Picking 3rd... Sky Rattlers
Bernard, Rocky SEA DT - 4
Clancy, Kendrick NOS DT - 9
Castillo, Luis SDC DE - 9
Coleman, Kenyon NYJ DE - 5
Hall, James STL DE - 5
Mathis, Robert IND DE - 4
Spicer, Paul JAC DE - 7
Cooper, Stephen SDC LB - 9
Harris, Napoleon MIN LB - 8
Lawson, Manny SFO LB - 9
Thomas, Bryan NYJ LB - 5
Williams, DJ DEN LB - 8
Winborn, Jamie DEN LB - 8
Woodley, LaMarr PIT LB (P) - 6
Bodden, Leigh DET CB - 4
Gamble, Chris CAR CB - 9
Hall, Deangelo OAK CB - 5
Joseph, Johnathan CIN CB - 10
Vasher, Nathan CHI CB (P) - 8
Bullitt, Melvin IND S - 4
Dawkins, Brian PHI S - 7
Hamlin, Ken DAL S - 10
Milloy, Lawyer ATL S - 7
Page, Jarrad KCC S (P) - 6
SR came out of the gate with DJ Williams, a fine cornerstone, a guy who has arrived and is another example of talent eventually finding the opportunity and role to be a IDP stud, although he is greatly benefitted by being the best tackler on a terrible defense.
To start the draft I had predrafted Willis, Williams and Tuck, and I was fully expecting to get Tuck. I knew the value that having a strong DE position would represent, but Bloom put an end to that strategy by taking Mario first. I'm very happy with the consistant top tier output that Williams will be providing
at the 2/3 turn, he went Woodley/Mathis. I was mystified by Woodley and Harrison falling to the late 2nd. I suppose you could cite the Steelers tough second half schedule as a reason to avoid the Steelers OLBs, but to me they are exactly what you want in survivor - a 10 or 15 point play waiting to happen. Mathis was a saavy pick simply because he likely brings 3 or 4 top 10 DE weeks, which are a commodity.
I was shocked when Woodley fell to me at 2.10. He was in my top 5 choices overall. To get him at pick 22 I consider a major steal. I now know that my LBs will be a major strength for me. Mathis was the best DE still on the board and they were going fast and furious so I couldn't wait any longer to grab my first. And Bloom took the only other player that I would have considered in this slot when he grabbed Gibril Wilson a couple picks earlier. Mathis seems to put up a handful of 20-30 point weeks every year. Hopefully he still has a few left in the tank this season.
the 4/5 turn was DHall/Cooper. I was wary of Hall because he has inflated numbers based on being picked on unmercifully. I'm not saying he won't continue to get singled out. I just have a mental block on taking players early whose value is more because of bad play than good play. Cooper is a possible LB1, the week 9 bye was more than offset by him falling to the 5th. If I hadnt been compelled to go DE/DE at my turn I would have taken Cooper.
I'll defend my Hall selection by stating simply that he hasn't scored lower than 10.5 points in any week. Unlike most CBs he's not really a big play guy, he's actually a baseline guy that uses tackles and passes defended as his bread and butter. His baseline this year is simply up around 11-12 points per week with the occaisional big week in the high teens. Cooper as a LB3 on my team is great value. He's a top 15 LB based on average points per week.
6/7 was Gamble/Dawkins. Gamble is a fine pick because even though the big plays have tapered off, he's been compensating with big tackle numbers. I probably would have taken Mikell over Dawkins, but they both merited a 7th as two of the last remaining #1 safeties.
Taking Gamble means I now have two CBs before most teams have even taken their first. Classic IDP drafting strategy states that you don't select CBs high because it's very difficult to predict their production. I've always followed that before but with this unique draft I decided that rule was one that had to be broken. We're in the middle of the season and we're no longer guessing who is getting playing time. The production pattern for these players has a much more tangible reality to it. Hall and Gamble are producing very well this year. There is no obvious reason to think that it will stop. That doesn't mean it can't but the odds are on my side here. So now after 6 picks I have 6 starters who are all averaging 12+ points through 8 weeks this season. Dawkins is basically a safe pick to balance out all the boom/bust guys I have so far.
8/9 was JHall/Bullitt - with Little ailing, Hall was a solid pick. He's not as exciting as Freeney/Dumervil/Carter in terms of explosive weeks, but he'll probably be more consistent. Bullitt was an accident, but one that could be a happy accident. Bob Sanders is no sure thing to stay healthy, and we know that Bullitt can put up top 10 numbers in his stead - not to mention Indy wanting to get him more involved even with Sanders back.
It was at this point in the draft that I felt I started losing control. With my first seven picks I was very excited about each one. There is nothing exciting about James Hall and Melvin Bullitt was a mistake that I hope doesn't cost me too much. I needed to start building my DEs and Hall was someone who'd been getting 6.7 points per week. Not great but at this point no one was going to be a difference maker. What I needed to hope for was to find 4 guys who who put up the rare12-15 point game and hope they don't do it on the same weeks. I was all set to draft Milloy instead of Bullitt here but then talked myself into staying with the younger and riskier type players I had been primarily picking. As explained in an earlier post, I had been drinking because it was my birthday and Bullitt ended up being my pick.
10/11 Milloy/Bodden - Milloy is a fine S2, not too exciting, Bodden is getting by on rep in IDP circles, but in the 11th, he's not a terrible pick since he's not that far removed from his better days.
As I said already I had almost selected Milloy last round and to see him still available made it easy to choose him here. Having to pick this boring safety was my punishment for the Bullitt botch job. But I don't think Bloom is giving Bodden the credit he deserves. He is a 20-30th ranked CB based on average or total points so far this year but he wasn't a starter to begin the year. He is now and for the last 3 weeks he has been a top 10 CB. I feel adding Bodden as my CB3 really sets my ground of CBs are the best in this draft and gives me a cushion at this position that will help balance my weakness at DE.
12/13 Winborn/Bernard - I thought it was a little early to pick Winborn. You can't argue with Boss Bailey's numbers in that spot though, and Winborn also notched a sack before the bye week. In this league, if you liked a player, you couldn't assume others didn't like him too. I just have a mental block against believing in some of these so-so players that put up legit IDP numbers in that Denver defense. Bernard is a fine DT1 with upside.
It's always hard to predict when "early" is in a draft like this. I decided that with Boss Bailey on IR now that Winborn was stepping into a good situation. Bernard has the potential for being a top 5 so I'm happy with him as my primary DT.
14/15 Page/Spicer - Page is banged up and went at a discount. His upside was probably worth the risk in the 14th. Spicer was a nice 15th round pick. He's not a highlight reel guy, but he makes plays with hustle and energy, and he could come on in the 2nd half.
Page is banged up and that means he could either really hurt a position that until this point is probably below average, or he could really turn the tide and save the position overall. Page, Dawkins and Milloy have so far put up top 15 points at safety. Just have to hope that continues. Spicer is another of my DE quad that almost need to behave as a single person.
16/17 Harris/Coleman - meh. Harris has little upside imo. Coleman is a good baseline DE, but they were also available later in the draft.
Harris is moving into the starting MLB spot in Minnesota and he got 115 tackles last year. At round 16 to get a guy with a chance to product like that I'm happy. Coleman is another of the DE squad like Spicer and Hall before him. None exciting but hope they can produce as a tandom.
18/19 Joseph/Lawson - Nice picks and taking advantage of the epidemic of bye players falling too far. Joseph is aggressive and he's already made a huge play this year, and Lawson is underrated because he's been injured.
It was at this point that some players started sliding too far due to their bye week. I picked four straight guys with a bye week to contend with so clearly I decided that the risk was worth it. Joseph makes a great CB4, especially with my first 3 guys. I'm hoping his injuries are behind him and maybe he can start adding some INTs to his scoreline. Lawson is a big play LB when he is healthy. Two or three mid teen scores from him for the entire 8 weeks and I'll consider him a success.
20/21 Clancy/Hamlin - a good baseline DT and baseline safety, more value because of the byes.
I decided to grab my backup DT slightly early because Clancy has been performing like a top 10 at his position. Between him and Rocky Bernard it's really going to be nice getting some solid points from the DT position. I got a 0 for all 8 weeks in the first half of the year due to Kelly Gregg's trip to the IR. Hamlin is a basline guy for me in case Bullitt doesn't get to play much and Page's injury lingers.
22/23 BThomas/Vasher - Bryan Thomas is another perfect survivor LB, considered him over Wimbley, but I already had Bowens. Vasher is a ballhawk. The injury and chance that Graham pushes him back to nickel are risks, but this is a 23rd round pick, so he works.
Here's hoping that Thomas can keep racking up sacks in the last half of the year. If he can finish with another 4 sacks in the last half of the year he'll be a great pick. Vasher is a great value but only if he can push Graham back to his nickel spot. I think Vasher success in year's past should give him the edge to do just that and as a CB5 it's worth the risk.
24 Castillo - A good player, so I cant argue, but I would have preferred a sack artist since you already took a baseline DE in Coleman.
I had Kevin Carter and Antonio Smith predrafted ahead of Castillo but they just didn't make it that far. Atleast he's a starter and so maybe he can get lucky and get 2-3 sacks in the last half of the season.