Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
He is tough to upgrade to more than 1 year wonder because we multiple years of him making a couple of silly "did he really just make that catch" moments, but seemingly no ability to just run a 12 yard out and catch the ball. he has done both this year, but how much can you trust 1 year over several? probably a guy that i will try to get at the right price, but not a guy I believe in.
I am not reay to jump back on the Forte bandwagon, just yet. But I can safely say that I didn't "sell high" when I included him in a package around week 6 - starting to regret it a bit. I think a lot of his problems had to do with the offense. Now that Cutler is playing better and the Bears are running the ball more, he has been an RB1. He is only in his 3rd year, is still young, and plays in an offense with solid potential that could last for some time. Every double digit point week moves me a bit closer to the bandwagon. I still worry about his ability to break tackles and move the pile, but, quite frankly, he is getting the job done. I don't see Chicago looking for a upgrade anytime soon.On the flip side, Mendenhall is slipping down my mental rankings. Like you have said, he is not a clear tier above the likes of Forte, like was the thought when his ADP was around 5-6(RB) this past year.Go deep said:
The trouble is figuring out whether this was a "breakout" or a "one year wonder" because of situation, coaching, etc. As you said, he's been one of the most teasing players over the past 5-6 years - flashes glimpses but regularly disappoints... until this year. He's one of those guys that I don't think has much of a market. His upside, if he sticks, is great - and people selling need to recoup that upside in his price (particularly since they likely didn't pay much for him initially). His downside is equally great - and people buying want that risk built into the price. A classic "hold" rating, unless you can find a buyer/seller willing to overpay/undervalue him.coolnerd said:
Coach Rah has made it clear on his radio shows that ball security and hitting the assigned hole are his two main weaknesses - he called him out pretty badly on last weeks' show. He specifically mentioned the reason EG got the goalline looks was because Blount dances instead of hitting the assigned hole and Caddy got the late game carries because of ball security. Both are curable, though.He runs with authority and is amazingly agile for a 250lb guy (see some of his highlight leaps over defenders this year, including this week). His maturity has always been the question mark, and his major game flaws fall into the same category. If he takes well to off-season coaching and puts in the work, I think he could be a solid guy. He's not a ball-catcher and he doesn't seem to have any instincts to get open when in space, so he won't have any added value in PPR league.
Forte is a better RB than most give him credit for. He plays behind a poor offensive line, and last year he suffered leg/knee injuries but toughed it out and played through the injuries. That's why you didn't see him breaking tackles or using his quickness/speed to break off long runs last season. This year he's healthy and is doing both when the front seven of the defense isn't meeting him at the QB for the handoff. This offense and Forte's opportunities should only get better moving forward as Cutler and the offense continue to grow and improvements are made to the o-line.I honestly would take him over Mendenhall in any format, although I know that won't be a popular point of view...
Forte is a classic example of overreaction in both directions. After his rookie year, a number of us (myself and EBF especially) cautioned that we shouldn't value him as top 5 RB because, even though he had the numbers, a lot of it was situation. Now we're seeing an overreaction in the other direction. Let's be clear - Forte is not a "bad" or "terrible" back, but he's also not a "special" back.Forte is an above average to good NFL running back (and perhaps you might say a very good receiver). In a good situation, that means he will put up good or very good numbers. He can also be replaced if a special back comes by (see Chester Taylor a few years ago). And unlike a guy like Charles or CJ3 etc, he is unlikely to put up RB1 numbers if he doesn't have a full load.I haven't done my offseason rankings yet, but I suspect he'll probably fall in the mid-teens (low-end RB1 for most of my 16 team leagues).
I don't think he will ever be a RB, first of all. He is not Jamaal Charles. He did play SOME RB in college, but that was never his primary role. He is a WR who can do things with the ball in his hands, in space, however you get it there. But there are only so many ways to get a RB in space, without him having to create it (i.e. between the tackles). As for his migraines, I wouldn't plan on them ever stopping. I am not sure about high school (or prior) but he had them at Florida. I think he will always be on the injury report, making him a luxury, but not someone to count on every week. He was injury prone at Florida for three years, and in the NFL for two - it's a trend.
I am definitely a believer, but most of this board doesn't seem too high on the guy. His biggest drawback is the coaching on the bucs in my opinion. They claim he is bar in short yardage and never really give the guy a chance. Even yesterday, blount had 163 yards, but no tds. Countless times they gwen the ball in goalline situations and refuse to give blount the work. They deem passing the better option. Against a garbage team like the seahawks, it'll work, but as we have seen over the lqst month, against hood teams, not so much. Even his work load is anemic. The guy has 163 yards, you're up be 30 points and be only gets 15 carries? It's a huge question mark for me. In my keeper where we keep 6 at no cost, I'm forced to make a decision between blount, forte and Crabtree for the last spot. Not sure what I'm going to do.
He actually had more touches as an RB than as a receiver (194-133) as these stats show http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/player...y-harvin-1.html.
I watched Harvin closely throughout his career, being a Gator fan. That stat is incredibly misleading, if you use in the fashion that we are. Harvin was a wide receiver. He got a lot of action in the option, on reverses, and so on. But unlike Charles, even in college, Harvin rarely got carries between the tackles, in a traditional set. Even in the spread, Florida is using Demps and Rainey (smaller than Harvin) a lot on dive plays, right up the middle. They never did that with Harvin because it wasn't his game. He is not as compact as Demps and Rainey, and not as quick or balanced in short spaces. Especially in the NFL, Harvin needs space. So I guess I am saying Minny could expand in their use of Harvin, as you have suggested. But expecting him to be a Charles-like RB in the NFL is out there, based on my opinion and perception of what Harvin is. I think they use Harvin pretty close to ideally, honestly. Whether they should use him more is another thing all together. But I like the way they used him so far.
Week 16 update:Rivers - 22.2 ppgRoethlisberger - 20.7 ppgNot sure what to expect from Rivers and the Chargers this week. I'm sure Rivers will start, but how much will he play, given they are out of the playoffs? I wouldn't be surprised to see him pulled early, especially given what happened to Brees in a meaningless week 17 Chargers game a few years back.Week 14 update:Rivers - 22.7 ppgRoethlisberger - 20.9 ppgWeek 11 update:Rivers - 24.5 ppgRoethlisberger - 22.9 ppgWeek 9 update:Rivers - 24.2 ppgRoethlisberger - 17.2 ppgWeek 6 updatehilip Rivers- 24.25 ppgBen Roeth- 24.4 ppg
To answer your last question: Yes. Larry will still have elite tools by the time Arizona finds a QB. Steve Smith did fine with Matt Moore, Larry did okay with Derek Anderson, Santana Moss has had solid years with average QB play, and look at what Calvin does with Hill. In short, Arizona doesn't need to find a long term answer at QB for Larry to be a long term WR1 in the fantasy world. They just need more than Hall/Skelton/Anderson. I would be shocked if they didn't find that this off-season. Second, while Larry being 28 is a valid reason to move him out of tier 1, it is not a valid reason to treat him as old, as you would a 28 year old running back. Not only are WRs lasting well into their 30s, I think Larry, especially, is built to have a long career. Wide receivers with elite talent, like Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, seem to be able to lose a step and still dominate. As far as where Larry ranks, I agree that it is time to question the top 5 rankings of him, as taboo as it is. There are players like Andre Johnson and Roddy White who are safer bets to be more productive over the next 3 years, due to quarterback play, and the weapons around them. Then there is the group who have a case over Larry due to age: DeSean, Hakeem, Dez, Miles, Calvin.
I thought it would be interesting to revisit SSOG's assertion that, along with his dynasty ranking of Roethlisberger higher than Rivers, led to our bet.SSOG himself has stated that he thinks Rivers is more talented than Roethlisberger. I would add that Rivers has proven to be more durable and to have a much better knucklehead factor. With regard to SSOG's post quoted here, Rivers showed this year that he can do quite well with a "worse remaining" receiver corps. I also think any notion that Rivers is not the centerpiece of Norv's offense has been effectively refuted.Going forward, Rivers is in his prime, and Norv is going nowhere, so the offense will not change. With Jackson, Floyd, Naanee, Tolbert (RFA), and Sproles all free agents, the skill players around Rivers could be quite a bit different than they were this year. But this year Rivers completed a pass to 17 different receivers and completed a TD pass to 11 different receivers... and he has thrown for ~4400/30 and counting despite revolving doors WR and TE. IMO the skill players around him can only improve from what he experienced this season.Also, have I mentioned how much I absolutely hate SSOG's repeated use of "Roofles" to refer to Roethlisberger?
I see that SSOG currently has Rivers #3 and Roethlisberger #7 in his dynasty rankings, so he has apparently come around this season. Is anyone here willing to try to make a case that Roethlisberger should be viewed as a stronger dynasty value than Rivers?
There is no case to be made. I think the Steelers have been throwing the ball more than they would like to, even still. I think that if the offensive line allowed Mendenhall to eat up more clock, he would be asked to do so. Big Ben is getting by off of one top 3 finish and I don't count on that happening year in, year out. The distance between Big Ben and the elite is big. The distance between Big Ben and the lower end QB1s, is exaggerated. I don't think Big Ben is any more likely to finish top 5, any given season, than the likes of Matt Schaub.I agree with this. In my dynasty rankings I have my #2QB Rivers 14 points higher than my #5QB Big Ben, and Big Ben only 9 points higher that my #16QB Josh Freeman.There is no case to be made. I think the Steelers have been throwing the ball more than they would like to, even still. I think that if the offensive line allowed Mendenhall to eat up more clock, he would be asked to do so. Big Ben is getting by off of one top 3 finish and I don't count on that happening year in, year out. The distance between Big Ben and the elite is big. The distance between Big Ben and the lower end QB1s, is exaggerated. I don't think Big Ben is any more likely to finish top 5, any given season, than the likes of Matt Schaub.
I wasnt suggessting Fitzgerald is in for a big drop, but like you said, i dont think he should be in the top tier anymore. Unless they bring in an established vet like Mcnabb in the offseason, i dont think his QB situation will get much better in the near future. If the Cards decide to bring in or keep a young QB to groom, Fitzgeralds dynasty value might be in for an even bigger hit than out of the top 5.When i ask if Fitz will still have elite phyiscal skills as he hits 30, i meant as elite as they are now. I guess my concern is the Cardinals wont have a decent Qb situation until Fitz has lost a step. Sure, he will still have elite skills, but not the same as he did when he was putting up 1400 yards and 14 TD's.
I agree with your Fitz concerns. I also think you need to consider that same issue with your Rice, Harvin and Britt rankings. Now each of them are young and still have all of their top years in front of them, but how many of their good yrs could be wasted due to their tema QB situation?
Not sure what Ben needs to do to gain respect. Since week 6 of this year he is 4th in fantasy points scored for passing behind Brady, Vick, and Rodgers...trailing Rodgers by less than a point.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/d...att%2Brsh%2BrecI agree with this. In my dynasty rankings I have my #2QB Rivers 14 points higher than my #5QB Big Ben, and Big Ben only 9 points higher that my #16QB Josh Freeman.There is no case to be made. I think the Steelers have been throwing the ball more than they would like to, even still. I think that if the offensive line allowed Mendenhall to eat up more clock, he would be asked to do so. Big Ben is getting by off of one top 3 finish and I don't count on that happening year in, year out. The distance between Big Ben and the elite is big. The distance between Big Ben and the lower end QB1s, is exaggerated. I don't think Big Ben is any more likely to finish top 5, any given season, than the likes of Matt Schaub.
I would have Rice in the top 5-6 if not for the QB situation, plus as much as i dislike TJackson, i think he is good enough for Rice to have some top 10-15 finishes until they find someone better. Plus i think the Vikings are still in a win now mode, unlike the Cardinals, so they will have a bigger urgency to find a suitable QB. As for Britt, he is only 22, so he has 7-8 years of his prime left, and Collins will likely be back for one more season. Maybe not the best QB situation, but not as bad as the Cardinals. Plus the Titans have a great run game to take pressure of the passing game, the same can not be said about Arizona.
For years I have seen people harp on the concept that talent counts more than situation in Dynasty leagues and while it is true in theory, it doesn't always work out that way in practice. Fate, circumstances, luck (whatever) can constantly intervene and the truth is that some players with talent never find themselves in the ideal situation to utilize it. It may be that from this point forward the situation won't get any better for Fitzgerald. Despite what some were predicting before the season started, it turns out the QB situation did negatively impact his fantasy numbers. And while the Cards should eventually get a real QB, there is no guarantee of that. And if they do, will Fitzgerald still be on the team or might he find himself in a worse situation? Plus maybe the worse case scenario happens that they bring in a franchise QB and the unthinkable happens and he has an ACL injury.
Talk about twisting stats. Why start at week 6? Most QB's had their bye in those weeks, and Ben had his in week 5. Big Ben in the 10th ranked QB since week 5, and since week 6 he is the 14th ranked QB in PPG.Not sure what Ben needs to do to gain respect. Since week 6 of this year he is 4th in fantasy points scored for passing behind Brady, Vick, and Rodgers...trailing Rodgers by less than a point.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/d...att%2Brsh%2BrecI agree with this. In my dynasty rankings I have my #2QB Rivers 14 points higher than my #5QB Big Ben, and Big Ben only 9 points higher that my #16QB Josh Freeman.
Your right, anything can happen in the future, thats why talent is the most important thinhg because it always exsists. Im sure if i played in money dynasty leagues i would look at the short term more too. Money changes the the way people play dynasty leagues because nobody will rebuild if their team is bad, they just quit and find a new league. Which is one of the reasons i dont play in money dynasty leagues anymore.
Bad technique on my part. I was just trying to compare his passing performance straight up with all others since his return. I see the folly in that since it is foolish to discount the other qbs performances leading to that point while also penalizing those who may have missed games since week 6.Talk about twisting stats. Why start at week 6? Most QB's had their bye in those weeks, and Ben had his in week 5. Big Ben in the 10th ranked QB since week 5, and since week 6 he is the 14th ranked QB in PPG.Not sure what Ben needs to do to gain respect. Since week 6 of this year he is 4th in fantasy points scored for passing behind Brady, Vick, and Rodgers...trailing Rodgers by less than a point.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/d...att%2Brsh%2BrecI agree with this. In my dynasty rankings I have my #2QB Rivers 14 points higher than my #5QB Big Ben, and Big Ben only 9 points higher that my #16QB Josh Freeman.There is no case to be made. I think the Steelers have been throwing the ball more than they would like to, even still. I think that if the offensive line allowed Mendenhall to eat up more clock, he would be asked to do so. Big Ben is getting by off of one top 3 finish and I don't count on that happening year in, year out. The distance between Big Ben and the elite is big. The distance between Big Ben and the lower end QB1s, is exaggerated. I don't think Big Ben is any more likely to finish top 5, any given season, than the likes of Matt Schaub.
I would feel better about Ben if he put up these numbers for another team. When the Steelers have been at their best, they have run the ball and controlled the clock. I think they want to and eventually will do more of that.Not sure what Ben needs to do to gain respect. Since week 6 of this year he is 4th in fantasy points scored for passing behind Brady, Vick, and Rodgers...trailing Rodgers by less than a point.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/d...att%2Brsh%2BrecI agree with this. In my dynasty rankings I have my #2QB Rivers 14 points higher than my #5QB Big Ben, and Big Ben only 9 points higher that my #16QB Josh Freeman.
Im sure there are leagues out there like that, but none i have played in or seen. I would think in order to have that happen, it would have to be amongst friends you know personally like you said. Why would this year or next year be any more important than a season 5 years from now...unless the person is worried the league wont be around in 5 years?
"Fitzgerald will be 28 by the start of next year," well, he'll also be 28 long after the FINISH of next season. Right now he is 27.5 years old, by the end of next season he will be 28.5 years old. As a comparison, Andre Johnson is more than 2 years older than Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne is currently 5 years older than Fitzgerald, and I could go on and on. I disagree that a WR sees his peak by age 30, the peak of a WR can stretch all the way to 32 or older. Fitz has a good 5 years left of peak form, at least, of course barring injuries. He is well known for his work ethic and workout routines.In dynasty a players value should fall on a pro-rated scale as they approach the end of their peak form. It doesn't just start at 28 or 29. A player at 25 should have more value than one at 26, assuming everything else is even. That's why I don't agree with this "sell a player 2-3 years from the end of his peak" rationale. It doesn't make much sense to me since a players value should fall proportionately throughout their career, not all of a sudden (if we are talking about depreciation due to just age).It's time to purchase Fitz in my book, not sell him.
I can't imagine playing fantasy football in anything but money leagues. That's what makes it fun. And i would think it is the opposite, you usually have more people quit leagues where money is not involved, because in money leagues everyone puts more importance on the league and you're usually in the league with friends or close relations. But, to each his own of course.
I never suggested selling him. I own him in two of my 5 dynasty leagues, and would even think of trading him right now, unless i got top 5 WR value, which i highly doubt i would. I also wouldnt buy him because anyone else who owns him probably feels the same way. Im sure Fitz will still be an elite talent when he is 32, i just dont think he will be as elite. I know WR's can play well into their 30's, but how many have their best seasons in their 30's? Like i said, im just afraid the Cardinals will be in rebuild mode over the next couple years, essentially wasting Fitzgeralds best seasons left.
I agree that a win years from now is just good as a win this season...the goal in dynasty should be to win this year and in 5 years. My goal is to build a team with depth of youth with upside, and enough vets to win this year.
Monsy isnt what makes it fun for me. Whats 50 or 100 bucks a year. I could make 100 times that for the amount of time i spend with my dynasty teams. Actually if it takes money for my leaguemates to think its interesting, i dont want them as my leaguemates. Money isnt going to keep guys commited year after year, it is the love of the game and the time spent building their team for years.Like you said though, each to their own.
Talk about twisting stats. Why start at week 6? Most QB's had their bye in those weeks, and Ben had his in week 5. Big Ben in the 10th ranked QB since week 5, and since week 6 he is the 14th ranked QB in PPG.Not sure what Ben needs to do to gain respect. Since week 6 of this year he is 4th in fantasy points scored for passing behind Brady, Vick, and Rodgers...trailing Rodgers by less than a point.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/d...att%2Brsh%2BrecI agree with this. In my dynasty rankings I have my #2QB Rivers 14 points higher than my #5QB Big Ben, and Big Ben only 9 points higher that my #16QB Josh Freeman.
Not really true from my experience. One league I have been in since 2003 (with EBF & Team Legacy) has 17 of 24 original owners (the league has two 12 teams conferences). Another league, Fantasy Legends II (with JohnnyU) started in 2004 has 6 of 12 original owners. In both leagues, there has been no problem finding replacements for owners with terrible teams who leave - there seems to be always someone out there who likes the challenge of rebuilding (although sometimes it may require an added incentive like an extra draft pick or reduced dues for the first year).I myself, will take over a doormat team if it has at least 3-4 developmental players I like and the future draft picks haven't been traded away. It doesn't take that long to rebuild a team as long the waiver wire is not blind bidding (blind bidding will increase the rebuilding process from 2-3 years to about 3-5).
Why do you need vets to win this year though? Couldnt i win with a lineup of Rodgers, Jones-Drew, Mcfadden, Calvin, Bowe, Britt, Finley, etc.? Im a recycler, i try to never get stuck with a guy when he starts to lose his value. Sure, sometimes it backfires and i trade a guy too early, but i would rather that than get stuck with a guy when he has no value left. You will hardy even find a RB that is 28 or older on my team, or a WR that is older than 31. I trade alot, and i cant remember the last time i made a trade that made my team older.
I agree with most of your thinking until that point. A players real value doesn't rise and fall proprtionately, due to some players just falling off a cliff at a certain age...Additionally a players perceived value (trade value)...right or wrong does drop of considerably at a certain age.
I said "enough vets"...if I don't need them to win, I don't want them, due to declining value. You and I think a lot alike on this point. I would almost never make a trade that made my team older, but I might keep a player that is a "vet" if I needed him to win this year. Over time though, the recycle strat will continue to build a stronger deeper team, which is why it is the strategy I use...that said...I want to win this year too and won't be too narrow in my thinking, provided my team is deep enough with young talent, that I can deal with the value loss of a productive vet.
Um, because it is easier to predict what is going to happen next year than in 5 years. Unless you have psychic abilities that the rest of us don't, the further one projects into the future, the harder it is to be accurate. Do you honestly think you can predict what will happen in 2015 better than I (or anyone) can predict what will happen in 2011? That is the flaw in the logic of I will just draft the best talent, then sit back, and be a champion in 2015, because by the time 2015 rolls around it probably won't be what you anticipated.And I don't know about you, but I can't absolutely guarantee that I will be here in 2015 (let alone any fantasy league). I am good health, I should be, but I knew some people that felt the same 5 years ago that are now six feet under. But as you noted, to each his own and I am more pragmatic in my thinking and live more in the present than most people - perhaps not the best way to go, but that is how my mind works.
I think the first part of your post is the most important: the best time to trade someone is when their perceived value is higher than their actual value. Obviously these things are tough to determine, especially "real value." I agree with you, you won't get a fair return on a trade. But I do think that non-fitz owners can get a good deal on him. I think his perceived value is lower than his actual value. Obviously no one will give him away for free, but I could see a Frank Gore for Fitz trade, and I would much much much rather have Fitz (not even close).
You got the wrong impression of what I was saying. No one plays fantasy to make money, lol. You could make 100 times by flipping burgers at Mcdonalds. But money does make it far more exciting, and it is a simple reality that when money is involved everyone in the league takes it much more seriously...but this is off topic and all, so like i said in the first post, to each his own.
Of course i want to win this year as well. You dont need to accurately predict the future to give yourself better odds in the future. I dont know that Larry Fitzgerald will be healthy and playing 5 years from now, but based on his talent i feel his chances are better that a guy that i believe is less talented and might be producing due to situation. There is the reason i started building my dynasty teams around WR's over the last several years after being a RB hoarder early in my dynasty career. I feel much better with a young WR still being around, healthy and productive 5 years from now than do i RB's.
I very much agree with you regarding building a team through WW. To tell you the truth, my drafts aren't usually very good, but I'm always on top of the WW (talking about redrafts). Of course the WW is more baren in dynasty, but still, as long as the WW is available and free, then you can build a team in very short time.
I dont agree with this, dynasty football is as interesting as the people playing. If it takes money to make it interesting to people, thats not the kind of guy i am looking to play with. Most peoples time they spend on FF is worth more than money. I am currenty in 3 championship games that are still up in the air. I have found myslef more concerned about the free dynasty league result than the other two that will result in me winning money. Im not saying playing for money is wrong, as long s the money isnt the motivation.
there's like a War and Peace sized thread on Alexander, and it's probably on the first page . . .
