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Dynasty Rankings (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
I like Ratliff. He's getting a big bump in next update . . . hopefully later today.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Yeah, I think the 15 range is realistic. That's right about where I'd have him with the obvious caveat that it's useless to rank college players before we know where they're going to play in the NFL.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
You have to rank guys with difference-making talent highly if you believe they're special. I believe Stewart is a special talent. You can always grab a cheap veteran and patch over at RB2 while he waits for an injury or another avenue of opportunity.I'd say the ranking is much more for long-term value than for 2009 value.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
I'm with you on Stewart.Recently traded Ray Rice and McClain for him...might lose out a little in the short term, but this guy has what it takes to be something special (I'm an Oregon homer, but that also means I've seen almost every game he played in college). Did you guys see that stiff-arm he laid on Ronde Barber this year?This is what a feature back looks like. Guy is shredded and has an absolutely ridiculous size/speed metric.
LBH
Footballguy
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Yeah, I think that trade is a no-brainer. You'd have to add a lot to the Rice/McClain package to get me to part with Stewart.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Steve Breaston looks like the biggest outlier to me. He's goota be way above guys like Hixon and Malcolm Kelly who he's currently around. Should be in the 4th tier around Berrian and Hines Ward imo. Thats about the value im seeing right now in trades and new drafts. Yes there are questions surrounding his situation but the guy put up 80 catches and over 1000 yards in his 2nd year.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I think Stewart has top 5 talent and it's just a matter of time until he can show it. I doubt it will be this year, barring something unforeseen. Despite DeAngelo's great 2008 season, I will not be surprised if Caroline is a 50-50 split this year.
I own Stewart in a couple of leagues and I doubt I would consider moving him due to my personal opinion of his long-term upside. The guy a few posts ago who got him for Rice & McCalin stole him.
I own Stewart in a couple of leagues and I doubt I would consider moving him due to my personal opinion of his long-term upside. The guy a few posts ago who got him for Rice & McCalin stole him.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Yeah, he deserves a bump in the next update. So much of his value is dependent on Boldin being traded, and I remain skeptical that the Cards will budge on Boldin. If all 3 WRs stay in Arizona, I don't see Breaston touching his '08 numbers again in '09. Has any team ever had back-to-back seasons of 3 WRs notching 1,000 yards? The odds are stacked against it.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Probably so but he showed the talent to be a good WR and thats half the battle imo. Even if Boldin stays he's only signed for two more seasons.
What are you thoughts on who will step in as the Bengals #2 if T.J. leaves?
I didn't see any Bengals games last year, so could someone comment on Chris Henry? Could this be the year that he gets his act together? Does he have the skills to be a #1 or #2 or will he be nothing more then a tease?
I didn't see any Bengals games last year, so could someone comment on Chris Henry? Could this be the year that he gets his act together? Does he have the skills to be a #1 or #2 or will he be nothing more then a tease?
stevegamer
Footballguy
Skills he has, brain he does not. I'd think one of the draftees from last year steps up by the end of next year or when Henry gets suspended again, whichever is sooner.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
It was tough to get a read on Henry's game in '08. He's an ultra-talented deep threat and big-play WR, but Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't throw the ball more than 10-12 yards down the field. It wasn't a good scenario for Henry to produce numbers. IMO, his past makes him a guy you can't count on. He's never going to be anything more than a roster stash -- and whatever production you get is gravy.Andre Caldwell, IIRC, started the last game or two of the season, and the coaching staff is very high on his work ethic. Jerome Simpson is more talented with a higher upside, but from all indications he's still a long way away from seeing legit playing time. If I had to guess, it will be Henry & Caldwell picking up the production from T.J.
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Frank Costanza's Lawyer
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus said:
Thanks guys, and thanks Jeff.stevegamer said:
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I tried hard to trade for him in one dynasty league. Wouldn't budgeLBH said:
broncofan13000
Footballguy
What's your thoughts on Luke Mccown? Looks like he's in the driver's seat to start in Tampa...
EBF
Footballguy
I don't know about that. I like Caldwell's game and was surprised to see him fall so far in the draft last season. He has good size and physical tools. He never really dominated at Florida, but I think he has a chance to develop into a quality starter in the NFL if he can stay healthy.
Simpson strikes me as your classic Tyrone Calico/Quincy Morgan/Bethel Johnson. Good athlete on paper. Terrible player on the field.
FUBAR
Footballguy
What were you offering / what was wanted?
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Just wanted to add some recent quotes from Marvin Lewis. Take it how you wish everyone.Bengals.com Jan 28 2009
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Schaub, Frerotte and Croyle are his only other QBs and I offered Rosenfels. I thought the backup to his number 1 guy was pretty good. Also have Thigpen and was offering him in a package for Ratliff. He must really like Ratliff. Oh well.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Would you take a QB we know is a backup for a guy with a legit chance to start? If you offered Thigpen in a package for just Ratliff, I'm surprised anyone wouldn't take it - but I assume you mean Ratliff +. Either way, Ratliff should be valued around QB35-40 right now IMO. Below backups with a chance to start like VY, Leftwich, and Leinart; but above guys like Rosenfels.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Yeah, can't remember the exact deals, but they weren't straight up. And this was 3 weeks or so ago when it wasn't certain that Favre would retire and no one was discussing Ratliff. Again, not saying he turned down great deals, just that he's more "coveted" than I would have thought. /endhijackWould you take a QB we know is a backup for a guy with a legit chance to start? If you offered Thigpen in a package for just Ratliff, I'm surprised anyone wouldn't take it - but I assume you mean Ratliff +. Either way, Ratliff should be valued around QB35-40 right now IMO. Below backups with a chance to start like VY, Leftwich, and Leinart; but above guys like Rosenfels.
BigJim®
Footballguy
I'm intrigued by the Ratliff talk. Putting Ratliff at 35-40, is that the first or 2nd NY Jet QB on your ranking? NY drafted Clemens pretty high and I think used a 5th to get Ainge, while Ratliff was an UDFA. Do people think Ratliff is truly going to be in the running for the job?
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munchkin
Footballguy
I heard Tannenbaum on Sirius yesterday and he said the it was pretty much Clemens and Ratliff with Ainge third. Of course he said the starting job was up for grabs and that all options were open including Free Agency and the draft for the QB position. So it was all GM speak as far as specifics other than it looked like Ainge was behind the other two.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I'd have Clemens right behind Ratliff, I just see Ratliff with higher upside.
EBF
Footballguy
I think Chad Johnson is one of the most obvious buy low candidates out there right now. The guy hangs up six straight 1,000+ yard seasons and after one down year in which he suffered a serious injury and lost his QB, everyone is ready to stick a fork in him. He's only 31 years old. As far as I know, none of his injuries are expected to linger. I think he has a lot of good football left in him and I'd be looking to buy in redraft and dynasty. As for the other WRs on the roster, I agree with F&L. Caldwell and Henry are the guys you want to target if Housh skips town. I think both of those guys have the potential to be contributors next season. There are no slam dunks here though. Henry has a huge knucklehead factor and Caldwell is always injured. Simpson is intriguing because of his draft position and opportunity, but thus far there's been no indication that he's anything more than a workout warrior who can't play football.
LBH
Footballguy
if it comes down to Ratliff vs Clemens, Ratliff will be the Jets next QB. I watched every snap of the Jets preseason and he just looks to have a presence in the pocket that Clemens doesnt have. Of course they were both playing vs backups and it was only preseason but anybody who watched Ratliff closely had to have come away impressed. Clemens had similar success in the 07 preseason but I still think that Ratliffs 08 preseason was better, not because of statistics but because of the way Ratliff moved withinn the pocket, and the way he seemed to make every throw when he needed to make it. I dont think any Jets fans are completely writing off Clemens. Hes still young with upside and he didnt get much of a chance behind a miserable OL in 07, but Ratliff just looks like the better player to me. I expect the Jets to sign a vet QB to throw into the competition, and think they will cut E.Ainge
gianmarco
Footballguy
Do you view Holt in the same way? He's only 32 and had 8 straight 1000 yd seasons until his 1 down year. You may point to the "knee injury" but we really haven't heard anything else on that since the news first came out 2 yrs ago and he still hung up a 93/1189/7 season with that knee. I would easily argue his decline this past year was much more due to his dissatisfaction with the coaching staff than anything else and his desire to get out which is likely going to happen.
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EBF
Footballguy
Knee injuries scare me, so I tend to shy away from players with knee issues. It seems to be a slippery slope. One little injury can gradually become a chronic thing where you're getting your knee scoped every offseason. Before you know it, you're a shell of your former self and you're on your way out of the league. Holt is young enough to bounce back and his track record is phenomenal, but he scares me a little more than CJ because he's had two straight years where he hasn't looked right. I might gamble on him in redraft. In dynasty, I'll let someone else take the risk.gianmarco said:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
He may have put up 1000 yards in '06 and '07, but he was a bust those years with his style of "I'm gonna do nothing for 8 straight games until you bench me, then put up 400yds and 5TDs in the next two games while I'm on your bench, so now you'll have to put me back in while I revert back to my 54yd 0td games for the rest of the year".I swear, the guy was just TRYING to play mind games with fantasy football owners.EBF said:
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I have Romo high on my list of Top-15 Dynasty League Sells this offseason. I'd say TDs will come down to around 22-26 if the Cowboys get rid of T.O.Here's the Romo blurb from that article:FreeBaGeL said:
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
The problem with Ocho is that 1,000 yards isn't good enough to get back into the Top 15 or 20 at age 31. He better get back to 1,300+ yards and more consistency, and I just don't see that happening with the state of the Bengals right now.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
LBH said:
I updated the rankings yesterday and put Ratliff right above Clemens. Ainge has no chance to do anything, and, you're right, is more likely to get cut. Clemens has the pedigree, Jaws' endorsement a couple of years ago, and a mulligan for playing behind an awful O-Line in '07. Ratliff has the much stronger '08 preseason and, I believe, an edge in the "it" factor at QB. But they're still going to bring in a veteran (Byron Leftwich?) who will be given every chance to take over.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I think you answered your own question.
gianmarco
Footballguy
That's what the talk was about but have never seen anything concrete on the matter other than some guesstimates that he'll be "80%" or whatever.As to EBF's statement above, not sure what you mean about not being right for 2 yrs. Sure, his #'s took a small dip to his normal amazing totals, but he still had 93 catches for almost 1200 yds and 7 TDs back in 2007. Don't forget how absolutely terrible that Rams team in 2007 was. We all read before the season started how Holt's knees were done for and yet he still had a top 10 season on a horrendous team. Watching him play that year he looked just like his old self but at the age of 31. My point about his knees are this. What have you heard or read about his knees since the beginning of 2007? I haven't heard a thing. I haven't read a thing. Not a single surgery. Not a single scope. Not a single game missed. I know exactly what you mean about avoiding guys with knee problems bc they can easily turn chronic, but we're usually seeing that in some form or another. I truly believe the talk about his knees was WAY overblown and just haven't seen a single thing else about it. Look at the post I quoted. Cookie is asking what it was about because it's been so long ago and there's been no further talk on it. Torry Holt has missed all of TWO games his ENTIRE CAREER dating back to 1999. Both games missed were in 2005. Since then, despite these "degenerative knees" for the last 2 yrs, he's missed all of 0 games. Up until 2008, he has 8 straight seasons of 1188 yds or more. Up until 2008, he has 6 straight seasons of 90+ catches or more (and 8 with 81+). Up until 2008, he has 5 straight years with 7 or more TDs. He's only 32. Now, I'm not saying he's ever going to return to that full form. But people now regard him as complete crap. He's worth next to nothing. If you're going to talk about a guy like Chad Johnson as being a buy low, then I don't see how Holt can't at least be included in the discussion, especially since his price tag is MUCH less than Chad's is right now. There's enough reasons to discount Holt for 2008 without blame resting on his degenerative knees that really didn't affect him when they were initially talked about in 2007. Just my $0.02 of course.
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Just curious about your recent update the big drop in Harry Douglas.
I know he's way down there on the rankings either way, but those are the rankings I like looking at as everyone has a different opinion about them.
Was just wondering if something happened to cause the drop.
I know he's way down there on the rankings either way, but those are the rankings I like looking at as everyone has a different opinion about them.
Was just wondering if something happened to cause the drop.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Hey F&L, I know at one point you had a kicker dynasty ranking on the Sons of Tundra. I can't seem to find one more recent than November. Basically I'm curious as to who I should bid on in FA, Folk or Prater.
Any ideas on these two?
Any ideas on these two?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I'd go with Folk for job security and accuracy reasons. Prater has a huge leg, but he's just not reliable enough. He missed way too many kicks in the second half of the season.I'll try to include kickers and defenses on the next update.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Nothing specific. I just think the guys who leapfrogged him have a better chance of becoming weekly fantasy starters whereas Douglas seems to have a lower ceiling. I think I'd still rather carry Laurent Robinson in a Dynasty league.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I think Robinson is one of the best buy low candidates right now. He was impressive at times as a rookie, then was hurt most of last season. Talent wise, he is good enough to start, but it remains to be seen how legit of a chance he gets to play. He is very under the radar right now, thus, a perfect buy low.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Those who don't want to wait for the update can get an advance idea of F&L's thinking on the first dozen or so by looking at his recent mock dynasty draft in post #3087. Here's the order in which he "drafted" them
Ks:Gostkowski, Stephen NE
Kaeding, Nate SD
Vinatieri, Adam IND
Bironas, Rob TEN
Hartley, Garrett NO
Kasay, John CAR
Folk, Nick DAL
Reed, Jeff PIT
Longwell, Ryan MIN
Elam, Jason ATL
Brown, Kris HOU
Rackers, Neil ARI
DTs:
Pittsburgh Steelers
New York Giants
Minnesota Vikings
Baltimore Ravens
Tennessee Titans
Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears
New England Patriots
Green Bay Packers
New York Jets
Dallas Cowboys
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buffalo Bills
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
No love for Crosby?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I don't see much separation in the kickers this offseason. Crosby has a nice leg and kicks for a good offense, but he's been at 79% both of his years in the league. That's below average anymore. I like him, but I don't see any reason to like him more than any of the other top 10-12 kickers.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Thanks. Good points.
thehornet
Footballguy
Stewart owner here as well. I also believe this guy has the ability to be a top 5 fantasy RB for years once given the chance. But when exactly do you guys think this will occur? When is Williams contract up? Can they franchise him. When exactly will Stewart get his chance as the #1 guy assuming DWill doesnt get hurt or totally stink? (the latter which isnt likely).love Stewart as a decent RB2 in 09 with great long term value
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I'll take "Who Knows?" for $800, Alex.Williams is signed through 2010. They could franchise him in the winter of 2011, but will they want to do that with a 28-year-old RB when they also have Jonathan Stewart? Another factor to consider is that change happens quickly in the NFL. It's tough to say with any certainty what will happen in the Panthers backfield over the next two seasons. What happens if Williams suffers an injury during the season? What if Stewart gets an opening to show his high-end talent? Chances are you're going to have to wait awhile to use Stewart as an every week RB2, but I think he can be a difference-making RB1 once he gets the opportunity by injury, free agency, or the unforeseeable.thehornet said:
