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Jason Wood

Player Spotlight: Trent Edwards

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2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Trent Edwards, QB, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: Trent Edwards Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

FBG Projections

Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player

Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

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In 7 of his 10 games in action last season he threw for ZERO TDS...I cannot emphasize enough how bad of a draft selection he is going to make for a lot of owners. Can he improve? Of course but he had talent at WR last year in Lee Evans. Dick Jauron is a lousy HC for passing games and I don't think Edwards will make it out of the bottom 10.

Only to be drafted late, I wouldn't get bogged down in stats with him.

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I kept him as my #3 QB this year, mainly because of their draft pick, Hardy at WR and because if I had started him over Palmer, I would have won a playoff game last year.

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2650 yards

14 TDs

7 INT

50 rushing yards

1 rush TD

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3000 yards passing

17 TDs

11 INTs

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3000 yards passing17 TDs11 INTs

These numbers make sense in a rather conservative offense.

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T. Edwards

Passing Yards -- 2,400

Passing TDs -- 12

Ints -- 10

Rush Yards -- 70

Rush TDs -- 0

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3000 yards passing17 TDs11 INTs

These numbers make sense in a rather conservative offense.
agree with the number and the comment. I don't see Edwards elevating the play of those around him (i.e. Evans, Lynch, etc...)

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In 6 pt TD leagues, I don't see much value at all in Edwards. He's going to have a good chunk of 0 TD games.

I think Buffalo's going to be a bit better this year, although the record may not show it. Even though this team was a possible 9 win team (Den game, Dal game) they got outscored by over 100 points. Some of it is the NE factor (actually, 77 points of it is the NE factor) but it says something about your team when you're not even in the same hemisphere as someone in your division.

An improved Bills team should help Edwards, but he was such a nonfactor last year, I can't see wanting him among my top 25 QBs.

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In 6 pt TD leagues, I don't see much value at all in Edwards. He's going to have a good chunk of 0 TD games.

I think Buffalo's going to be a bit better this year, although the record may not show it. Even though this team was a possible 9 win team (Den game, Dal game) they got outscored by over 100 points. Some of it is the NE factor (actually, 77 points of it is the NE factor) but it says something about your team when you're not even in the same hemisphere as someone in your division.

An improved Bills team should help Edwards, but he was such a nonfactor last year, I can't see wanting him among my top 25 QBs.

so true, which begs the question. why not Losman? Evans flourishes when he's under center.

Edwards is the type of QB who won't make the big mistake, but also won't take you to the next level, which doesn't equate to QB1 fanatsy numbers.

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In 6 pt TD leagues, I don't see much value at all in Edwards. He's going to have a good chunk of 0 TD games.

I think Buffalo's going to be a bit better this year, although the record may not show it. Even though this team was a possible 9 win team (Den game, Dal game) they got outscored by over 100 points. Some of it is the NE factor (actually, 77 points of it is the NE factor) but it says something about your team when you're not even in the same hemisphere as someone in your division.

An improved Bills team should help Edwards, but he was such a nonfactor last year, I can't see wanting him among my top 25 QBs.

so true, which begs the question. why not Losman? Evans flourishes when he's under center.

Edwards is the type of QB who won't make the big mistake, but also won't take you to the next level, which doesn't equate to QB1 fanatsy numbers.

He's only been in the league for one season. I'm not sure we really know what "type of QB" he is.

I agree that he's a very weak option in redraft leagues though.

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In 6 pt TD leagues, I don't see much value at all in Edwards. He's going to have a good chunk of 0 TD games.

I think Buffalo's going to be a bit better this year, although the record may not show it. Even though this team was a possible 9 win team (Den game, Dal game) they got outscored by over 100 points. Some of it is the NE factor (actually, 77 points of it is the NE factor) but it says something about your team when you're not even in the same hemisphere as someone in your division.

An improved Bills team should help Edwards, but he was such a nonfactor last year, I can't see wanting him among my top 25 QBs.

so true, which begs the question. why not Losman? Evans flourishes when he's under center.

Edwards is the type of QB who won't make the big mistake, but also won't take you to the next level, which doesn't equate to QB1 fanatsy numbers.

Losman is on the bench because the coaching staff believes that Edwards play gives the team the best chance to win in the NFL; I don't think the Bills organization is all that concerned with FF numbers.

Hopefully Jauron realizes that he is not going to win a lot of games if he doesn't put up points. The Bills can't afford to be one dimentional on offense, no team can, not even Minnesota with the two backs it has. Look at Jacksonville in the playoffs against the Pats last year. Garrard was looking down field quite a bit and they have a great one-two punch in MJD and FT. The Bills are going to have to try and open it up more whether they like it or not.

Time will tell on Edwards. We know he can hit the dump off pass and be conservative with the ball. He will have to do more for the Bills to win.

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I think the Bills were taking it slow with Edwards last year. While i dont think they are going to "unleash" him this year, i do not think they will be as conservative. With a year under his belt, and the addition of Hardy, i suspect to see a mild to moderate improvement in Edwards numbers.

3100 yards, 19 TD's, 15 Int's

90 rush, 1 TD

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New offensive coordinator this year. Steve "conservative" Fairchild is out.

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New offensive coordinator this year. Steve "conservative" Fairchild is out.

But isn't the play-calling simply a reflection of the HC, who is still there? Meanwhile, all they did was promote a guy from within who isn't likely to change too much and has NO play-calling experience (this frustrated Bill's fan blog posting was funny re: the OC's experiences). As long as Jauron is in town, I would be hard-pressed to think there are going to be considerable changes in philosophy...you may even see them run the ball more this season than last. It wouldn't be insane to think that the DEF will perform better this than last year (adding Stroud and a lot of players returning from injury), keeping them in the game more than in 2007 and providing them the chance to run a higher percentage of the time.

But as for Edwards: He has a solid (though not great) running game and a coach that is commited to keeping the pressure off of the QB (literally and figuratively) by running the football. There are good targets for him to throw to as well. The problem lies in his willingness and ability to utilize those players to their strengths...he did not do it last season, and he needs to prove himself capable prior to getting very high projections from me.

A few notes:

-His adjusted net yds/att. at PFR places him amongst the likes of KHolcombe, PRamsey, RGrossman and KBoller.

-Just looking at Lee Evans numbers: the completion percentage from Losman to Evans in 2007 was a not impressive 54%, while Edwards completion percentage to Evans (while targeting him a smaller percentage of the time) after returning from injury was 44%.

-MLynch had more yards/carry with Losman in (about 4.1) than Edwards (about 3.8) despite playing a slighty easier schedule (using RB SOS)

Granted...Edwards was a rookie (and Losman isn't that good either), and we are looking at a small sample sizes, but this is not a player to get excited about IMO...and he could very well hurt the values of his surrounding cast.

I am penciling him in for 274/480, 3030, 15/14.

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You don't draft a WR in the second round not to use him. You don't re-sign (reportedly in the negotiation stage) a talented wide receiver to merely use him as a decoy.

This won't be the 2007 Pats, but the passing numbers will go up over the course of the year; otherwise they won't be competitive.

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I don't care if they promoted the water boy to call plays, it HAS to be an improvement. And from my experience Dick lends his hand more to the D than the O, but only time will tell.

They do have new terminology, so I'm hoping for a new and improved O.

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You don't draft a WR in the second round not to use him. You don't re-sign (reportedly in the negotiation stage) a talented wide receiver to merely use him as a decoy.This won't be the 2007 Pats, but the passing numbers will go up over the course of the year; otherwise they won't be competitive.

I agree, but planning to utilize players and actually completing the task are 2 different things, however.This team with Edwards and Losman threw the ball to Evan 113 times for 849 yards and 5 TDs in 2007. Compare that to Evans' rookie year, he was thrown to 68 times for 843 and 9TDs. Obviously, some changes need to be made moving forward (and as an Edwards owner in a keeper-league, I hope they do)...but...I will first need to see something on the field to show me that a BUF player in the passing game is worth drafting (unless Evans falls well below his ADP).:shrug:

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2850/15/15

20/60/0

Assumes, as always, he starts 16 games.

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IMO...

Jauron see's NE's dynamic passing game, and wants in on it. Expect more pass offense this season.

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My current projections...

261/448 (58.26%) for 2,957 yards (6.6 YPA) and 14 TD vs. 12 INT.

20 Carries for 58 Yards (2.90) and 0 TD.

I'm probably being too conservative on the TD but I think the other numbers are in line. I could see 17-18 passing TD as a ceiling but I don't expect Jauron or the new OC to abandon Marshawn Lynch too much in the offense and I'm not sold on Lee Evans/Hardy being enough impact wise to help Edwards.

I also expect the AFC East defenses to be tougher (New England is always tough) with the Jets and Dolphins likely improving.

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I'm not real high on the Buffalo passing game, but I think Trent Edwards may offer a little stability at the QB position this season for the Bills. The Bills appear to be establishing a running game and that alone always helps a young QB in 2nd and 3rd and shorts compared to 3rd and long.

2500 yards, 13 Td's and 14 Int's

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I'm not real high on the Buffalo passing game, but I think Trent Edwards may offer a little stability at the QB position this season for the Bills. The Bills appear to be establishing a running game and that alone always helps a young QB in 2nd and 3rd and shorts compared to 3rd and long.

2500 yards, 13 Td's and 14 Int's

You can't win in the league throwing for 156 yds/game and Jauron knows it.

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3081 yards

17 TDs

12 INTs

Bills are looking better and '08 be a nice second year for Edwards

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I think his ceiling is going to be around 180-190 yards per game in '08. So, 3,000-ish passing yards with 15-16 TDs. Probably between 11-15 picks. Maybe another rushing TD snuck in there.

MAYBE if everything breaks right he cracks 200 yards a game. I just don't see it right now.

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In addition to Hardy the Bills also added TE/H-Back Derrick Fine out of Kansas. He had 46 catches last year which is pretty good for a college TE (Shockey had 40 his final year at Miami just for a comparison). That has to be an improvement to their offense because Robert Royal is just terrible.

3000

20 TDs

12 Ints

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Edwards made some big throws in key moments of games. He's not simply a dink and dunk player. It's easy to mistake him as such because he plays smart. This is where game observation will complement what stats won't show you. I agree he's not a good re-draft player this year. Losman is on the bench because Edwards is good and has a brighter future. He plays with better leadership and composure. Edwards is not Brad Johnson reincarnated. He has more potential.

This year? At best, 3200 yards 15 scores, 11 Ints and probably a similar record as last year. Good dynasty pick at some point, but re-draft only deep leagues but worth watching on the wavier wire.

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The MAIN (not the only) reason Edwards' stats were lackluster was because the Bills played VERY conservative with him especially in the cold weather games. A couple blizzard games didn't help. Not that he'll be a great fantasy option, but he has a lot going for him. The offensive line was decent and should improve because of continuity. They had the toughest schedule in the league last year. This year should be a little easier. He's got some time under his belt and possibly a #2 WR. When the coaches took the reigns off him (e.g. two minute drills and hurry up), he showed he could move the offense fluidly. Finally, he looks comfortable, checks down receivers, and keeps his composure, so if Hardy and/or a TE emerges he should be able to produce. The team is better off with him (more wins and less sacks), so he'll be able to hang on to the job, which will make him a more valuable option than Losman (which may not say much). I like him...more as a real world QB...but a decent bench option especially in larger leagues.

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