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Pretty much everything. Talent, situation (coach's willingness to go a different direction), QB TD vulture, reliance on workload. I realize there's counterarguments to most of those, but he's one of my least favorite in that group. I plan on selling Leshoure in the offseason too, for a lot of the same reasons.
Tate doesn't have the same new car smell, but Foster wearing down has to kick his value up a little bit. Wonder if Foster starts eating meat again. (Oh man, I guess it already started.)
I like his talent. I also like to rely on the opinions of others, when it comes to talent, especially those paid to have said opinions; everyone seems to love the guy; especially what he offers in this system. His QB being a TD vulture is a bit of a concern, but he is nearly a lock for either 100 yards or a TD every game; I'll happily take 12 points a game from my low end RB1 in standard formats. As for coaching, I think that is a bit overstated in this situation. I don't have the post I am referring to, or haven't done the research myself, so take with a grain of salt, but Shanny will happily ride one guy beyond a season, if he has incentive to do so. I think Morris has given him that incentive. Especially with the Redskins low on resources to improve the team, I would be pretty surprised to not see Morris finish next season as he will this: a very productive starter for the Washington Redskins. In other years, I might be more willing to move Morris or treat him as less than I currently do. But, as SSOG and others have pointed out, this RB field is very flawed and doesn't offer many top options under the age of 25. He is much more productive than Steven Jackson, and unlike Jackson, there is potential that Morris has 3-5 more productive seasons.
The way the higher up's talk about Tate I'd be surprised if he's back after his rookie deal is up. If I had to guess right now if they can get Forsett back cheaply they will maintain status quo for 2013 with the plan to let Tate walk and draft a RB in the top 100 in 2014. He's the next Michael Turner/Bush imho, dice roll on a good but not special talent and hope situation rewards him.
I agree with all of this. The moment didsn't seem to big for him, mentally, which I think is a great sign.
He looked better last night than I have ever seen him, but he'll need to do that 4 more times for me to buy in. I've seen a dozen plus Foles games, so I hesitate to reverse course after one good performance on the big stage. One play really stuck out last night as same ole Foles, the 2 point conversion play. He decided pre snap where he was going with the ball if he was the slightest bit open. Classic Foles mistake. Byrce Brown is wide open right in front of him for the easy 2 and he rifles for the guy in the back of the end zone. NFL QB's can't make that mistake.
Yeah - bad play there. But I didn't notice him doing it too often last night, in general, however. He seemed to go through his progressions. I am not qualified to say with much confidence, but it didn't seem like the Eagles altered the play calling much for him. Granted, Mike Vick was the starter...The throw to Cooper in the end zone was pretty. Carr had great coverage, but Foles put it where it needed to be.
I like Jennings more than Bowe, but I don't really like Bowe. I think they both fall into the same boat though, hold for now then re-evaluate once on a new team. I'm more optimistic about Jennings than Bowe right now, but there's risk associated with both. I'm glad I jumped ship when I did, MUCH happier building around Josh Gordon.We'll get a better idea about guys like Bodkin come May. If I remember right Jones is only on a one year deal and could price himself out too if so. If both Jennings and Jones go then we see what the Pack does in the draft, lots of quality complimentary WR's available and with Cobb and Jordy in tow that's all they would need. If they ignore them then Bodkin becomes interesting. Not a bad speculative add, dropping a vet you're not keeping, once your season is over.
Only problem is that WR in the back of the end zone was open also...Foles just missed him. It's silly to blame a QB for throwing towards an open target just because there happened to be an even more open target elsewhere. (FWIW...Celek was also WIDE open at the pylon.)'MAC_32 said:
Wasn't my point, he has a major issue and he continues to show game-to-game he isn't progressing. He locks onto his pre-snap read and doesn't look elsewhere until he's sure that option is not there. This will create problems down the road. Weeden is experiencing it right now, defenders know where he's going with the ball based on his eyes which is leading to a lot of deflected passes because the line is just sitting tight reading his body language and throwing their arms up when he goes into the passing motion. Have seen this a few times vs. Foles already and expect to see more if he doesn't adjust.
Tend to side with Coop here, and in general don't understand the line of thinking that wants to sell Morris. Is there some risk? Sure. But there's risk with everyone. I think Morris has shown he has talent (always falls forward, rarely gets stopped for a loss, has the vision to see the cutback, square his shoulders, and run like a Mack truck). He's now also being used as a 3-down back by Shanahan. How many 3-down bell cows are left in the NFL? How many of those are under 25?And Shanahan has ridden backs before for years in a row. His reputation in Denver (before the Selvin Young, Mike Bell, Tatum Bell, etc. madness) was as a RB-friendly system, but he was almost always forced to move on to the next guy because of an injury. Look at TD and Portis. I'm not suggesting Morris is a Clinton Portis-level talent, but Morris' story runs very parallel to TD's story to this point. I'd be careful about selling.'thriftyrocker said:
Being under 25 only has value if you assume career longevity, when the history of Shanahan RBs is at least anecdotally otherwise. What was Helu's value at this time last year? Coming off 3 straight 100 yard games with 20+ carries. His key talent is health, which is not predictable.
Mostly that's true, but there's definitely risk.
Oh, absolutely. I had him queued up in my rookie draft in the 6th but got sniped. Since then his market value has never matched mine, so I've never thought about even pitching an offer. If I'm the Morris owner and I haven't sold him yet, or already bought him, I'm holding steady through the end of the season. Only case would be in which you're out of the playoffs, there's a contender with a RB issue, and he's willing to overpay. Otherwise, gamble,. and wait.
NOt sure I buy into this. Helu looked terrific before getting hurt...and Helu is one thing that could throw a huge monkey wrench into the Morris train.I was selling on Morris earlier this year, right now I'd hold...but if someone is willing to pay RB1 value for him, I'd probably sell and let them take the risk instead.
That's fine. Royster was built to take the pounding from a eyeball test, but he hurt his knee in preseason which is part of the story here. The bar is pretty low. Helu may have rubber band Achilles in both feet, but a routine injury and 2 or 3 week absence is a window that other 24 yo RBs don't have to worry about.
I think you have to give an incomplete to most of the rookie WRs.While none of those you've listed have shown very much they haven't shown anything too negative yet either. Most went to poor situations in terms of either QB play (hill, graham, floyd) or strong competition at receiver (floyd, randle).I was sniffing around Randle before my trade deadline and will definitely be looking at others come January. In leagues where I own these guys not much has changed for me.
Board doesn't look much different, Gordon's clearly at the top and Blackmon is a notch behind Wright (but ahead of Floyd) instead of way ahead like before. I was higher on Givens than Quick, Jeffrey, and Hill, so I'm guessing he's passed Jenkins, Criner, Randle, and Sanu but still well behind the top 4. So, from outside the top 60 to inside the top 50.ETA: forgot about Hilton, absolutely has earned an upgrade. I still like the Jenkins-Criner-Randle-Sanu tier more but he's right there too.
I'd definitely sell the rookies that are getting playing time for one of the guys that have had injuries or not received much playing time as long as I like their talent better. I'm not sold on Givens since I could see the Rams signing a free agent WR, plus Quick and Amendola are still there. Guys I'm hoping to buy low on are Jenkins, Jeffery and Hill. Was able to sell Graham after he had a couple of decent games earlier.Do you guys try to stay true to your original rookie WR rankings, or adjust based on playing time/production?
It really depends. Generally speaking the big school guys are pretty consistent with their ranking on my board pre to post draft and after 1 year and the small school guys are a lot more volatile, but each case is different. It just depends how comfortable I was with their valuation in April. The only player I've really downgraded is Blackmon because I think he may be too big of a mental midget risk. The only players I've really upgraded are smaller school guys - Givens and Hilton. Yes, I know Wake Forest isn't a smaller school but I lump him in since I didn't follow him much until the very end of 2011.
Stubbornly sticking to faulty projections can cost you dearly though. I don't understand why you'd ask yourself that first question. That simply isn't going to happen. And talent is only going to take you so far. Hence I'll be starting TY Hilton or Chris Givens over Larry Fitzgerald this week. I don't really give a #### how Larry would do on Indy because it isn't going to happen.
Right, but we're not talking about a one week projection. I'd still back Michael Floyd to have a better career than TY Hilton. It's just one season, ultimately.
If you don't spend much time researching pre draft I expect your rankings to be more fluid, I trust my pre draft evaluations so I don't react as much to what happens week to week. The biggest changes on my board of rookies usually happens immediately after the next year's draft. If a guy isn't panning out his replacement is usually on the roster by that point. If he's for real he will get on the field sooner rather than later, teams aren't going to pay vets to do what a younger guy can do for less $.
Not so sure after seeing last night's game. He runs pretty hot in that offense. I don't remember Helu finishing runs like that nor do I remember Shanny being as high on him.
I don't play in any career leagues. I view dynasty as individual years with an eye to the future, but never sacrificing the present if possible. Hilton has already enabled me to obtain a first round bye with his late season run. The Michael Floyd owner was unable to start him at any point this season and he was the worst team in our league. While he stuck steadfastly to Floyd, I was able to use Givens and Hilton at various times to propel me to the second seed. Floyd may have better career numbers (then again he may not) but he's already cost that owner a valuable roster spot all season. Maybe if that owner had dumped Floyd for Givens or Hilton a month ago he'd have been able to make a run. I did it for years with Jonathan Stewart. Heard it all the time - top 10 talent. Top 5 talent. But he simply doesn't win you fantasy games. I dumped him for Tony Gonzalez to a team that won't make the playoffs because Gonzo is scoring points right now. I know he'll retire but I don't care because I want to make a run now.I don't understand building for the future so much. I maybe use 5 of my 24 roster spots for handcuffs and upside players. But they have to produce or the opportunity cost of rostering them becomes monetary because you can't win leagues with guys who may or may not be good at some point in the future. Floyd is a great example. He might be good and if I could find a way to squeeze him onto the end of my roster then maybe I would. Nice upside guy there. But I wouldn't trade him for Hilton, no way. I think the problem with many dynasty owners is they get too caught up in their rankings and don't look at what is going on right in front of them. You aren't an NFL scout (not that scouts are even all that accurate). Football has 22 moving parts on the field each week. Instead of trusting what a scout tells you or what you think you see on the field, or what a team does in the draft, trust the box score (with a eye on age). Then you don't get stuck holding Chad Jackson when you could have traded him for Greg Jennings.
Is he fully healthy yet? I've haven't read that he is 100% anywhere. Obviously that's a knock on him.
Is anyone 100% in week 13 though. Hes always produced when less than 100%, not this year. Are the injuries catching up already cause I'm not really seeing him open much. Always someone draped all over him. To his credit, Elis still trying to find him though.
Nicks is one of the guys I'll be trying hard to buy in every league this offseason. He's buried in the 50s in fantasy scoring, but he's actually still producing at an 80 catch, 1000 yard pace this year when he's played. The TDs are way down, but that is likely a combination of variance and Eli's numbers being way down this year. He's proven that he has the talent, and sometimes injuries are just bad luck.
I think you're both a little right. But too much focus on the future or the present can be detrimental. Guess I'm going for the obvious "balance" comment. If one looked at only "what have you done for me lately", might have gone with Mike Williams TB over Dez Bryant. MW-TB is a nice WR2/3, but Dez has the WR1 upside. Then again, ignoring Alfred Morris can be detrimental as well. It's the balance between inertia/patience, and movement/clarity. Look before you jump, but he who hesitates is lost. Definitely what I find toughest as a dynasty owner. In the end, it comes down to who you believe in. Don't think either approach is wrong, per se, as long as the players you're pursuing are ones you're willing to stand on the table for.
The fantasy community was always higher on Helu than his own team. And Morris beat Royster out because they thought he was the better player; not because of an injury. I see your point: there will always be added concern with guys like Ridley and Morris; their value will always seem to be a question mark after every fumble or RB drafted by the team. But Morris is likely to produce a 1,300/8 season. I don't see incentive for Shanny to replace him, especially considering that the Redskins are low on picks as it is.
He's still not the same guy he was before his injury. I don't know why it is different this year, but it is. He's simply not as fast as he has been. That said, as an owner, I am holding. Where I don't own him, I am buying. It might be time to bump him down a little bit, but not to write him off. I still consider him a top 10 option, even considering his injury history.
What was his incentive to replace Mike Anderson (1700/15), Olandis Gary (1300/7), or Reuben Droughns (1600/4)?I honestly don't remember the circumstances, but all of those guys were young and coming off good/great seasons and weren't the starter the next year.
Anderson could never stay healthy; same with Gary. I don't really recall what happened with Droughns; I'll look it up. But in the case of Gary/Anderson, Shanny didn't simply replace them for fun, out of spite, or anything like that. They both had bad stretches of injuries. I am not claiming that Morris is Foster, in terms of talent. But a lot of these arguments were made against Foster during his monster season. Then again the following, while Tate had a few nice games. Again, I know Morris isn't as safe, because he isn't as talented. But there is reason to believe he finishes next year as he will this year.ETA: Wiki says Droughns asked for a trade when he was not assured the starting job. They brought him in originally to play FB.
Anderson and Gary both took over for an injured Terrell Davis, and relinquished the job when he came back (much like Bryce Brown probably relinquishes the job when Shady comes back). Then Portis kept them on the bench for two years. When Portis left, Anderson earned the starting job again before getting lost to season-ending injury, and then earned the starting job again the next year, demonstrating Shanahan's loyalty. Droughns was a fullback who got the job by being the last man standing. Denver traded him because they still wanted him as a fullback, but he didn't want to move back. Shanahan has been very loyal to his RBs, except when injuries have forced his hand. If feel very comfortable owning Morris for the next 3 years.
In a vaccum I see what you're saying and don't disagree with it. That said, if you build your team well then you're probably not relying on Hilton types right now. I'm in two dyno's, one in which I basically had my division locked up in early November and another in which I went into sell mode in late October. I had a slim shot of making it, but needed a lot to go right and saw my odds at < 5%.My WR corps on the winning team was Andre-Percy-S Moss-Sanders-R Moss-Baldwin-etc. Realizing it was a weakness I pursued options to upgrade WR3. However, instead of going after young guys I went after uninteresting vets on losing teams. I have my young guys to build around, but I'm playing to win now. So I traded for Lloyd and Washington, not giving up much for either. Similar methodology at RB and DE. Richardson, R Bush, and Felix were my only real RB's with Benson on the shelf so I got Turner from a seller for a flier. DE was a different story, I had depth but not stars so I traded for Dumerville and Peppers. While doing all of the above I did not touch my young core going forward rather just provided lesser options at the positions I was buying an added a long term flier. Competing for the title now, but not touching the potential future to do it.On the seller I had AJ Jenkins, Criner, TJ Graham, etc. stashed behind Jennings, Decker, Steve Smith, and Bess. I didn't have any intention on using them, so I could afford to be patient. Once I realized this season was lost I started moving pieces around and have rebuilt my WR corps to Fitzgerald, Gordon, V Brown, Alexander, and a bunch of fliers (Collie probably being the most interesting) going into the offseason. More than likely I will cut a deal to get another WR or upgrade one of the younger guys but regardless my projects at the end of the bench are non factors here. They're developing and if my evaluations are right then at least one or two of them will pan out. My biggest repeat mistakes as a dynasty owner is not trusting my evaluations and jumping ship too soon. It's cost me Wallace, Cruz, Stevie, among others. Some young guys breakout right away, others take a couple-few years, others emerge quickly and then plateau, and some never do. In the end, trust your instincts, whether you do the work ahead of time or on-the-go.
Never understood why so many were so high on Helu. I'll often miss on guys like Morris, ones in which I don't know enough about the player and I don't trust his coach, but as long as I'm hitting enough elsewhere the damage is negligible. I feel more comfortable going after situations and players that I think are easier to predict. Some are obvious, others are not.
...and Cleveland complied only to see Droughns go down the same route as so many other Shannahan backs. The system > the player.
James Jones signed a 3-year deal before the 2011 season. He is still under contract in 2013 at a base salary of $2.95M with an additional $100K workout bonus and $200K roster bonus. Given the way he is playing this year, Jones will play a big role in the offense next year, whether due to the departure of Jennings or Finley.
I am fully aware that this system has produced great results with players who did not perform as well outside of it. This is the system Morris is playing in, however, and he is producing in it.
Oops, thought he signed that deal 3 years ago, not 2. Good note and I think that means both Jennings and Finley are gone.
