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Philip Rivers Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Moe Green
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dickey moe
Fingerpicker
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Cam seems like a better option with each passing week.
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Arm is linguini.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I hope not, watching him stink is so fun... he was my Romo replacement to enjoy watching failure. Although not as entertaining as Tony, I still enjoy him.
The Frankman
Footballguy
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
Rivers' postgame press conference was interesting. He was surprisingly frank about a couple things.
- "I know the people that know, know. I still can play at a high level."
- "As far as can I do it, there's no question. Do I still want to, absolutely."
- "I plan to play football... As long as somebody wants me, I'll be playing somewhere."
- "If 1 of 32 teams wants me and it's the right situation and I can start that 225th game in a row, I'll be running out there."
- He also alluded to the fact that the team has a lot of work to do beyond the decision about who will play QB. It is true, just a bit surprising to hear him allude to it.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Who would take a chance on him?
Maybe Jon Gruden? I don’t think he’s better than Carr at this point but maybe Gruden sees him as his new Gannon.
Maybe Arians as a stop gap in TB if they let Winston walk? Not sure he has the arm to fit the system though.
Chicago? Would he even want to play in late season games there?
His name may get him one last chance but I’m not sure that he has enough left at this point.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
The idea that Anthony Lynn has anything to say about this......says it all.
Rivers is kind of the ideal QB to transition to bridge starter/vet mentor at this point. He’s not someone I want heading my franchise anymore, but if my star goes down, he’s someone I would feel confident could come off the bench and keep a team afloat.
He looked terrible at times this year...worse than Brady, who is also in decline. But the “thrust into the role on short notice” job is one where veteran experience ways more than arm talent. Plus, unlike Brady, he strikes me as a kind of guy who wouldn’t mind playing the mentor late in his career.
Chicago would be a good choice, whether behind Trubisky or someone new. Cincy would be another landing spot should they decide to let Dalton seek a starting job elsewhere.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
He is still a lot better than the popular narrative. Consider what he dealt with this season:
- Pass blocking ranked by PFF as #31 in the league.
- OC Whisenhunt was fired after week 8.
- The running game was weak -- 28th in yards and anchored by Melvin Gordon, who averaged 3.8 ypc.
- Gordon's holdout had a huge negative impact on the season. The coaching staff forced him into the lineup immediately upon his return, despite the fact that he clearly wasn't ready and Ekeler was playing great. That disrupted the offense for several weeks.
- Lost #3 and #4 WRs early in the season. After Allen and Mike Williams, the WR with the most snaps was Andre Patton. If you said, who? the answer is, he is the WR who ranked #218 out of 220 graded WRs in PFF receiving grade.
- Also lost TE Henry for 4 games and during that window lost #3 TE for the season.
- His on-target percentage was 76.7%, which was #10 in the league and better than Wilson, Rodgers, Brady, Ryan, Wentz, Jackson, and Stafford, among others
- His bad throw percentage was 15%, which was #7 (7th lowest) in the league and better than Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers, Brady, Cousins, Wentz, Watson, Jackson, and Stafford, among others
- He was #7 in pass attempts but #3 in completions and #4 in passing yards
- He was #4 in deep passing attempts yet was still #10 in overall completion percentage
IMO it seems much more reasonable to think that all of the stuff in my first list above contributed to his dropoff in play this year -- which wasn't that bad per my second list -- than to think he fell off a cliff.
ETA: To answer your actual question, I think it is most likely that he is the starter for the Chargers in 2020. If not, I think Oakland and Tampa are both possibilities. Maybe Carolina...?
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Just Win Baby
Footballguy
I very seriously doubt Rivers will sign with another team to play behind anyone. I expect he will retire if he isn't going to start.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I just love when I come to FBG and see this thread title on the first page
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
So Tampa Bay would move on from a young turnover prone QB in favor of a 38 year old turnover prone QB? That doesn't sound like a good plan.
They haven't had a good plan for over 5 years. Why stop now. Rivers would guarantee them no shot at Trevor Lawrence. Now thats what I call a plan,
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
Career interception percentage: Rivers 2.6% (#30 all time), Winston 3.5% (#89)
Career fumbles: Rivers 112 in 239 career games, Winston 50 in 72 career games
Yep, pretty much exactly the same.
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Shawnky
Footballguy
I'm pretty sure he's referring to recent play which would be spot on.Career interception percentage: Rivers 2.6% (#30 all time), Winston 3.5% (#89)
Career fumbles: Rivers 112 in 239 career games, Winston 50 in 72 career games
Yep, pretty much exactly the same.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
Rivers had 20 interceptions and 8 fumbles playing in PFF’s #31 pass blocking offense.
Winston had 30 interceptions (50% more) and 12 fumbles (50% more) playing in PFF’s #10 pass blocking offense.
Again, not similar.
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Shawnky
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’m not sure we’re getting Rivers career.Career interception percentage: Rivers 2.6% (#30 all time), Winston 3.5% (#89)
Career fumbles: Rivers 112 in 239 career games, Winston 50 in 72 career games
Yep, pretty much exactly the same.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
So you apparently base this on his last 7 games, during which he had 13 interceptions, 4 fumbles, and 1 fumble lost = 14 turnovers in 7 games = 2.0 turnovers per game. While playing behind an OL that was bad to begin with and was mostly missing its best OL (Okung and Pouncey) during that stretch.
Despite the fact that in his first 9 games this season, he had 7 interceptions, 4 fumbles, and 1 fumble lost = 8 turnovers in 9 games = 0.9 turnovers per game.
Despite the fact that just last season, in 18 games, he had 13 interceptions, 2 fumbles, and 1 fumble lost = 14 turnovers in 18 games = 0.8 turnovers per game.
Believe what you want. The turnover narrative for Rivers in 2019 is popular but misleading.
Personally, I think Rivers would thrive playing for Arians, and I have no doubt Arians would much rather coach Rivers than Winston.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
But why assume "we're getting" only his last 7 games when he was playing behind a decimated OL?
For that matter, since interceptions seem to be the popular narrative, consider how the past 3 seasons compares to previous 3 season blocks:
- 2017-2019 - 42 interceptions, 2.5% interception percentage
- 2014-2016 - 52 interceptions, 2.9% interception percentage
- 2011-2013 - 46 interceptions, 2.5% interception percentage
- 2008-2010 - 33 interceptions, 2.2% interception percentage
- Rivers had the 7th lowest bad throw percentage; Winston was 30th out of 32 shown at PFR
- Rivers had the 10th highest on target percentage; Winston was 32nd out of 32
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You’re trying too hard.
Sorry he looks shot to me. If he still has something left in 2020 then I guess I’ll have to admit I was wrong to point out that he’s become a turnover machine.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
Sharing facts that provide appropriate context relevant to the common, surface-level narrative is trying too hard? Carry on, then.
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CalBear
Footballguy
Relevant fact; Rivers had led the league in interceptions twice, been in the top 3 four times (including this year), and led the league in pick-sixes three times (including throwing 5 in 2015, second among active players to...Jameis Winston).
Since 2006 when he took over the starting job, he's #2 in the league in INTs with 197 (behind Eli).
He's also #2 in fumbles with 106 (also behind Eli).
It's safe to say he's turnover-prone.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
That is kind of unfair way to look at it, since I am guessing no other QB has started as many games from 2006-2019 as Rivers, considering Eli was benched in 2019, Roethlisberger has missed probably two seasons worth of games due to injuries, and Brady missed all of 2008. What other QB has played close to as many games over that 14-year period as those guys? Drew Brees is probably the only other one.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
But I provided those career numbers, and was told career numbers aren't relevant to the point being made.
As for 1st in the league since 2006, that is a loaded stat. He is second in pass attempts in that period, behind only Brees. The only other 3 QBs with more than 7K pass attempts are Brady, Brees, and Eli. Rivers is better than Eli and not as good as Brady and Brees, one of whom is the GOAT and the other of whom is a top 10 all-time QB. I don't see anything surprising there, and I don't see it as a particular negative for Rivers.
Same deal for fumbles. I expect without knowing where to find it that Rivers has taken more snaps and dropbacks than any QB in the league since 2006 except maybe Brees, and only a few others are close to him. Plus, QB fumbles for QBs who do not run are largely related to pass blocking, and Rivers generally had much worse pass blocking than his contemporaries named in this post.
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CalBear
Footballguy
Rivers does have the most games over that time span, but his rates are also among the worst. Among those with 5000+ passes in that time frame (n=11), Rivers INT % per pass is third-worst, only better than Eli and Carson Palmer.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You took my initial statement that the Bucs would be replacing a young turnover prone QB with a 38 year old turnover prone QB and showed career totals when it was obvious that I was talking about the 38 year old version of Rivers. When I pointed that out you then split his season into two halves as if it made it better that most of his turnovers came in the second half of the season.
If you want I'll admit that Winston is a total bonehead and Rivers just seems to be in serious decline so their turnovers are not for the same reason but the point remains. At least Winston still has some upside at this point as is capable of making throws and moving around in ways that Rivers is not.
I know you're a tremendous Rivers' homer and that's fine - maybe he does have some juice left. Maybe the nationally televised games were not indictive as to what he has become and those that watched every snap can paint a different picture. But sorry, he looks washed to me - but maybe he gets a chance to show that the "surface-level narrative" is not the reality. We'll see.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
A couple things.
First, yes, I am a big Rivers homer. Second, it is absolutely fair to characterize Rivers as turnover prone, as @CalBear pointed out.
The reason I replied to your original post is because calling Rivers turnover prone and calling Winston turnover prone, as if they are roughly equal in that regard, is pretty far off base IMO. If Rivers is turnover prone, Winston is a turnover machine. Based just on last season, and focusing only on turnovers, Rivers would likely cut TB's turnovers in half if he starts there in 2020. So I responded to show the disparity.
Not to mention he would be better than Winston in many other ways; turnovers are only part of the story.
As for whether or not Rivers is washed up, I don't think so. He played a lot better than the popular narrative would have you believe; I posted data supporting this higher up on this page. Rivers addressed it in his final press conference of the season, saying: ""I know the people that know, know. I still can play at a high level." I agree with him, and I think the film does, too.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I wasn't trying to say they were on the same level when it comes to turnovers - just that if they replace Winston they may not want to turn to Rivers. He's not exactly going to correct that issue (even if it is indeed half) while not offering the arm-strength, mobility or upside that Winston does (since theoretically he could still improve). Now maybe it turns into Arians resurrecting Carson Palmer's career all over again but I have my doubts based on what I observed of Rivers last year, while admitting I may have just seen him at his worst.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
I have liked Rivers from a FF perspective, but never as a franchise QB. Now he looks totally done in both aspects.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I keep hearing TB. Right - because going from a team that can run & play defense where Rivers throws wildly inaccurate passes is going to be a huge upgrade when he goes to a team that can’t run or play defense while Rivers throws wildly inaccurate passes.
at least with Winston there’s the good Winston & the bad Winston.
there is only bad Rivers now. This is going to be a disaster.
at least with Winston there’s the good Winston & the bad Winston.
there is only bad Rivers now. This is going to be a disaster.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I posted before reading yours - basically just said the exact same thing. Huge downgrade for TB, and a ridiculous waste of a year of potential development for Winston.
if Ariens is truly the QB whisperer, I cannot see why he wouldn’t want to continue to work on Winston’s game in favor of a washed up Rivers.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
1. If Rivers goes to Tampa, he goes from the #31 pass blocking offense to the #10 pass blocking offense, based on PFF 2019 grades. That is a huge upgrade, which will have a significant impact on his play. Rivers has only had maybe 1 season with pass blocking graded that high, and it was more than a decade ago. Most of the OLs he has played behind with the Chargers have been well below average, and sometimes bottom of the league caliber.
2. There was no significant difference in the two rushing offenses in 2019.
3. Rivers didn't throw "wildly inaccurate passes" this season. The data that disproves that notion is on the previous page.
Capella
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m aware of that. But he’s also significantly younger and likely has a bright future for the franchise.Capella said:
let’s look at this another way - in a salary cap league, where rivers costs you $13 & Winston costs you $25, who would you rather have for your dynasty team?
Capella
Footballguy
I don’t know. Fantasy football is stupid and has nothing to do with this.
I’ve seen every Jameis game and likely every snap back to his first game in college in 2013. Couldn’t be more done with the guy. He played more reckless this year than ever before and it cost a decent team likely 2-3 wins.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Wow. Jameis, for all his faults, and your WRs were your team. Who you bringing in?
Your defense was #5 DVOA, but it cost them the first half of the year in pass defense.
Your kicker cost you 2-3 games this year along with Jameis, if we're cutting teeth on this.
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