I was simply illustrating how insanely much more valuable RBs are than WRs on a year to year basis. I'm not manipulating the statistics, I'm just presenting them and letting people make their own judgements.
Part of your argument was to use the differentiation between 100 and 96 to run up a tally, but hiding the fact it is a 4% difference. Not really a cogent argument unless it was a political debate and you're trying to hide the truth from some naive populace. "I pay at least a 13% tax rate every year." The fact that ADP produced better as a rookie and early in his career than Calvin is such a "no duh" argument that the only response I can have is "yes I watched football before this year." I remember Jon Kitna and Drew Stanton. Perhaps Green has landed in a better situation and his ~100 VBD this year will match Peterson's career trajectory. Certainly at this point is not out of the quesiton. Jerry Rice's VBD puts ADP's to shame, even early on, because he landed in such an elite situation. Moss' VBD is comparable to ADP's, because he landed in a very good situation. Sorry for being condescending, but I just think the whole argument is flawed and was offput that it was presented with such slight of hand.
Again, I don't see what the sleight of hand is. Calvin Johnson's second best season (pro-rating this year's stats) is 96 VBD. Adrian Peterson's worst season (pro-rating last year's stats) is 100 VBD. 100 VBD > 96 VBD. Adrian Peterson's WORST season is better than Calvin Johnson's SECOND BEST season.Look, I never said that Adrian Peterson's worst season blew Calvin Johnson's second best season out of the water. I never implied that Adrian Peterson's worst season was several orders of magnitude better than Calvin's second best season. You're absolutely right that the difference is just 4%. Adrian Peterson's WORST SEASON was 4% better than Calvin Johnson's SECOND BEST SEASON. Yes, 4% is not a lot more, but the amazing fact here is that Peterson's worst season is *ANY* better than Calvin's second best season. The amazing thing here is that Calvin Johnson is on pace to set an NFL record for most receiving yards in a single season and it would still only qualify as the worst fantasy season of Adrian Peterson's entire 6-year career. Calvin is having a career year, a record-setting year, and he's putting up VBD numbers that Adrian Peterson has beaten- not smashed, not demolished, but nevertheless still topped- in each and every single season of his entire career. Calvin Johnson has rung up fewer VBD this season than Stevan Ridley. I do not know how to illustrate any more starkly than this just how huge of a gap in value there is between elite RBs and elite WRs on a season-by-season basis. Calvin Johnson is going to break NFL records this year, records that have never before been seriously threatened, and despite that he's still not as valuable as a time-share back in a pass-happy offense. He's in his prime, playing out of his mind as the only real target on the most pass happy offense the NFL has ever seen (Stafford and the Lions are both on pace to break the single season pass attempt record for an individual and a team), and he's still being bested by more than a half dozen different RBs.I'm not saying this to score political points. I've already said that I'd draft Calvin before Peterson in a startup. I'd draft him an entire round before, in fact. I'd take Calvin with a top 3 pick in a startup, and would be sorely, sorely tempted to take him #1 overall. Calvin Johnson is a first ballot HoFer who is just beginning his assault on the record books. By the time he retires, there's a great chance he'll be seen as the second greatest WR to ever play the game. I'm not stacking the deck in Peterson's favor because I'm on some sort of pro-Peterson bandwagon and I want to con everyone else on this forum into joining me. I'm simply pointing out that despite all of this ridiculous praise for Calvin, the first ballot HoF, record-setting, never-before-seen athletic talent, his second best season WOULD BE ADRIAN PETERSON'S WORST SEASON. Because RB, the position, is so ludicrously, dramatically, mind-bogglingly more valuable on a year-by-year basis that a bad season by Peterson's standards trumps one of the greatest WR seasons in the history of the national football league.I do not know why this is such a controversial statement. Again, Stevan Ridley- STEVAN RIDLEY- has more VBD than Calvin Johnson this year. Runningback is more valuable, on a season-by-season basis, than wide receiver- especially in today's NFL, where pass-happy offenses are raising the WR baseline and RBBCs are lowering the RB baseline. It's possible for wide receivers to make up that per-year value difference because they have much more longevity (and, as I've said twice already now, I fully expect Calvin to make up that per-year value differential, which is why I'd draft him before Peterson), but anyone who denies that such a value differential exists is just burying their head in the sand. This is not spin, this is not sleight of hand, this is not a trick or me pulling a fast one, this is just raw, pure, unvarnished truth.In case anyone still thinks I'm trying to massage the data, or obfuscate the issue, here is the season-by-season VBD totals for each player (all seasons pro-rated to 16 games), sorted from high to low.Peterson: 160, 140, 137, 120, 103, 100Calvin: 149, 96, 88, 81, 43, 0 (rookie year)A great year by an RB is substantially more valuable than a great year by a WR. Toss out his rookie year and Calvin has averaged 5.71 VBD per game. Adrian Peterson, on the other hand, has averaged 7.92. That's 38.7% more per game. That seems about right- you should expect an RB to be 33-40% more valuable than a comparable WR in any given season. As I said, WRs get a chance to make that up on the back end thanks to their extended careers, but you cannot deny that the advantage exists. Even if you want to go to the all-time greats, that advantage exists. LaDainian Tomlinson averaged 33-40% more VBD per game than Randy Moss. Marshall Faulk averaged 33-40% more VBD per game than Marvin Harrison. Shaun Alexander averaged 33-40% more VBD per game than Terrell Owens. The only WR in history who has racked up VBD like an RB was Jerry Rice (he had 9 different 100+ VBD seasons), but as we all know, Jerry Rice is the exception, not the rule.
Disclaimer: Been lurking this thread from the get go, so I can take any 'tough love' or flaming coming my way. I rode Barry into the sunset and don't regret it one bit....I think ADP is similar.
