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I did the same thing last year in my startup and still made the playoffs. Believe Cutler is my only player over 25. It may not be a team that will win it all this year but it's set up very nicely for years to come - Foles, Gio, Sankey, Hyde, Mason, 8 top-35 WR's and 3 top 10 TE's.

Are you going to sell all of them as soon as their value peaks?

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Rank the following in order of dynasty value: S.Watkins , M.Evans, K.Benjamin, B.Cooks

ETA:

It's a very tough call and I don't feel especially confident in making it. But I think Benjamin and Cooks are the top two assets today, with Sammy and Evans a bit behind (in that order). .

Benjamin is on his way to be being a sexier K.Allen (who most valued > 1.01 (Sammy)). He's a clear NFL WR1 already and his targets, production, and value will greatly benefit from it--in that order. He's tailor made for Newton and Panthers brass looks brilliant for what once looked like foolish confidence in the kid.

Cooks is the most reliant on situation, but the situation is ideal (including his rookie contract). One game in and it's not difficult to see his production matching the of the likes of Harvin and Cobb this season, potentially.

In a hypothetical no-trade league, I'd give this a lot more thought and would likely stick to my initial ranking of the 4 (Sammy, Evans, Cooks, Benjamin). But Cooks and Benjamin are going to provide instant equity and will likely be going higher in startups next off-season, if my rough projections hold.

Gun to my head: Benjamin, Cooks, Watkins, Evans.

Edited by Concept Coop

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Rank the following in order of dynasty value: S.Watkins , M.Evans, K.Benjamin, B.Cooks

Same as I had a week ago... Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Benjamin.

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Rank the following in order of dynasty value: S.Watkins , M.Evans, K.Benjamin, B.Cooks

Same as I had a week ago... Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Benjamin.

I think that's fair. But it's greater than a week's sample size, for me personally, at least. Benjamin has looked dominant against NFL corners for a couple months now, in addition to the glowing camp reports.

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I think I'd say Watkins, Benjamin, Evans, Cooks.

Watkins was so far ahead for me it would take a lot to swing it even with the strong showing from KB.

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Cooks is the most reliant on situation,

I think you mean to say he has the best situation. There's little reason to think his skillset can't produce outside of that situation.

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Cooks is the most reliant on situation,

I think you mean to say he has the best situation. There's little reason to think his skillset can't produce outside of that situation.

How many teams utilize the slot reciever enough to produce top 15 numbers? DEN, NO, GB, NYG, NE, SEA/MINN...am I missing anyone else?

I don't think he's as plug-N-Play as the others. Slot players get paid less because they are less universal in their value.

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Cooks is the most reliant on situation,

I think you mean to say he has the best situation. There's little reason to think his skillset can't produce outside of that situation.

I will say for me that I feel like Cooks has the lowest ceiling from that crew. I see his ceiling similar to Antonio Brown or Desean Jackson. I think Watkins and Evans have a ceiling more like Dez Bryant/Julio Jones.

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Cooks is the most reliant on situation,

I think you mean to say he has the best situation. There's little reason to think his skillset can't produce outside of that situation.

I will say for me that I feel like Cooks has the lowest ceiling from that crew. I see his ceiling similar to Antonio Brown or Desean Jackson. I think Watkins and Evans have a ceiling more like Dez Bryant/Julio Jones.

Based on what? Also, what is the difference in the ceilings of Dez/Julio and Brown/Jackson?

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And actually, I want to see how Cooks is targeted with Stills on the field before being willing to move Sammy for him. Change my mind on that part, for now.

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Cooks is the most reliant on situation,

I think you mean to say he has the best situation. There's little reason to think his skillset can't produce outside of that situation.

I will say for me that I feel like Cooks has the lowest ceiling from that crew. I see his ceiling similar to Antonio Brown or Desean Jackson. I think Watkins and Evans have a ceiling more like Dez Bryant/Julio Jones.

Based on what? Also, what is the difference in the ceilings of Dez/Julio and Brown/Jackson?

Based on what I see/have seen.

The difference in upside to me is that Brown/DJax need an appropriate scheme/situation to put up top points like both had last year (and Brown still has). Dez/Julio and in the future Watkins/Evans are players I view as transcendent talents that could succeed with Mike Tice calling the plays and Joey Harrington throwing the ball.

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Cooks is the most reliant on situation,

I think you mean to say he has the best situation. There's little reason to think his skillset can't produce outside of that situation.

I will say for me that I feel like Cooks has the lowest ceiling from that crew. I see his ceiling similar to Antonio Brown or Desean Jackson. I think Watkins and Evans have a ceiling more like Dez Bryant/Julio Jones.

Based on what? Also, what is the difference in the ceilings of Dez/Julio and Brown/Jackson?

Based on what I see/have seen.

The difference in upside to me is that Brown/DJax need an appropriate scheme/situation to put up top points like both had last year (and Brown still has). Dez/Julio and in the future Watkins/Evans are players I view as transcendent talents that could succeed with Mike Tice calling the plays and Joey Harrington throwing the ball.

But Jackson has put up top points in different offenses. :shrug:

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Cooks is the most reliant on situation,

I think you mean to say he has the best situation. There's little reason to think his skillset can't produce outside of that situation.

I will say for me that I feel like Cooks has the lowest ceiling from that crew. I see his ceiling similar to Antonio Brown or Desean Jackson. I think Watkins and Evans have a ceiling more like Dez Bryant/Julio Jones.

Based on what? Also, what is the difference in the ceilings of Dez/Julio and Brown/Jackson?

Based on what I see/have seen.

The difference in upside to me is that Brown/DJax need an appropriate scheme/situation to put up top points like both had last year (and Brown still has). Dez/Julio and in the future Watkins/Evans are players I view as transcendent talents that could succeed with Mike Tice calling the plays and Joey Harrington throwing the ball.

But Jackson has put up top points in different offenses. :shrug:

Do you think he can be top 10 in the Skins offense this year? I do not and I own him in a dynasty.

He was drafted around WR17 this year... I don't think of him as a transcendent talent. It's just how I view him and rank guys in a dynasty. Dez Bryant/Julio/AJ - HOF potential. Desean Jackson/Antonio Brown - probably get to the pro bowl a few times and have some really good years.

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Cooks is the most reliant on situation,

I think you mean to say he has the best situation. There's little reason to think his skillset can't produce outside of that situation.

I will say for me that I feel like Cooks has the lowest ceiling from that crew. I see his ceiling similar to Antonio Brown or Desean Jackson. I think Watkins and Evans have a ceiling more like Dez Bryant/Julio Jones.

Based on what? Also, what is the difference in the ceilings of Dez/Julio and Brown/Jackson?

Based on what I see/have seen.

The difference in upside to me is that Brown/DJax need an appropriate scheme/situation to put up top points like both had last year (and Brown still has). Dez/Julio and in the future Watkins/Evans are players I view as transcendent talents that could succeed with Mike Tice calling the plays and Joey Harrington throwing the ball.

But Jackson has put up top points in different offenses. :shrug:

Do you think he can be top 10 in the Skins offense this year? I do not and I own him in a dynasty.

He was drafted around WR17 this year... I don't think of him as a transcendent talent. It's just how I view him and rank guys in a dynasty. Dez Bryant/Julio/AJ - HOF potential. Desean Jackson/Antonio Brown - probably get to the pro bowl a few times and have some really good years.

Do I think he can be? Sure he can. Not sure he will be.

I don't disagree with you on Cooks. I just didn't really understand the connections you were making.

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Rank the following in order of dynasty value: S.Watkins , M.Evans, K.Benjamin, B.Cooks

Same as I had a week ago... Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Benjamin.

Me too, way to early to move guys around.

I'm still not sold on Benjamin in the long term. A lot of guys put up numbers when they are the only viable wr. Look at Harry Douglas last year, or any of the endless raider or jaguar flame outs.

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Rank the following in order of dynasty value: S.Watkins , M.Evans, K.Benjamin, B.Cooks

Same as I had a week ago... Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Benjamin.

Me too, way to early to move guys around.

I'm still not sold on Benjamin in the long term. A lot of guys put up numbers when they are the only viable wr. Look at Harry Douglas last year, or any of the endless raider or jaguar flame outs.

You have to be right on your calls if and when presented--or it won't matter whether you were early or late. The moment you like Eddie Lacy more than Trent Richardson--your rankings and potential roster moves should reflect that. That will be different for all of us, as we all have access to different data points and interprit and weigh them differently as well.

Rules of thumb can be as damning as they are helpful. If Harry Douglas has anything to do with your stance on Kelvin Benjamin--I have to question how helpful the rule is.

Kelvin Benjamin is dominating NFL cornerbacks, to my eyes. If your eyes see something different, of course, ignore my stance. But that is a HUGE data point and needs to be taken into account right away, once identified.

Edited by Concept Coop

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Rank the following in order of dynasty value: S.Watkins , M.Evans, K.Benjamin, B.Cooks

Cooks

Benjamin

Watkins

Evans

All that said, that's a very temporary list. I don't think EJ Manual is going to be Buffalo's QB next season, so an upgrade in Buffalo vaults Watkins way up. Evans still seems underrated in dynasty rankings.

One comment about Benjamin: I've read just as many scouting reports that love Benjamin as reports that think he's not going to be a successful NFL receiver. So the experts seems divided on his game. Even FBGs Cecil Lammy isn't sold on Benjamin. But I find it intriguing that Carolina's backup QB came in and Benjamin still had a good fantasy performance. There are valid reasons to doubt Benjamin's game. But how many talented rookie WRs go an entire first season without a game like that?

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August 25 rookie rankings posted here - http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=706553&hl=%2Brookie+%2Brankings#entry16863610

August 25 rookie rankings
Tier 1 - Top 12 potential, most with the opportunity to perform (some) right away.
WR Brandin Cooks 20 NO 20
WR Sammy Watkins 4 BUF 20
WR Mike Evans 7 TAM 20
TE Eric Ebron 10 DET 21
WR Kelvin Benjamin 28 CAR 23
WR Jordan Matthews 42 PHI 21
WR Marqise Lee 39 JAX 22
RB Bishop Sankey 54 TEN 21
RB Carlos Hyde 57 SF 22
QB Teddy Bridgewater 32 MIN 21
WR Odell Beckham 12 Jr. NYG 21
WR Davonte Adams 53 GB 21
WR Allen Robinson 61 JAX 20
Cooks, Benjamin, Matthews, Lee have all had good training camps and performed in preseason, so they have risen in the tier. Bishop Sankey has not performed as well as expected, so he has slipped some. Carlos Hyde has entered the top tier as I mentioned he would if his path to playing time this season became more clear. Odell Beckham and Allen Robinson have not been healthy enough to evaluate.
Tier 2 - Top 24 potential at their position/delayed path to performance.
QB Johnny Manziel 22 CLE 21
QB Blake Bortles 3 JAX 22
WR Cody Latimer 56 DEN 21
RB Jeremy Hill 55 CIN 21
RB Andre Williams 113 NYG 21
RB Devonta Freeman 103 ATL 22
QB Derek Carr 36 OAK 23
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins 38 TB 21
RB Jerick McKinnon 96 MIN 22
RB Tre Mason 75 STL 20
TE Jace Amaro 49 NYJ 21
WR John Brown 91 ARI 24
RB Terrance West 94 CLE 23
RB Lache Seastrunk 186 WAS 22
WR Jarvis Landry 63 MIA 21
WR Donte Moncrief 90 IND 20
RB James White 130 NE 22
RB Damien Williams UDFA MIA 22
The second tier has gotten deeper over the last 3 months. John Brown is the biggest mover here going from watch list to tier 2. I feel like I missed the boat on him in the early evaluation process, but hope I am not over-correcting.
Tier 3 - Top 36 potential at their position/delayed path to performance.
WR Robert Herron 185 TAM 22
WR Paul Richardson 45 SEA 22
TE Richard Rodgers 98 GB 22
WR Allen Hurns UDFA JAX 22
RB Charles Sims 69 TAM 23 - Injured for 2014
QB Jimmy Garoppolo 62 NEP 22
QB Logan Thomas 120 ARI 22
WR Martavis Bryant 118 PIT 22
WR Jeff Janis 236 GB 22
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro 138 BAL 22
RB Storm Johnson 222 JAX 21
RB KaDeem Carey 117 CHI 21
QB David Fales 183 CHI 23
QB Aaron Murray 163 KC 23
RB Dri Archer 97 PIT 23
RB Alfred Blue 181 HOU 23
RB DeAnthony Thomas 124 KC 21
The biggest mover here is Allen Hurns who I did know a little bit about but did not make my previous watch list.
Tier 4 - watchlist players
WR Brandon Coleman UFA NO
WR Kevin Norwood 123 SEA 24
QB Garrett Gilbert 214 STL
RB Henry Josey UDFA PHI
RB Isaiah Crowell UDFA CLE 21
RB Marion Grice 201 SD 22
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz 65 HOU
RB Stephen Houston UDFA NE - cut - picked up by PIT
WR Delvin Street 146 DAL
WR Josh Huff 86 PHI 22
WR Bruce Ellington 106 SF
TE Crockett Gillmore 99 BAL
QB Tajh Boyd 213 NYJ
WR Michael Campanaro 218 BAL
WR Ryan Grant 142 WAS
WR Walt Powell 196 ARI
WR Matt Hazel 190 MIA
WR Jalen Saunders 104 NYJ
QB Keith Wenning 194 BAL
WR Chandler Jones UDFA CLE
WR Quincy Enunwa 209 NYJ
TE Arthur Lynch 155 MIA
WR Cody Hoffman UDFA WAS - cut
WR Mike Davis UDFA OAK - cut
TE Colt Lyerla UDFA GB 21 - cut IR
QB Brett Smith UFA TAM 21 - cut
WR Jared Abbrederis 176 GB 23 - IR
WR TJ Jones 189 DET - IR
WR Shaquelle Evans 115 NYJ -IR
TE A.C Leonard UFA MIN - cut
RB Tyler Gafney 204 CAR injured picked up by NE
QB Bryn Renner UFA DEN - cut
I didn't change too much from my list back in May. Still waiting for the final cut downs as I expect more players from this watch list to wash out, but this is how I see the rookies stacking up right now.
This was before the 4th week of preseason. So Crowell would move back to the 3rd tier after Janis or Lorenzo.
Seastrunk was unexpectedly cut. So he would drop to the top of tier 4
Edited by Biabreakable

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Evans had a hard matchup, probably the toughest of the 4. CAR only allowed 17 pass TDs last year. And he had a 6 yd TD called back on a fade. All that and the fact he got 9 targets, makes it hard to be pessimistic on him. Only 5 catches on 9 targets, but VJax had a similar game, so easy to pin it on McCown or Lovie.

I drafted Benjamin as much as anyone because he was such a value in the late 1st/early 2nd but still think he'll be up and down this year. I'm confident in his TD total being high but yardage will be variable. I'd still trade him for any of the other 3, although it gets tougher with each game. He's outmuscling guys and CAR is doing a great job calling plays for him, but are the issues he had as a prospect still there, namely speed/separation and variety of routes?

I'm equally not 100% on Cooks as an elite asset. All 4 look to be long term top 25 but will Cooks surpass that by either reliably delivering TDs or reaching higher PPR totals? I don't think those are guaranteed. Will be interested if teams try to take him away like ATL did in the 2nd half, and also how often they try to go deep to him, which would be a big difference between him and Brown/Cobb/DJax. I don't think he has been reliable on deep throws so far (although I know he was in college, etc.). His preseason aDot was sufficiently high but his bread and butter seems to be Sproles replacement (but its early).

So I guess I'm still chalk from May and NFL draft order.

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Cooks is the most reliant on situation,

I think you mean to say he has the best situation. There's little reason to think his skillset can't produce outside of that situation.

I will say for me that I feel like Cooks has the lowest ceiling from that crew. I see his ceiling similar to Antonio Brown or Desean Jackson. I think Watkins and Evans have a ceiling more like Dez Bryant/Julio Jones.

Based on what? Also, what is the difference in the ceilings of Dez/Julio and Brown/Jackson?

Based on what I see/have seen.

The difference in upside to me is that Brown/DJax need an appropriate scheme/situation to put up top points like both had last year (and Brown still has). Dez/Julio and in the future Watkins/Evans are players I view as transcendent talents that could succeed with Mike Tice calling the plays and Joey Harrington throwing the ball.

But Jackson has put up top points in different offenses. :shrug:

He's also put up a lot of seasons of not "top points". If Desean is a situation-independent talent, you have to somehow explain why his talent did not shine independent of his situation in 2011 or 2012.

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Cooks is the most reliant on situation,

I think you mean to say he has the best situation. There's little reason to think his skillset can't produce outside of that situation.

I will say for me that I feel like Cooks has the lowest ceiling from that crew. I see his ceiling similar to Antonio Brown or Desean Jackson. I think Watkins and Evans have a ceiling more like Dez Bryant/Julio Jones.
Based on what? Also, what is the difference in the ceilings of Dez/Julio and Brown/Jackson?
Based on what I see/have seen.

The difference in upside to me is that Brown/DJax need an appropriate scheme/situation to put up top points like both had last year (and Brown still has). Dez/Julio and in the future Watkins/Evans are players I view as transcendent talents that could succeed with Mike Tice calling the plays and Joey Harrington throwing the ball.

But Jackson has put up top points in different offenses. :shrug:

He's also put up a lot of seasons of not "top points". If Desean is a situation-independent talent, you have to somehow explain why his talent did not shine independent of his situation in 2011 or 2012.

Probably had something to do with him missing over 6 games. 5 in 2012 and 1.75 in 2011. He was on pace for over a 1000 yds in each of those seasons. Edited by jurb26

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I'm equally not 100% on Cooks as an elite asset. All 4 look to be long term top 25 but will Cooks surpass that by either reliably delivering TDs or reaching higher PPR totals? I don't think those are guaranteed. Will be interested if teams try to take him away like ATL did in the 2nd half, and also how often they try to go deep to him, which would be a big difference between him and Brown/Cobb/DJax. I don't think he has been reliable on deep throws so far (although I know he was in college, etc.). His preseason aDot was sufficiently high but his bread and butter seems to be Sproles replacement (but its early).

Fair points. But I'd have to ask why Sproles replacement seems to be presented as a barrier between Cooks and > top 25 value. Sproles was being used in a rotation and often out of the backfield. Put a 22 YO Sproles on the field as part of the base offense, lining up across from Jimmy, in the other slot spot...

Edited by Concept Coop

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I'm equally not 100% on Cooks as an elite asset. All 4 look to be long term top 25 but will Cooks surpass that by either reliably delivering TDs or reaching higher PPR totals? I don't think those are guaranteed. Will be interested if teams try to take him away like ATL did in the 2nd half, and also how often they try to go deep to him, which would be a big difference between him and Brown/Cobb/DJax. I don't think he has been reliable on deep throws so far (although I know he was in college, etc.). His preseason aDot was sufficiently high but his bread and butter seems to be Sproles replacement (but its early).

Fair points. But I'd have to ask why Sproles replacement seems to be presented as a barrier between Cooks and top 25 value. Sproles was being used in a rotation and often out of the backfield. Put a 22 YO Sproles on the field as part of the base offense, lining up across from Jimmy, in the other slot spot...

Just to clarify, I meant all 4 look to be good bets for top 25 WR going forward and was questioning if he could be elite, which would be a top 10 WR or top 25 overall (which I assume you're referring to). Age is on his side for sure. I don't expect him to be much different than Sanders over the next 2 years. I don't think he is as good in the open field as Cobb/DJax/Brown. Sproles averaged 77 receptions per year, which isn't elite for a WR, especially at a low YPR. Round that up to mid 80s by converting RA to receptions and you're getting closer. Based on his age, I wouldn't be surprised if his market value gets that high. Backend of WR1 could get more crowded as some guys solidify their standing better. It was a little sketchy this year with Allen, Patterson, Floyd, Brown having limited track records.

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Just to clarify, I meant all 4 look to be good bets for top 25 WR going forward and was questioning if he could be elite, which would be a top 10 WR or top 25 overall (which I assume you're referring to). Age is on his side for sure. I don't expect him to be much different than Sanders over the next 2 years. I don't think he is as good in the open field as Cobb/DJax/Brown. Sproles averaged 77 receptions per year, which isn't elite for a WR, especially at a low YPR. Round that up to mid 80s by converting RA to receptions and you're getting closer. Based on his age, I wouldn't be surprised if his market value gets that high. Backend of WR1 could get more crowded as some guys solidify their standing better. It was a little sketchy this year with Allen, Patterson, Floyd, Brown having limited track records.

80 receptions is my 2014 projection for Cooks--we'll see how that works out. That said, I think 80 is pretty low beyond this season. Sproles' snap:target ratio, if applied to a member of the base offense, would lead to much more than 77 receptions. Haven't done the math, but know Sproles was rotated often. I think we're looking at a 90 reception guy, as soon as next season.

Comparing Cooks to Cobb--Cooks is the much better route runner. You have to love a lot of what Cobb can do, but he's never been an above average man-to-man route runner. Cooks is--and should be able to get deep more often than Cobb because of it.

That said, again and of course, it's very early.

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Cooks is the most reliant on situation,

I think you mean to say he has the best situation. There's little reason to think his skillset can't produce outside of that situation.

I will say for me that I feel like Cooks has the lowest ceiling from that crew. I see his ceiling similar to Antonio Brown or Desean Jackson. I think Watkins and Evans have a ceiling more like Dez Bryant/Julio Jones.
Based on what? Also, what is the difference in the ceilings of Dez/Julio and Brown/Jackson?
Based on what I see/have seen.

The difference in upside to me is that Brown/DJax need an appropriate scheme/situation to put up top points like both had last year (and Brown still has). Dez/Julio and in the future Watkins/Evans are players I view as transcendent talents that could succeed with Mike Tice calling the plays and Joey Harrington throwing the ball.

But Jackson has put up top points in different offenses. :shrug:

He's also put up a lot of seasons of not "top points". If Desean is a situation-independent talent, you have to somehow explain why his talent did not shine independent of his situation in 2011 or 2012.

Probably had something to do with him missing over 6 games. 5 in 2012 and 1.75 in 2011. He was on pace for over a 1000 yds in each of those seasons.

I was looking at his PPG totals. Averaged about 8 PPG over the two seasons combined, and that's in standard (his totals would be even more unfavorable in PPR). I'd hardly describe 63/1022/3.7 as "top points", but that's what his 2011-2012 totals would pro-rate out to over 16 games. That would have ranked him 27th in standard last year (and substantially lower on both PPR and point-per-game lists). Back-to-back WR3 finishes are hardly indicative of a situation-independent talent to me.

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Cooks is the most reliant on situation,

I think you mean to say he has the best situation. There's little reason to think his skillset can't produce outside of that situation.

I will say for me that I feel like Cooks has the lowest ceiling from that crew. I see his ceiling similar to Antonio Brown or Desean Jackson. I think Watkins and Evans have a ceiling more like Dez Bryant/Julio Jones.
Based on what? Also, what is the difference in the ceilings of Dez/Julio and Brown/Jackson?
Based on what I see/have seen.

The difference in upside to me is that Brown/DJax need an appropriate scheme/situation to put up top points like both had last year (and Brown still has). Dez/Julio and in the future Watkins/Evans are players I view as transcendent talents that could succeed with Mike Tice calling the plays and Joey Harrington throwing the ball.

But Jackson has put up top points in different offenses. :shrug:

He's also put up a lot of seasons of not "top points". If Desean is a situation-independent talent, you have to somehow explain why his talent did not shine independent of his situation in 2011 or 2012.

Probably had something to do with him missing over 6 games. 5 in 2012 and 1.75 in 2011. He was on pace for over a 1000 yds in each of those seasons.

[written before I saw Adam's post]

In 2011-2012, even on a prorated basis, Jackson would have averaged about 60+ receptions, 1,000+ yards and 3-4 TDs.

I'm not sure what constitutes "top points", that is a little vague, but if that means scoring like an elite WR (like say, Dez/Julio at their best in a full season), than I don't think that is comparable with the production of the top WRs. :shrug:

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80 receptions is my 2014 projection for Cooks--we'll see how that works out. That said, I think 80 is pretty low beyond this season. Sproles' snap:target ratio, if applied to a member of the base offense, would lead to much more than 77 receptions. Haven't done the math, but know Sproles was rotated often. I think we're looking at a 90 reception guy, as soon as next season.

I can definitely see that. And I can definitely see a consistent 75-85. What do you think happens when they replace Colston? Like Denver, I don't think NO lets the window close without an honest effort. Of course NE answered the bell by drafting guys like Dobson and signing the worst NFL WR2 and trading for a guy from Rutgers, so there could be more of a void, or an even better 3rd option, depending on things that are hard to guess.

Snap-to-target ratio is a little strained for a passing game player who plays on passing downs. Whoever replaces Ryan Matthews will have 500 carries next year, maybe.

Edited by thriftyrocker

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Cooks is the most reliant on situation,

I think you mean to say he has the best situation. There's little reason to think his skillset can't produce outside of that situation.

I will say for me that I feel like Cooks has the lowest ceiling from that crew. I see his ceiling similar to Antonio Brown or Desean Jackson. I think Watkins and Evans have a ceiling more like Dez Bryant/Julio Jones.
Based on what? Also, what is the difference in the ceilings of Dez/Julio and Brown/Jackson?
Based on what I see/have seen.

The difference in upside to me is that Brown/DJax need an appropriate scheme/situation to put up top points like both had last year (and Brown still has). Dez/Julio and in the future Watkins/Evans are players I view as transcendent talents that could succeed with Mike Tice calling the plays and Joey Harrington throwing the ball.

But Jackson has put up top points in different offenses. :shrug:

He's also put up a lot of seasons of not "top points". If Desean is a situation-independent talent, you have to somehow explain why his talent did not shine independent of his situation in 2011 or 2012.

Probably had something to do with him missing over 6 games. 5 in 2012 and 1.75 in 2011. He was on pace for over a 1000 yds in each of those seasons.

I was looking at his PPG totals. Averaged about 8 PPG over the two seasons combined, and that's in standard (his totals would be even more unfavorable in PPR). I'd hardly describe 63/1022/3.7 as "top points", but that's what his 2011-2012 totals would pro-rate out to over 16 games. That would have ranked him 27th in standard last year (and substantially lower on both PPR and point-per-game lists). Back-to-back WR3 finishes are hardly indicative of a situation-independent talent to me.

Funny that you combine the two to make a point when one of those seasons was better by a decent amount. He would have amassed 1080/4.5 in 1 of those seasons.

Not many receivers put up consistent top seasons or WR1 seasons. Those who do are pretty universally considered elite. Nobody is saying Jax is elite. The debate was about him being able to put up top seasons in different offenses. He's done that. In 6 seasons he's been top 12 in 3 of them from a PPG standpoint and in different systems.

Edited by jurb26

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80 receptions is my 2014 projection for Cooks--we'll see how that works out. That said, I think 80 is pretty low beyond this season. Sproles' snap:target ratio, if applied to a member of the base offense, would lead to much more than 77 receptions. Haven't done the math, but know Sproles was rotated often. I think we're looking at a 90 reception guy, as soon as next season.

I can definitely see that. And I can definitely see a consistent 75-85. What do you think happens when they replace Colston? Like Denver, I don't think NO lets the window close without an honest effort. Of course NE answered the bell by drafting guys like Dobson and signing the worst NFL WR2 and trading for a guy from Rutgers, so there could be more of a void, or an even better 3rd option, depending on things that are hard to guess.

Snap-to-target ratio is a little strained for a passing game player who plays on passing downs. Whoever replaces Ryan Matthews will have 500 carries next year, maybe.

I agree with you--that's the downside, even assuming health and talent. As for specifics--I think Toon could get a shot. Otherwise, they'll invest.

True. Math fail on my part. Perhaps moving some caries to receptions is best.

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Rank the following in order of dynasty value: S.Watkins , M.Evans, K.Benjamin, B.Cooks

Same as I had a week ago... Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Benjamin.

Me too, way to early to move guys around.

I'm still not sold on Benjamin in the long term. A lot of guys put up numbers when they are the only viable wr. Look at Harry Douglas last year, or any of the endless raider or jaguar flame outs.

You have to be right on your calls if and when presented--or it won't matter whether you were early or late. The moment you like Eddie Lacy more than Trent Richardson--your rankings and potential roster moves should reflect that. That will be different for all of us, as we all have access to different data points and interprit and weigh them differently as well.

Rules of thumb can be as damning as they are helpful. If Harry Douglas has anything to do with your stance on Kelvin Benjamin--I have to question how helpful the rule is.

Kelvin Benjamin is dominating NFL cornerbacks, to my eyes. If your eyes see something different, of course, ignore my stance. But that is a HUGE data point and needs to be taken into account right away, once identified.

He's dominated NFL cbs? Lets be serious. 1 game, that's it. I don't want to hear about training camp or preseason.

The point is, Harry Douglas is barely inside the top 100 NFL wrs talent-wise but he put up over a 1000 yards last year with Julio out and Roddy hurt. Mike Sims Walker, Cecil Shorts, Denarius Moore, Streator, etc,etc. They were all guys with no other viable wrs on their teams and were seriously overvalued and hyped up at various times because of it. Just look at Hurns this year.

I'm not buying into Benjamin based on preseason hype and 1 game. Obviously, if you believe in him, go after him and buy if you think his value is going to skyrocket. But for me, I'm not making any radical changes.

Edited by voiceofunreason

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He's dominated NFL cbs? Lets be serious. 1 game, that's it. I don't want to hear about training camp or preseason.

He's physically dominating them. Pre-season certainly counts, as DB's aren't playing jump balls any differently in pre-season than they do in the SuperBowl. They're not smaller or less athletic in pre-season. Benjamin isn't any stronger or more agile in pre-season. Very few NFL corners are going to be able to hold their own against him, physically. Seeing that in practice, at this level, is a major data point for me.

I don't have any issue with you not being sold on him or not seeing what I see. Or even not valuing what we're seeing as I am. Again, that's all subjective. But I think it's too early is a limiting rule to cling to. Any money I've won in the hobby was from being too early. I've struck out plenty, too, but I'd rather do that than wait for consensus to catch up or disprove my stance.

Edited by Concept Coop

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One comment about Benjamin: I've read just as many scouting reports that love Benjamin as reports that think he's not going to be a successful NFL receiver. So the experts seems divided on his game. Even FBGs Cecil Lammy isn't sold on Benjamin. But I find it intriguing that Carolina's backup QB came in and Benjamin still had a good fantasy performance. There are valid reasons to doubt Benjamin's game. But how many talented rookie WRs go an entire first season without a game like that?

I know that this question was rhetorical, but to a man with a hammer every problem looks like a nail, and to a man with a database every rhetorical question looks like a fun way to waste some time.

Over the last 20 years, 76 rookies have reached 6 receptions, 92 yards, and 1 TD in a single game. By an extremely quick count, at least 9 of them were RBs and 2 of them were TEs (and it's very likely that I undercounted because there were several names I wasn't familiar with).

Basically, you're looking at an average of just barely north of 3 receivers a year who manage to hit all the thresholds Benjamin reached in his first game. Not an extremely rare performance, but certainly an uncommon one, especially for a first career game.

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One comment about Benjamin: I've read just as many scouting reports that love Benjamin as reports that think he's not going to be a successful NFL receiver. So the experts seems divided on his game. Even FBGs Cecil Lammy isn't sold on Benjamin. But I find it intriguing that Carolina's backup QB came in and Benjamin still had a good fantasy performance. There are valid reasons to doubt Benjamin's game. But how many talented rookie WRs go an entire first season without a game like that?

I know that this question was rhetorical, but to a man with a hammer every problem looks like a nail, and to a man with a database every rhetorical question looks like a fun way to waste some time.

Over the last 20 years, 76 rookies have reached 6 receptions, 92 yards, and 1 TD in a single game. By an extremely quick count, at least 9 of them were RBs and 2 of them were TEs (and it's very likely that I undercounted because there were several names I wasn't familiar with).

Basically, you're looking at an average of just barely north of 3 receivers a year who manage to hit all the thresholds Benjamin reached in his first game. Not an extremely rare performance, but certainly an uncommon one, especially for a first career game.

How many of them did it with the backup QB?

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Funny that you combine the two to make a point when one of those seasons was better by a decent amount. He would have amassed 1080/4.5 in 1 of those seasons.

Not many receivers put up consistent top seasons or WR1 seasons. Those who do are pretty universally considered elite. Nobody is saying Jax is elite. The debate was about him being able to put up top seasons in different offenses. He's done that. In 6 seasons he's been top 12 in 3 of them from a PPG standpoint and in different systems.

Which season was better by a decent amount? The one where he was on pace for 62/1025/4.3 or the one where he was on pace for 65/1018/2.9? To me, those two seasons look as close to identical as two seasons could possibly look, but if you'd rather separate them out instead of lumping them together, there are the stats for each individually.

The debate, as I understand it, is that Bigmarc said "DJax need an appropriate scheme/situation to put up top points", and you disagreed by pointing out he has done it in two different scheme/situations. My counter would be that both of those scheme/situations might have been different, but they were still "appropriate", and Bigmarc was still correct. In '08-'10, Desean was catching passes from a HoVG-type QBs leading top-10 passing offenses coordinated by one of the most pass-happy coaches in NFL history. In '13, he benefited from the Chip Kelly Revolution. What did he look like in 2011-2012 when Vick regressed, the Philly passing offense started slipping, and Andy Reid earned a pink slip? How do you think he'd do in the hypothetical presented where he was catching passes from Joey Harrington on a team coached by Mike Tice?

Desean Jackson is not a situation-independent talent, because in the times he's found himself in an unfavorable situation, he's produced like a WR3. Seems like it should be a pretty uncontroversial statement.

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One comment about Benjamin: I've read just as many scouting reports that love Benjamin as reports that think he's not going to be a successful NFL receiver. So the experts seems divided on his game. Even FBGs Cecil Lammy isn't sold on Benjamin. But I find it intriguing that Carolina's backup QB came in and Benjamin still had a good fantasy performance. There are valid reasons to doubt Benjamin's game. But how many talented rookie WRs go an entire first season without a game like that?

I know that this question was rhetorical, but to a man with a hammer every problem looks like a nail, and to a man with a database every rhetorical question looks like a fun way to waste some time.

Over the last 20 years, 76 rookies have reached 6 receptions, 92 yards, and 1 TD in a single game. By an extremely quick count, at least 9 of them were RBs and 2 of them were TEs (and it's very likely that I undercounted because there were several names I wasn't familiar with).

Basically, you're looking at an average of just barely north of 3 receivers a year who manage to hit all the thresholds Benjamin reached in his first game. Not an extremely rare performance, but certainly an uncommon one, especially for a first career game.

How many of them did it with the backup QB?

I don't know. Here's the list if you want to go through it and check, though I'd suggest that "backup QB" isn't necessarily the most meaningful designation. Is Kelvin Benjamin doing it with Derrick Anderson significantly different from David Gettis doing it with Matt Moore just because Anderson was a backup and Moore the starter? I would call both quarterbacks "backup-quality".

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One comment about Benjamin: I've read just as many scouting reports that love Benjamin as reports that think he's not going to be a successful NFL receiver. So the experts seems divided on his game. Even FBGs Cecil Lammy isn't sold on Benjamin. But I find it intriguing that Carolina's backup QB came in and Benjamin still had a good fantasy performance. There are valid reasons to doubt Benjamin's game. But how many talented rookie WRs go an entire first season without a game like that?

I know that this question was rhetorical, but to a man with a hammer every problem looks like a nail, and to a man with a database every rhetorical question looks like a fun way to waste some time.

Over the last 20 years, 76 rookies have reached 6 receptions, 92 yards, and 1 TD in a single game. By an extremely quick count, at least 9 of them were RBs and 2 of them were TEs (and it's very likely that I undercounted because there were several names I wasn't familiar with).

Basically, you're looking at an average of just barely north of 3 receivers a year who manage to hit all the thresholds Benjamin reached in his first game. Not an extremely rare performance, but certainly an uncommon one, especially for a first career game.

How many of them did it with the backup QB?

I don't know. Here's the list if you want to go through it and check, though I'd suggest that "backup QB" isn't necessarily the most meaningful designation. Is Kelvin Benjamin doing it with Derrick Anderson significantly different from David Gettis doing it with Matt Moore just because Anderson was a backup and Moore the starter? I would call both quarterbacks "backup-quality".

I was just kidding around, but interesting to see what quality of QB these guys had.

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One comment about Benjamin: I've read just as many scouting reports that love Benjamin as reports that think he's not going to be a successful NFL receiver. So the experts seems divided on his game. Even FBGs Cecil Lammy isn't sold on Benjamin. But I find it intriguing that Carolina's backup QB came in and Benjamin still had a good fantasy performance. There are valid reasons to doubt Benjamin's game. But how many talented rookie WRs go an entire first season without a game like that?

I know that this question was rhetorical, but to a man with a hammer every problem looks like a nail, and to a man with a database every rhetorical question looks like a fun way to waste some time.

Over the last 20 years, 76 rookies have reached 6 receptions, 92 yards, and 1 TD in a single game. By an extremely quick count, at least 9 of them were RBs and 2 of them were TEs (and it's very likely that I undercounted because there were several names I wasn't familiar with).

Basically, you're looking at an average of just barely north of 3 receivers a year who manage to hit all the thresholds Benjamin reached in his first game. Not an extremely rare performance, but certainly an uncommon one, especially for a first career game.

Nice work. Well said.

Does it interest you that he did this with a backup QB? I know that Benjamin has worked with Newton to develop some chemistry. I don't know, it intrigues me that the backup walked in and Kelvin still did well. Maybe I'm overstating that point.

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Does it interest you that he did this with a backup QB? I know that Benjamin has worked with Newton to develop some chemistry. I don't know, it intrigues me that the backup walked in and Kelvin still did well. Maybe I'm overstating that point.

Derek Anderson also threw KB's only preseason TD. Given Cam had both the ankle and rib issues this preseason, it's not the first time the two worked together by any means.

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He's the top target on a playoff team that let it's top 3 WRs walk, as a rookie, week 1. That's what's unique. Never mind week 1, his stock was soaring prior to his performance.

Steve Smith was targeted 128/16 with Newton (low of 116/16). Keenan Allen got 112/16 last year. Knowing that, Keenan's 2014 campaign seems like a reasonable baseline for Kelvin--70/1,000/8--and KB already has a head start. He only needs 4.25/60/0.45(!) from here on out to meet it. We saw what that production did to Allen's dynasty value--and Allen's not 6'5", 240--and he doesn't bring the #SCTop10 flair that KB does. You don't have to think he's one of the better rookies in the last few years to think he's likely to be one of the more valuable post rookie season assets over said span.

Edited by Concept Coop

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He's the top target on a playoff team that let it's top 3 WRs walk, as a rookie, week 1. That's what's unique. Never mind week 1, his stock was soaring prior to his performance.

Steve Smith was targeted 128/16 with Newton (low of 116/16). Keenan Allen got 112/16 last year. Knowing that, Keenan's 2014 campaign seems like a reasonable baseline for Kelvin--70/1,000/8--and KB already has a head start. He only needs 4.25/60/0.45(!) from here on out to meet it. We saw what that production did to Allen's dynasty value--and Allen's not 6'5", 240--and he doesn't bring the #SCTop10 flair that KB does. You don't have to think he's one of the better rookies in the last few years to think he's likely to be one of the more valuable post rookie season assets over said span.

You make a good case for why we should expect similar or even greater opportunities for Kelvin Benjamin as what we saw from Keenan Allen. I don't see anywhere in your argument explaining why we should expect similar efficiency in turning those opportunities into fantasy points, especially when Keenan Allen was playing with a near-HoF QB playing at a near-MVP level and Kelvin Benjamin is playing with one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.

Seriously 120 targets at Philip Rivers' career averages would translate to 77/948/6.5. 120 targets at Derek Anderson's career averages would translate to 64/768/4.4. Rivers has produced 26% more PPR points per pass attempt over his career, which means it would take 141 targets from Derek Anderson for Benjamin to equal the value of 112 targets from Philip Rivers.

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You make a good case for why we should expect similar or even greater opportunities for Kelvin Benjamin as what we saw from Keenan Allen. I don't see anywhere in your argument explaining why we should expect similar efficiency in turning those opportunities into fantasy points, especially when Keenan Allen was playing with a near-HoF QB playing at a near-MVP level and Kelvin Benjamin is playing with one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.

Seriously 120 targets at Philip Rivers' career averages would translate to 77/948/6.5. 120 targets at Derek Anderson's career averages would translate to 64/768/4.4. Rivers has produced 26% more PPR points per pass attempt over his career, which means it would take 141 targets from Derek Anderson for Benjamin to equal the value of 112 targets from Philip Rivers.

Newton is starting next week--and I think Benjamin will do wonders for Newton's efficiency. Newton has a nasty deep ball with some short/intermediate touch issues, to my eyes. I have to think that's why Benjamin was the option for CAR; he can hide much of that with his catch radius and he doesn't need to be open to present a quality target.

I'd be fine projectig a reduced efficiency rate for Benjamin, between the two, but I also expect a few more targets and a better RZ performace.

Last year, Allen accounted for 20% of Rivers' targets--on par with VJax's time with Rivers. In Newton's career--he threw to Steve Smith at 25%, 28%, and 23% clips.

Edited by Concept Coop

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Does it interest you that he did this with a backup QB? I know that Benjamin has worked with Newton to develop some chemistry. I don't know, it intrigues me that the backup walked in and Kelvin still did well. Maybe I'm overstating that point.

Derek Anderson also threw KB's only preseason TD. Given Cam had both the ankle and rib issues this preseason, it's not the first time the two worked together by any means.

Good point.

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One comment about Benjamin: I've read just as many scouting reports that love Benjamin as reports that think he's not going to be a successful NFL receiver. So the experts seems divided on his game. Even FBGs Cecil Lammy isn't sold on Benjamin. But I find it intriguing that Carolina's backup QB came in and Benjamin still had a good fantasy performance. There are valid reasons to doubt Benjamin's game. But how many talented rookie WRs go an entire first season without a game like that?

I know that this question was rhetorical, but to a man with a hammer every problem looks like a nail, and to a man with a database every rhetorical question looks like a fun way to waste some time.

Over the last 20 years, 76 rookies have reached 6 receptions, 92 yards, and 1 TD in a single game. By an extremely quick count, at least 9 of them were RBs and 2 of them were TEs (and it's very likely that I undercounted because there were several names I wasn't familiar with).

Basically, you're looking at an average of just barely north of 3 receivers a year who manage to hit all the thresholds Benjamin reached in his first game. Not an extremely rare performance, but certainly an uncommon one, especially for a first career game.

How many of them did it with the backup QB?

I don't know. Here's the list if you want to go through it and check, though I'd suggest that "backup QB" isn't necessarily the most meaningful designation. Is Kelvin Benjamin doing it with Derrick Anderson significantly different from David Gettis doing it with Matt Moore just because Anderson was a backup and Moore the starter? I would call both quarterbacks "backup-quality".

I note Kevin Johnson in that list. Benjamin reminds me of him. A big target with good hands but not special. He will put up good but not great fantasy numbers as long as he is the primary receiving target. But long term, his ceiling is not high.

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I note Kevin Johnson in that list. Benjamin reminds me of him. A big target with good hands but not special. He will put up good but not great fantasy numbers as long as he is the primary receiving target. But long term, his ceiling is not high.

According to footballreference, Kevin Johnson was 5'11', 195. Is there another that I'm missing?

What do you think hinders Benjamin's ceiling?

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One comment about Benjamin: I've read just as many scouting reports that love Benjamin as reports that think he's not going to be a successful NFL receiver. So the experts seems divided on his game. Even FBGs Cecil Lammy isn't sold on Benjamin. But I find it intriguing that Carolina's backup QB came in and Benjamin still had a good fantasy performance. There are valid reasons to doubt Benjamin's game. But how many talented rookie WRs go an entire first season without a game like that?

I know that this question was rhetorical, but to a man with a hammer every problem looks like a nail, and to a man with a database every rhetorical question looks like a fun way to waste some time.

Over the last 20 years, 76 rookies have reached 6 receptions, 92 yards, and 1 TD in a single game. By an extremely quick count, at least 9 of them were RBs and 2 of them were TEs (and it's very likely that I undercounted because there were several names I wasn't familiar with).

Basically, you're looking at an average of just barely north of 3 receivers a year who manage to hit all the thresholds Benjamin reached in his first game. Not an extremely rare performance, but certainly an uncommon one, especially for a first career game.

How many of them did it with the backup QB?

I don't know. Here's the list if you want to go through it and check, though I'd suggest that "backup QB" isn't necessarily the most meaningful designation. Is Kelvin Benjamin doing it with Derrick Anderson significantly different from David Gettis doing it with Matt Moore just because Anderson was a backup and Moore the starter? I would call both quarterbacks "backup-quality".

I note Kevin Johnson in that list. Benjamin reminds me of him. A big target with good hands but not special. He will put up good but not great fantasy numbers as long as he is the primary receiving target. But long term, his ceiling is not high.

I see your Kevin Johnson and raise you a Marques Colston.

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From the dynasty trade thread...

I think you're trying to pigeonhole the people who disagree with you. I wish you wouldn't. I have no problem ranking players high before they prove it. Watkins is my #18 overall player- I've got him higher than any staffer except for Parsons (and I don't think even you would try to out-youth Parsons). I've got Tavon Austin 13 spots higher than the staff consensus (and 6 spots higher than any other individual staffer) despite not having "seen it" yet with him. Jordan Reed was my #15 dynasty TE last offseason as a 3rd round pick with zero career snaps. I was the highest staffer on Julius Thomas last offseason, dating all the way back to May when Bloom and I were the only ones who even had him ranked. Who has two thumbs and is one of the two highest staffers on Manziel, Bortles, and Bridgewater? This guy! Who is the guy who has been saying for years that nobody in the NFL- not no one- is worth four rookie first round picks? That'd be me, picking the side of the yet-to-prove-it over the side of the succeeded-beyond-a-reasonable-doubt. Do you not remember the epic debates I used to have to get in to try to justify my high Devin Hester ranking when he first switched to WR? What had he proven at that point that was causing me to rank him that high?

Ranking elite NFL draft prospects as good dynasty bets doesn't exactly qualify as going out on a limb. Tavon, Watkins, Manziel, Bortles, and Bridgewater were all first round draft picks. Anyone who values upside will likely have some interest in those guys solely by virtue of the price their NFL teams paid to acquire them. Likewise, where you have Watkins is basically where most reasonable people have him and is right in line with his ADP. In general I think of you as a guy who spends most of his posting energy hyping proven commodities like Gronk and Harvin rather than making judgment calls on "will he or won't he" prospects.

Maybe it's easier for you to think that I am lower on Christine Michael than you are because I routinely need to "see it" before I'm going to place fair value on anyone, and that's some sort of flaw in my operating system that savvy owners like you are able to exploit. The truth is that I'm lower on Christine Michael than you are because I just don't think Christine Michael is that good of a prospect. I think the Michael backers are not adequately accounting for the full range of possible outcomes and pricing Michael fairly based on the resulting risk and reward. I think when you say you're pricing him on "what's going to happen", what you really mean is that you're pricing him based on your expectations, and I think you should be pricing him on EV instead.

EV based on what though? He's not a coin flip. There are no objective odds that can fully account for his uniqueness. Sure, you can say that second round RBs are expected to yield X VBD or that running backs who rush for less than 100 yards in their rookie season have Y chance of becoming FF-relevant, but those arguments are all predicated on the idea that the way you're framing Michael is accurate and that it will provide enough appropriate historical comparisons. How many RBs...

- Were chosen in the 2nd round of the NFL draft despite an injury-plagued college career?

- Were drafted by the best organization in the league?

- Had good efficiency stats in college?

- Have off the charts freakish athletic ability?

- Were drafted onto a team with an entrenched elite starter?

- Dominated in their rookie preseason?

I could go on, but the point here is that the notion of an objective EV only really works if I buy the idea that some arbitrary group of players (i.e. "2nd round RBs" or "workout freaks" or "top 100 draft pick RBs who never rushed for 1000+ yards in a college season") is somehow representative of Michael's prospects. If your criteria for determining historical comparisons get specific enough, you'll realize that there really are no comparisons for Christine Michael. And that sort of makes sense because he's the first Christine Michael and the last Christine Michael. His odds of success are based entirely on him and not on generic characteristics that he shares with similar players. Jamaal Charles was a 3rd round pick. Lorenzo Booker was a 3rd round pick. Charles is great and Booker sucks. That's all that matters. Often times there's smoke where there's fire when it comes to draft slot, measurables, and production, but ultimately smoke isn't fire. Anquan Boldin wasn't supposed to be a 10000+ yard receiver based on his generic traits, but ultimately Anquan Boldin is a unique individual and the outcomes of different players with different DNA don't give you a road map for predicting Anquan Boldin's career. It is the same with every player. You can make an attempt to assess him based on generic traits (i.e. "first round RBs with excellent college production and strong measurables usually succeed"), but none of that stuff is binding. It is just smoke when what really matters is fire. What matters is what the player actually is, not what he looks like from some distant obscured vantage point.

So while I recognize that Michael's draft position and college career likely say something about his pro outlook, you're right that my assessment of his chances is based solely on my expectation because that's ultimately the only thing that I have to go by. Where I rank Michael is a result of looking at all the objective stuff and then making adjustments to that starting point based on my subjective impressions from the various cards that have been turned up on the table since then. It's really just about paying attention and valuing certain variables. I value the buzz he generated in camp and how impressive he looks on the field in the NFL. If you don't see either of those things and/or you don't value them then of course you're not going to understand why anyone views Michael as anything other than a promising-but-volatile "good" (not great) prospect. Likewise, if you value the "Turbin is ahead of him on the depth chart" talk then that's only going to dampen your enthusiasm. I see where those folks are coming from. I just happen to think they're reading the signs incorrectly. Consider that...

Michael had mediocre college production can easily become Michael had excellent production when healthy, but simply got injured.

Michael was "only" a 2nd round pick can easily become the 2nd round is high for a RB who never had a 1000+ yard college season.

Turbin is ahead of Michael on the depth chart can easily become Turbin didn't even last a full series in the week 3 preseason tune-up before Michael came in. After Lynch came out of the game, Turbin and Michael actually had the exact same number of touches on the next series. Michael had more touches in the 1st quarter and in the entire game. He did not play a single snap without Russell Wilson on the field.

Same facts, but different interpretations. I'm not bothered that some people might not see it my way. In fact, I couldn't care less. It makes no difference to me whether you or anybody else thinks he's the #1 dynasty RB or the #100 dynasty RB. I'm worried about getting it right for myself and not about winning converts to the church of C-Mike. However, there's a notion among the skeptics that the Michael fans just woke up one morning and decided to anoint him the next great RB talent, and what I'm trying to communicate is that the opinion stems from a reasonable place. Ironically, I've been criticized for not being super high on Michael back in January-April of last year and then suddenly hyping him out the wazoo out of nowhere. Well...that's the whole damn point. I was intrigued all along, but it wasn't until I read all the huge buzz from practice observers and saw him last preseason with my own two eyeballs that I really sat up and said holy sh##! My expectations are tempered somewhat by his durability history, but yea I'm a huge believer in the talent itself. Nothing wrong with that in my book.

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EBF - Le'Veon Bell looks like a very talented and explosive do everything running back.

I don't care if you write a 10,000 word dissertation on the subject - you missed on him and were wrong.

Predicting running back success doesn't sound like your forte (Matt Forte)...

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Bell looked great last night. Would have been nice to see him get more carries. I think he's been underrated as a runner around here.

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