Agreed. Same injury concerns about Julio. I own Jeffery in a couple league but wouldn't trade him straight up for Julio.
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- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Id have to lean Jeffrey also. Julio is superstupendous, but if he misses game time its just too costly.
cstu
Footballguy
Everything I read from doctors about his foot is that he has no higher chance of breaking it again once it's healed properly. I own both but would not trade Julio for Jeffery.
Milkman
Footballguy
In FBG's dynasty WR rankings Jeffery is 6th and Julio is 5th but there is a significant drop off between the two. I don't always agree with their rankings but I tend to agree with this one. I think it's close but Julio>Jeffery.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Milkman
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Your assets need to provide more value than they cost, to catch up to your league. To me, that means picks, prospects, and injury discounts should be the primary targets, with established (healthy:full priced) studs a luxury that comes very late in the rebuild process, when you're ready to compete. No point in paying full price for a window that you'll only use a fraction of.
This assumes a true rebuild, where even a good owner is 2-2+ years away.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Anyone else get the feeling that this is the year that Luck becomes truly untouchable? All the pieces and coach speak are lining up for him to finally be cut loose (not just in the second halves of games playing catch-up), and he's always "looked" like the next great QB to my eyes
If you don't already own him, despite his relatively hyped name value you might still be able to buy in start-1 QB leagues if you don't already have one of the few true difference makers. Now might be the time to go out and "overpay" a bit for Luck if you can afford it and then forget about your QB position for ten years.
If you don't already own him, despite his relatively hyped name value you might still be able to buy in start-1 QB leagues if you don't already have one of the few true difference makers. Now might be the time to go out and "overpay" a bit for Luck if you can afford it and then forget about your QB position for ten years.
jurb26
Footballguy
I'd love to see it happen, as a Luck owner myself. Unfortunately I don't. I don't see a true WR1 on that team who can propel Luck to fantasy domination. I like that they've added pieces, but I think a star pass catcher is still needed to reach the echelon you're talking about.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I'm not sure he's going to be one of those guys who needs a stud WR to produce stud QB numbers. Think Brees. I don't think Colston was ever a true dominating talent, but it worked with Brees. I think he's just going to spread it around and supplement with small amounts of rushing production.
Look what he had last year, he finished #5 in my league, #7 in PPG. With the WR's he had. Basically Hilton and Fleener and nothing else. Gross.
This year he's got what he had last year, plus Nicks, plus Wayne and Allen coming back, as well as Moncrief in the wings, and who knows if Rogers takes a step forward. I also can't help but expect him to take another mental step and start really outsmarting defenses. He'll still throw some picks, but it just seems like it's time for him to start really dominating games.
I don't even own him anywhere. It just seems that QB's are so undervalued in general in start-1 QB leagues that it might be a good buy opportunity before he really becomes untouchable even in those leagues.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I've made several overpay offers for Luck and haven't gotten a bite. I don't think he will become any more untouchable than he is now just due to how people view QB, but I think giving up anything other than Rd1 startup value will prove to be worth it.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Here's Jene's opinion from immediately after the injury:
I talked to him about Julio a couple other times during the year, and he always felt pretty comfortable with him. If it's really a case of a broken screw as was originally reported, then it's not even as if Jones got injured, it's a failure of his surgical equipment. The Falcons didn't seem very hesitant about picking up his 5th year option.
jeter23
Footballguy
I'm running another set of dynasty startup mock drafts. If interested in participating, just sign up here--> Mock Drafts
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I attempted to answer this question by gathering the career approximate values from pro football reference by draft class. I chose a cut off of 36AV for a player to qualify as relevant based on the scale of AV a player can earn in one season. This is generally based on values of 0-18AV a player can earn in a season. So 2 phenomenal seasons could come close to 36 but for the most part a player would need 3 or more good to great seasons to qualify. Some players accumulate AV over time just due to having a long career. But if the player is generating less than 6AV/season it would take them over 6 seasons of doing that to reach 36AV. So I think this eliminates a lot of the average type careers from qualifying.
So based on this criteria
Players above 36 career AV 1993-2005
1993 16
1994 13
1995 13
1996 14
1997 9
1998 9
1999 12
2000 11
2001 15
2002 12
2003 11
2004 14
2005 14
2006 10
12.35/season average
I stopped at 2006 because players drafted after that still have quite a few players who might make it to 36 before their careers are over. For the 2006 list there are still players going who are already above 36 but most of the list below it are done so not likely to make it.
Here are the career AV-
1993 16 above 36av
Round Pick Player Career AV
1 1 QB Drew Bledsoe 103
5 118 QB Mark Brunell 96
8 222 Qb Trent Green 94
1 10 RB Jerome Bettis 79
1 3 RB Garrison Hearst 71
1 7 WR Curtis Conway 61
1 21 RB Robert Smith 61
8 198 WR Troy Brown 55
1 16 WR Sean Dawkins 48
3 78 RB Terry Kirby 48
8 219 QB Elvis Grbac 46
1 25 WR OJ McDuffie 44
6 160 TE Frank Wycheck 43
2 41 RB Natrone Means 38
2 52 Qadry Ismail 38
5 120 RB Adrian Murrell 37
1 2 QB Rick Meir 32
6 144 RB Richie Anderson 29
2 37 TE Tony McGee 28
2 46 WR Kevin Williams 27
3 76 WR Andre Hastings 26
2 56 WR Vincent Brisby 24
2 39 TE Troy Drayton 21
2 43 RB Glyn Milburn 19
4 109 Rb Derek Brown 17
2 49 RB Roosevelt Potts 16
4 104 WR Horace Copeland 16
1 20 TE Irv Smith 14
4 89 RB Lorenzo Neal 14
2 45 RB Reggie Brooks 13
4 87 RB Ronald Moore 13
4 111 WR Russell Copeland 13
3 60 WR Lamar Thomas 12
1994 13 above 36av
Round Pick Player Career AV
1 2 RB Marshall Faulk 133
2 33 WR Isaac Bruce 102
2 42 RB Charlie Garner 73
1 21 WR Johnnie Morton 69
1 29 WR Derrick Alexander 56
7 197 QB Gus Frerotte 56
5 149 RB Dorsey Levens 54
1 6 QB Trent Dilfer 51
7 201 RB Jamal Anderson 49
2 30 WR Darnay Scott 47
2 45 WR Bert Emanuel 39
1 17 WR Charles Johnson 38
6 181 WR Bill Schroeder 38
3 73 RB Lamar Smith 32
4 109 WR Willie Jackson 29
3 91 RB Bam Morris 28
2 34 RB Eric Rhett 26
1 25 RB Greg Hill 23
1 28 RB William Floyd 22
2 44 RB Mario Bates 20
4 114 RB Raymont Harris 19
6 164 RB Lamont Warren 16
6 178 QB Jim Miller 16
3 96 WR Chris Penn 15
2 58 RB Donnell Bennett 14
2 61 TE Lonnie Johnson 13
3 92 WR Lake Dawson 12
1995 13 above 36av
Round Pick Player Career AV
3 74 RB Curtis Martin 101
1 3 QB Steve McNair 100
1 5 QB Kerry Collins 81
1 8 WR Joey Galloway 78
6 196 RB Terrell Davis 72
3 90 WR Antonio Freeman 64
2 60 QB Kordell Stewart 59
1 19 RB James Stewart 45
2 47 WR Frank Sanders 44
1 10 WR JJ Stokes 40
1 17 RB Tyrone Wheatley 39
1 18 RB Napoleon Kaufman 39
1 4 WR Michael Westbrook 38
2 48 TE Ken Dilger 35
3 67 WR Chris Sanders 29
1 9 TE Kyle Brady 26
3 66 RB William Henderson 23
4 122 TE Pete Mitchell 23
2 51 RB Terrell Fletcher 22
4 99 QB Rob Johnson 19
2 39 TE Christian Fauria 17
3 70 TE David Sloan 17
3 89 RB Rodney Thomas 17
7 222 TE Byron Chamberlain 17
7 224 RB Darick Holmes 16
6 206 RB Charles Way 15
1 21 RB Rashaan Salaam 13
3 79 RB Zack Crockett 13
5 139 WR David Dunn 13
6 192 RB Cory Schlesinger 13
1 1 RB Kijana Carter 12
3 81 WR Tamarick Vanover 12
5 137 TE Jamie Asher 12
2 45 QB Todd Collins 11
4 110 TE Eric Bjornson 11
1996 14 above 36av
Round Pick Player Career AV
1 19 Marvin Harrison 124
3 89 Terrell Owens 119
2 43 Mushin Muhammad 81
1 1 Keyshawn Johnson 78
1 14 Eddie George 77
1 24 Eric Moulds 76
5 135 Joe Horn 69
1 18 Eddie Jennison 68
1 7 Terry Glenn 67
2 34 Amani Toomer 66
4 102 Stephen Davis 57
2 52 WR Bobby Engram 53
2 35 RB Mike Alstott 48
2 42 QB Tony Banks 42
3 75 RB Moe Williams 27
1 9 TE Ricky Dudley 24
3 80 RB Karim Abdul-Jabbar 24
1 8 RB Tim Biakabutuka 23
5 153 WR Jermaine Lewis 22
7 244 TE Jay Riemersma 19
2 59 TE Ernie Conwell 17
2 56 WR Derrick Mayes 16
5 159 WR Patrick Jeffers 16
4 117 RB Richard Huntley 14
4 114 WR Charlie Jones 13
4 118 Stanley Pritchett 13
4 130 QB Danny Kanell 13
1 6 Lawrence Phillips 11
1997 9 above 36av
Round Pick Player Career AV
3 66 97RB Tiki Barber 99
1 13 97TE Tony Gonzalez 97
1 12 97RB Warrick Dunn 95
4 98 97WR Derrick Mason 87
2 42 97QB Jake Plummer 77
2 43 97RB Corey Dillon 74
3 71 97RB Duce Staley 52
1 23 97RB Antowain Smith 49
1 7 97WR Ike Hilliard 43
4 108 97WR Marcus Robinson 33
2 45 97TE Freddie Jones 25
4 115 97WR Albert Connell 25
1 16 97WR Reidel Anthony 21
3 88 97WR Dedric Ward 19
2 47 97WR Kevin Lockett 15
6 174 97TE Itula Mili 15
2 55 97RB Marc Edwards 14
4 116 97WR Keith Poole 13
7 231 97RB Jerald Sowell 12
4 104 97RB Leon Johnson 11
7 228 97TE Kris Magnum 11
1998 9 above 36av
Round Pick Player Career AV
1 1 98QB Peyton Manning 172
1 21 98WR Randy Moss 123
1 9 98RB Fred Taylor 88
3 92 98WR Hines Ward 87
6 187 98QB Matt Hasselbeck 85
3 76 98RB Ahman Green 81
3 91 98QB Brian Griese 53
4 95 98RB Michael Pittman 49
4 96 98WR Az-Zahir Hakim 38
2 60 Charlie Batch 33
2 55 Joe Jurevicius 30
2 32 Jerome Pathon 29
4 114 Tim Dwight 28
5 150 Corey Bradford 26
6 169 Bobby Shaw 26
2 34 Jacquez Green 24
2 50 Germane Crowell 23
1 16 Kevin Dyson 22
2 48 Stephen Alexander 21
4 106 Donald Hayes 17
2 37 Robert Holcombe 14
2 59 Mikhael Ricks 14
1 18 Robert Edwards 13
6 180 Fred Beasley 13
2 42 Patrick Johnson 11
3 63 Jon Ritchie 11
1999 12 above 36av
Round Pick Player Career AV
1 4 99RB Edgerrin James 114
1 2 99QB Donovan McNabb 107
1 6 99WR Torry Holt 100
1 11 99QB Daunte Culpepper 86
1 5 99RB Ricky Williams 77
7 213 99WR Donald Driver 76
4 131 99QB Aaron Brooks 65
2 46 99RB Kevin Faulk 56
3 78 99WR Marty Booker 47
4 105 99WR Brandon Stokley 46
2 53 99WR Peerless Price 43
1 8 99WR David Boston 37
2 32 Kevin Johnson 32
1 1 Tim Couch 30
6 179 Desmond Clark 27
3 95 Amos Zerous 22
6 171 Tai Streets 21
3 86 Shawn Bryson 20
1 13 Troy Edwards 19
2 50 Shaun King 18
7 218 Billy Miller 18
4 127 Olandis Gary 16
2 44 Jim Kleinsasser 14
2 42 Reggie Kelly 13
3 69 Steve Heiden 11
6 193 Martay Jenkins 11
7 208 Jed Weaver 11
2000 11 above 36av
Round Pick Player Career AV
6 199 00QB Tom Brady 145
1 5 00RB Jamal Lewis 70
1 19 00RB Shaun ALexander 70
1 8 00WR Plaxico Burress 69
3 78 00WR Laveranues Coles 67
1 7 00WR Thomas Jones 61
3 80 00WR Darrell Jackson 57
6 168 00QB Marc Bulger 57
1 18 00QB Chad Pennington 55
2 32 00WR Dennis Nothcutt 41
6 189 00RB Mike Anderson 36
2 47 Jerry Porter 34
1 10 Travis Taylor 32
5 153 Dante Hall 29
1 4 Peter Warrick 28
5 156 Sammy Morris 28
2 36 Todd Pinkston 27
3 81 Rueben Droughns 27
1 11 Ron Dayne 22
1 14 Bubba Franks 18
3 69 Dez White 18
3 68 Erron Kinney 15
1 27 Anthony Becht 12
5 165 Troy Walters 12
7 212 Tim Rattay 12
1 31 Trung Canidate 11
2001 15 above 36av
Round Pick Player Career AV
2 32 01QB Drew Brees 134
1 5 01RB LaDainian Tomlinson 129
1 30 01WR Reggie Wayne 115
3 74 01WR Steve Smith 94
1 1 01QB Michael Vick 91
2 36 01WR Chad Johnson 88
1 16 01WR Santana Moss 72
2 52 01WR Chris Chambers 57
7 204 01WR TJ Houshmandzadeh 56
1 23 01RB Deuce McAllister 54
4 100 01RB Rudi Johnson 47
1 31 01TE Todd Heap 43
2 35 01TE Alge Crumpler 41
2 58 01RB Travis Henry 41
3 80 01RB Kevan Barlow 36
1 9 Koren RObinson 35
4 124 Justin McCareins 33
2 49 Lamont Jordan 31
4 121 Correll Buckhalter 28
2 38 Anthony Thomas 27
1 15 Rod Gardner 25
6 169 Cedrick Wilson 22
2 33 Quincy Morgan 20
2 41 Robert Ferguson 18
7 224 Eric Johnson 18
2 53 Quincy Carter 16
1 25 Freddie Mitchell 13
4 109 Sage Rosenfells 13
6 198 David Martin 12
1 8 David Terrell 11
5 150 Derrick Blaylock 11
2002 12 above 36av
Round Pick Player Career AV
2 51 Clinton Portis 72
3 91 Brian Westbrook 69
4 108 David Garrard 61
2 65 Deion Branch 52
1 14 Jeremy Shockey 48
1 1 David Carr 44
2 33 Jabar Gaffney 42
2 62 Antwaan Randle El 41
6 207 Chester Taylor 40
1 13 Donte Stallworth 39
1 20 Javon Walker 39
2 36 Antonio Bryant 37
1 19 Ashley Lelie 35
4 114 Randy McMichael 33
2 56 Ladell Betts 32
2 34 DeShaun Foster 31
1 3 Joey Harrington 30
2 54 Maurice Morris 29
2 36 Josh Reed 28
2 47 Andre Davis 24
3 81 Josh McCown 24
7 253 David Givens 22
1 18 TJ Duckett 21
2 48 Reche Caldwell 20
1 21 Daniel Graham 19
1 28 Jeremy Stephens 18
4 135 Najeh Davenport 18
7 235 Ronald Curry 16
1 16 William Green 14
1 32 Patrick Ramsey 14
3 88 Chris Baker 13
6 191 Jeb Putzier 12
2 55 Doug Jolley 11
3 67 Matt Schobel 11
6 199 Adrian Peterson 11
4 99 Johnathan Wells 10
7 257 Rock Cartwright 10
2003 11 above 36av
Round Pick Player Career AV
1 03WR Andre Johnson 90
1 1 03QB Carson Palmer 88
UDFA 03TE Antonio Gates 85
2 54 03WR Anquan Boldin 78
3 69 03TE Jason Witten 70
1 23 03RB Willis McGahee 55
1 24 03TE Dallas Clark 51
1 27 03RB Larry Johnson 51
3 71 03WR Nate Burelson 46
4 124 03WR Brandon Lloyd 41
7 255 03WR Kevin Walter 36
1 7 Byron Leftwich 33
4 101 Domanick Williams 32
1 17 Bryant Johnson 26
3 74 Kevin Curtis 26
5 143 Justin Gage 25
1 22 Rex Grossman 23
3 91 Visanthe Shiancoe 23
3 93 Chris Brown 23
5 139 Bobby Wade 22
2 61 LJ Smith 21
3 96 Justin Fargas 19
4 106 Shaun McDonald 19
6 197 Arnaz Battle 18
1 19 Kyle Boller 17
5 156 Donald Lee 17
4 105 Onterrio Smith 14
4 110 Seneca Wallace 14
5 167 Doug Gabriel 14
3 65 Kelly Washington 13
4 121 Justin Griffith 11
2004 14 above 36av
Round Pick Player Career AV
1 4 04QB Phillip Rivers 107
1 11 04QB Ben Roethlisberger 94
1 1 04QB Eli Manning 89
1 3 04WR Larry Fitzgerald 72
1 24 04RB Steven Jackson 70
3 90 04QB Matt Schaub 68
5 154 04RB Michael Turner 54
1 13 04WR Lee Evans 48
4 108 04WR Jerrico Cotchery 45
1 7 04WR Roy Williams 42
1 29 04WR Michael Jenkins 39
2 43 04RB Julius Jones 38
1 6 04TE Kellen Winslow 36
2 50 04WR Devery Henderson 36
3 81 Chris Cooley 34
3 78 Bernard Berrian 33
7 216 Patrick Crayton 33
1 32 Ben Watson 31
4 119 Mewelde Moore 29
1 30 Kevin Jones 27
7 235 Derrick Ward 25
1 9 Reggie Williams 23
1 15 Michael Clayton 22
2 41 Tatum Bell 22
4 120 Ernerst Wilford 22
1 22 JP Losman 19
2 62 Keary Colbert 14
5 157 DJ Hackett 14
4 105 Samie Parker 13
2005 14 above 36av
Round Pick Player Career AV
1 24 05QB Aaron Rodgers 88
1 27 05WR Roddy White 81
3 65 05Rb Frank Gore 74
2 61 05WR Vincent Jackson 68
4 130 05RB Darren Sproles 49
1 25 05QB Jason Campbell 48
1 1 05QB Alex Smith 47
7 230 05QB Matt Cassel 44
7 250 05QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 44
1 3 05WR Braylon Edwards 41
1 30 05TE Heath Miller 40
4 109 05RB Marion Barber 40
1 4 05RB Cedric Benson 36
4 110 05RB Brandon Jacobs 36
4 106 Kyle Orton 34
1 22 Mark Clayton 27
1 5 Cadillac Williams 26
1 21 Matt Jones 22
2 35 Reggie Brown 20
6 179 Bo Scaife 20
6 213 Derek Anderson 20
3 83 Chris Henry 16
6 198 Joel Dreessen 16
2 55 Roncoe Parrish 14
1 10 Mike Williams 12
3 96 Brandon Jones 12
2 44 Jj Arrington 11
3 71 Alex Smith(TE) 11
2006 10 above 36av
Round Pick Player Career AV
2 60 06RB Maurice Jones Drew 72
1 11 06QB Jay Cutler 68
4 119 06WR Brandon Marshall 67
7 252 06WR Marques Colston 64
2 52 06WR Greg Jennings 61
1 2 06RB Reggie Bush 58
1 27 06RB DeAngelo Williams 52
1 30 06RB Joseph Addai 50
1 25 06WR Santonio Holmes 47
1 6 06TE Vernon Davis 41
1 3 Vince Young 33
4 117 Leon Washington 30
1 28 Mercedes Lewis 29
1 21 Lawrence Maroney 26
4 109 Jason Avant 25
2 61 Tony Scheffler 24
2 64 Tavararis Jackson 21
2 53 Anthony Fasano 20
3 79 Jerious Norwood 20
4 103 Brad Smith 17
4 130 Domenik Hixon 17
6 175 Delanie Walker 15
2 45 LenDale White 14
5 145 Jerome Harrison 13
1 10 Matt Leinart 12
3 82 Derek Hagan 11
2007 6 above 36av
Round Pick Player Career AV
1 07RB 7 Adrian Peterson 76
1 07WR 2 Calvin Johnson 65
1 07RB 12 Marshawn Lynch 56
1 07WR 23 Dwayne Bowe 43
3 07WR 78 James Jones 37
7 07RB 250 Ahmad Bradshaw 37
2 44 Sidney Rice 33
1 31 Greg Olsen 32
5 162 Brent Celek 30
1 9 Ted Ginn 28
2 38 Zach Miller 28
3 73 Jacoby Jones 28
1 27 Robert Meachem 26
5 142 Steve Braston 26
4 100 Michael Bush 24
2 51 Steve Smith 23
7 244 Jason Snelling 21
3 92 Trent Edwards 17
1 32 Anthony Gonzalez 16
3 92 Trent Edwards 17
2 63 Brandon Jackson 16
3 75 Laurent RObinson 16
3 79 Mike Sims Walker 16
5 153 Kevin Boss 16
2 36 Kevin Kolb 13
5 172 Legedu Naanee 13
4 129 Scott Chandler 12
4 137 LeRon McClain 12
2 52 Brian Leonard 11
I am not entirely sure this answers the question of how many players from each draft class are relevant. As many of the players who did not qualify were fantasy starters for periods of time in their careers and likely helped FF owners win some games. So that is relevant I think, those players were not top players however for a sustained period of time.
jeter23
Footballguy
az_prof
Footballguy
Don't worry about depth. If the team is that bad you don't want to somehow end up with the third pick next year instead of the first pick overall because you have better depth! Fantasy football is won by having elite players. That is your core--you can always fill in depth when your team is ready to compete with a few trades or the waiver wire.
Don't trade away your picks--any of them--when you are rebuilding.
Try to trade for picks by moving any of your older players who have value.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I like selling rookie 3rds on crappy teams to eager owners who consider them "practically 2nd rounders". I agree that they're practically late-2nd-round picks, I just disagree that late-2nds are all that valuable.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Yeah, value is value. If someone offers you an established player for a pick, don't turn it down because you need youth. Don't fall into the trap of a perpetual rebuild. You need great players not necessarily 22 year old players. The only strategy is ABC. You cannot makeover a team sitting on picks and sifting through waivers. You have to get rid of players you don't want and get players you do.
az_prof
Footballguy
Using my league's recent drafts (not scientific but at least illustrative), the third round has yielded these players of value:
2013: Da'Rick Rogers; Gino Smith; Stephan Taylor
2012: Juron Criner?; Ryan Tannenhill; Chris Givens; Bernard Pierce
2011: Jake Locker; Cam Newton; Kyle Rudolph; Andy Dalton; Kaepernick
2010: Eric Decker; Gronkowski; Aaron Hernandez
So out of 48 players (12 times 4) there have been five really good players (cam, Dalton, Kaep, Gronk; Decker); four pretty good (Rudolph, Locker, Pierce, Hernandez), and 6 question marks still worth owning.
I would say that third round picks are worth more than people may think.
az_prof
Footballguy
I agree that you don't want to always be selling off good players for picks. But when you are rebuilding, you don't want to improve your team with a handful of good, but never gonna be great players--and then see your next year draft spot fall. It is better ironically to be really bad because the difference between #1 pick and #5 is huge.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Not all draft classes are the same.
A 3rd round pick in 2013 was much less useful than a 3rd round pick in 2014
Roster size has a lot to do with it as well. If you have shorter rosters a 3rd round pick will mostly be below replacement level players. With a deeper roster you have more room to roster 3rd round caliber prospects and see if they pan out.
I do think the 3rd round picks and even later picks are more useful to a rebuilding team than a stacked team that might not be willing to cut anyone for a 3rd round prospect.
A 3rd round pick in 2013 was much less useful than a 3rd round pick in 2014
Roster size has a lot to do with it as well. If you have shorter rosters a 3rd round pick will mostly be below replacement level players. With a deeper roster you have more room to roster 3rd round caliber prospects and see if they pan out.
I do think the 3rd round picks and even later picks are more useful to a rebuilding team than a stacked team that might not be willing to cut anyone for a 3rd round prospect.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Wait, CAM NEWTON? That's crazy.
I don't disagree that 3rd rounders are worth owning. I just disagree that they're significantly more valuable than the guys available on waivers. In my league, a lot of those guys would have only cost a waiver claim at some point, not a draft pick. A 3rd round draft pick is clearly more valuable than a waiver claim, but the question is HOW MUCH more valuable. If someone offers me more than that for my 3rd rounder, I'd be happy to sell it.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Not sure what's up with your sample size. Still rosterable players in 3rd round last year from some of my leagues
A: Kelce, Bailey, Geno, Knile, T Williams, Stills, Patton, Ellington
B: Denard, Geno, T Williams, Reed, M Wilson, Escobar, Knile, Ellington, STaylor
C: Ellington, Geno, Knile, Kelce, Bailey, Reed, T Williams, Stills, Escobar, Denard
D: Denard, Bailey, Knile, Escobar, S Taylor, Ellington, Geno
I could go on. Rosterable is a pretty low threshold, but there's some quality in there.
A: Kelce, Bailey, Geno, Knile, T Williams, Stills, Patton, Ellington
B: Denard, Geno, T Williams, Reed, M Wilson, Escobar, Knile, Ellington, STaylor
C: Ellington, Geno, Knile, Kelce, Bailey, Reed, T Williams, Stills, Escobar, Denard
D: Denard, Bailey, Knile, Escobar, S Taylor, Ellington, Geno
I could go on. Rosterable is a pretty low threshold, but there's some quality in there.
cstu
Footballguy
There are certainly rosterable players in the 3rd, but you have to have deep enough rosters where you can afford to tie up roster spots for 2-3 years. Just looking at 2011 there were Kaepernick, Dalton, Ridley, Cameron and Julius Thomas in the 3rd and 4th. Very few people who drafted Cameron and JT kept them until they produced.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Yeah, almost all my leagues have at least 30 roster spots, and as you and others have said roster size can have a huge impact if you have to be economical about which you keep. But in leagues with short rosters, people know and don't value picks much outside of the top 15 or so, which defeats the conjecture you can get value trading away 3rds. I didn't have a single 30 deep league where Cameron was dropped. JT a different story of course. The 2 shallow leagues I'm in empty roster spots have about as much practical value as a 2nd.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Yeah, again, there are quality players available in the 3rd.
In one league with 270 offensive players rostered (relatively deep, imo), here are guys who were claimed off of waivers in the last three years between the end of the rookie draft and the first month of the season: Mike Glennon, Jordan Reed, Charles Clay, Riley Cooper, Marlon Brown, Andre Ellington, Bryce Brown, Danny Woodhead, Dennis Pitta, Andrew Hawkins, Brian Hartline, Julian Edelman, Brandon Myers, Fred Davis, Victor Cruz.
Is the list of guys drafted in the 3rd better than that? Yeah, for sure. The question is how MUCH better? If you can find someone willing to pay more than the difference for your 3rd round pick, you trade it, whether you're rebuilding or not. I find that most of my leaguemates tend to overestimate that difference, in my opinion, so I'm usually trading away my 3rd round pick.
Catbird
Footballguy
SOGG, as you have said at least a couple of times before, you are not primarily a draft pick guy. You like to have more time to look at players in the pros before making decisions, even if you miss out on some extremely low priced lottery ticket successes. There are a lot of others, though, that like to work the rookie lists and find the diamonds before they prove it and start to cost more. Different strokes (I really think people do best with the style they believe in - whichever that is), but I think that explains why lots of people here love those third rounders and why it works better for you to trade them to us.
I think everyone agrees with the idea that winning takes elite players, but I don't think you can fail to build depth in an effort to keep your success down and so your draft picks high. I think one of the key strategies to successful team building is gathering up the Terrance Williams and Robert Woods and Khiry Robinsons and Knile Davis' when you can (and if you have room) and to let them simmer to a better situation and more proven status (if you can spot those who will) and then package 2 or 3 of them for a guy you can use as a long term plus starter. You have to get better before you get good. Worrying about your draft position getting good if your team gets better tends to leave you not getting better unless lightening strikes, and I think waiting for that can be an unending process. I say accumulate value (preferrably youth with upside) wherever you can and cash it upward into players you want as cornerstones. You can usually do very nearly as well with the 7th rookie pick as the 3rd, and its a lot shorter distance from there to the top.
I think everyone agrees with the idea that winning takes elite players, but I don't think you can fail to build depth in an effort to keep your success down and so your draft picks high. I think one of the key strategies to successful team building is gathering up the Terrance Williams and Robert Woods and Khiry Robinsons and Knile Davis' when you can (and if you have room) and to let them simmer to a better situation and more proven status (if you can spot those who will) and then package 2 or 3 of them for a guy you can use as a long term plus starter. You have to get better before you get good. Worrying about your draft position getting good if your team gets better tends to leave you not getting better unless lightening strikes, and I think waiting for that can be an unending process. I say accumulate value (preferrably youth with upside) wherever you can and cash it upward into players you want as cornerstones. You can usually do very nearly as well with the 7th rookie pick as the 3rd, and its a lot shorter distance from there to the top.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree with your post Catbird but there is another option, which is to use every edge you can find to improve your team. I do not think it has to be either or.
From my experience people do not value 3rd round picks enough for me to bother accumulating multiple 3rd rounders very often.
I have done so before, asking for 3rd round picks from several owners thinking I could perhaps trade 3 3rd round picks for a 2nd round pick, or a player and a 3rd for a 2nd round pick type deals. I think I was able to make that work a few times, but over trial and error the additional 3rd round picks although capital (extra roster spots) did not get me very much trade value. The best time to try to move the picks is around the draft of course. But even then, if you are holding a lot of 3rd round picks and the draft is not very deep, the other owners in your league will just let you fill up your roster with flyers and hope you hold on to most of them too long. That would hurt your depth as well if you tie up too many spots on guys like this. Some of the players who do pan out will do so for another team after you were forced to cut them to pick someone else up. I remember having Rashard Jennings on a bunch of teams. Sure he did eventually become useful but not until long after I had moved on.
From several seasons of 3rd round and later picks, the depth on the roster becomes pretty good. Sometimes you can trade some of those players for value later on. But you can also find players like this on waivers.
A lot of the trades I made for 3rd round picks were because I had a free agent or two in mind that I wanted to pick up. So just trying to get some value for a roster spot instead of just dropping a guy.
From my experience people do not value 3rd round picks enough for me to bother accumulating multiple 3rd rounders very often.
I have done so before, asking for 3rd round picks from several owners thinking I could perhaps trade 3 3rd round picks for a 2nd round pick, or a player and a 3rd for a 2nd round pick type deals. I think I was able to make that work a few times, but over trial and error the additional 3rd round picks although capital (extra roster spots) did not get me very much trade value. The best time to try to move the picks is around the draft of course. But even then, if you are holding a lot of 3rd round picks and the draft is not very deep, the other owners in your league will just let you fill up your roster with flyers and hope you hold on to most of them too long. That would hurt your depth as well if you tie up too many spots on guys like this. Some of the players who do pan out will do so for another team after you were forced to cut them to pick someone else up. I remember having Rashard Jennings on a bunch of teams. Sure he did eventually become useful but not until long after I had moved on.
From several seasons of 3rd round and later picks, the depth on the roster becomes pretty good. Sometimes you can trade some of those players for value later on. But you can also find players like this on waivers.
A lot of the trades I made for 3rd round picks were because I had a free agent or two in mind that I wanted to pick up. So just trying to get some value for a roster spot instead of just dropping a guy.
The problem I find is valuing studs to this sort of mindset whilst rebuilding. If you're honest about the value of a stud, it's difficult to get what you actually should out of owners in regards to young upside whilst getting pieces, which is inevitably what you aim for most of the time when trying to rebuild and sell off a player like Megatron.
I've never struggled to move a player like I have whilst trying to move Calvin currently (In a deep rebuild). Half of it is because I end up asking for his actual value, which leaves little upside to most owners unless they're right on the cusp of contending in their view.
At the same time, whilst I might be happy holding onto Calvin perpetually, he's not going to be nearly as valuable to me or others when I'm ready to compete.
What's peoples general strategy to studs in their prime whilst in a rebuild? You simply... don't? Does it have to come with an established producer AND firsts/other young players? Are draft picks ever enough?
EBF
Footballguy
Calvin is in his production prime, but not necessarily in his value prime. He is getting older and many owners are starting to downgrade him for that reason. The fact that the vastly inferior AJ Green is valued ahead of him by a significant chunk of dynasty drafters is a testament to that. There's no universe where Green is a better player than Calvin, but he has the advantage of having his best seasons in front of him whereas much of Calvin's best production has already come and gone.
The issue you're going to face when trying to trade him is that a lot of folks won't want to pay top 5 player prices for a guy who turns 29 in the first month of the season. I don't necessarily agree with that because Calvin is one of the rare few who can score on another level even compared with the other top players at his position, but that's what it is.
I don't think there's a default one-size-fits-all answer about what you should try to get when you decide to trade a player like him. If you were convinced that some rising WR prospect (such as Watkins or Patterson) was destined for stardom then maybe you could try to land him + extras. On the other hand, if you weren't sold on any of the current prospects then maybe you could just try to get something like 3 first round rookie picks (especially if the picks have a chance to be high). If you have enough dart throws, the odds are pretty good that you're going to hit at least one bullseye. So sometimes the best course of action if you have to cash out is to just take a group of premium picks and know that between all of them you're likely to find some very good players. It's tricky with a player that good though because he's a once or twice-per-decade talent at his position, so your odds of unearthing another player of equal quality are extremely low.
I have Graham in a few leagues and it's a similar dilemma. His market value will never be higher. On the other hand, there are only 4-5 players I'd rather have (if that) and my experience has been that nobody wants to give up one of them to get Graham. So it seems to me that I'll probably end up keeping him for the duration of his career. If the right offer never comes along, you're probably better off doing that than making a deal just for the sake of making a deal. Unfortunately, there's really no concrete way to say what the right offer is and when you should take it/make it. It's kind of a case-by-case judgment call thing.
The issue you're going to face when trying to trade him is that a lot of folks won't want to pay top 5 player prices for a guy who turns 29 in the first month of the season. I don't necessarily agree with that because Calvin is one of the rare few who can score on another level even compared with the other top players at his position, but that's what it is.
I don't think there's a default one-size-fits-all answer about what you should try to get when you decide to trade a player like him. If you were convinced that some rising WR prospect (such as Watkins or Patterson) was destined for stardom then maybe you could try to land him + extras. On the other hand, if you weren't sold on any of the current prospects then maybe you could just try to get something like 3 first round rookie picks (especially if the picks have a chance to be high). If you have enough dart throws, the odds are pretty good that you're going to hit at least one bullseye. So sometimes the best course of action if you have to cash out is to just take a group of premium picks and know that between all of them you're likely to find some very good players. It's tricky with a player that good though because he's a once or twice-per-decade talent at his position, so your odds of unearthing another player of equal quality are extremely low.
I have Graham in a few leagues and it's a similar dilemma. His market value will never be higher. On the other hand, there are only 4-5 players I'd rather have (if that) and my experience has been that nobody wants to give up one of them to get Graham. So it seems to me that I'll probably end up keeping him for the duration of his career. If the right offer never comes along, you're probably better off doing that than making a deal just for the sake of making a deal. Unfortunately, there's really no concrete way to say what the right offer is and when you should take it/make it. It's kind of a case-by-case judgment call thing.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
If you are rebuilding mode and Calvin is a main peice, you could take a risk and try trading Calvin for Josh Gordon +++ picks and hope that Gordon can stay out of trouble. If this season is not winnable for you then a suspension is not as big of a deal for your long term plans.
Whatever you do don't sell him short though. He certainly has 5 quality years left of his career, which is plenty of time to find the best possible offer.
You may be able to move Calvin for maximum value in August or near the season start when owners are in their win now mind set. Also the time of year when picks and projects are at their lowest value, so time to buy.
Whatever you do don't sell him short though. He certainly has 5 quality years left of his career, which is plenty of time to find the best possible offer.
You may be able to move Calvin for maximum value in August or near the season start when owners are in their win now mind set. Also the time of year when picks and projects are at their lowest value, so time to buy.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Moving a 28 year old Calvin Johnson to "rebuild" is probably one of the reasons we end up with teams that are constantly rebuilding. I could maybe see someone deciding that they want to take the swing at getting multiple young prospects in the hope that several pan out and become worth more than Calvin's remaining career VBD, but the idea that a guy with probably 6-7 elite years left is too old for a rebuilding team is a pretty huge leap to make.
How long do people plan on rebuilding for when they go into rebuild mode? Is it going to be 5 years before you think you'll be competitive again? Entering a rebuild with that mindset is somewhat absurd.
Sure, Calvin 2 years from now will have less trade value than Calvin does now, but if you're ready to roll in two years then a 31 year old Calvin Johnson is a piece you want on your team anyway. Sometimes I wonder if people forget that they can actually use the players on their team.
How long do people plan on rebuilding for when they go into rebuild mode? Is it going to be 5 years before you think you'll be competitive again? Entering a rebuild with that mindset is somewhat absurd.
Sure, Calvin 2 years from now will have less trade value than Calvin does now, but if you're ready to roll in two years then a 31 year old Calvin Johnson is a piece you want on your team anyway. Sometimes I wonder if people forget that they can actually use the players on their team.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Calvin Johnson is without question a core player and the type of player I will usually ride until the wheels come off.
But if that was the only piece on my roster I would certainly look for the best deal I could get and consider moving him if I felt the compensation were enough. I would even be willing to take on some risk in the process to try to maximize the value on the return.
But I wouldn't trade him because of his age at all. I also would not trade him at a discount because of his age.
Do not trade away a core player without getting a core player in return. High draft picks need to pan out, but could be considered potential core players. Gordon is a big risk. No doubt about that. But a core player very near Calvin's level when playing.
But if that was the only piece on my roster I would certainly look for the best deal I could get and consider moving him if I felt the compensation were enough. I would even be willing to take on some risk in the process to try to maximize the value on the return.
But I wouldn't trade him because of his age at all. I also would not trade him at a discount because of his age.
Do not trade away a core player without getting a core player in return. High draft picks need to pan out, but could be considered potential core players. Gordon is a big risk. No doubt about that. But a core player very near Calvin's level when playing.
Discussing it in the context EBF provided, it's more of a case of why WOULDN'T you see what you can get for 'player x'. Even if they are one of the few pieces of strength to your roster.
I'm content in riding off to the sunset with him, but like with Graham, if you can replace him with a core player + upside pieces you need across the board, it's well worth discussing.
It's hardly equal context, but I was trying to move Rice all of last offseason - People were scared away by the price tag that I was offering (Well under his ranking value) because 'it's difficult to move studs'. He fell off a cliff as we all know.
(I was one of the top scorers the last few years with a championship before Rice/Nicks/Richardson fell off cliffs, with Wilson's neck taking him away as an upside young player, DJax having a bad year, Jennings finally running out of steam, etc etc)
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
The problem with having 'maximizing the trade value' of your roster as a primary goal is that it will consistently skew too young -- meaning that you NEVER have a period where all of your top guys are producing actual FF points at the same time.
To win you have to concentrate your points in time and this strategy actively works against it ever happening.
To win you have to concentrate your points in time and this strategy actively works against it ever happening.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well Josh Gordon could just blow up in your face and then you pretty much got nothing in exchange for Calvin in the suggestion I proposed. That is a huge risk. But a trade that might actually be possible if you are willing to take the risk.
You could try to get Green or a younger good core player in exchange for him instead. But those owners are not as likely to want to make a deal as the Gordon owner who may be ecstatic to have you solve their problem for them. So a trade like that becomes possible, and you can get perhaps the best value return on that type of a deal compared to other non starters.
You could try to get Green or a younger good core player in exchange for him instead. But those owners are not as likely to want to make a deal as the Gordon owner who may be ecstatic to have you solve their problem for them. So a trade like that becomes possible, and you can get perhaps the best value return on that type of a deal compared to other non starters.
cstu
Footballguy
If you're rebuilding and want Gordon then wait until he's suspended a year. He'll have much less value to a contender and you could get a much bigger haul.
However, I wouldn't do that and would prefer to trade Calvin for a younger stud like Green, Julio or Dez.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
But most owners who have Green, Julio, or Dez aren't making that deal.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I gave Demaryius, Gerhart, 1.05, 1.06, and my 2015 2nd (will be very late) for Calvin and a 2015 1st (owned by the guy who had the 1.05 this year). Part of it was a desire to trade ammo out of the WR-rich 2014 draft and into the RB-rich 2015 draft, but I figure it still works out to Demaryius/Gerhart/1.06/2015 2nd for Calvin.
With that said, I readily admit I'm not "most owners", and think it'd be rare to find a guy in one of your leagues willing to give that much up for Calvin. I view him as a full tier ahead of the Green/Dez/Demaryius/Julio quartet.
EBF
Footballguy
Not so sure about that. The guys with the most market value right now are also the guys who are scoring the most points (i.e. Charles, McCoy, Graham, Calvin, Dez, Demaryius). I think there's a stagger between market value and actual value when you talk about really young players (i.e. Sammy Watkins) and really old players (i.e. Andre Johnson). In general though, the market tends to value players according to ppg with secondary consideration given to age.
Market value is a big factor for me in all of my decisions, but I also try to keep in mind that the end purpose of accumulating wealth is to eventually (or gradually) convert it into a team that other people can't compete with. I don't really view it as distinct from people who just draft based on ppg and VBD. You're trying to reach the same goal. It's just a different route for arriving there.
I find it to be a compelling approach because you can get players with a higher VBD ceiling than their ADP peers if you're willing to eat the immediate losses. Much like how you can potentially do the same on older players if you're willing to eat the long-term losses. I've never tried going with an all-out redraft approach in a dynasty startup, but it's tempting and I might do it some time as an experiment. My preferred style is to go youth-heavy and I think that's a possible route to achieving a higher ppg/VBD ceiling than teams who just look at ppg and basically draft according to a 2-3 year window.
I actually just finished a startup draft in which I mainly used the "market value" strategy. Team looks very flat on paper, but almost all of the players have a good chance to sustain or increase their value over the next year or two, so it's going to be a really interesting platform to build from. Team is Dez, Watkins, Martin, Trent, Ebron, Hunter, A-Rob, Eifert, Bryce Brown, Stewart, P Richardson, Rivers, Ingram, A Williams, Bortles, Blackmon, A Hawkins, and Garoppolo drafted in that order for pretty typical 1 QB/2RB/3WR/2 FLEX requirements. Very grim prospects for 2014, but really interesting in the long game.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
If the "primary goal" of your roster is a to follow a certain strategy, then you should devote your high value roster capital to that strategy. It does not preclude you from using lower value assets to pursue other strategies. For example, if you prefer youth you can trade Calvin for Thomas or Dez, but then target Andre Johnson or Jason Witten to improve your lineup. Your high value asset has more long term value. Your lower value asset improves your chances this year. The benefit to devoting your elite assets to youth is your expected roster value is pretty stable. Perhaps at the expense of some lineup optimization. A downside to devoting elite assets to "win now" is that the midrange youth assets have much more risk. It's a little ironic, at least to me, that you have to be better at guessing to balance a win now roster (that is, it's hard to find lower ranked youth that hits). It's easy to find older players that offer some reliability and those players are more easily acquired than hyped midrange youth. Elite young players offer no skew disadvantage. They are expected (and in many cases guaranteed) to produce now at high levels. There are some counterexamples like Michael and Watkins, but in general you're expecting to start the player you took early. If you try to balance a "win now" roster with midrange youth, then you get skew.
cstu
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Rank the following in order of dynasty value: S.Watkins , M.Evans, K.Benjamin, B.Cooks
ETA:
It's a very tough call and I don't feel especially confident in making it. But I think Benjamin and Cooks are the top two assets today, with Sammy and Evans a bit behind (in that order). .
Benjamin is on his way to be being a sexier K.Allen (who most valued > 1.01 (Sammy)). He's a clear NFL WR1 already and his targets, production, and value will greatly benefit from it--in that order. He's tailor made for Newton and Panthers brass looks brilliant for what once looked like foolish confidence in the kid.
Cooks is the most reliant on situation, but the situation is ideal (including his rookie contract). One game in and it's not difficult to see his production matching the of the likes of Harvin and Cobb this season, potentially.
In a hypothetical no-trade league, I'd give this a lot more thought and would likely stick to my initial ranking of the 4 (Sammy, Evans, Cooks, Benjamin). But Cooks and Benjamin are going to provide instant equity and will likely be going higher in startups next off-season, if my rough projections hold.
Gun to my head: Benjamin, Cooks, Watkins, Evans.
ETA:
It's a very tough call and I don't feel especially confident in making it. But I think Benjamin and Cooks are the top two assets today, with Sammy and Evans a bit behind (in that order). .
Benjamin is on his way to be being a sexier K.Allen (who most valued > 1.01 (Sammy)). He's a clear NFL WR1 already and his targets, production, and value will greatly benefit from it--in that order. He's tailor made for Newton and Panthers brass looks brilliant for what once looked like foolish confidence in the kid.
Cooks is the most reliant on situation, but the situation is ideal (including his rookie contract). One game in and it's not difficult to see his production matching the of the likes of Harvin and Cobb this season, potentially.
In a hypothetical no-trade league, I'd give this a lot more thought and would likely stick to my initial ranking of the 4 (Sammy, Evans, Cooks, Benjamin). But Cooks and Benjamin are going to provide instant equity and will likely be going higher in startups next off-season, if my rough projections hold.
Gun to my head: Benjamin, Cooks, Watkins, Evans.
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