Curious what people think the going rate is for Tomlinson nowadays. I see F&L has him at #11 in his most recent RB rankings. (That in and of itself is interesting, considering he is essentially the same age as Westbrook who is at #5, but that's a tangent.)
I see no reason to think Tomlinson won't continue to be productive the rest of this year, next year, and maybe 1-2 more years after that. Not 27 TD productive, but RB1 caliber the rest of this year, next year, and perhaps slipping to RB2 caliber in 2010 and holding that kind of value for another year or two. (I'm assuming Tomlinson will hang on for at least a few more years, hoping for a ring and also pushing his numbers into elite all time territory.)
I'm interested in what would be a fair offer in terms of draft picks only, players only, and/or a mix.
Good question. I didn't compare the two players against each other when I ranked them, but if I had to think deeply about it I'd say that LT2 seems like he has higher "cliff" factor than Westbrook. When Westbrook is even close to full health, he's a difference maker. Tomlinson has been pedestrian all season, and he swears that he's been as healthy the past couple of weeks as he's ever been. He's had so many more touches over his career than Westbrook has, and the late-career production of a guy like Tiki Barber I would think bodes well for Westbrook. Will Tomlinson reach difference-maker status again at any point during the rest of his career? FWIW, in my main Dynasty league, LT2 was on one owner's roster his entire career up until this season. He was traded before the season along with T.J. Houshmandzadeh for MJD & a first round pick. Then he was traded again a month ago. Details:
Tomlinson, Sproles, Jacob Hester for Deion Branch, Steve Smith (NYG), Edgerrin James, and Round 1, 3, & 5 draft picks. I think there's no question he was worth the risk at that price.
Thanks, F&L. LT went on the block in our league, which is why I asked. We asked the owner to look over our roster and tell us what he would want in addition to a 2009 first round pick (probably around 1.7 or so), excluding a few core players. He didn't see anything he liked, and we decided we did not want to trade 2 first rounders (with the second one probably in the top 5) and/or any of our core players... we felt 2 first rounders is too much mortgaging of the future and trading our core players negates the short term value of LT in the lineup and may also hurt long term.I figured your rankings of Westbrook and LT had something to do with career touches. Some things to think about:
1. Westbrook has never played a full season. Never. I know his PPG is great. But especially looking at all of his problems this year, it is hard to feel confident that he'll be able to stay on the field for most of his future seasons. In contrast, this is the first year LT was really affected by injury, and there is no reason to believe it will continue. I understand he has more career touches, but there is really no proof that will translate into missed time going forward.
2. Speaking of touches, LT is on pace for more than 350 this season, while Westbrook has only had that many once in his career (last season). I see no reason to believe LT will not continue to have a lot more touches every season going forward.
3. Reid could be out after this season. As could McNabb. How will a new coaching staff, QB, and offense affect Westbrook's PPG production? I suppose Turner could also be out, but at least his QB will remain the same. And I'd say it is less likely San Diego's offense would be changed much, since it is obviously their defense that needs improvement.
4. For those who believe in intangibles, LT has two that Westbrook doesn't IMO: pushing himself up all time lists to improve his legacy and HOF chances, and coming back strong next year to redeem himself for this season's disappointment. Both of them of course want to hang on and push for a ring.
Given that LT is 29.2 and Westbrook is 29 (per your blog), it's hard to see the big gap in your ranking. IMO LT is probably close to correct and Westbrook is too high.