Concept Coop
Footballguy
SSOG: Jeremy Maclin at #27 needs some explaining. After Greg Little? After Michael Crabtree? After Reggie Wayne? Save value as Demaryius Thomas?! Que?!
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Dynasty Rankings (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
BigJim®
Footballguy
I see Da'Rel Scott as having sneaky ultra buy low value in dynasty. I've checked several dynasty rankings and have rarely even seen him listed. I definitely have him on the cusp of opportunity and a blue light must-stash special.
1. He's behind Bradshaw and Jacobs, each who have had some injury history.
2. He beat out Andre Brown for a roster spot, and seems to have also outplayed NYG darling DJ Ware, who has his own oft-injury history. Yes, Brown is on the practice squad, but it is telling I think that Scott was retained with Brown being exposed to other NFL teams. Advantage Scott.
3. He has the measurables, having accomplished the best 40 time at the combines 4.37. Before folks point to the Chris Henry workout warrior comparison, note that he's also shown that speed on an NFL field with 97 and 65 yard TDs in very limited preseason action, albeit vs. scrubs (he also had scrubs blocking for him). Yes, the 65 yard TD was on a gimmicky fake punt, but I was particularly impressed with the 97 yard TD where he got caught behind the line, showed great balance, and then the vision and immediate burst needed to get through an opening into daylight. He won't be caught when he does that.
I scooped up Bradshaw on my dynasty FA heap 4 years ago and see a lot of similarities here with Scott, another 7th round diamond in the rough. Maybe not a guy who does anything this year, but possibly next year. Obviously how he develops with pass protection and playbook will be key, but the guy is remarkably similar to Bradshaw, and may well be a Bradshaw injury away from getting opportunity in his 'lightening' role IMHO. He also seems to have his head on straight from interviews I've seen, which also counts for me looking at longer term projects.
1. He's behind Bradshaw and Jacobs, each who have had some injury history.
2. He beat out Andre Brown for a roster spot, and seems to have also outplayed NYG darling DJ Ware, who has his own oft-injury history. Yes, Brown is on the practice squad, but it is telling I think that Scott was retained with Brown being exposed to other NFL teams. Advantage Scott.
3. He has the measurables, having accomplished the best 40 time at the combines 4.37. Before folks point to the Chris Henry workout warrior comparison, note that he's also shown that speed on an NFL field with 97 and 65 yard TDs in very limited preseason action, albeit vs. scrubs (he also had scrubs blocking for him). Yes, the 65 yard TD was on a gimmicky fake punt, but I was particularly impressed with the 97 yard TD where he got caught behind the line, showed great balance, and then the vision and immediate burst needed to get through an opening into daylight. He won't be caught when he does that.
I scooped up Bradshaw on my dynasty FA heap 4 years ago and see a lot of similarities here with Scott, another 7th round diamond in the rough. Maybe not a guy who does anything this year, but possibly next year. Obviously how he develops with pass protection and playbook will be key, but the guy is remarkably similar to Bradshaw, and may well be a Bradshaw injury away from getting opportunity in his 'lightening' role IMHO. He also seems to have his head on straight from interviews I've seen, which also counts for me looking at longer term projects.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
SSOG
Moderator
Haha, hadn't seen that. I think it's a glitch in the system because Kirsner doesn't input value scores- I think it's set up for me to display every player I assign a value greater than 0 to (there are a lot of other players who I have populating my lists with 0 value so I can move them into my rankings at any point). No clue how the system decides which players to display and which not to display in Jason's rankings. That might be why it's spitting out those crazy rank numbers.
I'm what you could call a Michael Turner "hater". I've been really down on him for a couple of years now. Typically, when I have a strongly different opinion than the majority, I wind up ranking that player somewhere between where my "gut" says he should go and where the majority says he should go. I don't feel like this is a copout, I feel like this is a hedge- it's my way of using the "wisdom of crowds" as another datapoint in my player evaluation.Anyway, Michael Turner for the last two years has had a bit of an "anti-hater bump" in effect. It's been there so long that by now it's pretty much unconscious. If the majority is souring on his dynasty prospects, though, perhaps its time to re-evaluate whether Turner still deserves the hedge effect, and if not, how much further he should drop.
I've never been a huge Maclin fan- not buying into the huge hype, and don't think he'll ever supplant Desean as the #1. I am, on the other hand, a big believer in the talent of Thomas and Crabtree. Perhaps I have Little too high- it's really hard for me to rank rookies at first, because I don't scout college. I never feel too confident about my rookie ranks until halfway through the season when I've had a couple chances to see them play.
What about them? Ma Jones didn't raise no fools. Even Thomas thinks Charles should be getting more carries than him.'Dr. Octopus said:
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
James Jones-Release him to the WW
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Hard to ignore what Jordyzz Nelson has done in his last two games. The price tag is way up, but still not what it could be if he can keep it up. In other words, time to decide whether you are a buyer or seller. Thoughts?
az_prof
Footballguy
Seller. I see Cobb supplanting him. And between Jennings, Cobb (by next season), and Finley, when does Nelson get fed?
SSOG
Moderator
Seller. There's only been one #3 target I can think of who has been a quality fantasy play (Brandon Stokley, 2004), and Nelson isn't even guaranteed of being the #3 (Jennings, Finley, and eventually I think Cobb will pass him, too). Good bench guy, but I'd be willing to bet I could find someone paying a starter's price for him.
EBF
Footballguy
Nelson is no superstar, but I don't know if we should be anointing Cobb after one game (and I own him in two dynasty leagues, so you can't call me a hater 
).
I think GB is a team that could remain very difficult to predict on a weekly basis. Finley and Jennings seem like the only safe bets to make a dent every week.
The other guys will all have their moments, at least in the short term.
).I think GB is a team that could remain very difficult to predict on a weekly basis. Finley and Jennings seem like the only safe bets to make a dent every week.
The other guys will all have their moments, at least in the short term.
Bears_Man2
Footballguy
Love Jordy in this offense. I don't see him going anywhere soon. Guy is the total package. Cobb's a player -- but his future is in the slot.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Nelson is no superstar, but I don't know if we should be anointing Cobb after one game (and I own him in two dynasty leagues, so you can't call me a hater
Cobb is getting too much love based in large part to the kick return TD. TDs via kick returns obviously aren't going to happen often, and at 5'10 190lbs I don't anticipate him getting much more receiving TDs either. And as someone who is 3rd or 4th in line to receive targets at best, I don't anticipate Cobb having much value in redraft leagues this year. Obviously this is a Dynasty thread so that doesn't matter too much, but if I were a Jordy Nelson owner I definitely wouldn't be selling him this early into what promises to be his most successful season yet, and if I were a Randall Cobb owner I'd be listening to offers and wouldn't rule out trading him to someone who's giving in big to the hype.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Mike Wallace didn't have much value in redraft his first year. Only 39 receptions. Mostly a deep threat with sporadic (but healthy) TD production. But it was obvious from game 1 that Roethlisberger trusted him and he was going to be good. It's kind of hard to ignore the parallel. If you spent a late 1st or 2nd on Cobb, I'm not sure what offers would be enticing at this point. Obviously selling him for a future 1st is meaningless. What sort of overpay would it take? He was worth more than Boldin or Welker last week. If someone's going to give you Manningham, Holmes, or Stevie perhaps, but in general I think this is more of a case of people catching up to his value/upside rather than him now being overvalued.
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Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
I wasn't thinking so much of a 1 for 1 type deal, more like pairing Cobb with some other player(s)/pick(s) and going for one of the top WRs.
SSOG
Moderator
I'm not selling Nelson based on Cobb. I'm selling Nelson because even in a best-case scenario, he's getting the scraps left over after Jennings and Finley get theirs. In a worst-case scenario, he's stuck behind Cobb, as well. Even that best-case scenario is enough to get me to sell, the worst-case scenario is just additional icing. I just don't see a path for Jordy to become a consistent fantasy starter... so if I can find someone who'll pay me consistent-starter value for him, I'm making that trade.
This is very true. I distinctly remember having a conversation with someone in my league after the Thursday night game that year (Pittsburgh played in the season opener). I had #1 waiver priority and was trying to trade it. He was telling me our league was so deep there wasn't anything good on waivers, anyway. I told him he was crazy and asked him if he'd seen Mike Wallace play the night before. I never thought Wallace would be this good, this quick... but he definitely flashed some serious potential pretty much immediately. And Cobb has done the same. It's not just his kickoff return TD (although that doesn't hurt), it's the total package.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
I guess personal preference of both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb plays a significant part in this. As I struggle to envision a scenario where Randall Cobb becomes a more consistent fantasy performer than Jordy Nelson, at least for this year. As for Jordy always playing third fiddle, I don't necessarily see that as being the case. Although Aaron Rodgers may force the ball to Jennings and Finley some, he's not going to do so if somebody else is open. And seeing as defenses are more likely to pay extra attention to Jennings and Finley, that frees Jordy up for a lot of single coverage. Because of that, I don't think games in which Nelson gets a lot of targets (such as on Thursday where he got as many as Jennings and twice as many as Finley did) are going to be all that rare.I'm not selling Nelson based on Cobb. I'm selling Nelson because even in a best-case scenario, he's getting the scraps left over after Jennings and Finley get theirs. In a worst-case scenario, he's stuck behind Cobb, as well. Even that best-case scenario is enough to get me to sell, the worst-case scenario is just additional icing. I just don't see a path for Jordy to become a consistent fantasy starter... so if I can find someone who'll pay me consistent-starter value for him, I'm making that trade.
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SSOG
Moderator
I struggle to envision a scenario where Cobb becomes a more consistent performer than Nelson this year, too. He's a rookie. That's a given. In dynasty leagues, though, I'm never counting any any production until year 3, anyway. If they perform before that, it's just gravy.
This is a technical error that should be remedied in the next 24 hours. I'm not sure what's causing it, by I've made our tech guy aware of it, and it should be remedied shortly. Although ranking Brandon Jackson at 1000th, probably isn't too far off.Thos are Jason's ratings ("the other guy"From his running back rankings:You're going to have to explain that one to me, because I'm not following...
Good shtick) - who also posts here, btw.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
I still don't know what to make of the GB WR situation. It's definitely pretty crowded with Finley getting a lot of targets and Jennings the surest bet. Then there's Cobb, Nelson, Driver, Jones, etc. While its definitely an offense that could support 4 productive WR/TEs, I'd personally cash out on Cobb if somebody offered me anything near a guy like Santonio Holmes or Mario Manningham for him. He's definitely a better prospect than the Brandon Tate, Taylor Price, Julian Edelman types but those guys were way overvalued for a while also early in their careers due to their upside in a great offense. You could also point to guys like Anthony Gonzales, Pierre Garcon, Donald Brown, etc. in Indy who were overvalued as young guys in a great offense.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Packer WRs.
Jordy Nelson 6'3" 217lbs
James Jones 6'1" 208lbs
Donald Driver 6'0" 194lbs
Greg Jennings 5'11" 198lbs
Randall Cobb 5"10" 192lbs
The one thing that Nelson offers that the others don't have is size. He's just a bigger player than the rest of them, and Rodgers is starting to take advantage of that. I am keenly aware that the Colts are the only team to ever support 3 high quality fantasy starters. It is truly a dilemma for those not named Jennings or Finley. However, I would be hesitant to sell on Nelson. He's a UFA after this season, and so is Finley. Driver is also winding down his career. I think Nelson could be a solid WR3 this year, and could vault into the top 20 next season depending on how everything plays out in Free Agency.
Jordy Nelson 6'3" 217lbs
James Jones 6'1" 208lbs
Donald Driver 6'0" 194lbs
Greg Jennings 5'11" 198lbs
Randall Cobb 5"10" 192lbs
The one thing that Nelson offers that the others don't have is size. He's just a bigger player than the rest of them, and Rodgers is starting to take advantage of that. I am keenly aware that the Colts are the only team to ever support 3 high quality fantasy starters. It is truly a dilemma for those not named Jennings or Finley. However, I would be hesitant to sell on Nelson. He's a UFA after this season, and so is Finley. Driver is also winding down his career. I think Nelson could be a solid WR3 this year, and could vault into the top 20 next season depending on how everything plays out in Free Agency.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
How are you guys handling the non-Ingram rookie RBs? It seems like almost all of them are getting mulligans this year and their value is much lower than it was 2 months ago. Which are buys, which are holds, and which are sell lows? I've been buying Vereen a few places just because I liked him so much coming in and know people are sneezing at the situation. Some other guys like Carter, Thomas, Green, Powell I am more unenthusiastic about due to lackluster preseasons, etc. and would sell if/where I owned them. Hunter, Taiwan, and Quizz at least showed something in the exhibitions so maybe haven't lost as much value.
EBF
Footballguy
The class was pretty "meh" from the start and it took a big blow when Williams and Leshoure went down injured.
I thought Daniel Thomas could step in and produce immediately, but that hasn't happened.
Nobody else looks that great really. I might be inclined to take a flyer on Vereen, Carter, Quizz, or Hunter. Vereen is the only guy from that group who looks like a real threat to earn a starting job in the near future though. Maybe Carter if Addai really struggles.
The one guy who has me intrigued is Dion Lewis. Loved his game coming out of Pitt and he's already getting carries. He's such a great fit for that system. It's just a shame that he's stuck behind Shady. Hard to see him getting many opportunities barring injury or trade. For that reason he's more desirable as a throw-in than as a target. You could end up holding the bag for 3-4 years with no reward ala Tashard Choice. Plus side is, his lack of opportunity makes him cheap.
Not wild about this RB class though. I don't think we'll see another banner crop until 2013, which looks stacked already.
I thought Daniel Thomas could step in and produce immediately, but that hasn't happened.
Nobody else looks that great really. I might be inclined to take a flyer on Vereen, Carter, Quizz, or Hunter. Vereen is the only guy from that group who looks like a real threat to earn a starting job in the near future though. Maybe Carter if Addai really struggles.
The one guy who has me intrigued is Dion Lewis. Loved his game coming out of Pitt and he's already getting carries. He's such a great fit for that system. It's just a shame that he's stuck behind Shady. Hard to see him getting many opportunities barring injury or trade. For that reason he's more desirable as a throw-in than as a target. You could end up holding the bag for 3-4 years with no reward ala Tashard Choice. Plus side is, his lack of opportunity makes him cheap.
Not wild about this RB class though. I don't think we'll see another banner crop until 2013, which looks stacked already.
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
I would be looking to take a flyer on Powell. There is nothing but mediocrity in front of him, I am pretty certain he will get a shot at that job some time soon.
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Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Didn't McKnight seriously out perform him in preseason? Speaking of McKnight, can he be an every down back, or is his future as strictly a 3rd down guy?
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He looked more mediocre than anyone in front of him this preseason. Maybe it was rookie nerves but he was very hesitent to the holes and looked very pedestrian running the ball. I think Greene can get going if the line gels a bit and Joe McKnight looked much better than Powell with similiar situational carries this preseason.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
McKnight is probably better served as a tandem back, but I don't see why he couldn't be an every down back. He isn't all that small or fragile and runs hard. Rex is very impressed with his speed and explosiveness. At this stage I think he'd get the next shot at least should Greene not progress. LT2 would wear down too quickly if they increased his role and they like him in the 3rd down role.
Doc Oc is on top of the Powell/McKnight situation. Powell looked worse than McKnight in preseason, McKnight has become a valuable ST player and McKnight is the 3rd RB active on gamedays. If Greene is so ineffective that the coaching staff turns to someone else, that person will be McKnight. He will get the first opportunity to win the job. Also, Greene and LT aren't going to be declared inactive, so the Jets would have to decide to roll with 4 RB's just to give Powell a chance to see the field.
Several independent events need to occur to just give Powell a chance at the job, while McKnight only needs one (Greene to continue to stink up the joint.)
I'm a Powell owner and don't have McKnight. 2012 is the first time anyone can expect Powell to have a shot at the job. He would need to look much better than he has so far.
Several independent events need to occur to just give Powell a chance at the job, while McKnight only needs one (Greene to continue to stink up the joint.)
I'm a Powell owner and don't have McKnight. 2012 is the first time anyone can expect Powell to have a shot at the job. He would need to look much better than he has so far.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Has Delone Carter at any time looked better than Joseph Addai in any facet of being a NFL RB. (I realize it is W2 after a shortened camp but if you own him and think it is possibly a sell high, now is the time to decide.) Brown at least had some burst/4th gear. Not to defend Brown.
az_prof
Footballguy
Exactly SSOG! All I want to assess for my rookies is their real, NFL ceiling. Do they have "it"? Cobb has "it." No doubt in my mind now.
az_prof
Footballguy
If someone was willing to overpay for Carter, this is a great time to sell. He hasn't shown me "great" ability. He looks like Shonne Greene light. He may end up starting for IND by the end of the year, but that team is on the downward swing, and they are just not designed to be a running team.
az_prof
Footballguy
I thought he WAS fragile in college. That was my impression. He was a complementary guy in college, in any case.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Havent had enough of a look yet, given that he has only gotten 7 career carries. The point was that there is nothing but mediocrity in front of him, and he will likely get a shot at the job at some point.
Righetti
Footballguy
wow..I honestly thought Jennings was bigger.. he sure plays bigger if that makes sense.
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
I don't doubt that he did look more mediocre. I also remember what he looked like in college, and I am not willing to write that off based on his performance in the preseason with limited offseason work. McKnight is like Forsett, Norwood, etc. He will never be given a full time RB job. He's a bit player.
BallparkFrank
Footballguy
The one guy you didn't really mention that has the ability to destroy Jordy Nelson's dynasty value is Randall Cobb. It's still early, but Cobb might be the most talented WR the Packers have. When Driver retires or becomes ineffective, Cobb will be a monster in the slot and the 3 most talented pass catchers will likely be some combination of Jennings, Finley (if re-signed) and Cobb. I think Nelson has a nice re-draft year, but I'm just not a dynasty believer at all. Perhaps I'm in the minority.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm not writing Powell off yet either and as I said his hesitency may just be based on "overthinking" as a rookie just looking to make the team.As far as McKnight goes, as stated I think he makes more sense as a tandem back as well, but it's tough to say which back can or which back can not ever be a feature back due to size. The same things were said about Jamal Charles, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, etc. I don't think he's as talented as any of those backs, but he does have some nice speed and isn't a guy that goes down with an arm tackle like Jerious Norwood. In his only real chance at being a feature back he ran for over 150 yards getting a full load. Of course that came in Week 17 against a terrible and likely disinterested Bills' defense, but he did show he's capable of at least holding up with a full workload and that he could be productive in that role.
killrobotkill
Footballguy
So in one of my dynasty leagues, I've been offered a trade of Tim Tebow for my Josh Johnson, straight up. I've always liked Johnson for his pure athleticism and raw ability, plus the fact that he will be an UFA going into next year gives me hope he'll actually get out of Freeman's shadow and start some games next year. But Tebow is intriguing, not only for his two great FF games last year but for the greater opportunity he'll have to be a starter, sooner. I was looking through this thread to see what the consensus was on Johnson, but wasn't able to find anything - if I missed it, feel free to point out which page number to go to.
Anyway, what are everybody's thoughts on Johnson? Thanks in advance.
Anyway, what are everybody's thoughts on Johnson? Thanks in advance.
az_prof
Footballguy
I would jump all over that trade. Tebow has shown that when he gets a chance to play, he will produce very good fantasy numbers. It isn't like Josh JOhnson is a sure thing at all. I doubt anyteam will go after him as their starter--they may give him a chance to compete, but I see him as a career backup. Tebow may bust, but he has a chance to be a starter and a top 10 fantasy QB.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
It's a very weird rookie RB class. Outside of Ingram and Williams, I was most impressed with Taiwan Jones and Dion Lewis in the preseason. I grabbed both guys primarily as long term handcuffs to Shady and DMC, but they really flashed in the preseason. But both guys are stuck behind 23 year old superstar RBs. While I'm normally a talent over situation guy, its still kind of hard seeing how either guy is anything more than a handcuff type player anytime soon. Really not sure what to do with these guys...
I also own Dexter McCluster from last year's class and love his talent, but he's in a similar situation with Charles blocking him long term. At least in a return yard league he's a solid bye week guy, but his upside is extremely limited with JC there.
I also own Dexter McCluster from last year's class and love his talent, but he's in a similar situation with Charles blocking him long term. At least in a return yard league he's a solid bye week guy, but his upside is extremely limited with JC there.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
The sleeper back from this past 2011 draft that I like is Kendall Hunter. He dominated in the preseason to a tune of 6.6 YPC or something, and he's just one Frank Gore injury away from possibly putting up top15 back numbers.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Who is Doc Oc? Not that I'm doubting what you write here.'OddibeMcD said:
Sabertooth
Footballguy
In the spirit of full disclosure, I am a Johnson owner. If the Tebow owner offer him to me straight up, I'd do it. And I don't take this decision lightly as my league is a start 2QB league. But the decision is closer than you might think.Tebow is a huge name and has those games. He would presumably get the start. I am not sure though as we've seen John Fox doggedly stick with veterans in the past. Stephen Davis, Deshaun Foster, etc continued to be starters long after the fantasy world began gnashing their teeth about it. John Fox is a real coach, not some young phenom. He isn't going to bow to some fans chanting Tebow. He didn't do it in Carolina, he isn't going to do it now unless Orton implodes under the pressure (I doubt he does).Johnson is not starting this season unless Freeman is hurt. Well, that's any backup. And I agree with the above post that he will probably not be given a job ala Kolb. He might, but I doubt it. He will be brought into a place to compete. And with Tampa so far under the cap, he might just get the most money to stay put.
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This thread is getting no love this year!!!
With Britt being out does Cook finally shine or is he destined for the waiver wire?
What's the Titus Young outlook?
Who's leading the Brown/Sanders position battle?
Is Ingram finally making his move?
Anything!?!?!?!?
I miss this thread!
WFR
With Britt being out does Cook finally shine or is he destined for the waiver wire?
What's the Titus Young outlook?
Who's leading the Brown/Sanders position battle?
Is Ingram finally making his move?
Anything!?!?!?!?
I miss this thread!
WFR
az_prof
Footballguy
Britt being injured lowers his value tremendously. Many around here had moved him up to the elite or near elite tier or receivers. Now, on top of his troubles with the law, this injury moves him down to low WR2 status (WR24). The team still doesn't have a long term answer at QB and he is missing out on Hasselbeck this season. While he is out maybe Cook or Damian Williams emerge and thus limit his ceiling when he finally returns.The immediate beneficiary this season I think will be Washington. Long term I think it will be Williams. I am not sold on Cook and never did understand the hype.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
The hype is because he is 6'5" 250 and can run a 4.50 40. Other than Vernon Davis, no TE matches him in athletic ability. Not even Finley. It seemed like the door was already open for him to have a big 2011; I'm at a loss why he only has 5 catches so far when he had 15 in the last 3 weeks of 2010. Only 7 targets as well. This opens the door for him a little wider for sure.There is no chance Damian Williams will eat into Britt's value long term. I am already selling Damian hard in the league I have him.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I agree with that, but this is his opportunity to develop his niche. He could be the short area possession guy to Britt's downfield threat.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Even if he doesn't hit those numbers, I think its too early for him to hit the waiver wire unless you have pretty shallow rosters. This is dynasty, after all.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Bumping this thread because it should always be on page one...
