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David Yudkin

Anarchy League 2 Draft Order & Smack Talk Thread

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JWB -This just in. Everybody gets affected by injuries. :D

Except Fiddles, who still has ever player in the lineup producing. Duckboy's only missing one. That's a big part of winning these leagues, getting production from all your players.I'm annoyed that I lost Nugent and that they appear to be keeping him out even though he's healthy now. His production alone would have put me into the top 6--and he's a freaking kicker, what's he doing getting injured?But it mostly looks like five teams with a shot at this point, and then a whole lot of parity after that.
i am lucky to have all of my players contributing now but in the past between ray rice, ladell betts, and kevin boss ive had my fair shair of 0s

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JWB -This just in. Everybody gets affected by injuries. :unsure:

Except Fiddles, who still has ever player in the lineup producing. Duckboy's only missing one. That's a big part of winning these leagues, getting production from all your players.I'm annoyed that I lost Nugent and that they appear to be keeping him out even though he's healthy now. His production alone would have put me into the top 6--and he's a freaking kicker, what's he doing getting injured?But it mostly looks like five teams with a shot at this point, and then a whole lot of parity after that.
Shoot, with Tatum Bell coming back somehow, I nearly had everyone producing last week. Lot of good it's doing me!Wow did I draft horribly this year.... :thumbup:

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I really thought picking Pats D and Cowboys D was a good move.

Only the 13th and 22nd D now and add to that that it's quite possible neither team makes the playoffs.

I still think these are two of the better teams in the NFL but....

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I really thought picking Pats D and Cowboys D was a good move.Only the 13th and 22nd D now and add to that that it's quite possible neither team makes the playoffs.I still think these are two of the better teams in the NFL but....

I wanted the Steelers and Tampa bay, one team from each conference that I thought would do good and make the playoffs, possibly the super bowl. Tampa was taken so I fell back on Tenn D, which looks like its working out pretty good now.So, I think we were thinking alike.

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I really liked my team when we started, but things simply have not worked out . . .

Tom Brady hurt in the first qurater of the first game.

Earnest Graham and Laurence Maroney on IR.

Kenny Watson cut and hurt.

Plaxico Burress taking one in the leg.

Chris Chambers banged up most of the year.

David Patten out most of the year.

Ben Watson missing a big chunk of time early and never being productive.

And if things play out the wrong way, I could have no players alive for the post season.

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I really liked my team when we started, but things simply have not worked out . . .

Tom Brady hurt in the first qurater of the first game.

Earnest Graham and Laurence Maroney on IR.

Kenny Watson cut and hurt.

Plaxico Burress taking one in the leg.

Chris Chambers banged up most of the year.

David Patten out most of the year.

Ben Watson missing a big chunk of time early and never being productive.

And if things play out the wrong way, I could have no players alive for the post season.

Hey, could be worse. Could have drafted MY team! :bag: This has got to be my worst draft EVER...

Eagles, Philadelphia PHI TMQB -- continues his hot/cold play -- not very consistent -- not worth the high pick

Jets, New York NYJ TMQB -- big bust for me -- I thought for sure Favre would throw up some numbers with that offense, especially with resurging Jones

Bell, Tatum DEN RB -- what the hell was I thinking?! He's back, but he will be a non-factor

Dunn, Warrick TBB RB -- was a late round flyer that was a bright spot for some weeks, but nothing for awhile now

Green, Ahman HOU RB (I) -- big bust -- his nagging injuries and Slaton's rise means little production overall

Johnson, Rudi DET RB -- another "What the hell was I thinking?!" -- drafted him when he was still a Bungle thinking he could bounce back -- NOT!

Parker, Willie PIT RB -- HUGE bust -- I knew he was a bit risky, but injuries absolutely killed his value

Edwards, Braylon CLE WR -- wow, can you drop some more PLEASE?! ;)

Jones, James GBP WR -- late flyer that really hasn't done anything

Royal, Eddie DEN WR -- one lone bright spot -- if it weren't for this rookie, I'd be in dead last by a LOT :bag:

Stallworth, Donte' CLE WR -- wow what a waste of a pick!

Thomas, Devin WAS WR -- oh, look, another wasted pick!

Pope, Leonard ARI TE -- and for the tri-fecta, three wasted picks in a row!

Winslow, Kellen CLE TE (O) -- worst 1st round pick I think I've ever made -- he's like the #15 TE right now and missed like 4 weeks this year!

Carpenter, Dan MIA PK -- eh, had to have a kicker -- at least he started all year

Stover, Matt BAL PK (P) -- did so-so

Rams, St. Louis STL Def -- was short a DEF and picked the best of the worst at the time -- man were they awful this year

Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def -- a bright spot, for a defense

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I didn't do so hot either...

TMQB: Steelers - still alive but don't see getting more than 2 games out of them

TMQB: Panthers - still alive, and I think the Panthers are going all the way

RB1: Thomas Jones - OUT

RB2: Fred Taylor - OUT

RB3: Pierre Thomas - OUT

RB4: Chris Brown - IR/OUT

WR1: Reggie Wayne - still alive, but again, I think 2 games could likely be his max

WR2: TJ Housh - OUT

WR3: Lee Evans - OUT

WR4: Sidney Rice - in, but has been largely a non-factor, and Vikes are likely one-and-done

WR5: James Hardy - IR/OUT

WR6: Robert Meachem - OUT

TE1: Marcedes Lewis - OUT

TE2: Chris Baker - OUT

PK1: Kris Brown - OUT

PK2: Matt Bryant - OUT

D/ST1: Jaguars - OUT

D/ST2: Lions - OUT

I'd like to finish middle-of-the-pack, but at this point, 11th is probably my likely best finish...blah. Had really high hopes for the Jags, Jets and Saints this year, and figured at least one of my PK's (Texans/Bucs) would make the PostSeason Tourney. Oh, well. There's always next year... :jawdrop:

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Playoff performers:

Gage, Justin TEN WR

Hackett, D.J. CAR WR

Jenkins, Michael ATL WR

Crumpler, Alge TEN TE

Heap, Todd BAL TE

Kaeding, Nate SDC PK

Vinatieri, Adam IND PK

Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def

8 playoff performers isn't bad, but these 8 are pretty uncompelling. It will take a few unexpected strong performances to move up from 6th place, but hopefully these guys will score enough that I don't drop in the standings.

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200 back with:

ray rice

santonio holmes

mewelde moore

steve smith nyg

roddy white

kevin boss

rob bironas

panthers dst

think im toast - no repeat for me

about halfway through the season before the collapses i had first place with portis, barber, washington and tampa qbs

man those teams all totally fell apart and screwed me

:thumbup:

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Is it true that the winner in Anarchy II is leaving? Word on the street is that "There it is" will be moving up to the Varsity squad...and you guys will get Lhucks.

1) The season isn't over yet, but if I am fortunate enough to win this year I don't plan on going anywhere.

2) You can't just dump Lhuck on us.

3) and most importantly, Anarchy II is the Varsity squad!

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Is it true that the winner in Anarchy II is leaving? Word on the street is that "There it is" will be moving up to the Varsity squad...and you guys will get Lhucks.

No, but as winner of the A1 league you could have the option to move to A2 I suppose.

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Is it true that the winner in Anarchy II is leaving? Word on the street is that "There it is" will be moving up to the Varsity squad...and you guys will get Lhucks.

1) The season isn't over yet, but if I am fortunate enough to win this year I don't plan on going anywhere.

2) You can't just dump Lhuck on us.

3) and most importantly, Anarchy II is the Varsity squad!

:bye:

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Is it true that the winner in Anarchy II is leaving? Word on the street is that "There it is" will be moving up to the Varsity squad...and you guys will get Lhucks.

No, but as winner of the A1 league you could have the option to move to A2 I suppose.
You know, that is actually tempting, but who would get bumped?

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Is it true that the winner in Anarchy II is leaving? Word on the street is that "There it is" will be moving up to the Varsity squad...and you guys will get Lhucks.

No, but as winner of the A1 league you could have the option to move to A2 I suppose.
You know, that is actually tempting, but who would get bumped?
Someone could drop out or not come back. Or some one could really annoy the heck out of me between now and July/August.

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Is it true that the winner in Anarchy II is leaving? Word on the street is that "There it is" will be moving up to the Varsity squad...and you guys will get Lhucks.

No, but as winner of the A1 league you could have the option to move to A2 I suppose.
You know, that is actually tempting, but who would get bumped?
Someone could drop out or not come back. Or some one could really annoy the heck out of me between now and July/August.
Which brings us full circle to his original concept.

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Congrats ThereItIs!!!!

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BTW JWB

Fasano 16th TE, Gaines 35th.

Was it Alex Smith? (32nd 9 points more than Gaines) or Becht? (75th TE) that we were debating?

Miami's 24th and 16th TE production WAS impressive and along the lines of my prediction for Fasano but I soooo didn't see it being split between two that closely. Even if I didn't type it, I'd have thought one TE with the clear majority and another sorta scrub or fill-in. If a Miami TE leaves in FA, I'll grab the other in FF next year- probably too early too.

Gaines improved some since I posted that he stunk but .....I haven't botherred to research why two goose-eggs the last two weeks. Was he hurt? benched? If only he would have crossed 32 then I could "boast" that he was the worst starter, now backups were better.

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Final update before the season (I assume the current Dodds projections are his final projections):

2857.4 Just Win Baby Predicted 1, Finished 6

2776.1 Biabreakable Predicted 2, Finished 2

2756.4 CalBear Predicted 3, Finished 8

2743.5 Anarchy99 Predicted 4, Finished 13

2719.9 Duckboy Predicted 5, Finished 3

2715.2 radballs Predicted 6, Finished 5

2667.7 Old Milwaukee Predicted 7, Finished 7

2655.5 Fiddles Predicted 8, Finished 4

2642.9 Jiggyonthehut Predicted 9, Finished 11

2610.2 There It Is Predicted 10, Finished 1

2586.3 nittanylion Predicted 11, Finished 14

2581.1 joffer Predicted 12, Finished 12

2565.0 Captain Hook Predicted 13, Finished 9

2499.4 Bri Predicted 14, Finished 10

2416.4 Sinrman Predicted 15, Finished 15

2323.5 Pimpin' Ain't Easy Predicted 16, Finished 16

Bia continues to move up.

So, how did the DD predictions (with default projections) hold up? It got 5 positions exactly right and predicted 3 others within 2 spots of their final finish. Only 2 teams finished more than 5 positions off DD's projection. Not bad, considering this did not account for playoff points and was obviously subject to being thrown off by injuries.

ETA: When I was posting these DD rankings after our draft, there was some debate as to how accurate its projections might be. I said that I thought it would generally get the top half and bottom half teams right, though not necessarily their actual positions, and I thought if a team was not predicted in the top half it had a slim chance to win.

Well, There It Is was predicted 10th and won... but 7 of the 8 teams DD projected to finish in the top 8 did so. So I think my statements were actually correct. There It Is just made the most of his "slim chance."

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Following up on these.

Having done this for a few years now, I have concluded there are some general rules that contribute to success:

1. You absolutely cannot allow yourself to get shorted at kicker. Every year there are a couple of teams that wait long enough on kickers that they end up with a kicker who loses the starting job or gets cut, which means sacrificing 100+ points. In order to win, you absolutely have to ensure you are not one of those teams giving up the easy points at kicker.

OldMilwaukee, Pimpin, Jiggy, joffer, and CalBear all drafted kickers who scored 38 points or fewer. It cost each of them at least one place in the standings, and in one case up to 4 places. Some of these were probably due to injury, but not all. This rule held.

2. In this format, Dodds projects 15 TEs to score more than 150 points in the regular season. Looking at the top 2 TEs for all teams in the league, Dodds' projections have the spread from best to worst as 463 points for the best tandem to 162 points for the worst tandem. That is a huge spread for only 2 positions, larger than at any of the other positions. I think you can win without premium TEs, but IMO it is easier to win by taking advantage of the high scoring this format provides for TEs.

4 of the top 5 teams had at least one top 10 TE. Conversely, only 1 of the top 12 TEs was not on a team that finished in the top half of the league. This rule held, though it certainly can be a challenge to predict the top 10-15 TEs.

3. It is a mistake to fill the flex position with a RB. 5 teams in this league did that, and those flex players are projected by Dodds for an average of 41.9 points for the regular season. Only one of those 5 teams is projected in the top 8 teams using Dodds' default projections. Meanwhile, the other 11 flex players taken are projected by Dodds for an average of 79.7 points for the regular season, despite the fact that one of those players - Drew Carter - is out for the season and contributes a 0 to that average. Other than Carter, every non RB flex player is projected to outscore every RB flex player.

Here is the scoring for each team's flex player:

There It Is - John Carlson, 10.16 - 202.7 points

Anarchy99 - David Patten, 11.2 - 33.2 points

Bri - Brian Leonard, 14.14 - 0.7 points

Duckboy - Michael Clayton, 13.4 - 92.9 points

joffer - Courtney Taylor, 16.12 - 18.8 points

Old Milwaukee - Josh Reed, 18.11 - 121.7 points

Pimpin' Ain't Easy - Drew Carter, 12.10 - 0 points

Just Win Baby - Alex Smith, 17.8 - 87 points

Jiggyonthehut - Tim Hightower, 17.9 - 156.5 points

Fiddles - Mewelde Moore, 18.7 - 131.8 points

CalBear - Deion Branch, 13.11 - 95.2 points

nittanylion - James Hardy, 14.5 - 29.7 points

Captain Hook - Limas Sweed, 17.13 - 16.4 points

Sinrman - Tatum Bell, 9.14 - 42.6 points

Biabreakable - Ahmad Bradshaw, 10.2 - 51.7 points

radballs - Ernest Wilford, 15.16 - 5.5 points

Hightower and Moore were big successes, particularly given they were taken in the 17th & 18th rounds. Bell and Bradshaw were disappointments IMO, given they were taken in the 9th & 10th rounds. Leonard was a bust. Mixed bag here. Obviously, if you guess/project right, there is late gold here, but also a lot of downside.

4. It is a mistake to fill the flex position early. 5 teams filled their flex positions in the first 12 rounds. Only 2 of those 5 teams are projected in the top 8 teams using Dodds' default projections. Ignoring Carter, the other 4 of those flex players are projected by Dodds for an average of 74.6 points in the regular season. The flex players for the 11 teams that filled their flex positions in the last 6 rounds are projected by Dodds for an average of 71.6 points in the regular season. That gap is almost non-existent, and does not account for the points lost by the teams that filled those positions early instead of filling another mandatory position. On top of that, combining #3 above with this point and averaging only those non RB flex players taken in the last 6 rounds, they are projected to average 85.6 points. The point is, the tradeoffs involved in filling a flex position early are not worth it given the WRs and TEs available late.

Only one team that filled its flex position in the first 12 rounds got good value in doing so (There It Is, with Carlson). Conversely, 4 teams that filled their flex positions in the 17th round or later got at least 87 points. 3 of those teams got 121 or more points. Seems like this rule held.

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BTW JWBFasano 16th TE, Gaines 35th.Was it Alex Smith? (32nd 9 points more than Gaines) or Becht? (75th TE) that we were debating?Miami's 24th and 16th TE production WAS impressive and along the lines of my prediction for Fasano but I soooo didn't see it being split between two that closely. Even if I didn't type it, I'd have thought one TE with the clear majority and another sorta scrub or fill-in. If a Miami TE leaves in FA, I'll grab the other in FF next year- probably too early too.Gaines improved some since I posted that he stunk but .....I haven't botherred to research why two goose-eggs the last two weeks. Was he hurt? benched? If only he would have crossed 32 then I could "boast" that he was the worst starter, now backups were better.

Well, just for the record, here were the things I criticized about your draft:1. Taking the Cincy team QB at 2.14.2. Taking Harrison at 5.3.3. Taking Fasano and Gaines as your two mandatory TEs.4. Taking Leonard in the 14th as your flex player. I cited Smith as an example of a better flex player taken in the 17th.I'd say I was right on 1, 2, and 4. You were right about your TEs. The other thing was you said you wouldn't draft Alex Smith in a 25 round draft. He finished with 87 points, ahead of many other players drafted in our 18 round draft, so I think you were pretty clearly off base on that.Of course, other than Smith, you didn't criticize my draft. And there was plenty of good criticism material there. :yes:

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So you wouldn't consider Smith an option if the league went 25 rounds, yet you drafted Michael Gaines as one of your mandatory TEs... LOL.You made fun of Smith saying he gets only 300 yards and 2 TDs per year... whereas Gaines has never had more than 215 yards or 2 TDs in a season in his career. Your own description of Gaines was:

Here's a guy that if you didn't watch closely in Buffalo you didn't see. He played that little and they threw to the TE that little

I can see why you would think we should stop discussing this. :thumbup:
that's right and Anthony Fasano's high season is even less than Gaines at 143.Like I mentioned earlier, we'll revisit this later. You just save some of that beer your drinking tonight to wash down the crow in January.
:yes:

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Congrats ThereItIs!!!!

:thumbup:
Thanks guys. This is a great league with great people.Thanks David for inviting us.
Grats!

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Always have to do the post-mortem. From my original notes:

1.11 Tony Gonzalez, TE KC

My boy! I love having Tony on my team; he's solid, reliable, and fun to watch. His Sweet 16 team is still my favorite Cal basketball team; he totally manhandled Tim Thomas at both ends of the court. He's reached the point of his football career where fantasy players have started to discount and underestimate him in favor of flashy newcomers like Witten. Well, last year in this format Gonzalez was the #3 non-QB in overall scoring, and his situation is virtually unchanged this year. He'll catch a ton of balls and rack up good yardage, and have some TD opportunities as well. I have him projected at 80/950/6, which is relatively conservative and a significant drop from last year; that still puts him at #6 overall on my board, so I'm doubly glad to get him with pick 11. Reggie Wayne was my second choice, with Addai (the top RB) not really worth considering in this scoring.

Result: A+

Tony ended up as the #1 non-QB. He out-scored Wayne by 100 points and Addai by 220. I love Gonzo.

2.06 Chad Johnson, WR CIN

I had a tier of WRs here ranked above a tier of RBs. But none of the WRs were guys I was totally comfortable with. Andre Johnson--injury, Houston, and he's never really performed up to people's expectations of him. Chad/Housh--who will be favored? Holt--will STL be any better? Burress--I've never really liked him. The tier of RBs was Lynch/LJ/Portis, all projected to score 30-50 points less than the WR tier. I originally started with Chad Johnson just ahead of Lynch in my draft list, but on reflection I couldn't really justify taking one of the RBs with all those WR points sitting on the board. Anyway, nittanylion didn't take Chad, so I got my somewhat reluctant first choice.

Result: D

Ocho Cinco basically tied LJ and beat Burress, but lost to the rest of the crew. The real failure here is failure to choose Andre Johnson, who I considered. He was the #2 overall scorer, and would have netted me an additional 190 points; that choice alone was the difference between eighth and fifth place for me. Player evaluation is key.

3.11 Jamal Lewis, RB CLE

The league is getting smarter; there's a lot less competition for mediocre RBs. At this point last year, RBs had been picked clean and there were a ton of great WRs and TEs on the board; now there are some decent RB prospects and some iffy receivers. (I can't believe Dodds has Calvin Johnson projected as the highest scorer of the remaining bunch--even higher than Roy Williams). DVBD has pretty much equalized across WR, RB and QB. I didn't seriously consider either of the Detroit WRs or Owen Daniels (top TE, similar DVBD); I gave some consideration to PHI QB, who I have projected significantly higher than Dodds. But in the end it looked like time to get an anchor RB. Lewis is unexciting but is an undisputed starter who'll get a bunch of carries; he should be a solid producer.

Result: F

Lewis actually outscored Ocho Cinco, but I whiffed badly on Calvin Johnson here and cost myself another 140 points. Owen Daniels would have been another 100 points, and the PHI QB wound up #5 overall. I avoided Roy Williams at this point, but other than that made about the worst pick I could have. Brandon Jacobs would have been a reasonable RB choice to work out better (+70 points).

4.06 Roy Williams, WR DET

Detroit may suck, but I still see Roy as the #1 WR there, and he should be a bargain as the #18 WR overall. Talent plus opportunity should make it easy for him to meet that expectation, and there are real possibilities for a top-10 finish if he stays healthy. Kitna is not a bad QB. Other possibilities were Dwayne Bowe (I'm not convinced, plus I don't want to double up on KC players) and Edgerrin James, who is more or less equivalent in VBD/DVBD to Williams. I haven't seen any sign that Arizona's run blocking will be any better, so I'll stick with the WR here. There should be other RB possibilities later; I'll be hoping to target Willie Parker or Selvin Young with my next pick.

Result: F

Now I failed to avoid Roy Williams. Perhaps I couldn't have predicted how it went down, but this obviously was a huge whiff. Another 140 points available by picking Bowe instead.

5.11 Ronnie Brown, RB MIA

Incredibly, we're over 70 picks into the draft and only 20 RBs have been selected. Some drafts hit this point by the 24th pick. There are a few decent WR prospects like Driver, Coles (taken the pick before me), Roddy White, or Chambers, but none of them really shouts to me as an obvious choice. The focus on QBs, WRs and TEs has left a number of pretty solid RB prospects on the board, and it's just a question of whose story you believe. In terms of stats, I have Ronnie Brown at the top of my board by VBD and DVBD; the question, of course, is his knee, which is why he's lasted so long. But at pick 75 he has to represent value, with tremendous upside. (His ADP is pick #26!) My other favorites here were Driver (who I might get a shot at with my next pick) Willie Parker, Selvin Young, and Michael Turner. I expect that we're about to see an RB run, so I think all the backs will be gone by my next pick.

Result: A

My fifth-round pick outscored picks in rounds 2, 3, and 4. He finished as the #13 RB; a very good performance. The perfect selection here would have been Michael Turner, but I'll take 196 points out of a fifth-round RB any day.

6.06 Donald Driver, WR GB

Boy, I was right with that RB run prediction; 5 RBs in a row after my pick. Rudi Johnson at 6.03 was the last of the solid RB starters; the value remaining is much more marginal. The run left a lot more value at WR, with a bunch of good WRs in passing offenses still on the board. My favorite here is Driver, who I think is being overlooked this year; I have him projected fairly modestly, 80/1000/5, and he's still been sitting near the top of my board for two rounds now. The one game Rodgers started last year, Driver got 10 targets and was 7/66, so there's no reason to expect that Rodgers will favor the other receivers. In other news, defenses are starting to creep onto the DVBD list; I pretty much ignore defensive stat predictions, so I won't be taking one soon, but I expect we'll see the first one go before the end of round 7. I'm hoping that people concentrate on RBs for a little longer to start to bring QB value back up. Vince Young and Aaron Rodgers are the top two QBs on my board, and they might last for a bit; I'll see where the board is at 7.11, but I expect it'll be 8.06 before I seriously consider a QB.

Result: B

Driver finished as the #25 WR, a solid but not game-changing performance. Roddy White (+90) was taken the pick after, but I hadn't really considered him, and I'm comfortable with the choice of Driver here, given what we knew at the time.

7.11 Julius Jones, RB SEA

It's probably a good sign that I started a run two rounds in a row; this time it was WRs flying off the board after I chose Driver. The run has beaten WR value down, so as it approaches my pick, the positions are closer to equivalent, with a tier of RBs I have projected within a point of each other leading the pack (Forte, Fred Taylor, Kevin Smith, Julius Jones). I'll always choose a clear starter over a questionable situation, so of this pack I would have preferred Smith, but Forte and Smith went a few picks before me. I don't like Taylor's age or his situation, so I went with Julius Jones, whose situation also sucks, but includes some real upside possibilities. If he gets 200+ carries, he'll be good value here. I also considered Vince Young, who's still out there, but the value isn't there yet. Of the five people selecting before my next pick, two already have 2 QBs and three have one QB already; I'm hoping someone starts a D run and Young hangs around. On the WR side, I considered Reggie Brown, who is near the end of a tier, but with Kevin Curtis in Philly, as well as Desean Jackson pressuring him, he wasn't worth a stretch.

Result: C-

Jones ended as the #50 RB. Best would have been Chester Taylor (+40)

8.06 Ten TMQB (Vince Young) QB TEN

With the draft going very slowly at the turn, I had a lot of time to second-guess my last pick. The only guy I had on my pre-draft list for 8.06 was Vince Young; I have him as the #13 QB overall, and there 20 QBs off the board. My logic in passing on him at 7.11 was that I didn't think the guys at the turn were likely to take him, but I did some sweating waiting for it to come back around. radballs had me worried, but he went TE/RB, and once Biabreakable chose Kitna/DET instead I knew I was fine; Hook had too much need in other areas to take another QB. So I wound up with my guy, who I think people are underrating. His fantasy stats weren't great last year, but most of his NFL stats headed in the right direction, with the exception of TDs. I think the TDs will come; if he winds up with 20+ combined TDs he'll be a huge bargain at this spot. I'll probably hang back on QB for a while now and maybe target KC later. My other option here was Reggie Brown, but I still don't like his situation. It does look like WRs are boiling up to be the best values, so I'm guessing I'll be taking someone like Ted Ginn, Vincent Jackson, Mark Clayton, or Reggie Williams with my next pick.

Result: D

Another whiff on player evaluation. Now, I am not going to call this an F, because I don't think I could have predicted the switch to Kerry Collins and how conservative the team became. The winner choice really would have been KC TMQB (+100); I doubt anyone really expected that.

9.11 Ted Ginn WR MIA

Ginn was actually my favorite of the WRs in this tier, so I'm glad to get him. Miami's passing offense will suck, but it seems obvious that Ginn will be the #1 WR there, and he showed some flashes of talent last year. If he catches 70 balls this will be a big win here. Overall, the pickings are getting pretty slim; I must have been hallucinating, because I thought I just saw someone draft Ricky Williams. Before long it might be time to actually take a defense or something like that. I'm starting to worry about QB; I'm a bit surprised that KC went already. Of what's left, I'm probably comfortable with either Baltimore or Oakland, and one of those is likely to be left to the end, so I might just sit on QB at this point. Depends on whether people grab one of those two soon. It's pretty dang early to be running out of QBs.

Result: B

Ginn finished as WR#33, and definitely represented value here. There was no one taken within a round who I would rather have had.

10.06 Jerious Norwood RB ATL

We're running out of interesting positional players; at this pick I had only Norwood and a kicker in my pre-draft list. (Defenses are insufficiently differentiated--I can wait). I'd also considered Ray Rice, but that's really an ambulance-chasing pick (and he didn't exactly light it up in his first preseason game). Norwood won't be a starter unless Turner gets injured, but he had almost 900 total yards last year as a spot player, and his 1 TD was an anomaly. He should get 100 carries and another 30 receptions, which should equate to at least 800 yards. He's the top of the list of backup RBs with scoring potential. The top non-RB prospect was Ernest Wilford, who I don't want to double up with Ginn. We're nearly out of legit NFL starting WRs. There's a long way to go until my next pick; I expect I'll wind up with a defense or kicker unless there's QB pressure--at QB, the two I want to avoid are Atlanta and Miami. At TE I'll probably target Leonard Pope a few rounds later, but at this level they're all pretty much identical.

Result: B

Norwood finished as RB#39, a solid performance down here.

11.11 Nick Folk K DAL

The QB situation is in equilibrium; there are two left who I'd be OK with (MIA and BAL), and two who I really want to avoid (CHI and ATL). There's only one guy picking between my next two picks, so there's no reason for me to take a QB now. The TEs are all equivalent. I've already got four RBs so no sense chasing crap value at RB46+. That leaves prospect WRs, D and K. My favorite WR down here is James Jones, but I don't want to double up with Driver. I also like Justin McCareins, who I would like to double up with Young, but I can get him late. There's nothing compelling there, so I'm looking at K and D. Nick Folk is at the top of my K board; the playoff prospects of Ks and Ds matter more than other positions, because you know they'll play even in week 16/17. Dallas should be a playoff team scoring a lot of points, and Folk kicked well. My top D is the Raiduhs, led by my man Nnamdi Asomugha, but I think I can get the Raiders later, and they're not a playoff team, I really don't see a lot of other interesting things to choose from.

Result: C

Folk wound up as the #23 kicker, mostly due to circumstance. That's the way kickers go. The #7 kicker was only 30 points more, so there's not much differentiation anyway. I probably should have waited, although none of the positional players I was targeting did much, either. Kevin Walter would have been the best pick, but I think that's result merchanting.

12.06 Drew Bennett WR STL

Not much has changed since my last pick, except James Jones went off the list. I'm glad to still have a solid starting WR at this point. St. Louis isn't what it once was, but Bulger is a good QB and Bennett has the potential for some big games. He has to be value at WR63. I also considered Nate Kaeding, who actually topped my DVBD list, but Bennett is differentiated more from the WRs remaining than Kaeding is from the Ks remaining. Oakland D is at the tops of my D list, but they should still be there in a round or two. It's unlikely that both Anarchy and joffer will take QBs this round, so I should be safe passing on QB.

Result: I

Could have been OK, but got injured. It happens.

13.11 Deion Branch WR SEA

Defenses started flying off the board, so I was sweating waiting for my pick; I have Oakland as the last remaining defense in its tier, with a sizeable dropoff to the next tier. Unfortunately they got taken two picks before me, so I was stuck for a pick; I don't see much difference between the Ds available, and for K I'd rather wait a round or two for Longwell anyway. I started looking at the available players and realized that Branch was still out there. In this format, I like shooting for a guy like Branch way down here; he may be ready for game 1, and even if not, should be significantly productive when he comes back, especially with Engram out. To have even an outside possibility of 1000 yards down here at WR70 should be pretty good value. That fills my flex; I just need a TE now.

Result: C

He actually finished as WR71; par value. I should have taken Longwell, who finished as K#3. That could have been a 160-point swing.

14.06 Vishante Shiancoe TE MIN

I was annoyed to see Leonard Pope go; I would have considered him here. And then I was positively peeved to see Longwell go; I always want Longwell on my team as a token Golden Bear, but there was no way I was ready to take him as the #6 kicker off the board, not with that crappy offense. With Pope gone, I started to look at the rest of the TEs, and saw that Shiancoe was probably the best positioned of them (with the possible exception of Alex Smith, but he's from Stanford.) Ds are undifferentiated, there are a ton of kickers, and my QBs are still on the board, so I went with the TE. It's definitely looking like I'll be taking a D in the last round, maybe the last two rounds depending on what happens with QBs.

Result: A

I got lucky with this one, as he finished as the #12 TE and the last of the top tier (outscored #13 by 20+ points).

15.11 Mike Nugent K NYJ

A bunch of kickers flew off the boards this round. Kickers at this level are not very interesting, but the important thing is that you get a kicker who is going to have the job all year. It doesn't matter whether he scores 90 or 100 points, just that he doesn't score zero. So I like taking my second kicker before I'm choosing between questionable situations, like Grammatica in NO or Tynes in NY. Nugent is a solid kicker on an offense that should be better this year.

Result: I

This was annoying--a season-ending kicker injury? Feely didn't exactly blow everyone away, but he did score 115 points I could have used. I was right not to wait on the NO and NYG situations, at least.

16.06 Miami TMQB (Pennington) QB MIA

In a 16-team total points league, when choosing between otherwise equivalent players, choose the one with the highest variance. I already have Ginn, so this pick increases my variance. Pennington is a lot better than anything this team had at QB last year, so I'm optimistic that they'll both be successful relative to their draft positions. All the defenses left are crap, so I figured I might as well leave them for my last two picks; I don't think Pennington would have lasted to 17.11. I think that Baltimore would score more if Boller were to start all year, but I have a feeling they're going to pull Boller for one of the younger guys, who is likely to suck.

Result: B+

Finding the #14 TMQB down here was a pretty big win. The Ravens, Bears, and Falcons weren't bad, either, but I did choose the best one remaining.

17.11 Cincinatti D DEF CIN

It's a defense. It has a token Cal player (Deltha O'Neal) and they'll get some turnovers.

Result: B

They finished as #19.

18.06 Atlanta D DEF ATL

It's a defense. It will likely suck, but what do you want in the 18th round?

Result: C

They finished as #23. The Dolphins D, my other choice, finished #10 (+56)

Overall: C

I did great in round 1 and quite well in the second half of the draft. I lost the league in rounds 2-8, when I whiffed on five picks out of seven. Those were mostly player-evaluation whiffs, rather than injuries. If I made better choices in three out of those five rounds, I could have won the league. (For example, I plausibly could have had Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Dwayne Bowe instead of Chad Johnson, Jamal Lewis, and Roy Williams).

In a frozen-roster format, you have to come out of the gate with a solid lineup. I made some good choices but some bad choices, and wound up sitting in the middle of the pack all year.

One thing to note is that I stocked up on Miami Dolphins. I think they were dropping partly because people overrate the value of preseason playoff prospects. If you'd told Yudkin that his stable of Patriots would be sitting home while my Dolphins were getting postseason points, he'd have had you committed. But the NFL is unpredictable, so don't put too much stock in it.

Looking forward to making better selections next year!

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Nice breakdown Cal. It's always a good thing to go back and see what you've done. I need to do this more often, but you really took it to another level by comparing your opportunity cost picks.

I really like this format just because it's so different from everything else.

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Entering the season, I really thought I could be a contender.

1.02 Patriots, New England NEP TMQB (Drafted QB1, Ranked QB10)

The season took a turn for the worst 7 minutes in with Brady going down for the year. That put a crimp on the other Pats players I took as well. Would still have been a decent outcome if the Pats made the playoffs and played say 3 more games, as they could have ranked in the Top 3 or 4 if they got to the AFCC.

2.15 31. Anarchy99 Welker, Wes NEP WR (Drafted WR11, Ranked WR13)

Still did ok. Would have vaulted up to the Top 5 range with a playoff birth and subsequent run.

3.02 34. Anarchy99 Burress, Plaxico NYG WR (Drafted WR12, Ranked WR64)

Maybe there's something to shooting the messanger and not the message. Certainly you can't draft based on who runs around with guns.

4.15 63. Anarchy99 Maroney, Laurence NEP RB (Drafted RB18, Ranked RB113)

I'm noticing a trend of guys that for whatever reason didn't end up the year on an active roster . . .

5.02 66. Anarchy99 Graham, Earnest TBB RB (Drafted RB19, Ranked RB45)

My kingdom for a healthy team!

6.15 95. Anarchy99 Chambers, Chris SDC WR (Drafted WR33, Ranked WR51)

Started out hot . . . but got hurt and never regained his production.

7.02 98. Anarchy99 Watson, Ben NEP TE (Drafted TE16, Ranked TE36)

ANother banged up, under performing Patriot.

8.15 127. Anarchy99 Jackson, Vincent SDC WR (Drafted WR41, Ranked WR18)

FINALLY someone that did better than expected.

9.02 130. Anarchy99 Johnson, Bryant SFO WR (Drafted WR43, Ranked WR59)

Thought he would be the SF #1 but never materialized.

10.15 159. Anarchy99 Packers, Green Bay GBP (Drafted DEF11, Ranked DEF13)

Another team that in making the playoffs could have been in the 7-10 range.

11.02 162. Anarchy99 Patten, David NOS WR (Drafted WR52, Ranked WR118)

I sure had the knack for getting guys that got hurt. Sure, he may not have been a major piece of the puzzle in NO, but not playing certainly got me a ton of zeroes.

12.15 191. Anarchy99 Watson, Kenny CIN RB (Drafted RB53, Ranked RB 130)

Never say him getting released coming.

13.02 194. Anarchy99 Clark, Desmond CHI TE (Drafted TE26, Ranked TE27)

Thought he'd play a much bigger role.

14.15 223. Anarchy99 Dawson, Phil CLE PK (Drafted PK11, Ranked PK22)

Knew CLE would not be as good offensively . . . hust not THIS bad.

15.02 226. Anarchy99 Ward, Derrick NYG RB (Drafted RB60, Ranked RB23)

My one good value pick for the year. Golf clap.

16.15 255. Anarchy99 Hanson, Jason DET PK (Drafted PK28, Ranked PK27)

Still beats not having a kicker for the year.

17.02 258. Anarchy99 Ravens, Baltimore BAL TMQB (Drafted QB30, Ranked QB17)

Certainly a much better investment than NE TMQB.

18.15 287. Anarchy99 Dolphins, Miami MIA Def (Drafted DEF32, Ranked DEF10)

Had no choice on this pick, so it turned out to be a gift.

Will have to absorb and see what I would do/have done differently.

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BTW JWBFasano 16th TE, Gaines 35th.Was it Alex Smith? (32nd 9 points more than Gaines) or Becht? (75th TE) that we were debating?Miami's 24th and 16th TE production WAS impressive and along the lines of my prediction for Fasano but I soooo didn't see it being split between two that closely. Even if I didn't type it, I'd have thought one TE with the clear majority and another sorta scrub or fill-in. If a Miami TE leaves in FA, I'll grab the other in FF next year- probably too early too.Gaines improved some since I posted that he stunk but .....I haven't botherred to research why two goose-eggs the last two weeks. Was he hurt? benched? If only he would have crossed 32 then I could "boast" that he was the worst starter, now backups were better.

Well, just for the record, here were the things I criticized about your draft:1. Taking the Cincy team QB at 2.14.2. Taking Harrison at 5.3.3. Taking Fasano and Gaines as your two mandatory TEs.4. Taking Leonard in the 14th as your flex player. I cited Smith as an example of a better flex player taken in the 17th.I'd say I was right on 1, 2, and 4. You were right about your TEs. The other thing was you said you wouldn't draft Alex Smith in a 25 round draft. He finished with 87 points, ahead of many other players drafted in our 18 round draft, so I think you were pretty clearly off base on that.Of course, other than Smith, you didn't criticize my draft. And there was plenty of good criticism material there. :loco:
I still can't stand Smith and wouldn't draft him. Right or wrong(or maybe live by the sword die by the sword) I'd rather someone with upside than his predictable low #s. What'd I say 300 and 2 TDs and he got 380 and 3? That's not so off.There's something with this that also just leans toward the utter lack of productivity or depth of TEs in FF in a deep draft. Regardless I was more boisterous about it and thus more wrong than just what we mentioned here.As I said earlier, I was fairly close on Leonard. As one of those things you just know, Jackson whining with a sore groin or hammy(can't recall, I think groin) in camp after having missed (then)last year-the O line not so good....I just knew a backup would get time. They did but by that point Leonard was hurt. I like the kid and think there's more FF points from him in the future. I don't understand the flex stuff today. Like why is he the flex when everyone on the roster scores but, it's 2am and I haven't thought of the roster requirements in 4? months, since the last time I didn't follow that comment :loco: Have to agree to disagree on Carson. IMO I'm as wrong as David for picking Brady who got hurt. It's a bad pick because he got hurt but there's an almost mulligan feel to it when there's no waiver wire available to try and overcome it. 4k yard QBs just aren't that common. The team part of team QB is pretty useless when the backup stinks. Unfortunately I remember Ryan doing very well in one game(or maybe just one half) for the Rams. To be able to complete a pass to 3 of the better WRs in the NFL really shouldn't have been that difficult. Somewhere in here too is me getting stuck with an organization that is just crumbling so quickly after they finally built a decent team(or O), just self destructing into the laughing stock they seem destinned to be again and I was along for the ride. That feeling that sentiment....I'd bet big $(if it were possible) that Carson completely changes it back to hope in 09. He is everything to that franchise, probably moreso than we knew. I'd probably pick a guy like Harrison there every chance I got. Lock HOFer, people might be predicting his demise too early....won't come around too often but next time I would probably do the same thing-the ceiling on that risk is so super high I had to take a shot.

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I still can't stand Smith and wouldn't draft him. Right or wrong(or maybe live by the sword die by the sword) I'd rather someone with upside than his predictable low #s. What'd I say 300 and 2 TDs and he got 380 and 3? That's not so off.There's something with this that also just leans toward the utter lack of productivity or depth of TEs in FF in a deep draft. Regardless I was more boisterous about it and thus more wrong than just what we mentioned here.

This feels like deja vu all over again. Maybe you just don't remember the league format, given it is unique and we drafted in August. As a flex player taken in the 17th round, Smith was a good value. If you can't see that, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.

As I said earlier, I was fairly close on Leonard. As one of those things you just know, Jackson whining with a sore groin or hammy(can't recall, I think groin) in camp after having missed (then)last year-the O line not so good....I just knew a backup would get time. They did but by that point Leonard was hurt. I like the kid and think there's more FF points from him in the future. I don't understand the flex stuff today. Like why is he the flex when everyone on the roster scores but, it's 2am and I haven't thought of the roster requirements in 4? months, since the last time I didn't follow that comment :lmao:

I guess you don't remember the league rules on this. The league requires 2 Team QBs, 4 RBs, 5 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 Ks, 2 Defenses, and 1 flex player, which can be RB, WR, or TE. Leonard was the 5th RB you drafted, which made him your flex player.

Have to agree to disagree on Carson. IMO I'm as wrong as David for picking Brady who got hurt. It's a bad pick because he got hurt but there's an almost mulligan feel to it when there's no waiver wire available to try and overcome it. 4k yard QBs just aren't that common. The team part of team QB is pretty useless when the backup stinks. Unfortunately I remember Ryan doing very well in one game(or maybe just one half) for the Rams. To be able to complete a pass to 3 of the better WRs in the NFL really shouldn't have been that difficult. Somewhere in here too is me getting stuck with an organization that is just crumbling so quickly after they finally built a decent team(or O), just self destructing into the laughing stock they seem destinned to be again and I was along for the ride. That feeling that sentiment....I'd bet big $(if it were possible) that Carson completely changes it back to hope in 09. He is everything to that franchise, probably moreso than we knew.

The problem wasn't necessarily in drafting the Bengals Team QB, it was in drafting them at 2.14 as the 5th Team QB drafted. There was virtually no way you could get value from that pick.

I'd probably pick a guy like Harrison there every chance I got. Lock HOFer, people might be predicting his demise too early....won't come around too often but next time I would probably do the same thing-the ceiling on that risk is so super high I had to take a shot.

Agree to disagree on this, as with the rest of it, it seems. I'm glad to hear you'll do the same thing next year, and take Harrison in the 5th again. :bs:Edited to make this readable since the number of quotes has been restricted since it was posted.

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re-reading what I wrote late at night, I left out something relatively important "but not necessarily the same round". I'd like to think (like everyone else) I learn from my mistakes.

I wouldn't take Harrison in the 5th knowing he's dropped a peg or three as a WR.

What I was saying was a lock HOFer just on the cusp of possibly winding down or maybe having one more good year. IMO Harrison won't have that in him in 09 and I can't think of another lock HOFer we could discuss for 09 so, it wouldn't happen in 09.

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Re-Smith

as a backup TE I feel I was wrong

as a flex I don't or maybe I mean I don't want to ever think as such. While we all hope for some gem in the 17th round or later, (since flex opens up a few of positions and not TE) I'd like to think I can get a player that gets more than 250(?) and 3 TDs for the year. Earlier I said how he is predictably low. I would rather someyoungWR that starts 2 games and winds up with 250 and 3 than him. The chance of there being more from the WR seems more likely than Smith. I think you "have to" think your 17th pick is going to get more than 375 or at least hope so. I'd rather swing for the fences I guess.

2005 23 TAM TE 16 10 41 367 9.0 2 24 2.6 22.9 367 2 0

2006 24 TAM te 14 7 35 250 7.1 3 27 2.5 17.9 250 3 1

2007 25 TAM TE 14 14 32 385 12.0 3 33 2.3 27.5 385 3 0

2008 26 TAM 11 21 250 11.9 3 34 1.9 22.7 250 3 0

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Have to agree to disagree on Carson. IMO I'm as wrong as David for picking Brady who got hurt. It's a bad pick because he got hurt but there's an almost mulligan feel to it when there's no waiver wire available to try and overcome it. 4k yard QBs just aren't that common. The team part of team QB is pretty useless when the backup stinks. Unfortunately I remember Ryan doing very well in one game(or maybe just one half) for the Rams. To be able to complete a pass to 3 of the better WRs in the NFL really shouldn't have been that difficult. Somewhere in here too is me getting stuck with an organization that is just crumbling so quickly after they finally built a decent team(or O), just self destructing into the laughing stock they seem destinned to be again and I was along for the ride. That feeling that sentiment....I'd bet big $(if it were possible) that Carson completely changes it back to hope in 09. He is everything to that franchise, probably moreso than we knew.

The problem wasn't necessarily in drafting the Bengals Team QB, it was in drafting them at 2.14 as the 5th Team QB drafted. There was virtually no way you could get value from that pick.
Well yeah you're right, it wasn't about value more just being sure(wrong) I got a good player and not "hope" so early. Carson was a very very good bet to be a 4k yard QB in a league that the QB scores well in. There was some (wrong) safety to the pick as well. All in all, progressively I've been drafting QBs earlier the last couple years and not following that tried and true method of drafting one late. That's been a mistake of mine lately.Carson with 3836 and 32TDs or 4035 and 28 TDs or 4131 and 26TDs(his last 3 years) would have been fine by me there. I imagine the Housh and Johnson owners were displeased as well even if just to a degree.I'd have to go back and look at the draft but just guessing by the "2.14" and what comes to mind was available in most drafts, wouldn't you consider a 4k yard QB(not nec Carson) with 2 awesome WRs and another super talented WR at 2.14 JWB? Well, this one I guess I can't wholly say I wouldn't do again. Chances are one of the WRs will be gone and or the Oline or RB situation won't make me feel comfy but as of now I think I might take him there again(this one pick).

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Re-Smithas a backup TE I feel I was wrongas a flex I don't or maybe I mean I don't want to ever think as such. While we all hope for some gem in the 17th round or later, (since flex opens up a few of positions and not TE) I'd like to think I can get a player that gets more than 250(?) and 3 TDs for the year. Earlier I said how he is predictably low. I would rather someyoungWR that starts 2 games and winds up with 250 and 3 than him. The chance of there being more from the WR seems more likely than Smith. I think you "have to" think your 17th pick is going to get more than 375 or at least hope so. I'd rather swing for the fences I guess.2005 23 TAM TE 16 10 41 367 9.0 2 24 2.6 22.9 367 2 0 2006 24 TAM te 14 7 35 250 7.1 3 27 2.5 17.9 250 3 1 2007 25 TAM TE 14 14 32 385 12.0 3 33 2.3 27.5 385 3 0 2008 26 TAM 11 21 250 11.9 3 34 1.9 22.7 250 3 0

Two things on this.First, I took Smith at 17.8. You have to consider that 83 WRs were off the board at that point. Antonio Bryant and Josh Reed were still available and went afterwards, and both of them were much better than Smith... But the other 4 WRs that went after Smith were Andre Davis, Limas Sweed, Jacoby Jones, and Justin McCareins. Smith outscored all of them, most by a very large margin. So swinging for the fences with a WR had a fairly low likelihood of resulting in more points than drafting Smith.Second, from the outset of our discussion on this, going all the way back to August, you have been focused on yards and TDs. But in this league, TEs get 2 points per reception, WRs get 1 point per reception, and RBs get none. So you can't just think in terms of yards and TDs. 2 points per reception is huge... almost half of Smith's value came from his receptions.And this brings us back to why IMO you should not have reached for Leonard in the 14th round. Even if you picked the right backup RB in STL, Pittman, you would have only gotten 42.4 points, despite the fact that Jackson missed 4 full games and part of at least one other. WRs and TEs offer more potential late due to the PPR scoring. Now, if you hit your home run, as a couple owners did with Mewelde Moore and Tim Hightower in the last couple of rounds, it works out great. But, again, it's a low percentage play IMO.

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Have to agree to disagree on Carson. IMO I'm as wrong as David for picking Brady who got hurt. It's a bad pick because he got hurt but there's an almost mulligan feel to it when there's no waiver wire available to try and overcome it. 4k yard QBs just aren't that common. The team part of team QB is pretty useless when the backup stinks. Unfortunately I remember Ryan doing very well in one game(or maybe just one half) for the Rams. To be able to complete a pass to 3 of the better WRs in the NFL really shouldn't have been that difficult. Somewhere in here too is me getting stuck with an organization that is just crumbling so quickly after they finally built a decent team(or O), just self destructing into the laughing stock they seem destinned to be again and I was along for the ride. That feeling that sentiment....I'd bet big $(if it were possible) that Carson completely changes it back to hope in 09. He is everything to that franchise, probably moreso than we knew.

The problem wasn't necessarily in drafting the Bengals Team QB, it was in drafting them at 2.14 as the 5th Team QB drafted. There was virtually no way you could get value from that pick.
Well yeah you're right, it wasn't about value more just being sure(wrong) I got a good player and not "hope" so early. Carson was a very very good bet to be a 4k yard QB in a league that the QB scores well in. There was some (wrong) safety to the pick as well.

All in all, progressively I've been drafting QBs earlier the last couple years and not following that tried and true method of drafting one late. That's been a mistake of mine lately.

Carson with 3836 and 32TDs or 4035 and 28 TDs or 4131 and 26TDs(his last 3 years) would have been fine by me there. I imagine the Housh and Johnson owners were displeased as well even if just to a degree.

I'd have to go back and look at the draft but just guessing by the "2.14" and what comes to mind was available in most drafts, wouldn't you consider a 4k yard QB(not nec Carson) with 2 awesome WRs and another super talented WR at 2.14 JWB?

Well, this one I guess I can't wholly say I wouldn't do again. Chances are one of the WRs will be gone and or the Oline or RB situation won't make me feel comfy but as of now I think I might take him there again(this one pick).

On the bolded question, no. I drafted my first QB in the 4th round, and it was a mistake. There are too many spots to fill to go QB early IMO. That's a lesson I learned about this format this season.

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I think it's fallacious to talk about getting value from a "flex player." In this format, one guy could take TEs in the first three rounds, filling his flex spot in round 3, while another guy fills out his entire roster and takes his sixth WR in the 18th round. That doesn't really mean that the first guy got more scoring out of his flex spot; it just means that he traded scoring in his flex spot for scoring in one of his other spots. You have to look at the value available on the board in each round, and take the best player available; it doesn't really matter whether the player will go in your flex spot or not.

There's a small opportunity cost lost once you fill your flex spot; after that, your choices start to become more constrained. If you take 3 TEs, you can't take any more, even if a TE is best value.

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I think it's fallacious to talk about getting value from a "flex player." In this format, one guy could take TEs in the first three rounds, filling his flex spot in round 3, while another guy fills out his entire roster and takes his sixth WR in the 18th round. That doesn't really mean that the first guy got more scoring out of his flex spot; it just means that he traded scoring in his flex spot for scoring in one of his other spots. You have to look at the value available on the board in each round, and take the best player available; it doesn't really matter whether the player will go in your flex spot or not.

There's a small opportunity cost lost once you fill your flex spot; after that, your choices start to become more constrained. If you take 3 TEs, you can't take any more, even if a TE is best value.

You may well be right. Do you think the results I posted earlier are due to coincidence, luck, and/or poor drafting?

Here is the scoring for each team's flex player:

There It Is - John Carlson, 10.16 - 202.7 points

Anarchy99 - David Patten, 11.2 - 33.2 points

Bri - Brian Leonard, 14.14 - 0.7 points

Duckboy - Michael Clayton, 13.4 - 92.9 points

joffer - Courtney Taylor, 16.12 - 18.8 points

Old Milwaukee - Josh Reed, 18.11 - 121.7 points

Pimpin' Ain't Easy - Drew Carter, 12.10 - 0 points

Just Win Baby - Alex Smith, 17.8 - 87 points

Jiggyonthehut - Tim Hightower, 17.9 - 156.5 points

Fiddles - Mewelde Moore, 18.7 - 131.8 points

CalBear - Deion Branch, 13.11 - 95.2 points

nittanylion - James Hardy, 14.5 - 29.7 points

Captain Hook - Limas Sweed, 17.13 - 16.4 points

Sinrman - Tatum Bell, 9.14 - 42.6 points

Biabreakable - Ahmad Bradshaw, 10.2 - 51.7 points

radballs - Ernest Wilford, 15.16 - 5.5 points

4. It is a mistake to fill the flex position early. 5 teams filled their flex positions in the first 12 rounds. Only 2 of those 5 teams are projected in the top 8 teams using Dodds' default projections. Ignoring Carter, the other 4 of those flex players are projected by Dodds for an average of 74.6 points in the regular season. The flex players for the 11 teams that filled their flex positions in the last 6 rounds are projected by Dodds for an average of 71.6 points in the regular season. That gap is almost non-existent, and does not account for the points lost by the teams that filled those positions early instead of filling another mandatory position. On top of that, combining #3 above with this point and averaging only those non RB flex players taken in the last 6 rounds, they are projected to average 85.6 points. The point is, the tradeoffs involved in filling a flex position early are not worth it given the WRs and TEs available late.

Only one team that filled its flex position in the first 12 rounds got good value in doing so (There It Is, with Carlson). Conversely, 4 teams that filled their flex positions in the 17th round or later got at least 87 points. 3 of those teams got 121 or more points. Seems like this rule held.
I made two points earlier about the flex players. One was to avoid RBs at flex, since it is less likely to provide good value as the lowest scoring position. I think that fits your assertion that you should just take best player available, since by the time a team has filled all 4 required RBs and is considering a 5th, it is very unlikely a RB is BPA.

The other point was not to fill the flex position early, which probably disagrees somewhat with your assertion. The fact that good value (80+ points) remains in the 17th & 18th rounds suggests that you might consider waiting and filling another position rather than filling the flex spot early, and could potentially get more points that way. Do you disagree with that?

Perhaps in your extreme example (flex TE taken in 3rd vs. flex WR taken in 18th), it is just trading scoring, with a lot of potential points coming from that flex TE. But more often, people don't fill their flex position so early but instead do so in the 10th round or later. At that point, I wonder if the flex value in the end makes it worthwhile to wait.

Obviously, the one exception this year to what I was saying was There It Is, and it could easily be argued that filling his flex with Carlson in the 10th round was the key move in winning the title.

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Interestingly, I not only filled my flex with a RB, but did so late (R17)...and won the league. The other "rule" I breached was the kicker thing, which has been discussed at length (do NOT get caught with only one). It also didn't hurt me, as I only had one starter all year.

:thumbup:

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I made two points earlier about the flex players. One was to avoid RBs at flex, since it is less likely to provide good value as the lowest scoring position. I think that fits your assertion that you should just take best player available, since by the time a team has filled all 4 required RBs and is considering a 5th, it is very unlikely a RB is BPA.The other point was not to fill the flex position early, which probably disagrees somewhat with your assertion. The fact that good value (80+ points) remains in the 17th & 18th rounds suggests that you might consider waiting and filling another position rather than filling the flex spot early, and could potentially get more points that way. Do you disagree with that?

It doesn't matter whether you're taking your fifth or sixth WR in the 17th/18th rounds (or your fourth or fifth RB, or your second or third TE); you should be maximizing value in each round. If everyone else is grabbing RBs and TEs, it may make sense to take your sixth WR early; if there are no WRs or TEs left, take your fifth RB; and if people have forgotten that TEs get 2 ppr in this format, take three TEs early. Probably the typical situation if you're looking for value is that it balances out over time; when you get good value at WR in the third round, someone will start a run, and by the time it gets back to you you'll be looking at value at another position. But I don't think you should avoid a player just because he'll "fill your flex spot," if he represents the best value at your pick.

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Is it time to start working out?

Yes. Great analysis all around btw which should be useful to all of us here, in general and in other leagues.

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