Future 1st and it's not a long time to wait. I'm sure J Stewart has been pulling future 1s or more for a while and he hasn't "paid off" yet.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Dynasty Rankings (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
bengalbuck
Footballguy
I just took him at 11.07 in a 12 team PPR league 2 days ago. (There were some devys already taken, so more like a 10th rounder, but still.)In another 12 team PPR league I'm in that drafted 3 weeks ago, he went 10.08.
And according to the dynasty ADP at Profootballfocus (the most accurate that I can find), he is going 9.06:
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/04/12/fantasy-2012-dynasty-average-draft-position-adp/
I really like him, but I think 6th round is too high. There's a decent chance that Jennings re-signs in GB. And Jordy's signed long-term. Finley has a couple years left on his current deal. He's a talented guy, but so are all 3 of those other guys and there's only so many balls to go around. Plus, all 3 of those guys are better red zone threats, so it's hard to see him ever putting up big TD numbers..
You almost have to take him knowing you aren't likely to get a startable guy in 2012 and really cross your fingers that Jennings bolts in FA. If not, he still could end up being a guy who can be a WR2 or WR3, but hard to see him as a WR1 with all those other guys around.
I personally like Antonio Brown better. There's 4,000 yards to be divvied up in the Steelers passing game. And other than Wallace (who is a great deep threat but not an elite all around WR, plus possibly gone after this season), there isn't a ton of competition. While Rodgers may throw for 800 more yards than Ben, there are a lot more guys splitting those yards in GB than in Pitt.
Team Legacy
Footballguy
FFPC dynasty is different. First tight ends at 1.5 ppr. Second, even though its called dynasty, its actually a large keeper league. Every year you have to cut down to 14 skill guys.
Finally, I'm curious how many FFPC dynasty guys are actual dynasty veterans (5+ leagues exp) vs redrafters giving dynasty a shot. He's went 7th round in both hyper drafts I participated in last month.
Finally, I'm curious how many FFPC dynasty guys are actual dynasty veterans (5+ leagues exp) vs redrafters giving dynasty a shot. He's went 7th round in both hyper drafts I participated in last month.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
was offered ADP for 1.03, rejected and took Luck. And I know he pretty much offered ADP to everyone that had a top 5 pick and everyone turned it down, the time to move Peterson is mid season when hes fully healthy.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
was offered ADP for 1.03, rejected and took Luck. And I know he pretty much offered ADP to everyone that had a top 5 pick and everyone turned it down, the time to move Peterson is mid season when hes fully healthy.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Yeah... was disappointed to find this when I looked into those leagues. Was considering a move up in weight class, but am only interested in true dynasty.
Team Legacy
Footballguy
The reason this is done is the money involved. This helps keep the league intact and competitive in case you have an owner decide to leave, a team can be built back up quickly. Plus, I feel its an interesting hybrid of annual rookie drafting, short and long term trading with a mix of redraft evaluations.Example: I drafted Ryan Broyles, Stephen Hill and AJ Jenkins this year. It will be almost impossible to keep all 3 due to the rules, lucky if I keep 1. Stafford Lynch, Murray, Best, Ryan Williams, Leshoure, Hunter, VereenCalvin, Marshall, VJax, DHBPettigrew, Tamme, HouslerThat's 15 right there, so I'll have to cut 4 of these guys to be able to add those 3 rookies. ITs a tough one to crack. I wouldn't necesarily shy away from it just because of the challenge. The question is how confident are you that these rookies will pan out better than your other options. You can no longer safely stash players away on a deep bench.
Instinctive
Footballguy
cheese
Footballguy
I don't think their is any format where I prefer either Vick or Luck over Richardson.
squistion
Footballguy
az_prof
Footballguy
Exactly. If you think he can be a top 10 WR in GB, and many of us do, then it is worth waiting a few years. He is very young.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Are you guys new to this thread? That type of question gets asked in this thread all the time and it isn't out of scope. He'll either get responses or he won't. People like you certainly aren't helping.I'd probably take the pick and try to move down a spot or two to get the faller of RG3 or Luck + whatever you pick up for the pick. But who knows if you can swing that deal. Try to get a throw in on this deal if you don't think you can move the pick.
Instinctive
Footballguy
In a 2 QB league, Luck and RGIII should go first and second overall.And no, not new. Just not a fan of the blatantly obvious, slightly obnoxious questions like that. Which clearly do not belong here. And the people answering only encourage it. It's the offseason, that's supposed to be the one time of the year we don't have to deal with that crap.Are you guys new to this thread? That type of question gets asked in this thread all the time and it isn't out of scope. He'll either get responses or he won't. People like you certainly aren't helping.I'd probably take the pick and try to move down a spot or two to get the faller of RG3 or Luck + whatever you pick up for the pick. But who knows if you can swing that deal. Try to get a throw in on this deal if you don't think you can move the pick.
squistion
Footballguy
Exactly. And it was questions like this, that didn't belong here, that IMO contributed to the decline of interest and postings in this thread. If this question had been a new thread that was started, it would have been moved to the AC forum. Sadly, some people try to do an end run around the moderators by posting AC questions here (and they know the entire thread will not be moved).In a 2 QB league, Luck and RGIII should go first and second overall.And no, not new. Just not a fan of the blatantly obvious, slightly obnoxious questions like that. Which clearly do not belong here. And the people answering only encourage it. It's the offseason, that's supposed to be the one time of the year we don't have to deal with that crap.Are you guys new to this thread? That type of question gets asked in this thread all the time and it isn't out of scope. He'll either get responses or he won't. People like you certainly aren't helping.I'd probably take the pick and try to move down a spot or two to get the faller of RG3 or Luck + whatever you pick up for the pick. But who knows if you can swing that deal. Try to get a throw in on this deal if you don't think you can move the pick.
Last edited by a moderator:
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
Meh, whatever. I mean, you have a point, but I think a question like that could generate some real discussion.For my money, I'd rather take my chances with Luck. There's just too much baggage with Vick no matter how you look at it.Exactly. And it was questions like this, that didn't belong here, that IMO contributed to the decline of interest and postings in this thread. If this question had been a new thread that was started, it would have been moved to the AC forum. Sadly, some people try to do an end run around the moderators by posting AC questions here (and they know the entire thread will not be moved).In a 2 QB league, Luck and RGIII should go first and second overall.And no, not new. Just not a fan of the blatantly obvious, slightly obnoxious questions like that. Which clearly do not belong here. And the people answering only encourage it. It's the offseason, that's supposed to be the one time of the year we don't have to deal with that crap.Are you guys new to this thread? That type of question gets asked in this thread all the time and it isn't out of scope. He'll either get responses or he won't. People like you certainly aren't helping.I'd probably take the pick and try to move down a spot or two to get the faller of RG3 or Luck + whatever you pick up for the pick. But who knows if you can swing that deal. Try to get a throw in on this deal if you don't think you can move the pick.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
BTW, for those that don't know... the original poster to this thread works for Rotoworld now and he did a dynasty start-up mock draft with himself.
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/40824/69/dynasty-startup-mock-part-i
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/40824/69/dynasty-startup-mock-part-i
yanos
Footballguy
I feel like Luck is more of a gamble than a lot of other Qbs, including Vick. With Vick, you know what you are getting. Top production when healthy. With Luck, we don't know. Let's agree that the Colts offense is a mess right now. And being a rookie being a porous O-Line aint no beach party.
I am leaning toward keeping Vick.
I am leaning toward keeping Vick.
Tau837
Footballguy
No and no.
Hoot&HoLLer
Footballguy
:goodpost: Antonio Brown as starting wr 1a or 1b on Steelers is greater production than Cobb a wr3 on crowded Packers list of pass catchers.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
What would you give up in terms of draft picks to get Mendenhall? Seems like a first rounder is certainly reasonable. I'm thinking a 2013 first would probably be about right.
MAC_32
Footballguy
No way. I wouldn't do it for a 2, but I won't argue with someone that does.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Your Browns homerism is showing here. Mendenhall isn't elite, but he just turned 25 and has top-10 fantasy season under his belt, which was accomplished on a team that really hasn't provided much in the way of run blocking. He's also a UFA after this year. He's easily worth more than a 2nd. I think that getting him for a mid-late 1st is a steal. He's a solid young RB and ACLs aren't anywhere close to a death sentence any more.
cheese
Footballguy
I think his UFA status hurts more than helps. He could easily sign somewhere to be in a time share at best after this year. I don't want to be holding the hot potato if that happens. With that said, a future 2nd? That's buying pretty low regardless of what you think of the guy.
His top 10 season was based on a large number of carries (3.9 ypc). I think he's worth a late 1st/early 2nd because he's "pretty good", but I don't think he's close to an elite talent and could easily end up in a major time share for the rest of his career. Just my opinion though.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I've never been a big fan of Mendenhall and thought pre injury Redman outplayed him last year. An already uninteresting talent coming off injury that's a pending UFA? I think he's forced to sign in a committee role next year. Given Pittsburgh's lack of cap space they aren't going to have room for him.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
No, but "yes" in a league with no offseason waivers and no reason to drop him until the cutdown date.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Would you rather have Mendenhall or a shot at guys like Cam, Quizz, DeMarco Murray, Decker, LaFell, Britt, Maclin, etc? This is why I wouldn't buy Mendenhall for a #2, if there are some guys available in the 2nd I really like I'd rather take a shot at them than Mendenhall, even if I thought he'd have a good shot at a lead job next year. I'd do it for a 3 just for value's sake and try to flip him in-season if he has a couple of good games, but I really don't feel comfortable giving up a top 2 round pick in the event I'm the one stuck holding the bag.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Worst case for Mendenhall is Thomas Jones IMO. He may not end up in an unbelievably good situation like Jones did with the Jets, but Mendenhall's also a better back and will be, at worst, the lead back in a RBBC for the next 5-6 years when healthy.
If there were an owner crazy enough to sell him for a 2nd he'd be a must buy. But I doubt that anyone who owns him will actually do a deal like that, so suspect Mendenhall's just not moving right now.
If there were an owner crazy enough to sell him for a 2nd he'd be a must buy. But I doubt that anyone who owns him will actually do a deal like that, so suspect Mendenhall's just not moving right now.
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
I have been dangling him on the trade bait all offseason. Only offer I have received is Shonn Greene. I can not get anyone to offer a pick of any kind. I guess I am holding for now.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I got LMJ in the 2nd and missed Quizz by a pick last year. Absolutely no way I'd consider moving either of them for Mendenhall.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Guess it depends on your league, but I'm pretty sure that none of those guys except Decker and LaFell were 2nds in any league I'm in. 2nd rounders, even if you are damn good at rookie eval (which I'm really not so maybe I'm biased), have a hit rate well below 50% most years. Also, I like LaFell and Quizz, own one or both in multiple dynasty leagues, and would insta-accept if offered Mendenhall for either one, or probably even for both of them together. I've been trying to acquire Mendy in a bunch of leagues since the injury, hoping to buy at a discount, but no one's willing to dump him in any of my leagues.
MAC_32
Footballguy
FWIW, there's IDP's in my league. Most non stud LB's don't go before round 3, so the top 2 rounds are primarily offense with 1-3 LB's sprinkled in.I'm very surprised the Mendenhall owners are holding if offered those pieces, I know the Mendenhall owner in our league wishes he was getting bites like that. No one in either of my leagues are touching him.
Dez
Footballguy
This is my 16th year of dynasty for my local I created in 1997 very different than FFPC as we have taxi squads and contracts and salary caps ect.Taxi squads being the huge difference most of my team right now comes from 2nd round and on rookie picks (we can place 2nd-7th rounds on taxi squads for up to 3 years)My team is littered with taxi squad 2nd-7th round picks which is really how you build dynaty league team you draft the guys and let them sit for 2-3 years and see what they become.Stafford (2nd)Rivers (3rd)Foster (5th)Bradshaw (4th)R-White (3rd)Marshall (3rd)V-Jackson (3rd)S-Smith Car (3rd)Hernandez (3rd)T-Young (4th)
Sabertooth
Footballguy
If you had to pick between Mcknight + Powell or Polk + Bryce Brown, who do you like? ALL 4 reside on my wire and I am thin at back.
Last edited by a moderator:
if i had to pick a combo, mcknight/powell. however, if i could pick any two, powell and brown
Sabertooth
Footballguy
and if you had to pick only one?
Instinctive
Footballguy
Brown for me - big fan of him.
ETA: Waldman has a couple of pieces on Brown I believe that are nice, and I think he's in a very good position in Philly - chance to take over some power duties from McCoy and in a split with Polk if McCoy goes down - plus I think he's got a lot of talent to be the guy in the future there.
ETA: Waldman has a couple of pieces on Brown I believe that are nice, and I think he's in a very good position in Philly - chance to take over some power duties from McCoy and in a split with Polk if McCoy goes down - plus I think he's got a lot of talent to be the guy in the future there.
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
I think I'd take the empty roster space over those guys.
Really though, I'd take the Philly backs, even though I think they're both overrated.McKnight is nothing but a return man/scat back and I don't think Powell is exceptional in any way.
Bryce Brown at least has some upside, although I think Dion Lewis is better.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I could certainly see the chance for someone to emerge there. Lewis is more akin to McCoy. Smallish guy. Brown and Polk at much bigger and I could see them having a role. While McCoy has been healthy, he isn't exactly build like Adrian Peterson.
gorf
Footballguy
a few years ago, several of the people who were regularly posting in this thread formed a new dynasty league. that league now has an opening, and i'd like to recruit from this thread if possible.
details: PPR league (0.5 PPR for RBs), fees are $25 plus MFL fees. the one thing that makes this league different from any other league i play in is that the league's playoffs coincide with the NFL playoffs, so if your team makes the playoffs, you have to make sure you have players on your roster on NFL playoff teams. that leads to a lot of interesting trading toward the end of the regular season. here's a link. if it makes a difference, the open team has some good players and 3 of the top 6 draft picks.
if you're interested, please send me a PM with your email address and a quick description of your dynasty experience.
edit: ok, i think we found our guy. thanks for the responses.
details: PPR league (0.5 PPR for RBs), fees are $25 plus MFL fees. the one thing that makes this league different from any other league i play in is that the league's playoffs coincide with the NFL playoffs, so if your team makes the playoffs, you have to make sure you have players on your roster on NFL playoff teams. that leads to a lot of interesting trading toward the end of the regular season. here's a link. if it makes a difference, the open team has some good players and 3 of the top 6 draft picks.
if you're interested, please send me a PM with your email address and a quick description of your dynasty experience.
edit: ok, i think we found our guy. thanks for the responses.
Last edited by a moderator:
Instinctive
Footballguy
Overcome with Assistant Coach crap
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
Fear and Loathing updated his rookie ranks. Pead and Wright with some big bumps. Quick ahead of Floyd and Miller ahead of Hillman.
New ones from August: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/41048/69/dynasty-rookie-ranks-update?pg=1
Old ones from May: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/40471/69/dynasty-rankings
New ones from August: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/41048/69/dynasty-rookie-ranks-update?pg=1
Old ones from May: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/40471/69/dynasty-rankings
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
Even if you like him you better be willing to wait. Not sure if Jackson is gonna give up his starting job easily even next season. He's in great shape at camp.
Dez
Footballguy
I wish he would do his rankings as PPR or have both.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I am torn on CJ Spiller and want to see what others think.
My initial instinct is to "sell". His big breakout came over the 2nd half of the season, when those tackling him where less fresh and more injured than him. The Bills ONLY gave him opportunity out of need and were even exploring his potential WR. There was even talk of CJ being #3, behind White, before Jackson went down. They were clearly not very high on him. Now, the camp talk is that there will be some kind of split, but that "some won't be happy about it." I don't know what that means, but I don't like that they have him returning punts.
Backs like Spiller are becoming more valuable, evident by the 2012 Draft (Wilson, Pead, Hilman, James, etc). The league is increasingly becoming a game of mismatches, and CJ Spiller provides that. Yet, again, my gut is still telling me to sell. I have no faith in the Bills staff to use Spiller the way they should have been for 2 years now. While he did well in a limited lead role, there is not enough for me to believe he is the replacement for Jackson, in all aspects, in the next year or two.
I think he is a wedge player this year, and an important guy to be pro-active with. If he is the future feature back, the time to buy is now. If he's not, and the Bills plan to use him as a return man with 6-8 touches a game, long term, the time to sell is now.
There is a lot of variance bewteen 2 very possible outcomes: 1,000+ total yards and 6-8 TDs vs. 600 total yards and 2-4 TDs.
Thoughts?
My initial instinct is to "sell". His big breakout came over the 2nd half of the season, when those tackling him where less fresh and more injured than him. The Bills ONLY gave him opportunity out of need and were even exploring his potential WR. There was even talk of CJ being #3, behind White, before Jackson went down. They were clearly not very high on him. Now, the camp talk is that there will be some kind of split, but that "some won't be happy about it." I don't know what that means, but I don't like that they have him returning punts.
Backs like Spiller are becoming more valuable, evident by the 2012 Draft (Wilson, Pead, Hilman, James, etc). The league is increasingly becoming a game of mismatches, and CJ Spiller provides that. Yet, again, my gut is still telling me to sell. I have no faith in the Bills staff to use Spiller the way they should have been for 2 years now. While he did well in a limited lead role, there is not enough for me to believe he is the replacement for Jackson, in all aspects, in the next year or two.
I think he is a wedge player this year, and an important guy to be pro-active with. If he is the future feature back, the time to buy is now. If he's not, and the Bills plan to use him as a return man with 6-8 touches a game, long term, the time to sell is now.
There is a lot of variance bewteen 2 very possible outcomes: 1,000+ total yards and 6-8 TDs vs. 600 total yards and 2-4 TDs.
Thoughts?
