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UFC wagering: breaking news - judging is so terrible it got me to return here to update this thread title (2 Viewers)

Clayton Gray said:
Manuwa retires. LHW looks so different than it did a couple of years ago.
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Crazy that the best prospect the division has seen since Jon Jones has been a 28 year old Anthony Smith, 40 fights into his professional career.  Although, a couple more Walker fights could change my mind. 

When I was getting into MMA, 205 was the premier division and it wasn't even close.  Now it's an absolute wasteland outside of Jones.  I think when it comes down to it, the ideal male athletic body after a significant weight cut is between 155-175 lbs.  The 185lb weight class has always been made up of physical freaks and weird style sets have gone a long way.

Since UFC 1 I feel as though the skillsets required for success have evolved from BJJ --> Striking ---> Wrestling.  With wrestlers used to lifelong weight cuts, it makes senses that the ideal weight of a prime fighter has gone down.

Even more reason for a 175 lb division.  No need for a 225lb, unless 265 is increased to 295.

 
hooter311 said:
the ideal male athletic body after a significant weight cut is between 155-175 lbs.
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It's just that there are way more men at 155/170.  If you took a sample size of all the guys in the FFA we would probably have most in the same weight classes (assuming we were all in MMA shape). 

 
Clayton Gray said:
I'd be really surprised if that goes past three rounds.
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Two years ago, I couldn't imagine picking against Ferguson in this spot.  But Donald is in such good head space right now, but to come back a month after a 5 round main event is unprecedented at this level.  Also unprecedented was Tony having to get mentally cleared to fight after estranging his wife and child.  So hard to tell the mental fatigue on a guy as weird as Tony, and I say that in the most complimentary way possible.

UFC had to know Donald was a disadvantage in this spot so I think it's obvious they are hoping for a Tony win and hopefully book Khabib/Tony by New Years.

Really want Cerrone to get the next McGregor fight, with the ESPN deal I don't see how they can offer enough incentive for Conor to fight anyone but Khabib and I think we all know how that ends again.  Gaethje vs McGregor would be my next fantasy.

 
Punxsutawney Phil said:
It's just that there are way more men at 155/170.  If you took a sample size of all the guys in the FFA we would probably have most in the same weight classes (assuming we were all in MMA shape). 
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If you add back in 15 lbs for the weight cut, I would agree with you.  Average in shape male 5'9-6'2" walks around at 170-185 lbs I'd guess. 

 
modogg said:
hmm, i would have to go back and watch. Maybe i am just remembering his fights wrong or thinking of someone else. I though he had some good wars in there. I know people hated him because he talked about being a model and was kind of arrogant about it.

although i did just try to look up Theoudruea highlights on youtube and not a whole lot popped up

ETA: checking out his fights, i think i am remembering early career Elias, and not when he stepped up in competition
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One of the more active fighters on twitter, good-hearted personality. 

But like craig said, simply a point fighter at this level.  I'm sure he can make more money and have more eventful fights with other promotions.

 
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Clayton Gray said:
I'd be really surprised if that goes past three rounds.
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Both slow starters and Pettis was stopped by the towel, not Tony.  Tony actually has just as many corner stoppages (2) as actual KO/TKOs (2) in 15 ufc fights.

Tony uses momentum so well to avoid major damage and Donald will want to bite down and go at it rather than chase him.  I think it will be Donald stopping it late with strikes if there is a finish.  I can't see Tony's unorthodox ground style working at all against Cerrone, I could be wrong and that may be his best path to victory but it sure doesn't seem like an easy one.

 
kutta said:
I’m also not a fan of Gustafsson, but he did more in that Jones fight than just not get finished. That was by far Jones’ toughest fight, and he came close to winning it.

But other than that fight, I’m not impressed.
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Yep, a man lost his soul chasing greatness that night.

 
Clayton Gray said:
I'd be really surprised if that goes past three rounds.
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UFC ppv numbers for the next year or so at the very least are going to be dismal.  Since going to ESPN app only, last 2 ppv's have been under 100k buys.  Zero chance of a UFC PPV doing 1 million buys right now. 

This is why Brock bailed, and why Conor won't fight.  Fight careers are a very limited, unrenewable resource why risk your health to not get full value on the dollar.

This is Bellator's chance to gain market share by continuing to focus on talent instead of product.

 
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I was all-in on Cejudo has a 2-1 dog against Dillashaw, but still debating which way I lean Saturday night.  I want to wait to see what they look like face to face at the ceremonial weigh in.

Moraes has a significant MMA advantage, but Cejudo is just as good of an athlete as he says he is.  Still not sure how the striking will play out, Moraes has had some incredibly opportunistic finishes lately, three first round finishes in a row coming in is unheard of at 135 lbs.  Seems like he is going to need a 4th, or will have a very hard time overcoming on the scorecards.  He won't be getting any top work on the mat with Cejudo, can promise you that.

 
hooter311 said:
UFC ppv numbers for the next year or so at the very least are going to be dismal.  Since going to ESPN app only, last 2 ppv's have been under 100k buys.  Zero chance of a UFC PPV doing 1 million buys right now. 

This is why Brock bailed, and why Conor won't fight.  Fight careers are a very limited, unrenewable resource why risk your health to not get full value on the dollar.

This is Bellator's chance to gain market share by continuing to focus on talent instead of product.
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Backdoor stream quality has improved from what I’ve seen. 👍

 
hooter311 said:
Both slow starters and Pettis was stopped by the towel, not Tony.  Tony actually has just as many corner stoppages (2) as actual KO/TKOs (2) in 15 ufc fights.

Tony uses momentum so well to avoid major damage and Donald will want to bite down and go at it rather than chase him.  I think it will be Donald stopping it late with strikes if there is a finish.  I can't see Tony's unorthodox ground style working at all against Cerrone, I could be wrong and that may be his best path to victory but it sure doesn't seem like an easy one.
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ESPN breakdown with Dom Cruz was saying Donald needs to throw knees vs Tony.  I think I agree.

 
Teddy Stickles said:
Did you see Cejudo's reddick cosplay?  He tries way too hard in going the CMG route...  :thumbdown:
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He is the cringe-iest fighter in the UFC.

"I don't believe in magic.  I believe tricks are for kids."

Did you know he has a gold medal?  Lol

 
hooter311 said:
Donald will piece him up at range.  If Tony closes the distance, Cerrone is going to need knees to keep Tony off him because Ferguson's elbows are as good as it gets.
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After watching Ferguson vs Michael Johnson, I'm not sure I like Tony vs a superior striker in a 3 round fight.  I could see a decision going to Cowboy.  

It depends which cowboy we see.  He looked great vs a smaller Iaquinta, but Tony is bigger.  Cerrone looked like crap vs Masvidal.  https://youtu.be/l7bDdN6fXPA

Also, Michael Johnson is a southpaw which is difficult to go up against.

 
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Oof  that was a nice knockout by Kattar. Lamas didn't know what hit him.

 
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ILUVBEER99 said:
Ferguson beat the living #### out of Cowboy in round 2.  Probably better it was stopped.  Round 3 would have been a bloodbath.

Round 1 was competitive.  
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True story.

Sterling was even better than I expected.

Grasso, Kattar, and Shevchenko looked amazing.

Cejudo looked great after the first. I'm amazed. He's so terrible on the mic, though.

Suarez has a lot of work to do.

Overall, one of the best cards ever. The only fight that was a snoozer was Stewart/Lewis.

 
Would have loved to have seen a 3rd but Tony was clearly pulling away with it.  Those spinning elbows he threw were cool.  He is very creative and fun to watch.

 
modogg said:
had no idea that guy was still fighting, let alone in the UFC. Have always been a fan
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Ready for mind-exploder #3?  He's only 34.  

He has that Karo Paryisan thing going on --   He had 21 pro fights under his belt before he turned 25 years old.   

 
Just about tripped when I saw Matt Wiman's name on the card this weekend.

5 year UFC hiatus, that may be the longest one yet.  I don't believe the gap was due to injury though.

Where TJ Grant at?  Mike Pierce?

Stupid Palhares (Pierce), and concussions (Grant).  Brilliant careers cut tragically short.

 
AhrnCityPahnder said:
Ready for mind-exploder #3?  He's only 34.  

He has that Karo Paryisan thing going on --   He had 21 pro fights under his belt before he turned 25 years old.   
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Popov was a year older than Wineland in the matchup for a couple weeks ago too, despite being his UFC debut.

I looked for every reason to take Popov against Eddie, but I couldn't find one.  Unless you have a considerable speed advantage, Eddie can still more than hold his own in the striking department at 135 lbs.

 
Wiman has one win since 2012.  Rough.  His best UFC win wasn't even in this decade (Thiago Taveras UFC 85 6/7/2008).   He made his way to UFC via Ultimate Fighter 5!  Diego Sanchez is the only other guy still around from that period (UF 1).  Wiman was booked in early 2015, but was pulled due to a back injury.  Old athletes with bad backs are going to have a tough time at 155 these days.  No more guys like Paul Sass around to beat.

Pena is a dumpster fire of talent.  Those weight cuts to 145 (not that they were always successful), had to be a toll.  But I've rarely seen someone as unsuccessful at securing a finish with as many reversals and as much control as he had against Peterson last time out.  Peterson has no business in the UFC but was able to put Pena in trouble multiple times in round 3.  Transitioning from 145 to 155 shouldn't be as dramatic difference in strength as the guys trying to go from 155 to 170.

The guys at AKA rant and rave about Pena so I have to believe that the skill set is there somewhere to start capitalizing.  

Pena/Wiman Doesn't go to decision is currently open at 5d at +105.  I'd grab it now if you want a plus number.

 
UFC Tuesday Night Contender Series also back this week on ESPN+

Alton Meeks is a scary dude at HW.  Might have the slapstick comedy duo of Alex Nicholson/Mike Perry in his corner as well.

 
Another extremely tough style test for the Korean Zombie this weekend.  Not sure how to cap him after that heartbreaker losing in the last second of a 5 round fight, but Jung has to be one of the more mentally strong fighters on the roster.  Don't see how anyone could touch Moicano at -185, that's for sure.

 
Punxsutawney Phil said:
Started watching this live press conference for Artem / Malgiani.  Some good schtick.  When Artem calls a group of hecklers wearing Magic gear "magic Mike gonna take off your clothes" lol. 

https://youtu.be/YIiJ9V_BYdA
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I actually want to see this fight.  If anyone has a stream, please PM me.  I think they cracked down big time on my usual, go-to reddit mma stream thread.  

 
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