while, so hopefully more to come (especially since Oakland isn't good against the run?)
Edit: Peyton seems to love him and he has amazing production when on the field this year but where do we put Collie with his injuries (what 3 concussions now?)
Edit: Peyton seems to love him and he has amazing production when on the field this year but where do we put Collie with his injuries (what 3 concussions now?)
Last edited by a moderator:
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Looks right to me-Blount with 1 or 2 yards to go on 3rd or 4th down-plyka said:Not saying you are wrong, but do you actually have any facts to backup your statement that Blount is "very mediocre on short yardage/goallinge?" I understand the coaches made that comment, but I'm questioning the coach that made the comment. I would love to see the facts if you are privy to them, as in the actual numbers. What's his yards per carry average on 3rd/4th and less than 2, on the goalline, etc. If you're just repeating what you heard, i can understand that, but i just don't put much stock into it. Thanks.Blount has been very mediocre on short yardage/goal-line plays. It's easy to assume that because he's such a big body he should be great in short-yardage, but he seems to have trouble finding the hole and he takes a long time to get up to speed.I agree with those that think Blount is not the long-term answer for Tampa Bay. I just don't think he's versatile enough, or special enough at the things he is good at. I picked him up early this season when I thought he was flying under the radar, then sold a couple of weeks ago. I haven't regretted it at all. I'd put him in the late twenties or low thirties for dynasty backs (.5 PPR).I haven't seen much talk on this board regarding Leggarrate Blount. I've been a huge fan the entire year (yes, unfortunately i picked him up in like week 2 for all my teams, lol), but am having issues deciding what his value is in regards to other RBs and WRs. I need to decide whether I keep him or not as part of my 6 keepers at no cost for next year. I'll avoid making this an assistant coaching post, god forbid i have to deal with the AC police
The big problem I have with Blount is his coach. Did you see Norv Turner with Tolbert the other night? He gave him the ball for like 6 straight possessions inside the 10 yard line. Raheem Morris is the exact opposite. You have a 250 lb monster of a back, and the guy doesn't hand the ball off to Blount on the goal line. Instead he is running trick plays where his fullback is tossing TDs, lol. The last game i watched, on 2 different 3rd and 1s, this idiot calls a pass play, the first time for like 50 yards and the second for like 15 yards. I mean, c'mon. Of course they failed both and had to punt. They had the ball on a new set of downs inside the 10 and Blount wasn't even in the game (before half), the next time they had the ball on the 2 yard line give it to Blount 1 time and then start throwing. Sorry, long way of saying that i think Morris calls some really stupid plays. If you have the ball on the 5 yard line and in with 4 plays, here is how you get 98% of a TD --give the ball to Blount 4 times.
Anyway, where would you guys rate Blount? I personally rate him very highly. I would put him in the 15 RB range, higher than a RB like Forte and close to Deangelo. I don't think most agree. Compared to WRs, I'd place him in the Crabtree area, althoug in dynasty i like high talent WRs more, so I would probably rate Crabtree higher. any opinions?
6 rushes, 4 yards, 2 first downs, 1 td
So 2 out of 6 times successful= not good.
In the same circumstances, Cadillac has 8 rushes, 61 yards, 7 first downs.
(in NFL stats, touchdowns are counted as a 1st down)
Last edited by a moderator:
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Targets for the Steelers WRs since week 10:Wallace 48Sanders 38Ward 31I think the torch is already being passed here from Ward to Sanders. I don't think any of us know if Ward will retire after this season, but he very well could move into the WR3 role next season. Sanders ran a 4.41 coming out (tied for 2nd among WRs), and had a very good overall combine performance finishing 3rd in the short shuttle (4.10), 2nd in the three cone (6.6), 1st in the broad jump (10'6"), and 5th in the vertical jump (39.5). He's landed in a very good situation catching passes from Roethlisberger as well. The biggest knock on Sanders going into the draft was his size at 5'11" and 180lbs. When I watch him play though I don't see him as small. It looks to me that he's added some weight already. Regardless of that issue, I think he could very well be a fantasy starter as soon as next season.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Not sure either of these are true. If McD didn't think Hillis would fit into his scheme, then that's another bad decision for McD. NEP had decent success trotting FBs out there due to necessity. Hillis is a gazillion times better than Evans/Eckel.Foster didn't come out of nowhere. He was 1000 yard rusher at an SEC school. He had some "1st day" NFL buzz going into his senior year, and then had a bad senior year. He had buzz during camp his rookie year, but lost that luster when the team decided to practice squad him instead of putting him on the opening day roster. Other than Slaton, all the other RBs who made the team over him that year are now gone. Like out of football gone. So its curious why he didn't make the opening day roster last year - maybe they were just protecting him and would have tried to outbid any other team who also saw something there.Given The Chin listed Houston as one of his target destinations, it's really really time to think about how much you believe in him. If you do, this is the start to your trade proposal. If you don't, get value now.
What he said.Looks right to me-Blount with 1 or 2 yards to go on 3rd or 4th down-plyka said:Not saying you are wrong, but do you actually have any facts to backup your statement that Blount is "very mediocre on short yardage/goallinge?" I understand the coaches made that comment, but I'm questioning the coach that made the comment. I would love to see the facts if you are privy to them, as in the actual numbers. What's his yards per carry average on 3rd/4th and less than 2, on the goalline, etc. If you're just repeating what you heard, i can understand that, but i just don't put much stock into it. Thanks.Blount has been very mediocre on short yardage/goal-line plays. It's easy to assume that because he's such a big body he should be great in short-yardage, but he seems to have trouble finding the hole and he takes a long time to get up to speed.I agree with those that think Blount is not the long-term answer for Tampa Bay. I just don't think he's versatile enough, or special enough at the things he is good at. I picked him up early this season when I thought he was flying under the radar, then sold a couple of weeks ago. I haven't regretted it at all. I'd put him in the late twenties or low thirties for dynasty backs (.5 PPR).I haven't seen much talk on this board regarding Leggarrate Blount. I've been a huge fan the entire year (yes, unfortunately i picked him up in like week 2 for all my teams, lol), but am having issues deciding what his value is in regards to other RBs and WRs. I need to decide whether I keep him or not as part of my 6 keepers at no cost for next year. I'll avoid making this an assistant coaching post, god forbid i have to deal with the AC police
The big problem I have with Blount is his coach. Did you see Norv Turner with Tolbert the other night? He gave him the ball for like 6 straight possessions inside the 10 yard line. Raheem Morris is the exact opposite. You have a 250 lb monster of a back, and the guy doesn't hand the ball off to Blount on the goal line. Instead he is running trick plays where his fullback is tossing TDs, lol. The last game i watched, on 2 different 3rd and 1s, this idiot calls a pass play, the first time for like 50 yards and the second for like 15 yards. I mean, c'mon. Of course they failed both and had to punt. They had the ball on a new set of downs inside the 10 and Blount wasn't even in the game (before half), the next time they had the ball on the 2 yard line give it to Blount 1 time and then start throwing. Sorry, long way of saying that i think Morris calls some really stupid plays. If you have the ball on the 5 yard line and in with 4 plays, here is how you get 98% of a TD --give the ball to Blount 4 times.
Anyway, where would you guys rate Blount? I personally rate him very highly. I would put him in the 15 RB range, higher than a RB like Forte and close to Deangelo. I don't think most agree. Compared to WRs, I'd place him in the Crabtree area, althoug in dynasty i like high talent WRs more, so I would probably rate Crabtree higher. any opinions?
6 rushes, 4 yards, 2 first downs, 1 td
So 2 out of 6 times successful= not good.
In the same circumstances, Cadillac has 8 rushes, 61 yards, 7 first downs.
(in NFL stats, touchdowns are counted as a 1st down)
Concept Coop
Footballguy
As for Ray Rice, I don't think you are "missing" anything. I was watching the games at a sports bar, and only caught bits and pieces of his game. I will be watching the NFL Rewind, because he did have a monster game and I want to watch it, if only to appreciate and enjoy. The catch the he made in the endzone was a thing of beauty.As for Ray Rice and how talented he is, it is all relative. We can all throw that word around, coupled with elite, and it really does us no good. Me and Thrifty had quite a debate about Rice, only to realize that we have him ranked almost the exact same. He was more willing to use the term elite and talented than I was. So, to address your point, which is valid: we get it. Rice had a monster game, and it would do us no good to watch the tape and tell you otherwise or tell you why it was a fluke. I don't think anyone here suggested that he was not capable of big games, or was not a talented player. But like all things, we have to look at his ability to produce fantasy points moving forward (less subjective and better defined than "talent") in relation to others. Look at what Jamaal Charles did this week on 11 carries; look at what Arian Foster did week one; look at LeSean McCoy's best games, Adrian Peterson's best games, Chris Johnson's Best games, Peyton Hillis' best games - hell, even Matt Forte had two games this season close to what Rice did this week. You get my point. So, sure: you can look at this game and use it to tell you what Ray Rice is capable of doing on a good Sunday. But unless those that us "Rice doubters" value more, are less likely or less capable of scoring fantasy points moving forward, what does his game prove?And I don't know why you act as though Rice is performing as he did last year, with the exception of TDs. The stats show that is not the case. Before Sunday, he was averaging 3.9 YPC.Herm23 said:
az_prof
Footballguy
I think the variance in terms of evaluating Ray Rice has to do with whether you play PPR or not. Some players it makes a huge difference and he is one of them. In PPR he is sixth RB this year, which is a down year and clearly not his ceiling; he is 3 points ahead of Chris Johnson and just behind ADP. Last year he was #2 in PPR just behind Chris Johnson. In PPR, he is a stud and will continue to be. In TD heavy leagues he is an RB2. So, big difference. I think he could become more effective in TD heavy leagues because he is a capable red zone back, but his usage works against him.
az_prof
Footballguy
I would like to hear also as I couldn't watch the game. On the year his ypc is now 3.8. His yards per catch and his RAC are very high so I don't know why Peyton doesn't throw to him more.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Whether he can be successful on 3rd and short or not, we might not know this year. The past 2 games (since Raheem pointed out Blount's ineffectiveness in those situations) the staff hasn't given him any more chances.
This week:
5 opportunities for 3rd or 4th and 3 or less and only run was a QB sneak
10 of Blount's 15 carries were on 1st down
- smallest yards to go he got was 2nd and 4 (3 yards)
- no 3rd down carries
Last week was similar:
- 13 of 15 runs on 1st down
- 3rd and short was all passes with 1 QB sneak
So it looks like Raheem really is going away from him in those situations. Since that loss to DET put them fully out of contention, I assume they'll be less likely to give Freeman sneaks, and instead increase that sample size of "2 out of 6 times successful= not good".
This week:
5 opportunities for 3rd or 4th and 3 or less and only run was a QB sneak
10 of Blount's 15 carries were on 1st down
- smallest yards to go he got was 2nd and 4 (3 yards)
- no 3rd down carries
Last week was similar:
- 13 of 15 runs on 1st down
- 3rd and short was all passes with 1 QB sneak
So it looks like Raheem really is going away from him in those situations. Since that loss to DET put them fully out of contention, I assume they'll be less likely to give Freeman sneaks, and instead increase that sample size of "2 out of 6 times successful= not good".
Concept Coop
Footballguy
What top 15 running back does your statement NOT apply to? And what does "too talented" mean? More talented than the players producing more than him, who have also had big games? More talented than Peyton Hillis (why?), more talented than Michael Turner (why?), McCoy or Moreno? My point being, what value does the term "too talented" have, when there are 15 other players worthy of the title? Lastly, what does MJD's recent production have to do with Ray Rice? They are different players; Jones-Drew having a longer, more productive (Non-PPR) track record. Suggesting that one of Rice's seasons (one good, one great) is more indicative of his production moving forward than the other, is not the same as questioning MJD, who has yet to have a single digit TD season and gets the goal line carries in his offense.SSOG said:
duaneok66
Footballguy
Greg Cosell of NFL matchup thinks that Blount is a poor power runner for a guy his size . . . he says that Blount usually braces for contact instead of delivering the blow . . .
Last edited by a moderator:
I've said before that PPR vs. standard scoring is often the key underlying factor when debating certain players whose value is tied to a certain format (Ray Rice, Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson, Michael Turner etc.) and that it would be useful for people to mention the scoring system they are thinking of when talking about a player. Rice's value is dramtically different in a PPR league, so it's no wonder that people have very different opinions based on what scoring system they're used to.
Last edited by a moderator:
thehornet
Footballguy
Frank Gore had the touchdown problem early in his career too but he elite. Why are you calling Rice's 2010 season merely good? He is on pace to finish with 1840 total yards and 7 touchdowns. This is elite production. If you play PPR and count receptions then he is even better.
Last edited by a moderator:
Invictus~Bronte
Footballguy
There was nothing different about Brown. He still showed the same lack of vision and power, it's just the holes were a bit bigger and the Jags were the horrible DEF they have been all year, with bad tackling and losing gap discipline. Look what D-Mac and Bush did to them the week before.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't play PPR much and am not talking about his PPR Value.Frank Gore had 9 TDs and over 2,100 yards, averaging 5.4 YPC in his 2nd season.There is that word again: elite. What does it mean? This very well could have changed, but before this week's games, Ray Rice was not an RB1; RB2 production is not what I would call elite.
thehornet
Footballguy
is 1840 total yards and 7 touchdowns elite to you? Most backs dont do this in their best seasons. Elite play is elite production no matter how you get there. Sure his production is off from 2009. When it spkies again in 2011, we can continue to discuss what elite means to you.
geoff8695
Footballguy
I don't presume to speak for SSOG, but my interpretation of this has to do with elite talent/longevity/etc.What I mean is all NFL RBs are very talented and are capable of putting up a good season. However, there are a handful of ELITE or STUD backs that are capable of putting up the kind of numbers that will win you championships, and are capable of doing so when confronted with poor situations, or when they are banged up, and are able to give you multiple seasons of winning production despite obstacles that would be insurmountable to average NFL talent. They are the creme de la creme of fantasy RBs. CJ2K, MJD, AP, Rice, Etc.On the other hand you have the Ryan Grants, Marion Barbers, Shonn Greenes, Pierre Thomas, Cedric Bensons's of the world who can give you solid RB production at some point in their careers, but aren't going to consistently give you several opportunities at such production, and don't have the additional level of talent that allows them to still produce such numbers in bad circumstances such as poor surrounding talent or being nicked up with nagging injuries.MJD is similar to Ray Rice in that both are actually fantastic receiving options who get a boost in PPR (although MJD's ability to rack up TDs makes him a top non-PPR back as well), and both are well rounded diminutive power rushers with enough shake and bake and speed to go the distance anytime they get into the 2nd level of the defense. Despite the fact that MJD's nose for the endzone protects him from losing much value, if you believe in Rice's all around ability as being above NFL average, then I believe SSOG is saying that Rice belongs in the handful of ELITE RBs category that MJD resides in, and that you shouldn't panic if Rice runs into a difficult stretch of games. In the end the cream will still rise to the top, and Rice's value isn't going to evaporate the way that an average NFL RB's value is prone to do.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
You are painting a picture with only two vague mediums: elite and average. Nobody is calling Rice average. I think he is great. I don't think he is a top 5-7 dynasty back, which was the original statement that GD made, to spark the conversation. I would like to stay way from using the term elite, because it means different things to everyone and arguing it, gets us nowhere.Lets simply use "top 5-7 dynasty back", for the sake of conversation, to ensure that we are all talking about the same thing. With that said:You insert Rice with the likes of CJ, ADP and MJD. All 3 of those guys outscored Rice last season, all 3 of those guys have done it for more than one season, all 3 of those guys get goal line carries, all 3 of those guys are a clear tier ahead of Ray Rice, in my opinion or rankings. Along with Foster and Charles (both slightly behind the top 3, which I feel comfortable calling elite) you have my top 5. Rice does not make that cut for me. Let me ask you this, do the statements you use to claim Ray Rice is elite, not also apply to Moreno, Charles, McCoy, McFadden, Turner, Bradshaw, Hillis and a few others?
Last edited by a moderator:
100% agree. A friend of mine and I were watching the game and both commented that if we were Donald Brown owners, we'd be falling all over ourselves to sell after a good statistical performance. He looked like a very mediocre NFL back. I thought Dominic Rhodes looked better.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Turner is no longer elite. Hillis, Moreno, and Bradshaw are not elite. Ray Rice is a much better fantasy asset than those 4. It would take multiple firsts in order to pry Rice from me if you are just offering Moreno or Bradshaw. I would add a 1st or more to those guys in order to upgrade to Rice. There is a clear tier differentiation there, at least for me. That tier includes guys like LSMC and DMC as well. I'd argue saying "top 5-7" is also flawed because there's no number you can stop at. There's a top tier of 8 QBs and 5 WRs for me right now with a big difference between them and the lower tier. The top 2 tiers of RBs for me is 8 names right now with a big difference after that. Rice is on that short list.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Now that I've unloaded Jay "Stop hitting me, I'm a diabetic" Cutler for Ryan Torain and a pick, I'm suddenly more interested in talking about Torain.
Most comments I've read on him call him slow. When I see him run, I don't necessarily agree. He is by no means "fast" like a CJ, McFadden, or even Mendenhall on a good day, but I don't think he is any slower than Peyton Hillis. He lacks dynamic moves and tremendous power, but he appears to have pretty good vision, making plays despite his lack of stellar physical ability. On top of this, Shanahan appears to be making him the feature back for the team, giving him receptions where Keiland Williams usually would have gotten them before.
In the end, I view him as a situational guy, who has the chance to put up pretty big numbers (season long ~1100-1200 yards, 8 or so TDs) so long as his current playing situation remains the same. I don't see Portis returning next year, and there is danger of replacements in the coaching staff.
Most comments I've read on him call him slow. When I see him run, I don't necessarily agree. He is by no means "fast" like a CJ, McFadden, or even Mendenhall on a good day, but I don't think he is any slower than Peyton Hillis. He lacks dynamic moves and tremendous power, but he appears to have pretty good vision, making plays despite his lack of stellar physical ability. On top of this, Shanahan appears to be making him the feature back for the team, giving him receptions where Keiland Williams usually would have gotten them before.
In the end, I view him as a situational guy, who has the chance to put up pretty big numbers (season long ~1100-1200 yards, 8 or so TDs) so long as his current playing situation remains the same. I don't see Portis returning next year, and there is danger of replacements in the coaching staff.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
He's 0.077 points per game from going from 13th to 12th. In the last 11 weeks (after a slow four week start), he's 5th in points per game. He's an elite RB producing elite stats.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Help me understand how Knowshon is not in that tier, when he is scoring as much as McCoy, more than Rice (per game), has the pedigree, and is about the same age. McCoy and Moreno are both scoring more than Rice, and both get more touchdowns. As for Bradshaw and Hillis, I would agree that Rice is a better fantasy option. But in using their names, I am saying that I don't think there is the gap between Rice and the next 4-5, that you feel exists. Both scoring as much or more than Rice, both young, both getting goal line carries. I worry about them breaking down, and neither of them have the track record (by one season), but they are both capable of matching Rice's numbers.
thehornet
Footballguy
you're not even debating anymore, it's just arguing now. rice is in another class than moreno. You know it too.eta: meant moreno
Last edited by a moderator:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Are you sure about that? I can't access MFL from work (or ESPN, or Yahoo...). But are you going by total, or average? Because total will ignore bye weeks, and games missed due to injury.
Last edited by a moderator:
duaneok66
Footballguy
the terms "great" and "elite" are vastly overused terms in fantasy football . . . and in sports in general I might add . . .
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Points Per Game
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Going to try not to repeat the same arguments on Rice. You still don't believe in him, I still do. You want to question having 1 elite year. I count it as a higher level of pedigree than draft round and combine performance. Even without yesterdays performance Rice is slightly better than Moreno on DVOA, DYAR, and success rate. At this point Moreno's good year is about the same as Rice's "down" year. I've never seen Moreno dominate a game like Rice did yesterday. Or like McCoy and McF have done recently. He's had a very good year - low RB1 in PPG. He has red flags like the fade down the stretch last year, the pending change in offense (possibly becoming a low scoring bad team instead of a high scoring one), etc. I haven't been very impressed with him since he entered the NFL - other than cashing in on TDs. That could turn around given Studeville's history with RBs, but at this point I'd trust his NFL track record more than his draft position and pedigree.
I love it, Rice has a big game and then everyone says, "see, i told you Rice was elite". I never doubted Rice was a talented player when i brought his name up in this thread. I simply stated he might not be as good as his last years numbers suggested, and he doesnt belong in the top tier. I still think he is a top 10 RB(in talent and dynasty rankings), but he is averaging 4 yards per carry and hasnt scored more than 7 TD's in a season. He is the #12 RB in my dynasty leagues(non-ppr), and has needed 325 touches to get there. That wouldnt be a problem except i doubt he sees 350+ touches every year.
Last edited by a moderator:
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Torain runs ugly. He's a mule. But he's been the most effective runner they've had. And Shanny has been loyal to him. My guess right now is the only competition they'll bring in is low round picks and UFAs because the defense has been poor and they now need a QBOTF. But in Shanahan world, that's still decent competition you can't take lightly. Has more value for me than similar guys like Tolbert and Hightower, but I'd much rather have Blount or Choice due to the combo of fickle coaches and injury history.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
We both have Rice around #8, with the same 7 ahead of him. We just disagree on how much more valuable #8 is in comparison to the next 3 or 4 (i.e. Moreno). I have been impressed with Moreno this year. His numbers are down due to him leaving the game early yesterday, but he was putting up the same as McCoy, solid RB1 numbers. Even aside from the blanket numbers, I have been impressed by what I have seen from him on the field. He is a natural, instinctive runner and he his power is deceptive. But, to avoid repeating arguments, I just have a little less faith in Rice and a little more faith in the few that follow than you.this makes me just lololololololololhttp://gamerewind.nfl.com/nflgr/game?id=54...R_Free_Clip_nfl (the end in particular)
http://gamerewind.nfl.com/nflgr/game?id=54...R_Free_Clip_nfl
http://gamerewind.nfl.com/nflgr/game?id=54...R_Free_Clip_nfl (just runs right thru nail diggs)
http://gamerewind.nfl.com/nflgr/game?id=55...R_Free_Clip_nfl (runs over the safety)
http://gamerewind.nfl.com/nflgr/game?id=55...R_Free_Clip_nfl
http://gamerewind.nfl.com/nflgr/game?id=55...R_Free_Clip_nfl (arm tackles lol)
http://gamerewind.nfl.com/nflgr/game?id=55...R_Free_Clip_nfl (dbs dont stand a chance)
http://gamerewind.nfl.com/nflgr/game?id=55...R_Free_Clip_nfl (runs right thru tacklers)
http://gamerewind.nfl.com/nflgr/game?id=55...R_Free_Clip_nfl (again just runs right thru tacklers)
http://gamerewind.nfl.com/nflgr/game?id=55...R_Free_Clip_nfl (i dunno, sure seems powerful)
but hey, im not talent evaluator.
it sounds like the staff has a new complaint.
sucks at short yardage and cant hold onto the football. i like watching the guy and he seems effective but im coming around that his future prospects arent looking good as its pretty clear the coaching staff doesnt believe in him.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Good take, I pretty much agree all around. Shanny is impossible to predict, but if you can roster his workhorse (if he decides to have one), you can usually get very good value. I would also rather have Blount or Choice for the reasons you posted.What are people's takes on the chances Shanny doesn't return next year? I know the Redskins have been disappointing this year, but I feel like he is set there for at least another year. Torain's value is heavily tied to Shanny.
thehornet
Footballguy
But if McGahee is gone next year and he gets goal line carries then he wont even need 300 touches to be top 5. he could be top 5 with 270 touches.Not to mention, most of us pro-ricers (at least i can speak for myself) were saying he was elite before this game.
Last edited by a moderator:
