Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
BeTheMatch,More material for your Big Ben thread:BeTheMatch said:
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- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
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rzrback77
Footballguy
Out of all the threads that I read on this forum, this one stands out in that it discusses abilities and projections for future performances with the least amount of useless responses.
I was partly responsible for the Roethlisberger discussion and I thoroughly enjoyed the banter that was backed up with stats and insights. Not all of us agreed on the Big Ben ranking, but almost all presented solid discussion points in their thoughts.
Great thread. Keep it alive and keep it valuable.
I was partly responsible for the Roethlisberger discussion and I thoroughly enjoyed the banter that was backed up with stats and insights. Not all of us agreed on the Big Ben ranking, but almost all presented solid discussion points in their thoughts.
Great thread. Keep it alive and keep it valuable.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yes, because clearly it was Ben Roethlisberger that "won" all those games, and not the Pittsburgh Steelers or the best defense in the NFL.Clearly, he was the driving force those two years where he threw a whopping 298 and 265 passes. Man, he just picked that team up and carried them on his shoulders while throwing half as many passes as many NFL quarterbacks
EBF
Footballguy
FWIW, the Steelers were considered a mediocre team before Roethlisberger arrived. They were 6-10 in 2003 and they opened the 2004 season with a 1-1 record. It's revisionist history to act like Roethlisberger stepped onto a loaded team that could've gone 14-2 with any chump QB at the helm. They weren't expected to be very good that year.
EBF
Footballguy
Roethlisberger had a 98.1 and 98.6 QB rating in his first two seasons. The numbers don't lie. He played very well. You can argue that his success was the result of his supporting cast, but how many QBs step into a good situation and play that well? Very few. Give credit where credit is due. Whether you like Ben or not, it's hard not to admit that he's been an integral part of Pittsburgh's success in recent years.
MTskibum
Footballguy
Ben is a slightly above average QB, he benefitted from play calling and from supporting cast both. His passing rating is overinflated because he takes the sack when he should throw the ball away. The reason he takes the sack is because of 1 out of 10 times he breaks free from the sack and makes a big play. I am not sure ben has been given a fair shake yet. I think that if we ever get an offensive line that isnt in the bottom 5-10, then maybe we can see what ben can really do, but until then give me a quick release QB that isnt afraid to throw the ball away when needed.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Give me the QB who will continue to do everything he can to make plays.Give me the QB who is the grittiest and most imaginative as well as the most physically gifted.Give me the QB who keeps winning.Give me the QB who is on pace to equal Elway's record for fourth-quarter comeback victories.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Any other QB with a great defense winning like Big Ben?Any other QB throwing up a career 90 QB rating and 7.9 YPA? Any other young QB come into the league and put up the rate stats that Big Ben did?He's a far different QB now than he was when he entered the league. But anyone who has ever called him a game manager has absolutely no clue how football games actually work.Yes, because clearly it was Ben Roethlisberger that "won" all those games, and not the Pittsburgh Steelers or the best defense in the NFL.Clearly, he was the driving force those two years where he threw a whopping 298 and 265 passes. Man, he just picked that team up and carried them on his shoulders while throwing half as many passes as many NFL quarterbacks
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Wait . . . what?
I'm not sure which statement here is more preposterous. Tommy Maddox? Better than Big Ben? You're out of your tree again, aren't you?This was a good discussion until now. Tommy Maddox was twice as good as Ben???? The same Tommy Maddox that played in the XFL????This post is like the drivel in the typical Shark Pool thread. Please piss somewhere else.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I find it it instructive that two guys whom I completely admire for their talent recognition/dynasty league skills, F&L and EBF, have a man crush on Roethlisberger and I just don't see that much special about him as a fantasy QB. I must be missing something.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Was taking a long hard look at this tonight. Here's my first rough-draft:TOP BUY-LOW CANDIDATES:1. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams2. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots3. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders4. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers5. Randy Moss, WR, Patriots6. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs7. Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins8. Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns9. Lee Evans, WR, Bills10. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers11. Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers12. Josh Morgan, WR, 49ers13. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers14. Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs15. Roy Williams, WR, Cowboys16. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers17. Trent Edwards, QB, Bills18. Torry Holt. WR, RamsTOP SELL-HIGH CANDIDATES1. Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins2. Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles3. Matt Cassel, QB, Patriots4. Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens5. Steve Slaton, RB, Texans6. Matt Forte, RB, Bears7. Antonio Bryant, WR, Buccaneers8. Thomas Jones, RB, Jets9. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons10. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Chiefs11. Tyler Thigpen, QB, Chiefs12. John Carlson, TE, Seahawks13. JaMarcus Russell, QB, Raiders14. Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, Vikings15. Kyle Orton, QB, Bears16. Bo Scaife, TE, TitansCarson Palmer, Chad Johnson? - Definitely not buys, but can't sell this low either.HOLDTony RomoJonathan StewartEdit to add: I guess it's kind of different than a straight "buy" or "sell" list. MJD should be the No. 1 "buy," but Dynasty leaguers are generally savvy enough to know that his value is going to be sky-high this offseason. He was a mandatory buy-low the past 2 years, but I don't know if you can call him a buy-low in 2009. Pierre Thomas was one of my favorite buys last offseason, but is he a buy-low right now? Tomlinson was a sell last summer, but I don't think I'd sell him right now.Good question. I haven't really sat down and looked hard enough to put together a list because we're still right in the heart of our playoffs. But that's not a bad idea. I'll make it my next mini-project.Who are you looking to move or acquire this offseason?I am looking for a list something like thiseangelo Williams - HoldLT - SellPierre Thomas - BuyMainly looking for players that are ripe for making a move at.
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A
awesomeness
Guest
Nice list. Couple of comments:If you're in a league with fellow FBG's chances are they already have Josh Morgan and he isn't going to be sold cheaply. I'd probably replace him with Devin Thomas myself. One person i didn't expect to see on the buy-low is Vernon Davis, especially now that Singletary is the head coach. There are reasons to think "next year will be the year" with him, but those were the same reasons that have been used the last 3 years. Although if you're in a deep league, i wouldn't be surprised if you can get him as a throw in for almost literally nothing, so i guess there's that. One question:Why do you have John Carlson as a sell high? As a ND fan i may be bias on the guy, so what are your impressions about him?Was taking a long hard look at this tonight. Here's my first rough-draft:TOP BUY-LOW CANDIDATES:1. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams2. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots3. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders4. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers5. Randy Moss, WR, Patriots6. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs7. Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins8. Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns9. Lee Evans, WR, Bills10. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers11. Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers12. Josh Morgan, WR, 49ers13. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers14. Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs15. Roy Williams, WR, Cowboys16. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers17. Trent Edwards, QB, Bills18. Torry Holt. WR, RamsTOP SELL-HIGH CANDIDATES1. Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins2. Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles3. Matt Cassel, QB, Patriots4. Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens5. Steve Slaton, RB, Texans6. Matt Forte, RB, Bears7. Antonio Bryant, WR, Buccaneers8. Thomas Jones, RB, Jets9. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons10. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Chiefs11. Tyler Thigpen, QB, Chiefs12. John Carlson, TE, Seahawks13. JaMarcus Russell, QB, Raiders14. Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, Vikings15. Kyle Orton, QB, Bears16. Bo Scaife, TE, TitansCarson Palmer, Chad Johnson? - Definitely not buys, but can't sell this low either.HOLDTony RomoJonathan StewartGood question. I haven't really sat down and looked hard enough to put together a list because we're still right in the heart of our playoffs. But that's not a bad idea. I'll make it my next mini-project.Who are you looking to move or acquire this offseason?I am looking for a list something like this
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Re: Morgan. I've gotten quite a few comments over the past few months asking why I've ranked him so highly among rookie WRs, so I was guessing there are still quite a few people who are sleeping on him. Edit to add: I liked Devin Thomas a lot coming into the league, but this guy's knucklehead factor is through the roof. Partied to much, came to camp out of shape, didn't know the plays, couldn't run the right routes, no commitment, immaturity, etc. The Redskins coaches are said to be much higher on Malcolm Kelly, who has issues of his own with the ongoing knee problems.Re: Vernon Davis. What does it have to do with Singletary? The blow-up thing? I'm pretty sure they're both over that, and both coach and player have gone out of their way to praise each other since the incident. It's obvious every time I watch the 49ers that Davis is the most explosive non-Gore offensive talent they have. Martz wasn't going to use him as a receiver, but I think it's worth gambling that the next offensive coordinator will. Sure, he's been a tease, but he's shown productive stretches several times in his young career and he certainly has the physical talent to turn it on. I just think his ceiling makes him worth the gamble if the price is as low as it's been.Re: John Carlson. I've seen quite a few people ranking him higher than Dustin Keller, Greg Olsen, Zach Miller, Tony Scheffler, and others. I just don't see him as being that productive going forward. I think Seattle's receivers will be upgraded and Carlson won't be leaned on as much. It should also be noted that he performed much better on average with Seneca Wallace at QB than with Hasselbeck. My guess is '08 production is about as much as can be expected.
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ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
I just gave up Donnie Avery and the 18th overall pick in the rookie draft for Palmer. I felt like that was a pretty low price for a proven commodity at QB. I think it is pretty indicative of the fact that his value has sunk to possibly it's lowest point ever. It could continue to slide if he has a bad season in '09, but even at this price do you still feel he is not a "buy"?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Unless I was extremely desperate for a QB, I wouldn't go out of my way to give up anything of value for Palmer. I guess it depends on how much you like Donnie Avery. Here's why I wouldn't buy Palmer:1. I remain skeptical that he's put the elbow problems behind him.2. The Bengals O-Line has been awful and will continue to be so. If you recall, Palmer couldn't generate any offense even before the elbow injury.3. Palmer has been "off" since the knee injury.4. He plays for the Bengals, and despite Bill Cowher's odd fascination with them making the playoffs next season, it's still a franchise in disarray. If the Bengals lose three games to start the season again in '09, it's right back down the rabbit hole for the whole franchise. They'll be playing in front of a sparse crowd at home. When I went back to Cincy for Christmas Break, every single season-ticket holder I talked to (20-25 total?) had given up their tickets for next year. Most decided to buy University of Cincinnati season tickets instead. The city has reached it's breaking point after 19 seasons that make the Lions look successful.I guess having said all of that, he's still Carson Palmer. There's still a slim chance that everything could break right and 2009 could bring him back to Top-10 production. I just don't have any interest in being invested in that.
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perry147
Footballguy
I noticed you did not include Jake Delhomme (also not Matt Moore) on your list. I was wondering what are your thought on either of these players. Any QB with Steve Smith to throw to has some fantasy value and the feeling I get is that Carolina is tired of Delhomme throwing INT's when they rae in must win games. Matt Moore has shown some promised before and I wonder if you think he wil get a shot at the starting job in training camp.Was taking a long hard look at this tonight. Here's my first rough-draft:TOP BUY-LOW CANDIDATES:1. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams2. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots3. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders4. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers5. Randy Moss, WR, Patriots6. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs7. Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins8. Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns9. Lee Evans, WR, Bills10. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers11. Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers12. Josh Morgan, WR, 49ers13. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers14. Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs15. Roy Williams, WR, Cowboys16. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers17. Trent Edwards, QB, Bills18. Torry Holt. WR, RamsTOP SELL-HIGH CANDIDATES1. Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins2. Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles3. Matt Cassel, QB, Patriots4. Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens5. Steve Slaton, RB, Texans6. Matt Forte, RB, Bears7. Antonio Bryant, WR, Buccaneers8. Thomas Jones, RB, Jets9. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons10. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Chiefs11. Tyler Thigpen, QB, Chiefs12. John Carlson, TE, Seahawks13. JaMarcus Russell, QB, Raiders14. Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, Vikings15. Kyle Orton, QB, Bears16. Bo Scaife, TE, TitansCarson Palmer, Chad Johnson? - Definitely not buys, but can't sell this low either.HOLDTony RomoJonathan StewartEdit to add: I guess it's kind of different than a straight "buy" or "sell" list. MJD should be the No. 1 "buy," but Dynasty leaguers are generally savvy enough to know that his value is going to be sky-high this offseason. He was a mandatory buy-low the past 2 years, but I don't know if you can call him a buy-low in 2009. Pierre Thomas was one of my favorite buys last offseason, but is he a buy-low right now? Tomlinson was a sell last summer, but I don't think I'd sell him right now.Good question. I haven't really sat down and looked hard enough to put together a list because we're still right in the heart of our playoffs. But that's not a bad idea. I'll make it my next mini-project.Who are you looking to move or acquire this offseason?I am looking for a list something like this
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I don't think Matt Moore has any shot at the starting job in training camp. His late rookie season "success" has always been a bit overstated, coming, as it was, on the heels of Chris Weinke, David Carr, and Vinny Testaverde. Worse, he imploded in training camp / pre-season action last year to the point where Carolina felt they had to go get Josh McCown because Moore wasn't ready to be the No. 2 guy.I'm no Delhomme apologist, but Carolina was a contender with him. They'd struggle to reach .500 with Moore.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Isn't Gonzo the TE equivalent of Kurt Warner? There is some uncertainty with him changing teams, but I think you could make an equal case for him as a buy low in that I could see trading WR upside for him. Do you not see him as a top 3 TE next year?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I think the uncertainty is with the Chiefs QB and new offense as opposed to Gonzo changing teams. If Thigpen and the spread offense stay, Gonzo has tons of value, but there's also a sizable risk that he could lose quite a bit of value very quickly. I would say Gonzo stays Top 1 or 2 with Thigpen and the spread, but I think he's far from guaranteed Top-3.I don't think Kurt Warner is a buy either. He was a buy last offseason.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
I disagree, or don't understand why you have these guys listed.If the owner is very concerned about the injury, I can see acquiring Brady but I think he'll still cost a lot in most leagues. I can't see getting him for less than the price you'd pay for Brees or Peyton. Same with Moss, but maybe more so. He started to produce well with Cassel - but if you can get him at a 5-10WR price, go for it.Portis just doesn't seem valuable in most leagues. IMO the guy is always underrated but produces. Why is he your #1 sell-high? What's high for him?The other 5, I just don't see getting much for. Seriously, is anyone buying Shiancoe or Orton? Or do you expect these 5 to be worthless in a year, so anything you get is good?
Sinrj
Footballguy
Hold and build around. He might even be a good buy with all the love for Stewart.
az_prof
Footballguy
As a FANTASY Qb, Big Ben is average--I sure don't want to rely on him except as a backup. But as an NFL Qb he has all the intangibles that make for a very good QB. Not sure he is a "great one" yet; he needs to do it for another seven or eight year and win another SB.
PranksterJD
Footballguy
I'd agree that Portis is a sell-high, the problem is that **no one** is buying. You can't get anywhere close to his value in points produced. He's a prime candidate for falling off the cliff in the next two seasons which is why I'd imagine F&L has him on his list. But in trying to sell him, I've found that there's not a soul who's interested. Its almost that you have to offer them something they can't refuse to take him off your hands.If you've got a team that competes, then he feels like a guy you have to ride into the ground unless an offer comes around close to his value ( not likely ). If you're trying to rebuild then the chances are that he won't help you when your championship run comes, so its time to move him. The problem is that its gonna hurt like a son of a ##### since you'll feel like you're not getting enough in return.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
like this buy low-sell high segment--some valuable info there.
What do you think of Steve Smith's chances of maintaining his value? Delhomme was so awful against ARI (and Fox so dumb for abandoning his running game in favor of Jake) I'm worried about some sort of regime change knocking his value down. Delhomme sucks but he definitely locks onto Smith--what do you think are the chances they go in another direction and what would that do to his value?
Additionally, at what age would you look to sell that type of WR? How long Galloway played makes me think he could be around awhile, but for a guy who's primarily advantage is being a burner, when are they likely to lose their speed?
What do you think of Steve Smith's chances of maintaining his value? Delhomme was so awful against ARI (and Fox so dumb for abandoning his running game in favor of Jake) I'm worried about some sort of regime change knocking his value down. Delhomme sucks but he definitely locks onto Smith--what do you think are the chances they go in another direction and what would that do to his value?
Additionally, at what age would you look to sell that type of WR? How long Galloway played makes me think he could be around awhile, but for a guy who's primarily advantage is being a burner, when are they likely to lose their speed?
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Sinrj
Footballguy
I'm down on Evans and Holmes. They have been buy low for many years with little result.
EBF
Footballguy
Chad Johnson is as obvious a buy low as you'll ever see. Time and time again we've seen proven talents undervalued because a number of variables conspired to keep their production down (Terry Glenn, Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Kurt Warner, Joey Galloway, and Antonio Bryant). Chad Johnson fits the mold to a T. He's a proven Pro Bowl talent who's being discounted way too quickly because he had a down year. With a little time to get his head right and heal, I think he bounces back for a 1000+ yard season in 09. Easy money if you can get him from someone who's soured on him.
Other than that I think F&L's list looks pretty good. I just traded Antonio Bryant for Ronnie Brown, so I hope he's right on those calls.
I would also add Pierre Thomas to the buy low list. There's a little bit of Chester Taylor mediocrity risk with him, but there's aslo some sneaky upside ala Michael Turner a couple years ago.
Other than that I think F&L's list looks pretty good. I just traded Antonio Bryant for Ronnie Brown, so I hope he's right on those calls.
I would also add Pierre Thomas to the buy low list. There's a little bit of Chester Taylor mediocrity risk with him, but there's aslo some sneaky upside ala Michael Turner a couple years ago.
EBF
Footballguy
Well Holmes has only been in the league for three seasons so I find it hard to believe that he's been a "buy low for many years."My feeling about those two guys is that they're solid talents who can be relied on to produce WR3 numbers for as long as they stay healthy. They might not be difference makers, but they're solid depth players who can help you win (think L. Coles or T. Glenn).Sinrj said:
WOW!!! I'm not sure I could trade Reggie Wayne for Ronnie Brown(not that I would) the other guy must have been really down on Ronnie Brown.I'm not sure I agree with you on Ocho Cinco. Outside of Smith, all those guys you named only rebounded when they were sent to another team. I think mike Brown is too stubborn to move Chad(especially for 50 cents on the dollar at best) and I don't really see him bouncing back as I've got little faith in Carson Palmer's mystery arm.
2 buy-lows I see are:
Tony Scheffler, just reading the boards, a lot of people seem to think he'll be fazed out of McDaniels offense. I don't see that happening and could see his role increasing with Shanny and his weird fascination with guys like Nate Jackson gone.
Darren McFadden, I agree with F&L on this one. The guy was the #1 pick in almost every rookie draft last year and with a full offseason to get his injuries healed he could explode next year, if he was in the draft this year I would probably take him with the #1 overall pick, but I doubt most owners value him anywhere near that highly.
2 sell-highs I see:
DeAngelo Williams, I just don't see it lasting. I think sooner rather than later, he and Stewart are going to be a 50-50 committee. Hell, it might have happened this year if Stewart hadn't been hurt. If I could get a guy like Lynch and a solid starter from another position I'd go for it.
Anthony Gonzalez, assuming Harrison is gone, I think there is going to be a ton of hype around this guy, but I haven't seen anything to suggest he's going to be anything special. Furthermore, I don't think he'll be the #2 guy in the passing game(Clark will) but I'm sure in most leagues there will be someone who thinks Gonzalez will just jump in and immediately become a top-15 WR.
stevegamer
Footballguy
I'd extend this to him being almost a "sell-never" - because you won't anything close to useful enough for him, and the risk in trying to get lucky is much worse than just letting him go off the cliff at some point. There always seem to be a few guys who nobody makes offers for in the off-season, and rarely in-season, who produce for you. Example: Warrick Dunn in PPR leagues comes to mind - he is what he is, and every year he gets older and is what he is, but is worth even less than the year before. He's ben a RB2-RB3 his whole career (RB 33 this year, his new low) and I can't think of the last time he had ANY value.PranksterJD said:
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I'd think about selling if I received an overwhelming offer, but it would be hard to move him. I'd call him a hold but certainly not untouchable.Harjiran said:
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I agree. When has Santonio ever been a buy-low before this offseason?That's a good point about them being able to produce WR3 numbers, plus their ceilings are much higher. Those are the guys you want to acquire. They can stay startable while their value is low, but they have WR1 ceilings if things break right.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I think Chad Johnson falls under the category of "somebody else's problem." His value is low, but that doesn't mean I have to make it my problem to see that it rises again. I don't want anything to do with any Bengals.I've always liked Pierre Thomas a lot, but are you really buying low with the way he closed out the 2008 season and Reggie Bush an injury risk?
EBF
Footballguy
I've experienced this to a lesser extent with Randy Moss and Brian Westbrook. I couldn't get Jonathan Stewart for Westy or Pierre Thomas + 1.11 for Moss. Someone tried to move Portis during the season and ended up settling for something like Felix Jones and a late 1st. It's VERY hard to move an aging star in dynasty (to the point where it's almost futile to try). On the flipside, people cling to their prospects like life preservers after a shipwreck. Dwayne Bowe may very well be a buy low because he still has upside, but you certainly aren't going to get a guy like him for cheap. There's a pretty good chance that whoever owns him in your league thinks D-Bo is the next TO/Boldin/Rice/etc.PranksterJD said:
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
This has been Portis' problem in Dynasty leagues for the past few seasons. His owners want everyone to admit he's a stud, but then they're constantly trying to sell him for an upgrade. I just hadn't realized his value had fallen as far as you guys are saying it has. Still a couple of years away from 30, still an everydown back with consistent carries, was an MVP candidate for much of '08, finished with 1,400+ rushing yards. I think he's a must-sell if you can get a talented younger player for him. If not, hang on and hope for the best. Me, I'd try to get creative and include him in a bigger package if I had to.
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EBF
Footballguy
I can understand that point of view, but my eyeballs get big every time I see a Pro Bowl talent being valued like a second rate bum. I think CJ is a player whose public profile has caused a lopsided backlash from football fans. The guy has elite production on par with almost any WR in the game, but everyone is writing him off after one bad season where he was playing with a torn labrum and catching passes from a guy who has no business being in the NFL. He's only 31 years old, so I don't think we've seen the last of him yet. He put up six 1,100+ yard seasons on the Bengals. For the price of a low rookie pick or mid round draft pick, I'm willing to bet he can do it again.
The Bush injury complicated things. I think you still might be able to find some owners who will sell Pierre cheap, but you're right, the window of opportunity may have already come and gone there. From my limited experience trying to acquire him, his actual trade cost is much higher than his ranking on the FBG dynasty list would lead you to believe. I think he's a guy to target if you're looking to move an old back (LT/Portis/Westy) for pieces.
Right, u have to get a creative package togetherI just moved...........
Portis, Jason Hill, Gates and Randy McMichael
for
MBIII, H Ward, Cooley and Scheffler
EthnicFury
Footballguy
That's the only way to get much IMO. I shopped him for awhile without much success, before eventually packaging Portis, Thigpen and Bess (both of whom I picked off of waivers) for Roddy White.I'm happy.
Sinrj
Footballguy
Holmes has been a player to target for the last three off season (this one included). Maybe not a buy "low" but definitely a buy. But thats not my point. I think Holmes took a step back this year and i'm not sure now if he still has WR2 potential. He looks more like a glorified Bernard Berrian to me.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Interesting. My main criticism of Holmes last off-season was that I questioned whether he could ever be a high-reception receiver because he's not physical and he doesn't fight for the ball in the traffic. Still, I think Holmes has a higher ceiling than Berrian and can be more consistent in the future. To your point that you think Holmes took a step back this year, that's exactly why he's a buy-low. It would have been much more expensive to acquire him last offseason than it is right now. I've added immaturity concerns to my earlier concern about ever being a high-reception receiver, but I still think his ceiling is high enough to roll the dice if the price is sufficiently low.Holmes has been a player to target for the last three off season (this one included). Maybe not a buy "low" but definitely a buy. But thats not my point. I think Holmes took a step back this year and i'm not sure now if he still has WR2 potential. He looks more like a glorified Bernard Berrian to me.
thehornet
Footballguy
Can you offer any insight on Michael Bush? Basically, where is he going, is he staying put in OAK. What will his role be on a team like SD if LT is gone. What type of workload can we expect if he ends up in a good situation, ie. how many carries? What is his fantasy floor and ceiling over the course of the next few years? Thanks brotha.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Delhomme has one more year left on his contract, and I'd be surprised if he isn't the starter again in '09. Smith loses some value due to instability at QB in 2010, but it's also possible that the next QB is better than Delhomme. To me, though, Smith is definitely Top-5 in talent at the position -- and possibly as high as Top-2 -- so he's almost certain to maintain value for the next few seasons.Steve Smith is one of those players I'm constantly trying to acquire. I traded him a couple of years ago in a package for Westbrook, and I've been trying to get him back since. I'm sure I'll try again this offseason, probably with Westbrook as bait in a package deal.EthnicFury said:
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Re: Brady. Do you disagree that it would cost much less to get him right now than it would have at this time last year? I know there are guys who would rather have a Phil Rivers or Matt Schaub, so I think it's possible to get him low with negative reports on his knee floating around. Re: Moss. Same thing. If he was the no-brainer No. 1 last off-season at this time, then he's a buy-low in the No. 8-12 area if you believe he has a chance to get back to No. 1 or No. 2 status. Re: Portis. Like I said a few posts earlier, I didn't realize his value had sunk so low in most circles, especially considering his near MVP season, but apparently it has. I had him at No. 1 sell-high because I though you could still get a young talent for him, and I believe his high-carry totals and constant injuries could have him hitting the cliff soon. Throw in the talk of the Redskins looking for an explosive back to pair with him, and I think he merits "sell" status.Re: Shiancoe, Orton. Orton got a lotta love on this thread around mid-season, so I assume he still has some backers. Shiancoe put up a very nice fantasy season and closed on a high note. He should have some value. To be clear, though, I'm not suggesting that you go out and try to sell Shiancoe or Orton one-on-one for another player. I think these guys are perfect for shining them up and including them as throw-ins on larger deals. After the season, I'm constantly trying to "cull the herd" on my roster, deciding which guys I want to get rid of because they don't fit my nucleus or because their value is higher than I believe their talent merits.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I don't know if I have any real insight here. I've liked him better than most on these boards over the past couple of months because I thought the Raiders were making a mistake in pushing him to fullback. His dominant Week 17 performance (albeit against a Bucs defense that had packed it in for the year) suggests he's plenty talented enough to run the ball in the NFL -- 27 carries, 177 yards, 2 TDs, 6.6 YPA. I suspect he will stay with the Raiders, which would leave his value very much up in the air. Cable & Co. moved him to fullback, but they also saw what he could do in Week 17 ... so it's tough to get a read on the coaches' intentions there. The Raiders claim Fargas is valuable because of his blocking and hard-running, but seriously, why is he holding back McFadden & Bush as lightning & thunder? Fargas isn't explosive, doesn't get the ball in the end zone, doesn't catch passes, and is a pedestrian option in an offense that desperately needs playmakers. I'd say his floor is moving to fullback while his ceiling is sharing touches with McFadden. Since RBs get injured quite often, a timeshare could open the door to a larger role if/when McFadden goes down for a game or series of games.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
If people prefer Schaub or Rivers, then sure, buy Brady. I just know his owners in my league will want Peyton, Brees, or perhaps another top 6-8 QB IF they also get a high 1st or a good RB, his value is still quite high in my circles. Same with Moss, but if you can trade a guy like Brandon Marshall, do you do it?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I would trade Marshall for Randy Moss, yes.
gorf
Footballguy
i know this post isn't the best example, and i know there are legitimate concerns about LT being cut. but i don't get all the LT bashing around here. i didn't seem him play a lot this year, so perhaps someone who has would have better insight, but his numbers were NOT bad. 1500+ yards from scrimmage plus 12 TDs was good enough for RB#5 in my PPR league -- less than two points from being RB#3. and this was a bad year? sure, it was nothing like the past few years, but jeez. i'll take that production from a guy that everyone seems to be writing off...
