Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
I had Smith, AJ, and Fitz cued up for 2.13. Thought Duke would grab Smith. Was definately hoping all the TEs would be on the board. There are 4 that I wouldn't mind having and I knew that one would survive the three guys behind me.
Sorry, I usually color code and bold them. Was running late and figured you'd rather have the pick then wait until I got back 2.5 hrs later.
Westbrook/Andre Johnson/Chad Johnson....I'll go toe to toe with your start anytime
I agree though...not sure why Smith is slipping as far as he is (or Ocho Cinco)kinda pointless to compare these anyway, right? i mean these drafts are won in the later rounds barring any brady/moss '07 type combos, right?Westbrook/Andre Johnson/Chad Johnson....I'll go toe to toe with your start anytimeI agree though...not sure why Smith is slipping as far as he is (or Ocho Cinco)
I was doing some research on Chad last night expecting Smith/AJ/Fitz to be gone. You can't argue with the consistancy of his numbers. Very safe pick to finish in the 3-7 range.I wouldn't trade rosters with you heads up, but I would have been very happy with the same start.Westbrook/Andre Johnson/Chad Johnson....I'll go toe to toe with your start anytimeI agree though...not sure why Smith is slipping as far as he is (or Ocho Cinco)
Don't really agree...I've seen Fred dominate a league with LT out of the gate and Owens at the 2/3 turn. I also think that you can paint yourself into a corner with your early round selections.kinda pointless to compare these anyway, right? i mean these drafts are won in the later rounds barring any brady/moss '07 type combos, right?Westbrook/Andre Johnson/Chad Johnson....I'll go toe to toe with your start anytime
It's usually tough drafting later for these exact reasons. It's generally difficult to make up the deficit between LT/Westbrook and the #10-14 RB. I welcome the challenge, but acknowledge that it's there. and yes, you can paint yourself into a corner early.Don't really agree...I've seen Fred dominate a league with LT out of the gate and Owens at the 2/3 turn. I also think that you can paint yourself into a corner with your early round selections.kinda pointless to compare these anyway, right? i mean these drafts are won in the later rounds barring any brady/moss '07 type combos, right?Westbrook/Andre Johnson/Chad Johnson....I'll go toe to toe with your start anytimeI agree though...not sure why Smith is slipping as far as he is (or Ocho Cinco)
Ah boo, you got my guy. I'll finish off the top tier TE's for everyone though.3.09: Tony Gonzalez, TE, KC
Historically I agree with you, but there's a decent chance that Chad's a problem child this year. He might even hold out. That risk is tough to take on in your Top 3 picks.That said, RB-WR-WR feels like a good play like usual at the start of these drafts.BassNBrew said:I was doing some research on Chad last night expecting Smith/AJ/Fitz to be gone. You can't argue with the consistancy of his numbers. Very safe pick to finish in the 3-7 range.I wouldn't trade rosters with you heads up, but I would have been very happy with the same start.renesauz said:Westbrook/Andre Johnson/Chad Johnson....I'll go toe to toe with your start anytimeBassNBrew said:I agree though...not sure why Smith is slipping as far as he is (or Ocho Cinco)
I really like these picks here. Maybe the 16th spot isn't so bad.
I'm sure he would have been available in the 3rd round for you and possibily the 4th. You're going to need him to really light it up to make up for the lost value.
Road Warriors said:
I'd be interested in some discussion of these picks. Driver going after Jennings is interesting, I assume it's the "Rodgers loved Jennings when he played this year" effect. Both going in the third round is also interesting - it seems like there's very little discount considering their HoF QB just retired.Gamma1210 said:
That's not it.. Jennings ADP in the WSL 1-3 was 17th WR taken Driver was 26.7!!!!
I ike Jennings a lot for the future, but when most of his FF points were due to TDs and his QB (arguably best QB ever) retired, leaving him a starter with no real experience, I wouldn't go near him in a redraft this early.That's not it.. Jennings ADP in the WSL 1-3 was 17th WR taken Driver was 26.7!!!!
I drafted Jennings at wr 19 in WSL 2 and I agree with the overall downgrade without Farve...
I thought Driver was great value at 26.7 though with Farve.
great pick.
Best. Ball.I ike Jennings a lot for the future, but when most of his FF points were due to TDs and his QB (arguably best QB ever) retired, leaving him a starter with no real experience, I wouldn't go near him in a redraft this early.
I drafted Jennings at wr 19 in WSL 2 and I agree with the overall downgrade without Farve...
I thought Driver was great value at 26.7 though with Farve.
I'll talk more about this after the draft, but my rationale was he would certainly NOT be available for me in the 4th and a slight chance I miss him in the 3rd. My strategy going in was WR, RB, QB and he was a player I didn't want to risk losing out on by going WR, QB, RB.
Do you think Jennings comes close to last year's stats - including TDs?With Favre, I would easily take him before this, with Rodgers... maybe in the late 4th, early 5th?Best. Ball.I ike Jennings a lot for the future, but when most of his FF points were due to TDs and his QB (arguably best QB ever) retired, leaving him a starter with no real experience, I wouldn't go near him in a redraft this early.
I drafted Jennings at wr 19 in WSL 2 and I agree with the overall downgrade without Farve...
I thought Driver was great value at 26.7 though with Farve.
Haven't done projections for him yet, but I would think that his big game abillities would have him a bit higher than Driver, who seems to be more of the possession guy at this point in his career. I still like Driver, but I think that the chances of Driver's numbers to increase are better than Jennings (simply because of the few TDs for Driver last year).Jennings has the ability to put up some bigger games, probably more so than Driver at this point. However GB is likely to run more and throw less as part of their offense next year, so I'd think Jennings is more likely to have less stats than 2007.Do you think Jennings comes close to last year's stats - including TDs?With Favre, I would easily take him before this, with Rodgers... maybe in the late 4th, early 5th?Best. Ball.I ike Jennings a lot for the future, but when most of his FF points were due to TDs and his QB (arguably best QB ever) retired, leaving him a starter with no real experience, I wouldn't go near him in a redraft this early.That's not it.. Jennings ADP in the WSL 1-3 was 17th WR taken Driver was 26.7!!!!
I drafted Jennings at wr 19 in WSL 2 and I agree with the overall downgrade without Farve...
I thought Driver was great value at 26.7 though with Farve.
You took Williams at 23. He went at 52 in League 3. He's still on the board in League 1 and League 4 (both through 51 picks).Whether he would have made it back to you or not, he's going to have to do a lot to be worth the #23 pick.
If it makes you feel better, I probably would have taken him instead of Edge.
very riskyI know TL has super man love for DeAngelo.
I'm not arguing Jennings vs. Driver, I'd avoid both at this spot although I'd take GJ first. I'm very happy Holmes fell and Jennings was taken - same logic you just stated.Haven't done projections for him yet, but I would think that his big game abillities would have him a bit higher than Driver, who seems to be more of the possession guy at this point in his career. I still like Driver, but I think that the chances of Driver's numbers to increase are better than Jennings (simply because of the few TDs for Driver last year).Jennings has the ability to put up some bigger games, probably more so than Driver at this point. However GB is likely to run more and throw less as part of their offense next year, so I'd think Jennings is more likely to have less stats than 2007.Do you think Jennings comes close to last year's stats - including TDs?With Favre, I would easily take him before this, with Rodgers... maybe in the late 4th, early 5th?Best. Ball.I ike Jennings a lot for the future, but when most of his FF points were due to TDs and his QB (arguably best QB ever) retired, leaving him a starter with no real experience, I wouldn't go near him in a redraft this early.That's not it.. Jennings ADP in the WSL 1-3 was 17th WR taken Driver was 26.7!!!!
I drafted Jennings at wr 19 in WSL 2 and I agree with the overall downgrade without Farve...
I thought Driver was great value at 26.7 though with Farve.
So I'm saying more that this format (Best Ball) favors a bigger play WR like Jennings than a steady WR like Driver - but both are certainly WR2 material. It would greatly depends on the rest of your team's roster as to which was the better fit.
Not trying to turn this into a "Justify DWill that early thread", but at RB18, an up and comer with young, fresh legs, will always get the nod from me in this format, rather than an unknown with competition (Turner), a couple of old backs approaching 30 (Edge/Jamal/Graham) or a Rookie. In Survivor, its WIN or go home. An injury week can kill you. In all fairness, these were the only backs available to take, and much of this "DWILL" strategy was formed when I took Moss in the first. Sure, I thought there was a chance I might get lucky and snag a Maroney, but I'm hopefully gaining on everyone's WR1, so I can afford to give a little back to my RB1 WITH tremendous upside. DWill finished RB29 and Foster RB30 last year. DWill did it with only 144 carries while Foster had 230. Those carries have to go somewhere, and while I'm sure a vet is coming to help, I think we see a flip / flop in 2008, with DWill getting the 230 and yet to be named RB with the 144. Another 90 carries puts DWill as a Top 10 back if he continues his average.
Good stuff and I agree whole heartedly with your analysis, however what's missing is my fundamental strategy of my first 3 picks. WR, RB, QB. If I replace that with WR, QB, RB, it doesn't change anything. Peyton and Brady were already off the board, so ROMO was my guy here in the 3rd. To take him in the 2nd and RISK losing out on my top rated RB didn't make sense. I analyzed the winning teams this offseason and found a few things that I'll share after this draft is over.
I could care less who you (or anyone else) picks . . . this is not even my league.But running the numbers, Williams had 139 fantasy points in this format. Adding 90 carries at his lifetime 4.6 ypc = + 41.4 fantasy points. That would have given him 180 points and would have ranked him 18th. But last year was not a great year for RB production, and that total would have ranked 26th in 2006. Also, Carolina has ranked bottom 5 in rushing TD the last two years. Maybe that will change this year, but they have a long way to go to having a great running game in CAR.
Flawed when you don't account for TDs or receptions with the additional playing time, but your point about Carolina production is valid.
What do you forsee DWill producing this year (carries/yardage/TD/receptions/yardage/TD)?
I'll be releasing that information with my RB BOOM and BUST picks later this month.
Looking forward to it...love seeing thoughts outside the mainstream. Again...it isn't the pick, but the timing of the pick I would question. Taking him where you did means you HAVE to be right just to keep pace, instead of letting BEING RIGHT put you AHEAD of the pace.Maybe you couldn't have had both Romo and DWill if you'd waited, but you can't convince me that you're getting better value this way. Sounds (and looks) like you're trying to force the draft to fit your desires(favorite players, whatever), instead of letting the draft come to you and finding the value plays.
All I was trying to figure out was what DWill has to do to be worth the #23 pick. And based on what the Panthers RBs have produced in recent years, he would either need a huge chunk of the workload and/or a huge jump in production.In 6 years with Fox as HC, CAR has averaged:14th in rushing attempts20th in rushing yards21st in rushing TD23rd in rushing yards per attemptThat would be my concern as a Williams owner, no matter where he was drafted for fantasy purposes. If he ends up splitting time, I have a hard time taking him as my #2 pick in a 16 team league. If he doesn't, IMO the best he could do is break even based on his draft position. As others have mentioned, if he was taken in the 5th round (which is where he seems to be going in the other PDSL leagues), he at least has some upside if he pans out and limited risk if he doesn't.
I wanted Holmes at my pick but he went right before so I decided to go with Driver because I think his TDs last year were an outlier. I personally like Rodgers and think the team will let him throw (not as much as Favre but enough). I like Driver to finish above his ADP that I had him, and even though I took him a little early, he would not have made it to the end of the 5th. That is a disadvantage of being on either end of the draft, if you really want someone, you have to reach. He doesn't have as much upside as say Evans, but he also should be scoring for me every week.
I drafted Jennings at wr 19 in WSL 2 and I agree with the overall downgrade without Farve...
I thought Driver was great value at 26.7 though with Farve.
OldMilwaukeeP.S.. - http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=389933
