Max Power
Footballguy
Detroit will be in the market
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Dynasty Rankings (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
I think the Lions would be a great fit. Minnesota, San Fran, Carolina and even Tennessee would be great fits.I wonder if he'd be a good buy-low right now.
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If you believe, i can't think of a better time to buy. I wouldn't be shocked if he gets dropped in some leagues. I sense that people will have fast triggers on this one. I'm holding, but maybe I'm wrong.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
As for the state of the Eagles, I can't get an offer any better than Jamal Lewis for Westy right now.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Wondering if Turner is going to move up your rankings or if his lack of receptions still scares you...I've got a chance to land LBJ in exchange for Turner (keeper, and I'd lose either guy after next year) so I'm looking forward to your updates.
stevegamer
Footballguy
I think Thursday's game will tell a lot for McNabb.
If Kolb starts, McNabb is done in Philly, and the Eagles' fans are almost as happy as they were during the Phillies parade.
If McNabb starts, is bad, and Kolb replaces him and looks good, McNabb is done in Philly, and the Eagles' fans are almost as happy as they were during the Phillies parade.
If McNabb starts & looks good and the Eagles win, he might yet be in Philly next year.
I suspect Reid will survive this season as the coach - it's kind of hard to fire a guy who is, at absolute worst, the 4th best coach you've ever had - only guys who could be ahead of him are Vermeil, Neale & Shaw, and I don't think Shaw's title in 1960 in the teams only good year under him trumps Reid.
If Reid goes, the Eagles offense will likely cause the QB/WR/TE to take a hit in value. I doubt Westbrook feels much of a hit, though - more rushing touches to offest some of the loss in the passing game.
McNabb to me, is a buy low right now, but the value could get significantly lower.
If Kolb starts, McNabb is done in Philly, and the Eagles' fans are almost as happy as they were during the Phillies parade.
If McNabb starts, is bad, and Kolb replaces him and looks good, McNabb is done in Philly, and the Eagles' fans are almost as happy as they were during the Phillies parade.
If McNabb starts & looks good and the Eagles win, he might yet be in Philly next year.
I suspect Reid will survive this season as the coach - it's kind of hard to fire a guy who is, at absolute worst, the 4th best coach you've ever had - only guys who could be ahead of him are Vermeil, Neale & Shaw, and I don't think Shaw's title in 1960 in the teams only good year under him trumps Reid.
If Reid goes, the Eagles offense will likely cause the QB/WR/TE to take a hit in value. I doubt Westbrook feels much of a hit, though - more rushing touches to offest some of the loss in the passing game.
McNabb to me, is a buy low right now, but the value could get significantly lower.
Scooby1974
Footballguy
What do you guys think of Brandon Jackson? Will he ever turn into something or should we go after another RB sleeper like Ware/ Marcus Thomas/ Parmalee/Lumpkin/?
Man in the yellow hat
Footballguy
At times, he looks like he has all the tools to be a player in this league. At other times, he looks downright awful.For all the talking up the staff did this offseason, I haven't seem him translate much improvement on the field.I'd look elsewhere if I were you.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
My sentiments exactly. You summed it up well. Thursday is going to tell us a lot. McNabb is a buy-low, but he's an even riskier buy-low than most guys because he could bottom out before he returns to must-start status.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Yes on both counts. He will move up, and his lack of receptions still scare me. It's not that Turner struggles against quality defenses; all RBs struggle against good defenses. But Turner doesn't add any receptions or receiving yardage, so you're looking at a loss if he doesn't find paydirt. That package can be very valuable (Jerome Bettis) if the runner finds the end zone consistently, but there's a very fine line on consistency when you don't chip in at all in the passing game. Philosophically, I'd just prefer to let someone else deal with that animal while I go with a runner who is more heavily invested in both running and receiving.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I agree. I haven't seen anything out of Brandon Jackson that would make me want to stash him. He's a better receiver than Ryan Grant, but I haven't been impressed with his running ability at all. I think he's a Ryan Grant handcuff and that's about it.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Those are all valid points. I don't know about "proof," but I absolutely believe that career touches do translate to a higher "cliff" factor. I also believe a healthy Westbrook will have a higher per game average the next couple of seasons than a healthy Tomlinson.
The Eagles franchise crumbling could be a factor, but I'm not ready to bury Philly quite yet.
I don't think there's a difference in intangibles at all between the two players. They're both highly motivated gamers.
I'm sure Westbrook will get a downgrade this week, but I'd still turn down Tomlinson for him if the deal was offered.
gianmarco
Footballguy
That statement will NEVER be true. At least not any time in the immediate (read next 10 yrs) future.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I have nothing to back this up, but my sense is that's how the landscape looks every year in late November.Who didn't have the Jets taking McFadden at this time last year? Dolphins were a possibility for a RB with Ronnie Brown coming off ACL surgery. Falcons needed a replacement for Warrick Dunn. Cardinals knew Edgerrin James was shot. Ditto Seattle and Shaun Alexander as well as Cincinnati and Rudi Johnson. It makes for nice talk radio, but it's more of along the lines of idle speculation.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
Agree. Last year was one of the best RB crops in recent memory and if you went trading for a bunch of top picks in this year's draft, you could have ended up like me - Mendenhall/Rice/Johnson, or Stewart/Mendenhall/Rice. You could also have gone Smith/Forte/Johnson and looked pretty good but I'm of the opinion that you draft talent over situation in Dynasty, especially when you're talking about 21 year old unknowns. This year definately doesn't have the depth at RB that last year did, so if you aquire the picks now - looking at all the mock drafts that have Cincy taking Wells and all the draft pieces fit perfectly into place, you'll be VERY dissappointed come May. You may just end up with Wells in KC behind LJ (remember him sitting behind Holmes for a couple years?), Crabtree in the eternal sucktitude that is Oakland & Moreno in Minnesota to replace Chester Taylor. I'm not projecting any of these, so don't bash my non-attempt at mock drafting, just saying we don't know anything now. If you're the gambling type, you shoot for these picks now, having your mind made up on which (talent) pick you're going to make but you can't expect for even 1/2 of these guys to end up in a favorable position.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Not sure what is confusing. Hoping for someone to go to the Lions and calling it a great fit for fantasy success just doesn't make any sense. It's akin to thinking someone would be a great fit in Oakland. If I had someone and was hoping that they landed in a place to have some success, Detroit is pretty much the last place I'd hope for that. I don't see the Lions as a "great fit" for anyone.
questions about the Sons of the Tundra rankings and thinking about situation versus talent:
Jordy Nelson was picked 36th overall, 3rd WR off the board. James Hardy was picked 41st overall, 4th WR off the board. Their respective teams similarly play in cold weather teams and have young QBs who have had success, and the 2 teams have similar offensive stats (222 passing yards, 27 ppg for Green Bay, 213 passing yards, 25 ppg for Buffalo). Why is Hardy's value score so much higher? Is it solely due to Hardy having a clear path to the WR2 job whenever he gets good enough for it, whereas Nelson has two entrenched starters in front of him? But that would be situation, and usually the theory in this thread is to take talent over situation.
Similarly, I'm curious if you are rethinking Josh Morgan's high ranking. He is your highest ranking rookie WR outside of Royal and Jackson (who seems overvalued a little at #23?) right now, but I can't imagine his situation looks better than that of Nelson or Hardy or Thomas or even Avery. Who knows who's going to coach the team next year, who will be the OC, etc. The first three WR I listed all have pretty stable situations with good QBs in place, and Avery at least has the merits of being fast, playing in a dome, and having a clear path to a starting gig next year.
On the whole, I count 9 WR taken within 21 picks in the 2nd round last year, from Avery to Sweed. I would have expected them to be a bit more muddled in the rankings, as none of them really proved much so far, outside of maybe Royal (arguably Jackson, though imo he's closer to the pack). Yet, the rankings have a spread there from 75 to 4.
Jordy Nelson was picked 36th overall, 3rd WR off the board. James Hardy was picked 41st overall, 4th WR off the board. Their respective teams similarly play in cold weather teams and have young QBs who have had success, and the 2 teams have similar offensive stats (222 passing yards, 27 ppg for Green Bay, 213 passing yards, 25 ppg for Buffalo). Why is Hardy's value score so much higher? Is it solely due to Hardy having a clear path to the WR2 job whenever he gets good enough for it, whereas Nelson has two entrenched starters in front of him? But that would be situation, and usually the theory in this thread is to take talent over situation.
Similarly, I'm curious if you are rethinking Josh Morgan's high ranking. He is your highest ranking rookie WR outside of Royal and Jackson (who seems overvalued a little at #23?) right now, but I can't imagine his situation looks better than that of Nelson or Hardy or Thomas or even Avery. Who knows who's going to coach the team next year, who will be the OC, etc. The first three WR I listed all have pretty stable situations with good QBs in place, and Avery at least has the merits of being fast, playing in a dome, and having a clear path to a starting gig next year.
On the whole, I count 9 WR taken within 21 picks in the 2nd round last year, from Avery to Sweed. I would have expected them to be a bit more muddled in the rankings, as none of them really proved much so far, outside of maybe Royal (arguably Jackson, though imo he's closer to the pack). Yet, the rankings have a spread there from 75 to 4.
Calvin Johnson has been very successful this year and Roy Williams was a solid #2 when healthy from 04' through 07'.I think McNabb could be a QB1 on the Lions. I think both he and Calvin could be extremely valuable if they were playing together. Calvin could be the #1 WR in the NFL with a solid QB and an elite WR is what McNabb needs at this stage of his career to be a top QB.So, that's why I believe it would be a good fit.gianmarco said:Not sure what is confusing. Hoping for someone to go to the Lions and calling it a great fit for fantasy success just doesn't make any sense. It's akin to thinking someone would be a great fit in Oakland. If I had someone and was hoping that they landed in a place to have some success, Detroit is pretty much the last place I'd hope for that. I don't see the Lions as a "great fit" for anyone.travdogg said:gianmarco said:
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Some relevant points:- I don't think I've put quite as much thought into comparing rookie WR vs. rookie WR as you have. As it is now, it's taking me 3-4 hours every Wednesday (or Thursday) when I sit down to do re-evaluations. If I started to compare every player against every other player at his position I would have no life.
- I probably care less about NFL draft spot than most Dynasty owners. The fact that Nelson was drafted ahead of Hardy means nothing to me. You're right that I should have them closer together, and Hardy is definitely in for a downgrade after he struggled to do anything when Josh Reed was out. Now that I think more deeply on it, Hardy did have a better opportunity (hence his higher ranking the past month) but he failed to do anything with it. I'd personally prefer Nelson, so I'll have some rearranging to do this week.
- Unlike most of the rookies, Josh Morgan has earned a starting spot. He's also shown off exciting playmaking ability both in the preseason and the regular season. He just happens to be injured right now, which affects how people are viewing his future. Even with a staff infection that caused him to lose 15 lbs. and set him behind at the beginning of the season, he had emerged as the starter opposite Ike Bruce before the groin injury. I'm impressed by his talent, his situation, and the fact that his coaches like him.
- I go more by instinct than you're going to want me to. The rankings factor in stats, situation, talent, and opportunity, but they're definitely more art than science.
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EBF
Footballguy
Quick interjection about Kelly:- He apparently looked really good in training camp before the injury issues flared up.
- Shawn Springs was raving about him before he got hurt.
I think Kelly is a better natural WR than Thomas and I think he'll become a solid player IF he can ever stay healthy. That's the big issue with him. Will the knee be a constant source of concern? Will it rob him of speed and quickness?
I view him as a good guy to stash if you can get him for dirt cheap, but he's too uncertain for me to recommend actively pursuing. It's easy to envision a scenario in which he gets hurt again and becomes a complete afterthought (something like M. Bradley, M. Walker, or even T. Murphy). That said, if he stays healthy all offseason then I think he could conceivably beat out Randle El in 2009.
Fair enough - and thank you for the response. About the NFL draft spot, I think it becomes less relevant over time, but until we get to see much from these players we really only have draft slot and stituation to go by. Jackson and Royal have earned a lot of playing time and had some success, but all the other rookies lack one or both of those things. I was just curious if those rankings differences reflected some of those quick judgments you've been talking about making, or something else.On Morgan - what about his situation could impress you? He has no QB and the coaching staff may be in flux. Anyway, he seems a practically impossible player to get a good read on before next season.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I saw the game Sunday, but I didn't see enough out of Kelly to form any kind of judgment on him one way or another. EBF's report looks a lot like mine but more detailed.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Well, the fact that he had earned a starting job so quickly in spite of the early season health setback was impressive. Add in an easy path to the go-to receiver role in the offense, and it's even better.I agree that the QB situation is a bit unsettling, but I think his early progress and playmaking ability trump that concern.
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loose circuits
Footballguy
with Charles playing well, I seriously doubt KC will be drafting a RB early this year especially if Kolby Smith gets healthy. They have way too many holes in other places. They should draft DL with their top 4 picks
EBF
Footballguy
One other little thing:Apparently Kelly was ahead of Thomas on the depth chart for this last game even though Thomas was healthy.I saw the game Sunday, but I didn't see enough out of Kelly to form any kind of judgment on him one way or another. EBF's report looks a lot like mine but more detailed.
Think about that for a second.
Kelly has barely practiced at all this year, was nearly placed on IR, and is just returning to action. What do the coaches do with him in his first game back? They put him as high on the depth chart as would have been remotely reasonable (they certainly weren't going to start him over SMoss or Randle El). I think if you read between the lines here, the Washington coaches are high on Kelly (or very down on Thomas and Thrash). That bodes well for his future. But again, it all comes down to health. We know he's an athlete, we know he's a natural hands catcher, and we know he's a football player. What we don't know is whether or not his knee will allow him to play football.
I think its more that that's the case. Thomas was never even able to pass Thrash.One other little thing:Apparently Kelly was ahead of Thomas on the depth chart for this last game even though Thomas was healthy.
Think about that for a second.
Kelly has barely practiced at all this year, was nearly placed on IR, and is just returning to action. What do the coaches do with him in his first game back? They put him as high on the depth chart as would have been remotely reasonable (they certainly weren't going to start him over SMoss or Randle El). I think if you read between the lines here, the Washington coaches are high on Kelly (or very down on Thomas and Thrash). That bodes well for his future. But again, it all comes down to health. We know he's an athlete, we know he's a natural hands catcher, and we know he's a football player. What we don't know is whether or not his knee will allow him to play football.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Per Rotoworld:
As an NFL fan, I'd be interested in seeing McNabb in either Chicago or Minnesota. But would that really increase his fantasy value?
stevegamer
Footballguy
Actaully Minnesota could be quite good. If Childress is till there, I think McNabb would know much of the terminology, and it gives Tarvaris Jackson someone he can hold aclipboar for who has some similarities regarding having mobilty as a young QB, what happens when that goes, what you need to do, etc.When (at this point, barring a miracle finish, it's almost not an "if" anymore) the Eagles trade McNabb there might be a block party on my street; a number of guys hate him as a QB, and for some of them race is the driving or only issue. Sometimes I wish the Eagles had moved to Arizona and there was no team here.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
Read, dude. A quick, worst-case-scenario as I went throught the top 15 picks on a mock draft. Just saying, the top 10 FFB picks pre-draft, don't end up in all the cushy, position-needy places where a starting gig is handed to them... like M'hall, Stewart, McFadden, Rice weren't after we drooled over all the mock drafts last year.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
No, but it would increase the WR corps of the team he went to. Not sure if there is much in Chicago to bolster, but Rice and Berrians dynasty value would certainly improve. Mcnabb leaving Philly would also be a hit to Desean Jackson and the rest of the Philly WR's.
I think it may increase his value if he went to Minnesota. Berrian is better than any WR Philly has right now, and Rice has a ton of upside, plus the passing windows would be huge with teams loading up to stop the run(which would be a first for McNabb) I think McNabb in Minnesota would be similar to the 2007 Jaguars, only McNabb(in my opinion) is a far greater passer than Garrard. If it were to happen, a 3,500 yard 25 TD season with only about 10 picks wouldn't be unrealistic, that's not so different than what he was on pace for until the last 2 games.
ETA: I don't see Chicago as a likely option, I think they are pretty happy with Orton.
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Berrian has never had a year as good as Curtis had last year. He has never broken 1000 yards.Rice has never had a year like DeSean Jackson has this year. He has never broken 400 yards.Reggie Brown is leaps and bounds better than any 3rd WR from Minnesota.Philadelphia WRs are vastly superior to the Vikings.
McNabb>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Frerotte/Jackson or Grossman in Berrian's case.
munchkin
Footballguy
Wouldn't Matt Cassel be a better bang for the buck if he continues to play at the level he has shown as of late? He is younger with no history of injury. Of course the track record isn't as long so I suppose there is the gamble of him being a one hit wonder. Either way the Vikings would be much better off than what they currently have on their roster.
Despite his lack of a track record, I'm not convinced Cassel would be cheaper than McNabb and if they are even close, I'd think McNabb would be the better option especially for a team that isn't that far off. Now a team like Detroit on the other hand...
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
McNabb is a Hall of Fame talent going through a two-game slump. Matt Cassel may be a product of his system coming off the best two games of his career and enjoying the playmaking of the most talented WR to ever play game and the reliability of one of the league's best possession receivers.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
You raise some good points on the Vikings production, especially the comparison to Garrard. I wouldn't be so sure about the Bears being thrilled with Orton. He and his agent have been trying to get the Bears to pony up for a long-term deal, but the Bears have made it known than they are plenty happy with Orton continuing to prove himself before they commit. He better pick the production back up before the end of the season.
stevegamer
Footballguy
I think I need to send this link to some people I know - their heads will explode. I'm not sure McNabb's a HoF talent - I'd go "no." right now. But he does know the Vikings offense & Childres, and is MUCH more similar to T. Jackson than Cassell. If jackson develops some, and McNabb goes down, you hope he can do the same things with mobility.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I think McNabb has a chance to be first ballot. Who's better over the past 10 years? Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady. Who else? Warner had better peaks definitely, but McNabb has him on sustained production. The fact that McNabb took that team to 3 straight conference finals with absolute garbage at the skill positions on offensive was very impressive. His career winning percentage is unbelievably good, and his rushing ability more than made up for any accuracy issues earlier in his career.
I'm not sure I'd even put Favre ahead of McNabb not between 1999 and today. Its amazing how underrated McNabb is. He's a 5 time pro bowl QB.
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Just Win Baby
Footballguy
I disagree. McNabb has never been 1st or 2nd team All Pro. Just because there are not more standout QBs over the past 10 years doesn't mean he's a HOFer... there is no quota to be filled here. In fact, there is a good opportunity for other positions to receive some deserved attention while we wait for the next group of HOF QBs.And there is no doubt in my mind that Warner is more deserving. You seem a bit dismissive of the fact that his peaks have been better... he is in contention for his third MVP award. He also has a ring, and McNabb doesn't, despite QBing a contending team for a number of years in his prime.I agree McNabb's WRs weren't good, other than Owens... but his RBs and defenses have been solid or better, so it's not like we're talking about no talent around him. He also has a low completion percentage, low TD percentage, and high sack percentage. Really the best thing about him as a passer is he does not turn the ball over much. That's not a lot to hang your hat on.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I'm not dismissive of Warner's peaks at all. In fact, I tend to favor "peaks" over sustained success in any sports figure. But I don't know that all of Warner's wasted seasons should be swept aside while McNabb was playing elite football. For the record, I think they're both on track to be Hall of Famers, but I'd like to see another couple of seasons of sterling play before I come to a final decision. I stand by my statement that McNabb is a HOF talent. In my mind, McNabb's rushing ability, winning percentage, playoff history, and ability to transcend some crappy wide receivers far outweigh the negatives. There's no doubt in my mind the percentage numbers you mention would be much more polished with a career full of legitimate NFL receivers as opposed to Todd Pinkstons, James Thrashes, and Freddie Mitchells.
I'd also add that rushing ability for some reason tends to get pooh-poohed when guys look back on a quarterback's value. McNabb contributed a ton of value to his teams with his legs. It's part of the total package as a quarterback even if his passing alone wasn't always elite.
Max Power
Footballguy
F&L..(or anyone with insight) mind giving me your thoughts on Kevin Smith?
Seems like he could be in a decent position to produce in the next few years. He has shown some flashes this season with terrible play at QB and an Average OL. Ideally Detroit would address the QB situation via FA or Trade (Derek Anderson, McNabb, or Cassell) and grab the top OT prospect with the top pick.
Could this be a guy to buy low on? How would you rank his prospects against this year's RB class? If I have a draft pick in the 3-5 range this season would you recommend I try to move that pick for him?
Seems like he could be in a decent position to produce in the next few years. He has shown some flashes this season with terrible play at QB and an Average OL. Ideally Detroit would address the QB situation via FA or Trade (Derek Anderson, McNabb, or Cassell) and grab the top OT prospect with the top pick.
Could this be a guy to buy low on? How would you rank his prospects against this year's RB class? If I have a draft pick in the 3-5 range this season would you recommend I try to move that pick for him?
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jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I haven't seen a lot of talk about Tyler Thigpen in this thread. But I think he is starting to become a viable Dynasty player. I know that Coastal Carolina doesn't exactly carry a great QB pedigree. But it seems like every week that Thigpen puts up good numbers, the KC brass must be wondering if they've found their franchise QB.
While there's no doubt that KC may take a QB in the first three rounds of the draft next year, I think you have to acknowledge that Thigpen has assimilated a lot faster than many of Thigpen's failed high draft pick QB brethren.
While there's no doubt that KC may take a QB in the first three rounds of the draft next year, I think you have to acknowledge that Thigpen has assimilated a lot faster than many of Thigpen's failed high draft pick QB brethren.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
Absolutely, there aren't too many NFL QBS who can lead theirteams to 1-10 records...
I think he's worth of a dynasty stash. He's been a pleasant surprise.
Boone22
Footballguy
I'm not F&L but I'll throw my 2 cents in. I traded for Kevin Smith around week 9. I gave up Chad Johnson and a 2nd round rookie pick. He's averaging 4.5 ypc and he no longer has to compete with Rudi Johnson for playing time. He's also averaging 3 catches per game. He's RB #19 in my league (non-ppr) and that's despite splitting time the first half of the season with Rudi. If Detroit addresses their QB position, defensive problems or O-line issues I think he goes from a low end #2 fantasy RB to a low end #1 fantasy RB.edited to add... My shock statement. If you actually look at his numbers, he's outproducing Matt Forte on a per touch basis. The problem is that he hasn't been featured in the offense like Forte has in Chicago.
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