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QB Philip Rivers, RET (12 Viewers)

Capella said:
I don’t know. Fantasy football is stupid and has nothing to do with this. 
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the hottest of takes. Except I was making an analogy, so it had everything to do with this. 

Kind of a rude way to engage in discussion, btw. 

The simple fact is that TB will continue to be terrible as long as they invest in dead-enders like Rivers instead of developing young talent like Winston. It’s possible Winston had his worst turnover-laden season because he has a new aggressive coach who uses an air raid offense. That is the only real change from last season. 

As for your take on Winston’s ability, last I checked, dude had a legitimate shot at the single season yardage record this year. 

That’s real football, btw, not “stupid” fantasy football.

You do know this is a stupid FF site, right? 
 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
the hottest of takes. Except I was making an analogy, so it had everything to do with this. 

Kind of a rude way to engage in discussion, btw. 

The simple fact is that TB will continue to be terrible as long as they invest in dead-enders like Rivers instead of developing young talent like Winston. It’s possible Winston had his worst turnover-laden season because he has a new aggressive coach who uses an air raid offense. That is the only real change from last season. 

As for your take on Winston’s ability, last I checked, dude had a legitimate shot at the single season yardage record this year. 

That’s real football, btw, not “stupid” fantasy football.

You do know this is a stupid FF site, right? 
 
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Calling FF stupid isn’t rude, it wasn’t a personal attack on you unless you take fantasy football that seriously. 
 

Yes I know the website. I mainly post in the FFA but saw a rivers thread here and made the mistake of opening it. 
 

Maybe Winston had the worst turnover season in 20 years because of the reasons you stated or more likely because that’s who he is. After all, he got benched for turnovers literally the year before with another coach but sure, blame Arians. 

 
rockaction said:
Wow. Jameis, for all his faults, and your WRs were your team. Who you bringing in?

Your defense was #5 DVOA, but it cost them the first half of the year in pass defense. 

Your kicker cost you 2-3 games this year along with Jameis, if we're cutting teeth on this. 
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Yes the kicker sucked too. It’s not all on Jameis but a lot of it was. 
 

I have no idea who they bring in. It’ll probably be another loser. But paying Jameis 25M and crippling the rest of your team is a non-starter. Now if they can get him for 13-15M? Then I’m game. Unlikely that happens though. 

 
Capella said:
Yes the kicker sucked too. It’s not all on Jameis but a lot of it was. 
I have no idea who they bring in. It’ll probably be another loser. But paying Jameis 25M and crippling the rest of your team is a non-starter. Now if they can get him for 13-15M? Then I’m game. Unlikely that happens though. 
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This really might be so. I'll take a homer's point of view with a little more weight than usual. You seem to know your stuff -- passions aside -- about the Bucs.

As far as Jameis goes, your frustration as a homer might be aggravated or just dead-on. I can't tell which and don't make the big bucks to do so, so I'll not argue but rather, wait.  I think given the market, he should split his expectations with that of the club's and sign for $19-21 M or so, which is really a reasonable starting QB salary given the market and starts to correct the market from its ridiculously inflated trend that we know it to be. 

 
Capella said:
17-20 for 1-2 years. I guess they could do one year on Jameis but most of what I read was 3-4 years. 
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I think Rivers will be looking for more than that but at that price I guess he’d be worth the risk - while they try and draft and develop a young guy.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I think Rivers will be looking for more than that but at that price I guess he’d be worth the risk - while they try and draft and develop a young guy.
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Yea I mean I really have no idea. I was working under the impression Rivers would be quite a bit cheaper. At 20-25 then yea just give me Jameis. 

 
Capella said:
17-20 for 1-2 years. I guess they could do one year on Jameis but most of what I read was 3-4 years. 
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So again, you’d rather have Rivers for $20M to be the last stop for a dead-ender than give Winston $25M to see if he can develop into a future franchise QB? 

Rivers seems like a huge waste of $ to me. 

If Bucs management agrees with that, then that’s why they’ll continue to suck.

Further, bringing in a HC who specializes in developing QBs was also a waste of time & $. If Rivers is the Bucs plan, they don’t need Ariens. 

finally I’m not sure where you’re getting $25m for Winston when the Bucs can franchise tag him. Before the Rivers rumor  that was thought to be the plan. 
:shrug:  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
So again, you’d rather have Rivers for $20M to be the last stop for a dead-ender than give Winston $25M to see if he can develop into a future franchise QB? 

Rivers seems like a huge waste of $ to me. 

If Bucs management agrees with that, then that’s why they’ll continue to suck.

Further, bringing in a HC who specializes in developing QBs was also a waste of time & $. If Rivers is the Bucs plan, they don’t need Ariens. 

finally I’m not sure where you’re getting $25m for Winston when the Bucs can franchise tag him. Before the Rivers rumor  that was thought to be the plan. 
:shrug:  
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I couldn't disagree more with this. Winston has had 5 years, and he's the exact same QB he was day 1 of his rookie season. Still missing the same reads, and still forcing the same throws. He is certainly capable of high-end play(I'd gladly take him in Chicago) but he's not a future franchise QB, its never happening.

Rivers has been a top notch QB in the years leading to 2019. There were certainly times last year, where he looked like he'd stopped caring, but even then, he was still better than Winston. Tampa isn't that far off. They had a bunch of unfortunate losses, as has been detailed a little higher on the page. I also feel like some of Arians concepts may have been a bit too complex for Winston, whether that is an experience issue, or not, its not an issue I see Rivers having. 

Its also entirely possible Rivers is reinvigorated being on a new team, and actually having home games.

I think the biggest part I disagree with, and many have disagreed, is that Rivers is washed up. There is zero evidence to support that. He went from back to back high end seasons, to a down year, where he was still above average. Even Rivers down 2019 is as good as than anything Winston has ever done.

 
travdogg said:
I couldn't disagree more with this. Winston has had 5 years, and he's the exact same QB he was day 1 of his rookie season. Still missing the same reads, and still forcing the same throws. He is certainly capable of high-end play(I'd gladly take him in Chicago) but he's not a future franchise QB, its never happening.

Rivers has been a top notch QB in the years leading to 2019. There were certainly times last year, where he looked like he'd stopped caring, but even then, he was still better than Winston. Tampa isn't that far off. They had a bunch of unfortunate losses, as has been detailed a little higher on the page. I also feel like some of Arians concepts may have been a bit too complex for Winston, whether that is an experience issue, or not, its not an issue I see Rivers having. 

Its also entirely possible Rivers is reinvigorated being on a new team, and actually having home games.

I think the biggest part I disagree with, and many have disagreed, is that Rivers is washed up. There is zero evidence to support that. He went from back to back high end seasons, to a down year, where he was still above average. Even Rivers down 2019 is as good as than anything Winston has ever done.
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Rivers sure looked washed up to me. But I was just watching him play, so... :shrug:  

it was his reads, his arm strength & his mobility (which he never really had much of to begin with) - he looked shaky in the pocket, made bad throws, lacked touch, and couldn’t get the ball deep. His numbers would have looked even worse without the 6,000 check-downs to Eck & Gordon. 

I don’t see any scenario where Rivers is “revitalized” short of finding the fountain of youth.

and I’ve long been a Rivers fan. He helped me to a title one season. I have nothing against Rivers other than the fact that he fell off the same cliff that a lot of aging QBs fall off of. 

Winston has had 5 years with different OCs, coaches & for a while a lack of depth of weapons. TB still didn’t have a consistent run game & their OL was middle of the road.  

as I understood it, they brought in Arians to coach up Winston. I expected growing pains. Maybe one season isn’t long enough to get Winston into some good habits. 

You’re certainly entitled to your onion, but I respectfully disagree with your disagreement. :)  

 
DocHolliday said:
Could be.   Not sure there should be a Rivers vs. Winston discussion just yet.   
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Yeah, plenty of teams could be looking for QB's.

Panthers, Bears, Colts, Jaguars, Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, Bucs. Obviously some of those teams will draft a QB, and this is a draft where 3 QB's are pretty much a lock as 1st rounders, with Burrow almost a lock to Cincy.

Rivers to me seems like a guy who 100% will be a starter next season. I could see a scenario where Winston isn't, and is brought in as competition for another QB. Maybe Chicago? 

 
Maybe Chicago? 
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I know several bears fans who’d need to be put on suicide watch if this happens. They struggled enough with Trubisky this season.

jokes aside, I think Mitch develops into a good QB. As soon as they took the shackles off his legs, the whole Bears offense opened up. He didn’t have a bad last 3-4 games (1 stinker of several great performance IIRC).

CHI refused to commit to the run game, and they tried to keep Mitch in the pocket instead of letting him run out of trouble - it looked like they figured out a few things at the end of the season.

or I could be wrong & Mitch could be a terrible awful no good QB next year. Time will tell. :shrug:  I don’t think Chicago is in the market for Rivers though. 

 
The Florida move is weird though, lends me to believe he hangs them up, unless someone massively over pays
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Never underestimate an aging QBs willingness to play for literally anyone to not have to give up the game. 

Rivers strikes me as a guy who would run through a burning building in a gasoline suit to keep playing. His intensity is polarizing for a lot of NFL fans, but I’ve always preferred his perpetual look of perturbed rage to say, Eli Manning’s slumped shoulders on the sideline after a pick.

IMO he’ll keep playing until no one wants him or he’s physically unable. At least that’s my impression of him. Again, I could be wrong. I don’t know the man personally. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
So again, you’d rather have Rivers for $20M to be the last stop for a dead-ender than give Winston $25M to see if he can develop into a future franchise QB? 

Rivers seems like a huge waste of $ to me. 

If Bucs management agrees with that, then that’s why they’ll continue to suck.

Further, bringing in a HC who specializes in developing QBs was also a waste of time & $. If Rivers is the Bucs plan, they don’t need Ariens. 

finally I’m not sure where you’re getting $25m for Winston when the Bucs can franchise tag him. Before the Rivers rumor  that was thought to be the plan. 
:shrug:  
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The thought behind bringing in Rivers is drafting a qb in rd 1/2 that would spend a year behind him developing in the Arians system. If they’ve determined that Jameis can’t be the guy at that price, they know they have a competitive team for 2020 and want to win now. That doesn’t happen with a rookie qb. Nobody is expecting Rivers to be any kind of a long term solution. 

 
Wow. This is interesting. In my mind Rivers wasn't even better than Brissett this year, and I saw both play quite often. Rivers vs. the Raiders was about as bad as one could get, and convinced me that he was washed, also.

I could be wrong. Like HSG, if he proves me wrong, no harm no foul. I've also always liked Rivers and his game. But it seems gone. 

 
My thoughts in no order -

I agree with everyone who's said that rivers has looked cooked.  Based on the national games and few times he's been on redzone.

Since when is TB in superbowl or bust mode?  There's a team that could draft a rookie qb to ride the pine behind a vet and it would make sense.

Hate Winston as a real world qb, but as I said before I don't see rivers as a real option any more, especially for a team that wants to gun it.  Would rather neither.

Tybursky sucks and always will suck.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
So Tampa Bay would move on from a young turnover prone QB in favor of a 38 year old turnover prone QB? That doesn't sound like a good plan.
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It's because Bruce Arians is an impatient franchise wrecker at this point, willing to throw your future in the trash for a long shot 1 percent chance at a super bowl appearance before he retires. 

I do think he's trying to set up one of his protégé as well, Leftwich most likely. 

 
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Capella said:
The thought behind bringing in Rivers is drafting a qb in rd 1/2 that would spend a year behind him developing in the Arians system. If they’ve determined that Jameis can’t be the guy at that price, they know they have a competitive team for 2020 and want to win now. That doesn’t happen with a rookie qb. Nobody is expecting Rivers to be any kind of a long term solution. 
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That doesn't happen with Rivers either, especially if they spend an early draft pick on a QB instead of improving their team elsewhere. Also, didn't he basically say he has no interest in mentoring a young QB?

Really see very little upside to Tampa by bringing in Rivers.

 
Winston - never had it in the NFL, and for $25M isn't worth the shot in the dark he finds it

Rivers - no longer has it

LAC's and TB's best options lie elsewhere

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
But...but those are the choices right now. Who of those two. 
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Draft a QB.  Throw him onto the field in 2020 or find a cheap vet for 2020.   Winston and Rivers aren’t taking the Bucs to the SB in 2020.   Rivers looked done to me.   Winston is a horrible decision-maker.  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I know several bears fans who’d need to be put on suicide watch if this happens. They struggled enough with Trubisky this season.

jokes aside, I think Mitch develops into a good QB. As soon as they took the shackles off his legs, the whole Bears offense opened up. He didn’t have a bad last 3-4 games (1 stinker of several great performance IIRC).

CHI refused to commit to the run game, and they tried to keep Mitch in the pocket instead of letting him run out of trouble - it looked like they figured out a few things at the end of the season.

or I could be wrong & Mitch could be a terrible awful no good QB next year. Time will tell. :shrug:  I don’t think Chicago is in the market for Rivers though. 
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We must look at very different things in QB's. Trubisky is a backup QB and nothing more in my opinion, as a Bears fan. He simply can't play with any consistency, not just week to week, but even snap to snap. He has all the negatives of Winston, but with none of the high end play. 

I agree its unlikely the Bears go after Rivers or Winston, but both would be upgrades. I think they are more likely to go a cheaper route, like Mariota or maybe Dalton. Either way, any of those 4 would be an upgrade in my opinion. Maybe Jake Fromm is still there in round 2? 

Unrelated side note, why are people so quick to say Rivers is done from 1 down season? I see the same thing in the Brady thread, and even the Brees(seriously?) one. Its like people want to be the 1st one to be right about writing someone off. I could see Rivers, and especially Brady, pulling a Favre in Minnesota in the right situation. 

Indy needs a QB more than anybody, they should be in on everyone. Reich is an excellent play caller, and Brissett looked awful, he was the worst starting QB in he NFL in my opinion. He had the best o-line in the NFL, an easy schedule, and while the Colts weapons did have trouble staying healthy, nothing about Brissett's play made me think he would have fared well if they'd been healthy. The Colts probably would have won more games just starting Hoyer, and he's no great shakes either. 

If I were ranking available QB's I'd rank them as follows:

1. Brees, be shocked if he left NO.

2. Brady, could easily see a 2009 Favre season from him out of NE.

3. Rivers, he needs an o-line. That fixes probably 70% of his issues in my eyes.

4. Prescott, be shocked if he left Dallas, but he doesn't do enough in a near perfect situation. He's closer to Cousins than a Franchise guy.

5. Tannehill, I think both sides want to stay together.

6. Fitzpatrick, quietly is playing the best football of his career. Could be very useful in the right situation. No lock to leave Miami.

7. Dalton, assuming the Bengals don't keep him as bridge QB to start the 1st part of the season. The Bengals awfulness isn't on him.

8. Foles, assuming Jags go in a different direction. Foles has proven he can be valuable in the past, maybe he'd have been better if healthy all year.

9. Mariota, his career is almost identical to Tannehill's before 2019. Change of scenery/expectations could go a long way.

10. Keenum, can't get that 2017 out of my head. He's not a starter, but is a perfect guy to push a starter. 

11. Winston, too many awful decisions. Hasn't developed one bit in 5 years. May have actually regressed, despite arguably best weapons in the NFL over the last 2 years.

12. Flacco, less good version of Keenum.

13. Bridgewater, feels like obvious fool's gold. He doesn't get to take Sean Payton, a top o-line, or Michael Thomas with him.

14. Taylor, another solid backup, could be a cap casualty for the Chargers.

15. Newton, I think he's done, physically, and maybe mentally, and will require a high price both in trade compensation, and money investment. He's Daunte Culpepper to me. 

There has been rumors that Derek Carr could be let go by the Raiders, he's never really come close to his 2016 season again. He'd probably be in the Dalton/Foles range for me. He can be good when surrounded by great weapons, that is not the Raiders currently. 

Alex Smith could also be available as he's expressed an intention to return to the league. I like him a ton as a cheaper investment, as a bridge QB, if he can get cleared. He was in the Prescott/Tannehill range before his devastating injury. But with no information on his health I decided not to include him.

 
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DocHolliday said:
Draft a QB.  Throw him onto the field in 2020 or find a cheap vet for 2020.   Winston and Rivers aren’t taking the Bucs to the SB in 2020.   Rivers looked done to me.   Winston is a horrible decision-maker.  
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They could draft a QB & have either Winston or Rivers. 

Wouldn’t it make sense to see if some coaching could improve Winston’s decision making? He was a better decision maker last year. Maybe there’s a learning curve to the new system? 
 

just seems weird to throw away the investment in Winston. Dude’s got a cannon, and seems likely to eventually develop into a top 10 QB. 

 
DocHolliday said:
Draft a QB.  Throw him onto the field in 2020 or find a cheap vet for 2020.   Winston and Rivers aren’t taking the Bucs to the SB in 2020.   Rivers looked done to me.   Winston is a horrible decision-maker.  
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It’s not about the super bowl. The franchise hasn’t made the playoffs in 13 years. You have to walk first. The rest of the team is likely playoff caliber - they need a qb that won’t outright lose them multiple games. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
They could draft a QB & have either Winston or Rivers. 

Wouldn’t it make sense to see if some coaching could improve Winston’s decision making? He was a better decision maker last year. Maybe there’s a learning curve to the new system? 
 

just seems weird to throw away the investment in Winston. Dude’s got a cannon, and seems likely to eventually develop into a top 10 QB. 
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His INT % was 3.7 in 2018. Admittedly better than 4.8 in 2019 but still one of the worst in the league. It’s not an Arians thing. 

 
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Capella said:
Yea ok. That translates into 23 picks with the amount of passes he threw in 2019 which also would have...lead the league. 
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Sounds a lot like something that a good running game and quality coaching could help with though.

there hasn’t been a run game in Tampa Bay in the five years that Winston has been quarterback.

that is not a good way to take pressure off of a young quarterback. yet you, and others, put all of this on Winston, absolving his coaching staff, offensive line, and running game entirely.

seems incredibly shortsighted to me, but it is certainly your prerogative.

 
travdogg said:
Unrelated side note, why are people so quick to say Rivers is done from 1 down season? I see the same thing in the Brady thread, and even the Brees(seriously?) one. Its like people want to be the 1st one to be right about writing someone off. I could see Rivers, and especially Brady, pulling a Favre in Minnesota in the right situation. 
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Because Brady is currently 42 and Rivers is 38 so they've already cheated Father Time longer than most, and both looked noticeably worse than they were the year before.

Favre never really had much of a drop off before going to Minnesota. He was fantastic with the Jets (had them at 8-3 with back to back road victories over the 10-0 Titans and New England) before blowing out his bicep and Mangini not having the guts to bench him for injury.

Could Brady and/or Rivers have a resurgence with better supporting casts? Yes, of course, but there's just no denying they are on the backslope of their careers. They will be 43 and 39 next season - very few QBs in the history of the NFL have thrived at those ages. It was fairly obvious that neither what they used to be last season and another year of age and wear and tear doesn't seem likely to help, logically speaking.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
.

Favre never really had much of a drop off before going to Minnesota. He was fantastic with the Jets (had them at 8-3 with back to back road victories over the 10-0 Titans and New England) before blowing out his bicep and Mangini not having the guts to bench him for injury.
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Not to get off subject but his first year in Minn would belong in discussion as best statistical season of his career.  Then he his body and play took one of the biggest cliff dives I can recall the next year.

 
Does Rivers make the HoF without a ring?

If not, would he make it in if he got one with a new team right at the end of his career?

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Because Brady is currently 42 and Rivers is 38 so they've already cheated Father Time longer than most, and both looked noticeably worse than they were the year before.

Favre never really had much of a drop off before going to Minnesota. He was fantastic with the Jets (had them at 8-3 with back to back road victories over the 10-0 Titans and New England) before blowing out his bicep and Mangini not having the guts to bench him for injury.

Could Brady and/or Rivers have a resurgence with better supporting casts? Yes, of course, but there's just no denying they are on the backslope of their careers. They will be 43 and 39 next season - very few QBs in the history of the NFL have thrived at those ages. It was fairly obvious that neither what they used to be last season and another year of age and wear and tear doesn't seem likely to help, logically speaking.
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I don't disagree that Brady and Rivers both were worse than they were a year ago. However, they(especially Brady) have a long way left to fall, before they stop being good QB's. Even in down seasons there aren't 20 QB's better than Rivers. In Brady's case there aren't 10. 

I guess maybe I'm struggling with the word "done" I mean is Tom Brady done being an NFL MVP? Probably, sure. Is Philip Rivers done being a top-10 NFL QB? Probably, sure. But just because those things may be true, that doesn't mean they aren't useful, especially when compared to guys, whose best case scenarios aren't as good these current versions of Brady/Rivers. 

 
travdogg said:
I don't disagree that Brady and Rivers both were worse than they were a year ago. However, they(especially Brady) have a long way left to fall, before they stop being good QB's. Even in down seasons there aren't 20 QB's better than Rivers. In Brady's case there aren't 10. 

I guess maybe I'm struggling with the word "done" I mean is Tom Brady done being an NFL MVP? Probably, sure. Is Philip Rivers done being a top-10 NFL QB? Probably, sure. But just because those things may be true, that doesn't mean they aren't useful, especially when compared to guys, whose best case scenarios aren't as good these current versions of Brady/Rivers. 
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I agree on Brady and said so as much in his thread. He's in decline but isn't "done" yet. On a good team he'll still win games. He doesn't move as well and his arm is weaker but he's still smart, tough and will find a way to move the ball. Put him on Indy behind a great o-line and with those weapons, they're a playoff team and a threat.

As for Rivers like I said, maybe I was just unfortunate enough to see him at his worst but he looked cooked to me towards the second half of last season. His arm looked weak and he was throwing the ball up as if he did not care where it ended up. He was never mobile but last season he crumbled instead of even trying to avoid the rush. I don't like to speak in absolutes about football so I won't say there's no chance of him bouncing back next season but I'd be surprised by it.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
And on a far more balanced team that ran 10 times as much.

I can’t imagine how bad Rivers would’ve been if he had to throw 50 times a game.
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Rushing attempts: Chargers 366 (#28), Bucs 409 (#14)

Passing attempts: Rivers 591 (36.9 per game), Winston 626 (39.1 per game)

But don't let facts get in your way, carry on.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I agree on Brady and said so as much in his thread. He's in decline but isn't "done" yet. On a good team he'll still win games. He doesn't move as well and his arm is weaker but he's still smart, tough and will find a way to move the ball. Put him on Indy behind a great o-line and with those weapons, they're a playoff team and a threat.

As for Rivers like I said, maybe I was just unfortunate enough to see him at his worst but he looked cooked to me towards the second half of last season. His arm looked weak and he was throwing the ball up as if he did not care where it ended up. He was never mobile but last season he crumbled instead of even trying to avoid the rush. I don't like to speak in absolutes about football so I won't say there's no chance of him bouncing back next season but I'd be surprised by it.
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In 2019, Brady was better than Rivers at these things:

  • Passing TDs (+1)
  • Interceptions (-12)
  • Sacks (-7) and sack percentage (-1.2%)
  • QBR (+3.6)
Rivers was better than Brady at these things:

  • Completion percentage
  • On-target percentage
  • Bad throw percentage
  • Passing yards
  • Intended air yards
  • Completed air yards
  • Yards per attempt
  • Yards per completion
  • Yards per game
  • First downs
  • First down percentage
  • Passer rating
  • Game winning drives
  • Approximate value
This despite the fact that Brady played in a much better pass blocking offense and had much better coaching.

This data does not support the narrative being discussed in here. But, hey, I guess the fact that Rivers "looked done" and Brady didn't when you guys watched on TV trumps all of this stuff, anyway, right?

 
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