AhrnCityPahnder

UFC wagering: RORY, WAIT.....

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Just walking around the Strip today, you can tell that there's a UFC show in town this weekend. This place is teeming with more douchebags with fauxhawks wearing Affliction t-shirts than normal.

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My thought is Karo shows. I think the same site (mmamania) has an interview with Karo from yesterday and they didn't mention anything about him being in any trouble of going. Then i read how he has an interview, maybe on UFC.com, where people say he sounds horrible in terms of really congested and just sounding sick. who knows, but my guess is Karo shows because he needs to get paid. he hasn't fought in about a year, and i don't know what other income he has but this could be the bulk of it. My guess is he shows, but if he will be completely into the fight i don't know. I look forward to seeing the weigh-ins and seeing if he is there and how he looks
Ideally, Karo is coming in knowing that after his last showing and all the reports that he has been having panic attacks etc. and "forces" himself into this fight, even if he isn't 100% physically or mentally. There's great value in Kim if that becomes the case.

Looking around, I don't think too many people are getting that much better of a price on Machida - althought Sportsbook had him at -245, but I just don't have enough in that account to make a sizeable bet on him despite the better price...besides, I'd rather deal with the real money with my local and his -280. It's been covered ad naseum in a lot of writeups on the web, but I really think Machida presents a tremendous style mismatch for Silva. The guy is just so damn patient and accurate that he'll outscore Silva if Silva tries to outwait/outstrike him. He's also got tremendous takedown defense, and if the fight does manage to go to the ground, he's got solid BJJ to lock in a sub. I also think that this is a great fight to set Machida up and put him into that upper echelon of light heavyweights and put him in contention for a title shot. He gets a "name" opponent who also has an astonishing record, yet when you consider the respective styles of each fighter, this is a fight that Machida should win more often than not, so he still gets quite a bit of credibility added to his resume with a victory.

If I didn't get so damn gunshy after that Nog fight regarding laying big vig on fights I was 100% confident in, I'd have won quite a bit more on Barnett and Fedor than I did..and I'd be looking to lay a lot more on this fight. It's just one of these feelings I have that it's a chance to make a nice sized score. Maybe Bball goes well tonight and tomorrow afternoon and allows me to justify laying more here.

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Just walking around the Strip today, you can tell that there's a UFC show in town this weekend. This place is teeming with more douchebags with fauxhawks wearing Affliction t-shirts than normal.

I remember when Affliction first started with some of the UFC guys. My fiance knows i am a big GSP fan and was going to get me a GSP-Afflictio shirt, and i told her i had no desire to ever wear an $80 t-shirt. I am so thankful she never got one for me, it is real funny seeing those crowds now adays, it is seriously getting out of control. I just hope Mask's face paint catches on more and the same guys with the faux hawks start wearing face paint.

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My thought is Karo shows. I think the same site (mmamania) has an interview with Karo from yesterday and they didn't mention anything about him being in any trouble of going. Then i read how he has an interview, maybe on UFC.com, where people say he sounds horrible in terms of really congested and just sounding sick. who knows, but my guess is Karo shows because he needs to get paid. he hasn't fought in about a year, and i don't know what other income he has but this could be the bulk of it. My guess is he shows, but if he will be completely into the fight i don't know. I look forward to seeing the weigh-ins and seeing if he is there and how he looks
Ideally, Karo is coming in knowing that after his last showing and all the reports that he has been having panic attacks etc. and "forces" himself into this fight, even if he isn't 100% physically or mentally. There's great value in Kim if that becomes the case.

Looking around, I don't think too many people are getting that much better of a price on Machida - althought Sportsbook had him at -245, but I just don't have enough in that account to make a sizeable bet on him despite the better price...besides, I'd rather deal with the real money with my local and his -280. It's been covered ad naseum in a lot of writeups on the web, but I really think Machida presents a tremendous style mismatch for Silva. The guy is just so damn patient and accurate that he'll outscore Silva if Silva tries to outwait/outstrike him. He's also got tremendous takedown defense, and if the fight does manage to go to the ground, he's got solid BJJ to lock in a sub. I also think that this is a great fight to set Machida up and put him into that upper echelon of light heavyweights and put him in contention for a title shot. He gets a "name" opponent who also has an astonishing record, yet when you consider the respective styles of each fighter, this is a fight that Machida should win more often than not, so he still gets quite a bit of credibility added to his resume with a victory.

If I didn't get so damn gunshy after that Nog fight regarding laying big vig on fights I was 100% confident in, I'd have won quite a bit more on Barnett and Fedor than I did..and I'd be looking to lay a lot more on this fight. It's just one of these feelings I have that it's a chance to make a nice sized score. Maybe Bball goes well tonight and tomorrow afternoon and allows me to justify laying more here.

I think Machida definately wins this one too. I am trying to remember all of Thiago's fights, but Machida has always come in ready. I think you are safe holding out until tomorrow to see because that Machida line won't go up a lot (at least i don't think). he isn't popular with the mainstream crowd, and they won't put much money on him. I think he definately wins.

and the weigh-ins are being shown all over ESPN, and i know on DirecTV there are 4 channels or so going to have them on at 7. I have put so much money on bball and UFC this weekend, it could really be an absolutely terrible weekend. GL to all of us

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My thought is Karo shows. I think the same site (mmamania) has an interview with Karo from yesterday and they didn't mention anything about him being in any trouble of going. Then i read how he has an interview, maybe on UFC.com, where people say he sounds horrible in terms of really congested and just sounding sick. who knows, but my guess is Karo shows because he needs to get paid. he hasn't fought in about a year, and i don't know what other income he has but this could be the bulk of it. My guess is he shows, but if he will be completely into the fight i don't know. I look forward to seeing the weigh-ins and seeing if he is there and how he looks
Ideally, Karo is coming in knowing that after his last showing and all the reports that he has been having panic attacks etc. and "forces" himself into this fight, even if he isn't 100% physically or mentally. There's great value in Kim if that becomes the case.

Looking around, I don't think too many people are getting that much better of a price on Machida - althought Sportsbook had him at -245, but I just don't have enough in that account to make a sizeable bet on him despite the better price...besides, I'd rather deal with the real money with my local and his -280. It's been covered ad naseum in a lot of writeups on the web, but I really think Machida presents a tremendous style mismatch for Silva. The guy is just so damn patient and accurate that he'll outscore Silva if Silva tries to outwait/outstrike him. He's also got tremendous takedown defense, and if the fight does manage to go to the ground, he's got solid BJJ to lock in a sub. I also think that this is a great fight to set Machida up and put him into that upper echelon of light heavyweights and put him in contention for a title shot. He gets a "name" opponent who also has an astonishing record, yet when you consider the respective styles of each fighter, this is a fight that Machida should win more often than not, so he still gets quite a bit of credibility added to his resume with a victory.

If I didn't get so damn gunshy after that Nog fight regarding laying big vig on fights I was 100% confident in, I'd have won quite a bit more on Barnett and Fedor than I did..and I'd be looking to lay a lot more on this fight. It's just one of these feelings I have that it's a chance to make a nice sized score. Maybe Bball goes well tonight and tomorrow afternoon and allows me to justify laying more here.

I think Machida definately wins this one too. I am trying to remember all of Thiago's fights, but Machida has always come in ready. I think you are safe holding out until tomorrow to see because that Machida line won't go up a lot (at least i don't think). he isn't popular with the mainstream crowd, and they won't put much money on him. I think he definately wins.

and the weigh-ins are being shown all over ESPN, and i know on DirecTV there are 4 channels or so going to have them on at 7. I have put so much money on bball and UFC this weekend, it could really be an absolutely terrible weekend. GL to all of us

:goodposting:

We'll be OK buddy, it's all about building the bankroll for GooRoo's Superbowl props!

Re: Silva's fights, I haven't seen all of them but I've heard someone mention that his most "impressive" win seemed to be against Tomas Drwal (who? lol) meanwhile, Machida's resume includes wins against BJ Penn, Rich Frankling (both in Pride obviously) and Tito Ortiz. Now, obviously, he didn't fight any of these fighters at their true peak necessarily, but have you ever seen a more impressive resume go as unnoticed publicly as his? All of this leads me to believe we are actually seeing significant value in this line at under -300 because so few people know just how good he is. If the public were aware that Machida realistically has a shot at the LH belt in the near future or if Silva didn't also sport an unblemished record, this would be getting bet up to into the 400s IMO.

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My thought is Karo shows. I think the same site (mmamania) has an interview with Karo from yesterday and they didn't mention anything about him being in any trouble of going. Then i read how he has an interview, maybe on UFC.com, where people say he sounds horrible in terms of really congested and just sounding sick. who knows, but my guess is Karo shows because he needs to get paid. he hasn't fought in about a year, and i don't know what other income he has but this could be the bulk of it. My guess is he shows, but if he will be completely into the fight i don't know. I look forward to seeing the weigh-ins and seeing if he is there and how he looks
Ideally, Karo is coming in knowing that after his last showing and all the reports that he has been having panic attacks etc. and "forces" himself into this fight, even if he isn't 100% physically or mentally. There's great value in Kim if that becomes the case.

Looking around, I don't think too many people are getting that much better of a price on Machida - althought Sportsbook had him at -245, but I just don't have enough in that account to make a sizeable bet on him despite the better price...besides, I'd rather deal with the real money with my local and his -280. It's been covered ad naseum in a lot of writeups on the web, but I really think Machida presents a tremendous style mismatch for Silva. The guy is just so damn patient and accurate that he'll outscore Silva if Silva tries to outwait/outstrike him. He's also got tremendous takedown defense, and if the fight does manage to go to the ground, he's got solid BJJ to lock in a sub. I also think that this is a great fight to set Machida up and put him into that upper echelon of light heavyweights and put him in contention for a title shot. He gets a "name" opponent who also has an astonishing record, yet when you consider the respective styles of each fighter, this is a fight that Machida should win more often than not, so he still gets quite a bit of credibility added to his resume with a victory.

If I didn't get so damn gunshy after that Nog fight regarding laying big vig on fights I was 100% confident in, I'd have won quite a bit more on Barnett and Fedor than I did..and I'd be looking to lay a lot more on this fight. It's just one of these feelings I have that it's a chance to make a nice sized score. Maybe Bball goes well tonight and tomorrow afternoon and allows me to justify laying more here.

I think Machida definately wins this one too. I am trying to remember all of Thiago's fights, but Machida has always come in ready. I think you are safe holding out until tomorrow to see because that Machida line won't go up a lot (at least i don't think). he isn't popular with the mainstream crowd, and they won't put much money on him. I think he definately wins.

and the weigh-ins are being shown all over ESPN, and i know on DirecTV there are 4 channels or so going to have them on at 7. I have put so much money on bball and UFC this weekend, it could really be an absolutely terrible weekend. GL to all of us

:football:

We'll be OK buddy, it's all about building the bankroll for GooRoo's Superbowl props!

Re: Silva's fights, I haven't seen all of them but I've heard someone mention that his most "impressive" win seemed to be against Tomas Drwal (who? lol) meanwhile, Machida's resume includes wins against BJ Penn, Rich Frankling (both in Pride obviously) and Tito Ortiz. Now, obviously, he didn't fight any of these fighters at their true peak necessarily, but have you ever seen a more impressive resume go as unnoticed publicly as his? All of this leads me to believe we are actually seeing significant value in this line at under -300 because so few people know just how good he is. If the public were aware that Machida realistically has a shot at the LH belt in the near future or if Silva didn't also sport an unblemished record, this would be getting bet up to into the 400s IMO.

thanks for the bolded above. i got a little over zealous with my picks, and realized I had more than i ought to have on tonight's bball and tomorrows UFC event. I think you are spot on with Machida, so you should be fine. I am trying to remember if he caught any real good shots against anybody in a bit, but he has avoided that. we haven't seen enough from Thiago to know what he can do, but Machida should be a safe bet Edited by modogg

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Grabbed Kim at +220. I think this fight will end up happening - can Karo really afford to back out of another fight last minute and expect not to piss off Dana White? I think if/when people start hearing the news that he isn't 100%, Kim gets bet down, so I'll take this number while I can get it.

So far, I've got Machida -280 to win 2u (will likely add more - bball was great to me today and we've got all day tomorrow) and Kim 1u to win 2.2u. I'll wait til closer to fight time to make the other plays.

ETA: Just saw pictures of Machida at weigh-ins. He came in about 2 or 3lbs heavier than he normally does, but looks a bit more cut up. Speculation on my part, but he definitely seems as though he added some functional weight will which aid in power and quickness.

Edited by sheerterror

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Grabbed Kim at +220. I think this fight will end up happening - can Karo really afford to back out of another fight last minute and expect not to piss off Dana White? I think if/when people start hearing the news that he isn't 100%, Kim gets bet down, so I'll take this number while I can get it.

So far, I've got Machida -280 to win 2u (will likely add more - bball was great to me today and we've got all day tomorrow) and Kim 1u to win 2.2u. I'll wait til closer to fight time to make the other plays.

ETA: Just saw pictures of Machida at weigh-ins. He came in about 2 or 3lbs heavier than he normally does, but looks a bit more cut up. Speculation on my part, but he definitely seems as though he added some functional weight will which aid in power and quickness.

Here is a nice little article for you concerning Machida. It does all sorts of statistical analysis and says why he is so much better than everyone is giving him credit for:

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/1/31/74304...prove-lyoto-mac

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Grabbed Kim at +220. I think this fight will end up happening - can Karo really afford to back out of another fight last minute and expect not to piss off Dana White? I think if/when people start hearing the news that he isn't 100%, Kim gets bet down, so I'll take this number while I can get it.

So far, I've got Machida -280 to win 2u (will likely add more - bball was great to me today and we've got all day tomorrow) and Kim 1u to win 2.2u. I'll wait til closer to fight time to make the other plays.

ETA: Just saw pictures of Machida at weigh-ins. He came in about 2 or 3lbs heavier than he normally does, but looks a bit more cut up. Speculation on my part, but he definitely seems as though he added some functional weight will which aid in power and quickness.

Here is a nice little article for you concerning Machida. It does all sorts of statistical analysis and says why he is so much better than everyone is giving him credit for:

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/1/31/74304...prove-lyoto-mac

Man, that is NOT helping my itch to put a year's worth of car payments on him tonight....

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Grabbed Kim at +220. I think this fight will end up happening - can Karo really afford to back out of another fight last minute and expect not to piss off Dana White? I think if/when people start hearing the news that he isn't 100%, Kim gets bet down, so I'll take this number while I can get it.

So far, I've got Machida -280 to win 2u (will likely add more - bball was great to me today and we've got all day tomorrow) and Kim 1u to win 2.2u. I'll wait til closer to fight time to make the other plays.

ETA: Just saw pictures of Machida at weigh-ins. He came in about 2 or 3lbs heavier than he normally does, but looks a bit more cut up. Speculation on my part, but he definitely seems as though he added some functional weight will which aid in power and quickness.

Here is a nice little article for you concerning Machida. It does all sorts of statistical analysis and says why he is so much better than everyone is giving him credit for:

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/1/31/74304...prove-lyoto-mac

Man, that is NOT helping my itch to put a year's worth of car payments on him tonight....
:) you're good to go. Kim is the one that has me concerned because if Karo comes in ready to fight it will be a tough one

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another guy i would love to put money on but i am out to unload on is Chris Wilson. I don't know a ton about John Howard, but i was watching some of Wilson's fights earlier today and i forgot how good he was. just in case anybody has a bunch of money laying around burning a hole in your pocket

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Grabbed Kim at +220. I think this fight will end up happening - can Karo really afford to back out of another fight last minute and expect not to piss off Dana White? I think if/when people start hearing the news that he isn't 100%, Kim gets bet down, so I'll take this number while I can get it.

So far, I've got Machida -280 to win 2u (will likely add more - bball was great to me today and we've got all day tomorrow) and Kim 1u to win 2.2u. I'll wait til closer to fight time to make the other plays.

ETA: Just saw pictures of Machida at weigh-ins. He came in about 2 or 3lbs heavier than he normally does, but looks a bit more cut up. Speculation on my part, but he definitely seems as though he added some functional weight will which aid in power and quickness.

Here is a nice little article for you concerning Machida. It does all sorts of statistical analysis and says why he is so much better than everyone is giving him credit for:

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/1/31/74304...prove-lyoto-mac

Man, that is NOT helping my itch to put a year's worth of car payments on him tonight....
:excited: you're good to go. Kim is the one that has me concerned because if Karo comes in ready to fight it will be a tough one
http://mmajunkie.com/news/13855/performify...s-st-pierre.mma

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/1/30/74255...potlight-ufc-94

I follow both of these guys picks as well as their writeups for the fights. They are both very knowledgeable and pretty successful with wagering on MMA. When they are on the same side - I usually feel confident if it's a side that I liked off the bat. Both guys are playing Kim because they feel he is actually the right play here in the fight itself (strong judo and good striking and ground and pound skills) and combining that with the value we feel we have in the line here with a possibly non-100% Karo, seems like a great play.

FWIW, the author of the first writeup is where I first heard of the possibility of Parisyan's injury. He posted it on another board a few days back and the info has obviously spread quite a bit since and the line has moved a bit because of it.

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Grabbed Kim at +220. I think this fight will end up happening - can Karo really afford to back out of another fight last minute and expect not to piss off Dana White? I think if/when people start hearing the news that he isn't 100%, Kim gets bet down, so I'll take this number while I can get it.

So far, I've got Machida -280 to win 2u (will likely add more - bball was great to me today and we've got all day tomorrow) and Kim 1u to win 2.2u. I'll wait til closer to fight time to make the other plays.

ETA: Just saw pictures of Machida at weigh-ins. He came in about 2 or 3lbs heavier than he normally does, but looks a bit more cut up. Speculation on my part, but he definitely seems as though he added some functional weight will which aid in power and quickness.

Here is a nice little article for you concerning Machida. It does all sorts of statistical analysis and says why he is so much better than everyone is giving him credit for:

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/1/31/74304...prove-lyoto-mac

Man, that is NOT helping my itch to put a year's worth of car payments on him tonight....
:confused: you're good to go. Kim is the one that has me concerned because if Karo comes in ready to fight it will be a tough one
http://mmajunkie.com/news/13855/performify...s-st-pierre.mma

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/1/30/74255...potlight-ufc-94

I follow both of these guys picks as well as their writeups for the fights. They are both very knowledgeable and pretty successful with wagering on MMA. When they are on the same side - I usually feel confident if it's a side that I liked off the bat. Both guys are playing Kim because they feel he is actually the right play here in the fight itself (strong judo and good striking and ground and pound skills) and combining that with the value we feel we have in the line here with a possibly non-100% Karo, seems like a great play.

FWIW, the author of the first writeup is where I first heard of the possibility of Parisyan's injury. He posted it on another board a few days back and the info has obviously spread quite a bit since and the line has moved a bit because of it.

Yeah, i've been following Performity for a long time as well. He had a bad run about 10-15 UFC shows ago and i stopped paying attn. to his picks, but i think that was the same time all of the crazy upsets were happening each card. I've heard the same thing about guys picking Kim before the news of Karo's injury, so that is why i unloaded on him. But i do feel better seeing the consensus with picking Kim

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another guy i would love to put money on but i am out to unload on is Chris Wilson. I don't know a ton about John Howard, but i was watching some of Wilson's fights earlier today and i forgot how good he was. just in case anybody has a bunch of money laying around burning a hole in your pocket

Chris Wilson is a bad mofo. Dude even gave Jon Fitch a rough time in their fight. He's probably the surest bet on the whole card.

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Added parlay:TavaresDiazDonginatorMachidaPays +1350

wow, nice. Where did you get a parlay with these guys? It wasn't sportsbook was it? i love the idea of taking a parlay with some of these guys. Definately a good way to do it.

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Grabbed Kim at +220. I think this fight will end up happening - can Karo really afford to back out of another fight last minute and expect not to piss off Dana White? I think if/when people start hearing the news that he isn't 100%, Kim gets bet down, so I'll take this number while I can get it.

So far, I've got Machida -280 to win 2u (will likely add more - bball was great to me today and we've got all day tomorrow) and Kim 1u to win 2.2u. I'll wait til closer to fight time to make the other plays.

ETA: Just saw pictures of Machida at weigh-ins. He came in about 2 or 3lbs heavier than he normally does, but looks a bit more cut up. Speculation on my part, but he definitely seems as though he added some functional weight will which aid in power and quickness.

Here is a nice little article for you concerning Machida. It does all sorts of statistical analysis and says why he is so much better than everyone is giving him credit for:

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/1/31/74304...prove-lyoto-mac

Man, that is NOT helping my itch to put a year's worth of car payments on him tonight....
:confused: you're good to go. Kim is the one that has me concerned because if Karo comes in ready to fight it will be a tough one
http://mmajunkie.com/news/13855/performify...s-st-pierre.mma

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/1/30/74255...potlight-ufc-94

I follow both of these guys picks as well as their writeups for the fights. They are both very knowledgeable and pretty successful with wagering on MMA. When they are on the same side - I usually feel confident if it's a side that I liked off the bat. Both guys are playing Kim because they feel he is actually the right play here in the fight itself (strong judo and good striking and ground and pound skills) and combining that with the value we feel we have in the line here with a possibly non-100% Karo, seems like a great play.

FWIW, the author of the first writeup is where I first heard of the possibility of Parisyan's injury. He posted it on another board a few days back and the info has obviously spread quite a bit since and the line has moved a bit because of it.

Yeah, i've been following Performity for a long time as well. He had a bad run about 10-15 UFC shows ago and i stopped paying attn. to his picks, but i think that was the same time all of the crazy upsets were happening each card. I've heard the same thing about guys picking Kim before the news of Karo's injury, so that is why i unloaded on him. But i do feel better seeing the consensus with picking Kim
In my original predictions for the card a week ago, I figured that the more experienced Karo would probably run over Kim, who looked in trouble even against the mediocre Matt Brown. Still, I'm thinking Kim corrected the problems he had with his gas tank, while Karo looked horribly soft at the weigh-in and everyone is seemingly concerned over his panic attacks and mental state. Looks more and more like Kim is a great bet.

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Added parlay:TavaresDiazDonginatorMachidaPays +1350

wow, nice. Where did you get a parlay with these guys? It wasn't sportsbook was it? i love the idea of taking a parlay with some of these guys. Definately a good way to do it.
Actually - my local accepts them. I bet through a site that has options for just about everything you can find on a regular online book, but it's all on credit then we meet 1x/week to collect or pay.

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Added parlay:TavaresDiazDonginatorMachidaPays +1350

wow, nice. Where did you get a parlay with these guys? It wasn't sportsbook was it? i love the idea of taking a parlay with some of these guys. Definately a good way to do it.
Actually - my local accepts them. I bet through a site that has options for just about everything you can find on a regular online book, but it's all on credit then we meet 1x/week to collect or pay.
thanks. A buddy of mine tried connecting me with some deal like that, but i was getting over my compulsive gambling and wanted to avoid it. Of course now i found these threads and am in pretty deep, but as long as we're winning all is good. i imagine that that system is real sweet for the NBA props and for options like the parlay you got here so maybe i should look back into it. as for tonight, Not starting off too well here with that bum who plays for San Diego Toreros, but the night is young Edited by modogg

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Yuck, Kim looks terrible, thank God Karo certainly isn't 100%. I can't believe how much i put on Kim :X Between this and bball, it is looking very, very ugly

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[in my original predictions for the card a week ago, I figured that the more experienced Karo would probably run over Kim, who looked in trouble even against the mediocre Matt Brown. Still, I'm thinking Kim corrected the problems he had with his gas tank, while Karo looked horribly soft at the weigh-in and everyone is seemingly concerned over his panic attacks and mental state. Looks more and more like Kim is a great bet.

thanks man, watching Karo get in the ring i thought so too. I jsut can't believe how Kim did not take more advantage of that fight though. I thought Kim should have won, but in all honesty, neither of them deserved to win. I can't believe how much money i had put on Kim which was just dumb in the first place, but i can't believe how crappy Kim was too.

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So the UFC Fight night is this weekend coming up. here are some preliminary lines, andybody have any opinions:

Kurt Pellegrino -180

22:00 ET Rob Emerson +150

UFC - Ultimate Fight Night - Lightweight Matchup

2/7/09 515 Joe Lauzon -185

22:00 ET Jeremy Stephens +155

UFC - Ultimate Fight Night - Middleweight Matchup

2/7/09 520 Dan Miller -170

22:00 ET Jake Rosholt +140

UFC - Ultimate Fight Night - Heavyweight Matchup

2/7/09 525 Cain Velasquez -600

21:00 ET Denis Stojnic +400

UFC - Ultimate Fight Night - Lightweight Matchup

2/7/09 530 Mac Danzig -115

21:00 ET Josh Neer -115

UFC - Ultimate Fight Night - Welterweight Matchup

2/7/09 535 Matt Riddle -120

21:00 ET Steve Bruno -110

i think i got some money on Mac Danzig and Kurt Pellegrino, and they should be able to win. Anybody have any opinions?

and congrats to you guys who put money on Machida? I think he'll be the champion soon, and he looked awesome

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So the UFC Fight night is this weekend coming up. here are some preliminary lines, andybody have any opinions:Kurt Pellegrino -180 22:00 ET Rob Emerson +150 UFC - Ultimate Fight Night - Lightweight Matchup 2/7/09 515 Joe Lauzon -185 22:00 ET Jeremy Stephens +155 UFC - Ultimate Fight Night - Middleweight Matchup 2/7/09 520 Dan Miller -170 22:00 ET Jake Rosholt +140 UFC - Ultimate Fight Night - Heavyweight Matchup 2/7/09 525 Cain Velasquez -600 21:00 ET Denis Stojnic +400 UFC - Ultimate Fight Night - Lightweight Matchup 2/7/09 530 Mac Danzig -115 21:00 ET Josh Neer -115 UFC - Ultimate Fight Night - Welterweight Matchup 2/7/09 535 Matt Riddle -120 21:00 ET Steve Bruno -110 i think i got some money on Mac Danzig and Kurt Pellegrino, and they should be able to win. Anybody have any opinions?and congrats to you guys who put money on Machida? I think he'll be the champion soon, and he looked awesome

Heh, sorry if I cost ya money last time on Kim, man. Second time in a row that he comes out on fire in the first round, then wilts in the following two. Really frustrating.At any rate, Pellegrino's a safe bet. The other one I really like is Rosholt at +140. Dude is pretty green in MMA terms, but I think it's safe to say that, Lindland aside, he's the best pure wrestler in the division. You can tell from his last fight that he's still pretty one-dimensional, but he's already good enough to take his opponents down and control them via sheer strength and wrestling, and has pretty decent ground 'n' pound. Miller's a tough opponent because he's very versatile and has sharp jiu-jitsu (I worry about a guillotine as Rosholt shoots in, mostly), but Rosholt +140 is still a very attractive bet to me. Hope he pulls through.

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So the UFC Fight night is this weekend coming up. here are some preliminary lines, andybody have any opinions:Kurt Pellegrino -180 22:00 ET Rob Emerson +150 UFC - Ultimate Fight Night - Lightweight Matchup 2/7/09 515 Joe Lauzon -185 22:00 ET Jeremy Stephens +155 UFC - Ultimate Fight Night - Middleweight Matchup 2/7/09 520 Dan Miller -170 22:00 ET Jake Rosholt +140 UFC - Ultimate Fight Night - Heavyweight Matchup 2/7/09 525 Cain Velasquez -600 21:00 ET Denis Stojnic +400 UFC - Ultimate Fight Night - Lightweight Matchup 2/7/09 530 Mac Danzig -115 21:00 ET Josh Neer -115 UFC - Ultimate Fight Night - Welterweight Matchup 2/7/09 535 Matt Riddle -120 21:00 ET Steve Bruno -110 i think i got some money on Mac Danzig and Kurt Pellegrino, and they should be able to win. Anybody have any opinions?and congrats to you guys who put money on Machida? I think he'll be the champion soon, and he looked awesome

Heh, sorry if I cost ya money last time on Kim, man. Second time in a row that he comes out on fire in the first round, then wilts in the following two. Really frustrating.At any rate, Pellegrino's a safe bet. The other one I really like is Rosholt at +140. Dude is pretty green in MMA terms, but I think it's safe to say that, Lindland aside, he's the best pure wrestler in the division. You can tell from his last fight that he's still pretty one-dimensional, but he's already good enough to take his opponents down and control them via sheer strength and wrestling, and has pretty decent ground 'n' pound. Miller's a tough opponent because he's very versatile and has sharp jiu-jitsu (I worry about a guillotine as Rosholt shoots in, mostly), but Rosholt +140 is still a very attractive bet to me. Hope he pulls through.
thanks, but i cost myself on Kim. I just got too excited with hearing how bad off Karo was (which seems to be pretty accurate), but Kim was just God awful as well. You win some you lose some. I like Rosholt too, and put some money on him. I have to think he has trained to get ready for a guillotine, and i think Dan is very much like his brother Cole in their jujitsu, just lengthy and more dangerous that way, rather than a Joe Stevenson with his guiilotine. Rosholt is a good call. so Abrants you sound knowledgeable with all of this. I really like Mac Danzig and Joe Lauzon. Stevenson is at a higher cost, but hermes jujitsu outweighs Stevens 10 fold, and Jeremy has a ton of heart and some dangerous stand-up, but Lauzon has faced much tougher oppopnents. I actually think the comparison is similar to Neer-Danzig, with Neer obviously facing tougher opponents then Stevens and much more experience, but i think Mac can hold his own. Hard with these 2 because i don't really know who they have been training with and everything to prepare for this fight, i just think Mac Danzig has enough in his arsenal to win. i would love to hear your thoughts on these 2

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so Abrants you sound knowledgeable with all of this. I really like Mac Danzig and Joe Lauzon. Stevenson is at a higher cost, but hermes jujitsu outweighs Stevens 10 fold, and Jeremy has a ton of heart and some dangerous stand-up, but Lauzon has faced much tougher oppopnents. I actually think the comparison is similar to Neer-Danzig, with Neer obviously facing tougher opponents then Stevens and much more experience, but i think Mac can hold his own. Hard with these 2 because i don't really know who they have been training with and everything to prepare for this fight, i just think Mac Danzig has enough in his arsenal to win. i would love to hear your thoughts on these 2

I think Stephens/Lauzon match up really well, as they have different strengths. Lauzon has a very clear edge in terms of sharp technique, especially on the ground, while Stephens has great knockout power for a lightweight, as well as (exactly like you said) a ton of heart. If Stephens had been training for this fight all along, it might've been a tougher call. As it is though, Stephens was training for a fight further down in early April and took the fight on short notice to replace his injured teammate Hermes Franca. That might affect his overall preparation and cardio. Although Stephens will always have a shot in a striking war, I gotta take Lauzon in this one, likely by submission.Neer/Danzig is a really tough call, and the betting line reflects it. Both are really well-rounded, but don't have anything in their game that really just overwhelm their opponents. They're fairly even in the standup, although Neer's probably a bit more dangerous there. I'd also guess he's a slightly more powerful wrestler, so he should be able to take it to the ground if things aren't going his way. Danzig's slicker on the ground, but if Nate Diaz couldn't finish Neer, I'm not sure if Danzig will. I guess the bottom line for me is that I don't know if Danzig can finish Neer, and think Neer can probably control the fight to get a decision. Could go either way, but I'm taking Neer on this one. :boxing: Edited by Abrantes

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Best dog odds I feel are on Luigi Fioravanti

he's anywhere from +225 to +291 depending on your book

either way, I love Anthony johnson, and his destruction of Kevin Burns last time out is definitely fresh in bettors memories

That said, Fioravanti has a ton of experience, and Johnson ofte comes out flying and tires

I think Fioravanti can take this into the 2nd and 3rd and either catch Johnson in a sub or decision him

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Best dog odds I feel are on Luigi Fioravantihe's anywhere from +225 to +291 depending on your bookeither way, I love Anthony johnson, and his destruction of Kevin Burns last time out is definitely fresh in bettors memoriesThat said, Fioravanti has a ton of experience, and Johnson ofte comes out flying and tiresI think Fioravanti can take this into the 2nd and 3rd and either catch Johnson in a sub or decision him

wow, bold statement there, but I do think Luigi has good value. I think Anthony Johnson wins the fight, but you are right with Luigi getting those numbers it isn't a terrible call taking a chance with him. I keep thinking back to his fight with Leban, but i just looked it up on fight finder and didn't realize that was 2 years ago. i agree you get good value here, but i love Anthony Johnson a lot too and think he'll win

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Best dog odds I feel are on Luigi Fioravantihe's anywhere from +225 to +291 depending on your bookeither way, I love Anthony johnson, and his destruction of Kevin Burns last time out is definitely fresh in bettors memoriesThat said, Fioravanti has a ton of experience, and Johnson ofte comes out flying and tiresI think Fioravanti can take this into the 2nd and 3rd and either catch Johnson in a sub or decision him

wow, bold statement there, but I do think Luigi has good value. I think Anthony Johnson wins the fight, but you are right with Luigi getting those numbers it isn't a terrible call taking a chance with him. I keep thinking back to his fight with Leban, but i just looked it up on fight finder and didn't realize that was 2 years ago. i agree you get good value here, but i love Anthony Johnson a lot too and think he'll win
I like Johnson better also, and think there's a good chance he will win, but from a strict odds perspective I feel this bet on Luigi is +EV, especially the higher you can get itif you can get it at +291 (which is what it is at pinnacle) i think there is great value here

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so Abrants you sound knowledgeable with all of this. I really like Mac Danzig and Joe Lauzon. Stevenson is at a higher cost, but hermes jujitsu outweighs Stevens 10 fold, and Jeremy has a ton of heart and some dangerous stand-up, but Lauzon has faced much tougher oppopnents. I actually think the comparison is similar to Neer-Danzig, with Neer obviously facing tougher opponents then Stevens and much more experience, but i think Mac can hold his own. Hard with these 2 because i don't really know who they have been training with and everything to prepare for this fight, i just think Mac Danzig has enough in his arsenal to win. i would love to hear your thoughts on these 2

I think Stephens/Lauzon match up really well, as they have different strengths. Lauzon has a very clear edge in terms of sharp technique, especially on the ground, while Stephens has great knockout power for a lightweight, as well as (exactly like you said) a ton of heart. If Stephens had been training for this fight all along, it might've been a tougher call. As it is though, Stephens was training for a fight further down in early April and took the fight on short notice to replace his injured teammate Hermes Franca. That might affect his overall preparation and cardio. Although Stephens will always have a shot in a striking war, I gotta take Lauzon in this one, likely by submission.Neer/Danzig is a really tough call, and the betting line reflects it. Both are really well-rounded, but don't have anything in their game that really just overwhelm their opponents. They're fairly even in the standup, although Neer's probably a bit more dangerous there. I'd also guess he's a slightly more powerful wrestler, so he should be able to take it to the ground if things aren't going his way. Danzig's slicker on the ground, but if Nate Diaz couldn't finish Neer, I'm not sure if Danzig will. I guess the bottom line for me is that I don't know if Danzig can finish Neer, and think Neer can probably control the fight to get a decision. Could go either way, but I'm taking Neer on this one. :boxing:
sounds good, thanks. I grabbed Lauzon and Danzig awhile ago when the lines went first up. I am hoping that both Stevens and Neer barely making weight drains them quite a bit and gets them to fatigue early tomorrow. Lauzon should be alright, but i am not as confident in Danzig as i was when i first bet him. Neer will have a size advantage. My thought is that Danzig has crisper striking and better technique, and hopefuly can outscore Neer on the scorecard. looking at his latest fights, his win over Din Thomas makes me a bit nervous. i don't remember seeing that fight, but Din certainly is a quality opponent. Well, the bets are already in, so i am hoping they come through.

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Best dog odds I feel are on Luigi Fioravantihe's anywhere from +225 to +291 depending on your bookeither way, I love Anthony johnson, and his destruction of Kevin Burns last time out is definitely fresh in bettors memoriesThat said, Fioravanti has a ton of experience, and Johnson ofte comes out flying and tiresI think Fioravanti can take this into the 2nd and 3rd and either catch Johnson in a sub or decision him

wow, bold statement there, but I do think Luigi has good value. I think Anthony Johnson wins the fight, but you are right with Luigi getting those numbers it isn't a terrible call taking a chance with him. I keep thinking back to his fight with Leban, but i just looked it up on fight finder and didn't realize that was 2 years ago. i agree you get good value here, but i love Anthony Johnson a lot too and think he'll win
I like Johnson better also, and think there's a good chance he will win, but from a strict odds perspective I feel this bet on Luigi is +EV, especially the higher you can get itif you can get it at +291 (which is what it is at pinnacle) i think there is great value here
I am also tempted to take a stab at Denis Stojnic. I have been reading up on him and didn't realize he trains with Mousasi, Ernesto Hoost and Gilbert Yvel. Cain Valesquez is a beast, but i know he said he doesn't know much about Denis, and he could come in and surprise. I think Cain wins, but i think Stojnic should be closer to +250 or +300, not at +425. i probably won't take it, but he has a puncher's chance.

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I like Danzig over Neer FWIW

Just think he's better in every phase of the game

Also, FWIW, Neer needed an extra hour to cut the weight necessary

A tough cut like that could really be a negative

Also would never lay the odds he's getting on Velazquez, but he should romp

This Stojic dude looks like a tomato can (albeit a very large one)

http://mmaaddicts.com/dann/ufn17/denis-stojnic-sm.jpg

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I like Danzig over Neer FWIW

Just think he's better in every phase of the game

Also, FWIW, Neer needed an extra hour to cut the weight necessary

A tough cut like that could really be a negative

Also would never lay the odds he's getting on Velazquez, but he should romp

This Stojic dude looks like a tomato can (albeit a very large one)

http://mmaaddicts.com/dann/ufn17/denis-stojnic-sm.jpg

ugh, that picture certainly convinced me to not take any chances at all on Stojnic. Man that was convincing. i think you nailed it that he is most likely there to sell Cain to the larger audience and is a showcase fight for him

Quick Edit here: not to say i am in any better shape at all than Stojnic. I am guessing i would last about 15 seconds before he would knock me out, but i think Cain offers a better challenge to him than i would.

Edited by modogg

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With how my day has gone, I don't trust anything I like at this point.

Was considering Rosholt at +140 but got there to late to play it.

Really thinking of a bridgejump play on Velasquez. I think your assessment from the other thread is spot on modogg, the UFC is trying to get him facetime right now with a soupcan so they can start putting him on some big PPVs in hopes that he is the next elite heavyweight. Moved to -800 which kind of sucks so I don't know what I'm going to do at the moment.

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The other one I really like is Rosholt at +140. Dude is pretty green in MMA terms, but I think it's safe to say that, Lindland aside, he's the best pure wrestler in the division. You can tell from his last fight that he's still pretty one-dimensional, but he's already good enough to take his opponents down and control them via sheer strength and wrestling, and has pretty decent ground 'n' pound. Miller's a tough opponent because he's very versatile and has sharp jiu-jitsu (I worry about a guillotine as Rosholt shoots in, mostly), but Rosholt +140 is still a very attractive bet to me. Hope he pulls through.

Dan Miller def. Jake Rosholt by submission (guillotine choke) at 1:03, R1

:unsure::thumbup:

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The other one I really like is Rosholt at +140. Dude is pretty green in MMA terms, but I think it's safe to say that, Lindland aside, he's the best pure wrestler in the division. You can tell from his last fight that he's still pretty one-dimensional, but he's already good enough to take his opponents down and control them via sheer strength and wrestling, and has pretty decent ground 'n' pound. Miller's a tough opponent because he's very versatile and has sharp jiu-jitsu (I worry about a guillotine as Rosholt shoots in, mostly), but Rosholt +140 is still a very attractive bet to me. Hope he pulls through.

Dan Miller def. Jake Rosholt by submission (guillotine choke) at 1:03, R1

:doh::popcorn:

geeez. i ended up reading a couple of things on various MMA websites and opted not to take Rosholt. Good prediction with the guillotine though. I have been hearing that MMA betting has really picked up and they are beginning to add prop bets like 'chances to end in a guillotine choke' and stuff. Nice call though

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I'm on this velasquez guy, the greek has him at -900 and I have some leftover money at skybook who has him at -650, seems like a lot of value there so I jumped on it. I know nothing about this sport but found a live feed at mmahacks.com to watch it

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I'm on this velasquez guy, the greek has him at -900 and I have some leftover money at skybook who has him at -650, seems like a lot of value there so I jumped on it. I know nothing about this sport but found a live feed at mmahacks.com to watch it

The card's on Spike TV.

I'm on Velasquez too. This should be over quickly.

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I'm on this velasquez guy, the greek has him at -900 and I have some leftover money at skybook who has him at -650, seems like a lot of value there so I jumped on it. I know nothing about this sport but found a live feed at mmahacks.com to watch it

The card's on Spike TV.

I'm on Velasquez too. This should be over quickly.

Awesome! Thanks!

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