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I don't think he's worthless, but what would you give up to acquire him?At this point he's a dynasty RB3 for me. I'd like to have him in my back pocket, but I'd never want to build a team around the assumption that he's going to be startable. He's a grinder like Greene or Benson. On the right team he could be a quality RB2. I'm not sure his ceiling is much more than that.
He has really only had one elite stretch in his career. I guess we would need to define elite. His upside is average starting QB in a dynasty league (top 6-7). This is his 5th year, a year in which QBs typically "are what they are". Where I do own Ryan in the dynasty format, I am not scrambling for an upgrade. But he is certainly not what I would call elite. I can't count on him outscoring the guy across form him, and I don't think counting on him or his situation improving much is wise either.
His stats are misleading. He has had 3 huge weeks the last 3 weeks. His weeks 1-11 were awful. Most play H2H, so the fact that he was widely inconsistent this year means people who rostered Cam more than likely are watching their fantasy playoffs. Pretty simple really. I would consider him a top 10 dynasty QB, but he is a lot closer to #10 then #1. Get real homer.
I'd give you the late 1st you desire along with Ingram to get Wilson.
Not that you asked me, but just to share my opinion:It's hard to say what I would give without league specs. I wouldn't want to build around him, and wouldn't want to rely on him to start next season. But he is still a RB2, in my opinion (top 24). Ideally, If I was forced to treat Ingram as an RB2 on my roster, I would look to add a Steven Jackson-type RB3. I don't see him as a grinder, either. He is very quick, has great burst and great balance. I don't want to lump Benson in there with Greene (I think Benson had a couple years in which he was more than a guy) but Ingram's upside is much higher than Greene's; he's a better football player.
We'd have a deal there. I think Wilson and Ingram are very close in upside and current situation. Wilson's upside is sexier (Spiller), but Ingram's is equally productive (Martin).
I'm fine doing this little song and dance in other threads. But lets save it for them, yeah?
Ingram is no Martin.He is a Greene/Benson/BJGE. Pretty limited ability in space. No significant value in the passing game. He's going to need a lot of volume to have value.
He went for Rodgers straight up a couple weeks back in a pretty standard 14 team league that I play in.
They graded out very closely in the scouting process, they were drafted closely together, too. I have little doubt that Ingram would be producing close to Martin in an equally beneficial situation.
I think he was Sean's pick and everyone in NO seems to agree he is the starter now. I don't see sub-5 carry games from here on out. He's starting and I think he gets a bigger bulk of the carries when Ivory (who I also really like) is gone.
You'd be wrong then. Ingram is incapable of having the kind of game that Martin had against Oakland. Martin is a lot more explosive. He probably had more 40+ yard plays in that one game than Ingram has in his entire career. The NFL version of Mark Ingram has no real big play ability, and that's one of his major weaknesses. Again, very similar to a Benson/Greene type. A guy who can probably handle high volume and grind out yards, but not a guy who gives you a lot of "+" plays. The "they graded out very closely" stuff becomes increasingly less relevant the deeper you get into a player's career. I'm sure Moreno graded out very closely to Chris Johnson for some teams. Doesn't matter now. Martin smokes Ingram based on the eyeball test and based on virtually every objective measure of NFL performance. Higher YPC. More catches. More yards. More TDs. More big plays. A higher ratio of big plays. You name it and he's better.
It is silly to compare the basic stats of two players in such different situations. The fact that Moreno busted means nothing in the Ingram conversation.We all have different eyeball tests, and guys whose I rely on really like Ingram. And he passes mine too. No need to talk with such absoluteness.
Seems about right. I have Bobby Three Sticks, so I'll be looking elsewhere.
I will try to bump this one for you and weigh in also. I was a Ballard fan coming out (couldn't place it but really liked his productivity in the SEC and the way he ran). That said, I still worry that he is what the coaches want long term there. I think ideally, they would have liked a 3-headed monster of Brown, Ballard and Carter or even for Ballard to handle the short yardage instead of Carter. Just a gut feel there. I don't think he has generated enough buzz to get what I (and possibly you) perceive his value at but he may be a good piece to bundle for an upgrade.
While there's some truth in that, it has its limits as an argument. Putting Ingram on the Buccaneers wouldn't suddenly endow his body with qualities that he simply doesn't possess. He's not explosive. He doesn't make big plays. He can't run away from NFL defenders. He wouldn't be Doug Martin on the Bucs any more than he'd be Chris Johnson on the Titans. Different players. Different skill sets. Opportunity is a huge part of the equation and I have no doubt that Ingram would fare better on other teams in the league, but it's also important to recognize what he is/isn't as a player. To suggest that he's Doug Martin without the opportunity is a little naive. Martin is having a phenomenal year. 4.7 YPC on a lot of carries. Third in the NFL in 20+ yard rushes behind only Peterson and Spiller (and ahead of Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, and LeSean McCoy). Also has four 20+ yard receptions.
Have you looked at Martin's stats minus the bottom third of the league in run defense? 773 of his rushing yards and 6 of his TDs came against the Panthers, Chiefs, Saints, Raiders, and Eagles. If I thought you could count on this production from Martin year in and year out, then I wouldn't say Ingram could match it. I don't think Martin is a top 5 talent at RB in the NFL, so no, I am not suggesting Ingram is. And I didn't mean to suggest Ingram would have as many long runs. But in TB, next year, with as many carries, I would project 4.5/1,200/10 from Ingram, which is about what I'll project for Martin next season. In other words, about what LeGarrette Blount did, per touch, over his first 2 seasons with the team.
There's both truth and hyperbole in this statement. I agree that Ingram lacks the home run hitting ability that some of the more dynamic running backs possess. However, I also don't watch Doug Martin and get the impression that he is a bona fide home run hitter either. You reference the Oakland game and what I saw was a player who was good enough and fast enough to take it to the house when he has WIDE OPEN running lanes. I did not see a player that possessed difference making speed. Let's not overrate what Martin can and can't do in this department. He's a great player who I think will be a well above average fantasy asset for awhile for owners, but I don't necessarily chalk "top end speed" up as one of his big strengths.Also, you keep referencing Benson and Greene as the most like comparisons for Ingram, but you just as easily could be using Marshawn Lynch, Shaun Alexander, Rashard Mendenhall, Curtis Martin, hell even Emmitt Smith (to throw a truly outlandish comparison out there). These are all much more skilled versions, to varying degrees, of the players Benson or Greene are (and yes I realize this is a random list, just trying to come up with players that felt like they fit this mold when I watched them play off the top of my head). None of these guys strike me as big play threats or players that provided tons of "+" plays, but all of them are consistently capable of beating defenses, churning out yards, are able to hit the big play when it was provided (but weren't really relied on to make the big play out of nothing, like Barry Sanders or Spiller or Charles) and providing great value to their team as their carry total increases (again to varying degrees. I'm well aware that Emmitt Smith and Rashard Mendenhall do not belong in the same conversation).The point you are trying to make is that Ingram is a volume runner and requires said volume to be capable of producing at a satisfactory level of performance. I don't disagree with that, but I think it is unfair to automatically assume that Ingram would perform as essentially the worst version of a volume runner if he is ever given the chance. I happen to think he is fairly skilled and there is a lot there to like yet and could easily see him carving out very nice value.I realize I just included a lot of hyperbole and outlandish comparisons in my post (speaking of Ingram and Curtis Martin or Emmitt Smith in the same sentence), but did so to point out that I think it is equally unfair to automatically call Ingram the next Shonn Greene. We simply don't know yet- Ingram literally has an incomplete at this point of his career. Not a fail because he hasn't consistently been able to see 20+ carries like Greene and not a pass for the very same reason. We literally do not know what he is capable of other than the eye test (which he is beginning to pass with increasing regularity over the 2nd half of this season) and his pedigree. If/when he does get 20+ carries, he could "face plant" and become Shonn Greene, but I also don't put it out of the realm of possibility that he could thrive and become something like Shaun Alexander-lite. Given Ingram's current price (late 1st?), it seems like a easy gamble to take. It just must be done with a great deal of patience, as things are unlikely to change a great deal next year (but I wouldn't rule out 2014, since A LOT can and does change in the NFL over a 2 year period).ETA: I don't want to make it sound like I am hopelessly in love with Ingram. I recognize his potential bust factor. I just think that at his current price, for a player that will likely settle in somewhere between Shonn Greene and something much better than Shonn Greene, it makes too much sense not to buy. I feel his current price is more a reflection of the general disappointment over his rookie season (even though expectations for his rookie season were WAY too high to begin with) than his actual skill level. These type of players make the absolute best buys in dynasty because you are getting a discount based on perception and not actual skill or performance.
The reason I keep mentioning Greene and Benson is because they have a lot of the same limitations as Ingram. Let's not forget that Ingram is a very, very pedestrian athlete by NFL RB standards. And that's actually being generous. His workout numbers as a draft prospect were downright pitiful. 4.62 in the 40. 31.5" vert. 9'5" broad jump. That's about as bad as you can perform and still get drafted. Now, there have been some great backs with bad workout profiles. LeSean McCoy is one. Frank Gore is another. Cedric Benson is too if you want to count him. But the difference with guys like McCoy and Gore is that they proved the numbers wrong with performance on the field. McCoy really isn't a home run hitter, but even with that being the case he had a 66 yard run as a rookie, a 45 yard reception, and a 39 yard reception. Gore had a 72 yard run, a 47 yard reception, and a 31 yard reception. And they both had pretty good YPC averages all along. After 233 carries, the longest run of Ingram's career is 35 yards. The longest reception is 16 yards. When you look at his poor workout numbers and you combine it with NFL performance that doesn't in any way contradict those numbers, I think you have to start to favor the conclusion that he's simply not a very dynamic player. And it's not like the Saints don't have a big play friendly offense. Chris Ivory has a 56 yard run this season on just 36 carries. Pierre Thomas has a 48 yard run and four 19+ yard catches on fewer touches than Ingram. Sproles has a bunch of big plays too. Ingram is playing with the same supporting cast against the same opposition and making less of an impact. Ingram's profile is very similar to Greene's. In fact, if you compare Shonn Greene's 2012 season to Mark Ingram's career, they're almost identical in every way. Greene - 233 carries, 883 yards, 3.8 YPC (long 36 yards) 13 catches, 105 yards (long 21 yards)Ingram - 230 carries, 894 yards, 3.8 YPC (long 35 yards) 16 catches, 68 yards (long 16 yards)The funny thing is that I've actually been a Greene sympathizer throughout his entire career. He's better than people realize and that's why he's on the cusp of notching his second straight 1000+ yard rushing season. I've said before that I think the ability to handle a high volume of touches is a talent in and of itself. That's Greene's primary virtue. He has decent feet and power on a rock of a frame. He's just like Rudi Johnson and Cedric Benson. He gives you what's there and he doesn't break down. Nothing more. Nothing less.And that is exactly the kind of player that Mark Ingram has been thus far in his NFL career. He's serviceable. He could probably step into a starting job and put up 280 carries for 1100 yards. But he really doesn't give you a lot of added value. He doesn't make impact plays. Even some of the other guys you mentioned like Mendenhall and Lynch give you more in that department. Mendenhall has a great height/weight/speed ratio. He ran a low 4.4 at the combine. He might not be the greatest RB in the NFL, but he is actually very fast and if he gets into the open he will run to daylight. Lynch is a lot like Doug Martin. A good all-around athlete who also has a knack for making quick cuts in space. Neither guy is a sprint champion, but both have enough speed to punish you. Anyways, Ingram's combine numbers don't reflect much athletic ability. His NFL production thus far screams "Benson/Greene". When I took the time out to watch him last year, he looked about as pedestrian as the stats would suggest. If all arrows are pointing towards a Benson/Greene type of career, then that's how I'm inclined to view him. I'd gladly take him on my FF team for the right price, but he might not even be a better long term prospect than guys like Daryl Richardson, Kendall Hunter (pre-injury), and Bernard Pierce.
No, I haven't. You don't get more or less points for what a player does based on the quality of his opposition. Skinning bad teams is exactly what good players are supposed to do. I'm not going to punish Martin for that. Maybe his numbers are down against good teams. Doesn't necessarily mean much. You would expect any player to be less effective against great opponents than bad ones. Overall, he's having an amazing year. 4.7 YPC. 2nd in the NFL in yards from scrimmage. Third in the NFL in 20+ yard rushes. Playing so well that teams are starting to gameplan specifically to stop him. And all of this as a rookie whose OL has been ravaged by injuries. If you think Ingram or Blount could do this then all I can say is LOL beccause they're a fraction of the overall back that Martin is. There aren't a whole lot of guys in the league who can match his overall skill set. He's elusive. He can run with power. He can make plays in space as a receiver. He has great vision and instincts. He's a great talent on par with guys like Ray Rice, Marshawn Lynch, and Steven Jackson as a complete three down back.
No. That ship sailed a while ago.
According to FBG:45 WR Danario Alexander, SD 41 51 56 49.3 51.0 51.0
I like DX but no way I trust those knees. Not a top 12 dynasty WR.According to FBG:45 WR Danario Alexander, SD 41 51 56 49.3 51.0 51.0
44 wide receivers ahead of him?
I can barely think of ten.
If he stays in one piece for 3 more weeks, probably a sell. Love the talent, the top 10 game he's showing now is legit, but cannot trust his knees. I'm guessing he will creep into top 30's and at that point I'm moving him, like him as a 4th or 5th WR, but can't rely on him as a starter.
Keep Ivory, talent is legit but he's buried on that RB depth chart. Will need to wait for new contract to be anything unfortunately. Still, better dice roll than Hillis. Turned into a cancer in the Browns locker room and has continued lackluster play in KC.
You are seriously saying you would take DX before Fitzgerald?I own DX, but I'd deal two DX's for Fitz.
People like you are why Danario is a sell if he is still in one piece come the day after week 17. You're not accounting for the injury risk that has kept him from doing this since he left school. People that followed Danario in school are not surprised by this, they're also not surprised by his first 2 1/2 years. Special talent, absolutely no knees unfortunately.
DX on a per-game basis is near top 5 in WR scoring. And that includes the couple of games right after he was activated and just on the team, where he had 1 and 3 catches. He wasn't even playing football the first half of the season, let alone playing with this particular team and QB. That is absolutely amazing. And he's done it against all sorts of defenses and all sorts of coverages.Larry Fitzgerald turns 30 next season. He had one catch this week on ELEVEN targets. He won't even break a thousand yards this year (he's at 652 right now).
Yes, by acquiring guys like Alexander for nothing 6 weeks ago. You don't win paying a top 20 price for the high risk-high reward guy after he breaks out.
1. 30 is not old for a wide receiver. Hello to everyone who followed my THE FANTASY KING EPIPHANIES and grabbed Reggie Wayne this year.2. Unless the Cardinals come back next year with John Skelton, Kevin Kolb, and Ryan Lindley at QB, you can pretty much throw out the data on Fitzgerald this year. It's quite obvious to everyone on Earth that Fitzgerald is not the reason he is not going to break 1,000 yards.DX on a per-game basis is near top 5 in WR scoring. And that includes the couple of games right after he was activated and just on the team, where he had 1 and 3 catches. He wasn't even playing football the first half of the season, let alone playing with this particular team and QB. That is absolutely amazing. And he's done it against all sorts of defenses and all sorts of coverages.Larry Fitzgerald turns 30 next season. He had one catch this week on ELEVEN targets. He won't even break a thousand yards this year (he's at 652 right now).
I like big, big upside. That's how you win.
I really wish people would quit with this "Cam got figured out last season!" garbage. From weeks 11-17 (aka after the byes), Newton was the #4 fantasy QB (#5 in PPG, since Rodgers sat out week 17). His per-game average over that span (26.2) pro-rated over 13 games would rank him FIRST IN ALL OF FANTASY FOOTBALL this year. Those are some pretty spectacular mediocre numbers! His actual production this season ranks him 3rd. Somebody far, far, far smarter than I will have to explain to me just what, exactly, qualifies as mediocre about Newton's resume. The fact that people think Newton was somehow average down the stretch last year is proof positive that if you say something authoritatively enough and often enough, people will eventually believe it.
I kept Ivory, dropped Jarret Boykin instead. I have zero picks in the first four rounds next year. A guy like Hillis might be better than what is going to be there for me. He's still only going to be 27 next season.
Agree with this comparison. I'm looking to add Ingram in all my dynasty leagues. The guy's looked much much better in recent weeks. Looks a lot smoother running the ball, finding lanes. Could be due to improved health but he definitely looks more decisive and confident out there.I'd deal Wilson for Ingram and a late 1st as well.
Highly unlikely, but if the best available out there is a guy like Boykin then it's not like anyone can fault you for stashing him. 2010 clearly was a mirage.
Im calculating from Week 10, which is Carolina's game after their bye (exactly the beginning of the second half of the season), Cam averaged 25 points per game during his last 8 games (400 points over 16 games). Cam's second half is misperceived by many as being mediocre only because of what he did in the first half (28 point average - 448 points over 16 games).
Exactly, that's why you should hold onto Danario and enjoy the ride. Guy's just about as good as any WR in the league, no way am I trading him for some WR2/3 like Steve Johnson; 5 games of Danario is worth more than 16 of Steve Johnson.DX on a per-game basis is near top 5 in WR scoring. And that includes the couple of games right after he was activated and just on the team, where he had 1 and 3 catches. He wasn't even playing football the first half of the season, let alone playing with this particular team and QB. That is absolutely amazing. And he's done it against all sorts of defenses and all sorts of coverages.Larry Fitzgerald turns 30 next season. He had one catch this week on ELEVEN targets. He won't even break a thousand yards this year (he's at 652 right now).
I like big, big upside. That's how you win.
What about what he did during the five games he started in Denver as a rookie?'MAC_32 said:
I traded a late 2013 second round pick for him and a 2014 4th about three or four weeks ago and this is how I feel as well. I understand the injury risk - and so does everyone else which makes him a "hold" not a "sell" unless some one sends you some outrageous offer.The guy showed tremendous talent in the NCAAs, produced whenever he was healthy in St. Louis and has been outstanding this season. If his knees blow out again, that would be unfortunate, but selling him for a second round pick and watching him repeat his 2012 numbers in 2013 would be disasterous.'Time Kibitzer said:Exactly, that's why you should hold onto Danario and enjoy the ride. Guy's just about as good as any WR in the league, no way am I trading him for some WR2/3 like Steve Johnson; 5 games of Danario is worth more than 16 of Steve Johnson.'Otis said:DX on a per-game basis is near top 5 in WR scoring. And that includes the couple of games right after he was activated and just on the team, where he had 1 and 3 catches. He wasn't even playing football the first half of the season, let alone playing with this particular team and QB. That is absolutely amazing. And he's done it against all sorts of defenses and all sorts of coverages.Larry Fitzgerald turns 30 next season. He had one catch this week on ELEVEN targets. He won't even break a thousand yards this year (he's at 652 right now).
I like big, big upside. That's how you win.
He's not a talented runner, so he must make up for it with sheer determination and will. That ship sailed when his contract squabble contaminated the Browns locker room early last year and it hasn't recovered since.
If you truly like "big, big upside", why would you possibly cross off two guys that put up top-6 seasons in 2011?'Otis said:DX on a per-game basis is near top 5 in WR scoring. And that includes the couple of games right after he was activated and just on the team, where he had 1 and 3 catches. He wasn't even playing football the first half of the season, let alone playing with this particular team and QB. That is absolutely amazing. And he's done it against all sorts of defenses and all sorts of coverages.Larry Fitzgerald turns 30 next season. He had one catch this week on ELEVEN targets. He won't even break a thousand yards this year (he's at 652 right now).
I like big, big upside. That's how you win.
I agree to some extent - he isn't an elite talent, but he does have pretty nice speed for a back his size. The last two seasons he's been beat up by injuries so it's hard to say he's completely finished or that 2010 was "clearly was a mirage" - which can be discounted by the fact that he produced very well in Dnever also during a five game stretch where he was the starter.I own him in one league and admit I have no illusions that he's likely to be given a starting role next season or that he holds much value at all in dynasty leagues - but there are about 10 potential job openings for RBs next season so it is possible I guess. I actually think he'd fit in well with Rex Ryan if Ryan is able to keep his job with the Jets.
You win by making the best decisions to help your team. I was burned by investing in Beanie Wells at the wrong time last year and won't make the same mistake investing in the WR version of him. This Sunday was actually the first time I really watched him this year, and he looked great. He is very clearly a talent and I don't blame those high on him. But the dynasty WR1/2 talk is crazy to me. The injury baggage on this guy is a lot more than it is, even, with guys like McFadden whose injuries are not the chronic variety.'Time Kibitzer said:
I don't say it to discredit Martin, just provide some context. He's had the luxury of playing the Panthers twice, who made Andre and Bryce Brown look like Rice, Lynch, Jackson level talents. Felix Jones would have scored 4 times against the Raiders; hell, anyone with a 4.5/40 would have. I like his talent and value him very highly (top 5ish). But it's a bit early to call him Lynch, Rice, Jackson. And it's easy to undervalue Ingram based on his performance in a horrid situation. Over the first half of the year he was used as strictly a short-yardage back. If that doesn't give you reason not to use his blanket YPC, I don't know what will. Again, since starting, he has averaged 4.46 YPC; and that includes the game against the 49ers who shut the run down. I don't know how someone can have watched him over the last 6 weeks and call him Shonne Green. Hell, turn off the TV and listen to the announcers praise him - that should tell you he's not Shonne Greene. And you can LOL at the notion that Blount could potentially do what Martin is. But look at his stats over his first 2 seasons and compare for yourself. He was every bit as effective running the ball. If Blount could block and catch, he'd be the starting RB for the Bucs and be producing top 5 numbers.
Blount did. Blount's rookie year: 5.0/200/1007/6 In every game that he started, he at least had 1 run of 16+ yards. That is 11 games. Straight. He and Martin scored at nearly the exact same rate, too. What am I LOLing at, here?
