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In regards to Bell moving up to RB2 on some people's rankings. Are you guys considering his latest legal troubles in those rankings?

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Everyone is making a EV calculation whether its implicit or explicit. Michael's ADP brothers this year are Foster and Lynch (and others). If both of those established guys have 1.5 expected RB1 seasons left, what is the acceptable bust rate for Michael, given he is 5 years younger? It's pretty high. If you did 20% RB1, 60% bust and 20% inbetween, which I think is much lower than anyone supporting Michael would believe, it's still a worthy gamble. If powerball odds dropped to 1 in a million, you are likely still throwing money away buying tickets, but it's money well destroyed. I don't think Michael supporters in this thread are being irrational. Everyone has the same information in front of them. They just have applied the odds differently based on their own interpretation.

This is a timely post given some of the recent comments. I have Christine Michael at RB11 in my latest dynasty rankings. His August ADP is 48th overall. If I felt like he was a total lock for an elite career then I'd have him ranked higher. Likewise, the 48th overall pick IMO isn't one that's going to completely cripple your draft if you miss. The Michael skeptics might not be satisfied with the amount of risk reflected in his current market value, but to act like people aren't factoring in any bust risk isn't very accurate. Given that he's a 23 year old RB with 5-6 years of his athletic prime left, people would be rating him a lot higher if they knew he was going to become the starter, succeed, and stay healthy. You need only look at the ADP of guys like Lacy, Bernard, and Bell to see that.

I find it troubling how little on field action he's been given. For such an elite prospect, he should be both active and seeing at least a COUPLE of touches every gameday.

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Everyone is making a EV calculation whether its implicit or explicit. Michael's ADP brothers this year are Foster and Lynch (and others). If both of those established guys have 1.5 expected RB1 seasons left, what is the acceptable bust rate for Michael, given he is 5 years younger? It's pretty high. If you did 20% RB1, 60% bust and 20% inbetween, which I think is much lower than anyone supporting Michael would believe, it's still a worthy gamble. If powerball odds dropped to 1 in a million, you are likely still throwing money away buying tickets, but it's money well destroyed. I don't think Michael supporters in this thread are being irrational. Everyone has the same information in front of them. They just have applied the odds differently based on their own interpretation.

This is a timely post given some of the recent comments. I have Christine Michael at RB11 in my latest dynasty rankings. His August ADP is 48th overall. If I felt like he was a total lock for an elite career then I'd have him ranked higher. Likewise, the 48th overall pick IMO isn't one that's going to completely cripple your draft if you miss. The Michael skeptics might not be satisfied with the amount of risk reflected in his current market value, but to act like people aren't factoring in any bust risk isn't very accurate. Given that he's a 23 year old RB with 5-6 years of his athletic prime left, people would be rating him a lot higher if they knew he was going to become the starter, succeed, and stay healthy. You need only look at the ADP of guys like Lacy, Bernard, and Bell to see that.

I find it troubling how little on field action he's been given. For such an elite prospect, he should be both active and seeing at least a COUPLE of touches every gameday.
I agree that what I hear vs what we see doesn't gel.

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In regards to Bell moving up to RB2 on some people's rankings. Are you guys considering his latest legal troubles in those rankings?

It is my understanding that this is a first violation, which puts Bell in Stage 1. Bell has shown himself smart enough to not get caught by the "random" drug tests so far (which, as I understand it, for the majority of the population are broadcast well in advance and are basically only designed to weed out the idiots and the people with a serious problem). For the time being, I'm assuming that Bell is a guy who likes marijuana, but who is quite capable of avoiding it when necessary, and so I am okay risking his ability to avoid it for a while now that it's necessary.

If we were looking at a second strike in Stage 2 or a first strike in Stage 3, my feelings would be dramatically different. I'm down on Gordon because he's failed SIX tests going back to college. I'm down on Blackmon because he's failing tests just weeks after ending his suspension for failing tests. I think those guys have a problem. I think Bell didn't do anything that a bunch of other players in the league aren't doing, he just got unlucky and got busted by the cops while doing it. Especially with the league making moves to soften the substance abuse policy, I'm not currently pegging Bell as a guy who I think will have trouble staying clean going forward.

Edit: Ironically enough, I think getting busted by the cops for possession is actually a better sign than failing a drug test.

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Rank the following in order of dynasty value: S.Watkins , M.Evans, K.Benjamin, B.Cooks

Same as I had a week ago... Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Benjamin.

Me too, way to early to move guys around.

I'm still not sold on Benjamin in the long term. A lot of guys put up numbers when they are the only viable wr. Look at Harry Douglas last year, or any of the endless raider or jaguar flame outs.

You have to be right on your calls if and when presented--or it won't matter whether you were early or late. The moment you like Eddie Lacy more than Trent Richardson--your rankings and potential roster moves should reflect that. That will be different for all of us, as we all have access to different data points and interprit and weigh them differently as well.

Rules of thumb can be as damning as they are helpful. If Harry Douglas has anything to do with your stance on Kelvin Benjamin--I have to question how helpful the rule is.

Kelvin Benjamin is dominating NFL cornerbacks, to my eyes. If your eyes see something different, of course, ignore my stance. But that is a HUGE data point and needs to be taken into account right away, once identified.

I intended to comment on this at the time, but got busy and forgot. However, this past weekend's games present a good opportunity to revisit this.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Sammy Watkins was pretty universally regarded as an ELITE level prospect, and while I dislike the term "can't miss" (see Richardson, Trent), Watkins was about as highly regarded a prospect as we have had in several years. What could possibly have happened over the course of a training camp, preaseason, and 1 NFL game that had several in here dropping him down to 3rd in his own class?? I am not pointing out Concept Coop only and have no idea how he viewed Watkins pre-draft, but am commenting on the fact that several people seemed immediately ready to discount Watkins. I get it if someone viewed Benjamin or Cooks ahead of him before/immeditely after the draft, but if you didn't and changed your mind after what is essentially meaningless training camp/preseason action and the first real NFL games in these players careers, why?

If anything, this screams to me that Watkins is holding a neon flashing sign that says "buy me" in fantasy leagues. His performance this week likely killed whatever very small window may have been opened, but I can't fathom how he went from elite level prospect to being viewed behind Benjamin and Cooks before things even really began. If I owned Benjamin or Cooks in any leagues, I would be sprinting to my trade window to offer either up for Watkins, hoping the Watkins owner was also waffling on him. Is this Trent Richardson fatigue and people being overly weery of the very highly regarded talent falling flat on his face? Were people that spooked with a disappointing training camp/preseason that included injuries affecting his play and E.J. Manuel being E.J. Manuel? I suppose I can't figure it out and was caught off guard how quickly several in here seemed to discount him. This doesn't even touch on Mike Evans, who appears to simmarly being shuffled down the pecking order by some.

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I intended to comment on this at the time, but got busy and forgot. However, this past weekend's games present a good opportunity to revisit this.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Sammy Watkins was pretty universally regarded as an ELITE level prospect, and while I dislike the term "can't miss" (see Richardson, Trent), Watkins was about as highly regarded a prospect as we have had in several years. What could possibly have happened over the course of a training camp, preaseason, and 1 NFL game that had several in here dropping him down to 3rd in his own class?? I am not pointing out Concept Coop only and have no idea how he viewed Watkins pre-draft, but am commenting on the fact that several people seemed immediately ready to discount Watkins. I get it if someone viewed Benjamin or Cooks ahead of him before/immeditely after the draft, but if you didn't and changed your mind after what is essentially meaningless training camp/preseason action and the first real NFL games in these players careers, why?

If anything, this screams to me that Watkins is holding a neon flashing sign that says "buy me" in fantasy leagues. His performance this week likely killed whatever very small window may have been opened, but I can't fathom how he went from elite level prospect to being viewed behind Benjamin and Cooks before things even really began. If I owned Benjamin or Cooks in any leagues, I would be sprinting to my trade window to offer either up for Watkins, hoping the Watkins owner was also waffling on him. Is this Trent Richardson fatigue and people being overly weery of the very highly regarded talent falling flat on his face? Were people that spooked with a disappointing training camp/preseason that included injuries affecting his play and E.J. Manuel being E.J. Manuel? I suppose I can't figure it out and was caught off guard how quickly several in here seemed to discount him. This doesn't even touch on Mike Evans, who appears to simmarly being shuffled down the pecking order by some.

I was never sold on Sammy being a traditional 1.01 value as a prospect. I did feel he was the top player in this draft, but, largely due to draft position and the NFL investment. Please feel free to search for posts of mine containing his name. That really hasn't changed much for me. Granted, I haven't seen the game yet.

Also, I suggested that Benjamin was going to catch up to Evans' dyansty value during the season, prior to week 1. Post is in the Off-Season trade thread. Week 1 was one of a few data points that make me very high on Benjamin's end of season dynasty value. But not the only one, by any means.

My stance is that, should Benjamin meet my projections for him--70/1,000/8--he'll be a sexier version of K. Allen, as a dynasty asset, who was pretty universally valued higher than Sammy this off-season.

The call does depend on Sammy's value being close to what it was coming into the season. For that to happen, he needed to have a solid season that showed the talent, but didn't ponit to consistent top 15-20 numbers going into season 2, based largely due to situation. Obviously, if his situation allows more than that, I could come to regret any roster moves I make based on the call. But they're on pace for 256 completions, 3,000 yards and 16 TDs. If that holds, I feel confident that week 2 is an outlier for Sammy this season.

Lastly, I have no issues with Benjamin's week 2 performance. He got a lot of targets and that will continue. The catch rate will not, however--it will get much better. I haven't changed my projections for him at all, based on yesterday afternoon, and view it only as another buy window. He got 8 targets in both games, which puts him on pace for 128--the number I threw out last week.

As for Cooks--he was 2nd on the team in targets and got a couple looks on the ground for 30 yards. He's going to be fine and should be targeted heavily.

Edited by Concept Coop

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Watkins was about as highly regarded a prospect as we have had in several years.

2 years; 2 weak classes (top); and he was a better NFL prospect than fantasy prospect. IMO, a step behind Blackmon and a step ahead of Floyd.

Edited by Concept Coop

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Geno Smith looked good yesterday and is running more than I personally projected him to, this season. Where I can still get him for end of bench prices, I will be. Not ready to pay a 2nd round pick, in most formats, but I'm shopping for him with some solid handcuffs and RB darts.

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Geno Smith looked good yesterday and is running more than I personally projected him to, this season. Where I can still get him for end of bench prices, I will be. Not ready to pay a 2nd round pick, in most formats, but I'm shopping for him with some solid handcuffs and RB darts.

I picked him up as Romo insurance. Feels like Geno could exploit some mediocre teams this year.

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I have been saying the same thing about EBF for years. It is absurd for anyone who holds themselves out as an expert (like EBF) to say that success for Michael (or any player) is inevitable.

When did EBF call himself an expert?

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One comment about Benjamin: I've read just as many scouting reports that love Benjamin as reports that think he's not going to be a successful NFL receiver. So the experts seems divided on his game. Even FBGs Cecil Lammy isn't sold on Benjamin. But I find it intriguing that Carolina's backup QB came in and Benjamin still had a good fantasy performance. There are valid reasons to doubt Benjamin's game. But how many talented rookie WRs go an entire first season without a game like that?

I know that this question was rhetorical, but to a man with a hammer every problem looks like a nail, and to a man with a database every rhetorical question looks like a fun way to waste some time.

Over the last 20 years, 76 rookies have reached 6 receptions, 92 yards, and 1 TD in a single game. By an extremely quick count, at least 9 of them were RBs and 2 of them were TEs (and it's very likely that I undercounted because there were several names I wasn't familiar with).

Basically, you're looking at an average of just barely north of 3 receivers a year who manage to hit all the thresholds Benjamin reached in his first game. Not an extremely rare performance, but certainly an uncommon one, especially for a first career game.

Now you can add Watkins to the list for 2014.

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I intended to comment on this at the time, but got busy and forgot. However, this past weekend's games present a good opportunity to revisit this.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Sammy Watkins was pretty universally regarded as an ELITE level prospect, and while I dislike the term "can't miss" (see Richardson, Trent), Watkins was about as highly regarded a prospect as we have had in several years. What could possibly have happened over the course of a training camp, preaseason, and 1 NFL game that had several in here dropping him down to 3rd in his own class?? I am not pointing out Concept Coop only and have no idea how he viewed Watkins pre-draft, but am commenting on the fact that several people seemed immediately ready to discount Watkins. I get it if someone viewed Benjamin or Cooks ahead of him before/immeditely after the draft, but if you didn't and changed your mind after what is essentially meaningless training camp/preseason action and the first real NFL games in these players careers, why?

If anything, this screams to me that Watkins is holding a neon flashing sign that says "buy me" in fantasy leagues. His performance this week likely killed whatever very small window may have been opened, but I can't fathom how he went from elite level prospect to being viewed behind Benjamin and Cooks before things even really began. If I owned Benjamin or Cooks in any leagues, I would be sprinting to my trade window to offer either up for Watkins, hoping the Watkins owner was also waffling on him. Is this Trent Richardson fatigue and people being overly weery of the very highly regarded talent falling flat on his face? Were people that spooked with a disappointing training camp/preseason that included injuries affecting his play and E.J. Manuel being E.J. Manuel? I suppose I can't figure it out and was caught off guard how quickly several in here seemed to discount him. This doesn't even touch on Mike Evans, who appears to simmarly being shuffled down the pecking order by some.

I was never sold on Sammy being a traditional 1.01 value as a prospect. I did feel he was the top player in this draft, but, largely due to draft position and the NFL investment. Please feel free to search for posts of mine containing his name. That really hasn't changed much for me. Granted, I haven't seen the game yet.

Also, I suggested that Benjamin was going to catch up to Evans' dyansty value during the season, prior to week 1. Post is in the Off-Season trade thread. Week 1 was one of a few data points that make me very high on Benjamin's end of season dynasty value. But not the only one, by any means.

My stance is that, should Benjamin meet my projections for him--70/1,000/8--he'll be a sexier version of K. Allen, as a dynasty asset, who was pretty universally valued higher than Sammy this off-season.

The call does depend on Sammy's value being close to what it was coming into the season. For that to happen, he needed to have a solid season that showed the talent, but didn't ponit to consistent top 15-20 numbers going into season 2, based largely due to situation. Obviously, if his situation allows more than that, I could come to regret any roster moves I make based on the call. But they're on pace for 256 completions, 3,000 yards and 16 TDs. If that holds, I feel confident that week 2 is an outlier for Sammy this season.

Lastly, I have no issues with Benjamin's week 2 performance. He got a lot of targets and that will continue. The catch rate will not, however--it will get much better. I haven't changed my projections for him at all, based on yesterday afternoon, and view it only as another buy window. He got 8 targets in both games, which puts him on pace for 128--the number I threw out last week.

As for Cooks--he was 2nd on the team in targets and got a couple looks on the ground for 30 yards. He's going to be fine and should be targeted heavily.

I didn't mean to single you out in any way. Yours just happened to be the first post I found during that section of discourse in the thread. I think the important distinction is that you didn't beleive Watkins was the 1.01 and had a higher regard for Benjamin than most prior to any training camps or preseason games. There is nothing wrong with that and I would fully expect you to maintain your stance up to this point regardless of what any on field data has shown, as I don't believe anything seen in training camp or preseason is worth altering an opinion over for a rookie. In regards to their potential career arc, their training camp and preseason in their first season mean exactly zero to me (pending some incredible occurse that forces a seizmic shift in opinion, such as a significant injury, which has not happened).

My point was that the majority of people did have Watkins as the sure fire 1.01 and the only possible player they were even considering as an alternative was Mike Evans. Now after 1 week, with basically nothing having changed, multiple people were posting they suddenly preferred Benjamin AND Cooks to Watkins (and Evans). It just seems fairly reactionary and way to quick to alter course for my tastes. I felt it worth noting because for those that did have Watkins and/or Evans higher, and that pertains to most, some of the climate expressed in the thread might indicate there is opportunity to purchase Watkins or Evans for less than anticipated.

I feel Trent Richardson may, in fact, play a part in this. Lots and lots of people were so badly burned by mortgaging futures to acquire the 1.01 in his rookie season that any sign of a slow start from a highly hyped rookie has them worried. I would not be at all surprised if people were willing to bail on Watkins for Benjamin/Cooks after the preseason/training camp events and subsequent performances in week 1. If someone valued Watkins higher than either of them coming into the draft/season, I believe this to be a significant mistake. It may end up proving to be correct, but that doesn't mean the correct process was being used.

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I didn't mean to single you out in any way. Yours just happened to be the first post I found during that section of discourse in the thread.

Of course. It's certainly worth revisiting either way.

My point was that the majority of people did have Watkins as the sure fire 1.01 and the only possible player they were even considering as an alternative was Mike Evans. Now after 1 week, with basically nothing having changed, multiple people were posting they suddenly preferred Benjamin AND Cooks to Watkins (and Evans). It just seems fairly reactionary and way to quick to alter course for my tastes. I felt it worth noting because for those that did have Watkins and/or Evans higher, and that pertains to most, some of the climate expressed in the thread might indicate there is opportunity to purchase Watkins or Evans for less than anticipated.

It all depends on the data points available to you and your value in them, in my opinion. Early and late are just labels--not the calls themselves.

Beyond that--I think those expressing their preferences of Cooks/Benjamin did so out of increased optimism in the pair, rathan than a reactionary stance on Sammy. I could be wrong and only want to speak for myself. But I don't recall anyone calling Sammy a sell or less worthy of his previous month's ADP.

Now after 1 week, with basically nothing having changed, multiple people were posting they suddenly preferred Benjamin AND Cooks to Watkins (and Evans).

This is a difference of opinion I have with you on the matter; a lot changed and a lot of said change carried over to week 2. Week 1 was our first peek at the regular season game plan. That's a major data point for me, and it suggests that Cooks and Bejamin are a heavy part of their teams plans this season. That data point held.

Benjamin: 8 targets / 8 targets

Cooks: 8 targets, 1 carry/ 6 targets 2 carries

If utilization holds, I think the increased optimism will have been justified.

Edited by Concept Coop

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In regards to Herm23 question about Watkins, Cook, Benjamin, Evans and rookie rankings.

First of all I want to say that I rank the players in tiers, that means I expect all players in a tier to have similar real value to the other players in the same tier. The ranking of those players in the same tier is a mixture of personal preference and how I see each players situation. There is some consideration for which players I think will make an impact earlier in their careers than others.

I had Watkins as the top dynasty player prior to the NFL draft. Largely due to his pedigree and near universal opinion about him being the best WR of the 2014 draft class.

After the NFL draft I briefly had Evans ranked ahead of Watkins, I always considered the 2 prospects to be very close in potential to become WR1's in FF, despite them being very different prospects, My rankings are for standard scoring leagues, where I think Evan's is much closer to Watkins. In PPR leagues I think Watkins has more of an edge as a high volume WR. I did not really like the fit for Watkins going to Buffalo. After that initial impression and doubt, I still ranked Watkins number one from the 2014 draft class.

Post NFL draft I had Brandin Cooks ranked fourth overall. I think he went to the best situation of all of the rookie players, but I still had questions about early utilization with him and how he would be used. My perspective on that was very optimistic as I saw him filling the role of Sproles but with more upside because Cooks can be used as a traditional WR as well. I did consider ranking Cooks number 1 overall at that time due to the landing spot. But I was waiting for further confirmation of how the Saints would use him, as well as how he performed in TC/Preseason.

Kelvin Benjamin I had ranked 10th overall post NFL draft. I knew he had upside similar to Evan's and could potentially be the best WR from the 2014 draft, but I expected rawness and a longer learning curve with him as well as higher potential for him to be a bust if he could not build on his skill set. TC and preseason have shown that Benhamin can still produce despite being less experienced and refined in terms of technique, and therefore he moved up from 10th to 4th overall because of how he performed in preseason. My post NFL draft ranking of him at 10 was with the expectation that it would take Benjamin longer to put it together at the NFL level than it has taken him.

I agree with the overall premise that rankings should be carefully considered, to the point that those rankings should not change much because of small blips of information. At the same time I also believe in remaining flexible. Just because I ranked a player does not mean that ranking is set in stone. When I make a ranking I try to evaluate all of the information I have at the time and make the best ranking of all of the players I am evaluating based on that information. I try to be honest with myself and the main purpose of ranking players again after 3-4 months is to see if my previous ranking still looks true to me or if things have changed based on the new information.

I try to focus on the evaluation process and to be consistent in those processes, while improving those processes when I can because of things I learn over time. I care more about the process than the results.

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My point was that the majority of people did have Watkins as the sure fire 1.01 and the only possible player they were even considering as an alternative was Mike Evans. Now after 1 week, with basically nothing having changed, multiple people were posting they suddenly preferred Benjamin AND Cooks to Watkins (and Evans). It just seems fairly reactionary and way to quick to alter course for my tastes. I felt it worth noting because for those that did have Watkins and/or Evans higher, and that pertains to most, some of the climate expressed in the thread might indicate there is opportunity to purchase Watkins or Evans for less than anticipated.

Also, this does depend on the context, to be fair to us both. 5 years from now these guys will be where they are, and it will likely have had nothing to do with how many targets they got week 1 of their rookie season. In that regard, you're 100% right. I didn't mean to suggest otherwise, so I guess I can't even say that I disagree with you there.

My stance is more projecting the market value of each player at the end of the season. After a dominant Sammy performance, there is certainly less margin for error in such a call. But I am still confident in my initial projections of Cooks and Benjamin.

Edited by Concept Coop

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One comment about Benjamin: I've read just as many scouting reports that love Benjamin as reports that think he's not going to be a successful NFL receiver. So the experts seems divided on his game. Even FBGs Cecil Lammy isn't sold on Benjamin. But I find it intriguing that Carolina's backup QB came in and Benjamin still had a good fantasy performance. There are valid reasons to doubt Benjamin's game. But how many talented rookie WRs go an entire first season without a game like that?

I know that this question was rhetorical, but to a man with a hammer every problem looks like a nail, and to a man with a database every rhetorical question looks like a fun way to waste some time.

Over the last 20 years, 76 rookies have reached 6 receptions, 92 yards, and 1 TD in a single game. By an extremely quick count, at least 9 of them were RBs and 2 of them were TEs (and it's very likely that I undercounted because there were several names I wasn't familiar with).

Basically, you're looking at an average of just barely north of 3 receivers a year who manage to hit all the thresholds Benjamin reached in his first game. Not an extremely rare performance, but certainly an uncommon one, especially for a first career game.

Now you can add Watkins to the list for 2014.

The 17 who did it twice:

1 Anquan Boldin 2 Keenan Allen 3 Marvin Harrison 4 Keyshawn Johnson 5 Doug Baldwin 6 Dwayne Bowe 7 Reggie Bush 8 Michael Clayton 9 Marques Colston 10 T.Y. Hilton 11 Kevin Johnson 12 Eddie Kennison 13 Randy Moss 14 Eddie Royal 15 Mike Williams 16 Roy Williams 17 Kelvin Benjamin

Only 1-4 have done it 3+ times, and Benjamin will be joining that list, IMO.

Edited by Concept Coop

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NO Saints Targets:

Graham: 31

Cooks: 24 (3 RUSH ATT)

Colston: 13

Thomas: 13

Stills: 9

*Cobb: 21 (2 RUSH ATT)
*Harvin: 17 (6 RUSH ATT)

*C. Patterson: 17 (4 RUSH ATT)

Edited by Concept Coop

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Has anybody paid close attention to K.Allen this year? Reason for concern or just a slow start?

I didn't see any of this week's game (even highlights), but the first two weeks he spent a lot of time matched up with Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman. He actually did a good job of getting open against Sherman. I think the talent is there and it's just a slow start based on the situation.

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Has anybody paid close attention to K.Allen this year? Reason for concern or just a slow start?

I didn't see any of this week's game (even highlights), but the first two weeks he spent a lot of time matched up with Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman. He actually did a good job of getting open against Sherman. I think the talent is there and it's just a slow start based on the situation.

He wasn't matched up with Sherman that much iirc. They had Royal over there more often than not.

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Has anybody paid close attention to K.Allen this year? Reason for concern or just a slow start?

I didn't see any of this week's game (even highlights), but the first two weeks he spent a lot of time matched up with Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman. He actually did a good job of getting open against Sherman. I think the talent is there and it's just a slow start based on the situation.

He wasn't matched up with Sherman that much iirc. They had Royal over there more often than not.

I saw them matched up quite a few times, but maybe "a lot" is going too far.

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The TE field is interesting at the moment. Here's my stab at a top 14. As you can see, I'm willing to bet on Bennett keeping it up for a bit and Donnell being the real deal.

Graham

Gronk

Thomas

Cameron

Bennett

Ebron

Kelce

Reed

Donnell

ASJ

Eifert

Ertz

Olsen

Green

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The TE field is interesting at the moment. Here's my stab at a top 14. As you can see, I'm willing to bet on Bennett keeping it up for a bit and Donnell being the real deal.

Graham

Gronk

Thomas

Cameron

Bennett

Ebron

Kelce

Reed

Donnell

ASJ

Eifert

Ertz

Olsen

Green

Just a gut reaction:

I can't imagine any Ertz owner trading him straight up for Eifert. Feels like Ertz should be ranked a couple spots higher.

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Just a gut reaction:

I can't imagine any Ertz owner trading him straight up for Eifert. Feels like Ertz should be ranked a couple spots higher.

I certainly think Ertz would be at least 3-4 spots higher on most lists--perhaps top 5-7, even. He's just a guy that hasn't looked great to me yet, personally. If he does go on to be a top guy at the position, I'll likely be late to the party. While it's close, I still like ASJ and Eifert a bit more, despite lesser situations.

Edited by Concept Coop

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As a Cameron owner, I see a few guys on there ranked lower that I would take straight up. He's been on my bench for Niles Paul all year.

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As a Cameron owner, I see a few guys on there ranked lower that I would take straight up. He's been on my bench for Niles Paul all year.

Certainly reasonable. He passes the eye test for me, personally, in a big way. Within that tier, Cameron is the middle ground between Bennett's current production and Ebron's special upside.

Mind sharing the names?

Edited by Concept Coop

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The TE field is interesting at the moment. Here's my stab at a top 14. As you can see, I'm willing to bet on Bennett keeping it up for a bit and Donnell being the real deal.

Graham

Gronk

Thomas

Cameron

Bennett

Ebron

Kelce

Reed

Donnell

ASJ

Eifert

Ertz

Olsen

Green

Nice work. I'll give it a stab.

Graham

Gronk

Thomas

Cameron

Kelce

Bennett

Ertz

Eifert

Reed

Ebron

Green

ASJ

Donnell

Olsen

Davis

Allen

Rudolph

Amaro

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As a Cameron owner, I see a few guys on there ranked lower that I would take straight up. He's been on my bench for Niles Paul all year.

Certainly reasonable. He passes the eye test for me, personally, in a big way. Within that tier, Cameron is the middle ground between Bennett's current production and Ebron's special upside.

Mind sharing the names?

I'd think long and hard about any of Kelce, Ebron, Donell, or Ertz. Cameron could be the best but in the last 16 games, he's really only had two worthy of note.

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I'd think long and hard about any of Kelce, Ebron, Donell, or Ertz. Cameron could be the best but in the last 16 games, he's really only had two worthy of note.

I think that's fair. Him getting healthy will answer a lot of questions; hopefully soon.

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As a Cameron owner, I see a few guys on there ranked lower that I would take straight up. He's been on my bench for Niles Paul all year.

He's been hurt most of the season.

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As a Cameron owner, I see a few guys on there ranked lower that I would take straight up. He's been on my bench for Niles Paul all year.

He's been hurt most of the season.

And he was banged up last season too... That's the NFL though and if he's always hobbled, then he's not helping my fantasy team.

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Just a gut reaction:

I can't imagine any Ertz owner trading him straight up for Eifert. Feels like Ertz should be ranked a couple spots higher.

I certainly think Ertz would be at least 3-4 spots higher on most lists--perhaps top 5-7, even. He's just a guy that hasn't looked great to me yet, personally. If he does go on to be a top guy at the position, I'll likely be late to the party. While it's close, I still like ASJ and Eifert a bit more, despite lesser situations.

I dig. Just feels like Eifert is one of those guys that would shine as a primary receiver. But as it stands, he's on a team that doesn't seem committed to feeding him targets.

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Can I get a few top 3 dynasty RB opinions? The landscape seems to have shifted fairly rapidly from last year in my mind (although certainly an overreaction to some degree).

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Can I get a few top 3 dynasty RB opinions? The landscape seems to have shifted fairly rapidly from last year in my mind (although certainly an overreaction to some degree).

I think Bell, Shady, Gio, Demarco, and Charles are all worthy of being in the top grouping.

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The TE field is interesting at the moment. Here's my stab at a top 14. As you can see, I'm willing to bet on Bennett keeping it up for a bit and Donnell being the real deal.

Graham

Gronk

Thomas

Cameron

Bennett

Ebron

Kelce

Reed

Donnell

ASJ

Eifert

Ertz

Olsen

Green

There's Jimmy Graham and then there's everybody else.

I like Cameron, Ebron, and Eifert a lot too. I think if not for his injury, people would be higher on Eifert. Very impressive talent and he was off to a cracking start in week one before he went down with the elbow injury. I'm excited to see what he can do if they unleash him in the second half of the season. If you're out of contention and you want to address your TE spot for the future, that's the guy I'd look at. Impatient owners might be ready to bail.

I flip-flopped back and forth on Kelce over the last year or two, but it looks like that coin landed on "hit." Not many can match his combination of size and explosiveness. Durability is a little bit of skeleton in his closet, so that will be something to watch.

Not really feeling Marty B on par with Ebron and Cameron. Just a good player on an unsustainable hot streak IMO. He's more of a fringe TE1 for me. I'm not buying Donnell as a long term monster just yet either. He's not going to catch 3 TDs every week and I don't know that his talent is going to see him perform any better than an Olsen/H Miller type of guy in the long run. That might even be optimistic. He's definitely on an upward trajectory though.

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Can I get a few top 3 dynasty RB opinions? The landscape seems to have shifted fairly rapidly from last year in my mind (although certainly an overreaction to some degree).

I think Bell, Shady, Gio, Demarco, and Charles are all worthy of being in the top grouping.

The additions of Murray, Bell, and Gio (somewhat) surprised me.

Bell looks so much better than Stacy/Lacy/Ball... pretty much the greatest change from year 1 to 2 for a RB i can remember. Kinda thought all of these guys were plodders, and now Bell looks like one of the most dynamic backs in the league.

Also I think there's a fair case to put Murray over Charles or McCoy, or at least in the very same rank. Going back to last year he has been tip top in production, but also just looks so great running. Could easily be mistaken for an in his prime Peterson. Tall, powerful, fast, runs fiery.

Murray last 16 games - 284-1544 rushing yards ((5.4ypc ), 50-330 receiving yards, 15 TDs

Gio has put up production but hasn't looked that awesome as a runner... Hill has a higher YPC. I'm concerned that Gio is elite only because of volume he's getting as a runner. Clearly a nifty receiving back, but without 15+ carries a game (and hopefully a better YPC than the 3-to-low-4 he put up through 3 games), he may not be a legit top 5 candidate. Has anyone seen him make 'wow' plays running the ball this year? Granted I have not seem him a ton.

Also Ingram, who is somewhat hidden by the injury, has the look of a top 10 back. Fairly young, running hot, FA next year, former 1st rounder and heisman. Arguably the best Bama back including Richardson (easily) and Lacy. Put Ingram in Lacy's shoes this year and Ingram far outproduces him.

Murray

McCoy

Charles

Bell

Gio

Ingram!

Edited by karmarooster

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I agree that Gio is scary as a top option. His YPC in his last 7 games are 2.5. 1.5, 1.7, 3.8, 3.4, 3.3, and 3.4. His career YPC is 3.4.

This is doubly concerning because the Bengals just drafted a RB that has looked pretty good while actually....running the ball. Gio is valuable because he's a good receiver and gets a lot of volume, but I wouldn't necessarily count on that volume continuing, especially as a runner. He has been poor on that front throughout his time in the NFL. He's failed to eclipse 4ypc in 11 of his 20 games in the NFL.

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Wow that's worse than I realized. Hard to tell if he's Forte (3.9 and 3.6 ypc first two years) or TRich. In any case Forte was just behind a bad line, but Gio should be producing much better with that scheme - as compared to Hill at 5.1 ypc (but Hill has likely played more in garbage time).

Edited by karmarooster

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I agree that Gio is scary as a top option. His YPC in his last 7 games are 2.5. 1.5, 1.7, 3.8, 3.4, 3.3, and 3.4. His career YPC is 3.4.

This is doubly concerning because the Bengals just drafted a RB that has looked pretty good while actually....running the ball. Gio is valuable because he's a good receiver and gets a lot of volume, but I wouldn't necessarily count on that volume continuing, especially as a runner. He has been poor on that front throughout his time in the NFL. He's failed to eclipse 4ypc in 11 of his 20 games in the NFL.

While I'm also a little worried about Gio's rushing numbers, the bolded is plain wrong. His career YPC is 3.91 (4.1 last year, 3.4 so far this year, 225 carries for 880 yards so far in his career.)

Edited by Redmen62

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The TE field is interesting at the moment. Here's my stab at a top 14. As you can see, I'm willing to bet on Bennett keeping it up for a bit and Donnell being the real deal.

Graham

Gronk

Thomas

Cameron

Bennett

Ebron

Kelce

Reed

Donnell

ASJ

Eifert

Ertz

Olsen

Green

Just a gut reaction:

I can't imagine any Ertz owner trading him straight up for Eifert. Feels like Ertz should be ranked a couple spots higher.

I'm an Eifert owner who wouldn't trade him straight-up for Ertz.

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Can I get a few top 3 dynasty RB opinions? The landscape seems to have shifted fairly rapidly from last year in my mind (although certainly an overreaction to some degree).

Bell, McCoy, Murray for my top 3. This isn't too reactionary for me, since I was high on Bell and Murray before the season- I had them at RB3 and RB7, and have said for over a year now that if he didn't have the injury history, Murray would be a consensus top-5 dynasty back.

I feel like there's a tier break after those three down to Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, and Giovani Bernard in the 4-6 spots. And then another tier break between those guys and the rest of the top 10; probably Montee Ball, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, and... crap, it's hard to think of a 10th back to put in my top 10. Maybe Alfred Morris or Doug Martin, but I'm not thrilled with either. Carlos Hyde or Bishop Sankey, just because they're young? Things dry up pretty quickly at the RB position.

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My current top 12 at TE & RB (with previous rank as of 8/31/14):

Player Prev

Jimmy Graham 1
Rob Gronkowski 2

Julius Thomas 3

Jordan Cameron 4
Eric Ebron 5

Zach Ertz 6
Tyler Eifert 9
Travis Kelce 20
Ladarius Green 8
Jordan Reed 7
Martellus Bennett 16

Greg Olsen 10

Player Prev
Le'Veon Bell 8
LeSean McCoy 1

Jamaal Charles 2
DeMarco Murray 6
Giovani Bernard 5
Eddie Lacy 3

Montee Ball 7
Matt Forte 10

Doug Martin 4
Alfred Morris 12
Marshawn Lynch 13
Carlos Hyde 15

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My current top 12 at TE & RB (with previous rank as of 8/31/14):

Player Prev

Jimmy Graham 1

Rob Gronkowski 2

Julius Thomas 3

Jordan Cameron 4

Eric Ebron 5

Zach Ertz 6

Tyler Eifert 9

Travis Kelce 20

Ladarius Green 8

Jordan Reed 7

Martellus Bennett 16

Greg Olsen 10

Player Prev

Le'Veon Bell 8

LeSean McCoy 1

Jamaal Charles 2

DeMarco Murray 6

Giovani Bernard 5

Eddie Lacy 3

Montee Ball 7

Matt Forte 10

Doug Martin 4

Alfred Morris 12

Marshawn Lynch 13

Carlos Hyde 15

Curious about Charles over Murray. Do you expect Charles to outperform Murray over the remainder of the season? Or do you just like him more in future seasons? Murray is a year younger, but he's also a free agent after the season.

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It's a close call, but I'll take Charles's extra 1.2 years of age over Murray's more extensive history of leg injuries. I'm a bit more wary of apparently injury-prone guys than I used to be, after seeing guys like McFadden, Stewart, Nicks, Britt, and Amendola experience some combination of recurring injuries and sapped ability. And I do love that Andy Reid offense for a back who's as good a receiver as Charles.

This season it's basically a tossup, maybe leaning slightly towards Murray. I expect Murray to have a higher ppg as long as he stays healthy, but I think Charles has a better chance of being on the field for the fantasy playoffs. (That's a neglected disadvantage of injury prone players: the games that players are most likely to miss due to injury are the most important ones of the fantasy season.)

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Can I get a few top 3 dynasty RB opinions? The landscape seems to have shifted fairly rapidly from last year in my mind (although certainly an overreaction to some degree).

Bell, McCoy, Murray for my top 3. This isn't too reactionary for me, since I was high on Bell and Murray before the season- I had them at RB3 and RB7, and have said for over a year now that if he didn't have the injury history, Murray would be a consensus top-5 dynasty back.

I feel like there's a tier break after those three down to Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, and Giovani Bernard in the 4-6 spots. And then another tier break between those guys and the rest of the top 10; probably Montee Ball, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, and... crap, it's hard to think of a 10th back to put in my top 10. Maybe Alfred Morris or Doug Martin, but I'm not thrilled with either. Carlos Hyde or Bishop Sankey, just because they're young? Things dry up pretty quickly at the RB position.

Thought you were down on Murray as overrated before the season started but turns out it was EBF. His top 2 overrated backs in July: Bell and Murray. To be fair, most of the media entirely missed on Bell too, as the offseason talk was all about would-he-or-wouldn't-he lose goal line carries to Blount. I guess they forgot to mention or notice that he dropped weight and is now shiftier than McCoy.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=283290&page=440#entry17043983

Edited by karmarooster

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Can I get a few top 3 dynasty RB opinions? The landscape seems to have shifted fairly rapidly from last year in my mind (although certainly an overreaction to some degree).

Bell, McCoy, Murray for my top 3. This isn't too reactionary for me, since I was high on Bell and Murray before the season- I had them at RB3 and RB7, and have said for over a year now that if he didn't have the injury history, Murray would be a consensus top-5 dynasty back.

I feel like there's a tier break after those three down to Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, and Giovani Bernard in the 4-6 spots. And then another tier break between those guys and the rest of the top 10; probably Montee Ball, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, and... crap, it's hard to think of a 10th back to put in my top 10. Maybe Alfred Morris or Doug Martin, but I'm not thrilled with either. Carlos Hyde or Bishop Sankey, just because they're young? Things dry up pretty quickly at the RB position.

Thought you were down on Murray as overrated before the season started but turns out it was EBF. His top 2 overrated backs in July: Bell and Murray. To be fair, most of the media entirely missed on Bell too, as the offseason talk was all about would-he-or-wouldn't-he lose goal line carries to Blount. I guess they forgot to mention or notice that he dropped weight and is now shiftier than McCoy.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=283290&page=440#entry17043983

EBF has hated Murray since he was a Soph at OU. Not surprising.

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There's Jimmy Graham and then there's everybody else.

I like Cameron, Ebron, and Eifert a lot too. I think if not for his injury, people would be higher on Eifert. Very impressive talent and he was off to a cracking start in week one before he went down with the elbow injury. I'm excited to see what he can do if they unleash him in the second half of the season. If you're out of contention and you want to address your TE spot for the future, that's the guy I'd look at. Impatient owners might be ready to bail.

I flip-flopped back and forth on Kelce over the last year or two, but it looks like that coin landed on "hit." Not many can match his combination of size and explosiveness. Durability is a little bit of skeleton in his closet, so that will be something to watch.

Not really feeling Marty B on par with Ebron and Cameron. Just a good player on an unsustainable hot streak IMO. He's more of a fringe TE1 for me. I'm not buying Donnell as a long term monster just yet either. He's not going to catch 3 TDs every week and I don't know that his talent is going to see him perform any better than an Olsen/H Miller type of guy in the long run. That might even be optimistic. He's definitely on an upward trajectory though.

I agree on Eifert. Very good athlete who is likely to reward the patient.

Kelce's looked damn good; I just need to see a little bit more to continue moving him up.

While his current production is largely a product of his situation, Bennett's a very gifted athlete--big, long, and agile. He has the benefit of a lot of one-on-one coverage, and when playing against a zone, the deep guy also has to keep an eye on the two steeds on the outside, but I think that continues for a stretch beyond this season.

Edited by Concept Coop

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On the Couch Bloom said he would trade Gronk for Kelce. I wouldn't do that straight up but if I could get Gronk plus something decent, it's not a bad idea.

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Player Prev

Le'Veon Bell 8

LeSean McCoy 1

Jamaal Charles 2

DeMarco Murray 6

Giovani Bernard 5

Eddie Lacy 3

Montee Ball 7

Matt Forte 10

Doug Martin 4

Alfred Morris 12

Marshawn Lynch 13

Carlos Hyde 15

I like the call on Bell at 1. I personally think he's a tier of his own. Those extra years, especially at the RB spot, are huge.

This RB crop is an odd mix and I've largely avoided investing in it as a result. I'm trying to grab Charles Sims, Tre Mason, and Jeremy Hill where their owners are getting impatient. Aside from that and some band aids (F.Jax, R.Jennings, D.Sproles) it's all 2015 draft picks for me. Gurley could be the #2 dynasty back the moment he's picked. And while he's the clear top guy in the class, there are another 3-4 backs with a chance to go round 1. That feels like the value play at RB, to me personally, rather than investing more than that trying to buy low on Lacy, Ball, Hyde, etc.

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