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Why do these two get higher gut rankings? They both seem like stopgap solutions. Vikes have already shown they will gladly take an upgrade. Would not be surprised to see the Niners get someone next year either, no matter who wins the position battle this summer. Neither of these guys is Kurt Warner - at best you're going to get a couple cheap Eli/Garrard-like years - or do you see more?
When everything went wrong for Garrard last year, he was still ~ a top ten fantasy QB, so I'd take that.
He'll have to show me that he can be the most productive RB in his own conference, heck, even his own division before I pencil him in the Top 3-5 in the league (Peterson, Forte, Gore, S-Jax, Wells, DeA, Stewart, Reg Bush, Turner not even included).There are plenty of talented young players on the horizon who are also set up in pretty nice situations going forward. I can see either of these guys emerging, including Moreno, to become upper-echelon RBs competing for top spots vacated by the declining Westbrook and LT: MJD (already there), D.Brown, Mendenhall, Slaton, Chris Johnson, RR, McFadden, Ronnie Brown, Lynch, and let's not forget a talented young guy still in N.E., LMEh, I don't like Moreno that much as an RB, but I still think he'll be a top 3-5 RB. This is Denver we're talking about. This is Ryan Clady, Ryan Harris, Ben Hamilton, and Chris Kuper (as well as Weigmann for at least one more season). This is the team that averaged 4.8 ypc last season. The team that took three guys who will probably combine for a dozen carries this season (Bell, Young, Hillis) and saw all three average over 5 ypc. I think Moreno will still be a stud because McDaniels has (imo stupidly) invested so much in him that he has no choice but to make Moreno a 3-down back. Hell, if he could, I think McDaniels would make Moreno a 5-down back. 300 carries in Denver will anyone a top-5 RB make.Edit: Actually, in terms of "average back in all-world situation", I think Knowshon Moreno is the new Joseph Addai. As a Broncos fan, I desperately hope he proves me wrong.
I like your analysis here......and I have many of the same conclusions myself. Not quite as high on Moreno as most and definitely have Wells as a much better RB. I do believe Moreno will be successful, just not some Top 3-5 RB that many are projecting, and I guess, hoping. Looks more Marshawn Lynch-ish than anything close to an LT....and let's not even mention Walter Payton in the same sentence as a comparison.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/redskinsi...o-be-close.html
It's just a gut call, nothing more.My gut likes Shaun Hill because all he's done is produce for a team that can't get any other QB to produce, and yet, they keep trying to replace him. How often do you see a team trying to replace a QB with a 7-3 record, 90+ passer rating, 64% on completions, and 7.0 YPA? Especially when the other quarterbacks they've had have been pathetic losers? My gut wants Shaun Hill to stick it to the Niners front office and all the analysts who don't think he has the arm or the ability. All he's done is produce. It's not out of the realm of possibility that his success carries over into the season, and he establishes himself with two young studs in Josh Morgan and Michael Crabtree to go with an improved Vernon Davis. Re: Rosenfels. It comes down to my faith in the Vikings offense as a potential scoring machine this season. Rosenfels isn't a very good NFL starting QB. His penchant for turnovers and bad decisions makes him a backup instead of a long-term solution. But, unlike, Tarvaris Jackson, Sage can produce fantasy numbers. He's not afraid to take chances down the field, and his shocking career 7.4 YPA shows that he's often successful. Unlike Tarvaris or Frerotte, he can open up this offense. Think about the Vikes offense and the ingredients they have for fantasy success: - The best runner in the game (Peterson)- One of the best deep-threat burners in the game (Berrian)- One of the most unique playmaking weapons in the game (Harvin)- A wildcard redzone weapon with great leaping ability (Rice)- An outstanding third-down back (Taylor)- An above average to upper tier offensive line- A solid all-around TE (Shiancoe)- An H-Back with great blocking ability (Kleinsasser)Now add to that a QB who can make plays down the field instead of settling for the dump-off, and we're talking fantasy gold.In fact, this sounds like a good blog topic. I'll be right back ...thriftyrocker said:
http://www.houstontexans.com/news/Story.asp?STORY_ID=5414
It also appears Slaton is now over 220 lbs.. Bulking up for Goal line carries? Slaton is almost a sure bet for top 10 RB numbers this year, mark it down.
On the flip side, the last time Slaton bulked up his production he vastly declined and he basically lost his job. Not saying he'll lose his job to anyone on the Texans roster, but I don't really think Slaton getting bigger is a wise move on his part.
I've just got a lot of faith in the scheme and the line. This is the same system that produced two top-20 RBs in the same season. The same system that helped Portis average 5.5 yards per carry in back-to-back seasons. The same system in which Terrell Davis ran for 2,000 yards despite sitting out the equivalent of two games (in four games that season, he didn't play a down after halftime). The same system that turned TATUM BELL into a quality fantasy RB last season after no other team in the league would even bring him in for a tryout. In order for an RB to wind up with a huge piece of pie, they either need a massive percentage of a small pie, or a small percentage of a massive pie. Even if Moreno only gets 60% of the touches in Denver, provided their defense can return to mediocrity, he should be an annual top-10 RB and make regular appearances in the top 5.kremenull said:
I sincerely hope you're right. As a Broncos fan, I'm unaccustomed to this "rebuilding" thing, and it does not make me happy.Fear & Loathing said:
I don't quite understand this argument. Doesn't it assume the Denver O-Line will be just as effective rush-blocking in three years as it has been the last 3-4 years????? Is that a realistic assumption???? I really don't think so.Projecting Moreno high THIS YEAR because of the great O-line is one thing....projecting a great career while basing those projections heavily on that O-line are quite another.
This would have been a fair comment a couple years ago, but not now. 3/5 of the Broncos o-line are young guys within their first few years (Harris, Clady, Kuper) that they developed within the system. These guys aren't going away soon. The question now is if McDaniels will muck enough with the offense that the running system is no longer successful.
In the Peyton Manning, Tom Brady neighborhood. Considering his age, I'm having a hard time keeping him in Tier 2 rather than Tier 1. It's probably coming soon.
So he's fat now? I don't like the sound of that. "Snacks Slaton." I don't know, it doesn't work for me.
Ryan Clady turns 23 in September, and is already playing at an all-pro level. Ryan Harris just turned 24, and is already playing at a pro-bowl level. Chris Kuper turns 27 at the end of the season, and is a quality starter. Ben Hamilton is 32, a strong starter, and equally able to play either guard or center (when Nalen went down back in... '03, iirc... Hamilton became the starting Center and acquitted himself very well). The only piece that looks to change or decline within the next 3 seasons is center Casey Weigmann, but Denver already has several options in place to replace him (either slide Hamilton over and replace Hamilton with a younger guard, or else promote backup Kory Lichtensteiger). The line, in addition to be likely the best in the league, is also one of the youngest and most stable, so even if you think it's the line and not the system, that's no reason to downgrade Moreno when projecting 3 years out.Of course, as a Denver fan, I can tell you with certainty that it's much more than just the line. In fact, more than anything, it's the coaching. It's the way they drill the "no negative play" mentality into the RBs, the way they play less talented "system backs" over more talented freelancers, the way they coach and develop offensive linemen, and the commitment they have to the running game through thick and thin. The reason why the scheme has succeeded in Denver and not elsewhere is because of coaching and commitment. And the coaching is exactly the same- Offensive Line coach Rick Dennison and RB coach Bobby Turner were the only two staff members retained from the previous regime, which suggests to me that McDaniels isn't a COMPLETE moron- when somebody smacks him across the face with something, he can see and appreciate how effective it truly is. Both Dennison and Turner are among the most highly respected position coaches in the league, and both have interviewed for offensive coordinator positions (Turner interviewed for the New Orleans OC position, and Kubes tried to hire Dennison away, which is why Shanahan changed his title to "Offensive Coordinator" and changed Heimerdinger's title to "Assistant Coach/Offense"). The only other teachers of the ZBS on par with Dennison and Turner are Alex Gibbs and Gary Kubiak... and I'd argue that any team that has hired either of those two *HAS* had incredible success running the ball. Look at the numbers Dom Davis and Steve Slaton put up (or Ron Dayne, for that matter!) in Houston. Atlanta led the league in rushing for 3 consecutive years after switching to the ZBS, and while a lot of that was on Vick, Dunn also put up three of the four highest rushing totals of his 12-year career under Gibbs.
Works for me! Great response. THANKS!The only thing I would add is that I still think it's a bad idea to rank a guy high primarily based on situation...but obviously a good player in a perfect situation is not much differant from a great player in a weak situation.
I agree that, 98% of the time in dynasty, talent beats opportunity senseless, takes its lunch money, and uses it to buy a trophy case for all those SB championships... but I think there's exceptions. There are some situations that transcend "great situation" into the realm of "perfect situation". I made the Joseph Addai comparison earlier- Addai is an uberstud as long as he's starting for the Colts, because "Indy RB" is one of those "perfect situations". Another "perfect situation" is "WR1 for a Jake Delhomme-led offense", or "QB in a Mike Martz offense". Those situations will cause me to rank a player higher than I think their talent merits.Of course, Addai also demonstrates the drawback to ranking a player higher than his talent merits- if a player's not that talented, regardless of how productive he is, he's eventually going to be replaced. I'd be a lot lower on Moreno projecting 5 or 6 years out than I would be projecting 2 or 3 years out. All I can say is that I hope I'm dramatically underestimating his talent level.
Slaton was pretty bad at goal line and red zone work last year.Red zone: 63/131/6 rushing (2.1 ypc) and 9/17/0 receiving (1.9 ypr), with 1 fumble lost
Some really good stuff here and thanks for sharing your thoughts on this.
The situation could not really be better imo. Not only did they take Moreno but also Richard Quinn who is going to be a load blocking for him. Some like Bloom criticized the pick but I think he lives up to the price paid to get him. Also perhaps more importantly in regards to Moreno it shows serious commitment to the running game as a staple of the offense.As far as his talent your not alone in your assessment. EBF and others well versed in the college game think his talent is not elite. Decent yes. Good enough yes. But not jaw dropping good. And maybe they are right. We really won't know until the pads come on and some real games played can test it.However I just wanted to point out on a personal level that your assessment of Moreno's talent may be tempered by the anti-homerism cautions you may have. I know myself in regards to Harvin and AD.. I was reluctant to believe in them whole heartedly just because they are Vikings and I was trying to not see things from a purple hued view.Maybe the same is true with you in regards to him in Denver.I think he has plenty of talent. Much more than I ever thought of Addai. In the end I just see no drawbacks here. What is not to like?It will take serious bad luck (injury) or ridiculous clownish behavior for Moreno to somehow mess this up.I don't think he will.
Heard it looked like quality weight from a Houston homer that attended camp. He said that Slaton hasn't lost a step based on what he saw. Based on your ranking of Slaton I have to ask why are you so down on him? A great WR on the outside to take pressure off, good hands, big play ability, good vision...etc...what is there not to like?
You just had to go and bring up Richard Quinn, didn't youSome really good stuff here and thanks for sharing your thoughts on this.The situation could not really be better imo. Not only did they take Moreno but also Richard Quinn who is going to be a load blocking for him. Some like Bloom criticized the pick but I think he lives up to the price paid to get him. Also perhaps more importantly in regards to Moreno it shows serious commitment to the running game as a staple of the offense.As far as his talent your not alone in your assessment. EBF and others well versed in the college game think his talent is not elite. Decent yes. Good enough yes. But not jaw dropping good. And maybe they are right. We really won't know until the pads come on and some real games played can test it.However I just wanted to point out on a personal level that your assessment of Moreno's talent may be tempered by the anti-homerism cautions you may have. I know myself in regards to Harvin and AD.. I was reluctant to believe in them whole heartedly just because they are Vikings and I was trying to not see things from a purple hued view.Maybe the same is true with you in regards to him in Denver.I think he has plenty of talent. Much more than I ever thought of Addai. In the end I just see no drawbacks here. What is not to like?It will take serious bad luck (injury) or ridiculous clownish behavior for Moreno to somehow mess this up.I don't think he will.
. I don't hate the pick QUITE as much as the Moreno pick (mostly because I never saw Quinn and therefore haven't formed an opinion that his talent didn't warrant the selection like I have with Moreno, but also because a 2nd rounder is significantly cheaper than a 1st), but I still thought it was a frivolous pick. A blocking TE is something you take in the second round when you're trying to put the finishing touches on a team... not when your defense has arguably the least talented front 7 in the league and they're playing a scheme for which they are comically ill-suited. Especially when you already have the best blocking TE in the league on your roster (and when he's only 30 and therefore still in his prime). I definitely understand the value of an awesome blocking TE... I just don't understand the value of an awesome blocking TE *TO THIS TEAM*.With regards to your anti-homerism theory... I will admit that there are players that I dislike just because I think it was stupid of us to pick them up. Richard Quinn, for one. Correll Buckhalter/Lamont Jordan for another- I probably think of them as less talented than they really are because I thought we were set just fine at RB before we ever added them. In this case, however, Moreno's not one of them. I'm a UF fan, so I'm generally very familiar with college players in the SEC. I disliked Moreno as a player long before he ever winded up on my team. In fact, before the draft I felt sorry for whichever squad wound up with him. Little did I know that that would be *MY* sorry squad.Also, I hate the Robert Ayers pick, too. This isn't because I hated Robert Ayers before the draft... it's because I didn't have the first clue who Robert Ayers *WAS* before the draft... and if I have no idea who an SEC player is, I think it's absurdly stupid for my team to be drafting him in the first round. How good could he be if he was anonymous on a Tennessee squad so terrible that there was really only one guy to outshine him (Eric Berry)?Edit: Seriously. We're the Oakland Raiders. I think I'm going to cry. :(
I think Harvin's rushing ability and Childress's eagerness to involve him in the offense both give him a significantly higher floor than any other WR in this past draft.
F&L is one of the least biased person on this board, but he is not perfect. I am not shocked when he hears that Slaton put on weight that he would automatically assume it was fat. I also heard he put on weight through weight traiing and hasnt lost a step. I also heard he did so to improve his short yardage abilities. I wonder if this off season conditioning program had something to do with the Texans not addressing the RB position in the offseason. I dont care how much you dislike Slaton, i dont see how anyone can believe Chris Brown or some undrafted rookies are going to be a threat.I also dont understand what F&L or anyone else has against him anymore. The only real point i thought people may have had last year is the he was undersized. Even though i didnt think that was a big issue, i still understood why others did. I would like to hear a good argument against him now however. I love Chris Johnson, but the only real advantage i see he has over Slaton is speed. That however didnt stop Slaton from having more 40+ yard plays from scrimmage than CJ(5-3). So his speed certainly cant be the issue. Slaton also appears to be the better pass catcher.
I understand your point, but I see some warning signs that makes me disagree with his floor being higher then crabtree,nicks.
Absolutely. It's the only way to go.
I recall you saying you didnt like him because he was too small and lacked the top speed to compensate for it. Also that he couldnt handle a full workload and was likely a 3rd down back. I think at this point all those things have been disproven. So i guess my question is what about his talent do you not like? Im not trying to win an argument, but if there is something i am missing about Slatons abilities, or lack of them, i would like to know what it is. This question isnt neccassarily directed at F&L, but to anyone who can point out something that i might be missing.
I'm feelin' the AF love in HOU.(Rotoworld) Texans coach Gary Kubiak praised undrafted rookie Arian Foster following Monday's training camp practice.
A couple of points.First off, 25 pounds is a TON OF WEIGHT to pack on in an offseason. Like, a ridiculous, ludicrous, absurd amount of weight. If a 300 pound defensive tackle packs on 25 pounds, it's a big deal- if a 195 lb RB does it? That's a HUGE deal. That's almost a 13% increase in mass over a 6-month span, and I have a very hard time believing someone managed that and it was "all muscle". We're not talking about some out-of-shape kid who starts hitting the gym really hard and bulks up. Steve Slaton was an NFL player (and a good one, at that!). He was a finely tuned athletic machine in peak physical shape. Finely tuned athletic machines in peak physical shape simply don't add 25 more pounds of muscle in 6 months because they just woke up one morning and decided it'd be a good idea.
This is precisely what I've said about L. White and his offseason weight loss. It might end up being good for White in that he becomes a better, faster runner but right now his bread and butter is being able to move the pile with that big body. Will losing 30 pounds reduce his effectiveness to do the one thing that he's done so well? I think it may improve White's FA prospects but may hurt him this year in his job share with CJ.
Awesome, so go back to my last post and replace "13% increase in mass over the last six months" to "9% increase in mass over the last 6 months". Everything else stays... pretty much the same.
I don't quite believe something in the reports of exactly how much weight was gained. I think the problem that I'm having is that I just don't believe that Slaton's actual weight was accurately reported last season. From watching him play, how he ran through tacklers much better than advertised, and from just his profile in comparison to other smaller RBs (like Chris Johnson), Slaton, IMO, as I don't have the proof to back it up, looked more like he played in the 205-210 range. There is no way this guy was at 195 when he played last year. Also, when I first heard the report of Slaton's recent weight gain, it mentioned that he gained only 9 lbs from last season....so at 224 lbs now, that would have put him at 215 previously.Oh yeah, and Slaton is a STUD!!!! I really don't care about comparing him to Chris Johnson, Slaton's numbers will be just as good or better.
I've been following your blog now religiously since I joined my first dynasty league a year ago. It has been a great help to me. Keep up the great work!
What can you tell me about Arian Foster? I can honestly say that I've never heard his name before. I tried to look him up on our FleaFlicker site, but he wasn't even listed so I guess he is in fact a deep sleeper. What makes you think so highly of him?u r killing me with this. LOL
Make up the facts to fit your emotions? Not a good move. haha
I'm curious about Jamall Lee. From what I've read, Mike Goodson is the one to keep an eye on in CAR. Anybody got more info on Lee?ETA--found a post on Lee with the search function (duh!):
Although I don't even think your comment even dignifies a response, let me just say this. Who the hell are you, or anybody else in here, that I have to make up stuff and lie about anything to you or anyone else on a message board? Now, my position was that in looking at Slaton, I didn't see a 195 lb RB. And why do I believe this? Because I've watched enough football and been around enough athletes to estimate a player's size. And using Chris Johnson as a gauge of a guy who I am certain was no more than 200 lbs just by looking at him, I believe that Slaton was significantly bigger, at least 10 lbs.
If it really is a 9 pound difference, then that's a completely different animal. 9 pounds on an RB is nothing more than baby fat- they shed it all by the end of the season, anyway. I'd love to hear some more convincing reports, though- some says 25 pounds, some say 18, some say 9. It kind of sort of matters a bit.Regardless of the weight issue, I do agree that Slaton's not as talented of a runner as a Chris Johnson. I know he puts up good numbers, and I think he'll continue to do so because I think Houston's rushing offense (and Kube's commitment to the run) is going to closely mirror Denver's. However, remember the thing about Denver- a guy like Reuben Droughns is talented enough to put up awesome fantasy numbers... but he's not talented enough to keep the job forever. Unless a guy's a Terrell Davis or a Clinton Portis, he's getting replaced before too long. Is Steve Slaton more Clinton Portis or Mike Anderson (talent-wise, not style-wise)? I don't know. I guess your opinion of his long-term prospects is going to pretty closely mirror whichever side of that comparison you come down on.
Slaton is as good as Portis........and Terrell Davis. I don't see where people are getting that this kid is just your run-of-the-mill RB. His track record since he stepped onto the campus at WVU suggested that he could, and more than likely would, be a star. The doubts that surfaced somewhere along the line (whether legit or not, who knows), IMO, these doubts (durability, toughness running inside, whatever else may have been the concern) have been completely erased by his first year performance. Once I saw him truck the TEN safety at the goal line and put cleat marks across his chest (a little exaggerated, the cleat marks, that is), that right there was a telling sign, in my eyes. Now, the smart thing to do is to go back to what most originally thought of him as a frosh/soph in college. But check out these two plays back-to-back in the TEN gm....beginning at 1:50 of the reel
whoa-oa-oa there, now. There's a big-time difference between "he's no Clinton Portis" and "he's just your run-of-the-mill RB". Slaton had a very nice year last year. He averaged 103.7 yards per game, and managed 10 TDs. His ypc was an impeccable 4.8. Of course, Portis averaged 117.1 yards per game @ 5.5 yards per carry his rookie year, and tacked 17 TDs on top, despite the fact that he only started 12 games (vs. 15 for Slaton). His sophomore year, Portis put up 146.6 yards per game (again at 5.5 ypc). Portis has also topped 103 yards per game in 4 of his 5 seasons in Washington. Slaton's a good RB, but he's no Clinton Portis.And Terrell Davis? We're talking about a guy who's a 3-time first-team All Pro, a two-time OPoY, a league and SB MVP, the greatest postseason rusher in NFL history (no argument possible). A guy who rushed for 2000 yards in essentially 14 games (because he sat out the second half of four contests that were already blowouts). A guy who put up perhaps the most dominant rushing season of all time in a year when rushing yardage in the NFL was at an all-time low. A guy who is arguably a Hall of Famer based entirely on four seasons in the league. The only back better than Barry Sanders when Barry Sanders was in his prime. I suppose Slaton's as good as Gale Sayers and Bo Jackson, too, right?
In conclusion: You are obsessed with Chris Johnson and not a fan of Slaton at all. Slaton is much, much, much better than you give him credit for and Chris Johnson isn't quite as good as you preach. Durability is a big hurdle in becoming a a top flight running back. Im not so sure Slaton and Johnson are much different in that department. Sure Chris Johnson does everything *a bit* better than Slaton, but the gap isnt as wide as you want it to be. It's just not.
Nope, he's not.....those guys were phenomenal athletic specimens. Portis and Davis are very good football players, but not anywhere near what I'd consider some of the most prime talent to ever play the game, and the position of RB (aside from the two you mentioned, Jim Brown, Barry, OJ, Payton, Dickerson, LT, Peterson.......yeah, this list ain't that long).But I certainly believe that Slaton is just as good as Portis AND Terrell. And if he plays on teams like Portis and Terrell that highlight and utilize his talents, and he can hold up over time, then yes, he could pretty much match what they do. Now when you consider Portis' consistency over the years, or Davis' high-production few years' run, no, it won't be easy for Slaton to match either. But I'm going strictly off of ability and what he can produce in the next few seasons. I'd certainly put a healthy Ahman Green, Priest Holmes, even Ricky Williams when he was motivated, in the same class as Portis and Terrell. Final numbers production is irrelevant, I'm talking about in the overall big picture, if Green/Holmes/Ricky don't get hurt and/or lose their marbles, then they too could have been just as productive as Davis/Portis based on similar abilities and talent level. My primary point is that these two guys (Porits/Davis) are/were not all-world talents. It is what it is. Talented, yes. Amongst the elite talents of their own generations, no.....And with this conclusion of mine, I won't even mention of All-Time.
So Steve. When did you join the SharkPool?
