MT,
I've heard from several Bolts fans that Rivers regressed this season. You don't agree? Just curious.
I don't know that Rivers played worse in 2007 than in 2006, but his stats regressed for sure.I think Rivers benefited from the excellent OL play last year, and was hurt by the inconsistent OL play this year. For much of 2007, he didn't have the same confidence as he did in 2006, and it affected his mechanics. He doesn't throw his passes the same way every time. He is behind where he should be in terms of his footwork and mechanics due to his injured foot last season. Those kinds of fundamentals are generally worked on during the offseason, not during game week. Rivers was unable to practice this offseason, as his foot injury bothered him all the way up until the time of training camp (and some rumors are that it continued to bother him during the season).
When Rivers can step up into the pocket confidently, he throws with good zip and excellent accuracy. With the OL problems this season, he's faced pressure this year that he hadn't ever had to adjust to last year. The left side of the OL was consistently amazing last year. At times this season it has been awful. As a result, he got into the habit of throwing off his back foot too much this year (sometimes even when there was protection) instead of stepping into the pocket and firing away. Rivers' mechanical problems only occur when he is taken out of his comfort zone, and that's not a problem he had to deal with in 2006.
(When I talk about his "mechanical problems" I am not talking about his delivery. He has an unorthodox throwing motion, but it works for him. It is kind of a cross between Dan Marino and Bernie Kosar, and it is the source of his quick release, so I wouldn't try to change that. Instead, I am talking about his footwork and his tendency to hold the ball too low instead of keeping it tight to his chest. When he is playing well, he holds the ball high and steps into his throws. When he struggles with his accuracy, he often has sloppy footwork and also drops the ball down too low, which lengthens his throwing motion. He does this mostly when he has to move around in the pocket.)
The other change from 2006 to 2007 is that the team had much less success running on first downs this season. As a result, Rivers was in third-and-long situations more often, which makes the passing game harder.
Overall, I'm not so sure that the 2006 Philip Rivers would have done any better under 2007's circumstances than the 2007 Philip Rivers did. So saying that Rivers "regressed" may not quite be accurate. I think saying that he was "exposed" is probably closer to the mark, as his weaknesses were kept hidden better last season when the OL was so much more consistent.
Either way, I think he's a very good QB already, and will continue to get better with more offseason tutoring from (QB coach) Ramsdell.