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I don't see how Harvin can be a tier ahead of Rice. Does that make sense? Both are injury risks but I believe Rice is slightly younger (not positive, don't have access to look it up from work, only access to certain sites that aren't blocked) and has more upside than Harvin imo.
Harvin's 23 in May whereas Rice already turned 24 in September. I think it's obvious how Harvin is higher than Rice if you look at their production the last 2 years. Harvin's versatility means he can get it done even with Joe Webb, and just b/c they both have injury woes, Rice's worries are to a higher degree in that dept.
As the owner of #3,5&6 I'm a happy man.
His injuries scare a lot of people.
He is low -- by design. It's just a matter of preference. I won't quibble with Colston's production or his ability to excel despite constant injuries. I just don't like my nucleus players to average a knee surgery per year.I don't see the comparison to Ward at all. They're night and day as receivers.
I guess. I see Colston as a pretty damn consistent 1000/8/80 type WR that is valued well below that production level. He also is one of the few guys in the WR2 tier that can be counted on to provide multiple big games. The injury thing is just something that has to be dealt with for most any players. I just have a different WR philosophy than most I guess. I see guys year in and year out having big year, getting pumped up and evaporating. Edwards, Hoosh, Smith, Austin and so on. Seems like every year someone flashes big and flames out and it costs a huge pick as a result. Guys like Colston you can take super late and get good value. There aren't that many WR like that now.Fear & Loathing said:
Most any players don't have a handful of knee surgeries, including microfracture. I'm less interested in past performance and more interested in future performance. Colston's knees give me the creeps. I can't think of another receiver in NFL history with an injury history like his.
What do you think this does to Danario's upside? A 41 ranking for him isn't super high, but it's high. I generally agree and am trying to buy low on Danario. But let's say he has a breakthrough year in 2011 - the risk of continued success is still substantial.
I'm intrigued by his upside, but I realize his floor is awfully low, too, because of the knee surgeries. Philosophically, I'd rather have a guy who has some chance to be a difference-maker -- even if it's only for 6 or 8 games a year -- versus a low upside WR3 type. I don't think his hit rate is particularly high, but if he does hit he could pay off in a big way.
F&L posted TE Rankings over the weekend. Has him ranked #16 sandwiched between the boring vet pair of Cooley and Winslow and below Cook, Pettigrew, Marcedes Lewis, and Keller. He says:
I think that's a little low. Maybe you could argue a lot of Cincy's pass offense overall came in garbage time, but I don't know the specific stats he's going off of. 52/471/4 for a rookie TE would be exciting most years, only issue is 3 other guys had similar breakout first years last year. Otherwise he'd have much more cache. I think it's a pick em between him and Cook, Pettigrew, Lewis and Keller, and I think he has a higher floor than all of them except maybe Keller, and as high a ceiling.
I would add that if the Eagles draft or sign a RT (8 out of 10 mock drafts have them getting Gabe Carimi of Wisconsin), it's going to open up Celek a lot more. Vick is of course left handed, and the Eagles had to help out a lot to cover the below par RTs they had when the switched.
I don't know, when a guy like Palmer says publically that he will retire if he's not traded, I take that very seriously. He's not taken a public stand in prior years, and in fact chided 85 when he did. So, I would not give strong consideration to Palmer. In any event, I don't think Palmer has ever used a TE as extensively as other QBs. So, it actually could help Gresham if a younger QB leads that team; my completely unfounded belief is younger QBs target TEs more frequently when their 1st read fizzles.
Agreed with most of this, except that I think the lack of TE-use was more due to the offense, and the lack of a good TE on that team, rather than due to Palmer. But a young QB would also increase Gresham's value there, that's for sure. I just haven't seen much speculation that Palmer will actually be gone, whether traded or retired. I thought that had calmed down recently.
On Twitter, I went to the mat for Vernon Davis over Jason Witten. I don't have any problem with the suggestion that Gresham should be higher, though.Ultimately, like most Dynasty rankings, it comes to contender vs. builder. If I'm contending, I'm going to prefer Cooley who -- probably to the surprise of most -- actually was second among all tight ends in receptions (77) and third in yards (849) last year. Same thing with Marcedes Lewis ... as long as it's standard scoring and not PPR. I could see dropping Pettigrew a couple of spots, considering his splits with Stafford vs. Hill.
He's more of an "old school" TE than the "WR-TE hybrid" types like Hernandez, Keller and Clark, but he' plenty athletic enough to be a successful Brady target. He can get open, run reasonably well after the catch and is a big strong target that uses his body well (making him an ideal red-zone target).
You're telling me Julio Jones and AJ Green come into the league as the 11th and 12th best dynasty wideouts?
12th and 13th.
I would definitely put them both in that tier (Britt/Maclin/VJax/.../Wayne) and there's only 2 or 3 in that tier I think have more value.
I think they're both tremendous talents that will do well, but I kind of agree that with the plethora of talent at the wideout position, it's tough to put those guys that high sight unseen. I know those that snooze, lose in a dynasty format but I just think there's so much safer talent with similiar upside in that range (Bowe, Austin, Britt, Crabtree, Welker, Wallace, Holmes, TB M. Williams, etc. that's its a real risk putting those guys in the WR1 mix already.
Austin and Wallace are already a tier ahead according to F&L's rankings.I would put Britt slightly ahead and that's why I'd slot them at 12 and 13 (F&L has Britt #11).
An NFL life is short.It's very interesting to start at the beginning of this thread.
I went back to the start to see how far we've come. I think F&L ended up with Grossman ranked a bit *high* for any purpose haha
This reminds me of that skit from Sesame Street where one kid is doing his own thing and doesnt quite belong with the other 3.
I think it's foolish to hold rookie drafts before the NFL draft. How do you value a player with any degree of accuracy if you don't even know the context? It's an exercise in futility. I think you have them slightly overvalued right now. But again, it's essentially meaningless until we know their NFL destination.Anyway, I do like A.J. Green a lot. Jones' Combine performance was awesome. But I don't like either of them nearly as much as I liked Dez Bryant at this time last year.
I'm not picking now, but I am trading for picks, moving up and down, etc. It's better to move a player for a pick or move up now than when hype trains are in full effect and guys are OTC.
As I understand it the idea is that it helps separate folks who are good at reading news clips and evaluating situation from folks who are better at IDing talent without the help of the NFL draft or coach's quotes.
I'm sure that's the intention. I have no confidence that these talent evaluators are doing any better than someone who doesn't watch a quarter of college football.
Agreed. Had a guy take Clausen 3rd overall last year because he liked going completely against the grain and ignoring what the "experts" think. I like that he went with his gut, and this is obviously an extreme example, but you have to realize that even if you REALLY want "your" guy, you can get better value than that.If he would have done a little research, and a little less "talent evaluating", he wouldn't have wasted that pick.
Even if I agreed with you (I don't - there are people in my leagues who are consistently better at this than others) it's a lot of fun to do your own work and make your own calls. Not sure why this gets peoples backs up and sets their snark meters running.
I always have thought that was a defense mechanism by people who sucked at it.
We don't have to agree on everything. Snark meter?
I've never played in a league that has its rookie draft before the NFL draft, but there's a part of me that thinks it's a really cool idea. Adds a whole new level of interest and investment into watching the NFL draft: seeing where your new rookies end up. Hoping team X passes on him; hoping team Y picks him, etc. Has to be fun...And, as others have mentioned, it seems like a scenario that would, over time, reward the owner who was better informed/better prepared about the incoming rookie class.
We are doing something similar in our startup draft. Instead of actual players we can draft picks like rookie 1.01 and so on. Then we have the rookie draft after the NFL draft.
It is an interesting aspect. One of the leagues I play in has it. Some interesting picks from last years draft...Dwyer at 1.4 - Obviously the NFL draft made his value plummetGerhart at 1.6 - The draft killed his value as wellB. Tate at 2.3 - He was a mid 1st rounder based on being drafted by the TexansM. Williams at 3.10J. Graham at 3.11J. Starks at 3.12 - All players who's value went up big time due to hype and landing spot in most league draftsIt can be really good or really bad, but it is certainly interesting.
I agree with all of this (and also only play in leagues that draft after NFL draft). It sounds like it could be realinteresting. The one downside though is in theory the rookie drafts should be designed to help the bad teams get better and not knowing the situation thos players will be in lessens that liklihood and also devalues the picks' trade values to a small degree.
I agree. I also think it promotes taking a more shotgun draft approach. ie three mid 2nd round picks may be more valuable than a mid 1st. Every pick is a crapshoot outside of the top couple, so the more picks you have the better your chances of hitting on something.
not really, the combine made his value plummet. He was fat and looked bad in all drills at the combine, after that many mocks had him dropping to the 3rd-5th round range.many people think the combine doesn't matter, but it does when a guy clearly looks bad and out of shape.
