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How would you rank those guys against the second tier QB's from this year's draft? Right now I like Tanehill better than Wilson, and Wilson better than Weeden, but I'm starting to think Wilson might be the best of the bunch. I would definitely say Wilson has the best supporting cast right now and could shine early. Long term might be a different story.
I am ranking them:WilsonTanehillWeedonI was distracted during the draft process, so I didn't have strong opinions of the 3 coming into the pre-season. But, Wilson is only guy that looks like he will be able to move the ball with any consistantly this year. He has better weapons than the other 2, and is in a better situation. On top of that, I am really starting to covet guys that can move the ball on the ground. 30 yards rushing a game is equal to 75 passing in most formats, or 8 additional TDs over a season.
I like the list. I am not a big Dalton fan, but nobody has much claim to be ahead of him. I like the call on Wilson over Locker. I don't know that I am ready to make it yet, but accuracy issues are something I try to avoid, and Locker has them.
Is A-Brown for Cobb still a good deal ?
Good list. I just would like to go on record as saying that the gap between Wilson and the tier above is only about an inch or two...
Put me in the group that didn't even give him a chance of being an NFL starter before the preseason, but he's really convinced me otherwise so far. He's incredibly poised for a rookie QB, he makes good decisions the large majority of the time. He's also extremely quick and fast, his ability to sprint downfield is exceptional, he's got running back speed and he's shown he knows when to use it. I will say he's gotten lucky on WRs making outstanding plays on some of the deep balls he's thrown in the preseason so far, but at least he putting the ball in areas for them to make plays. In fantasy and in real life, I'd easily take Wilson over Tannehill, I'd put Wilson in a tier by himself after Luck/RG3, and before Weeden/Tannehill.
Tannehill can move the ball with his legs, too. Guy played WR in college. Had a 1000 yard receiving season. Wilson's looked great, but at the end of the day, I still prefer the guy with the top 10 pedigree.Edit: and I want nothing to do with Weeden. He's already 28. I don't think he has much more development left in him- usually by 28 you are who you're going to be. Low upside, crummy franchise, shorter career... Pass. Give me a Foles or a Kaepernick, instead- I'd rather have a high-upside backup than a low-upside starter.
I'd put Foles in there somewhere and bump Gabbert up into the second tier.
Fair play. But Wilson has looked worlds better against pros, and has look to run more readily, too. I would feel pretty good about taking Wilson over Tanny, at this point.
Not exactly. He caught my attention when I was looking for sleeper picks after the draft, but I waited until after his week 2 preseason showing to actually pick him up in any leagues. IIRC he was injured for the start of camp, so the news on him was sparse at first.I'm not going to predict a superstar career for him, but there are some variables working in his favor. Jackson has more mileage than any RB in the NFL at this point. I think he will break down in the near future. I've never been high on Pead and his wretched preseason performances haven't changed my mind at all. Richardson is the next man in line and, judging by his usage in the most recent game, might actually have a chance to pass Pead on the depth chart immediately. He's a bit of a freak athlete, with a 40" vertical leap and 11'3" broad jump that compare pretty favorably with any RB in the league. The negatives are that he's undersized with a history of minor durability issues and only mediocre college production. I'd say the most likely outcome for his career is that he won't ever amount to anything significant, but given that he has some sneaky upside and that he's probably still on waivers in a lot of leagues, I'd say he warrants a roster spot if he's available.
Wilson has looked great back to his freshman year at NCSU. We known since April that Wilson got Flutie'd so it's time to make an exception for him. Blaine Gabbert has a top 10 pedigree and that means nada at this point. Tannehill is a project. Locker without the arm or the weapons. There's potential but if someone offered me Wilson straight up, I don't think you can turn it down at this point. In 1 year, the best case for Tannehill is Locker. Still intrigued. Still see the upside. Worst case is bust. Looks more skittish against real defense. Struggles to top 50% completion. Few if any wins. Best case for Wilson is top 10 dynasty QB. Worst case is Dalton. Good chance to be a long term NFL starter. Some downside and questions.
I probably agree with your take on Wilson and Tannehill, but I think you are a little off the mark here.Where a prospect was drafted is relevant when he's still finding his feet in the league.Look at a guy like Eli Manning. If you had judged him solely on his performance, you would've written him off as a complete bust after his rookie year. He was absolutely horrible. But the fact that he was Eli Manning and the former #1 overall pick suggested that he had a lot of talent despite his early struggles.I think similar logic offers reason to be optimistic about guys like Locker, Gabbert, and Tannehill, though I'm not personally very high on that trio. These three fall into the category of underachieving college QBs who were overdrafted for their physical tools, which is a type of QB that I try to avoid. All else being equal, I tend to favor guys like Luck, Griffin, Bradford, Foles, Mallett, and Wilson, who not only have good draft positions, but who also produced great results on the field in college.
I tend to agree with this. I think draft pedigree is somewhat mitigated when there is a clear bias that caused draft position to slide.I think some teams are already kicking themselves for not taking Wilson. Think about Miami or Cleveland using the Tannehill/Weeden picks on someone else and using their third rounder on Wilson, for example... it appears they would have come out well ahead.
I think a couple of preseason games is too small of a sample size to know that.'Just Win Baby said:
Too early to judge Tannehill, sure. But I think there is very good reason for increased optimism towards Wilson. I have no doubt that he would be drafted higher, if the draft were re-held today. The initial reaction to NFL competition is something I would think is very valuable. The fact that Wilson was not intimidated and looked like he belongs says a lot.
I don't know how a team can be convinced to draft a 28 year old 2nd tier QB prospect in the 1st round. Especially a team as far away as Cleveland.Chris Weinke in Cleveland should be fun to watch.But ya know they sure got a lotta picks for Julio Jones!!!
Desperation (after missing on RG3).Despite their non-sense that they weren't interested in RG3 (total bull#### that came out after they MISSED on RG3), they were all in there. Washington just outdid them.28 year old rookie QB in the 1st round. Un####ingbelievable. He'll make typical rookie mistakes this year. Then you're left saying next year 'well we got our now 29 year old developmental QB. Let's hope he continues to progress in 2013.'Again, they gave up Julio Jones for this 95 year old Weeden clown, Greg Little & I'm sure someone else can chime in with what else. I'll take the future All-Pro stud at WR that already looks like one of the league's best.I don't know how a team can be convinced to draft a 28 year old 2nd tier QB prospect in the 1st round. Especially a team as far away as Cleveland.Chris Weinke in Cleveland should be fun to watch.But ya know they sure got a lotta picks for Julio Jones!!!
Stay calm. Stay the course. One mediocre (not even bad) game with those clowns at QB does not erase one top 5 season with those clowns at QB. He may be getting older, but he's still on the right side of 30. If he's still not producing after 4-6 weeks, then it's time to reevaluate.
I personally don't value him as top 5 anymore - recent realization. I got an offer of my Cruz and 1st, for his Fitz. I realized that I liked Cruz more, straight up. I think he is right outside of the top 5, but would even take a younger, less proven and productive Dez Bryant over Fitz, in a vacuum. I am a big believer in maximizing career VBD, and Fitz's age is officially on the wrong side of the baseline. Couple that with 1-2 more years of the Cards finding an solid QB - it's time to move on, in my opinion.
He is likely top 12, right now. I personally don't trust it, yet. I like Ridley and think he is fully capable of being the guy for the Patriots. I just don't trust the Patriots, yet. If Vereen never amounts to a legit threat, I think someone eventually will. I think they drafted Vereen and Ridley so close together, thinking they would both have roles; is see that coming to fruition. As an owner, I am looking to ride him for the near future - potentially even this season - but will eventually be looking to sell.
Thanks, EBF. Maybe I'll wait 6 weeks to offer. I just worry that injury will cause him to be in the mix, and it will be too late. But you're right - that's not a good sign.'EBF said:
I want nothing to do with Johnson. But this is certainly the time to buy. You have to think he turns it around at some point.'yanos said:
I like DR's long term possibilities in St. Louis. Trent is still much more talented - but Daryl is no slouch and should be a starting RB in he NFL sooner than some people think.
Your QB discussion was missing someone I was sure you were going touch on: Matt Ryan. IMHO, he might be finally taking that step from "very good" to "elite" FF territory - with the aid of the new offense - and he's still only 27. The offense, since incorporating the no huddle and faster style seems to really be hitting it's stride. Right now he has the best QB rating of all the starters in the league and his TD/INT ratio is 8/1. He's completing 72% of his passes, despite a decent 7.4 yards/attempt. He's even running a little bit. While it's only been 3 weeks, it seem like the proverbial light bulb has come on - or perhaps it's always been on, but the old OC kept a shade on it. Thoughts on Ryan? Honestly, I would at least have him even with Stafford.
I would have him slightly behind Stafford for 3 reasons, Detroit has a horrible defense, Detroit can't run the ball (Please don't give me the Leshoure had 100 yards last week, he needed 26 carries and the Titans defense is horrible), and he is 3 years younger. However, if Detroit continues to try to run, and Stafford has 3 or 4 sub par games, while Ryan keeps doing what he is doing I will have Ryan higher than Stafford.
I agree 100%, can get a huge haul right now and all his metrics point downward the past two seasons. Also, I don't like what I see on gameday as much either. Get the ransom now and spread the risk.
Depending on situation, of course. I woudln't cost myself a chance at a championship - but I agree as well.
I hate to say this - because he might be the most uniquely talented skill player in the NFL - but I would be looking to move Calvin too.As owners, we can't afford for Calvin to come back to earth. The WR field is very deep AND top heavy. The difference bewteen Calvin and guys like Cruz, Julio, Green is not as big as name value, and price to acquire suggests. Finishing top 5-10 for the next 5 years isn't enough. If that is what he is going to provide - if last year was an outlier, at all - we need to move him while he has top 3 dynasty player value.He might be the #1 sell in all of dynasty FF right now.
especially if you hate winning.
I think the "situation depending" tag is assumed. If I could get a major offer, say DMC/Forte/Charles + Harvin/Wallace (And I don't think that is out of the question), I would look to make that deal. Also, I would be happy to get ANY kind of value in addition to LeSean McCoy for him, if I was looking for a straight up deal. PPR, of course.especially if you hate winning.
I'm not saying give him away. I'm saying trade him for a superstar just entering his prime (and maybe get some picks thrown in if possible). A guy like Trent Richardson or Demaryius Thomas can also help you win right now, and has a better long term outlook. There comes a point in a player's career (around 27-28 for RBs) when he becomes very hard to trade for fair value. He might still produce for a few years beyond that threshold, but you will no longer be able to move him for an equivalent star, and you'll be stuck with a hole in your lineup when he finally falls off a cliff. It might not be worth risking a trade if you think it means the difference between contending and not contending, but if you can stomach the risk then this is the best time to sell.especially if you hate winning.
