Dynasty Rankings (5 Viewers)

Martin has risen too far too fast. I know he's looked GREAT the last two weeks, but it's too small a sample size to suddenly vault him into the top 5...should be middle of tier 3. Morris is another that has shot too far up the boards too quickly...we aren't even 100% certain he'll keep the starting gig going into next year...I would put him last on this list.

I agree with the last poster that Lynch might be undervalued a little in your quick ranking, and add that Forte might belong in the bottom of your second tier. I do like your top tier, although there's so much uncertainty and poor line play in Philly right now I'd probably drop McCoy to the bottom of tier 1 instead of leaving him at the top, plus Brown is getting more touches and seems to have plenty of talent.

'Concept Coop said:

I did a quick non-PPR top 10+ RB ranking, due to a trade I am working on. Wanted some thoughts:McCoyFosterRichardsonRiceMartinPeterson - I don't think him and Martin can be in a different tier than the above 4Charles - Depends on the team, if you're in win now mode moving him for a Marshawn or Forte makes sense, if you're playing for next year wait it out or buy is the moveSpiller - similar story as Charles, but I am more confident he finishes strongLynchMurray - continued health issues, this is too high, needs to be lumped in with DMC and MJDMorris - no commentForteMatthews McFaddenMJDRidley - him and Morris need to be ranked together, whether that's higher or lower depends on the owner's p.o.v. Both are playing well, but are in historically volatile situations and haven't earned a long term role. Yet, anyway.

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I think Reggie Bush needs to be ranked above Murray/DMC/MJD, only one I feel strongly about. There's others I like more (notably J Stew and LeShoure) but it's close, just depends on your comfort level.

'renesauz said:

Martin has risen too far too fast. I know he's looked GREAT the last two weeks, but it's too small a sample size to suddenly vault him into the top 5...should be middle of tier 3. Morris is another that has shot too far up the boards too quickly...we aren't even 100% certain he'll keep the starting gig going into next year...I would put him last on this list.I agree with the last poster that Lynch might be undervalued a little in your quick ranking, and add that Forte might belong in the bottom of your second tier. I do like your top tier, although there's so much uncertainty and poor line play in Philly right now I'd probably drop McCoy to the bottom of tier 1 instead of leaving him at the top, plus Brown is getting more touches and seems to have plenty of talent.

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I agree on the Martin part, but I feel you have to take market value into consideration. If I owned Martin, I would be looking to "downgrade" from him to guys who aren't as sexy right now. I would love for an owner to give me a reason to take Charles, Lynch or Peterson over Martin. But in a startup, I think I'd have to take the younger, sexier Martin, and look to take advantage of the value he has today. I am not crowning him a top 5 talent right now, like some have. I just think that's where his value dictates. As for McCoy, I see your points. I just have to think that the situation can get so much better than it has been. I think he has the best combination of youth/talent/production(track record)/health. I wouldn't blame anyone for taking anyone in the first tier over him, however. As for Lynch, I'd take Spiller and Charles over him based on potential. Both are younger, and both have more room for improve on what they have done this season, based on situation. I really think Lynch's situation is perfect for him. He needs the steady carries, as he isn't a major threat out of the backfield. As a Lynch owner, I like that Seattle relies on him so much, and view his situation as a major plus. I don't see the same potential in Lynch, that I see in Charles and Spiller, who are both major weapons out of the blackfield.

'renesauz said:

Martin has risen too far too fast. I know he's looked GREAT the last two weeks, but it's too small a sample size to suddenly vault him into the top 5...should be middle of tier 3. Morris is another that has shot too far up the boards too quickly...we aren't even 100% certain he'll keep the starting gig going into next year...I would put him last on this list.I agree with the last poster that Lynch might be undervalued a little in your quick ranking, and add that Forte might belong in the bottom of your second tier. I do like your top tier, although there's so much uncertainty and poor line play in Philly right now I'd probably drop McCoy to the bottom of tier 1 instead of leaving him at the top, plus Brown is getting more touches and seems to have plenty of talent.

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I totally agree with this. I'm not sure how 2 games have caused everyone to suddenly vault him over several more established players. Literally 2 weeks ago, he was buried solidly in tier 3 or 4 for most people and now after 2 games he is a top 5 or top 6 commodity and being viewed as a potential 1st round pick in startups? What happens if he goes out this week and has 45 yards on 18 carries (a distinct possibility for any player)? Does he fall backwards again? The general sentiment on Martin is a little too reactionary for my taste (this is certainly not directed at any one person, as most everyone seems to be rocketing him up rankings). This is also a separate statement from my view on Martin, as I REALLY like him and have had him way up my rankings since the start of the season (but have not moved him up or adjusted my thinking on him since the last 2 games, as I was already ranking him at or near that level)

'Herm23 said:

'renesauz said:

Martin has risen too far too fast. I know he's looked GREAT the last two weeks, but it's too small a sample size to suddenly vault him into the top 5...should be middle of tier 3. Morris is another that has shot too far up the boards too quickly...we aren't even 100% certain he'll keep the starting gig going into next year...I would put him last on this list.I agree with the last poster that Lynch might be undervalued a little in your quick ranking, and add that Forte might belong in the bottom of your second tier. I do like your top tier, although there's so much uncertainty and poor line play in Philly right now I'd probably drop McCoy to the bottom of tier 1 instead of leaving him at the top, plus Brown is getting more touches and seems to have plenty of talent.

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I totally agree with this. I'm not sure how 2 games have caused everyone to suddenly vault him over several more established players. Literally 2 weeks ago, he was buried solidly in tier 3 or 4 for most people and now after 2 games he is a top 5 or top 6 commodity and being viewed as a potential 1st round pick in startups? What happens if he goes out this week and has 45 yards on 18 carries (a distinct possibility for any player)? Does he fall backwards again? The general sentiment on Martin is a little too reactionary for my taste (this is certainly not directed at any one person, as most everyone seems to be rocketing him up rankings). This is also a separate statement from my view on Martin, as I REALLY like him and have had him way up my rankings since the start of the season (but have not moved him up or adjusted my thinking on him since the last 2 games, as I was already ranking him at or near that level)

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I had Martin lumped in with Spiller, Reggie Bush, Marshawn, DMC, MJD, and Murray a few weeks ago. Since then 3 of them have gotten hurt, Mathews has become an issue, and Martin blew up. Bumping him over all of them is justifiable. Him vs. Charles vs. Forte vs. Spiller vs. Marshawn is still an interesting argument. Personally, I trend towards youth when I am as confident in their abilities as I am with Martin which is why I have him firmly at #6 on my RB dyno board.

I think you have to put Martin's ascent in the context of a weak overall dynasty RB picture.

There simply aren't a lot of workhorse RBs entering their prime right now.

A lot of the alternatives are either:

A.) Getting old.

B.) Not reliable because of workload/durability/consistency issues.

C.) Simply not good enough to justify taking that high.

I have Martin at #4 and would probably have a hard time trading him for anyone besides Richardson. One thing I've learned from FF over the years is not to over-think things when a budding star announces himself like this, especially at RB. The guy is young, has a great pedigree, has excellent tools, has a crystal clear path to 20+ weekly touches, is producing great stats, and looks like the real deal. There's nothing missing here. Worst case scenario is that he regresses to become something like Marshawn Lynch. High floor. High ceiling. Buy/hold.

What does everybody think about hillman and david wilson which rookie has more fantasy dynasty value as of now?

'Herm23 said:

I totally agree with this. I'm not sure how 2 games have caused everyone to suddenly vault him over several more established players. Literally 2 weeks ago, he was buried solidly in tier 3 or 4 for most people and now after 2 games he is a top 5 or top 6 commodity and being viewed as a potential 1st round pick in startups? What happens if he goes out this week and has 45 yards on 18 carries (a distinct possibility for any player)? Does he fall backwards again? The general sentiment on Martin is a little too reactionary for my taste (this is certainly not directed at any one person, as most everyone seems to be rocketing him up rankings). This is also a separate statement from my view on Martin, as I REALLY like him and have had him way up my rankings since the start of the season (but have not moved him up or adjusted my thinking on him since the last 2 games, as I was already ranking him at or near that level)

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It's been 4 or 5 games now. But trust me, I'm with you. But try trading for him and see what you get. He is one of the few top RB under 24 years old. He is getting a lions share, and getting GL/3rd down work. He was a first round pick, and is coming off one of the biggest fantasy days ever. I don't think top 5 is an issue, and wouldn't move him for anyone below him on my list. I would be looking to upgrade or downgrade for pieces.

'The Fantasy Chef said:

What does everybody think about hillman and david wilson which rookie has more fantasy dynasty value as of now?

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Wilson by a mile for me. The only things I like about Hillman are his situation and his draft slot. He doesn't pop for me when I watch him play. I do think he'll have value by default if he becomes the starter in Denver, but I'm not one of his fans. I've never been too high on Wilson either, but he has some advantages over Hillman. He has a better draft profile and is a vastly superior athlete, with speed/explosiveness that places him in elite company. I don't think he's a very instinctive runner and his frame could be bigger, but I like him more than Hillman. Bradshaw isn't as old as McGahee, but he's not exactly been the picture of durability. All in all, I'd rather have the 1st rounder on the Giants than the 3rd rounder on the Broncos. I do see Hillman having the better 2013 outlook based on opportunity though. Willis is OLD...

'EBF said:

'The Fantasy Chef said:

What does everybody think about hillman and david wilson which rookie has more fantasy dynasty value as of now?

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Wilson by a mile for me. The only things I like about Hillman are his situation and his draft slot. He doesn't pop for me when I watch him play. I do think he'll have value by default if he becomes the starter in Denver, but I'm not one of his fans. I've never been too high on Wilson either, but he has some advantages over Hillman. He has a better draft profile and is a vastly superior athlete, with speed/explosiveness that places him in elite company. I don't think he's a very instinctive runner and his frame could be bigger, but I like him more than Hillman. Bradshaw isn't as old as McGahee, but he's not exactly been the picture of durability. All in all, I'd rather have the 1st rounder on the Giants than the 3rd rounder on the Broncos. I do see Hillman having the better 2013 outlook based on opportunity though. Willis is OLD...

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Hey EBF (and others) - where would you slot your boy Daryl Richardson into this? And what about Lamar Miller? I think we all saw Miller's talent pop when he got opportunities, but supposedly he's struggled with learning the playbook, pass protection, and being third on the depth chart (much like Wilson). Miami's got an emerging offense though, can clearly run the ball, has the QB in place, and should bring on a stud WR for 2013...So where do Miller and DR fit?

'Concept Coop said:

As for Lynch, I'd take Spiller and Charles over him based on potential. Both are younger, and both have more room for improve on what they have done this season, based on situation. I really think Lynch's situation is perfect for him. He needs the steady carries, as he isn't a major threat out of the backfield. As a Lynch owner, I like that Seattle relies on him so much, and view his situation as a major plus. I don't see the same potential in Lynch, that I see in Charles and Spiller, who are both major weapons out of the blackfield.

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your rankings are for non-PPR though and, as a result, it comes down to touches. 1. lynch isn't catching the ball but he is featured throughout the game. 2. spiller certainly isn't and won't with the versatile fredjax in the stable.3. charles could be featured but he's playing on the worst team in the league. they need so much help that it could wasting his best years with them.lynch might not have the ceiling that these two guys have but his floor much higher.

'JFS171 said:

'EBF said:

'The Fantasy Chef said:

What does everybody think about hillman and david wilson which rookie has more fantasy dynasty value as of now?

Click to expand...

Wilson by a mile for me. The only things I like about Hillman are his situation and his draft slot. He doesn't pop for me when I watch him play. I do think he'll have value by default if he becomes the starter in Denver, but I'm not one of his fans. I've never been too high on Wilson either, but he has some advantages over Hillman. He has a better draft profile and is a vastly superior athlete, with speed/explosiveness that places him in elite company. I don't think he's a very instinctive runner and his frame could be bigger, but I like him more than Hillman. Bradshaw isn't as old as McGahee, but he's not exactly been the picture of durability. All in all, I'd rather have the 1st rounder on the Giants than the 3rd rounder on the Broncos. I do see Hillman having the better 2013 outlook based on opportunity though. Willis is OLD...

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Hey EBF (and others) - where would you slot your boy Daryl Richardson into this? And what about Lamar Miller? I think we all saw Miller's talent pop when he got opportunities, but supposedly he's struggled with learning the playbook, pass protection, and being third on the depth chart (much like Wilson). Miami's got an emerging offense though, can clearly run the ball, has the QB in place, and should bring on a stud WR for 2013...So where do Miller and DR fit?

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Probably this for me...WilsonRichardsonHillmanMillerMiller is okay, but I'm not sold that he's better than Thomas. Hillman and Richardson is close for me. Similar outlooks for 2013+. Hillman in a better situation. He is not LeSean McCoy, but could be a thrift store version if used properly. Richardson looks like the better talent, but doesn't necessarily project as en every down back. Tough call. I probably favor Richardson, but I could see Hillman lapping him next year.

'saintfool said:

your rankings are for non-PPR though and, as a result, it comes down to touches. 1. lynch isn't catching the ball but he is featured throughout the game. 2. spiller certainly isn't and won't with the versatile fredjax in the stable.3. charles could be featured but he's playing on the worst team in the league. they need so much help that it could wasting his best years with them.lynch might not have the ceiling that these two guys have but his floor much higher.

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It comes down to raw production in yards and scores. Both do more than Lynch, per carry. And when you change that to per touch, it is much more. I agree Lynch is safer, but we have to weigh that with the ceiling. I can see 1,300/8 640/4 for Charles and Spiller. Lynch would need to match that (almost)all on the ground. Look at what Foster has been able to do, even in standard leagues, by being used out of the backfield at a high rate; Rice too. I think Charles and Spiller can too.

My rankings in May were

Wilson

Miller

Hillman

---

Richardson

I think Rochardson is still 4th in line, but the gap is now much closer. Not much has changed with the other 3 though. I did not expect Wilson to translate his game quickly, he had way too many holes and needs time to develop. He's in a great situation to take off though as more impatient franchises would throw the towel on him quicker and in his case that's not the correct way to handle him. It'll take time but if he's going to get it he will do it on that team. I still keep him a nose above Miller because Miller has not overcome his issues either - football IQ lacks tremendously and he's still making too many mental mistakes on the field. I am more confident Hillman has a successful career than Wilson and Miller, but his physical upside just pales in comparison. At Hillman's best, he's a meh RB1 and a good RB2 - the other 2 have elite talent potential - and acquiring those guys before they breakout is how you build a dominant team. I would rather gamble on them, despite me being more comfortable with Hillman right now.

Jacquizz Rodgers and Isaac Redman have more fantasy points than Jonathan Stewart to date this season. That's pretty bad.

'ctrlaltdefeat said:

Jacquizz Rodgers and Isaac Redman have more fantasy points than Jonathan Stewart to date this season. That's pretty bad.

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everyone let that sink in for a minute..........

'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

'ctrlaltdefeat said:

Jacquizz Rodgers and Isaac Redman have more fantasy points than Jonathan Stewart to date this season. That's pretty bad.

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everyone let that sink in for a minute..........

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Stewart averaging more FP per game than Quizz, but still a sad statement about Stewart.

'jeter23 said:

'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

'ctrlaltdefeat said:

Jacquizz Rodgers and Isaac Redman have more fantasy points than Jonathan Stewart to date this season. That's pretty bad.

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everyone let that sink in for a minute..........

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Stewart averaging more FP per game than Quizz, but still a sad statement about Stewart.

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Is that a sad statement about Stewart, or about the way the Carolina coaching staff has chosen to use him? (Or both?)

'Onions said:

'jeter23 said:

'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

'ctrlaltdefeat said:

Jacquizz Rodgers and Isaac Redman have more fantasy points than Jonathan Stewart to date this season. That's pretty bad.

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everyone let that sink in for a minute..........

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Stewart averaging more FP per game than Quizz, but still a sad statement about Stewart.

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Is that a sad statement about Stewart, or about the way the Carolina coaching staff has chosen to use him? (Or both?)

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Frankly, I think Carolina is under utilizing both of their talented backs.

'DoubleG said:

'Onions said:

'jeter23 said:

'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

'ctrlaltdefeat said:

Jacquizz Rodgers and Isaac Redman have more fantasy points than Jonathan Stewart to date this season. That's pretty bad.

Click to expand...

everyone let that sink in for a minute..........

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Stewart averaging more FP per game than Quizz, but still a sad statement about Stewart.

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Is that a sad statement about Stewart, or about the way the Carolina coaching staff has chosen to use him? (Or both?)

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Frankly, I think Carolina is under utilizing both of their talented backs.

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He's averaging 50 yards a game the past 2 1/2 years and has a total of 6 TDs from 2010-2012. Meh.

'jeter23 said:

'DoubleG said:

'Onions said:

'jeter23 said:

'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

'ctrlaltdefeat said:

Jacquizz Rodgers and Isaac Redman have more fantasy points than Jonathan Stewart to date this season. That's pretty bad.

Click to expand...

everyone let that sink in for a minute..........

Click to expand...

Stewart averaging more FP per game than Quizz, but still a sad statement about Stewart.

Click to expand...

Is that a sad statement about Stewart, or about the way the Carolina coaching staff has chosen to use him? (Or both?)

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Frankly, I think Carolina is under utilizing both of their talented backs.

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He's averaging 50 yards a game the past 2 1/2 years and has a total of 6 TDs from 2010-2012. Meh.

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Helpful. Those stats definitely tell the whole story.

'jeter23 said:

He's averaging 50 yards a game the past 2 1/2 years and has a total of 6 TDs from 2010-2012. Meh.

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You might want to recheck those numbers.

'SSOG said:

'jeter23 said:

He's averaging 50 yards a game the past 2 1/2 years and has a total of 6 TDs from 2010-2012. Meh.

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You might want to recheck those numbers.

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2010- 14 games, 770 yards = 55 ypg2011- 16 games, 761 yards = 47.5 ypg2012- 6 games, 235 yards = 39 ypgTotal- 36 games, 1,766 yards = 49 ypg

I am guessing that he wants you to include the receving yardage and receiving TDs.

'duaneok66 said:

I am guessing that he wants you to include the receving yardage and receiving TDs.

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Or, as they're otherwise known, "yards and touchdowns".Edit: I don't get what people see in Darren Sproles. Did you know that in his year and a half in New Orleans, he only has 720 yards and 2 TDs?

'SSOG said:

'duaneok66 said:

I am guessing that he wants you to include the receving yardage and receiving TDs.

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Or, as they're otherwise known, "yards and touchdowns".Edit: I don't get what people see in Darren Sproles. Did you know that in his year and a half in New Orleans, he only has 720 yards and 2 TDs?

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Including receiving yards and TDs moves him up to 66 yards per game with a total of 9 TDs in 2 1/2 years. We're talking 10 fantasy points per game over the last 36 games. I have always been a fan and believer in Stewart's talent, but that is starting to fade. Like the above poster, I think much of it has to do with coaching staff and management in Carolina, but those excuses are starting to get old.

If people are bailing on Stewart then this might be the best time to buy in his career. He is one of the most talented RBs in the league.

Beating a dead horse at this point, but really wouldn't advocate selling this guy low right now. Tons of downside.

'EBF said:

If people are bailing on Stewart then this might be the best time to buy in his career. He is one of the most talented RBs in the league. Beating a dead horse at this point, but really wouldn't advocate selling this guy low right now. Tons of downside.

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Exactly. People are letting the past influence their judgment of the future. Imagine a hypothetical scenario: let's say that there's a super-talented RB who plays for an eccentric GM. Let's say the GM decides before every season he will flip a coin, and if it comes up heads, he will feature that RB for the rest of his career. Lots of people would be high on him his first season. If the first coin flip came up tails, lots of people would be high on him his second season. If the flip came up tails again, lots of people would be high on him his third season. Sure, at that point, some people would be saying "everyone overrated him, they thought he'd be a starter by now, I'm getting rid of him". Those people would be making a mistake- they'd be confusing past results with future prospects. Jonathan Stewart has faced a lot of coin flips so far in his career. They've all come up tails. That's unfortunate, but it does not mean his supporters were wrong for liking him before those coin flips, and it does not mean all future coin flips will continue to come up tails.

Yea, just watch the guy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XauVYWiSGk0

How many backs in the NFL are better than this guy right now? You can probably count them on one or two hands.

It's not his fault that his lunatic GM tied up tons of cap money in two RBs (completely out of touch with today's NFL). I still think there's time for a revival. The guy is what...25? Similar talents like Steven Jackson and Ricky Williams have aged really well. Guys like Turner and McGahee are still out there churning out yards. I wouldn't put it past Stewart to play at a high level for another 4-6 years. He will get starter touches at some point.

Worth reiterating: PFF graded Stewart as the most elusive RB in the league over the last 3 years.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/07/01/three-years-of-the-elusive-rating/

I kind of want to gauge the value of the lower 30 year old struggling QB for Dynasty.

Romo

Vick

Eli

Rivers

Big Ben

They all seem to be in that low end starter / high end backup range right now. Draft pick wise, what would you accept for one of them and are any of them really looking like good buy lows right now?

'Max Power said:

I kind of want to gauge the value of the lower 30 year old struggling QB for Dynasty.RomoVickEliRiversBig BenThey all seem to be in that low end starter / high end backup range right now. Draft pick wise, what would you accept for one of them and are any of them really looking like good buy lows right now?

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Ben's struggling? On pace for 4400 yards and 30 TDs.

i think that all those guys have very little trade value.

'fruity pebbles said:

'Max Power said:

I kind of want to gauge the value of the lower 30 year old struggling QB for Dynasty.RomoVickEliRiversBig BenThey all seem to be in that low end starter / high end backup range right now. Draft pick wise, what would you accept for one of them and are any of them really looking like good buy lows right now?

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Ben's struggling? On pace for 4400 yards and 30 TDs.

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Are you buying him for a top 10 price?

'Max Power said:

'fruity pebbles said:

'Max Power said:

I kind of want to gauge the value of the lower 30 year old struggling QB for Dynasty.RomoVickEliRiversBig BenThey all seem to be in that low end starter / high end backup range right now. Draft pick wise, what would you accept for one of them and are any of them really looking like good buy lows right now?

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Ben's struggling? On pace for 4400 yards and 30 TDs.

Click to expand...

Are you buying him for a top 10 price?

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I think they would be currently valued in this order:BenEliRomoVickRiversI think Ben/Eli would still cost at least a 1st, but the others could be had for less than a 1st in most leagues.

'Max Power said:

'fruity pebbles said:

'Max Power said:

I kind of want to gauge the value of the lower 30 year old struggling QB for Dynasty.RomoVickEliRiversBig BenThey all seem to be in that low end starter / high end backup range right now. Draft pick wise, what would you accept for one of them and are any of them really looking like good buy lows right now?

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Ben's struggling? On pace for 4400 yards and 30 TDs.

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Are you buying him for a top 10 price?

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I would, all day long. Not a top 5 guy by any stretch, but after the uberstuds (Rodgers, Brees) and the young guns (Griffin, Luck, Newton, Stafford, Ryan) are off the board, who are you going with? Brady and Manning are great, but 5+ years older. Freeman? Tannehill? Flacco? Dalton? I trust Ben in my starting lineup much more than any of them over the next 3-5 years.

'jeter23 said:

'Max Power said:

'fruity pebbles said:

'Max Power said:

I kind of want to gauge the value of the lower 30 year old struggling QB for Dynasty.RomoVickEliRiversBig BenThey all seem to be in that low end starter / high end backup range right now. Draft pick wise, what would you accept for one of them and are any of them really looking like good buy lows right now?

Click to expand...

Ben's struggling? On pace for 4400 yards and 30 TDs.

Click to expand...

Are you buying him for a top 10 price?

Click to expand...

I think they would be currently valued in this order:BenEliRomoVickRiversI think Ben/Eli would still cost at least a 1st, but the others could be had for less than a 1st in most leagues.

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Thanks for the reply, I know every league is different... In one league I offered Ben for an early second and was shot down, in another I offered an early second for Rivers and was denied. Just for reference, in both of these leagues the other owner either had a clearly better or clearly worse option at QB. Which is what lead to my questioning of how much a mid-level QB is worth...

'SSOG said:

'Max Power said:

'fruity pebbles said:

'Max Power said:

I kind of want to gauge the value of the lower 30 year old struggling QB for Dynasty.RomoVickEliRiversBig BenThey all seem to be in that low end starter / high end backup range right now. Draft pick wise, what would you accept for one of them and are any of them really looking like good buy lows right now?

Click to expand...

Ben's struggling? On pace for 4400 yards and 30 TDs.

Click to expand...

Are you buying him for a top 10 price?

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I would, all day long. Not a top 5 guy by any stretch, but after the uberstuds (Rodgers, Brees) and the young guns (Griffin, Luck, Newton, Stafford, Ryan) are off the board, who are you going with? Brady and Manning are great, but 5+ years older. Freeman? Tannehill? Flacco? Dalton? I trust Ben in my starting lineup much more than any of them over the next 3-5 years.

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I wish more people shared your optimism for Ben. Seems like most owners are happy with the Freemans, Flaccos, Daltons, Fitzpatricks, Culters of the world, and they aren't willing to pay anything for the upgrade. These high end #2 QBs almost seem untradeable

'jeter23 said:

'Max Power said:

'fruity pebbles said:

'Max Power said:

I kind of want to gauge the value of the lower 30 year old struggling QB for Dynasty.RomoVickEliRiversBig BenThey all seem to be in that low end starter / high end backup range right now. Draft pick wise, what would you accept for one of them and are any of them really looking like good buy lows right now?

Click to expand...

Ben's struggling? On pace for 4400 yards and 30 TDs.

Click to expand...

Are you buying him for a top 10 price?

Click to expand...

I think they would be currently valued in this order:BenEliRomoVickRiversI think Ben/Eli would still cost at least a 1st, but the others could be had for less than a 1st in most leagues.

Click to expand...

If this is the consensus, Rivers is the clear buy low here. He is roughly 1.5 years younger than Romo and Vick.Not sure why anyone would prefer Vick. Rivers finished ahead of Vick last year and essentially tied with him in Vick's career year in 2010. Vick is older, injury prone, and may be out of a job this season or after this season.I guess it comes down to whether or not one thinks this season is an outlier for Rivers or a sign of how he will perform going forward. While last year was a bad year for Rivers, he still finished as QB8, well ahead of both Vick and Roethlisberger.IMO there is nowhere to go but up in terms of OL, receiving targets, and playcalling. Hopefully, both A.J. Smith and Norv Turner will be fired after this season, and things will start improving.(All ranks based on FBG scoring.)

If I didn't have RG3 and Luck I would have targeted Roethlisberger preseason, I'm glad the rookies stepped up so quickly because it allowed me to jump ship from Romo and Rivers before their respective values tanked.

Right now, if I were in the hunt but were sitting on a Vick/Cutler/Schaub/Tannehill like combo I would target Ben then Romo as a fix.

'MAC_32 said:

If I didn't have RG3 and Luck I would have targeted Roethlisberger preseason, I'm glad the rookies stepped up so quickly because it allowed me to jump ship from Romo and Rivers before their respective values tanked.Right now, if I were in the hunt but were sitting on a Vick/Cutler/Schaub/Tannehill like combo I would target Ben then Romo as a fix.

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I think a lot of owners would thinkg like this... But enough to trade your late second for? This is where it gets messy....

So where is everyone on the whole RG3 vs Andrew Luck conversation?

Ive got both in a keeper League but can eaily move one for a guy like arian foster (wouldnt be able to keep him, but foster would help me considerably in playoffs).

My opinion:

I think theyre both excellent QBs but in vastly different ways.

RG3 has a great arm and athleticsm, but i can see his situation becoming ripe for injury. QBs that scramble often take bad hits, and based off his injury earlier this year, he has to learn to just throw the ball away. Still, hes an exciting guy to watch, but im nervous owning him. Redskins have no draft in 2013, so theyre going to need to signa big free agent WR to give RG3 a true weapon.

Andrew Luck was the most hyped QB draft pick in a long time, and we now know why. The colts are winning with Luck under center, and he looks great out there. His stats are very decent, but we have yet to see a consistent level of fantasy play. With Wayne getting older, im not sure if Luck is going to regress until they find another stud receiver, or if hes the type of QB that will make his WRs better. A big plus is playing in that dome.

I think, if healthy, RG3 may deliver slightly better stats. But if you want to sleep well at night, Luck may have the longest and better football career. Luck is the better dynasty/keeper play.

thoughts?

'tenjack said:

So where is everyone on the whole RG3 vs Andrew Luck conversation?

Ive got both in a keeper League but can eaily move one for a guy like arian foster (wouldnt be able to keep him, but foster would help me considerably in playoffs).

My opinion:

I think theyre both excellent QBs but in vastly different ways.

RG3 has a great arm and athleticsm, but i can see his situation becoming ripe for injury. QBs that scramble often take bad hits, and based off his injury earlier this year, he has to learn to just throw the ball away. Still, hes an exciting guy to watch, but im nervous owning him. Redskins have no draft in 2013, so theyre going to need to signa big free agent WR to give RG3 a true weapon.

Andrew Luck was the most hyped QB draft pick in a long time, and we now know why. The colts are winning with Luck under center, and he looks great out there. His stats are very decent, but we have yet to see a consistent level of fantasy play. With Wayne getting older, im not sure if Luck is going to regress until they find another stud receiver, or if hes the type of QB that will make his WRs better. A big plus is playing in that dome.

I think, if healthy, RG3 may deliver slightly better stats. But if you want to sleep well at night, Luck may have the longest and better football career. Luck is the better dynasty/keeper play.

thoughts?

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Won't RGIII get Garcon and Fred Davis back? That should help.

Not sure if garçon can ever really be a wr1 in Washington. His injury concerns me as I now question his durability in a more physical offense. Davis is a fine player, but I'm not sure rg3 will have legit weapons until 2014. To stay healthy he will have to dial back the runs which limits fantasy upside. I felt the same way about cam last year.

Btw, my qb dynasty rankings are:

1. Rodgers

2. Brees

3. Ryan

4. Luck

5. Stafford

6. Brady

7. RG3

8. Freeman

9. Newton

10. Eli Manning

'tenjack said:

Not sure if garçon can ever really be a wr1 in Washington. His injury concerns me as I now question his durability in a more physical offense. Davis is a fine player, but I'm not sure rg3 will have legit weapons until 2014. To stay healthy he will have to dial back the runs which limits fantasy upside. I felt the same way about cam last year.

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Except Cam didn't really dial back the runs. On pace for 629 this year, got 700 last year. Not a huge difference. The only difference is TDs. And it's not utilization really. Panthers averaged 25.4 pts per game last year (5th) and 18.1 pts this year (27th). Just an overall worse offense for a hodge podge of reasons.Washington is averaging 25.1 pts per game this year with a lot of injuries/holes on their defense. The offense could revert if the defense is more competitive. Or he could become an elite passer. If he does become an elite passer, then Garcon, Davis, Hankerson, and scrap heap guys like Briscoe are enough.

I would rank Luck and Griffin as the #2 and #3 dynasty QBs respectively. I'm not taking a 33+ year old Brees or Brady over either of these guys. And while I think Matt Ryan is a solid QB1, I don't see him as a top three guy annually. Both of the rookies look like potential superstars. Griffin actually has the better passing stats right now, but he's trending downward whereas Luck has had his best three passing games in his last three outings.

I think Luck will suffer when Wayne retires, but bear in mind that the rest of his supporting cast is dreadful. Donnie Avery was on the scrap heap before the Colts resurrected his career. Fleener, Hilton, and Allen are rookies. The o-line is probably average at best. And the running back stable is well below average. Ballard, Brown, and Carter are serviceable, but nowhere near ideal. None of them should be starting in the NFL. I think Luck is already showing that he can elevate the play of his supporting cast. And he's doing this as a rookie with really only one legitimate weapon. Some of the success is due to the soft schedule that the Colts have been playing, but even the guy still deserves a lot of credit. He appears to be as good as advertised and should only improve with experience.

I think Griffin's early success was partially due to the unique problems that his skill set gives defenses. There is nobody in the league besides Vick who has this combination of rocket arm and speed. I would expect him to cool off a little bit as teams continue to figure out how to cope with his unique style, but I think he can have a much better career than the likes of Vick and Vince Young because he's a vastly superior pure passer. People are always hypnotized by athletic QBs, but what ultimately determines who becomes a consistently elite player is pure pocket passing ability. From what I've seen, Griffin is an accurate passer with a strong arm. I would expect his rushing numbers to drop over the years, but I think he can compensate for most of that with better passing stats. His receivers are really bad right now. Even when healthy, Garcon is not an NFL #1 WR. Hankerson is horrible and Santana Moss is well past his prime. Morgan is a solid player, but not a special talent in any way. This is a very average group and I think it will hurt Griffin a little bit until they're able to add some real playmakers.

Bottom line for me is that both guys look like great options for the future. Luck seems like such a safe bet to become a great NFL QB for the next decade+ that I couldn't trade him for anyone but Rodgers. Griffin seems like a bigger risk to me, but has an equal if not greater upside. Having said that, I've been doing this hobby long enough to see a lot of "next big thing" quarterbacks come and go. Funny as it sounds right now, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, and Jay Cutler were all consensus top 10 QBs after their rookie seasons. When people look at highly-touted prospects who show any signs of potential, they tend to assume that the player in question will fulfill his upside. It rarely works out that way. We're seeing a little bit of this right now with Cam and Stafford (though on a much smaller scale) and it's possible that we might be overrating Luck and RG3 in the same manner. However, I just happen to believe that in this case both of these players are exceptional talents. And most of the alternatives are either MUCH older (i.e. Brady and Brees) or equally flawed (i.e. Newton and Stafford). So when you add it all up, I'd be happy to take either of these rookies as a top 3 QB in dynasty startups.

'EBF said:

I think Griffin's early success was partially due to the unique problems that his skill set gives defenses. There is nobody in the league besides Vick who has this combination of rocket arm and speed. I would expect him to cool off a little bit as teams continue to figure out how to cope with his unique style, but I think he can have a much better career than the likes of Vick and Vince Young because he's a vastly superior pure passer. People are always hypnotized by athletic QBs, but what ultimately determines who becomes a consistently elite player is pure pocket passing ability. From what I've seen, Griffin is an accurate passer with a strong arm. I would expect his rushing numbers to drop over the years, but I think he can compensate for most of that with better passing stats. His receivers are really bad right now. Even when healthy, Garcon is not an NFL #1 WR. Hankerson is horrible and Santana Moss is well past his prime. Morgan is a solid player, but not a special talent in any way. This is a very average group and I think it will hurt Griffin a little bit until they're able to add some real playmakers.

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Not aimed at you, EBF. Your post was simply the last I read, and somewhat inspired my rant. I question the notion that this new wave a running QBs are simply going to be "figured out". What can defenses really do? They can spy and play zone, both of which can be taken advantage of. Beyond that - what? It really comes down to - just as it does with every QB: are they good enough to be productive in the NFL. Newton is going to be the biggest buy low this off-season because of the notion that he was "figured out". But ask these people what teams are doing differently, and they can't say. As Thrifty pointed out above, his running usage - which allowed him to turn in a top 10 QB season ever - is still very high. The very special upside is still there. He didn't take the steps we hoped to see, but he would be far from the first. But the regression talk is based on a simple look at simple numbers. He's the same guy he was last year, in a worse situation. The offense he plays in is broken. The same can/will be true with RG3 if he doesn't get back to averaging 28 points/game. The popular, simple notion will be that he was figured out, that you can't count on running stats, etcetera. And if that takes place, the smart money is going to be reinvested in RG3. He is a special player with an upside that even Aaron Rodgers can't touch. RG3 > Luck in dynasty fantasy value. A different tier, even, in my opinion. He has the highest upside in the hobby and has the youth to pair it with. Call luck safer, if you'd like. And maybe you're right. But both guys are safe bets to start in the NFL for a very long time. RG3 is going to be undervalued this offseason, going outside of the top 3-4 in dynasty startups, because: "Look at Newton". And, again, the smart money will take advantage of that. The situation around RG3 will not crumble the way it did in Carolina. Nor are the two tied together in a way that one can be used as a future/past version of the other.

'Max Power said:

'MAC_32 said:

If I didn't have RG3 and Luck I would have targeted Roethlisberger preseason, I'm glad the rookies stepped up so quickly because it allowed me to jump ship from Romo and Rivers before their respective values tanked.Right now, if I were in the hunt but were sitting on a Vick/Cutler/Schaub/Tannehill like combo I would target Ben then Romo as a fix.

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I think a lot of owners would thinkg like this... But enough to trade your late second for? This is where it gets messy....

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If I were a QB short and had a shot at a title I would trade my 1 for either of those guys and gamble that 1 is the last pick.

'tenjack said:

So where is everyone on the whole RG3 vs Andrew Luck conversation?Ive got both in a keeper League but can eaily move one for a guy like arian foster (wouldnt be able to keep him, but foster would help me considerably in playoffs).My opinion:I think theyre both excellent QBs but in vastly different ways.RG3 has a great arm and athleticsm, but i can see his situation becoming ripe for injury. QBs that scramble often take bad hits, and based off his injury earlier this year, he has to learn to just throw the ball away. Still, hes an exciting guy to watch, but im nervous owning him. Redskins have no draft in 2013, so theyre going to need to signa big free agent WR to give RG3 a true weapon.Andrew Luck was the most hyped QB draft pick in a long time, and we now know why. The colts are winning with Luck under center, and he looks great out there. His stats are very decent, but we have yet to see a consistent level of fantasy play. With Wayne getting older, im not sure if Luck is going to regress until they find another stud receiver, or if hes the type of QB that will make his WRs better. A big plus is playing in that dome.I think, if healthy, RG3 may deliver slightly better stats. But if you want to sleep well at night, Luck may have the longest and better football career. Luck is the better dynasty/keeper play.thoughts?

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They are both going to be great for a very long time, I slightly lean Luck because RG3's style of play lends a greater risk of injury - only reason. They are both elite QB's into 2020 and beyond.