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Many owners don't understand how, in many formats, 2 years of Adrian Peterson production can be worth 4+ years of Calvin Johnson production.

I won't sit here and let you talk about Calvin like that. In the middle of his pursuit for 2000, no less. Calvin is on pace for 96 VBD this year. He had 149 last year. In STANDARD SCORING no less. That 2 year stretch is as good as any 2 year stretch ADP has had. Look it up. I'll wait. See. As good as any 2 year stretch ADP has had. You can apologize now. Thanks.

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If BPA in 2012 startup were MJD, Dez, and Harvin, the right pick was to reach for a WR.

In hindsite, sure. Replace MJD with Adrian Peterson, and in many formats, the right pick was to take the RB. But I don't want it to sound like I am arguing for RBs, or against WR. I am arguing against the limitation of your options. I don't think you are advocating it, so I don't think there is much for us to debate. To be cliche, each position has a spot in your dynasty portfolio. RBs are riskier, but have higher production over replacement. WRs are safer, but easier to find, thus, have less peak and medium value.
Using thrifty's example my pick was Harvin by a landslide, no hindsight. Imho the only risk with Harvin has ever been the migraines. The risks with the others were too strong to justify passing on Harvin.AD's a different animal though, he's consistently recovered from injuries quicker than he should so I'm not surprised he did with the ACL too. I am surprised he has been THIS great, but I wasn't worried about him not being a top 5-10 back for the next 3+ years. Just may have come with a slow September this year. I'd have taken him before Harvin.Great examples here to show why I don't use VBD in football. There's nothing in VBD to accurately quantify the risks and rewards associated with these 4.

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If BPA in 2012 startup were MJD, Dez, and Harvin, the right pick was to reach for a WR.

In hindsite, sure. Replace MJD with Adrian Peterson, and in many formats, the right pick was to take the RB.
That's fine. Peterson and (potentially?) Richardson are special cases that MJD, (potentially?) McCoy, and Foster are not. Any generational talent should be upgraded.

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It seems like we have similar end game strategies, just completely different ways of going about it. I agree that veterans are usually significantly under valued in dynasty formats, especially relative to younger QB's and WR's since there are so many of them. It's why I burn and churn them, I just make sure to retain the best at those positions whereas my understanding is you won't hesitate to move them if VBD dictates.I have never practiced VBD and never will, so I'm guessing that's another reason we tend to disagree week in and week out. Make informed opinions on players, not just skill positions either, and coaches too and constantly re-evaluate them based on new info - good decisions are usually made if you have a good idea about all of the chess pieces at play. In such a subjective sport like football in which most of the data is flawed and unreliable I think that method is much more successful than a statistical tool like VBD.

If you understand (or even attempt to) how 200 points for a WR relates to 200 points for a RB in X league - you use VBD. It can be as simple or in depth as we want to make it. But I suggest you - who I have no doubt is a good owner - absolutely use it on a bigger level than you think.
It can help make sense of what happened in the past, but it is a poor way of predicting what will happen in the future.

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It can help make sense of what happened in the past, but it is a poor way of predicting what will happen in the future.

I think you misunderstood; I am not predicting anything in this example. It's all hindsight, simple math. If you can understand how valuable each point is based on league specs, you have an advantage.

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That's fine. Peterson and (potentially?) Richardson are special cases that MJD, (potentially?) McCoy, and Foster are not. Any generational talent should be upgraded.

Even outside of that context. $1 isn't worth more than a 50% chance at $2. Even if the 50/50 bet fails, that doesn't mean the original valuation was off. That is a silly, simple example, but valid to the point I was trying to make. The dynasty community seems to be so fearful and so prone to "safety" that they are making poor bets in the interest stability, in the form of safe non-RBs. They are willing to take the $1 over 60-70% bets for $2, even. Again, silly and simple, but my point. Edited by Concept Coop

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Many owners don't understand how, in many formats, 2 years of Adrian Peterson production can be worth 4+ years of Calvin Johnson production.

I won't sit here and let you talk about Calvin like that. In the middle of his pursuit for 2000, no less. Calvin is on pace for 96 VBD this year. He had 149 last year. In STANDARD SCORING no less. That 2 year stretch is as good as any 2 year stretch ADP has had. Look it up. I'll wait. See. As good as any 2 year stretch ADP has had. You can apologize now. Thanks.
I play in a MOX league: 14 team, standard, QRRWWFF (TE=FL) Plug that into the FBG app and see what you get. And you are not applying VBD to a dynasty format. Every year of production from a RB is worth more than that of a WR, based on VORP. So 100 blanket WR VBD <> 100 blanket RB VBD.

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Great examples here to show why I don't use VBD in football. There's nothing in VBD to accurately quantify the risks and rewards associated with these 4.

You're making it pretty clear that you don't know what it is.Harvin's career VBD doesn't add up to MJD's best year. Harvin's best year, VBD/Game (so not to count game missed by injury) isn't close to MJD's, even. I know Harvin is safer and younger, and that's what you're looking for. But that doesn't always lead to wins. You and I would make great trading partners. I'd take all your old, risky, scary assets for my flashy, young, safe ones. Then, in a couple years, you can trade them back to me when their old and risky. For pennies on the dollar, of course. Edited by Concept Coop

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How Is everyone valuing D Alexander? I picked him up as a flyer and he's surprised me that he hasn't hurt himself yet. He's young and very productive over the last 4-5 weeks, but that injury history is still there. I can't decide if its better to keep him and pray for his knee or try to flip him in a package foran older vet (like Wayne, AJ or White), particularly since I'm a contending team.

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How Is everyone valuing D Alexander? I picked him up as a flyer and he's surprised me that he hasn't hurt himself yet. He's young and very productive over the last 4-5 weeks, but that injury history is still there. I can't decide if its better to keep him and pray for his knee or try to flip him in a package foran older vet (like Wayne, AJ or White), particularly since I'm a contending team.

I'd try to package him, myself, after the season. But I wasn't fast enough to pounce on him anywhere, so I don't have that pleasure. There is so much injury baggage there.

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Great examples here to show why I don't use VBD in football. There's nothing in VBD to accurately quantify the risks and rewards associated with these 4.

You're making it pretty clear that you don't know what it is.
Knowing baselines and evaluating WR10 vs. RB7 vs. QB4 numbers does not tell me anything about the ability for AD to heal better than others, MJD's lower half being on the brink of crumbling, Percy's migraines, and what the hell is going on between Dez Bryant's ears.Percy did some things this offseason to minimize his migraine risk and AD is still a freak. MJD is still declining physically and Dez beat his mother.VBD does nothing to decipher that information. Without hindsight I easily ranked AD and Harvin higher than MJD and Dez. One is proving correct, the other might not be, but there's still plenty of time for Dez to revert to form. The offseason awaits and that's when NFL mental midgets get stupid. Another month like the last one and I think Dez becomes a perfect sell candidate and it has absolutely nothing to do with a 2012 VBD score.

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How Is everyone valuing D Alexander? I picked him up as a flyer and he's surprised me that he hasn't hurt himself yet. He's young and very productive over the last 4-5 weeks, but that injury history is still there. I can't decide if its better to keep him and pray for his knee or try to flip him in a package foran older vet (like Wayne, AJ or White), particularly since I'm a contending team.

Treating him the same as Laurent Robinson this time last year, holding and praying he stays in one piece and goes to a situation that makes him an interesting sell. Obviously Laurent did not.

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Great examples here to show why I don't use VBD in football. There's nothing in VBD to accurately quantify the risks and rewards associated with these 4.

You're making it pretty clear that you don't know what it is.
Knowing baselines and evaluating WR10 vs. RB7 vs. QB4 numbers does not tell me anything about the ability for AD to heal better than others, MJD's lower half being on the brink of crumbling, Percy's migraines, and what the hell is going on between Dez Bryant's ears.Percy did some things this offseason to minimize his migraine risk and AD is still a freak. MJD is still declining physically and Dez beat his mother.VBD does nothing to decipher that information. Without hindsight I easily ranked AD and Harvin higher than MJD and Dez. One is proving correct, the other might not be, but there's still plenty of time for Dez to revert to form. The offseason awaits and that's when NFL mental midgets get stupid. Another month like the last one and I think Dez becomes a perfect sell candidate and it has absolutely nothing to do with a 2012 VBD score.
outstanding post.

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Knowing baselines and evaluating WR10 vs. RB7 vs. QB4 numbers does not tell me anything about the ability for AD to heal better than others, MJD's lower half being on the brink of crumbling, Percy's migraines, and what the hell is going on between Dez Bryant's ears.Percy did some things this offseason to minimize his migraine risk and AD is still a freak. MJD is still declining physically and Dez beat his mother.VBD does nothing to decipher that information. Without hindsight I easily ranked AD and Harvin higher than MJD and Dez. One is proving correct, the other might not be, but there's still plenty of time for Dez to revert to form. The offseason awaits and that's when NFL mental midgets get stupid. Another month like the last one and I think Dez becomes a perfect sell candidate and it has absolutely nothing to do with a 2012 VBD score.

Taking one player over another (different positions) becuase he will last longer in dynasty, is like taking one player over another because he scores more in re-draft. You know the guy that goes QB first no matter what because Eli scored more points than Peterson last year? That's the dynasty guy that takes Romo over Gore becuase Romo will last longer. Don't be that guy. VBD can account for anything you can project. If you don't want to project it, it's still a mighty fine asset.

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I know Harvin is safer and younger, and that's what you're looking for. But that doesn't always lead to wins. You and I would make great trading partners. I'd take all your old, risky, scary assets for my flashy, young, safe ones. Then, in a couple years, you can trade them back to me when their old and risky. For pennies on the dollar, of course.

You aren't reading anything I write. I have traded for Ced Benson, Michael Turner, Nate Washington, Brandon Lloyd, and Dallas Clark in the league I'm trying to win now. I gave away fliers to get all of them, nothing of substance, but they have upside. They give me a better chance to win right now if I need them. With Richardson, Reggie Bush, Percy, Andre, and Witten hopefully I only need one of those WR's but I have insurance options if need be. Vets have their place in this game too, if you think I'm only after shiny pieces then again I must be an awful writer.

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They are willing to take the $1 over 60-70% bets for $2, even.

In the startup I quoted, the Fitz and Jennings picks certainly fit that criteria. Unfortunately unlike Powerball the odds are not posted. Peterson did not go top 6 because the odds were misread by almost everyone. Dez went a round or 2 too late for the same reason. I don't think the difference in drafting is necessarily dogma, it is a different evaluation of the risk and percentages.

100 blanket WR VBD <> 100 blanket RB VBD.

I appreciate we're in different styles of leagues and that is tempering both of our opinions.

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Knowing baselines and evaluating WR10 vs. RB7 vs. QB4 numbers does not tell me anything about the ability for AD to heal better than others, MJD's lower half being on the brink of crumbling, Percy's migraines, and what the hell is going on between Dez Bryant's ears.Percy did some things this offseason to minimize his migraine risk and AD is still a freak. MJD is still declining physically and Dez beat his mother.VBD does nothing to decipher that information. Without hindsight I easily ranked AD and Harvin higher than MJD and Dez. One is proving correct, the other might not be, but there's still plenty of time for Dez to revert to form. The offseason awaits and that's when NFL mental midgets get stupid. Another month like the last one and I think Dez becomes a perfect sell candidate and it has absolutely nothing to do with a 2012 VBD score.

Taking one player over another (different positions) becuase he will last longer in dynasty, is like taking one player over another because he scores more in re-draft. You know the guy that goes QB first no matter what because Eli scored more points than Peterson last year? That's the dynasty guy that takes Romo over Gore becuase Romo will last longer. Don't be that guy. VBD can account for anything you can project. If you don't want to project it, it's still a mighty fine asset.
I took Harvin over MJD because I thought he would be better this year and in the future, didn't need a VBD score to tell me that. If I had any doubt MJD's holdout pushed me over the top.ETA - I will buy a RB in decline mode, but I'll do it in the above examples with Benson and Turner, ones that don't cost me much to acquire. I'm not going to pay a top 30 pricetag for a guy that's probably going to see his value tank very soon. Edited by MAC_32

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I know Harvin is safer and younger, and that's what you're looking for. But that doesn't always lead to wins. You and I would make great trading partners. I'd take all your old, risky, scary assets for my flashy, young, safe ones. Then, in a couple years, you can trade them back to me when their old and risky. For pennies on the dollar, of course.

You aren't reading anything I write. I have traded for Ced Benson, Michael Turner, Nate Washington, Brandon Lloyd, and Dallas Clark in the league I'm trying to win now. I gave away fliers to get all of them, nothing of substance, but they have upside. They give me a better chance to win right now if I need them. With Richardson, Reggie Bush, Percy, Andre, and Witten hopefully I only need one of those WR's but I have insurance options if need be. Vets have their place in this game too, if you think I'm only after shiny pieces then again I must be an awful writer.
I'm just having some fun with the schtick; my apologies. On a serious note, I think our conversation has it a wall. VBD doesn't have to tell you who to draft. It simply gives context. Understanding how much 2 years of RB1 production is worth compared to 4 years of WR1 production is major. That's all I advocate using it for.

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They are willing to take the $1 over 60-70% bets for $2, even.

In the startup I quoted, the Fitz and Jennings picks certainly fit that criteria. Unfortunately unlike Powerball the odds are not posted. Peterson did not go top 6 because the odds were misread by almost everyone. Dez went a round or 2 too late for the same reason. I don't think the difference in drafting is necessarily dogma, it is a different evaluation of the risk and percentages.

100 blanket WR VBD <> 100 blanket RB VBD.

I appreciate we're in different styles of leagues and that is tempering both of our opinions.
Very good points. And, as always, I really enjoy the debate. I think our only real difference of opinion is how prevalent the dogmatic theory is. Ther are owners that go into startups with a map that I think is limiting.

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TO SABERTOOTH... I saw where you said you don't understand building for the future so much.

Your team struggled because your QBs fell apart. It's a 2QB league and your best QB are QB19 and QB20 so far. The other guy doesn't know that much more than you, he just got luckier at QB.
I don't play 2 QB leagues, but I think it's very important to lock down a stud at QB. It opens up a lot more flexibility in how you build the rest of your roster since you can feel good that position is locked down for the next decade, plus? The two dyno's I'm in are 5 and 7 years old, I built my teams around Rivers and Romo. Idea was to build around them initially and try to lock down replacements sometime between 2011 and 2013. Enter, RG3 and Luck. I feel comfortable setting and forgetting at QB for a very long time in both leagues. I have absolutely nothing behind RG3, literally, so I will be looking for a backup this offseason after trading away Bradford and Carson at different times this year but I don't have to get a good one if the price isn't right. I can afford to bargain shop until I find that steady backup, but I'm in no hurry. I may be sitting on a gold mine at QB in the Luck league though. Kaepernick, Bradford, and Geno on the way. I will definitely be cutting some deals in that league but no idea what exactly I will be doing. In the end I will feel comfortable if I end up with just one uninteresting backup and have shipped the rest off for upgrades elsewhere.Similar argument for elite WR's, but I think getting that QB should come first. Once accomplished then look for that WR. Or two. I think this is the best way to build a juggernaut.
I play in two dynasty leagues. One is 2QB, the other is Superflex. In the 2QB league the team with Brady/Brees won it last season despite mediocre supporting cast outside of Calvin. This season I traded McCoy + 1.1 for Aaron Rodgers. I think I did ok, but I obviously didn't realize just how good Luck was going to be. But now I have Rodgers/Palmer/Rivers and my team is in the bye week. In the superflex I got Rodgers in our initial auction last summer. Through a bunch of trades I got Newton so Rodgers/Newton there. My teams are consistently tough to beat just because of those QB tandems.

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If you think Droughns was a success in Cleveland then I cannot help you.

Here is a complete list of every Cleveland Browns RB to rush for 1000 yards (forget 1200) between 1986 and 2006: Reuben Droughns.

Droughns rushed for 1200 in Cle. Portis was great in Washington. System backs my foot.

I guess Larry Fitzgerald is a system WR, because he produced better in the Kurt Warner system than he did in the John Skelton system.

A true statement, but perhaps a little misleading in that Droughns was not quite the fantasy stud that the rushing numbers alone imply. I happen to specifically remember this because I acquired him in trade and was disappointed with his output.

Below is something from a faceoff between Sigmund Bloom and Chase Stuart following Droughn's 2005 season:

Bloom: Droughns averaged 100 total yards a game, no small feat, but his fantasy profile was kept low by his microscopic total of two touchdowns.

Stewart:

It's easy to say that Reuben Droughns ranked 14th last year, and 8th in the NFL in yards from scrimmage...But not so fast.

Droughns ranked 21st last year in FP/G among RBs with at least 8 games played, and that doesn't include any RBs from New Orleans, New York (Jets), Miami or Detroit. Droughns ranked 14th last year because he stayed healthy, not because he's a great RB. No RB with more carries or touches than Droughns scored less FPs, but four guys with fewer carries and a fifth with fewer touches scored more FPs. And Willie Parker scored .1 fewer FPs despite 75 fewer touches.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/06faceoff-DrouRe00.php
Droughns was basically the same guy in Cleveland as he was in Denver- a serviceable but mediocre grinder. He put up nearly identical ypg totals in both places. Yeah, he scored more TDs in Denver- is this a reflection on his talent, or on the fact that Denver's offense scores a lot more points than Cleveland's offense?

Droughns wasn't a great back in Cleveland, but he wasn't a great one in Denver, either. That's my point- he was the same guy in both places. The system didn't magically transform him from a nobody to a star. He wasn't some guy out of the stands who enjoyed a magic season and then turned back into a pumpkin. All that "anyone can run for 1,000 yards in Denver" nonsense was just that- nonsense. Just ask Quentin Griffin, or Selvin Young, or Mike Bell. Just compare the statistics from one back to another- Davis and Portis put up statistics far above anyone else (and Denver's rushing totals in those seasons were much higher). Mike Anderson was in the next tier, and then guys like Mike Bell, Olandis Gary, and Reuben Droughns put up good counting stats, but dramatically inferior efficiency stats (and the team rushing totals were much worse as a result). In other words, even within the system, you could see which guys were legit stars and which were seatwarmers. Alfred Morris is no Davis or Portis, but he's easily as good as Mike Anderson, which is enough for me to expect him to be a long-time starter in that offense and a borderline dynasty rb1.

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Many owners don't understand how, in many formats, 2 years of Adrian Peterson production can be worth 4+ years of Calvin Johnson production.

I won't sit here and let you talk about Calvin like that. In the middle of his pursuit for 2000, no less. Calvin is on pace for 96 VBD this year. He had 149 last year. In STANDARD SCORING no less. That 2 year stretch is as good as any 2 year stretch ADP has had. Look it up. I'll wait. See. As good as any 2 year stretch ADP has had. You can apologize now. Thanks.
Calvin's 96 VBD this year will be the second best total of his career. It would rank as the 6th best total of Peterson's career- 7th best if you prorate his numbers last year for the four games he missed.Edit: that's right- Calvin could go for 2000 yards and his season would still rank as the worst fantasy season of Peterson's career. Calvin has less VBD this season than Stevan Ridley. WRs have the longer careers, but RBs are astronomically more valuable on a per-season basis, and comparable RBs compile more career VBD than their WR counterparts (without even considering the extra roster spot you get from not having to carry them as long). Outside of Jerry Rice, stud RBs trump stud WRs. Edited by SSOG

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Calvin's 96 VBD this year will be the second best total of his career. It would rank as the 6th best total of Peterson's career- 7th best if you prorate his numbers last year for the four games he missed.

Disingenuous stat manipulation. Laughable.

ADP was worth more the day he is drafted. He was worth more in, say, 2009. But past VBD is irrelevant to current value. Calvin is worth more now and for forever in the leagues I play in (both standard and PPR with traditional-ish lineups).

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Calvin's 96 VBD this year will be the second best total of his career. It would rank as the 6th best total of Peterson's career- 7th best if you prorate his numbers last year for the four games he missed.

Disingenuous stat manipulation. Laughable.

ADP was worth more the day he is drafted. He was worth more in, say, 2009. But past VBD is irrelevant to current value. Calvin is worth more now and for forever in the leagues I play in (both standard and PPR with traditional-ish lineups).

I wasn't making judgments on who is more valuable going forward. I was simply illustrating how insanely much more valuable RBs are than WRs on a year to year basis. I'm not manipulating the statistics, I'm just presenting them and letting people make their own judgements. Calvin Johnson could go for 2000 yards this year and still score less VBD per game than Adrian Peterson did in the very worst season of his entire career. That's a fact.

Do with that fact what you will. If you expect Peterson to go for another 4 years while Calvin goes 6, maybe they're about even. If you expect Calvin to go 8, maybe he comes out ahead. Personally, I wouldn't hesitate before taking Calvin over ADP in a startup, but their value isn't so far apart that I would prefer Calvin in all situations (I had a chance to trade Peterson for Calvin earlier this year and declined due to my roster construction). I feel very confident that ADP will hold a sizeable lead in VBD over the next 3 seasons.

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I'd be selling Peterson "All Day" in dynasty.

Of course, I said the same thing last year and he proved me wrong by bouncing back with an absolutely monster season, but I'll let someone else in my league pin his hopes on a 28 year old RB next year. He probably only has 1.5-2 years of his peak left. If he doesn't win you the title in those two years, you'll regret picking him. I took Brian Westbrook with an early pick at a similar juncture of his career and always regretted it. Peterson is a much more talented athlete, but 1700+ carries is 1700+ carries. He's two years away from being Steven Jackson, if he's lucky.

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I'd be selling Peterson "All Day" in dynasty. Of course, I said the same thing last year and he proved me wrong by bouncing back with an absolutely monster season, but I'll let someone else in my league pin his hopes on a 28 year old RB next year. He probably only has 1.5-2 years of his peak left. If he doesn't win you the title in those two years, you'll regret picking him. I took Brian Westbrook with an early pick at a similar juncture of his career and always regretted it. Peterson is a much more talented athlete, but 1700+ carries is 1700+ carries. He's two years away from being Steven Jackson, if he's lucky.

Emmitt Smith had 265 career VBD starting at age 28. Tomlinson had 287. Sanders had 366 despite going out on top after his age 30 season. Faulk had 298. Curtis Martin also had 298. For comparison purposes, Brian Westbrook had 403 VBD for his entire career (although 217 of it came at age 28 or later). The comparison for Peterson isn't guys like Brian Westbrook, it's the first-ballot HoFers, and based on those guys, we should expect 300 or so more VBD from him going forward, spread out over 2 more great years and 1 more good year. I wouldn't take him in the first round of a startup, but I think 300 VBD is a lot more than you can expect from most guys who wind up going in the second of dynasty startups. And there's upside from there- Barry Sanders easily could have topped 500 VBD if he hadn't walked away.Edit: forgot Tiki Barber, who had 430 VBD starting at age 28 despite also walking away at the top of his game. Priest had a monstrous 634 VBD starting in his age 28 season. Sweetness had 551. Peterson still has monster upside despite his advanced age. Edited by SSOG

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I was simply illustrating how insanely much more valuable RBs are than WRs on a year to year basis. I'm not manipulating the statistics, I'm just presenting them and letting people make their own judgements.

Part of your argument was to use the differentiation between 100 and 96 to run up a tally, but hiding the fact it is a 4% difference. Not really a cogent argument unless it was a political debate and you're trying to hide the truth from some naive populace. "I pay at least a 13% tax rate every year." The fact that ADP produced better as a rookie and early in his career than Calvin is such a "no duh" argument that the only response I can have is "yes I watched football before this year." I remember Jon Kitna and Drew Stanton. Perhaps Green has landed in a better situation and his ~100 VBD this year will match Peterson's career trajectory. Certainly at this point is not out of the quesiton. Jerry Rice's VBD puts ADP's to shame, even early on, because he landed in such an elite situation. Moss' VBD is comparable to ADP's, because he landed in a very good situation. Sorry for being condescending, but I just think the whole argument is flawed and was offput that it was presented with such slight of hand.

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Many owners don't understand how, in many formats, 2 years of Adrian Peterson production can be worth 4+ years of Calvin Johnson production.

I won't sit here and let you talk about Calvin like that. In the middle of his pursuit for 2000, no less. Calvin is on pace for 96 VBD this year. He had 149 last year. In STANDARD SCORING no less. That 2 year stretch is as good as any 2 year stretch ADP has had. Look it up. I'll wait. See. As good as any 2 year stretch ADP has had. You can apologize now. Thanks.
Calvin's 96 VBD this year will be the second best total of his career. It would rank as the 6th best total of Peterson's career- 7th best if you prorate his numbers last year for the four games he missed.Edit: that's right- Calvin could go for 2000 yards and his season would still rank as the worst fantasy season of Peterson's career. Calvin has less VBD this season than Stevan Ridley. WRs have the longer careers, but RBs are astronomically more valuable on a per-season basis, and comparable RBs compile more career VBD than their WR counterparts (without even considering the extra roster spot you get from not having to carry them as long). Outside of Jerry Rice, stud RBs trump stud WRs.
Shhhhh!Keep it down please!I have leagumates here and they might not listen to one lone voice in the wilderness, but TWO may be a different matter amigo.:ph34r:

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I'd be selling Peterson "All Day" in dynasty. Of course, I said the same thing last year and he proved me wrong by bouncing back with an absolutely monster season, but I'll let someone else in my league pin his hopes on a 28 year old RB next year. He probably only has 1.5-2 years of his peak left. If he doesn't win you the title in those two years, you'll regret picking him. I took Brian Westbrook with an early pick at a similar juncture of his career and always regretted it. Peterson is a much more talented athlete, but 1700+ carries is 1700+ carries. He's two years away from being Steven Jackson, if he's lucky.

Respect your opinion immensely EBF, but I'd like to know if there is any RB you would have 'ridden into the sunset' i.e. their early thirties. This is hypothetical and I'm mainly just looking backwards at guys like Barry, Emmitt, or maybe Curtis Martin. It seems to me that Peterson is a once in lifetime talent and comparing him to SJax in 2yrs is just wrong. Opinions vary but sometimes it's just plain to see that some players are just special. This past year for ADP has been epic, and I truly believe we're seeing something historic. All players have shelf lives, and I'm sure you could sell him EXTREMELY high, but SJAX ain't no ADP:)Disclaimer: Been lurking this thread from the get go, so I can take any 'tough love' or flaming coming my way. I rode Barry into the sunset and don't regret it one bit....I think ADP is similar.

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I was simply illustrating how insanely much more valuable RBs are than WRs on a year to year basis. I'm not manipulating the statistics, I'm just presenting them and letting people make their own judgements.

Part of your argument was to use the differentiation between 100 and 96 to run up a tally, but hiding the fact it is a 4% difference. Not really a cogent argument unless it was a political debate and you're trying to hide the truth from some naive populace. "I pay at least a 13% tax rate every year." The fact that ADP produced better as a rookie and early in his career than Calvin is such a "no duh" argument that the only response I can have is "yes I watched football before this year." I remember Jon Kitna and Drew Stanton. Perhaps Green has landed in a better situation and his ~100 VBD this year will match Peterson's career trajectory. Certainly at this point is not out of the quesiton. Jerry Rice's VBD puts ADP's to shame, even early on, because he landed in such an elite situation. Moss' VBD is comparable to ADP's, because he landed in a very good situation. Sorry for being condescending, but I just think the whole argument is flawed and was offput that it was presented with such slight of hand.
Again, I don't see what the sleight of hand is. Calvin Johnson's second best season (pro-rating this year's stats) is 96 VBD. Adrian Peterson's worst season (pro-rating last year's stats) is 100 VBD. 100 VBD > 96 VBD. Adrian Peterson's WORST season is better than Calvin Johnson's SECOND BEST season.Look, I never said that Adrian Peterson's worst season blew Calvin Johnson's second best season out of the water. I never implied that Adrian Peterson's worst season was several orders of magnitude better than Calvin's second best season. You're absolutely right that the difference is just 4%. Adrian Peterson's WORST SEASON was 4% better than Calvin Johnson's SECOND BEST SEASON. Yes, 4% is not a lot more, but the amazing fact here is that Peterson's worst season is *ANY* better than Calvin's second best season. The amazing thing here is that Calvin Johnson is on pace to set an NFL record for most receiving yards in a single season and it would still only qualify as the worst fantasy season of Adrian Peterson's entire 6-year career. Calvin is having a career year, a record-setting year, and he's putting up VBD numbers that Adrian Peterson has beaten- not smashed, not demolished, but nevertheless still topped- in each and every single season of his entire career. Calvin Johnson has rung up fewer VBD this season than Stevan Ridley. I do not know how to illustrate any more starkly than this just how huge of a gap in value there is between elite RBs and elite WRs on a season-by-season basis. Calvin Johnson is going to break NFL records this year, records that have never before been seriously threatened, and despite that he's still not as valuable as a time-share back in a pass-happy offense. He's in his prime, playing out of his mind as the only real target on the most pass happy offense the NFL has ever seen (Stafford and the Lions are both on pace to break the single season pass attempt record for an individual and a team), and he's still being bested by more than a half dozen different RBs.I'm not saying this to score political points. I've already said that I'd draft Calvin before Peterson in a startup. I'd draft him an entire round before, in fact. I'd take Calvin with a top 3 pick in a startup, and would be sorely, sorely tempted to take him #1 overall. Calvin Johnson is a first ballot HoFer who is just beginning his assault on the record books. By the time he retires, there's a great chance he'll be seen as the second greatest WR to ever play the game. I'm not stacking the deck in Peterson's favor because I'm on some sort of pro-Peterson bandwagon and I want to con everyone else on this forum into joining me. I'm simply pointing out that despite all of this ridiculous praise for Calvin, the first ballot HoF, record-setting, never-before-seen athletic talent, his second best season WOULD BE ADRIAN PETERSON'S WORST SEASON. Because RB, the position, is so ludicrously, dramatically, mind-bogglingly more valuable on a year-by-year basis that a bad season by Peterson's standards trumps one of the greatest WR seasons in the history of the national football league.I do not know why this is such a controversial statement. Again, Stevan Ridley- STEVAN RIDLEY- has more VBD than Calvin Johnson this year. Runningback is more valuable, on a season-by-season basis, than wide receiver- especially in today's NFL, where pass-happy offenses are raising the WR baseline and RBBCs are lowering the RB baseline. It's possible for wide receivers to make up that per-year value difference because they have much more longevity (and, as I've said twice already now, I fully expect Calvin to make up that per-year value differential, which is why I'd draft him before Peterson), but anyone who denies that such a value differential exists is just burying their head in the sand. This is not spin, this is not sleight of hand, this is not a trick or me pulling a fast one, this is just raw, pure, unvarnished truth.In case anyone still thinks I'm trying to massage the data, or obfuscate the issue, here is the season-by-season VBD totals for each player (all seasons pro-rated to 16 games), sorted from high to low.Peterson: 160, 140, 137, 120, 103, 100Calvin: 149, 96, 88, 81, 43, 0 (rookie year)A great year by an RB is substantially more valuable than a great year by a WR. Toss out his rookie year and Calvin has averaged 5.71 VBD per game. Adrian Peterson, on the other hand, has averaged 7.92. That's 38.7% more per game. That seems about right- you should expect an RB to be 33-40% more valuable than a comparable WR in any given season. As I said, WRs get a chance to make that up on the back end thanks to their extended careers, but you cannot deny that the advantage exists. Even if you want to go to the all-time greats, that advantage exists. LaDainian Tomlinson averaged 33-40% more VBD per game than Randy Moss. Marshall Faulk averaged 33-40% more VBD per game than Marvin Harrison. Shaun Alexander averaged 33-40% more VBD per game than Terrell Owens. The only WR in history who has racked up VBD like an RB was Jerry Rice (he had 9 different 100+ VBD seasons), but as we all know, Jerry Rice is the exception, not the rule.

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Yes, 4% is not a lot more, but the amazing fact here is that Peterson's worst season is *ANY* better than Calvin's second best season.

Drew Stanton, etc.

Calvin is having a career year,

From a fantasy perspective, that was last year. His TD rate this year is obviously below his mean. You're still trying to use stats to cloud common sense. Statements like:

The amazing thing here is that Calvin Johnson is on pace to set an NFL record for most receiving yards in a single season and it would still only qualify as the worst fantasy season of Adrian Peterson's entire 6-year career.

are laughable. Is it really that amazing? Do you expect him to average .42 TD/gm going forward. Value in standard leagues varies a lot with TD production. Stevan Ridley, etc.

Peterson: 160, 140, 137, 120, 103, 100Calvin: 149, 96, 88, 81, 43, 0 (rookie year)A great year by an RB is substantially more valuable than a great year by a WR.

Your numbers imply otherwise. A great year by a WR is within 10% of a great year by a RB. At least with the numbers in front of me. And that 160 is projected based on ADP continuing his current pace.

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I was simply illustrating how insanely much more valuable RBs are than WRs on a year to year basis. I'm not manipulating the statistics, I'm just presenting them and letting people make their own judgements.

Part of your argument was to use the differentiation between 100 and 96 to run up a tally, but hiding the fact it is a 4% difference. Not really a cogent argument unless it was a political debate and you're trying to hide the truth from some naive populace. "I pay at least a 13% tax rate every year." The fact that ADP produced better as a rookie and early in his career than Calvin is such a "no duh" argument that the only response I can have is "yes I watched football before this year." I remember Jon Kitna and Drew Stanton. Perhaps Green has landed in a better situation and his ~100 VBD this year will match Peterson's career trajectory. Certainly at this point is not out of the quesiton. Jerry Rice's VBD puts ADP's to shame, even early on, because he landed in such an elite situation. Moss' VBD is comparable to ADP's, because he landed in a very good situation. Sorry for being condescending, but I just think the whole argument is flawed and was offput that it was presented with such slight of hand.
Again, I don't see what the sleight of hand is. Calvin Johnson's second best season (pro-rating this year's stats) is 96 VBD. Adrian Peterson's worst season (pro-rating last year's stats) is 100 VBD. 100 VBD > 96 VBD. Adrian Peterson's WORST season is better than Calvin Johnson's SECOND BEST season.Look, I never said that Adrian Peterson's worst season blew Calvin Johnson's second best season out of the water. I never implied that Adrian Peterson's worst season was several orders of magnitude better than Calvin's second best season. You're absolutely right that the difference is just 4%. Adrian Peterson's WORST SEASON was 4% better than Calvin Johnson's SECOND BEST SEASON. Yes, 4% is not a lot more, but the amazing fact here is that Peterson's worst season is *ANY* better than Calvin's second best season. The amazing thing here is that Calvin Johnson is on pace to set an NFL record for most receiving yards in a single season and it would still only qualify as the worst fantasy season of Adrian Peterson's entire 6-year career. Calvin is having a career year, a record-setting year, and he's putting up VBD numbers that Adrian Peterson has beaten- not smashed, not demolished, but nevertheless still topped- in each and every single season of his entire career. Calvin Johnson has rung up fewer VBD this season than Stevan Ridley. I do not know how to illustrate any more starkly than this just how huge of a gap in value there is between elite RBs and elite WRs on a season-by-season basis. Calvin Johnson is going to break NFL records this year, records that have never before been seriously threatened, and despite that he's still not as valuable as a time-share back in a pass-happy offense. He's in his prime, playing out of his mind as the only real target on the most pass happy offense the NFL has ever seen (Stafford and the Lions are both on pace to break the single season pass attempt record for an individual and a team), and he's still being bested by more than a half dozen different RBs.I'm not saying this to score political points. I've already said that I'd draft Calvin before Peterson in a startup. I'd draft him an entire round before, in fact. I'd take Calvin with a top 3 pick in a startup, and would be sorely, sorely tempted to take him #1 overall. Calvin Johnson is a first ballot HoFer who is just beginning his assault on the record books. By the time he retires, there's a great chance he'll be seen as the second greatest WR to ever play the game. I'm not stacking the deck in Peterson's favor because I'm on some sort of pro-Peterson bandwagon and I want to con everyone else on this forum into joining me. I'm simply pointing out that despite all of this ridiculous praise for Calvin, the first ballot HoF, record-setting, never-before-seen athletic talent, his second best season WOULD BE ADRIAN PETERSON'S WORST SEASON. Because RB, the position, is so ludicrously, dramatically, mind-bogglingly more valuable on a year-by-year basis that a bad season by Peterson's standards trumps one of the greatest WR seasons in the history of the national football league.I do not know why this is such a controversial statement. Again, Stevan Ridley- STEVAN RIDLEY- has more VBD than Calvin Johnson this year. Runningback is more valuable, on a season-by-season basis, than wide receiver- especially in today's NFL, where pass-happy offenses are raising the WR baseline and RBBCs are lowering the RB baseline. It's possible for wide receivers to make up that per-year value difference because they have much more longevity (and, as I've said twice already now, I fully expect Calvin to make up that per-year value differential, which is why I'd draft him before Peterson), but anyone who denies that such a value differential exists is just burying their head in the sand. This is not spin, this is not sleight of hand, this is not a trick or me pulling a fast one, this is just raw, pure, unvarnished truth.In case anyone still thinks I'm trying to massage the data, or obfuscate the issue, here is the season-by-season VBD totals for each player (all seasons pro-rated to 16 games), sorted from high to low.Peterson: 160, 140, 137, 120, 103, 100Calvin: 149, 96, 88, 81, 43, 0 (rookie year)A great year by an RB is substantially more valuable than a great year by a WR. Toss out his rookie year and Calvin has averaged 5.71 VBD per game. Adrian Peterson, on the other hand, has averaged 7.92. That's 38.7% more per game. That seems about right- you should expect an RB to be 33-40% more valuable than a comparable WR in any given season. As I said, WRs get a chance to make that up on the back end thanks to their extended careers, but you cannot deny that the advantage exists. Even if you want to go to the all-time greats, that advantage exists. LaDainian Tomlinson averaged 33-40% more VBD per game than Randy Moss. Marshall Faulk averaged 33-40% more VBD per game than Marvin Harrison. Shaun Alexander averaged 33-40% more VBD per game than Terrell Owens. The only WR in history who has racked up VBD like an RB was Jerry Rice (he had 9 different 100+ VBD seasons), but as we all know, Jerry Rice is the exception, not the rule.
Is it safe to assume that everyone is talking here about non-PPR? Some of the statements above simply wouldn’t make sense in PPR (which I think has become more typical than non-PPR in dynasty). Calvin’s production last year, as an example, was worth more in PPR than any year Peterson has had. Calvin's production this year, in PPR, is superior to almost any year Peterson has had (equal to Peterson's year this year). RBs in PPR are not insanely more valuable than WRs (usually even or an edge to WR). Also, are people using some "standard" positional format? VBD's are being thrown around like they are universal numbers.The emphasis on a "standard" VBD (as those being quoted) in assessing whether a RB is worth more than WR, even in non-PPR, is misplaced in dynasty imo. In non-PPR, for example, a RB is worth more in dynasty simply because RBs score so many more points than WRs in non-PPR, not because their VBDs, in the manner being calculated here, are so much greater. I can see the great value of VBD (calculated in the manner above) in redraft when every team starts off even (and league wide baselines mean more). Emphasis on VBD in redraft calculated this way makes sense to me. But in dynasty, good teams over time usually have much better RB2s and RB3s than the baseline players that I can only assume are being used when making the claims above. For determining value in dynasty, whether you have a good or bad team (hopefully a good one), all that is important is what a player will do for your team once your team is good enough to win it all. Edited by Ernol

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Is it safe to assume that everyone is talking here about non-PPR?

We're using standard because I was working off of Pro Football Reference's stats which are based on standard. Since it put Calvin already at a disadvantage, I thought it further strengthened the point. Further, PFR's definition of VBD which compares to RB24 and WR30, instead of WR36, which is another disadvantage.

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I play in two dynasty leagues. One is 2QB, the other is Superflex. In the 2QB league the team with Brady/Brees won it last season despite mediocre supporting cast outside of Calvin. This season I traded McCoy + 1.1 for Aaron Rodgers. I think I did ok, but I obviously didn't realize just how good Luck was going to be. But now I have Rodgers/Palmer/Rivers and my team is in the bye week. In the superflex I got Rodgers in our initial auction last summer. Through a bunch of trades I got Newton so Rodgers/Newton there. My teams are consistently tough to beat just because of those QB tandems.

This is my experience too. You can fudge the rest of your lineup if your QB are strong all year.- Took over a superflex PPR/IDP league this year. 3rd worst team last year. Drafted RG3 in the 1st, Wilson in the 2nd, added to Ben. 1st in total points with guys like Peerman and Draughn at RB1. Best WR in the league, but TE and IDP are ordinary.- Longtime superflex standard league. Have run with Romo/Rivers for a few years. Always in the playoffs and won last year. Despite having Ridley as RB1. Started rolling in Kaepernick or Wilson over ol Phil this year though. Team with Rodgers/Cutler would consistently make playoffs despite below average RB and WR (but never won). Literally the best RB he ever owned was Pierre Thomas.

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I'd be selling Peterson "All Day" in dynasty. Of course, I said the same thing last year and he proved me wrong by bouncing back with an absolutely monster season, but I'll let someone else in my league pin his hopes on a 28 year old RB next year. He probably only has 1.5-2 years of his peak left. If he doesn't win you the title in those two years, you'll regret picking him. I took Brian Westbrook with an early pick at a similar juncture of his career and always regretted it. Peterson is a much more talented athlete, but 1700+ carries is 1700+ carries. He's two years away from being Steven Jackson, if he's lucky.

Respect your opinion immensely EBF, but I'd like to know if there is any RB you would have 'ridden into the sunset' i.e. their early thirties. This is hypothetical and I'm mainly just looking backwards at guys like Barry, Emmitt, or maybe Curtis Martin. It seems to me that Peterson is a once in lifetime talent and comparing him to SJax in 2yrs is just wrong. Opinions vary but sometimes it's just plain to see that some players are just special. This past year for ADP has been epic, and I truly believe we're seeing something historic. All players have shelf lives, and I'm sure you could sell him EXTREMELY high, but SJAX ain't no ADP:)Disclaimer: Been lurking this thread from the get go, so I can take any 'tough love' or flaming coming my way. I rode Barry into the sunset and don't regret it one bit....I think ADP is similar.
I wouldn't be surprised if you're completely right. Obviously he's a freak athlete. One of the best talents of his generation. It's just not my style at all to pay a high price for a 28 year old RB, which is what he'll be soon. The "I'll take the points now" approach has never worked for me. I've seen it work for other owners, but it's not my game. A few years back I did a startup where I planned to take MJD in the first round and Calvin in the 2nd. I positioned myself just right to land both of those guys. But then Brian Westbrook fell to me in the first (this was when he was scoring 30 ppg) and Randy Moss in the 2nd (after his monster Patriots year). I passed on MJD for Westbrook and Calvin for Moss. Scarred me for life. Hindsight makes it obvious how bad those moves were, but at the time Westbrook was legitimately ranked neck-and-neck with MJD and Moss was considered a top 3 dynasty WR. So the "I'll take the points now" argument that people use to pump up guys like Foster and Peterson fall on deaf ears with me. I know from personal experience that you will be absolutely STUCK with the old guy if he slips because nobody will want to pay for him. My Westbrook/Moss team made the playoffs in year one, missed the playoffs at 7-5 in year two, and sucked for years after that before finally rebounding to .500 this season. I can't help but wonder how things would've gone if I just stuck with my initial plan. Anyways, that's kind of a worst-case scenario when it comes to playing the "win now" style, but it does illustrate the sometimes overlooked downside of going with that approach. Just because a guy has been doing it for years doesn't mean he can't hit a wall. Moss was every bit the freak that Peterson is and he went from a consensus top 5 dynasty WR to basically untradeable at warp speed. Even a great player can break down almost overnight and that's why I'd be leery of a guy like Peterson as a dynasty cornerstone despite his rare talent. He'll be awesome for you...until he isn't. And at that point he'll be near worthless, like Tomlinson towards the end of his career. Not to go off on a complete tangent, but the nice thing about going with the youth-heavy approach is that there's less pressure to win right away. If things don't pan out and your team isn't competitive, you might still be poised for success because your best players are all young and still in their prime. But if you draft an old team and you miss on a few picks or a few of your guys hit the wall, all of a sudden you're staring at holes all over your roster because your assets are expiring before your very eyes. I think you can get away with building around old stars, but that approach has just as many pitfalls as the "next big thing" type of strategy where someone drafts every rookie and flashy young player hoping to have a whole team full of stars just entering their prime.

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On VBD, what are guys like Martin, Richardson and Lynch on pace to score this year in PPR?

RB24 Marcel Reece 124.8 = 0 VBD paceHamster - 238 = 150.9TR - 208.6 = 111.7Skittles - 178.7 = 71.9Ridley - 164.1 = 52.4Burner - 138.1 = 17.7WR36 T.Y. Hilton 136.9 = 0 VBD paceMegatron - 254.8 = 157.2AJG - 250.5 = 151.5Cobb - 192.7 = 74.4Miles - 156.3 = 25.9

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I'd be selling Peterson "All Day" in dynasty. Of course, I said the same thing last year and he proved me wrong by bouncing back with an absolutely monster season, but I'll let someone else in my league pin his hopes on a 28 year old RB next year. He probably only has 1.5-2 years of his peak left. If he doesn't win you the title in those two years, you'll regret picking him. I took Brian Westbrook with an early pick at a similar juncture of his career and always regretted it. Peterson is a much more talented athlete, but 1700+ carries is 1700+ carries. He's two years away from being Steven Jackson, if he's lucky.

Respect your opinion immensely EBF, but I'd like to know if there is any RB you would have 'ridden into the sunset' i.e. their early thirties. This is hypothetical and I'm mainly just looking backwards at guys like Barry, Emmitt, or maybe Curtis Martin. It seems to me that Peterson is a once in lifetime talent and comparing him to SJax in 2yrs is just wrong. Opinions vary but sometimes it's just plain to see that some players are just special. This past year for ADP has been epic, and I truly believe we're seeing something historic. All players have shelf lives, and I'm sure you could sell him EXTREMELY high, but SJAX ain't no ADP:)Disclaimer: Been lurking this thread from the get go, so I can take any 'tough love' or flaming coming my way. I rode Barry into the sunset and don't regret it one bit....I think ADP is similar.
I wouldn't be surprised if you're completely right. Obviously he's a freak athlete. One of the best talents of his generation. It's just not my style at all to pay a high price for a 28 year old RB, which is what he'll be soon. The "I'll take the points now" approach has never worked for me. I've seen it work for other owners, but it's not my game. A few years back I did a startup where I planned to take MJD in the first round and Calvin in the 2nd. I positioned myself just right to land both of those guys. But then Brian Westbrook fell to me in the first (this was when he was scoring 30 ppg) and Randy Moss in the 2nd (after his monster Patriots year). I passed on MJD for Westbrook and Calvin for Moss. Scarred me for life. Hindsight makes it obvious how bad those moves were, but at the time Westbrook was legitimately ranked neck-and-neck with MJD and Moss was considered a top 3 dynasty WR. So the "I'll take the points now" argument that people use to pump up guys like Foster and Peterson fall on deaf ears with me. I know from personal experience that you will be absolutely STUCK with the old guy if he slips because nobody will want to pay for him. My Westbrook/Moss team made the playoffs in year one, missed the playoffs at 7-5 in year two, and sucked for years after that before finally rebounding to .500 this season. I can't help but wonder how things would've gone if I just stuck with my initial plan. Anyways, that's kind of a worst-case scenario when it comes to playing the "win now" style, but it does illustrate the sometimes overlooked downside of going with that approach. Just because a guy has been doing it for years doesn't mean he can't hit a wall. Moss was every bit the freak that Peterson is and he went from a consensus top 5 dynasty WR to basically untradeable at warp speed. Even a great player can break down almost overnight and that's why I'd be leery of a guy like Peterson as a dynasty cornerstone despite his rare talent. He'll be awesome for you...until he isn't. And at that point he'll be near worthless, like Tomlinson towards the end of his career. Not to go off on a complete tangent, but the nice thing about going with the youth-heavy approach is that there's less pressure to win right away. If things don't pan out and your team isn't competitive, you might still be poised for success because your best players are all young and still in their prime. But if you draft an old team and you miss on a few picks or a few of your guys hit the wall, all of a sudden you're staring at holes all over your roster because your assets are expiring before your very eyes. I think you can get away with building around old stars, but that approach has just as many pitfalls as the "next big thing" type of strategy where someone drafts every rookie and flashy young player hoping to have a whole team full of stars just entering their prime.
Fair enough. I'll also add that I can take this approach with Peterson because I also drafted Doug Martin, so I'm set at rb for the near future. Circumstances matter in these cases for sure.

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Y'all are getting too cute with tools such as VBD, and now vs future debates. Dynasty teams are built like financial portfolios. Buy low, sell high, and invest in places that will hold value. The best way to buy low and sell high is to figure out where your talent evaluation excels. I'm good at RBs. Ain't worth a #### with WRs or QBs. I'll listen to the consensus on positions I don't do so well on, and trust my eye with RBs. Load up on the prospects you are strong at evaluating and trade off hot commodities when you can. Still loving giving Chris Johnson for Calvin. Still riding AD and Ray Rice to titles. Still regretting giving a high pick (Dez Bryant) for Mike Sims-Walker during his hot streak. For now and forever, I'm taking aim at my favorite RBs (since I'm exceptional at RB evaluation) and trading off excess for proven guys instead of flash in the pan players. Understanding where your evaluation is strongest will also help when mediocre talent goes to good places. For example, if you knew Shonn Greene would be good enough to earn a starting spot, but wasn't a star with staying power, you knew to sell him off after he had a good stretch. A lot of guys don't buy into the portfolio approach, but if you accentuate the positive in your talent evaluation, it can build repeat championship teams.

I also look at total years available. Calvin is going to be 28, and I expect 6 more studly years from him. AD is going to be 28 and I expect 3 more years from him. I'll take 6 over 3. Luck will be 24. He has 10+ years of top production to come. I'll take him over Brady, Brees and Manning. Competing team or rebuilding, I'll take the extra years.

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On VBD, what are guys like Martin, Richardson and Lynch on pace to score this year in PPR?

RB24 Marcel Reece 124.8 = 0 VBD pace

Hamster - 238 = 150.9

TR - 208.6 = 111.7

Skittles - 178.7 = 71.9

Ridley - 164.1 = 52.4

Burner - 138.1 = 17.7

WR36 T.Y. Hilton 136.9 = 0 VBD pace

Megatron - 254.8 = 157.2

AJG - 250.5 = 151.5

Cobb - 192.7 = 74.4

Miles - 156.3 = 25.9

The bolded is important and a reason why raw VBD scores don't tell the entire story. What good does Marcel Reece do for you as soon as McFadden/Goodson is back? Surely, you won't be getting replacement or baseline production. Replacement or baseline production from a RB has solid value and is much harder to secure than any other position.

I won't pretend to know how to adjust the VBD numbers or the baseline to capture that difference, but I do know it's there.

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Your numbers imply otherwise. A great year by a WR is within 10% of a great year by a RB. At least with the numbers in front of me. And that 160 is projected based on ADP continuing his current pace.

From a positional standpoint, Calvin's year is a lot more than just "great". A simple look at the top RB and top WR over the last few years will show SSOG's statement as accurate.

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I also look at total years available. Calvin is going to be 28, and I expect 6 more studly years from him. AD is going to be 28 and I expect 3 more years from him. I'll take 6 over 3. Luck will be 24. He has 10+ years of top production to come. I'll take him over Brady, Brees and Manning. Competing team or rebuilding, I'll take the extra years.

Total years is flawed, in my opinion. 5 years of production from a QB is nothing. If I told you that you get 5 more years out of Tom Brady and 5 more years of Adrian Peterson, and that both of them will finish each of those years with 100 VBD, which one would you take? Obviously, you'd take Peterson. But why? You get 5 years of equal VBD, right? The reason, and the reason comparing total years is flawed, again: 5 years of production from a QB is right around baseline, if not below it. 5 years of production from a RB is well above it; owning a top RB for 5 years gives you much more of an advantage than owning a top QB for 5 years. Edited by Concept Coop

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The bolded is important and a reason why raw VBD scores don't tell the entire story. What good does Marcel Reece do for you as soon as McFadden/Goodson is back? Surely, you won't be getting replacement or baseline production. Replacement or baseline production from a RB has solid value and is much harder to secure than any other position. I won't pretend to know how to adjust the VBD numbers or the baseline to capture that difference, but I do know it's there.

I think you're wrong. Maybe your strategy has led you away from this possibility. I have a 1st in points team where I started Gerhart W1, played Draughn a few weeks, eventually got to Reece, and now have moved on to Bryce Brown. Each step of the way I upgraded my production - twice by waiver moves, and once by a 5th round rookie sleeper. Whose to say Montell Owens won't get 70 yards, 4 catches, and a TD this week. Another league where I played LSH and Andre Brown at various points and kept Moreno all year for just this possibility, I used my last $28 on Owens to try and beat Instinctive this week. You can always get a guy.

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I think you're wrong. Maybe your strategy has led you away from this possibility. I have a 1st in points team where I started Gerhart W1, played Draughn a few weeks, eventually got to Reece, and now have moved on to Bryce Brown. Each step of the way I upgraded my production - twice by waiver moves, and once by a 5th round rookie sleeper. Whose to say Montell Owens won't get 70 yards, 4 catches, and a TD this week. Another league where I played LSH and Andre Brown at various points and kept Moreno all year for just this possibility, I used my last $28 on Owens to try and beat Instinctive this week. You can always get a guy.

That is all great, and it is possible. But there is so much that needs to go your way for that to work in most leagues. In a standard format, traditional waiver wire league, you're not getting Owens, Brown, Parmele, Reece, etc, unless your one of the worst teams in the league. I won't say it doesn't happen, or can't. But I think you're playing a hell of a devil's advocate if you are suggesting replacement production from a RB is as easy to find as replacement value from a WR.Even if it breaks your way, look what it cost you in terms of waiver wire $, roster spots, draft picks, etcetera. Yet most teams have Golden Tate, DHB, Santana Moss, James Jones, Nate Washington - and so forth and so on - just sitting on their rosters. There is rarely need to scramble for a WR because they are so available. Just based on that, you can't say baseline or replacement value is equal. Edited by Concept Coop

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From a positional standpoint, Calvin's year is a lot more than just "great".

I will accept that as your apology to Calvin. Thanks. That is kind of the point. He has had 2 more than great years in a row and really what are they going to do quadruple team him. Hack a shaq? Really. Peterson's year is also more than just great from a situation standpoint. SSOG leaned a lot on guys like Marshall Faulk and Alexander, but the 20+ TD RB hasn't happened much lately. Is Willie Roaf coming back into the league anytime soon and nobody told me? Frankly I would be less surprised if Calvin broke 20 TDs than any current NFL RB. Foster is in the best situation to do so but the opportunity for that is decreasing. Richardson is obviously a generational talent at the beginning of his career but Cleveland.

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From a positional standpoint, Calvin's year is a lot more than just "great".

I will accept that as your apology to Calvin. Thanks. That is kind of the point. He has had 2 more than great years in a row and really what are they going to do quadruple team him. Hack a shaq? Really. Peterson's year is also more than just great from a situation standpoint. SSOG leaned a lot on guys like Marshall Faulk and Alexander, but the 20+ TD RB hasn't happened much lately. Is Willie Roaf coming back into the league anytime soon and nobody told me? Frankly I would be less surprised if Calvin broke 20 TDs than any current NFL RB. Foster is in the best situation to do so but the opportunity for that is decreasing. Richardson is obviously a generational talent at the beginning of his career but Cleveland.
Ha ha. Please let him know that I am very sorry.My point was not to suggest ADP is more valuable than Calvin; my point was that 2 years of ADP production can be worth 4 years of Calvin production in a lot of leagues. Lets use Trent as an example, and assume both he and Calvin have healhty careers. If Trent can play 6 seasons of 100 VBD football, and Calvin has 6 seasons of 100 VBD football left, they are not equal in many formats, even some PPR. The concept of VBD or VORP is that you compare value within position first, then compare that advantage over position to other players advatage at THEIR position. Trent is one of the younger RBs in the league and should have a career MUCH longer than the average productive RB today. Calvin is right at baseline and will offer the average career of a top 25 option, based on duration of production alone. That was my point. ADP and Calvin were simply names to prove the point above.ETA: This is where understanding VBD in a dynasty setting is beneficial; trading Bowe for MJD because "Bowe will last longer". Trading Romo for Gore. Trading Torrey for Forte. Letting your league draft the widening tier of young, talented WRs (Calvin, Green exceptions - draft them), while you get one of the very few elite young RBs or TEs, and take advantage of the widening 2nd and 3rd WR tiers in later rounds. Edited by Concept Coop

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ETA: This is where understanding VBD in a dynasty setting is beneficial; trading Bowe for MJD because "Bowe will last longer". Trading Romo for Gore. Trading Torrey for Forte. Letting your league draft the widening tier of young, talented WRs (Calvin, Green exceptions - draft them), while you get one of the very few elite young RBs or TEs, and take advantage of the widening 2nd and 3rd WR tiers in later rounds.

I would humbly suggest it very much depends on your team's portfolio overall, as another poster alluded to. If you're in rebuild mode, I would absolutely take the WRs in this instance. If I were thinking I could compete and felt I had the WR depth to lose I understand the move. I feel talking about moves in a vacuum is tough, as no moves are made in a vacuum. (Well start up drafts arguably.) I trust myself to trade into favorable buy low RBs when I need to (Peyton Hillis back then, Spiller more recently.) so I don't focus on drafting RBs as much in a start up. I guess it depends on where you feel your skill set is, but it might just be a question of style. I don't think anyone can counter-argue the value of RBs, or the durability of WRs, but depending on skill set, we all get there via different methods. As for Calvin, I suggest he's one of a kind, and might be close to the #1 dynasty asset, not trading him for anything, I'd rather try and find the next Alfred Morris and make that my problem, then lose the "once in a generation" player.

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Yet most teams have Golden Tate, DHB, Santana Moss, James Jones, Nate Washington - and so forth and so on - just sitting on their rosters. There is rarely need to scramble for a WR because they are so available. Just based on that, you can't say baseline or replacement value is equal.

One caveat with the list you're provided is total lack of reliability. A replacement RB is more likely to provide a consistent number of touches. Guys like Moss, DHB, and even Tate can disappear due to gameplan or game situation. James Jones is the only guy in that list who has offered anything to hang your hat on. Most of those guys are guys you don't really want to devote roster space to, IMO, and had less impact than Reece this year. Bryce Brown is RB40 and 0 VBD YTD but obviously is a monster who will win guys leagues most likely.

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How are Aaron Hernandez owners approaching 2013?

Do you see his injury history as bad luck, or do you see it as a trend that is cause for serious concern going forward?

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Yet most teams have Golden Tate, DHB, Santana Moss, James Jones, Nate Washington - and so forth and so on - just sitting on their rosters. There is rarely need to scramble for a WR because they are so available. Just based on that, you can't say baseline or replacement value is equal.

One caveat with the list you're provided is total lack of reliability. A replacement RB is more likely to provide a consistent number of touches. Guys like Moss, DHB, and even Tate can disappear due to gameplan or game situation. James Jones is the only guy in that list who has offered anything to hang your hat on. Most of those guys are guys you don't really want to devote roster space to, IMO, and had less impact than Reece this year. Bryce Brown is RB40 and 0 VBD YTD but obviously is a monster who will win guys leagues most likely.
There are plenty others - Bess, Hartline - and we could find more reliable examples, even some with upside. But if they are less roster worthy than RBs like Reece, Parmele, etc, I think that goes to further my point.

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