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terrance williams or hakeem nicks for 2014 and beyond?

TWilliams. Nicks hasn't been himself for years now. I'm not getting on those legs.

This is an interesting bet, I think. I also saw a deal in one of my leagues about 10 days ago of White for Williams. Really, I'm open to the possibility Nicks is tanking the year similar to what DeSean did in his contract year in order to guarantee a payday. The chances Nicks are a NFL WR1 with a new team next year are pretty high. That might not mean anything. It didn't help Wallace's value any. And if he keeps getting hurt, his value and production will never be great. Hard to say Terrance can't produce as a WR1 when he's done it for the past month but I think over the long haul Nicks' chance of re-ascending are a little higher than Terrance approximating his current pace. There are a lot of variables at play for Williams, Witten not playing great, Murray out, etc. While you can pencil him in as DAL WR2 for a few years, you can also assume Austin will leave and they'll add another 2nd day draft pick or decent FA. I think its close but in this case I'd rather bet on health than youth.

I'm with Thrifty. It's a very interesting bet, but I have a much longer track record telling me Nicks is a very good receiver than I do for Williams. Nicks is a gamble, but you're gambling on something different- you're gambling on him returning to health and staying there, whereas with Williams there are a lot more moving parts that you're gambling on (Dallas's offense remaining explosive through the looming cap hell, for one).

Besides, it's not really like Williams is that much younger. Nicks is just about 21 months older than Williams. Right now, Williams is 24 and Nicks is 25 (although Williams just had a birthday and Nicks' is coming soon). So it's not like the potential reward is that much higher in the long run (compared to, say, a gamble of Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Brandon Marshall). Really, you're just gambling on which is more likely, Williams being as good as he's looked the last month or Nicks being able to get healthy ever again. As should be obvious, I'm the kind of owner who likes to gamble on the injured guy.

We're talking about years here, since Nicks has looked like a top 10 WR. Perhaps he's punted on this season - either by taking plays off or not being in shape - but I don't take that as a good sign, either. He has zero incentive to look like a shell of himself on the field. At this point - who is giving this guy money? He's a below average NFL WR2, and has been for some time. I am not very bullish on his market.

I'm willing to bet on modern medicine too, but, eventually, I want to see signs. Something. I don't think he's the same guy anymore. He's lost more than a step, and I won't be betting on him getting it back.

As for Williams, I am discovering that I am high on him, compared to the market. If he's good enough to hold the job - and I think he is - he'll be putting up high WR2 numbers for the next few years. That's if he doesn't improve and play up to his potential. The Dallas WR2 job, as it stands, is one of the more productive spots for a WR. I think that holds, as long as the current parts are in place. How much of a bump would we give Decker if he resigns in Denver? I think this situation is just as favorable.

ETA: I can see the other side, too. I just feel good about Williams' chances and am done investing in Nicks.

Edited by Concept Coop

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I offered a first round pick (mid) for T. Williams in a dynasty league after his game @ philly and was shot down pretty quickly. He's in a great situation with an elite QB throwing to him.

Edited by water1

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I offered a first round pick (mid) for T. Williams in a dynasty league after his game @ philly and was shot down pretty quickly. He's in a great situation with an elite QB throwing to him.

I offered Spiller for Williams and a likely top 4-6 pick, and it was declined. Start 4 WR league.

I think I'll continue making a push for him everywhere, but at least a few of his owners are holding, at least.

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terrance williams or hakeem nicks for 2014 and beyond?

TWilliams. Nicks hasn't been himself for years now. I'm not getting on those legs.

This is an interesting bet, I think. I also saw a deal in one of my leagues about 10 days ago of White for Williams. Really, I'm open to the possibility Nicks is tanking the year similar to what DeSean did in his contract year in order to guarantee a payday. The chances Nicks are a NFL WR1 with a new team next year are pretty high. That might not mean anything. It didn't help Wallace's value any. And if he keeps getting hurt, his value and production will never be great. Hard to say Terrance can't produce as a WR1 when he's done it for the past month but I think over the long haul Nicks' chance of re-ascending are a little higher than Terrance approximating his current pace. There are a lot of variables at play for Williams, Witten not playing great, Murray out, etc. While you can pencil him in as DAL WR2 for a few years, you can also assume Austin will leave and they'll add another 2nd day draft pick or decent FA. I think its close but in this case I'd rather bet on health than youth.

I'm with Thrifty. It's a very interesting bet, but I have a much longer track record telling me Nicks is a very good receiver than I do for Williams. Nicks is a gamble, but you're gambling on something different- you're gambling on him returning to health and staying there, whereas with Williams there are a lot more moving parts that you're gambling on (Dallas's offense remaining explosive through the looming cap hell, for one).

Besides, it's not really like Williams is that much younger. Nicks is just about 21 months older than Williams. Right now, Williams is 24 and Nicks is 25 (although Williams just had a birthday and Nicks' is coming soon). So it's not like the potential reward is that much higher in the long run (compared to, say, a gamble of Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Brandon Marshall). Really, you're just gambling on which is more likely, Williams being as good as he's looked the last month or Nicks being able to get healthy ever again. As should be obvious, I'm the kind of owner who likes to gamble on the injured guy.

We're talking about years here, since Nicks has looked like a top 10 WR. Perhaps he's punted on this season - either by taking plays off or not being in shape - but I don't take that as a good sign, either. He has zero incentive to look like a shell of himself on the field. At this point - who is giving this guy money? He's a below average NFL WR2, and has been for some time. I am not very bullish on his market.

I'm willing to bet on modern medicine too, but, eventually, I want to see signs. Something. I don't think he's the same guy anymore. He's lost more than a step, and I won't be betting on him getting it back.

As for Williams, I am discovering that I am high on him, compared to the market. If he's good enough to hold the job - and I think he is - he'll be putting up high WR2 numbers for the next few years. That's if he doesn't improve and play up to his potential. The Dallas WR2 job, as it stands, is one of the more productive spots for a WR. I think that holds, as long as the current parts are in place. How much of a bump would we give Decker if he resigns in Denver? I think this situation is just as favorable.

ETA: I can see the other side, too. I just feel good about Williams' chances and am done investing in Nicks.

If things remained as they currently are in perpetuity, I would agree that the WR2 job in Dallas is a premium spot for fantasy. I'm just much less confident that it will remain such a plush job with the Cowboys already $31 million over next year's cap. That's definitely a team with the potential to go really bad, really fast.

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If things remained as they currently are in perpetuity, I would agree that the WR2 job in Dallas is a premium spot for fantasy. I'm just much less confident that it will remain such a plush job with the Cowboys already $31 million over next year's cap. That's definitely a team with the potential to go really bad, really fast.

It will be interesting - that's for sure. Miles is the only obvious cut on offense, with Free playing much better, off the top of my head. Not sure how they're going to account for the rest.

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So where are you guys slotting Lacy in your RB rankings?

I'm not updating again until next Monday/Tuesday, but it's looking likely Lacy will be in my top 10 once I do.

Do you mind if I ask why you're so low on Alshon Jeffery (WR32)? He has measurables and pedigree and seems to be in the midst of a 2nd year breakout with a stable (if not particularly QB rich) franchise and yet he falls behind low-upside guys like Amendola and Shorts.

Well, for starters, I don't view either Amendola or Shorts as anything close to "low-upside" guys in PPR leagues. Shorts' numbers after taking over as a starter last year were insane- something like a 1400 yard pace, IIRC. If not for the concussion worries, Shorts would be higher, still. As for Amendola... Julian Edelman is currently WR20 in PPR leagues. JULIAN EDELMAN. Edelman is a bare shadow of Amendola. If Amendola can stay healthy (yeah, yeah, I know- big if), he could easily put up top-12 numbers as the slot receiver in the Patriots' offense. If anything, I would characterize Amendola and Shorts as just the opposite of "low-upside"; I'd call them huge high-risk, high-reward plays.

To some extent, there's a bit of a numbers crunch at receiver. There are more than 10 guys I'd love to fit into my 20-29 range right now, and some of them get squeezed out. Why Alshon? Because I try to make a point of downgrading players who have had a huge game below where my gut reaction would have me put them. Even at the half-season mark, one huge game can have a huge impact on total numbers when there hasn't been enough of a chance for regression to do its work yet. Intuitively, I see an exciting young prospect like Alshon have a monster game and my first instinct is to just go nuts and shoot them up the board. I find that slightly discounting guys with a huge game on their resume often prevents me from overreacting and doing something that I'll regret later.

I guess we disagree on what constitutes high upside. Shorts is #2 in the NFL in targets this year and he's WR19 in ppr scoring. This is his upside.

Amendola's a 28-year old who can't stay healthy and whose best season is 85/689/3 and WR30 in ppr. He's not Edelman, but he's also not Welker.

It's perfectly within reason to cast a skeptical eye towards Jeffery based on the small sample size, but I don't see how he's a lower ceiling guy than those 2 when he's shown the ability to put up a 37-pointer within the first 16 games of his career.

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I guess we disagree on what constitutes high upside. Shorts is #2 in the NFL in targets this year and he's WR19 in ppr scoring. This is his upside.

Why would this be his upside, and not last season? He's on one of the worst situations in the league, for a WR. I don't understand suggesting this is as good as it gets for him.

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I guess we disagree on what constitutes high upside. Shorts is #2 in the NFL in targets this year and he's WR19 in ppr scoring. This is his upside.

Why would this be his upside, and not last season? He's on one of the worst situations in the league, for a WR. I don't understand suggesting this is as good as it gets for him.

If we were playing with Peyton Manning, sure his per target efficiency would probably be higher. But his # of targets would also come down. He also benefited from Blackmon being out for the first 4 games, at least in terms of targets.

I think it might be more accurate to say that there is A LOT of usage downside rather than this is definitely as good as it gets.

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We're talking about years here, since Nicks has looked like a top 10 WR.

He was a top 10 caliber WR in 2011. That is 1.5 seasons ago. He finished just outside the top 10 in the regular season but had 28/444/4 receiving in 4 postseason games.

And that postseason run is why a team will give him a big contract to be their WR1.

Edited by Just Win Baby

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We're talking about years here, since Nicks has looked like a top 10 WR.

He was a top 10 caliber WR in 2011. That is 1.5 seasons ago. He finished just outside the top 10 in the regular season but had 28/444/4 receiving in 4 postseason games.

And that postseason run is why a team will give him a big contract to be their WR1.

If we're going to nitpick, years: >1; 1.5 >1; 1.5 = years.

I don't see a team giving him a big contract. At least as far as guaranteed money goes. But that is just my guess, and likely not worth much.

Edited by Concept Coop

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23 WR Justin Blackmon, JAX (Robinson, Koren)

:(

Buy low, and hope he gets some serious help during his time off. Alcoholism is tough, but tons of people beat it.

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23 WR Justin Blackmon, JAX (Robinson, Koren)

:(

Buy low, and hope he gets some serious help during his time off. Alcoholism is tough, but tons of people beat it.

This is what I'm attempting as well.

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23 WR Justin Blackmon, JAX (Robinson, Koren)

:(

Buy low, and hope he gets some serious help during his time off. Alcoholism is tough, but tons of people beat it.

I don't think this is alcohol, as it's not a banned substance.

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So where are you guys slotting Lacy in your RB rankings?

I'm not updating again until next Monday/Tuesday, but it's looking likely Lacy will be in my top 10 once I do.

Do you mind if I ask why you're so low on Alshon Jeffery (WR32)? He has measurables and pedigree and seems to be in the midst of a 2nd year breakout with a stable (if not particularly QB rich) franchise and yet he falls behind low-upside guys like Amendola and Shorts.

Well, for starters, I don't view either Amendola or Shorts as anything close to "low-upside" guys in PPR leagues. Shorts' numbers after taking over as a starter last year were insane- something like a 1400 yard pace, IIRC. If not for the concussion worries, Shorts would be higher, still. As for Amendola... Julian Edelman is currently WR20 in PPR leagues. JULIAN EDELMAN. Edelman is a bare shadow of Amendola. If Amendola can stay healthy (yeah, yeah, I know- big if), he could easily put up top-12 numbers as the slot receiver in the Patriots' offense. If anything, I would characterize Amendola and Shorts as just the opposite of "low-upside"; I'd call them huge high-risk, high-reward plays.

To some extent, there's a bit of a numbers crunch at receiver. There are more than 10 guys I'd love to fit into my 20-29 range right now, and some of them get squeezed out. Why Alshon? Because I try to make a point of downgrading players who have had a huge game below where my gut reaction would have me put them. Even at the half-season mark, one huge game can have a huge impact on total numbers when there hasn't been enough of a chance for regression to do its work yet. Intuitively, I see an exciting young prospect like Alshon have a monster game and my first instinct is to just go nuts and shoot them up the board. I find that slightly discounting guys with a huge game on their resume often prevents me from overreacting and doing something that I'll regret later.

I guess we disagree on what constitutes high upside. Shorts is #2 in the NFL in targets this year and he's WR19 in ppr scoring. This is his upside.

Amendola's a 28-year old who can't stay healthy and whose best season is 85/689/3 and WR30 in ppr. He's not Edelman, but he's also not Welker.

It's perfectly within reason to cast a skeptical eye towards Jeffery based on the small sample size, but I don't see how he's a lower ceiling guy than those 2 when he's shown the ability to put up a 37-pointer within the first 16 games of his career.

I never said that Alshon Jeffery was lower-upside than the other two. I never said anything at all about his upside. You asked me how I could rank Jeffery behind two low-upside guys, and I merely replied that I didn't.

As for Shorts... No WR is at his upside when his QBs are Chad Henne/Blaine Gabbert and he's playing in the worst offense in the league by a massive margin. Might as well say that Larry Fitzgerald was at his upside with the Kolb/Skelton/Hall/Hoyer/Barf nonsense because he got a ton of targets. Or say that Andre Johnson reached his upside with David Carr when he was throwing the ball a ton. Targets do not determine upside entirely on their own. And, as has been mentioned, I don't understand how Shorts' upside could be lower than his actual performance last season, where he was a top-10 fantasy WR upon earning the starting job.

Danny Amendola might not be Welker (I personally think he can do a pretty fair imitation, if his body holds up), but I think a quality slot receiver in New England's offense is a 110-120 catch kind of guy. That's pretty huge upside in PPR leagues, even if it only nets him 1200 yards and 6 TDs.

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I kind of like the idea of buying now as well, depending on what the price settles at over the next couple days. I remember a few years back in a 1.5 PPR TE league I had a chance to get Brandon Marshall after one of his incidents (stabbing?) straight up for Jermaine Gresham. That deal was available partially because Gresham was still thought to be a hot prospect at the time and partially because the Marshall owner panicked over the bad news and offered him way below his real value. I passed on the deal and that proved to be a huge mistake.

Blackmon's issues run a little deeper than Marshall's. He's obviously got some very serious substance abuse/commitment problems. It's not one or two isolated incidents, but a destructive pattern of behavior in which he can't seem to steer clear of sabotaging himself. So I think it's clear that a pretty hefty downgrade is warranted based on the prospect of him turning out like Charles Rogers or Koren Robinson.

On the other hand, there's obvious appeal for the same reason that there has been from day one. There simply aren't a lot of guys walking around on the planet with top 10 overall NFL WR ability. I'm inclined to think you take those guys wherever you can find them and hope for the best with regards to injuries and knucklehead issues. I haven't decided what I would give up for Blackmon today, but a late 1st would be tempting in PPR. A random 2nd seems like a no-brainer.

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We're talking about years here, since Nicks has looked like a top 10 WR.

He was a top 10 caliber WR in 2011. That is 1.5 seasons ago. He finished just outside the top 10 in the regular season but had 28/444/4 receiving in 4 postseason games.

And that postseason run is why a team will give him a big contract to be their WR1.

If we're going to nitpick, years: >1; 1.5 >1; 1.5 = years.

I don't see a team giving him a big contract. At least as far as guaranteed money goes. But that is just my guess, and likely not worth much.

If we're really going to nitpick, "Years" doesn't equal "greater than 1", it equals "2 or more". If I moved somewhere on January 1st, 2013, then I would not on January 2nd, 2014 say "I've lived here for years!", even though I had at that point lived there for longer than one single year. I wouldn't say it in February or March, either. Maybe by October or November I'd start rounding up, but in my mind that's what I'd be doing- explicitly rounding up to 2, because years = minimum of 2.

Of course, if we want to continue picking nits, you could just as easily respond that that's nearly two CALENDAR years, and you're free to round up. Which seems reasonable. It's not been nearly two LEAGUE years, so I wouldn't think we could yet round up on that part, but typically when someone means LEAGUE years instead of CALENDAR years, they refer to them as "seasons", instead.

Yay, semantics!

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As an addendum to that, I agree with something ConnSkins said in the Blackmon suspension thread, which is that almost every time one of these "bad news" scenarios has come along, buying low has proven to be the correct long term play. That applies to injuries and also off-field stuff. Lynch with his issues. Benson with his arrest. Marshall with all of his problems.

Chris Henry was still playing in the NFL at the time of his death and even Pac Man Jones has managed to bounce back somewhat.

Maybe this is the end of the road for Blackmon and the precursor to a Charles Rogers-like implosion of all future value. He seems to be a much more severe case than mild screw ups like Lynch and Benson, but if the backlash is too severe I'll definitely keep a seat open on my teams. There's another Jaguar WR with addiction problems who had a pretty good career in the NFL.

Edited by EBF
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I've got a bunch of offers out across 4 different leagues for him. All PPR. All to win now teams.

1. Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell

2. Greg Jennings

3. Marlon Brown

4. Dwayne Bowe

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23 WR Justin Blackmon, JAX (Robinson, Koren)

:(

Blackmon is the perfect illustration of the difference between expectations and expected value. My EXPECTATIONS for Blackmon were sky-high. I thought the most likely outcome was that he turned into a dominant WR and an elite fantasy asset. At the same time, he was clearly a risky asset, and that risk had to be properly priced to determine an expected value.

The thing is, an "expected value" ranking is guaranteed to be wrong. Either Blackmon was going to stay clean, and any "expected value" ranking would look laughably low, or else Blackmon was going to get busted again, and any "expected value" ranking would prove way too high. Ranking based on EV means you're not going to nail a whole lot of rankings. At the same time, ranking based on expectations might get you a few more bullseyes, but you'll also spend much more time missing the target entirely. In the end, that risk has to be priced into a player's price tag.

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23 WR Justin Blackmon, JAX (Robinson, Koren)

:(

Buy low, and hope he gets some serious help during his time off. Alcoholism is tough, but tons of people beat it.

I don't think this is alcohol, as it's not a banned substance.

IIRC, legality was irrelevant, and Blackmon was indeed in the substance abuse program for alcohol stemming from his DUIs.

Think about it this way: marijuana is legal in Colorado and Washington, yet any Seahawks or Broncos who test positive for it are still going to find themselves in the substance abuse program. There are several hospitals in the DFW area that will fire or suspend employees who get caught smoking. Employer's substance policy trumps national substance policy for employment considerations.

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As an addendum to that, I agree with something ConnSkins said in the Blackmon suspension thread, which is that almost every time one of these "bad news" scenarios has come along, buying low has proven to be the correct long term play. That applies to injuries and also off-field stuff. Lynch with his issues. Benson with his arrest. Marshall with all of his problems.

Chris Henry was still playing in the NFL at the time of his death and even Pac Man Jones has managed to bounce back somewhat.

Maybe this is the end of the road for Blackmon and the precursor to a Charles Rogers-like implosion of all future value. He seems to be a much more severe case than mild screw ups like Lynch and Benson, but if the backlash is too severe I'll definitely keep a seat open on my teams. There's another Jaguar WR with addiction problems who had a pretty good career in the NFL.

The one thing about Blackmon is that, since his issues fall under the substance abuse policy rather than the personal conduct policy, there's no commissioner discretion when it comes to handing out punishments. Guys like Brandon Marshall, Kenny Britt, and Cedric Benson were able to repeatedly run afoul of the same policy with only minor missed time to show for it. If speculation that Blackmon is in stage 3 of the substance program is to be believed, then I believe Blackmon's already due a mandatory 1-year suspension, and every future misstep for the remainder of his entire career also carries with it a minimum 1-year vacation. I don't believe Goodell has the power to reduce it to 4 games for "good behavior" or anything.

ETA: Doesn't mean I won't send out a low-ball offer for him in all of my leagues. I'm just saying, the risk posed by Blackmon is far greater than any that was ever posed by Marshall, Britt, Adam Jones, or any of the other "problem children". That risk has to be priced accordingly. If I could get Blackmon for any of those Pu Pu Platters ConnSKINS just threw out, I'd jump at the chance. I offered some Pu Pu Platters like that for Aaron Hernandez when the news first broke, too. Those are the kind of offers where, even if it blows up in your face, it's not like you lost anything you can't replace in a heartbeat.

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23 WR Justin Blackmon, JAX (Robinson, Koren)

:(

Buy low, and hope he gets some serious help during his time off. Alcoholism is tough, but tons of people beat it.

I don't think this is alcohol, as it's not a banned substance.

IIRC, legality was irrelevant, and Blackmon was indeed in the substance abuse program for alcohol stemming from his DUIs.

Think about it this way: marijuana is legal in Colorado and Washington, yet any Seahawks or Broncos who test positive for it are still going to find themselves in the substance abuse program. There are several hospitals in the DFW area that will fire or suspend employees who get caught smoking. Employer's substance policy trumps national substance policy for employment considerations.

I don't think we're told what a player is suspended, or placed in the program for. Am I wrong?

And are we to assume that he got another DUI, or that they NFL tested him for alcohol?

Edited by Concept Coop

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23 WR Justin Blackmon, JAX (Robinson, Koren)

:(

Buy low, and hope he gets some serious help during his time off. Alcoholism is tough, but tons of people beat it.

I don't think this is alcohol, as it's not a banned substance.

IIRC, legality was irrelevant, and Blackmon was indeed in the substance abuse program for alcohol stemming from his DUIs.

Think about it this way: marijuana is legal in Colorado and Washington, yet any Seahawks or Broncos who test positive for it are still going to find themselves in the substance abuse program. There are several hospitals in the DFW area that will fire or suspend employees who get caught smoking. Employer's substance policy trumps national substance policy for employment considerations.

I don't think we're told what a player is suspended, or placed in the program for. Am I wrong?

And are we to assume that he got another DUI, or that they NFL tested him for alcohol?

I think the story would be out, if he got another DUI. That's public record and it would have been sniffed out. Especially by now.

So even though he's in the substance abuse program because of his DUI's, I'd get he failed a piss test of some sort this latest time. Because like you said, unless he's getting drunk in the locker room it's not like he's being breathalyzed hourly.

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Given that we're talking about his 3rd or 4th failure/incident in the last couple years I think he's probably in real trouble long-term.

IIRC recovery rates from alcoholism are something like 25-40%.

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As an addendum to that, I agree with something ConnSkins said in the Blackmon suspension thread, which is that almost every time one of these "bad news" scenarios has come along, buying low has proven to be the correct long term play. That applies to injuries and also off-field stuff. Lynch with his issues. Benson with his arrest. Marshall with all of his problems.

Chris Henry was still playing in the NFL at the time of his death and even Pac Man Jones has managed to bounce back somewhat.

Maybe this is the end of the road for Blackmon and the precursor to a Charles Rogers-like implosion of all future value. He seems to be a much more severe case than mild screw ups like Lynch and Benson, but if the backlash is too severe I'll definitely keep a seat open on my teams. There's another Jaguar WR with addiction problems who had a pretty good career in the NFL.

Sorry, but I think this is getting into Koren Robinson territory, he appears to have a problem with alcohol that he can not control. Anyone wants to buy low, be my guest - I wouldn't touch him in any league at this point. As I said in another thread after he was suspended for the first 4 games of this season.

So we had someone with red flags coming into the league which we were told to ignore. Now we got more baggage. This is getting into the "Fool me twice, shame on me!" category.

Edited by squistion

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I think the story would be out, if he got another DUI. That's public record and it would have been sniffed out. Especially by now.

So even though he's in the substance abuse program because of his DUI's, I'd get he failed a piss test of some sort this latest time. Because like you said, unless he's getting drunk in the locker room it's not like he's being breathalyzed hourly.

Yes. After 3, he'd be in jail.

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I'd feel better about it (in terms of it being a serious addiction issue vs just him being young and dumb) if it were a + test for weed or PEDs. Obviously way worse if it's a hard drug. All of his positive incidents were alcohol related, and you can test for it, so IMO that's probably most likely. We may never know, though.

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I'd feel better about it (in terms of it being a serious addiction issue vs just him being young and dumb) if it were a + test for weed or PEDs. Obviously way worse if it's a hard drug. All of his positive incidents were alcohol related, and you can test for it, so IMO that's probably most likely. We may never know, though.

Not unless he gets traded to the Bucs. Because Greg Schiano is a total dick who likes leaking confidential information.

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I'd feel better about it (in terms of it being a serious addiction issue vs just him being young and dumb) if it were a + test for weed or PEDs. Obviously way worse if it's a hard drug. All of his positive incidents were alcohol related, and you can test for it, so IMO that's probably most likely. We may never know, though.

The more I think about it - the more I am certain that it's not alcohol, unless it's another DUI. It's not on the banned substance list. I doubt they can legally enforce a 0 drop policy for something that's not on the list. They can't supersede their agreement with the NFPA, by amending individual contracts. It's not in the agreement, based on my skimming it.

Edited by Concept Coop

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We're talking about years here, since Nicks has looked like a top 10 WR.

He was a top 10 caliber WR in 2011. That is 1.5 seasons ago. He finished just outside the top 10 in the regular season but had 28/444/4 receiving in 4 postseason games.

And that postseason run is why a team will give him a big contract to be their WR1.

If we're going to nitpick, years: >1; 1.5 >1; 1.5 = years.

I don't see a team giving him a big contract. At least as far as guaranteed money goes. But that is just my guess, and likely not worth much.

What about a team gambling that he returns to full health and produces like he did in the past? If only takes one team to think he'll return to former glory. Look at the contract Sidney Rice signed.

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What about a team gambling that he returns to full health and produces like he did in the past? If only takes one team to think he'll return to former glory. Look at the contract Sidney Rice signed.

I think he'll get a Dola-like deal that looks a lot bigger than it is, based on a low percentage of guaranteed money. But you're right: it only takes one team. I don't expect him to get WR1 money, but what do I know? We'll see.

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Gordon or Blackmon?

Was offered Gordon for Blackmon in a HA league and turned it down. I would have done the same if I were the Gordon owner. They are the closest to the same in terms of situation, overall talent, off-field concerns as two players can get (I know Gordon is faster).

My quick take is to be a buyer on both players. Off field concerns = bull#### almost every single time in the NFL. When was the last time they turned into anything for a TALENTED player?

(Note: These concerns weren't there with Hernandez, who never had any discipline or suspension issues. He is NOT a relevant example.)

Well there is the FACT that both of them missed games this year because of "off-the-field" issues. (and when they are not on the field they can't score points). I have run what one owner called a "half-way house" fantasy team in one league, so I don't avoid these types of dudes, but I do understand that it does influence each players trade value.

but no, I am not trading him for peanuts because the off-the field issues have come true.

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Thoughts on using Blackmon to get Hopkins?

Straight up is Hopkins > Blackmon? and by how much?

Maybe I can massage this into a package.

They have Foster and Murray they are trying to turn into a WR. I have Blackmon I want to turn into something as I have Richardson and Ray Rice I've been unhappy with...

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Thoughts on using Blackmon to get Hopkins?

Straight up is Hopkins > Blackmon? and by how much?

Maybe I can massage this into a package.

They have Foster and Murray they are trying to turn into a WR. I have Blackmon I want to turn into something as I have Richardson and Ray Rice I've been unhappy with...

Maybe you can take this to the AC forum where it belongs.

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Thoughts on using Blackmon to get Hopkins?

Straight up is Hopkins > Blackmon? and by how much?

Maybe I can massage this into a package.

They have Foster and Murray they are trying to turn into a WR. I have Blackmon I want to turn into something as I have Richardson and Ray Rice I've been unhappy with...

Maybe you can take this to the AC forum where it belongs.

Just thinking out loud. Maybe you can actually contribute to the thread as I brought up two players closely ranked in FBG'S dynasty WR ranks a few days ago. Wondering how lower Blackmon falls than Hopkins at WR15

Nice try though.

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Thoughts on using Blackmon to get Hopkins?

Straight up is Hopkins > Blackmon? and by how much?

Maybe I can massage this into a package.

They have Foster and Murray they are trying to turn into a WR. I have Blackmon I want to turn into something as I have Richardson and Ray Rice I've been unhappy with...

Maybe you can take this to the AC forum where it belongs.

Just thinking out loud. Maybe you can actually contribute to the thread as I brought up two players closely ranked in FBG'S dynasty WR ranks a few days ago. Wondering how lower Blackmon falls than Hopkins at WR15

Nice try though.

This is not a dynasty trade advice thread. These team specific questions do not belong here.

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Thoughts on using Blackmon to get Hopkins?

Straight up is Hopkins > Blackmon? and by how much?

Maybe I can massage this into a package.

They have Foster and Murray they are trying to turn into a WR. I have Blackmon I want to turn into something as I have Richardson and Ray Rice I've been unhappy with...

Maybe you can take this to the AC forum where it belongs.

Just thinking out loud. Maybe you can actually contribute to the thread as I brought up two players closely ranked in FBG'S dynasty WR ranks a few days ago. Wondering how lower Blackmon falls than Hopkins at WR15

Nice try though.

This is not a dynasty trade advice thread. These team specific questions do not belong here.

Not a team specific question. Didn't post a trade just a lineup and thinking out-loud again nothing wrong with that except you being that FBG internet "tough guy" I'm allowed to ask and compare Hopkins dynasty prospects to Blackmon's and that's what I'm asking.

So again.

Hopkins dynasty prospects vs. Blackmon

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Thoughts on using Blackmon to get Hopkins?

Straight up is Hopkins > Blackmon? and by how much?

Maybe I can massage this into a package.

They have Foster and Murray they are trying to turn into a WR. I have Blackmon I want to turn into something as I have Richardson and Ray Rice I've been unhappy with...

Maybe you can take this to the AC forum where it belongs.

Just thinking out loud. Maybe you can actually contribute to the thread as I brought up two players closely ranked in FBG'S dynasty WR ranks a few days ago. Wondering how lower Blackmon falls than Hopkins at WR15

Nice try though.

This is not a dynasty trade advice thread. These team specific questions do not belong here.

Not a team specific question. Didn't post a trade just a lineup and thinking out-loud again nothing wrong with that except you being that FBG internet "tough guy" I'm allowed to ask and compare Hopkins dynasty prospects to Blackmon's and that's what I'm asking.

So again.

Hopkins dynasty prospects vs. Blackmon

Yes it was:

Maybe I can massage this into a package.

They have Foster and Murray they are trying to turn into a WR. I have Blackmon I want to turn into something as I have Richardson and Ray Rice I've been unhappy with...

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No, but this is a dynasty valuation thread. And Blackmon vs Hopkins is definitely relevant.

To me, Blackmon is around WR30 in the dynasty rankings now. (just throwing a random number that seems right to me out there, not thinking of specific guys ahead or behind).

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Thoughts on using Blackmon to get Hopkins?

Straight up is Hopkins > Blackmon? and by how much?

Maybe I can massage this into a package.

They have Foster and Murray they are trying to turn into a WR. I have Blackmon I want to turn into something as I have Richardson and Ray Rice I've been unhappy with...

Yes, and by a fair bit.

I'm pretty glad that I don't have to get a new set of rankings out until Monday, so I have a bit of time to process this Blackmon news and hopefully get some more details. My immediately, knee-jerk, gut reaction is that Blackmon drops into the mid-to-low WR3 territory. I would certainly not pay more than WR30-type prices for him at this point. If I could get him for a Stephen Hill or a Marvin Jones type player, I'd do that. Much more than that, though, and I'm balking.

I think the injury comparison here is Danario Alexander. Alexander was another guy who put up huge per-game numbers. Unfortunately, Alexander has enough of a history that we can say it's a near-certainty that he'll get banged up again, and when he does, it's a near-certainty that it'll cost him a very long stretch of time. Assuming he ever gets another chance. He was an RFA this last season, and San Diego tendered him with the lowest possible tender, and no other team even bothered signing Alexander to an offer sheet. Nobody wants to commit to him. I kind of think that that's going to be Blackmon going forward.

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Thoughts on using Blackmon to get Hopkins?

Straight up is Hopkins > Blackmon? and by how much?

I can't see anyone parting with Hopkins for Blackmon, particularly since Hopkins has already impressed and has zero off-field problems. Honestly, if anyone's trying to move Blackmon, they need to be targeting WRs that owners might have soured on or are afraid will bust. Tavon Austin comes to mind, though even that's probably shooting high.

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The problem with trying to trade Blackmon now is the same as the problem with trying to trade him after his 4 game suspension was announced. He's more talented than anyone you could realistically get for him straight up. So you either ship him out for a vastly inferior player or you hang onto him and hope that he comes back.

With WR3 types being so replaceable, I don't see myself being tempted to move him by the kind of offers people are likely to accept.

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We're talking about years here, since Nicks has looked like a top 10 WR.

He was a top 10 caliber WR in 2011. That is 1.5 seasons ago. He finished just outside the top 10 in the regular season but had 28/444/4 receiving in 4 postseason games.

And that postseason run is why a team will give him a big contract to be their WR1.

If we're going to nitpick, years: >1; 1.5 >1; 1.5 = years.

I don't see a team giving him a big contract. At least as far as guaranteed money goes. But that is just my guess, and likely not worth much.

I wasn't trying to nitpick, I was trying to clarify that it really hasn't been very long since he was a top 10 caliber WR, contrary to the implication of your post. In the interim, he has had some injury issues and his offense/team has imploded, which partially explains why he hasn't looked as good since 2011. It's not a compelling excuse, but it mitigates his performance a bit. He is 25 years old. IMO he is going to get a big contract. :shrug:

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Any links (besides FBG) to midseason dynasty rankings?

www.dynastyleaguefootball.com updates during the season, but they bury the "last updated date" so that you have to click through to each individual set of rankings to see if they're current or several months old. I've #####ed at them a couple of times about that on Twitter, and they say they're going to fix it this offseason.

FantasyPros aggregates a lot of dynasty rankings and updates during the season, but the sample size gets pretty small (for instance, right now there are only three sets of rankings updated recently enough to get included in the FantasyPros "consensus"- and the OVERALL rankings only have one expert in their "consensus".)

I believe the PFF guys update during the season, but I don't have a PFF Fantasy subscription and they're behind a paywall.

Edit: All of the PFF guys get included in the FantasyPros expert consensus, anyway.

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Any links (besides FBG) to midseason dynasty rankings?

www.dynastyleaguefootball.com updates during the season, but they bury the "last updated date" so that you have to click through to each individual set of rankings to see if they're current or several months old. I've #####ed at them a couple of times about that on Twitter, and they say they're going to fix it this offseason.

Mine at DLF are updated weekly. The last updated date display is annoying. Didn't even realize that. I'll see if I can pull some strings.

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Any links (besides FBG) to midseason dynasty rankings?

www.dynastyleaguefootball.com updates during the season, but they bury the "last updated date" so that you have to click through to each individual set of rankings to see if they're current or several months old. I've #####ed at them a couple of times about that on Twitter, and they say they're going to fix it this offseason.

Mine at DLF are updated weekly. The last updated date display is annoying. Didn't even realize that. I'll see if I can pull some strings.

Yeah, and Ryan updates a lot, too. Usually you guys have 3-4 rankings at any given time that are current enough to roll with.

I've tweeted Eric D about it a couple of times, and he told me it's on their offseason to-do list. I'll still poke a bit of fun at him about it from time to time, just because. If you could nag them into moving up the timeline, though, I wouldn't complain.

Do you have to submit your rankings to FantasyPros to get into the consensus, or are they supposed to be pulling them automatically? I noticed that your rankings were included in the offseason dynasty consensus, but they haven't added any updated rankings from any of the DLF guys since September. During the season about the only dynasty rankings they've been keeping current and including in the consensus have been the PFF guys. Not that I much mind, because I don't have a PFF fantasy membership, so I can basically just use FantasyPros to get a peek behind the curtain to see where their head's at. ;)

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I wasn't trying to nitpick, I was trying to clarify that it really hasn't been very long since he was a top 10 caliber WR, contrary to the implication of your post. In the interim, he has had some injury issues and his offense/team has imploded, which partially explains why he hasn't looked as good since 2011. It's not a compelling excuse, but it mitigates his performance a bit. He is 25 years old. IMO he is going to get a big contract. :shrug:

You could certainly be right. We'll see. I wouldn't want my NFL team to give him big money, and I won't be targeting him. Two seasons in a row doesn't feel like "not very long ao" to me. The last time he looked good, for a solid stretch, Darren McFadden was a stud.

Edited by Concept Coop

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Any links (besides FBG) to midseason dynasty rankings?

www.dynastyleaguefootball.com updates during the season, but they bury the "last updated date" so that you have to click through to each individual set of rankings to see if they're current or several months old. I've #####ed at them a couple of times about that on Twitter, and they say they're going to fix it this offseason.

Mine at DLF are updated weekly. The last updated date display is annoying. Didn't even realize that. I'll see if I can pull some strings.

Yeah, and Ryan updates a lot, too. Usually you guys have 3-4 rankings at any given time that are current enough to roll with.

I've tweeted Eric D about it a couple of times, and he told me it's on their offseason to-do list. I'll still poke a bit of fun at him about it from time to time, just because. If you could nag them into moving up the timeline, though, I wouldn't complain.

Do you have to submit your rankings to FantasyPros to get into the consensus, or are they supposed to be pulling them automatically? I noticed that your rankings were included in the offseason dynasty consensus, but they haven't added any updated rankings from any of the DLF guys since September. During the season about the only dynasty rankings they've been keeping current and including in the consensus have been the PFF guys. Not that I much mind, because I don't have a PFF fantasy membership, so I can basically just use FantasyPros to get a peek behind the curtain to see where their head's at. ;)

That's me :)

As far as Fantasy Pros, I assumed they would pull the updates, but I'll check with Eric on that.

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