Official Beat Writer Roster Prediction PostWe have just less than three weeks until Opening Day, and those three weeks could do much to alter, or even annihilate, this prediction. During the next three weeks, for instance, we'll know if the Nationals thin out the first base-outfield crowd by trading Nick Johnson, Josh Willingham, etc. We'll know if Shawn Hill is facing opposing hitters, or facing another Dr. James Andrews appointment. We'll know if the Nats sign another arm for the bullpen.But enough caveats. Here's your Official Beat Writer Roster Prediction Post.Catchers (2)Jesus FloresWil NievesComment: This position is more clear-cut than any other, and that's because both players listed above performed at or above expectations last year. Flores will begin his second year as the full-time catcher; expect 450-550 at bats and a lot of progress. Nieves got his chance last year because of some injuries. He calls a decent game and hits just enough to stick around, probably fighting off non-roster signee Javier Valentin. Only if Flores' elbow injury becomes a lingering problem does Valentin crack the roster.Infielders (6)Nick JohnsonAnderson HernandezCristian GuzmanRyan ZimmermanWillie HarrisRonnie BelliardComment: Johnson, if healthy, will get most of the at bats at first base. Hernandez starts at second; Acta really likes the guy, but if he falters -- and remember, his track record before coming to DC was nonexistent -- then Ronnie Belliard might get yet another chance to show his value. Even as a bench player, Belliard is important here for his versatility. Harris, too. (And because of the outfield depth, he'll be seeing more time as an infielder this year.) The real problem with this list is the lack of an ideal shortstop behind Guzman. Granted, the Nats expect CG to play almost every day -- and here, he'll have to, because neither Harris nor Belliard is a good fit at shortstop. Anderson Hernandez has a little SS experience, though, and can fill in every so often. Alberto Gonzalez has plenty of potential, but he's better off getting at bats every day with Class AAA Syracuse.Some of the names you don't see: Pete Orr, Kory Casto and Dmitri Young.Outfielders (5)Adam DunnLastings MilledgeElijah DukesJosh WillinghamAustin KearnsComment: Whew, what a pile-up. For now, let's assume Dunn plays three out of four games in LF and plays one of four days at 1B. That reduces the wear on Johnson at first base, and opens plenty of at bats for a fourth outfielder. And indeed, on a good team, somebody like Josh Willingham represents an ideal fourth outfielder. Those players can still get 300-350 at bats per year -- and you can be sure that injuries, at some point, will give somebody in this position regular playing time. Remember, Milledge was on the DL last year for about a month. Dukes had three separate trips to the DL.The real dilemma here is Kearns. Unless he somehow gets at bats and raises his value, he's tough to trade. (Unless Jim Bowden gets another GM job.) Maybe another trade or an injury opens the door for him to play more regularly, but until then, he's an expensive bench player. I know the Nationals like his reliability in RF and his clubhouse presence, and they're hoping his work with Rick Eckstein can help him return to old form. But Milledge and Dukes have to play most days in CF and RF.The crop of outfielders just behind this current group are promising. Roger Bernadina and Justin Maxwell have had fine springs, but they will be in Syracuse. As for Wily Mo Pena? I can't imagine a scenario where he's worth keeping on the team. His value as a bench player is nil.Starting pitchers (5)John LannanScott OlsenDaniel CabreraJordan ZimmermannShawn HillComment: The first three are clear-cut. The bigger decisions come with the last two spots. If Hill is healthy -- and I'm writing this sentence for the 43rd time this spring -- he'll be in the rotation. His track record says that won't happen, but if you can't be optimistic about a pitcher's health in March, you're either heartless or working as a scheduling secretary at the Alabama Sports Medicine Center. Yeah, the Nats are saying Hill's health is a bonus, but without it, their rotation could have two 22-year-olds. Jordan Zimmermann is 22. Same with Collin Balester. Shairon Martis turns 22 at the end of March.In terms of readiness to pitch in the big leagues, I'd rank the contenders thusly: Zimmermann, Martis, Balester. The Nats might consider dispatching Zimmermann to Syracuse for the first couple weeks of the season, just to delay the start of his arbitration clock, and there's a little logic to that. But this spring, Balester has not looked ready. He's still too wild and mistake-prone. Martis looks more polished, good at keeping the ball low, but still, he had a 5.66 ERA in his cup-o-joe last September. Both Martis and Balester are better off learning and growing at Syracuse. By the end of the year, the Nats could have one of the youngest, most intriguing rotations in baseball. Zimmermann, for sure, will be there by then. Same with Stephen Strasburg, provided Scott Boras allows it and the Lerners facilitate it.Relief pitchers (7)Joel HanrahanSaul RiveraJason BergmannJulian TavarezGarrett MockMike HinckleySteven ShellComment: Anybody got some darts, here? Really, I'm just aiming for the target and hoping to hit ... something. Maybe I'm relying too much on the brief success that some of these guys had late last year, because really, Shell and Hinckley haven't given the Nats much reason to make this team. I am listing Hinckley here for one reason alone: he's a lefty. The team needs a lefty. (Do we already miss Charlie Manning?) Mock will be a serviceable arm, and Bergmann might surprise some people in his new, full-time role. Tavarez is a proven commodity, and that alone gives him a boost. Rivera and Hanrahan are locks.
No reason was given? The reason is pretty obvious, no?
